Speaker 1: Head. Everybody.
Speaker 2: Welcome back to the Betting Pros podcast, brought to you
Speaker 2: by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. Find me
Speaker 2: on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It is entering week fourteen.
Speaker 2: It is time to take an early look at the
Speaker 2: NFL lines for this weekend. With me to do that
Speaker 2: is Joe PiZZ at PA from Betting Pros right here.
Speaker 2: Find him on Twitter at what Joe P's at PA seventeen?
Speaker 1: Is that right?
Speaker 2: I've only done seventeen thousand podcasts with you, I should
Speaker 2: know your Twitter handle.
Speaker 1: But anyway, welcome Joe.
Speaker 2: How are you riding insanely high after that grotesque Patriots
Speaker 2: win last night?
Speaker 3: It was a game of chess last night, Danny boy,
Speaker 3: it was a game of chess in the wind. And
Speaker 3: I'm about you, but when I played chess in the wind,
Speaker 3: I always like to have Bill Belichick with me right
Speaker 3: next to me. And yeah, you know, two out of
Speaker 3: three and bad is that old meat Loaf song? And
Speaker 3: that was pretty much Mac Jones's statline last night. Two
Speaker 3: out of three passes and that was good enough. Some
Speaker 3: very good defense at the end. Next man up there after,
Speaker 3: Adrian Phillips comes off the field, and what a great
Speaker 3: play by a backup defensive back there to kind of
Speaker 3: save the game at the end. So certainly not a
Speaker 3: high scoring affair. But if you love old timey defense football,
Speaker 3: then you enjoyed it. And if you're a Patriots fan
Speaker 3: like me, you definitely enjoyed it.
Speaker 2: I apparently engage in hyperbole too much, because when my
Speaker 2: wife asked, oh, how was the game? I was like,
Speaker 2: it was the most amazing game I've ever seen, Like,
Speaker 2: not in a great way, but justin ay, you don't
Speaker 2: see a quarterback of ten three passes And she basically says,
Speaker 2: I say that like one out of.
Speaker 1: Every three or four games.
Speaker 2: So I need to tone it down because that really
Speaker 2: was something where you're not going to see that again,
Speaker 2: you know, absent.
Speaker 3: There will be more passes in the third and fourth
Speaker 3: grade flag football teams that I coach in January, when
Speaker 3: that league starts up the third and fourth graders, they
Speaker 3: will be more passing than there was in this game.
Speaker 2: Absolutely nuts, but enjoyable. Get to watch nonethe last. All right,
Speaker 2: let's get into it. Joe got a lot of lines
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Speaker 2: Let's start it there. The Steelers are visiting the Vikings.
Speaker 2: The Vikings are laying three points here and the total
Speaker 2: is forty four and a half. Steelers off the big
Speaker 2: win here over the Ravens, which you and I were
Speaker 2: just talking about as investors in Lamar Jackson for our
Speaker 2: MVP and the Vikings.
Speaker 1: You know, they give the Lions their first win.
Speaker 2: They lose Adam Thielen, so they are favored though here,
Speaker 2: and it is I will say again the consensus line
Speaker 2: is three, Joe, but it is three and a half
Speaker 2: and a lot of books here.
Speaker 1: So how are you feeling about this one?
Speaker 3: Yeah? Well, I mean Look, this is the bare minimum,
Speaker 3: right Whenever you have a home team you don't believe in,
Speaker 3: you just kind of throw the three on them. That's
Speaker 3: what Vegas does typically. And I gotta be honest with you.
Speaker 3: I mean, this is the journey of the Viking season
Speaker 3: where they're in every game, every game is closed, every
Speaker 3: game they have a lead, the games they lose, they
Speaker 3: blow the lead. And in this one, who would not
Speaker 3: shock me whatsoever to get back to Minnesota here in
Speaker 3: this one and have them get a w against the Steelers,
Speaker 3: who have not played great football, who seem very sluggish,
Speaker 3: who should not have won in my opinion against the
Speaker 3: Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore Ravens got a little too big for
Speaker 3: their breeches in that last game. So I actually like
Speaker 3: the Minnesota side of this game to win. And I
Speaker 3: think that they still got plenty of weapons here, justin
Speaker 3: Jefferson plays out of his mind. They've still got Osbourne
Speaker 3: and still got Conkland, they still got Madison, all are
Speaker 3: very useful. So whether or not that defense can show
Speaker 3: up enough here and really at the stage, how much
Speaker 3: is left in the tank for the running game of
Speaker 3: the Pittsburgh Steelers. So in my opinion, I actually would
Speaker 3: lean towards Minnesota and this one in the minus three
Speaker 3: because I feel like this is exactly what it is
Speaker 3: to bet Minnesota every time you think it's done, Oh
Speaker 3: they just lost to the Lions. Oh well, I can't
Speaker 3: bet them anymore. Where I'm gonna go against them, No,
Speaker 3: it's the opposite. So just continue with that trend because
Speaker 3: that's who they've been all season long. Dan, But what
Speaker 3: do you think about them? And what do you think
Speaker 3: about this forty four and a half?
Speaker 1: I like the over a little bit, Joe.
Speaker 2: I do think that the Steelers when they went to
Speaker 2: a little bit of the no huddle in the second half,
Speaker 2: they were able to move the ball a little more effectively,
Speaker 2: just sort of get it out quickly. Downtay Johnson obviously
Speaker 2: had a big game, so I do think that they
Speaker 2: are going to be points in this game. The Steelers
Speaker 2: defense has shown a lot of cracks. They've been dealing
Speaker 2: with injuries, so I think both teams can put up
Speaker 2: points here.
Speaker 1: I don't mind the over.
Speaker 2: I don't really have a great feel for the spread.
Speaker 2: As I look at this, this I guess feels about right.
Speaker 2: But you're correct. The Vikings are always going to play
Speaker 2: a very close game here and the Steelers coming off
Speaker 2: that win, you feel like there could easily be.
Speaker 1: A letdown spot right here and the Vikings.
Speaker 2: Every time you basically want to be out on the Vikings,
Speaker 2: that's when they come through, right So I think for me, Jo,
Speaker 2: it's to stay away here on the side just you know,
Speaker 2: three points.
Speaker 1: But on the tuttal I like the over.
Speaker 2: I am wondering though, Joe, if it's three and a
Speaker 2: half as it is at our sponsored bet MGM Fandel
Speaker 2: it's three, but at three and a half.
Speaker 1: Do you does that change how you feel about it
Speaker 1: one way or another?
Speaker 3: It does with the half, I think with the hook,
Speaker 3: then you start to look a little bit on Pittsburgh
Speaker 3: to cover there, because it probably will be a little bit.
Speaker 3: You know it's going to be in that range at least,
Speaker 3: But look at this point in time, on the short
Speaker 3: week two, whenever you have to travel, that's always hard.
Speaker 3: It's a very emotional game. And what we've learned too
Speaker 3: is when these teams have these big emotional rivalry games
Speaker 3: in their division, they come out flat the next week,
Speaker 3: and they come out flat a couple days later. Is
Speaker 3: not gonna be surprised. Look at Cincinnati last week. That's
Speaker 3: what the game that you and I talked about. They're
Speaker 3: gonna come out flat. They came out flat and they
Speaker 3: got their doors blow enough by the Chargers, basically. So
Speaker 3: I see that same kind of thing happening here to
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh because Pittsburgh just ekes out wins anyway. And with
Speaker 3: the Minnesota Vikings, it's just this is the trend of
Speaker 3: this team this year until further notice, and this is
Speaker 3: the perfect time to get in on it because I
Speaker 3: think everybody will be pounding the Steelers side of this game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I do expect that.
Speaker 2: I expect more people to come in on the Steelers,
Speaker 2: which is why I'm a little surprised.
Speaker 1: Again, this is one of those.
Speaker 2: Where it looks like the books are completely fine with
Speaker 2: you taking the Steelers in this one, and that does
Speaker 2: make me a little nervous. So, Joe, have you looked
Speaker 2: I know what we talked about when we do this
Speaker 2: show together, because it's probably the third time we've done it,
Speaker 2: which is we come in fresh, like we don't look
Speaker 2: at the Lions whatsoever before we start.
Speaker 1: Have you looked at any of the lines before we.
Speaker 3: A single line. My friend, I'm.
Speaker 1: Gonna ask you. I'm going to ask you something. There's
Speaker 1: no wrong answer here.
Speaker 2: What do you expect with the Ravens coming off that
Speaker 2: loss and obviously now you know, losing Marlon Humphreys for
Speaker 2: the season, Ravens visiting the Browns, what would you expect
Speaker 2: the spread to be in that game?
Speaker 3: Because answer, it's it's in Cleveland. I would expect Cleveland
Speaker 3: to be favored by not by the full three, That's
Speaker 3: what I would think. So it's probably two and a
Speaker 3: half or two.
Speaker 2: Right, it is two and a half. Yeah, it is
Speaker 2: two and a half. The total is a low forty
Speaker 2: two and a half. So again, the Ravens here, they
Speaker 2: just look out of sort. You know, they don't look
Speaker 2: they don't have everything working. They're still eight and four,
Speaker 2: obviously they're leading the division. The Browns, you know, Baker
Speaker 2: looks like his body is holding on by a thread.
