Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound on.
Speaker 1: This certainly is a great jobs report. Most of the
Speaker 1: economy is recovered the jobs that companies had pre pandemic.
Speaker 1: My go, she doesn't it great. I'm very pleased that
Speaker 1: we've got strong job But we're in a recession. Floomberg
Speaker 1: Sound on, Politics, Policy and perspective from DC's top name.
Speaker 1: Even if wages are going up a little, they're falling
Speaker 1: further and further behind. The families of America are each month.
Speaker 1: The same people who said the American rescue plan would
Speaker 1: rescue you have thrown you back into the water. Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. So you
Speaker 1: say we're in a recession, Welcome to the fastest hour
Speaker 1: in politics. With a stronger than expected jobs report, stunning
Speaker 1: Wall Street and dropping within hours of a new deal
Speaker 1: being struck in the Senate on a Democrat only tax
Speaker 1: and climate bill. We'll talk jobs and economy with barat
Speaker 1: Ram and Murder, Deputy Director of the White House National
Speaker 1: Economic Council. And now that Senator Kirston Cinema has spoken,
Speaker 1: a vote is set for tomorrow in the Senate. A
Speaker 1: working weekend, we'll look inside the evolving reconciliation deal with
Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Eric Wasson, who's been breaking news on this all week.
Speaker 1: Republicans taking aim at the bill, we'll talk about it
Speaker 1: with our panel, Bloomberg Politics contributor, Democratic analyst Jennie Schanzano,
Speaker 1: along with Republican strategist Lizzie Guden of South and Hills Strategies,
Speaker 1: former communications director for Governor Charlie Baker. If you could
Speaker 1: believe the print at eight thirty this morning, like Vinnie
Speaker 1: was saying, five twenty eight thousand jobs last month, there's
Speaker 1: more than twice the estimate, right, people expected to fifty.
Speaker 1: I'm not really good at math, but unemployment dropped unexpectedly,
Speaker 1: wage growth accelerated. Labor Secretary Marty Walsh took the victory
Speaker 1: lap this morning on Bloomberg. Here he is, this certainly
Speaker 1: is a great jobs report when you look at the
Speaker 1: different sectors. Uh, most of the economy has recovered the
Speaker 1: jobs that were that companies had pre pandemic or all returned.
Speaker 1: So it shows good gains. We've showed some good wage growth.
Speaker 1: We're shown good good areas. Manufacturing is one of those
Speaker 1: areas that certainly we've seen come back, not just come
Speaker 1: back to pre pandemic labs about going beyond. That doesn't
Speaker 1: sound like a recession. The push and pull continues here
Speaker 1: as Republicans say we are in one, and we're joined
Speaker 1: now by one of President Biden's economic advisors, barat Rama
Speaker 1: Murty is Deputy Director the White House National Economic Council,
Speaker 1: to help us dig into this broad welcome back to Bloomberg,
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for having me. President Biden says
Speaker 1: more people are working now than at any time in
Speaker 1: American history, which is quite a statement following the two
Speaker 1: back to back negative GDP reports and all of the
Speaker 1: talk about recession. Is this the evidence that proves we
Speaker 1: are not in one? Well, I think the job report
Speaker 1: today shows once again that there is very little evidence
Speaker 1: of the United States economy being in a recession. As
Speaker 1: you noted, more people, based on the Shouts report, more
Speaker 1: people are working today than at any other point in
Speaker 1: the country's history. The U employment rate, which is actually
Speaker 1: a tick below three point five percent if you go
Speaker 1: out to two decimal places, is the lowest that it's
Speaker 1: been in fifty three years. Uh, and it's a great
Speaker 1: time for finding a job. At the same time, a
Speaker 1: lot of economists remain worried about inflation. As you know,
Speaker 1: I know it's a priority for the president. Wage growth
Speaker 1: was up more than expected here at five point two,
Speaker 1: which of course is good for workers. But we also
Speaker 1: hear from economists about this who are troubled. We heard
Speaker 1: today from Muhammad al Arian, who's a Bloomberg opinion contributor
Speaker 1: to The Economist. I'd love for you to respond to
Speaker 1: what he said. Let's listen, the next phase of inflation
Speaker 1: is going to be wage driven. If that occurs, it's
Speaker 1: good for the worker, it's good for the economy. However,
Speaker 1: it means that core inflation will prove proved to be
Speaker 1: much stickier coming down. Now broad I'm not going to
Speaker 1: ask you to comment on FED policy. I just want
Speaker 1: to know if the White House, if you are worried
Speaker 1: about a wage spiral, like Muhammad al Arian said, being
Speaker 1: the next phase. Well, I would say this the President's
Speaker 1: number one economic priorities fighting inflation, and he agrees with
Speaker 1: those who say that this should be at the top
Speaker 1: of our priority list. You know, what our approach is
Speaker 1: is to expand the productive capacity of the economy and
Speaker 1: to bring down the federal depths that both of which
Speaker 1: will have the effect of reducing inflation. We are on
Speaker 1: the ten yard line right now of passing the Inflation
Speaker 1: Reduction Act, which would add an additional three billion dollars
Speaker 1: worth of DEFTIT reduction to the one point seven trillion
Speaker 1: dollars the DEFINIT reductions we're already projected to have this year.
