1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:05,480 Speaker 1: Why the odds of a another recession are Now. I 2 00:00:05,519 --> 00:00:07,800 Speaker 1: know that sounds like it's almost certain, But in life, 3 00:00:07,800 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: there's no such thing as certainties. There's only probabilities, which, 4 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:12,920 Speaker 1: of course I say, and my good friend George Gammon 5 00:00:13,000 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 1: says all the time on his channel. So I sat 6 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,080 Speaker 1: down with him to dig into what are the odds 7 00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:21,319 Speaker 1: of a recession? More importantly, what are the odds that 8 00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:23,880 Speaker 1: he thinks that there's another big market crash coming in 9 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:26,960 Speaker 1: front of us? Why Michael Burry says there's one coming 10 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:30,960 Speaker 1: for sure. Remember, no certainties, only probabilities. We talk about that. 11 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:35,199 Speaker 1: We talk about the fundamentals of the market, what is 12 00:00:35,280 --> 00:00:38,400 Speaker 1: causing g d P rope to stall. We talked about 13 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:41,440 Speaker 1: the difference of the fiat money system versus a fractional 14 00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:45,680 Speaker 1: reserve system, what a sound money system looks like, free banking, 15 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:49,440 Speaker 1: and gold and bitcoin. We talk about his run ins 16 00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:53,279 Speaker 1: with the bitcoin community, the diffusion of innovation, where we're 17 00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:55,760 Speaker 1: at in the market cycle. It's so much more. This 18 00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:58,040 Speaker 1: is a great interview, always a good time hanging out 19 00:00:58,080 --> 00:01:01,520 Speaker 1: with George. Let's go ahead jump right into it, all right, 20 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:03,720 Speaker 1: So we've been having fun, George, but let's get into 21 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:06,080 Speaker 1: some meat here. So I got a I got a 22 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:08,480 Speaker 1: lot of questions I want to ask you. Um, I 23 00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:12,120 Speaker 1: want to talk about the economy and the chance of 24 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:14,800 Speaker 1: recession that you're talking about. Um, I want to get 25 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:18,560 Speaker 1: into assets, buying them when they're cheap and when they're expensive, 26 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:21,119 Speaker 1: and some stuff you've been talking about on your second channel, 27 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:25,319 Speaker 1: Rebel Capitalist channel. Um. And Uh, anyway, let's see how 28 00:01:25,360 --> 00:01:28,160 Speaker 1: much we can get through. Of course, you need no introduction. 29 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:30,760 Speaker 1: Everybody on my channel should know you by now. Uh. 30 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:35,480 Speaker 1: George Gammon, amazing, amazing macro addict as you call yourself. 31 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:37,119 Speaker 1: And uh, I'd like to call you a good friend 32 00:01:37,160 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 1: as well. So George, let's just jump right into it. Um, 33 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 1: you've Twitter, I'm sorry. Uh, YouTube, the algorithms. I think 34 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 1: that the people like the fear porn, right, Uh. I 35 00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:54,760 Speaker 1: made videos like that are hopeful, and people just don't 36 00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:56,440 Speaker 1: seem to like them. But when you talk about the 37 00:01:56,440 --> 00:01:59,520 Speaker 1: world coming to an end, it seems like, uh, it 38 00:01:59,560 --> 00:02:01,240 Speaker 1: seems like YouTube lacks them. I mean, do you see 39 00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:05,680 Speaker 1: the same thing. Yeah. I think the balancing act for 40 00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 1: me is I just try to stay authentic and do 41 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 1: videos based on on what I'm personally thinking about. And uh, 42 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 1: I'm someone that believes that the fundamentals of the economy 43 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:24,919 Speaker 1: are incredibly unsound, and I also believe that most people 44 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:30,760 Speaker 1: are in the dark about how uh these fundamentals could 45 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:36,880 Speaker 1: impact the future of the standard of living for society 46 00:02:36,919 --> 00:02:40,720 Speaker 1: at large. And you know, they're gonna listen to CNBC 47 00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:43,760 Speaker 1: and they're gonna hear just by the dip, They're gonna hear, 48 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:48,280 Speaker 1: you know, sixty forty the portfolios are are the economy's booming. 49 00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:51,280 Speaker 1: Remember Biden comes out says the economy is on fire, 50 00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:55,880 Speaker 1: blah blah blah blah blah. So when I hear that, 51 00:02:56,480 --> 00:03:01,000 Speaker 1: I get plenty of that, you know, positive kind of opinion. 52 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:05,119 Speaker 1: And for me, I always am very skeptical and I'm 53 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:08,520 Speaker 1: a contrarian by nature, and especially when I hear something 54 00:03:08,560 --> 00:03:13,120 Speaker 1: from a central planner, the government, or an authoritarian, I 55 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:15,360 Speaker 1: step back and say, wait a minute, whatever they're saying 56 00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:19,239 Speaker 1: the opposite is probably true. So that's what kind of 57 00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:21,440 Speaker 1: leads me down the path. And that's why I'm thinking 58 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:26,320 Speaker 1: about some of these, um we'll call them fundamental cracks 59 00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:30,040 Speaker 1: within the economy. And therefore that's what I'm talking about 60 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:32,600 Speaker 1: on my channel. And when I kind of think through it. 61 00:03:32,639 --> 00:03:34,320 Speaker 1: I'm like, you know what, I think this is actually 62 00:03:34,720 --> 00:03:39,320 Speaker 1: or hopefully hopefully a service to most people because they 63 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 1: get kind of the risks from maybe my channel and 64 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:46,640 Speaker 1: your channel channel, and then they get kind of the 65 00:03:46,720 --> 00:03:50,680 Speaker 1: more rosy view when they talk to their financial planner 66 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:55,680 Speaker 1: or they listen to Dave Ramsey or Susie Orman or CNBC. 67 00:03:56,280 --> 00:03:58,440 Speaker 1: So I think that we, at the very least we 68 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:01,200 Speaker 1: have a balancing effect. But then of course I would 69 00:04:01,240 --> 00:04:05,120 Speaker 1: argue that we are most likely correct and they are 70 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:10,520 Speaker 1: wrong based on the probabilities. Yeah, so that's what I 71 00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:12,880 Speaker 1: want to talk about. You say that all the time 72 00:04:12,920 --> 00:04:19,279 Speaker 1: there's no certainties, there's only probabilities, and so let's talk probabilities. Um, 73 00:04:19,320 --> 00:04:22,520 Speaker 1: I made a video and I said, are you are you? 74 00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:25,359 Speaker 1: Is it a hundred percent guaranteed the markets are going 75 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:30,240 Speaker 1: to crash? Or is it? Well, if it's only nine cent, 76 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:32,200 Speaker 1: let's take a look at that ten percent. And oh, 77 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:35,880 Speaker 1: people didn't I'm unsubscribing. How dare you say that the 78 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:38,520 Speaker 1: markets aren't gonna crash? I was like wow, I was 79 00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:40,320 Speaker 1: just like, I want to look at the probabilities. Now 80 00:04:40,320 --> 00:04:42,680 Speaker 1: you've made a recent video on your channel, the odds 81 00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:49,920 Speaker 1: of recession, are so okay, then there's a one percent chance. Uh, 82 00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:52,039 Speaker 1: they're not gonna crash. I mean when I and the 83 00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:54,600 Speaker 1: only reason into a hunter just because there are no certainties. 84 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:57,719 Speaker 1: Because there's no certainties. Now I want to talk about 85 00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:00,440 Speaker 1: that the probability of that the base case. But you 86 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:02,599 Speaker 1: just said something before, you said, the fundamentals of the 87 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 1: economy are unsound, no doubt. When you look at the data, 88 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:09,680 Speaker 1: I mean, any data you want, I mean, it is 89 00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:13,240 Speaker 1: it looks like there's absolute blood bath. But we also learned, 90 00:05:13,560 --> 00:05:16,240 Speaker 1: if we didn't already know, we learned in that the 91 00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:19,680 Speaker 1: economy does not equal the markets. So you literally shut 92 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:22,840 Speaker 1: the whole world down and all assets went to new 93 00:05:22,839 --> 00:05:26,240 Speaker 1: all time highs. So, and that's one of the arguments 94 00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:29,479 Speaker 1: that I would have for the economy being unsound, is 95 00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:33,720 Speaker 1: that it's completely propped up by asset bubbles. Right, So, uh, 96 00:05:34,040 --> 00:05:37,200 Speaker 1: no doubt. No one can argue the data. The fundamentals 97 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:39,160 Speaker 1: of the economy being unsound are there, and it's only 98 00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:42,640 Speaker 1: getting worse, but they don't equal. They don't equal the market. 99 00:05:42,760 --> 00:05:45,360 Speaker 1: So first of all, you talk about the recession, you're 100 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:47,600 Speaker 1: talking about the recession in the economy, or you're talking 101 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:51,960 Speaker 1: about asset prices falling a recession in the economy recession, 102 00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:54,880 Speaker 1: and it could be the global economy as well. I 103 00:05:54,960 --> 00:05:57,279 Speaker 1: highly doubt that would exclude the United States, because really 104 00:05:57,320 --> 00:06:00,520 Speaker 1: the bond market is the global or the tread remarket 105 00:06:01,000 --> 00:06:04,200 Speaker 1: is the global bond market to a certain degree. But 106 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:07,640 Speaker 1: where I came to that number is just by going 107 00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:11,880 Speaker 1: back to nineteen fifty and uh I used the one 108 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:14,800 Speaker 1: year in the in the ten year as far as 109 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:19,880 Speaker 1: the yield and looking at the the yield curve between 110 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:23,440 Speaker 1: those two maturities and then seeing you know how often 111 00:06:23,560 --> 00:06:27,960 Speaker 1: that has predicted recession. And my memory serves me right. 