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Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia. All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight,
Speaker 1: presented by Vandel here at the volume. Happy Saturday, everybody.
Speaker 1: I hope all of you are having a good weekend
Speaker 1: so far. I wanted to take a little bit of
Speaker 1: time today to preview the second round because, like I said,
Speaker 1: at the beginning of this playoff run, I thought this
Speaker 1: was gonna be one of the most exciting playoff runs
Speaker 1: that we've seen in recent NBA history, with all the
Speaker 1: talent and all the good teams, and we have at
Speaker 1: least three incredible matchups. Miami Philly is a little weird
Speaker 1: because Miami is kind of the strange outlier team that
Speaker 1: doesn't have the level of star power that the other
Speaker 1: teams have, and Philly's dealing with this Joel Embiid injury thing,
Speaker 1: but even that series has quite a bit of intrigue.
Speaker 1: We're going to start with Boston and Milwaukee, which is
Speaker 1: a playoff series that I'm about as excited for as
Speaker 1: I've ever been for a playoff series, kind of similar
Speaker 1: to that Brooklyn Nets series. It's this concept of the
Speaker 1: team that is achieving something that I haven't seen a
Speaker 1: team achieve in a very long time, versus you know,
Speaker 1: in the last round KD a player I thought was
Speaker 1: the best player in the world at the time although
Speaker 1: no longer, and a guy in Janice who is absolutely
Speaker 1: on equivocally the best player left in this playoff front.
Speaker 1: So it's kind of like the the the age old
Speaker 1: concept of the best player on the floor versus the
Speaker 1: best team and which is going to win. We've had
Speaker 1: a lot of conversations over the course of this season,
Speaker 1: pretty much ever since that Son's playoff series with the
Speaker 1: Lakers last year on our show, where I've been very
Speaker 1: very interested to see with the direction the league is going,
Speaker 1: how how valuable having the best player on the floor
Speaker 1: is now compared to the way it was ten years ago,
Speaker 1: with the way teams can double and recover and how
Speaker 1: important it is to have guys off the ball that
Speaker 1: can make plays off the dribble, and Milwaukee in particular
Speaker 1: is kind of set up in a very traditional sense.
Speaker 1: They defended a trade sational sense. On the offensive end,
Speaker 1: they have a lot of guys that are spot up guys,
Speaker 1: not necessarily like close out attacker, higher end offensive talent
Speaker 1: type of guys like Boston has. So it's a super
Speaker 1: super interesting dynamic going against Boston, which is, as I
Speaker 1: have said on this show so many times, I think,
Speaker 1: is a very very modern, almost ahead of its time
Speaker 1: type of team construct. So just an unbelievably interesting matchup.
Speaker 1: So the regular season series between these two teams is
Speaker 1: completely worthless. They played three of their games back in
Speaker 1: one and then the fourth matchup between the these two
Speaker 1: teams took place right for the end of the season
Speaker 1: in a game where both teams sat out a bunch
Speaker 1: of important players. So not a whole lot you can
Speaker 1: take from the season series. However, in fifty six minutes
Speaker 1: this year, when both Tatum and Janice were on the floor,
Speaker 1: meaning Boston and Milwaukee with their best players playing. Boston
Speaker 1: was plus seventeen, but again, can't take too much from that.
Speaker 1: A lot of those minutes, all of those minutes actually
Speaker 1: took place literally in a different calendar year, so it's
Speaker 1: hard to take too much away from that. I want
Speaker 1: to start with Milwaukee on offense. So guarding Janice, We've
Speaker 1: talked a lot about this on the show. I won't
Speaker 1: go too deep into it today, but the gist of
Speaker 1: it is, I expect your honest to have a great
Speaker 1: deal of success in his supplementary offense offensive rebounding, particularly
Speaker 1: on his own misses, but just him bulldozing around the
Speaker 1: rim and being just bigger and stronger than everybody and
Speaker 1: grabbing offensive rebounds and put backs. The reason why is,
Speaker 1: you know, specifically, when it comes to offensive rebounding, it's
Speaker 1: not so much about manpower as it is about one
Speaker 1: single person being unboxed outable, you know what I mean. So, like,
Speaker 1: there could be three Celtics around the rim with Janice,
Speaker 1: and he's just too big and strong and athletic, and
Speaker 1: he'll get them all, you know what I mean. So
Speaker 1: I think he'll have a lot of supplementary offense that
Speaker 1: will lead to better counting stats. I think janice Is
Speaker 1: statistical series will appear much better than Kevin Durant's statistical series. However,
Speaker 1: I expect Boston to give your honest problems in every
Speaker 1: a lot of the same ways that Kevin Durant had
Speaker 1: problems getting to his spots and catching the ball. Boston
Speaker 1: did a really good job with Katie of disrupting Katie
Speaker 1: on post entries. They had a ton of turnovers on
Speaker 1: post entries because they would have basically Tatum gamble to
Speaker 1: one side on the post entry and they'd send help
Speaker 1: on the other side. And even when he did catch,
Speaker 1: Katie would quick turn and there'd be people diving at
Speaker 1: the ball. So they made it complicated to get Katie
Speaker 1: the basketball. And then they did a really good job
Speaker 1: of testing Katie's handle, very aggressive with length being like
Speaker 1: lots of reaching and testing Katie's ability to handle the basketball.
Speaker 1: And Katie and Janice are good ball handlers, but they're tall,
Speaker 1: and that causes issues when you have guys reaching in
Speaker 1: because there's just so much more distance that the ball
Speaker 1: has to travel. So specifically with Joannice, I expect him
Speaker 1: to have a lot of similar issues to Katie turning
Speaker 1: the basketball over, struggling with handling a ton of traffic,
Speaker 1: passing out of double teams, and things like that. I
Speaker 1: expect your honest to struggle there. But with his supplementary offense,
Speaker 1: with his fensive rebound and transition, there will be a
Speaker 1: half dozen possessions every game where just because of the
Speaker 1: way that a Celtic misses a shot. Janice will have
Speaker 1: a head of steam and no one will be able
Speaker 1: to stop him, and you'll get layups and dunks and
Speaker 1: free throws and stuff out of that. So Janna will
Speaker 1: have a statistically successful sees series, but I expect him
Speaker 1: to struggle overall. The other thing that's interesting with Milwaukee
Speaker 1: on offense is this news with Chris Middleton. So Sham's
Speaker 1: or any reported I believe two days ago that Chris
Speaker 1: Middleton will be out for the entire series and potentially
Speaker 1: even the Eastern Conference Finals should the Bucks make it
Speaker 1: to that point. This is why that's important. Boston is
Speaker 1: a pure switch everything team, especially with Rob Williams in
Speaker 1: the lineup. They really only run drop when daniel Tys
Speaker 1: is out there because they don't want to get daniel
Speaker 1: Tye into switches. Right, So it's gonna be a switch
Speaker 1: everything team, and that inherently turns you into a matchup
Speaker 1: attacking team. So we know Janice can attack matchups, but
Speaker 1: we just discussed all the ways that Boston's gonna try
Speaker 1: to disrupt that. So that leaves it to Drew Holiday
Speaker 1: as your other guy who can attack matchups. The probable
Speaker 1: there is. This is where the lack of Chris Middleton
Speaker 1: is an issue, because Chris Middleton last year was an
Speaker 1: excellent option for Milwaukee to go to two attack matchups,
Speaker 1: especially as a three level score who's six ft eight
Speaker 1: and can you know, hit back to the basket shots
Speaker 1: out of the post, and hit off the dribble shots
Speaker 1: from the perimeter and can get to the rim and
Speaker 1: all of those things, right, So having Chris Middleton out
Speaker 1: there is a significant loss when you're attacking a switching defense.
Speaker 1: Not that it might it might not have mattered anyway.
Speaker 1: You guys know how high I am on Boston. I
Speaker 1: probably would have picked Boston to win this series regardless,
Speaker 1: but with Chris Middleton out it makes it significantly tougher
Speaker 1: Milwaukee on defense. I wanted to just kind of give
Speaker 1: you guys a couple of of really really basic stats
Speaker 1: to demonstrate just how how dominant this Boston team has been.
Speaker 1: You know there we talked about this in a pod
Speaker 1: last week, But I don't know if it's the anti
Speaker 1: Celtics bias, uh that you know, kind of similar to
Speaker 1: the anti Lakers bias, which is just natural in the NBA.
Speaker 1: Fan base are the two most successful fan aces, and
Speaker 1: they're the two loudest fan bases, which kind of inherently
Speaker 1: makes them unlikable to everybody. But the thing is is
Speaker 1: that has poisoned people's minds into thinking that the sweep
Speaker 1: of the Brooklyn Nets was about Brooklyn being terrible more
Speaker 1: so than Boston being great, when the reality is since January,
Speaker 1: when all of this took out for took off for Boston,
Speaker 1: Boston is thirty two and seven. Since January, they have
Speaker 1: the best offense in the league, the best defense in
Speaker 1: the league. They're five points per Hunter possessions better than everybody.
Speaker 1: On defense, They're seven and a half points better overall
Speaker 1: per one Hunter possessions than everybody in the league. So
Speaker 1: they're they've been unbelievably dominant. So it's poisoning people's minds
Speaker 1: in making them think that you know the first round
Speaker 1: series was a fluke based on matchups in Katie and Kyrie,
Speaker 1: you know, pissing down their leg, And that's not what happened.
Speaker 1: They ran into the best team in the NBA. So
Speaker 1: why do I bring that up right now because we're
Speaker 1: talking about Boston on off it's against Milwaukee, and I
Speaker 1: bet you if you asked the vast majority of casual fans,
Speaker 1: they would think of Boston is not a very good offense.
Speaker 1: But again, and this is the important detail, where you're
Speaker 1: in a thirty nine game stretch here, where they've been
Speaker 1: the best offense in all of basketball. Just in this
Speaker 1: postseason run, Boston has the best half court offense and
Speaker 1: the best transition offense. According to Cleaning the Glass, this
Speaker 1: is an unbelievably good offensive team. And specifically with Milwaukee,
Speaker 1: we've talked about how Milwaukee struggles because their defense is
Speaker 1: set up to take away the paint, so they attack
Speaker 1: specific matchups. Teams like Chicago that kind of live inside
Speaker 1: the three point line, they're gonna have a lot of success.
Speaker 1: But against teams that generate quality three point shots and
Speaker 1: can knock them down, they struggle. Again, this is important
Speaker 1: to understand Milwaukee's defense this season was average on a
Speaker 1: point per one hundred possessions allowed basis despite the fact
Speaker 1: that they were dominant and shutting off the paint and
Speaker 1: dominant on the defensive glass, it was strictly because their
Speaker 1: defense would over help and give up a ton of threes.
Speaker 1: On the back end, they were not good at rotating
Speaker 1: around two shooters. One last stat I'm gonna give you
Speaker 1: on this to kind of seal the deal here. Since
Speaker 1: January this stretch with Boston, Boston is fifth in three
Speaker 1: point volume, so in total three point attempts per game
Speaker 1: compared to their the rest of the league in third
Speaker 1: in three point percentage. So this is the opposite of
Speaker 1: the Chicago situation. This is a team that is great
Speaker 1: at generating wide open threes and great at knocking them down.
Speaker 1: So even if we throw away everything that I've loved
Speaker 1: about this Boston team on the defensive end, which is
Speaker 1: where I derived my confidence in this matchup, it's the
Speaker 1: other end of the floor of Boston has an advantage
Speaker 1: as well against the very specific Milwaukee weakness, and so
Speaker 1: in this case, I'm picking Boston in five. I think
Speaker 1: Milwaukee will get one game on their home floor. Game
Speaker 1: three or Game four, we'll see, but I expect this
Speaker 1: to be a dominant Boston Celtics victory. I expect Janice
Speaker 1: to struggle despite having better counting stats than k D.
Speaker 1: And you just need to keep it simple, guys. Since
Speaker 1: January twenty three, Boston is the best team in the league,
Speaker 1: best on offense, best on defense. They demonstrated in the
Speaker 1: first round against Brooklyn that they're one of the best
Speaker 1: defensive teams that we have ever seen. Milwaukee is missing
Speaker 1: their second most important player and arguably one of the
Speaker 1: most important matchup attackers in Chris Middleton. So just simply
Speaker 1: on the surface, we know that Boston is a better
Speaker 1: basketball team at a health advantage in this series. To
Speaker 1: be clear, this is how much I think Boston is
Speaker 1: a favorite. If Milwaukee were to win this series, it
Speaker 1: would be an accomplishment for Joannice on part with like
Speaker 1: two thousand seven Lebron knocking out the Pistons. It would
Speaker 1: be one of the greatest accomplishments not associated with an
Speaker 1: NBA title in NBA history. That's how confident I am
Speaker 1: in Boston. That's the challenge that's in front of Janice.
Speaker 1: If he can pull it off. I have nothing but
Speaker 1: props for the guy, but that's the type of of
Speaker 1: situation that he's facing here. This is an all time
Speaker 1: great defense in a Boston Celtics team that has been
Speaker 1: clearly better than everybody else, and Nice is without his
Speaker 1: co star. It's gonna be tough. He's capable of it.
Speaker 1: Definitely give Milwaukee a chance, but I'm picking Boston in five.
Speaker 1: All right, Let's move on to Golden State Memphis. This
Speaker 1: is I think the second most interesting series in the
Speaker 1: first round. Another series where the regular season it's tough
Speaker 1: to take things from because especially that they had matchups
Speaker 1: very early in the season where they were healthy. But
Speaker 1: you know, Memphis wasn't as dominant back then as they
Speaker 1: are now. And then as we get closer to the
Speaker 1: end of the season, you've got a game where Draymond
Speaker 1: Green was not playing, and then you have a game
Speaker 1: where Steph Curry and Draymond Green did not play. So again,
Speaker 1: these regular season series is make it extremely difficult to
Speaker 1: predict because guys are just missing games, which is a
Speaker 1: whole other conversation we need to have about the NBA
Speaker 1: and Stars missing games. But let's do our best to
Speaker 1: try to get as close of an indication of what
Speaker 1: we think these teams are gonna do based on what
Speaker 1: we did see this year. So again, like I did
Speaker 1: with the Celtics Buck Series, there were ninety four minutes
Speaker 1: this year where the Warriors and the Grizzlies played each
Speaker 1: other and Steph and Jaw were both on the floor together.
