1 00:00:01,200 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: The volume Lakers Tonight is presented by FanDuel Sports Book. 2 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:10,639 Speaker 1: There's no better place to make every moment more than 3 00:00:10,720 --> 00:00:12,880 Speaker 1: with FanDuel. You get great odds in markets for the 4 00:00:13,000 --> 00:00:15,960 Speaker 1: NBA and a gel college and so much more. It's 5 00:00:16,000 --> 00:00:18,720 Speaker 1: America's number one sports book. It's super easy to use. 6 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:21,680 Speaker 1: Plus you can combine multiple bets from the same game 7 00:00:21,880 --> 00:00:24,680 Speaker 1: into a same game parlay. If you are new, just 8 00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 1: download the FanDuel Sports Book app to get started. Now 9 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 1: sign up with promo co Jason T so they know 10 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:35,159 Speaker 1: I sent you. Twenty one plus in president Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, Louisiana, 11 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:39,680 Speaker 1: Permitted parishes only, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Tennessee, Virginia 12 00:00:39,760 --> 00:00:43,280 Speaker 1: or West Virginia. First online real money wager only. Refund 13 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:47,320 Speaker 1: issued as non withdrawalable site credit that expires in fourteen days. 14 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:51,480 Speaker 1: Restrictions apply see terms at sports book dot FanDuel dot com. 15 00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:55,280 Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred, next step or text 16 00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:59,640 Speaker 1: next step to five three three four two in Arizona 17 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:03,640 Speaker 1: one eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven 18 00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:08,679 Speaker 1: seven or visit CCPG dot org slash chat in Connecticut 19 00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:12,160 Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com slash 20 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:17,080 Speaker 1: RG in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, in Virginia one eight 21 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:21,800 Speaker 1: seven seven seven seven zero stop in Louisiana one eight 22 00:01:21,880 --> 00:01:26,080 Speaker 1: hundred to seven zero seven one one seven for confidential 23 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:30,280 Speaker 1: help in Michigan one eight seven seven eight hope and 24 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:34,319 Speaker 1: why or text hope and Why to four six seven 25 00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:38,039 Speaker 1: three six nine in New York. In tennessee redline dial 26 00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:42,040 Speaker 1: one eight hundred eight eight nine nine seven eight nine 27 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:46,400 Speaker 1: in Tennessee visit www one dot one eight hundred gambler 28 00:01:46,440 --> 00:02:05,080 Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia. All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight, 29 00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:08,200 Speaker 1: presented by Vandel here at the volume. Happy Saturday, everybody. 30 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 1: I hope all of you are having a good weekend 31 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:13,160 Speaker 1: so far. I wanted to take a little bit of 32 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:18,119 Speaker 1: time today to preview the second round because, like I said, 33 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:19,960 Speaker 1: at the beginning of this playoff run, I thought this 34 00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:22,800 Speaker 1: was gonna be one of the most exciting playoff runs 35 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:25,120 Speaker 1: that we've seen in recent NBA history, with all the 36 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:28,040 Speaker 1: talent and all the good teams, and we have at 37 00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 1: least three incredible matchups. Miami Philly is a little weird 38 00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:35,320 Speaker 1: because Miami is kind of the strange outlier team that 39 00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 1: doesn't have the level of star power that the other 40 00:02:37,760 --> 00:02:41,799 Speaker 1: teams have, and Philly's dealing with this Joel Embiid injury thing, 41 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:45,480 Speaker 1: but even that series has quite a bit of intrigue. 42 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:49,640 Speaker 1: We're going to start with Boston and Milwaukee, which is 43 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:54,160 Speaker 1: a playoff series that I'm about as excited for as 44 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:56,600 Speaker 1: I've ever been for a playoff series, kind of similar 45 00:02:56,960 --> 00:03:00,160 Speaker 1: to that Brooklyn Nets series. It's this concept of the 46 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:03,280 Speaker 1: team that is achieving something that I haven't seen a 47 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:06,840 Speaker 1: team achieve in a very long time, versus you know, 48 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:09,480 Speaker 1: in the last round KD a player I thought was 49 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:11,400 Speaker 1: the best player in the world at the time although 50 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:15,040 Speaker 1: no longer, and a guy in Janice who is absolutely 51 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:19,160 Speaker 1: on equivocally the best player left in this playoff front. 52 00:03:19,200 --> 00:03:22,160 Speaker 1: So it's kind of like the the the age old 53 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:25,400 Speaker 1: concept of the best player on the floor versus the 54 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:27,560 Speaker 1: best team and which is going to win. We've had 55 00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:30,480 Speaker 1: a lot of conversations over the course of this season, 56 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:33,880 Speaker 1: pretty much ever since that Son's playoff series with the 57 00:03:33,960 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 1: Lakers last year on our show, where I've been very 58 00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:41,920 Speaker 1: very interested to see with the direction the league is going, 59 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:46,040 Speaker 1: how how valuable having the best player on the floor 60 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 1: is now compared to the way it was ten years ago, 61 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 1: with the way teams can double and recover and how 62 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:53,520 Speaker 1: important it is to have guys off the ball that 63 00:03:53,560 --> 00:03:56,840 Speaker 1: can make plays off the dribble, and Milwaukee in particular 64 00:03:57,080 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 1: is kind of set up in a very traditional sense. 65 00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 1: They defended a trade sational sense. On the offensive end, 66 00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:03,640 Speaker 1: they have a lot of guys that are spot up guys, 67 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 1: not necessarily like close out attacker, higher end offensive talent 68 00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:10,200 Speaker 1: type of guys like Boston has. So it's a super 69 00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:14,560 Speaker 1: super interesting dynamic going against Boston, which is, as I 70 00:04:14,600 --> 00:04:16,680 Speaker 1: have said on this show so many times, I think, 71 00:04:16,760 --> 00:04:20,119 Speaker 1: is a very very modern, almost ahead of its time 72 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:24,239 Speaker 1: type of team construct. So just an unbelievably interesting matchup. 