Speaker 1: Who will bring down costs for consumers on energy, on
Speaker 1: prescription drugs, on health insurance. Uh. It is a remarkably
Speaker 1: effective bill at dealing with the economic moment that we're
Speaker 1: and it's one reason why economists across the political spectrum
Speaker 1: have come out and said this bill will be effective
Speaker 1: at fighting inflation. We agree that fighting inflation has to
Speaker 1: be our top priority. We understand that it's squeezing working
Speaker 1: families and we want to get it down. Our approach,
Speaker 1: rather than trying to put the hammer down on wages,
Speaker 1: to try to expand the supply side of the economy
Speaker 1: and take other steps to help produce the cost that
Speaker 1: family space. Yeah, you know, of course Republicans are saying,
Speaker 1: and you know this, I'm sure you hear it as
Speaker 1: often as I do, brought that this would in fact
Speaker 1: poor gasoline on the inflation fire, that it's more spending,
Speaker 1: that it raises taxes, and I don't want to get
Speaker 1: into an argument with you about that here. I'm just
Speaker 1: if we get a vote this weekend on this reconciliation bill,
Speaker 1: it appears since you brought this up, I'll ask you
Speaker 1: to not include the end of the carried interest loophole.
Speaker 1: We heard from Senator Elizabeth Warren earlier today was not
Speaker 1: happy and some progressives are not happy about this is
Speaker 1: the White House okay with that not being in the
Speaker 1: final version. Well, I want to go back to one
Speaker 1: thing that you said. I know you said you don't
Speaker 1: want to get into archment on this, but I have
Speaker 1: to say, this is not adding to the fire. This
Speaker 1: is bringing down the death of sit. Uh. There's a
Speaker 1: trillion dollars worth of revenue coming into the federal government
Speaker 1: through this proposal and far less than that spending. And
Speaker 1: so that's one of the reasons why as I set,
Speaker 1: economists across the political spectrum are acknowledging that this would
Speaker 1: be effective at fighting And by the way, you should
Speaker 1: also know we've had Mark Xandy on the air saying
Speaker 1: that Larry Summers on the air saying that, but we
Speaker 1: we do try to bring both sides together here when
Speaker 1: when when they don't agree, is carried interest? Though? Is
Speaker 1: that a problem for the White House to not have
Speaker 1: the loophole closed here? Well, I will say this, we
Speaker 1: are supportive of the modified bill even without that provision
Speaker 1: in it. Would we like to see that boophole closed?
Speaker 1: Of course I wanted to keep at it. There's a
Speaker 1: lot of things on the President's economic agenda that we
Speaker 1: haven't gotten to yet and that we're going to keep
Speaker 1: fighting for. But um progress is awesome about compromise. We
Speaker 1: think that we have a great compromise here that's going
Speaker 1: to be a win for the American people, who win
Speaker 1: for the American worker. We're asking Congress to move as
Speaker 1: quickly as possible on it. So you do have a
Speaker 1: plan though, to come back around and is I know
Speaker 1: that Senator Kerston Cinema said that as well, that there
Speaker 1: would be another round, another attempt to at least reform
Speaker 1: carried interest. Is that what the White House play ends? Yeah? Well,
Speaker 1: I saw some understandimous statement. I'm glad to hear that
Speaker 1: she's interested in continuing to work on that issue. I
Speaker 1: know that many members of Congress are interested in working
Speaker 1: on that issue. The White House stands ready to assist
Speaker 1: them in that. We've got other things that we want
Speaker 1: to push forward on our agenda. We've got to do
Speaker 1: something about housing affordability and expanding affordable housing supply. The
Speaker 1: President has plans on the carriage and the childcare, elder care,
Speaker 1: and so on. But we're making a lot of progress
Speaker 1: on a number of elements of our economic agenda. For
Speaker 1: the first time, allowing Medicare to negotiate the cost of
Speaker 1: prescription drugs. That's really that's been something that president of
Speaker 1: both parties of talking about for a long time, and
Speaker 1: we're on the verge of actually making that happen. You
Speaker 1: know what I thought you were gonna say is that
Speaker 1: instead of the carried interest component, you've got an excise
Speaker 1: tax on stock buy backs, which will actually generate more money.
Speaker 1: Is that something that the White House does want to see. Absolutely.
Speaker 1: We've been supportive of that one percent buy backs tax
Speaker 1: all the way back since when the House Representatives passed
Speaker 1: it a few months ago. We think it's a smart
Speaker 1: way of equalizing the tax treatment between buybacks and dividends
Speaker 1: so that when corporations are deciding what to do with
Speaker 1: their money. There isn't a thumb on the scale for
Speaker 1: one way of returning money to shareholders relative to another. Uh.
Speaker 1: And as a number of folks have said, including some
Speaker 1: folks on the Republican side, UH, this kind of buybacks
Speaker 1: tax can actually encourage companies to reinvest those earnings, which
Speaker 1: we think is a good thing for the long term
Speaker 1: growth of potential of the economy. So is it reinvestment
Speaker 1: or do you see them putting more money into dividends
Speaker 1: as a result. Well, I think that different corporations are
Speaker 1: going to react differently. Obviously, if they shift into dividends, UH,
Speaker 1: then we get more of the tax revenue. If they
Speaker 1: put it into investment, that's a good outcome too, because
Speaker 1: we think that leads to more productivity, more innovation, maybe
Speaker 1: better wages for workers, all of which are good outcomes
Speaker 1: for the American economy. This is a tough spot where
Speaker 1: in right, I know that you're here to to tell
Speaker 1: me how great this job market is. There are more
Speaker 1: Americans working than ever. You've got a good story to
Speaker 1: tell them, this job's report. But you're dealing with an
Speaker 1: economy that's coming off a phase of being overheated. And
Speaker 1: sparking a lot of inflation. And you have to balance
Speaker 1: these two at the same time. So as you look
Speaker 1: forward and if we're entering a slowing economy here, how
Speaker 1: do you maintain these job gains? Well, the President has
Speaker 1: set for a few months now that our goal is
Speaker 1: to transition from a historically strong economic recovery into steady
Speaker 1: and stable growth, and we would expect that during that
Speaker 1: period of time, the job games numbers are going to
Speaker 1: go down. Even though we got a blockbuster reports, they
Speaker 1: actually if you look at the larger trends, you look
Speaker 1: at the last six months compared to the previous six months,
Speaker 1: job games are coming down a little bit um. But
Speaker 1: the point is that the thing, the analogy I like
Speaker 1: to use is when we came into office, we were
Speaker 1: starting in marathon and we were a few miles behind
Speaker 1: some our competitors in other countries were far ahead of
Speaker 1: us in terms of their recovery. And what we needed
Speaker 1: to do was sprint to catch up to them. And
Speaker 1: that's what we did. You know, we had the single
Speaker 1: greatest year for job growth in the history of this country.