112 00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:32,440 Speaker 1: Since the nineteen fifty there has been eleven official recessions, 113 00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:36,640 Speaker 1: and the inversion of the one in ten as predicted 114 00:06:36,880 --> 00:06:41,240 Speaker 1: ten of those eleven, and we have never had a recession, 115 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:45,279 Speaker 1: by the way, without an inversion of that one and 116 00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 1: ten year curve. Now you say, okay, George, well that's 117 00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:53,600 Speaker 1: not exactly. Maybe there's some leiggle room. Look in nineteen 118 00:06:53,680 --> 00:06:56,440 Speaker 1: sixty five, and that was the year we had an 119 00:06:56,440 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 1: inversion of pretty significant inversion of the one year in 120 00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:03,359 Speaker 1: a tenure and we did not have an official recession. 121 00:07:04,080 --> 00:07:07,320 Speaker 1: And those people would be correct but Mark, I don't 122 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 1: know if you, I know, you're a student of financial history, 123 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 1: so you might know this one. But between about five 124 00:07:14,440 --> 00:07:17,240 Speaker 1: or ten months after that we had that inversion. In 125 00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 1: nineteen six, real GDP growth went from ten point one 126 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 1: percent down to point two, not too point two. So yeah, 127 00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:33,400 Speaker 1: we didn't get a recession. But I mean, is there 128 00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:37,520 Speaker 1: really any difference between you know, a decrease of ten 129 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:40,800 Speaker 1: percent in in GDP growth and if we were to 130 00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:43,560 Speaker 1: have gone from maybe three pent GDP growth down to 131 00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:46,760 Speaker 1: negative two. I mean, I think the impact on society 132 00:07:47,320 --> 00:07:52,520 Speaker 1: is identical, and that's why I kind of got that number. 133 00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:56,000 Speaker 1: Now I would add further evidence. So that's just when 134 00:07:56,000 --> 00:07:59,320 Speaker 1: we're talking about the one and the ten. Now, if 135 00:07:59,320 --> 00:08:02,400 Speaker 1: you look at the current yield curve, it's not just 136 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 1: the two intent, it's not just the one intent. It's 137 00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:09,040 Speaker 1: not the sixth month. We've gone to a point where 138 00:08:09,080 --> 00:08:11,280 Speaker 1: we are today at least last time I checked a 139 00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:18,120 Speaker 1: few days ago where the thirty year treasury, the thirty 140 00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:23,080 Speaker 1: year treasury is under reverse repo. So let me just 141 00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:25,360 Speaker 1: walk your audience through that. If if I don't know, 142 00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 1: if you've done many videos on reverse repo, but that's 143 00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:32,440 Speaker 1: the interest rate. The FED sets UH to create a 144 00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:37,160 Speaker 1: floor on interest rates throughout the entire economy. So the 145 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:40,760 Speaker 1: FED has the discount rate, it's got IOWA, which is 146 00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:44,520 Speaker 1: basically like FED funds, and then it's got the repo 147 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:49,120 Speaker 1: and so this is usually a spread about twive basis points. 148 00:08:49,520 --> 00:08:52,360 Speaker 1: And right now reverse repo is at three point eight 149 00:08:52,520 --> 00:08:56,040 Speaker 1: So why is this a floor? A theoretical floor, because 150 00:08:56,080 --> 00:08:58,439 Speaker 1: this is the FED saying that you can park your 151 00:08:58,520 --> 00:09:01,440 Speaker 1: cash here like a money mark, get fund, and we 152 00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:05,160 Speaker 1: will pay you risk free three point eight percent. It's 153 00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:09,720 Speaker 1: totally risk free. So why would anyone put their money 154 00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:14,200 Speaker 1: in any other asset that yields less than three point 155 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:18,080 Speaker 1: eight percent. That's the kind of the idea. But right now, 156 00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:21,319 Speaker 1: the what the yield curve is telling us is the 157 00:09:21,320 --> 00:09:26,040 Speaker 1: the economy is so screwed up. The government has created 158 00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:32,880 Speaker 1: so many economic UH distortions, malinvestment, and misallocations of resources 159 00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 1: that the thirty year Treasury is trading below the yield 160 00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:40,920 Speaker 1: on the third year Treasury, below that three point eight 161 00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:44,880 Speaker 1: percent that the FED sets as a floor for interest 162 00:09:45,000 --> 00:09:48,400 Speaker 1: rates in the entire economy. And then the next question becomes, well, 163 00:09:48,440 --> 00:09:51,679 Speaker 1: it does the FED really control interest rates? And I 164 00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:55,720 Speaker 1: would say obviously not and that and that that's proof 165 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:59,280 Speaker 1: in and of itself. But this is how dire the 166 00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 1: situation is right now. And I could go onto the 167 00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:06,200 Speaker 1: inversion and the your dollar future curve, and it's just 168 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:09,480 Speaker 1: red flag after red flag after red flag. And I 169 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:13,319 Speaker 1: think the only thing that the bulls can hang their 170 00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:17,480 Speaker 1: hat on is the fact that we have unemployment at 171 00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:21,240 Speaker 1: three point seven per cent or I guess they could say, well, 172 00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:23,600 Speaker 1: we've seen the CPI come down from eight point to 173 00:10:24,080 --> 00:10:27,120 Speaker 1: the seven point seven, but I would argue that just 174 00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:30,160 Speaker 1: because the CPI is coming down, that doesn't mean that 175 00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:32,800 Speaker 1: we're having an economic boom. I mean, just look at 176 00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:36,360 Speaker 1: the Great Depression, right, cp I came way down then, yeah, 177 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:38,640 Speaker 1: and oh, by the way, cp I came way way 178 00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:41,679 Speaker 1: down in two thousand eight during the GFC, But that 179 00:10:41,920 --> 00:10:45,760 Speaker 1: wasn't necessarily good for markets, was it. And um, so 180 00:10:45,880 --> 00:10:48,440 Speaker 1: those are kind of the main dynamics that I'm looking 181 00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:51,000 Speaker 1: at right now, and I think that's should be not 182 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:53,600 Speaker 1: just on everyone's radar, but I think that should be 183 00:10:53,679 --> 00:10:55,880 Speaker 1: front and center. And one more thing I'll add to 184 00:10:55,920 --> 00:10:58,960 Speaker 1: that mark is, uh, the last time I checked, and 185 00:10:58,960 --> 00:11:00,439 Speaker 1: this would have been last week, or so. When I 186 00:11:00,480 --> 00:11:04,640 Speaker 1: did that whiteboard video, the point of inversion on the 187 00:11:04,720 --> 00:11:07,760 Speaker 1: curve was between the one year and the two year, 188 00:11:08,480 --> 00:11:12,560 Speaker 1: meaning everything below the one year or at anything and 189 00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:15,440 Speaker 1: with a higher maturity than one year was trading at 190 00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:19,120 Speaker 1: a lower yield. So the point was between the one 191 00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:21,400 Speaker 1: year and the two year. Now what I think you're 192 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 1: gonna see is that point getting uh, going to getting 193 00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:31,240 Speaker 1: shorter and shorter on the curve right as far as maturity. 194 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:34,160 Speaker 1: So right now the inversion starts between the one and 195 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:36,720 Speaker 1: the two. I think we'll see it go from six 196 00:11:36,760 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 1: to one, and then all the way from like one 197 00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:42,720 Speaker 1: to three to where the one month is trading higher 198 00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:45,400 Speaker 1: than the three months. And then the last stop is 199 00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:49,000 Speaker 1: that the one month treasury is trading less than FED funds. 200 00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:52,480 Speaker 1: And when you see that, that's the bond market telling 201 00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:56,520 Speaker 1: you or predicting that that's kind of the rough time 202 00:11:56,559 --> 00:12:00,280 Speaker 1: frame uh, in which you'll see a FED pivot. Mm 203 00:12:00,360 --> 00:12:03,840 Speaker 1: hm A couple I saw. I saw a chart the 204 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:05,800 Speaker 1: other day, I think it was yesterday, day before of 205 00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:10,160 Speaker 1: the global market is inverted. So they averaged out all 206 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:14,760 Speaker 1: the bond yields globally and like the whole world is inverted. 207 00:12:14,840 --> 00:12:16,880 Speaker 1: On their yields. I didn't know that, but that's that 208 00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:18,840 Speaker 1: that makes a lot of sense. I know Snyder has 209 00:12:18,880 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 1: been talking about the German market inversion, and that's even 210 00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:27,319 Speaker 1: in his opinion, more significant or probably just as significant 211 00:12:27,559 --> 00:12:30,360 Speaker 1: as the treasury market. Yeah. Now, when you talk about 212 00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:33,719 Speaker 1: um some of these things that show that potentially that 213 00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:36,400 Speaker 1: the economy is kind of doing okay, like the unemployment number, 214 00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:38,880 Speaker 1: for example, we also know that that number is super flawed. 215 00:12:38,880 --> 00:12:40,920 Speaker 1: If you dig into the data, we can see that 216 00:12:40,960 --> 00:12:44,360 Speaker 1: the participation rate is at all time low, and we 217 00:12:44,400 --> 00:12:46,960 Speaker 1: can see even deeper that a lot of the reason 218 00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 1: why the unemployment data actually looks somewhat decent is because 219 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:52,520 Speaker 1: people have taken multiple jobs and most of the jobs 220 00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:54,800 Speaker 1: they they have taken are actually paying less than they 221 00:12:54,800 --> 00:12:57,400 Speaker 1: were before. So just because that's why can that's why 222 00:12:57,440 --> 00:13:01,160 Speaker 1: you can have low unemployment but to quarters of consecutive 223 00:13:01,160 --> 00:13:05,800 Speaker 1: negative GDP growth because productivity tanks. Yeah, so you get 224 00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 1: everybody in the whole world working at a dollar an hour, 225 00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:10,840 Speaker 1: doesn't mean that's good. We're producing a dollar an hour 226 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:14,400 Speaker 1: or producing a dollar an hour doesn't mean it's good. Now, again, 227 00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:17,920 Speaker 1: if we go back and separate, seeing that the economy 228 00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 1: and the markets do not mean anything. And so to 229 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:21,760 Speaker 1: the point you know the economy is getting bad, Well, 230 00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:23,559 Speaker 1: let's look back just a couple of years ago when 231 00:13:23,559 --> 00:13:25,640 Speaker 1: we actually shut the economy down. I mean, who could 232 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:28,079 Speaker 1: have ever imagined we do that? But yet markets rallied 233 00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:30,520 Speaker 1: to all time high. So now you take that the recession, 234 00:13:30,920 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 1: I guess typically looking at the economy itself and the 235 00:13:34,679 --> 00:13:37,240 Speaker 1: productivity of the economy. Um. And then you have another 236 00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:40,240 Speaker 1: video that you did about Michael Burry predicting another huge crash. 