Speaker 1: In those minutes, the Warriors were plus twenty four in
Speaker 1: ninety four minutes. Excellent on the defensive end, pretty good
Speaker 1: on the offensive ent, uh in those in those specific
Speaker 1: matchups between with the Warriors, John Morantz drives, according to
Speaker 1: the NBA's tracking data, were slightly down over his regular
Speaker 1: season averages. His restricted area makes were down compared to
Speaker 1: his regular season averages. So a couple of things there
Speaker 1: that are indicative of the fact that Golden State has
Speaker 1: had more success guarding job than the rest of the
Speaker 1: league has. However, it gets complicated because that's kind of
Speaker 1: a team effort thing, and that can get a little
Speaker 1: bit uh. That can get a little tricky in the
Speaker 1: playoffs when coaches have more time to scout and there
Speaker 1: are perimeter defenders for Golden State that are gonna struggle
Speaker 1: guarding job. So let's start with Memphis on offense for
Speaker 1: that reason, So a couple of things containing Jaw is
Speaker 1: gonna be the biggest predicament of the series we talk
Speaker 1: about With Memphis, their biggest issue is they don't have
Speaker 1: half court creators outside of Jaw. Jaren Jackson Jr. Is
Speaker 1: a can attack matchups, but he struggles in traffic because
Speaker 1: he doesn't see the floor well. Desmond Bayane is more
Speaker 1: of a slasher guy who can attack off of advantages.
Speaker 1: He's not a guy that's fantastic at creating his own
Speaker 1: shot or creating shots for other people. So Golden State
Speaker 1: will be able to key in on Jaw. The trick
Speaker 1: is a lot of Golden State lineups, namely even the
Speaker 1: Death lineup, the Death Lineup Number three or whatever it is.
Speaker 1: With Jordan Pool, Clay Thompson and Steph Curry in the backcourt,
Speaker 1: none of those three guys can keep John Moran in front,
Speaker 1: and so there will be potential for Memphis to play
Speaker 1: Golden State out of some of their favorite lineups, and
Speaker 1: as a result of that, it may put them in
Speaker 1: a predicament where they have to go with Gary Payton Jr.
Speaker 1: A lot more. Gary Payton Jr. Played amazingly well in
Speaker 1: Game five against Denver, but he's not the same level
Speaker 1: of offensive player as a Jordan Pool or as a
Speaker 1: Clay Thompson. So those are those trade offs you get.
Speaker 1: I like Gary Payton Jr. To have a better chance
Speaker 1: of containing John Morant, But the flip side is is
Speaker 1: you suffer some losses on the offensive end of the floor.
Speaker 1: That will be tricky. However, Golden State I do think
Speaker 1: will have more capability to help and rotate out of that,
Speaker 1: especially with Draymond on the back line. Where I get
Speaker 1: most concerned for UH, for Golden State in this series
Speaker 1: is Memphis attacking the offensive glass. So uh in half
Speaker 1: court settings this season, So just in the half court
Speaker 1: this season, Memphis rebounded a third of their own misses. Literally,
Speaker 1: They're the best offensive rebounding team in the league. We
Speaker 1: talked a lot about how they stole games from Minnesota
Speaker 1: in the first round, particularly Brandon Clark, but they stole
Speaker 1: games from Memphis from Minnesota in the first round just
Speaker 1: by crashing the offensive glass. We specifically saw Denver give
Speaker 1: Golden State a lot of issues attacking the offensive glass.
Speaker 1: Main main reason why this is not a big Warriors team.
Speaker 1: They're only big when they play Kevon Looney next Draymond
Speaker 1: with Andrew Wiggins, and even then they're not huge, They're
Speaker 1: just big enough to hang. And then there comes a
Speaker 1: whole bunch of offensive issues when you go with Kevin Looney.
Speaker 1: In that regard as well, there's a trade off, just
Speaker 1: like we were talking about with Gary Payton Jr. So
Speaker 1: their ability to keep Memphis off the glass is gonna
Speaker 1: be an issue just like it was with Denver, and
Speaker 1: it's going to give Memphis a lot of extra possessions
Speaker 1: and that could be an issue. And then lastly, with
Speaker 1: Memphis on offense, I worry with Dre Draymond Green with
Speaker 1: fatigue and foul trouble, so kind of like we saw
Speaker 1: in Game five against Denver and just in general, over
Speaker 1: the course of that series, Draymond started to wear down,
Speaker 1: not because he's not capable, but because there's so little
Speaker 1: depth in the front court for Golden State. Was a
Speaker 1: need they never addressed this season. I don't know if
Speaker 1: they just thought James Wiseman was coming back or if
Speaker 1: they just didn't think they'd need it, but they never
Speaker 1: addressed their front court need for depth, and as a result,
Speaker 1: there is a ton on Draymond Green's plate, and so
Speaker 1: all it takes is Jah flying into the lane a
Speaker 1: couple of times to start a game, or Jaren Jackson Jr.
Speaker 1: Attacking on you know, quick catching rip thorough moves to
Speaker 1: pick up a couple of quick fouls on Draymond and
Speaker 1: he could be in trouble and then fatigue, like we said,
Speaker 1: over the course of the series, could be an issue.
