Speaker 1: Check it on Man No Down. Then Welcome to the
Speaker 1: Beating a Book Podcast, Gil Alegainer. It's our eighty five
Speaker 1: Masters edition with Joe Peter and Brady Cannon. Just a warning,
Speaker 1: because we are here at Stadium Swim Circuit Sports and
Speaker 1: the music is blaring behind us. Might have a few
Speaker 1: audio difficulties at some point in the podcast. We're gonna
Speaker 1: do our best to edit around them. But the gist
Speaker 1: of the whole thing and all the bets will come
Speaker 1: shining through. But just a a little bit of an
Speaker 1: apology in advance from all of us at the Beating
Speaker 1: of the Book Podcast. Enjoy. Welcome to the Beating the
Speaker 1: Book Podcast, Masters Edition, the eighty five Masters live from
Speaker 1: the pool at Circus Sports. Uh, it doesn't get any
Speaker 1: better than this, Gil Alexander along on site with Brady Cannon,
Speaker 1: host of long Shots, the greatest golf betting show there
Speaker 1: ever was at Visa, which you will be hosting not
Speaker 1: only with your co host West Reynolds today, but also
Speaker 1: with a great Scott van Pelt. Yeah, we're really excited
Speaker 1: about that. Scott Van Pelt will be our guest on
Speaker 1: long Shots. Matt Humans will be in studio as well,
Speaker 1: so we'll have the full crew there and UH, couldn't
Speaker 1: really ask for a better guest. He's on the grounds.
Speaker 1: And Augustine, yes, she is um and he's SVP for
Speaker 1: goodness that uh and we are also joined and I
Speaker 1: do mean honor to be joined by the guy who
Speaker 1: literally wrote the book on the Masters. When it comes
Speaker 1: to data that is not public domain data like you
Speaker 1: can find in baseball, say on a fan graphs was
Speaker 1: the twenty nineteen Masters Tour guide for my good friend,
Speaker 1: once upon a time doing other sports, now completely focused
Speaker 1: on golf in his spare time. It's Joe, Peter, how
Speaker 1: you doing, Joe, Hey, guys, Brady and Gil. Great to
Speaker 1: talk to you. And and Brady, that's a great jet
Speaker 1: in SVP. I know you guys know, but maybe some
Speaker 1: of the younger listeners don't. He's ay, he was one
Speaker 1: of the I don't know if he was the original
Speaker 1: or on the original crew, but a long ago and
Speaker 1: your inception Golf Channel host, so he certainly he certainly
Speaker 1: has the golf chops. Yes he was. He was Golf Channel,
Speaker 1: I believe right before ESPN. That's where or something. By
Speaker 1: the way, what year did you what year did you win?
Speaker 1: The MAB five. It was right before Jack turned the
Speaker 1: trick in eighty six, so I'm kind of the forgotten man.
Speaker 1: No one remember that's a good year to pick five.
Speaker 1: Have you remember that year putting the jacket on? Putting
Speaker 1: the jacket on Jack must have been a thrill for you.
Speaker 1: That was that was really even better than winning it.
Speaker 1: That's that was called right, should go back and check
Speaker 1: that footage, Brady? Yeah. Interesting. Alright, Joe, I want to
Speaker 1: start with you, because people who just heard what I said,
Speaker 1: they're like, what do you mean he wrote the book
Speaker 1: on the Masters? UH. For those who didn't hear your
Speaker 1: appearances on a numbers game on Visa when the book
Speaker 1: first came out in UH, please explain to folks sort
Speaker 1: of the journey that led you to the nineteen Masters
Speaker 1: Tour Guide. Yeah, Gil, the it was an early UH
Speaker 1: twenty eighteen UM that I decided. I was that there
Speaker 1: was not as much written about golf analytics as there
Speaker 1: was about baseball, So I pivoted from baseball for golf,
Speaker 1: and when the UH on the Master site that year,
Speaker 1: I noticed, well, just to back up for second um,
Speaker 1: as you know, you know, being analyticstrivan Um Strokes gained
Speaker 1: was the revolution in golf that uh and pioneered by
Speaker 1: Mark Brody, who uses the p g A data to
Speaker 1: create the metrics that you know, golf analytics. UH people
Speaker 1: use whether you're your BFS or or a better or
Speaker 1: just a fan of the sport. That really helped um
Speaker 1: change the way we looked at you know, it updated
Speaker 1: things from dreams and regulation and punched per round um.
Speaker 1: And but one of the limitations of it was if
Speaker 1: the event was not a p g A Tour event
Speaker 1: like all of the majors at the U for a
Speaker 1: long time, Uh, there was no data uh that that
Speaker 1: you you know, here we love this data, but then
Speaker 1: the majors come and we couldn't use it. And uh
Speaker 1: it turns out that because the PGA Tour don't run
Speaker 1: those those events, well, it turns out on the master's site,
Speaker 1: I noticed in that there was a catalog of every
Speaker 1: shot taken. So I input them all twenty thousand plus shots.
Speaker 1: I I input it after the events and wrote a
Speaker 1: book really the annually and put that's right, and kind
Speaker 1: of wrote a book of previewing the twenty nineteen event,
Speaker 1: and you know, really, so it was the first time
Speaker 1: that readers and golf fans in general got to see
Speaker 1: you know how Patrick read won. Um, you know who
Speaker 1: was actually best tat of green at that event. Um.
Speaker 1: And I've been doing it since I since I've been
Speaker 1: able to backfill a couple of other years, and I'm
Speaker 1: gonna be having a larger book come out, hopefully pre
Speaker 1: Christmas that will really give the entire strokes gained history
Speaker 1: at the Masters, which will cover about six years. Well
Speaker 1: we'll cover six years sixteen twenty one. So that's that's
Speaker 1: what I'm working on now, and that's how the first
Speaker 1: book got written. Hey Joe, real quick for the viewers
Speaker 1: and the listeners, would you quickly explain exactly what is
Speaker 1: strokes gained and greens in regulation? That's pretty obvious you
Speaker 1: hit the green in regulation, but what is strokes gained
Speaker 1: really defined? For the statutistic statisticians? Sure well, as you
Speaker 1: know Brady and a lot of golfings though greens in
Speaker 1: regulation like that, that sort of standard stack can be
Speaker 1: highly misleading. You know somebody that hits an iron shot
Speaker 1: from one eight to within four ft um and you
Speaker 1: know on on a second shot on a far five, say,
Speaker 1: and someone who you know hits uh, hits the third
Speaker 1: shot on a far five, you know, it chips it
Speaker 1: from twenty yards off the green and and gets it
Speaker 1: to within fifteen ft. They both have a green in regulation,
Speaker 1: but obviously the former shot is much much more valuable
Speaker 1: uh than the matter. So what Green's and what strokes
Speaker 1: gain does is thanks to the to the framework of
Speaker 1: that mark Brody created. Uh. It essentially takes every shot
Speaker 1: and judges it against a baseline of all other pros.
Speaker 1: And I always think the simplest way to to sort
Speaker 1: of illustrated is to think of an eight foot pot.
