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Speaker 1: Let's get to our guests, William Mars Group c I

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Speaker 1: O it Grow Investment joining us from chang Do where

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Speaker 1: there have been lockdowns recently. We'll get to the COVID

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Speaker 1: zero policy in a moment, William. But China traders returning

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Speaker 1: from the Golden Week break, and we had a very

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Speaker 1: good rally at the start of last week in global equities,

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Speaker 1: but then Friday's jobs figures sent shares tumbling somewhat. So

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Speaker 1: how are we expecting to see China reopen after the

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Speaker 1: week on Golden Week holiday? Yeah, morning, Julian, we expect

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Speaker 1: the China year will catch up, you know, rest of

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Speaker 1: the world, you know, when its opening up. But having

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Speaker 1: said that, we believe, you know, before the Party conquest,

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Speaker 1: you know, trading volume would be on the low level,

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Speaker 1: kind of light the previous two weeks, which is half

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Speaker 1: of the peak of like one one trillion Roman b.

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Speaker 1: But having said that, we are seeing, you know, some

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Speaker 1: managers start a humiliating you know exposure, you know, like ourselves,

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Speaker 1: and exposure across all sectors. Or are we still showing

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Speaker 1: some signs of caution because we are looking ahead, as

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Speaker 1: you mentioned to the Party Congress, And whether or not

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Speaker 1: there's going to be any kind of pivot from dynamics sero. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: In terms of UM sectors, you know, we are relatively

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Speaker 1: more positive on the consumer state post, which is, you know,

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Speaker 1: are less sensitive to the serial COVID policy. But the

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Speaker 1: key catalyst, of course, we would be the step of

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Speaker 1: the civil COVID policy. And in specific we are positive

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Speaker 1: on the white goods manufacturer, you know, despite the le

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Speaker 1: looser you know, kind of like consumption. But if you

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Speaker 1: look at the Q three earnings growth of the some

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Speaker 1: of the white goods manufacturer, they're actually up, you know,

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Speaker 1: about mid twenty percent, and Q four we're expecting, you know,

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Speaker 1: continue to go up with lower volume but the price increase.

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Speaker 1: So consumer stable would be something that is interesting at

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Speaker 1: this point when you talk about the consumer and consumption

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Speaker 1: resumption as well. What kind of positive science did we

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Speaker 1: say over the Golden Week holiday? Yeah, I think there's

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Speaker 1: mixed message, to be honest. Um, in terms of the

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Speaker 1: total you know, outbound traffic to other provinces in the

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Speaker 1: Golden Week, actually it's down by eighteen percent you know

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Speaker 1: on a year on a year basis, but some of

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Speaker 1: the local travel actually is going up, you know, compared

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Speaker 1: to the last holiday, the Utom Festival, for example, the

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Speaker 1: theme park ticket was up about so I think there

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Speaker 1: are mixed message on the Golden Week in particular. The

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Speaker 1: main reason it's not people not willing to spend. For example,

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Speaker 1: in Chando, I'm seeing people liking up in the restaurants,

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Speaker 1: but I think it's because of the policy that people

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Speaker 1: cannot travel outside of provinces. We'll tell us about what

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Speaker 1: it's like when you are in cheng Do, because that

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Speaker 1: is a massive province for our global audience and I

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Speaker 1: guess always very well known for tourism too. It's where

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Speaker 1: the pandas are. It was one of the first to

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Speaker 1: get this hard lockdown, in this recent lockdown that we've

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Speaker 1: seen over the past couple of months. How are things

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Speaker 1: now on the ground. And if you say consumers are

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Speaker 1: a little worry about spending, what kind of economic growth

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Speaker 1: momentum are you seeing elsewhere? Yes? Um, Actually, if look

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Speaker 1: at the data point, for example in Chando, um the

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Speaker 1: shopping is changed from offline to online and you know,

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Speaker 1: local restaurant a pack and when I speak to people,

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Speaker 1: you know, during the lockdown in the two weeks, they

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Speaker 1: start you know, cooking at home and I think the

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Speaker 1: good thing about the policy is you know, lesson learned.