73 00:04:24,279 --> 00:04:26,720 Speaker 1: So the regular season series between these two teams is 74 00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:30,240 Speaker 1: completely worthless. They played three of their games back in 75 00:04:31,120 --> 00:04:34,800 Speaker 1: one and then the fourth matchup between the these two 76 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:37,159 Speaker 1: teams took place right for the end of the season 77 00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:39,919 Speaker 1: in a game where both teams sat out a bunch 78 00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:41,800 Speaker 1: of important players. So not a whole lot you can 79 00:04:41,880 --> 00:04:46,000 Speaker 1: take from the season series. However, in fifty six minutes 80 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:49,640 Speaker 1: this year, when both Tatum and Janice were on the floor, 81 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:53,840 Speaker 1: meaning Boston and Milwaukee with their best players playing. Boston 82 00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:56,800 Speaker 1: was plus seventeen, but again, can't take too much from that. 83 00:04:56,920 --> 00:04:59,320 Speaker 1: A lot of those minutes, all of those minutes actually 84 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:02,360 Speaker 1: took place literally in a different calendar year, so it's 85 00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:04,240 Speaker 1: hard to take too much away from that. I want 86 00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:07,400 Speaker 1: to start with Milwaukee on offense. So guarding Janice, We've 87 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:08,960 Speaker 1: talked a lot about this on the show. I won't 88 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:11,839 Speaker 1: go too deep into it today, but the gist of 89 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:14,640 Speaker 1: it is, I expect your honest to have a great 90 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:20,320 Speaker 1: deal of success in his supplementary offense offensive rebounding, particularly 91 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:22,960 Speaker 1: on his own misses, but just him bulldozing around the 92 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:24,960 Speaker 1: rim and being just bigger and stronger than everybody and 93 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:27,599 Speaker 1: grabbing offensive rebounds and put backs. The reason why is, 94 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:30,960 Speaker 1: you know, specifically, when it comes to offensive rebounding, it's 95 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:34,360 Speaker 1: not so much about manpower as it is about one 96 00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:38,000 Speaker 1: single person being unboxed outable, you know what I mean. So, like, 97 00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:40,320 Speaker 1: there could be three Celtics around the rim with Janice, 98 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:42,479 Speaker 1: and he's just too big and strong and athletic, and 99 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:44,000 Speaker 1: he'll get them all, you know what I mean. So 100 00:05:44,440 --> 00:05:46,480 Speaker 1: I think he'll have a lot of supplementary offense that 101 00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:49,359 Speaker 1: will lead to better counting stats. I think janice Is 102 00:05:49,640 --> 00:05:55,880 Speaker 1: statistical series will appear much better than Kevin Durant's statistical series. However, 103 00:05:56,120 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 1: I expect Boston to give your honest problems in every 104 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:02,600 Speaker 1: a lot of the same ways that Kevin Durant had 105 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 1: problems getting to his spots and catching the ball. Boston 106 00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:09,280 Speaker 1: did a really good job with Katie of disrupting Katie 107 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:11,760 Speaker 1: on post entries. They had a ton of turnovers on 108 00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:15,039 Speaker 1: post entries because they would have basically Tatum gamble to 109 00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:17,159 Speaker 1: one side on the post entry and they'd send help 110 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:19,400 Speaker 1: on the other side. And even when he did catch, 111 00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:22,000 Speaker 1: Katie would quick turn and there'd be people diving at 112 00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 1: the ball. So they made it complicated to get Katie 113 00:06:24,680 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 1: the basketball. And then they did a really good job 114 00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:31,200 Speaker 1: of testing Katie's handle, very aggressive with length being like 115 00:06:31,400 --> 00:06:34,880 Speaker 1: lots of reaching and testing Katie's ability to handle the basketball. 116 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 1: And Katie and Janice are good ball handlers, but they're tall, 117 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:41,080 Speaker 1: and that causes issues when you have guys reaching in 118 00:06:41,120 --> 00:06:43,520 Speaker 1: because there's just so much more distance that the ball 119 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:47,520 Speaker 1: has to travel. So specifically with Joannice, I expect him 120 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:49,640 Speaker 1: to have a lot of similar issues to Katie turning 121 00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:52,960 Speaker 1: the basketball over, struggling with handling a ton of traffic, 122 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:55,520 Speaker 1: passing out of double teams, and things like that. I 123 00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:59,279 Speaker 1: expect your honest to struggle there. But with his supplementary offense, 124 00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:02,039 Speaker 1: with his fensive rebound and transition, there will be a 125 00:07:02,080 --> 00:07:04,680 Speaker 1: half dozen possessions every game where just because of the 126 00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:08,120 Speaker 1: way that a Celtic misses a shot. Janice will have 127 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:09,480 Speaker 1: a head of steam and no one will be able 128 00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 1: to stop him, and you'll get layups and dunks and 129 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 1: free throws and stuff out of that. So Janna will 130 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:16,440 Speaker 1: have a statistically successful sees series, but I expect him 131 00:07:16,480 --> 00:07:19,640 Speaker 1: to struggle overall. The other thing that's interesting with Milwaukee 132 00:07:19,640 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 1: on offense is this news with Chris Middleton. So Sham's 133 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:25,160 Speaker 1: or any reported I believe two days ago that Chris 134 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:27,800 Speaker 1: Middleton will be out for the entire series and potentially 135 00:07:27,840 --> 00:07:30,800 Speaker 1: even the Eastern Conference Finals should the Bucks make it 136 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:34,280 Speaker 1: to that point. This is why that's important. Boston is 137 00:07:34,320 --> 00:07:37,600 Speaker 1: a pure switch everything team, especially with Rob Williams in 138 00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:39,720 Speaker 1: the lineup. They really only run drop when daniel Tys 139 00:07:39,840 --> 00:07:41,640 Speaker 1: is out there because they don't want to get daniel 140 00:07:41,640 --> 00:07:44,720 Speaker 1: Tye into switches. Right, So it's gonna be a switch 141 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:48,520 Speaker 1: everything team, and that inherently turns you into a matchup 142 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:51,760 Speaker 1: attacking team. So we know Janice can attack matchups, but 143 00:07:51,800 --> 00:07:54,360 Speaker 1: we just discussed all the ways that Boston's gonna try 144 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:57,360 Speaker 1: to disrupt that. So that leaves it to Drew Holiday 145 00:07:57,400 --> 00:08:00,360 Speaker 1: as your other guy who can attack matchups. The probable 146 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:02,640 Speaker 1: there is. This is where the lack of Chris Middleton 147 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:06,520 Speaker 1: is an issue, because Chris Middleton last year was an 148 00:08:06,560 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 1: excellent option for Milwaukee to go to two attack matchups, 149 00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:13,040 Speaker 1: especially as a three level score who's six ft eight 150 00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:15,280 Speaker 1: and can you know, hit back to the basket shots 151 00:08:15,280 --> 00:08:16,920 Speaker 1: out of the post, and hit off the dribble shots 152 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:18,520 Speaker 1: from the perimeter and can get to the rim and 153 00:08:18,560 --> 00:08:21,400 Speaker 1: all of those things, right, So having Chris Middleton out 154 00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 1: there is a significant loss when you're attacking a switching defense. 155 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:27,720 Speaker 1: Not that it might it might not have mattered anyway. 156 00:08:27,760 --> 00:08:29,360 Speaker 1: You guys know how high I am on Boston. I 157 00:08:29,360 --> 00:08:31,880 Speaker 1: probably would have picked Boston to win this series regardless, 158 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:35,400 Speaker 1: but with Chris Middleton out it makes it significantly tougher 159 00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:38,679 Speaker 1: Milwaukee on defense. I wanted to just kind of give 160 00:08:38,720 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 1: you guys a couple of of really really basic stats 161 00:08:42,640 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 1: to demonstrate just how how dominant this Boston team has been. 162 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:50,200 Speaker 1: You know there we talked about this in a pod 163 00:08:50,320 --> 00:08:52,480 Speaker 1: last week, But I don't know if it's the anti 164 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:55,520 Speaker 1: Celtics bias, uh that you know, kind of similar to 165 00:08:55,559 --> 00:08:58,200 Speaker 1: the anti Lakers bias, which is just natural in the NBA. 166 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 1: Fan base are the two most successful fan aces, and 167 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:03,640 Speaker 1: they're the two loudest fan bases, which kind of inherently 168 00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:07,920 Speaker 1: makes them unlikable to everybody. But the thing is is 169 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:12,840 Speaker 1: that has poisoned people's minds into thinking that the sweep 170 00:09:12,880 --> 00:09:17,520 Speaker 1: of the Brooklyn Nets was about Brooklyn being terrible more 171 00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:21,000 Speaker 1: so than Boston being great, when the reality is since January, 172 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 1: when all of this took out for took off for Boston, 173 00:09:24,160 --> 00:09:27,920 Speaker 1: Boston is thirty two and seven. Since January, they have 174 00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:30,280 Speaker 1: the best offense in the league, the best defense in 175 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:33,360 Speaker 1: the league. They're five points per Hunter possessions better than everybody. 