1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:03,400 Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Carol Masser and I'm Jason Kelly. It's time 2 00:00:03,440 --> 00:00:05,480 Speaker 1: for this week's cover story, and Carol, I have to 3 00:00:05,519 --> 00:00:08,400 Speaker 1: say it is a provocative one. Well, the US has 4 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:10,800 Speaker 1: gotten into a very bad place during the pandemic. No 5 00:00:11,000 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: argument there, and no argument about the fact that there 6 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:16,840 Speaker 1: are no good exits, and I think it's safe to say, Jason, 7 00:00:16,840 --> 00:00:19,800 Speaker 1: no argument too, that we desperately need to reopen the economy, 8 00:00:19,960 --> 00:00:23,439 Speaker 1: yet doing so makes us vulnerable to a resurgence of 9 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:26,640 Speaker 1: the coronavirus. And in pushing for such a quick return 10 00:00:26,680 --> 00:00:29,640 Speaker 1: to normalcy, President Trump chooses to frame the debate around 11 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:34,360 Speaker 1: lies versus livelihoods. But that's a false choice. According to 12 00:00:34,400 --> 00:00:37,680 Speaker 1: Peter Coy in game theory, Trump is quote gambling on 13 00:00:37,760 --> 00:00:40,920 Speaker 1: a resurrection. According to the story, the concept is that 14 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:43,239 Speaker 1: if you're playing from behind, big moves with only a 15 00:00:43,280 --> 00:00:46,320 Speaker 1: small chance of payoff can make sense. And then Jason, 16 00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:49,440 Speaker 1: under what Peter Coy calls the divider in Chief, Americans 17 00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:52,239 Speaker 1: are fighting each other instead of the virus. And yet, 18 00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:54,480 Speaker 1: as Peter goes on to write, our best laid plans 19 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:57,680 Speaker 1: for reopening the economy are worth nothing if they don't 20 00:00:57,720 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 1: factor in how the virus will respond to that. Now, 21 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:03,279 Speaker 1: the virus simply isn't going away anytime soon, and our 22 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:06,800 Speaker 1: inability to deal with that unfortunate reality, well, it will 23 00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:10,200 Speaker 1: only add to its costly birden And that's really Peter's argument. 24 00:01:10,600 --> 00:01:13,480 Speaker 1: Where do we go from here? Trump is gambling on 25 00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:17,440 Speaker 1: reopening the American economy early, even if it costs more lives. 26 00:01:18,000 --> 00:01:21,280 Speaker 1: But that's a false choice. We can reboot and still 27 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:25,039 Speaker 1: be safe. Here's a realist's guide to getting through the 28 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:30,240 Speaker 1: pandemic by Peter Coy. David Rock, a mathematician at the 29 00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:34,080 Speaker 1: University of California at Davis, has been watching President Trump's 30 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:38,360 Speaker 1: pandemic performance with a scholars interest. The president's touting of 31 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:42,320 Speaker 1: and now maybe even using the rheumatism drug hydroxy chloroquine, 32 00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:46,840 Speaker 1: his musing about injecting disinfectants, and his egging on of 33 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:50,600 Speaker 1: armed anti shutdown protesters all look to Rock like a 34 00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:55,480 Speaker 1: species of what game theory calls gambling for resurrection. The 35 00:01:55,560 --> 00:01:58,280 Speaker 1: concept is that if you're behind in a game, say 36 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:02,920 Speaker 1: a presidential campaign, big bold moves can make sense, even 37 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:05,160 Speaker 1: if there's only a small chance they will pay off. 38 00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:09,000 Speaker 1: If someone does stumble on a miracle cure for COVID nineteen, 39 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:12,440 Speaker 1: or the national economy somehow gets going by election day, 40 00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 1: then both Trump and the American people win. If the 41 00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:19,320 Speaker 1: gambles fail, he's no worse off because he was probably 42 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:22,800 Speaker 1: going to lose the election anyway. As for the American people, 43 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 1: they could wind up much worse off from his experiments. 