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Speaker 1: So they're not going to be a part of NATO.

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Speaker 1: But we've got the European nations and they'll frontload it,

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Speaker 1: and they'll have some of them France, in Germany, a

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Speaker 1: couple of them UK. They want to have boots on

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Speaker 1: the ground, not in. I don't think it's going to

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Speaker 1: be a problem, to be honest with you. I think

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Speaker 1: I think Putin is tired of it. I think they're

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Speaker 1: all tired of it. But you never know. We're going

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Speaker 1: to find out about President Putin in the next couple

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Speaker 1: of weeks that I can tell you, and we're going

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Speaker 1: to see where it all goes. Is it possible that

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Speaker 1: he doesn't want to make a deal.

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Speaker 2: That Vladimir Putin is going to continue to commit war crimes,

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Speaker 2: that he has a significant military force, that he needs

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Speaker 2: to be stopped, and that he is in every sense,

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Speaker 2: I'll use a nautical term here, putting a shot across

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Speaker 2: the bow the president of the United States. We had

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Speaker 2: to be mindful of that and respond to it with

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Speaker 2: real force and strength.

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Speaker 3: That's James Stravitus on CNN, former NATO commander, and he

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Speaker 3: and Trump someone in line there that Putin may just

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Speaker 3: want to keep prosecuting this war. Now, as to boots

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Speaker 3: on the ground and all that sort of stuff, Trump

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Speaker 3: offered up some security guarantees yesterday, including saying the US

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Speaker 3: will have the back, and wanted to clear that up

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Speaker 3: today apparently because just moments ago he said, you have

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Speaker 3: my assurance no US boots on the ground in Ukraine.

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Speaker 3: So he has definitively ruled that out.

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Speaker 4: Well, let's discuss all of this with the military analyst

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Speaker 4: Mike Lyons, who, among his many experiences, served as an

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Speaker 4: aide de camp to a general officer in NATO command

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Speaker 4: back in the day. Mike, as we started the show,

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Speaker 4: first of all, greetings, is always good to talk.

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Speaker 5: How are you hey, It's great to be back with you.

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Speaker 6: Thank you.

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Speaker 4: So we started the show today with a discussion of okay,

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Speaker 4: in spite of the amazing pictures from the White House

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Speaker 4: and all of the diplomacy and the meetings, and it

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Speaker 4: was really quite something.

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Speaker 6: Now comes the hard part.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, for sure, this is probably the beginning of the

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Speaker 5: beginning if you're looking for some kind of analogy here,

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Speaker 5: And the hard part is going to be getting Russian

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Speaker 5: negotiators sit to sit down with Ukraine negotiators as well

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Speaker 5: as the United states here trying to figure out how

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Speaker 5: to redraw that map. I think Delenski has come to

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Speaker 5: the conclusion that he's going to lose territory, and the

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Speaker 5: Russia does already occupy. They've took it from a military perspective,

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Speaker 5: so they've got to figure out what that is now.

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Speaker 5: If the Ukraine negotiators or the team that they have

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Speaker 5: on that side, if they doesn't think he's going to

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Speaker 5: get that through his Congress or his government, then that

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Speaker 5: this is all for naught because he doesn't have this

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Speaker 5: power to just give land away on Ukraine. So there's

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Speaker 5: definitely a hard part here. You saw the German chances

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Speaker 5: of trying to get a ceasefire, because you wake up

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Speaker 5: this morning and Russia continues to attack civilian targets inside Ukraine,

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Speaker 5: and frankly, I still don't think there's enough leverage being

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Speaker 5: put on Latimer Kutin want to stop this anytime soon.

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Speaker 5: So I think we've got a waste to go.

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Speaker 3: So all the talk of security guarantees, if Trump or

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Speaker 3: if Putin would agree to some sort of deal, the

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Speaker 3: security guarantees, British troops on the ground, French troops on

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Speaker 3: the ground, and then a backup of the United States.

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Speaker 3: It's interesting that so one of Putin's red lines is

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Speaker 3: no NATO guarantees, and so Trump's getting around that by okay,

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Speaker 3: we'll have different We'll have some of the European countries

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Speaker 3: that are in NATO and have a guarantee with them.

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Speaker 3: But so what does that all look like to you?

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Speaker 3: And how easily could we get pulled into the whole thing?

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Speaker 5: Well, I think we'll still provide air cover, air defense

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Speaker 5: systems that will still be involved with the security guarantee.

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Speaker 5: But just the boots on the ground is where that

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Speaker 5: thing could get, you know, cut sideways quick looking for

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Speaker 5: like a historical analysis, you'd go back to the date

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Speaker 5: and the cords in Bonsi and Serbia when the United

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Speaker 5: States did put boots on the ground inside that country.

