WEBVTT - Beating The Book: The 85th Masters Preview 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:11.639 Check it on Man No Down. Then Welcome to the 0:00:11.760 --> 0:00:14.720 Beating a Book Podcast, Gil Alegainer. It's our eighty five 0:00:15.040 --> 0:00:19.239 Masters edition with Joe Peter and Brady Cannon. Just a warning, 0:00:19.280 --> 0:00:21.800 because we are here at Stadium Swim Circuit Sports and 0:00:21.840 --> 0:00:24.000 the music is blaring behind us. Might have a few 0:00:24.040 --> 0:00:26.920 audio difficulties at some point in the podcast. We're gonna 0:00:26.920 --> 0:00:29.160 do our best to edit around them. But the gist 0:00:29.240 --> 0:00:30.880 of the whole thing and all the bets will come 0:00:30.920 --> 0:00:33.839 shining through. But just a a little bit of an 0:00:33.840 --> 0:00:36.280 apology in advance from all of us at the Beating 0:00:36.280 --> 0:00:39.199 of the Book Podcast. Enjoy. Welcome to the Beating the 0:00:39.240 --> 0:00:44.600 Book Podcast, Masters Edition, the eighty five Masters live from 0:00:44.640 --> 0:00:48.160 the pool at Circus Sports. Uh, it doesn't get any 0:00:48.200 --> 0:00:52.840 better than this, Gil Alexander along on site with Brady Cannon, 0:00:52.920 --> 0:00:55.360 host of long Shots, the greatest golf betting show there 0:00:55.360 --> 0:00:58.280 ever was at Visa, which you will be hosting not 0:00:58.360 --> 0:01:00.360 only with your co host West Reynolds today, but also 0:01:00.400 --> 0:01:03.320 with a great Scott van Pelt. Yeah, we're really excited 0:01:03.360 --> 0:01:05.640 about that. Scott Van Pelt will be our guest on 0:01:05.720 --> 0:01:08.039 long Shots. Matt Humans will be in studio as well, 0:01:08.080 --> 0:01:10.800 so we'll have the full crew there and UH, couldn't 0:01:10.840 --> 0:01:12.840 really ask for a better guest. He's on the grounds. 0:01:12.840 --> 0:01:15.800 And Augustine, yes, she is um and he's SVP for 0:01:15.800 --> 0:01:19.880 goodness that uh and we are also joined and I 0:01:19.920 --> 0:01:22.280 do mean honor to be joined by the guy who 0:01:22.319 --> 0:01:25.680 literally wrote the book on the Masters. When it comes 0:01:25.720 --> 0:01:29.240 to data that is not public domain data like you 0:01:29.240 --> 0:01:32.560 can find in baseball, say on a fan graphs was 0:01:32.560 --> 0:01:35.640 the twenty nineteen Masters Tour guide for my good friend, 0:01:35.920 --> 0:01:39.560 once upon a time doing other sports, now completely focused 0:01:39.600 --> 0:01:43.000 on golf in his spare time. It's Joe, Peter, how 0:01:43.040 --> 0:01:46.520 you doing, Joe, Hey, guys, Brady and Gil. Great to 0:01:46.880 --> 0:01:49.280 talk to you. And and Brady, that's a great jet 0:01:49.440 --> 0:01:52.080 in SVP. I know you guys know, but maybe some 0:01:52.160 --> 0:01:55.800 of the younger listeners don't. He's ay, he was one 0:01:55.840 --> 0:01:58.120 of the I don't know if he was the original 0:01:58.280 --> 0:02:01.240 or on the original crew, but a long ago and 0:02:01.400 --> 0:02:06.440 your inception Golf Channel host, so he certainly he certainly 0:02:06.440 --> 0:02:09.200 has the golf chops. Yes he was. He was Golf Channel, 0:02:09.200 --> 0:02:13.359 I believe right before ESPN. That's where or something. By 0:02:13.360 --> 0:02:15.160 the way, what year did you what year did you win? 0:02:15.160 --> 0:02:17.480 The MAB five. It was right before Jack turned the 0:02:17.520 --> 0:02:20.200 trick in eighty six, so I'm kind of the forgotten man. 0:02:20.280 --> 0:02:23.440 No one remember that's a good year to pick five. 0:02:24.840 --> 0:02:28.600 Have you remember that year putting the jacket on? Putting 0:02:28.639 --> 0:02:30.600 the jacket on Jack must have been a thrill for you. 0:02:31.000 --> 0:02:32.960 That was that was really even better than winning it. 0:02:33.080 --> 0:02:35.400 That's that was called right, should go back and check 0:02:35.440 --> 0:02:39.679 that footage, Brady? Yeah. Interesting. Alright, Joe, I want to 0:02:39.720 --> 0:02:42.680 start with you, because people who just heard what I said, 0:02:42.680 --> 0:02:43.959 they're like, what do you mean he wrote the book 0:02:44.000 --> 0:02:47.640 on the Masters? UH. For those who didn't hear your 0:02:47.639 --> 0:02:50.400 appearances on a numbers game on Visa when the book 0:02:50.400 --> 0:02:54.040 first came out in UH, please explain to folks sort 0:02:54.040 --> 0:02:56.920 of the journey that led you to the nineteen Masters 0:02:56.919 --> 0:03:02.000 Tour Guide. Yeah, Gil, the it was an early UH 0:03:02.240 --> 0:03:06.480 twenty eighteen UM that I decided. I was that there 0:03:06.560 --> 0:03:09.280 was not as much written about golf analytics as there 0:03:09.320 --> 0:03:12.239 was about baseball, So I pivoted from baseball for golf, 0:03:12.880 --> 0:03:17.120 and when the UH on the Master site that year, 0:03:18.200 --> 0:03:20.600 I noticed, well, just to back up for second um, 0:03:20.639 --> 0:03:24.800 as you know, you know, being analyticstrivan Um Strokes gained 0:03:24.919 --> 0:03:28.600 was the revolution in golf that uh and pioneered by 0:03:29.040 --> 0:03:33.000 Mark Brody, who uses the p g A data to 0:03:33.200 --> 0:03:37.480 create the metrics that you know, golf analytics. UH people 0:03:37.560 --> 0:03:40.560 use whether you're your BFS or or a better or 0:03:40.600 --> 0:03:44.080 just a fan of the sport. That really helped um 0:03:44.320 --> 0:03:47.520 change the way we looked at you know, it updated 0:03:47.560 --> 0:03:51.160 things from dreams and regulation and punched per round um. 0:03:51.360 --> 0:03:55.160 And but one of the limitations of it was if 0:03:55.200 --> 0:03:57.320 the event was not a p g A Tour event 0:03:57.840 --> 0:04:00.520 like all of the majors at the U for a 0:04:00.560 --> 0:04:03.400 long time, Uh, there was no data uh that that 0:04:03.640 --> 0:04:05.760 you you know, here we love this data, but then 0:04:05.760 --> 0:04:08.400 the majors come and we couldn't use it. And uh 0:04:08.440 --> 0:04:11.560 it turns out that because the PGA Tour don't run 0:04:11.800 --> 0:04:15.920 those those events, well, it turns out on the master's site, 0:04:16.000 --> 0:04:19.159 I noticed in that there was a catalog of every 0:04:19.160 --> 0:04:23.080 shot taken. So I input them all twenty thousand plus shots. 0:04:23.120 --> 0:04:27.240 I I input it after the events and wrote a 0:04:27.240 --> 0:04:32.680 book really the annually and put that's right, and kind 0:04:32.680 --> 0:04:35.559 of wrote a book of previewing the twenty nineteen event, 0:04:35.760 --> 0:04:38.000 and you know, really, so it was the first time 0:04:38.000 --> 0:04:41.080 that readers and golf fans in general got to see 0:04:41.360 --> 0:04:44.520 you know how Patrick read won. Um, you know who 0:04:44.600 --> 0:04:47.520 was actually best tat of green at that event. Um. 0:04:47.680 --> 0:04:51.240 And I've been doing it since I since I've been 0:04:51.240 --> 0:04:54.480 able to backfill a couple of other years, and I'm 0:04:54.480 --> 0:04:58.720 gonna be having a larger book come out, hopefully pre 0:04:58.839 --> 0:05:02.600 Christmas that will really give the entire strokes gained history 0:05:02.800 --> 0:05:05.560 at the Masters, which will cover about six years. Well 0:05:05.720 --> 0:05:08.840 we'll cover six years sixteen twenty one. So that's that's 0:05:08.839 --> 0:05:11.000 what I'm working on now, and that's how the first 0:05:11.000 --> 0:05:14.479 book got written. Hey Joe, real quick for the viewers 0:05:14.480 --> 0:05:18.120 and the listeners, would you quickly explain exactly what is 0:05:18.200 --> 0:05:21.320 strokes gained and greens in regulation? That's pretty obvious you 0:05:21.360 --> 0:05:24.560 hit the green in regulation, but what is strokes gained 0:05:24.640 --> 0:05:29.359 really defined? For the statutistic statisticians? Sure well, as you 0:05:29.400 --> 0:05:31.960 know Brady and a lot of golfings though greens in 0:05:32.040 --> 0:05:34.719 regulation like that, that sort of