44 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:28,920 Speaker 1: But if the president has a bad election day, that 45 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:33,120 Speaker 1: won't be his problem anymore. From the perspective of game theory, 46 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:36,880 Speaker 1: Trump's wager is highly rational, says Roc, who handled the 47 00:02:36,919 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 1: math parts of a nineteen ninety five book on gambling 48 00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 1: for resurrection called Optimal Imperfection, Domestic Uncertainty and Institutions in 49 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:48,359 Speaker 1: International Relations, which he wrote with the late political scientist 50 00:02:48,480 --> 00:02:52,160 Speaker 1: George Downs. On the other hand, Roc allows that the 51 00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 1: president may just be winging it. With Trump, he says, 52 00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:58,320 Speaker 1: it's very difficult to tell how much is craft and 53 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:02,040 Speaker 1: how much is idiocy. The U s has gotten into 54 00:03:02,080 --> 00:03:04,600 Speaker 1: a bad place from which there are no good exits. 55 00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:07,919 Speaker 1: It desperately needs to reopen the economy, and yet is 56 00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:10,520 Speaker 1: vulnerable to a resurgence of disease if it does so 57 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:15,120 Speaker 1: without careful preparation. The economy lost twenty point five million 58 00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 1: jobs in April, and the unemployment rate rose to fourteen 59 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:22,000 Speaker 1: point seven percent at the same time. As of May twentieth, 60 00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:24,120 Speaker 1: there have been more than one and a half million 61 00:03:24,200 --> 00:03:27,600 Speaker 1: cases of COVID nineteen in the US and almost ninety 62 00:03:27,600 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 1: two thousand deaths versus fifty eight thousand in the Vietnam War. 63 00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 1: With the election approaching, it's reasonable to assume that Trump 64 00:03:35,240 --> 00:03:37,880 Speaker 1: will double down on his gamble to get the economy 65 00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:41,280 Speaker 1: to bounce back from what Bloomberg Economics calls the sharpest 66 00:03:41,320 --> 00:03:45,080 Speaker 1: decline since World War Two. But what about everybody else? 67 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:50,320 Speaker 1: What's the right strategy for companies, Congress, state and local governments, 68 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:53,480 Speaker 1: and families As the US begins to reopen with the 69 00:03:53,560 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 1: virus still on the loose. Consider this a realist's guide 70 00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:01,560 Speaker 1: to outlasting the pandemic. There's actually a fair chance that 71 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:04,440 Speaker 1: Trump's bet will pay off. Let's say the number of 72 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:07,560 Speaker 1: new cases continues to fall nationally, as it has in 73 00:04:07,640 --> 00:04:11,200 Speaker 1: most of the world because most people continue to take precautions. 74 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:16,400 Speaker 1: Deaths remain elevated in nursing homes, prisons, and crowded multigenerational housing, 75 00:04:16,760 --> 00:04:19,640 Speaker 1: but the public regards that as an inevitable consequence of 76 00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:23,520 Speaker 1: the pandemic and doesn't blame Trump. Democrats come to be 77 00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:27,320 Speaker 1: seen as silly handwringers, or worse, obstructionists who tried to 78 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:30,719 Speaker 1: kill growth for political ends. Trump suddenly has a good 79 00:04:30,720 --> 00:04:35,400 Speaker 1: shot at winning a second term. Two points about that scenario. One, 80 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 1: allowing more vulnerable people to die is a choice, not 81 00:04:39,279 --> 00:04:43,440 Speaker 1: an inevitability. Two, There's a risk that things will turn 82 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:46,680 Speaker 1: out much worse with a second or third national wave 83 00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:50,560 Speaker 1: of infections that kills tens of thousands or more. The 84 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:55,480 Speaker 1: Trumpian framing device lives versus livelihoods is a false choice. 