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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penel Podcast. I'm Paul swing you

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Speaker 1: along with my co host Lisa Brahmas. Each day we

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Speaker 1: bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for you

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Speaker 1: and your money, whether at the grocery store or the

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Speaker 1: trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple podcast

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Speaker 1: or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as at

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com. Well, I'm just gonna keep asking this

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Speaker 1: question throughout the morning. Is it over? Are we done

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Speaker 1: with the attention between the US and you were on

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Speaker 1: joining US? Now? Is I have a COMMEL practice head

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Speaker 1: focused on the Middle East, North Africa as other well

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Speaker 1: as others at Eurasia Group joining US now on the phone?

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Speaker 1: Can I get it? Just get a sense? Is it over?

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Speaker 1: I am? Well, let's I think we're off the peak

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Speaker 1: of the crisis. The Araanians conducted what is I think

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Speaker 1: a largely symbolic attack on basis that hosts U S

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Speaker 1: troops in Iraq. Those attacks were very calibrated. They were

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Speaker 1: designed not to cause casualties or not to create conditions

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Speaker 1: for Trump to overreact. The President speaking in in a

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Speaker 1: few minutes, so we'll hear more from him, but I

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Speaker 1: expect movement towards less less tensions. So I am. Are

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Speaker 1: you surprised that the Iranian response was I guess as

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Speaker 1: restrained as it was because I guess that what we

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Speaker 1: had heard up until today was the general that was

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Speaker 1: taken out was such a large figure and an important

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Speaker 1: figure in Tehran. Are you surprised that the response wasn't

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Speaker 1: maybe even more pronounced. Well, I think that everything that

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Speaker 1: we've been hearing from the Iranians hinted as at a

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Speaker 1: much more robust military response. So to a certain extent,

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Speaker 1: they did exercise the level of restraint over here. So um,

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Speaker 1: I think I'm pretty sure that there are regional powers

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Speaker 1: that have tried to to be into ease tensions, international

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Speaker 1: powers as well to really calm their Iranians down. Now,

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Speaker 1: another factor I think that helped calm the situation is

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Speaker 1: that the Iranians are thinking the long term. They want

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Speaker 1: the US out of Iran, and they're fine with that

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Speaker 1: as a long term victory, something that cements their power

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Speaker 1: in the Middle East. So let's talk about that, because

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Speaker 1: that was one of my main questions when I was

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Speaker 1: reading all of this Iran. Iran wants the US out

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Speaker 1: of Iraq, right, I mean it wants them to bodraw

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Speaker 1: their troops. Does sort of pushing down the tensions accelerate

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Speaker 1: that process, and it appears that the Iraqis are more

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Speaker 1: eager to get the U S troops out. Well, I

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Speaker 1: think that the less miniatary confrontation that you have in

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Speaker 1: Iraq between the US and Iran, the easier it will

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Speaker 1: be for President Trump to withdraw forces. He can't easily

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Speaker 1: do it under fire as and when he's been attacked

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Speaker 1: in Iraq left and right. When there are tensions between Iran,

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Speaker 1: moving towards a widespread confrontation absent that any form of

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Speaker 1: really going down away, moving away from tension creates easier

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Speaker 1: conditions for that. But again, I think that there are

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Speaker 1: local dynamics here. The ir Arcus themselves feel that US

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Speaker 1: presence in the country has become challenging a little bit problematic.

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Speaker 1: So I think it will see more domestic pressure on

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Speaker 1: the US, perhaps, if not to withdraw, to severely restrict

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Speaker 1: US operations in the country. Well, at the top of

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Speaker 1: the hour, we will be hearing from President Trump. Will

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Speaker 1: you'll be making comments on the Iran situation? What do

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Speaker 1: you what will you be listening for in his comments,

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Speaker 1: what do you think Iranians Iranians will be listening for.

