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Speaker 1: net in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast
Speaker 1: from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chat Milman, Chief
Speaker 1: Content Officer of the Action Network. It is week sixteen
Speaker 1: of the NFL season, three weeks left in the regular season.
Speaker 1: As a reminder, if you want to hear the Favorites
Speaker 1: of Full Day Early, you can listen live on AMP.
Speaker 1: You just download the free AMP app and follow at
Speaker 1: the Favorites where you can see our upcoming schedule. We're
Speaker 1: back recording live again this Thursday a m and then
Speaker 1: a special early recording next Tuesday the seventh at ten
Speaker 1: am Eastern. We do prize giveaways Thursday night coverage. It's
Speaker 1: a lot of fun on AMP. I am joined as
Speaker 1: I am in every single episode by my co host,
Speaker 1: my companion, my bff, Michael Padre professional better Simon Hunter. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it was that not the best sports weekend of the year. Brother,
Speaker 1: I don't know, it's debatable. Holy to Molly, Holy holy Holy.
Speaker 1: The World Cup was so insane, Like I can't believe
Speaker 1: we had to do our show. Convinced me in the
Speaker 1: middle of the World Cup. Thank god the timing worked
Speaker 1: out that we went live right as the as the
Speaker 1: game went to halftime, dude. And then the rest of
Speaker 1: the football day, that Jags game, the Tennessee game, the
Speaker 1: Patriots Raiders game like it dude. Yeah, and the Saturday
Speaker 1: of the cold I mean, look, we were in the
Speaker 1: middle of all of it. Um, we got a lot
Speaker 1: to talk about. We will basketball, I mean, all the sports.
Speaker 1: It was just a great We will. Of course, as
Speaker 1: we do, we will get to our foxhold. Uh, we
Speaker 1: will do the son and says we will do the
Speaker 1: exact decision. We will start to narrow down the board. Um,
Speaker 1: it is worth reviewing. I must say it is worth reviewing.
Speaker 1: Last week, Um voxhall was Bears plus nine nailed it.
Speaker 1: Simon says, Jack's plus four and a half nailed it,
Speaker 1: exact decision, could plus four didn't even sweat it. Uh uh,
Speaker 1: big balls, Washington Commanders minus four and a half. We
Speaker 1: will get to it. And then Simon doubled down on
Speaker 1: Washington for Scooch Roulette Washington minus four half that went
Speaker 1: with the Jacks plus four and a half. We're going
Speaker 1: to talk about this Washington game. UM. I know what
Speaker 1: it feels like to be you right now, to go
Speaker 1: all in on a team, have them break your heart
Speaker 1: like that. Um, and uh, it hurts. It hurts a lot.
Speaker 1: I want to get to some stats around this game,
Speaker 1: because it turns out, according to our luck rankings, you
Speaker 1: were on the right side. But as we all know,
Speaker 1: the right side is the winning side. I want to
Speaker 1: read a text that I sent to you and Matt
Speaker 1: Mitchell on UH the other day because the Colts game
Speaker 1: was so insane and then all of a sudden we've
Speaker 1: got uh the Bears game that we had, the Jack
Speaker 1: seam that we had, I wrote Sunday afternoon. Again, as
Speaker 1: is our custom, we don't text in the middle of
Speaker 1: these things because that MUSHes everything. We didn't like. Not
Speaker 1: once did we text each other on Saturday when we
Speaker 1: had the Colts four and a half and they were
Speaker 1: up thirty three nothing in the first half. We didn't
Speaker 1: text once, not a single time, because we're better than that.
Speaker 1: We're professionals. I texted ho home weekend Colt's heart attack
Speaker 1: jags w gives us a win today because we had
Speaker 1: him in the contest. Keeps our division future alive. Lions
Speaker 1: win clinches our overseason win total. On the Lions, we
Speaker 1: had six and a half there now at seven plus
Speaker 1: the Bears cover miracle. We had him in the contest
Speaker 1: and the Bears must now win outright the rest of
Speaker 1: the year. They must win out the rest of the
Speaker 1: year for to beat their season win total. We had
Speaker 1: him under five and a half. So in the contest
Speaker 1: we went three and two. I'm gonna wrap up my
Speaker 1: soliloquy here. But in the contest, we had the Colts,
Speaker 1: we had the Jags, Um, we had the Bears. Uh.
Speaker 1: We had Seattle. We lost that on Thursday night. And
Speaker 1: because Simon made us because Simon wasn't insistent, because Simon
Speaker 1: knows what he's doing, all the things he says to me,
Speaker 1: I'm a professional, you're stepping in it. I love the Giants,
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter. You're bullying me into taking the commanders
Speaker 1: and we're putting them in the contest. You made me
Speaker 1: feel small the entire week. We're even liking the commanders. Uh.
Speaker 1: For liking the Giants. You made us do it. I
Speaker 1: said in the app this is all Simon, I said.
Speaker 1: If it doesn't work out. At least it's going to
Speaker 1: be content. It is now content. We went three and
Speaker 1: two instead of four and one. Yeah, the shame of
Speaker 1: having another winning a week? What is that number? Oh
Speaker 1: no no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
Speaker 1: You don't get to you don't get to be like, oh,
Speaker 1: I got it wrong, but we still won. You' even
Speaker 1: watched the game, so you don't know what happened in
Speaker 1: the game for starters, well I do. But here's the thing,
Speaker 1: and this is you got the recap from everyone. Listen, listen, listen.
Speaker 1: I didn't think you'd get so defensive, to be honest,
Speaker 1: I thought you'd be more of a professional. This is
Speaker 1: me defensive and out right here, this is me defensive. Yeah.
Speaker 1: You know how much we love the luck rankings. We
Speaker 1: talked about it all the time. It is the best
Speaker 1: measure of regression that has ever been invented. It is
Speaker 1: the best measure of how you might want to think
Speaker 1: about betting the next week. For example, the top of
Speaker 1: the luck rankings last week, the Bears the Colts, Like,
Speaker 1: those were games that you wanted to be on. Right,
Speaker 1: So when the week is over, uh, Sean Kerner, Nick Giffin,
Speaker 1: Billy Ward the guys who do the luck rankings for us.
Speaker 1: They asked the question in the luck Rankings slack, basically saying,
Speaker 1: who do you guys think was the most unlucky team
Speaker 1: this past week? And people threw it out there like
Speaker 1: was it Tampa Bay, What was it Philly? Chicago? Um,
Speaker 1: it was Washington Commanders. UM. There were two red zone turnovers,
Speaker 1: they were dominant in yards per play. There was a
Speaker 1: Giants defensive touchdown. Ron Rivera punted from the thirty five
Speaker 1: uh six points off of two fifty yard field goals
Speaker 1: uh for the Giants. UM. Washington missed a two point
Speaker 1: conversion and an extra point. The expected score this game,
Speaker 1: according to our Metrics, was Washington ended up being New York.
Speaker 1: So Simon, you were right. No, I mean, it's one
Speaker 1: of those things where it's like I took the it's
Speaker 1: just painfulness sentence that I lost a lot of money
Speaker 1: on it, and uh, I'm not getting that back. So
Speaker 1: it was a great weekend of the sense that dogs
Speaker 1: go to overtime to die, and we had two dogs
Speaker 1: go to overtime. They both covered for us. So I
Speaker 1: already had felt up by using my luck, but the
Speaker 1: Washington one, I honestly didn't feel like, Um, I did
Speaker 1: not see a plane out that way, obviously, but it's
Speaker 1: an L. Like in the end of the day, like
Speaker 1: you just said, it's a bad bed. It's an L.
Speaker 1: I am the last person ever go well, at least
Speaker 1: I got good closing line value. Ever being that guy,
Speaker 1: it's and l's and l. It doesn't matter if you
Speaker 1: have a good closing line value or if you had
Speaker 1: a good reader, the luck doesn't work out. Um, the Giants,
Speaker 1: they burned me all season and them, them and the Jaguars,
Speaker 1: Like if the Jaguars hadn't covered me and Chad would
Speaker 1: have been three and nine in the contest on Jaguar games,
Speaker 1: which is by far our worst record, but close to
Speaker 1: that is the Giants we like. I just I've been
Speaker 1: burned by them all season. I can't stop it. Like
Speaker 1: they're the luckiest team ever. It don't matter. They keep winning,
Speaker 1: they keep covering. Um, So that was that was a
Speaker 1: tough one. But at the same time, like you just said,
Speaker 1: it's like, yeah, I was, I was hurt that night.