85 00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:59,120 Speaker 1: Will some people be affected, yes, Will some people will 86 00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:02,920 Speaker 1: be affected badly? Yes, Trump told reporters during a factory 87 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:05,280 Speaker 1: visit on May five. But we have to get our 88 00:05:05,279 --> 00:05:07,520 Speaker 1: country open, and we have to get it open soon. 89 00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:11,520 Speaker 1: In reality, reopening too soon is likely to cost both 90 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:15,520 Speaker 1: lives and livelihoods. The economy won't regain full strength if 91 00:05:15,560 --> 00:05:18,560 Speaker 1: people remain afraid to leave home, or if fresh outbreaks 92 00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:22,640 Speaker 1: force renewed closures. Other countries, from Iceland to South Korea 93 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:25,599 Speaker 1: to New Zealand have shown that stopping the virus cold 94 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:28,920 Speaker 1: first is the most effective way to save the economy. 95 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:32,520 Speaker 1: Even then, victory is not complete. China has imposed a 96 00:05:32,560 --> 00:05:35,279 Speaker 1: new lockdown on more than one million people in its 97 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:38,440 Speaker 1: northeast amid fears that a flare up there may have 98 00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:42,479 Speaker 1: been caused by a harder to detect version. While Trump 99 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:46,279 Speaker 1: aspires to refill stadiums with fans, the hard reality is 100 00:05:46,320 --> 00:05:49,320 Speaker 1: that until there's a vaccine, life will have to be 101 00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:53,920 Speaker 1: different and worse. Surviving the pandemic will be enormously expensive, 102 00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 1: not only in dollar terms, but in the changes people 103 00:05:56,760 --> 00:05:59,440 Speaker 1: need to make, from mask wearing to isolation of the 104 00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:04,000 Speaker 1: elderly two bands on large gatherings. Months after the outbreak began, 105 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:08,000 Speaker 1: the US remains short of reagents, swabs, and other materials 106 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:11,640 Speaker 1: needed for widespread testing, and lacks the infrastructure to trace 107 00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:15,200 Speaker 1: the contacts of people who test positive, critical components of 108 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:19,840 Speaker 1: any reopening plan. Trump recently promised a vaccine by year end, 109 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:23,520 Speaker 1: but as a reality check, there are still no approved 110 00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:28,120 Speaker 1: vaccines to prevent COVID nineteen's older cousins, twenty twelves mers, 111 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:31,400 Speaker 1: and two thousand and threes stars. We have to find 112 00:06:31,400 --> 00:06:33,760 Speaker 1: ways to live with the virus for now, and this 113 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:36,960 Speaker 1: is the new normal. To Keishi Kasai, the World Health 114 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:40,159 Speaker 1: Organization's Regional director for the Western Pacific set in a 115 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:43,520 Speaker 1: briefing on May fourteenth, as long as the virus is 116 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:46,640 Speaker 1: circulating in this interconnected world, and until we have a 117 00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:51,360 Speaker 1: safe and effective vaccine, everybody remains at risk. The International 118 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 1: Monetary Fund estimates that shutdowns will destroy nine trillion dollars 119 00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:58,560 Speaker 1: in world economic output in twenty twenty and twenty twenty one. 120 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:02,120 Speaker 1: If that's true, then the world saves three seventy five 121 00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:04,839 Speaker 1: billion dollars for every month by which it manages to 122 00:07:04,839 --> 00:07:08,920 Speaker 1: shorten them. That huge sum can be interpreted two ways 123 00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 1: as a reason to reopen right away, with safety as 124 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:16,480 Speaker 1: a secondary concern, or better as a justification for spending 125 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:20,360 Speaker 1: crazy sums to make the reopening safe. Opening only to 126 00:07:20,360 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 1: shut down again just extends the pain and cost. But 127 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:27,080 Speaker 1: government spending that accelerates development of a vaccine or effective 128 00:07:27,080 --> 00:07:30,680 Speaker 1: anti viral treatment, allowing the economy to open safely even 129 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:33,520 Speaker 1: a month or two earlier, will pay for itself many 130 00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:37,960 Speaker 1: times over. Subsidize the construction of multiple factories for vaccines 131 00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 1: that are still undergoing testing just in case they pan out, 132 00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:47,280 Speaker 1: even though most probably won't. Sure. COVID nineteen has changed everything. 