237 00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:43,280 Speaker 1: So the crash then is in in markets and assets. 238 00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:47,960 Speaker 1: So do you think that the economy struggling and potentially 239 00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:53,000 Speaker 1: going into a recession um equals markets crashing or or 240 00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:56,520 Speaker 1: I shouldn't say equal, but will lead to that high probability. Yeah, yeah, 241 00:13:56,520 --> 00:14:00,520 Speaker 1: I get your point. Well, Bury was talking out the 242 00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:03,640 Speaker 1: economy and then I think his point was that would 243 00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 1: definitely impact asset prices. But I think if we look um, yes, 244 00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:15,320 Speaker 1: So I'm just thinking through the best way to articulate this. 245 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:18,679 Speaker 1: I do think that if we have a significant recession 246 00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:23,160 Speaker 1: in the real economy and the real economy, this will 247 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:30,240 Speaker 1: initially impact asset prices, but then it depends, right, it 248 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:33,960 Speaker 1: depends on the response by not just the Federal Reserve, 249 00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:38,560 Speaker 1: but probably more importantly now the government. So we go 250 00:14:38,680 --> 00:14:43,200 Speaker 1: back to March. Let's use that as an example. Everyone remembers, 251 00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:45,080 Speaker 1: you know, we had the news come out about the 252 00:14:45,200 --> 00:14:48,160 Speaker 1: we'll call it the surveys of sickness, and everyone was 253 00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:51,560 Speaker 1: just kind of on Wall Street and panic mode. And 254 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 1: the Fed was scheduled to have a meeting on a Wednesday, 255 00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:56,800 Speaker 1: and they had an emergency meeting on a Sunday prior 256 00:14:57,640 --> 00:15:00,360 Speaker 1: and they dropped rates from I believe it was one 257 00:15:00,400 --> 00:15:03,800 Speaker 1: percent down to zero. They came out and announced or 258 00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:06,960 Speaker 1: committed to up to one trillion a day in repo, 259 00:15:07,200 --> 00:15:11,840 Speaker 1: and then they basically implemented QEWI infinity, and the very 260 00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:15,320 Speaker 1: next day, the market still the Dow was down still 261 00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:18,400 Speaker 1: by like ff points, and then it continued to just 262 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:24,080 Speaker 1: absolutely plummet and the market didn't turn around until the 263 00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:28,080 Speaker 1: government came in with the Cares Act, which let's remember 264 00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:31,720 Speaker 1: they did that in an environment where the cp I, 265 00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:35,920 Speaker 1: if my memory serves me, well, was sub two. You know, 266 00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:37,760 Speaker 1: So then the question becomes can they do that again? 267 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:42,520 Speaker 1: But if it wasn't for the government intervention and or 268 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:46,400 Speaker 1: you could say the central planners intervening in UH in 269 00:15:46,800 --> 00:15:50,120 Speaker 1: the financial markets or maybe the real economy. I think 270 00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:54,400 Speaker 1: you definitely would have seen the recession, if not economic depression, 271 00:15:54,880 --> 00:16:01,040 Speaker 1: lead to a significant fall in UH asset prices, most 272 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:04,600 Speaker 1: notably the stock market. So that's kind of how I 273 00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 1: see it playing out is you know, let's say that 274 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:09,960 Speaker 1: we get a significant recession or maybe a black Swan event. 275 00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:13,640 Speaker 1: That's what this yield curve is predicting. Initially, the markets 276 00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:18,040 Speaker 1: keep going down until the FED does something, and based 277 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:22,600 Speaker 1: on the severity of the downturn, I think the market's 278 00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:24,920 Speaker 1: either gonna look at that and say, Okay, that's adequate, 279 00:16:25,040 --> 00:16:28,280 Speaker 1: We're still going to UH continue to go up because 280 00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:31,160 Speaker 1: of this quote unquote stimulus, or they're gonna look at 281 00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:34,680 Speaker 1: the stimulus and then they're gonna, um, they're going to 282 00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:40,160 Speaker 1: basically reconcile that with the level of risk because of 283 00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:44,400 Speaker 1: the recession, depression, black swan, and they could potentially reject 284 00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:47,160 Speaker 1: it based on the severity there So I think there's 285 00:16:47,240 --> 00:16:51,960 Speaker 1: kind of uh an analysis or people need to think 286 00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:55,960 Speaker 1: through the probabilities of how significant they think this downturn 287 00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:58,480 Speaker 1: is going to be and therefore what the FED or 288 00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:01,920 Speaker 1: central planners response would and if they are constrained at 289 00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:05,679 Speaker 1: all by the current levels of inflation. It seems like 290 00:17:05,760 --> 00:17:09,040 Speaker 1: the markets are calling the Feds bluff on this, right 291 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:13,520 Speaker 1: that J. Pale has been very upfront of saying, you know, 292 00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:15,959 Speaker 1: we're gonna crush demand, We're gonna stick with it, We're 293 00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:18,960 Speaker 1: gonna keep raising rates. Hey wait, you didn't listen to 294 00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:22,960 Speaker 1: me correctly, like we're pain, pain, pain. And yet here 295 00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:25,160 Speaker 1: the markets continue to rally. They're up today a couple 296 00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:27,719 Speaker 1: of points. Um, I'm not exactly sure, but look at 297 00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:30,920 Speaker 1: what the ten Years done, Mark, I mean to your point, dude, Right, 298 00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 1: J pal comes out and is incredibly hawkish, and you know, 299 00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:38,520 Speaker 1: we're gonna crush the markets, We're gonna crush inflation. We're 300 00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:42,440 Speaker 1: gonna raise rates too. You know, I'm the next Paul 301 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 1: Volker blah blah blah blah blah. And the ten Years says, 302 00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:47,320 Speaker 1: oh that's nice. I'm gonna go ahead and go from 303 00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:50,280 Speaker 1: four percent down to three point six percent in the 304 00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:52,240 Speaker 1: matter of like a week. Go ahead and give me 305 00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:54,960 Speaker 1: that more of that hawkish talk. So it's ironic, isn't 306 00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:58,200 Speaker 1: it that the more hawki is the Fed gets trying 307 00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:02,440 Speaker 1: to increase interest rates to decrease demand UH to bring 308 00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:05,879 Speaker 1: inflation down. The lower the interest rates go at the 309 00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:08,360 Speaker 1: long end of the curve, which are the interest rates 310 00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:14,080 Speaker 1: that most impact the overall rates in the general economy. Right, Well, 311 00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:16,879 Speaker 1: it almost seems like the markets are somewhat calling the 312 00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:19,800 Speaker 1: bluff because they're like, look, we know that you're serious, 313 00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:21,919 Speaker 1: and we believe you. And it's kind of me talking, 314 00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:24,760 Speaker 1: but like I believe you you're serious, and you want 315 00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:26,080 Speaker 1: to be the vocal and you want to go that 316 00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:28,000 Speaker 1: and I don't doubt that, and I believe that you 317 00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:31,520 Speaker 1: believe it. But there's also constraints, as you said, like 318 00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:33,879 Speaker 1: when the liquidity drives up in the treasury market, like 319 00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:35,919 Speaker 1: you're gonna have to do something, and so it's like 320 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:38,359 Speaker 1: maybe maybe we see like you're serious, and I believe 321 00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:40,320 Speaker 1: you're serious, but we also see that you're probably going 322 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:42,639 Speaker 1: to run out of room before you want to, and 323 00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:44,720 Speaker 1: you're gonna be forced to act. We've seen the treasury 324 00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:48,000 Speaker 1: markets getting very liquid, acting very irrationally. You were seeing 325 00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:51,520 Speaker 1: nations around the world, like Japan notably dumping treasuries. UH. 326 00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:53,680 Speaker 1: The treasury market is obviously the biggest market, but because 327 00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:55,560 Speaker 1: of all the durations it's not quite as liquid in 328 00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:59,119 Speaker 1: some areas, and so maybe people are like, well, hey, okay, 329 00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:01,960 Speaker 1: like we believe you, like we also know you're probably 330 00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:03,760 Speaker 1: not going to be able to do it, and maybe 331 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:07,639 Speaker 1: that's why it's not selling off well. The So to 332 00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:10,760 Speaker 1: be clear that the tenure treasury there, there's a significant 333 00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:14,040 Speaker 1: bid there. Uh, that's why the interest rates are going down. 334 00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:18,080 Speaker 1: So I I think there is concern, at least I 335 00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:20,800 Speaker 1: would be concerned with the liquidity at the long end 336 00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:24,960 Speaker 1: of the US curve by looking at the TICK data. 337 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:27,960 Speaker 1: So if I'm the Fed, I'm gonna monitor that like 338 00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:32,280 Speaker 1: a hawk or the Treasury, and I'm gonna notice that 339 00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:34,320 Speaker 1: when you look at the TICK data, it is true 340 00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:38,160 Speaker 1: that you do see uh, pretty significant demand coming in, 341 00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:41,440 Speaker 1: but all the demand is from the private sector. So 342 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:44,880 