standard stack can be 0:05:35.080 --> 0:05:37.839 highly misleading. You know somebody that hits an iron shot 0:05:37.839 --> 0:05:41.839 from one eight to within four ft um and you 0:05:41.880 --> 0:05:44.800 know on on a second shot on a far five, say, 0:05:44.880 --> 0:05:48.080 and someone who you know hits uh, hits the third 0:05:48.080 --> 0:05:49.960 shot on a far five, you know, it chips it 0:05:50.000 --> 0:05:52.240 from twenty yards off the green and and gets it 0:05:52.279 --> 0:05:54.960 to within fifteen ft. They both have a green in regulation, 0:05:55.040 --> 0:05:58.919 but obviously the former shot is much much more valuable 0:05:59.360 --> 0:06:02.760 uh than the matter. So what Green's and what strokes 0:06:02.800 --> 0:06:06.000 gain does is thanks to the to the framework of 0:06:06.080 --> 0:06:10.040 that mark Brody created. Uh. It essentially takes every shot 0:06:10.279 --> 0:06:14.360 and judges it against a baseline of all other pros. 0:06:14.400 --> 0:06:16.800 And I always think the simplest way to to sort 0:06:16.839 --> 0:06:19.000 of illustrated is to think of an eight foot pot. 0:06:19.640 --> 0:06:23.839 Most golf fans know that pros touring pros make fifty 0:06:24.279 --> 0:06:27.320 of their eight foot pots. So if a pro is 0:06:27.400 --> 0:06:31.080 facing an eight foot put, um it essentially has an 0:06:31.680 --> 0:06:35.400 expectation of, uh, you know, of of one and a 0:06:35.440 --> 0:06:37.880 half strokes, right, he's gonna make it fifty percent at 0:06:37.880 --> 0:06:39.680 a time, and the other fifty percent at the time 0:06:39.720 --> 0:06:42.760 he'll two pot because you know, for these purposes, they 0:06:42.839 --> 0:06:46.520 never three pots from eight feet. So if a golfer 0:06:46.560 --> 0:06:48.479 makes an eight foot pot, he has picked up a 0:06:48.480 --> 0:06:51.560 half stroke where he has gained a half stroke against 0:06:51.560 --> 0:06:54.800 the benchmark of the field. And if he two puts 0:06:54.800 --> 0:06:56.919 from eight feet he's lost a half stroke. And you 0:06:57.000 --> 0:06:59.320 essentially do that with every stroke. You can banks mark 0:06:59.400 --> 0:07:02.280 every drive, memory, approach and every time you saw them 0:07:02.279 --> 0:07:04.880 all up in the end. And that's uh and and 0:07:04.960 --> 0:07:08.440 now you have a much more granular uh and to me, 0:07:08.520 --> 0:07:11.360 because I like data to tell stories, you get a 0:07:11.440 --> 0:07:16.560 much better story of what happened during around And you know, 0:07:16.840 --> 0:07:18.800 by the time you put a number of rounds together 0:07:18.800 --> 0:07:21.240 and number of tournaments together, now you have stories on 0:07:21.240 --> 0:07:24.120 each coffer skill sets and how they different differ and 0:07:24.120 --> 0:07:28.520 as you know, Brady, different tournaments for reward different skills. 0:07:28.520 --> 0:07:31.320 So it's a very useful tool and I just think 0:07:31.360 --> 0:07:34.840 it's fascinating and fun. This gives us entree. By the way, 0:07:34.880 --> 0:07:37.720 before we get to our specific Masters thoughts for this year, 0:07:39.280 --> 0:07:43.080 probably the greatest thing in your Master's Tour Guide was 0:07:43.120 --> 0:07:46.960 in doing this research on strokes gained analysis specifically for 0:07:46.960 --> 0:07:51.840 the Masters, you stumbled upon maybe the greatest single stat 0:07:52.640 --> 0:07:56.240 um in modern golf history. And we're not even sure 0:07:56.400 --> 0:07:58.600 to this day if the person who is at the 0:07:58.640 --> 0:08:01.440 center of this stat and the streak is aware of it, 0:08:01.480 --> 0:08:04.400 could you explain to people what that is? Sure? And 0:08:04.440 --> 0:08:07.400 I will tell you before I publish this December, I 0:08:07.400 --> 0:08:10.600 will try uh to reach out to this person in 0:08:10.760 --> 0:08:13.840 question and get his thoughts on it. Were. Of course, 0:08:13.880 --> 0:08:17.480 referring to Tiger Woods and um strokes gained is a 0:08:17.680 --> 0:08:21.840 familiar I read the book and I'm sure I'll remember. Okay, 0:08:21.920 --> 0:08:24.880 all right, go ahead, I'm sorry, Joe. Yeah, so even 0:08:24.920 --> 0:08:27.880 pro golfers, I think I think it was maybe Stewart 0:08:27.960 --> 0:08:31.760 cink Wu who referred to strokes gained as a cruel mistress. 