Speaker 1: So front court depth is gonna be the biggest area
Speaker 1: where Memphis has an advantage. Wearing down Draymond, getting him
Speaker 1: in foul trouble, and crashing the hell out of the
Speaker 1: offensive glass. It's going to put Golden State in a
Speaker 1: predicament where they have to play bigger players, a lot
Speaker 1: more out of Porter Jr. A lot more Gary Payton Jr.
Speaker 1: As a guy crashing the on the on the wings
Speaker 1: to help defensive rebound. That could then lead to the
Speaker 1: cascading effect of causing Golden State problems on offense. So
Speaker 1: that's gonna be the tricky part. Now, moving to Golden
Speaker 1: State on offense. First of all, this is where I
Speaker 1: think Golden State has their best advantage. During the regular season,
Speaker 1: Memphis was a better half court offense team according to
Speaker 1: cleaning the glass. But obviously the postseason and the regular
Speaker 1: season are two completely different things. And you saw Minnesota
Speaker 1: give Memphis a ton of issues with their drible containment,
Speaker 1: which was their best gill during the regular season, and
Speaker 1: it gave Memphis issues in the half court. During just
Speaker 1: this postseason, the Warriors are averaging a hundred and twenty
Speaker 1: three point four points per half court possession, which is
Speaker 1: ten and a half points better than Memphis managed in
Speaker 1: the first round against Minnesota. Minnesota is a better defense
Speaker 1: than Denver, so there's some context there. But I do
Speaker 1: trust the Golden State's decision making in the half court
Speaker 1: more than I trust Memphis decision making in the half court.
Speaker 1: And this kind of takes me to that Minnesota series,
Speaker 1: which I thought was a really really strange series because
Speaker 1: in six games and we picked Memphis and six we
Speaker 1: got I think we got six of the eight first
Speaker 1: round series is correct. We were wrong about Brooklyn and
Speaker 1: we were wrong about Filling, but that was one of
Speaker 1: the series we were right about. However, the tricky thing
Speaker 1: was is in the six games, Minnesota had controlling leads
Speaker 1: second half, like significant advantages in the second half. In
Speaker 1: five of the six games. So there's a bunch of
Speaker 1: different ways to look at that. Some of that is
Speaker 1: the game getting helter skelter and transition in Minnesota having
Speaker 1: guys that aren't great at closing games, which we talked about.
Speaker 1: But part of it is, and this is something I
Speaker 1: pointed out on the show, Memphis fly out came out
Speaker 1: flat like four or five times in that series. That
Speaker 1: is a weird thing for a team that has expectations
Speaker 1: and hasn't been to the mountaintop before. And part of
Speaker 1: this is, like, like we always talked about, you have
Speaker 1: to build up scar tissue over the years of having
Speaker 1: hard losses and pain and heartbreak that caused you to
Speaker 1: fear losing so much that you don't come out flat.
Speaker 1: And Memphis hasn't had that heartache yet. And here's the
Speaker 1: thing against Minnesota, it just falls. It makes you fall
Speaker 1: behind and you can recover. Against a team like Golden State,
Speaker 1: if you come out flat, you'll get beat because you're
Speaker 1: not coming back against them when they get a twenty
Speaker 1: point advantage of against you. They've been there too many times, right,
Speaker 1: They've had too much pain and suffering over the course
Speaker 1: of their decade of basketball. They know what it takes,
Speaker 1: so a lot of Memphis is sloppiness and general just
Speaker 1: like youth, is going to be something that I think
Speaker 1: is going to cause them problems in this series. Another
Speaker 1: thing is I'm gonna be really curious to see how,
Speaker 1: specifically how Steve Kerr finds ways to attack John Moran,
Speaker 1: because Golden State is not a dribbled drive team really
Speaker 1: that much. Stephan Clay do drive to the basket off
Speaker 1: of attention from their three point shooting, but every team
Speaker 1: in the league kind of gives up those types of
Speaker 1: drives because they're pressing up on the shot. I'm really
Speaker 1: curious to see if Jordan's Pool, in particular, because he
Speaker 1: is their best burst guard, He's their best quick, first step,
Speaker 1: beat people to the basket type of guard. How much
Speaker 1: they can use Jordan Pool to attack John Moran. How
Speaker 1: willing is Memphis to give up switches to put John
Speaker 1: Moran specifically on Jordan Pool even further? Can Golden State
Speaker 1: play Jordan Pool enough? They had to bench him in
Speaker 1: the fourth quarter of that game five against Denver because
Speaker 1: he was struggling defensively, and he was struggling on the
Speaker 1: defensive glass. Well, that could be an issue in this
Speaker 1: series as well. Like we were talking about with trying
Speaker 1: to guard jaw so that having Jordan's pool out there
Speaker 1: on the offensive end, a lot of that has to
Speaker 1: do with how well he holds up on the defensive end. Overall,
Speaker 1: my my brain and everything that I know about these
Speaker 1: teams tells me that Golden State should win and win easy,
Speaker 1: that they should win in five games. But I think
Speaker 1: in general, the length and athleticism and size of Memphis,
Speaker 1: in conjunction with the pace that they play at, in
Speaker 1: conjunction with the way that they attack the offensive glass,
Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of potential to wear Golden
Speaker 1: State down and drag this series out. And so I'm
Speaker 1: picking Golden State, but I'm picking them in seven. I
Speaker 1: think this is going to be a long series. I
Speaker 1: think physical advantages are gonna keep Memphis in the series,
Speaker 1: as well as home court advantage. But I am going
Speaker 1: to favor the veteran team that is better and better
Speaker 1: with execution in the end. So I'm picking Golden State
Speaker 1: in seven. All right, We're gonna rip through these last
Speaker 1: two series is pretty quickly. I do find them interesting,
Speaker 1: just less interesting than the first two. So let's start
Speaker 1: with Philly. Miami. Obviously, the mb thing makes it super complicated.
Speaker 1: That was a really strange report yesterday, Like you could
Speaker 1: interpret that as and be it's gonna sit out the
Speaker 1: rest of the playoffs. You could also interpret it as
Speaker 1: he just has a concussion and he could be back
Speaker 1: by Monday. Right, So we don't know what to say.
Speaker 1: So for the sake of here's the thing. If em
Speaker 1: beads out, Miami's winning the series. So we don't even
Speaker 1: have to get into that if Embiad's gonna miss the playoffs.
Speaker 1: But let's quickly break down with the series would look
Speaker 1: like if Emba did play, because that would be the
Speaker 1: only the only scenario in which this series would be
Speaker 1: worth watching and worth breaking down. So let's start with
Speaker 1: Miami and offense specifically. What worries me with this situation
Speaker 1: is and Bead's ability to hang out around the rim.
Speaker 1: Toronto did a really nice job with their five out
Speaker 1: kind of driving kick attack of making him Bead cover
Speaker 1: a lot of ground on the perimeter, but they met
Speaker 1: a bio in the way that he's utilized in their system.
Speaker 1: Hangs out a lot around the high post, kind of
Speaker 1: like Yokis does, does a lot of dribble handoffs and
Speaker 1: ball screens, but he can't shoot. That is going to
Speaker 1: lead to a dynamic where Joel Embiid can camp around
Speaker 1: the basket. That will be the biggest indicator of this
Speaker 1: series in Miami's ability to score. Can they forced Joel
Speaker 1: Embiad to cover ground in the ter So much of
Speaker 1: that will have to do with will Philly's guards and
Speaker 1: wings do a good job of chasing guys over the
Speaker 1: top of all their dribble handoff actions, because if they struggle,
Speaker 1: if Bamadi Bio gets Duncan Robinson and Tyler Harrow and
Speaker 1: all these guys a bunch of and Gay Vincent and
Speaker 1: and Max Sterr's wide open looks flying off of these
Speaker 1: dribble handoffs, then Embeat has to come out to show
Speaker 1: on the dribble handoffs. If Embat has to come out
Speaker 1: and show on the dribble handoffs, now Joe Embiad is
Speaker 1: further away from the basket, which opens up opportunities for
Speaker 1: everybody to get to the rim for Miami. So huge
Speaker 1: part of this specific matchup is going to be how
Speaker 1: successful is Philly at keeping him Beat around the rim.
Speaker 1: A couple other things, Jimmy Butler's health had knee issues.
Speaker 1: He missed Game five of the Atlanta the Atlanta Hawks series.
Speaker 1: How available is he gonna be? How successful is he
Speaker 1: gonna be? That's gonna be the interesting wrinkle. Miami's best
Speaker 1: chance to win this series is if Jimmy Butler is
Speaker 1: healthy and like capable of doing the same types of
Speaker 1: things that he did in the Bubble playoff run when
Speaker 1: he was so dominant. Then, lastly, with Miami on offense,
Speaker 1: how successful will they be attacking James Harden and Tyrese Maxie.
Speaker 1: Philly has great defensive players on a lot of spots
Speaker 1: on the floor. Joel and Beads great defensive player. Tobias
Speaker 1: Harris is very good, you know. Uh, Mattistabel is very good,
Speaker 1: although he has offensive issues that lead him to having
Speaker 1: trouble playing. Danny Green is a pretty dependable defensive player
Speaker 1: in the playoffs. But Tyres Maxie and James Harden, they struggle,
Speaker 1: specifically with the Tyris Maxie kind of reminds me of
Speaker 1: a lot of young defensive guards, Like there are possessions
Speaker 1: where he looks great, but then there are possessions where
Speaker 1: he gets lost. It's kind of part of the deal.
Speaker 1: With being young. And then James Harden just doesn't care
Speaker 1: enough to put in the work and he's not mobile
Speaker 1: enough to contain people on the perimeter. He only does
Speaker 1: well defending post mismatches. So how successful will Miami be
Speaker 1: attacking James Harden Tyris Maxie will go a long way
Speaker 1: towards Miami's ability to score Philly on offense. There there
Speaker 1: are two things specifically that I wanted to look at. Here,
Speaker 1: can Bam at a bio cover Joel embiad in single coverage?
Speaker 1: Because if he can, it diminishes the shot quality for
Speaker 1: everybody else on Philly makes the entire game significantly harder.
Speaker 1: James Harden has less room to operate. Tobias Harris and
Speaker 1: Tyres Maxie don't get as many of the wide open
Speaker 1: opportunities that they get to build their confidence and build
Speaker 1: their rhythm give them the ability to go off in
Speaker 1: more uh contested situations. So BAM's ability to garden bead
Speaker 1: huge swing factor for the series. You'll know pretty quickly
Speaker 1: in Game one if he's up to that challenge. And
Speaker 1: then last, and this is the biggest reason I'm picking
Speaker 1: Philly to win the series. And six, by the way,
Speaker 1: if Joel Embiad is healthy, and the biggest reason why
Speaker 1: I'm going that way is there one There's one area
Speaker 1: in that first round that I vastly underestimated. We talked
Speaker 1: a lot about this in the show that we did
Speaker 1: the other day on on Thursday Night, The Different when
Speaker 1: we were talking about the difference between shooters and makers
Speaker 1: and how confident guys like Tobias Harris and Danny Green
Speaker 1: and Tyres Maxie are when they get open looks because
Speaker 1: they are makers, not shooters. They're very, very good shooters
Speaker 1: that are confident in their shot. Well, I I think
Speaker 1: I've like resoundly underestimated how much shooting Philly has And
Speaker 1: a huge part of what made that Toronto series is
Speaker 1: dominant of a performance as it was for Philly was
Speaker 1: all this attention devoted to Himbiid. The ball would just
Speaker 1: get swinging around, even if Embid blew the first you know,
Speaker 1: double team read, it would be swinging, swinging, and there
Speaker 1: would be somebody with some type of advantage in Danny
Speaker 1: Green and Tobias Harris and Tyres Maxie are just gonna
Speaker 1: knock down these shots. They were eleven for twenty three
Speaker 1: in Game five or in game six up in Toronto.
Speaker 1: That amount of shooting, I think is going to make
Speaker 1: Miami pay. Miami, by the way, just like Milwaukee, is
Speaker 1: another team that gives up a ton of open threes. Now,
Speaker 1: they actually lead the league in the half court in
Speaker 1: three point uh Milwaukee overall gave up the most threes,
Speaker 1: but Miami and the half court gave up according to
Speaker 1: Cleaning the Glass, give up the most three point attempts,
Speaker 1: but they also gave up the worst three point percentage.
Speaker 1: So Spolstra is very smart about leaving guys open, but
Speaker 1: leaving the right eyes open. But the trick is, like
Speaker 1: I just said, I'm not sure Philly has a right
Speaker 1: guy to leave open except for Matisse thybel Right. When
Speaker 1: they're with their best lineups and you have James Harden
Speaker 1: and Joel Embiad and Tyres Maxie and Tobias Harris and
Speaker 1: Danny Green, there's just not a good guy to leave
Speaker 1: open there. So if Miami is gonna give up a
Speaker 1: ton of open threes and a ton of help on defense,
Speaker 1: that specific team is equipped to make them pay. I
Speaker 1: think this is gonna be a team a series that
Speaker 1: gets ugly and is pretty low scoring. I think both
Speaker 1: teams are gonna struggle to some extent scoring in the
Speaker 1: half court. But I think the advanced the I think
Speaker 1: Phillies embead advantage, meaning they have the best opportunity to
Speaker 1: compromise the defense consistently by forcing double teams in conjunction
Speaker 1: with their overall shooting and the fact that Miami's defense
Speaker 1: is set up to give up three point shots. I
Speaker 1: think that gives Philly the advantage in this series, and
Speaker 1: I'm picking them to win in six, possibly a little
Speaker 1: bit earlier. It's just a home court advantage thing that
Speaker 1: throws it off for me going with Philly and six.
Speaker 1: Really quickly, let's talk about Dallas and Phoenix, another series
Speaker 1: where we can't take too much away from the regular season.
Speaker 1: Luca only played in one game against Phoenix, was at home.
Speaker 1: Phoenix dominated. In one they were uh Dallas actually led
Speaker 1: the first three quarters in the Phoenix was unbelievably dominant
Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter. They won the fourth quarter thirty
Speaker 1: five to nineteen. We'll get into that just a second.
Speaker 1: In that game, Luca was nine two for nine from
Speaker 1: three eight assists, with eight turnovers and was a minus
Speaker 1: seven disastrous fourth quarter. We saw some issues with Dallas's
Speaker 1: fourth quarter offense against Utah, it does become predictable. But
Speaker 1: part of the issue there was Rudy Gobert is very,
Speaker 1: very difficult to score against. And for all the things
Speaker 1: we said about Utah's defense, they did lock in and
Speaker 1: get a lot of stops in crunch time, they just
Speaker 1: got themselves killed throughout the rest of the game. Will
Speaker 1: DeAndre Ayton provide the same type of deterrence as Gobert.
