1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:03,720 Speaker 1: It's the Favorites Podcast presented by Fandoel. It might be cold, 2 00:00:03,760 --> 00:00:06,200 Speaker 1: but the sports calendar is heating up, and there's no 3 00:00:06,320 --> 00:00:09,600 Speaker 1: better place to get in on the action than FanDuel. 4 00:00:09,680 --> 00:00:11,880 Speaker 1: I love betting with fandel because They're app is safe, 5 00:00:11,880 --> 00:00:14,200 Speaker 1: secure and easy to use, and when I win, I 6 00:00:14,320 --> 00:00:18,480 Speaker 1: get paid fast. And FanDuel is now live in Maryland. 7 00:00:19,000 --> 00:00:21,400 Speaker 1: So use promo code Favorites and download the FanDuel app 8 00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:25,240 Speaker 1: today to make every moment more this football season. 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Redline is one eight eight nine 21 00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:10,959 Speaker 1: called one eight hundred five to two four seven zero 22 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:15,959 Speaker 1: zero in Wyoming, or visit www Dot one Gambler dot 23 00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:28,280 Speaker 1: net in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast 24 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 1: from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chat Milman, Chief 25 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:36,399 Speaker 1: Content Officer of the Action Network. It is week sixteen 26 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:39,680 Speaker 1: of the NFL season, three weeks left in the regular season. 27 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:42,080 Speaker 1: As a reminder, if you want to hear the Favorites 28 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:44,400 Speaker 1: of Full Day Early, you can listen live on AMP. 29 00:01:44,480 --> 00:01:48,160 Speaker 1: You just download the free AMP app and follow at 30 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:51,440 Speaker 1: the Favorites where you can see our upcoming schedule. We're 31 00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:57,000 Speaker 1: back recording live again this Thursday a m and then 32 00:01:57,040 --> 00:02:00,800 Speaker 1: a special early recording next Tuesday the seventh at ten 33 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:05,200 Speaker 1: am Eastern. We do prize giveaways Thursday night coverage. It's 34 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:08,400 Speaker 1: a lot of fun on AMP. I am joined as 35 00:02:08,440 --> 00:02:11,800 Speaker 1: I am in every single episode by my co host, 36 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:20,799 Speaker 1: my companion, my bff, Michael Padre professional better Simon Hunter. Yeah, 37 00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 1: it was that not the best sports weekend of the year. Brother, 38 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:29,079 Speaker 1: I don't know, it's debatable. Holy to Molly, Holy holy Holy. 39 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:36,360 Speaker 1: The World Cup was so insane, Like I can't believe 40 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:39,280 Speaker 1: we had to do our show. Convinced me in the 41 00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:42,400 Speaker 1: middle of the World Cup. Thank god the timing worked 42 00:02:42,400 --> 00:02:45,160 Speaker 1: out that we went live right as the as the 43 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:49,920 Speaker 1: game went to halftime, dude. And then the rest of 44 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 1: the football day, that Jags game, the Tennessee game, the 45 00:02:55,600 --> 00:03:00,880 Speaker 1: Patriots Raiders game like it dude. Yeah, and the Saturday 46 00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:04,799 Speaker 1: of the cold I mean, look, we were in the 47 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:07,760 Speaker 1: middle of all of it. Um, we got a lot 48 00:03:07,800 --> 00:03:10,520 Speaker 1: to talk about. We will basketball, I mean, all the sports. 49 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 1: It was just a great We will. Of course, as 50 00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:17,960 Speaker 1: we do, we will get to our foxhold. Uh, we 51 00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 1: will do the son and says we will do the 52 00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:26,040 Speaker 1: exact decision. We will start to narrow down the board. Um, 53 00:03:26,120 --> 00:03:30,480 Speaker 1: it is worth reviewing. I must say it is worth reviewing. 54 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 1: Last week, Um voxhall was Bears plus nine nailed it. 55 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:38,120 Speaker 1: Simon says, Jack's plus four and a half nailed it, 56 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 1: exact decision, could plus four didn't even sweat it. Uh uh, 57 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:48,000 Speaker 1: big balls, Washington Commanders minus four and a half. We 58 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:50,480 Speaker 1: will get to it. And then Simon doubled down on 59 00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 1: Washington for Scooch Roulette Washington minus four half that went 60 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 1: with the Jacks plus four and a half. We're going 61 00:03:57,400 --> 00:04:01,640 Speaker 1: to talk about this Washington game. UM. I know what 62 00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:03,560 Speaker 1: it feels like to be you right now, to go 63 00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:06,600 Speaker 1: all in on a team, have them break your heart 64 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 1: like that. Um, and uh, it hurts. It hurts a lot. 65 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 1: I want to get to some stats around this game, 66 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:19,719 Speaker 1: because it turns out, according to our luck rankings, you 67 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:21,839 Speaker 1: were on the right side. But as we all know, 68 00:04:22,720 --> 00:04:24,719 Speaker 1: the right side is the winning side. I want to 69 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:27,400 Speaker 1: read a text that I sent to you and Matt 70 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 1: Mitchell on UH the other day because the Colts game 71 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 1: was so insane and then all of a sudden we've 72 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:42,599 Speaker 1: got uh the Bears game that we had, the Jack 73 00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:46,840 Speaker 1: seam that we had, I wrote Sunday afternoon. Again, as 74 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:49,440 Speaker 1: is our custom, we don't text in the middle of 75 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:53,400 Speaker 1: these things because that MUSHes everything. We didn't like. Not 76 00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 1: once did we text each other on Saturday when we 77 00:04:57,839 --> 00:05:00,920 Speaker 1: had the Colts four and a half and they were 78 00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:02,920 Speaker 1: up thirty three nothing in the first half. We didn't 79 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:06,240 Speaker 1: text once, not a single time, because we're better than that. 80 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:11,080 Speaker 1: We're professionals. I texted ho home weekend Colt's heart attack 81 00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:14,560 Speaker 1: jags w gives us a win today because we had 82 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:20,200 Speaker 1: him in the contest. Keeps our division future alive. Lions 83 00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:24,120 Speaker 1: win clinches our overseason win total. On the Lions, we 84 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 1: had six and a half there now at seven plus 85 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 1: the Bears cover miracle. We had him in the contest 86 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 1: and the Bears must now win outright the rest of 87 00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:36,280 Speaker 1: the year. They must win out the rest of the 88 00:05:36,360 --> 00:05:40,320 Speaker 1: year for to beat their season win total. We had 89 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:43,960 Speaker 1: him under five and a half. So in the contest 90 00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:46,880 Speaker 1: we went three and two. I'm gonna wrap up my 91 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:50,760 Speaker 1: soliloquy here. But in the contest, we had the Colts, 92 00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 1: we had the Jags, Um, we had the Bears. Uh. 93 00:05:57,200 --> 00:06:01,520 Speaker 1: We had Seattle. We lost that on Thursday night. And 94 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:05,479 Speaker 1: because Simon made us because Simon wasn't insistent, because Simon 95 00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:08,120 Speaker 1: knows what he's doing, all the things he says to me, 96 00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:11,560 Speaker 1: I'm a professional, you're stepping in it. I love the Giants, 97 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:14,599 Speaker 1: it doesn't matter. You're bullying me into taking the commanders 98 00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:16,359 Speaker 1: and we're putting them in the contest. You made me 99 00:06:16,400 --> 00:06:21,159 Speaker 1: feel small the entire week. We're even liking the commanders. Uh. 100 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:24,039 Speaker 1: For liking the Giants. You made us do it. I 101 00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:28,320 Speaker 1: said in the app this is all Simon, I said. 102 00:06:28,360 --> 00:06:29,680 Speaker 1: If it doesn't work out. At least it's going to 103 00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:35,120 Speaker 1: be content. It is now content. We went three and 104 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:38,279 Speaker 1: two instead of four and one. Yeah, the shame of 105 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:41,320 Speaker 1: having another winning a week? What is that number? Oh 106 00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:45,599 Speaker 1: no no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. 107 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:49,360 Speaker 1: You don't get to you don't get to be like, oh, 108 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:53,120 Speaker 1: I got it wrong, but we still won. You' even 109 00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:54,600 Speaker 1: watched the game, so you don't know what happened in 110 00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 1: the game for starters, well I do. But here's the thing, 111 00:06:57,279 --> 00:07:00,760 Speaker 1: and this is you got the recap from everyone. Listen, listen, listen. 112 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:03,719 Speaker 1: I didn't think you'd get so defensive, to be honest, 113 00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:05,840 Speaker 1: I thought you'd be more of a professional. This is 114 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:09,520 Speaker 1: me defensive and out right here, this is me defensive. Yeah. 115 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:11,640 Speaker 1: You know how much we love the luck rankings. We 116 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:13,680 Speaker 1: talked about it all the time. It is the best 117 00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:19,280 Speaker 1: measure of regression that has ever been invented. It is 118 00:07:19,320 --> 00:07:22,840 Speaker 1: the best measure of how you might want to think 119 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:28,080 Speaker 1: about betting the next week. For example, the top of 120 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:33,040 Speaker 1: the luck rankings last week, the Bears the Colts, Like, 121 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:35,640 Speaker 1: those were games that you wanted to be on. Right, 122 00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:40,880 Speaker 1: So when the week is over, uh, Sean Kerner, Nick Giffin, 123 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:43,280 Speaker 1: Billy Ward the guys who do the luck rankings for us. 124 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:51,000 Speaker 1: They asked the question in the luck Rankings slack, basically saying, 125 00:07:51,360 --> 00:07:57,520 Speaker 1: who do you guys think was the most unlucky team 126 00:07:57,640 --> 00:07:59,800 Speaker 1: this past week? And people threw it out there like 127 00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:05,680 Speaker 1: was it Tampa Bay, What was it Philly? Chicago? Um, 128 00:08:05,720 --> 00:08:13,160 Speaker 1: it was Washington Commanders. UM. There were two red zone turnovers, 129 00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:16,120 Speaker 1: they were dominant in yards per play. There was a 130 00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:19,880 Speaker 1: Giants defensive touchdown. Ron Rivera punted from the thirty five 131 00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:23,760 Speaker 1: uh six points off of two fifty yard field goals 132 00:08:24,640 --> 00:08:29,640 Speaker 1: uh for the Giants. UM. Washington missed a two point 133 00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:32,640 Speaker 1: conversion and an extra point. The expected score this game, 134 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:37,480 Speaker 1: according to our Metrics, was Washington ended up being New York. 135 00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:40,240 Speaker 1: So Simon, you were right. No, I mean, it's one 136 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:43,280 Speaker 1: of those things where it's like I took the it's 137 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:45,520 Speaker 1: just painfulness sentence that I lost a lot of money 138 00:08:45,520 --> 00:08:48,319 Speaker 1: on it, and uh, I'm not getting that back. So 139 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:52,079 Speaker 1: it was a great weekend of the sense that dogs 140 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:54,520 Speaker 1: go to overtime to die, and we had two dogs 141 00:08:54,559 --> 00:08:57,199 Speaker 1: go to overtime. They both covered for us. So I 142 00:08:57,240 --> 00:08:59,880 Speaker 1: already had felt up by using my luck, but the 143 00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:03,760 Speaker 1: Washington one, I honestly didn't feel like, Um, I did 144 00:09:03,760 --> 00:09:06,319 Speaker 1: not see a plane out that way, obviously, but it's 145 00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 1: an L. Like in the end of the day, like 146 00:09:07,720 --> 00:09:09,319 Speaker 1: you just said, it's a bad bed. It's an L. 147 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:12,240 Speaker 1: I am the last person ever go well, at least 148 00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:14,720 Speaker 1: I got good closing line value. Ever being that guy, 149 00:09:14,760 --> 00:09:16,520 Speaker 1: it's and l's and l. It doesn't matter if you 150 00:09:16,520 --> 00:09:17,960 Speaker 1: have a good closing line value or if you had 151 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:21,920 Speaker 1: a good reader, the luck doesn't work out. Um, the Giants, 152 00:09:21,960 --> 00:09:25,800 Speaker 1: they burned me all season and them, them and the Jaguars, 153 00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:28,960 Speaker 1: Like if the Jaguars hadn't covered me and Chad would 154 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:32,559 Speaker 1: have been three and nine in the contest on Jaguar games, 155 00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:35,480 Speaker 1: which is by far our worst record, but close to 156 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 1: that is the Giants we like. I just I've been 157 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:40,600 Speaker 1: burned by them all season. I can't stop it. Like 158 00:09:40,640 --> 00:09:43,800 Speaker 1: they're the luckiest team ever. It don't matter. They keep winning, 159 00:09:43,840 --> 00:09:47,280 Speaker 1: they keep covering. Um, So that was that was a 160 00:09:47,320 --> 00:09:49,040 Speaker 1: tough one. But at the same time, like you just said, 161 00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:52,439 Speaker 1: it's like, yeah, I was, I was hurt that night. 