0:08:31.960 --> 0:08:35.520 You know, it is a it is a brutal machine 0:08:35.760 --> 0:08:39.959 because you are always being judged against your fellow pros. 0:08:40.000 --> 0:08:42.680 So if you shoot a three under sixty nine, you know, 0:08:42.720 --> 0:08:45.520 on of course, but the field shoots sixty eight a half, 0:08:45.559 --> 0:08:49.120 you have actually lost a half stroke to the field. Um. 0:08:49.200 --> 0:08:53.640 So picking up positive strokes gained each round is an accomplishment. 0:08:53.920 --> 0:08:57.199 Now for the most elite players, they expect to do it. 0:08:57.720 --> 0:09:02.160 But you know, you know, somebody goes six, six, seventy eight. 0:09:02.360 --> 0:09:04.800 You know, even if they're rory, that seventy three round 0:09:04.800 --> 0:09:07.320 probably lost strokes to the field. Well, it turns out 0:09:07.720 --> 0:09:12.600 Tiger Woods went an entire three sixty five day period 0:09:12.760 --> 0:09:17.160 plus without a round losing strokes to the field and 0:09:17.559 --> 0:09:21.560 he was within one The punch line of the story 0:09:21.720 --> 0:09:25.000 is in the year two thousand, he was within one hole, 0:09:25.320 --> 0:09:28.080 you know, one round and one hole the eight hole 0:09:28.520 --> 0:09:33.800 of his final round of the year, and he uh 0:09:33.880 --> 0:09:37.280 and and to put together what I call the perfect year, 0:09:37.480 --> 0:09:42.160 the perfect p g A tour season, and he missed it. 0:09:42.200 --> 0:09:45.720 And our friend Chris Felika actually called in and I 0:09:45.720 --> 0:09:48.920 couldn't find the scorecard. And he when we first told 0:09:48.920 --> 0:09:52.160 this story, he called in and uh, you know, showed 0:09:52.200 --> 0:09:54.720 us that Tiger actually went like double bubble to tow 0:09:55.240 --> 0:09:58.360 at Balderrama in Spain at a World Golf Championship of 0:09:58.440 --> 0:10:01.480 that to end the two thousand the season, and it 0:10:01.679 --> 0:10:05.360 broke his his It was over ninety rounds that he'd 0:10:05.400 --> 0:10:08.360 had of strokes gained on the field, And to me, 0:10:08.840 --> 0:10:11.880 it's even more impressive than his hundred and forty plus 0:10:12.520 --> 0:10:16.959 um made cuts in a row, because uh, to make cuts, 0:10:17.600 --> 0:10:19.560 to make that many cuts in row, what essentially means 0:10:19.559 --> 0:10:22.960 you never had a bead round on Thursday or Friday. 0:10:23.160 --> 0:10:27.480 To go ninety rounds in a row without you know, 0:10:27.520 --> 0:10:30.920 picking up strokes on the field essentially means you never 0:10:31.000 --> 0:10:35.400 had a blow up whole for ninety some rounds because 0:10:35.520 --> 0:10:38.240 you know, you go, you put a triple on the card. 0:10:39.440 --> 0:10:41.840 It's now very hard to gain strokes on the on 0:10:41.880 --> 0:10:44.640 the field for a round, and he did it for 0:10:44.920 --> 0:10:49.319 and I think that's the most um and what you 0:10:49.440 --> 0:10:52.040 start when you start going through data, you realize that 0:10:52.240 --> 0:10:54.880 at any time a Golford gets to twenty rounds, it's 0:10:54.880 --> 0:10:58.079 an amazing accomplishment, you know. And Tiger got up to ninety. 