Speaker 1: At this point.
Speaker 2: They are coming off the buy, so maybe a little healthier.
Speaker 2: What do you think, Joe under the three?
Speaker 1: You had it right?
Speaker 2: It's two at DraftKings where I bet, But it's pretty
Speaker 2: much two and a half everywhere else in a low
Speaker 2: total forty two and a half.
Speaker 3: Well, now that I'm going to look at it right here,
Speaker 3: and I see the money line is plus one fifteen
Speaker 3: on Baltimore. I think that is your best bet right there.
Speaker 3: And I see eighty three percent of the bets have
Speaker 3: already come on that side of that, So that tells
Speaker 3: you a lot right there. And I don't think that
Speaker 3: the Baltimore Ravens anticipated how much they were going to
Speaker 3: miss Matthew Judon in that pass rush. And I think
Speaker 3: that's the one thing that you're not seeing. This team's
Speaker 3: not getting to the quarterback. And that's a bad commodation
Speaker 3: because when you lose Marlon Humphrey, right, who plays so
Speaker 3: well in the secondary, then you lose a good corner
Speaker 3: and then at the same time you're not getting to
Speaker 3: the cornerback. That's a bad situation. Now, the good news
Speaker 3: is Cleveland can't throw the ball, so that is the
Speaker 3: saving grace here in this particular game, which is why
Speaker 3: I prefer just an outright win for Baltimore here, Like,
Speaker 3: forget the spreads, forget everything. Take the plus one fifteen
Speaker 3: on the money line. That's gonna be their best bet here,
Speaker 3: I think in any of these because Baltimore should have
Speaker 3: won that game. Baltimore is a I still think a
Speaker 3: better team than the Cleveland Browns. Now, we'll see if
Speaker 3: Cleveland Browns can get you know, Nick Chubb and Kareem
Speaker 3: Hunt in that duo working again, and if they can,
Speaker 3: this game is going to be very tight. But these
Speaker 3: tight individual games are typically once I stay away from.
Speaker 3: I would rather just pick a side rather than mess
Speaker 3: around with anything else. And I think picking the side
Speaker 3: of the Baltimore Ravens is what I would do because
Speaker 3: they have that one difference maker guy in Lamar Jackson,
Speaker 3: who could just take over a game, and I think
Speaker 3: that ends up becoming the difference of this one.
Speaker 1: What do you think, Dah, Yeah, I like the Ravens.
Speaker 1: I do.
Speaker 2: I think that the loss of Humphrey is big, but
Speaker 2: not as much in this game right as you mentioned,
Speaker 2: because they don't really you know, they're the passing game
Speaker 2: is not really you know, you don't rely on the
Speaker 2: dominant wide receiver or anything like that.
Speaker 1: They're going to run the ball.
Speaker 2: They're going to run it a ton, and they are
Speaker 2: off the by and the Ravens are probably going to
Speaker 2: be a little tired, but they're also going to be
Speaker 2: pissed they're going to be pissed off at losing that game,
Speaker 2: and I am going to take the two and a half.
Speaker 2: By the way, I mean, the money line is fine,
Speaker 2: but again, you see right now, a lot of these games.
Speaker 1: I was watching it last night. I was on the.
Speaker 2: The the Bills laying two and a half yesterday and
Speaker 2: I remember thinking that, you know, oh man, you know
Speaker 2: if Bass hits that first field goal, the one that
Speaker 2: went up and then just start of you know, leak
Speaker 2: to the right, that it was like, this is gonna
Speaker 2: be a two point game because half the you know,
Speaker 2: so many of these games right now, especially with the
Speaker 2: way the Ravens go for two, like the two and
Speaker 2: a half, it's more meaningful to me than it used
Speaker 2: to be, where it's just like all right, you're underfield goal,
Speaker 2: like you know whatever. But like a lot of games
Speaker 2: at this point, I feel like fall within the two
Speaker 2: or something like that, or even the one. So I'll
Speaker 2: probably be a coward and take the two and a
Speaker 2: half right now. But I do think that the Ravens
Speaker 2: went out right, so I don't have any problem with
Speaker 2: necessarily the uh, the money line.
Speaker 1: Bet. What do you think about the total show? It's
Speaker 1: forty two and a half.
Speaker 2: That's low, but you know, neither one of these teams
Speaker 2: is exactly piling up the points. They're going to run
Speaker 2: a ton.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Look, this was a really tough one to gauge
Speaker 3: because last time the total was in this game was
Speaker 3: you know, very underwhelming, and then last year it was
Speaker 3: out of this world, right that they hit like sixty
Speaker 3: five I think last year and then Giant was it
Speaker 3: the Sunday Night or Monday Night game whatever it was
Speaker 3: last year that they played together. So I'm out on
Speaker 3: the total because there's so many outcomes between these offenses.
Speaker 3: You just don't know what you're gonna see. If these
Speaker 3: guys start breaking off big plays like Chubb and Haunt
Speaker 3: or Lamar, that changes the dynamic quite a bit. Or look,
Speaker 3: if anything, I would lean towards the under because of
Speaker 3: what Baker Mayfield has been unable to do in the
Speaker 3: passing game and his health. And we'll see what happens
Speaker 3: when they come out of the by if that rest
Speaker 3: time has any any help whatsoever to him. But I
Speaker 3: don't know at this point in time. To me, like
Speaker 3: I said, I think the best money you're getting is
Speaker 3: that plus money on the money line with the Ravens,
Speaker 3: so I wouldn't even screw around with anything else. Game.
Speaker 2: Only a mother could love the Falcons visiting the Panthers.
Speaker 2: The Panthers are laying three, and the total at forty
Speaker 2: three and a half sounds like Cam is still gonna
Speaker 2: be the starter, which does make sense. I mean, putting
Speaker 2: aside that terrible game Falcons, you know they fight. I'll
Speaker 2: give that to the Falcons there they fight Panthers off
Speaker 2: of by both teams sort of still in the playoff
Speaker 2: hunt at five and seven, so this is kind of
Speaker 2: a make or break game for both of them. Again,
Speaker 2: Panthers out home off the by laying three small total
Speaker 2: forty three and a half.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a very small total. And I really like
Speaker 3: the Carolina defense. I still do. And it's just a
Speaker 3: matter of how much offense you're going to get from
Speaker 3: Cam Newton. So we had a two plays in one game,
Speaker 3: then he had a good game, and then he had
Speaker 3: a wretched game. So does he have more time with
Speaker 3: the playbook, more time to practice, more time to figure
Speaker 3: things out? Theoretically, yes, and you have a lesser opponent
Speaker 3: here in the Falcons in my opinion, So I think
Speaker 3: the Carolina defense probably gets a touchdown or at least
Speaker 3: puts them in position for a touchdown this game. I
Speaker 3: think that to me is the big difference maker. So
Speaker 3: the three on the side of the Carolina Panthers is
Speaker 3: where I would lean in this game. The forty three
Speaker 3: and a half seems about right to me though. That's
Speaker 3: why I don't care for the over under in this game.
Speaker 3: So I would just take Carolina with the three because
Speaker 3: I do think that they can probably you know, end
Speaker 3: up with something looking like a twenty seven to twenty
Speaker 3: kind of game in this one, and that would go over.
Speaker 3: But once again, you know, we could also see Atlanta
Speaker 3: score you know, thirteen in this game and all of
Speaker 3: a sudden not nearly as excited of it. Over.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do lean a little bit towards the under,
Speaker 2: just because I mean, basically, why would you know.
Speaker 1: The word is that Brady was fired because he didn't run.
Speaker 2: The ball enough, And you know, I feel like, you've
Speaker 2: got Cam and you've got Hubbard, and I just think
Speaker 2: they're going to run the ball NonStop. They're not going
Speaker 2: to want to put this in Cam's hands here to
Speaker 2: try to make something happen that's going to lean itself
Speaker 2: towards the under a little bit as the clock continues
Speaker 2: to wind, and I don't really have faith that the
Speaker 2: Falcons are going to be able to put up a
Speaker 2: ton of points here against they rested in angry Panthers defense,
Speaker 2: So I leaned the under. I'm not going to back
Speaker 2: either side on this one. It's just to stay away
Speaker 2: in a divisional game with Cam coming off, you know,
Speaker 2: a game that made you know, Mac Jones look like,
Speaker 2: you know, the greatest passer in the world. So I'm
Speaker 2: staying away from that. Cam Newton, what did you think.
Speaker 3: Of the Joe Brady firing?
Speaker 1: By the way, curious where did I what?
Speaker 3: What do you think about the Joe Brady situation? There
Speaker 3: don't no man like its veruzzling to me.
Speaker 2: It was, yeah, I was surprised that you got to
Speaker 2: blame somebody, I think right, like, you know you the
Speaker 2: Panthers are all in on this year, like that's a thing,
Speaker 2: like when they traded for Gilmore and they you know,
Speaker 2: they make signings every single time they've got anything.
Speaker 1: They've been all in.