Speaker 1: you see almost zero demand and in fact probably net 343 00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:49,000 Speaker 1: selling from the public sector. And the TICK data breaks 344 00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:52,119 Speaker 1: this down. I wish I could remember the the terms 345 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:54,919 Speaker 1: they use, but it's pretty obvious when you look at 346 00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:57,640 Speaker 1: the report. So what this means is all the central 347 00:19:57,640 --> 00:20:02,000 Speaker 1: banks are our net sellers of treasuries at the long end, 348 00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:06,520 Speaker 1: and the private institutions like the pension funds, the hedge 349 00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:10,200 Speaker 1: funds in Japan as an example, they are net buyers, 350 00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:13,200 Speaker 1: and that's providing a lot of the liquidity you see, 351 00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:16,040 Speaker 1: and then domestically, you're you're not gonna have that much 352 00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:19,840 Speaker 1: liquidity relatively speaking, because obviously you know who's going to 353 00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:22,360 Speaker 1: buy a tenure treasury at three point six percent when 354 00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:25,320 Speaker 1: the inflation rate is running at seven point seven. So 355 00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:28,480 Speaker 1: you have to ask yourself, why are these private investors 356 00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:32,640 Speaker 1: in Japan or Europe buying treasuries? Why why are they 357 00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:36,680 Speaker 1: really kind of creating the demand side of the market. Well, 358 00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:40,119 Speaker 1: it's because the dollar has been going up consistently. So 359 00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:43,680 Speaker 1: if you're a Japanese investor or pension fund, you could 360 00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:46,879 Speaker 1: care less that the U S inflation rate is seven 361 00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:51,639 Speaker 1: point seven because your liabilities or your expenses are not 362 00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:56,720 Speaker 1: denominated in in dollars. They're denominated in yen. So as 363 00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:59,560 Speaker 1: long as the the yen, or excuse me, as long 364 00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:02,960 Speaker 1: as the dollar is going up against the end and 365 00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 1: you and your betting, then it's going to continue in 366 00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:10,040 Speaker 1: that direction. Then why would you not by a tenure 367 00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:13,480 Speaker 1: treasury at three point six percent if the dollar is 368 00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:18,720 Speaker 1: appreciating in value by ten relative to your liabilities? Right? 369 00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:21,159 Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's like a no brainer. So I 370 00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:26,840 Speaker 1: think that the risk there is, well, what happens if 371 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:29,120 Speaker 1: the dollar starts to go down? So like, what happens 372 00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:33,119 Speaker 1: if the fed is starts to become rather devish and 373 00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:36,080 Speaker 1: the dollar goes from wherever it is today, let's say 374 00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:39,200 Speaker 1: one oh six or something. Let's say just just hypothetically 375 00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:43,679 Speaker 1: just go straight down to like and then those public 376 00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:47,680 Speaker 1: or those private investors outside of the United States there 377 00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:49,920 Speaker 1: they go from oh my gosh, the dollar is gonna 378 00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:52,240 Speaker 1: go up forever to oh my gosh, the dollar is 379 00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:56,000 Speaker 1: gonna go down forever relative to the end and then 380 00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:59,119 Speaker 1: they then they become net sellers of treasuries. And I 381 00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:03,000 Speaker 1: think that's where you could get some significant liquidity issues 382 00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:05,480 Speaker 1: at the long end of the curve. Uh, the short 383 00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:07,760 Speaker 1: end of the curve. I'm not worried at all, because 384 00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:11,359 Speaker 1: it's because the supplied demand dynamics are far different there 385 00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:14,840 Speaker 1: because those T builds are used as collateral. I saw 386 00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:17,640 Speaker 1: an article yesterday I was gonna screen crap it cap 387 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:20,440 Speaker 1: it and and the tag Brent on it, uh, Brent 388 00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:22,760 Speaker 1: Johnson on it on Twitter, and it was article I 389 00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:24,440 Speaker 1: think it was. It was on Wall Street Journal saying 390 00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:26,640 Speaker 1: that the dollar trade isn't is dead, like the dollar 391 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:28,520 Speaker 1: trade isn't what it what it was anymore or something 392 00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:34,080 Speaker 1: something that affect Yeah, right right. I saw that on 393 00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:37,560 Speaker 1: The Economist, I think it was they just came out 394 00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:41,560 Speaker 1: with a magazine cover that said crypto is dead or 395 00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:44,479 Speaker 1: something like that, and uh, you know, of course I 396 00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:47,480 Speaker 1: retweeted that and said maybe I should, uh maybe I 397 00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:51,320 Speaker 1: should start looking into crypto. Yeah. So, um, okay, so 398 00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:57,840 Speaker 1: the recession is pretty much guarantee, nothing certain, but um, 399 00:22:57,880 --> 00:22:59,680 Speaker 1: looking at the data, we're on our way there. And 400 00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:02,639 Speaker 1: and and really, I mean the growth of GDP has 401 00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:04,960 Speaker 1: been so slow that I mean we're kind of in 402 00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:08,720 Speaker 1: a recession anyway. Uh not maybe not technically, but then 403 00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:11,159 Speaker 1: I mean, like we said, the first two quarters of 404 00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:13,879 Speaker 1: two we had negative real GDP and that's that's that 405 00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:15,879 Speaker 1: used to be the definition of a recession. And tell 406 00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:18,200 Speaker 1: our friend Joe Biden changed it. Yeah, And the GDP 407 00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:21,080 Speaker 1: is a flawed metric we can look anyway, especially when 408 00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:22,720 Speaker 1: you look at the amount of inflation that we've had 409 00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:25,960 Speaker 1: in the economy. So but then going in so then 410 00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:29,719 Speaker 1: then that doesn't necessarily equate into a market crash, asset 411 00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:33,639 Speaker 1: prices falling. Uh, potentially the FED could do something to 412 00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:36,520 Speaker 1: keep asset prices up, and for some reason, the markets 413 00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:40,639 Speaker 1: don't believe that it's going to be that bad apparently. Yeah, 414 00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:42,760 Speaker 1: So where do you put that on a percentage of 415 00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:46,920 Speaker 1: I mean, are you at a Michael Bury's predicting another 416 00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:50,560 Speaker 1: huge crash? Are you at we're going to have another 417 00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:53,520 Speaker 1: big crash? Or maybe eight or where are you there? 418 00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:57,120 Speaker 1: So basically, are we gonna have a soft landing? Yeah? Um, 419 00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:06,040 Speaker 1: I would say probably we're gonna have a soft landing. 420 00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:09,399 Speaker 1: We're gonna have a hard landing. And so yeah, I 421 00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:11,040 Speaker 1: mean to your point, if we if I was going 422 00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:13,480 Speaker 1: to argue the bowl argument for the stock market, I 423 00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:16,639 Speaker 1: would say, we're going to have a soft landing because 424 00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:19,320 Speaker 1: of X, y Z reasons. So you're gradually, you know, 425 00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:22,080 Speaker 1: all of these interest rate hikes that we've seen in 426 00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:24,920 Speaker 1: the FED, that takes a long time to filter through 427 00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:28,560 Speaker 1: the economy. Our good friend Adam Taggart always use these 428 00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:32,080 Speaker 1: uses the example of the pig through the python. So 429 00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:35,280 Speaker 1: the interest rates that we've had of the last six months, 430 00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:39,359 Speaker 1: those will filter through the economy over the next six months, 431 00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:44,560 Speaker 1: which will gradually bring inflation down from seven point seven 432 00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:48,040 Speaker 1: down to let's say six, down to five, down to four. 433 00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:51,359 Speaker 1: And in this environment where the FED is no longer 434 00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:55,120 Speaker 1: worried about inflation, they can go ahead and stop raising 435 00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:59,160 Speaker 1: interest rates. And once they stop raising interest rates, this 436 00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:04,000 Speaker 1: is going to you bring risk assets to the forefront again. 437 00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:07,920 Speaker 1: And um, you know, things like the stock market are 438 00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:11,280 Speaker 1: going to rip higher and the dollar is going to 439 00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:15,720 Speaker 1: go lower, and um, you know we're gonna all hold 440 00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:19,760 Speaker 1: hands and sing Kumbai yah as the cp I just 441 00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:23,760 Speaker 1: gradually goes down below the FEDS two percent target rate 442 00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:27,720 Speaker 1: from now till the end of eternity. Uh, that's kind 443 00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:33,680 Speaker 1: of the rosy scenario and the unlikeliness of that. Um, 444 00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:35,919 Speaker 1: let's yeah, I think it's pretty unlikely, but if you 445 00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:37,720 Speaker 1: want it because one of the main reasons I do 446 00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:39,480 Speaker 1: think it's unlikely, it's going back to what you're talking 447 00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:41,960 Speaker 1: about with Bury and the bull whip effect. And I 448 00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:43,480 Speaker 1: don't know if you've done a video on that, but 449 00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:46,800 Speaker 1: that's really fascinating. Have you discussed that. I did. I 450 00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:49,000 Speaker 1: did a video on that bull whip, but that was 451 00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:51,879 Speaker 1: months ago. Um. Yeah, So I don't know if you 452 00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:57,000 Speaker 1: saw recently the numbers came out for it. Was target 453 00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:02,040 Speaker 1: and Amazon. I know Amazon said they were. My memory 454 00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:05,679 Speaker 1: serves me they're they're laying off ten thousand people. And 455 00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:08,159 Speaker 1: what I found staggering. Mark. I don't know if you 456 00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:13,000 Speaker 1: saw this, this uh this data, but um, at the 457 00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:15,879 Speaker 1: end of two thousand nineteen just or you know, beginning 458 00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:20,160 Speaker 1: of prior to the pandemic, Amazon had about eight hundred 459 00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:26,440 Speaker 1: thousand employees. Fast forward to today, basically call it two 460 00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:32,240 Speaker 1: years later, Amazon has one point six million. They've literally 461 00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:36,320 Speaker 1: doubled their workforce. They've increased it by one hundred percent. 462 00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:40,240 Speaker 1: Why because we had all the stimmy checks, we had 463 00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:44,439 Speaker 1: all of this these government distortions that gave the market 464 00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:48,080 Speaker 1: a sugar rush, and then all that sugar rush goes 465 00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:52,840 Speaker 1: right into aggregate demand pointed directly at Amazon. So the 466 00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:55,800 Speaker 1: people at Amazon, they don't watch the Mark Moss channel, 467 00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:58,920 Speaker 1: they don't watch the George Gammon channel, so they think 468 00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:03,000 Speaker 1: that this demand is just gonna be there forever, Like, 469 00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:06,480 Speaker 1: oh my gosh, we're selling out of everything. We've got 470 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:08,840 Speaker 1: to grow, We've got to grow to meet all of 471 00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:12,120 Speaker 1: this incredible demand like we've never seen before. So we're 472 00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:15,040 Speaker 1: gonna hire. We're gonna hire high or higher, higher, higher, 473 00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:19,600 Speaker 1: another eight hundred thousand people. And then once they hire 474 00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:23,320 Speaker 1: that that that last person, now all of a sudden 475 00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:26,520 Speaker 1: they start to see sales just completely fall off a 476 00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:31,560 Speaker 1: cliff and they realize that, oh my gosh, holy cow, 477 00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,960 Speaker 1: all of that demand was artificial, that was a result 478 00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:38,280 Speaker 1: of let's just say, stemmy check something that's completely temporary. 479 00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:41,240 Speaker 1: That was just an economic sugar rush. And what do 480 00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:45,720 Speaker 1: they do. They start laying off employees. Well, listen, if 481 00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:50,040 Speaker 1: let's just say demand goes back down to this hypothetically, 482 00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:51,720 Speaker 1: and I know it probably wouldn't, but let's just say 483 00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:54,320 Speaker 1: that it goes back down to the two thousand nineteen 484 00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:58,440 Speaker 1: level where they had eight hundred thousand employees. Well, that 485 00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:01,640 Speaker 1: means they're not gonna cut ten thousand, They're gonna cut 486 00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:05,560 Speaker 1: eight hundred thousand to get back down to that equilibrium point. 487 00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:08,640 Speaker 1: And we see the exact same thing happening with Target. 488 00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:12,800 Speaker 1: I think their last quarter their profit was down by 489 00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:17,400 Speaker 1: some astronomical number, by like and one of the little 490 00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:21,640 Speaker 1: anecdotal pieces of evidence there that I saw in this 491 00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:24,760 Speaker 1: report I think it was on CNBC, is that they 492 00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:30,240 Speaker 1: attributed a four hundred million dollar loss in this quarter 493 00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:35,760 Speaker 1: of March four hundred million dollars two theft. That's theft. 494 00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:39,120 Speaker 1: So we're we're getting to the point right now where 495 00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:43,240 Speaker 1: not only is this aggregate demand from stimmy checks running out, 496 00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:46,040 Speaker 1: but now people are having to put all these things 497 00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:48,880 Speaker 1: on their credit card, they're maxing out their credit card, 498 00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:52,400 Speaker 1: they've gone through their savings, and they're quite literally having 499 00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:56,760 Speaker 1: to resort to stealing the things they need just to 500 00:28:56,800 --> 00:29:00,360 Speaker 1: get by. And so that's why I give an eight 501 00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:04,160 Speaker 1: uh and and that's basically the bull whip effect. That's 502 00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:08,680 Speaker 1: why I'm giving that probability to the hard landing. Yeah, 503 00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:11,280 Speaker 1: most of that theft is probably in California because it's legal, 504 00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:16,760 Speaker 1: so you know, well that definitely doesn't help. Yeah, if 505 00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:18,600 Speaker 1: you make it legal, guess what more people are gonna 506 00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:21,280 Speaker 1: do it? Um Man, there's so many things that I 507 00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:23,720 Speaker 1: always love talking to do, so many things I want 508 00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:26,680 Speaker 1: to talk about here, but I have to so many 509 00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:28,760 Speaker 1: little little rabbit holes can go into. I'm gonna have 510 00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:31,600 Speaker 1: to start chopping some of these off. You know, let's 511 00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:35,160 Speaker 1: let's transition where some of this into maybe some of 512 00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:39,080 Speaker 1: your recent flurry of texts or tweets going on on Twitter. 513 00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:42,560 Speaker 1: Um And, I want to start with the piece that 514 00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:45,080 Speaker 1: you already talked about, which is the fundamentals the economy 515 00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:51,400 Speaker 1: or unsound. Um, all this manipulation has caused massive distortions 516 00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:56,800 Speaker 1: you talked about. Um, Uh, you've you've talked about the 517 00:29:56,840 --> 00:29:59,960 Speaker 1: impact on society, all the malinvestment, all the the story 518 00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:04,000 Speaker 1: since that have happened. Um. You know, we saw Vladimir 519 00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:06,400 Speaker 1: Lenin he said the best way to destroy capitalism is 520 00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:10,040 Speaker 1: uh no, no, I'm talking about Lenin Lennon. Lennon had 521 00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:11,840 Speaker 1: said that the best way to destroy capitalism is to 522 00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:15,400 Speaker 1: debouch the currency through inflation, arbitrary stealing. And then at 523 00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:17,880 Speaker 1: the end he said the best way in that after 524 00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:21,160 Speaker 1: after all relationship of money is destroyed, the best way 525 00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:24,080 Speaker 1: to get rich would be through gambling and theft. And 526 00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:28,840 Speaker 1: so that's that's that's where we're at, right. Um. So like, uh, 527 00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:32,200 Speaker 1: we can see the obesity rate, we can see the 528 00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:35,760 Speaker 1: incarceration rate. I mean, we could sit here all day 529 00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:38,760 Speaker 1: and name all the problems that we see in society. Yeah, 530 00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:40,719 Speaker 1: asked target for you know the amount they had been 531 00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:44,560 Speaker 1: just in theft, right, and so, uh, the impact on society, 532 00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:48,360 Speaker 1: the malinvestment, the distortions, but really the impact on society 533 00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:50,720 Speaker 1: heart disease the number one killer in America. I mean, 534 00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:52,719 Speaker 1: it's just our food. Our food is killing us right 535 00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:55,920 Speaker 1: this safety and called it fiet money, fiet food. And 536 00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:58,520 Speaker 1: so because our our money is losing purchasing power, soul 537 00:30:58,520 --> 00:31:01,640 Speaker 1: fast food manufacturers have to start stitudent cheaper products and 538 00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:03,720 Speaker 1: then our food gets worse and then all these things. 539 00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:08,400 Speaker 1: So is it worth it? Uh? The you gave me 540 00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:10,120 Speaker 1: some credit on Twitter because I'm able to see the 541 00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:13,040 Speaker 1: cost benefit analysis, something that you talk about all the time. 542 00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:18,280 Speaker 1: So the cost benefit analysis. Um, we have massive distortions, 543 00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:21,440 Speaker 1: massive oult investments, and society is literally broken down to 544 00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:23,520 Speaker 1: the point Target has to write off billions of dollars 545 00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:27,440 Speaker 1: on theft. We have you know, f t X, which 546 00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:30,479 Speaker 1: is probably one of the biggest fraud scams that I 547 00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:32,320 Speaker 1: believe that we can get into the whole conversation, but 548 00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:34,719 Speaker 1: I believe it's it has deep ties into the government, 549 00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:39,200 Speaker 1: both domestically and internationally. Um. And these are the distortions 550 00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:42,440 Speaker 1: that we see the problem there is that I don't 551 00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:51,000 Speaker 1: know that most people understand the benefits of a elastictic 552 00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:55,280 Speaker 1: elastic money supply to begin with, because in order to 553 00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:58,800 Speaker 1: do so, you've got to really really understand the global 554 00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:02,800 Speaker 1: monetary system. And you know how many people fit into 555 00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:06,160 Speaker 1: that category, I would argue very few. One thing I'd 556 00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:09,000 Speaker 1: encourage your viewers to do if they want to kind 557 00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:12,440 Speaker 1: of explore this further is look at a chart of 558 00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:16,200 Speaker 1: global GDP growth. And I actually pulled this one up 559 00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:18,840 Speaker 1: on an interview I just did. Actually let me. I know, 560 00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:20,440 Speaker 1: you probably can't do a screen shore, but I can 561 00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:24,480 Speaker 1: give them the u r L. It's our world in 562 00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:30,760 Speaker 1: data dot org forward Slash Economic Dash growth and really 563 00:32:30,840 --> 00:32:35,600 Speaker 1: some interesting charts. One of them is GDP per capita 564 00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:39,000 Speaker 1: night excuse me, it's actually eighteen twenty. I've got it 565 00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:43,200 Speaker 1: to nineteen ten, but eighteen twenty to two thousand eighteen. 566 00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:46,200 Speaker 1: And this is actually adjusted for the rate of inflation 567 00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:51,400 Speaker 1: and the cost of living between countries, and uh, what 568 00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:56,200 Speaker 1: you'll notice and it breaks things down by like country category. 569 00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:59,440 Speaker 1: But we're we're kind of going along steadily here and 570 00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:03,760 Speaker 1: seeing gradual growth. And you know, the early nineteen hundreds, 571 00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:05,960 Speaker 1: in nineteen twenty, and of course we had a little 572 00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:08,600 Speaker 1: bit of a flat line dip or so, uh in 573 00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:10,440 Speaker 1: the nineteen thirties, but then it starts to go out. 574 00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:14,520 Speaker 1: But then you see what happened in the nineteen fifties 575 00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:21,360 Speaker 1: and that that growth went parabolic, absolutely parabolic. And I 576 00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:24,480 Speaker 1: know that there's a you know, a compounding effect to 577 00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:27,520 Speaker 1: a certain degree, but I don't think that explains just 578 00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:32,480 Speaker 1: how how this just skyrocketed, right, and this is and 579 00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:35,000 Speaker 1: then it goes to other charts. I'm sure you've used 580 00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:40,280 Speaker 1: mark on the population growth and also the use of energy. 581 00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:45,120 Speaker 1: And I think that it's interesting this coincides with the 582 00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:50,360 Speaker 1: not only creation but the expansion of the euro dollar market, 583 00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:54,560 Speaker 1: which is a market that was had no currency and 584 00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:58,560 Speaker 1: had no reserves. It was you want to talk about Fiat, 585 00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:01,800 Speaker 1: that's like Fiat on steroids, right, So, and I'm not 586 00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:05,400 Speaker 1: saying that's optimal. I'm not saying that's optimal. And again 587 00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:08,879 Speaker 1: I totally get their costs and benefits. And I think 588 00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:12,239 Speaker 1: my main point here to your your community and and 589 00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:16,120 Speaker 1: and my community is regardless of the conclusions you draw, 590 00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:20,880 Speaker 1: just realize there are no certainties. There are no certainties. 591 00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:22,880 Speaker 1: And that's the biggest problem I have with the bitcoin 592 00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:26,040 Speaker 1: space a lot of them is they speak in terms 593 00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:28,759 Speaker 1: of certainties. But same thing the gold bugs, you know, 594 00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:31,520 Speaker 1: I just think to a little lesser degree, but going 595 00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:34,359 Speaker 1: back to this chart. You know, you see that parabolic 596 00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:39,319 Speaker 1: growth and that coincides directly with the expansion of the 597 00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:44,480 Speaker 1: euro dollar system or this this very very uh elastic 598 00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:47,880 Speaker 1: money supply. And it is true, let's go to a 599 00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:52,160 Speaker 1: cost that this Euro dollar system went bananas in the 600 00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:56,200 Speaker 1: nineties and especially in the early two thousands, which many 601 00:34:56,239 --> 00:35:00,960 Speaker 1: would argue resulted in the GFC, and then that resulted 602 00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:02,879 Speaker 1: in a lot of bad things like QWI. And so 603 00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:07,080 Speaker 1: these are the costs. But when you look at that 604 00:35:07,080 --> 00:35:09,520 Speaker 1: that g d P number, let's just say for the 605 00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:11,759 Speaker 1: western offshoots, and now I'm looking at this chart, so 606 00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:16,320 Speaker 1: you'll have to forgive me here, do you, Okay? So nineteen, 607 00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:20,239 Speaker 1: let's say fifty the blue line, we're looking at what 608 00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:23,920 Speaker 1: fifteen thousand roughly in UH g d P per capita, 609 00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:30,719 Speaker 1: and in two thou eighteen, now we're at fifty five thousand, 610 00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:36,839 Speaker 1: let's call it. And so that's the benefit. Now, if 611 00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:41,040 Speaker 1: you say the cost was the g f C, was 612 00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:43,960 Speaker 1: it worth it? And I'm not saying that or or 613 00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:46,759 Speaker 1: the or the cost is heart disease being the number 614 00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:50,880 Speaker 1: one killer, uh being having having a high end uh 615 00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:53,240 Speaker 1: you know, having a high fatherless rate in the homes 616 00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:56,480 Speaker 1: and high in cars are racing rate and although aion 617 00:35:56,520 --> 00:36:01,040 Speaker 1: and theft happening, and passports locking people down and see. 618 00:36:01,120 --> 00:36:03,120 Speaker 1: But this is where it gets into a very interesting 619 00:36:03,160 --> 00:36:06,719 Speaker 1: conversation about nuance because I would argue that if the 620 00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:11,319 Speaker 1: per capita g d P was at thirty thousand right 621 00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:15,120 Speaker 1: now instead of fifteen, that the although you're right with 622 00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:19,799 Speaker 1: there's a massive obesity epidemic and whatnot, but I would 623 00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:25,280 Speaker 1: argue the the average lifespan would be probably a decade 624 00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:29,080 Speaker 1: less than it even is today with all the obesity. 625 00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:32,279 Speaker 1: So you know, again, I'm not saying there's a right 626 00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:35,880 Speaker 1: or wrong here. What I am saying is this is 627 00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:40,480 Speaker 1: definitely open to debate. And that's why I get. I 628 00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:43,680 Speaker 1: get so it gets under my skin so much when 629 00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:48,160 Speaker 1: I hear people talk in terms of certainties. So um, 630 00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:49,800 Speaker 1: there's so many rabbit holes. I would have loved to 631 00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:51,479 Speaker 1: jump down there with you, but we're kind of running 632 00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:54,000 Speaker 1: out of time here. Um. The last thing I want 633 00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:56,520 Speaker 1: to jump to and kind of still pulling on this thread. 634 00:36:57,000 --> 00:36:59,240 Speaker 1: Uh you put out a video on your Rebel Capitalist channel, 635 00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:02,400 Speaker 1: uh um, talking about you showed some of the on 636 00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:05,239 Speaker 1: chain data for a bitcoin. So bitcoin is unlike other 637 00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:07,479 Speaker 1: financial assets, where we have all this on chain data 638 00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:09,840 Speaker 1: and we can see the coins on the network, so 639 00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:11,759 Speaker 1: we can verify how many there are, and we can 640 00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:13,720 Speaker 1: see when they're moved. We can see what the last 641 00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:15,360 Speaker 1: price was when it moved. And you were kind of 642 00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:19,279 Speaker 1: making this video saying you can see, you know, the 643 00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:22,399 Speaker 1: coins haven't moved in over six months or over you Yeah, right, 644 00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:24,160 Speaker 1: that was actually a video I did where I was 645 00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:28,080 Speaker 1: talking about maybe being bullish, So I want to talk 646 00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:31,720 Speaker 1: about that for a minute. So, unlike any other financial asset, 647 00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:35,799 Speaker 1: bitcoin has transparency. The Bitcoin network is not private, it's 648 00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:38,359 Speaker 1: it's open, but it's anonymous, so you don't know who 649 00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:41,240 Speaker 1: owns these different wallets. And so when you it allows 650 00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:43,359 Speaker 1: you to look at this data that has just never 651 00:37:43,400 --> 00:37:45,799 Speaker 1: been seen before and allows you start drawing some conclusions. 652 00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:48,719 Speaker 1: And so for the viewers, what George was looking at 653 00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:51,319 Speaker 1: some on chain data, the shows um the last time 654 00:37:51,320 --> 00:37:53,160 Speaker 1: coins were moved, and you can see what the price 655 00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:55,680 Speaker 1: point was on those coins the last time they were moved, 656 00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:58,040 Speaker 1: or you can see how long it's been since they've 657 00:37:58,120 --> 00:38:00,759 Speaker 1: they've moved, and so well we can see there's like 658 00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:03,120 Speaker 1: an m v r V which is the market value 659 00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:05,319 Speaker 1: realized values, so we can see what the valuation of 660 00:38:05,320 --> 00:38:07,600 Speaker 1: those coins were the last time they're moved or the 661 00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:09,880 Speaker 1: point you were a chart you were looking at, George, 662 00:38:09,920 --> 00:38:12,600 Speaker 1: was how long it's been, I believe since they moved, 663 00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:14,799 Speaker 1: And so you were saying, like, se coins haven't moved 664 00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:18,560 Speaker 1: in over six months, and so maybe I think the 665 00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:21,399 Speaker 1: conclusion you were drawing is that maybe we haven't seen 666 00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:24,520 Speaker 1: the capitulation in the market yet because a lot of 667 00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:27,280 Speaker 1: people are still hanging on. Yeah, but we're probably getting 668 00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:32,600 Speaker 1: close because when you looked at past uh bottoms in 669 00:38:32,719 --> 00:38:36,400 Speaker 1: the price of bitcoin, it was always when there was 670 00:38:36,680 --> 00:38:40,839 Speaker 1: a very few transactions over the last month. And I'm 671 00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:42,480 Speaker 1: not looking at the chart, but I'm just doing this 672 00:38:42,560 --> 00:38:45,600 Speaker 1: kind of off of memory here. So so my so 673 00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:48,400 Speaker 1: my conclusion was just maybe and I was just thinking 674 00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:50,480 Speaker 1: this through live you know, doing that video, but I 675 00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:55,120 Speaker 1: thought maybe, just maybe, um, the capitulation would be when 676 00:38:55,480 --> 00:39:00,960 Speaker 1: we see uh this decrease or the increase in the 677 00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:05,680 Speaker 1: amount of transactions while we see a decrease in price, 678 00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:09,400 Speaker 1: because I think that's something that we hadn't seen before, 679 00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:13,520 Speaker 1: and that would lead me to believe that all the 680 00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:16,800 Speaker 1: people that are still let's say hodling for lack of 681 00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:20,080 Speaker 1: a better word, but yet still are kind of maybe 682 00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:23,360 Speaker 1: on the fence, and they might not sell at bitcoin 683 00:39:23,440 --> 00:39:26,120 Speaker 1: at fifteen, but they you know, once it gets down 684 00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:30,160 Speaker 1: to twelve, let's say they're they're they're out, they're done, right, Uh, 685 00:39:30,400 --> 00:39:33,520 Speaker 1: that would lead me to believe that maybe we've hit 686 00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:36,799 Speaker 1: that moment. And the reason why capitulation is so important, 687 00:39:37,040 --> 00:39:40,560 Speaker 1: not only bitcoin, but commodities or or any type of asset, 688 00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:44,279 Speaker 1: is because that tells you that and even if there's 689 00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:47,160 Speaker 1: a lot of bad news, even if there's terrible fundamentals, 690 00:39:47,239 --> 00:39:51,279 Speaker 1: let's just say, uh that all the people that have 691 00:39:51,320 --> 00:39:54,880 Speaker 1: sold are done, are all the people that will sell 692 00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:58,439 Speaker 1: have sold, And therefore even if you just get one 693 00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:04,600 Speaker 1: marginal buyer, that will dramatically increase the price. So that's 694 00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:07,080 Speaker 1: really kind of what what you're trying to or at 695 00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:09,640 Speaker 1: least I was trying to look for and get some 696 00:40:09,719 --> 00:40:12,359 Speaker 1: clues to in that chart, you know, And if we're 697 00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:16,239 Speaker 1: just talking strictly about the price of bitcoin, another thing 698 00:40:16,280 --> 00:40:19,560 Speaker 1: that I think is interesting is the fact that we've 699 00:40:19,600 --> 00:40:23,560 Speaker 1: had so much bad news in the crypto space and 700 00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:26,760 Speaker 1: we're still at you know, I think we're maybe twenty 701 00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:29,719 Speaker 1: but it's only down to like sixteen or something like that. 702 00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:34,239 Speaker 1: I think that's showing some incredible resilience. But I just 703 00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:38,120 Speaker 1: especially when you combine um, you know what I'm seeing 704 00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:41,680 Speaker 1: on Twitter and uh in other places, I just don't 705 00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:46,320 Speaker 1: think we're at that capitulation moment yet because in human psychology, 706 00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:51,680 Speaker 1: that's when uh, nobody on social media, you know, wants 707 00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:54,919 Speaker 1: to touch bitcoin. They've they've sworn it off. Everyone knows 708 00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:57,040 Speaker 1: this is going to zero. But that's the part, that's 709 00:40:57,080 --> 00:40:58,799 Speaker 1: the part I want to dig into. That's the part 710 00:40:58,840 --> 00:41:02,680 Speaker 1: I want to dig into. So, um, what I what 711 00:41:02,719 --> 00:41:05,319 Speaker 1: I was gonna say. So, you've no doubt only you've 712 00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:08,160 Speaker 1: seen the you know, Bell curve, the innovation of the 713 00:41:08,200 --> 00:41:10,879 Speaker 1: diffusion of innovation, right, so the way new innovations reach 714 00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:13,240 Speaker 1: the market. And so in the beginning you have the 715 00:41:13,239 --> 00:41:16,520 Speaker 1: the innovators, the creators, and then the second stage is 716 00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:20,040 Speaker 1: what's called the true believers. And then there's a chasm 717 00:41:20,080 --> 00:41:23,920 Speaker 1: before the early majority and then the late majority. Right, 718 00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:27,360 Speaker 1: so you've seen that chart. Yeah, yeah, but then you 719 00:41:27,440 --> 00:41:30,480 Speaker 1: get to a peak and then you get denial. Well, 720 00:41:30,560 --> 00:41:33,080 Speaker 1: Well that's that's the Wall Street that's the Wall Street traders. 721 00:41:33,120 --> 00:41:36,640 Speaker 1: Psychology which I'm talking about just the diffusion of innovation. 722 00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:39,840 Speaker 1: So it's like in the beginning, you just have the creators, 723 00:41:39,840 --> 00:41:41,440 Speaker 1: the innovators are the only ones there, and then you 724 00:41:41,440 --> 00:41:43,440 Speaker 1: have the true believers that come and adopt this technology 725 00:41:43,440 --> 00:41:45,560 Speaker 1: even though it's clunky and hard to use. The true believers, 726 00:41:45,800 --> 00:41:48,760 Speaker 1: then there's the chasm, and the chasm has to get cross, 727 00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:51,160 Speaker 1: something has to happen in the psychology before the early 728 00:41:51,280 --> 00:41:54,560 Speaker 1: majority can come, and then eventually the late majority just comes. 729 00:41:54,640 --> 00:41:56,880 Speaker 1: So kind of like the internet, right, it was a 730 00:41:56,880 --> 00:41:59,279 Speaker 1: pain has to use the Internet. It was a pain 731 00:41:59,320 --> 00:42:01,560 Speaker 1: they has to use in net but eventually got easy 732 00:42:01,640 --> 00:42:03,680 Speaker 1: enough and then the majority now now grandparents are using 733 00:42:03,680 --> 00:42:05,719 Speaker 1: the internet. Kind of a thing, right, And so the 734 00:42:05,760 --> 00:42:07,640 Speaker 1: part of that, if we look at that chart, and 735 00:42:07,880 --> 00:42:09,839 Speaker 1: if you look at that chart again we're not sharing 736 00:42:09,880 --> 00:42:13,480 Speaker 1: screens here, but um, it's broken down typically by percentages 737 00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:17,200 Speaker 1: of adoption, and so typically you get to the true 738 00:42:17,200 --> 00:42:19,600 Speaker 1: believers and the chasm is somewhere around about an eight 739 00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:24,440 Speaker 1: adoption rate. And so I think, uh, I think what 740 00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:26,320 Speaker 1: you're seeing in the bigcoin community. First of all, Twitter 741 00:42:26,400 --> 00:42:30,359 Speaker 1: is a very small small sample of of everybody. I think, 742 00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:33,160 Speaker 1: you know, it's it's very very very small sample and 743 00:42:33,160 --> 00:42:34,799 Speaker 1: and small people can be very noisy there, so it's 744 00:42:34,840 --> 00:42:37,480 Speaker 1: very small sample. But um, I think what happens is 745 00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:39,839 Speaker 1: in any any new innovation, doesn't matter what it is, 746 00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:41,600 Speaker 1: you have the the innovators, and then you have the 747 00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:44,120 Speaker 1: true believers. And so these are the people. These are 748 00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:46,640 Speaker 1: people are here for the revolution. And revolutionaries are ready 749 00:42:46,640 --> 00:42:49,520 Speaker 1: to go die, right, They're they're they're not right in 750 00:42:49,560 --> 00:42:52,960 Speaker 1: their mind right, So any any revolutionary moment in history, 751 00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:56,000 Speaker 1: these people are willing to go sacrifice everything they have 752 00:42:56,200 --> 00:42:59,359 Speaker 1: for this cause that they're rallying on. And they're not 753 00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:02,440 Speaker 1: probably national characters like why would I go kill myself 754 00:43:02,480 --> 00:43:05,040 Speaker 1: and lose everything I own for this cause that probably 755 00:43:05,040 --> 00:43:07,760 Speaker 1: I'll never even see. And so you have these revolutionaries 756 00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:09,920 Speaker 1: that are in this cause. And back to this diffusion 757 00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:12,600 Speaker 1: of innovation, you have these true believers. I believe in 758 00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:14,400 Speaker 1: this and I'm willing to give everything for it. And 759 00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:16,239 Speaker 1: you see people on Twitter say like, look, I'm here 760 00:43:16,280 --> 00:43:18,080 Speaker 1: for the revolution. I'll lose it all. I don't care, 761 00:43:18,200 --> 00:43:20,120 Speaker 1: like this is what I'm here for. And so I 762 00:43:20,160 --> 00:43:24,080 Speaker 1: think if you understand like how revolutions start, and then 763 00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:26,759 Speaker 1: you understand the diffusion of innovation, which is true believers, 764 00:43:27,280 --> 00:43:29,359 Speaker 1: then it starts to go okay, well we only have 765 00:43:29,440 --> 00:43:33,520 Speaker 1: about eighteen adoption, so everybody in is now in this 766 00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:38,319 Speaker 1: hotally phase. Um, the market has shaken out all these people. 767 00:43:38,360 --> 00:43:39,440 Speaker 1: So when I think, when you look at that on 768 00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:42,440 Speaker 1: chained data, you've got to keep that into consideration. And 769 00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:45,120 Speaker 1: I would say when you look at really, I think 770 00:43:45,160 --> 00:43:47,040 Speaker 1: in May of this year when you had the terror 771 00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:49,600 Speaker 1: Luna and then the Celsius and the block five, and 772 00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:52,600 Speaker 1: then the big capitulation came from the publicly traded bitcoin 773 00:43:52,640 --> 00:43:56,080 Speaker 1: miners who were forced to dump all they had. And 774 00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:58,000 Speaker 1: the point that I think you're making, and I agree, 775 00:43:58,320 --> 00:44:01,879 Speaker 1: economics can be very simple. Markets stopped going down when 776 00:44:01,880 --> 00:44:06,040 Speaker 1: there's no more sellers, very simple. And so if we've 777 00:44:06,080 --> 00:44:07,919 Speaker 1: gotten rid of all those big sellers, the public trade 778 00:44:07,960 --> 00:44:10,080 Speaker 1: bitcoin miners had to get rid of everything. All the 779 00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:12,200 Speaker 1: big blow upes have happened. FTX blew up, but they 780 00:44:12,200 --> 00:44:15,680 Speaker 1: didn't have any bitcoin on their books. Um, and now 781 00:44:15,719 --> 00:44:19,279 Speaker 1: we're down to these true believers that are just left. Uh, 782 00:44:19,320 --> 00:44:22,480 Speaker 1: they haven't moved their coins. They're not going to. I 783 00:44:22,520 --> 00:44:24,920 Speaker 1: know you reference Michael Sailor. I had dinner with him 784 00:44:25,080 --> 00:44:28,520 Speaker 1: two weeks ago, UM and him and a CFO of 785 00:44:28,560 --> 00:44:31,120 Speaker 1: micro Strategy, and they wanted to break down the numbers 786 00:44:31,120 --> 00:44:33,920 Speaker 1: and they want people to know about this. Um their 787 00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:37,480 Speaker 1: their liquidation level on one trunch is at thirty five 788 00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:41,200 Speaker 1: hundred dollars. So he's like, they would have to pin 789 00:44:41,280 --> 00:44:44,000 Speaker 1: bitcoin at two thousand dollars to even get us out 790 00:44:44,000 --> 00:44:46,560 Speaker 1: of that position. But we can post more collateral. Was like, 791 00:44:46,560 --> 00:44:49,239 Speaker 1: we're not selling like that, ain't happening like not. But 792 00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:50,840 Speaker 1: that doesn't mean that the people that took out a 793 00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:53,080 Speaker 1: mortgage or maxed out their credit card when bitcoin was 794 00:44:53,080 --> 00:44:55,840 Speaker 1: at sixty five aren't bankrupt right now. It certainly doesn't. 795 00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:59,120 Speaker 1: It certainly doesn't. That's my pushback for Sailor. And you know, 796 00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:03,200 Speaker 1: you know, I'm incredibly respectful and most of the people 797 00:45:03,200 --> 00:45:05,440 Speaker 1: in the space, even if I disagree with them, I 798 00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:09,000 Speaker 1: would consider them friends. But that's that's where I draw 799 00:45:09,040 --> 00:45:13,520 Speaker 1: the line. I just when people talk in terms of 800 00:45:13,560 --> 00:45:17,880 Speaker 1: certainties that this is an absolutely guaranteed that bitcoin is 801 00:45:17,880 --> 00:45:20,719 Speaker 1: going to a million dollars. So max out your credit card, 802 00:45:20,800 --> 00:45:23,800 Speaker 1: mortgage your house, if you've got a business, go ahead 803 00:45:23,760 --> 00:45:26,920 Speaker 1: and and mortgage it to to just buy more and 804 00:45:27,000 --> 00:45:29,880 Speaker 1: more bitcoin and when you've done that, just force your 805 00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:34,239 Speaker 1: grandmother to buy it, and that that's completely unethical. And 806 00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:37,520 Speaker 1: I do not agree with that, not just in bitcoin. 807 00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:41,880 Speaker 1: I don't agree with that with commodities, gold, um, you 808 00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:44,800 Speaker 1: name it. That, that's just um. I don't like to 809 00:45:44,840 --> 00:45:48,520 Speaker 1: go down that path. I would agree, I agree wholeheartedly. Uh, 810 00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:50,279 Speaker 1: no one should ever do that. No one should ever 811 00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:51,719 Speaker 1: risk more th they're willing to lose, and no one 812 00:45:51,719 --> 00:45:54,600 Speaker 1: should ever take on credit to go invest it. I mean, 813 00:45:54,640 --> 00:45:56,839 Speaker 1: maybe invest into a business that you're trying to start. 814 00:45:56,880 --> 00:45:58,440 Speaker 1: But for the most part, I would agree with you 815 00:45:58,480 --> 00:46:01,480 Speaker 1: on that. And uh, for the record, I never And 816 00:46:01,520 --> 00:46:04,239 Speaker 1: that's what really differentiates you. And that's where I've got 817 00:46:04,239 --> 00:46:08,280 Speaker 1: to give you so much credit because you're a bitcoiner, 818 00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:12,040 Speaker 1: but you're not part of the bitcoin cult. And uh, 819 00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:15,600 Speaker 1: how I would define that or how you know the 820 00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:19,879 Speaker 1: difference is, like we've been saying, if someone's talking in certainties, 821 00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:22,680 Speaker 1: I that's the first step to being part of that, 822 00:46:22,680 --> 00:46:25,839 Speaker 1: that bitcoin cult, and you don't do that. And then 823 00:46:25,840 --> 00:46:29,400 Speaker 1: the second step would be if if you notice anything 824 00:46:29,719 --> 00:46:33,200 Speaker 1: that comes up is always going to be good for bitcoin, 825 00:46:33,600 --> 00:46:36,120 Speaker 1: that's the second thing. The second way that you tell 826 00:46:36,400 --> 00:46:39,000 Speaker 1: that we're that you or someone is in the bitcoin 827 00:46:39,040 --> 00:46:41,799 Speaker 1: cult as you say, well, what happens if interest rates 828 00:46:41,800 --> 00:46:43,760 Speaker 1: go up? Oh well, that's gonna be great for bitcoin. 829 00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:45,839 Speaker 1: What happens if interest rates go down? Oh well, that's 830 00:46:45,840 --> 00:46:48,600 Speaker 1: gonna be great for bitcoin, you know. Yeah, And then 831 00:46:48,640 --> 00:46:51,239 Speaker 1: that that you know the people I'm talking about, Mark, 832 00:46:51,280 --> 00:46:53,359 Speaker 1: and you're not one of them, and so hats off 833 00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:56,319 Speaker 1: to you for that. And then thirdly, uh, is that 834 00:46:56,400 --> 00:47:00,359 Speaker 1: if you bring up some sort of talking point uh 835 00:47:00,360 --> 00:47:04,040 Speaker 1: that is contrary to their belief system, do they get emotional? Yeah? 836 00:47:04,280 --> 00:47:07,120 Speaker 1: And uh, and and you don't do that. You always 837 00:47:07,120 --> 00:47:10,920 Speaker 1: have civilized conversations, both you and uh, you know many 838 00:47:11,040 --> 00:47:13,680 Speaker 1: of the other people in the bitcoin space. So you know, 839 00:47:13,760 --> 00:47:17,760 Speaker 1: to your earlier point, I, if I'm guilty of anything, 840 00:47:17,920 --> 00:47:21,920 Speaker 1: it's it's by being too broad and being too general 841 00:47:22,320 --> 00:47:25,560 Speaker 1: with the overall community. But I just think that there's 842 00:47:25,640 --> 00:47:28,680 Speaker 1: just I get so frustrated with a couple of those 843 00:47:28,680 --> 00:47:31,040 Speaker 1: people that I would put into that camp that I 844 00:47:31,120 --> 00:47:34,279 Speaker 1: allow myself, um, I guess ironically to maybe get a 845 00:47:34,320 --> 00:47:37,359 Speaker 1: little too emotional. Yeah. Well, anyway, so like I said, 846 00:47:37,400 --> 00:47:40,920 Speaker 1: I think you have any any new innovation, any new technology, 847 00:47:40,960 --> 00:47:43,160 Speaker 1: you have this these true believers that come in first, 848 00:47:43,200 --> 00:47:45,080 Speaker 1: and they're the ones that kind of pushed that new innovation, 849 00:47:45,440 --> 00:47:47,840 Speaker 1: and so they are the revolutionaries, and they are irrational 850 00:47:47,840 --> 00:47:50,600 Speaker 1: and they are ready to sacrifice their lives for that movement. 851 00:47:50,840 --> 00:47:52,840 Speaker 1: And so I think you have that. UM. So I 852 00:47:52,840 --> 00:47:55,200 Speaker 1: think you just take that into consideration. UM. And I 853 00:47:55,239 --> 00:47:58,040 Speaker 1: agree it it does get over now, I totally agree, Mark, 854 00:47:58,160 --> 00:48:01,239 Speaker 1: I just I totally agree. I just think that the 855 00:48:02,719 --> 00:48:06,640 Speaker 1: indicator that we're at that point where the only people 856 00:48:06,760 --> 00:48:11,960 Speaker 1: left are just the true revolutionaries is when you see 857 00:48:12,320 --> 00:48:20,720 Speaker 1: them the hysteria uh die down to almost zero on 858 00:48:20,920 --> 00:48:23,560 Speaker 1: social media, that that'll be one of the ways. And 859 00:48:23,800 --> 00:48:26,839 Speaker 1: I now, granted we're nowhere near where we were when 860 00:48:26,880 --> 00:48:29,279 Speaker 1: it was sixty or sixty five something like that, but 861 00:48:29,440 --> 00:48:31,759 Speaker 1: when you start seeing the cover of the Economy, and 862 00:48:31,760 --> 00:48:34,400 Speaker 1: I know this isn't pertaining to bitcoin specifically, but when 863 00:48:34,440 --> 00:48:37,840 Speaker 1: you see the cover of Economist saying that crypto is 864 00:48:37,880 --> 00:48:42,479 Speaker 1: dead or whatever, this is a great sign. And um. 865 00:48:42,600 --> 00:48:45,960 Speaker 1: So you know, and I know that you're differentiating between 866 00:48:46,080 --> 00:48:49,480 Speaker 1: value and price, and right now I'm more talking and 867 00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:53,520 Speaker 1: focusing on price. Um. But I just want to throw 868 00:48:53,520 --> 00:48:56,040 Speaker 1: that out there food for thought. And and that's why 869 00:48:56,280 --> 00:48:58,680 Speaker 1: I totally get what you're saying, but I do think 870 00:48:58,880 --> 00:49:01,520 Speaker 1: we still have a little ways to go until we 871 00:49:01,520 --> 00:49:04,000 Speaker 1: get to that point where the only people hanging on 872 00:49:04,280 --> 00:49:09,640 Speaker 1: are the true revolutionary. Yeah. Uh. The ECB put out 873 00:49:09,640 --> 00:49:14,080 Speaker 1: a piece today saying bitcoins on its last stand e 874 00:49:14,200 --> 00:49:18,200 Speaker 1: c B great put that out. That was the that's 875 00:49:18,239 --> 00:49:21,920 Speaker 1: the title of their of their paper. Yeah. I think 876 00:49:21,960 --> 00:49:25,960 Speaker 1: the more we see, the more of an indication, uh 877 00:49:26,000 --> 00:49:27,920 Speaker 1: that is that we were getting closer and closer to 878 00:49:27,960 --> 00:49:31,600 Speaker 1: a bottom. All right, we've gone, We've gone super long. 879 00:49:32,400 --> 00:49:35,560 Speaker 1: I hadn't originally planned on having that conversation, but you know, 880 00:49:35,640 --> 00:49:37,200 Speaker 1: with all the stuff that gone on social media, I 881 00:49:37,200 --> 00:49:39,239 Speaker 1: thought we talked about it. Well, you know, just on 882 00:49:39,360 --> 00:49:42,200 Speaker 1: a final note here, just to put everything I have 883 00:49:42,280 --> 00:49:46,359 Speaker 1: said throughout this entire video in proper context, I did 884 00:49:46,360 --> 00:49:50,080 Speaker 1: have someone that was really really trolling me last night, 885 00:49:50,640 --> 00:49:54,600 Speaker 1: and they were asking me for my resume because they 886 00:49:54,640 --> 00:49:59,200 Speaker 1: were implying that I was completely unqualified to have any 887 00:49:59,280 --> 00:50:03,320 Speaker 1: view on uh, you know, not just bitcoin, but gold 888 00:50:03,440 --> 00:50:07,200 Speaker 1: or macroeconomics in general. Right, and so I think you 889 00:50:07,280 --> 00:50:08,960 Speaker 1: might get a kick out of this. Let me read 890 00:50:09,000 --> 00:50:14,960 Speaker 1: the My response to this, Uh, gentleman was, uh, let 891 00:50:14,960 --> 00:50:16,960 Speaker 1: me see, and I'm you know, this is for your 892 00:50:16,960 --> 00:50:20,000 Speaker 1: audience too. Maybe your audience really uh, they may know 893 00:50:20,120 --> 00:50:23,719 Speaker 1: me from bitcoin, but they really don't know my backstory, 894 00:50:23,800 --> 00:50:28,239 Speaker 1: and they don't know all of my qualifications for being 895 00:50:28,480 --> 00:50:31,520 Speaker 1: a a a uh you know, a quote unquote guru 896 00:50:31,800 --> 00:50:34,520 Speaker 1: right on social media. So here you go. If you 897 00:50:34,600 --> 00:50:38,440 Speaker 1: doubted my qualifications, here they are my cv is as follows. 898 00:50:39,080 --> 00:50:41,879 Speaker 1: Almost flunked out of high school, had a point five 899 00:50:42,000 --> 00:50:45,399 Speaker 1: g p A my senior year. That's all d's and f's, 900 00:50:46,200 --> 00:50:49,319 Speaker 1: was voted most likely to go to jail, never have 901 00:50:49,480 --> 00:50:53,680 Speaker 1: taken a business, finance or economics class in my life, 902 00:50:54,239 --> 00:50:57,960 Speaker 1: and haven't had a job in twenty years. And then 903 00:50:58,040 --> 00:51:02,200 Speaker 1: I go on to say, and you dare imply I 904 00:51:02,239 --> 00:51:08,919 Speaker 1: am somehow unqualified, So guys, I am. Most subscribers, take 905 00:51:09,040 --> 00:51:11,600 Speaker 1: everything I say with a grain of salt. I am 906 00:51:11,760 --> 00:51:16,799 Speaker 1: wildly unqualified. I love it. I love it. I love it. 907 00:51:16,840 --> 00:51:20,319 Speaker 1: That's great, all right, man, it's been great. It's been 908 00:51:20,320 --> 00:51:22,920 Speaker 1: a good conversation. Always fun hanging out and catching up 909 00:51:22,920 --> 00:51:24,799 Speaker 1: with you. Definitely gonna be coming down and hanging out 910 00:51:24,840 --> 00:51:28,720 Speaker 1: with you in uh South America here at some point soon. Um, 911 00:51:28,880 --> 00:51:31,320 Speaker 1: for everyone that doesn't know. Check out George Gammon's channel 912 00:51:31,320 --> 00:51:34,680 Speaker 1: George Gammon on YouTube and Rebel Capitalists on YouTube as 913 00:51:34,719 --> 00:51:37,360 Speaker 1: well with Daily News. And I believe you have tickets 914 00:51:37,360 --> 00:51:39,600 Speaker 1: on sale for the next Rebel Capitalists Live coming up 915 00:51:39,600 --> 00:51:41,680 Speaker 1: in a couple of months, so check those out as well. 916 00:51:42,560 --> 00:51:45,320 Speaker 1: And um, shoot with that, anything else you want to 917 00:51:45,640 --> 00:51:48,400 Speaker 1: you want to say before we hang it up, No, buddy, 918 00:51:48,400 --> 00:51:52,040 Speaker 1: I sure appreciate the conversation. Uh as always had a 919 00:51:52,040 --> 00:51:54,160 Speaker 1: great time. Thanks for having me on. All right, thanks 920 00:51:54,160 --> 00:51:56,440 Speaker 1: so much for listening to this video, this interview I 921 00:51:56,480 --> 00:51:59,040 Speaker 1: did with George. Always a great time. Having George on 922 00:51:59,200 --> 00:52:00,840 Speaker 1: is someone that I can enter a friend, one of 923 00:52:00,840 --> 00:52:03,120 Speaker 1: the smartest guys I know, and hopefully you benefited