Speaker 1: Most golf fans know that pros touring pros make fifty
Speaker 1: of their eight foot pots. So if a pro is
Speaker 1: facing an eight foot put, um it essentially has an
Speaker 1: expectation of, uh, you know, of of one and a
Speaker 1: half strokes, right, he's gonna make it fifty percent at
Speaker 1: a time, and the other fifty percent at the time
Speaker 1: he'll two pot because you know, for these purposes, they
Speaker 1: never three pots from eight feet. So if a golfer
Speaker 1: makes an eight foot pot, he has picked up a
Speaker 1: half stroke where he has gained a half stroke against
Speaker 1: the benchmark of the field. And if he two puts
Speaker 1: from eight feet he's lost a half stroke. And you
Speaker 1: essentially do that with every stroke. You can banks mark
Speaker 1: every drive, memory, approach and every time you saw them
Speaker 1: all up in the end. And that's uh and and
Speaker 1: now you have a much more granular uh and to me,
Speaker 1: because I like data to tell stories, you get a
Speaker 1: much better story of what happened during around And you know,
Speaker 1: by the time you put a number of rounds together
Speaker 1: and number of tournaments together, now you have stories on
Speaker 1: each coffer skill sets and how they different differ and
Speaker 1: as you know, Brady, different tournaments for reward different skills.
Speaker 1: So it's a very useful tool and I just think
Speaker 1: it's fascinating and fun. This gives us entree. By the way,
Speaker 1: before we get to our specific Masters thoughts for this year,
Speaker 1: probably the greatest thing in your Master's Tour Guide was
Speaker 1: in doing this research on strokes gained analysis specifically for
Speaker 1: the Masters, you stumbled upon maybe the greatest single stat
Speaker 1: um in modern golf history. And we're not even sure
Speaker 1: to this day if the person who is at the
Speaker 1: center of this stat and the streak is aware of it,
Speaker 1: could you explain to people what that is? Sure? And
Speaker 1: I will tell you before I publish this December, I
Speaker 1: will try uh to reach out to this person in
Speaker 1: question and get his thoughts on it. Were. Of course,
Speaker 1: referring to Tiger Woods and um strokes gained is a
Speaker 1: familiar I read the book and I'm sure I'll remember. Okay,
Speaker 1: all right, go ahead, I'm sorry, Joe. Yeah, so even
Speaker 1: pro golfers, I think I think it was maybe Stewart
Speaker 1: cink Wu who referred to strokes gained as a cruel mistress.
Speaker 1: You know, it is a it is a brutal machine
Speaker 1: because you are always being judged against your fellow pros.
Speaker 1: So if you shoot a three under sixty nine, you know,
Speaker 1: on of course, but the field shoots sixty eight a half,
Speaker 1: you have actually lost a half stroke to the field. Um.
Speaker 1: So picking up positive strokes gained each round is an accomplishment.
Speaker 1: Now for the most elite players, they expect to do it.
Speaker 1: But you know, you know, somebody goes six, six, seventy eight.
Speaker 1: You know, even if they're rory, that seventy three round
Speaker 1: probably lost strokes to the field. Well, it turns out
Speaker 1: Tiger Woods went an entire three sixty five day period
Speaker 1: plus without a round losing strokes to the field and
Speaker 1: he was within one The punch line of the story
Speaker 1: is in the year two thousand, he was within one hole,
Speaker 1: you know, one round and one hole the eight hole
Speaker 1: of his final round of the year, and he uh
Speaker 1: and and to put together what I call the perfect year,
Speaker 1: the perfect p g A tour season, and he missed it.
Speaker 1: And our friend Chris Felika actually called in and I
Speaker 1: couldn't find the scorecard. And he when we first told
Speaker 1: this story, he called in and uh, you know, showed
Speaker 1: us that Tiger actually went like double bubble to tow
Speaker 1: at Balderrama in Spain at a World Golf Championship of
Speaker 1: that to end the two thousand the season, and it
Speaker 1: broke his his It was over ninety rounds that he'd
Speaker 1: had of strokes gained on the field, And to me,
Speaker 1: it's even more impressive than his hundred and forty plus
Speaker 1: um made cuts in a row, because uh, to make cuts,
Speaker 1: to make that many cuts in row, what essentially means
Speaker 1: you never had a bead round on Thursday or Friday.
Speaker 1: To go ninety rounds in a row without you know,
Speaker 1: picking up strokes on the field essentially means you never
Speaker 1: had a blow up whole for ninety some rounds because
Speaker 1: you know, you go, you put a triple on the card.
Speaker 1: It's now very hard to gain strokes on the on
Speaker 1: the field for a round, and he did it for
Speaker 1: and I think that's the most um and what you
Speaker 1: start when you start going through data, you realize that
Speaker 1: at any time a Golford gets to twenty rounds, it's
Speaker 1: an amazing accomplishment, you know. And Tiger got up to ninety.
Speaker 1: I think the second highest is something like Marco Mirror
Speaker 1: at thirty or thirty one. Yeah, something like that. And
Speaker 1: it's just it'll never be broke. Joe. You probably remember
Speaker 1: it was, I believe last year on tour. It was
Speaker 1: a big deal because Victor Hovland lad the field and
Speaker 1: strokes gained Teta Green for three weeks in a row
Speaker 1: and that was monument three weeks in a row. So interestingly,
Speaker 1: that did not make the Tiger documentary. Joe, I was
Speaker 1: waiting for it the whole time when I was watching,
Speaker 1: When is the Strokes game thing coming? Alright, guys, So
Speaker 1: the five version of the Masters, it is the one
Speaker 1: of our majors, of our four majors where we actually
Speaker 1: play on the same course. We talked about this obviously
Speaker 1: every year. This year is a little different because we're
Speaker 1: coming off the pandemic Masters, which was played in November.
Speaker 1: Very different. Dustin Johnson with a twenty under. We obviously
Speaker 1: never see scores like that at the Masters, and Cameron
Speaker 1: Smith famously the first guy to ever have four rounds
Speaker 1: in the sixties. Now that I guess the first question is, um,
Speaker 1: how much do we read into that November version of
Speaker 1: the Master's Brady which had a weather situation at the
Speaker 1: beginning which softened the course. So it's interesting hearing people
Speaker 1: because some people like, ah, you throw it out and
Speaker 1: it meant nothing. Um. On the other hand, the golfers
Speaker 1: who did well kind of have good history on the
Speaker 1: course too, So in some respects it does matter where
Speaker 1: are you falling. Yeah, it's a little bit in between.
Speaker 1: I don't think you throw it out completely, but there's
Speaker 1: some interesting handicapping angles around it. Um. First of all,
Speaker 1: I think what you saw was a lot of guys
Speaker 1: that were debutants at the Masters. We know that debutants,
Speaker 1: the first timers, typically don't have a great deal of success,
Speaker 1: and you saw a lot of guys those A lot
Speaker 1: of those guys have success in November, and I think
Speaker 1: a lot of that had to do with the softer conditions.