Speaker 2: And the bottom line is, I don't really know what
Speaker 2: you can expect to do when your greatest offensive asset
Speaker 2: me and Christian McCaffrey misses the entire game, and you
Speaker 2: have a poo poo platter of revolving quarterbacks like Sam
Speaker 2: Donald played very well the first few games, and I
Speaker 2: think that tricked them into thinking that Sam Donald was
Speaker 2: the answer. And I think you and I probably you
Speaker 2: live in Jersey. I'm a jer you probably understood that
Speaker 2: he wasn't. So I think it seems a little strange
Speaker 2: to me to fire him midseason. But they really do
Speaker 2: seem like a team that had playoff aspirations, which they did,
Speaker 2: of course, and I have a sprinkle on them to
Speaker 2: make the playoffs, and they just got They got to
Speaker 2: blame somebody, man.
Speaker 3: So that's how we have a college coaching job. In
Speaker 3: about two seconds, yeah.
Speaker 2: Sure, absolutely, Jaguars visiting the Titans. The Titans are laying
Speaker 2: nine and a half total forty four.
Speaker 3: Let's see, let's bring this one of the Titans.
Speaker 1: This is the game.
Speaker 3: If you're the Titans, you kind of win this and
Speaker 3: you control your destiny no matter how many injuries you've had.
Speaker 3: Nine and a half seems like a big number for
Speaker 3: an offense that's this gross. At this point in time,
Speaker 3: I know they're talking about getting Julio Jones back. I
Speaker 3: just I just look, the Titans should win this game.
Speaker 3: I'm sure the Titans will win this game. Nine and
Speaker 3: a half just seems like a really big number for
Speaker 3: this offense right now. So I would actually lean to
Speaker 3: the Jacksonville side of this that did take the points
Speaker 3: with the nine and a half, just because and it's
Speaker 3: it's not because I have any confidence in Jacksonville whatsoever,
Speaker 3: but it just feels as though the Tennessee Titans offense
Speaker 3: right now is not equipped for that kind of a spreads.
Speaker 3: That's my problem here.
Speaker 2: It's actually eight and a half for you, Joe at Fandel,
Speaker 2: it's nine and a half everywhere else. So Fandel's sort
Speaker 2: of drawn a line in the said, yeah, nine and
Speaker 2: a half.
Speaker 1: I agree.
Speaker 2: I like the Jaguars as well, which is it's the
Speaker 2: first time, Joe that I think I've said I'm willing
Speaker 2: to back.
Speaker 1: The Jaguars this right now. And again, yeah, Julio has
Speaker 1: been designated to return from injured reserve.
Speaker 2: That doesn't mean he's gonna play this weekend, but it
Speaker 2: does mean that he is twenty one days and it's
Speaker 2: a good sign.
Speaker 1: For his availability.
Speaker 2: And yeah, this is a game. Titans need to win
Speaker 2: this game, like, I mean, there's no doubt about it.
Speaker 2: At this point, we're joking about the Colts and what
Speaker 2: they were to win the division right at this point there,
Speaker 2: what was it, Joe, seventy to one.
Speaker 3: Yeah, seventy to one for the Colts. Now, look, if
Speaker 3: Jacksonville somehow pulls off a huge upside here against Tennessee,
Speaker 3: things we go very dicey, very quickly. It's fascinating that
Speaker 3: eighty percent of the money is on the Tennessee side
Speaker 3: of this game early on.
Speaker 1: That I'm sure the Lakes haven't hit it yet right the.
Speaker 3: Last No, they haven't. But I'm saying that it's the
Speaker 3: lazy of the general public just saying Titans Jaguar. That's
Speaker 3: exactly why you take this nine and a half when you.
Speaker 2: Got it's going to be a pros Joe's game, man,
Speaker 2: Like it really is, right. I think people are going
Speaker 2: to be like the Titans that you know, they're coming
Speaker 2: off the by they're going to get things right, and
Speaker 2: they are extremely well coached, and the Jaguars are dumpter fire,
Speaker 2: but the Titan.
Speaker 1: Actually I lean the under as.
Speaker 2: Well, Joe, because I do think that the Titans are
Speaker 2: going to do in this game is they are not
Speaker 2: going to take chances. They're gonna you know, relax, there's
Speaker 2: going to be a lot of you know, do you
Speaker 2: have to foreman, There's going to be a lot of
Speaker 2: Dontrell Hilliard, maybe some Lulio Jones, but they're going to
Speaker 2: take their spots again without who even with him man,
Speaker 2: like you know he's been battling injury again. What are
Speaker 2: you looking at him in that? Nick Westbrookakina, right, that's
Speaker 2: your guy.
Speaker 3: It's twenty thirteen. Gets this done for us?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I I you know the underwear at forty four
Speaker 2: and again unders are disgusting, but I'm willing to.
Speaker 3: Be unders on forty four.
Speaker 2: It's really cross Saints visiting the Jets. The Saints are
Speaker 2: laying just had dead number here at five and a half.
Speaker 2: Another load a lot of all.
Speaker 1: Totals this week, Joe forty three and a half here
Speaker 1: for this one.
Speaker 3: So it's a lot of low totals last week too.
Speaker 3: And I think it's also indicative of the quarterback player.
Speaker 3: You're getting to be getting a lot of backup quarterback,
Speaker 3: secondary quarterback, so you know when that starts to happen
Speaker 3: and you're also getting that point in the year too,
Speaker 3: where it's going to change in the next few weeks
Speaker 3: when defenses start checking out and all of a sudden,
Speaker 3: these tolls are going to get obliterated because teams are
Speaker 3: going to just say, what times my playing reservation? Oh yes,
Speaker 3: I'm you know, I'm out of here.
Speaker 2: And it's also it's also cold, like it's something where
Speaker 2: you know, I think teams get a little more conservative
Speaker 2: and they run the ball a little bit, a little
Speaker 2: more smashed.
Speaker 3: Yeah, but this this is gonna flip in two weeks considerably.
Speaker 3: So when you're looking at these low numbers. Now, when
Speaker 3: you get two weeks seventeen and eighteen, look for overs.
Speaker 3: Even on games you don't think it's gonna be an
Speaker 3: over because, like I said, defenses just kind of start
Speaker 3: two fold of the tense, and nobody wants to get
Speaker 3: hit for no reason, to get hurt when they've got
Speaker 3: contracts coming up in things of that nature. New Orleans
Speaker 3: should win this one in a walk.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 3: And defensively, certainly they match up. It's funny because you know,
Speaker 3: the Jets for some reason feel more competitive when Zach
Speaker 3: Wilson's not playing quarterback. For me, but I gotta give
Speaker 3: him credit to have a win a couple weeks ago.
Speaker 3: Both not a good game against the Eagles this past week, I.
Speaker 1: Mean over the Texans, Joe, Let's.
Speaker 3: I know, it's still he got a w. You beat
Speaker 3: the Titans, you.
Speaker 1: Beat the Texts. I also, like, I'm not saying anything
Speaker 1: bad about Zach Wilson ninety.
Speaker 2: He has not played well, certainly in the in the
Speaker 2: second part of the season, but I want to make
Speaker 2: it clear, like I'm not drawing any conclusions on him
Speaker 2: long term yet they need a better team around him.
Speaker 2: But yeah, it's really hard to have any confidence in
Speaker 2: against against the decent defense.
Speaker 3: Well, I just think the New Orleans roster right now
Speaker 3: overmatches them. And New Orleans has a lot of problems, granted,
Speaker 3: but the biggest problem they have is in the coverage,
Speaker 3: and that's something that the Jets are not a prolific
Speaker 3: passing team. So to me, it's that five and a
Speaker 3: half is pretty safe with New Orleans. I'm actually surprised
Speaker 3: only fifty six percent of the money early on has
Speaker 3: gone to the New Orleans side of this game at the.
Speaker 1: Five and a half.
Speaker 3: That is actually a little surprising to me.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know, man like, it's probably just a
Speaker 2: game I want to stay away from.
Speaker 1: I could see the Jet.
Speaker 2: I mean, the Saints are really not playing like a
Speaker 2: very good football team here. Joe there, you know, and
Speaker 2: Hill obviously is the quarterback. He can run. They should
Speaker 2: just run them, you know, in the wildcat every play.
Speaker 2: That's all unless Kamara comes back here, which again we
Speaker 2: have question marks about. But they should just run them
Speaker 2: every play, and they could probably put up a touchdown
Speaker 2: on you know, seventy five percent their drives just doing
Speaker 2: that without throwing the ball at all, little mac jone style.
Speaker 2: But it's really as as sort of mediocre as the
Speaker 2: Saints have been of late, it's really difficult to see
Speaker 2: them off the mini by here coming on Thursday, needing
Speaker 2: a win again five and seven. It puts you in
Speaker 2: contention for that seventh playoff spot right now. We're just
Speaker 2: talking about it with the Falcons and the Panthers.
Speaker 1: They need win.
Speaker 2: They're gonna come out, They're gonna play angry, they're gonna
Speaker 2: play hard. It's just gonna it's tough to see the
Speaker 2: Jets keeping it close. At the same time, just this
Speaker 2: dead number Matt Prout always has like when it's five
Speaker 2: and a half, four and a half, five and a half,
Speaker 2: books are just kind of throwing up their hands and
Speaker 2: being like, I don't really know what we're doing right now,
Speaker 2: so I'll probably stay away from it entirely. This next one, though, Joe,
Speaker 2: find myself intrigued by is. I just took a look
Speaker 2: at it as I looked ahead to our next game.
Speaker 2: The Raiders are visiting the Chiefs. The Chiefs have won
Speaker 2: what five in a row? I think nine and a
Speaker 2: half They are laying to the Raiders. The total is
Speaker 2: pretty high, forty eight and a half. What's your gut reaction.
Speaker 1: This one, Joe? Is that about right?
Speaker 3: Two?
Speaker 2: Nine and a half?
Speaker 3: You know what? It's The nine and a half is
Speaker 3: correct for the Chiefs of yesteryear. For the Chiefs of
Speaker 3: this year, it's a little puzzling, but it feels like
Speaker 3: something that they could handle. My initial gut reaction is
Speaker 3: the under though in the forty eight and a half,
Speaker 3: because they just haven't looked great. And the hard part
Speaker 3: is because now we're gonna go back and look a
Speaker 3: couple weeks ago and how Patrick Mahomes absolutely dismantled this team, right, remember,
Speaker 3: right one hundred yards against him a few weeks ago.
Speaker 3: So I think that's why you're seeing this nine and
Speaker 3: a half, and that's why you're seeing all this confidence
Speaker 3: in Patrick Mahomes all of a sudden after it's not
Speaker 3: even Patrick Mahomes, it's really the offense is a unit altogether.
Speaker 3: And he says it in the press comp too. You
Speaker 3: saw him this past week. It's like, yeah, we won,
Speaker 3: but we're still you know, missing opportunities, and they are
Speaker 3: and the offensive line still has not really gelled together yet.
Speaker 3: And it's week fourteen, So if it hasn't shelled yet,
Speaker 3: I don't know what we're waiting for at this point.
Speaker 3: This was the high point in their season though, playing
Speaker 3: the Raiders, it's ken you do it twice, and honestly,
Speaker 3: the way the Kansasity defense has played this year, I
Speaker 3: think the safest thing to do is just spent the
Speaker 3: under here in the forty eight and a half, because
Speaker 3: there's two things going in your favor. Number one is
Speaker 3: the Las Vegas offense. Right Derek Waller's injured, you just
Speaker 3: lose Kenny and Drake. They're kind of falling apart here
Speaker 3: at the end. I think they're kind of like paced
Speaker 3: together with glue and all kinds of things, and they're
Speaker 3: just like glue sticks, not even real Elmer's glue, like
Speaker 3: glue sticks. Just peel them right apart. And then the
Speaker 3: other thing is the Kansasity defense, which over the last
Speaker 3: month or so play significantly better. You put those two
Speaker 3: things together, and I think you get the Under in
Speaker 3: this game in the forty eight and a half. That's
Speaker 3: what I would go to, and I would not miss
Speaker 3: around with the nine at all.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna die here while I'm coughing, Joe, I think
Speaker 2: I like both the Under and the Raiders.
Speaker 1: You know, it's scary. I agree.
Speaker 2: The Chiefs are content as they should be right now
Speaker 2: because their defense has played so much better of late.
Speaker 2: They are content to rely on their defense, which again
Speaker 2: I think we just talked about that that leads us
Speaker 2: towards the Under, both of us. But their offense right now, Joe,
Speaker 2: as much as they did that against the Raiders, like
Speaker 2: right now, they just do not look They almost don't
Speaker 2: look interested necessarily and even putting up these giant points,
Speaker 2: right they look interested in avoiding taking these too many
Speaker 2: chances and just playing conservatively and not pushing it. And
Speaker 2: you know, Mahomes also still doesn't look like Mahomes like
Speaker 2: that much, at least with the offense, like he's dancing around,
Speaker 2: dancing around, and then he's just firing it in there
Speaker 2: and sort of these short throws. I think the Raiders
Speaker 2: were able to keep this close enough, and I think
Speaker 2: this is a game. You know, you come off a
Speaker 2: Raiders of poor effort here in.
Speaker 1: This last game. I think they keep it close enough here.
Speaker 2: You know, I'd love it if it got to ten,
Speaker 2: of course, but I mean at fox Bet it's nine.
Speaker 2: At points Bet it's nine, so probably closer to there
Speaker 2: than it would be to ten. I think you'd see
Speaker 2: a lot of Sharp's hammer and if.
Speaker 1: It got to there.
Speaker 2: But I still like them at nine and a half.
Speaker 2: But I do like the under as well at forty
Speaker 2: eight and a half. I mean, the Chiefs are content
Speaker 2: to rely on their defense, and their defense is playing
Speaker 2: very well right now. So this strikes me as a
Speaker 2: not close Joe, but closer than people expect lower scoring games.
Speaker 2: So I think we're on the same sign on the total.
Speaker 2: Let's go to the Cowboys visiting the football team. The
Speaker 2: Cowboys on the road are laying four total. Here is
Speaker 2: forty eight and a half. Washington is they're on a
Speaker 2: roll here, Joe. I mean, they're relying on that run
Speaker 2: game here with Gibson, They're no problem.
Speaker 1: Giving him the ball.
Speaker 2: They've got the defense despite the loss of Chase Young,
Speaker 2: playing pretty well. Overall, well coached. Cowboys here are you know,
Speaker 2: a little hit or myths, but they come off the
Speaker 2: win against the Saints.
Speaker 1: What do you think?
Speaker 3: I think this number should be six on the side
Speaker 3: of the Dallas Cowboys. I think the line is wrong
Speaker 3: here personally, and whenever I think the line is wrong
Speaker 3: and I want to jump on it right away. So
Speaker 3: I actually think the Cowboys with the four is great
Speaker 3: because yes, what you're seeing is a Washington team that
Speaker 3: is very competitive and they play hard. But I just
Speaker 3: think that they're going to be outmatched here. I think
Speaker 3: if you look at some of these games that Washington's
Speaker 3: played of late, you know, some of the competition, they
Speaker 3: always played the Tampa Bay Bucks tough. I don't know why,
Speaker 3: they just do. Some weird teams just have better team's numbers.
Speaker 3: It's just a fact of life. Sometimes. I can't tell
Speaker 3: you how many frustrating times I used to watch amazing
Speaker 3: Patriot teams go into Miami and get their rear ended
Speaker 3: hand into them for no reason, and we all look
Speaker 3: at each other, what just happened? Why are we losing
Speaker 3: in Miami. I don't understand that Tom Brady doesn't like
Speaker 3: the heat. Apparently it's fine because now he plays in Tampa.
Speaker 3: He wins Super Bowl's there. But to me, this Dallas offense,
Speaker 3: especially with healthy CD Lamb, you can really, you know,
Speaker 3: air it out here. And they've had some injuries to
Speaker 3: this defense of Washington, So Washington it's an outstanding job.
Speaker 3: They're well coached team, they have great effort. Antonio Gibson,
Speaker 3: you're right, hows look good. But to me, it's the
Speaker 3: Cowboys and it's the over in this one, and I
Speaker 3: think this is actually going to be a very fun
Speaker 3: fantasy game to be a part of. But the forty
Speaker 3: and a half I like the over, and the four
Speaker 3: I like right now because I think the numbers should
Speaker 3: be five and a half or six for the Dallas Cowboys.
Speaker 3: I think they are sally be a little bit extra
Speaker 3: time to rest. I think they are favorites in this game,
Speaker 3: and I know it's on the road, and that's probably
Speaker 3: why you're getting the four, But I just feel like
Speaker 3: the line's wrong.
Speaker 1: Dan.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know, man, I don't love it. I
Speaker 2: either side of the spread. I'm not running to take
Speaker 2: Washington whatsoever. I just don't have a good bead right
Speaker 2: now on the Cowboys.
Speaker 1: They look a little disjointed.
Speaker 2: But what you should have really for the first time, Joe,
Speaker 2: I think is everybody kind of healthy for the Cowboys
Speaker 2: on their offense, right, Like, at least in terms of
Speaker 2: the skill players, because Amari Cooper, we knew he'd be
Speaker 2: limited last week, right, we knew that he wouldn't be getting.
Speaker 1: The normal snap count.
Speaker 2: Zeke at times running looked like me running right like,
Speaker 2: just sort of like try to not hurt himself. But
Speaker 2: he did loosen up a little bit as the game
Speaker 2: went on, and again Pollard looks good.
Speaker 1: So they should have all their offensive weapons. I could
Speaker 1: see that.
Speaker 2: One of the reasons why I don't love the over
Speaker 2: is because Washington is so run heavy and so conservative.
Speaker 2: I mean, Washington is able to put together these long
Speaker 2: drives because every single time they gain a first down,
Speaker 2: they're gaining thirteen yards, right, So it's like one of
Speaker 2: these things where they take three plays to gain thirteen yards,
Speaker 2: three more plays to gain fourteen yards before you know
Speaker 2: they have a ten minute drive going on where they
Speaker 2: settle for a field goal. So I don't lean the
Speaker 2: over of anything. I lean the under, but it's probably
Speaker 2: more of a stay away but a divisional game, man,
Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't want to bet against Washington
Speaker 2: right now, so I'll just stay.
