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Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm Joe WI Isn't and I'm Tracy Alloway. Tracy obviously,

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Speaker 1: one of our themes for like years now has essentially

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Speaker 1: just been all of these ways in which it seems

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Speaker 1: like the supply side of the economy is like kind

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Speaker 1: of broken or put under review. I would say the

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Speaker 1: pressure of the last two years has revealed a lot

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Speaker 1: of weak points. Yeah, so I called this the choke

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Speaker 1: point economy, um, which maybe I should have come up

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Speaker 1: with a catchier title, but it was basically the idea

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Speaker 1: that the extraordinary events of the pandemic had exposed the

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Speaker 1: shortages or choke points in things that the economy actually

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Speaker 1: really needs. Everything from semiconductors, which is kind of where

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Speaker 1: we started our supply chain exploration two, I mean vaccines themselves, right,

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Speaker 1: some countries couldn't get enough vaccines, others had too many,

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Speaker 1: and you can expand it to tons of different things,

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Speaker 1: everything from housing to healthcare. Right. It's kind of like

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Speaker 1: this running joke of Odd Lots listeners on Twitter, and

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Speaker 1: you're like, this is this is the new thing that's broken.

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Speaker 1: When our Tracy and Joe going to do a show

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Speaker 1: on it. But it also does you know when you

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Speaker 1: when you have this like these myriad broken aspects of

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Speaker 1: the supply chain or shortages or choke points or bottlenecks,

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Speaker 1: you know, it's sort of like gets the question like

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Speaker 1: is there like a bigger effort that can be made

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Speaker 1: because you can, like you can tackle these one at

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Speaker 1: a time, and of course that's being done in private

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Speaker 1: companies and governmental work on that one at a time,

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Speaker 1: But is there like a broader, a broader effort that

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Speaker 1: can be made where large maybe government involvement, regulations, something

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Speaker 1: such that we just have like more robust supply, more

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Speaker 1: robust supply side of the economy. Absolutely, and I think

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Speaker 1: for the past year or so we've certainly seen pockets

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Speaker 1: and indications of that, right like the Biden administrations Build

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Speaker 1: Back Better Program, the Inflation Reduction Act, all of those

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Speaker 1: are to some extent aimed at increasing capacity, building out

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Speaker 1: vital infrastructure and things like that. So it does feel

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Speaker 1: like there is a recognition that this is an issue,

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Speaker 1: but the solutions are still kind of tricky, and even

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Speaker 1: if we all agree to build more capacity, it's going

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Speaker 1: to take a while. There's still going to be questions

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Speaker 1: over how best to do that. It's going to be

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Speaker 1: tough to identify some of those cassidy constraints, like what

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Speaker 1: actually is the constraint exactly? Um, you know, it's funny

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Speaker 1: because for years there was, you know, supply side economics

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Speaker 1: in modern parlance, has this very specific idea and I

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Speaker 1: think of like the Reagan era and a bunch of

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Speaker 1: people's economists who sort of made their bones in that era.

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Speaker 1: But really it just made like tax cuts, like really

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Speaker 1: like when people say supply side economics, they say tax cuts,

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Speaker 1: tax cuts for companies make them more company, right, just

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Speaker 1: make it easier for everyone to produce more by by

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Speaker 1: cutting text. Now there is this sort of revival of

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Speaker 1: so called supply side economics, a certain supply side progressivism.

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Speaker 1: We've heard Jenny Yelling talk about it, which is no, actually,

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Speaker 1: supply side economics doesn't have to just be tax cuts.

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Speaker 1: It can actually be about all this the Chips Act, etcetera,

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Speaker 1: active efforts in which the government, in theory can play

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Speaker 1: a productive role in making more robust, resilient, and abundant

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Speaker 1: supply side capacity, which speaks about the shortages the inflation

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Speaker 1: that we're experiencing right now. And just like what does

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Speaker 1: it mean to have an economy that just delivers more

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Speaker 1: goods for the public. Yeah, and to some extent, it's

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Speaker 1: almost a return to Kynesianism, right, It's about smoothing not

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Speaker 1: business cycles necessarily, but smoothing like the investment cycle. If

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Speaker 1: markets aren't doing it by themselves, then maybe the government

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Speaker 1: can step in and say, actually, we need to build

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Speaker 1: up this specific area of the economy or this particular

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Speaker 1: piece of infrastructure. Absolutely. So, let's our guest today is

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Speaker 1: someone who I think has been very influential on building

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Speaker 1: out in public this idea of like a new supply

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Speaker 1: side progressivism or reclaiming supply side economics is something that's

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Speaker 1: beyond just cutting taxes or cutting interest rates and actually

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Speaker 1: optimistic about the role that governments can play and alleviating

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Speaker 1: some of these bottlenecks and shortages and you know, not

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Speaker 1: running into all these scarcities again and just delivering more stuff,

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Speaker 1: more housing, more goods for the public. We're going to

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Speaker 1: be speaking to Ezra Cliin, columnist at the New York

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Speaker 1: Times and the host the podcast The Asraclient Show. So

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Speaker 1: uh big voice on this topic. Ezra, Thank you so

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Speaker 1: much for coming on Odd lots will to be here

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Speaker 1: on one of my favorite shows, thank You, Thank You.

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Speaker 1: You know it's funny when we first talked about coming

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Speaker 1: on the pot You're coming on the podcast, He's like, well,

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Speaker 1: the Democrats build back better climate plan. It's it's completely failed,

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Speaker 1: so let's talk about where they go next. But I

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Speaker 1: guess you in saying that a completely side like this

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Speaker 1: is like what duped Mitch McConnell and why they sort

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Speaker 1: of got this done because the Democrats did a very

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Speaker 1: convincing job convincing the public that it had failed and

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Speaker 1: then only to turn around at the very last minute.

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Speaker 1: So we had to sort of like rescrap even what

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Speaker 1: we're going to talk about because the premise of our

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Speaker 1: initial plan was undermined by the fact that the Democrats

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Speaker 1: passed Yeah. I didn't mean to rope you into my

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Speaker 1: ultimately completely successful scheme to pass the inflation production that,

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Speaker 1: but but you know, they had to do all damage

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Speaker 1: in this kind of work. So okay, maybe just to

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Speaker 1: begin with, give us like the definition what what is

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Speaker 1: modern supply side economics or supply side liberalism versus uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, demand side economics, and also the supplied side

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Speaker 1: economics of your the you know, the things that are

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Speaker 1: often considered a dirty word associated with Reagan tax cuts,

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Speaker 1: that sort of thing. Yeah, the definitional work is always

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Speaker 1: little trick here. So modern supply side economics is johnet

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Speaker 1: Yellen picking up sort of some of this framing and

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Speaker 1: and bring it into Treasury and around the Biden agenda,

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Speaker 1: and we can we can talk about that, but sort

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Speaker 1: of before that, what I've been trying to push for

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Speaker 1: a while what I call supply side liberalism. It's pretty simple. Um, Look,

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Speaker 1: I'm a liberal. I have spent most of my career

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Speaker 1: arguing and still argue that we should subsidize this for that,

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Speaker 1: do that cash transfer, expand health insurance to more people.

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Speaker 1: But liberals, i think, over decades, have become very used

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Speaker 1: to looking at the economy and looking at demand side problems,

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Speaker 1: looking for what we can subsidize a solution. Right. Do

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Speaker 1: people need health insurance, Let's give them a check to

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Speaker 1: get more health insurance. That's fundamentally Obamacare. Do they need housing,

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Speaker 1: let's give them a section eight boucher. Do they need schooling?

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Speaker 1: How about a Pelgram. What we're not as good at

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Speaker 1: is looking and seeing first where the problem is a

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Speaker 1: supply problem, we don't have enough of the thing we

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Speaker 1: want to give people um or the thing doesn't exist

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Speaker 1: at all, because pulling technology forward to me is a

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Speaker 1: very very important piece of supply side liberalism. Um. And secondarily,

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Speaker 1: we don't have very good language and certainly not very

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Speaker 1: good attentiveness to seeing when our own policies have made

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Speaker 1: a supply side choke point worse, where say subsidizing something

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Speaker 1: like maybe housing in very hot housing areas, where we've

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Speaker 1: also constrained the supply and thus we're pushing up prices

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Speaker 1: for everybody. So part of this is trying to add

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Speaker 1: a new lens or an old lens. Maybe many people

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Speaker 1: would say from new deal liberalism to sort of modern liberals,

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Speaker 1: men say, a lot of the problems now are supply

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Speaker 1: side problems, and we need both language and policies for

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Speaker 1: fixing them. So the liberal or progressive impulse remains the same,

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Speaker 1: which I imagine would be characterized as some sort of

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Speaker 1: more egalitarian distribution of the fruits that the economy produces.