176 00:09:33,400 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 1: On defense, They're seven and a half points better overall 177 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:39,199 Speaker 1: per one Hunter possessions than everybody in the league. So 178 00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:43,080 Speaker 1: they're they've been unbelievably dominant. So it's poisoning people's minds 179 00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:45,719 Speaker 1: in making them think that you know the first round 180 00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:48,840 Speaker 1: series was a fluke based on matchups in Katie and Kyrie, 181 00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:51,320 Speaker 1: you know, pissing down their leg, And that's not what happened. 182 00:09:51,320 --> 00:09:55,440 Speaker 1: They ran into the best team in the NBA. So 183 00:09:55,480 --> 00:09:57,439 Speaker 1: why do I bring that up right now because we're 184 00:09:57,480 --> 00:10:01,440 Speaker 1: talking about Boston on off it's against Milwaukee, and I 185 00:10:01,520 --> 00:10:04,600 Speaker 1: bet you if you asked the vast majority of casual fans, 186 00:10:04,640 --> 00:10:07,200 Speaker 1: they would think of Boston is not a very good offense. 187 00:10:07,240 --> 00:10:10,120 Speaker 1: But again, and this is the important detail, where you're 188 00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:13,280 Speaker 1: in a thirty nine game stretch here, where they've been 189 00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:17,240 Speaker 1: the best offense in all of basketball. Just in this 190 00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:20,559 Speaker 1: postseason run, Boston has the best half court offense and 191 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:23,240 Speaker 1: the best transition offense. According to Cleaning the Glass, this 192 00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:28,720 Speaker 1: is an unbelievably good offensive team. And specifically with Milwaukee, 193 00:10:28,760 --> 00:10:32,400 Speaker 1: we've talked about how Milwaukee struggles because their defense is 194 00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:34,400 Speaker 1: set up to take away the paint, so they attack 195 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:39,000 Speaker 1: specific matchups. Teams like Chicago that kind of live inside 196 00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:41,720 Speaker 1: the three point line, they're gonna have a lot of success. 197 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:45,080 Speaker 1: But against teams that generate quality three point shots and 198 00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:48,400 Speaker 1: can knock them down, they struggle. Again, this is important 199 00:10:48,400 --> 00:10:52,720 Speaker 1: to understand Milwaukee's defense this season was average on a 200 00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:56,720 Speaker 1: point per one hundred possessions allowed basis despite the fact 201 00:10:56,760 --> 00:10:59,240 Speaker 1: that they were dominant and shutting off the paint and 202 00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:02,920 Speaker 1: dominant on the defensive glass, it was strictly because their 203 00:11:02,920 --> 00:11:05,640 Speaker 1: defense would over help and give up a ton of threes. 204 00:11:05,960 --> 00:11:07,880 Speaker 1: On the back end, they were not good at rotating 205 00:11:07,920 --> 00:11:10,920 Speaker 1: around two shooters. One last stat I'm gonna give you 206 00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:13,360 Speaker 1: on this to kind of seal the deal here. Since 207 00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:18,120 Speaker 1: January this stretch with Boston, Boston is fifth in three 208 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:21,200 Speaker 1: point volume, so in total three point attempts per game 209 00:11:21,280 --> 00:11:23,959 Speaker 1: compared to their the rest of the league in third 210 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:27,440 Speaker 1: in three point percentage. So this is the opposite of 211 00:11:27,440 --> 00:11:29,920 Speaker 1: the Chicago situation. This is a team that is great 212 00:11:29,960 --> 00:11:34,040 Speaker 1: at generating wide open threes and great at knocking them down. 213 00:11:35,040 --> 00:11:37,800 Speaker 1: So even if we throw away everything that I've loved 214 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:40,680 Speaker 1: about this Boston team on the defensive end, which is 215 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:44,080 Speaker 1: where I derived my confidence in this matchup, it's the 216 00:11:44,120 --> 00:11:45,880 Speaker 1: other end of the floor of Boston has an advantage 217 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:50,160 Speaker 1: as well against the very specific Milwaukee weakness, and so 218 00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:53,199 Speaker 1: in this case, I'm picking Boston in five. I think 219 00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:56,160 Speaker 1: Milwaukee will get one game on their home floor. Game 220 00:11:56,200 --> 00:11:58,480 Speaker 1: three or Game four, we'll see, but I expect this 221 00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:01,560 Speaker 1: to be a dominant Boston Celtics victory. I expect Janice 222 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:06,920 Speaker 1: to struggle despite having better counting stats than k D. 223 00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:09,760 Speaker 1: And you just need to keep it simple, guys. Since 224 00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:12,319 Speaker 1: January twenty three, Boston is the best team in the league, 225 00:12:12,400 --> 00:12:15,599 Speaker 1: best on offense, best on defense. They demonstrated in the 226 00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 1: first round against Brooklyn that they're one of the best 227 00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:22,280 Speaker 1: defensive teams that we have ever seen. Milwaukee is missing 228 00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:25,079 Speaker 1: their second most important player and arguably one of the 229 00:12:25,160 --> 00:12:29,080 Speaker 1: most important matchup attackers in Chris Middleton. So just simply 230 00:12:29,160 --> 00:12:31,760 Speaker 1: on the surface, we know that Boston is a better 231 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:35,720 Speaker 1: basketball team at a health advantage in this series. To 232 00:12:35,760 --> 00:12:38,040 Speaker 1: be clear, this is how much I think Boston is 233 00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:41,599 Speaker 1: a favorite. If Milwaukee were to win this series, it 234 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:44,600 Speaker 1: would be an accomplishment for Joannice on part with like 235 00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:48,480 Speaker 1: two thousand seven Lebron knocking out the Pistons. It would 236 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:51,320 Speaker 1: be one of the greatest accomplishments not associated with an 237 00:12:51,360 --> 00:12:54,880 Speaker 1: NBA title in NBA history. That's how confident I am 238 00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:57,840 Speaker 1: in Boston. That's the challenge that's in front of Janice. 239 00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:00,560 Speaker 1: If he can pull it off. I have nothing but 240 00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:03,080 Speaker 1: props for the guy, but that's the type of of 241 00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:05,800 Speaker 1: situation that he's facing here. This is an all time 242 00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:08,960 Speaker 1: great defense in a Boston Celtics team that has been 243 00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:12,040 Speaker 1: clearly better than everybody else, and Nice is without his 244 00:13:12,120 --> 00:13:15,400 Speaker 1: co star. It's gonna be tough. He's capable of it. 245 00:13:15,600 --> 00:13:19,000 Speaker 1: Definitely give Milwaukee a chance, but I'm picking Boston in five. 246 00:13:19,440 --> 00:13:21,320 Speaker 1: All right, Let's move on to Golden State Memphis. This 247 00:13:21,400 --> 00:13:24,440 Speaker 1: is I think the second most interesting series in the 248 00:13:24,480 --> 00:13:27,079 Speaker 1: first round. Another series where the regular season it's tough 249 00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:30,000 Speaker 1: to take things from because especially that they had matchups 250 00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 1: very early in the season where they were healthy. But 251 00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:35,440 Speaker 1: you know, Memphis wasn't as dominant back then as they 252 00:13:35,480 --> 00:13:37,040 Speaker 1: are now. And then as we get closer to the 253 00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:39,520 Speaker 1: end of the season, you've got a game where Draymond 254 00:13:39,520 --> 00:13:42,079 Speaker 1: Green was not playing, and then you have a game 255 00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:44,920 Speaker 1: where Steph Curry and Draymond Green did not play. So again, 256 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:48,040 Speaker 1: these regular season series is make it extremely difficult to 257 00:13:48,080 --> 00:13:50,320 Speaker 1: predict because guys are just missing games, which is a 258 00:13:50,360 --> 00:13:53,000 Speaker 1: whole other conversation we need to have about the NBA 259 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:55,760 Speaker 1: and Stars missing games. But let's do our best to 260 00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:58,360 Speaker 1: try to get as close of an indication of what 261 00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:00,520 Speaker 1: we think these teams are gonna do based on what 262 00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:02,320 Speaker 1: we did see this year. So again, like I did 263 00:14:02,559 --> 00:14:06,760 Speaker 1: with the Celtics Buck Series, there were ninety four minutes 264 00:14:06,760 --> 00:14:09,880 Speaker 1: this year where the Warriors and the Grizzlies played each 265 00:14:09,880 --> 00:14:12,640 Speaker 1: other and Steph and Jaw were both on the floor together. 266 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:16,360 Speaker 1: In those minutes, the Warriors were plus twenty four in 267 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:19,960 Speaker 1: ninety four minutes. Excellent on the defensive end, pretty good 268 00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:23,360 Speaker 1: on the offensive ent, uh in those in those specific 269 00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:27,320 Speaker 1: matchups between with the Warriors, John Morantz drives, according to 270 00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 1: the NBA's tracking data, were slightly down over his regular 271 00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:34,640 Speaker 1: season averages. His restricted area makes were down compared to 272 00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:37,240 Speaker 1: his regular season averages. So a couple of things there 273 00:14:37,280 --> 00:14:40,240 Speaker 1: that are indicative of the fact that Golden State has 274 00:14:40,240 --> 00:14:42,360 Speaker 1: had more success guarding job than the rest of the 275 00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:45,440 Speaker 1: league has. However, it gets complicated because that's kind of 276 00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 1: a team effort thing, and that can get a little 277 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:49,520 Speaker 1: bit uh. That can get a little tricky in the 278 00:14:49,560 --> 00:14:51,720 Speaker 1: playoffs when coaches have more time to scout and there 279 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:54,280 Speaker 1: are perimeter defenders for Golden State that are gonna struggle 280 00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:57,160 Speaker 1: guarding job. So let's start with Memphis on offense for 281 00:14:57,200 --> 00:15:00,800 Speaker 1: that reason, So a couple of things containing Jaw is 282 00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:02,960 Speaker 1: gonna be the biggest predicament of the series we talk 283 00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:07,640 Speaker 1: about With Memphis, their biggest issue is they don't have 284 00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:11,000 Speaker 1: half court creators outside of Jaw. Jaren Jackson Jr. Is 285 00:15:11,200 --> 00:15:13,720 Speaker 1: a can attack matchups, but he struggles in traffic because 286 00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:15,960 Speaker 1: he doesn't see the floor well. Desmond Bayane is more 287 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:18,359 Speaker 1: of a slasher guy who can attack off of advantages. 288 00:15:18,400 --> 00:15:21,120 Speaker 1: He's not a guy that's fantastic at creating his own 289 00:15:21,120 --> 00:15:24,160 Speaker 1: shot or creating shots for other people. So Golden State 290 00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:26,000 Speaker 1: will be able to key in on Jaw. The trick 291 00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:29,040 Speaker 1: is a lot of Golden State lineups, namely even the 292 00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:32,560 Speaker 1: Death lineup, the Death Lineup Number three or whatever it is. 293 00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:35,280 Speaker 1: With Jordan Pool, Clay Thompson and Steph Curry in the backcourt, 294 00:15:35,760 --> 00:15:38,800 Speaker 1: none of those three guys can keep John Moran in front, 295 00:15:39,160 --> 00:15:42,000 Speaker 1: and so there will be potential for Memphis to play 296 00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:44,640 Speaker 1: Golden State out of some of their favorite lineups, and 297 00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:46,960 Speaker 1: as a result of that, it may put them in 298 00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:49,200 Speaker 1: a predicament where they have to go with Gary Payton Jr. 299 00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:51,720 Speaker 1: A lot more. Gary Payton Jr. Played amazingly well in 300 00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:54,440 Speaker 1: Game five against Denver, but he's not the same level 301 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:56,760 Speaker 1: of offensive player as a Jordan Pool or as a 302 00:15:56,800 --> 00:15:59,800 Speaker 1: Clay Thompson. So those are those trade offs you get. 303 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:02,040 Speaker 1: I like Gary Payton Jr. To have a better chance 304 00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:04,520 Speaker 1: of containing John Morant, But the flip side is is 305 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:07,360 Speaker 1: you suffer some losses on the offensive end of the floor. 306 00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:10,280 Speaker 1: That will be tricky. However, Golden State I do think 307 00:16:10,280 --> 00:16:13,800 Speaker 1: will have more capability to help and rotate out of that, 308 00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:16,520 Speaker 1: especially with Draymond on the back line. Where I get 309 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:19,920 Speaker 1: most concerned for UH, for Golden State in this series 310 00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:25,240 Speaker 1: is Memphis attacking the offensive glass. So uh in half 311 00:16:25,240 --> 00:16:28,320 Speaker 1: court settings this season, So just in the half court 312 00:16:28,400 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 1: this season, Memphis rebounded a third of their own misses. Literally, 313 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:36,520 Speaker 1: They're the best offensive rebounding team in the league. We 314 00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:39,640 Speaker 1: talked a lot about how they stole games from Minnesota 315 00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:42,440 Speaker 1: in the first round, particularly Brandon Clark, but they stole 316 00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:45,400 Speaker 1: games from Memphis from Minnesota in the first round just 317 00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:50,200 Speaker 1: by crashing the offensive glass. We specifically saw Denver give 318 00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:53,480 Speaker 1: Golden State a lot of issues attacking the offensive glass. 319 00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:57,120 Speaker 1: Main main reason why this is not a big Warriors team. 320 00:16:57,360 --> 00:17:00,640 Speaker 1: They're only big when they play Kevon Looney next Draymond 321 00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:03,800 Speaker 1: with Andrew Wiggins, and even then they're not huge, They're 322 00:17:03,840 --> 00:17:06,080 Speaker 1: just big enough to hang. And then there comes a 323 00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:09,520 Speaker 1: whole bunch of offensive issues when you go with Kevin Looney. 324 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:11,480 Speaker 1: In that regard as well, there's a trade off, just 325 00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:13,760 Speaker 1: like we were talking about with Gary Payton Jr. So 326 00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:16,560 Speaker 1: their ability to keep Memphis off the glass is gonna 327 00:17:16,600 --> 00:17:19,119 Speaker 1: be an issue just like it was with Denver, and 328 00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:21,680 Speaker 1: it's going to give Memphis a lot of extra possessions 329 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:23,280 Speaker 1: and that could be an issue. And then lastly, with 330 00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 1: Memphis on offense, I worry with Dre Draymond Green with 331 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:29,720 Speaker 1: fatigue and foul trouble, so kind of like we saw 332 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:32,040 Speaker 1: in Game five against Denver and just in general, over 333 00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:34,040 Speaker 1: the course of that series, Draymond started to wear down, 334 00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:36,840 Speaker 1: not because he's not capable, but because there's so little 335 00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:39,560 Speaker 1: depth in the front court for Golden State. Was a 336 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:41,439 Speaker 1: need they never addressed this season. I don't know if 337 00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:43,919 Speaker 1: they just thought James Wiseman was coming back or if 338 00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:46,040 Speaker 1: they just didn't think they'd need it, but they never 339 00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:49,560 Speaker 1: addressed their front court need for depth, and as a result, 340 00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:52,359 Speaker 1: there is a ton on Draymond Green's plate, and so 341 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:54,920 Speaker 1: all it takes is Jah flying into the lane a 342 00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:57,600 Speaker 1: couple of times to start a game, or Jaren Jackson Jr. 343 00:17:57,640 --> 00:18:00,240 Speaker 1: Attacking on you know, quick catching rip thorough moves to 344 00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:02,159 Speaker 1: pick up a couple of quick fouls on Draymond and 345 00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:04,320 Speaker 1: he could be in trouble and then fatigue, like we said, 346 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:06,000 Speaker 1: over the course of the series, could be an issue. 347 00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:08,960 Speaker 1: So front court depth is gonna be the biggest area 348 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:11,760 Speaker 1: where Memphis has an advantage. Wearing down Draymond, getting him 349 00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:14,320 Speaker 1: in foul trouble, and crashing the hell out of the 350 00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:17,280 Speaker 1: offensive glass. It's going to put Golden State in a 351 00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:19,800 Speaker 1: predicament where they have to play bigger players, a lot 352 00:18:19,880 --> 00:18:22,959 Speaker 1: more out of Porter Jr. A lot more Gary Payton Jr. 353 00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 1: As a guy crashing the on the on the wings 354 00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:28,439 Speaker 1: to help defensive rebound. That could then lead to the 355 00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:31,119 Speaker 1: cascading effect of causing Golden State problems on offense. So 356 00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:33,439 Speaker 1: that's gonna be the tricky part. Now, moving to Golden 357 00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:36,399 Speaker 1: State on offense. First of all, this is where I 358 00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:39,560 Speaker 1: think Golden State has their best advantage. During the regular season, 359 00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:41,720 Speaker 1: Memphis was a better half court offense team according to 360 00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:44,000 Speaker 1: cleaning the glass. But obviously the postseason and the regular 361 00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:47,080 Speaker 1: season are two completely different things. And you saw Minnesota 362 00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:50,960 Speaker 1: give Memphis a ton of issues with their drible containment, 363 00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:53,199 Speaker 1: which was their best gill during the regular season, and 364 00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:56,120 Speaker 1: it gave Memphis issues in the half court. During just 365 00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:59,399 Speaker 1: this postseason, the Warriors are averaging a hundred and twenty 366 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:03,159 Speaker 1: three point four points per half court possession, which is 367 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:06,040 Speaker 1: ten and a half points better than Memphis managed in 368 00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:08,520 Speaker 1: the first round against Minnesota. Minnesota is a better defense 369 00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:11,480 Speaker 1: than Denver, so there's some context there. But I do 370 00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:15,320 Speaker 1: trust the Golden State's decision making in the half court 371 00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:18,800 Speaker 1: more than I trust Memphis decision making in the half court. 372 00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:20,640 Speaker 1: And this kind of takes me to that Minnesota series, 373 00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:23,800 Speaker 1: which I thought was a really really strange series because 374 00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:26,359 Speaker 1: in six games and we picked Memphis and six we 375 00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:28,480 Speaker 1: got I think we got six of the eight first 376 00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:31,320 Speaker 1: round series is correct. We were wrong about Brooklyn and 377 00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:34,199 Speaker 1: we were wrong about Filling, but that was one of 378 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:37,240 Speaker 1: the series we were right about. However, the tricky thing 379 00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:41,400 Speaker 1: was is in the six games, Minnesota had controlling leads 380 00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:46,320 Speaker 1: second half, like significant advantages in the second half. In 381 00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:48,960 Speaker 1: five of the six games. So there's a bunch of 382 00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:50,639 Speaker 1: different ways to look at that. Some of that is 383 00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:53,760 Speaker 1: the game getting helter skelter and transition in Minnesota having 384 00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:56,040 Speaker 1: guys that aren't great at closing games, which we talked about. 385 00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:57,960 Speaker 1: But part of it is, and this is something I 386 00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:01,080 Speaker 1: pointed out on the show, Memphis fly out came out 387 00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:05,960 Speaker 1: flat like four or five times in that series. That 388 00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 1: is a weird thing for a team that has expectations 389 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:11,800 Speaker 1: and hasn't been to the mountaintop before. And part of 390 00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:13,679 Speaker 1: this is, like, like we always talked about, you have 391 00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:17,600 Speaker 1: to build up scar tissue over the years of having 392 00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:21,840 Speaker 1: hard losses and pain and heartbreak that caused you to 393 00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:25,280 Speaker 1: fear losing so much that you don't come out flat. 394 00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:28,040 Speaker 1: And Memphis hasn't had that heartache yet. And here's the 395 00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:31,480 Speaker 1: thing against Minnesota, it just falls. It makes you fall 396 00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:34,960 Speaker 1: behind and you can recover. Against a team like Golden State, 397 00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:37,560 Speaker 1: if you come out flat, you'll get beat because you're 398 00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:39,320 Speaker 1: not coming back against them when they get a twenty 399 00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:42,640 Speaker 1: point advantage of against you. They've been there too many times, right, 400 00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:45,000 Speaker 1: They've had too much pain and suffering over the course 401 00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:47,560 Speaker 1: of their decade of basketball. They know what it takes, 402 00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:51,440 Speaker 1: so a lot of Memphis is sloppiness and general just 403 00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:54,280 Speaker 1: like youth, is going to be something that I think 404 00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:57,560 Speaker 1: is going to cause them problems in this series. Another 405 00:20:57,600 --> 00:20:59,480 Speaker 1: thing is I'm gonna be really curious to see how, 406 00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:03,960 Speaker 1: specifically how Steve Kerr finds ways to attack John Moran, 407 00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:07,639 Speaker 1: because Golden State is not a dribbled drive team really 408 00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:11,000 Speaker 1: that much. Stephan Clay do drive to the basket off 409 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:14,600 Speaker 1: of attention from their three point shooting, but every team 410 00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:16,200 Speaker 1: in the league kind of gives up those types of 411 00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:18,200 Speaker 1: drives because they're pressing up on the shot. I'm really 412 00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:21,199 Speaker 1: curious to see if Jordan's Pool, in particular, because he 413 00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:25,359 Speaker 1: is their best burst guard, He's their best quick, first step, 414 00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:27,760 Speaker 1: beat people to the basket type of guard. How much 415 00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:31,280 Speaker 1: they can use Jordan Pool to attack John Moran. How 416 00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:34,880 Speaker 1: willing is Memphis to give up switches to put John 417 00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:38,760 Speaker 1: Moran specifically on Jordan Pool even further? Can Golden State 418 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:41,480 Speaker 1: play Jordan Pool enough? They had to bench him in 419 00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:43,600 Speaker 1: the fourth quarter of that game five against Denver because 420 00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:45,560 Speaker 1: he was struggling defensively, and he was struggling on the 421 00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:48,639 Speaker 1: defensive glass. Well, that could be an issue in this 422 00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:50,720 Speaker 1: series as well. Like we were talking about with trying 423 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 1: to guard jaw so that having Jordan's pool out there 424 00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:56,159 Speaker 1: on the offensive end, a lot of that has to 425 00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:59,359 Speaker 1: do with how well he holds up on the defensive end. Overall, 426 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:03,680 Speaker 1: my my brain and everything that I know about these 427 00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:07,800 Speaker 1: teams tells me that Golden State should win and win easy, 428 00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:11,520 Speaker 1: that they should win in five games. But I think 429 00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 1: in general, the length and athleticism and size of Memphis, 430 00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:17,679 Speaker 1: in conjunction with the pace that they play at, in 431 00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:20,800 Speaker 1: conjunction with the way that they attack the offensive glass, 432 00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:23,320 Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of potential to wear Golden 433 00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:26,680 Speaker 1: State down and drag this series out. And so I'm 434 00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:29,560 Speaker 1: picking Golden State, but I'm picking them in seven. I 435 00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:31,959 Speaker 1: think this is going to be a long series. I 436 00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:35,280 Speaker 1: think physical advantages are gonna keep Memphis in the series, 437 00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:37,399 Speaker 1: as well as home court advantage. But I am going 438 00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:40,480 Speaker 1: to favor the veteran team that is better and better 439 00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:43,320 Speaker 1: with execution in the end. So I'm picking Golden State 440 00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,440 Speaker 1: in seven. All right, We're gonna rip through these last 441 00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:48,199 Speaker 1: two series is pretty quickly. I do find them interesting, 442 00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:50,120 Speaker 1: just less interesting than the first two. So let's start 443 00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:54,320 Speaker 1: with Philly. Miami. Obviously, the mb thing makes it super complicated. 444 00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:57,040 Speaker 1: That was a really strange report yesterday, Like you could 445 00:22:57,080 --> 00:23:00,119 Speaker 1: interpret that as and be it's gonna sit out the 446 00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:02,200 Speaker 1: rest of the playoffs. You could also interpret it as 447 00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:04,280 Speaker 1: he just has a concussion and he could be back 448 00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:06,080 Speaker 1: by Monday. Right, So we don't know what to say. 449 00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:08,080 Speaker 1: So for the sake of here's the thing. If em 450 00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:10,800 Speaker 1: beads out, Miami's winning the series. So we don't even 451 00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:13,440 Speaker 1: have to get into that if Embiad's gonna miss the playoffs. 452 00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:16,400 Speaker 1: But let's quickly break down with the series would look 453 00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:18,919 Speaker 1: like if Emba did play, because that would be the 454 00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:22,159 Speaker 1: only the only scenario in which this series would be 455 00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:25,439 Speaker 1: worth watching and worth breaking down. So let's start with 456 00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:29,720 Speaker 1: Miami and offense specifically. What worries me with this situation 457 00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:32,280 Speaker 1: is and Bead's ability to hang out around the rim. 458 00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:34,480 Speaker 1: Toronto did a really nice job with their five out 459 00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:37,280 Speaker 1: kind of driving kick attack of making him Bead cover 460 00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:39,879 Speaker 1: a lot of ground on the perimeter, but they met 461 00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:42,520 Speaker 1: a bio in the way that he's utilized in their system. 462 00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:44,520 Speaker 1: Hangs out a lot around the high post, kind of 463 00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:46,480 Speaker 1: like Yokis does, does a lot of dribble handoffs and 464 00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:49,879 Speaker 1: ball screens, but he can't shoot. That is going to 465 00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:52,840 Speaker 1: lead to a dynamic where Joel Embiid can camp around 466 00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:55,359 Speaker 1: the basket. That will be the biggest indicator of this 467 00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:58,920 Speaker 1: series in Miami's ability to score. Can they forced Joel 468 00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:00,879 Speaker 1: Embiad to cover ground in the ter So much of 469 00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:03,680 Speaker 1: that will have to do with will Philly's guards and 470 00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:06,040 Speaker 1: wings do a good job of chasing guys over the 471 00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:09,680 Speaker 1: top of all their dribble handoff actions, because if they struggle, 472 00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:13,040 Speaker 1: if Bamadi Bio gets Duncan Robinson and Tyler Harrow and 473 00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:14,960 Speaker 1: all these guys a bunch of and Gay Vincent and 474 00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:18,159 Speaker 1: and Max Sterr's wide open looks flying off of these 475 00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:21,680 Speaker 1: dribble handoffs, then Embeat has to come out to show 476 00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:24,119 Speaker 1: on the dribble handoffs. If Embat has to come out 477 00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:26,520 Speaker 1: and show on the dribble handoffs, now Joe Embiad is 478 00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:29,600 Speaker 1: further away from the basket, which opens up opportunities for 479 00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:32,000 Speaker 1: everybody to get to the rim for Miami. So huge 480 00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:34,680 Speaker 1: part of this specific matchup is going to be how 481 00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:38,600 Speaker 1: successful is Philly at keeping him Beat around the rim. 482 00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:42,560 Speaker 1: A couple other things, Jimmy Butler's health had knee issues. 483 00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:45,000 Speaker 1: He missed Game five of the Atlanta the Atlanta Hawks series. 484 00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:47,960 Speaker 1: How available is he gonna be? How successful is he 485 00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:50,600 Speaker 1: gonna be? That's gonna be the interesting wrinkle. Miami's best 486 00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:54,000 Speaker 1: chance to win this series is if Jimmy Butler is 487 00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:57,200 Speaker 1: healthy and like capable of doing the same types of 488 00:24:57,280 --> 00:24:59,560 Speaker 1: things that he did in the Bubble playoff run when 489 00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:02,240 Speaker 1: he was so dominant. Then, lastly, with Miami on offense, 490 00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:05,879 Speaker 1: how successful will they be attacking James Harden and Tyrese Maxie. 491 00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:09,000 Speaker 1: Philly has great defensive players on a lot of spots 492 00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:11,119 Speaker 1: on the floor. Joel and Beads great defensive player. Tobias 493 00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:15,080 Speaker 1: Harris is very good, you know. Uh, Mattistabel is very good, 494 00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:17,000 Speaker 1: although he has offensive issues that lead him to having 495 00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:20,320 Speaker 1: trouble playing. Danny Green is a pretty dependable defensive player 496 00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:23,640 Speaker 1: in the playoffs. But Tyres Maxie and James Harden, they struggle, 497 00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:26,760 Speaker 1: specifically with the Tyris Maxie kind of reminds me of 498 00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:30,000 Speaker 1: a lot of young defensive guards, Like there are possessions 499 00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:31,680 Speaker 1: where he looks great, but then there are possessions where 500 00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:33,280 Speaker 1: he gets lost. It's kind of part of the deal. 501 00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:35,880 Speaker 1: With being young. And then James Harden just doesn't care 502 00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:38,479 Speaker 1: enough to put in the work and he's not mobile 503 00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:41,239 Speaker 1: enough to contain people on the perimeter. He only does 504 00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:45,440 Speaker 1: well defending post mismatches. So how successful will Miami be 505 00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:48,600 Speaker 1: attacking James Harden Tyris Maxie will go a long way 506 00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:52,840 Speaker 1: towards Miami's ability to score Philly on offense. There there 507 00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:54,880 Speaker 1: are two things specifically that I wanted to look at. Here, 508 00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:58,840 Speaker 1: can Bam at a bio cover Joel embiad in single coverage? 509 00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:01,639 Speaker 1: Because if he can, it diminishes the shot quality for 510 00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:04,680 Speaker 1: everybody else on Philly makes the entire game significantly harder. 511 00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:07,560 Speaker 1: James Harden has less room to operate. Tobias Harris and 512 00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:10,040 Speaker 1: Tyres Maxie don't get as many of the wide open 513 00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:12,600 Speaker 1: opportunities that they get to build their confidence and build 514 00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:14,960 Speaker 1: their rhythm give them the ability to go off in 515 00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:20,400 Speaker 1: more uh contested situations. So BAM's ability to garden bead 516 00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:23,040 Speaker 1: huge swing factor for the series. You'll know pretty quickly 517 00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:25,359 Speaker 1: in Game one if he's up to that challenge. And 518 00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:27,560 Speaker 1: then last, and this is the biggest reason I'm picking 519 00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:29,480 Speaker 1: Philly to win the series. And six, by the way, 520 00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:32,719 Speaker 1: if Joel Embiad is healthy, and the biggest reason why 521 00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:35,679 Speaker 1: I'm going that way is there one There's one area 522 00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:39,320 Speaker 1: in that first round that I vastly underestimated. We talked 523 00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:40,840 Speaker 1: a lot about this in the show that we did 524 00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:43,239 Speaker 1: the other day on on Thursday Night, The Different when 525 00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:45,399 Speaker 1: we were talking about the difference between shooters and makers 526 00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:48,440 Speaker 1: and how confident guys like Tobias Harris and Danny Green 527 00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:51,280 Speaker 1: and Tyres Maxie are when they get open looks because 528 00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:54,640 Speaker 1: they are makers, not shooters. They're very, very good shooters 529 00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:58,160 Speaker 1: that are confident in their shot. Well, I I think 530 00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:03,840 Speaker 1: I've like resoundly underestimated how much shooting Philly has And 531 00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:06,280 Speaker 1: a huge part of what made that Toronto series is 532 00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:09,320 Speaker 1: dominant of a performance as it was for Philly was 533 00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:12,440 Speaker 1: all this attention devoted to Himbiid. The ball would just 534 00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,399 Speaker 1: get swinging around, even if Embid blew the first you know, 535 00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:17,479 Speaker 1: double team read, it would be swinging, swinging, and there 536 00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:20,920 Speaker 1: would be somebody with some type of advantage in Danny 537 00:27:20,960 --> 00:27:23,600 Speaker 1: Green and Tobias Harris and Tyres Maxie are just gonna 538 00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:26,720 Speaker 1: knock down these shots. They were eleven for twenty three 539 00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:29,480 Speaker 1: in Game five or in game six up in Toronto. 540 00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:32,400 Speaker 1: That amount of shooting, I think is going to make 541 00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:36,000 Speaker 1: Miami pay. Miami, by the way, just like Milwaukee, is 542 00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:38,719 Speaker 1: another team that gives up a ton of open threes. Now, 543 00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:42,480 Speaker 1: they actually lead the league in the half court in 544 00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:46,679 Speaker 1: three point uh Milwaukee overall gave up the most threes, 545 00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:49,960 Speaker 1: but Miami and the half court gave up according to 546 00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:52,240 Speaker 1: Cleaning the Glass, give up the most three point attempts, 547 00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:55,480 Speaker 1: but they also gave up the worst three point percentage. 548 00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:58,840 Speaker 1: So Spolstra is very smart about leaving guys open, but 549 00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:01,920 Speaker 1: leaving the right eyes open. But the trick is, like 550 00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:04,639 Speaker 1: I just said, I'm not sure Philly has a right 551 00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:07,919 Speaker 1: guy to leave open except for Matisse thybel Right. When 552 00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:10,480 Speaker 1: they're with their best lineups and you have James Harden 553 00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:13,000 Speaker 1: and Joel Embiad and Tyres Maxie and Tobias Harris and 554 00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:15,480 Speaker 1: Danny Green, there's just not a good guy to leave 555 00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:17,240 Speaker 1: open there. So if Miami is gonna give up a 556 00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:19,520 Speaker 1: ton of open threes and a ton of help on defense, 557 00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:23,520 Speaker 1: that specific team is equipped to make them pay. I 558 00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:25,560 Speaker 1: think this is gonna be a team a series that 559 00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:29,080 Speaker 1: gets ugly and is pretty low scoring. I think both 560 00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:31,399 Speaker 1: teams are gonna struggle to some extent scoring in the 561 00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:34,760 Speaker 1: half court. But I think the advanced the I think 562 00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:39,120 Speaker 1: Phillies embead advantage, meaning they have the best opportunity to 563 00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:43,400 Speaker 1: compromise the defense consistently by forcing double teams in conjunction 564 00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:46,720 Speaker 1: with their overall shooting and the fact that Miami's defense 565 00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:49,440 Speaker 1: is set up to give up three point shots. I 566 00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:52,160 Speaker 1: think that gives Philly the advantage in this series, and 567 00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:54,840 Speaker 1: I'm picking them to win in six, possibly a little 568 00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:56,800 Speaker 1: bit earlier. It's just a home court advantage thing that 569 00:28:56,880 --> 00:28:59,120 Speaker 1: throws it off for me going with Philly and six. 570 00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:02,760 Speaker 1: Really quickly, let's talk about Dallas and Phoenix, another series 571 00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:04,960 Speaker 1: where we can't take too much away from the regular season. 572 00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:08,080 Speaker 1: Luca only played in one game against Phoenix, was at home. 573 00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:12,680 Speaker 1: Phoenix dominated. In one they were uh Dallas actually led 574 00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:15,840 Speaker 1: the first three quarters in the Phoenix was unbelievably dominant 575 00:29:15,840 --> 00:29:17,600 Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter. They won the fourth quarter thirty 576 00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:20,000 Speaker 1: five to nineteen. We'll get into that just a second. 577 00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:23,280 Speaker 1: In that game, Luca was nine two for nine from 578 00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:26,800 Speaker 1: three eight assists, with eight turnovers and was a minus 579 00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:30,520 Speaker 1: seven disastrous fourth quarter. We saw some issues with Dallas's 580 00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:34,200 Speaker 1: fourth quarter offense against Utah, it does become predictable. But 581 00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:36,680 Speaker 1: part of the issue there was Rudy Gobert is very, 582 00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:39,160 Speaker 1: very difficult to score against. And for all the things 583 00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:41,760 Speaker 1: we said about Utah's defense, they did lock in and 584 00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:43,760 Speaker 1: get a lot of stops in crunch time, they just 585 00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:47,400 Speaker 1: got themselves killed throughout the rest of the game. Will 586 00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:51,200 Speaker 1: DeAndre Ayton provide the same type of deterrence as Gobert. 587 00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:53,240 Speaker 1: We're gonna see. We're gonna see if he can guard 588 00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:55,280 Speaker 1: Luca out on the perimeter. Another big thing is gonna 589 00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:58,720 Speaker 1: be how how willing is Phoenix to give up switches 590 00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:03,840 Speaker 1: with Chris Paul and Devin looker onto onto Luca, because 591 00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:07,160 Speaker 1: Luca has always had a ton of success against smaller 592 00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:10,000 Speaker 1: players because of his ability to use his body to 593 00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:12,680 Speaker 1: shield guys away from contact. So, to make a long 594 00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:15,840 Speaker 1: story short, I expect Luca and Dallas to have a 595 00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:19,440 Speaker 1: good amount of success against Phoenix's defense. Lucas too smart 596 00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:23,040 Speaker 1: and there are matchups to attack. Phoenix does run a 597 00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:26,360 Speaker 1: pretty traditional defensive scheme. Luca, I think, is going to 598 00:30:26,680 --> 00:30:29,080 Speaker 1: feast on that in a lot of settings. So much 599 00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:31,000 Speaker 1: of it is going to come down to how often 600 00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:34,440 Speaker 1: can he get Chris Paul and Devin Booker in single coverage. 601 00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:37,640 Speaker 1: Moving on to Phoenix on offense, this is where Chris 602 00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:40,520 Speaker 1: Paul becomes so devastating. We talked a lot about how 603 00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:43,560 Speaker 1: dallas defense is excellent. They make up for a lack 604 00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:47,920 Speaker 1: of defensive personnel with absurd effort and an excellent scheme. 605 00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:51,000 Speaker 1: But there's a little a good amount of gimmickiness to that, right, 606 00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:53,800 Speaker 1: There's there are a lot of options on the floor 607 00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:56,680 Speaker 1: to attack. Chris Paul is going to find a way 608 00:30:57,200 --> 00:31:00,920 Speaker 1: to to put Dallas in some predicaments defense Civilly, They're 609 00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:03,560 Speaker 1: gonna want to switch a lot of the screening role actions. 610 00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:06,760 Speaker 1: But again, do you like Maxine kleiva In in a 611 00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:09,760 Speaker 1: matchup against Chris Paul in isolation on the perimeter? Do 612 00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:12,120 Speaker 1: you like Chris Paul in isolation? Again? Do you like 613 00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:15,160 Speaker 1: Luca don Chitch and isolation against Chris Paul and the perimeter? Like, 614 00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:17,800 Speaker 1: I don't think Phoenix is gonna have any issues scoring. 615 00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:21,720 Speaker 1: And then a huge issue, especially when we're talking about 616 00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:25,680 Speaker 1: switching against Utah, Dallas could get away with switching smaller 617 00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:28,520 Speaker 1: defenders onto Gobert because Gobert is like one of the 618 00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:32,160 Speaker 1: worst matchup attacking bigs in the entire league. We've talked 619 00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:33,520 Speaker 1: a lot about it this season. I think he only 620 00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:36,480 Speaker 1: had ten made field goals in the entire regular season 621 00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:39,240 Speaker 1: against switches. It might even have been worse than that. 622 00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:41,600 Speaker 1: I can't remember. I just vaguely remember seeing that stat 623 00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:46,440 Speaker 1: somewhere on Twitter. But DeAndre Ayten significantly better. Kind of 624 00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:49,840 Speaker 1: a monster attacking switches. When Chris Paul pulls the big 625 00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:52,400 Speaker 1: away and the guard gets switched on to Aton, Chris 626 00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:55,120 Speaker 1: Paul is relentless on hitting Aton, and Aton just goes 627 00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:57,440 Speaker 1: to that quick, little, you know, a half hook that 628 00:31:57,520 --> 00:31:58,840 Speaker 1: he hits in the lane, and he hits it all 629 00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:00,520 Speaker 1: the time. He's got one of the best hook shots 630 00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:02,640 Speaker 1: in all of basketball right now. So that's gonna put 631 00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:05,880 Speaker 1: them in a bunch of predicaments. And then lastly, uh 632 00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:09,480 Speaker 1: Dallas really struggled guarding Boyan Bogdanovitch. We talked a lot 633 00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:11,960 Speaker 1: about this on the show, that big rim, pressuring wing, 634 00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:16,360 Speaker 1: especially against switching defenses, can just get great looks all 635 00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:18,480 Speaker 1: over the floor. Well, Devin Booker is not as big 636 00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:20,560 Speaker 1: as boy On Bogdanovich, but he is similar in the 637 00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:23,400 Speaker 1: way that he can attack shorter mismatches. There will be 638 00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:26,120 Speaker 1: spots on the guys on the floor for Dallas, like 639 00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:30,480 Speaker 1: guys like Reggie Bullock, guys like you know, uh, Jalen Brunson. 640 00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:32,520 Speaker 1: There are gonna be a lot of guys that Spencer Dinwood, 641 00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:34,480 Speaker 1: He's another one. They're gonna be a lot of guys 642 00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:37,760 Speaker 1: out there that Devin Booker is gonna feel comfortable attacking 643 00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:40,280 Speaker 1: in isolation, kind of similar to the way Bogdanovich did, 644 00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:42,400 Speaker 1: and he's gonna get a lot of good looks. I 645 00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:44,760 Speaker 1: this is another one where my head is telling me 646 00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:48,040 Speaker 1: Phoenix is gonna dominate. My head is telling me sweep 647 00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:50,440 Speaker 1: or five games that Phoenix is gonna win. But I 648 00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:53,680 Speaker 1: have too much respect for Luca. I think he's a 649 00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:56,680 Speaker 1: top tier superstar. I just have a feeling he's gonna 650 00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:58,920 Speaker 1: find a way to drag this series out. So I'm 651 00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:01,960 Speaker 1: going Phoenix in six. All right, guys, That is all 652 00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:04,520 Speaker 1: I have for today. I sincerely appreciate your guys support. 653 00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:07,200 Speaker 1: We will be back for a live show tomorrow right 654 00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:10,760 Speaker 1: after there's Bucks Celtics at ten am Pacific standard time, 655 00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:14,680 Speaker 1: Warriors Grizzlies at twelve thirty Pacific Standard time. We'll be 656 00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:18,960 Speaker 1: going live right after the Grizzlies Warriors game. We'll be 657 00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:22,000 Speaker 1: doing live shows on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday this weekend. 658 00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:24,960 Speaker 1: Then there are no games on Thursday, so be prepared 659 00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:27,120 Speaker 1: for live shows the next four days. As always, I 660 00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:29,120 Speaker 1: appreciate your guys support and I will see you tomorrow. 661 00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:44,360 Speaker 1: The Volume