133 00:07:47,880 --> 00:07:51,080 Speaker 1: Things that made sense before the pandemic don't anymore, and 134 00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:54,000 Speaker 1: things that were absurd before the pandemic are reasonable and 135 00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:58,080 Speaker 1: realistic now. Spending gargantuan sums of taxpayer money is not 136 00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:02,760 Speaker 1: wasteful at all. To screw imp is penny wise, pound foolish. 137 00:08:03,200 --> 00:08:05,760 Speaker 1: The same logic argues for going big on aid to 138 00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:08,400 Speaker 1: families and businesses that have been harmed by the virus. 139 00:08:09,280 --> 00:08:12,520 Speaker 1: Some of the money will inevitably be caged by unworthy parties, 140 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 1: providing fodder for investigative journalists and congressional committees. But in 141 00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 1: a crisis, the perfect can be the enemy of the good. 142 00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:23,400 Speaker 1: There's even a public health angle. People who are managing 143 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:25,960 Speaker 1: okay in a lockdown because of help from the government 144 00:08:26,280 --> 00:08:30,200 Speaker 1: won't be so desperate to reopen economies that will save lives. 145 00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:33,600 Speaker 1: It's hard to imagine that running up huge government deficits 146 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:36,880 Speaker 1: could ever be a sound strategy. But then, the greatest 147 00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:40,080 Speaker 1: policy failure of the pandemic has been a failure of imagination, 148 00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:43,960 Speaker 1: an inability to grasp the magnitude of this disaster and 149 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:47,400 Speaker 1: the measures required to combat it. Trump was far from 150 00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:50,640 Speaker 1: the only myopic leader in the early going. British Prime 151 00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:54,080 Speaker 1: Minister Boris Johnson briefly gambled on letting the virus spread 152 00:08:54,280 --> 00:08:58,320 Speaker 1: to achieve her community before coming down with COVID nineteen himself. 153 00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:02,600 Speaker 1: Even now, the UK, Italy, and France have more fatalities 154 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:06,360 Speaker 1: per capita than the US does. New York City's terrible 155 00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 1: outbreak is partly the fault of Mayor Bill de Blasio 156 00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:12,120 Speaker 1: and Governor Andrew Cuomo, who have feuded for years and 157 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 1: reacted tardily to the virus. Cuomo pushed de Blasio to 158 00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:18,920 Speaker 1: close city schools, but when de Blasio spoke of a 159 00:09:18,960 --> 00:09:22,200 Speaker 1: shelter in place order for the entire city, Cuomo initially 160 00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:25,800 Speaker 1: opposed the idea, saying on March seventeenth that no city 161 00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:29,680 Speaker 1: in the state can quarantine itself without state approval. The 162 00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:32,080 Speaker 1: imagination that was absent at the start of the crisis 163 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:34,720 Speaker 1: is more important now that the US is attempting to 164 00:09:34,760 --> 00:09:38,520 Speaker 1: emerge from it. To defeat the virus, think like the virus, 165 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:42,600 Speaker 1: not literally, of course, since viruses don't have brains or intent. 166 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:45,520 Speaker 1: We just need to be aware that the best laid 167 00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:48,320 Speaker 1: plans for reopening are worth nothing if they don't factor 168 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 1: in how the virus will respond to them. Probing for 169 00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:54,959 Speaker 1: weaknesses in society's defenses and flaring up in inconvenient places. 170 00:09:55,480 --> 00:09:59,480 Speaker 1: A single infected person entering an unexposed population is like 171 00:09:59,559 --> 00:10:02,880 Speaker 1: dropping a blob of ink into clean water. Kim Gang Lip, 172 00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 1: South Korea's Vice Minister of health, warned on May eighth, 173 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:10,199 Speaker 1: after an outbreak at nightclubs, by now we know what works. 174 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:13,880 Speaker 1: The pandemic fighting strategy that was pioneered by China and 175 00:10:13,920 --> 00:10:16,760 Speaker 1: applied successfully elsewhere is to get the rate of new 176 00:10:16,760 --> 00:10:19,480 Speaker 1: infections low enough that you can stamp out fresh flare 177 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:22,600 Speaker 1: ups through testing and tracing. If there are too many 178 00:10:22,640 --> 00:10:25,760 Speaker 1: active infections, though testers and tracers won't be able to 179 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:28,520 Speaker 1: keep up. They'd be fighting a brush fire with a 180 00:10:28,559 --> 00:10:33,239 Speaker 1: water pistol. That's why in Wisconsin, where cases have been increasing, 181 00:10:33,640 --> 00:10:36,600 Speaker 1: Governor Tony Evers wanted to extend to stay at home order, 182 00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:39,840 Speaker 1: but the state Supreme Court overruled him on May thirteenth, 183 00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 1: and residents flocked to bars and restaurants. In Texas, armed 184 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:47,840 Speaker 1: militia members have guarded some establishments that opened illegally to 185 00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:51,679 Speaker 1: keep police from shutting them down. With Trump presiding as 186 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:54,960 Speaker 1: divider in chief, Americans are fighting each other instead of 187 00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:57,800 Speaker 1: the virus. The risk, of course, is more waves of 188 00:10:57,800 --> 00:11:01,080 Speaker 1: infections in the Spanish flu pen deemic of nineteen eighteen 189 00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:05,400 Speaker 1: and nineteen, the second wave was bigger than the first one. 190 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 1: Pragmatic way out of this political log jam could be 191 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:11,760 Speaker 1: truly massive testing enough to tamp down even a high 192 00:11:11,800 --> 00:11:15,680 Speaker 1: infection rate. It could be coupled with contact tracing, which 193 00:11:15,679 --> 00:11:17,720 Speaker 1: can be done using cell phone data as well as 194 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:20,600 Speaker 1: trained human tracers, some of whom could be people who 195 00:11:20,640 --> 00:11:24,439 Speaker 1: lost jobs because of the pandemic. Mike Bloomberg, the majority 196 00:11:24,440 --> 00:11:27,320 Speaker 1: owner of Bloomberg LP, is financing such an effort by 197 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:31,200 Speaker 1: New York States Department of Health, but tracing is costly 198 00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:33,360 Speaker 1: and the US isn't prepared to do it on a 199 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:37,840 Speaker 1: massive scale. Fortunately, using nasal swabs to find and isolate 200 00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:41,880 Speaker 1: asymptomatic carriers sharply reduces the spread of the virus, even 201 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:44,719 Speaker 1: if it's not accompanied by tracing of the carrier's contacts. 202 00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:48,400 Speaker 1: According to simulations by New York University economist Paul Romer, 203 00:11:49,040 --> 00:11:52,520 Speaker 1: to control this pandemic and any future pandemic, the U 204 00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:55,160 Speaker 1: s should make the investment necessary to test people every 205 00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:58,520 Speaker 1: two weeks, which would mean twenty five million tests per 206 00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:01,920 Speaker 1: day on an ongoing basis. He writes, in a reopening 207 00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:05,440 Speaker 1: road map. The US has done just over twelve million 208 00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:09,760 Speaker 1: tests in total so far, according to the COVID Tracking Project, 209 00:12:10,080 --> 00:12:13,400 Speaker 1: a volunteer effort launched by The Atlantic magazine to speed 210 00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:17,320 Speaker 1: up a vaccine. Harvard economist Michael Kreamer and others advocate 211 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:21,400 Speaker 1: government co funding of research, development, and manufacturing. That's because 212 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:24,240 Speaker 1: vaccine makers won't invest as much as society needs them 213 00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:27,160 Speaker 1: to if they bear all the risk. To make sure 214 00:12:27,200 --> 00:12:29,680 Speaker 1: the companies have skin in the game, some of their 215 00:12:29,720 --> 00:12:32,320 Speaker 1: compensation from governments would come at the back end, in 216 00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:35,760 Speaker 1: the form of guaranteed, fixed price purchases of vaccines that 217 00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:39,960 Speaker 1: meet standards of safety and effectiveness. Another way to accelerate 218 00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:43,000 Speaker 1: things is a so called challenge trial of a vaccine, 219 00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:47,240 Speaker 1: in which experimenters deliberately infect volunteers instead of waiting for 220 00:12:47,280 --> 00:12:50,640 Speaker 1: subjects to get exposed by chance. A group called One 221 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:54,359 Speaker 1: Day Sooner has lined up thousands of young, healthy altruists 222 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:57,520 Speaker 1: who are willing to risk getting sick, and survivors of 223 00:12:57,559 --> 00:13:00,960 Speaker 1: COVID nineteen with antibodies to prove it are stepping up 224 00:13:01,040 --> 00:13:03,520 Speaker 1: to work amid contagion in the belief that they have 225 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:07,679 Speaker 1: at least some immunity. For business, the primary concern is 226 00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:11,880 Speaker 1: keeping employees and customers safe while restarting the engines of commerce. 