Speaker 1: The unemployment rate came down from over six percent under
Speaker 1: four But now that we're in the lead if you
Speaker 1: look at where are economy is relative to other countries. Uh,
Speaker 1: we can't sprint forever, got to settle into a steady past.
Speaker 1: How long does it take for us to catch our breath? Well, look,
Speaker 1: I think that we're doing it. We may have to
Speaker 1: walk a fine line here, but so far, I think
Speaker 1: we're doing a good job of that. We're seeing robust
Speaker 1: labor market, good consumer spending, good business investment. At the
Speaker 1: same time, job openings, which is something that the said
Speaker 1: said that it's focused on, are starting to come down
Speaker 1: a little bit. Inflationary expectations over the long term and
Speaker 1: medium term are starting to come down a little bit.
Speaker 1: So we see a lot of good science of the
Speaker 1: economy and it today. Any thoughts on how the estimates
Speaker 1: were so far off, how this could be twice as
Speaker 1: hot as Wall Street expected or economists predicted, brought well,
Speaker 1: I should say if you look back at the last
Speaker 1: eighteen months, a lot of the expectations have been awesome.
Speaker 1: Both they and I'm not trying to poke fun at anybody.
Speaker 1: I think it's just an incredibly Is that just the
Speaker 1: noise of a post pandemic economy? Exactly? I think that
Speaker 1: there are a lot of idio secracies and variability in
Speaker 1: the data that we've seen over last eight months. There's
Speaker 1: a lot of cross currents of the economy, and I
Speaker 1: think it's hard for people who make these projections to
Speaker 1: take all of that into account and get it right
Speaker 1: every time. But I think setting aside the projection more
Speaker 1: than a thousand new jobs created, that means it's a
Speaker 1: good pay for America. Brought Rama Murdy, Deputy Director of
Speaker 1: the White House National Economic Council. We thank you for
Speaker 1: coming back to talk to us on Bloomberg. Thank you
Speaker 1: so much the word from the administration. Of course, as
Speaker 1: I mentioned, Republicans could not agree less on all things economic,
Speaker 1: and we'll get into that next with the sound On Panel,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Politics contributor Democratic analyst Jeanie Schanzano is here on
Speaker 1: this Friday along today with Republicans strategist Lizzie Guiden of
Speaker 1: South Hill Strategies. We'll check traffic and markets for you
Speaker 1: on the way the fastest hour in politics. Welcome to
Speaker 1: the threshold of the weekend. I'm Joe Matthew, This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. Sound On on Bloomberg Radio. The headline
Speaker 1: could be written by the White House itself, US job
Speaker 1: growth surgies tempering recession wory, how about it? Things have
Speaker 1: changed since the last GDP report. But it's also pressing
Speaker 1: the Fed. This Job's report, and that's where things get complicated, right.
Speaker 1: Republican leadership in the House held a news conference early today.
Speaker 1: Senator John Barrasso of Wyoming chairs the Republican conference. This
Speaker 1: was after the Job's report came out. His message could
Speaker 1: not be further from the White House. This here, he is,
Speaker 1: even if wages are going up a little, they're falling
Speaker 1: further and further behind the families of America are each
Speaker 1: month as Joe Biden has been president, because costs have
Speaker 1: gone up so high. The Democrats are gonna make it
Speaker 1: worse if they're able to pass this reckless tax and
Speaker 1: spending bill. Pointing to the Reconciliation Bill that we're going
Speaker 1: to dig into a little bit more later in the hour.
Speaker 1: So this is where we start with the panel. Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Politics contributor Democratic analyst Genie Chanzano with us along today
Speaker 1: with Lizzie Guydon, founding partner of South End Hill Strategies
Speaker 1: in the Great City of Boston, former communications director for
Speaker 1: Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker. Lizzie's great to have you today, Genie,
Speaker 1: Happy Friday. Let's start, I guess with what's good news? Right?
Speaker 1: The White House wants to take a victory lap on this,
Speaker 1: But if the job market is so good that we're celebrating,
Speaker 1: you know, twice expectations, that could also mean twice the
Speaker 1: interest rates in a really difficult end of this year
Speaker 1: in the economy. Right, That's right, and it is a
Speaker 1: huge victory for the White House. And you know, we
Speaker 1: will get the inflation numbers, as we all know, next week,
Speaker 1: and there is a you know, a real fear that
Speaker 1: the FETE is going to act to have to slow
Speaker 1: this all down. But you know, if you just look
Speaker 1: at this politically, the White House feels like they are
Speaker 1: in very good shape because everybody talking about recession, this
Speaker 1: has sort of quieted a much of that talk. And
Speaker 1: that's a very good day for the White House. And
Speaker 1: what has otherwise been a really really tough few months,
Speaker 1: this last week or two has been very good for them. Lizzie,
Speaker 1: the Republican message has been incredibly consistent through this period
Speaker 1: of time, and we've had a lot of you know,
Speaker 1: really boffo jobs reports here. But the fact of the
Speaker 1: matter is whether we're arguing about our recession or not,
Speaker 1: inflation is issue number one. This White House has acknowledged
Speaker 1: that you just heard that from Barat Ramamurty. They constantly
Speaker 1: say that this is the president's priority, that we're aware
Speaker 1: that you know, we can feel people's pain. And when
Speaker 1: you look at the president's job approval numbers, that's that's
Speaker 1: the proof, right, this is still an economy besieged by inflation,
Speaker 1: even if the job's report is this hot, that's right, Joe.
Speaker 1: And even though today's job report is, of course something
Speaker 1: that the White House is going to take a victory
Speaker 1: lap on, it's really just one piece of the puzzle
Speaker 1: at at this point. And we're still seeing labor participation dropping,
Speaker 1: we're still seeing inflation out of forty year high, and
Speaker 1: there's no end in sight. And I think, you know,
Speaker 1: it's it's great to talk off of jobs reports and
Speaker 1: all these things that politicians and people in Washington walked
Speaker 1: watched so closely, But when you think about what people
Speaker 1: are feeling and their concerns over the high cost of
Speaker 1: food and gas and some of the weird economic trends
Speaker 1: going on. There's still a lot of concern in American
Speaker 1: households and that can't be overlooked. So what do you do, Jennie,
Speaker 1: if you're Joe Biden them for crying outline, I just
Speaker 1: got you five d something thousand jobs and unexpectedly low
Speaker 1: three point five percent unemployment is not something that we
Speaker 1: thought we were going to see. And he's got a
Speaker 1: job approval rating stuck in the thirties. You know, he's
Speaker 1: got to keep grinding away at this. You know, the
Speaker 1: reality is we should also add to that that gas
Speaker 1: prices have been going downs. Reminded us of that this
Speaker 1: bill signing today. I mean, if you listen to him
Speaker 1: on the economy, you would think that this was the
Speaker 1: high water marks. You hear Republicans and you think we're
Speaker 1: in a recession. That's right, and you know there their
Speaker 1: reality is we are not in a recession yet. But
Speaker 1: as we've talked about so much, it depends on how
Speaker 1: you define it. But you know, just to add to
Speaker 1: what Lizzie was saying, and she's absolute right, the White
Speaker 1: House has to keep their eye on what people are feeling.
Speaker 1: Because for all the successes in terms of passing bills
Speaker 1: and unemployment numbers and these things. The reality is, if
Speaker 1: you know there's a lot of jobs out there, but
Speaker 1: you're paying more for everything except for gas at this point,
Speaker 1: that doesn't feel so good to voters into people. And
Speaker 1: that's what Joe Biden has to keep talking about. I
Speaker 1: think he is able to do that. He's able to
Speaker 1: celebrate what are the good numbers and to keep focusing
Speaker 1: on inflation keep us out of a reverse session, and
Speaker 1: that is sort of the winning strategy here. But they
Speaker 1: can't take too much of a victory lap with inflation
Speaker 1: this high. No, I guess not. I just don't. I
Speaker 1: just don't feel like it matters what he says at
Speaker 1: this point, Lizzie, I want to bring you back because
Speaker 1: we can talk about, uh, some real major challenges that
Speaker 1: we're dealing with right now in our economy. But but
Speaker 1: Secretary Marty Walsh, who I know, you know you spent
Speaker 1: a lot of years uh running the communication shop for
Speaker 1: Charlie Baker when he was working with Marty Walsh as
Speaker 1: the mayor of Boston. He said something today in his
Speaker 1: interview on Bloomberg that that was really remarkable because we
Speaker 1: are now back amazingly, uh, to pre pandemic levels in
Speaker 1: the job market. But he kind of brought me back
Speaker 1: to that period of time. That puts things in perspective
Speaker 1: a little bit. Listen to Secretary Walsh pandemic Match of
Speaker 1: twenty I was the mayor of Boston and we were
Speaker 1: shutting businesses down, We're shutting restaurants down. Uh. We didn't
Speaker 1: really know what the economy held and thinking about where
Speaker 1: we are today was really incredible. And I think that
Speaker 1: this will, in my opinion, will be sustainable moving forward.
Speaker 1: I think companies are understanding. I think we're gonna have
Speaker 1: a new type of economy. Chris, we've gotta have the siren.
Speaker 1: When Marty Walsh is on, I swear, Lizzie, you were there.
Speaker 1: I was there. We didn't know if we were ever
Speaker 1: getting out of that, and I know everyone had their
Speaker 1: own version, but in the city of Boston at that point,
Speaker 1: it was a crisis. It was one of the first
Speaker 1: cities to to overflow with the COVID story. We only
Speaker 1: have a minute left. That is something noteworthy. To think
Speaker 1: that we're back to a pre pandemic job market is incredible, absolutely,
Speaker 1: and you know, uh, Mayor Walsh now Secretary wal she
Speaker 1: had a tough job during COVID and he arguably has
Speaker 1: a tougher job now and the Biden administration. And it
Speaker 1: makes a good point about job numbers and looking at
Speaker 1: that top line, but there's also still some funky things
Speaker 1: going on in the economy. If you're reading some of
Speaker 1: the reports media reports out of Boston, we're having issues
Speaker 1: with shortages of teachers, of healthcare workers, um and you
Speaker 1: know a lot of people are saying that they are
Speaker 1: leaving certain professions that we consider essential due to COVID burnout.
Speaker 1: So even if we're looking at that top line number,
Speaker 1: you do have to look into the details and see
Speaker 1: what exactly is going on. And you know, it does
Speaker 1: cause a lot of stress and anxiety among families when
Speaker 1: you have a lack of workers and be certain places
Speaker 1: people want to be sure, Chanzo, our panel, this is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: That sound you're hearing is the sound of airplane reservations
Speaker 1: being made. Not only is the Senate working this weekend, now,
Speaker 1: the House is coming back Friday to vote on this
Speaker 1: reconciliation bill. I mean, boy, we came close last year.
Speaker 1: A lot of folks still aren't or somebody's gonna pull
Speaker 1: the football. But here's where things stand. Thanks in part
Speaker 1: to crack reporting from Eric Wasson, who is going to
Speaker 1: be with us in just a moment. Bloomberg has been
Speaker 1: doing a great job on this this week is getting
Speaker 1: news somehow out of Kirsten Cinema's office. If you've been
Speaker 1: following the bouncing ball here, this reconciliation plan changed since
Speaker 1: we last spoke carried interest. Remember we went to school
Speaker 1: yesterday with Professor Shnally uncarried interest. It's gone. But I'll
Speaker 1: let the majority leader talk about this, Chuck Schumer, what's
Speaker 1: coming out of the bill? Senator Cinema said she would
Speaker 1: not vote for the bill, not even moved to proceed
Speaker 1: unless we took it out, so we we had no choice.
Speaker 1: The only other real change here is there is in
Speaker 1: the three hundred uh thirteen billion dollars that we gained
Speaker 1: from closing uh corporate tax loopoles the corporate so called
Speaker 1: minimum tax. A piece was taken out, but two hundred
Speaker 1: fifty eight bill of that remains, so narrowing the corporate
Speaker 1: minimum tax. But something else was added to the bill,
Speaker 1: and it appears to be a net plus if you're
Speaker 1: looking at the numbers at least again here's Chuck Schumer.
Speaker 1: What we added is something that excites me and I
Speaker 1: think excites oil democrats and particularly progressives. We're adding in
Speaker 1: an exercise tax on stock by backs that will bring
Speaker 1: in seventy four billion dollars by way of contrast the
Speaker 1: carried interest loophole as it was phrased, and we took
Speaker 1: the exact language the House had. We um was a
Speaker 1: fourteen billion dollar income. This is seventy four billion, five times.
Speaker 1: And I hate stock by backs. Yeah, he was passionate
Speaker 1: about the stock hates. So does Bernie Sanders. Uh, And
Speaker 1: I guess you'll be paying attacks on that here. But
Speaker 1: it looks like, as we heard earlier this hour from
Speaker 1: Barratt Ramamurdi at the White House, the administration is on
Speaker 1: board here. I guess it's a wash in the end.
Speaker 1: I want to hear about this from Eric Wasson, who
Speaker 1: saw it all coming Bloomberg Congress reporter. Great work first
Speaker 1: of all, this week, Eric, we've really relied on on
Speaker 1: what you and your team have been reporting from the Hill.
Speaker 1: Does this end up being kind of a wash or
Speaker 1: did Kirston Cinema just end up producing the deficit by
Speaker 1: even more. You know, if the math holds. We don't
Speaker 1: have a final CBO score, it sounds like there's a
Speaker 1: little bit more deficit reduction. Although we're just getting word
Speaker 1: that for Western senators, including Cinema, Struck a deal that
Speaker 1: four billion dollars and spending into this address the drought.
Speaker 1: You know, job money, you might suck up a little
Speaker 1: bit of that extra deficity reduction For mansion. The key
Speaker 1: is to have above three billion dollars in deficit reduction
Speaker 1: over ten years. So you know, I guess that little
Speaker 1: surplus is being being spent. But yeah, a stock buy back,
Speaker 1: you know, it is a big change. We taught to
Speaker 1: market participants today and they're kind of, you know, not
Speaker 1: really phased by it. But there is someone else's that
Speaker 1: could boost dividends, could lower stock valuations in the long run.
Speaker 1: On um and you know, it remains to be seen.
Speaker 1: One percent exercise tax. We still are trying to figure
Speaker 1: out the effective day. I asked Struck Schumer that that
Speaker 1: press converse. They don't know, but I think it's effective
Speaker 1: on January one, you might see up NaN's at the
Speaker 1: end of the year of stock by backs. Well, that's
Speaker 1: huge and you also just gave us a little bit
Speaker 1: more news because I don't think Chuck Schumer had the
Speaker 1: answer to that drought money questions. So that is basically
Speaker 1: Kirsten Cinema got everything she wanted here, is that right? Well?
Speaker 1: I mean she got a lot of she got a
Speaker 1: lot of changes that she wanted. And the mystery for
Speaker 1: for us really is why on carring interest you know,
Speaker 1: it's it's Arizona, it's not Manhattan. Why why is this
Speaker 1: a big deal for her? Uh? You know, we did
Speaker 1: ask her office and they said that she viewed it
Speaker 1: as a blow to the Arizona economy and the break
Speaker 1: went away. Uh, but we know we're going to continue
Speaker 1: to dig into that. We know that private equity is
Speaker 1: a big contributed to her campaign. Well that's what the
Speaker 1: story is, right, I mean, you know you've been around
Speaker 1: long enough to know that this this could mean a
Speaker 1: couple of extra checks in the full right. And um,
Speaker 1: you know the other thing is that she said in
Speaker 1: her statement she's going to work with Mark Warner, who
Speaker 1: is the Senator from Virginia, on a possible compromise and
Speaker 1: carried interests. But he was on Bloomberg TV saying, you know,
Speaker 1: it is on a clear path or that. And I
Speaker 1: think you know, if they lose the House or Senate,
Speaker 1: they could try to do another budget bill in December.
Speaker 1: Were already thinking maybe for the debt limit. But uh,
Speaker 1: you know, I think it's it's it's more likely than
Speaker 1: not that this carried interest to Loophole continues to persist
Speaker 1: that Mark Warner interview was was really important, and I boy,
Speaker 1: Republicans aren't buying any of this. Uh, to the point
Speaker 1: where Congressman Lindsey Graham was tweeting threats today. Uh. And
Speaker 1: I don't know how you read this. We'll we'll get
Speaker 1: into this a little bit later with the panel. I'm
Speaker 1: assuming that you saw this. Eric. He's talking about a
Speaker 1: word of advice. He says, to those who support this
Speaker 1: reconciliation deal, if you expect the CR the Continuing Resolution,
Speaker 1: this is the budget CR to deliver a political payoff
Speaker 1: with sixty votes, you might want to rethink. Then he
Speaker 1: replies to his own tweet, if there's something you want
Speaker 1: on this deal that cannot be achieved in reconciliation. If
Speaker 1: I were you, I would get it up front. Is
Speaker 1: he threatening to shut down the government, Eric, or what?
Speaker 1: Well you know maybe you know, I think I think
Speaker 1: it's kind of an empty threat at the end of
Speaker 1: the day. You know, this is similar to when they
Speaker 1: took the Veterans Bill hostage, when the when after the
Speaker 1: Mansion Stumer deal came out, they tried to block this
Speaker 1: veteran bill. Like John Stewart, every wanted to shelve them
Speaker 1: and walk it back. And we've got nothing for you know,
Speaker 1: they're talking about blocking a temporary government spending bill because
Speaker 1: it has fossil fuel permitting reform about it. I mean,
Speaker 1: that is about headline. So this sounds like bluffing reform.
Speaker 1: I just don't. I think it's a bluff. But you know,
Speaker 1: we'll see. We asked uh someone in my college as
Speaker 1: structure values of this long way off shore end of September,
Speaker 1: we'll see. Uh, you know, I just don't. I'm dubious
Speaker 1: about it. He also said somewhere in that press conference
Speaker 1: today that he wants something for South Carolina. It'll make
Speaker 1: a play for that. We're gonna give you a little
Speaker 1: taste of what of what the Senator from South Carolina
Speaker 1: had to say. Eric, Thank you so much. Eric Wasson.
Speaker 1: I hope you get a real weekend after all that work.
Speaker 1: This week, Lindsey Graham in the Gallery the Senate Radio
Speaker 1: TV Gallery today lays it down on this claim of
Speaker 1: this legislation lowering inflation. Here he is, I think it's
Speaker 1: more likely the Taliban didn't know that zar Cowi was
Speaker 1: in Cobbold than this lower's inflation. And why don't I
Speaker 1: say that It takes a lot of time to keep
Speaker 1: girls out of school, measure beards and make sure no
Speaker 1: ankles showing on a burka, So maybe they were just busy.
Speaker 1: The one thing I can tell you about this bill,
Speaker 1: it will not lower inflation. The same people who said
Speaker 1: the American Rescue plan would rescue have thrown you back
Speaker 1: into the water. But wait, I thought it was safe
Speaker 1: to go back in the water. Lindsey Graham stirs it
Speaker 1: up again with the prospect of inflation on the horizon,
Speaker 1: and what now a government shutdown? We reassemble the panel.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg. You sound on
Speaker 1: with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. So even if the
Speaker 1: reconciliation build passes, or I guess especially if it does,
Speaker 1: we could have some interesting games coming up at the
Speaker 1: end of the year in the budgeting process, as Senator
Speaker 1: Lindsey Graham promises to well, I'm not sure what he
Speaker 1: was threatening the people to do what they need to
Speaker 1: do now, you better get it up front. He said,
Speaker 1: if you expect the cr to deliver a political payoff
Speaker 1: with sixty votes, you might want to rethink he was
Speaker 1: in prime form today. Well, you heard him a little
Speaker 1: bit ago, if you were with us here on sound
Speaker 1: on a lot more where that came from, particularly on
Speaker 1: this bill. In a direct message to the Democrat who
Speaker 1: Republicans loved a minute ago, Joe Manchion along with Kirsten Cinema,
Speaker 1: here's Senator Graham. I'm hoping that we can come up
Speaker 1: with proposals that will make sense. Still a few of
Speaker 1: them and they will abandon this jihad their own to
Speaker 1: tax and spend. But I just turn it over to
Speaker 1: John now. But to Joe Manchin, you have a game
Speaker 1: plan that counts on something you need to really think
Speaker 1: long and hard about. We reassembled the panel. Bloomberg Politics
Speaker 1: contributor and Democratic analyst Jennie Schanzano is here today with
Speaker 1: Lizzie Guyton, former calms director from Massachusetts. Governor Charlie Baker
Speaker 1: and uh founding partner of South and Hills Strategies. What
Speaker 1: do you make of this, Lizzie, This is, like I guess,
Speaker 1: really good ammunition for midterms. Right, Republicans dragged this out.
Speaker 1: Not only did Democrats create historic inflation, but then they
Speaker 1: went even further and spent even more, and and did
Speaker 1: it all on their own. Not a single Republican vote.
Speaker 1: Is that what we hear between now and November. Well,
Speaker 1: when it comes of this Reconciliation Bill, now conveniently renamed
Speaker 1: the Inflation Reduction Acts, it's no surprise that no Republicans
Speaker 1: have been on board with this bill, um, and they
Speaker 1: have cited concerns about the taxes and the increase in
Speaker 1: spending that's coming out of an inopportune time when we're
Speaker 1: arguably in a recession and everybody's feeling the heat from inflation.
Speaker 1: But even more broadly, Joe, you know, only according to
Speaker 1: a New York Times poll, only ten percent of the
Speaker 1: nation is feeling positive about the economy right now, and
Speaker 1: I think any discussions of more taxes and more spending
Speaker 1: out of Washington is not going to help qualm those fears.
Speaker 1: But you read the title, It says the Inflation Reduction
Speaker 1: right of the name. What's what's the problem here? And I'm,
Speaker 1: of course I'm being sarcastic, but look, Lizzie, you're a
Speaker 1: specialist in messaging. Um, how does the Republican Party just
Speaker 1: keep the beat on inflation when the administration says, hey,
Speaker 1: I've got something to show for it? Well, I don't
Speaker 1: think that. Uh, the American people, whether you're a Democrat
Speaker 1: or Republican, believe that Washington is going to spend our
Speaker 1: way out of inflation and you know, an economic crisis.
Speaker 1: And I think Washington is really good at putting uh
Speaker 1: appropriate names on bill's. This bill started as a bill
Speaker 1: back better and now it's conveniently been renamed to the
Speaker 1: Inflation Reduction Act at a time where inflation is top
Speaker 1: of mind. But um, it doesn't seem that any Republicans
Speaker 1: and even outside of that, economists and others think that
Speaker 1: there's a lot in here that's actually going to be
Speaker 1: addressing inflation in America right now. So what's uh, what's
Speaker 1: the story from the White House? Then, Jennie and we've
Speaker 1: we've we've been through this a couple of times. Actually
Speaker 1: getting this done you would think would be a win.
Speaker 1: But but the accomplishment is being clouded by the inflation story,
Speaker 1: and Republicans do a really good job telling it. They do.
Speaker 1: But I think we should also remember that this, if
Speaker 1: this bill does pass, and that's still an if, will
Speaker 1: be the largest investment in climate in the history of
Speaker 1: the planet. What does that mean for the campaigns? Though?
Speaker 1: Can that be translated into into motivation in November? It
Speaker 1: absolutely can. I mean, you know, listen Joe By and
Speaker 1: when he ran, he promised to decrease emissions by By
Speaker 1: they're going to get We have been had decades of
Speaker 1: trying to fight the cost of pharmaceuticals. You want to
Speaker 1: talk about polls, Vast majorities of Americans say they pay
Speaker 1: way too much for prescription drugs. We now have Medicare negotiations,
Speaker 1: caps for seniors if this passes again, subsidies for people's
Speaker 1: people on the exchanges, and so this is a big win.
Speaker 1: And also you look at you listen to somebody the
Speaker 1: Republicans like to listen to an awful lot late lately,
Speaker 1: like Larry Summers, and most economisdegree this is deflationary. Yes,
Speaker 1: inflation is a problem. It has to be addressed. But
Speaker 1: this bill is going to decrease the deficit. It's not
Speaker 1: going to add to inflation. And so you know, that's
Speaker 1: the message the White House has to be talking about.
Speaker 1: They know they've got a potentially big win here. And
Speaker 1: this has been a very good couple of weeks for
Speaker 1: Joe Biden, not so much for Mitch McConnell and the
Speaker 1: Republicans who were out maneuvered on this. And as you
Speaker 1: can hear from Lindsay Graham, he's throwing a tantrum now
Speaker 1: about that. You wonder what this if this is going
Speaker 1: to become a standoff over the budget. Though you didn't
Speaker 1: just say Larry Summers was a Republican, did you, Because no,
Speaker 1: no, no no, I said Republicans like to listen to him.
Speaker 1: But that Joe Mansion becomes a Republican Sundays, and so
Speaker 1: does Larry Summers depending on the side of the argument
Speaker 1: there on. But uh, we'll see what happens with this obviously. Uh.
Speaker 1: And we're going to find out in short order that
Speaker 1: the House is coming back next week and then everybody's
Speaker 1: gone to get I guess beat up at at town
Speaker 1: hall meetings. Lizzie, how do you prepare a politician and
Speaker 1: officeholder to meet a room full of people who want
Speaker 1: to yell at him. Well, that's always a tough one, Joe,
Speaker 1: But not that your boss that yelled at very often.
Speaker 1: And I will say that firsthand. Hey, from time to
Speaker 1: time it happens. But you know, I think that part
Speaker 1: of that argument is why, you know, Republicans are concerned
Speaker 1: about this spending bill, which you know is a seven
Speaker 1: page bill with no CBO scorer and we still have
Speaker 1: you know what, twenty hours of debate to look forward
Speaker 1: to with amend and so we're not exactly sure how
Speaker 1: it's going to shake out. Um, but you know the
Speaker 1: devils and the details. You know, people are worried about
Speaker 1: high gas prices, are worried about the high cost of food.
Speaker 1: They're worried about these trends in the economy, uh and
Speaker 1: inflation continuing to outpace wages. And that's what people are
Speaker 1: going to hear about, whether you're a Democrat or a
Speaker 1: Republican when you go home in your district and you know,
Speaker 1: in the event that there this bill does pass and
Speaker 1: there could be new taxes that could impact you know,
Speaker 1: the oil and gas industry, if that's going to end
Speaker 1: up translating to consumers seeing higher prices at the pump
Speaker 1: or higher utilities in a few months. Um, that's gonna
Speaker 1: be a problem. And you know, we have to think
Speaker 1: about these things a little bit more long term. Uh.