0:10:58.120 --> 0:11:01.240 I think the second highest is something like Marco Mirror 0:11:01.280 --> 0:11:06.160 at thirty or thirty one. Yeah, something like that. And 0:11:06.320 --> 0:11:09.480 it's just it'll never be broke. Joe. You probably remember 0:11:09.640 --> 0:11:12.320 it was, I believe last year on tour. It was 0:11:12.360 --> 0:11:15.920 a big deal because Victor Hovland lad the field and 0:11:16.040 --> 0:11:18.760 strokes gained Teta Green for three weeks in a row 0:11:19.240 --> 0:11:24.120 and that was monument three weeks in a row. So interestingly, 0:11:24.240 --> 0:11:26.360 that did not make the Tiger documentary. Joe, I was 0:11:26.360 --> 0:11:28.239 waiting for it the whole time when I was watching, 0:11:28.240 --> 0:11:31.120 When is the Strokes game thing coming? Alright, guys, So 0:11:31.520 --> 0:11:33.840 the five version of the Masters, it is the one 0:11:34.480 --> 0:11:36.679 of our majors, of our four majors where we actually 0:11:37.160 --> 0:11:40.040 play on the same course. We talked about this obviously 0:11:40.080 --> 0:11:42.319 every year. This year is a little different because we're 0:11:42.320 --> 0:11:44.960 coming off the pandemic Masters, which was played in November. 0:11:45.840 --> 0:11:48.679 Very different. Dustin Johnson with a twenty under. We obviously 0:11:48.720 --> 0:11:51.040 never see scores like that at the Masters, and Cameron 0:11:51.120 --> 0:11:53.880 Smith famously the first guy to ever have four rounds 0:11:53.960 --> 0:11:57.760 in the sixties. Now that I guess the first question is, um, 0:11:57.800 --> 0:12:00.400 how much do we read into that November version of 0:12:00.400 --> 0:12:03.400 the Master's Brady which had a weather situation at the 0:12:03.400 --> 0:12:06.960 beginning which softened the course. So it's interesting hearing people 0:12:06.960 --> 0:12:08.599 because some people like, ah, you throw it out and 0:12:08.559 --> 0:12:12.480 it meant nothing. Um. On the other hand, the golfers 0:12:12.480 --> 0:12:15.280 who did well kind of have good history on the 0:12:15.320 --> 0:12:17.959 course too, So in some respects it does matter where 0:12:17.960 --> 0:12:20.280 are you falling. Yeah, it's a little bit in between. 0:12:20.440 --> 0:12:22.760 I don't think you throw it out completely, but there's 0:12:22.760 --> 0:12:26.520 some interesting handicapping angles around it. Um. First of all, 0:12:26.559 --> 0:12:29.480 I think what you saw was a lot of guys 0:12:29.600 --> 0:12:32.360 that were debutants at the Masters. We know that debutants, 0:12:32.400 --> 0:12:35.240 the first timers, typically don't have a great deal of success, 0:12:35.240 --> 0:12:36.839 and you saw a lot of guys those A lot 0:12:36.880 --> 0:12:39.480 of those guys have success in November, and I think 0:12:39.480 --> 0:12:41.640 a lot of that had to do with the softer conditions. 0:12:41.840 --> 0:12:44.240 Of course, DJ goes to twenty under part breaks an 0:12:44.240 --> 0:12:48.080 all time record, So there were some situations that were 0:12:48.120 --> 0:12:51.040 outside of the norm. But then you mentioned some cream 0:12:51.080 --> 0:12:53.520 did rise to the top like it usually does it August. 0:12:53.559 --> 0:12:56.439 It's usually a chalky tournament. The best players to tip 0:12:56.640 --> 0:12:58.760 do typically end up on the back nine on Sunday 0:12:58.800 --> 0:13:03.360 at top the leaderboard, and from the scoring statistics, it 0:13:03.480 --> 0:13:06.800 wasn't all that different from a normal April Masters. It 0:13:06.880 --> 0:13:09.280 was lower across the board, but not by as much 0:13:09.280 --> 0:13:11.720 as you might think. I think the biggest difference for 0:13:11.800 --> 0:13:15.680 me was seeing guys like Sebastian Monos, Cameron Smith's son 0:13:15.760 --> 0:13:18.040 j M. Now Smith has been there a few times, 0:13:18.040 --> 0:13:20.520 but m a first time, or Scotty Scheffler a first timer, 0:13:21.200 --> 0:13:24.920 uh ct PANU, Corey Conners. These guys were all in 0:13:24.920 --> 0:13:27.840 the top twenty, so I think that is different. I 0:13:27.840 --> 0:13:29.920 don't think you're going to see that again. Another thing 0:13:29.960 --> 0:13:32.280 that I think is interesting. I wonder what your opinion 0:13:32.320 --> 0:13:35.320 on this is Joe guys that did play the Masters 0:13:35.360 --> 0:13:39.600 for the first time in November. It's almost a disadvantage 0:13:39.600 --> 0:13:41.960 to be back here this year because I think they've 0:13:42.000 --> 0:13:44.360 