162 00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:54,280 Speaker 1: Then you wake up next morning, so like I'm already 163 00:09:54,280 --> 00:09:56,199 Speaker 1: onto week sixteen, what else can I do? That's kind 164 00:09:56,200 --> 00:09:58,080 Speaker 1: of the way the business works. I can't really mope 165 00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:02,000 Speaker 1: about it. Just gotta move on to next week Rondo Cincinnati. 166 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 1: One more thing about the luck rankings, which I love 167 00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:07,280 Speaker 1: and we've talked about and Signy you and I referenced 168 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:09,000 Speaker 1: them all the time. I'm convinced me. We rent them 169 00:10:09,000 --> 00:10:10,920 Speaker 1: in on green Dot daily all the shows that we do. 170 00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:15,320 Speaker 1: When there is a luck differential between two teams of 171 00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:20,760 Speaker 1: ten points or more this season, the underdog, meaning the 172 00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:26,079 Speaker 1: team that is more unlucky, covers at a fifty clip. 173 00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:29,000 Speaker 1: When there is a luck differential of sixteen or more, 174 00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:32,040 Speaker 1: the team that is more unlucky is covering it a 175 00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:35,080 Speaker 1: six clip. And by the way, we're not talking about 176 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:40,439 Speaker 1: five games like that second number. That's a a data 177 00:10:40,480 --> 00:10:45,640 Speaker 1: set of close to sixty games for this season alone, 178 00:10:46,640 --> 00:10:48,600 Speaker 1: a hundred games for the first one of ten plus, 179 00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:52,080 Speaker 1: So you know, it's just interesting numbers to me. We've 180 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:55,079 Speaker 1: created a new metric here that really defines value in 181 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:57,800 Speaker 1: a different way. I'm super excited about it, which we 182 00:10:57,840 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 1: talk all about it. It's another tool you just don't 183 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:02,120 Speaker 1: only bet it if it lines up with you. That 184 00:11:02,120 --> 00:11:04,120 Speaker 1: should give you more confidence back to your side and 185 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:08,120 Speaker 1: to the people that this weekend, told told me how 186 00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 1: meet how lucky meet Chad got because all these teams 187 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:14,120 Speaker 1: came from behind. Guys, there's obviously luck that plays into it. 188 00:11:14,360 --> 00:11:17,040 Speaker 1: We put in the work and for our new listeners. 189 00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:19,839 Speaker 1: Not even two years ago, me and Chad finished in 190 00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:22,920 Speaker 1: the top twenty and our pick contest. So that's gonna 191 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:24,600 Speaker 1: be two out of three years now that we're gonna 192 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:26,280 Speaker 1: make the money. Because met cha can go owen five 193 00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:31,200 Speaker 1: every next three weeks, we're in the money. Yeah, dude, 194 00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:33,199 Speaker 1: I had no idea I was gonna ask you. I 195 00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:35,520 Speaker 1: mean we're behind, We're not that far off the leader, 196 00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:37,520 Speaker 1: That's what I mean, Like we're up there. This year 197 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:38,959 Speaker 1: is better than that year. I mean that year we 198 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:41,880 Speaker 1: finished I say top twenty, Well we tied for twenty, 199 00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:44,640 Speaker 1: so we're probably twenty six. This year we're looking for 200 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:47,160 Speaker 1: top ten. So yeah, it's tough. I've seen I wish 201 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:49,040 Speaker 1: we won four and one, Chad, but three and two 202 00:11:49,040 --> 00:11:50,400 Speaker 1: and on a week a lot of people out of 203 00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:52,360 Speaker 1: down week. It was good because the public had a 204 00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:54,680 Speaker 1: go week. I mean we saw that the public with 205 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:56,640 Speaker 1: super giant side, but that was the public side. The 206 00:11:56,640 --> 00:11:59,560 Speaker 1: public side was huge on the Bengals they were down 207 00:11:59,640 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 1: what was that seventeen nothing? They came all the way back. So, uh, 208 00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:04,680 Speaker 1: some guys got hurt trying to go with the sharp 209 00:12:04,760 --> 00:12:06,640 Speaker 1: side this week, and that's kind of how it goes, 210 00:12:06,679 --> 00:12:09,280 Speaker 1: like you're not gonna always always been the right side. 211 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:11,040 Speaker 1: And that BEng was one of the perfect example. That 212 00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:13,839 Speaker 1: number sat at three and a half all week. Really 213 00:12:13,840 --> 00:12:16,400 Speaker 1: smart groups were all over that, They're all over Washington. 214 00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 1: They got slaughtered. So that's just there there. You never 215 00:12:19,960 --> 00:12:23,560 Speaker 1: know when you make these bets, you never know. I 216 00:12:23,640 --> 00:12:26,240 Speaker 1: was gonna ask you for an update. We went three 217 00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:29,920 Speaker 1: and two. I think we had fallen. We had lost 218 00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:33,040 Speaker 1: a little ground before even though we went four and one. 219 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:35,920 Speaker 1: So where are we will place your we in? What's 220 00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:38,160 Speaker 1: our total number right now? Well, the first place got 221 00:12:38,200 --> 00:12:40,559 Speaker 1: finally lost. You lost three games, which was nice because 222 00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:42,280 Speaker 1: again he had been on this crazy rue. You knew 223 00:12:42,280 --> 00:12:45,200 Speaker 1: it was gonna eventually come back around. That's just gambling. Um. 224 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:48,960 Speaker 1: So luckily for us, we're four back, four back, and 225 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:52,200 Speaker 1: what place are we in? I have to pop it up. 226 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:54,480 Speaker 1: I bet you we're like we probably moved into the 227 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:58,240 Speaker 1: top fifty, top forty, and yeah, so when we did 228 00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:01,440 Speaker 1: it two years ago, there was three thousand people, so 229 00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:03,480 Speaker 1: like that was obviously a little easier. This year it's 230 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:05,960 Speaker 1: over four thousands, so it's just that much harder to 231 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:07,959 Speaker 1: make it back in the money. Um, the fact that 232 00:13:08,000 --> 00:13:10,640 Speaker 1: we already locked that up three weeks to go, chat's 233 00:13:10,640 --> 00:13:14,920 Speaker 1: pretty crazy, brother, just two losing weeks, we're in the money. 234 00:13:15,400 --> 00:13:19,959 Speaker 1: We're in the money. Um, all right, you know what, then, 235 00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:23,400 Speaker 1: it's fucking rock and roll. Let's close this out. Let's 236 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:25,280 Speaker 1: close it out with three winning weeks and a lot 237 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:28,040 Speaker 1: of fun. And I was sad. I was just thinking 238 00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:31,439 Speaker 1: to myself, we only have seven weeks of football left 239 00:13:31,600 --> 00:13:33,839 Speaker 1: and seven Sundays left. When I just said it was 240 00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:36,760 Speaker 1: weeks sixteen and we had three weeks weeks left, I 241 00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:41,200 Speaker 1: was super bummed. I'm loving It's been a good weekends. 242 00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:45,200 Speaker 1: And you know, we'll talk about the Jacks a little bit. 243 00:13:45,280 --> 00:13:49,560 Speaker 1: But my uh older son is home from college and 244 00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:54,760 Speaker 1: a friend came home with him, and my son was 245 00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:56,880 Speaker 1: that my older son was out, my younger son was out, 246 00:13:57,240 --> 00:14:00,040 Speaker 1: and so my kid's friend was watching the jackson A 247 00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:04,679 Speaker 1: game with me, and they're from Jacksonville, and so it 248 00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 1: was insane to watch the end of that game. And 249 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:11,960 Speaker 1: I'm going to miss these Sunday moments so much. Um, 250 00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:19,240 Speaker 1: all right, let's talk about the Jackson the Jets. Thursday 251 00:14:19,320 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 1: Night Jets are It's like you're seeing lines on both sides, 252 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:29,240 Speaker 1: basically both teams being underdogs by bye bye one plus 253 00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:33,520 Speaker 1: one plus one and a half. Zach Wilson, this is 254 00:14:33,560 --> 00:14:36,960 Speaker 1: a hard one. Yeah, I'm legally opting myself out. I can't. 255 00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:39,840 Speaker 1: I can't make a non biased pick here where the 256 00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 1: numbers said the Jets. The smart side is the Jets. 257 00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:45,840 Speaker 1: You always take the Jets here. I love the Jaguars. 258 00:14:45,880 --> 00:14:48,200 Speaker 1: I love everything about them. I love what they've become. 259 00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:50,560 Speaker 1: They're my top three favorite team the bet this year. 260 00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:52,000 Speaker 1: I'm just I think of all of the money I've 261 00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:54,480 Speaker 1: lost them in this year. I love them. I love 262 00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:57,040 Speaker 1: this team. I've loved Trevor Lawrence. I feel like a 263 00:14:57,120 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 1: proud dad seeing them grow up this season, like they 264 00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:02,680 Speaker 1: just they've changed so much as years gone along. You 265 00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:04,680 Speaker 1: just see the confidence building where even when they're down 266 00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:06,960 Speaker 1: in the games like they were this past weekend, they 267 00:15:07,040 --> 00:15:08,680 Speaker 1: just never give up. And I love I love that 268 00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:11,400 Speaker 1: about teams. So the smart pick is the Jets. You're 269 00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:13,760 Speaker 1: taking the Jets at home in a short week after 270 00:15:13,800 --> 00:15:16,240 Speaker 1: a really bad, crushing loss at home against the Jaguars 271 00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:18,560 Speaker 1: team that just had the one of the season for them, 272 00:15:18,600 --> 00:15:20,520 Speaker 1: Like that was an insane way to win a game 273 00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:23,200 Speaker 1: at home. So DA really can't make a pick on 274 00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:25,520 Speaker 1: this one. So whoever the dog is maybe all tease, 275 00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:28,280 Speaker 1: I'm up with someone to throw that into play, But 276 00:15:28,320 --> 00:15:31,000 Speaker 1: as we sit here right now, I just I'm so biased. 277 00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:33,320 Speaker 1: I just want to take the Jaguars despite the numbers 278 00:15:33,320 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 1: saying you take the Jets. I just can't give out 279 00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:37,160 Speaker 1: a player and make a play right now. I feel 280 00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:39,280 Speaker 1: like with this Jaguars team, we were just too early. 