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Speaker 1: You know, I was in shanghaiw and in March lockdown,

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Speaker 1: but you know it was like too long for like

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Speaker 1: two or three months. In Chando two weeks. I think

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Speaker 1: people are still bearable. And after the lockdown, people you know,

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Speaker 1: go back to eat hot palp and other things. So

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Speaker 1: I believe the citizens that people are looking forward are

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Speaker 1: more clear or short term kind of like COVID you know,

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Speaker 1: lockdown or policy. So as we look ahead to the

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Speaker 1: Party Congress, which we've touched on, just wanting to get

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Speaker 1: your thoughts on some of the key economic policies that

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Speaker 1: will be announced and whether or not if we do

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Speaker 1: see a pivot away from COVID zero, which will see

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Speaker 1: the Chinese economy accelerate in three if that's going to

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Speaker 1: be hampered by what's still happening in the real estate sector. Yes.

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Speaker 1: I think there are very three very important key um

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Speaker 1: indicator or you know, points to watch out for the

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Speaker 1: Party Congress. The first one is who is will be

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Speaker 1: the premier, whether you know he is very pro economy

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Speaker 1: or conservative. I think people are waiting. That's important message

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Speaker 1: number one. Number two market is expecting a step by

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Speaker 1: step announcement of the civil COVID policy. You know, for example,

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Speaker 1: in three months time, six months time. What are the

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Speaker 1: you know, forward looking procedures, so a clarity on the

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Speaker 1: opening up. Number three is at the end of this year,

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Speaker 1: you know, the new premier is going to announce the

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Speaker 1: full year budget for this for next year, and we're

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Speaker 1: expecting some you know, larger size kind of life physical stimulus.

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Speaker 1: Those three factors would impact you know, the market sentiment.

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Speaker 1: And back to the economy, we believe the whole year

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Speaker 1: would be around three to three point five and some

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Speaker 1: of the economic activities will pick up in kill four

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Speaker 1: in which you know, some of the leading indicator like

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Speaker 1: still production already coming you know, back up, Yeah, and

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Speaker 1: we're looking ahead to a little bit of a pickup

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Speaker 1: in potential se Bi inflation data two to three percent

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Speaker 1: in September, mainly on higher food prices. When it comes

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Speaker 1: to what we can expect from authorities though to support

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Speaker 1: the economy, what kind of moves you expecting in terms

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Speaker 1: of the one year interest rate, whether or not it's

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Speaker 1: going to be steady for the rest of the year. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think the uh, you know, a monitory policy has

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Speaker 1: done its part, you know, in Q two and in

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Speaker 1: Q three already we don't expect you know further you

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Speaker 1: know sharp you know rate cut. Having said that, we

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Speaker 1: believe the boots would be on the consumption side. You

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Speaker 1: can look at the electric vehicle cells in the previous

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Speaker 1: to three months. Actually it's a going up. So we

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Speaker 1: believe there will be more like cash queue point or

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Speaker 1: kind of like personal consumption, kind of like supportive measure

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Speaker 1: to check up the economy. And secondly, I think some

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Speaker 1: of the companies are increasing the capics as well, so

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Speaker 1: that would contribute some of the you know, earnings or GDP.

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Speaker 1: In Q four, we're gonna be a bit looking very

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Speaker 1: closely at the the one fixed as well. Today we

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Speaker 1: had twenty seven days straight prior to the break of

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Speaker 1: the Olden week holiday of a stronger you unfixed, and

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Speaker 1: we have had some intervention from authorities there too. How

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Speaker 1: much I guess further depreciation. Do you think that authorities

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Speaker 1: are going to tolerate here? We believed the seven point

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Speaker 1: two is you know, reason kind of like barrier. Oh

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Speaker 1: we may have lost William. Okay, we may have lost William.

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Speaker 1: Will try and get him back. But talking about there.

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Speaker 1: What kind of momentum we're going to see from the

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Speaker 1: PBOC when the one fixed resumes today at nine fifteen

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Speaker 1: local time. As I mentioned, the p BOC had set

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Speaker 1: a stronger you want fixed versus the estimate for twenty

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Speaker 1: seven days straight prior to the break, and the off

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Speaker 1: show you one has strengthened compared to prior to that

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Speaker 1: break as well. The one, though has been trading near

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Speaker 1: the upper bound of the daily band. No breaching of

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Speaker 1: limits so far. I think we've got William back. So

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Speaker 1: seven point two, you are saying, William, Yeah, I think

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Speaker 1: the range would be seven to seven point one. Seven

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Speaker 1: point two is the level that the government is that. Okay,

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Speaker 1: we may we may be having a little bit of

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Speaker 1: trouble with with his line, but we are of course

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Speaker 1: very much looking forward to the reopen of markets in

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Speaker 1: Hong Kong. Than Our guest this half hour was William

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Speaker 1: Mah Group ce IO at Grow Investment