Speaker 1: Of course, DJ goes to twenty under part breaks an
Speaker 1: all time record, So there were some situations that were
Speaker 1: outside of the norm. But then you mentioned some cream
Speaker 1: did rise to the top like it usually does it August.
Speaker 1: It's usually a chalky tournament. The best players to tip
Speaker 1: do typically end up on the back nine on Sunday
Speaker 1: at top the leaderboard, and from the scoring statistics, it
Speaker 1: wasn't all that different from a normal April Masters. It
Speaker 1: was lower across the board, but not by as much
Speaker 1: as you might think. I think the biggest difference for
Speaker 1: me was seeing guys like Sebastian Monos, Cameron Smith's son
Speaker 1: j M. Now Smith has been there a few times,
Speaker 1: but m a first time, or Scotty Scheffler a first timer,
Speaker 1: uh ct PANU, Corey Conners. These guys were all in
Speaker 1: the top twenty, so I think that is different. I
Speaker 1: don't think you're going to see that again. Another thing
Speaker 1: that I think is interesting. I wonder what your opinion
Speaker 1: on this is Joe guys that did play the Masters
Speaker 1: for the first time in November. It's almost a disadvantage
Speaker 1: to be back here this year because I think they've
Speaker 1: got a rude awakening to what they're going to find
Speaker 1: in April. Yeah, I agree with you. You one name.
Speaker 1: We all kind of uh or I think we all,
Speaker 1: as fans of the Masters, you know, have some sort
Speaker 1: of sense of guardianship that we don't want to see
Speaker 1: the et pads as Deputy tonson And you didn't throw
Speaker 1: out the name, but Dylan for Telly, I take offense
Speaker 1: that these guys are gonna be in the top ten,
Speaker 1: you know, if there's if they're gonna be clustered in
Speaker 1: the top ten. We had Abraham, you know, short hitting
Speaker 1: Abraham answer there as well until he blew up on Sunday. UM.
Speaker 1: So I agree with you, and I think they are
Speaker 1: going to be in for rude awakening uh this year.
Speaker 1: And to throw just one more um, you know sort
Speaker 1: of proprietary stat out there that dove tails exactly with
Speaker 1: what Brady said and Gil is that the year over
Speaker 1: year correlation of strokes gained, you know, individual golfer strokes
Speaker 1: gained from one year that the next is always higher
Speaker 1: at the Masters than any other tournament. It's not even close.
Speaker 1: It It usually it averages you know, above point three. UM,
Speaker 1: and no other tournament gets above the high teams. Well,
Speaker 1: the correlations from the prior April in to November was
Speaker 1: point three, so it was you know, it's right spect
Speaker 1: So I agree you can't throw it all out because
Speaker 1: um and and I'll just throw one other we'll mention
Speaker 1: a big name here. If you are inclined to say,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna throw it out right that you know, is
Speaker 1: there anything that happened, I'm not gonna believe in UM,
Speaker 1: I would point this out to you. Justin Thomas has
Speaker 1: had has been an abysmal putter at the Masters. His
Speaker 1: his he's been negative strokes gained every year, uh, six
Speaker 1: team through nine team and with some you know, and
Speaker 1: and if you look at it by round you know
Speaker 1: you uh, it's a large majority or negative rounds in
Speaker 1: In November he gained over three three strokes putting was
Speaker 1: the first time he's ever been positive. And as we know,
Speaker 1: I think he finished, but he got the top five
Speaker 1: last year. Fourth. Okay, Now, if you're gonna throw out November,
Speaker 1: you know, then don't you have to throw out you know,
Speaker 1: you got to throw it all out right. It was
Speaker 1: the first time that Justin Thomas has ever successfully potted
Speaker 1: the Master, you know, the greens in augusta national. Um.
Speaker 1: So that's just what I'd like to point out to people.
Speaker 1: If if uh, you know, it's not so easy to
Speaker 1: just say I'm going to ignore it, because then you
Speaker 1: have to ignore all of it. Um. There were a
Speaker 1: lot of differences when when you look at the leaderboard
Speaker 1: and everything, but grand picture, like Joe says, the scoring
Speaker 1: was pretty darn similar that. That's pretty fascinating. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go to I'm gonna go to the phone here, guys,
Speaker 1: Steve the punter you're familiar with Stephen Rawlings. Every year
Speaker 1: he puts together some nice Master stats. Uh. And again
Speaker 1: if we've if you've heard this in past years, there's
Speaker 1: a reason for it because again we're playing on the
Speaker 1: same course. Driving accuracy the least important thing too eventual
Speaker 1: Masters winners. If you go back the last twelve, uh,
Speaker 1: the average rank and driving accuracy for the winners was
Speaker 1: damn nearty nine point one seven. Driving distance average rank
Speaker 1: of the past twelve winners eight team point five the
Speaker 1: ones the categories that matter the most Greens in regulation
Speaker 1: per Stephen Rawlings six point six six in the rankings
Speaker 1: scrambling nine point eight. So really getting up and down
Speaker 1: is everything at augusta putting average eleven. Uh. The other
Speaker 1: big thing that we always talk about, where do winners
Speaker 1: and where do people who are successful of the masters
Speaker 1: make their hay? Well, let's go back twelve years again.
Speaker 1: Par three's aggregate for the last twelve winners thirteen under
Speaker 1: par on par three's on par four's twenty seven under
Speaker 1: on the par five's one hundred and seven under. So
Speaker 1: it is really all about the par fives. Let me
Speaker 1: before you, guys give your picks and how you're betting it,
Speaker 1: how you allocate your money and outrights and derivative markets,
Speaker 1: and it head to heads. Let me just cherry pick
Speaker 1: a few golfers and and feel and get your opinion
Speaker 1: on what you feel about these guys. Let's do brooks
Speaker 1: Keptka and Dan Burger. Daniel Burger, who are both headed
Speaker 1: in with injury concerns. Brookes kept I got thirty to one.
Speaker 1: I heard you got a forty to one, so you
Speaker 1: took a flyer as well, just it's just because well
Speaker 1: it's brooks Kepkin. I also noticed you start with to
Speaker 1: Florida State seminoles there. I did not notice that, but
Speaker 1: uh yeah, you know, I had actually been thinking I
Speaker 1: had six guys in my outright portfolio, and I was
Speaker 1: trying to think, there's there's one more guy I want,
Speaker 1: and I want to take a little bit of a
Speaker 1: shorter shot because we mentioned earlier this is a pretty
Speaker 1: chalky tournament. You typically don't have a triple digit long
Speaker 1: shot win this thing. In fact, I think it was
Speaker 1: the last eleven winners. The average pre tournament odds were
Speaker 1: less than forty two one, So I think that's kind
Speaker 1: of the threshold there. You don't want to do a
Speaker 1: whole lot outside of forty two one. Uh. But Kepco
Speaker 1: was the guy I was thinking about adding a while back,
Speaker 1: and before he withdrew from the Honda, and I think
Speaker 1: it was bay Hill or the work Day or he
Speaker 1: finished actually second at the work Day but took the
Speaker 1: time off had knee surgery exactly what will be twenty
Speaker 1: three days prior to teeing off at Augusta. So it
Speaker 1: is a gamble because we don't know about his health.