Speaker 1: We're gonna see. We're gonna see if he can guard
Speaker 1: Luca out on the perimeter. Another big thing is gonna
Speaker 1: be how how willing is Phoenix to give up switches
Speaker 1: with Chris Paul and Devin looker onto onto Luca, because
Speaker 1: Luca has always had a ton of success against smaller
Speaker 1: players because of his ability to use his body to
Speaker 1: shield guys away from contact. So, to make a long
Speaker 1: story short, I expect Luca and Dallas to have a
Speaker 1: good amount of success against Phoenix's defense. Lucas too smart
Speaker 1: and there are matchups to attack. Phoenix does run a
Speaker 1: pretty traditional defensive scheme. Luca, I think, is going to
Speaker 1: feast on that in a lot of settings. So much
Speaker 1: of it is going to come down to how often
Speaker 1: can he get Chris Paul and Devin Booker in single coverage.
Speaker 1: Moving on to Phoenix on offense, this is where Chris
Speaker 1: Paul becomes so devastating. We talked a lot about how
Speaker 1: dallas defense is excellent. They make up for a lack
Speaker 1: of defensive personnel with absurd effort and an excellent scheme.
Speaker 1: But there's a little a good amount of gimmickiness to that, right,
Speaker 1: There's there are a lot of options on the floor
Speaker 1: to attack. Chris Paul is going to find a way
Speaker 1: to to put Dallas in some predicaments defense Civilly, They're
Speaker 1: gonna want to switch a lot of the screening role actions.
Speaker 1: But again, do you like Maxine kleiva In in a
Speaker 1: matchup against Chris Paul in isolation on the perimeter? Do
Speaker 1: you like Chris Paul in isolation? Again? Do you like
Speaker 1: Luca don Chitch and isolation against Chris Paul and the perimeter? Like,
Speaker 1: I don't think Phoenix is gonna have any issues scoring.
Speaker 1: And then a huge issue, especially when we're talking about
Speaker 1: switching against Utah, Dallas could get away with switching smaller
Speaker 1: defenders onto Gobert because Gobert is like one of the
Speaker 1: worst matchup attacking bigs in the entire league. We've talked
Speaker 1: a lot about it this season. I think he only
Speaker 1: had ten made field goals in the entire regular season
Speaker 1: against switches. It might even have been worse than that.
Speaker 1: I can't remember. I just vaguely remember seeing that stat
Speaker 1: somewhere on Twitter. But DeAndre Ayten significantly better. Kind of
Speaker 1: a monster attacking switches. When Chris Paul pulls the big
Speaker 1: away and the guard gets switched on to Aton, Chris
Speaker 1: Paul is relentless on hitting Aton, and Aton just goes
Speaker 1: to that quick, little, you know, a half hook that
Speaker 1: he hits in the lane, and he hits it all
Speaker 1: the time. He's got one of the best hook shots
Speaker 1: in all of basketball right now. So that's gonna put
Speaker 1: them in a bunch of predicaments. And then lastly, uh
Speaker 1: Dallas really struggled guarding Boyan Bogdanovitch. We talked a lot
Speaker 1: about this on the show, that big rim, pressuring wing,
Speaker 1: especially against switching defenses, can just get great looks all
Speaker 1: over the floor. Well, Devin Booker is not as big
Speaker 1: as boy On Bogdanovich, but he is similar in the
Speaker 1: way that he can attack shorter mismatches. There will be
Speaker 1: spots on the guys on the floor for Dallas, like
Speaker 1: guys like Reggie Bullock, guys like you know, uh, Jalen Brunson.
Speaker 1: There are gonna be a lot of guys that Spencer Dinwood,
Speaker 1: He's another one. They're gonna be a lot of guys
Speaker 1: out there that Devin Booker is gonna feel comfortable attacking
Speaker 1: in isolation, kind of similar to the way Bogdanovich did,
Speaker 1: and he's gonna get a lot of good looks. I
Speaker 1: this is another one where my head is telling me
Speaker 1: Phoenix is gonna dominate. My head is telling me sweep
Speaker 1: or five games that Phoenix is gonna win. But I
Speaker 1: have too much respect for Luca. I think he's a
Speaker 1: top tier superstar. I just have a feeling he's gonna
Speaker 1: find a way to drag this series out. So I'm
Speaker 1: going Phoenix in six. All right, guys, That is all
Speaker 1: I have for today. I sincerely appreciate your guys support.
Speaker 1: We will be back for a live show tomorrow right
Speaker 1: after there's Bucks Celtics at ten am Pacific standard time,
Speaker 1: Warriors Grizzlies at twelve thirty Pacific Standard time. We'll be
Speaker 1: going live right after the Grizzlies Warriors game. We'll be
Speaker 1: doing live shows on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday this weekend.
Speaker 1: Then there are no games on Thursday, so be prepared
Speaker 1: for live shows the next four days. As always, I
Speaker 1: appreciate your guys support and I will see you tomorrow.
Speaker 1: The Volume