got a rude awakening to what they're going to find 0:13:44.360 --> 0:13:48.760 in April. Yeah, I agree with you. You one name. 0:13:49.520 --> 0:13:53.199 We all kind of uh or I think we all, 0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:55.840 as fans of the Masters, you know, have some sort 0:13:55.880 --> 0:13:59.200 of sense of guardianship that we don't want to see 0:13:59.679 --> 0:14:03.440 the et pads as Deputy tonson And you didn't throw 0:14:03.440 --> 0:14:06.480 out the name, but Dylan for Telly, I take offense 0:14:06.520 --> 0:14:08.240 that these guys are gonna be in the top ten, 0:14:08.320 --> 0:14:10.120 you know, if there's if they're gonna be clustered in 0:14:10.120 --> 0:14:12.840 the top ten. We had Abraham, you know, short hitting 0:14:12.880 --> 0:14:16.840 Abraham answer there as well until he blew up on Sunday. UM. 0:14:16.960 --> 0:14:19.480 So I agree with you, and I think they are 0:14:19.480 --> 0:14:22.440 going to be in for rude awakening uh this year. 0:14:22.600 --> 0:14:25.560 And to throw just one more um, you know sort 0:14:25.600 --> 0:14:28.720 of proprietary stat out there that dove tails exactly with 0:14:28.840 --> 0:14:33.720 what Brady said and Gil is that the year over 0:14:33.800 --> 0:14:37.880 year correlation of strokes gained, you know, individual golfer strokes 0:14:37.880 --> 0:14:40.600 gained from one year that the next is always higher 0:14:40.640 --> 0:14:43.560 at the Masters than any other tournament. It's not even close. 0:14:43.640 --> 0:14:48.120 It It usually it averages you know, above point three. UM, 0:14:48.200 --> 0:14:50.960 and no other tournament gets above the high teams. Well, 0:14:51.120 --> 0:14:56.880 the correlations from the prior April in to November was 0:14:56.920 --> 0:15:00.360 point three, so it was you know, it's right spect 0:15:00.440 --> 0:15:04.080 So I agree you can't throw it all out because 0:15:04.680 --> 0:15:07.880 um and and I'll just throw one other we'll mention 0:15:07.920 --> 0:15:10.840 a big name here. If you are inclined to say, 0:15:10.880 --> 0:15:14.880 I'm gonna throw it out right that you know, is 0:15:14.920 --> 0:15:17.440 there anything that happened, I'm not gonna believe in UM, 0:15:17.440 --> 0:15:20.880 I would point this out to you. Justin Thomas has 0:15:20.960 --> 0:15:25.000 had has been an abysmal putter at the Masters. His 0:15:25.000 --> 0:15:28.600 his he's been negative strokes gained every year, uh, six 0:15:28.680 --> 0:15:32.600 team through nine team and with some you know, and 0:15:32.600 --> 0:15:34.480 and if you look at it by round you know 0:15:34.600 --> 0:15:39.160 you uh, it's a large majority or negative rounds in 0:15:40.080 --> 0:15:43.960 In November he gained over three three strokes putting was 0:15:43.960 --> 0:15:45.800 the first time he's ever been positive. And as we know, 0:15:46.040 --> 0:15:47.680 I think he finished, but he got the top five 0:15:48.240 --> 0:15:52.680 last year. Fourth. Okay, Now, if you're gonna throw out November, 0:15:52.920 --> 0:15:55.520 you know, then don't you have to throw out you know, 0:15:56.000 --> 0:15:57.720 you got to throw it all out right. It was 0:15:57.760 --> 0:16:01.160 the first time that Justin Thomas has ever successfully potted 0:16:01.200 --> 0:16:03.880 the Master, you know, the greens in augusta national. Um. 0:16:03.960 --> 0:16:05.800 So that's just what I'd like to point out to people. 