281 00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:43,520 Speaker 1: Um we we believed in Doug Peterson so much. We're 282 00:15:43,520 --> 00:15:46,320 Speaker 1: both big fans of Doug Peterson. We thought he his 283 00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:51,800 Speaker 1: sort of learning his teachings would would imbue themselves into 284 00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:54,440 Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence much sooner than they than they did, and 285 00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 1: sort of the chemistry would would be there faster. Because 286 00:15:57,400 --> 00:15:59,520 Speaker 1: I also had a pretty big bet on Trevor Lawrence 287 00:15:59,560 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 1: seventy two want to lead the league in touchdown passes, 288 00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:03,960 Speaker 1: and I felt like on Sunday he was trying to 289 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:06,120 Speaker 1: make up all the ground at one time, you know, 290 00:16:06,640 --> 00:16:10,760 Speaker 1: and he'll still finish top five. Like he's got twenty 291 00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:14,000 Speaker 1: four right now. Uh Kirk Cousins as twenty four, he's 292 00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:17,000 Speaker 1: behind Geno Smith at six and Josh Allen, Joe Burrow 293 00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:20,680 Speaker 1: and the Homes with both all thirty and north of thirty. 294 00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:24,200 Speaker 1: He's gonna end up having an incredible year. Yeah. Well, 295 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:26,240 Speaker 1: I told you. The hardest thing about what I'm doing 296 00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:29,080 Speaker 1: is I'm we're not seeing anything we when we do 297 00:16:29,160 --> 00:16:32,920 Speaker 1: this podcast in May in June, all I have is 298 00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:35,600 Speaker 1: just the what I saw last year, and then all 299 00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:38,120 Speaker 1: the data on paper on on your computer, right, that's 300 00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:40,440 Speaker 1: what I have to go off of. So the Jaguars 301 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:43,000 Speaker 1: on paper, I love that company there because they had 302 00:16:43,040 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 1: all this talent and then you look at their schedule. Okay, 303 00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:48,800 Speaker 1: they had that week one loss to Washington, but then 304 00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:51,200 Speaker 1: they won twenty four nothing against the Colts. Then they 305 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:54,280 Speaker 1: won at the Chargers third eight to ten, and then 306 00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:56,400 Speaker 1: they went on the road. So again that's two huge 307 00:16:56,400 --> 00:16:58,960 Speaker 1: wins back to back. We were full on sucked. Then 308 00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:00,840 Speaker 1: then they went and played the Eagles on the road 309 00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:02,400 Speaker 1: and they lost that game with all those turnovers and 310 00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:04,879 Speaker 1: all those turnovers, they lost by like eight points. I 311 00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:08,280 Speaker 1: think it was like twenty one. That was like, oh 312 00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:10,640 Speaker 1: my god, they're for real, Like they just went toe 313 00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:12,160 Speaker 1: to toe and one of the best teams in football, 314 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:14,240 Speaker 1: and then they turned into a dumpers from here. They 315 00:17:14,320 --> 00:17:17,600 Speaker 1: lost to Houston the following week six thirteen to six, 316 00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:19,160 Speaker 1: and it just was a spiral there in the middle 317 00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:21,760 Speaker 1: of the season. So the fact that they, you know, 318 00:17:21,840 --> 00:17:24,480 Speaker 1: Doug Peterson righted the ship after they lost five straight 319 00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:27,280 Speaker 1: games in the middle of the season and you know, 320 00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:30,119 Speaker 1: they've just been playing in these good close games. They 321 00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:33,480 Speaker 1: had to blow out obviously against Detroit Um. But yeah, 322 00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:35,880 Speaker 1: the Jaguar is one of those teams where it makes 323 00:17:35,880 --> 00:17:37,439 Speaker 1: me feel good, like we love them coming to the 324 00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:41,240 Speaker 1: year we have. I mean, I know, Chad, bet if 325 00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:42,800 Speaker 1: I have a lot of money, bet on them at 326 00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:48,040 Speaker 1: thirteen to one, twelve to one to win this division. Easy, easy, 327 00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:50,520 Speaker 1: easy time Now to take up position on Tennessee, like 328 00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:52,280 Speaker 1: no matter what, even if they want, if they lose 329 00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:53,879 Speaker 1: this game, that they have to beat Houston and then 330 00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:56,320 Speaker 1: it comes down to the final game with Tennessee. Those 331 00:17:56,320 --> 00:17:57,879 Speaker 1: are the That's what me and Chad talked about all 332 00:17:57,880 --> 00:18:00,480 Speaker 1: the time about taking positions that hedge out on since 333 00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:02,760 Speaker 1: a dream scenario like if you had gotten it earlier. 334 00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:05,000 Speaker 1: Even if you've got seven to one or eight to one, 335 00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:07,639 Speaker 1: it's it's easy three to one no matter what. When 336 00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:09,360 Speaker 1: they played Tennessee in the final week of the year, 337 00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:12,119 Speaker 1: So uh, you're right like that them in the lines, 338 00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:14,959 Speaker 1: those two making the playoffs, that would be just amazing 339 00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:16,359 Speaker 1: for us in the show, just because those are two 340 00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:18,800 Speaker 1: teams we really talked about a lot this past summer 341 00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:20,480 Speaker 1: and they've really come on here at the end of 342 00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:22,600 Speaker 1: the season. So, like I said, I'm too biased to 343 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:25,399 Speaker 1: make a logical pick on this game. That's why the 344 00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:28,800 Speaker 1: Lions Jets game was so hard last week, because like 345 00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:31,240 Speaker 1: we love the Lions, we've been in love with the Lions. 346 00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:33,119 Speaker 1: We pit on it. You went with your baby Detroit. 347 00:18:33,119 --> 00:18:34,639 Speaker 1: I went in love Baby and the Jet Lyons, and 348 00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:38,679 Speaker 1: I was dead wrong. Yeah, exactly, all right, So we're 349 00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:41,440 Speaker 1: gonna move on from that one. These Saints are two 350 00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:44,720 Speaker 1: and a half point underdogs to the Browns in Cleveland. 351 00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:47,120 Speaker 1: We've talked a lot about this already on Green Dot Daily, 352 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:50,080 Speaker 1: so hopefully people catch that show at noon daily in 353 00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:54,000 Speaker 1: the Action Network, Gap on YouTube, etcetera. There is Arctic 354 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:59,639 Speaker 1: weather crossing the US should be snow should be a 355 00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:04,480 Speaker 1: been below zero, should be uh fifteen to thirty mile 356 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:09,400 Speaker 1: winds um it is the lowest total in a decade, 357 00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:11,919 Speaker 1: down to thirty one and a half. I kind of 358 00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:15,560 Speaker 1: like the Browns here. Wow, yes, I mean a full 359 00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:18,280 Speaker 1: slatest Saturday on Christmas Eve. Chat isn't again. We're just 360 00:19:18,280 --> 00:19:20,520 Speaker 1: just a magical month run we've had your sport. I 361 00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:23,360 Speaker 1: should remind people this is a Saturday game. Yeah, it's 362 00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:28,120 Speaker 1: Christmas Eve. Yeah, I'm with you on Cleveland. We gotta 363 00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:29,880 Speaker 1: follow them. Wait and see what the deals with Nick Chubb. 364 00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:34,080 Speaker 1: Nick Chubb apparently it's not practicing today. We need him 365 00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:36,719 Speaker 1: to practice. We need we need Nick Chubb. We are 366 00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:38,919 Speaker 1: at me and Chat are not Watson backers. We just 367 00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:41,199 Speaker 1: we do not think he looks right. I think the 368 00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:43,000 Speaker 1: public is with us on that. What they put up 369 00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:46,720 Speaker 1: thirteen points last week against the Ravens. We all know 370 00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:49,720 Speaker 1: Flamar played in that game. Ravens are gonna win that game. 371 00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:53,320 Speaker 1: So yeah, not not don't know really what to do 372 00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:56,080 Speaker 1: with this one. Um, I'm with you, Chat, like I 373 00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:58,480 Speaker 1: wanted to take Cleveland against the Saints team that we've 374 00:19:58,480 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 1: seen all year. They've struggled when they've on outdoor, especially 375 00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:04,240 Speaker 1: with Andy Dalton. So um, Cleveland were probably the play, 376 00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:05,320 Speaker 1: but I just need to know what the deals with 377 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:08,000 Speaker 1: the child. All right, Well, look, I'll look forward to 378 00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:11,040 Speaker 1: a text on Saturday morning. Um, we'll be doing convince 379 00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:13,480 Speaker 1: me Saturday morning and so hopefully we'll get an update 380 00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:15,560 Speaker 1: at that point and we can decide after the show 381 00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:18,400 Speaker 1: for putting it in. Falcons seven and a half point 382 00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:22,520 Speaker 1: underdogs on the road at the Ravens also a Saturday game. 383 00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:26,080 Speaker 1: Huge Saturday slate, obviously a lot of games being played 384 00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:29,879 Speaker 1: on Saturday, smaller slate on Sunday, Christmas Day. The Ravens 385 00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:32,359 Speaker 1: are seven half point favorites. Indicates to me people expecting 386 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:34,720 Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson to play. I have no opinion on this game. 387 00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:40,600 Speaker 1: It would be a pass pass right move on Bengals Patriots. 388 00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:43,720 Speaker 1: Now the rubber meets the road. We have been on 389 00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:46,800 Speaker 1: a street with the Bengals. We have loved them. We 390 00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:51,000 Speaker 1: played them consistently in weird spots where they were road favorites. 391 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:54,880 Speaker 1: We didn't do it this past weekend, but we didn't 392 00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:57,080 Speaker 1: bet the We didn't put the box either. Now they're 393 00:20:57,080 --> 00:20:59,120 Speaker 1: three and a half point favorites on the road. At 394 00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:04,280 Speaker 1: the Patriots. Yeah, yeah, just like last week then it 395 00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:06,520 Speaker 1: was like painful we stayed away from it was seventeen 396 00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:08,480 Speaker 1: nothing or seventeen to three, and I was kicking myself. 397 00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:11,480 Speaker 1: But it's like, of course the Tampa's controlling this game 398 00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:13,920 Speaker 1: and doing whatever they want, and the Bengals are just 399 00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:16,760 Speaker 1: laying a total leg I don't know what to deal 400 00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:19,840 Speaker 1: with this, Chad, like, this is a game I've already 401 00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:22,359 Speaker 1: bet a game I would love to make the Simon says, 402 00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:24,400 Speaker 1: bet but I care about our fans, and it's like 403 00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:27,119 Speaker 1: how much how many people are actually gonna listen to 404 00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:30,120 Speaker 1: us chat like this is? I think a lot there 405 00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:32,080 Speaker 1: is going to listen to us. We're really good at this, 406 00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:35,959 Speaker 1: I know, but I'm just I feel I feel what 407 00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:38,119 Speaker 1: they're what they're gonna say. It's like I can't do it. 408 00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:40,320 Speaker 1: Where it's like you have to do it. If you've 409 00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:43,119 Speaker 1: been betting these ugly dogs with us all season, you 410 00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:45,560 Speaker 1: have to bet this. You have to bet the Patriots, 411 00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:48,640 Speaker 1: who just embarrassed themselves and then are gonna be made 412 00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:51,240 Speaker 1: fun of all week ring against a Bengals team that 413 00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:55,399 Speaker 1: is I don't even describe it. They're one of the 414 00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:59,000 Speaker 1: greatest public teams ever forbetting. There are eleven a t 415 00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:01,720 Speaker 1: s last all weeks, and the public has been betting 416 00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:04,240 Speaker 1: them basically that whole time. I think the only time, 417 00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:07,639 Speaker 1: I mean you really went against the grain was in 418 00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:10,399 Speaker 1: that Tennessee match up where Tennessee was at home. They 419 00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:13,120 Speaker 1: were an underdog at the time. People still thought Tennessee 420 00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:14,680 Speaker 1: was better than they were and they were all over it. 421 00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:17,280 Speaker 1: And since he just once again, they came, they came 422 00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:19,200 Speaker 1: in and they won. They've just been that team this year. 423 00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:21,960 Speaker 1: We have no choice. But this is a game we 424 00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:24,840 Speaker 1: always have to play, so uh, maybe I won't make it. 425 00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:26,600 Speaker 1: Time says you want to make a foxhole because this 426 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:29,680 Speaker 1: is this is truly it's either that are big balls, 427 00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:31,760 Speaker 1: like it's one of those games we all have to 428 00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:33,600 Speaker 1: bet because this is what we've done all years. I 429 00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:37,320 Speaker 1: feel like we've got a pretty good contender for big balls. Okay, 430 00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:41,120 Speaker 1: do you know what I'm talking about. I mean, there's 431 00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:44,679 Speaker 1: like three games this week that take huge balls, all right, So, uh, 432 00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:49,160 Speaker 1: I feel like there's a contender for big balls. If 433 00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:50,960 Speaker 1: you want to make it. Assignment says, go ahead, But 434 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:53,399 Speaker 1: it doesn't feel like a Simon says to me the 435 00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:56,560 Speaker 1: spirit of Simon says is right now because the line 436 00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:59,120 Speaker 1: is going to move. I do think this could move though, 437 00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:01,840 Speaker 1: like pros are gonna be all over this, but um yeah, 438 00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:04,199 Speaker 1: let's let's just make it a foxhold on, you know me, 439 00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:06,879 Speaker 1: regardless of what's going on. I'm a foxhole guy. I 440 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:08,960 Speaker 1: commit to a team, I commit to a city. I'm 441 00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:13,040 Speaker 1: a foxhole guy. Jus, I hate this. I fucking hate 442 00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:17,200 Speaker 1: this game. I know, no, it's awful. I have more 443 00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:19,520 Speaker 1: confidence in this than I did with the Bucks last week, 444 00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:22,280 Speaker 1: where like the Bucks, I couldn't see the road map, 445 00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:24,080 Speaker 1: but the number didn't make sense. Where this number does, 446 00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:26,760 Speaker 1: Like I literally have this number three Like last week 447 00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:28,200 Speaker 1: with the Bucks game, I couldn't touch it because we 448 00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:29,840 Speaker 1: said all the time, why is this number not six? 449 00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:33,720 Speaker 1: And that just spooked me. Just a weird number. This 450 00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:36,639 Speaker 1: number makes sense, like since he yes, they're very good, 451 00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:39,280 Speaker 1: they also have weaknesses and some of those weakness is 452 00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:41,760 Speaker 1: going to be exploited by a Patriots team that's desperate. 453 00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:45,760 Speaker 1: So um, it just feels like I hate to be like, oh, 454 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:47,960 Speaker 1: this is such a smart play. This really does feel 455 00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:50,119 Speaker 1: like a smart number, Like you just take this number 456 00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:52,399 Speaker 1: and one of those games if you can't handle it, 457 00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:54,200 Speaker 1: just don't watch it because it's not gonna be fun. 458 00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:57,560 Speaker 1: Patriots plus three and a half. We're going to the Foxhole. 459 00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:02,960 Speaker 1: Let's go the Buffalo Hills, going to visit the Monsters 460 00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:08,480 Speaker 1: of the Midway covering machines. Bears are eight and a 461 00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:12,080 Speaker 1: half point underdogs at FanDuel. There are other places where 462 00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:13,600 Speaker 1: you can get nine and a half. I just want 463 00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:17,560 Speaker 1: to be clear on that. Other legal places dogs between 464 00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:21,359 Speaker 1: three and ten this year, covering at a fifty eight 465 00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:28,440 Speaker 1: percent clip. You're getting a bad team less than win 466 00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:33,560 Speaker 1: percentage against a good team more than win percentage. The 467 00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:38,480 Speaker 1: Dogs in this scenario cover at clip the past six years. 468 00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:42,200 Speaker 1: No reason not to take the Bears at eight and 469 00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:44,080 Speaker 1: a half or nine and a half if you can 470 00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:48,080 Speaker 1: get it. Yeah, And we just we keep seeing these 471 00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:52,520 Speaker 1: teams that have good offenses called Chicago and when they 472 00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:54,560 Speaker 1: had to keep up fields keeps up. I mean Miami 473 00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:56,880 Speaker 1: came in, they put up thirty five points, fields put 474 00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:59,400 Speaker 1: up thirty two points. The Troy came in, they put 475 00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,560 Speaker 1: up the one points, fields put up thirty points. We 476 00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:04,960 Speaker 1: saw the Eagles, they came in, they put up twenty five, 477 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:08,080 Speaker 1: put up twenty it's just I can't explain it. It 478 00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:10,880 Speaker 1: doesn't make sense. I watched the whole game. The kid 479 00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:13,120 Speaker 1: would run in for twenty yards, get a first down, 480 00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:15,560 Speaker 1: take a sack, so then it'll be he'll be second 481 00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:17,800 Speaker 1: and twenty seven, and they'll run it again for another 482 00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:20,600 Speaker 1: fifth yard to get another first down. It's just it's 483 00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:24,280 Speaker 1: literally recess recess football, and there's no game playing, nothing 484 00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:27,480 Speaker 1: teams can do to prepare for it. Um, he is 485 00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:30,280 Speaker 1: the freak. But on the flip side, the Bills have 486 00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:32,080 Speaker 1: just been caught by the books. I mean, we could 487 00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:34,480 Speaker 1: finally get caught here at chad By back in the Bears. 488 00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:36,239 Speaker 1: But it's another thing that's it's got us to this 489 00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:38,679 Speaker 1: point fading. Josh Allen is a big favorite. In his 490 00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:40,840 Speaker 1: last nine games, he's one in eight A T s 491 00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:43,640 Speaker 1: and and you can look at the numbers, it could 492 00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:45,080 Speaker 1: be two and seven because it depends. You got that 493 00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:48,080 Speaker 1: Brown's number, Remember that that Brown's got moved from Buffalo 494 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:50,959 Speaker 1: to Detroit, and that number is all wonky all week. Um, 495 00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:55,320 Speaker 1: the Bills are just a good team. But are they 496 00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:57,639 Speaker 1: the great team that everyone keeps putting them on this 497 00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:00,159 Speaker 1: pedestal to be? No? I mean they just they led 498 00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:02,359 Speaker 1: teams in these games. We've seen it time and time again. 499 00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:04,639 Speaker 1: Like Miami, they're in control of that game in the 500 00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:06,800 Speaker 1: first half. Miami comes out in the second half, plays 501 00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:09,960 Speaker 1: them tough. Josh Allen becomes a superhero that he is, 502 00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:12,359 Speaker 1: and he leads his team on these victories. So I 503 00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:14,920 Speaker 1: think the Bills are rightly rightly so a top three 504 00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:17,640 Speaker 1: team the f C. But their team that gets caught 505 00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:19,719 Speaker 1: in these big spreads. And that's what the books keep doing. 506 00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:22,320 Speaker 1: They keep having big numbers. The public are happy to 507 00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:23,840 Speaker 1: do it. They're happy to bet them, they're happy to 508 00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:26,920 Speaker 1: throw them in teasers, and we keep getting free points 509 00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:29,080 Speaker 1: here chat. So the snumbers should probably be seven and 510 00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:31,000 Speaker 1: a half. I mean, like you just had Fantal it's 511 00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:33,320 Speaker 1: eight and a half. Shop around it's nine and a half. 512 00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:36,399 Speaker 1: So hopefully it grows nine a half everywhere and maybe 513 00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:38,600 Speaker 1: in ten. That'd be amazing because we didn't even talked 514 00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:40,440 Speaker 1: about this is gonna be a freezing game. They're calling 515 00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:44,760 Speaker 1: from mine's eleven degree weather. Josh Allen, he is incredible. 516 00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:46,560 Speaker 1: We just saw the Bills give up two hundred yards 517 00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:48,640 Speaker 1: to Miami on the ground. That's what the Bears want 518 00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:50,400 Speaker 1: to do. They want to run the ball. We saw 519 00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:52,680 Speaker 1: them run last week all over the Eagles, and it's 520 00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:54,639 Speaker 1: the same thing with this matchup. So a lot of 521 00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:57,480 Speaker 1: things just point to this Bears game. So it's does 522 00:26:57,480 --> 00:26:59,040 Speaker 1: it feel a little too easy? A little bit chat, 523 00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:00,760 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna alloe to you. We've had two weeks 524 00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:03,200 Speaker 1: now where um, you know, Denver the week before was 525 00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:05,719 Speaker 1: the biggest bet team as a big dog that covered. 526 00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:08,439 Speaker 1: Last week, the Bears were the most pet team against 527 00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:10,440 Speaker 1: the Eagles that covered. So the pros they've been over, 528 00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:13,800 Speaker 1: We've been all over these big spreads at home. Uh. 529 00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:15,800 Speaker 1: I can't avoid it. It's just such a big number. 530 00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:18,679 Speaker 1: I just can't not take this number. It is strange, right, 531 00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:21,720 Speaker 1: it does feel like, wait a second, why are they 532 00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:24,879 Speaker 1: still making this number so big knowing everything we know 533 00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:29,160 Speaker 1: about the end of the season, especially with this Bill's team, 534 00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:31,760 Speaker 1: but also just when you're getting the over inflation on 535 00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,720 Speaker 1: a team that's really good, and maybe it's people just 536 00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:37,440 Speaker 1: back in the Bills and the books are giving the 537 00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:41,720 Speaker 1: wise guys that the point, half, a point whatever because 538 00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:42,840 Speaker 1: they know all the money is going to come in 539 00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:50,320 Speaker 1: on the Bills. Anyways, it's kind of crazy alert how 540 00:27:50,320 --> 00:28:12,520 Speaker 1: many quarterbacks. Have you received brutal anyone takings to do 541 00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:24,240 Speaker 1: something about this album? All right, Minnesota Vikings are three 542 00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:27,960 Speaker 1: and a half point favorites at Vandel hosting the New 543 00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:31,199 Speaker 1: York Football Giants. I know it's a bad number. I 544 00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:36,360 Speaker 1: know we've been mocking Kirk Cousins all year long. This 545 00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:40,200 Speaker 1: feels like a Viking spot. Yeah, I'll wait and see 546 00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:41,840 Speaker 1: on it, because I'm with you, like like four and 547 00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:44,040 Speaker 1: a half five, I was like, nice, it's a good 548 00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:46,520 Speaker 1: number on the Giants, Like you just said, they got 549 00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:50,160 Speaker 1: crazy lucky last week, and I don't know the public. 550 00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:52,640 Speaker 1: I'm excited to see what the public does with this number, 551 00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:55,840 Speaker 1: just because, like you just said, it feels like the 552 00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:58,240 Speaker 1: no brainer play here is you just take the Giants 553 00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:00,920 Speaker 1: like they're good on the road. The Vikings they win 554 00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:02,760 Speaker 1: games when they win, they win close games, So you 555 00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:04,000 Speaker 1: just take the three and half kind of the same 556 00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:09,400 Speaker 1: reason we took the Colts last week. Um, but Minnesota here, offensively, 557 00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:12,480 Speaker 1: they just match up really well with this Giants team. Um, 558 00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:16,360 Speaker 1: and there's no Daniel Jones had big players. I couldn't. 559 00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:18,280 Speaker 1: I cannot believe that fourth and nine completion he had 560 00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:20,520 Speaker 1: against Washington was insane, like he does have these moments 561 00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:24,080 Speaker 1: where he really does step up. But man, that's uh, 562 00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:26,600 Speaker 1: that's that's tricky chat. I want to join you on it, 563 00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:29,200 Speaker 1: but I can't. I can't make a move on this 564 00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:30,760 Speaker 1: one yet. I'd have to hear what other guys are doing, 565 00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:33,200 Speaker 1: because to me, it feels I feel like you just 566 00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:35,959 Speaker 1: said it where it's like I blindly wanted to take 567 00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:38,080 Speaker 1: the Giants. The number has moved a lot, like it's 568 00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:40,120 Speaker 1: all the way down to three and a half in 569 00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:42,160 Speaker 1: the last two days, So I'm gonna wait and see 570 00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:45,320 Speaker 1: on it. Well, look, it may continue to go down 571 00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:49,840 Speaker 1: because the number opened at five. The money is on 572 00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:55,120 Speaker 1: the Giants right now, So what's that? That just seems 573 00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:56,680 Speaker 1: like the pros came in early, like you said, it 574 00:29:56,720 --> 00:30:00,880 Speaker 1: opened up for five. Yeah, that money is no money 575 00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:02,440 Speaker 1: coming in on the Giants at three and a half. 576 00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:04,840 Speaker 1: That came in on the Giants at five and four 577 00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:07,120 Speaker 1: and a half and four. But it's possible if it 578 00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:09,840 Speaker 1: gets to three, I'd be comfortable taking the vikings here 579 00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:12,680 Speaker 1: me as well, Like if if we honestly, like you know, 580 00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:16,480 Speaker 1: our context does a weird where they split the difference 581 00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:18,120 Speaker 1: with a half. So if it's two and a half. 582 00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:20,080 Speaker 1: It's like, how can we avoid that. We're getting them 583 00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:22,680 Speaker 1: under a field goal at home the team that's kind 584 00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:25,280 Speaker 1: of a no brainer. So now we got the Detroit 585 00:30:25,360 --> 00:30:29,320 Speaker 1: Lions who cashed our season win total ticket. We love 586 00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:32,680 Speaker 1: this team, we have loved them since May. We want 587 00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:35,560 Speaker 1: to marry this team. They are two and a half 588 00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:41,000 Speaker 1: point favorites over the over the Panthers on the road. 589 00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:47,360 Speaker 1: That's a tough one. Yeah, it was actually gonna be 590 00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:49,400 Speaker 1: My assignment says that if it was at three, I 591 00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:51,160 Speaker 1: was gonna tell people you gotta grab it right now 592 00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:52,880 Speaker 1: because it's gonna go back to two and a half. 593 00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:55,720 Speaker 1: But it's sitting at two and a half and money 594 00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:59,760 Speaker 1: is pouring in on Detroit right now, So yeah, I'll 595 00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:01,680 Speaker 1: tell people just wait, that's what I'm not gonna make it. 596 00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:04,040 Speaker 1: Time said, you can just wait and hopefully next show 597 00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:06,160 Speaker 1: will be at three for you. But to me, it's 598 00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:09,080 Speaker 1: like a play you have to make. Carolina at home 599 00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:13,880 Speaker 1: with that defense after getting embarrassed the week before, the 600 00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:15,880 Speaker 1: three games before that at home, their defense had really 601 00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:18,000 Speaker 1: shown up and dominated. They did have a bad week 602 00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:19,520 Speaker 1: last week. That was just one of those games that 603 00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:22,080 Speaker 1: where it's like trying to overreact to it, take too 604 00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:24,560 Speaker 1: much from it. They still have a chance to win 605 00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:26,920 Speaker 1: their division. So if you're like, well Caroline is gonna quit, 606 00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:29,360 Speaker 1: they're not like their in their mind they can still 607 00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:31,720 Speaker 1: win this division, which I also love for this matchup 608 00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:34,840 Speaker 1: where they're desperate. Carolina is gonna be a very desperate team. 609 00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:37,800 Speaker 1: Catch on three at home, I gets a Troy team that, man, 610 00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:39,719 Speaker 1: are they feeling good? Like they've just been on this 611 00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:42,960 Speaker 1: crazy run now it's the second of it's the back 612 00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:44,880 Speaker 1: to back outdoor thing as well for me, where it's 613 00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:46,880 Speaker 1: like all right, back to back outdoor on the road 614 00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:51,640 Speaker 1: for golf, Hell yeah, win this game. I moved them 615 00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:53,960 Speaker 1: way up my power rating board because, like, to me, 616 00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:58,080 Speaker 1: this is the kind of game you win. I put 617 00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:03,040 Speaker 1: them right up there, like right behind at Eagles, Vikings, Cowboys, 618 00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:06,000 Speaker 1: forty Niners group where it's like they deserve to be 619 00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:08,560 Speaker 1: in the playoffs. This the Troy team is legit because 620 00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:10,720 Speaker 1: this is a trap game for all the temference purposes, 621 00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:12,800 Speaker 1: Like this is kind of those games where you we're 622 00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:14,600 Speaker 1: gonna go on the road, They're gonna split two road games. 623 00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:16,960 Speaker 1: They weren't gonna win win both because you just need 624 00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:18,200 Speaker 1: to either have like an m v P or an 625 00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:21,000 Speaker 1: MVP defense, just a high level talent to do that. 626 00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:23,400 Speaker 1: They do that. That shows me a lot because this 627 00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:25,240 Speaker 1: is just such a bad spot for them after such 628 00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:27,960 Speaker 1: an emotional win. The two like a missfield goal man. 629 00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:29,680 Speaker 1: That must have been such a fun ride home for 630 00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:33,160 Speaker 1: them that flight. Everything still feeling good all week. Caroline 631 00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:35,640 Speaker 1: is a complete opposite side. They just got absolutely blown 632 00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:37,960 Speaker 1: out and was the same reason people are so heavy 633 00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:40,600 Speaker 1: on Pittsburgh the week against Carolina. Right, Carolina had a 634 00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:43,719 Speaker 1: huge win on the road, then they came home. They 635 00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:45,440 Speaker 1: kind of laid an egg against the Pittsburgh team that 636 00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:49,160 Speaker 1: was just more desperate. So, um yeah, interesting Number one 637 00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:51,719 Speaker 1: one stand three. There's one book that sells a three 638 00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:54,640 Speaker 1: sadly route sponsored by that show that that company. So 639 00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:56,680 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna make it, Simon says, because we don't 640 00:32:56,680 --> 00:32:58,640 Speaker 1: have the three right now. I was gonna say, there 641 00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:00,080 Speaker 1: is a book that has a three out there, and 642 00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:03,040 Speaker 1: I don't think. I think in the spirit of our 643 00:33:03,080 --> 00:33:09,360 Speaker 1: partnership with Fando, we should not make that the play. Uh, 644 00:33:09,600 --> 00:33:13,920 Speaker 1: here's an interesting game. The Seahawks are on the road 645 00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:17,600 Speaker 1: at the Chiefs. Seahawks run the ball really well. Chiefs 646 00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:21,040 Speaker 1: do not do not defend against the run very well. 647 00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:24,560 Speaker 1: It's going to be one of these games that has 648 00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:32,719 Speaker 1: crazy wins potential. Snow, we're still on Saturday games six below. Yeah, huge, 649 00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:34,880 Speaker 1: Like the total. You should talk about the total for 650 00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:37,360 Speaker 1: a second. Started a fifty, now down to forty eight 651 00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:40,640 Speaker 1: and a half. But the spread is nine nine and 652 00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:44,520 Speaker 1: a half. What's your take? Yeah, when we can start 653 00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:46,640 Speaker 1: with the total open at fifth, sit down a four 654 00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:48,920 Speaker 1: and a half, I would still take that. It's already 655 00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:50,560 Speaker 1: talked about earlier today. It's going to be a nice 656 00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:53,840 Speaker 1: bowl there. It's supposed to be negative six with win, 657 00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:57,040 Speaker 1: with win blowing. Um, I've say it's Tuesday. Things could 658 00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:59,520 Speaker 1: always change, but that colds not go anywhere like that 659 00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:02,080 Speaker 1: colds him down. It's gonna be there. Obviously. The big 660 00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:05,240 Speaker 1: deal is the wind. If it's a windy game, no doubt, 661 00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:07,800 Speaker 1: like smash that under. I would just bet the internet. 662 00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:09,120 Speaker 1: I just gotta have the number in case it does 663 00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:11,279 Speaker 1: move way down. Then you could play in the middle 664 00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:12,799 Speaker 1: two you can get to go to the the middle opportunities. 665 00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:15,759 Speaker 1: So looking at this matchup, though, I feel like you 666 00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:19,880 Speaker 1: just nailed it where it's probably gonna be a completely 667 00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:21,880 Speaker 1: different game plan that we used to for both these teams. 668 00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:23,480 Speaker 1: It's just gonna be hard to be a past heavy 669 00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:26,000 Speaker 1: team when you have the weather as it is. And 670 00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:28,480 Speaker 1: we already know the Seahawks their biggest weakness is the run. 671 00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:31,239 Speaker 1: Team's gonna run against them, and he Reid's gonna do that. 672 00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:34,040 Speaker 1: He's happy to make those kind of adjustments, but versa 673 00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:35,520 Speaker 1: like the Seahawks. You just said it. It's like the 674 00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:38,920 Speaker 1: Kenneth Walker thing. I knew that was an important important 675 00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:41,279 Speaker 1: to Gino. We've kind of seen these last couple weeks, 676 00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:42,719 Speaker 1: but they can't get a run game going and the 677 00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:47,800 Speaker 1: offense seems to flutter. So I can't do it. I 678 00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:50,600 Speaker 1: cannot back you know again, even though I love this 679 00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:55,200 Speaker 1: number and it's so massive, it's just we say it 680 00:34:55,200 --> 00:34:56,839 Speaker 1: all the time, not that he just turned back into 681 00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:58,719 Speaker 1: a pumpkin, but a little bit. It seems like the 682 00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:01,160 Speaker 1: defenses of kind figure it out what he likes to 683 00:35:01,160 --> 00:35:02,440 Speaker 1: do and what he doesn't like to do. And we've 684 00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:05,200 Speaker 1: seen him defended differently these last couple of weeks, and 685 00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:08,640 Speaker 1: they've struggled. I mean, they went from leading the division 686 00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:11,640 Speaker 1: to being almost eight percent guaranteed to make the playoffs too. 687 00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:14,279 Speaker 1: They're probably not gonna make the playoffs unless they steal 688 00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:17,120 Speaker 1: a game or two here. So um, interesting how quick 689 00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:19,120 Speaker 1: things flipped for the Seahawks team where everything was just 690 00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:22,640 Speaker 1: so well and even their fan base was like, yeah, 691 00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:24,800 Speaker 1: we could use that high draft pick to get players 692 00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:26,239 Speaker 1: to support you know, we don't need to take a 693 00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:29,719 Speaker 1: quarterback too. It's completely flipped of yeah, maybe maybe gives 694 00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:30,920 Speaker 1: you know, a one year deal, but we need a 695 00:35:30,960 --> 00:35:32,759 Speaker 1: draft a quarterback and that that is kind of how 696 00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:35,920 Speaker 1: it goes where. Um, you know, he's a great, great felon, 697 00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:38,560 Speaker 1: he's a great backup. Is he one of the thirty 698 00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:40,640 Speaker 1: two best? They should be an every week starter? That's 699 00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:42,600 Speaker 1: that's up for debate because it seems like defense is 700 00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:45,920 Speaker 1: kind kind of figure him out. So I usually love 701 00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:49,920 Speaker 1: to just take blindly against the Chiefs. Is a big dog. Um. 702 00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:51,520 Speaker 1: I could maybe get talked into it, but as you 703 00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:54,279 Speaker 1: sit here right now, you know, just disappointed me so 704 00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:57,240 Speaker 1: much last game, like there the four yards were begging 705 00:35:57,280 --> 00:35:59,080 Speaker 1: for that game to be stolen from them, and he 706 00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:01,000 Speaker 1: couldn't complete drives. I mean they drove down there, they 707 00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:04,640 Speaker 1: got two field goals if those are touchdowns one game, 708 00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:06,759 Speaker 1: but it wasn't because you know, it just was not 709 00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:09,880 Speaker 1: capitalized in their red zones. So, um, I just I 710 00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:12,960 Speaker 1: can't make a bet yet on this one. I love 711 00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:15,879 Speaker 1: the Seahawks here right now. Yeah, that's the right I mean, 712 00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:18,560 Speaker 1: it's the right player. Just my home was a big favorite, 713 00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:22,960 Speaker 1: never really works out for him, and like the Seahawks, 714 00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:28,160 Speaker 1: they've got guys who can cover. So it just feels 715 00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:31,800 Speaker 1: to me like schematically on the field and the number 716 00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:35,360 Speaker 1: the Seahawks on the right side. The worry is Congino 717 00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:38,160 Speaker 1: keep up though. That's the worry right now because Gino 718 00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:41,120 Speaker 1: three weeks ago, no brainer. But these last couple of 719 00:36:41,160 --> 00:36:45,160 Speaker 1: weeks they've just been so bad offensively and even defensively. 720 00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:47,319 Speaker 1: But I do think the Cold want to gate some 721 00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:50,120 Speaker 1: of that, some of their weaknesses. But now you're right, 722 00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:53,560 Speaker 1: it's probably I probably talked myself into it, but right 723 00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:57,560 Speaker 1: now I just can't do it. All right, Well, uh, 724 00:36:57,600 --> 00:36:59,640 Speaker 1: we can always think about the Texans at plus five 725 00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:03,279 Speaker 1: and a half against the Titans, it stinks this is 726 00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:05,080 Speaker 1: gonna be our no brainer play you would have banged 727 00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:08,640 Speaker 1: up Tannehill forced his way back into the game last week. 728 00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:11,000 Speaker 1: I don't think he's gonna play like we've already seen 729 00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:14,359 Speaker 1: this number come down. I'm out, like we we've been 730 00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:17,399 Speaker 1: in this exact position before with the rookie QB in there. 731 00:37:17,920 --> 00:37:20,760 Speaker 1: Derrick Henry ran over me and Chat. I mean, Houston 732 00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:24,120 Speaker 1: got absolutely demolished by Derrick Henry the last time they played. 733 00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:26,719 Speaker 1: You just go through the history. Yeah it we're just 734 00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:28,919 Speaker 1: like a hundred and fifty yards against the Houston team. 735 00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:32,680 Speaker 1: Derrick Henry just for some reason dominates his team every time. 736 00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:36,640 Speaker 1: So Houston, if the season had started two weeks ago, 737 00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:38,520 Speaker 1: people would be looking at them as the top three team. 738 00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:41,279 Speaker 1: I mean they want why wire to wire with the 739 00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:43,279 Speaker 1: Dallas and then the same thing with the Chiefs, Like 740 00:37:43,960 --> 00:37:45,600 Speaker 1: love you Smith. I went from thinking he was a 741 00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:47,960 Speaker 1: joke to like, this guy gets his guys up, Like 742 00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:50,839 Speaker 1: he can keep this team focused at whatever they are? 743 00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:54,080 Speaker 1: What are? They won in twelve, one and thirteen. Pretty incredible, 744 00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:57,200 Speaker 1: But it feels like we missed the best of the 745 00:37:57,280 --> 00:37:59,239 Speaker 1: number here, Chat like, yeah, I'm with it that we 746 00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:01,799 Speaker 1: should probably be in Houston. But the fact that there 747 00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:03,840 Speaker 1: was seven and a half just this morning and yesterday, 748 00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:06,160 Speaker 1: it kind of kind of thinks we missed the best number. 749 00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:08,719 Speaker 1: I'm rushing through this a little bit. There's a lot 750 00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:11,799 Speaker 1: of games it's you know, but there's also just some 751 00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:14,879 Speaker 1: games that I'm dying to get to. Commanders plus seven 752 00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:17,600 Speaker 1: against the Niners is not one of them. Really, you 753 00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:20,480 Speaker 1: don't like that. I like the Commanders in the game. Yeah, 754 00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:23,279 Speaker 1: it's the right side, like you're like, the Niners are 755 00:38:23,320 --> 00:38:26,120 Speaker 1: so overinflated. Right to do when he's a big favorite 756 00:38:26,160 --> 00:38:28,840 Speaker 1: chain of hand, you always fail you them. Yeah, this 757 00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:31,480 Speaker 1: is the move. I'm with the Commanders. I think everyone 758 00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:32,719 Speaker 1: just has a little bit of a bad taste in 759 00:38:32,719 --> 00:38:34,920 Speaker 1: the mouth of them, even I bet you luck ran 760 00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:36,040 Speaker 1: because will come out. This will be one of the 761 00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:38,279 Speaker 1: bigger ones. The corn As have been very lucky. Oh 762 00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:41,680 Speaker 1: my god, it's gotta be. Yeah, So seven and a half, 763 00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:43,600 Speaker 1: like I'll be on the Commanders maybe a Bible of 764 00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:45,279 Speaker 1: chalk and talk chatting to be in one of our five. 765 00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:47,120 Speaker 1: But there's just a lot of dogs out like this week, 766 00:38:47,239 --> 00:38:49,120 Speaker 1: so I get if it's about one of our five, 767 00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:51,279 Speaker 1: but seven and a half that's hard to pass on. 768 00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:55,560 Speaker 1: So with Seattle plus nine and a half, yeah that's fair. 769 00:38:55,600 --> 00:38:57,640 Speaker 1: But at the same time, like heine Keys shown us 770 00:38:57,640 --> 00:38:59,520 Speaker 1: something these last couple of weeks, do you know he's 771 00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:03,759 Speaker 1: been a trainer. Rock all Right, Eagles plus five and 772 00:39:03,760 --> 00:39:08,360 Speaker 1: a half right now against the Cowboys? Which one is this? 773 00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:10,880 Speaker 1: A Simon says, was this a big balls? Are we 774 00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:16,920 Speaker 1: making an executive decision? It's one of those for this game. Yeah, yeah, 775 00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:19,040 Speaker 1: it's if anyone out there you can still grab the six, 776 00:39:19,080 --> 00:39:22,880 Speaker 1: you grab the six obviously for the Eagles. Um, this 777 00:39:22,920 --> 00:39:26,560 Speaker 1: is gonna be a huge, hugely debated game. Like me 778 00:39:26,640 --> 00:39:29,400 Speaker 1: and Chad, this is gonna be a guaranteed bet on 779 00:39:29,480 --> 00:39:33,040 Speaker 1: Dallas for us. When this game opened and Hurts was healthy, 780 00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:36,000 Speaker 1: this was ain't no brainer bet on taking Dallas here. 781 00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:40,200 Speaker 1: They had a horrible loss. He's had an incredible win. 782 00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:42,919 Speaker 1: Not incredible, but just a really guts you win. Where 783 00:39:42,960 --> 00:39:45,120 Speaker 1: that that Bears game that was such a letdown spot 784 00:39:45,640 --> 00:39:48,040 Speaker 1: that you would think, Okay, Eagles are gonna get all 785 00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:50,080 Speaker 1: the public love in the world because no one's gonna 786 00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:53,880 Speaker 1: get why Eagles team is an underdog to this Dallas 787 00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:56,520 Speaker 1: team at home. But it just made sense this was 788 00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:59,000 Speaker 1: gonna be a good matchup for this Cowboys team at home. 789 00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:02,880 Speaker 1: How can we not take Eagles. I agree it's a 790 00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:05,800 Speaker 1: big step down from j Dalen Hurts, but We've already 791 00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:09,000 Speaker 1: seen Minshew kind of be in this situation before. Last year, 792 00:40:09,400 --> 00:40:11,680 Speaker 1: he came in and played against the Giants. The Eagles 793 00:40:11,680 --> 00:40:13,319 Speaker 1: won that game and he played well. I think he 794 00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:16,600 Speaker 1: threw four for two yards at two passing touchdowns, like 795 00:40:16,600 --> 00:40:20,120 Speaker 1: a QB rating of nineteen. Eagles are just really good, 796 00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:22,360 Speaker 1: Like they're all around are just really good. They have 797 00:40:22,400 --> 00:40:26,360 Speaker 1: good receivers. Dallas Goddard's coming back this week. This is 798 00:40:26,400 --> 00:40:28,840 Speaker 1: gonna be such a great letdown spot for this Eagles 799 00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:31,320 Speaker 1: team in the sense that, yeah, I know it's Dallas week. 800 00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:33,640 Speaker 1: This is usually the game they lose, Like we've usually 801 00:40:33,640 --> 00:40:36,840 Speaker 1: split with Dallas. I love the Eagles in this position, 802 00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:39,160 Speaker 1: like like the fact that they're this big underdog. Now 803 00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:42,319 Speaker 1: the coach is already wearing the underdog hat, like just 804 00:40:42,360 --> 00:40:44,680 Speaker 1: getting the guys fired up out. Everyone's already counting them 805 00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:46,880 Speaker 1: out because Hurts is out. We've already seen all the 806 00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:49,160 Speaker 1: players talk about it the next manten up and now 807 00:40:49,239 --> 00:40:53,399 Speaker 1: this this morning, Uh Sirianni said he's not counting Hurts out. 808 00:40:53,600 --> 00:40:55,319 Speaker 1: He said he met with the trainers and they said 809 00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:58,680 Speaker 1: he heals differently than aust He could be playing this week. Sure, 810 00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:01,240 Speaker 1: that could just be simple smokes. You know, it doesn't 811 00:41:01,239 --> 00:41:03,560 Speaker 1: matter us though. We're getting a good number. So to me, 812 00:41:03,600 --> 00:41:05,200 Speaker 1: if you can still grab the six, you grab it. 813 00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:08,920 Speaker 1: But it's just another game. I mean, you can't avoid, right, Chad. 814 00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:11,680 Speaker 1: It's an overreaction to an injury on a team that 815 00:41:12,520 --> 00:41:15,680 Speaker 1: there's a reason the I mean hurts is incredible Minshew. 816 00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:19,440 Speaker 1: Isn't that horrible? Is he three or four points worse? Yes? 817 00:41:19,480 --> 00:41:22,200 Speaker 1: But is he six seven points worse? No? And that's 818 00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:24,960 Speaker 1: just an overreaction by the public. I also feel like 819 00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:30,760 Speaker 1: Um Gardner Minshew in one game is different than Gardner 820 00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:35,440 Speaker 1: Minshew as your starting quarterback. Gardners in one game is 821 00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:39,200 Speaker 1: a straight out baller. Love Yeah, Like that's the mentality 822 00:41:39,239 --> 00:41:46,280 Speaker 1: one of him. The one game. Doing sciences, Simon says, 823 00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:49,640 Speaker 1: Eagles plus six. By the way, that the luck rankings 824 00:41:49,640 --> 00:41:52,480 Speaker 1: that he had gotten from Nick Giffen crack producing by 825 00:41:52,520 --> 00:41:55,640 Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell to get this while we're alive. Biggest luck 826 00:41:55,680 --> 00:42:01,280 Speaker 1: differential of twenty four this week bears thirty Buffalo six. 827 00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:06,520 Speaker 1: So the luck differential of the Bear, the luck differential. 828 00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:11,600 Speaker 1: The next biggest one, Titans Houston. The next biggest one 829 00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:15,120 Speaker 1: also a game that we're going to talk about Green 830 00:42:15,160 --> 00:42:20,279 Speaker 1: Bay Miami eighteen reminder any differential that is sixteen or 831 00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:25,400 Speaker 1: more covering it clip this season. Atlanta, Baltimore, Indie Chargers, 832 00:42:25,840 --> 00:42:29,560 Speaker 1: New England, Cincinnati are the next three, all above ten. 833 00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:34,920 Speaker 1: So the Lucked rankings are sort of complimenting everything we've 834 00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:39,719 Speaker 1: been saying. 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Raiders, Steelers, Steelers three point 891 00:46:12,600 --> 00:46:16,480 Speaker 1: favorites getting the money too, By the way, that's me. 892 00:46:16,840 --> 00:46:18,360 Speaker 1: I'm on it like it's one of these games I 893 00:46:18,400 --> 00:46:20,080 Speaker 1: bet earlier in the week when it was opened at 894 00:46:20,080 --> 00:46:24,120 Speaker 1: one opened it, it went to to bet it two 895 00:46:24,160 --> 00:46:26,680 Speaker 1: and a half. Bet it No. Now I'm just waiting 896 00:46:26,719 --> 00:46:28,560 Speaker 1: the public will come in on the Raiders and hopefully 897 00:46:28,560 --> 00:46:30,719 Speaker 1: they'll get me back back down to two and a half. 898 00:46:30,760 --> 00:46:35,720 Speaker 1: It's just a classic spot. You're taking a Pittsburgh team 899 00:46:36,080 --> 00:46:40,480 Speaker 1: outdoors in a freezing cold temperature against an indoor team 900 00:46:40,680 --> 00:46:44,160 Speaker 1: from the West Coast. That I mean, you can say 901 00:46:44,280 --> 00:46:47,160 Speaker 1: their car usually has let downs on these kind of spots. 902 00:46:47,200 --> 00:46:52,200 Speaker 1: So um looking at this game. Chat. If the Pittsburg 903 00:46:52,280 --> 00:46:54,440 Speaker 1: kind of had such a huge win against Carolina, I 904 00:46:54,480 --> 00:46:56,640 Speaker 1: probably would be more in on this and make this 905 00:46:56,680 --> 00:46:59,319 Speaker 1: one of our five. But you know, this is just 906 00:46:59,560 --> 00:47:02,640 Speaker 1: a spot between two teams that a field goal is right. 907 00:47:02,719 --> 00:47:04,040 Speaker 1: But that's why I didn't get why this game was 908 00:47:04,040 --> 00:47:08,480 Speaker 1: plus one. Pittsburgh deserves that respect here, especially at home 909 00:47:08,920 --> 00:47:12,400 Speaker 1: against the Raiders, team that historically does not perform well outdoors. 910 00:47:12,400 --> 00:47:16,840 Speaker 1: So um, yeah, like like like Pittsburgh two and a 911 00:47:16,880 --> 00:47:19,560 Speaker 1: half the three, that's where I just I'll just wait. 912 00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:21,279 Speaker 1: I just wouldn't get that number. It's just such a 913 00:47:21,360 --> 00:47:23,279 Speaker 1: key number you might as well wait and hope it 914 00:47:23,320 --> 00:47:24,640 Speaker 1: comes back down to two and a half, just because 915 00:47:24,680 --> 00:47:26,520 Speaker 1: the public will. They'll take the Raiders. That's gonna be 916 00:47:26,600 --> 00:47:31,000 Speaker 1: a tease team everything. It's a plus three dog at 917 00:47:31,040 --> 00:47:33,640 Speaker 1: home in a freezing chili game between two teams that 918 00:47:33,680 --> 00:47:36,319 Speaker 1: are pretty much a coin flip. So um, if you're 919 00:47:36,400 --> 00:47:37,640 Speaker 1: like sitting there, you're just like, well, I want to 920 00:47:37,640 --> 00:47:40,439 Speaker 1: go through with the Raiders. Honestly cannot fault you because 921 00:47:40,440 --> 00:47:43,120 Speaker 1: I think that's exactly what the number should be. I 922 00:47:43,160 --> 00:47:46,920 Speaker 1: feel like in this game, Kenny Pickett's coming back, you 923 00:47:47,120 --> 00:47:50,000 Speaker 1: definitely want to wait, Like I think this will go 924 00:47:50,040 --> 00:47:52,239 Speaker 1: down to two and a half. They were seeing the 925 00:47:52,280 --> 00:47:56,239 Speaker 1: tickets come in on the Raiders. People don't know any better. Um, 926 00:47:56,640 --> 00:47:58,239 Speaker 1: give it a minute, let it breathe. You don't have 927 00:47:58,239 --> 00:48:00,879 Speaker 1: to bet everything. There are games with the lines are moving, right, 928 00:48:01,040 --> 00:48:04,399 Speaker 1: you're saying, Simon says, Eagles are moving. We're gonna get 929 00:48:04,400 --> 00:48:07,080 Speaker 1: to another game where the lines are moving. The Bears 930 00:48:07,160 --> 00:48:09,640 Speaker 1: might be moving like some of the games we've talked about, 931 00:48:09,640 --> 00:48:11,640 Speaker 1: like that Eagles one. I could see closing up four 932 00:48:11,680 --> 00:48:13,839 Speaker 1: and a half. Like that that that blooned all up 933 00:48:13,840 --> 00:48:18,120 Speaker 1: to six. It was just such an overreaction, totally Packers 934 00:48:18,160 --> 00:48:20,560 Speaker 1: of the Dolphins. By the way, Matt Mitchell reminds us, 935 00:48:20,560 --> 00:48:23,640 Speaker 1: we're onto the Sunday afternoon games beginning with the Packers 936 00:48:23,640 --> 00:48:28,360 Speaker 1: and the Dolphins. No joke. Eleven am this morning, this 937 00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:31,480 Speaker 1: line was at five and a half. I bet it 938 00:48:31,520 --> 00:48:33,640 Speaker 1: at five and a half. It is at four and 939 00:48:33,640 --> 00:48:37,200 Speaker 1: a half, and it is falling so fast, And if 940 00:48:37,239 --> 00:48:39,600 Speaker 1: it had stayed at five and a half, it one 941 00:48:40,480 --> 00:48:43,120 Speaker 1: would have been my executive decision. I still like it 942 00:48:43,120 --> 00:48:44,719 Speaker 1: at four and a half. Yeah, I still like it 943 00:48:44,719 --> 00:48:48,160 Speaker 1: a lot of four and half. It's classic. The team 944 00:48:48,280 --> 00:48:53,560 Speaker 1: splits are just atrocious, like Miami. Their defense clearly something 945 00:48:53,719 --> 00:48:55,440 Speaker 1: is wrong, Like they just keep giving up tons of 946 00:48:55,520 --> 00:48:59,600 Speaker 1: yards every game. There's there's no stopping it. On the 947 00:48:59,600 --> 00:49:03,440 Speaker 1: flips Green Bay. They know exactly what they are now, right. 948 00:49:03,640 --> 00:49:08,040 Speaker 1: They're a team that crazy to say, but that kid Watson, 949 00:49:08,600 --> 00:49:10,440 Speaker 1: it's kind of been a revelation for that team. Like 950 00:49:10,480 --> 00:49:12,239 Speaker 1: the fact that Rogers has a guy he can have 951 00:49:12,320 --> 00:49:15,239 Speaker 1: trust with has opened things up. We saw last last 952 00:49:15,239 --> 00:49:17,040 Speaker 1: game of the running backs. That opens things up. When 953 00:49:17,040 --> 00:49:18,600 Speaker 1: you have a receiver they can get downfield and they 954 00:49:18,600 --> 00:49:20,880 Speaker 1: have to count for that. Where a J. Dill and 955 00:49:20,920 --> 00:49:24,160 Speaker 1: Aaron Aaron Jones. That is a legit too edit monster 956 00:49:24,200 --> 00:49:25,600 Speaker 1: and that's what we all expect to come of the year. 957 00:49:25,600 --> 00:49:27,920 Speaker 1: They'd lean on but they had new receivers, so the 958 00:49:27,920 --> 00:49:30,239 Speaker 1: teams were just stacking the box and Rogers couldn't really 959 00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:32,320 Speaker 1: do anything earlier in the year. I mean, they figured 960 00:49:32,360 --> 00:49:34,120 Speaker 1: they figured a lot out these last couple of weeks. 961 00:49:34,160 --> 00:49:36,360 Speaker 1: Of me, if this was earlier in the season, we 962 00:49:36,440 --> 00:49:37,960 Speaker 1: don't have a way different tune on Green Bay. We 963 00:49:38,000 --> 00:49:40,120 Speaker 1: probably view them as team that's probably gonna make the playoffs. 964 00:49:40,560 --> 00:49:41,960 Speaker 1: It's just a little too late for that. But at 965 00:49:41,960 --> 00:49:45,080 Speaker 1: the same time, they still think they can get in. 966 00:49:45,160 --> 00:49:47,240 Speaker 1: Like they're not taking anything off for Rogers is playing. 967 00:49:47,360 --> 00:49:49,759 Speaker 1: He played this week. He says he's playing this week again. 968 00:49:49,880 --> 00:49:52,479 Speaker 1: There's just there's just something about that Green Bay team 969 00:49:52,480 --> 00:49:55,000 Speaker 1: where I'm not gonna lie to chat. When this first 970 00:49:55,040 --> 00:49:57,359 Speaker 1: came out, I was like, nice, I'll buy the low 971 00:49:57,400 --> 00:50:00,080 Speaker 1: in Miami here. This line will probably be three. I 972 00:50:00,000 --> 00:50:01,680 Speaker 1: I was shocked it opened a five and a half 973 00:50:01,719 --> 00:50:03,640 Speaker 1: and that gave me pause where I actually I didn't 974 00:50:03,680 --> 00:50:05,080 Speaker 1: bet it because I was like, I'm way off on 975 00:50:05,120 --> 00:50:07,359 Speaker 1: this line, But like you just talked about, it kind 976 00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:09,120 Speaker 1: of makes more sense now when you're really thinking about it, 977 00:50:09,160 --> 00:50:10,919 Speaker 1: where this is just a good matchup for a Green 978 00:50:10,960 --> 00:50:13,799 Speaker 1: Bay team where Miami is good. I do expect they'll 979 00:50:13,800 --> 00:50:16,120 Speaker 1: win this game. It will be a close game, like 980 00:50:16,120 --> 00:50:18,040 Speaker 1: Miami's not the team we all thought they were like. 981 00:50:18,120 --> 00:50:22,920 Speaker 1: That was a devastated road trip for them. They I 982 00:50:23,000 --> 00:50:24,919 Speaker 1: was over the four Ninears. That was a scheduled boss 983 00:50:24,920 --> 00:50:26,680 Speaker 1: with them playing that four Ninars team on the road. 984 00:50:27,040 --> 00:50:31,040 Speaker 1: Miami got humbled really quick. The Chargers won. We were 985 00:50:31,040 --> 00:50:32,680 Speaker 1: all the charges. We loved that number that was of 986 00:50:32,760 --> 00:50:33,920 Speaker 1: three and a half. That was one of those where 987 00:50:33,920 --> 00:50:35,319 Speaker 1: I was like, Okay, Miami will win this, but they're 988 00:50:35,320 --> 00:50:37,440 Speaker 1: gonna lose by field goal. They lost that out right. 989 00:50:38,360 --> 00:50:40,799 Speaker 1: They were desperate that Bills game, like they had that game, 990 00:50:40,840 --> 00:50:43,000 Speaker 1: they had the ball, they were driving, they could have 991 00:50:43,040 --> 00:50:44,560 Speaker 1: eight the clock up, kicked the field goal and that 992 00:50:44,560 --> 00:50:47,320 Speaker 1: would have been game to two. I got flustered, he 993 00:50:47,880 --> 00:50:50,000 Speaker 1: gave it up, he punted, Josh Song drove the field. 994 00:50:50,080 --> 00:50:52,520 Speaker 1: They won. Like that's what's a difference seam than them 995 00:50:52,520 --> 00:50:55,839 Speaker 1: in the Bills. So this Miami team, we'll love them 996 00:50:55,880 --> 00:50:58,040 Speaker 1: next year. They're just not as good as a public 997 00:50:58,040 --> 00:51:00,480 Speaker 1: proceds ums and the fact that this line is what 998 00:51:00,560 --> 00:51:02,320 Speaker 1: it is kind of let you know what the public 999 00:51:02,320 --> 00:51:04,080 Speaker 1: thinks of Green Bay. They're still not dying in all 1000 00:51:04,120 --> 00:51:06,160 Speaker 1: them where like I just said, I think we're still 1001 00:51:06,160 --> 00:51:07,480 Speaker 1: getting a good number here. This is gonna be one 1002 00:51:07,520 --> 00:51:10,399 Speaker 1: of our five debatable because being where the lines going, 1003 00:51:10,440 --> 00:51:12,640 Speaker 1: but a four and a half, I could be talking 1004 00:51:12,719 --> 00:51:14,880 Speaker 1: to playing this in the contest. Yeah, I kind of 1005 00:51:14,960 --> 00:51:18,880 Speaker 1: love this game. I feel like a lot of defensive 1006 00:51:18,920 --> 00:51:24,120 Speaker 1: have figured out what to do with the Dolphins receivers 1007 00:51:24,200 --> 00:51:29,839 Speaker 1: Jalen Waddle and Tyreek Hill and the the Packers. Their 1008 00:51:29,880 --> 00:51:35,440 Speaker 1: strength is their defensive secondary and their ability to jam receivers, 1009 00:51:35,480 --> 00:51:38,800 Speaker 1: which is what teams have been doing against the Dolphins 1010 00:51:38,840 --> 00:51:40,640 Speaker 1: the past few weeks. And look, we've talked about this. 1011 00:51:40,680 --> 00:51:45,239 Speaker 1: We've joked about it that we said a month ago 1012 00:51:45,280 --> 00:51:48,480 Speaker 1: it's time to start fading the Dolphins. That their upcoming 1013 00:51:48,520 --> 00:51:51,319 Speaker 1: schedule they were going to San Francisco. I think it 1014 00:51:51,480 --> 00:51:54,480 Speaker 1: was the Chargers. They were in Buffalo and we went 1015 00:51:54,480 --> 00:51:56,239 Speaker 1: three on that road trip. We faded them twice and 1016 00:51:56,320 --> 00:52:00,759 Speaker 1: we wrote it with him against Buffalo. Yeah, and so um, 1017 00:52:00,800 --> 00:52:02,200 Speaker 1: you know, I feel like we got a pretty good 1018 00:52:02,200 --> 00:52:04,840 Speaker 1: beat on this team. And I do think the Packers 1019 00:52:04,840 --> 00:52:06,200 Speaker 1: are a little bit like the Jacks, Like you made 1020 00:52:06,200 --> 00:52:10,040 Speaker 1: a really good point the Jazz, like they needed some 1021 00:52:10,080 --> 00:52:12,719 Speaker 1: time to get to the season. And now we love them. 1022 00:52:13,520 --> 00:52:15,239 Speaker 1: You know, other people love them, the Packers and one 1023 00:52:15,280 --> 00:52:18,239 Speaker 1: of those teams where they're on the upswing. And like 1024 00:52:18,280 --> 00:52:20,239 Speaker 1: their defense has been getting a lot better the last 1025 00:52:20,280 --> 00:52:22,239 Speaker 1: six weeks. One of the top six defenses in the 1026 00:52:22,320 --> 00:52:23,879 Speaker 1: NFL of the past six weeks. It was the past 1027 00:52:25,000 --> 00:52:26,440 Speaker 1: and they're not gonna stop in the run. But the 1028 00:52:26,440 --> 00:52:30,800 Speaker 1: Dolphins don't run. So I love it. And just the 1029 00:52:30,800 --> 00:52:33,800 Speaker 1: the only worry now with us backing and Dolphin series, 1030 00:52:33,840 --> 00:52:36,200 Speaker 1: the fact that they do play obviously better at home. 1031 00:52:36,280 --> 00:52:39,040 Speaker 1: We saw that Week one they won seven at home 1032 00:52:39,120 --> 00:52:42,040 Speaker 1: Week one past fard later in the season, we do 1033 00:52:42,080 --> 00:52:44,800 Speaker 1: you meet you Ron Cleveland. Cleveland went down to Miami. 1034 00:52:46,160 --> 00:52:49,200 Speaker 1: Miami won thirty nine, the sevent team. They had a 1035 00:52:49,239 --> 00:52:52,000 Speaker 1: bye week, then they were at home against Houston. They 1036 00:52:52,040 --> 00:52:54,759 Speaker 1: were up thirty and nothing at halftime. So we've we've 1037 00:52:54,800 --> 00:52:58,560 Speaker 1: seen them domine have explosive performances against bad teams. I 1038 00:52:58,600 --> 00:53:00,200 Speaker 1: just don't know if Green Bay is that bad. Like 1039 00:53:00,239 --> 00:53:01,439 Speaker 1: I don't know if I put them in the same 1040 00:53:01,480 --> 00:53:05,960 Speaker 1: category as those two defenses in Houston and Cleveland where 1041 00:53:05,960 --> 00:53:08,840 Speaker 1: those defenses have been struggling, like that's green Bay for 1042 00:53:08,840 --> 00:53:11,719 Speaker 1: the most part. Their defensive woes have kind of been 1043 00:53:11,719 --> 00:53:14,399 Speaker 1: figured out here down the road. So, um, we don't 1044 00:53:14,400 --> 00:53:15,880 Speaker 1: need him a win, just keep it close. And I 1045 00:53:15,880 --> 00:53:18,040 Speaker 1: think that's where we're getting here with this number. The 1046 00:53:18,080 --> 00:53:20,120 Speaker 1: Broncos are on the road, they're visiting the Rams. There 1047 00:53:20,120 --> 00:53:23,520 Speaker 1: two point underdogs. Uh tickets out in the Broncos money 1048 00:53:23,520 --> 00:53:26,520 Speaker 1: on the Rams. No thoughts on this game. You guys 1049 00:53:26,520 --> 00:53:29,480 Speaker 1: are psychos if you're betting this, I guess. I guess 1050 00:53:29,520 --> 00:53:32,120 Speaker 1: Broncos because they have a great defense, but not no 1051 00:53:32,280 --> 00:53:36,360 Speaker 1: real read for me bucks nine point? Am I reading 1052 00:53:36,360 --> 00:53:39,919 Speaker 1: that right? No six point favorites on the road at 1053 00:53:39,920 --> 00:53:44,080 Speaker 1: the Cardinals once again, another game where it's just like, 1054 00:53:45,719 --> 00:53:47,440 Speaker 1: I get what the NFL is doing. All these games 1055 00:53:47,440 --> 00:53:51,000 Speaker 1: look so good for Christmas Sunday Slate, but just absolute stinkers. 1056 00:53:51,760 --> 00:53:53,799 Speaker 1: I guess I'll bet on it because it's the it's 1057 00:53:53,840 --> 00:53:56,240 Speaker 1: the Sunday game on Christmas, and it's something to watch 1058 00:53:56,320 --> 00:53:59,600 Speaker 1: and I love a good home dog. But no, we're 1059 00:53:59,600 --> 00:54:02,680 Speaker 1: gonna read on this. It's like just two bad teams 1060 00:54:02,719 --> 00:54:05,680 Speaker 1: that you know, it means more to the Buccaneers, so 1061 00:54:05,680 --> 00:54:07,480 Speaker 1: that's why I guess they're getting a bunch of points here. 1062 00:54:07,520 --> 00:54:09,920 Speaker 1: But I'll take six points with the home doog. I 1063 00:54:09,920 --> 00:54:14,120 Speaker 1: guess all I can say is thank god it's NBA 1064 00:54:14,239 --> 00:54:17,520 Speaker 1: games on Sunday, because like these are going to be 1065 00:54:17,560 --> 00:54:20,160 Speaker 1: stinkers of games. I want to watch that Packers, that 1066 00:54:20,280 --> 00:54:24,080 Speaker 1: Packers Dolphins games after that. Switching over to to the end, 1067 00:54:25,320 --> 00:54:38,320 Speaker 1: that's basically it Monday Night Football. The Los Angeles Chargers 1068 00:54:38,400 --> 00:54:42,480 Speaker 1: are going to visit the Indianapolis Colts. The Indianapolis Colts 1069 00:54:42,480 --> 00:54:46,320 Speaker 1: are four point underdogs at home against a Chargers team 1070 00:54:46,360 --> 00:54:50,240 Speaker 1: that we have sworn we will never bet on as favorites. 1071 00:54:50,480 --> 00:54:52,959 Speaker 1: We will never bet on them as favorites on the road, 1072 00:54:54,160 --> 00:54:58,320 Speaker 1: the Indianapolis Colts will be my executive decision. Colts plus 1073 00:54:58,320 --> 00:55:03,400 Speaker 1: four the choice between the unthinkable and the impossible with 1074 00:55:06,040 --> 00:55:11,279 Speaker 1: its decision. I love it. Jen nailed. It's like we 1075 00:55:11,360 --> 00:55:13,959 Speaker 1: hated that Tennessee game. We kept saying, if it's three, 1076 00:55:14,280 --> 00:55:17,120 Speaker 1: you have to bet Tennessee the Chargers. Just if they win, 1077 00:55:17,760 --> 00:55:20,040 Speaker 1: it doesn't matter the opponent, doesn't know how bang up 1078 00:55:20,080 --> 00:55:22,960 Speaker 1: or crappy opponent is, there will be three points somehow, 1079 00:55:23,239 --> 00:55:26,239 Speaker 1: Like that's I just this team. I cannot wait for 1080 00:55:26,239 --> 00:55:28,479 Speaker 1: Shampaign to be the coach next year of this Chargers team, 1081 00:55:28,560 --> 00:55:31,440 Speaker 1: Like that's just the Herbert talent is out of this world, 1082 00:55:31,440 --> 00:55:34,759 Speaker 1: like that threat. Yeah, the thirdy ad of Mike Williams. 1083 00:55:35,680 --> 00:55:37,520 Speaker 1: I mean I watched in a loop like twenty times. 1084 00:55:37,520 --> 00:55:41,239 Speaker 1: It's like this guy is the ultimate freak arm town. 1085 00:55:41,400 --> 00:55:46,760 Speaker 1: So yeah, Colts embarrassing loss at home, it's the Chargers 1086 00:55:46,800 --> 00:55:49,360 Speaker 1: team that. Yeah, they keep winning like they're they're a 1087 00:55:49,400 --> 00:55:51,160 Speaker 1: team that they're playing for the playoffs. Do we think 1088 00:55:51,160 --> 00:55:53,480 Speaker 1: they're gonna win this game? Yeah, because the Colts are 1089 00:55:53,600 --> 00:55:56,240 Speaker 1: terribly coached and they lose every game. But the Colts 1090 00:55:56,320 --> 00:55:59,839 Speaker 1: keep this one close. Like this is where we love 1091 00:55:59,880 --> 00:56:02,480 Speaker 1: the Colts team. I mean, the only fear is it's 1092 00:56:02,480 --> 00:56:04,680 Speaker 1: a prime time game. We've we've seen Matt Ryan in 1093 00:56:04,760 --> 00:56:09,440 Speaker 1: prime time. It's it's not good. But man, there's every 1094 00:56:09,440 --> 00:56:12,680 Speaker 1: time to buy low on a cold team, as low 1095 00:56:12,719 --> 00:56:14,839 Speaker 1: as it's gonna get. Like they're the laughing stock right 1096 00:56:14,840 --> 00:56:19,080 Speaker 1: now football. Um yeah, love love the Colts, like Chad, 1097 00:56:19,200 --> 00:56:21,359 Speaker 1: Like Chad said this, If he didn't make this his play, 1098 00:56:21,400 --> 00:56:23,759 Speaker 1: I was gonna make a mind grabbed the four now 1099 00:56:23,840 --> 00:56:25,040 Speaker 1: just because I do see it going to three and 1100 00:56:25,040 --> 00:56:27,000 Speaker 1: a half. This is just an inflated line. It shouldn't 1101 00:56:27,000 --> 00:56:33,600 Speaker 1: be moving this second three, I see it moving down 1102 00:56:33,600 --> 00:56:36,560 Speaker 1: to three and a half. It's going up or down 1103 00:56:36,920 --> 00:56:38,799 Speaker 1: down to three and a half. Okay, So yeah, like 1104 00:56:38,880 --> 00:56:41,919 Speaker 1: that's just an inflated line like that. I just said, 1105 00:56:41,960 --> 00:56:43,800 Speaker 1: it's one of those we have you have to bet 1106 00:56:43,880 --> 00:56:46,800 Speaker 1: because it's just a smart number. It's Chargers team that 1107 00:56:46,840 --> 00:56:49,440 Speaker 1: they play games close. We know exactly what the Colts 1108 00:56:49,440 --> 00:56:50,919 Speaker 1: want to do. The Colts want to run the ball. 1109 00:56:51,000 --> 00:56:54,200 Speaker 1: What's the Charger's biggest weakness. It's against the run. That's 1110 00:56:54,200 --> 00:56:56,839 Speaker 1: why these teams that aren't that good like Tennessee can 1111 00:56:56,880 --> 00:56:58,680 Speaker 1: stay in a game the whole time. Because if you 1112 00:56:58,760 --> 00:57:01,439 Speaker 1: just get Herbert off his rhythm, he can't perform. It's 1113 00:57:01,440 --> 00:57:03,319 Speaker 1: the it is a weird thing. Like the fact that 1114 00:57:03,360 --> 00:57:05,799 Speaker 1: we scored fourteen points last week, that's kind of how 1115 00:57:05,800 --> 00:57:07,120 Speaker 1: he is. Like he can just get If he gets 1116 00:57:07,160 --> 00:57:09,879 Speaker 1: in a rhythm, you're dead. You're done. If he doesn't 1117 00:57:09,880 --> 00:57:12,319 Speaker 1: get in a rhythm, it's a wonky game the whole time. 1118 00:57:12,400 --> 00:57:14,600 Speaker 1: That's kind of how the Chargers played. That's exactly what 1119 00:57:14,600 --> 00:57:16,840 Speaker 1: the Colts want to do. Like, that's how the Colts thrived, 1120 00:57:17,040 --> 00:57:20,640 Speaker 1: especially in this position at home, everyone's kind of them out. 1121 00:57:21,000 --> 00:57:22,840 Speaker 1: So me and Chad will be one of ten people 1122 00:57:22,840 --> 00:57:25,600 Speaker 1: watching this game rooting for the Colts, but just a 1123 00:57:25,600 --> 00:57:27,840 Speaker 1: smart number to play, just like the Patriots. It's like 1124 00:57:28,120 --> 00:57:30,040 Speaker 1: it doesn't feel good, but it's a game we have 1125 00:57:30,120 --> 00:57:33,480 Speaker 1: to kind of bet. Right now, our foxhold is Pats 1126 00:57:33,480 --> 00:57:35,840 Speaker 1: plus three and a half. Our Simon says is Eagles 1127 00:57:35,840 --> 00:57:37,720 Speaker 1: plus five and a half. I did not see any 1128 00:57:37,760 --> 00:57:41,000 Speaker 1: six is available. The exact decision is Colts plus four. 1129 00:57:41,800 --> 00:57:45,040 Speaker 1: The games we are leaning towards right now Bears nine 1130 00:57:45,080 --> 00:57:49,200 Speaker 1: and a half, Paths three and a half. Washington is 1131 00:57:49,240 --> 00:57:53,240 Speaker 1: at seven and a half. Right now, the Packers are 1132 00:57:53,280 --> 00:57:55,000 Speaker 1: on the list of four and a half, but we'll 1133 00:57:55,040 --> 00:57:58,080 Speaker 1: see what the contest says. We like the Colts at four, 1134 00:57:58,320 --> 00:58:01,240 Speaker 1: the Eagles at five and a half, all dogs. Right now, 1135 00:58:02,600 --> 00:58:05,520 Speaker 1: we're waiting. We're going to set an action network line 1136 00:58:05,600 --> 00:58:10,640 Speaker 1: change alert for Minnesota minus three. We're waiting on Carolina 1137 00:58:10,680 --> 00:58:13,160 Speaker 1: plus three, seeing if we can get Caroline at three. 1138 00:58:13,760 --> 00:58:16,360 Speaker 1: And I like Seattle nine and a half. We're going 1139 00:58:16,440 --> 00:58:18,560 Speaker 1: to see if we can convince each other of that. 1140 00:58:18,800 --> 00:58:20,320 Speaker 1: There's just so many of their dogs though, you know, 1141 00:58:20,400 --> 00:58:24,080 Speaker 1: that's that's the hardest part. We're gonna bet it either way. Yeah, 1142 00:58:24,840 --> 00:58:28,400 Speaker 1: you know, really really fun, really going to be a 1143 00:58:28,440 --> 00:58:30,760 Speaker 1: great weekend for betting. We will narrow it down more 1144 00:58:30,800 --> 00:58:33,320 Speaker 1: on Thursday. As a reminder, if you want to hear 1145 00:58:33,320 --> 00:58:36,080 Speaker 1: the Favorites full day early, you can listen live on AMP. 1146 00:58:36,120 --> 00:58:39,840 Speaker 1: You just download the free AMP app and follow at 1147 00:58:39,880 --> 00:58:46,280 Speaker 1: the Favorites. We're back recording live again this Thursday Am, 1148 00:58:46,320 --> 00:58:50,160 Speaker 1: and then a special early recording next Tuesday at ten 1149 00:58:50,240 --> 00:58:53,520 Speaker 1: am Eastern. And I want to thank everybody for the 1150 00:58:53,600 --> 00:59:00,240 Speaker 1: Apple Podcast reviews. Here are three winners of reviews this week, 1151 00:59:00,640 --> 00:59:10,160 Speaker 1: Ohio State, d J Thumpo, and then Annie Yoli. Please 1152 00:59:10,800 --> 00:59:14,800 Speaker 1: email podcasts with an s at Action network dot com 1153 00:59:14,840 --> 00:59:18,800 Speaker 1: to claim your prize. This has been the favorite podcast 1154 00:59:18,800 --> 00:59:21,640 Speaker 1: from the Volume podcast Network. I am Chad and Aleman. 1155 00:59:21,800 --> 00:59:25,160 Speaker 1: He is Simon Hunter. Our producer is Matt Mitchell. You 1156 00:59:25,200 --> 00:59:27,920 Speaker 1: can download us an Apple podcast or Spotify, wherever you 1157 00:59:27,920 --> 00:59:31,640 Speaker 1: get your podcasts. Rate reviews, subscribe, leave us five stars 1158 00:59:31,800 --> 00:59:34,400 Speaker 1: your chance to win some swag. Say whatever you want. 1159 00:59:34,440 --> 00:59:37,000 Speaker 1: Feedback is a gift. Listen all the way through keeps 1160 00:59:37,040 --> 00:59:42,439 Speaker 1: us in the rankings until next time. I love you Yeah. 1161 00:59:45,840 --> 00:59:50,000 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 1162 00:59:50,000 --> 00:59:53,040 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available. 1163 00:59:53,680 --> 00:59:55,400 Speaker 1: Seven Gambler