Speaker 1: You know, being in the Northeast, we've already heard from
Speaker 1: some utilities for electric rates that they're gonna nearly double
Speaker 1: this winter. And that has nothing to do with the
Speaker 1: bill that we're talking about. But you know, when these
Speaker 1: things stuck up, they really give people a lot of
Speaker 1: anxiety and again just you know, growing more spending out it.
Speaker 1: It feeds a narrative. Correct. Well, I'll tell you, speaking
Speaker 1: of mid terms, I'm deeply curious to see what happens
Speaker 1: with this race in Wyoming for Liz Chaining. You guys
Speaker 1: probably saw the ad with Dick Cheney. If you haven't,
Speaker 1: it's really worth your attention. It's it's I think it's
Speaker 1: been pretty well reviewed as being very well produced. Dick Cheney,
Speaker 1: who we don't see a lot of sitting outdoors with
Speaker 1: the cowboy hat on, uh and and in a very
Speaker 1: well written and delivered ad, although you can hear in
Speaker 1: his voice that you know he's put a couple of
Speaker 1: years on him. Listen to this ad from Dick Cheney
Speaker 1: on behalf of his daughter, Liz Cheney at least a portion,
Speaker 1: and our nation's two d and forty six year history,
Speaker 1: there has never been an individual who is a greater
Speaker 1: threat to our Republic than Donald Trump. He tried to
Speaker 1: steal the last election using lies and violence to keep
Speaker 1: himself in power after the voters had rejected him. He's
Speaker 1: a coward. A real man wouldn't lie to his supporters.
Speaker 1: He lost his election, and he lost big. I know it,
Speaker 1: he knows it, and deep down, I think most Republicans
Speaker 1: know it. Lynn and I are so proud of Liz
Speaker 1: for standing up for the truth, honoring her oath to
Speaker 1: the institution, and so many in our party are too
Speaker 1: scared to do so. You know, very effective message here,
Speaker 1: uh be calling Donald Trump and Howard a real man,
Speaker 1: Genie H doesn't lie to his supporters. First of all,
Speaker 1: is this an effective ad? Because we I think that
Speaker 1: the prognosis is still a loss for for Liz Cheney
Speaker 1: and in his Dick Cheney the right messenger to be
Speaker 1: talking about being honest to your supporters. Yeah, it's a
Speaker 1: very effective ad. And he goes right after Donald Trump
Speaker 1: where it's got a hurt. And you know, I always
Speaker 1: try to follow truth social to see what's happening and
Speaker 1: how Trump is responding. So yeah, I'll keep you posted
Speaker 1: on that. But you know, it's a very effective ad.
Speaker 1: He's you know, it's a very Western look, and he's
Speaker 1: a very obviously very proud of his daughter, and and
Speaker 1: you know, and and of course the number of Liberals
Speaker 1: who are now complimenting Dick Cheney is quite a head spinning,
Speaker 1: you know, realization of what's happened in the last few years.
Speaker 1: We don't know. I don't think we know what's going
Speaker 1: to happen out there. There are poles which suggest she's
Speaker 1: way behind, but the polls in these midterms are few
Speaker 1: and far between. She's got a lot of money, a
Speaker 1: lot of name recognition. I think she likely a bunch
Speaker 1: of Democrats vote for maybe Democrats she like that. People
Speaker 1: say she likely still will lose, and that could be,
Speaker 1: but I think she's going to put up quite a fight,
Speaker 1: and who knows, if she loses, she may be running
Speaker 1: in twenty four. That does the ad work for you, Lizzie?
Speaker 1: Does it make a difference. I think that it was
Speaker 1: a very effective, and I agree with Jean, but I
Speaker 1: also think, you know, it makes sense for Liz Cheney
Speaker 1: based on her race and her platform and how she's
Speaker 1: uh conducted herself and been very straightforward about how she
Speaker 1: feels about the Trump administration UM on a go forward basis.
Speaker 1: And sure she has a tough race ahead of her UM,
Speaker 1: but there are you know, several Republicans that are willing
Speaker 1: to share their viewpoint about Donald Trump if they do
Speaker 1: not agree with him or you know, do not want
Speaker 1: to support him, and I think there's room for those opinions.
Speaker 1: It's sometimes hard to read the tea leaves in these
Speaker 1: primaries because as we know, on both sides, Democrats and
Speaker 1: Republicans both tend to you know, run to the far
Speaker 1: left or the far right. UM and the general election
Speaker 1: campaign a much different picture. Well, i'll tell you what,
Speaker 1: based on reports, Republicans are working really hard to try
Speaker 1: to turn this around in why I mean, that's the
Speaker 1: six of August, by the way, the primary before we
Speaker 1: say goodbye to Lizzie, and we don't have a lot
Speaker 1: of time, Lizzie, but I just wanted to acknowledge the
Speaker 1: fact that you used to work for Representative Jackie will
Speaker 1: Orski and flags are at half staff in Washington after
Speaker 1: the Republican from Indiana was tragically killed in a car
Speaker 1: accident with two staffers this week. She was in the
Speaker 1: leadership and leadership set to chair an important committee. Lizzie
Speaker 1: and a real loss in Washington. Absolutely. I had the
Speaker 1: pleasure of working for her in two thousand, twelve hundred
Speaker 1: campaign and she won that election by four thousand votes
Speaker 1: to flip the seat from blue seat to a red seat.
Speaker 1: And I gotta tell you, Joe, her husband Dean Swytheart
Speaker 1: at a vigil last night, said it best Jackie knew
Speaker 1: who she was. And you know, oftentimes in politics week
Speaker 1: sort of talk about the rancor and the gridlock. But um,
Speaker 1: to me, Jackie was above that. She was fair, she
Speaker 1: was kind, She was a smart team player. This is Bloomberg.