0:16:05.880 --> 0:16:08.560 If if uh, you know, it's not so easy to 0:16:08.600 --> 0:16:10.400 just say I'm going to ignore it, because then you 0:16:10.480 --> 0:16:12.600 have to ignore all of it. Um. There were a 0:16:12.640 --> 0:16:15.440 lot of differences when when you look at the leaderboard 0:16:15.480 --> 0:16:18.520 and everything, but grand picture, like Joe says, the scoring 0:16:18.560 --> 0:16:21.040 was pretty darn similar that. That's pretty fascinating. I'm gonna 0:16:21.040 --> 0:16:22.520 go to I'm gonna go to the phone here, guys, 0:16:22.880 --> 0:16:26.400 Steve the punter you're familiar with Stephen Rawlings. Every year 0:16:26.440 --> 0:16:30.400 he puts together some nice Master stats. Uh. And again 0:16:30.440 --> 0:16:32.200 if we've if you've heard this in past years, there's 0:16:32.200 --> 0:16:33.960 a reason for it because again we're playing on the 0:16:34.000 --> 0:16:39.400 same course. Driving accuracy the least important thing too eventual 0:16:39.480 --> 0:16:42.280 Masters winners. If you go back the last twelve, uh, 0:16:42.320 --> 0:16:44.640 the average rank and driving accuracy for the winners was 0:16:45.000 --> 0:16:49.680 damn nearty nine point one seven. Driving distance average rank 0:16:49.720 --> 0:16:52.800 of the past twelve winners eight team point five the 0:16:52.800 --> 0:16:55.560 ones the categories that matter the most Greens in regulation 0:16:55.640 --> 0:16:59.280 per Stephen Rawlings six point six six in the rankings 0:16:59.320 --> 0:17:02.400 scrambling nine point eight. So really getting up and down 0:17:02.840 --> 0:17:06.880 is everything at augusta putting average eleven. Uh. The other 0:17:06.920 --> 0:17:10.040 big thing that we always talk about, where do winners 0:17:10.080 --> 0:17:12.040 and where do people who are successful of the masters 0:17:12.040 --> 0:17:15.159 make their hay? Well, let's go back twelve years again. 0:17:15.760 --> 0:17:19.960 Par three's aggregate for the last twelve winners thirteen under 0:17:19.960 --> 0:17:23.520 par on par three's on par four's twenty seven under 0:17:23.800 --> 0:17:28.680 on the par five's one hundred and seven under. So 0:17:28.760 --> 0:17:32.000 it is really all about the par fives. Let me 0:17:32.080 --> 0:17:35.000 before you, guys give your picks and how you're betting it, 0:17:35.200 --> 0:17:38.880 how you allocate your money and outrights and derivative markets, 0:17:39.119 --> 0:17:40.920 and it head to heads. Let me just cherry pick 0:17:40.920 --> 0:17:43.720 a few golfers and and feel and get your opinion 0:17:43.760 --> 0:17:45.800 on what you feel about these guys. Let's do brooks 0:17:45.840 --> 0:17:48.840 Keptka and Dan Burger. Daniel Burger, who are both headed 0:17:48.880 --> 0:17:52.199 in with injury concerns. Brookes kept I got thirty to one. 0:17:52.200 --> 0:17:54.399 I heard you got a forty to one, so you 0:17:54.440 --> 0:17:57.720 took a flyer as well, just it's just because well 0:17:57.920 --> 0:18:00.399 it's brooks Kepkin. I also noticed you start with to 0:18:00.520 --> 0:18:04.520 Florida State seminoles there. I did not notice that, but 0:18:04.760 --> 0:18:07.320 uh yeah, you know, I had actually been thinking I 0:18:07.400 --> 0:18:10.159 had six guys in my outright portfolio, and I was 0:18:10.200 --> 0:18:12.480 trying to think, there's there's one more guy I want, 0:18:12.480 --> 0:18:13.639 and I want to take a little bit of a 0:18:13.680 --> 0:18:16.200 shorter shot because we mentioned earlier this is a pretty 0:18:16.280 --> 0:18:19.280 chalky tournament. You typically don't have a triple digit long 0:18:19.320 --> 0:18:21.040 shot win this thing. In fact, I think it was 0:18:21.040 --> 0:18:25.200 the last eleven winners. The average pre tournament odds were 0:18:25.240 --> 0:18:27.560 less than forty two one, So I think that's kind 0:18:27.560 --> 0:18:29.679 of the threshold there. You don't want to do a 0:18:29.720 --> 0:18:33.080 whole lot outside of forty two one. Uh. But Kepco 0:18:33.320 --> 0:18:35.560 was the guy I was thinking about adding a while back, 0:18:35.600 --> 0:18:37.960 and before he withdrew from the Honda, and I think 0:18:38.000 --> 0:18:40.000 it was bay Hill or the work Day or he 0:18:40.040 --> 0:18:42.639 finished actually second at the work Day but took the 0:18:42.680 --> 0:18:45.240 time off had knee surgery exactly what will be twenty 0:18:45.280 --> 0:18:48.320 three days prior to teeing off at Augusta. So it 0:18:48.440 --> 0:18:50.400 is a gamble because we don't know about his health. 