Speaker 1: Then you wake up next morning, so like I'm already
Speaker 1: onto week sixteen, what else can I do? That's kind
Speaker 1: of the way the business works. I can't really mope
Speaker 1: about it. Just gotta move on to next week Rondo Cincinnati.
Speaker 1: One more thing about the luck rankings, which I love
Speaker 1: and we've talked about and Signy you and I referenced
Speaker 1: them all the time. I'm convinced me. We rent them
Speaker 1: in on green Dot daily all the shows that we do.
Speaker 1: When there is a luck differential between two teams of
Speaker 1: ten points or more this season, the underdog, meaning the
Speaker 1: team that is more unlucky, covers at a fifty clip.
Speaker 1: When there is a luck differential of sixteen or more,
Speaker 1: the team that is more unlucky is covering it a
Speaker 1: six clip. And by the way, we're not talking about
Speaker 1: five games like that second number. That's a a data
Speaker 1: set of close to sixty games for this season alone,
Speaker 1: a hundred games for the first one of ten plus,
Speaker 1: So you know, it's just interesting numbers to me. We've
Speaker 1: created a new metric here that really defines value in
Speaker 1: a different way. I'm super excited about it, which we
Speaker 1: talk all about it. It's another tool you just don't
Speaker 1: only bet it if it lines up with you. That
Speaker 1: should give you more confidence back to your side and
Speaker 1: to the people that this weekend, told told me how
Speaker 1: meet how lucky meet Chad got because all these teams
Speaker 1: came from behind. Guys, there's obviously luck that plays into it.
Speaker 1: We put in the work and for our new listeners.
Speaker 1: Not even two years ago, me and Chad finished in
Speaker 1: the top twenty and our pick contest. So that's gonna
Speaker 1: be two out of three years now that we're gonna
Speaker 1: make the money. Because met cha can go owen five
Speaker 1: every next three weeks, we're in the money. Yeah, dude,
Speaker 1: I had no idea I was gonna ask you. I
Speaker 1: mean we're behind, We're not that far off the leader,
Speaker 1: That's what I mean, Like we're up there. This year
Speaker 1: is better than that year. I mean that year we
Speaker 1: finished I say top twenty, Well we tied for twenty,
Speaker 1: so we're probably twenty six. This year we're looking for
Speaker 1: top ten. So yeah, it's tough. I've seen I wish
Speaker 1: we won four and one, Chad, but three and two
Speaker 1: and on a week a lot of people out of
Speaker 1: down week. It was good because the public had a
Speaker 1: go week. I mean we saw that the public with
Speaker 1: super giant side, but that was the public side. The
Speaker 1: public side was huge on the Bengals they were down
Speaker 1: what was that seventeen nothing? They came all the way back. So, uh,
Speaker 1: some guys got hurt trying to go with the sharp
Speaker 1: side this week, and that's kind of how it goes,
Speaker 1: like you're not gonna always always been the right side.
Speaker 1: And that BEng was one of the perfect example. That
Speaker 1: number sat at three and a half all week. Really
Speaker 1: smart groups were all over that, They're all over Washington.
Speaker 1: They got slaughtered. So that's just there there. You never
Speaker 1: know when you make these bets, you never know. I
Speaker 1: was gonna ask you for an update. We went three
Speaker 1: and two. I think we had fallen. We had lost
Speaker 1: a little ground before even though we went four and one.
Speaker 1: So where are we will place your we in? What's
Speaker 1: our total number right now? Well, the first place got
Speaker 1: finally lost. You lost three games, which was nice because
Speaker 1: again he had been on this crazy rue. You knew
Speaker 1: it was gonna eventually come back around. That's just gambling. Um.
Speaker 1: So luckily for us, we're four back, four back, and
Speaker 1: what place are we in? I have to pop it up.
Speaker 1: I bet you we're like we probably moved into the
Speaker 1: top fifty, top forty, and yeah, so when we did
Speaker 1: it two years ago, there was three thousand people, so
Speaker 1: like that was obviously a little easier. This year it's
Speaker 1: over four thousands, so it's just that much harder to
Speaker 1: make it back in the money. Um, the fact that
Speaker 1: we already locked that up three weeks to go, chat's
Speaker 1: pretty crazy, brother, just two losing weeks, we're in the money.
Speaker 1: We're in the money. Um, all right, you know what, then,
Speaker 1: it's fucking rock and roll. Let's close this out. Let's
Speaker 1: close it out with three winning weeks and a lot
Speaker 1: of fun. And I was sad. I was just thinking
Speaker 1: to myself, we only have seven weeks of football left
Speaker 1: and seven Sundays left. When I just said it was
Speaker 1: weeks sixteen and we had three weeks weeks left, I
Speaker 1: was super bummed. I'm loving It's been a good weekends.
Speaker 1: And you know, we'll talk about the Jacks a little bit.
Speaker 1: But my uh older son is home from college and
Speaker 1: a friend came home with him, and my son was
Speaker 1: that my older son was out, my younger son was out,
Speaker 1: and so my kid's friend was watching the jackson A
Speaker 1: game with me, and they're from Jacksonville, and so it
Speaker 1: was insane to watch the end of that game. And
Speaker 1: I'm going to miss these Sunday moments so much. Um,
Speaker 1: all right, let's talk about the Jackson the Jets. Thursday
Speaker 1: Night Jets are It's like you're seeing lines on both sides,
Speaker 1: basically both teams being underdogs by bye bye one plus
Speaker 1: one plus one and a half. Zach Wilson, this is
Speaker 1: a hard one. Yeah, I'm legally opting myself out. I can't.
Speaker 1: I can't make a non biased pick here where the
Speaker 1: numbers said the Jets. The smart side is the Jets.
Speaker 1: You always take the Jets here. I love the Jaguars.
Speaker 1: I love everything about them. I love what they've become.
Speaker 1: They're my top three favorite team the bet this year.
Speaker 1: I'm just I think of all of the money I've
Speaker 1: lost them in this year. I love them. I love
Speaker 1: this team. I've loved Trevor Lawrence. I feel like a
Speaker 1: proud dad seeing them grow up this season, like they
Speaker 1: just they've changed so much as years gone along. You
Speaker 1: just see the confidence building where even when they're down
Speaker 1: in the games like they were this past weekend, they
Speaker 1: just never give up. And I love I love that
Speaker 1: about teams. So the smart pick is the Jets. You're
Speaker 1: taking the Jets at home in a short week after
Speaker 1: a really bad, crushing loss at home against the Jaguars
Speaker 1: team that just had the one of the season for them,
Speaker 1: Like that was an insane way to win a game
Speaker 1: at home. So DA really can't make a pick on
Speaker 1: this one. So whoever the dog is maybe all tease,
Speaker 1: I'm up with someone to throw that into play, But
Speaker 1: as we sit here right now, I just I'm so biased.
Speaker 1: I just want to take the Jaguars despite the numbers
Speaker 1: saying you take the Jets. I just can't give out
Speaker 1: a player and make a play right now. I feel
Speaker 1: like with this Jaguars team, we were just too early.
Speaker 1: Um we we believed in Doug Peterson so much. We're
Speaker 1: both big fans of Doug Peterson. We thought he his
Speaker 1: sort of learning his teachings would would imbue themselves into
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence much sooner than they than they did, and
Speaker 1: sort of the chemistry would would be there faster. Because
Speaker 1: I also had a pretty big bet on Trevor Lawrence
Speaker 1: seventy two want to lead the league in touchdown passes,
Speaker 1: and I felt like on Sunday he was trying to
Speaker 1: make up all the ground at one time, you know,
Speaker 1: and he'll still finish top five. Like he's got twenty
Speaker 1: four right now. Uh Kirk Cousins as twenty four, he's
Speaker 1: behind Geno Smith at six and Josh Allen, Joe Burrow
Speaker 1: and the Homes with both all thirty and north of thirty.
Speaker 1: He's gonna end up having an incredible year. Yeah. Well,
Speaker 1: I told you. The hardest thing about what I'm doing
Speaker 1: is I'm we're not seeing anything we when we do
Speaker 1: this podcast in May in June, all I have is
Speaker 1: just the what I saw last year, and then all
Speaker 1: the data on paper on on your computer, right, that's
Speaker 1: what I have to go off of. So the Jaguars
Speaker 1: on paper, I love that company there because they had
Speaker 1: all this talent and then you look at their schedule. Okay,
Speaker 1: they had that week one loss to Washington, but then
Speaker 1: they won twenty four nothing against the Colts. Then they
Speaker 1: won at the Chargers third eight to ten, and then
Speaker 1: they went on the road. So again that's two huge
Speaker 1: wins back to back. We were full on sucked. Then
Speaker 1: then they went and played the Eagles on the road
Speaker 1: and they lost that game with all those turnovers and
Speaker 1: all those turnovers, they lost by like eight points. I
Speaker 1: think it was like twenty one. That was like, oh
Speaker 1: my god, they're for real, Like they just went toe
Speaker 1: to toe and one of the best teams in football,
Speaker 1: and then they turned into a dumpers from here. They
Speaker 1: lost to Houston the following week six thirteen to six,
Speaker 1: and it just was a spiral there in the middle
Speaker 1: of the season. So the fact that they, you know,
Speaker 1: Doug Peterson righted the ship after they lost five straight
Speaker 1: games in the middle of the season and you know,
Speaker 1: they've just been playing in these good close games. They
Speaker 1: had to blow out obviously against Detroit Um. But yeah,
Speaker 1: the Jaguar is one of those teams where it makes
Speaker 1: me feel good, like we love them coming to the
Speaker 1: year we have. I mean, I know, Chad, bet if
Speaker 1: I have a lot of money, bet on them at
Speaker 1: thirteen to one, twelve to one to win this division. Easy, easy,
Speaker 1: easy time Now to take up position on Tennessee, like
Speaker 1: no matter what, even if they want, if they lose
Speaker 1: this game, that they have to beat Houston and then
Speaker 1: it comes down to the final game with Tennessee. Those
Speaker 1: are the That's what me and Chad talked about all
Speaker 1: the time about taking positions that hedge out on since
Speaker 1: a dream scenario like if you had gotten it earlier.
Speaker 1: Even if you've got seven to one or eight to one,
Speaker 1: it's it's easy three to one no matter what. When
Speaker 1: they played Tennessee in the final week of the year,
Speaker 1: So uh, you're right like that them in the lines,
Speaker 1: those two making the playoffs, that would be just amazing
Speaker 1: for us in the show, just because those are two
Speaker 1: teams we really talked about a lot this past summer
Speaker 1: and they've really come on here at the end of
Speaker 1: the season. So, like I said, I'm too biased to
Speaker 1: make a logical pick on this game. That's why the
Speaker 1: Lions Jets game was so hard last week, because like
Speaker 1: we love the Lions, we've been in love with the Lions.
Speaker 1: We pit on it. You went with your baby Detroit.
Speaker 1: I went in love Baby and the Jet Lyons, and
Speaker 1: I was dead wrong. Yeah, exactly, all right, So we're
Speaker 1: gonna move on from that one. These Saints are two
Speaker 1: and a half point underdogs to the Browns in Cleveland.
Speaker 1: We've talked a lot about this already on Green Dot Daily,
Speaker 1: so hopefully people catch that show at noon daily in
Speaker 1: the Action Network, Gap on YouTube, etcetera. There is Arctic
Speaker 1: weather crossing the US should be snow should be a
Speaker 1: been below zero, should be uh fifteen to thirty mile
Speaker 1: winds um it is the lowest total in a decade,
Speaker 1: down to thirty one and a half. I kind of
Speaker 1: like the Browns here. Wow, yes, I mean a full
Speaker 1: slatest Saturday on Christmas Eve. Chat isn't again. We're just
Speaker 1: just a magical month run we've had your sport. I
Speaker 1: should remind people this is a Saturday game. Yeah, it's
Speaker 1: Christmas Eve. Yeah, I'm with you on Cleveland. We gotta
Speaker 1: follow them. Wait and see what the deals with Nick Chubb.
Speaker 1: Nick Chubb apparently it's not practicing today. We need him
Speaker 1: to practice. We need we need Nick Chubb. We are
Speaker 1: at me and Chat are not Watson backers. We just
Speaker 1: we do not think he looks right. I think the
Speaker 1: public is with us on that. What they put up
Speaker 1: thirteen points last week against the Ravens. We all know
Speaker 1: Flamar played in that game. Ravens are gonna win that game.
Speaker 1: So yeah, not not don't know really what to do
Speaker 1: with this one. Um, I'm with you, Chat, like I
Speaker 1: wanted to take Cleveland against the Saints team that we've
Speaker 1: seen all year. They've struggled when they've on outdoor, especially
Speaker 1: with Andy Dalton. So um, Cleveland were probably the play,
Speaker 1: but I just need to know what the deals with
Speaker 1: the child. All right, Well, look, I'll look forward to
Speaker 1: a text on Saturday morning. Um, we'll be doing convince
Speaker 1: me Saturday morning and so hopefully we'll get an update
Speaker 1: at that point and we can decide after the show
Speaker 1: for putting it in. Falcons seven and a half point
Speaker 1: underdogs on the road at the Ravens also a Saturday game.
Speaker 1: Huge Saturday slate, obviously a lot of games being played
Speaker 1: on Saturday, smaller slate on Sunday, Christmas Day. The Ravens
Speaker 1: are seven half point favorites. Indicates to me people expecting
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson to play. I have no opinion on this game.
Speaker 1: It would be a pass pass right move on Bengals Patriots.
Speaker 1: Now the rubber meets the road. We have been on
Speaker 1: a street with the Bengals. We have loved them. We
Speaker 1: played them consistently in weird spots where they were road favorites.
Speaker 1: We didn't do it this past weekend, but we didn't
Speaker 1: bet the We didn't put the box either. Now they're
Speaker 1: three and a half point favorites on the road. At
Speaker 1: the Patriots. Yeah, yeah, just like last week then it
Speaker 1: was like painful we stayed away from it was seventeen
Speaker 1: nothing or seventeen to three, and I was kicking myself.
Speaker 1: But it's like, of course the Tampa's controlling this game
Speaker 1: and doing whatever they want, and the Bengals are just
Speaker 1: laying a total leg I don't know what to deal
Speaker 1: with this, Chad, like, this is a game I've already
Speaker 1: bet a game I would love to make the Simon says,
Speaker 1: bet but I care about our fans, and it's like
Speaker 1: how much how many people are actually gonna listen to
Speaker 1: us chat like this is? I think a lot there
Speaker 1: is going to listen to us. We're really good at this,
Speaker 1: I know, but I'm just I feel I feel what
Speaker 1: they're what they're gonna say. It's like I can't do it.
Speaker 1: Where it's like you have to do it. If you've
Speaker 1: been betting these ugly dogs with us all season, you
Speaker 1: have to bet this. You have to bet the Patriots,
Speaker 1: who just embarrassed themselves and then are gonna be made
Speaker 1: fun of all week ring against a Bengals team that
Speaker 1: is I don't even describe it. They're one of the
Speaker 1: greatest public teams ever forbetting. There are eleven a t
Speaker 1: s last all weeks, and the public has been betting
Speaker 1: them basically that whole time. I think the only time,
Speaker 1: I mean you really went against the grain was in
Speaker 1: that Tennessee match up where Tennessee was at home. They
Speaker 1: were an underdog at the time. People still thought Tennessee
Speaker 1: was better than they were and they were all over it.
Speaker 1: And since he just once again, they came, they came
Speaker 1: in and they won. They've just been that team this year.
Speaker 1: We have no choice. But this is a game we
Speaker 1: always have to play, so uh, maybe I won't make it.
Speaker 1: Time says you want to make a foxhole because this
Speaker 1: is this is truly it's either that are big balls,
Speaker 1: like it's one of those games we all have to
Speaker 1: bet because this is what we've done all years. I
Speaker 1: feel like we've got a pretty good contender for big balls. Okay,
Speaker 1: do you know what I'm talking about. I mean, there's
Speaker 1: like three games this week that take huge balls, all right, So, uh,
Speaker 1: I feel like there's a contender for big balls. If
Speaker 1: you want to make it. Assignment says, go ahead, But
Speaker 1: it doesn't feel like a Simon says to me the
Speaker 1: spirit of Simon says is right now because the line
Speaker 1: is going to move. I do think this could move though,
Speaker 1: like pros are gonna be all over this, but um yeah,
Speaker 1: let's let's just make it a foxhold on, you know me,
Speaker 1: regardless of what's going on. I'm a foxhole guy. I
Speaker 1: commit to a team, I commit to a city. I'm
Speaker 1: a foxhole guy. Jus, I hate this. I fucking hate
Speaker 1: this game. I know, no, it's awful. I have more
Speaker 1: confidence in this than I did with the Bucks last week,
Speaker 1: where like the Bucks, I couldn't see the road map,
Speaker 1: but the number didn't make sense. Where this number does,
Speaker 1: Like I literally have this number three Like last week
Speaker 1: with the Bucks game, I couldn't touch it because we
Speaker 1: said all the time, why is this number not six?
Speaker 1: And that just spooked me. Just a weird number. This
Speaker 1: number makes sense, like since he yes, they're very good,
Speaker 1: they also have weaknesses and some of those weakness is
Speaker 1: going to be exploited by a Patriots team that's desperate.
Speaker 1: So um, it just feels like I hate to be like, oh,
Speaker 1: this is such a smart play. This really does feel
Speaker 1: like a smart number, Like you just take this number
Speaker 1: and one of those games if you can't handle it,
Speaker 1: just don't watch it because it's not gonna be fun.
Speaker 1: Patriots plus three and a half. We're going to the Foxhole.
Speaker 1: Let's go the Buffalo Hills, going to visit the Monsters
Speaker 1: of the Midway covering machines. Bears are eight and a
Speaker 1: half point underdogs at FanDuel. There are other places where
Speaker 1: you can get nine and a half. I just want
Speaker 1: to be clear on that. Other legal places dogs between
Speaker 1: three and ten this year, covering at a fifty eight
Speaker 1: percent clip. You're getting a bad team less than win
Speaker 1: percentage against a good team more than win percentage. The
Speaker 1: Dogs in this scenario cover at clip the past six years.
Speaker 1: No reason not to take the Bears at eight and
Speaker 1: a half or nine and a half if you can
Speaker 1: get it. Yeah, And we just we keep seeing these
Speaker 1: teams that have good offenses called Chicago and when they
Speaker 1: had to keep up fields keeps up. I mean Miami
Speaker 1: came in, they put up thirty five points, fields put
Speaker 1: up thirty two points. The Troy came in, they put
Speaker 1: up the one points, fields put up thirty points. We
Speaker 1: saw the Eagles, they came in, they put up twenty five,
Speaker 1: put up twenty it's just I can't explain it. It
Speaker 1: doesn't make sense. I watched the whole game. The kid
Speaker 1: would run in for twenty yards, get a first down,
Speaker 1: take a sack, so then it'll be he'll be second
Speaker 1: and twenty seven, and they'll run it again for another
Speaker 1: fifth yard to get another first down. It's just it's
Speaker 1: literally recess recess football, and there's no game playing, nothing
Speaker 1: teams can do to prepare for it. Um, he is
Speaker 1: the freak. But on the flip side, the Bills have
Speaker 1: just been caught by the books. I mean, we could
Speaker 1: finally get caught here at chad By back in the Bears.
Speaker 1: But it's another thing that's it's got us to this
Speaker 1: point fading. Josh Allen is a big favorite. In his
Speaker 1: last nine games, he's one in eight A T s
Speaker 1: and and you can look at the numbers, it could
Speaker 1: be two and seven because it depends. You got that
Speaker 1: Brown's number, Remember that that Brown's got moved from Buffalo
Speaker 1: to Detroit, and that number is all wonky all week. Um,
Speaker 1: the Bills are just a good team. But are they
Speaker 1: the great team that everyone keeps putting them on this
Speaker 1: pedestal to be? No? I mean they just they led
Speaker 1: teams in these games. We've seen it time and time again.
Speaker 1: Like Miami, they're in control of that game in the
Speaker 1: first half. Miami comes out in the second half, plays
Speaker 1: them tough. Josh Allen becomes a superhero that he is,
Speaker 1: and he leads his team on these victories. So I
Speaker 1: think the Bills are rightly rightly so a top three
Speaker 1: team the f C. But their team that gets caught
Speaker 1: in these big spreads. And that's what the books keep doing.
Speaker 1: They keep having big numbers. The public are happy to
Speaker 1: do it. They're happy to bet them, they're happy to
Speaker 1: throw them in teasers, and we keep getting free points
Speaker 1: here chat. So the snumbers should probably be seven and
Speaker 1: a half. I mean, like you just had Fantal it's
Speaker 1: eight and a half. Shop around it's nine and a half.
Speaker 1: So hopefully it grows nine a half everywhere and maybe
Speaker 1: in ten. That'd be amazing because we didn't even talked
Speaker 1: about this is gonna be a freezing game. They're calling
Speaker 1: from mine's eleven degree weather. Josh Allen, he is incredible.
Speaker 1: We just saw the Bills give up two hundred yards
Speaker 1: to Miami on the ground. That's what the Bears want
Speaker 1: to do. They want to run the ball. We saw
Speaker 1: them run last week all over the Eagles, and it's
Speaker 1: the same thing with this matchup. So a lot of
Speaker 1: things just point to this Bears game. So it's does
Speaker 1: it feel a little too easy? A little bit chat,
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna alloe to you. We've had two weeks
Speaker 1: now where um, you know, Denver the week before was
Speaker 1: the biggest bet team as a big dog that covered.
Speaker 1: Last week, the Bears were the most pet team against
Speaker 1: the Eagles that covered. So the pros they've been over,
Speaker 1: We've been all over these big spreads at home. Uh.
Speaker 1: I can't avoid it. It's just such a big number.
Speaker 1: I just can't not take this number. It is strange, right,
Speaker 1: it does feel like, wait a second, why are they
Speaker 1: still making this number so big knowing everything we know
Speaker 1: about the end of the season, especially with this Bill's team,
Speaker 1: but also just when you're getting the over inflation on
Speaker 1: a team that's really good, and maybe it's people just
Speaker 1: back in the Bills and the books are giving the
Speaker 1: wise guys that the point, half, a point whatever because
Speaker 1: they know all the money is going to come in
Speaker 1: on the Bills. Anyways, it's kind of crazy alert how
Speaker 1: many quarterbacks. Have you received brutal anyone takings to do
Speaker 1: something about this album? All right, Minnesota Vikings are three
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites at Vandel hosting the New
Speaker 1: York Football Giants. I know it's a bad number. I
Speaker 1: know we've been mocking Kirk Cousins all year long. This
Speaker 1: feels like a Viking spot. Yeah, I'll wait and see
Speaker 1: on it, because I'm with you, like like four and
Speaker 1: a half five, I was like, nice, it's a good
Speaker 1: number on the Giants, Like you just said, they got
Speaker 1: crazy lucky last week, and I don't know the public.
Speaker 1: I'm excited to see what the public does with this number,
Speaker 1: just because, like you just said, it feels like the
Speaker 1: no brainer play here is you just take the Giants
Speaker 1: like they're good on the road. The Vikings they win
Speaker 1: games when they win, they win close games, So you
Speaker 1: just take the three and half kind of the same
Speaker 1: reason we took the Colts last week. Um, but Minnesota here, offensively,
Speaker 1: they just match up really well with this Giants team. Um,
Speaker 1: and there's no Daniel Jones had big players. I couldn't.
Speaker 1: I cannot believe that fourth and nine completion he had
Speaker 1: against Washington was insane, like he does have these moments
Speaker 1: where he really does step up. But man, that's uh,
Speaker 1: that's that's tricky chat. I want to join you on it,
Speaker 1: but I can't. I can't make a move on this
Speaker 1: one yet. I'd have to hear what other guys are doing,
Speaker 1: because to me, it feels I feel like you just
Speaker 1: said it where it's like I blindly wanted to take
Speaker 1: the Giants. The number has moved a lot, like it's
Speaker 1: all the way down to three and a half in
Speaker 1: the last two days, So I'm gonna wait and see
Speaker 1: on it. Well, look, it may continue to go down
Speaker 1: because the number opened at five. The money is on
Speaker 1: the Giants right now, So what's that? That just seems
Speaker 1: like the pros came in early, like you said, it
Speaker 1: opened up for five. Yeah, that money is no money
Speaker 1: coming in on the Giants at three and a half.
Speaker 1: That came in on the Giants at five and four
Speaker 1: and a half and four. But it's possible if it
Speaker 1: gets to three, I'd be comfortable taking the vikings here
Speaker 1: me as well, Like if if we honestly, like you know,
Speaker 1: our context does a weird where they split the difference
Speaker 1: with a half. So if it's two and a half.
Speaker 1: It's like, how can we avoid that. We're getting them
Speaker 1: under a field goal at home the team that's kind
Speaker 1: of a no brainer. So now we got the Detroit
Speaker 1: Lions who cashed our season win total ticket. We love
Speaker 1: this team, we have loved them since May. We want
Speaker 1: to marry this team. They are two and a half
Speaker 1: point favorites over the over the Panthers on the road.
Speaker 1: That's a tough one. Yeah, it was actually gonna be
Speaker 1: My assignment says that if it was at three, I
Speaker 1: was gonna tell people you gotta grab it right now
Speaker 1: because it's gonna go back to two and a half.
Speaker 1: But it's sitting at two and a half and money
Speaker 1: is pouring in on Detroit right now, So yeah, I'll
Speaker 1: tell people just wait, that's what I'm not gonna make it.
Speaker 1: Time said, you can just wait and hopefully next show
Speaker 1: will be at three for you. But to me, it's
Speaker 1: like a play you have to make. Carolina at home
Speaker 1: with that defense after getting embarrassed the week before, the
Speaker 1: three games before that at home, their defense had really
Speaker 1: shown up and dominated. They did have a bad week
Speaker 1: last week. That was just one of those games that
Speaker 1: where it's like trying to overreact to it, take too
Speaker 1: much from it. They still have a chance to win
Speaker 1: their division. So if you're like, well Caroline is gonna quit,
Speaker 1: they're not like their in their mind they can still
Speaker 1: win this division, which I also love for this matchup
Speaker 1: where they're desperate. Carolina is gonna be a very desperate team.
Speaker 1: Catch on three at home, I gets a Troy team that, man,
Speaker 1: are they feeling good? Like they've just been on this
Speaker 1: crazy run now it's the second of it's the back
Speaker 1: to back outdoor thing as well for me, where it's
Speaker 1: like all right, back to back outdoor on the road
Speaker 1: for golf, Hell yeah, win this game. I moved them
Speaker 1: way up my power rating board because, like, to me,
Speaker 1: this is the kind of game you win. I put
Speaker 1: them right up there, like right behind at Eagles, Vikings, Cowboys,
Speaker 1: forty Niners group where it's like they deserve to be
Speaker 1: in the playoffs. This the Troy team is legit because
Speaker 1: this is a trap game for all the temference purposes,
Speaker 1: Like this is kind of those games where you we're
Speaker 1: gonna go on the road, They're gonna split two road games.
Speaker 1: They weren't gonna win win both because you just need
Speaker 1: to either have like an m v P or an
Speaker 1: MVP defense, just a high level talent to do that.
Speaker 1: They do that. That shows me a lot because this
Speaker 1: is just such a bad spot for them after such
Speaker 1: an emotional win. The two like a missfield goal man.
Speaker 1: That must have been such a fun ride home for
Speaker 1: them that flight. Everything still feeling good all week. Caroline
Speaker 1: is a complete opposite side. They just got absolutely blown
Speaker 1: out and was the same reason people are so heavy
Speaker 1: on Pittsburgh the week against Carolina. Right, Carolina had a
Speaker 1: huge win on the road, then they came home. They
Speaker 1: kind of laid an egg against the Pittsburgh team that
Speaker 1: was just more desperate. So, um yeah, interesting Number one
Speaker 1: one stand three. There's one book that sells a three
Speaker 1: sadly route sponsored by that show that that company. So
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna make it, Simon says, because we don't
Speaker 1: have the three right now. I was gonna say, there
Speaker 1: is a book that has a three out there, and
Speaker 1: I don't think. I think in the spirit of our
Speaker 1: partnership with Fando, we should not make that the play. Uh,
Speaker 1: here's an interesting game. The Seahawks are on the road
Speaker 1: at the Chiefs. Seahawks run the ball really well. Chiefs
Speaker 1: do not do not defend against the run very well.
Speaker 1: It's going to be one of these games that has
Speaker 1: crazy wins potential. Snow, we're still on Saturday games six below. Yeah, huge,
Speaker 1: Like the total. You should talk about the total for
Speaker 1: a second. Started a fifty, now down to forty eight
Speaker 1: and a half. But the spread is nine nine and
Speaker 1: a half. What's your take? Yeah, when we can start
Speaker 1: with the total open at fifth, sit down a four
Speaker 1: and a half, I would still take that. It's already
Speaker 1: talked about earlier today. It's going to be a nice
Speaker 1: bowl there. It's supposed to be negative six with win,
Speaker 1: with win blowing. Um, I've say it's Tuesday. Things could
Speaker 1: always change, but that colds not go anywhere like that
Speaker 1: colds him down. It's gonna be there. Obviously. The big
Speaker 1: deal is the wind. If it's a windy game, no doubt,
Speaker 1: like smash that under. I would just bet the internet.
Speaker 1: I just gotta have the number in case it does
Speaker 1: move way down. Then you could play in the middle
Speaker 1: two you can get to go to the the middle opportunities.
Speaker 1: So looking at this matchup, though, I feel like you
Speaker 1: just nailed it where it's probably gonna be a completely
Speaker 1: different game plan that we used to for both these teams.
Speaker 1: It's just gonna be hard to be a past heavy
Speaker 1: team when you have the weather as it is. And
Speaker 1: we already know the Seahawks their biggest weakness is the run.
Speaker 1: Team's gonna run against them, and he Reid's gonna do that.
Speaker 1: He's happy to make those kind of adjustments, but versa
Speaker 1: like the Seahawks. You just said it. It's like the
Speaker 1: Kenneth Walker thing. I knew that was an important important
Speaker 1: to Gino. We've kind of seen these last couple weeks,
Speaker 1: but they can't get a run game going and the
Speaker 1: offense seems to flutter. So I can't do it. I
Speaker 1: cannot back you know again, even though I love this
Speaker 1: number and it's so massive, it's just we say it
Speaker 1: all the time, not that he just turned back into
Speaker 1: a pumpkin, but a little bit. It seems like the
Speaker 1: defenses of kind figure it out what he likes to
Speaker 1: do and what he doesn't like to do. And we've
Speaker 1: seen him defended differently these last couple of weeks, and
Speaker 1: they've struggled. I mean, they went from leading the division
Speaker 1: to being almost eight percent guaranteed to make the playoffs too.
Speaker 1: They're probably not gonna make the playoffs unless they steal
Speaker 1: a game or two here. So um, interesting how quick
Speaker 1: things flipped for the Seahawks team where everything was just
Speaker 1: so well and even their fan base was like, yeah,
Speaker 1: we could use that high draft pick to get players
Speaker 1: to support you know, we don't need to take a
Speaker 1: quarterback too. It's completely flipped of yeah, maybe maybe gives
Speaker 1: you know, a one year deal, but we need a
Speaker 1: draft a quarterback and that that is kind of how
Speaker 1: it goes where. Um, you know, he's a great, great felon,
Speaker 1: he's a great backup. Is he one of the thirty
Speaker 1: two best? They should be an every week starter? That's
Speaker 1: that's up for debate because it seems like defense is
Speaker 1: kind kind of figure him out. So I usually love
Speaker 1: to just take blindly against the Chiefs. Is a big dog. Um.
Speaker 1: I could maybe get talked into it, but as you
Speaker 1: sit here right now, you know, just disappointed me so
Speaker 1: much last game, like there the four yards were begging
Speaker 1: for that game to be stolen from them, and he
Speaker 1: couldn't complete drives. I mean they drove down there, they
Speaker 1: got two field goals if those are touchdowns one game,
Speaker 1: but it wasn't because you know, it just was not
Speaker 1: capitalized in their red zones. So, um, I just I
Speaker 1: can't make a bet yet on this one. I love
Speaker 1: the Seahawks here right now. Yeah, that's the right I mean,
Speaker 1: it's the right player. Just my home was a big favorite,
Speaker 1: never really works out for him, and like the Seahawks,
Speaker 1: they've got guys who can cover. So it just feels
Speaker 1: to me like schematically on the field and the number
Speaker 1: the Seahawks on the right side. The worry is Congino
Speaker 1: keep up though. That's the worry right now because Gino
Speaker 1: three weeks ago, no brainer. But these last couple of
Speaker 1: weeks they've just been so bad offensively and even defensively.
Speaker 1: But I do think the Cold want to gate some
Speaker 1: of that, some of their weaknesses. But now you're right,
Speaker 1: it's probably I probably talked myself into it, but right
Speaker 1: now I just can't do it. All right, Well, uh,
Speaker 1: we can always think about the Texans at plus five
Speaker 1: and a half against the Titans, it stinks this is
Speaker 1: gonna be our no brainer play you would have banged
Speaker 1: up Tannehill forced his way back into the game last week.
Speaker 1: I don't think he's gonna play like we've already seen
Speaker 1: this number come down. I'm out, like we we've been
Speaker 1: in this exact position before with the rookie QB in there.
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry ran over me and Chat. I mean, Houston
Speaker 1: got absolutely demolished by Derrick Henry the last time they played.
Speaker 1: You just go through the history. Yeah it we're just
Speaker 1: like a hundred and fifty yards against the Houston team.
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry just for some reason dominates his team every time.
Speaker 1: So Houston, if the season had started two weeks ago,
Speaker 1: people would be looking at them as the top three team.
Speaker 1: I mean they want why wire to wire with the
Speaker 1: Dallas and then the same thing with the Chiefs, Like
Speaker 1: love you Smith. I went from thinking he was a
Speaker 1: joke to like, this guy gets his guys up, Like
Speaker 1: he can keep this team focused at whatever they are?
Speaker 1: What are? They won in twelve, one and thirteen. Pretty incredible,
Speaker 1: But it feels like we missed the best of the
Speaker 1: number here, Chat like, yeah, I'm with it that we
Speaker 1: should probably be in Houston. But the fact that there
Speaker 1: was seven and a half just this morning and yesterday,
Speaker 1: it kind of kind of thinks we missed the best number.
Speaker 1: I'm rushing through this a little bit. There's a lot
Speaker 1: of games it's you know, but there's also just some
Speaker 1: games that I'm dying to get to. Commanders plus seven
Speaker 1: against the Niners is not one of them. Really, you
Speaker 1: don't like that. I like the Commanders in the game. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's the right side, like you're like, the Niners are
Speaker 1: so overinflated. Right to do when he's a big favorite
Speaker 1: chain of hand, you always fail you them. Yeah, this
Speaker 1: is the move. I'm with the Commanders. I think everyone
Speaker 1: just has a little bit of a bad taste in
Speaker 1: the mouth of them, even I bet you luck ran
Speaker 1: because will come out. This will be one of the
Speaker 1: bigger ones. The corn As have been very lucky. Oh
Speaker 1: my god, it's gotta be. Yeah, So seven and a half,
Speaker 1: like I'll be on the Commanders maybe a Bible of
Speaker 1: chalk and talk chatting to be in one of our five.
Speaker 1: But there's just a lot of dogs out like this week,
Speaker 1: so I get if it's about one of our five,
Speaker 1: but seven and a half that's hard to pass on.
Speaker 1: So with Seattle plus nine and a half, yeah that's fair.
Speaker 1: But at the same time, like heine Keys shown us
Speaker 1: something these last couple of weeks, do you know he's
Speaker 1: been a trainer. Rock all Right, Eagles plus five and
Speaker 1: a half right now against the Cowboys? Which one is this?
Speaker 1: A Simon says, was this a big balls? Are we
Speaker 1: making an executive decision? It's one of those for this game. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: it's if anyone out there you can still grab the six,
Speaker 1: you grab the six obviously for the Eagles. Um, this
Speaker 1: is gonna be a huge, hugely debated game. Like me
Speaker 1: and Chad, this is gonna be a guaranteed bet on
Speaker 1: Dallas for us. When this game opened and Hurts was healthy,
Speaker 1: this was ain't no brainer bet on taking Dallas here.
Speaker 1: They had a horrible loss. He's had an incredible win.
Speaker 1: Not incredible, but just a really guts you win. Where
Speaker 1: that that Bears game that was such a letdown spot
Speaker 1: that you would think, Okay, Eagles are gonna get all
Speaker 1: the public love in the world because no one's gonna
Speaker 1: get why Eagles team is an underdog to this Dallas
Speaker 1: team at home. But it just made sense this was
Speaker 1: gonna be a good matchup for this Cowboys team at home.
Speaker 1: How can we not take Eagles. I agree it's a
Speaker 1: big step down from j Dalen Hurts, but We've already
Speaker 1: seen Minshew kind of be in this situation before. Last year,
Speaker 1: he came in and played against the Giants. The Eagles
Speaker 1: won that game and he played well. I think he
Speaker 1: threw four for two yards at two passing touchdowns, like
Speaker 1: a QB rating of nineteen. Eagles are just really good,
Speaker 1: Like they're all around are just really good. They have
Speaker 1: good receivers. Dallas Goddard's coming back this week. This is
Speaker 1: gonna be such a great letdown spot for this Eagles
Speaker 1: team in the sense that, yeah, I know it's Dallas week.
Speaker 1: This is usually the game they lose, Like we've usually
Speaker 1: split with Dallas. I love the Eagles in this position,
Speaker 1: like like the fact that they're this big underdog. Now
Speaker 1: the coach is already wearing the underdog hat, like just
Speaker 1: getting the guys fired up out. Everyone's already counting them
Speaker 1: out because Hurts is out. We've already seen all the
Speaker 1: players talk about it the next manten up and now
Speaker 1: this this morning, Uh Sirianni said he's not counting Hurts out.
Speaker 1: He said he met with the trainers and they said
Speaker 1: he heals differently than aust He could be playing this week. Sure,
Speaker 1: that could just be simple smokes. You know, it doesn't
Speaker 1: matter us though. We're getting a good number. So to me,
Speaker 1: if you can still grab the six, you grab it.
Speaker 1: But it's just another game. I mean, you can't avoid, right, Chad.
Speaker 1: It's an overreaction to an injury on a team that
Speaker 1: there's a reason the I mean hurts is incredible Minshew.
Speaker 1: Isn't that horrible? Is he three or four points worse? Yes?
Speaker 1: But is he six seven points worse? No? And that's
Speaker 1: just an overreaction by the public. I also feel like
Speaker 1: Um Gardner Minshew in one game is different than Gardner
Speaker 1: Minshew as your starting quarterback. Gardners in one game is
Speaker 1: a straight out baller. Love Yeah, Like that's the mentality
Speaker 1: one of him. The one game. Doing sciences, Simon says,
Speaker 1: Eagles plus six. By the way, that the luck rankings
Speaker 1: that he had gotten from Nick Giffen crack producing by
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell to get this while we're alive. Biggest luck
Speaker 1: differential of twenty four this week bears thirty Buffalo six.
Speaker 1: So the luck differential of the Bear, the luck differential.
Speaker 1: The next biggest one, Titans Houston. The next biggest one
Speaker 1: also a game that we're going to talk about Green
Speaker 1: Bay Miami eighteen reminder any differential that is sixteen or
Speaker 1: more covering it clip this season. Atlanta, Baltimore, Indie Chargers,
Speaker 1: New England, Cincinnati are the next three, all above ten.
Speaker 1: So the Lucked rankings are sort of complimenting everything we've
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Speaker 1: get back to the show. Raiders, Steelers, Steelers three point
Speaker 1: favorites getting the money too, By the way, that's me.
Speaker 1: I'm on it like it's one of these games I
Speaker 1: bet earlier in the week when it was opened at
Speaker 1: one opened it, it went to to bet it two
Speaker 1: and a half. Bet it No. Now I'm just waiting
Speaker 1: the public will come in on the Raiders and hopefully
Speaker 1: they'll get me back back down to two and a half.
Speaker 1: It's just a classic spot. You're taking a Pittsburgh team
Speaker 1: outdoors in a freezing cold temperature against an indoor team
Speaker 1: from the West Coast. That I mean, you can say
Speaker 1: their car usually has let downs on these kind of spots.
Speaker 1: So um looking at this game. Chat. If the Pittsburg
Speaker 1: kind of had such a huge win against Carolina, I
Speaker 1: probably would be more in on this and make this
Speaker 1: one of our five. But you know, this is just
Speaker 1: a spot between two teams that a field goal is right.
Speaker 1: But that's why I didn't get why this game was
Speaker 1: plus one. Pittsburgh deserves that respect here, especially at home
Speaker 1: against the Raiders, team that historically does not perform well outdoors.
Speaker 1: So um, yeah, like like like Pittsburgh two and a
Speaker 1: half the three, that's where I just I'll just wait.
Speaker 1: I just wouldn't get that number. It's just such a
Speaker 1: key number you might as well wait and hope it
Speaker 1: comes back down to two and a half, just because
Speaker 1: the public will. They'll take the Raiders. That's gonna be
Speaker 1: a tease team everything. It's a plus three dog at
Speaker 1: home in a freezing chili game between two teams that
Speaker 1: are pretty much a coin flip. So um, if you're
Speaker 1: like sitting there, you're just like, well, I want to
Speaker 1: go through with the Raiders. Honestly cannot fault you because
Speaker 1: I think that's exactly what the number should be. I
Speaker 1: feel like in this game, Kenny Pickett's coming back, you
Speaker 1: definitely want to wait, Like I think this will go
Speaker 1: down to two and a half. They were seeing the
Speaker 1: tickets come in on the Raiders. People don't know any better. Um,
Speaker 1: give it a minute, let it breathe. You don't have
Speaker 1: to bet everything. There are games with the lines are moving, right,
Speaker 1: you're saying, Simon says, Eagles are moving. We're gonna get
Speaker 1: to another game where the lines are moving. The Bears
Speaker 1: might be moving like some of the games we've talked about,
Speaker 1: like that Eagles one. I could see closing up four
Speaker 1: and a half. Like that that that blooned all up
Speaker 1: to six. It was just such an overreaction, totally Packers
Speaker 1: of the Dolphins. By the way, Matt Mitchell reminds us,
Speaker 1: we're onto the Sunday afternoon games beginning with the Packers
Speaker 1: and the Dolphins. No joke. Eleven am this morning, this
Speaker 1: line was at five and a half. I bet it
Speaker 1: at five and a half. It is at four and
Speaker 1: a half, and it is falling so fast, And if
Speaker 1: it had stayed at five and a half, it one
Speaker 1: would have been my executive decision. I still like it
Speaker 1: at four and a half. Yeah, I still like it
Speaker 1: a lot of four and half. It's classic. The team
Speaker 1: splits are just atrocious, like Miami. Their defense clearly something
Speaker 1: is wrong, Like they just keep giving up tons of
Speaker 1: yards every game. There's there's no stopping it. On the
Speaker 1: flips Green Bay. They know exactly what they are now, right.
Speaker 1: They're a team that crazy to say, but that kid Watson,
Speaker 1: it's kind of been a revelation for that team. Like
Speaker 1: the fact that Rogers has a guy he can have
Speaker 1: trust with has opened things up. We saw last last
Speaker 1: game of the running backs. That opens things up. When
Speaker 1: you have a receiver they can get downfield and they
Speaker 1: have to count for that. Where a J. Dill and
Speaker 1: Aaron Aaron Jones. That is a legit too edit monster
Speaker 1: and that's what we all expect to come of the year.
Speaker 1: They'd lean on but they had new receivers, so the
Speaker 1: teams were just stacking the box and Rogers couldn't really
Speaker 1: do anything earlier in the year. I mean, they figured
Speaker 1: they figured a lot out these last couple of weeks.
Speaker 1: Of me, if this was earlier in the season, we
Speaker 1: don't have a way different tune on Green Bay. We
Speaker 1: probably view them as team that's probably gonna make the playoffs.
Speaker 1: It's just a little too late for that. But at
Speaker 1: the same time, they still think they can get in.
Speaker 1: Like they're not taking anything off for Rogers is playing.
Speaker 1: He played this week. He says he's playing this week again.
Speaker 1: There's just there's just something about that Green Bay team
Speaker 1: where I'm not gonna lie to chat. When this first
Speaker 1: came out, I was like, nice, I'll buy the low
Speaker 1: in Miami here. This line will probably be three. I
Speaker 1: I was shocked it opened a five and a half
Speaker 1: and that gave me pause where I actually I didn't
Speaker 1: bet it because I was like, I'm way off on
Speaker 1: this line, But like you just talked about, it kind
Speaker 1: of makes more sense now when you're really thinking about it,
Speaker 1: where this is just a good matchup for a Green
Speaker 1: Bay team where Miami is good. I do expect they'll
Speaker 1: win this game. It will be a close game, like
Speaker 1: Miami's not the team we all thought they were like.
Speaker 1: That was a devastated road trip for them. They I
Speaker 1: was over the four Ninears. That was a scheduled boss
Speaker 1: with them playing that four Ninars team on the road.
Speaker 1: Miami got humbled really quick. The Chargers won. We were
Speaker 1: all the charges. We loved that number that was of
Speaker 1: three and a half. That was one of those where
Speaker 1: I was like, Okay, Miami will win this, but they're
Speaker 1: gonna lose by field goal. They lost that out right.
Speaker 1: They were desperate that Bills game, like they had that game,
Speaker 1: they had the ball, they were driving, they could have
Speaker 1: eight the clock up, kicked the field goal and that
Speaker 1: would have been game to two. I got flustered, he
Speaker 1: gave it up, he punted, Josh Song drove the field.
Speaker 1: They won. Like that's what's a difference seam than them
Speaker 1: in the Bills. So this Miami team, we'll love them
Speaker 1: next year. They're just not as good as a public
Speaker 1: proceds ums and the fact that this line is what
Speaker 1: it is kind of let you know what the public
Speaker 1: thinks of Green Bay. They're still not dying in all
Speaker 1: them where like I just said, I think we're still
Speaker 1: getting a good number here. This is gonna be one
Speaker 1: of our five debatable because being where the lines going,
Speaker 1: but a four and a half, I could be talking
Speaker 1: to playing this in the contest. Yeah, I kind of
Speaker 1: love this game. I feel like a lot of defensive
Speaker 1: have figured out what to do with the Dolphins receivers
Speaker 1: Jalen Waddle and Tyreek Hill and the the Packers. Their
Speaker 1: strength is their defensive secondary and their ability to jam receivers,
Speaker 1: which is what teams have been doing against the Dolphins
Speaker 1: the past few weeks. And look, we've talked about this.
Speaker 1: We've joked about it that we said a month ago
Speaker 1: it's time to start fading the Dolphins. That their upcoming
Speaker 1: schedule they were going to San Francisco. I think it
Speaker 1: was the Chargers. They were in Buffalo and we went
Speaker 1: three on that road trip. We faded them twice and
Speaker 1: we wrote it with him against Buffalo. Yeah, and so um,
Speaker 1: you know, I feel like we got a pretty good
Speaker 1: beat on this team. And I do think the Packers
Speaker 1: are a little bit like the Jacks, Like you made
Speaker 1: a really good point the Jazz, like they needed some
Speaker 1: time to get to the season. And now we love them.
Speaker 1: You know, other people love them, the Packers and one
Speaker 1: of those teams where they're on the upswing. And like
Speaker 1: their defense has been getting a lot better the last
Speaker 1: six weeks. One of the top six defenses in the
Speaker 1: NFL of the past six weeks. It was the past
Speaker 1: and they're not gonna stop in the run. But the
Speaker 1: Dolphins don't run. So I love it. And just the
Speaker 1: the only worry now with us backing and Dolphin series,
Speaker 1: the fact that they do play obviously better at home.
Speaker 1: We saw that Week one they won seven at home
Speaker 1: Week one past fard later in the season, we do
Speaker 1: you meet you Ron Cleveland. Cleveland went down to Miami.
Speaker 1: Miami won thirty nine, the sevent team. They had a
Speaker 1: bye week, then they were at home against Houston. They
Speaker 1: were up thirty and nothing at halftime. So we've we've
Speaker 1: seen them domine have explosive performances against bad teams. I
Speaker 1: just don't know if Green Bay is that bad. Like
Speaker 1: I don't know if I put them in the same
Speaker 1: category as those two defenses in Houston and Cleveland where
Speaker 1: those defenses have been struggling, like that's green Bay for
Speaker 1: the most part. Their defensive woes have kind of been
Speaker 1: figured out here down the road. So, um, we don't
Speaker 1: need him a win, just keep it close. And I
Speaker 1: think that's where we're getting here with this number. The
Speaker 1: Broncos are on the road, they're visiting the Rams. There
Speaker 1: two point underdogs. Uh tickets out in the Broncos money
Speaker 1: on the Rams. No thoughts on this game. You guys
Speaker 1: are psychos if you're betting this, I guess. I guess
Speaker 1: Broncos because they have a great defense, but not no
Speaker 1: real read for me bucks nine point? Am I reading
Speaker 1: that right? No six point favorites on the road at
Speaker 1: the Cardinals once again, another game where it's just like,
Speaker 1: I get what the NFL is doing. All these games
Speaker 1: look so good for Christmas Sunday Slate, but just absolute stinkers.
Speaker 1: I guess I'll bet on it because it's the it's
Speaker 1: the Sunday game on Christmas, and it's something to watch
Speaker 1: and I love a good home dog. But no, we're
Speaker 1: gonna read on this. It's like just two bad teams
Speaker 1: that you know, it means more to the Buccaneers, so
Speaker 1: that's why I guess they're getting a bunch of points here.
Speaker 1: But I'll take six points with the home doog. I
Speaker 1: guess all I can say is thank god it's NBA
Speaker 1: games on Sunday, because like these are going to be
Speaker 1: stinkers of games. I want to watch that Packers, that
Speaker 1: Packers Dolphins games after that. Switching over to to the end,
Speaker 1: that's basically it Monday Night Football. The Los Angeles Chargers
Speaker 1: are going to visit the Indianapolis Colts. The Indianapolis Colts
Speaker 1: are four point underdogs at home against a Chargers team
Speaker 1: that we have sworn we will never bet on as favorites.
Speaker 1: We will never bet on them as favorites on the road,
Speaker 1: the Indianapolis Colts will be my executive decision. Colts plus
Speaker 1: four the choice between the unthinkable and the impossible with
Speaker 1: its decision. I love it. Jen nailed. It's like we
Speaker 1: hated that Tennessee game. We kept saying, if it's three,
Speaker 1: you have to bet Tennessee the Chargers. Just if they win,
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter the opponent, doesn't know how bang up
Speaker 1: or crappy opponent is, there will be three points somehow,
Speaker 1: Like that's I just this team. I cannot wait for
Speaker 1: Shampaign to be the coach next year of this Chargers team,
Speaker 1: Like that's just the Herbert talent is out of this world,
Speaker 1: like that threat. Yeah, the thirdy ad of Mike Williams.
Speaker 1: I mean I watched in a loop like twenty times.
Speaker 1: It's like this guy is the ultimate freak arm town.
Speaker 1: So yeah, Colts embarrassing loss at home, it's the Chargers
Speaker 1: team that. Yeah, they keep winning like they're they're a
Speaker 1: team that they're playing for the playoffs. Do we think
Speaker 1: they're gonna win this game? Yeah, because the Colts are
Speaker 1: terribly coached and they lose every game. But the Colts
Speaker 1: keep this one close. Like this is where we love
Speaker 1: the Colts team. I mean, the only fear is it's
Speaker 1: a prime time game. We've we've seen Matt Ryan in
Speaker 1: prime time. It's it's not good. But man, there's every
Speaker 1: time to buy low on a cold team, as low
Speaker 1: as it's gonna get. Like they're the laughing stock right
Speaker 1: now football. Um yeah, love love the Colts, like Chad,
Speaker 1: Like Chad said this, If he didn't make this his play,
Speaker 1: I was gonna make a mind grabbed the four now
Speaker 1: just because I do see it going to three and
Speaker 1: a half. This is just an inflated line. It shouldn't
Speaker 1: be moving this second three, I see it moving down
Speaker 1: to three and a half. It's going up or down
Speaker 1: down to three and a half. Okay, So yeah, like
Speaker 1: that's just an inflated line like that. I just said,
Speaker 1: it's one of those we have you have to bet
Speaker 1: because it's just a smart number. It's Chargers team that
Speaker 1: they play games close. We know exactly what the Colts
Speaker 1: want to do. The Colts want to run the ball.
Speaker 1: What's the Charger's biggest weakness. It's against the run. That's
Speaker 1: why these teams that aren't that good like Tennessee can
Speaker 1: stay in a game the whole time. Because if you
Speaker 1: just get Herbert off his rhythm, he can't perform. It's
Speaker 1: the it is a weird thing. Like the fact that
Speaker 1: we scored fourteen points last week, that's kind of how
Speaker 1: he is. Like he can just get If he gets
Speaker 1: in a rhythm, you're dead. You're done. If he doesn't
Speaker 1: get in a rhythm, it's a wonky game the whole time.
Speaker 1: That's kind of how the Chargers played. That's exactly what
Speaker 1: the Colts want to do. Like, that's how the Colts thrived,
Speaker 1: especially in this position at home, everyone's kind of them out.
Speaker 1: So me and Chad will be one of ten people
Speaker 1: watching this game rooting for the Colts, but just a
Speaker 1: smart number to play, just like the Patriots. It's like
Speaker 1: it doesn't feel good, but it's a game we have
Speaker 1: to kind of bet. Right now, our foxhold is Pats
Speaker 1: plus three and a half. Our Simon says is Eagles
Speaker 1: plus five and a half. I did not see any
Speaker 1: six is available. The exact decision is Colts plus four.
Speaker 1: The games we are leaning towards right now Bears nine
Speaker 1: and a half, Paths three and a half. Washington is
Speaker 1: at seven and a half. Right now, the Packers are
Speaker 1: on the list of four and a half, but we'll
Speaker 1: see what the contest says. We like the Colts at four,
Speaker 1: the Eagles at five and a half, all dogs. Right now,
Speaker 1: we're waiting. We're going to set an action network line
Speaker 1: change alert for Minnesota minus three. We're waiting on Carolina
Speaker 1: plus three, seeing if we can get Caroline at three.
Speaker 1: And I like Seattle nine and a half. We're going
Speaker 1: to see if we can convince each other of that.
Speaker 1: There's just so many of their dogs though, you know,
Speaker 1: that's that's the hardest part. We're gonna bet it either way. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you know, really really fun, really going to be a
Speaker 1: great weekend for betting. We will narrow it down more
Speaker 1: on Thursday. As a reminder, if you want to hear
Speaker 1: the Favorites full day early, you can listen live on AMP.
Speaker 1: You just download the free AMP app and follow at
Speaker 1: the Favorites. We're back recording live again this Thursday Am,
Speaker 1: and then a special early recording next Tuesday at ten
Speaker 1: am Eastern. And I want to thank everybody for the
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Speaker 1: from the Volume podcast Network. I am Chad and Aleman.
Speaker 1: He is Simon Hunter. Our producer is Matt Mitchell. You
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