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Speaker 1: I think the Iranians are expecting big boards the President

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Speaker 1: to declare victory, victory, victorian, that he's done what no

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Speaker 1: other could could do. I think that's that's that will

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Speaker 1: happen in some way, shape or form. I think the

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Speaker 1: key issue for the Iranians is to see whether Mr

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Speaker 1: Trump will authorize some form of follow up in terms

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Speaker 1: of reaction. That's what they really care about. If there

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Speaker 1: is no US response in in reaction to the missile

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Speaker 1: attacks from Iran, I think the Iranians would feel much

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Speaker 1: more comfortable as and we're moving away from a sharper escalation.

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Speaker 1: So that's what I think what the press press conferences about.

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Speaker 1: The press conference for the President himself is not just

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Speaker 1: about Iran. This is about positioning himself as a strong leader,

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Speaker 1: someone that has been able to do things that other

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Speaker 1: leaders or other US presidents were not able to do.

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Speaker 1: So it's it's also made for domestic consumptional for domestic

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Speaker 1: audience in the US. So let's talk about the price

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Speaker 1: of oil. It is down today and having the biggest

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Speaker 1: two day down draft since December two, and I'm wondering

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Speaker 1: whether this is the beginning of more to come in

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Speaker 1: the senses as people realize, or isn't gonna necessarily be

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Speaker 1: a disruption and supply all of a sudden things start

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Speaker 1: to look a little bit more oversupplied with a demand

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Speaker 1: that seems to be basically balanced at this point. Well,

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Speaker 1: I think that is that's a very interesting idea. Perhaps

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Speaker 1: some of that risk that will will will be taken off,

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Speaker 1: I think will be reflected in all the prices, so

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Speaker 1: we'll the some form of a depth, maybe a few dollars.

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Speaker 1: But again, it's not that Iran or U s Irn

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Speaker 1: tensions have become zero that we're returning to a stable equilibrium.

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Speaker 1: There are many problems still in the Middle East that

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Speaker 1: could cause those disruptions. It's not like we've we've returned stability.

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Speaker 1: The demand and supply picture, I think is a little

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Speaker 1: bit complicated. But we do have the US China trade

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Speaker 1: agreement that could also help maybe provide some boost to

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Speaker 1: oil prices, maybe not to maybe not lift them up

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Speaker 1: to seventy. But I think we're in a world where

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Speaker 1: sixty five dollars it seems to be the bottom or

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Speaker 1: or could be the bottom in this environment. Uh, absent

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Speaker 1: any real confrontation or real outages in the Middle East,

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Speaker 1: you're not really talking about oil moving north of seventy

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Speaker 1: on a or in a strong direction. Really, we need

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Speaker 1: to see data from US shell hard evidence that US

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Speaker 1: shows the seb it in that investments in US share

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Speaker 1: that is actually much lower, much more prudent, and therefore

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Speaker 1: supply it will be limited. So I am get a

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Speaker 1: sense of kind of the next steps for Iran. I

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Speaker 1: guess from your perspective, what is it in Iran's best

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Speaker 1: interest rate here to say, okay, this is over Essentially, Well,

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Speaker 1: I don't think the irene is are going to be

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Speaker 1: a fully thing that it's over. They'll say that they

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Speaker 1: are fighting really an effort or struggle to get the

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Speaker 1: US out to make the region region governed government by

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Speaker 1: states that are inherently part of it. And I think

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Speaker 1: the key word here is get the getting the US

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Speaker 1: to withdraw from different places. I don't think that the U.

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Speaker 1: S C. Run relationship is going to be okay anytime soon.

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Speaker 1: Mr Trump has withdrawn from the j C p o A,

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Speaker 1: he has killed a senior Iranian commander he had, he

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Speaker 1: has sanctioned the country. So we still have a long

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Speaker 1: term issue around the US Iran relationship and whether you

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Speaker 1: can get a pathway that is sustainable that gets us

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Speaker 1: away from confrontation and towards the excavation. But certainly we

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Speaker 1: were away from the peak of a crisis. Just real

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Speaker 1: quick here about thirty seconds. I'm wondering President Trump is

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Speaker 1: going to speak in response to the Iranian retaliation. What

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Speaker 1: do you expect him to say? Or what do you want?