227 00:13:12,440 --> 00:13:15,840 Speaker 1: One concept is the Qoran team, a small group of 228 00:13:15,840 --> 00:13:18,720 Speaker 1: people who mingle with each other but remain socially distant 229 00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:22,400 Speaker 1: from other quarrant teams. A more straightforward idea is to 230 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:26,600 Speaker 1: just keep working from home where that's possible. Video conferencing 231 00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:30,480 Speaker 1: is here to stay. Jimmy Ethridge, chief executive officer of 232 00:13:30,520 --> 00:13:34,960 Speaker 1: North America for Accenture, says his consulting organizations productivity metrics 233 00:13:35,000 --> 00:13:38,400 Speaker 1: were higher in March and April than in January and February. 234 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:42,080 Speaker 1: Some jobs that require a physical presence can be restructured 235 00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:45,360 Speaker 1: to minimize contact. It's already common in parts of the 236 00:13:45,400 --> 00:13:49,079 Speaker 1: country for cashiers to be separated from customers by plastic shields. 237 00:13:49,559 --> 00:13:52,760 Speaker 1: As punishing as a comprehensive shutdown is, it has the 238 00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:57,480 Speaker 1: advantage of clarity. Reopening is baffling, who, how much, and 239 00:13:57,559 --> 00:14:01,000 Speaker 1: when are all in question and influx. Trump has left 240 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:03,960 Speaker 1: the tough decisions to the states, despite tweeting in April 241 00:14:03,960 --> 00:14:07,160 Speaker 1: that reopening is the decision of the president and later 242 00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:10,800 Speaker 1: bashing Democratic governors who followed his own administration's guidelines in 243 00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:14,680 Speaker 1: delaying reopening, police departments are being put in a difficult 244 00:14:14,679 --> 00:14:18,079 Speaker 1: position having to enforce rules that are constantly changing as 245 00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:22,280 Speaker 1: the pandemic itself changes. Police officers are not social workers, 246 00:14:22,720 --> 00:14:26,920 Speaker 1: they're not homeless outreach coordinators. They're not medical professionals, says 247 00:14:27,000 --> 00:14:30,400 Speaker 1: Monipha Bandele, senior vice president of Mom's Rising dot Org, 248 00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:33,280 Speaker 1: which has protested heavy handed enforcement of stay at home 249 00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:37,560 Speaker 1: orders in minority neighborhoods. As in the case of vaccine development, 250 00:14:37,800 --> 00:14:39,800 Speaker 1: it's worth spending a lot of time and money to 251 00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:42,960 Speaker 1: enable safe reopening because the cost of staying shut is 252 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:46,920 Speaker 1: so enormous. Thin doubt seating in offices, in public places, 253 00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:49,920 Speaker 1: and on planes and trains is better than no seating 254 00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:54,560 Speaker 1: at all. Likewise, why not carefully reopen schools but tell 255 00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:57,520 Speaker 1: children who live with their grandparents or have other complications 256 00:14:57,720 --> 00:15:01,040 Speaker 1: that they'll have to continue learning online. Better some students 257 00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:04,280 Speaker 1: in the classroom than none. The end of social distancing 258 00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:07,520 Speaker 1: increases the peril to residence of nursing homes because it 259 00:15:07,560 --> 00:15:09,920 Speaker 1: means their staffs will be more exposed to the virus 260 00:15:09,920 --> 00:15:12,800 Speaker 1: while at home, So why not pay workers extra to 261 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:16,120 Speaker 1: live on the premises. The government could help cover the cost. 262 00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:20,240 Speaker 1: Speaking of cost, the war against COVID nineteen is not 263 00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 1: going to get any cheaper. Trump and the Republicans in 264 00:15:23,320 --> 00:15:26,200 Speaker 1: Congress have supported heavy spending to fight the virus and 265 00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:29,280 Speaker 1: the economic downturn, but they seem to be retreating before 266 00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:33,120 Speaker 1: the battle is over. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell opposes 267 00:15:33,160 --> 00:15:36,280 Speaker 1: a three trillion dollars stimulus bill the House of Representatives 268 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:39,720 Speaker 1: passed on May fifteenth. It includes more than one trillion 269 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:42,440 Speaker 1: dollars for state and local governments, which are bearing much 270 00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:45,080 Speaker 1: of the expense of fighting the pandemic, along with a 271 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:48,520 Speaker 1: new round of twelve hundred dollar checks for families. One 272 00:15:48,520 --> 00:15:51,480 Speaker 1: reason the GOP opposes the bill is that it's stuffed 273 00:15:51,520 --> 00:15:55,960 Speaker 1: with partisan measures such as reductions and immigration enforcement. Another 274 00:15:56,120 --> 00:15:58,840 Speaker 1: is that Senators want to pause to gauge the effect 275 00:15:58,840 --> 00:16:02,320 Speaker 1: of previous stimulus. It's always interesting to see how much 276 00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:04,920 Speaker 1: patience some people have with the pain and suffering of 277 00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:07,920 Speaker 1: other people, Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on the House floor 278 00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:12,200 Speaker 1: before the vote. Deficit spending can be problematic, but in 279 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:16,040 Speaker 1: the depths of a recession, it's necessary. Even Federal Reserve 280 00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:20,080 Speaker 1: Chairman Jerome Powell, who's paid to worry about inflation, said 281 00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:23,200 Speaker 1: in a May thirteenth speech that additional fiscal support could 282 00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:26,000 Speaker 1: be costly, but worth it if it helps avoid long 283 00:16:26,120 --> 00:16:29,360 Speaker 1: term economic damage and leaves us with a stronger recovery. 284 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:33,040 Speaker 1: Gambling on a resurrection is one of the pathologies that 285 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:36,840 Speaker 1: can emerge from what finance types call the principal agent problem, 286 00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:41,040 Speaker 1: the potential for misalignment of interests between the principle in 287 00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:43,920 Speaker 1: this case, the American people, and the agent who works 288 00:16:43,920 --> 00:16:47,520 Speaker 1: for them, in this case Trump. In business, the fix 289 00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 1: for a principal agent problem is for shareholders to have 290 00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:55,120 Speaker 1: the information in power to control the CEO with COVID nineteen. 291 00:16:55,520 --> 00:16:58,560 Speaker 1: A further complication is that the American people aren't speaking 292 00:16:58,680 --> 00:17:02,400 Speaker 1: with one voice. The pandemic and the struggle over reopening 293 00:17:02,680 --> 00:17:06,919 Speaker 1: are dividing Americans along familiar lines, Red States versus Blue 294 00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:12,480 Speaker 1: Country versus City, Shaun Hannity versus Anderson Cooper. That's unfortunate 295 00:17:12,800 --> 00:17:16,840 Speaker 1: because fighting the coronavirus requires a united effort. It thrives 296 00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 1: in an unprotected nursing home on a beach crowded with 297 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:22,760 Speaker 1: blithe young people, in a boarding house jammed with low 298 00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:27,520 Speaker 1: paid migrant workers. From there, it spreads as with Injustice, 299 00:17:27,840 --> 00:17:32,720 Speaker 1: an outbreak anywhere is an outbreak everywhere. Thanks for listening 300 00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:34,960 Speaker 1: to our cover story. I'm Carol Masser. Be sure to 301 00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:37,480 Speaker 1: check out the cover story along with the entire double 302 00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:40,239 Speaker 1: issue of Bloomberg Business Week magazine. It's on newstands, it's 303 00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:42,840 Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg and of course oways at Bloomberg dot com. 304 00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:45,560 Speaker 1: And I'm Jason Kelly. Check us out every day on 305 00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:49,440 Speaker 1: the radio, our daily Bloomberg business Week Radio show. It's 306 00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:52,639 Speaker 1: a two p m. Wall Street Time. Also via podcast 307 00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:54,119 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts.