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Speaker 1: Let's talk about oil. We will be talking about Iran

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Speaker 1: in a little bit. We didn't talk about Iran yet.

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Speaker 1: But what what price of oil becomes dangerous with stocks.

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Speaker 1: I know a lot of people are talking about eighty dollars.

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Speaker 1: That isn't the number. The number is ninety three dollars

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Speaker 1: and fifty cent.

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Speaker 2: If we get to that level, it will start to

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Speaker 2: have some negative effects in the economy. I know people

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Speaker 2: have been asking about it oil trade and how do

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Speaker 2: I play oil features. It's too late, but said an alert,

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Speaker 2: if we get to ninety three fifty, it will give

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Speaker 2: you a reason to be concerned about how stocks are

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Speaker 2: going to perform, how the economy is going to go.

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Speaker 2: The higher the oil prices usually the worst the economy does.

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Speaker 2: So eighty is not that it's like a snooze alarm.

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Speaker 2: It's the first alarm to put on, but it's not

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Speaker 2: the real level. Ninety three dollars and fifty cent is

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Speaker 2: a real level that you need to worry about. If

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Speaker 2: we get there, you'll have some pushback and contraction in

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Speaker 2: the market long term.

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Speaker 3: That's crazy. You had ninety I was going higher. I

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Speaker 3: was going higher.

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Speaker 4: I had I had it at between one ten and

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Speaker 4: one twenty based on historically, like the historical data, if

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Speaker 4: you look at any reception that's tied to oil, seventy

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Speaker 4: three oil embargo, seventy nine, Iranian revolution in two thousand

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Speaker 4: and eight, oil was at one hundred and forty seven dollars.

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Speaker 4: In twenty twenty two we were at one thirty, although

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Speaker 4: it was short lived. Remember that one month we had

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Speaker 4: crew that was nex that was crazy negative. Yeah, so

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Speaker 4: like one one ten to one twenty with that, that's

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Speaker 4: that's cautionary, that's red flag. That means gas prices will

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Speaker 4: be surging, right, consumer spending will fall, Uh, Inflation will

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Speaker 4: be the conversation.

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Speaker 3: In that time.

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Speaker 4: And most importantly, and this is important, and this is

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Speaker 4: why I'm bullish in twenty twenty six and I was

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Speaker 4: in twenty twenty five, corporate earnings will start to fall

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Speaker 4: because the.

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Speaker 3: Margins they get above that level. If they get above

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Speaker 3: that level, for sure, oh yeah, corporate earnings.

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Speaker 4: And so if you looked every earnings, if you look,

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Speaker 4: I mean, I think in twenty twenty five, seventy nine

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Speaker 4: percent of the S and P had positive earnings growth

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Speaker 4: for the year. Right, we're off to a pretty similar start,

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Speaker 4: I know, stocks have pulled back and companies are pulled back,

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Speaker 4: but if you look at their earnings growth, they're all

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Speaker 4: making they're still making money. We start seeing oiling those levels,

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Speaker 4: that changes, and that's that's dangerous, right, And that's those

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Speaker 4: are the things we can't control. Like when we foresee

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Speaker 4: these things, we can't control that, right, Those having a

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Speaker 4: conflict start in the war, that's we can't.

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Speaker 3: Right, we don't have a say in that, right.

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Speaker 2: But we knew it was going to come because he

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Speaker 2: was like war heavy president. And once you have investment

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Speaker 2: in Halliburton, pallenteer LC, you know he's going to lean

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Speaker 2: and use that, especially as some information come out.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean even if you followed the chessboard, right

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Speaker 4: like Venezuela, what did we take from them? I ran,

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Speaker 4: what do they have that can help contribute to what

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Speaker 4: we took from Venezuela?

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Speaker 3: Allegedly? The writing is the writing is there.

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Speaker 4: But if we get to like I said, if we

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Speaker 4: get to those levels one twenty, that's.

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Speaker 3: Uh, yeah, we got it.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, we gotta be mindful and then we start to

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Speaker 4: see maybe the vicspike again. We talked about the VIX

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Speaker 4: and RSR last week. Vic starts and it got up

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Speaker 4: to twenty five today, drop back down. But if it

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Speaker 4: starts getting in that twenty five thirty range, okay.

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Speaker 3: Someone else?

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Speaker 2: Can I tell you why I came up with the

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Speaker 2: number of ninety three fifty. If you get your tickets

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Speaker 2: to invest Fest and not doing a presentation, I will

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Speaker 2: tell you why those levels are so important.

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Speaker 3: Go to invest Fest dot com see you there. Dot

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Speaker 3: Com vip Night black Tie this year