0:18:50.440 --> 0:18:53.480 But I said, if brooks Kepta is telling me, and 0:18:53.560 --> 0:18:55.959 he said, I'm not entering because I think I can 0:18:56.000 --> 0:18:59.040 finish second Uh, if he thinks he can win, I'm 0:18:59.080 --> 0:19:02.800 gonna take his word at it and att one that's 0:19:02.920 --> 0:19:05.159 three or four times the normal price we see on 0:19:05.200 --> 0:19:08.280 brooks Kepta. So yes, I I took a stab with that. 0:19:08.359 --> 0:19:11.239 As far as Daniel Burger, Um, I think he's got 0:19:11.320 --> 0:19:13.680 a good shot to you know, he is such an 0:19:13.680 --> 0:19:16.720 expert at putting on Bermuda grass and I don't know 0:19:16.760 --> 0:19:18.960 if he's quite figured out the bent grass yet. He's 0:19:18.960 --> 0:19:21.240 had one tremendous finish. I believe it was his first 0:19:21.320 --> 0:19:25.879 year playing the Masters. I believe had a top ten finish. Um. 0:19:26.040 --> 0:19:28.479 Guy's a great player and I absolutely love him as 0:19:28.480 --> 0:19:30.600 a Wryder cover. He's not on my list to win 0:19:30.640 --> 0:19:33.840 the Masters. Not on mine either. Joe curious about those 0:19:33.840 --> 0:19:37.440 two guys, and uh Um, I'll throw in one go 0:19:37.600 --> 0:19:41.240 ahead with those two. Yeah, we're talking about the two 0:19:41.240 --> 0:19:42.920 guys that have never missed a gun in Augusta. The 0:19:43.040 --> 0:19:45.639 Burger three for three and kept the five five. That 0:19:45.720 --> 0:19:47.960 doesn't necessarily mean there are there are a horse for 0:19:48.040 --> 0:19:50.080 the course. As I always say, you gotta look at 0:19:50.080 --> 0:19:52.520 the numbers a little deeper. But both of them shine 0:19:52.920 --> 0:19:57.359 in their histories here Um and Burger, I have is 0:19:57.400 --> 0:20:00.080 a top ten. Um, and I think he is is 0:20:00.119 --> 0:20:03.480 a threat to you know, he's not going to pull 0:20:03.520 --> 0:20:06.119 away from the field, but in a bunch field like 0:20:06.240 --> 0:20:09.080 we had two years ago when Tiger Wood h Daniel 0:20:09.080 --> 0:20:13.159 Burger skill set is is definitely uh you know, uh, 0:20:13.280 --> 0:20:15.920 he has a path to victory. Um. I have him 0:20:15.920 --> 0:20:19.000 as a top ten that with Brooks keptib Look, I've 0:20:19.040 --> 0:20:21.159 got to make the cuts somewhere right because there's so 0:20:21.160 --> 0:20:24.480 many laite guys. Um, you're absolutely right. If brookes Kepki 0:20:24.600 --> 0:20:27.199 is healthy forty tw one, is is a steel in 0:20:27.320 --> 0:20:30.879 terms of implied odds versus actual odds. Um. But I 0:20:31.480 --> 0:20:33.639 you know, I just made the choice that I was 0:20:33.680 --> 0:20:37.720 going to figure he's hobbled in some way, um, either 0:20:37.840 --> 0:20:41.280 in rust or from an actual injury. But you know, 0:20:42.600 --> 0:20:44.119 he's one of the best golfers in the world, and 0:20:44.160 --> 0:20:47.919 he's he's played outstanding uh in all five of his 0:20:48.160 --> 0:20:51.600 uh you know, all all five of his efforts here. Um. 0:20:51.640 --> 0:20:54.320 You know, he plays actually has an adjustment. You know, 0:20:54.359 --> 0:20:57.200 he plays almost a half stroke better per round at 0:20:57.200 --> 0:21:00.600 the Masters than he does during the hit those same 0:21:00.640 --> 0:21:03.840 tournaments before and after the Masters. So he's definitely a 0:21:03.840 --> 0:21:06.120 horse for the course. Um, but like I say, I'm 0:21:06.119 --> 0:21:08.760 omitting him just because I have to make some cuts somewhere. 0:21:08.840 --> 0:21:11.800 You're in great form before he pulled out with injury 0:21:11.800 --> 0:21:14.400 to finish second at the Concession and won the Phoenix Open. 0:21:14.560 --> 0:21:17.480 You're you're you're so right Joe about. You do have 0:21:17.560 --> 0:21:19.800 to you do have to draw the line somewhere because otherwise, 0:21:19.960 --> 0:21:22.440 you know, you've got twenty guys. Brian Rodgers just came 0:21:22.520 --> 0:21:24.040 up here was he was your stand in here or 0:21:24.080 --> 0:21:27.879