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Speaker 1: So whether it's literal things, whether it's homes, whether it's

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Speaker 1: child care and healthcare, like the more equal distribution of

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Speaker 1: these things, the goal is the same. But we're used

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Speaker 1: to talking about, Well, the way to do that is checks,

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Speaker 1: so that someone can have a voucher for childcare or something,

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Speaker 1: but in a capacity constrained environment. And I you know,

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Speaker 1: one of the things that didn't get into the IRA

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Speaker 1: I believe was anything having to do with childcare. And

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Speaker 1: in theory it sounds like, yeah, sure you could like

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Speaker 1: give people check and give people more access to childcare,

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Speaker 1: but without more childcare facilities, without more teachers, without more

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Speaker 1: people who can look after children, you're gonna just run

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Speaker 1: into constraints. You may not actually get the outcomes that

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Speaker 1: you're you're hoping to see. Yeah, a hundred percents. Let

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Speaker 1: me say two things about that. So number one, I

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Speaker 1: don't want to say this is simply about distribution. A

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Speaker 1: lot of it is about the ability to have flourishing

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Speaker 1: lives in ways where we don't currently have the thing

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Speaker 1: we want to distribute. So if you think of, say,

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Speaker 1: what is happening in the i RA with a lot

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Speaker 1: of the clean energy infrastructure they want to build, some

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Speaker 1: of that is of course making it easier to get

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Speaker 1: things we have today. Actually, you're really not going to

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Speaker 1: be able to use these subsidies for the current generation

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Speaker 1: of vv cars, but in theory an electric car subsidy

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Speaker 1: could get you an electric car soon. Though we can

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Speaker 1: talk about supply bottle next air, but much of what

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Speaker 1: that is doing is trying to create clean energy options.

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Speaker 1: It don't really exist right now. UM certainly at the

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Speaker 1: level of plentitude, we need them to exist, things like

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Speaker 1: hydrogen um you know, things like next generation. You know,

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Speaker 1: basically pick your next generation energy source. They're trying to

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Speaker 1: least subsidize it somewhat. So I do want to know

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Speaker 1: that the ability to pull forward um innovations and possibilities

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Speaker 1: that would allow for all kinds of goals that that

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Speaker 1: that I have, that that many I think liberals share

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Speaker 1: that could not be achieved now or the politics of

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Speaker 1: them would not work out now. I think it's an

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Speaker 1: important piece of it, and it gets too things that

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Speaker 1: might need to be rethought or thought through on the

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Speaker 1: level of institutions and grant science funding. But then your

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Speaker 1: other piece of it on childcare, I think is exactly

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Speaker 1: right and a lot of the for me, I mean,

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Speaker 1: I live in San Francisco, California. I come from California.

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Speaker 1: I grew up in Irvine, California, so I to watch

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Speaker 1: how liberal, how blue California is, and how badly it

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Speaker 1: fails at a lot of the basics of progressive outcomes

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Speaker 1: of making a middle class life affordable for people is

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Speaker 1: to really force yourself to reckon with some things that

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Speaker 1: have gone pretty profoundly wrong in liberal governance. And one

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Speaker 1: of them is, yeah, we have looked around. We keep

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Speaker 1: seeing demand side problems, and we don't see the role

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Speaker 1: that some of our governance institutions and other things have

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Speaker 1: created on supply side, with housing in California and in

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Speaker 1: New York and another kind of rich or blue areas

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Speaker 1: being I think example number one, but but child care

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Speaker 1: being another. You can talk about higher education. We've not

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Speaker 1: built a new UC in California. There is an amazing, amazing,

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Speaker 1: amazing like jewel of like the global public education system.

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Speaker 1: We've not built a new UC here since the sixties.

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Speaker 1: Except from me said, um, it is very Once you

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Speaker 1: begin looking at the paucity of ambition on the supply side,

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Speaker 1: it becomes a little bit hard to stop seeing it.

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Speaker 1: So I'm just going to jump in real quickly and

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Speaker 1: ask one of the devil's advocate questions. You know, one

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Speaker 1: of the traditional criticisms of this kind of government intervention

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Speaker 1: would be that, well, why not just let the free

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Speaker 1: markets do it? You know, the free markets should be

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Speaker 1: efficiently allocating resources to the things that we need, like

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Speaker 1: housing and healthcare and childcare and things like that. What's

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Speaker 1: your response to that criticism? Wouldn't it be nice? There

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Speaker 1: are places here where I do think the regulation is

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Speaker 1: a big part of the solution. So I think housing

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Speaker 1: has a very very big component where if we let

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Speaker 1: the market do more of the work, the market actually

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Speaker 1: respond not immediately, not perfectly, but help a lot better

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Speaker 1: than what we've allowed to have happen in places like, um,

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Speaker 1: you know, northern California. On the other hand, there are

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Speaker 1: things where the market won't do it, So I think

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Speaker 1: clean energy being a big example. Now increasingly over time

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Speaker 1: you have enough market signals being sent that there is

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Speaker 1: a lot of investment in clean energy. But it took

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Speaker 1: a long time, and we're nowhere near where we would

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Speaker 1: have wanted to be in terms of the market deciding that,

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Speaker 1: you know, ruining the planet is actually a bad thing

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Speaker 1: for long term for for long term profits, So that

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Speaker 1: kind of thing is not nearly as punished as one

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Speaker 1: would hope that to be. I actually think a huge

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Speaker 1: amount of the shift towards industrial policy and that I'm

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Speaker 1: trying of coalition. The shift towards believing that the government

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Speaker 1: does need to be able to set long term goals,

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Speaker 1: does need to be able to infuse the productive policy

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Speaker 1: and direction of the country with the values of the

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Speaker 1: polity comes from watching the market's failure on climate. So

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Speaker 1: one difficulty of this kind of of this way of

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Speaker 1: looking at the economy is it doesn't give you a

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Speaker 1: one size fits all policy solution. A little bit unlike

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Speaker 1: the old supplies side economics reagular or supplies side economics,

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Speaker 1: where you just sort of wandered around looking for taxes

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Speaker 1: to cut and companies to deregulate. There are places here

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Speaker 1: where you need to deregulate the private sector, places we

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Speaker 1: need to deregulate the government, um places here where you

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Speaker 1: need to spend more, places here where you actually need

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Speaker 1: to spend less. It's much more playing bottleneck detective and

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Speaker 1: asking what is something we wish we had more of,

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Speaker 1: or simply wish we had altogether, right, it's something where

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Speaker 1: we really should be investing a lot of money and

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Speaker 1: trying to make some kind of technological breakthrough or make

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Speaker 1: something affordable that is not currently affordable, and then trying

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Speaker 1: to ask what is standing in the way um and

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Speaker 1: that answer, very frustratingly, is extremely different for for different things.

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Speaker 1: As I begun doing this work and it sort of

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Speaker 1: I'm working on a book in this era area, you

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Speaker 1: really have to look at different case studies and you

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Speaker 1: can't extrapolate across the entire range from them. They just

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Speaker 1: begin to overtime accumulate to a sense of a way

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Speaker 1: of looking for a problem as opposed to a singular

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Speaker 1: way of again and again solving a problem. So this

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Speaker 1: is really key because you know, whether we're talking about

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Speaker 1: all right, the old supply side just cut as many

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Speaker 1: taxes as you can. This sort of traditional progressive demand

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Speaker 1: side is well where there's a group of people who

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Speaker 1: have inability to access something, cut a check, and both

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Speaker 1: of them may have their roles, but the solutions aren't

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Speaker 1: clearly as simple when we're talking about something as sprawling

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Speaker 1: as lack of supply side capacity. And your turn, bottle

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Speaker 1: neck Detective is good in all of these things. We

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Speaker 1: talked about them all the time on the show. You

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Speaker 1: know it's like, okay, we seem to have gotten bad

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Speaker 1: at chips manufacturing. There are a lot of people waiting. Uh.