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Speaker 1: What do you what are you looking for? I think

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Speaker 1: it's going to say that that the Iranian response was

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Speaker 1: weak and therefore there there it's not necessary for the

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Speaker 1: US to move and do much more, and that US

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Speaker 1: power remains robust, and he is ready when their Indians

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Speaker 1: do something that crosses the line to respond. Am Kamal,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us a M as

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Speaker 1: a practice head Middle East and North Africa for the

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Speaker 1: Eurasia Group. Some of the smartest folks out there, and

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Speaker 1: we're talking about geopolitics. He's based uh in London and

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Speaker 1: Tom King was recently this earlier this week at their

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Speaker 1: offices at Eurasia Group, getting a great over view of

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Speaker 1: all things geopolitical, whether it's the Middle East or China

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Speaker 1: and Hong Kong. They do some great work and we

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Speaker 1: appreciate them. Coming on Bloomberg Radio, the question of the

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Speaker 1: day is it over? Are we done with the brief,

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Speaker 1: very brief, if perhaps non existent, and recognizable turmoil that

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Speaker 1: we saw in markets due to Iran US relations tends

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Speaker 1: tensing up joining us now Scott Reren, Senior Global market strategist,

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Speaker 1: it was Fargo Investment Institute overseers overseeing nearly two trillion

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Speaker 1: dollars joining us from St. Louis, Missouri? Is it over? Scott? Well, Lisa,

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Speaker 1: Happy New Year? And probably while the market appears to

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Speaker 1: think we're not going to see uh too much of

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Speaker 1: an escalation, you know, we think at least in the

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Speaker 1: in the near term, we're likely to see uh some

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Speaker 1: more tip for tad, a little bit more escalation. But

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Speaker 1: you know that's not really changing and has not changed

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Speaker 1: really what our outlook is as we look out over, Scott,

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Speaker 1: give us your outlook for given the incredible kind of

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Speaker 1: market uh. You know a response we saw in what

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Speaker 1: do you do for an encore here? Well, I tell

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Speaker 1: you it's it's it's tough, Paul, and what we've been

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Speaker 1: doing UM. For during the second half of we raised

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Speaker 1: a little cash, we backed off of industrials, We've got

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Speaker 1: a little less cyclical, And that's pretty much our stance

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Speaker 1: right now because for us, UH stocks are very close

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Speaker 1: to fair value. We still like tech, we still like

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Speaker 1: consumer discretionary, we still like financials. But you know, if

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Speaker 1: we see a total return somewhere in the mid single

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Speaker 1: digit area, I think that's about right UM for us.

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Speaker 1: Probably the the the upside surprise. You have to ask yourself,

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Speaker 1: you know, how much chasing are we going to see here,

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Speaker 1: because there's a lot of underinvested, whether they're professionals or

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Speaker 1: retail investors, a lot of people with cash on the sidelines.

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Speaker 1: We've seen a little chasing here. And then I think

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Speaker 1: also a factor that that could make our outlook too conservatives,

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Speaker 1: too conservative, is if we see UH the international economy

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Speaker 1: stabilized and do a little bit better than what we thought.

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Speaker 1: So I think those are a couple of the factors

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Speaker 1: that we're trying to keep a close eye on, trying

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Speaker 1: to project, But for right now, we think stocks are

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Speaker 1: pretty close to fair value. There was a conversation on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Television this morning about this idea that seems to

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Speaker 1: be pervasive in markets, which is, honestly, unless we get

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Speaker 1: a massive shock, stocks are going to keep rallying. Risk

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Speaker 1: assets look good and you don't want to miss out.

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Speaker 1: The problem is, if we see a shock is the

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Speaker 1: big caveat and it seems like if we see a shock,

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Speaker 1: everyone's going to try to escape out of the same

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Speaker 1: narrow exit. How concerned are you about the lack of

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Speaker 1: hedging and sort of the crowdedness of some of these

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Speaker 1: risk trades. Well, you know, a lot of times, you know,

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Speaker 1: as she is, you approach a market high, and if

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Speaker 1: you look at the performance, for instance, between the SNP

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Speaker 1: equalated index and just the S and P, you know,

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Speaker 1: the performance is starting to widen there a little bit.

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Speaker 1: It's nowhere near what you usually see at the market top.

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Speaker 1: So really, you know, I think there's a decent amount

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Speaker 1: of liquidity in the market, but if you really see

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Speaker 1: a meaningful shock um as is usually the case, you

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Speaker 1: know there's there's a lack of liquidity on the way down.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the bids just go away, um and and

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Speaker 1: and there's not a lot of people stepping in to buy,

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Speaker 1: and that's where you see these big gaps down, So

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Speaker 1: I think I'm not sure that's going to be any

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Speaker 1: worse than it has been on meaningful, big shocks in

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Speaker 1: the past. And it's certainly something that you want to

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Speaker 1: think about. And you know that's why, you know, we've

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Speaker 1: talked to our our clients. You know, we had leaned

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Speaker 1: hard towards stocks, you know, for really the last eight years,

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Speaker 1: and for instance, you know, if you're in a sixty

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Speaker 1: forty stock bomb type of portfolio, we want our clients

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Speaker 1: to be pretty close to that right now, because, as

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Speaker 1: I said, you know, there's a lot of disks out there.

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Speaker 1: Stocks are not cheap um, and we just want to

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Speaker 1: be a little more careful here than we had been

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Speaker 1: in previous years. Scott, I want to get your thoughts

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Speaker 1: on valuations in the equity market. We've seen obviously move

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Speaker 1: up in the sp with very little to know earnings growth.

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Speaker 1: Give us a sense of kind of where we are

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Speaker 1: valuation wise historically. Well, you know, we've got a one

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Speaker 1: seventy five number out there, so right now you're looking

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Speaker 1: at about eighteen points six times uh this year's earnings,

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Speaker 1: and if you look at you know, over the last

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Speaker 1: twenty years or so, you know, the average forward price

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Speaker 1: to earnings ratio would be let's say sixteen points three

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Speaker 1: something like that, so you know you're certainly trading at

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Speaker 1: a premium to that. Now you could make the argument,

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Speaker 1: uh that you know, we're in a lower interest rate environment,

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Speaker 1: that feds eazy, people are under invested, and so it's

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Speaker 1: common that you get this push up in valuations in

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Speaker 1: the in the later stages of a cycle. So you know,

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Speaker 1: valuations are are above average. Um, we would argue that

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Speaker 1: they're not meaningfully stretched. I mean, if you look back

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Speaker 1: at the FED model, and I haven't run these numbers lately,

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Speaker 1: but if you looked at that correlation over a long

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Speaker 1: period time, it probably suggests the p on the SMP

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Speaker 1: should be you know, twenty eight or some crazy number

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Speaker 1: like that. So you know, these correlations haven't held. It

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Speaker 1: makes some sense that we're a little bit of a premium,

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Speaker 1: but we don't think there's too much upside in terms

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Speaker 1: of evaluations from here. We need to see some underlying

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Speaker 1: earnings growth. Scott, thanks so much for joining us. We

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Speaker 1: appreciate you coming on. Scott Wren, senior global market strategist

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Speaker 1: for Wells Fargo Investment Institute, joining us on the phone

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Speaker 1: from St. Louis time to check in with Bloomberg Opinion.

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Speaker 1: We're joined by Opinion Coomas Justin Fox. He joins us

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Speaker 1: here and I'm Bloomberg Interactive Brokers to deal with a

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Speaker 1: fascinating come about a story that I'm very interested in,

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Speaker 1: which is has the US past peak auto? Are people

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Speaker 1: still going to drive cars going forward? Justin takes a

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Speaker 1: look at it in terms of our team still driving cars.

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Speaker 1: So Justin, thanks so much for joining us. What's going

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Speaker 1: I know when I turned seventeen that day I was

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Speaker 1: at the DMV getting my license. I never looked back.

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Speaker 1: Is that still happening? Um less and less, although a

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Speaker 1: lot of it among sixteen and seventeen year olds is

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Speaker 1: basically because in lots of states you can barely drive

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Speaker 1: even after you get your license. There are all of

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Speaker 1: these restrictions, and so there's really been a collapse in

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Speaker 1: the percentage of sixteen year olds getting license. It's a

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Speaker 1: little more than half what it was in the eighties,

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Speaker 1: back when we got our lessons. Um and you get

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Speaker 1: two older ages and it and it's not as big

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Speaker 1: a decline, but basically every age court in the cohort

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Speaker 1: in the US below forty five is less. People are

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Speaker 1: less likely to have licenses than they were in the

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Speaker 1: early eighties. How much is this due to people moving

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Speaker 1: to cities and moving away from more suburban and rural areas.

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Speaker 1: I mean, since the eighties, I think most development and

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Speaker 1: most population growth has been in suburbian not in cities,

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Speaker 1: even though there's been a modest return over the past

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Speaker 1: um twenty years or so. And I mean this trend

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Speaker 1: first got a lot of attention um probably seven or

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Speaker 1: eight years ago. A researcher named Michael Sivak, who was

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Speaker 1: then at the University of Michigan, sort of pointed it out.

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Speaker 1: The media picked up on it, and a lot of

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Speaker 1: it was a pretty precipitous decline in like two thousand seven,

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Speaker 1: two thousand eight, two thousand nine, and a lot of

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Speaker 1: that was gas was really expensive and the economy was

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Speaker 1: awful and there was so there was a little bit

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Speaker 1: of a bounce back in two thousand fifteen and two

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Speaker 1: thousand sixteen. But what's really interesting is that has now stopped.

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Speaker 1: When you look at the percentage of teams getting licenses

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Speaker 1: and everybody getting licenses, it's just stopped rising. Let's see

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Speaker 1: uber impact, you know, when I was down at Duke

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Speaker 1: University recently, somebody was telling me, like when I was there,

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Speaker 1: parking impossible to get now, like lots of parking spaces

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Speaker 1: around the kids aren't bringing their cars because they just

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Speaker 1: uber everywhere. Yeah, I mean, I'm sure that is an

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Speaker 1: element in a lot of places. It's like sixteen year

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Speaker 1: olds aren't supposed to be able to take uber um,

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Speaker 1: but happens all uh man. They can tell you with

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Speaker 1: their parents and all, but supposedly. But I'm sure that

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Speaker 1: is part of it. There are alternatives like that. I'm

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Speaker 1: sure smaller families are part of it, so there aren't

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Speaker 1: five different kids to get around. If it's one or two,

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Speaker 1: then a parent might be able to do it and

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Speaker 1: they spend more time with them. And I mean, there

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Speaker 1: was a big like public transportation um sort of hit

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Speaker 1: it's all modern low in the US in the in

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Speaker 1: the eighties, and then had another drop in the mid

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Speaker 1: nineties when gas prices were super cheap and and the

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Speaker 1: economy was booming. But it rose a lot um through

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Speaker 1: about two thousand fourteen. But it's not rising lightly either,

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Speaker 1: so it is kind of I mean, one thing, if

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Speaker 1: you look at older Americans or just people with jobs,

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Speaker 1: telecommuting people. More people are able to do jobs without

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Speaker 1: driving there. But I think it's really confusing. I gotta say,

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Speaker 1: I'm not I'm not totally getting any of these explanations

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Speaker 1: because I know I grew up in New York City,

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Speaker 1: and yes, I failed my driver's task more than once.

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Speaker 1: It wasn't my fault, let's not talk about it. But

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Speaker 1: it was a sick shift and the guy hated me.

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Speaker 1: But it's okay, I've forgiven you if you're listening. But

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Speaker 1: I will say sort of, um, I will say that

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Speaker 1: it was a source of deep anxiety growing up, Like

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Speaker 1: what happens if you're you can't leave a big city.

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Speaker 1: I mean, how do you not have a license? How

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Speaker 1: do you travel somewhere and rent a car? I'm sorry

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Speaker 1: that I just don't believe that simply uh, having an

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Speaker 1: uber once in a while changes that. I think, I mean,

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Speaker 1: for most people, it doesn't. It's still clear that most

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Speaker 1: Americans get driver's licenses, most Americans have cars, but I

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Speaker 1: think there's a larger minority that will not. And I

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Speaker 1: just and I don't you know, I don't see car

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Speaker 1: use collapsing. But it's pretty clear when you look at

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Speaker 1: like per capita miles traveled, it's stopped rising. Well. But

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Speaker 1: this the interesting point here is how autonomous driving will

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Speaker 1: actually play into this. And I know that my ten

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Speaker 1: year old sometimes asks me, you know, am I ever

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Speaker 1: gonna have to go to the driver's license? Do I

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Speaker 1: have to get on that. I'm like, no, no, no, please,

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Speaker 1: You're fine. And I think about it, and you know,

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Speaker 1: is there going to be just this model of managing

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Speaker 1: these cars that are kind of driving themselves around and

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Speaker 1: maximizing their use instead of having people with a bunch

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Speaker 1: of cars parked in there driving. I mean, yes, someday,

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Speaker 1: but I I will say, people have spent a huge

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Speaker 1: amount of time and energy talking and thinking about that

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Speaker 1: over the past few years, and it doesn't seem like

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Speaker 1: it's going to be happening for another decade or two

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Speaker 1: at the earliest. So your son is still gonna have

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Speaker 1: to drive if if you want them to drive. So

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Speaker 1: I'll tell him. I'll tell him lots of scary stories.

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Speaker 1: When the guy comes in and says, are you scared? Little?

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Speaker 1: I hate nervous drivers. Anyway, I'm not I'm not going

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Speaker 1: to relive it over on the air, except that I

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Speaker 1: just did, how many cars do you have, faull Um

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Speaker 1: boy in our family? I'm gonna say three, yes, why

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Speaker 1: have four kids? Are you know that that that's such

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Speaker 1: an one of them as a pickup truck, which my

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Speaker 1: friends are just shocked that we have in this And

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Speaker 1: how old were they when I started driving all of them?

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Speaker 1: So he had more than more than two kids, so

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Speaker 1: that they had to shuttle themselves around. Justin Fox, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much for being with us. Justin Fox is

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Speaker 1: a Bloomberg opinion columnist. Great column about lots of American

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Speaker 1: teens still shutting cars right now. My big question is

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Speaker 1: given the fact that Iran can't necessarily be seen internally

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Speaker 1: as standing down, I do wonder what the response is

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Speaker 1: going to be. Chris lew joining us for now, Senior

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Speaker 1: fellow at the University of Virginia Miller Center, also former

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Speaker 1: Deputy Secretary of Labor under President Obama. He has served

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Speaker 1: in a variety of administrations over decades. Thank you so

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Speaker 1: much for being with us. On the phone from Charlottesville, Virginia.

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Speaker 1: I just want to first get reaction. If you were

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Speaker 1: listening to President Trump's comments on Iran, what was your takeaway? Well,

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Speaker 1: I thought it was encouraging in the sense that, you know,

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Speaker 1: he was offered an off ramp to de escalate, and

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Speaker 1: it appears that he is taking that for now. Um,

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Speaker 1: it will be interesting to see what the Iranians think

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Speaker 1: of this. I mean, he he was, in my mind

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Speaker 1: taking sort of a premature victory lap. I'm not sure

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Speaker 1: that will play that well, and I think there are

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Speaker 1: still remain questions what the long term strategy is. I mean,

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Speaker 1: he talked about imposing additional economic sanctions, trying to get

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Speaker 1: NATO involved in this, trying to negotiate a new deal.

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Speaker 1: But you know, if we simply take a look at

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Speaker 1: where we are now and where we were when he

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Speaker 1: took office, it's hard to say that we are in

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Speaker 1: a better situation now than where we were with the

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Speaker 1: Iran nuclear deal. It's interesting, Chris, maybe take a step

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Speaker 1: back here, given what we heard from the president here,

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Speaker 1: what do you think the administration's strategy is here just

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Speaker 1: over the less several days as it relates to our rent.

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Speaker 1: You know, I think it's been a little confusing, and

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Speaker 1: I think that's you know, the legitimate questions that members

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Speaker 1: of Congress are asking about, you know, whether there was

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Speaker 1: uh an imminent attack that they were trying to prevent

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Speaker 1: and killing celemony. Uh, you know what the long term

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Speaker 1: strategy is with regard to run and so I think, Um, look,

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Speaker 1: I think it was helpful to have the President out

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Speaker 1: there speaking, but I'm not sure he necessarily answered any

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Speaker 1: of those questions. I'm wondering also what the broader message

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Speaker 1: from this incident would be if URON does not retaliate

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Speaker 1: any further. I know that there have been a number

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Speaker 1: of reports that Kim John un over in North Korea

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Speaker 1: is suspected to be incentivized to double down on his

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Speaker 1: nuclear production simply because he doesn't want to be taken

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Speaker 1: out by a drone either. So, uh, was what was

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Speaker 1: your sense of that? Well, I think that's exactly right.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think, um, the minute the president ripped

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Speaker 1: up a RAN nuclear deal, it makes it certainly harder

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Speaker 1: to try to um execute any kind of deal with

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Speaker 1: North Korea, because you know, the president the United States

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Speaker 1: can't be trusted to live up to their arrangements. UM.

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Speaker 1: I also think you know, this was as much of

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Speaker 1: anything unimportant, Um, the last night's attack was a way

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Speaker 1: that the Iranian leadership could show that there are people

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Speaker 1: that they were taking this seriously, but you know, I

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Speaker 1: think we should make the mistake. I mean, this is

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Speaker 1: a very dangerous regime that will figure out other ways

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Speaker 1: to strike back either Americans, allies, American businesses in ways

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Speaker 1: that maybe are as dangerous but are less able, were

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Speaker 1: less able to put our fingers that they did. Chris,

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Speaker 1: there's some that are suggesting that there is some politics

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Speaker 1: involved here and what's going on with Iran in terms

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Speaker 1: of uh the United States, uh, you know, taking out

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Speaker 1: General Solimany as it relates to impeachment. Do you think

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Speaker 1: there's a tie in there to what extent you know, Look,

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Speaker 1: I I I don't want to speculate on that. I'd

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Speaker 1: like to think that this was, um, this was a

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Speaker 1: thought out strategy. UM. That being said, Look, obviously we've

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Speaker 1: been talking about this attack for what the last five

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Speaker 1: or six days and not talking about impeachment. Impeachment is

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Speaker 1: still obviously out there on the horizon and probably shorter

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Speaker 1: term horizon. But I think it does ray sort of

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Speaker 1: broader issues as to um, what the administration's broader policy is,

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Speaker 1: and it's very muddled at the moment, and I'm sure

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Speaker 1: the actions over the last five or six days haven't

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Speaker 1: really clarified that in any way. What's your sense of

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Speaker 1: the recent developments about impeachment, about the fact that Senate

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Speaker 1: Democrats are trying to figure out how to pass it

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Speaker 1: off to Senate without necessarily getting a sort of wash,

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Speaker 1: a whitewashing of the whole affair. Yeah, you know, I look,

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Speaker 1: I think it's interesting. I mean, um, you know, UM,

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Speaker 1: I think the speaker, Speaker Pelosi will probably send over

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Speaker 1: the article's impeachment, she says soon. Um. And what we've

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Speaker 1: seen over the last couple of weeks since the House

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Speaker 1: past impeachment was a number of developments. We've seen, um,

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Speaker 1: some important reporting out of the New York Times about

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Speaker 1: other meetings that happened in the White House, UM on

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Speaker 1: the holding of Ukrainian aid that we didn't know about

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Speaker 1: an advance. We've had the release of some documents that show, um, um,

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Speaker 1: greater involvement by the White House in this decision. And

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Speaker 1: we obviously have the big news from the other day

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Speaker 1: that John Bolton, the former National Security Advisors, willing to testify.

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Speaker 1: So what that shows you is that there are additional

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Speaker 1: a lot of additional documents, additional witnesses and testimony, and

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Speaker 1: So even if, UM, even if Democrats were not able

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Speaker 1: to get an agreement up front that those documents and

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Speaker 1: witnesses would be part of a Senate trial, they've certainly

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Speaker 1: made a public case that we're only seeing basically the

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Speaker 1: tip of the iceberg right now. UM. This I think

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Speaker 1: will clearly be revisited. Even if the Senate trial starts

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Speaker 1: without an agreement on additional witnesses, there will be motion

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Speaker 1: by Senate Democrats to try to call those witnesses. And frankly,

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Speaker 1: a lot of this is going to rely on whether

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Speaker 1: it was handful of moderate Senate Republicans UM, and whether

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Speaker 1: they're willing to break from their leadership and call some

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Speaker 1: of these witnesses. So we're speaking with Chris Lucy and

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Speaker 1: your fellow at the University of Virginia Miller Center, also

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Speaker 1: former Deputy Secretary of Labor under President Obama, host of

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Speaker 1: other governmental service jobs that he has served in roles

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Speaker 1: that he has served throughout his career. I am wondering,

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Speaker 1: you know, I want to go back to Paul's question

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Speaker 1: where he was asking about the relation between UH the

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Speaker 1: strikes over in Iran as well as UH, you know,

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00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:40,080
Speaker 1: the impeachment trials and does this give President Trump much

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Speaker 1: more popularity among Republicans and support among Republicans just because

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Speaker 1: it seems to have been incredibly successful. You know, look,

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Speaker 1: I think I think the jury is still out on

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Speaker 1: this right now, Um the um. Some of the recent

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Speaker 1: polling it shouldn't surprise you. I mean everything in this

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Speaker 1: country right now breaks on partisan lines, shows that about

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Speaker 1: fifty of Americans UM opposed the president's handling of the

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Speaker 1: situation in Iran right now. UM. You know again, I

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00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:11,760
Speaker 1: think we'll have to wait and see what the longer

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Speaker 1: term developments on this are. I mean, you were only,

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Speaker 1: as I said, you know, five or six days from

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Speaker 1: the original um killing, and I think obviously less than

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Speaker 1: twenty four hours away from last night's events. And so

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Speaker 1: we're gonna have to let this play out a couple

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Speaker 1: more news cycles to see what happens. So, Chris, just

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Speaker 1: going back to impeachment real quickly. I'm just kind of

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Speaker 1: wondering what next steps are because we're obviously an uncharted

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Speaker 1: territory here. Who do you think has the leverage here? Uh,

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00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:41,119
Speaker 1: between the Democrats and Republicans here, because it's you know,

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Speaker 1: Speaker Pelosi withholding the articles impeachment is unusual, I guess,

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Speaker 1: just given by the little bit of precedent with that

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Speaker 1: we do have. Well, look, I think the initial leverage

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Speaker 1: right now is being held by the Senate Republican leader,

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Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell. I mean, obviously he controls um the he

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Speaker 1: controls the process. He's got the fifty one votes to

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Speaker 1: move forward. Word. But I think, you know, I think

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00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:05,119
Speaker 1: the challenge will be for him to keep some of

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Speaker 1: those moderate Republicans in line when Senate Democrats start asking

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Speaker 1: for additional votes and so, um, you know, I think that,

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Speaker 1: you know, I think we've only sort of seen the

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Speaker 1: first um, you know, um card being played at this point,

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Speaker 1: and it will be interesting to see how things play out.

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Speaker 1: And and again, you know, whether House Democrats try in

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Speaker 1: some way to call John Bolton as some part of

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Speaker 1: a formal hearing. I mean, he said he will testify

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Speaker 1: but for the Senate. But um, there's no reason, frankly

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Speaker 1: at this point why you would not testify before the

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Speaker 1: House as well. Chris LEU, thank you so much for

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Speaker 1: being with us in all your commentary. Chris Lew Senior

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Speaker 1: Fellow at the University of Virginia Miller Center, also former

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Speaker 1: Deputy Secretary of Labor under President Obama, among other roles.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg pl podcast. You can

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00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:49,480
Speaker 1: subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever

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00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:52,719
Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. Paul Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at

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00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:55,399
Speaker 1: pt Sweeney and Lisa bram Woyds I'm on Twitter at

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00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:58,440
Speaker 1: Lisa Bramwoyits one before the podcast. You can always catch

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Speaker 1: us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio