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Speaker 1: It doesn't look like it's even going to work on paper.

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Speaker 1: But imagine trying to force those huge movements of population

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Speaker 1: or militaries in the real world in potentially a continuing

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Speaker 1: battlefield zone. That's the reality of the idea of territorial swaps.

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Speaker 1: Already flat out rejects it here by Ukraine a tough

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Speaker 1: political ask, an impossible military ask, you might argue, and

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Speaker 1: that really leads people so anxious here that at the

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Speaker 1: bedrock of these talks potentially it's territorial swaps, and that

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Speaker 1: is impractical and unsellable. Here, what possibly could Trump emerge

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Speaker 1: from that meeting with.

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Speaker 2: That's CNN's reporting yesterday. I've heard a lot of different

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Speaker 2: reporting and a lot of different angles, of course, because

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Speaker 2: this came together really fast, and we have no idea

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Speaker 2: how it's going to go, really even what the topic

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Speaker 2: matter is going to be.

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Speaker 3: Let's discuss with Justin Logan, director of Defense and Foreign

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Speaker 3: Policy Studies at the Cato Institute. Justin's he might differ

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Speaker 3: somewhat from ours, but he has at least an idea

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Speaker 3: from judging from his recent piece of how a settlement

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Speaker 3: might look. At the title of the piece, is the

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Speaker 3: key to success at Trump putin Alaska summit on Ukraine.

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Speaker 3: Low expectations, Justin Logan joins us. Now, Justin, how are you, sir?

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Speaker 4: Just fine, good morning.

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Speaker 3: Low expectations, I think is absolutely an appropriate stance, as

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Speaker 3: we don't see much overlap at all between Putin's goals

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Speaker 3: for the territory of Ukraine and Ukraine's certainly.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, the underlying and unhappy, unfortunate act of

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Speaker 4: the matter is that Russia is in a relatively stronger

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Speaker 4: position on the battlefield than Ukraine is, and that makes

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Speaker 4: Russia both more willing to continue the conflict and as

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Speaker 4: willing to compromise diplomatically. So Trump has a very difficult

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Speaker 4: task here, which is to see whether a peace can

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Speaker 4: be produced that isn't disastrous from Ukraine's point of view,

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Speaker 4: and that you know, as I said the piece, we

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Speaker 4: should have low expectations. Even incremental shifts would be welcome

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Speaker 4: at this point.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, that seems like one of the problems I've

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Speaker 2: been saying for the last couple of days is a

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Speaker 2: Ukraine is horrified with the status quo. Putin's okay with

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Speaker 2: the status quo. He'd be fine with continuing prosecuting the

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Speaker 2: war the way he is, So a nothing burger would

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Speaker 2: be good from his standpoint, How do you get around that?

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Speaker 4: No, that's exactly right. And you know, the Ukrainians have said,

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Speaker 4: you know, look, our constitution commits us to pursue NATO membership,

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Speaker 4: which isn't going to happen, and prohibits us from seating

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Speaker 4: any territory, including Crimea, which has already happened. So they're

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Speaker 4: sort of using this sort of legalistic argumentation to dig

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Speaker 4: in on a position that just isn't going to happen.

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Speaker 4: So I don't fault them for that. It makes a

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Speaker 4: lot of sense to me that they should look as

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Speaker 4: unwilling to compromise as possible in the hopes of getting

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Speaker 4: a compromised that again is a total disaster. But on paper, yeah,

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Speaker 4: this thing isn't really going to go very far, very fast,

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Speaker 4: if it goes anywhere.

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Speaker 3: One question we've been banding back and forth is whether

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Speaker 3: Europe will, as I put it earlier, find at least

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Speaker 3: one of its testicles and assert itself as a party

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Speaker 3: that truly has a strong interest in stability or not.

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Speaker 3: How do you see NATO slash Europe's involvement in this

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Speaker 3: latest chapter.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean they are also digging in and not

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Speaker 4: showing much flexibility. But I think the question is, you know,

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Speaker 4: Europe needs to you know, to maybe I'll avoid your metaphor,

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Speaker 4: but it needs to sort of it needs to sort

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Speaker 4: of back its diplomacy with force. Right the ultimasio in

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Speaker 4: international relations is military power, and Europe is short still

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Speaker 4: to this day on military power, despite its declaration that

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Speaker 4: it's going to spend going to half percent of GDP

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Speaker 4: on defense by twenty thirty five. It needs to spend more,

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Speaker 4: and it needs to spend better if it wants more voice.

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Speaker 4: And I think that that's the sort of crucial disconnect

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Speaker 4: that Prump is looking pair, which is that you know,

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Speaker 4: if Europe wants more, say, it needs more power, and

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Speaker 4: that is an enduring problem for both, particularly for the Europeans,

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Speaker 4: but also it might view for the Americans if the

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Speaker 4: Americans want to hand over European security to Europe, which

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Speaker 4: I think would be a good thing to do. You

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Speaker 4: need to contact together, and it's making noises about doing so,

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Speaker 4: but not to my not not enough to my satisfaction.

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Speaker 2: So you don't do a lot of testical metaphors, zeric cato,

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Speaker 2: nothing radio, You know, this might end up being a

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Speaker 2: lesson in real politic for a lot of us. This

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Speaker 2: whole thing because Lindsey Graham saying on the Sunday shows that, look,

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Speaker 2: Ukraine isn't gonna you know, get back every bit of

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Speaker 2: their land and Putin's not going to Kiev. But which

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Speaker 2: I think those things are true. But what I don't

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Speaker 2: know where this goes.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean Lindsey Graham grappling with reality is progress

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Speaker 4: in international politics anyway. I mean, the bare facts of

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Speaker 4: the matter is, we're not going back to twenty fourteen. Unfortunately,

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Speaker 4: it would be great if Ukraine, you know, regain all territory,

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Speaker 4: if the international community recognizes as being part of Ukraine.

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Speaker 4: But in politics is a brutal business leader. Putin is,

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Speaker 4: you know, someone who reveals that every day he gets

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Speaker 4: out of bed in the morning. And so we have

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Speaker 4: to maximize what is sort of the art of the possible,

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Speaker 4: if you will, you know, what can we produce it?

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Speaker 4: And I think look to you know revealed, you know,

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Speaker 4: I thought that this was going to go way worse,

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Speaker 4: way quicker for Ukraine. So they have been heroic, right,

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Speaker 4: they have defended their territory. Right, I think, no, one,

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Speaker 4: you know, to talk about the realities that Vladimir Putin

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Speaker 4: has to grapple with. He's not going to take all

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Speaker 4: of Ukraine. He's not going to take most of Ukraine.

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Speaker 4: Ukraine is going to come out of this as a sovereign,

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Speaker 4: autonomous country. And you know, so there's all these things

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Speaker 4: that need to be haggled over. You know, Putin wants

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Speaker 4: to put I think, unreasonable limits on Ukraine's armed forces.

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Speaker 4: It's not going to join NATO. So we're revealing truths

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Speaker 4: through the course of this thing, and one hopes, you know,

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Speaker 4: I hope I'm wrong. I hope that you know, there's

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Speaker 4: more progress made today than I suspect, and we get

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Speaker 4: closer to a settlement of this conflict that leaves a

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Speaker 4: Ukraine that is a sovereign, functioning country on Russia's border.

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Speaker 3: We're talking to Justin Logan, director of Defense and Foreign

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Speaker 3: Policy Studies at the Cato Institute. Justin, if you were

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Speaker 3: to advise Donald Jay or any other leader about negotiating

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Speaker 3: with Putin, especially sitting down with Putin to negotiate, what

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Speaker 3: would you tell him about Putin and his methods?

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Speaker 4: Well, I mean, you know, if you read the newspaper.

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Speaker 4: I mean, it's all sort of there in black and white, right.

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Speaker 4: He doesn't need any sort of Putin whisper to say

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Speaker 4: this is a brutal guy who really means business and

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Speaker 4: really cares deeply about Ukraine's international orientation. Certainly, he's revealed

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Speaker 4: that he's willing to pay extremely high costs to influence

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Speaker 4: the sort of future orientation of Ukraine. And you know,

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Speaker 4: one again sort of brutal reality is, you know, we

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Speaker 4: were all worried about escalation. We were all worried about

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Speaker 4: the potential of nuclear escalation or escalation outside Ukraine's borders.

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Speaker 4: And part of the reason that that hasn't come to

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Speaker 4: the fore is the fact that Putin has been gradually,

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Speaker 4: slowly brutally winning the conflict. And so we need to

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Speaker 4: internalize he is revealed in the breach that he's willing

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Speaker 4: to pay enormous costs to influence the settlement of this conflict.

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Speaker 4: And we've revealed, under President Joe Biden and under President

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Speaker 4: Trump that we're not willing to go to the mattresses

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Speaker 4: and fight Russia in Ukraine over Ukraine. So that's going

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Speaker 4: to be the sort of starting point of understanding what

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Speaker 4: we should do. And you know, to be honest, we've

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Speaker 4: used a lot of economic leverage, a lot of sanctions

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Speaker 4: and it hasn't worked if you define work as it

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Speaker 4: caused to change his mind and leave Ukraine. So again,

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Speaker 4: I hate to be the sort of dark cloud here,

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Speaker 4: but it's you know, playing the type. I guess. You know,

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Speaker 4: we need to realize that we have limited leverage to

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Speaker 4: produce a maximally good outcome for Ukraine from this thing.

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Speaker 4: So we're very much in the realm of third best,

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Speaker 4: fourth best, or as I might put it, least worst outcomes.

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Speaker 2: Well, first of all, if you're dealing with Putney, don't

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Speaker 2: stand next to any open windows. Secondly, I love I

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Speaker 2: love dealing in reality. I mean, there's no advantage to

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Speaker 2: ever not dealing in reality. So well, if the reality

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Speaker 2: Putin is going to end up being rewarded for having

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Speaker 2: invaded a smaller country and getting to keep the land

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Speaker 2: because the rest of the world's not willing to, uh,

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Speaker 2: you know, put up the fight to stop him, what

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Speaker 2: how do you deal with Taiwan and China? What's how

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Speaker 2: do you make that not send the message to China

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Speaker 2: that here now it's your turn.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean it's you don't want to be a

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Speaker 4: small country bordering a larger, more powerful country if you

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Speaker 4: can avoid it, and unfortunately neither Ukraine nor Taiwan can

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Speaker 4: avoid that. So the question then becomes what do you

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Speaker 4: do optimally to make yourself look like And this is

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Speaker 4: a Taiwan metaphor that think tanks works use all the

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Speaker 4: time like a porcupine. Right, Porcupines don't get attacked because

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Speaker 4: they're bristling with quills that are likely to get their

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Speaker 4: hooks into you, and it hurts. It's not a pleasant experience.

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Speaker 4: And so Taiwan, I think, you know, there's there are

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Speaker 4: more things that Taiwan needs to do better for itself.

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Speaker 4: Then there are things that the US military needs to

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Speaker 4: do on behalf of Taiwan, which is to say, if

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Speaker 4: the balloon goes up God forbid in Taiwan, it will

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Speaker 4: take the US military, in optimal scenarios four or five

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Speaker 4: six days to really meaningfully get into the fight. And

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Speaker 4: Taiwan has been so negligent with its own defense, spending

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Speaker 4: about two percent of GDP art defense not spending it

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Speaker 4: well that it may all be over, but the crime

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Speaker 4: by the time we were to get there, So I

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Speaker 4: think that from a Taiwan point of view, Taiwan needs

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Speaker 4: to engage in asymmetric defense. It needs to do is

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Speaker 4: another hokey metaphore that we think tank Doork's use a

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Speaker 4: small number of things at great scale, So it needs

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Speaker 4: to prevent China from getting a lodgment that it could

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Speaker 4: flow troops onto, and without getting too boringly into the

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Speaker 4: weeds here. It hasn't been doing a great job of that,

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Speaker 4: So I would love to see Taiwan focus its military

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Speaker 4: less on big ticket items that China is likely to

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Speaker 4: be able to pick off early in a con and

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Speaker 4: do things that really again turn it into a porcupine

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Speaker 4: that China can't swallow.

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Speaker 3: Be a better porcupine. So final question for Justin Logan.

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Speaker 3: Justin back to the Russia Ukraine US thing, what are

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Speaker 3: the chances that Putin comes to the table with a

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Speaker 3: grand bargain in capitals that Ukraine is merely a part

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Speaker 3: of to tempt Donald J. Trump into some sort of

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Speaker 3: historical Arctic minerals arms control package.

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Speaker 4: That's a good question. I hate to make predictions. It

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Speaker 4: seems unlikely to me. Putin was sort of signaling yesterday

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Speaker 4: that he might be willing to talk about arms control,

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Speaker 4: which is a sort of weird non response to what

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Speaker 4: the summit is supposed to be about. So I think

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Speaker 4: it's possible that he brings things to the table that

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Speaker 4: don't pertain to Ukraine, because, as we sort of established

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Speaker 4: earlier in the call, he's kind of sort of okay

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Speaker 4: with this test quo in Ukraine, and I think it's

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Speaker 4: a real question of whether Trump and the people Trump

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Speaker 4: brings with him are willing to bite on that, or

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Speaker 4: whether they bring things back around to finding some sort

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Speaker 4: of diplomatic resolution to the war in Ukraine.

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Speaker 3: Justin Logan of the Cato Institute, fabulous conversation. Justin, we

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Speaker 3: thank you. It's been far too long since we've talked.

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Speaker 3: We will verbally abuse our staff for letting that happen.

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Speaker 3: Thank you so much for the time.

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Speaker 4: It's a great pleasure. Have a good week. I guess

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Speaker 4: thank you you too. Man.

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Speaker 2: That was a snap back to reality. It's so easy,

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Speaker 2: speaking for myself, to let your wishes be your the

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Speaker 2: father of your thoughts with things right. Trump has that land.

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Speaker 2: Is anybody willing to push him off of it? No

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Speaker 2: show of hands? No, okay, Well, then let's just concede

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Speaker 2: that deed gets that land. It's gonna happen, right, Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 2: it's I don't know when it was. It might have

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Speaker 2: been about a decade ago that it occurred to me

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Speaker 2: the term disillusioned ought to be a positive, not a negative.

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Speaker 3: What good are your illusions doing you? Especially in important stuff?

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Speaker 3: I mean, your illusion is that you're handsome and chicks digya.

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Speaker 3: That's fine, Okay, me too, right anyway, Armstrong and Getty