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Speaker 1: You know, last year we saw dwell times at the

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Speaker 1: Port of Los Angeles each weeks because we didn't have

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Speaker 1: uh pork throughput. It's like one thing after another, and

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Speaker 1: as you say, they're all very different. But what is

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Speaker 1: a good bottleneck. Are there certain broad principles that a

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Speaker 1: good bottleneck bottle neck detective could have that would start

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Speaker 1: to like, you know, a general theory perhaps of being

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Speaker 1: a bottleneck detective six that you start finding these and

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Speaker 1: identifying good solutions in a timely in a good rhythm. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think so, um, and I'll that brings up a lot.

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Speaker 1: So let me say a couple of things, uh quickly.

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Speaker 1: So what is one dimension of this is outcomes people

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Speaker 1: actually want? Right when people organized to stop dense development

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Speaker 1: from coming into their community, that isn't some accident. They

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Speaker 1: actually want the outcome we're getting. Now, we may say

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Speaker 1: that as a as a political system, as a polity,

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Speaker 1: as the state, as opposed to the city, we don't

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Speaker 1: want that, and we're going to try to pull the

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Speaker 1: responsibility or pull the voice away from them. But but

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Speaker 1: that's a case where you're looking at we have many many, many, many,

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Speaker 1: many institutions meant to raise up different voices, particularly than

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Speaker 1: not only marginalized voices. A lot of this comes out

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Speaker 1: of a sort of liberal counter movement in the sixties

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Speaker 1: and seven and these you know your Ralph Nader, is

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Speaker 1: your Rachel Carson's, etcetera. UH that was correctly responding to

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Speaker 1: a period not just in American politics, but in liberalism

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Speaker 1: where the building really was quite heedless, where the needs

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Speaker 1: of communities really were run over, where people really were

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Speaker 1: dumping toxic poisons into streams and into waterways and into

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Speaker 1: the air with no real look at what it might mean.

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Speaker 1: And so a lot of institutions, a lot of nonprofits,

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Speaker 1: a lot of statutes were passed to make it easier

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Speaker 1: for people to to jump in front, to be conservative

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Speaker 1: about it, to jump in front of these UH mechanisms,

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Speaker 1: and you'll stop. And now, at a time when we

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Speaker 1: need to do things really fast, say to de carbonize,

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Speaker 1: those exact same problems, I'm sorry, those exact same solutions

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Speaker 1: have become today's problems. So it's part of it is

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Speaker 1: looking for you know what I think of his institutional crusts. Right,

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Speaker 1: where do we have long running processes that were maybe

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Speaker 1: passed correctly, or maybe passed with all good intentions, or

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Speaker 1: maybe passed and even solve the problems there are meant

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Speaker 1: to solve, but have now become captured for other reasons.

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Speaker 1: One piece I did that I think is a good

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Speaker 1: example of this is in New York, and I think

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Speaker 1: it's twenty nineteen, they pass congestion pricing, which is like

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Speaker 1: the most pro environmental idea you can possibly have. You're

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Speaker 1: gonna tax cars coming into New York City and you're

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Speaker 1: gonna move that money over to the m p A.

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Speaker 1: And congestion pricing has been held up now for four

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Speaker 1: years an environmental review because and I've spoken to the

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Speaker 1: Biden administration and I've spoken to the players in New

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Speaker 1: York about this, and everybody wants to get it done.

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Speaker 1: And what you'll hear is like, well, we're just afraid

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Speaker 1: we're going to get a lot of lawsuits, and so

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Speaker 1: we have to do this, you know, very very lengthy

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Speaker 1: environmental review with all these meetings to protect ourselves, which

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Speaker 1: is fine on some level, but on another level, when

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Speaker 1: you're environmental bills are blocking pro environmentalist policies, you have

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Speaker 1: to begin to ask what has gone wrong there? And

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Speaker 1: so another place I just look at is affordability. When

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Speaker 1: you have a big affordability problem, and I think we

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Speaker 1: know where we have very big affordability problems. We have

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Speaker 1: them in many areas in housing, we have them in childcare,

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Speaker 1: we have them in higher education, we have them in healthcare.

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Speaker 1: I think that is a place to begin looking um

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Speaker 1: for supply side problems as well. Now you'll get different

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Speaker 1: ones in different spaces there. But I think just in general,

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Speaker 1: and we can talk about this more broadly, I think

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Speaker 1: just affordability crises should be a signal that something has

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Speaker 1: gone wrong. If there's a reason we can't produce more

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Speaker 1: of a thing, well, okay, like fair enough, but a

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Speaker 1: lot of those things we know there's no you know,

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Speaker 1: it's not like the only way to get more childcare

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Speaker 1: centers is to get more lithium out of China, right.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we we have like the technological means to

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Speaker 1: set up a daycare. If there aren't enough daycares, then

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Speaker 1: the question of why becomes very salient and should be

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Speaker 1: an answerable question. I just had a vision of a

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Speaker 1: daycare with all these little toddlers like driving tiny electric

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Speaker 1: vehicles around, and this is a future liberals want, okay,

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Speaker 1: But I just want to pause and dwell on that

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Speaker 1: timeline aspect of it for a second, because I think

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Speaker 1: this is really important. And you know, Joe mentioned this

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Speaker 1: idea that tax cuts can be an attractive policy solution

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Speaker 1: because you know, they're pretty one size fits all, the

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Speaker 1: same for cutting people checks like those are fairly simplistic

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Speaker 1: answers to sometimes complicated problems. But when you talk about

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Speaker 1: increasing investment um and building out capacity, it does feel

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Speaker 1: like the timeline starts to look very different. Like the

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Speaker 1: speed at which you can do that versus just cutting

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Speaker 1: a check or reducing taxes is vastly, vastly different. So

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Speaker 1: how do you overcome that? Because, especially in an inflationary environment,

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Speaker 1: you have people who really want to see things that

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Speaker 1: are going to have an immediate impact versus waiting two

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Speaker 1: or four years for new housing supply to be built

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Speaker 1: out or something like that. So this becomes a cliche

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Speaker 1: example if you use it enough, and I probably have,

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Speaker 1: but I think it's always worth remembering that it doesn't

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Speaker 1: have to be that long. We built the Empire State

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Speaker 1: Building in about a year um we built the New

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Speaker 1: York Subways in if I'm remembering the number that the

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Speaker 1: early New York subways in about four. It takes us

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Speaker 1: longer than the and that now to open a bathroom

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Speaker 1: in a subway station. So there is a delta, a

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Speaker 1: pretty tremendous delta between what we've been able to do

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Speaker 1: as a poorer country with worst building technology, what other

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Speaker 1: countries that are poorer and have worst building technology than

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Speaker 1: us were able to do, and what we're able to

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Speaker 1: do now. Some of that is reasonable, right, we want

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Speaker 1: to build things more safely now, we want to build

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Speaker 1: things up to higher code now. And some of it

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Speaker 1: you have to ask is it is it really serving us?

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Speaker 1: So part of it is asking this question of are

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Speaker 1: we our time and simply too long now? I think Tracey,

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Speaker 1: you're also getting it something a little bit separate than that,

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Speaker 1: which is within the horizon of political accountability. How quickly

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Speaker 1: can you execute a policy that you may get rewarded for?

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Speaker 1: And that's a hard question, although I would have thought

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Speaker 1: two years ago in a way it was a harder

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Speaker 1: question than I think it is now, not because you

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Speaker 1: are able to build more quickly now, but because my

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Speaker 1: estimation of how much reward there is for um tax

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Speaker 1: policies basically has gotten pretty far down. So I think

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Speaker 1: the the expectation among the Biden administration, and to be honest,

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Speaker 1: my expectation was the child tax credit, which was a

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Speaker 1: very simple, like direct, like here's a check, policy would

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Speaker 1: be very popular and it would create a feedback loop

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Speaker 1: of its own popularity which would lead to its extension.

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Speaker 1: It did not do that. Um, it just did not

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Speaker 1: do that. And if you go over the past couple

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Speaker 1: of years, it's actually very hard to find big tax

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Speaker 1: side policies that seem to have created a very strong

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Speaker 1: political feedback effects. The Trump tax cuts in eighteen didn't

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Speaker 1: do all that much for for Donald Trump. You know,

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Speaker 1: we can argue about the stimulus checks and the Cares

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Speaker 1: Act and and in the um subsequent um you know

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Speaker 1: acts too, but it really doesn't look like it's saved

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Speaker 1: anybody's bacon exactly. So I actually find this worrying for

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Speaker 1: a bunch of other reasons that I think there is

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Speaker 1: a very very very tenuous connection now between the policies

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Speaker 1: either side passes and political and the political feedback's rewards

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Speaker 1: or accountability for them. Um. The real exception is being

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Speaker 1: when you make a policy highly salient through a very

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Speaker 1: big repeal fight like Obamacare but the but in general,

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Speaker 1: it isn't clue to me that politicians are getting obviously

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Speaker 1: rewarded for the tax side policies either, So you know,

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Speaker 1: you may as well try to do a good job. Well,

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Speaker 1: you know, speaking of policies, let's just pause right here,

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Speaker 1: because we did have two pretty extraordinarily big pieces of

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Speaker 1: legislation passed in the last I don't know, two months basically,

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Speaker 1: And you are the original wonk, and you made your

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Speaker 1: career because you're extremely good at sort of taking these

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Speaker 1: big policy things and writing about them and talking about

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Speaker 1: them in a way that people can understand. So these

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Speaker 1: two bills, Chips and I ra Someone comes to you, says, Ezrael, like,

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Speaker 1: what's in these bills? What do they do? What are

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Speaker 1: they gonna do for me? How are they going to

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Speaker 1: expand supply side capacity? Why do you give us like

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Speaker 1: this short, asra klient summary of these pretty extraordinary legislative

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Speaker 1: accomplishments that up until very recently people thought there was

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Speaker 1: no chance of this administration getting sure. And I think

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Speaker 1: we should actually put the infrastructure bill in here too.

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00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:42,679
Speaker 1: So if you if you take the three of them together,

433
00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:45,679
Speaker 1: what you have is about four hundred and fifty billion

434
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:51,320
Speaker 1: dollars in climate investment UM, roughly three five in the

435
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:53,919
Speaker 1: ira A. UM. It's really weird to keep saying the

436
00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:58,720
Speaker 1: I r A and the Irish UH, and then a

437
00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:02,440
Speaker 1: fair amount more in the Infrastructure bill. And then Chips

438
00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:05,480
Speaker 1: has a bunch of you know, we're going to set

439
00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:09,280
Speaker 1: up an agency, inter agency process, that kind of department. Here,

440
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:11,840
Speaker 1: we're going to give a direction, but they don't actually

441
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:14,520
Speaker 1: authorize the money for it, or rather, in technical terms,

442
00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:16,440
Speaker 1: they authorize the money, but they don't spend the money.

443
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:19,120
Speaker 1: The other ones are actually like, here's a check. One

444
00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:21,320
Speaker 1: tricky thing about these bills is none of them do

445
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:24,160
Speaker 1: one thing as a want. I find them very very

446
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 1: hard to explain because there is no central architecture. But

447
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 1: the major happened, I know, right well, I've I've moved

448
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:35,919
Speaker 1: on much easier, UM. But I would say there's been

449
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:38,960
Speaker 1: a huge move in climate policy. And and this goes

450
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:40,920
Speaker 1: actually a little bit too to the question of letting

451
00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:43,560
Speaker 1: the market work. You go back to you know, two

452
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 1: thousand and um, what was it two ten or eleven

453
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:48,960
Speaker 1: when they were doing uh Boxman market, the Big Captain

454
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 1: Trade Bill. The theory for a long time was we

455
00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:55,879
Speaker 1: were going to price the externalities of carpon as such,

456
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 1: the market would then begin sending signals across the entire

457
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:02,000
Speaker 1: market so that the response from from both government and

458
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:06,639
Speaker 1: consumers and private uh you know, companies would be to

459
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,879
Speaker 1: begin investing much more in clean energy and infrastructure for

460
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:12,879
Speaker 1: clean energy and products that use clean energy, and you know,

461
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:15,200
Speaker 1: less in things that they used a lot of fossil

462
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 1: fuels for a bunch of reasons. There's been a big

463
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 1: movement away from that. And so now what they're trying

464
00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:22,719
Speaker 1: to do in the i RA and to some degree

465
00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:26,239
Speaker 1: in the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill is there they're trying to

466
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 1: sort of wander around with checks, with tax rebates, with

467
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:32,600
Speaker 1: tax credits and say, look like, if you can set

468
00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:35,840
Speaker 1: up domestic and it's actually pretty important because they are

469
00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 1: putting a lot into the bucket of not just trying

470
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:42,840
Speaker 1: to create clean energy infrastructure and supply chains and product chains,

471
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:46,160
Speaker 1: but create them in America. If you can create enough

472
00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:48,840
Speaker 1: of this chain here, like, we will give you a

473
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:52,879
Speaker 1: tremendous amount of you know, subsidies or will be guaranteed

474
00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:55,679
Speaker 1: purchasers or whatever it might be. So they're basically just

475
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:58,760
Speaker 1: trying to spend their way to a very very very

476
00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 1: large UH decarbonization both UM push but also industry in America.

477
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:07,280
Speaker 1: I really think you have to understand what Biden is

478
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:10,119
Speaker 1: doing here as also an idea about the future of

479
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:12,719
Speaker 1: the economy. And I've been thinking about how will we

480
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:15,440
Speaker 1: know in ten years of this world. One way to

481
00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 1: think about it is we will know because we will

482
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:21,080
Speaker 1: have gotten you know. I think the estimate out of

483
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:23,840
Speaker 1: the group in Princeton and others is about two thirds

484
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:26,600
Speaker 1: of the way to the Paris climate. UM are are

485
00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 1: our target under Paris Climate. I think another way though

486
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 1: that that I think, you know, if it doesn't happen,

487
00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:33,560
Speaker 1: we're all going to have to answer for it a bit.

488
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 1: Is is there a really strong domestic next generation battery

489
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 1: manufacturing sector in America. They're putting a lot of money

490
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,520
Speaker 1: into that and some other things like that, and if

491
00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:48,119
Speaker 1: those industries don't build up here, then there will be

492
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 1: a real you know, that would be a real point

493
00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 1: for the people who say, you know, you can't use

494
00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:54,160
Speaker 1: industrial policy to create these kinds of industries. That's one

495
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:57,280
Speaker 1: layer of this. The bills do a bunch of other

496
00:26:57,320 --> 00:26:59,520
Speaker 1: things that should be said, so there's a huge amount

497
00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:02,199
Speaker 1: of tax policy in the IRA to pay for not

498
00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:05,399
Speaker 1: just the climate investments, but also to um uh, just

499
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:07,840
Speaker 1: pay down the deficit a bunch, to make Joe Mansion

500
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 1: and to sunder Christian cinema happy. I would want to

501
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:14,280
Speaker 1: bone up on that more before I talked it through

502
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:16,560
Speaker 1: right here. And then there's obviously a fair amount of

503
00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:21,440
Speaker 1: extension of Obamacare health insurance subsidies. Chips um is primarily

504
00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:23,119
Speaker 1: a little bit to the side of this CHIPS. It

505
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:25,639
Speaker 1: comes out of competes and the I think it was

506
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:29,360
Speaker 1: called the Competition and Invasion Act, this huge Christmas tree

507
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 1: kind of legislation for every R and D idea and

508
00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:37,240
Speaker 1: domestic manufacturing idea anybody in Congress had that eventually got

509
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:42,240
Speaker 1: whittled down to primarily being an idea about reconstructing domestic

510
00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 1: semiconductor manufacturing and innovation, with the idea being these are

511
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:48,159
Speaker 1: such a critical component of the both the current and

512
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:51,440
Speaker 1: the next generation economy that to be dependent on other

513
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:54,200
Speaker 1: countries for them, partically other countries either they don't like us,

514
00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 1: or that could be easily invaded by countries a tone

515
00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:59,920
Speaker 1: that that we have a complicated relationship with like Taiwan,

516
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:04,800
Speaker 1: UM is a critical national security, uh, not just failure,

517
00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:09,520
Speaker 1: but vulnerability. And so I think Chips sits a little

518
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:11,720
Speaker 1: bit differently, whereas the IRA, I think of it is

519
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,600
Speaker 1: very much like a supply side progressivism bill. Right, We're

520
00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:17,800
Speaker 1: going to invest hugely in the supply side of this

521
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:21,679
Speaker 1: very very central progressivism no goal, which is decarbonizing the

522
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 1: economy and slowing climate change. Chips is very much am

523
00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:30,840
Speaker 1: a national security. You know, the two parties can still

524
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:35,919
Speaker 1: somewhat come together to try to pass anti China or

525
00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:38,720
Speaker 1: compete with China kind of legislation, and there are two

526
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:40,200
Speaker 1: a little bit like batteries are gonna be a really

527
00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:42,760
Speaker 1: big test for for the IRA, whether not we're able

528
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 1: to create the semiconductor capability and industry in America is

529
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 1: going to be a really big test of whether or

530
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:51,880
Speaker 1: not it is possible for this kind of industrial policy

531
00:28:51,880 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 1: to work. So, speaking of China, that's my queue to

532
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:14,880
Speaker 1: ask another Devil's advocate question, which is, you know, normally

533
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:20,000
Speaker 1: when I think of large scale investment or infrastructure spending

534
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:25,200
Speaker 1: things like that, I think of China, and China has

535
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:29,200
Speaker 1: sort of a mixed record on success on that front.

536
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 1: UM And my favorite example of this is um the

537
00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:38,000
Speaker 1: swine fever epidemic where a huge chunk of China's supply

538
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:41,640
Speaker 1: of pigs got wiped out by this pandemic, and then

539
00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 1: the government intervened and said, we have to rebuild our herds,

540
00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 1: and then they rebuilt them so quickly that they had

541
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:50,240
Speaker 1: too many pigs, and we had a bunch of pig

542
00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:53,320
Speaker 1: farmers and pig farming companies that ended up going bust.

543
00:29:53,360 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 1: And so if you look at the supply of China's

544
00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 1: heard of hogs, as I do regularly, it's just it's

545
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:02,880
Speaker 1: spikes and then it troughs. All made hobbies, right, and

546
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:05,800
Speaker 1: then it spikes and it troughs. So for them it's

547
00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:10,560
Speaker 1: been very hard to smooth that particular cycle. And so

548
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:13,479
Speaker 1: I guess my question is, like, how difficult is it

549
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 1: to calibrate this kind of supply side intervention and how

550
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:21,840
Speaker 1: do you ensure that you don't contribute to a boom

551
00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 1: that then ends in a bust? I think you might.

552
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 1: I have two thoughts on this one. It goes back

553
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 1: to something you were saying at the beginning, Tracy, about

554
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:33,640
Speaker 1: this in some ways being a rediscovery of Kanes people.

555
00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:36,520
Speaker 1: You know, it posts great recession thought a lot about

556
00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:39,920
Speaker 1: Kanes in terms of smoothing business cycles. But I in

557
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:43,280
Speaker 1: many ways think of the central contribution of modern monetary

558
00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:47,400
Speaker 1: theory to tart discourse, being that the rediscovery and the

559
00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:51,400
Speaker 1: central and central focus on the old Kanes quote. Whatever

560
00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:53,960
Speaker 1: we can actually do we can afford to do, which

561
00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:57,040
Speaker 1: I might have slightly wrong in in memory. But after that,

562
00:30:57,200 --> 00:30:59,840
Speaker 1: all my my new KEYNESI and friends, you know, you're

563
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:02,800
Speaker 1: Larry Summers and Jason Furman's and everybody said, oh, yeah,

564
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 1: we've always believed that, and well you never never mentioned it.

565
00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:10,000
Speaker 1: Actually it was not something you all said. But to

566
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:12,160
Speaker 1: take to to open up that quote a little bit.

567
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:16,240
Speaker 1: There are things we want to do that we cannot

568
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:19,520
Speaker 1: currently do. We either don't have the capacity, we don't

569
00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 1: have the market, we don't have the manufacturing skill and

570
00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 1: the supply chains, and we worry those chains are gonna

571
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:29,560
Speaker 1: be vulnerable to future geopolitical shock. And so there is

572
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:32,320
Speaker 1: a real effort here, I think, not to smooth out right.

573
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 1: I mean, as you say, China had a pig industry, right,

574
00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 1: they they did have hogs. We just don't have a

575
00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 1: lot of the capacity we want to have, and so

576
00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:43,120
Speaker 1: the theories to build it now I do think the worry,

577
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:46,400
Speaker 1: which is similar, is we will build the wrong things.

578
00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 1: You know, We'll put all this money into e v s,

579
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:50,280
Speaker 1: but it turns out everybody is going to be on

580
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:53,680
Speaker 1: the bikes, you know, or something, and so the government

581
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:57,600
Speaker 1: will in picking its you know, winners, have actually picked

582
00:31:57,640 --> 00:32:01,240
Speaker 1: up a bunch of losers. And this gets to something else.

583
00:32:01,320 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 1: And I talk a lot about supply side liberalism, but

584
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:07,000
Speaker 1: there's a lot of pickup for this idea on the right,

585
00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:09,959
Speaker 1: and a lot of people on the right like to say, yeah, like,

586
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 1: you know, finally liberals are taken, are taken the supply

587
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 1: side seriously, and there's a pretty deep critique and for me,

588
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:20,960
Speaker 1: a pretty deep frustration towards my conservative friends, who on

589
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:24,680
Speaker 1: the one hand want a government that plays a more

590
00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 1: serious and I think risk tolerant role in backing up

591
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:32,400
Speaker 1: and accelerating the frontier or expanding the frontier of the

592
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:35,480
Speaker 1: supply chain. And on the other hand, they have themselves

593
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:40,560
Speaker 1: created an unbelievably risk intolerant, terrified of its own shadow government.

594
00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 1: So whether you're thinking about you know, things like the

595
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:47,360
Speaker 1: loan guarantee program that everybody knows from backing Cylindra, but

596
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:50,520
Speaker 1: that also was an incredibly important lifeline to Tessa. Or

597
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:54,640
Speaker 1: you're thinking about things like the incredibly heavy level of

598
00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:58,840
Speaker 1: peer review and consensus oriented decision making at the NIH

599
00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:01,120
Speaker 1: or the n S, which I think of as pretty

600
00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:03,200
Speaker 1: big problems for a bunch of things I care about.

601
00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:06,960
Speaker 1: But these places are terrified of funding things that then

602
00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:09,320
Speaker 1: members of Congress on the right get up and say,

603
00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 1: what a stupid thing. These are shrimp running on treadmills

604
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:14,600
Speaker 1: or whatever. It is a lot of science looks weird.

605
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:17,959
Speaker 1: We need a government that the role government should be

606
00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 1: playing in a lot of these areas is to be

607
00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 1: investing in things that might fail to to your point

608
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:27,320
Speaker 1: about the government earlier, I'm sorry the market earlier. There

609
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:29,720
Speaker 1: are things the market does really well, and the market

610
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:32,440
Speaker 1: is really really really good at betting on things that

611
00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 1: are pretty likely to turn a profit. And there are

612
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:37,240
Speaker 1: places where maybe we need to deregulate or places we

613
00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:38,720
Speaker 1: need to give a little push or make things a

614
00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:41,560
Speaker 1: little bit easier. But in general, you know, if you

615
00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:45,440
Speaker 1: didn't do anything on electric vehicles right now, the market

616
00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 1: is moving in that direction, maybe a little slowly, you know,

617
00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 1: compared to what we were like, but it is definitely

618
00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:52,520
Speaker 1: moving in that direction, um with of course we should

619
00:33:52,560 --> 00:33:55,360
Speaker 1: say a huge amount of government help up until now, um.

620
00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:57,800
Speaker 1: But there are things that are just too risky. There

621
00:33:57,840 --> 00:34:00,400
Speaker 1: are things that just you know, if they haid off,

622
00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:04,400
Speaker 1: it would be unbelievably great, but they very likely won't

623
00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:06,600
Speaker 1: pay off. And we need a government able to make

624
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 1: a lot of bets like that and absorb not just financially,

625
00:34:10,160 --> 00:34:12,359
Speaker 1: a bunch of failure. But and this is a much

626
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:14,440
Speaker 1: harder part, and the part where the right place a

627
00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:16,719
Speaker 1: very toxic role. It needs to be. It needs to

628
00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:19,279
Speaker 1: be able to politically absorb a bunch of failure. If

629
00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:21,960
Speaker 1: you spend all this money and you don't get any

630
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 1: big failures, right, you spend all this money and you

631
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:26,640
Speaker 1: do all this backing up of things, and you bet

632
00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:29,239
Speaker 1: on all these technologies, and there's nothing we can say

633
00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:31,680
Speaker 1: at the end of it, hey, like that really didn't

634
00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:34,440
Speaker 1: work out, Like you really picked wrong there. Then we

635
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:38,640
Speaker 1: have way, way, way aired on the side of making

636
00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 1: overly safe bets. You really want a bunch of things

637
00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:45,680
Speaker 1: where if one of the fifteen pan out, it's transformative,

638
00:34:46,120 --> 00:34:48,920
Speaker 1: as opposed to fifteen things were fourteen of the fifteen

639
00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:51,239
Speaker 1: obviously pan out, and as such, the market could have

640
00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:54,080
Speaker 1: done it just fine. The market has never, as far

641
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 1: as I know, funded a shrimp running on treadmill startup,

642
00:34:57,600 --> 00:35:00,520
Speaker 1: which is an obvious market failure and clear reason why

643
00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:02,480
Speaker 1: we did the public sector. I believe, I'm not I

644
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:05,880
Speaker 1: believe I'm pulling that from something real. There are all

645
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:08,920
Speaker 1: these things there are There are all these um uh

646
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:12,960
Speaker 1: congressmen who give awards for dumbest no like there used

647
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:17,840
Speaker 1: to be like the cow farts one, but all this stuff. Um.

648
00:35:17,880 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 1: You know, I here's a question, and I don't you

649
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:23,560
Speaker 1: know uh where I feel like you're probably uniquely positioned

650
00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:28,560
Speaker 1: to answer um for us, which is within the Democratic Party.

651
00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:31,600
Speaker 1: You know, there is there was a lot of reservation,

652
00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:34,839
Speaker 1: particularly on the left, I think, towards chips, even though

653
00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:39,360
Speaker 1: it's about public investment, the idea like private companies theoretically

654
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 1: are going to benefit a lot from it. You know,

655
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:43,120
Speaker 1: you were like, are they going to use this money

656
00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:46,440
Speaker 1: for stock buy backs? Etcetera? And so like within the

657
00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:49,200
Speaker 1: Democratic Party right now, it's not like everyone has suddenly

658
00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:53,120
Speaker 1: become supply siders, and that sort of old school do

659
00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:56,279
Speaker 1: it on the demand side is pretty strong. How would

660
00:35:56,320 --> 00:35:59,720
Speaker 1: you rate you know where the center of the Party.

661
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:03,040
Speaker 1: I don't mean centers and centrist although maybe implicitly it is,

662
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:06,520
Speaker 1: but the center of gravity within the Democratic Party, which

663
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:09,440
Speaker 1: you're much more plugged into than we are in terms

664
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:13,480
Speaker 1: of like taking on this supply side framing two problems.

665
00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 1: I have found on a bunch of these issues that

666
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:23,160
Speaker 1: there is more interest and less resistance than I expected,

667
00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:26,879
Speaker 1: but also, in a funny way, less eventual pickup. So

668
00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 1: I thought a lot of this stuff would cause, frankly,

669
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:32,040
Speaker 1: a lot more blowback. Like I've been very critical of

670
00:36:32,120 --> 00:36:35,040
Speaker 1: things like the National Environmental Policy Act, to the California

671
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:38,360
Speaker 1: Environmental Quality Act, think the Clean Air Act to some degree,

672
00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:41,480
Speaker 1: things that are very central parts of the environmental movement

673
00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:45,320
Speaker 1: legacy in this country operating today that are now being

674
00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:49,799
Speaker 1: wielded against clean energy, or like my favorite example in Minnesota,

675
00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:54,120
Speaker 1: they banned Minnesota. Minneapolis banned um single family zoning and

676
00:36:54,719 --> 00:36:59,600
Speaker 1: there that policy got an injunction based on environmental review,

677
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:01,360
Speaker 1: like they they can't move forward on their band of

678
00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:03,839
Speaker 1: single families owning because it didn't go through enough environmental view,

679
00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:07,160
Speaker 1: like it's just crazy making. People have been more receptive

680
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:09,960
Speaker 1: to that, though not that interested in doing anything about it.

681
00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:13,760
Speaker 1: I think of This is more of a problem of

682
00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:18,239
Speaker 1: attention and what gets people into liberalism, um, you know,

683
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:21,960
Speaker 1: kind of liberal or democratic politics and to something even

684
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:25,080
Speaker 1: how the uh the machinery of government is set up,

685
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:27,440
Speaker 1: and I think of it is really a very tough

686
00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:30,160
Speaker 1: ideological fight. So this is something I'm sure you guys

687
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:33,600
Speaker 1: ran into, but I was really struck over the last

688
00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:37,080
Speaker 1: you know, it's called eighteen months as inflation got worse

689
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:40,360
Speaker 1: and worse and worse, talking to members of the Biden

690
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:44,759
Speaker 1: administration and just really realizing how much they were having

691
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 1: to try to retool themselves bureaucratically, institutionally to just understand

692
00:37:50,680 --> 00:37:53,439
Speaker 1: the productive side of the economy. Where you weren't trying

693
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:57,120
Speaker 1: to do efforts of macroeconomic stabilization, Um, you weren't just

694
00:37:57,200 --> 00:37:59,480
Speaker 1: trying to kind of ask what are the big trends,

695
00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:02,120
Speaker 1: but you're actually having to kind of figure out the ports.

696
00:38:02,160 --> 00:38:04,080
Speaker 1: And the people who got charged with figure out the

697
00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:05,600
Speaker 1: ports like that had not been their job. There was

698
00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:08,920
Speaker 1: no person who that was their job, and like they

699
00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:11,719
Speaker 1: had that information streaming in in a very usable way,

700
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 1: and like they had a bureaucracy well set up to

701
00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 1: do something with it. So to some degree there is

702
00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:20,680
Speaker 1: simply a mismatch, I think in the motivations and structures

703
00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:23,640
Speaker 1: of the Democratic Party and also for that matter, of

704
00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 1: the Republican Party, and some of these problems in health care,

705
00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:30,800
Speaker 1: for instance, which I know very very well. The amount

706
00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 1: of organizations, groups, non profits, people um talent that has

707
00:38:36,120 --> 00:38:37,920
Speaker 1: gone in for decades to the question of how do

708
00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:40,600
Speaker 1: we get more people health insurance is really really traumatic.

709
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:43,680
Speaker 1: The amount of people who got into that to go

710
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:47,279
Speaker 1: to war with the American Medical Association over how many

711
00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:50,279
Speaker 1: doctors we are credit every year and what kinds of

712
00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:54,120
Speaker 1: regulations we have on other qualified practitioners like nurse practitioners,

713
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:57,720
Speaker 1: so we could expand primary care um such that prices

714
00:38:57,719 --> 00:39:00,359
Speaker 1: would fall on that UM. Nobody's in it for that

715
00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:02,520
Speaker 1: right there in it to get health insurance to poor people,

716
00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:05,040
Speaker 1: not to fight with doctors who are actually their friends

717
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:07,399
Speaker 1: on a bunch of these issues. And so it's more

718
00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:10,200
Speaker 1: about that if you say this and not exactly against it,

719
00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:12,920
Speaker 1: I mean the fact that we have capped the number

720
00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:16,359
Speaker 1: of residency slots, and there was actually this big fight

721
00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:18,719
Speaker 1: from the a M A years ago and others to

722
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:21,919
Speaker 1: convince politicians, and we had a problem with doctor over

723
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:24,160
Speaker 1: supply and now we have a problem with particularly primary

724
00:39:24,160 --> 00:39:28,440
Speaker 1: care under supply. It's not people disagree with you, it's just,

725
00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:30,680
Speaker 1: you know, it's like a company trying to do something

726
00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:33,200
Speaker 1: that wasn't set up to do it, doesn't really know

727
00:39:33,280 --> 00:39:35,520
Speaker 1: how to do it the right. People aren't that interested

728
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:38,800
Speaker 1: in it. It's coalition splitting work as opposed to coalition

729
00:39:38,880 --> 00:39:41,640
Speaker 1: uniting work. So the problem isn't so much like the

730
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:45,560
Speaker 1: counter argument. The problem is almost like the argument has

731
00:39:45,560 --> 00:39:48,120
Speaker 1: nowhere to go, like it's not well structured in the

732
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:50,879
Speaker 1: congressional committees. Um. So I've actually found that to be

733
00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:55,280
Speaker 1: to be more of the difficulty here. So I realized

734
00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:59,400
Speaker 1: we've been very focused on US policy for obvious reasons.

735
00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:03,239
Speaker 1: But the problem of under investment is not exclusive to America.

736
00:40:03,360 --> 00:40:05,520
Speaker 1: And in fact, you know, one thing we've learned over

737
00:40:05,520 --> 00:40:08,800
Speaker 1: the summer is that it very much applies to places

738
00:40:08,880 --> 00:40:12,759
Speaker 1: like Europe. Um, with their energy supply and energy policies

739
00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:17,320
Speaker 1: and things like that. What accounts for that under investment

740
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:20,600
Speaker 1: in Europe? Like, what is the condition that is I

741
00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:24,440
Speaker 1: guess common to both the US and places like Europe

742
00:40:24,440 --> 00:40:27,279
Speaker 1: when it comes to under investment, Because when you look

743
00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:28,880
Speaker 1: at Europe, you can't just say Oh, it's you know,

744
00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:31,880
Speaker 1: Democrats and Republicans fighting and they can't agree on anything,

745
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:33,839
Speaker 1: or you know, we can't agree on how to fund

746
00:40:33,880 --> 00:40:36,560
Speaker 1: it and things like that. Europe already has a slightly

747
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:39,920
Speaker 1: different approach when it comes to that, and yet they

748
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:44,000
Speaker 1: also seem to have struggled over the past decades. I

749
00:40:44,000 --> 00:40:46,160
Speaker 1: don't know how to think about the question of under

750
00:40:46,200 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 1: investment as both a sort of macro and international phenomenon,

751
00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:52,840
Speaker 1: and I mean that in the sense of I'm not

752
00:40:52,920 --> 00:40:56,080
Speaker 1: sure how useful I think under investment is as a concept.

753
00:40:56,840 --> 00:40:58,839
Speaker 1: So some countries in Europe have done a lot more

754
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:02,280
Speaker 1: to invest in green energy than we have. Some countries

755
00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:04,480
Speaker 1: in Europe invested a lot in nuclear energy, you know,

756
00:41:04,520 --> 00:41:07,680
Speaker 1: like France over time, you know, and some have been, obviously,

757
00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:10,600
Speaker 1: like Germany, going in the opposite direction. So one thing

758
00:41:10,640 --> 00:41:13,680
Speaker 1: is I think it is worth looking at the sort

759
00:41:13,680 --> 00:41:16,520
Speaker 1: of differences that are exploitable there. Something has been very,

760
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:20,000
Speaker 1: very helpful when thinking about infrastructure build is that, you know,

761
00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:24,400
Speaker 1: lots of countries in Europe do rail train bridges, etcetera.

762
00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:27,640
Speaker 1: We can actually look at proclometer costs and it's not perfect,

763
00:41:27,640 --> 00:41:28,880
Speaker 1: but but there are people have been doing this like

764
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:33,960
Speaker 1: Alan Levy, and you can really see unbelievably large differences

765
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:37,560
Speaker 1: and how much things cost. But within that, I do

766
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:46,280
Speaker 1: think there's probably a consistent issue of simply rich society

767
00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:50,879
Speaker 1: is becoming affluent enough that things are broadly good enough

768
00:41:51,920 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 1: that what people want is not actually all that much change,

769
00:41:57,040 --> 00:42:00,200
Speaker 1: and a lot of say infrastructure build is a among

770
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:02,440
Speaker 1: other things, a lot of disruption. I mean, it's all

771
00:42:02,440 --> 00:42:05,000
Speaker 1: great to talk about infrastructure in your head, and then

772
00:42:05,160 --> 00:42:07,279
Speaker 1: they're ripping up all the streets near my house and

773
00:42:07,280 --> 00:42:10,240
Speaker 1: it's an unbelievable pain in the ass, right, Like, nobody

774
00:42:10,280 --> 00:42:13,839
Speaker 1: actually likes it when infrastructure is being built near them. Um.

775
00:42:13,840 --> 00:42:16,920
Speaker 1: And similarly, you know, I go back and forth on

776
00:42:17,200 --> 00:42:19,800
Speaker 1: this old book by an economist named Manser Olson. I

777
00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:21,600
Speaker 1: think it's called The Rise and Fall Nations or The

778
00:42:21,680 --> 00:42:24,480
Speaker 1: Rise and Decline of Nations, and I think it's published

779
00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:26,600
Speaker 1: in the seventies, if I'm not wrong, and it's a

780
00:42:26,640 --> 00:42:29,919
Speaker 1: classic in public choice economics. But it you know, he's

781
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:33,839
Speaker 1: basically trying to explain why are Japan and Germany, which

782
00:42:33,880 --> 00:42:36,480
Speaker 1: were bombed out during World War Two, growing so much

783
00:42:36,560 --> 00:42:39,160
Speaker 1: quicker than the UK, UM and some other countries. And

784
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:41,600
Speaker 1: he comes to this argument that is wrong in a

785
00:42:41,640 --> 00:42:44,160
Speaker 1: bunch of its particulars now that we have a longer

786
00:42:44,280 --> 00:42:47,560
Speaker 1: time series on it, but it's clearly right in its

787
00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:54,120
Speaker 1: general thrust that stable, affluent societies build up these very

788
00:42:54,200 --> 00:42:58,520
Speaker 1: very thick networks of interest groups that are trying to

789
00:42:58,520 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 1: get their bit of pie. I think misses that they

790
00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:04,120
Speaker 1: also get a lot of actor networks that they're not

791
00:43:04,160 --> 00:43:06,440
Speaker 1: just trying to redistribute money to themselves, but also just

792
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:09,239
Speaker 1: are trying to get their values instituted in society, even

793
00:43:09,239 --> 00:43:11,200
Speaker 1: when that would be bad for their bottom line. But

794
00:43:11,280 --> 00:43:12,799
Speaker 1: we have a lot of that um, you know, where

795
00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:14,440
Speaker 1: people are trying to fight for the way they want

796
00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:16,920
Speaker 1: a community to be as opposed to what they're housing.

797
00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:20,040
Speaker 1: You know, values could actually be UM. He talks about

798
00:43:20,040 --> 00:43:24,360
Speaker 1: complex agreements. As countries become, you know, again more affluent,

799
00:43:24,400 --> 00:43:27,600
Speaker 1: more stable, they begin to become very you need a

800
00:43:27,680 --> 00:43:32,200
Speaker 1: lot of complex negotiations between different players who, due to

801
00:43:32,280 --> 00:43:35,160
Speaker 1: their longevity, due to their power, due to sort of

802
00:43:35,200 --> 00:43:38,480
Speaker 1: move towards more small d democratic processes, have a real

803
00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:41,520
Speaker 1: hold in the system, and so being able to negotiate

804
00:43:41,560 --> 00:43:45,600
Speaker 1: these increasingly complex um negotiations becomes a core thing that

805
00:43:45,719 --> 00:43:47,759
Speaker 1: ther rewarding people for and a lot of your talent

806
00:43:47,800 --> 00:43:50,800
Speaker 1: goes into those areas as opposed to say engineering. I

807
00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:52,840
Speaker 1: think it's Patrick Collison of Stripe who has made the

808
00:43:52,880 --> 00:43:56,640
Speaker 1: point that if you're really into high speed rail in America,

809
00:43:57,040 --> 00:43:59,239
Speaker 1: you're just not going to be very productive because it

810
00:43:59,560 --> 00:44:01,080
Speaker 1: is in a lot of hi speed rail being built,

811
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:03,719
Speaker 1: and even though they are still working on things like

812
00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:07,640
Speaker 1: the California High speed Rail initiative, uh, it's really really slow,

813
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:10,839
Speaker 1: it's really expensive. Like we've made a lot of engineers

814
00:44:10,920 --> 00:44:13,400
Speaker 1: here unproductive, and it's a big pain to be an

815
00:44:13,400 --> 00:44:15,759
Speaker 1: engineer working on these things. I'm just flooded now with

816
00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:19,319
Speaker 1: people working on domestic infrastructure projects who want to tell

817
00:44:19,360 --> 00:44:21,600
Speaker 1: me about how miserable their lives are where It's like

818
00:44:21,640 --> 00:44:23,600
Speaker 1: working on crypto up until a couple of months ago

819
00:44:23,640 --> 00:44:25,680
Speaker 1: was super fun because nobody told you know, and I

820
00:44:25,680 --> 00:44:28,120
Speaker 1: would just shoveled money on you. So I do think something.

821
00:44:28,120 --> 00:44:31,320
Speaker 1: It's probably consistent, you know, whatever the I think. The

822
00:44:31,360 --> 00:44:34,359
Speaker 1: reason I'm a little skeptical under investments sometimes is that

823
00:44:34,760 --> 00:44:36,960
Speaker 1: there's what our investment could be getting us at its

824
00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:39,799
Speaker 1: current levels, and what it is getting us. But nevertheless,

825
00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:43,560
Speaker 1: like there is clearly a these societies are all turning

826
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:50,320
Speaker 1: dials in a billion different ways against building, against risk,

827
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:53,239
Speaker 1: and it just becomes sludgy. And then you know, you're

828
00:44:53,280 --> 00:44:55,279
Speaker 1: a young person thinking about where to go and like

829
00:44:55,280 --> 00:44:57,239
Speaker 1: where to make your mark, and it's like, you know,

830
00:44:57,280 --> 00:45:00,200
Speaker 1: you go into these mediator industries, like you know at

831
00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:03,080
Speaker 1: law and management consulting and finance as opposed to the

832
00:45:03,120 --> 00:45:07,040
Speaker 1: actual building stuff industries, and that stuff you know, cycle off,

833
00:45:07,040 --> 00:45:08,880
Speaker 1: the cycle, you know, begins to have a real effect.

834
00:45:09,640 --> 00:45:12,400
Speaker 1: I think this is the second episode of Late where

835
00:45:12,600 --> 00:45:14,920
Speaker 1: the conclusion is we had to kill this crypto thing

836
00:45:15,040 --> 00:45:18,400
Speaker 1: so people can work on something productive as a client.

837
00:45:18,520 --> 00:45:21,000
Speaker 1: It was so great to have you on. We're out

838
00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:23,280
Speaker 1: of time, but we could actually go for a long time,

839
00:45:23,440 --> 00:45:27,440
Speaker 1: and as all the good conversations, all our best conversations,

840
00:45:27,480 --> 00:45:30,640
Speaker 1: give me like five ideas for episodes including you know,

841
00:45:31,239 --> 00:45:33,640
Speaker 1: we got to talk more about environmental review and we

842
00:45:33,760 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 1: got to talk about old environmentalism versus new environmentalism and

843
00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:39,359
Speaker 1: all this stuff. So great to have you on the show.

844
00:45:39,480 --> 00:45:43,239
Speaker 1: Really appreciate you coming on out lots, Thank you. I

845
00:45:43,280 --> 00:46:01,200
Speaker 1: love being here. So should we do spin off the

846
00:46:01,239 --> 00:46:04,319
Speaker 1: Bottleneck Detectives? That would be a fun show. Like a

847
00:46:04,360 --> 00:46:07,719
Speaker 1: TV show. That would be a great name for a

848
00:46:07,760 --> 00:46:11,040
Speaker 1: TV series or even a podcast. So yes, yes we

849
00:46:11,040 --> 00:46:13,600
Speaker 1: should have like some like haunted, you know, sort of

850
00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:18,640
Speaker 1: like mysterious music, like the Scooby Doo. We're wandering around

851
00:46:18,719 --> 00:46:23,480
Speaker 1: with like big magnifying glasses looking for supply side constraints. Okay,

852
00:46:23,600 --> 00:46:25,239
Speaker 1: on a serious note, there was a lot that I

853
00:46:25,320 --> 00:46:28,400
Speaker 1: found interesting in that conversation. But I did think Ezra's

854
00:46:28,440 --> 00:46:32,920
Speaker 1: point about the government being willing to finance and support

855
00:46:33,120 --> 00:46:38,560
Speaker 1: failures and politically failure, yeah, I thought that was really interesting.

856
00:46:38,600 --> 00:46:41,440
Speaker 1: And also, can I just say that that shrimp treadmill

857
00:46:41,560 --> 00:46:44,360
Speaker 1: study is a real thing, and there is a video

858
00:46:44,960 --> 00:46:47,239
Speaker 1: of the shrimp running on the treadmill, and I have

859
00:46:47,320 --> 00:46:49,360
Speaker 1: to say they move kind of like I do on

860
00:46:49,360 --> 00:46:53,680
Speaker 1: a treadmill, which is which is to say, reluctantly, extremely reluctantly.

861
00:46:54,040 --> 00:46:56,279
Speaker 1: But yeah, that does plice in some of the video

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00:46:56,520 --> 00:47:00,560
Speaker 1: for the video version of this episode. You Know, something

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00:47:00,600 --> 00:47:02,680
Speaker 1: I was thinking that I thought was very powerful is

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00:47:02,719 --> 00:47:06,000
Speaker 1: like this idea of there's a lot of openness to

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00:47:06,120 --> 00:47:09,040
Speaker 1: some of these supply side ideas, but whether that openness

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00:47:09,080 --> 00:47:12,520
Speaker 1: actually turns turns into action is a very separate question,

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00:47:13,000 --> 00:47:17,359
Speaker 1: and you know, just recording this August yesterday we had

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00:47:17,360 --> 00:47:20,120
Speaker 1: the New York primaries and one of the candidates in

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00:47:20,200 --> 00:47:22,800
Speaker 1: New York twelve and maybe he never had a shot

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00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:25,719
Speaker 1: of winning anyway, but one of the candidates, uh in

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00:47:25,719 --> 00:47:28,680
Speaker 1: New York call made a point about like repealing the

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00:47:28,719 --> 00:47:34,840
Speaker 1: foreigne Rege Act of clearly an odd lots fan um

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00:47:35,160 --> 00:47:38,239
Speaker 1: sarage pateel Uh. Maybe we should have on at some

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00:47:38,280 --> 00:47:40,520
Speaker 1: point and talk about that. But it was interesting because

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00:47:40,560 --> 00:47:43,400
Speaker 1: it's like that's not a big vote mover, you know.

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00:47:43,160 --> 00:47:45,400
Speaker 1: And granted he didn't make that like the centerpiece of

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00:47:45,440 --> 00:47:48,480
Speaker 1: his campaign, but it does seem to you know, get more,

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00:47:49,040 --> 00:47:52,160
Speaker 1: take take home more of your money, tax cuts, etcetera.

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00:47:52,480 --> 00:47:55,040
Speaker 1: The language exists, to Ezra is in initial point the

880
00:47:55,160 --> 00:47:58,680
Speaker 1: language of these sort of like taxes or vouchers that exists.

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00:47:59,080 --> 00:48:03,560
Speaker 1: What is the political language of talking about dredge capacity? Right?

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00:48:03,840 --> 00:48:06,040
Speaker 1: I think that's a really important point, which is that

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00:48:06,520 --> 00:48:10,480
Speaker 1: you know, as are mentioned that info gathering idea that

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00:48:10,560 --> 00:48:13,200
Speaker 1: all these politicians in d C have had to suddenly

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00:48:13,239 --> 00:48:15,920
Speaker 1: get up to speed on things like the ports over

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00:48:15,960 --> 00:48:18,400
Speaker 1: the last couple of years. But then it's also the

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00:48:18,480 --> 00:48:21,280
Speaker 1: voting population, right, like all of these people are suddenly

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00:48:21,280 --> 00:48:23,520
Speaker 1: going to have to form opinions on things like the

889
00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:26,440
Speaker 1: Foreign Drudge Act and how do we actually do the

890
00:48:26,520 --> 00:48:30,319
Speaker 1: voters are not it seems unless they listen, it seems tough.

891
00:48:30,400 --> 00:48:32,120
Speaker 1: But on the other hand, you know, if the pitches

892
00:48:32,239 --> 00:48:34,720
Speaker 1: this is something that can help the economy and push

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00:48:34,760 --> 00:48:39,080
Speaker 1: down prices, then maybe that's a simplistic way into it. Yeah,

894
00:48:39,239 --> 00:48:41,520
Speaker 1: a lot there. Okay, are we going to leave it there?

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00:48:41,640 --> 00:48:44,680
Speaker 1: Let's leave it there. Okay. This has been another episode

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00:48:44,719 --> 00:48:47,200
Speaker 1: of the All Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can

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00:48:47,239 --> 00:48:49,919
Speaker 1: follow me on Twitter at Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe

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00:48:50,120 --> 00:48:52,960
Speaker 1: Isn't All. You can follow me on Twitter at the Stalwart.

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00:48:53,280 --> 00:48:56,400
Speaker 1: Follow our guest As Recline on Twitter at as Reclined,

900
00:48:56,640 --> 00:49:00,799
Speaker 1: follow our producer Kerman Rodriguez at Carmen Armand, and check

901
00:49:00,800 --> 00:49:03,680
Speaker 1: out all of the podcasts at Bloomberg under the handle

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00:49:04,040 --> 00:49:05,800
Speaker 1: at podcasts. Thanks for listening.