Speaker 1: But I said, if brooks Kepta is telling me, and
Speaker 1: he said, I'm not entering because I think I can
Speaker 1: finish second Uh, if he thinks he can win, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna take his word at it and att one that's
Speaker 1: three or four times the normal price we see on
Speaker 1: brooks Kepta. So yes, I I took a stab with that.
Speaker 1: As far as Daniel Burger, Um, I think he's got
Speaker 1: a good shot to you know, he is such an
Speaker 1: expert at putting on Bermuda grass and I don't know
Speaker 1: if he's quite figured out the bent grass yet. He's
Speaker 1: had one tremendous finish. I believe it was his first
Speaker 1: year playing the Masters. I believe had a top ten finish. Um.
Speaker 1: Guy's a great player and I absolutely love him as
Speaker 1: a Wryder cover. He's not on my list to win
Speaker 1: the Masters. Not on mine either. Joe curious about those
Speaker 1: two guys, and uh Um, I'll throw in one go
Speaker 1: ahead with those two. Yeah, we're talking about the two
Speaker 1: guys that have never missed a gun in Augusta. The
Speaker 1: Burger three for three and kept the five five. That
Speaker 1: doesn't necessarily mean there are there are a horse for
Speaker 1: the course. As I always say, you gotta look at
Speaker 1: the numbers a little deeper. But both of them shine
Speaker 1: in their histories here Um and Burger, I have is
Speaker 1: a top ten. Um, and I think he is is
Speaker 1: a threat to you know, he's not going to pull
Speaker 1: away from the field, but in a bunch field like
Speaker 1: we had two years ago when Tiger Wood h Daniel
Speaker 1: Burger skill set is is definitely uh you know, uh,
Speaker 1: he has a path to victory. Um. I have him
Speaker 1: as a top ten that with Brooks keptib Look, I've
Speaker 1: got to make the cuts somewhere right because there's so
Speaker 1: many laite guys. Um, you're absolutely right. If brookes Kepki
Speaker 1: is healthy forty tw one, is is a steel in
Speaker 1: terms of implied odds versus actual odds. Um. But I
Speaker 1: you know, I just made the choice that I was
Speaker 1: going to figure he's hobbled in some way, um, either
Speaker 1: in rust or from an actual injury. But you know,
Speaker 1: he's one of the best golfers in the world, and
Speaker 1: he's he's played outstanding uh in all five of his
Speaker 1: uh you know, all all five of his efforts here. Um.
Speaker 1: You know, he plays actually has an adjustment. You know,
Speaker 1: he plays almost a half stroke better per round at
Speaker 1: the Masters than he does during the hit those same
Speaker 1: tournaments before and after the Masters. So he's definitely a
Speaker 1: horse for the course. Um, but like I say, I'm
Speaker 1: omitting him just because I have to make some cuts somewhere.
Speaker 1: You're in great form before he pulled out with injury
Speaker 1: to finish second at the Concession and won the Phoenix Open.
Speaker 1: You're you're you're so right Joe about. You do have
Speaker 1: to you do have to draw the line somewhere because otherwise,
Speaker 1: you know, you've got twenty guys. Brian Rodgers just came
Speaker 1: up here was he was your stand in here or
Speaker 1: you're sitting and he said, I have bets already, not
Speaker 1: twenty nine different golfers, but upwards of like fifteen and
Speaker 1: twenty already. So it's like you can't go crazy in this. Um.
Speaker 1: All right, last last golfer before I let you get
Speaker 1: to it. Jordan's Speef, who just came off a win
Speaker 1: at the Larow Texas Open, who has had obviously is
Speaker 1: it already has a green jacket, has had great success
Speaker 1: on this course. Uh. How do you view someone who
Speaker 1: is now all the way down to eleven to one
Speaker 1: in the group of the elite, the ROMs and the
Speaker 1: j t S and the Deshambos of the world. Do
Speaker 1: you just come at least stay away from him Joe. Well, uh,
Speaker 1: let's let's let me take on one hand. On the
Speaker 1: other hand, on one hand, Jordan's spee is is even
Speaker 1: better than Tiger and Phil in terms of history at
Speaker 1: the Masters. Now, obviously that's only twenty eight rounds in
Speaker 1: his case, and and we're getting here, we're getting in
Speaker 1: the upper double digits for Phil and Tiger when you
Speaker 1: talk about their histories. But Jordan's speet has entered seven times,
Speaker 1: He's played twenty eight rounds here, and he has average
Speaker 1: more strokes game per round than any player who's ever
Speaker 1: played UH, at least in this era. I think with
Speaker 1: last year's slight slump, he fell behind Ben Hogan in
Speaker 1: terms of career, but he's he's up there in terms
Speaker 1: of the greatest Masters players per round in the history
Speaker 1: of the event. So, and it makes sense because as
Speaker 1: you talked about earlier, it is a second course, UH,
Speaker 1: it is a second shot course. UH. And he has
Speaker 1: been a wizard with the Irons at least since I've
Speaker 1: been able to measure his strokes gain since sixteen UM.
Speaker 1: And he can get hot with and Potter, as we
Speaker 1: all know. So there is a case that if he
Speaker 1: is in UH fourteen fifteen sixteen. Jordan's peak form, you know,
Speaker 1: he should be a top I. On the other hand, uh,
Speaker 1: he has been hot for three months, so he has
Speaker 1: a nice, you know, sort of UM form for the
Speaker 1: last twenty round. But if you pull that lens back
Speaker 1: to even just forty rounds or fifty, you would say, hey,
Speaker 1: there's a lot of guys that have come in winning
Speaker 1: the Houston Open and having looked ten or eleven to
Speaker 1: one UM. I think that's an insanely short price. So yes,
Speaker 1: I'm certainly staying away from him. I am too, Yeah,
Speaker 1: the the price is absolutely prohibitive. Now, when he shot
Speaker 1: sixty one at the Phoenix Open, you still could have
Speaker 1: gotten him at fifty two one and I'd love to
Speaker 1: have that ticket in my pock um and Joe, you know,
Speaker 1: you talk about his iron play. It's probably the first
Speaker 1: time in three years and seven months that's when he
Speaker 1: last won the British Open at Royal Birkdale, that he
Speaker 1: and you mentioned this three month period that he's been
Speaker 1: so hot, he's actually been finally finally gaining strokes with
Speaker 1: his irons once again. He hasn't done that basically since
Speaker 1: he's gotten on this role. So that's a great sign
Speaker 1: for Jordan's speed, But no, I can't bet him and
Speaker 1: because the price absolutely is keeping me out. Before we
Speaker 1: get into Joe and Brady's individual bets on the masters,
Speaker 1: first guys, question about allocation of your funds. What percentage
Speaker 1: of your betting pie is on outrights? What percentage is
Speaker 1: on derivative markets like top tens in top twenties? What
Speaker 1: percentage would you say is on hit to hit? Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'll step up. UM, I will tell you I have
Speaker 1: more in the outright market. So for me, the outright
Speaker 1: market will be in terms of actual capital laid out. UM,
Speaker 1: I will have more than ten percent of what I'm
Speaker 1: gonna bet on this market overall on the outrights, which
Speaker 1: is more than any other event. Um. One is because
Speaker 1: it's fun, Um, but two is gil I'm telling you
Speaker 1: you're where you're sitting. The circle is doing to revolutionize
Speaker 1: or to make attractive futures betting on a big event
Speaker 1: like this by lowering that hole, uh is man. If
Speaker 1: it catches on across the industry, they are going to
Speaker 1: realize that lower margins leads to higher handle and ultimately
Speaker 1: a better bottom line, even though it takes more skill
Speaker 1: to manage the book. Obviously, Sirka knows this, and I
Speaker 1: just cannot give those guys a big enough compliment for
Speaker 1: pushing the industry in that direction. As you know, Gil,
Speaker 1: I tried to get on that side of the industry
Speaker 1: and actually operate one of these and this was the exact,
Speaker 1: you know, sort of business model I had. So, you know,
Speaker 1: kudos to them, and and I think it hopefully it
Speaker 1: will lead to more more, more of what you call
Speaker 1: the pre flop um and you mentioned about in game.
Speaker 1: I am not betting Justin Thomas free flop because of
Speaker 1: his of his putting, you know, april putting woes at
Speaker 1: the Master's uh if you know, but he look, it's
Speaker 1: justin Amis if he is lurking after Thursday and Friday
Speaker 1: and he's showing me that the putting is carrying over
Speaker 1: from November. Uh, he's the one guy I'm kind of
Speaker 1: targeting in game. What would it give me the parameters
Speaker 1: of that? So let's just throw out some hypotheticals. If
Speaker 1: j T were uh six strokes backs, because this famously
Speaker 1: is not a catchup course either, right, So let's say
Speaker 1: it's let me not make it six, let me make
Speaker 1: it harder. Let's say it's five strokes back and he
Speaker 1: balloons to one that is somewhere in that sort of range,
Speaker 1: like what would it take talking after round one or
Speaker 1: after after round one round three, Let's say after round
Speaker 1: one and well, here here would be my here's here
Speaker 1: would be my demarcation point. Is he positive strokes gain
Speaker 1: potting or not? You know, if he if he got
Speaker 1: to where he did by chipping something in or you
Speaker 1: know he's just dialed and with the irons, but still
Speaker 1: to putting from from eleven feet consistently. It's not a
Speaker 1: bet for me. But if he's showing me that he
Speaker 1: has sort of mastered these greens, then I think he
Speaker 1: does have a Jordan's Speak two thousand eighteen tight comeback,
Speaker 1: even though that was a near comeback, but remember he
Speaker 1: almost ran down Patrick Reed and Justin Thomas can do
Speaker 1: that with against any front runner on any course. If
Speaker 1: you know, if he can show me he's putting these
Speaker 1: these greens. And and then the derivative markets like top ten,
Speaker 1: top twenty, and the head to heads, is that like
Speaker 1: even between the two of those categories, well no much
Speaker 1: much more on head to head to guild because that's
Speaker 1: where the hold is the you know, it's not a
Speaker 1: dime line, um, but it's still it's much more pure, right,
Speaker 1: It's a head to head batch up in terms of
Speaker 1: how I'm handicapping guys. Uh, and it's you know, it's
Speaker 1: just playing with the standard minus one ten line. I
Speaker 1: almost never do top I never do first ground leaders
Speaker 1: because the hold is insane. I never do three balls
Speaker 1: for the same reason. Um. But the on top tens. Look,
Speaker 1: I print, I published a top ten every year for
Speaker 1: the Masters, so I do I do bet this every year? Um?
Speaker 1: And I well, you know, I'll put it. I'll put
Speaker 1: all top all my top ten plays in there. But
Speaker 1: as always, I always consider all that other stuff, entertainment,
Speaker 1: the you know, the the I plan. I believe I
Speaker 1: have positive ev on my matchup bets. I don't necessarily
Speaker 1: think that when I'm having fun doing futures and you know,
Speaker 1: top ten stuff makes sense, how about you. Yeah, I'll
Speaker 1: probably have about maybe let's say thirty of my outlay
Speaker 1: in the outright markets, and then uh, you know, let's see,
Speaker 1: probably will be uh in the top ten. And I'm
Speaker 1: doing the math wrong here, but I'll have the smallest
Speaker 1: portion in the outright market, and I'll probably have about
Speaker 1: one and a half times that risk on the top twenty,
Speaker 1: in the top tens, and then the rest that the
Speaker 1: largest portion of my pie will be on head to
Speaker 1: head matchups. That's where I'm going to risk the most
Speaker 1: all for the tournament, not round by ray erect I
Speaker 1: just for some reason, I am not good at round
Speaker 1: a round head to head matchups. I'm much more successful
Speaker 1: on the full tournament, and I think I'm just better
Speaker 1: at figuring out how a guy's skill set is going
Speaker 1: to manifest over four days. It's kind of like trying
Speaker 1: to bet a football game for one quarter. Um, anything
Speaker 1: can happen in one round of golf. So I have
Speaker 1: been very good in head to head matchups for the
Speaker 1: entire tournament, and that's where my biggest risk will be.
Speaker 1: Um Joe, you talk about the top tens, in the
Speaker 1: top twenties, I have kind of started to gravitate more
Speaker 1: towards the top twenty. Obviously you're getting a lower price,
Speaker 1: but you double your ability to win, and I have
Speaker 1: found that those are good bets. I like the top
Speaker 1: twenty market a lot. Now you get a low price
Speaker 1: guy like aeor Justin Thomas. I might go top ten
Speaker 1: with him, um, but a lot of other than my
Speaker 1: shortest shots. I'll probably go top twenty with uh. And
Speaker 1: then how many times have you had guys finished twelve exactly?
Speaker 1: That's the tough part, But I've had plenty finished twenty
Speaker 1: second to But um, I like that top twenty market.
Speaker 1: I think I do better than the top ten. And
Speaker 1: then the outrights. I have seven of them, and on
Speaker 1: my least amount of risk, let's start there. It is
Speaker 1: that time. Who have you? Who have you been out right? So?
Speaker 1: And we've talked about this. The Masters is kind of
Speaker 1: a chalky tournament. I took two flyers on guys that
Speaker 1: I think have a puncher's chance, but at the time
Speaker 1: that I bet him, their numbers were so far, so
Speaker 1: much of an outlier versus the rest of the market.
Speaker 1: I said, I got to try it, and that was
Speaker 1: Jason co Crack, and I got him at a hundred
Speaker 1: and seventy to one. Now he's kind of come back.
Speaker 1: When I got it. Everywhere everywhere else had him at
Speaker 1: a hundred, and I got him at a hundred and seventy.
Speaker 1: Now he's probably in the neighborhood of a hundred and
Speaker 1: fifty the other guy, and I think he does have
Speaker 1: a shot. He he has some things that makes sense.
Speaker 1: He's been in good form. He wanted Shadow Creek, which
Speaker 1: I think is a correlated course. Uh. The other guy
Speaker 1: is Francesco Molinari. Now he hasn't been in great farm.
Speaker 1: He started to return to form a little bit uh
Speaker 1: in one. Obviously he was there on Sunday with Tiger
Speaker 1: before we put the ball in the water got him
Speaker 1: a hundred and twenty five. Now he has started to
Speaker 1: drift up act towards that neighborhood. But again when I
Speaker 1: bought him, a lot of people were trading him at
Speaker 1: seventy five to one. So so those were my two
Speaker 1: long shots, and then the rest of the guys I
Speaker 1: think are substantial bets that really have a good chance
Speaker 1: to win this thing. I did go with Justin Thomas Joe,
Speaker 1: and what I love about Justin Thomas is my first
Speaker 1: bet on him was at plus fifteen twenty five. And
Speaker 1: then when he uh he created in a tournament recently,
Speaker 1: it was before he won the players and he drifted
Speaker 1: up to nineteen to one. So I bought more at
Speaker 1: nineteen to one on Justin Thomas definitely like that number
Speaker 1: that's long gone at this point after he won the players,
Speaker 1: I did take Kepta at forty to one. I took
Speaker 1: Patrick Cantley, who I got it thirty to one, which
Speaker 1: was a nice number. He's down closer to twenty two
Speaker 1: or what have you at this point. And Matthew Fitzpatrick
Speaker 1: got him a while ago at a hundred to one.
Speaker 1: He's now down to about forty one, so nice prices.
Speaker 1: There's my card. Uh oh, Louis Eustas and Louis Eustas
Speaker 1: and I got at seventy five to one, and he's
Speaker 1: still in that neighborhood. Joseph. Yeah, in those last two
Speaker 1: names you mentioned, are you know, favorites of mine way
Speaker 1: up the boards. I will try to play them in
Speaker 1: all matchups that I can uh and and Fitzpatrick and
Speaker 1: Eustas and Um. I think that because both of the well,
Speaker 1: Ustasen has always played very well here. He is very
Speaker 1: good tea green here. Um and you know he obviously
Speaker 1: he's getting up in age, but I do like that.
Speaker 1: But I think for a guy that far up the board,
Speaker 1: I think his outrights are undervalued. So I will try
Speaker 1: to take advantage of that. Elsewhere. Same with Fitzpatrick and
Speaker 1: with the other guy all a little closer down down
Speaker 1: the range is camp Smith. Um, he did not come
Speaker 1: out of nowhere last year. Uh at Augusta. That was
Speaker 1: his fourth trip here, and he'd actually had a very
Speaker 1: solid um strokes gains history on his twelve rounds before
Speaker 1: the four last year. Uh So he is also a
Speaker 1: uh an outright play of mind, but the serious because
Speaker 1: those odds are so high you don't have to put
Speaker 1: a lot of capital down to get some sort of
Speaker 1: payoff the guys though that I'm really serious about up
Speaker 1: in the elite section. Um. And it is a chalky tournament.
Speaker 1: I haven't always done that. Gil was you know, two
Speaker 1: years ago I wrote a whole book, uh, you know,
Speaker 1: explaining coming to the conclusion that that Tony fen Now
Speaker 1: was gonna win the Masters. And um, obviously that was
Speaker 1: a thrilling uh you know Saturday for me and and
Speaker 1: the last day I was the only person in America
Speaker 1: probably not rooting for Tiger on Sunday. Um. But it
Speaker 1: is more chalky this year. Uh. Female still definitely has
Speaker 1: the t uh T degree t to green game. Um,
Speaker 1: it's only gotten, you know, it's only stayed strong in Augusta.
Speaker 1: But um, you know, the putting and and really the
Speaker 1: volatility he the volatility isn't there in his game to
Speaker 1: get to plus fourteen plus sixteen strokes, a game that
Speaker 1: you need to win a tournament. And you know, I've
Speaker 1: gotten burned enough times having him in the top five,
Speaker 1: um and and not breaking through, so that I am
Speaker 1: a chalky with my two favorite plays. They are John
Speaker 1: Ram and uh Xander Shafley out of the sort of
Speaker 1: elite group. Neither of them are the you know, they're
Speaker 1: they're they're better prices than you get from DJ or
Speaker 1: or Thomas or speak. Um, I really think Rom should
Speaker 1: be favored to win this tournament. Honestly, Um, it's and
Speaker 1: and that is how I'm playing it. And I have
Speaker 1: a uh, you know, like I have. I have put
Speaker 1: a substantial you know, in terms of the what I'm
Speaker 1: putting in the outrights almost you know, the biggest majority
Speaker 1: of it goes to Rom. I'm not really sprinkling. This
Speaker 1: isn't really a sprinkle situation. As much as I think
Speaker 1: Rom should be favorite. And if I'm getting him at
Speaker 1: eleven thirteen, I've seen him at fourteen. It was fourteen
Speaker 1: and a quarter at the Circle when they posted just
Speaker 1: two nights go. Um, I think that that that's my play.
Speaker 1: And I think Xander Shafley also is as the course
Speaker 1: history here um and and as in current form and
Speaker 1: intermediate form to be a real factor. Um. It's I
Speaker 1: will say, way up the board, way, way way up
Speaker 1: the board. At Circa, Justin Rose is a hundred and
Speaker 1: thirty to one. Justin Rose, except for missing the cut
Speaker 1: in twenty nine, he has played superbly here. I cannot
Speaker 1: get my hands around a world where Justin Rose is
Speaker 1: a hundred thirty to win at Augusta or at least
Speaker 1: at Circle. Now most of your other books you're gonna
Speaker 1: get fifty six to one, etcetera. Um, but I've seen
Speaker 1: a lot of hundreds. I would not hesitate. If I
Speaker 1: were just walking through the casino and saw that, I
Speaker 1: would take out at least fifty bucks and just throw
Speaker 1: it that, you know, at a hundred thirty to one.
Speaker 1: And because that's um that that to me just looks interesting.
Speaker 1: And maybe he's hurt, maybe the equipment is still causing
Speaker 1: him problems, but it's it's uh. That one really opened
Speaker 1: my eyes. I bet Kepka just like you on a
Speaker 1: flyer just in case, um, Cameron Smith, and then I
Speaker 1: went super Chucky. At the top two I went John
Speaker 1: Rom Justin Thomas and fifth and final Bryson Deshamber, which
Speaker 1: is a self loathing prevention bet, Which is what I
Speaker 1: want to ask you guys about, who's the one guy
Speaker 1: that you don't have a pre flop bet on who
Speaker 1: if he wins, it will cause you the most self loathing. Joe,
Speaker 1: would it be Tony Fenwe, then, I guess would answer,
Speaker 1: I mean, although I would be so happy for him. Um,
Speaker 1: normally it would be Jason Day. Jason Day is on
Speaker 1: my do not trade list because of how many times
Speaker 1: I have gotten either screwed by him or and then
Speaker 1: uh in both ways either betting on him or not
Speaker 1: betting on him. Uh. You know the most famous in
Speaker 1: my in my case being I think I had him
Speaker 1: at the Arnold Palmer and he and I had him
Speaker 1: like loaded in dfs and in in matchup bets, and
Speaker 1: he left the course after the fifth hole. And you know,
Speaker 1: if he had not teed off, everything would have been refunded.
Speaker 1: He left the course after the fifth hole and then
Speaker 1: was seen at Disneyland with his at Disney World in
Speaker 1: the afternoon, and yes, that was so he sort of
Speaker 1: fits that. I think you'll this week, though, it would
Speaker 1: be Rory because he's so damn good and I haven't
Speaker 1: even considered betting on him, and because I'm just saying, hey,
Speaker 1: he's not Rory anymore because of the last nine months,
Speaker 1: and that might be foolish. It might be foolish. Having
Speaker 1: written him often, I would be chagrined, if you know,
Speaker 1: if he won, like wire to wire, I'm right with you.
Speaker 1: I even said on the radio and on a numbers
Speaker 1: game on Visa this morning that if I were to
Speaker 1: find a make miscut our kid, I would love to
Speaker 1: see what the price is on Rory. I was told
Speaker 1: after the show by someone who tweeted in forgive me
Speaker 1: for not knowing who it was, that the no is
Speaker 1: four to one. I could kind of see myself maybe
Speaker 1: taking a flyer on that. Rory's telling us he's not
Speaker 1: playing well. He's made good on that promise so far
Speaker 1: in recent weeks. Uh, So that's one guy I would
Speaker 1: consider there too, So I'd be right in the same
Speaker 1: boat with you. I'm with you, though, Joe. If Rory
Speaker 1: were to go on to win, it was kind of
Speaker 1: like brooks kept Goa when he won at Phoenix, where
Speaker 1: I think his odds were in the neighborhood of thirty
Speaker 1: to one, and it's, you know, I'm trying to correct
Speaker 1: myself for my past mistake and bet on him this time.
Speaker 1: When he was forty two one. There were a lot
Speaker 1: of people that had Brooks kept at the Phoenix and
Speaker 1: they said, when do you get brooks kept? Get thirty
Speaker 1: plus two one or whatever. It's kind of the same
Speaker 1: thing with Rory here. We've seen him as high as
Speaker 1: nineteen to one. Maybe he'll go to twenty. That's a
Speaker 1: really big number on Rory McElroy. So we'll all be
Speaker 1: kicking ourselves as we say, geez, why didn't we grab
Speaker 1: twenty two one on one of the greatest players of
Speaker 1: all time? For sure? Yeah, and it's it's not just
Speaker 1: all time. If you look at he is the best
Speaker 1: driver of the golf ball at Augusta since and the
Speaker 1: only person who was in his realm is Bubba Watson.
Speaker 1: So without question, Groory is the best right handed driver
Speaker 1: of the golf ball um in this generation at Augusta.
Speaker 1: The numbers he puts up strokes gained wives driving is incredible,
Speaker 1: so yeah, he he he gets that advantage off the tea.
Speaker 1: So it's yeah, I mean, I'm overlooking the guy who
Speaker 1: very possibly is going to be in better position standing
Speaker 1: over a second shot than everyone else as a tournament
Speaker 1: goes on. But we'll sit. Wasn't at last? It was
Speaker 1: November too, where I think he finished top ten and
Speaker 1: in the opening round, so he found his game for
Speaker 1: three out of the four rounds. For sure, I assume
Speaker 1: that neither of you. Maybe I shouldn't assume this. We're
Speaker 1: doing this Tuesday afternoon right here at the Circle pool.
Speaker 1: Obviously the Masters more than thirty six hours away, But
Speaker 1: so I'm gonna assume that you don't have any head
Speaker 1: to heads yet in your helts. I did play two Okay,
Speaker 1: go ahead, go ahead, Joe? What he got? Yeah, I
Speaker 1: have a number of them, but I will tell you
Speaker 1: my favorite one. And and I have noticed now that
Speaker 1: it's it's not like there's a Vegas rotation around matchups
Speaker 1: that different books to you know, are having play different matchups.
Speaker 1: But I got Ian Palter versus uh Phil Mickelson at
Speaker 1: and it it became my largest matchup that I kind
Speaker 1: of went two acts on on that versus what I
Speaker 1: was putting on everybody else, And I'll go ahead, Uh yeah,
Speaker 1: there it is. I got Pulter minus one of thirty
Speaker 1: verse Phil Nicholson over four rounds. I mean, look, unless
Speaker 1: Phil is it is pulling magic. And by the way,
Speaker 1: his putting has disintegrated at the Masters as his age
Speaker 1: has going on. Um Ian Palter has a great history
Speaker 1: on this course, and he's yeah, he's just a better
Speaker 1: golfer now than than Phil Nicholson. And that that's no
Speaker 1: slight at Phil, but he just can't consistently put together
Speaker 1: eighteen holes autolown seventy two. I I salivated it minus
Speaker 1: one thirty on Ian Poulter, and Ian Poulter just coming
Speaker 1: off a great performance at the match play and Austin
Speaker 1: and Phil when we talk about public teams and other sports,
Speaker 1: feels about as public as a coach. Yeah, And I
Speaker 1: think you know that kind of ties into Joe's bed here,
Speaker 1: that you're probably getting a really good price on Ian
Speaker 1: Poulter because the other guy is Phil Mickelson. Yeah, so
Speaker 1: you're not finding those matchups universal from book to book
Speaker 1: this time around. You know, Well, somebody was telling me
Speaker 1: last night they're like, hey, hey, you know I mentioned
Speaker 1: we were mentioned golfers that might be uh for instance,
Speaker 1: you were talking about Fitzpatrick and or maybe it was
Speaker 1: Cam Smith and you know, guys that I like, but
Speaker 1: their only matchup market from my guy the books I
Speaker 1: was looking at was against Webb Simpson, who I also
Speaker 1: kind of think is undervalued. So it's not that's not
Speaker 1: how I want to express bullishness on on Cam Smith
Speaker 1: or or Fitzpatrick. And then one guy was telling me, oh,
Speaker 1: my book, uh you know, he's he's maxed up with
Speaker 1: five different guys, and I'm like, you know, and so uh,
Speaker 1: these these are either offline or you know, paper heads, etcetera.
Speaker 1: So it just uh, you know, and sometimes people quote
Speaker 1: me stuff and I'm like, I can't find that for
Speaker 1: my guys. Yeah, there's kind of one universal set of ships.
Speaker 1: Then there's like half a dozen others, so it is
Speaker 1: kind of a crap shooting. Care to share the other
Speaker 1: one that you had besides Poulter over over filled? Oh
Speaker 1: that was the one, uh Gil, That was the one
Speaker 1: that I put the two acts on. There was one
Speaker 1: other one that I did a one and a half axle,
Speaker 1: the h Woaukie Waukee Neiman also Joaki Neemon minus one
Speaker 1: fifty over Max Homa. Um, and this sort of goes
Speaker 1: to Brady's thing about the Debutant said, and uh, um,
Speaker 1: I just you know, I think Neim max Holm is
Speaker 1: a great story. Um, you know, California kid. And the
Speaker 1: winning at Drive was was amazing. That was obviously his
Speaker 1: life goal. Um. I think it's a step up in
Speaker 1: class here. And and woaukein Neiman is is in much
Speaker 1: better form over the last you know, six months when
Speaker 1: you look at a round a round basis than uh,
Speaker 1: you know, even though he doesn't have the win that
Speaker 1: you know, sort of a high profile win that Holmer does. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm with you. Neiman has played here. Neiman played here
Speaker 1: as a as an amateur. I think it was three
Speaker 1: years ago, two or three years ago and made the cut.
Speaker 1: By the way, all de wut Wu tant mentioned unders
Speaker 1: cash when you said it early in the podcast less
Speaker 1: for five minutes, what did you bet head to hit?
Speaker 1: I am on Joakin Neemon as well. I was hoping
Speaker 1: Joe gravitated towards the same one, but I took Joakin
Speaker 1: Neemon minus one thirty over Abraham answer and Joe talked
Speaker 1: about how Abraham Answer had a great showing and then
Speaker 1: fell off the pace, and I think maybe he's possibly
Speaker 1: a victim of the November's conditions. Uh, he might find
Speaker 1: a much different complex here with the drier, faster, firmer conditions.
Speaker 1: And you talked about Niemen. Joe Neiman is a phenomenal player,
Speaker 1: and look what he did earlier in the year. I
Speaker 1: think he was minus forty sixty six under par for
Speaker 1: the two Hawaii tournaments and didn't win. I also think
Speaker 1: there's some correlation between Coppola, where he came in second,
Speaker 1: uh to augusta national Nieman as a guy I might
Speaker 1: do a top twenty bet on as well, but like
Speaker 1: him in that head to head over Abraham Answer. And
Speaker 1: then uh, two guys, Joe, I wonder what your opinion
Speaker 1: on this one is. I took Danny Burger at minus
Speaker 1: one thirty five over Cam Smith. Oh see, that's another
Speaker 1: example of where I think both the guys are relatively
Speaker 1: undervalued in terms of their you know, just odds. In general,
Speaker 1: I do like Burger. I mean I've got Burger in
Speaker 1: a top ten. Uh that ed Uh, you know, I'm
Speaker 1: looking at at my neutral ranking since the restart Daniel
Speaker 1: Burger and this is adjusted for field strength is number
Speaker 1: six in terms of strokes game per rame and the
Speaker 1: five guys ahead of them, uh in order JT busting Johnson, Bryson,
Speaker 1: Zander and John rom And. So Burger is in rarefied
Speaker 1: company up there in terms of who has played best
Speaker 1: on a per round basis since the restart. Uh. And
Speaker 1: he's got a nice history here, he has a path
Speaker 1: to victory. Okay, Um, First of all, there's a whole
Speaker 1: cross section of our audience that appreciates you betting Burger. Yes,
Speaker 1: I won't say who, but we appreciate it, you know
Speaker 1: what I mean? Uh? And then uh, finally guys, then
Speaker 1: top ten, top twenties. I guess you're some of the
Speaker 1: guys that you've been out right in some of your matchups.
Speaker 1: You just sort of funnel into those. Probably not everyone.
Speaker 1: I think Jason co crack I might find a spot
Speaker 1: for in the top twenty. Uh. Probably a Fitzpatrick as well.
Speaker 1: I think JT. I'll take. With the top ten, I'll
Speaker 1: probably stay away from Kepka. You know that that's a
Speaker 1: gamble of a play and and if it's the right gamble,
Speaker 1: he's gonna be in the mix, but I'm not gonna
Speaker 1: mess around with probably any more investment on him. Uh uh,
Speaker 1: can't Lee. I'll probably do for a top twenty as well. Um.
Speaker 1: I haven't quite dived into that market head first just yet.
Speaker 1: Same with you, Joe, Yeah, exactly. The only guy that
Speaker 1: that is in my that I have a top ten
Speaker 1: on that we hadn't talked about before is Can't Lee. Um.
Speaker 1: I will look guys at the top twenties. I am
Speaker 1: going to look exclusively for higher price guys that have
Speaker 1: a nice course history who maybe haven't played well over
Speaker 1: the last year because of age. So we're talking about
Speaker 1: here in Matt Coucher, Um, like I said Justin Rose earlier, Um,
Speaker 1: Oost Hazen, Adam Scott, all these guys, Haddeki Matsuyama who
Speaker 1: used to be a stalwart in my top ten bets
Speaker 1: the last two years. Um. And these are guys that
Speaker 1: have very nice histories here, um that I think might
Speaker 1: make them attractive top twenty bets. I love it, guys.
Speaker 1: I can't thank you enough. I can't thank the people
Speaker 1: at Circus Sports enough. Derrick Stevens, Mike Palm Stadium Swim.
Speaker 1: What a backdrop with here. This is terrible. Joe. You
Speaker 1: gotta you can. You should never come here. It's awful.
Speaker 1: Sorry about the weather. Joe appreciated man, Joe Pete, everybody
Speaker 1: at Magic rat SF on Twitter. It's a Bruce Springsteen
Speaker 1: uh uh nod on his Twitter handle. Where can people
Speaker 1: get the Tour Guide, which is still very applicable, and
Speaker 1: where can they find anything you will be doing in
Speaker 1: the future. Yeah, the the the Tour Guide En event,
Speaker 1: which which does give some nice Masters stories and and
Speaker 1: background on on the Strokes gained uh is still an
Speaker 1: Amazon um, and hopefully I'm aiming for a hardcover book.
Speaker 1: UM that will really be a sort of hopefully a
Speaker 1: tome on the Masters in the Strokes Gained era. UM.
Speaker 1: You know, we'll we'll look out for that. But the
Speaker 1: goal is pre Christmas publication for all those fathers, sons,
Speaker 1: you know, stocking stuff free Christmas one we're talking that's right. Wow,
Speaker 1: I love it, Joe Pete, everybody, Joe, thank you so much.
Speaker 1: Brady Cannon, host of long Shots, the greatest golf beending
Speaker 1: show there ever has been in on Earth at Visa
Speaker 1: and when she does with West Reynolds and Matt Humans
Speaker 1: and the podcast version of long Shots in edition with
Speaker 1: s v P on both this time around, this listen
Speaker 1: week going to be great. Thank you very much for
Speaker 1: having me and honor to be with you two guys.
Speaker 1: Joe have admired your work for a long time. Thanks
Speaker 1: for stopping by. Man, Thank you, Joe. Appreciate you guys.
Speaker 1: I'm half faxed. I will be fully faxed and maybe
Speaker 1: out there for the p G A or the U
Speaker 1: S open and will certainly say hi, yes, half vaxed.
Speaker 1: I am fully vexed both of you. So thank you
Speaker 1: all eighty five masters, Thanks for listening. Good luck with
Speaker 1: all your bets from all of us on the Beating
Speaker 1: the Book Podcast. Enjoy Yeah,