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Speaker 5: But they brought a lot of combat power to the

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Speaker 5: battlefield than I do remember some conversation taking place between

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Speaker 5: the general that ran it and Melosovich himself saying, if

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Speaker 5: you even look sideways at when any one of our

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Speaker 5: soldiers were going to come and destroy all of you.

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Speaker 5: So the question is the security guarantee is greatest? Is

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Speaker 5: what combat power will they bring to the battlefield? You know,

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Speaker 5: twenty to thirty thousand troops of French and British troops

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Speaker 5: are going to need logistical support, and they're going to

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Speaker 5: have to be enough of a threat that would keep

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Speaker 5: Russia at bay. So again, a lot of has to

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Speaker 5: be fleshed out when it comes to what that security

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Speaker 5: agreement looks like.

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Speaker 4: And rewinding just a bit back to the topic of

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Speaker 4: Vladimir Putin. Given the reality on the battlefield right now

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Speaker 4: and his goals, how much incentive do you think he

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Speaker 4: has to actually negotiate in a serious way.

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Speaker 5: I don't think he has much yet, and I think

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Speaker 5: that we should have already put the sanctions on. And

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Speaker 5: I think the Biden administration wasted all of their time.

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Speaker 5: And you know, he is longer, he could kind of

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Speaker 5: let this go. It makes he thinks, it makes Zelensky

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Speaker 5: look weak, and eventually his goal was to get rid

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Speaker 5: of him. He's looking for a win here. He'll he'll

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Speaker 5: take the wind being the land that he's captured, let's

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Speaker 5: say inside Ukraine. He didn't get the whole country, but

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Speaker 5: he's going to do other things to try to destroy Zolensky,

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Speaker 5: that's for sure. You know, I don't see this monoca

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Speaker 5: Bagan Sadat Jimmy Carter moment to three of them, Putin,

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Speaker 5: Trump and Zolensky, you know, shaking hands and raising their

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Speaker 5: you know, signing some peace of preement. I think we're

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Speaker 5: away from that.

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Speaker 3: Man, just stepping back and looking at for a moment.

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Speaker 3: The idea that Russia twenty thousand dead last month, a

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Speaker 3: million over a million casualties at this point, and tens

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Speaker 3: of thousands of Ukraine's that it's just shocking that this

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Speaker 3: is going on, isn't it.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, it just.

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Speaker 5: Shows you the level of control he has over the country,

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Speaker 5: right Russia, with eleven time zones and enclaves in all

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Speaker 5: these different areas, and the fact that he can control

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Speaker 5: the message, and the fact that there hasn't been revolution,

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Speaker 5: there hasn't been anything that's come from Russian mothers. I mean,

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Speaker 5: that's kind of a Western narrative to try to think

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Speaker 5: that there's going to be this internal Russian pressure to

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Speaker 5: get Vladimir Putin to stop that that's just not going

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Speaker 5: to happen. He's able to pick different Russian tribes still

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Speaker 5: out and send them to the battlefield into the meat

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Speaker 5: grinder fundamentally of their death, and then he'll continue to

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Speaker 5: do that because they have four times the amount of

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Speaker 5: people that Ukraine does.

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Speaker 6: Mike Lions military analyst is on the line.

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Speaker 4: Mike, before we let you go, I've been reading a

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Speaker 4: fair amount about our incredible deficit in shipbuilding and capacity

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Speaker 4: for growth of our navies compared to China.

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Speaker 6: How dire is that situation in your mind? It's bad.

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Speaker 5: I think we have time to catch up. The fact

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Speaker 5: that we recognize that it's a problem. I think this

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Speaker 5: administration does recognize it is it is an issue. The

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Speaker 5: question has always been the maritime capability of moving equipment

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Speaker 5: across from the United States to the where a combat

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Speaker 5: will place, which is why this pivot to the Pacific

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Speaker 5: is so important. China, though, has gotten well out in

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Speaker 5: front of the United States when it comes to docks

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Speaker 5: and it comes to the automation that they have and

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Speaker 5: containers and then the like. We just haven't prioritized it.

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Speaker 5: But I think you'll see more emphasis as navies project power.

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Speaker 5: This is both real politic and gunbolt diplomacy is still

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Speaker 5: very much in vogue in the way the world works

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Speaker 5: right now, so I'm concerned about it. I got a

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Speaker 5: son of the Navy, so I'm vested in what happens here,

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Speaker 5: but I do believe that we're moving in the right direction.

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Speaker 6: I add one more question. It's back to Ukraine.

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Speaker 4: Sorry for the jumbled order here, but one of the

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Speaker 4: great headlines from that battlefield is the use of drones

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Speaker 4: and automated tools and weapons and that sort of thing.

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Speaker 4: What do you hear from our own defense establishment? How

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Speaker 4: hard are we working at keeping up with that technology.