Speaker 3: With There's more piece to keep in mind for as
Speaker 3: landing Collins being out, because Collins is playing very well
Speaker 3: and he's very fersatile. He's a guy that plays safety
Speaker 3: you can play linebacker like. He's a guy that you
Speaker 3: could get a lot out of. I think this is
Speaker 3: the game where that gets exposed because I don't think
Speaker 3: they've hit since that injury. I don't think they've had
Speaker 3: somebody on their schedule where they look it and go, okay,
Speaker 3: really got it, Like you gotta worry abou Dallas throw
Speaker 3: the football on you big time. So I think that's
Speaker 3: where it kind of the rubber meets the road here
Speaker 3: in this one. And I think that's where you know
Speaker 3: the combination of Chase Young in the past rush of
Speaker 3: the combination of Atlantic Collins being out too, I think
Speaker 3: that's a bad combination for this particular.
Speaker 1: Matchup, Seahawks visiting the Texans.
Speaker 2: The Seahawks are laying seven and a half with the
Speaker 2: toba of forty two and a half. We've got no
Speaker 2: Torod Taylor. It doesn't really matter right now. He's gonna
Speaker 2: be out for this game. So you got David Smells.
Speaker 2: The Seahawks riding high after their big win over the
Speaker 2: forty nine ers, saved quote unquote their season, but laying
Speaker 2: more in a touchdown here.
Speaker 3: What do you think I think Torod Taylor's Charlie Brown.
Speaker 3: I just I feel so terrible for toront telm Nothing
Speaker 3: ever works out for this guy. Good grief, Good grief,
Speaker 3: mister Taylor. I just want something, you know. This one
Speaker 3: scares the hell out of me because theoretically, yeah, Seaws
Speaker 3: should go in there and just blow their doors off.
Speaker 3: But I have zero confidence in Seattle right now, so
Speaker 3: this game feels kind of like a stay away of
Speaker 3: anything to me. Maybe I go to the under on
Speaker 3: the forty two because the inept to suit of the
Speaker 3: Houston offense. That's probably the safest thing here, rather than
Speaker 3: to screwn it all with the seven and a half,
Speaker 3: because who knows what happens in garbage time in some
Speaker 3: of these games, or or if Seattle can even hold
Speaker 3: the lead. I don't know. All I know is the
Speaker 3: forty two and a half, even though it's a very
Speaker 3: low number, feels like the safest investment here. But this
Speaker 3: is not a game that I feel good about investing
Speaker 3: because Seattle has given me very little confidence. Despite a
Speaker 3: big win last week, that's great, there's still a lot
Speaker 3: of issues with this team, and once again big Indivision game,
Speaker 3: big emotional win. Then you go on the road against Houston,
Speaker 3: do you come out flat? And if you do, that
Speaker 3: certainly helps with this under.
Speaker 2: I think if I'm going to have a plan this game,
Speaker 2: I'll tease the Seahawks down like test Fair one. So
Speaker 2: I mean at draftings is one, it's seven, so I
Speaker 2: could tease them to one. But at one and a half,
Speaker 2: maybe that's it. That No, I don't want to force
Speaker 2: myself to watch this game. I don't want to have
Speaker 2: to be relying on the Seahawks to cover more than
Speaker 2: seven points, right even though gun to my head, Joe,
Speaker 2: I mean I'd probably take them at seven and a half,
Speaker 2: just because I think the more plausible that the Texans
Speaker 2: are so bad like they're so bad and they look
Speaker 2: disinterested right now, which understandable completely. But it's again that
Speaker 2: I think the Seahawks could as Wilson gets a little healthier,
Speaker 2: a little more accurate, I could see them trying to
Speaker 2: use this as a as a jumping off point for
Speaker 2: DK Metcalf, trying to throw a little bit get their
Speaker 2: passing game right in the game. They should win handily,
Speaker 2: so probably stay away from me if anything else, t
Speaker 2: use the Seahawks down. Lions visiting the Broncos. Fresh off
Speaker 2: the giant win for the Lions, the totals forty two.
Speaker 2: They are getting eight points here in Denver from the Broncos.
Speaker 2: You know, the Broncos are again. You know they look
Speaker 2: pretty terrible against the Chiefs. They lost that game Handley.
Speaker 2: They need to bounce back here. I mean letdown.
Speaker 1: Spot for the Lions, Joe after the big win or what.
Speaker 3: Well, the Lions have been competitive. It happens like they
Speaker 3: play hard. The problem with the Lions is they don't
Speaker 3: have talent, so they don't match up well and then
Speaker 3: they always end up falling short and the quarterback play
Speaker 3: doesn't help them if they don't have weapons. DeAndre Swift's
Speaker 3: injury doesn't help, you know, if you're gonna laugh at this,
Speaker 3: but if Melbourne Gordon's out for this game too, I
Speaker 3: like the Denver side because I think Javonte Williams looks
Speaker 3: that good in this backfield, and they have so much
Speaker 3: trouble there with the run that I think Gavante's can
Speaker 3: just run a muck on them. If Gordon's back in
Speaker 3: this mix and you get more to that sixty to
Speaker 3: forty fifty to fifty split, I actually like the Detroit side.
Speaker 3: So this is a game that I think you wait
Speaker 3: for a little bit more news until you have it.
Speaker 3: But my initial instinct right now is to take the
Speaker 3: eight points in Detroit because Denver is not exactly a
Speaker 3: world beating offense no matter what, and it feels like
Speaker 3: Detroit once again. You know, they just got rewarded for
Speaker 3: their competitiveness. Yes, a very emotional game, but I think
Speaker 3: that they are better than some of the two and
Speaker 3: three win teams that are out there Detroit, at least
Speaker 3: the way they've played this year in terms of effort level.
Speaker 3: So I'll take the eight points with Detroit right now.
Speaker 3: That's my instinct. Dan the forty two, I mean, my
Speaker 3: instinct says over in this one too, because the Denver
Speaker 3: defense can be very inconsistent at times. But what do
Speaker 3: you think about this line so far?
Speaker 1: I think I don't love it.
Speaker 2: But if I had to go one way, it would
Speaker 2: be the Lions, you know, because that just betting on
Speaker 2: the Broncos to beat a team by more than a
Speaker 2: touchdown right now just seems foolhardy, like just that. I mean,
Speaker 2: they can, of course I have, but just to have
Speaker 2: confidence in them being able to do that, I don't
Speaker 2: have it. And the Lions, like, you're right, Joe. The
Speaker 2: biggest thing with the Lions is they will play hard.
Speaker 2: And we make fun of Dan Campbell, but that team
Speaker 2: plays hard to the very quarters four quarters, baby, all
Speaker 2: the time.
Speaker 1: So the total I don't want to get near.
Speaker 2: I assume the Broncos are going to win this game,
Speaker 2: but I think the Lions are going to play and
Speaker 2: you know, Teddy looks banged up, you know, you know,
Speaker 2: just generally battling through. They haven't found a way to
Speaker 2: utilize any of their wide receivers. Unfortunately, as good as
Speaker 2: you know, all those guys are, so strikes me as
Speaker 2: a game that the Broncos probably win. By like, you know,
Speaker 2: somewhere between three and seven. So I'd probably take the Lions,
Speaker 2: but not a game I'm running to take.
Speaker 1: What about the charge.
Speaker 2: Joe at home here against the Giants that can census
Speaker 2: ten and a half? There's ten's out there, but there's
Speaker 2: a lot of ten and a half. The total is
Speaker 2: forty five and a half. I guess the thought is
Speaker 2: we're gonna get Jake from I guess because Daniel Jones
Speaker 2: is all but ruled out right now. I've got Mike
Speaker 2: Lennon with the concussion, but you have Keenan Allen out
Speaker 2: most likely not he's on the COVID list. He did
Speaker 2: test positive, so I don't know if he's vaccinate or
Speaker 2: if we've heard anything on that, but I guess he's
Speaker 2: not technically ruled out yet for this weekend, but I
Speaker 2: assume that he's probably gonna be out.
Speaker 1: It's ten and a half.
Speaker 2: I mean, you feel like they could maybe score no
Speaker 2: points offensively Joe and still find a way to win
Speaker 2: this game just based on their defense.
Speaker 1: But what do you think You're a ten and a half?
Speaker 3: You know, I don't usually like these huge numbers, typically speaking,
Speaker 3: But whats going on with the Giants offense. And it's
Speaker 3: not even just the court. I mean the quarterback play's
Speaker 3: enough right now, right yeah, just downgrade potentially to Jake
Speaker 3: from or Mike Lennon RNY of those goods. And then
Speaker 3: you throw in that Shepherd's been hurt and Tony's been
Speaker 3: her and nobody's practicing together, nobody's working together, and Dalladay
Speaker 3: has been a complete bust and Sekwon Barkley is you know,
Speaker 3: just uninspiring at this point in this offense. I think
Speaker 3: the ten, and actually I love to lock in the
Speaker 3: ten wherever I could before you get to the hook.
Speaker 3: That's what I would like to say.
Speaker 1: Spots out there are a couple of spots out there
Speaker 1: where it's ten.
Speaker 3: Yeah, take the ten where you can get the ten,
Speaker 3: and take the Chargers because, like I said, it's just
Speaker 3: there's so many issues here, and when you don't have
Speaker 3: your personnel working together on the field, and then you
Speaker 3: have lesser personnel leading it at quarterback, that is a
Speaker 3: really tough selle to go on the road across country
Speaker 3: and play a team like the Chargers who has a
Speaker 3: really good pass rush, right like Bosa is going to
Speaker 3: be on top of whoever's playing quarterback most likely. And
Speaker 3: then on top of which, they are very opportunistic secondary,
Speaker 3: like they're they're hit and miss. Which is why the
Speaker 3: Chargers are seven and five and don't have eight or
Speaker 3: nine wins is because sometimes they play a little fast
Speaker 3: and loose on the defensive side of the football. And
Speaker 3: because of that, what I believe is that you're gonna
Speaker 3: probably in this game where you don't have a great
Speaker 3: offense and loose is gonna work because the Giants are
Speaker 3: gonna make a mistake. So I think i'd lock in
Speaker 3: the ten where I could get rid of the hook
Speaker 3: and take the Chargers. Ignore the overunder because you have
Speaker 3: no idea what you're gonna get out of. That's the thing.
Speaker 3: People would be tempted this, like, oh, it's gonna be
Speaker 3: a blowout, let's take the Chargers, right. But for this
Speaker 3: to happen, you have to get the New York Giants
Speaker 3: to do their part. I have concerns if the Giants
Speaker 3: can do their part in this game depending on who's
Speaker 3: playing quarterback. Therefore, go to the ten, stay away from
Speaker 3: the over under.
Speaker 2: I agree the ten right now is at BETMGM and
Speaker 2: said Fox. Bet our books Joe are at ten and
Speaker 2: a half. Yeah, I'd go with the Chargers, but it's,
Speaker 2: you know, such a bizarre game here with everything that's
Speaker 2: going on. People who listen to this podcasts regularly know
Speaker 2: which way I'm going to go in this game, Joe.
Speaker 2: This is the forty nine Ers visiting the Bengals. Both
Speaker 2: teams off tough losses here. You know, the forty nine
Speaker 2: Ers kept it close. Bengals just got you know, their
Speaker 2: butts kicked in this game by the Chargers. Forty nine
Speaker 2: Ers here are getting a point in Cincinnati, Joe, and
Speaker 2: then totals forty seven and a half. What do you
Speaker 2: think about this one?
Speaker 3: This is the fascinating game of the week, right this
Speaker 3: this screams run away. But if you want to take
Speaker 3: a stand here, the only thing that even gives me
Speaker 3: pausey at the Bengals is that pinky of Joe Burrow.
Speaker 3: Because it sounds like, oh it's a pinky's it is
Speaker 3: a big deal because you could see the pain that
Speaker 3: he had on the sidelines trying to throw the football
Speaker 3: and work through it. And that's that finger that when
Speaker 3: you throw the football, it really gives you that that
Speaker 3: control at the very end there that helps with that spiral,
Speaker 3: So that is something that is concerning to me. Now,
Speaker 3: is then concerning enough to go to the San Francisco
Speaker 3: side for me? No, because I'm not a big fan
Speaker 3: of the fot and hours this year. I think they've
Speaker 3: fallen into everything breaking right. Deebo Samuel's health has a
Speaker 3: lot to do with this game. If Deebo's back in
Speaker 3: this game, that makes me stay away from it. But
Speaker 3: if he's out of this game, I would, you know,
Speaker 3: favor the Cincinnati side. It's very tricky. I think you're
Speaker 3: looking at the lines too. You're getting the minus one
Speaker 3: ten on the one, and you're getting minus fIF team
Speaker 3: for the Bengals to win outright, So you might as
Speaker 3: well just take the point if you think like there's
Speaker 3: no reason, there's no incentive to just take the Bengals
Speaker 3: to win on the money line just doesn't exist. So
Speaker 3: you might as well just go ahead and take the one,
Speaker 3: and go ahead and take Cincinnati at home and take
Speaker 3: because they because they did show up eventually in that
Speaker 3: game against the Chargers, and then there were a couple
Speaker 3: of moments like Jamar Chase didn't come up with that ball.
Speaker 1: If he does, maybe a very different game.
Speaker 3: It's a very right. So there were moments there where
Speaker 3: they did play catch up, but it just they fell short.
Speaker 3: And this is what a young team has, where they
Speaker 3: go through these growing pains where they're really you know,
Speaker 3: they have really good talent. They you know, start beating
Speaker 3: the Pittsburgh Steelers, right, but then they don't understand that
Speaker 3: you have to prepare and let that go for the
Speaker 3: next week and it doesn't matter that team is gonna
Speaker 3: come in your building this competitive, they're gonna whoop your ass.
Speaker 3: So I think that San Francisco is a perfect example
Speaker 3: of Okay, now you gotta be ready. You're gonna let
Speaker 3: two West Coast teams here back to back whoop you
Speaker 3: at home. I don't think so. So I like the
Speaker 3: Cincinnati side of this one too. How do you feel
Speaker 3: about this one? Because this one's very close.
Speaker 2: I basically have spent four weeks in a row fading
Speaker 2: the Bengals and it mostly has not worked out. It
Speaker 2: did this bad, it did this past week. I think
Speaker 2: the Bengals are a very very overrated team. I think
Speaker 2: the four nine Ers are much better team. Just just
Speaker 2: putting aside everything and again, you know, I look at DVA.
Speaker 2: I think it's just like a very easy, sort of
Speaker 2: just general way to look at the teams. The forty
Speaker 2: nine ers total total DVA seventh, the Bengals are eighteenth.
Speaker 2: Like I think that's just a very very simple way
Speaker 2: to look at the fact that the forty nine ers
Speaker 2: are a much better team.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 2: The forty nine ers, Joe, you noted, don't know if
Speaker 2: we're gonna get Debo back. When you get a one
Speaker 2: to two week injury, Joe, I always take the over,
Speaker 2: so I assume he's gonna be out this week. You
Speaker 2: also have Elijah Mitchell. My guess is he's not gonna
Speaker 2: play this week because he got the big hit, came
Speaker 2: back in the game, and then subsequently the.
Speaker 1: Next day has concussion symptoms.
Speaker 2: That's bad. They also don't have Jeff Wilson. That's bad
Speaker 2: because he had then flare up Trey Sermons on IR.
Speaker 2: So you might have Jamichael Hasty and Kyle Uschek and
Speaker 2: that's it in the run game. That really hurts. But
Speaker 2: this is a better team. You got the Pinky Joe,
Speaker 2: which you met. If word is bad, you know what
Speaker 2: I heard about Burrow Joe with the pinky is he's optimistic.
Speaker 2: He can play through it. That's not what you want
Speaker 2: to hear. You want to hear this is nothing. I'm
Speaker 2: totally fine, let's go. So the fact that he does
Speaker 2: have that, I think of word leaks that it's bad.
Speaker 1: That's bad.
Speaker 2: So this is a West Coast team again, as you mentioned,
Speaker 2: Joe coming east. But the Chargers didn't seem to have
Speaker 2: any problem. And also this is a four to twenty
Speaker 2: five game, which I think makes it a lot easier
Speaker 2: for their internal.
Speaker 1: Collaps right to sort of do that. So I'm on
Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers here.
Speaker 2: My guess is I will be taking them on Wednesday
Speaker 2: on Thursday on our Best Bets Show, because I am
Speaker 2: I am at this point fading the Bengals pretty hard.
Speaker 1: But that is just how Dan Harris does it this year,
Speaker 1: and it has not always worked out.
Speaker 3: You and I would have agreed last week on fading
Speaker 3: the Bank.
Speaker 1: You were on the Chargers as well.
Speaker 3: I was very much on the Childcat because whenever you
Speaker 3: have that big emotional victory for an individual apponent, especially
Speaker 3: the Steelers that have the team that's been whooping on you,
Speaker 3: and that was the third time in a row that
Speaker 3: they beat the Pittsburgh Steelers, and they beat them at
Speaker 3: halftime that game was over thirty.
Speaker 2: I was on the Steelers by the way on that
Speaker 2: game too because I I fade the Bengals.
Speaker 1: But yeah, they that's what after that soundspot right?
Speaker 3: You have to know that there's going to be that
Speaker 3: we're going to come out flat at least. Yeah, and
Speaker 3: the Chargers, you know we're not going to come out flat.
Speaker 3: The Chargers are going to are a very well coached team,
Speaker 3: and Staley's inn a really good job there. I really
Speaker 3: like him as a coach. I think that's a team that,
Speaker 3: you know, everyone who makes one of the Chargers are
Speaker 3: going to charge and all that stuff. I think you
Speaker 3: could throw that away. I don't think that's what Brandon
Speaker 3: Stale is about. And the preparation there I think is
Speaker 3: very good. And there's still, in a lot of ways
Speaker 3: a young team that's got to learn how to win.
Speaker 3: And last week I think was a really good, you know,
Speaker 3: fork in the road for them in the right direction.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I agree, it's a good one coming up, Joe.
Speaker 1: The Bills are visiting the box.
Speaker 2: The Bucks are Atlanta field goal fifty two and a
Speaker 2: half with the total here, Joe, you know, look the Bills,
Speaker 2: right now are a little bit of crossroads here, Joe.
Speaker 2: They're seven and five, Like they are seven and five
Speaker 2: at this point that that's miraculous to think about. Their
Speaker 2: offense has really not been able to get go side
Speaker 2: but the wind game, and they're gonna be stinging after
Speaker 2: that one. Like their offense has not been able to
Speaker 2: get it done. They obviously lost for Davius White for
Speaker 2: the season. That's a huge loss to their defense. The
Speaker 2: Bucks nine to three continue to roll no Antonio Brown,
Speaker 2: but it doesn't really matter.
Speaker 1: They can get it done any which way. How do
Speaker 1: you feel about this one?
Speaker 3: Yeah, it doesn't matter because Chris Godwin had fifteen catches.
Speaker 3: Rob Gronkowski had a dozen catches, So what does it matter.
Speaker 3: Hopefully there won't be hurricane wins in Tampa, like hopefully
Speaker 3: they can get rid of any kind of wind yer
Speaker 3: back to back weeks here or then. But the White
Speaker 3: injury is huge because that secondary was really the strength
Speaker 3: of the defense. And we take away your number one corner,
Speaker 3: everybody moves up a slot and number one corners are
Speaker 3: number one corners and the reason and not every team
Speaker 3: has a number one corner. And again, we talk so
Speaker 3: much on the fantasy side of things about offense, and
Speaker 3: I think that filters into so much of our wagering.
Speaker 3: We don't talk enough about defense on both sides, whether
Speaker 3: it be betting, whether it be fansy. We don't talk
Speaker 3: about what that impact is. And right now that injury
Speaker 3: is going to absolutely show up in this game against
Speaker 3: Tom Brady, because when you have an injury to the
Speaker 3: secondary like that, when you have a situation where you
Speaker 3: have a quarterback that's that good in terms of finding
Speaker 3: the open guy. This could be a really long day here.
Speaker 3: And Mike Hyde and Jordan Poyer are great players and
Speaker 3: all of them and I'm not taking anything away from
Speaker 3: those dudes. I love them. But this is tough here
Speaker 3: because Buffalo kind of suffers from the same problem that
Speaker 3: the Chiefs are suffering from, which is when you become
Speaker 3: one dimensional, you become predictable, and would become predictable, you
Speaker 3: become beatable in the NFL. And that's what's happened to
Speaker 3: both of these teams offensively, they become predictable. Now the
Speaker 3: Chiefs starting to work in cly Wortz a layer more,
Speaker 3: I think is a good thing, but there is no
Speaker 3: cech here for the Buffalo Bills. It ain't Matt Brida, okay,
Speaker 3: And it's not Devin Singletary or Zach Moss. So it's
Speaker 3: really Josh Allen kind of feeling the load here, and
Speaker 3: I worry that that's a lot to put on. And
Speaker 3: because when Josh Allen takes on too much, Josh Allen
Speaker 3: overplays and tries to get out of three tackles and
Speaker 3: then chuck the ball, and that's all bad Josh Allen.
Speaker 3: Those are the old bad habits. And if those habits
Speaker 3: come out against Tampa, you're gonna see issues here, and
Speaker 3: you're going to see you know, Tampa can also get
Speaker 3: to the quarterback a little bit to you. I don't know,
Speaker 3: man for this one. I feel pretty confident in Tampa
Speaker 3: at this three and and it's it's sad because I
Speaker 3: love Josh Allen. I love this Bills team. I was
Speaker 3: picking them to win the East this year, but this
Speaker 3: just feels like a seven and six situation when they
Speaker 3: are on that plane Sunday.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with you, Joe.
Speaker 2: I think you have to go with the Bucks right
Speaker 2: now at the field goal. And again, it has nothing
Speaker 2: to do with last night, like they could have very
Speaker 2: easily won that game obviously, and it was a crazy game.
Speaker 2: Dawson knock dropped a bunch of passes and stuff like that,
Speaker 2: but it was just I throw it at it's.
Speaker 3: The mental state of last night's game. Yeah, that you
Speaker 3: lost at home to the Patriots, and that was the
Speaker 3: one you didn't want to lose because it was your
Speaker 3: home game. If you split, it's fine, but you want
Speaker 3: to win the one at home because that's the one.
Speaker 3: It's a lock, and then you feel better going into
Speaker 3: Tampa because what happens is these losses start to mount
Speaker 3: and you start you start winning, losing, winning losing, and
Speaker 3: you start to have there's no confidence built. Yeah, that's
Speaker 3: the problem. If you go look in this game log
Speaker 3: for the Buffalo Bills, it's up and down, and that's
Speaker 3: not a good situation for them from a confidence standpoint.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: To me, they're just playing poorly routinely, right, Like, that's
Speaker 2: the bottom line. They just they haven't played well in
Speaker 2: a while offensively as well, and you mentioned it. They
Speaker 2: have a little bit of the Chiefs syndrome, where you know,
Speaker 2: opposing defense has started taking away the explosive plays.
Speaker 1: They can't run it.
Speaker 2: They don't like to go short, you know that much,
Speaker 2: and Alan holds the ball a little too long. So yeah,
Speaker 2: they are struggling right now, and it's just really difficult
Speaker 2: to see them on a short week going into Tampa
Speaker 2: and beating that team. So if you're getting three, like,
Speaker 2: if you're just laying three, I agree with you, Joe.
Speaker 2: I think you got to go with the Bucks here.
Speaker 2: I think the Bills are still overrated in the market
Speaker 2: right now. Bears are visiting the Packers on Sunday Night
Speaker 2: football twelve and a half right now at eleven and
Speaker 2: a half. For me at draftings, it's rare, Joe, I
Speaker 2: joke about this where you see a giant spread and
Speaker 2: a total of forty four, Like, it's just it's not often.
Speaker 2: Don't know who's going to be quarterback now, it's pain
Speaker 2: tolerance issue for dustin fields at this point. Don't know
Speaker 2: if Alan Robinson is going to be back. I don't
Speaker 2: know if it matters. And you've got again the Packers
Speaker 2: coming off the buy here, Aaron Jones is back, Tota
Speaker 2: Adams is there, Aaron Rodgers is there and hopefully his
Speaker 2: foot toe feels a little better here. Twelve and a
Speaker 2: halfs a very big number.
Speaker 1: Joe, especially with the total that low, But what do
Speaker 1: you think about it?
Speaker 3: Every fiber of my being after Aaron Rodgers keeps talking
Speaker 3: about how I own you, I own the Bears. I
Speaker 3: want to take the Bear so bad this in the
Speaker 3: twelve and a half, but I can't do it. I
Speaker 3: just can't do it. Like the fact is he does
Speaker 3: owe them, he owns them until further notice. And this
Speaker 3: is not the game because of the health as you
Speaker 3: just point out, the situation a quarterback. Oh, everything going
Speaker 3: on there, and the defense for the Bears is respectable,
Speaker 3: but the problem is that the offense just continues to
Speaker 3: put them on the field too much and in that situation.
Speaker 3: So it's a bad combination of things. And you can't
Speaker 3: do that with Aaron Rodgers, and you certainly can't do
Speaker 3: that on the road, you know, if you're the Bear.
Speaker 3: So I hate saying twelve and a half is safe,
Speaker 3: but I feel like twelve and a half is actually
Speaker 3: pretty safe. You're in this one, so I would go
Speaker 3: to twelve and a half. I would stay away from
Speaker 3: the forty four though. If anything, if anything, the over
Speaker 3: for the garbage time stuff like forty four is too
Speaker 3: low in this game, too because I think Green Bay
Speaker 3: could put up thirty by themselves, and then we're asking
Speaker 3: a lot of the Bears at all. So that's something
Speaker 3: to keep in mind. So forty four over twelve and
Speaker 3: a half, you can get it at twelve somewhere to
Speaker 3: take it without the hook.
Speaker 2: It's eleven and a half for me at DraftKings, But
Speaker 2: I probably it's weird sort of the outlier in the market,
Speaker 2: which is good, by the way. I like it when
Speaker 2: books are and just always in Unison here. But yeah,
Speaker 2: I mean I think there's no way I could take
Speaker 2: the Bears. I'm not touching the total. There's no way
Speaker 2: you could take the Bears. Right now, I'm with the
Speaker 2: Packers at home at Lambeau on Sunday night football, you know,
Speaker 2: and I naturally televised game like you can just see
Speaker 2: them sort of, you know, crushing them.
Speaker 1: So if I go one way or the.
Speaker 2: Other, I probably will go with the Packers. It's not
Speaker 2: a game I really I hate the big like spreads
Speaker 2: like that. I just automatically sort of have an aversion too.
Speaker 2: But whatever, last game Monday night football, good one Rams
Speaker 2: visiting the Cardinals.
Speaker 1: Spread is three totals fifty one and a half.
Speaker 3: This is a big here, this same playoff game. This
Speaker 3: is huge because Arizona having Kyler Murray back healthy last week,
Speaker 3: or healthy enough to play at least last week. We
Speaker 3: don't know how healthy he really is, but he was
Speaker 3: on the field and he had four touchdowns. So that's
Speaker 3: good enough for me, it's good enough for you. So
Speaker 3: I'm gonna take the Arizona side of this game because
Speaker 3: what I keep seeing from the Rams is they continue
Speaker 3: to be their own worst enemy, and it's kind of frustrating.
Speaker 3: I watched that game against the Packers a few weeks
Speaker 3: ago where Sean McVay is calling a fourth down, going
Speaker 3: for it in their own thirty on the road in
Speaker 3: the first quarter, and I'm thinking to myself, who do
Speaker 3: you think you are? And this is why really good
Speaker 3: teams of the NFL sometimes lose because their head coach
Speaker 3: is too smart for their own goods. Sometimes it makes
Speaker 3: stupid decisions and puts them behind. Sean McVay can have
Speaker 3: all the confidence in the world he wants against you know,
Speaker 3: in his offense, against whoever opponent, all that nonsense, but
Speaker 3: there's just things you do and things you don't do.
Speaker 3: And my concern is in this game on the road,
Speaker 3: Sean McVay is going to make a stupid decision at
Speaker 3: some point in time, and it's gonna put them in
Speaker 3: a bad position and the Cardinals are gonna take advantage
Speaker 3: of it. And I think it's time we start to
Speaker 3: put some respect on the Cardinals defense too. This team
Speaker 3: has played very well defensively all year. Despite every week
Speaker 3: everybody waiting for the other shoot to drop, it just hasn't.
Speaker 3: And they've lost personnel year over year. I mean, Simmons
Speaker 3: has played terrific, They've They've had a really good year
Speaker 3: out of their linebacker corps. The Rams I think are
Speaker 3: a better team on paper, but it just feels like,
Speaker 3: for whatever reason, them putting it together. And I don't
Speaker 3: care what happened this week against Jacksonville. I don't care.
Speaker 3: You should stomp a mud hole in Jacksonville. You're a
Speaker 3: significantly better roster than them. That means absolutely nothing to
Speaker 3: me coming into this game. And I actually like Arizona
Speaker 3: here to win this game, so I'll take the I
Speaker 3: will still take the three with Arizona because I think
Speaker 3: they can win by that much. But Dan, I'm curious,
Speaker 3: would you take the Rams side and the points in
Speaker 3: this game.
Speaker 2: I don't think so. I think you're right. I think
Speaker 2: I'm on the same size. This is one where you know,
Speaker 2: sometimes Joe, I don't know about you, but sometimes I
Speaker 2: have a reaction to games early when I look at
Speaker 2: them right here, as we do on Monday, and then
Speaker 2: as I dig into it as the week goes on,
Speaker 2: sometimes I changed sides.
Speaker 1: I did that with Pittsburgh and Baltimore.
Speaker 2: When I first looked at the line it was four
Speaker 2: four and a half, I said, I just feels like
Speaker 2: the Ravens are gonna be able to win this game
Speaker 2: pretty handily. But as I dug into it, by the
Speaker 2: end of the game, by the end of the week,
Speaker 2: I was I was on the Steelers, and I had
Speaker 2: them in our app by the way, our betting pros.
Speaker 1: App where we can lock our picks.
Speaker 2: This one, though, it does feel like the Cardinals, and
Speaker 2: it just feels like with a healthy Kyler Murray, with
Speaker 2: DeAndre Hopkins getting healthier, James Connor is playing great.
Speaker 1: The Rams look a little.
Speaker 2: Lost right now, and I think like they'll probably try
Speaker 2: to run the ball sort of. You know, you heard
Speaker 2: McVay talking about the fact that they liked the running
Speaker 2: style more.
Speaker 1: You know what they did with Michelle, which was just
Speaker 1: sort of a.
Speaker 2: Downhill, you know runner, And maybe Henderson gets back, so
Speaker 2: maybe they try to do that more. But obviously the
Speaker 2: loss of Robert Woods, I think is you know, bigger
Speaker 2: Odell Beckham junior is he's banged up, like he caught
Speaker 2: the touchdown pass obviously, but he's banged up. Van Jefferson
Speaker 2: is fine, Cooper Cup's amazing, but I just don't know
Speaker 2: if they have the firepower right now to stay with
Speaker 2: the Cardinals offensively, which with Murray fully healthy, and I
Speaker 2: think they played this correctly, thankfully in giving him so
Speaker 2: much time off after that ankle spring right because you know,
Speaker 2: you heard him a game day decision two weeks in
Speaker 2: a row before the bye, and I was like, please
Speaker 2: don't play him, Please just.
Speaker 1: Let him rest.
Speaker 2: Rely on Colt McCoy to win most of the games
Speaker 2: would be fun. And then get him to buy and
Speaker 2: then get him healthy. And man, you saw what he
Speaker 2: looked like. He just when he gets out of the pocket,
Speaker 2: he's just impossible to bring down. Right now, this is
Speaker 2: also it for the division. I mean, if they win
Speaker 2: this game, the division's over. Like I mean, they'll still
Speaker 2: have to play because again, the one thing I liked
Speaker 2: too about these schedule changes, like you got the one
Speaker 2: team getting the buy Like that's going to mean the
Speaker 2: Packers and the Cardinals got to go full out right
Speaker 2: for the rest of the year. But this is it
Speaker 2: for the division. The Cardinals will lock up the division
Speaker 2: with a win. I think they do right now. So
Speaker 2: I agree with you, Joe. I think if it's field
Speaker 2: goal and again it's underfield goal at a couple of
Speaker 2: places Fox bet points bet like it's two and a
Speaker 2: half that I really like, but at three I think
Speaker 2: I like it as well. I think I'm with you, Joe.
Speaker 2: Well done, all right, Joe, what's the uh? That was
Speaker 2: our last game? What's the schedule here? For the college
Speaker 2: Football podcast?
Speaker 1: That's what we're doing.
Speaker 3: Well. First of all, it's been a glorious college football
Speaker 3: year for the first Scott Bok and let's just put
Speaker 3: that out there. But then some really fun games last week.
Speaker 3: Alabama beating Georgia was a fun game, and beating them
Speaker 3: handily too. My goodness. That Georgia defense certainly ran up
Speaker 3: against an offensive line wall who heard all week about
Speaker 3: how they were going to be overmatched. Well they weren't,
Speaker 3: and Bryce Young had more time in the pocket and
Speaker 3: played the game of his career so far, so it
Speaker 3: was a great game for him. A couple of weeks ago,
Speaker 3: we had that Michigan game. You know, some great stuff's
Speaker 3: been going on college football. So this week we're going
Speaker 3: to take a week off, take a deep breath, and
Speaker 3: then we're every week here to close the year. We're
Speaker 3: going to have a bowl preview, so we had think
Speaker 3: fifteen games the first week or thirteen games and then
Speaker 3: fifteen I forget which numbers which. So the next couple
Speaker 3: of weeks we're going to be going week in at
Speaker 3: time with the bowl games, and then we get to
Speaker 3: the college football playoffs. We'll do a special to close
Speaker 3: everything out on the national championship game, so we'll do
Speaker 3: not only picking the game, we'll probably talk a lit
Speaker 3: litle bit about all the props inside the game and
Speaker 3: just have some fun and kind of close out the
Speaker 3: ear maybe look a little ahead too, because there's already
Speaker 3: some massive coaching changes that have gone on in the
Speaker 3: college football world. But it's been a fun season. If
Speaker 3: you missed it, I don't know. I'm questioning your choices
Speaker 3: in life. Go check it out, man, get into college football.
Speaker 3: It's fun.
Speaker 2: There's a saying when you have kids, Joe, which is
Speaker 2: the days are long, but the years are short, right,
Speaker 2: meaning that like when you're going through it, every day
Speaker 2: like feels forever, but then you wake up and like
Speaker 2: the kids are like five years older.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 2: I feel that way a little bit with this football season,
Speaker 2: with this college football season, where I felt like every
Speaker 2: week it was sort of like, you know, all the
Speaker 2: work that we put in and everything on the betting side,
Speaker 2: especially just sort of you know, grinding it out each week,
Speaker 2: going through the shows, blah blah, and then I'm like,
Speaker 2: oh my god, the season is over, and it just
Speaker 2: it feels like it went like that.
Speaker 1: You guys did a great job.
Speaker 2: I certainly enjoyed Bogwin way more than you, but so
Speaker 2: Bogwin was fantastic. Obviously in the college football side. We're
Speaker 2: going to keep going here with the NFL Show of
Speaker 2: course until the end of the season. So for everybody listening,
Speaker 2: thank you so much for tuning in, Thank you for
Speaker 2: t ning into the to the College.
Speaker 1: Football Podcast as well.
Speaker 2: Stick with us here. It's gonna be good. We'll be
Speaker 2: back on Thursday with our best bets. I will talk
Speaker 2: to