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Speaker 5: It's incredible the amount of things that are taking place

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Speaker 5: in the AI drone space. I know at the Military

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Speaker 5: Academy of the complete focus now shifted towards drone technology,

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Speaker 5: adding drones to all of the different training that they're doing.

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Speaker 5: We're going to get to the point where a drone

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Speaker 5: will be part of a basic kit of an infantry soldier,

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Speaker 5: aside from their weapon and canteen and the like. The technology, yeah,

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Speaker 5: it's either from an intel gathering perspective, dropping grenade or whatever.

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Speaker 5: There are so many things that have changed warfare that

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Speaker 5: we've learned, and we're going to continue to move that forward.

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Speaker 5: But I know at the Military Academy in particular, there's

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Speaker 5: so much focus plus working. I'm working with some a

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Speaker 5: lot of startup companies that are looking to create different

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Speaker 5: missions for these different kinds of drones and doing a

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Speaker 5: lot of different things, and you lay the artificial intelligence

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Speaker 5: over that. You know, we're not there yet where they're

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Speaker 5: going to determine the targets. But you know the things

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Speaker 5: about the drones and the AI is that you know

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Speaker 5: it can hubver forever, it can take a lot of

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Speaker 5: time and can be selective on targets, and it's really

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Speaker 5: changing the way at the battlefield of commanders. Have a

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Speaker 5: look at the battlefield.

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Speaker 4: You ought to follow him on x at Major Mike Lyons.

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Speaker 4: Mike always great to talk. Thanks so much for the.

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Speaker 5: Insight, great, thanks for having me.

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Speaker 6: Thank you. So Trump said this yesterday.

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Speaker 3: Trump says Putin agreed to accept security guarantees.

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Speaker 6: What I just don't believe that.

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Speaker 3: And I don't understand why Trump believes it, or if

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Speaker 3: Trump believes it, maybe he's just going along for now

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Speaker 3: to see if Trump, if Putin backs that up or not.

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Speaker 4: But the presumptive clothes he accepted some security guarantees, so

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Speaker 4: I'm sure he'll accept these security guarantees.

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Speaker 3: But I heard this on Friday and I forgot to

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Speaker 3: mention it yesterday. I think this is huge Leon Panetto

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Speaker 3: was on one of the shows I think on CNN.

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Speaker 3: He's he's been one of my favorite Democrats my whole life,

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Speaker 3: and he was Obama's sect deaf and CIA director. He said,

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Speaker 3: I was happy that there was not a ceasefire. Ceasefires

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Speaker 3: are where borders have been drawn all around the world.

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Speaker 3: You have a ceasefire, the border's frozen. You never get

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Speaker 3: that land back. If Ukraine wants any chance of getting

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Speaker 3: any land back, or wants different borders than what they

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Speaker 3: are now, you do not want a ceasefire. And I

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Speaker 3: haven't heard anybody else say that, but that's clearly true.

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Speaker 4: Well, the problem is that Russia is on the front foot,

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Speaker 4: so I could see Ukraine saying, yeah, let's freeze them

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Speaker 4: now before we lose those four critical defensive cities in

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Speaker 4: the East. But why would Russia agree to that, because

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Speaker 4: they don't want to spend all those lives machine gun fodder. No,

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Speaker 4: they're spending them Willynilly.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: But the idea that the borders get locked in place

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Speaker 3: on a ceasefire, I didn't hear anybody else bring up

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Speaker 3: the entire weekend other than Leon Panetta, And that is

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Speaker 3: what happens lots of times see Korea.

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Speaker 4: How does that differ though from a more extensive peace

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Speaker 4: settlement might have better borders.

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Speaker 3: I guess, yeah, you can argue over where the border's

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Speaker 3: going to be. You do the ceasefire and it just

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Speaker 3: gets locked there. All the troops get lined up to

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Speaker 3: force the ceasefire, and he just you never moved the

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Speaker 3: borders again.

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Speaker 4: So read a great piece about US Russian relations that

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Speaker 4: mentioned the big Armenian Azerbaijani agreement the other day that

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Speaker 4: I'd thought, oh, that's nice, they're not killing each other.

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Speaker 6: That was a major blow to Putin.

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Speaker 3: Didn't know that.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, we'll get to that in a little bit.

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Speaker 4: The drive by inch deep analysis of Trump's foreign policy

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Speaker 4: misses a lot, and Trump makes me nuts.

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Speaker 6: But there's a lot going on. Man.

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Speaker 3: There is some AI therapy stories out there that we

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Speaker 3: should discuss.

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Speaker 6: That's it.

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Speaker 3: It's its own interesting realm and world. You should be

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Speaker 3: aware of this, especially if your kids are doing it

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Speaker 3: on their own. I don't know how you stop them.

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Speaker 3: But anyway, I got a whole bunch of things to

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Speaker 3: talk about today. Stay here,