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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action boss. All right.

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Speaker 3: Here we go.

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Speaker 2: Throwing into.

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Speaker 4: We're sitting it to catch stars.

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Speaker 5: We'll see the most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 5: they go to wind.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 4: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 5: All right.

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Speaker 2: This is the ultimate kabah and we are underway.

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Speaker 5: What's up, everybody, and welcome to the Action Network Podcast

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Speaker 5: presented by Fan Duel.

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Speaker 4: I am your host, Chris Raybond.

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Speaker 5: This is your week seventeen NFL betting preview where we

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Speaker 5: talk about our favorite totals, teasers, underdogs, and crack open

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Speaker 5: our weekly Sunday six pack of against the spread bets

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Speaker 5: with the help of my co host, the Prime Minister

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Speaker 5: of Degenerate Nation, Stucky Duck.

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Speaker 4: What's going on? How's your holidays?

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Speaker 2: They were good. Was here in Kentucky because it was

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Speaker 2: the weekend and I, you know, had work with games,

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Speaker 2: and wife had work and with a bar, and so

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Speaker 2: I didn't travel luckily. Hearing all the horror stories about traveling, luckily,

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Speaker 2: I wasn't one of them. There's another winning weekend the NFL,

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Speaker 2: which was good. Who cares? We're on the the next week.

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Speaker 2: I was probably not lucky with the Cowboys. And then

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Speaker 2: the Patriots games made me so angry because the week

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Speaker 2: before I was on the I faded the Bengals, No

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Speaker 2: showed in the second half and after being you know,

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Speaker 2: down what twenty one or seventeen to nothing? Then this,

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Speaker 2: this is a complete opposite. And then the Patriots missed

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Speaker 2: two extra points, miss a two point conversion and fumble

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Speaker 2: inside the ten and lose by the hook. That one

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Speaker 2: was annoying, but not sure I deserved it. But overall,

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Speaker 2: winning weekend not as good as you. I think he

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Speaker 2: swept again. I think that's a.

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Speaker 4: Record for the Pack.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, which is all I care about. Another great

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Speaker 2: week for the pos. Let's keep it rolling into week seventeen.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, let's do it.

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Speaker 5: And we're gonna start with the Thursday Night Football, so eight,

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Speaker 5: so let's jump right into it.

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Speaker 1: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday night football.

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Speaker 5: So we have the Dallas Cowboys going to Tennessee to

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Speaker 5: take on the Titans. The line is eleven, the total

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Speaker 5: is forty. In the line is in favor of the Cowboys. Obviously,

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Speaker 5: the big thing to know here is the Titans essentially

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Speaker 5: have to beat the Jaguars in Week eighteen to win

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Speaker 5: the AFC South, so they essentially could treat this game

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Speaker 5: like a preseason game. You might see them rest people here,

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Speaker 5: and that's why this line.

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Speaker 4: Is starting to balloon.

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Speaker 5: So you're you know, by the time you're listen to this,

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Speaker 5: we might have more clarity. But as of now, it

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Speaker 5: looks like it's a good possibility that the Titans kind

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Speaker 5: of treat take this game lightly and gear up for

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Speaker 5: Week eighteen.

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Speaker 4: So with that in mind, how do you kind of

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Speaker 4: approach this game?

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Speaker 2: It's not there is actually one path where the Titans

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Speaker 2: could get a wild card, but it would involve them

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Speaker 2: winning this week and then them tying next week. Obviously

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Speaker 2: a lot of other things would have to happen, but

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Speaker 2: there is like a paf a percent chance that we

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Speaker 2: could have the situation a Week eight team where the

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Speaker 2: Jags and Titans, if they tie, they both get in.

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Speaker 2: But it's so far beyond their own possibilities, and you're

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Speaker 2: playing a superior opponent that and you're dealing with a

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Speaker 2: ton of injuries on a short week. So the Titans

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Speaker 2: are just all in on next week's game, which will

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Speaker 2: decide the division. The Jaguars, who will get to They

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Speaker 2: have a slightly better chance in a while CD. I

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Speaker 2: think around eight to ten percent, so you might see

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Speaker 2: them try a little more. But we do have more

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Speaker 2: clarity on who the Titans will and won't play. Daniko

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Speaker 2: Autry doubtful. Just got just the century report just came out.

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Speaker 2: Dyn't call their linebacker Zach Cunningham Bud Dupree all out,

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Speaker 2: Christian Fulton doubtful, Derrick Henry doubtful, Amani Hooker out, Petite

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Speaker 2: Ferrer out, Tannehill out, Jeffrey Simmons out like it. They

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Speaker 2: are resting what ten starters. Yeah, they don't need this game,

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Speaker 2: and the Cowboys could still win the division. The Cowboys

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Speaker 2: have int sent them to win. The Cowboys secondary is

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Speaker 2: a mess right now, but that's not something Malik Willis

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Speaker 2: is going to take advantage of, especially with a beat

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Speaker 2: up off its line against his pass rush. Malik Willis

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Speaker 2: negative point four to two EPA per play. That's one

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Speaker 2: hundred and sixty second out of one hundred and sixty

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Speaker 2: two quarterbacks with at least one hundred snaps since twenty ten,

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Speaker 2: So yes, from an EPA perspective, he's been the worst

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Speaker 2: quarterback in the NFL that includes Zach Wilson. The second

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Speaker 2: worst actually over that time is Nathan Peterman at negative

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Speaker 2: point three to five to nine. To actually take advantage

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Speaker 2: of a tech beat up Tennessee secondary and pass defense

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Speaker 2: that is just reeling, Dak's usually good in these spots

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Speaker 2: against inferior opponents. I don't know if I could lay

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Speaker 2: eleven Titans, by the way, just on a complete downfall.

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Speaker 2: I think they haven't covered five in a row. Good

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Speaker 2: money line parlay piece in my opinion, I used the

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Speaker 2: pair at the package, which we talk about later. What

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Speaker 2: don't even mind me under I mean the Titans, this

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Speaker 2: is just like an exhibition game for them, So yeah,

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Speaker 2: it means nothing. This is just stay healthy, rest everyone,

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Speaker 2: and get ready for jack to trip to Jacksonville, which

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Speaker 2: will decide the division next week. And the good news

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Speaker 2: is if the Titans do indeed just you know, lose

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Speaker 2: this game, as they're expected to do, their win total

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Speaker 2: undercashes for me, which I thought a chance about six

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Speaker 2: or seven weeks ago. So yeah, it's I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I can't like twelve now, but I think the Cowboys

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Speaker 2: are a good money one parla piece, which means, by

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Speaker 2: the way my moneyline parlays, the last three weeks that

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Speaker 2: I've used these big money on parlays, they've all like

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Speaker 2: either gone to overtime or come down to the wire.

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Speaker 2: And maybe the Titans are the play. But yeah, this

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Speaker 2: game's a mess.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, the under actually, I mean, because it keeps getting

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Speaker 5: lower and lower, and you know you've kind of read

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Speaker 5: out that injury report and there are a bunch of

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Speaker 5: defensive players on that report as well, and so I

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Speaker 5: kind of worry about that just because we've seen the

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Speaker 5: Cowboys put up some big numbers, especially in kind of

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Speaker 5: in spots where the other team is not really you know,

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Speaker 5: going you know, full in, Like I think it was

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Speaker 5: the Eagles they put up like fifty something. I remember

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Speaker 5: them putting up fifty something on Washington.

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Speaker 4: Wait in the year.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so you know, the under actually could get dicey,

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Speaker 5: especially if you get you know, a turnover too from

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Speaker 5: a week willis you know, deep in his own territory

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Speaker 5: and you don't have Derreck Henry here to move the sticks.

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Speaker 5: I mean, the Titans could just be backed up and

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Speaker 5: you know, punting from their five years, I mean, I

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Speaker 5: know the punter is pretty decent, but uh, yeah, the

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Speaker 5: under actually scares me just because it keeps under the

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Speaker 5: key number of forty one. Now, from a trend's perspective,

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Speaker 5: if Tennessee does indeed fail to cover the number, this

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Speaker 5: would only be the ninth time in thirty one games

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Speaker 5: that Mike Rabel a Mike Vrabel coach team would have

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Speaker 5: failed to cover a spread of an underdog by field

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Speaker 5: goal or morse.

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Speaker 2: But like, Tennessee doesn't care, So it's not like you

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Speaker 2: have a motivated Tennessee team. This is uh, this is

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Speaker 2: an ugly.

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Speaker 5: Game and what and you know, we'd like to talk

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Speaker 5: about these trends. You know, even if they're sixty seventy percent,

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Speaker 5: there's still you know, thirty forty percent.

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Speaker 4: Of the time where they lose.

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Speaker 5: And this is the kind of game that they probably

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Speaker 5: lose because you can't really it's hard to filter for

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Speaker 5: lack of motivation, you know. And you know, as good

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Speaker 5: as bet Labs is, there's no real trend for that.

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Speaker 5: Just kind of you have to kind of know, uh

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Speaker 5: and kind of single these these instances out.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, stay away from me as well.

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Speaker 5: But I agree, I think you could get some Cowboys

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Speaker 5: money line going here.

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Speaker 4: Partly with something else.

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Speaker 5: All right, let's jump into the week seventy Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 1: Thursday for Action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 4: All right, it's now sixty six forty eight, so jesus,

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Speaker 4: I can't sleep in the I can sweep in the three.

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Speaker 4: I don't know, definitely got to be around.

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Speaker 2: I'm in here, like sixty percent in the NFL this year.

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Speaker 2: I've had two losing weeks. I have like I'm crushing

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Speaker 2: it and I'm getting because you're just on another level.

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Speaker 4: And you know I was.

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Speaker 5: I was checking my my Action Network app recap, you know,

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Speaker 5: do a great recap of your top year, and apparently

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Speaker 5: my top team I guess I want you guess who's

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Speaker 5: my Who do you think my top team of twenty

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Speaker 5: twenty two was? Units wise the Panthers, I would have

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Speaker 5: thought that might have been two, the San Francisco forty

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Speaker 5: nine ers. I think it's because it was like betting

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Speaker 5: them every week in the playoffs and then against you know,

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Speaker 5: betting them against the Rams twice fifth year. So I

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Speaker 5: think I think I just went like five and oh

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Speaker 5: or six and o or something. I had like buck

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Speaker 5: seven and a half units on the Niners. But that

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Speaker 5: kind of surprised me too.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, mine was. I'm still even after last week, still

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Speaker 2: the Bengals, and that I've got every playoff game, super Bowl,

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Speaker 2: and then a bunch earlier in the season and they're

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Speaker 2: twenty and three. Yeah again the past twenty three games.

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Speaker 5: You should just bet the Bengals as favors every week,

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Speaker 5: just like fuck it, Like they should cover every fucking

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Speaker 5: week somehow, I mean not somehow, they're they are a

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Speaker 5: good team, but yeah, they do.

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Speaker 2: They do get some good variants at the end and

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Speaker 2: at the end of game second half lately. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: if you coot Joe Burrow and that offense and the

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Speaker 2: defensive adjustments they make in the second half leads to

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Speaker 2: a lot of covers, and especially when Nick Folk misses

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Speaker 2: two extra points. Yeah, not better?

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Speaker 4: All right, So you started stuff, we go. It's your

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Speaker 4: first pick.

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Speaker 2: For my first pick of the week seventeen Sunday six pack,

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Speaker 2: I'm going with the New York Football Jets minus one

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Speaker 2: and a half at the Seattle Seahawks. Mike White is back.

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Speaker 2: That's all that matters here. I don't understand the market

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Speaker 2: and how the market is rating the difference between Mike

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Speaker 2: White and Zach Wilson. Two weeks in a row, we've

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Speaker 2: seen Mike White get ruled out and the Jets take

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Speaker 2: money late in the week with Zach Wilson starting, I

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Speaker 2: take what moved two to three points to the Jets,

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Speaker 2: which makes zero sense because Zach Wilson now has a

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Speaker 2: lower e LO through twenty his first twenty two starts

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Speaker 2: than any other quarterback in the history of the NFL.

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Speaker 2: He is a complete and ut her bust. He is awful.

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Speaker 2: He's horrendous. Mike White not only has this locker room,

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Speaker 2: but he can run the offense and he can complete passes.

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Speaker 2: That's what the Jets need. And since Week ten, you know,

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Speaker 2: after those Cardinals wins, I remember I was making fun

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Speaker 2: of Seattle, and Seattle hasn't covered since. By the way,

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Speaker 2: Seattle Island lonely plays Seattle's thirty first and EPA per

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Speaker 2: play on D. They've played the Raiders, Rams, Panthers, forty

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Speaker 2: nine ers in chiefs, three backup quarterbacks in there, and

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Speaker 2: their thirty first and EPA per play on D locket.

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Speaker 2: We don't know how healthy you'll be or if you'll

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Speaker 2: even play. I assume we'll play, but he's got to

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Speaker 2: beat a pen. I don't know if he can hang

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Speaker 2: on the balls. But the Jets can take away the run.

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Speaker 2: That neutralizes Geno Smith, who's declining and coming back down

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Speaker 2: to earth with each week. And Jets do get a

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Speaker 2: few extra days rest here. If they're playing on Thursday.

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Speaker 2: They're five and two against the spread on the road

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Speaker 2: this year. They've had no problem going on the highway.

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Speaker 2: They are games they didn't cover. Where the Vikings game

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Speaker 2: where they dominated and got stopp at the goal on

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Speaker 2: like three times at the end, and then the Pats

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Speaker 2: walk off punt return which covered to three and a half.

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Speaker 2: That's it, Jets. Both teams need to win keep their

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Speaker 2: playoff hopes alive. Motivation will be there for both the Seahawks.

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Speaker 2: I don't think the market is adjusted fast enough to

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Speaker 2: the Seahawks that people still take like, oh, Gino Smith.

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Speaker 2: They haven't covered in six weeks. They're on a downward trend,

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Speaker 2: and I don't think the market is upgrading the Jets

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Speaker 2: enough for Mike White, Jets defense will be the best

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Speaker 2: unit on the field by a wide margin. That's the

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Speaker 2: difference here. Jets get it done on the road, give

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Speaker 2: me Mike White.

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Speaker 5: I love this just uh, you've just been kind of

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Speaker 5: following the Mike White money the last couple of weeks.

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Speaker 5: It's like when he when he starts, you bet the Jets.

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Speaker 5: When he's not, you fade the Jets. And then that

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Speaker 5: one time you got to cat with Mike White getting

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Speaker 5: ruled out, which is ridiculous. Yeah, I have. I don't

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Speaker 5: have the number quite as high as you, but I

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Speaker 5: don't mind it. You know, I think you're essentially just

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Speaker 5: kind of picking which, you know, inside of three, inside

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Speaker 5: of two even so you're just kind of picking which

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Speaker 5: team you think is gonna win.

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Speaker 4: And I would lean Jets as well here.

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Speaker 5: I think that Sea Huff run defense just wets teams

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Speaker 5: kind of hang around even if you're not the greatest offense.

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Speaker 5: That the Jets are a pretty fout offense with White,

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Speaker 5: but you know, because their run defense is so bad,

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Speaker 5: they let you get into third and manageable, and so

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Speaker 5: it kind of negates. So you know, Woulan and some

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Speaker 5: of those guys, and they're not even great in terms

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Speaker 5: of defending number one and number two wide receivers even

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Speaker 5: with those with those corners. So it's I think that

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Speaker 5: run defense is really starting to hurt them. So the Jets,

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Speaker 5: their run game has kind of gone missing these past

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Speaker 5: couple of games. So I think that being able to

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Speaker 5: recapture that Donovan Knight, you know, Michael Carter is healthier now,

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Speaker 5: I think that will.

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Speaker 4: Be key for the Jets offense to not just not

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Speaker 4: just Mike White.

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Speaker 2: They went out, the Jets I think will be ninety

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Speaker 2: to go eighty seven.

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Speaker 4: Ye yeah, we're now and the Jets are eighty seven

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Speaker 4: percent chance.

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Speaker 5: There's only like one scenario I think if Wing Wing

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Speaker 5: goes undefeated, that would I think that would would knock

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Speaker 5: the Jumps out.

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Speaker 2: Yep, all right, see I'm going Jets. Where you going next? Well,

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Speaker 2: it's gonna.

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Speaker 5: Be it's gonna be kind of an ugly week. But

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Speaker 5: for my first pick in the second overall of the week,

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Speaker 5: seventeen Sunday six pack going with the New Orleans Saints

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Speaker 5: plus sick on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles, And like,

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Speaker 5: this number to me is pretty big when you consider

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Speaker 5: that number one, he was the starting Gardner Minshew. Number two,

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Speaker 5: the Eagles lost the best offensive lineman or you could

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Speaker 5: say second best depending on what you think of Kelsey.

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Speaker 5: But Wayne Johnson. That's big seventh of eighty one tackles. Yeah,

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Speaker 5: that is what he grades out as. So you're getting

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Speaker 5: the Eagles, but you're getting the Eagles team that is

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Speaker 5: still kind of sitting pretty in terms of their playoff position,

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Speaker 5: a team that now has to be a little more careful,

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Speaker 5: I think, because now you're finding out that maybe Jalen

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Speaker 5: Hurts is hurt a little more than we thought he was,

295
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Speaker 5: and there's a question of how even effective he can

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Speaker 5: be if he does come back for the playoffs. So

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Speaker 5: now it's like you gotta maybe be a little more

298
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Speaker 5: careful with Minshew too, and maybe some of these other

299
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Speaker 5: guys as well. So I know Philly wants to beat

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Speaker 5: New Orleans for the draft pick, but this New Orleans

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Speaker 5: team has been solid on defense. This is just a

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Speaker 5: too big of a number here when you're talking about

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Speaker 5: a backup quarterback and your best offensive lineman out against

304
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Speaker 5: the New Orleans team that you know their defense has been,

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Speaker 5: it's traveled well. You know, we just have to hope

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Speaker 5: that New Orleans can give give us enough points here.

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Speaker 5: But you're getting six, six and a half at some spots.

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Speaker 5: I've seen a sevens. I really like this matchup for

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Speaker 5: New Orleans here. You know, Andy Dalton pretty has been

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Speaker 5: good against zone coverage all year.

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Speaker 4: Philly loves to play zone coverage.

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Speaker 5: And it's another one of these games where you're seeing

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Speaker 5: a a large spread and a total that's not that high.

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Speaker 5: You know, the totals forty four, of course, because you

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Speaker 5: got Gardner Minshew instead of Jalen Hurts and you got

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Speaker 5: one of your best off at the linemen in the

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Speaker 5: league out.

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Speaker 4: But yet when you see these totals.

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Speaker 5: This year, anything more than a field goal with a

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Speaker 5: total of forty seven or less sixty seven and forty

321
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Speaker 5: one against the spread sixty two percent, And that makes

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00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:26,720
Speaker 5: a ton of sense because it's just hard to get

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Speaker 5: separation cover these numbers and you know, stop the team

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Speaker 5: from you know, potentially getting a back door, getting it

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Speaker 5: to with you know, getting it to within three points

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Speaker 5: wait in the game.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, give me New Orleans here. I like the

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Speaker 4: way New Orleans is playing.

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Speaker 5: I think that they'll be able to exploit this Philly

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Speaker 5: run dye, which is still.

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Speaker 4: It's not great.

332
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Speaker 5: It's it's better than it was at some points in

333
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Speaker 5: the year, but it's still averaged about seven sixteen seventeens

334
00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:57,440
Speaker 5: by DVA weighted, So I think, Philly, you know, it's

335
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Speaker 5: gonna be a much more of a struggle than then

336
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Speaker 5: I think people think. And the thing that I really

337
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Speaker 5: caught my eye about Minshew was that he had a

338
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Speaker 5: seventy nine pasth rating. He has a seventy nine paths

339
00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:10,159
Speaker 5: rating this year from a queen pocket. He has a

340
00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:12,880
Speaker 5: sixty two pass the rating when he's not blitzed.

341
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Speaker 4: And you know, New Orleans is for.

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Speaker 5: Whatever reason, they haven't been the greatest at getting pressure,

343
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Speaker 5: but they don't force it. They kind of sit back

344
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Speaker 5: and they're gonna play their coverage and Minshew really hasn't

345
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Speaker 5: been great even with all those weapons against those coverages yet.

346
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Speaker 5: So you know, I think there's even a chance Philadelphia

347
00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:32,600
Speaker 5: could end up losing this game. But I could see,

348
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Speaker 5: you know, twenty seven to twenty four, twenty three to

349
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Speaker 5: twenty type of game where New Orleans stays feisty on

350
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Speaker 5: both sides of the ball, runs some Taysom Hill packages

351
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Speaker 5: and stays in this.

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Speaker 4: So give me New Orleans plus six.

353
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I completely agree here. Lane Johnson injury is huge.

354
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Speaker 2: The Eagles are three and ten straight up without Lane

355
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Speaker 2: Johnson since twenty twenty, arguably the best right tackle in

356
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Speaker 2: the NFL. He's huge. You also have like CJ. Garter Johnson,

357
00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:00,800
Speaker 2: probably still out of Ante Maddox, who's really really important.

358
00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:05,640
Speaker 2: He's most likely out Jordan Davis, who's been so big

359
00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:08,000
Speaker 2: to the Rundy the rund numbers fall off a cliff.

360
00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:11,320
Speaker 2: He has a concussion. You also look at their practice

361
00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:14,440
Speaker 2: report from today. Miles Sanders would have been a DMP

362
00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:19,680
Speaker 2: with an injury, and as and Aj Brown is limited

363
00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:21,760
Speaker 2: with a knee injury, assuming he'll play. But yeah, the

364
00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:25,600
Speaker 2: Saints defense has been playing a lot better. They're healthier now.

365
00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:29,159
Speaker 2: They are one of three teams the NFL that has

366
00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:31,919
Speaker 2: allowed less than twenty points and four straight games, the

367
00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:35,239
Speaker 2: other two being the Steelers and Ravens, who play each other.

368
00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:37,200
Speaker 2: We'll talk about that game later, But yeah, the Eagles

369
00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:40,080
Speaker 2: aren't healthy now. Eagles are also thirteen and two in

370
00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:43,000
Speaker 2: the last twenty years. And I agree this line is inflated.

371
00:18:43,280 --> 00:18:46,440
Speaker 2: Last twenty years. Teams within eighty five percent plus win

372
00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:49,600
Speaker 2: percentage in that has to be week ten or later

373
00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:54,119
Speaker 2: fifty one point eighty nine and two against the spread

374
00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:58,439
Speaker 2: thirty six point four percent. So yeah, I agree with

375
00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:02,640
Speaker 2: you on the Saints with Minshew star arding And yeah,

376
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Speaker 2: I think the Eagles, you can cut this out of

377
00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:11,920
Speaker 2: the I like, look, the coaches wanted to like rest

378
00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:14,719
Speaker 2: last week, and they got all these injuries because and

379
00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:16,960
Speaker 2: Lorie came down late in the week and said, no,

380
00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:18,760
Speaker 2: we got to beat the Cowboys, and they ended up

381
00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:22,040
Speaker 2: playing everyone and getting hurt, getting key injuries. Lane Johnson,

382
00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:26,000
Speaker 2: if he's out for the postseason, that could be massive.

383
00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:29,520
Speaker 2: They're going against the forty nine ers the Cowboys. You

384
00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:33,239
Speaker 2: saw when Lane Johnson went down against the Cowboys. It

385
00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:35,560
Speaker 2: was a completely different game when they were playing against

386
00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:40,040
Speaker 2: Cooper Rush and they had to just our offense just

387
00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:41,879
Speaker 2: went into the tank. So yeah, they they had a

388
00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:43,920
Speaker 2: number of injuries. Jordan Davison board in the run game.

389
00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:46,879
Speaker 2: They had some secondary injuries. And yeah, I think the

390
00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:48,879
Speaker 2: Saints will be feisty, hear in a lower scoring game.

391
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Speaker 2: I think six is the way to go.

392
00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:51,600
Speaker 4: By the way.

393
00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:54,840
Speaker 5: You know, what's what it's setting up for with these

394
00:19:54,920 --> 00:20:00,000
Speaker 5: NFC playoffs, right, you know forty nine ers keep moving quarterbacks,

395
00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,879
Speaker 5: moving key players. You know, the Vikings are gonna just

396
00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:04,800
Speaker 5: end up winning the NFC and going to Super Bowl

397
00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:10,000
Speaker 5: after this fucking ridiculous season eleven and eleven and zero

398
00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:12,160
Speaker 5: in one score games like it's gonna happen.

399
00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:16,960
Speaker 2: That's enough to Vikings plus twenty one against the Bills

400
00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:19,960
Speaker 2: in the Super Bowl. The thing is, then Vikings fans

401
00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:22,359
Speaker 2: will be will say, oh, look see we were everyone

402
00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:24,920
Speaker 2: said we were. We weren't as good as no, you're

403
00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:27,680
Speaker 2: I mean, your estimated wins are six, by the way,

404
00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:29,640
Speaker 2: they have twelve. But all you gonna do is get

405
00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:32,679
Speaker 2: in the I think the Giants in two thousand and

406
00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:36,320
Speaker 2: eleven finished they won the Super Bowl. By the way,

407
00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:40,280
Speaker 2: they finish the season, including the playoffs, with a negative

408
00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:43,800
Speaker 2: point differential. I believe that's the cry the whole season.

409
00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:46,679
Speaker 2: They snuck in the playoffs. That's all you gotta do,

410
00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:49,960
Speaker 2: sneak in. Once you get in again, you could win

411
00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:52,240
Speaker 2: a You're gonna you could win a couple more lucky games,

412
00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:53,400
Speaker 2: and then all of a sudden, you're in the Super Bowl.

413
00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:56,280
Speaker 2: It's football. So yeah, that would be very fitting for

414
00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:59,679
Speaker 2: this season. All right. For my second pick of the

415
00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:04,399
Speaker 2: Throw all the Week, seventeen Sunday six pack, I'm going

416
00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:08,560
Speaker 2: with the Indianapolis Colts plus five and a half at

417
00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:12,200
Speaker 2: the New York Giants. This is a bread and butter

418
00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:14,159
Speaker 2: play for me. I'll have an article out this weekend

419
00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:19,840
Speaker 2: next week about these types of plays. Week seventeen, Week

420
00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:24,080
Speaker 2: eighteen teams that need to win everyone. Look, the Giants

421
00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 2: need to win. The Colts are dead, They're eliminating everyone.

422
00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:29,520
Speaker 2: Just saw them get embarrassed again on Monday Night football

423
00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:32,720
Speaker 2: eliminated teams the final two weeks of the regular season

424
00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:36,600
Speaker 2: playing teams that need to win are ninety five, fifty

425
00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:39,600
Speaker 2: seven and four against the spread. That sixty two point

426
00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:42,479
Speaker 2: four percent sixty two and a half percent since nineteen

427
00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:45,879
Speaker 2: ninety sample size of about one hundred and fifty games,

428
00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:48,960
Speaker 2: sixty two and a half percent because the teams that

429
00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:52,400
Speaker 2: need to win are generally inflated late in the season,

430
00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:56,280
Speaker 2: and for what it's worth, last twe week's the thirgo season. Also,

431
00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:59,040
Speaker 2: teams are the win percentage between forty and seventy percent

432
00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:03,359
Speaker 2: who have a five to thirty five percent win differential

433
00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 2: in the positive direction against their opponent are fifty seven,

434
00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:10,960
Speaker 2: eighty eight and five against the spread thirty nine point

435
00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:13,359
Speaker 2: three percent over the past twenty years, So I think

436
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:15,480
Speaker 2: this number is inflated like the Giants have been feisty.

437
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:18,959
Speaker 2: But the Giants also have all their wins. All eight

438
00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 2: wins have come by one score, including a number of

439
00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:23,840
Speaker 2: fourth quarter comebacks. Nick Foles is going to get the

440
00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:25,600
Speaker 2: start again for the Colts. I don't think there's any

441
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:29,240
Speaker 2: drop off between him and Ryan and so whatever. They

442
00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:32,520
Speaker 2: all stink, but at least Foles got the rust off right.

443
00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:34,640
Speaker 2: Like last week was his first game. You could tell

444
00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:38,119
Speaker 2: he was just off and like reading coverages, and it

445
00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 2: was his first first action of the season. So he's

446
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:42,399
Speaker 2: not going to be good, but he'll be better than

447
00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:44,960
Speaker 2: he was last week after or at least I assume,

448
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:46,800
Speaker 2: And then you alf the Colts should also get their

449
00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:49,200
Speaker 2: run game going here, going against the Giants Rundy, which

450
00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:53,160
Speaker 2: is I think thirty first and EPAI per rush thirty first, DVOA.

451
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:57,360
Speaker 2: They're very bad, poor Rundy. So the Colts actually can

452
00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:00,560
Speaker 2: lean on a little bit on the ground here and

453
00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:03,520
Speaker 2: the Giants. You're asking the Giants to win by touchdown here.

454
00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:06,000
Speaker 2: That is not the Giants. Mo. This is when you

455
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:08,080
Speaker 2: want to fade the Giants at home as a favor.

456
00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:11,000
Speaker 2: By the way, Daniel Jones, this is he's only been

457
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:13,919
Speaker 2: favored by more than this one other time he's favored

458
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:17,200
Speaker 2: by six and a half. At Cincy in twenty twenty,

459
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:18,960
Speaker 2: they must have been sitting guys. I don't even know,

460
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:21,399
Speaker 2: but they are. They only won by two in that game, a.

461
00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 4: Game, that's what it was.

462
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:25,520
Speaker 2: A bright now, So yeah, this is when you want

463
00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:27,640
Speaker 2: to fade the Giants, all the pressures on the Giants.

464
00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:31,920
Speaker 2: The Colts are still gonna try. There's still professional athletes.

465
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:35,280
Speaker 2: This is what happens in the NFL every single season.

466
00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:37,920
Speaker 2: And by the way, the Colts, what if when we

467
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 2: backed them this year after an embarrassing loss, what have

468
00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:43,400
Speaker 2: they done after their double digit losses this year? They

469
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 2: lost by three at Minnesota In the game they were

470
00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:49,639
Speaker 2: up thirty three nothing. They beat the Chiefs, but yes, yeah,

471
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:53,719
Speaker 2: and they won at the Raiders, so they were three

472
00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:55,960
Speaker 2: and zero against the spread as underdogs should be three

473
00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:58,399
Speaker 2: and oh straight up, this line is too high. You're

474
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:01,640
Speaker 2: asking this Giants team which is still Yeah. Look, their

475
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:03,720
Speaker 2: offense has been way better just because of the coaching.

476
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:06,959
Speaker 2: There's a huge coaching mismatch here. But I like coaching

477
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:10,119
Speaker 2: mismatches when I had back in the team as an

478
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:13,160
Speaker 2: underdog a lot more than when they have to cover

479
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,200
Speaker 2: by margin here, So I think this line is a

480
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:18,840
Speaker 2: little inflated. All the pressure is on the Giants and

481
00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:22,040
Speaker 2: give me the Colts here after getting embarrassed on Monday

482
00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 2: night with Big Dick Nick Foles.

483
00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 4: Yeah yeah, I was thinking about this one too. I

484
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:28,480
Speaker 4: think this is the right side.

485
00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:31,200
Speaker 5: Uh you know, probably, and I know some people were

486
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 5: on the I think sharps were on the the Coats

487
00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:37,240
Speaker 5: last week too against the Chargers, but probably a week

488
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:40,320
Speaker 5: too soon. You know, as you mentioned, Foles has to

489
00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:41,959
Speaker 5: knock off the rut. They have to kind of get

490
00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:45,240
Speaker 5: their offense in line here. But yeah, this Giant team,

491
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:48,399
Speaker 5: we know their mo You know they're gonna be in

492
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:51,679
Speaker 5: a one possession game and they you know, now they

493
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 5: have to win it by a touchdown. They have to

494
00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:57,520
Speaker 5: you know, prevent the Coats from you know, getting a

495
00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:00,919
Speaker 5: backdoor way you know, foes one to throw down field.

496
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:04,600
Speaker 5: More Giants will play man coverage, so folks will get

497
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:07,560
Speaker 5: some opportunities to throw it down the field. Now we connect,

498
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:11,119
Speaker 5: We don't know, but the Colts receivers aren't terrible. I

499
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:14,159
Speaker 5: mean they got they got heath a skilled with position guys,

500
00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 5: so you know, just have to get full some time

501
00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:20,560
Speaker 5: a couple of times to get to get some shots downfield.

502
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:22,000
Speaker 2: But yeah, and the good thing is you have a

503
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 2: you know, it's a low total for what it's worth.

504
00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:27,679
Speaker 2: Week sixteen road Dogs from twenty three to twenty twenty,

505
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:29,920
Speaker 2: that was before the schedule expansions. At a second to

506
00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:33,200
Speaker 2: last week road Dogs that with an under five hundred record,

507
00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:36,360
Speaker 2: catching over a field goal fifty three to thirty five

508
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 2: and two against the spread sixty percent a lot of

509
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 2: times these teams. Again, that goes that that speaks directly

510
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:42,199
Speaker 2: to like the teams that need to win, playing a

511
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:45,240
Speaker 2: team that's already eliminated, usually getting some line value. The

512
00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 2: other thing is here you're getting a Colts defense that's

513
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:50,000
Speaker 2: healthy now and it's still a top ten unit. I

514
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 2: think their tenth DVOA and eight and waded DVA, so

515
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 2: that yeah, they're still playing the most recent games. Yeah, yeah,

516
00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 2: they're still playing hard, and yeah, I think that this

517
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:03,160
Speaker 2: game will be close. Wouldn't shock me at the Colts won.

518
00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:07,400
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean the total thirty eight and a half,

519
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:10,359
Speaker 5: you know, was thinking about that under but it's just

520
00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 5: gotten so low. And because the Giants play man coverage

521
00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:15,879
Speaker 5: not not my favorite spot, you know, especially with the

522
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 5: Colts coming off a bad game. You know, usually those

523
00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:20,960
Speaker 5: Lions are kind of inflated the other way deflated, I

524
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:24,280
Speaker 5: guess you could say with you know, with the team

525
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:27,679
Speaker 5: coming off a three point show. And so yeah, I

526
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:31,240
Speaker 5: like this one. And speaking of which, for my second.

527
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:33,679
Speaker 4: Pick, the fourth overall of the.

528
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:37,639
Speaker 5: Week, seventeen Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Chicago

529
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 5: Bears plus six at the Detroit Lions. And you kind

530
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:44,879
Speaker 5: of hit on a lot of the reasoning with the

531
00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 5: with the Colts. I mean, the Bears are, you know,

532
00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:51,720
Speaker 5: playing for draft positioning at this point, and the Lions

533
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:55,159
Speaker 5: still have a playoff shot, and I think this is

534
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:56,920
Speaker 5: too many points. I think this would be too many

535
00:26:56,920 --> 00:27:01,200
Speaker 5: points even regardless here, because yeah, I know Chicago's defense

536
00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:04,880
Speaker 5: is very bad, but their secondaries has been improving over

537
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 5: the last couple of weeks. Kyra Gordon, the rookie is

538
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 5: ranked twenty second of one of six qualifiers at Cornerball.

539
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:15,320
Speaker 2: You go, you're going with the Bears. Yeah, God damn you.

540
00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:19,240
Speaker 2: So we do it to give a uh peek into

541
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:21,040
Speaker 2: how we do this. So like we'll just message each

542
00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:23,360
Speaker 2: other because we do a steak draft. And I think,

543
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:25,160
Speaker 2: by the way, eight weeks in a arrow. You've gone

544
00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:26,679
Speaker 2: with a pick. Your first pick has been one that

545
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:32,719
Speaker 2: I wanted you picked. You messaged me Detroit, Oh, so,

546
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 2: which doesn't matter, but I was I was like, oh,

547
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:37,159
Speaker 2: I was like, I like the Bears. I was like,

548
00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:39,159
Speaker 2: I could pick up a point here. Yeah. I'm so

549
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 2: curious to hear your reason for with Detroit.

550
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:45,160
Speaker 4: No no, no, no.

551
00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, so really far.

552
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm taking about Bears plus Stics because of the

553
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 5: same reason they are eliminated. Detroit is not. I think

554
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:58,760
Speaker 5: this is too many points. I think Chicago's secondary is improving,

555
00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:01,160
Speaker 5: as I mentioned. You know, Ky Gordon's ran twenty second

556
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:03,119
Speaker 5: over the last couple of weeks, got two picks, and

557
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:06,520
Speaker 5: jaymen Jones or ear other corner. Uh IS has allowed

558
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:09,480
Speaker 5: just fifty nine yards and ten targets with two path

559
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:12,879
Speaker 5: breakups over the last two weeks. And so I think that,

560
00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 5: you know, the d line is still bad. Let's not

561
00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:18,160
Speaker 5: get it twisted. But we'll talk about Detroit. I mean,

562
00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 5: Detroit's kind of stinking back down as well. But you know,

563
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:24,240
Speaker 5: we know Detroit left the Blitz justin fields one O

564
00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 5: five path rating against the Blitz compared to A two

565
00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:29,720
Speaker 5: when he's not blitz, So you know it might make

566
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:32,000
Speaker 5: Detroit make a decision here, do you want to kind

567
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:35,440
Speaker 5: of play left handed and not not send everybody and

568
00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:38,480
Speaker 5: kind of sit back and protect against s fielders's running,

569
00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:40,520
Speaker 5: or do you want to you know, play to your

570
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 5: your identity and risk him, you know, falling out.

571
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 4: So I think that's that's a good match up here

572
00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:53,280
Speaker 4: for fields. And this isn't just Detroit team. I said

573
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:55,800
Speaker 4: on this podcast, the defense has improved. We both talked

574
00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:56,200
Speaker 4: about it.

575
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 5: And then they come out last week in a game

576
00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 5: that they really could have used and gave up three

577
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:05,200
Speaker 5: hundred and twenty rushing yards to the Carolina Panthers eight

578
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 5: and a half yards per club Like it was absurd,

579
00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:13,640
Speaker 5: I mean not sorry club, And not only that, yeah,

580
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:16,040
Speaker 5: they give up, Yeah, the guards for play exactly, because

581
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:18,240
Speaker 5: not only do they give up three hundred and twenty

582
00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:21,840
Speaker 5: yards on the ground, they let Sam Donald get two

583
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 5: hundred and fifty passing yards on just twenty two attempts.

584
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:27,880
Speaker 5: So the average Sam Donald's averaging.

585
00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:30,040
Speaker 4: Over ten yards per past attempt last week.

586
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:33,680
Speaker 5: So you know, you want to call it reversion to

587
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 5: the meeting, because this defense was one of the week's

588
00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 5: worst over the first you know what seven eight games

589
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 5: of the year. Uh, But at this point, I don't

590
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:44,720
Speaker 5: think we can trust De Troy's defense. I know they're

591
00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:46,880
Speaker 5: at home, so I think their offense will be fine.

592
00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:50,640
Speaker 5: But again, I think Chicago can hang here because feels

593
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 5: good against the Boys.

594
00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:52,840
Speaker 4: It's Detroit deep.

595
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 5: Chicago could do some of what Carolina did in terms

596
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:57,960
Speaker 5: of game planning, except they have a much more explosive

597
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:00,960
Speaker 5: quarterback that adds a whole different element, you know, to that,

598
00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 5: because Detroit also has been one of the worst teams

599
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:07,640
Speaker 5: in the league against running quarterbacks. So you know, I

600
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:09,880
Speaker 5: think Chicago is going to be able to score points here.

601
00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:13,680
Speaker 5: And remember Chicago in Soldier Field had a twenty four

602
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:16,080
Speaker 5: to ten lead after three quarters in Week ten, So

603
00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:18,160
Speaker 5: that was after Detroit already kind of was on the

604
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:18,720
Speaker 5: up and up.

605
00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:22,160
Speaker 4: And Detroit ends up winning that game by one point.

606
00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 5: But you know, Detroit had just two penalties in that game,

607
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 5: Chicago had nine.

608
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:28,520
Speaker 4: Chicago still loses by one.

609
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:32,400
Speaker 5: Detroit had no turnovers in that game Chicago had won,

610
00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:36,560
Speaker 5: so and this could easily be a three to four

611
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:38,600
Speaker 5: point win for Detroit even if it is a win.

612
00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:41,640
Speaker 5: But I think Chicago's still playing hard here. They but

613
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:43,440
Speaker 5: you know they're not giving up on the season. They

614
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:46,080
Speaker 5: want Justin stields want does he wants the rushing record?

615
00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:48,680
Speaker 5: Iberfoth says he wants them to finish wearn how to

616
00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:51,240
Speaker 5: close games. You know, they were in it against Buffalo

617
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 5: and then it kind of the score got away late.

618
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:57,560
Speaker 5: So I think Chicago here is going to hang close

619
00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:00,000
Speaker 5: and we see this, you know beyond just the team

620
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:02,800
Speaker 5: face and elimination versus teams are nothing to play for,

621
00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:06,800
Speaker 5: just you know, team underdogs coming off a bad loss.

622
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 5: When you when you have an underdog coming off a

623
00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:13,160
Speaker 5: loss of twenty or more points since twenty seventeen, one away,

624
00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:18,480
Speaker 5: seventy and three sixty against the spread. So I like

625
00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:24,200
Speaker 5: the Chicago Bears for sixth year. I think it's another

626
00:31:24,200 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 5: one of those games that Chicago just hangs around, just

627
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:29,400
Speaker 5: like they did against Atlanta, just like they did against Miami.

628
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:32,520
Speaker 5: Uh just you know they've been in most of these

629
00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:35,479
Speaker 5: games this year with the you know, with the exception

630
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:39,040
Speaker 5: of a select few. So like Chicago in this spot

631
00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:39,920
Speaker 5: to get it done.

632
00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:43,800
Speaker 2: Plus six. Yeah, I love the Bears here. By the way,

633
00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:47,320
Speaker 2: Week sixteen Division road Dogs is six or more from

634
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 2: from two thousand to twenty twenty, the second to last

635
00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:53,760
Speaker 2: week the season, seventy three percent against the spread if

636
00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:56,479
Speaker 2: they have an under five hundred record. Again speaks to

637
00:31:56,520 --> 00:31:59,720
Speaker 2: the just the line that you're getting on, you know,

638
00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:03,200
Speaker 2: playing teams that the market proceeds is dead. But look

639
00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 2: if you look at the Lions all and all the

640
00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 2: lines of all the pressure of your team that's not

641
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 2: used to dealing with the pressure have to win. Bears

642
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:12,960
Speaker 2: can play loose. Bears were minus three at home last

643
00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:16,040
Speaker 2: month in that game you talked about, Now you're catching

644
00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 2: six and they should have won that game like they

645
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 2: But there was a that turnover you mentioned it was

646
00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 2: a pick six that flipped the whole game around. So

647
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:28,240
Speaker 2: not only were they lose the turner about a one nothing,

648
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:30,960
Speaker 2: it was a pick six. And if you look the Bears,

649
00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 2: I think it's a good spot to buy the Bears low.

650
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:34,720
Speaker 2: They were competitive in a lot of their losses this year.

651
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:36,920
Speaker 2: This is the stretch they're coming off of that they

652
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:38,640
Speaker 2: got brought up by the Jets. It was simmy and

653
00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:41,320
Speaker 2: against Mike White. Then they played the Packers, who they

654
00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:43,360
Speaker 2: should have beat like if you look statistically, they dominated

655
00:32:43,360 --> 00:32:46,520
Speaker 2: that game. Then they played the Eagles they covered against,

656
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:48,840
Speaker 2: and the Bills, though it's very tough stretch. And if

657
00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 2: you look at the Lions, like I thought their defense

658
00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:53,840
Speaker 2: was improving, I dug into the lines like their rundy's

659
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:57,640
Speaker 2: very bad still, and that's obviously what the Bears are

660
00:32:57,640 --> 00:32:58,840
Speaker 2: going to do here, and I think that they can

661
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 2: exploit that run dye. The Lion's defense also is allowing

662
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:05,800
Speaker 2: a touchdown or first down on seventy seven percent of series.

663
00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:08,760
Speaker 2: That's the highest percentage of the NFL. They're also allowing

664
00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:13,560
Speaker 2: the lowest forcing the lowest punt percentage in the NFL

665
00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:16,240
Speaker 2: at ten percent. And if we look, you know, everyone

666
00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 2: has kind of just fell in over the lines over

667
00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:22,480
Speaker 2: their last eight games six and two stretch. But over

668
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:24,960
Speaker 2: that time, if you dig in thirty first an EPA

669
00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:27,480
Speaker 2: per play on defense, if you remove turnovers, they were

670
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:31,480
Speaker 2: getting a bit lucky on turnovers, red zone special teams,

671
00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:34,360
Speaker 2: like look at that Jets game with their special teams plays.

672
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:37,920
Speaker 2: So yeah, they were getting fortunate defense. The defense is

673
00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:39,960
Speaker 2: still bad. This is too many points, great spot for

674
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:43,480
Speaker 2: the Bears. Wouldn't be shocked if Chicago pulls this off.

675
00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:47,760
Speaker 2: For my third pick of the week, seventeen Sunday six pack.

676
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:50,080
Speaker 2: I'm going with the Denver Broncos plus twelve and a

677
00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:54,520
Speaker 2: half against the Kansas City Chiefs. I played the Broncos

678
00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:56,480
Speaker 2: and look, now you're in a dead zone. I played

679
00:33:56,520 --> 00:33:59,240
Speaker 2: them thirteen and a half and thirteen you so, I

680
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:01,800
Speaker 2: FI think to thirteen out there, you might as well wait, like,

681
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:06,280
Speaker 2: it's not going to go down to ten. Eleven would

682
00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:08,160
Speaker 2: be semi important. It's not going to keep going down.

683
00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:10,399
Speaker 2: You wait to see if there's some late Chiefs money.

684
00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:14,759
Speaker 2: I think because thirteen is decently important, I don't think it

685
00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:17,280
Speaker 2: would ever get back up to fourteen. But I played

686
00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 2: the Broncos a couple of weeks ago when they were

687
00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:23,480
Speaker 2: catching eight and a half nine at home, and I

688
00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 2: think that this is a good spot to bat them

689
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 2: on the road against the Chiefs team that generally doesn't

690
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:32,440
Speaker 2: cover these big numbers, especially at home, and by the way,

691
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:35,480
Speaker 2: in the lower scoring environment this year, double digit favorites

692
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:37,920
Speaker 2: are eight and fifteen against the spread on the season.

693
00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:39,960
Speaker 2: That's the worst start for double digit favorites in the

694
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:44,560
Speaker 2: last twenty years. And look, the Broncos also got blown

695
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:47,720
Speaker 2: out last week, lost by thirty five, but thirty six

696
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:52,000
Speaker 2: to the Rams, gave up fifty plus. Just an absolute

697
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:54,440
Speaker 2: classic spot when you're betting the NFL, both of them combined.

698
00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:58,000
Speaker 2: Let's just look historically, lose by thirty five plus the

699
00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:02,080
Speaker 2: next week seventy four, forty one and five against the spread,

700
00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:05,200
Speaker 2: covering by about a field goal per game as an underdog,

701
00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:07,920
Speaker 2: he after you lose by thirty five plus fifty seven,

702
00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:11,279
Speaker 2: twenty six and five, covering by about three and a

703
00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:14,239
Speaker 2: half points per game, that sixty nine percent. Nice. How

704
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:17,000
Speaker 2: about as a double digit underdog after losing by thirty

705
00:35:17,000 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 2: five plus sixteen and three against the spread of the

706
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:23,240
Speaker 2: past twenty years, covering by ten points per game eighty

707
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 2: four percent. How About when you allow fifty plus sixty

708
00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:30,200
Speaker 2: one percent over the past twenty years. How about a

709
00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:34,560
Speaker 2: lose by thirty five plus and give up fifty eighteen

710
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:36,680
Speaker 2: and nine against the spread, covering by five points per

711
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:39,920
Speaker 2: game and as a dog seventy percent when both of

712
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:43,279
Speaker 2: those things happen. So look the de Broncos offense, I mean,

713
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:47,160
Speaker 2: last week was just an absolute embarrassing effort. Hackett got canned. Historically,

714
00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:49,200
Speaker 2: there's a little bump in the first week with a

715
00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:50,759
Speaker 2: new head coach. I don't think it can get any

716
00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:53,440
Speaker 2: can't get any worse without Hackett. I think he already

717
00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:56,799
Speaker 2: had lost the team. Russell Wilson, who's been horrific this year.

718
00:35:57,160 --> 00:36:00,280
Speaker 2: His only game where he looked competent was against these Chiefs,

719
00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:02,200
Speaker 2: and by the way, court and something didn't even play

720
00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 2: that game whole play in this game, Jerry Judy went off.

721
00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:08,959
Speaker 2: These two teams are familiar with each other. Divisional game

722
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:11,719
Speaker 2: late in the season. I think this is too many

723
00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:14,760
Speaker 2: points for a Broncos defense that played well every single

724
00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:18,680
Speaker 2: week up until last week, and I think they just

725
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:23,520
Speaker 2: had enough and things just just got out of control.

726
00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:26,800
Speaker 2: But this is a prideful unit. They're playing their rival

727
00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:29,799
Speaker 2: in Kansas City. I think they'll show up here. And

728
00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:33,080
Speaker 2: this is when you want to fade the Chiefs, and

729
00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:35,839
Speaker 2: you want to fade Mahomes when he's in by the way,

730
00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:39,160
Speaker 2: he's under five hundred against a spread at home, and

731
00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:42,680
Speaker 2: you know, as a favorite, not great when he's a

732
00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:46,800
Speaker 2: favor by over seven points. So I think Denvers defense

733
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:49,640
Speaker 2: shows up here. It's a classic spot to buy an

734
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:52,600
Speaker 2: NFL team after they got completely embarrassed in a divisional

735
00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:55,600
Speaker 2: game with a lower ish total. This is too many points.

736
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 5: To me me, what was one of the last things

737
00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:01,319
Speaker 5: I said on the podwast week They ain't Broncos d

738
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:01,560
Speaker 5: A C.

739
00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:03,160
Speaker 4: Baker bake yet.

740
00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:07,280
Speaker 2: Baked up one of my worst I had some Broncos

741
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:09,279
Speaker 2: probably my worst worst stat.

742
00:37:10,560 --> 00:37:12,759
Speaker 5: I told you man that you could just see it

743
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:15,680
Speaker 5: coming from a mile away, like just a meltdown on

744
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:17,520
Speaker 5: the West Coast in the game, and they just give

745
00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 5: no fucks about But now now, yeah, now I think

746
00:37:20,560 --> 00:37:21,680
Speaker 5: it's about pride.

747
00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:24,120
Speaker 4: I wish I knew more about this Rothsburg guy.

748
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:27,280
Speaker 5: I really it's kind of an odd uh odd choice

749
00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:28,319
Speaker 5: for the interim coach.

750
00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 4: But I guess I heard a Varo turned it down.

751
00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 5: Uh So, weird, weird stuff going on, But yeah, you

752
00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:36,800
Speaker 5: usually see teams like this bounce back and kind of

753
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:39,520
Speaker 5: keep it close. Uh for at least that first week

754
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:41,719
Speaker 5: after they after they fired their coach. And the Chiefs

755
00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:44,600
Speaker 5: really haven't been covering many of these numbers. Uh so,

756
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:46,400
Speaker 5: uh yeah, I don't disagree.

757
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:48,840
Speaker 2: It's this summers too high for I guess a Broncos

758
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 2: defense where you can give him a pass for one week.

759
00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:52,239
Speaker 2: This has been one of the best defenses in the

760
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:53,800
Speaker 2: league the entire season.

761
00:37:54,200 --> 00:37:58,400
Speaker 5: Yeah, all right, for my third in the sixth of

762
00:37:58,600 --> 00:38:02,359
Speaker 5: Raw of the Week seventeen six pack. I'm going with

763
00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:06,280
Speaker 5: the Pittsburgh Steelers plus two and a half at FANDUL,

764
00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:10,160
Speaker 5: the official sponsor of the Action Network podcast at the

765
00:38:10,239 --> 00:38:13,239
Speaker 5: Baltimore Ravens. See if you can get a three. I

766
00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:16,480
Speaker 5: think this number got steamed. But you know there are

767
00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:18,839
Speaker 5: some there were some threes sitting around. Maybe it'll get back,

768
00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:21,439
Speaker 5: maybe it won't, but don't doesn't look like we're gonna

769
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:24,520
Speaker 5: get Lamar Jackson here. And you know, this is a

770
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:28,359
Speaker 5: game that I just think when you look at the

771
00:38:28,400 --> 00:38:32,640
Speaker 5: history of these two teams, I almost blind back the

772
00:38:32,719 --> 00:38:38,640
Speaker 5: underdog in this matchup because if you go back Harball versus.

773
00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:40,840
Speaker 4: Tom Win, Pittsburgh.

774
00:38:40,400 --> 00:38:45,360
Speaker 5: Versus Baltimore, the underdog is twenty one five and three

775
00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:47,759
Speaker 5: against the spread, no matter if it's if Baltimore is

776
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:50,200
Speaker 5: the underdog or Pittsburgh gender whoever it is, the underdog

777
00:38:50,239 --> 00:38:52,919
Speaker 5: in the matchup is twenty one to five and three

778
00:38:53,360 --> 00:38:58,320
Speaker 5: eighty one percent the last ten games Pittsburgh versus Baltimore,

779
00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:03,880
Speaker 5: the underdog is ten and h against the spread. These

780
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:07,960
Speaker 5: are just close games. They're gonna be decided. Sometimes are

781
00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:10,480
Speaker 5: not even decided by a field goal. Sometimes it's you know,

782
00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:14,800
Speaker 5: a two point conversion at the end, a safety, something silly.

783
00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:17,839
Speaker 5: So this is the exact kind of game you're gonna

784
00:39:17,840 --> 00:39:22,319
Speaker 5: get that. The total is thirty five. Tyra Huntley, I

785
00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:25,960
Speaker 5: don't think he's going to play well against this defense

786
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 5: because when you look at Pittsburgh.

787
00:39:29,000 --> 00:39:30,319
Speaker 4: Blitz at the fourth highest rate.

788
00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:33,000
Speaker 5: Now that's what they've kind of kind of decided is

789
00:39:33,040 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 5: their identity. And Huntley is fiftieth to fifty one quarterbacks

790
00:39:38,520 --> 00:39:41,160
Speaker 5: in PFF grade against the blitz at thirty nine point

791
00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:45,239
Speaker 5: four minimum with a minimum of twenty blitz dropbacks. This year,

792
00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:48,960
Speaker 5: this Pittsburgh defense is up to twelfth and waited dva

793
00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:52,560
Speaker 5: SO and Huntley with average think it's one hundred and

794
00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:56,319
Speaker 5: fourteen pathing yards. So Baltimore, they're gonna have to run

795
00:39:56,360 --> 00:39:59,399
Speaker 5: the ball. But Pittsburgh defends the run very well. There's

796
00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:02,880
Speaker 5: seventh in a weighted run defense DVAA. They've been good

797
00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:04,840
Speaker 5: against the run a year, so I think it'll be

798
00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:05,720
Speaker 5: a struggle there.

799
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:07,640
Speaker 4: And on the.

800
00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:09,600
Speaker 5: Other side of the ball, Baltimore's defense has been great.

801
00:40:10,120 --> 00:40:12,920
Speaker 5: You're not gonna kind of make any bones about it.

802
00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:15,000
Speaker 5: Baltimore has been a one bet, one of the best

803
00:40:15,040 --> 00:40:19,520
Speaker 5: defenses in the league. But against a team like Pittsburgh win,

804
00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:21,760
Speaker 5: you're not gonna be able to run the ball as well.

805
00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:23,920
Speaker 5: When Huntley is not really going to be able to

806
00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:26,279
Speaker 5: do much against the Blitz. I think Pittsburgh can do

807
00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:31,480
Speaker 5: enough year with Kenny Pickett, uh, you know, Najie, Harris, Deonte,

808
00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:33,600
Speaker 5: all those guys. I think they'll get You know this,

809
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:37,200
Speaker 5: you could get fourteen sixteen points here and if not

810
00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:40,480
Speaker 5: win the game outright cover the spread. So I like

811
00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:44,760
Speaker 5: Pittsburgh here. I think they are a live dog. And Tomlin,

812
00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:47,239
Speaker 5: we know him. Any spots fifty and twenty seven you

813
00:40:47,320 --> 00:40:49,799
Speaker 5: can spread as a dog sixty five percent as a

814
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:52,160
Speaker 5: dog from October on, He's forty one, nineteen and two

815
00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:54,760
Speaker 5: sixty eight percent against the spread as a dog against

816
00:40:54,760 --> 00:40:57,960
Speaker 5: an opponent with a better record twenty six ten seventy

817
00:40:58,000 --> 00:41:01,080
Speaker 5: two percent against the spread. And you know Baltimore, they

818
00:41:01,080 --> 00:41:05,680
Speaker 5: did quinch a playoff spot. So you know, this is

819
00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:07,600
Speaker 5: just kind of one of these spots where I think

820
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:10,520
Speaker 5: Pittsburgh is going to come out a little more motivated.

821
00:41:10,560 --> 00:41:14,319
Speaker 5: Here curiously to hear your thoughts, because obviously you know

822
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:18,080
Speaker 5: the Ravens very well, But I like Pittsburgh in the spot,

823
00:41:18,560 --> 00:41:21,880
Speaker 5: I loved the dog almost indiscriminately in this matchup.

824
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:25,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would also probably look under again. I think

825
00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:28,160
Speaker 2: I said last week that the the Falcons we wouldn't

826
00:41:28,200 --> 00:41:30,480
Speaker 2: get to ten and it'll be like seventeen to nine,

827
00:41:30,600 --> 00:41:36,399
Speaker 2: and it was the Yeah, it's I thought. I don't

828
00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:39,320
Speaker 2: mind taking the points in this robbery, especially with Alamar Jackson.

829
00:41:39,880 --> 00:41:43,319
Speaker 2: But anytime these two teams play, if you take if

830
00:41:43,320 --> 00:41:45,960
Speaker 2: you took since Harball Arrive in Baltimore two thousand and eight,

831
00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:49,480
Speaker 2: if you took the underdog of three or more in

832
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:52,960
Speaker 2: this matchup, you would be seventeen to one and three

833
00:41:53,040 --> 00:41:58,000
Speaker 2: against the spread seventeen one and three. And if you

834
00:41:58,000 --> 00:42:00,680
Speaker 2: look at the games with Hunt Link at least played

835
00:42:00,719 --> 00:42:04,040
Speaker 2: four games with the Ravens. The Ravens games haven't gone

836
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:07,560
Speaker 2: past thirty total points average of twenty two points seventy five.

837
00:42:07,600 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 2: The scores have been ten to nine, sixteen to fourteen,

838
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:15,240
Speaker 2: thirteen to three, and seventeen to nine. And yeah, Steelers

839
00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:18,239
Speaker 2: defense playing really well. Both these teams haven't allowed more

840
00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:20,799
Speaker 2: than twenty points over the past four weeks, both run

841
00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:24,560
Speaker 2: heavy teams, both really good run defenses. Ravens run defense

842
00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:27,400
Speaker 2: been the best in the NFL since signing Roklwan Smith.

843
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:29,560
Speaker 2: You know you got Bowser, you got a bows into

844
00:42:29,560 --> 00:42:31,200
Speaker 2: the mix. You got Marcus Williams back. Now I doubt

845
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:33,719
Speaker 2: Peters or Campbell plays, Like the same reason why I

846
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:36,000
Speaker 2: don't think Lamar Jackson will play. It's just the Ravens

847
00:42:36,000 --> 00:42:40,759
Speaker 2: are in the playoffs already, and in a way, you know,

848
00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:42,680
Speaker 2: they might not even care about winning the division. Like,

849
00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:46,080
Speaker 2: you win the division, you're like hosting the Chargers, and

850
00:42:46,160 --> 00:42:49,920
Speaker 2: if you don't, you're going to the Jags or Titans

851
00:42:49,960 --> 00:42:52,040
Speaker 2: and the first round. So like, I what do you

852
00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:54,600
Speaker 2: I don't know. I might choose door two. Now, if

853
00:42:54,600 --> 00:42:58,200
Speaker 2: the Ravens lose this game, you might have the NFL

854
00:42:58,280 --> 00:43:03,040
Speaker 2: come in and bring in the Bills, refsh Night and Sincy.

855
00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:07,400
Speaker 2: So the Sincy Baltimore game, This determines the division next week.

856
00:43:07,680 --> 00:43:10,560
Speaker 2: But because if Ravens lose this game and the Bengals lose,

857
00:43:10,680 --> 00:43:14,880
Speaker 2: then the game next week still determines the division. But

858
00:43:14,920 --> 00:43:17,040
Speaker 2: if the Bengals win and Ravens lose in the Bengals

859
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:19,239
Speaker 2: win the division in that game means nothing next week.

860
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:21,080
Speaker 2: So they just want to make sure Lamar. You know,

861
00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 2: Peters Campbell and everyone are healthy for the playoffs. I

862
00:43:24,239 --> 00:43:26,080
Speaker 2: don't care about this game. It's prime time, it's against

863
00:43:26,080 --> 00:43:28,239
Speaker 2: their rival, but yeah, points will be at a premium here.

864
00:43:28,360 --> 00:43:30,400
Speaker 2: Steels Steve has been a different animal t J Watt.

865
00:43:30,680 --> 00:43:33,160
Speaker 2: I mean since drafting in twenty seventeen. They're fifty seven

866
00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:34,960
Speaker 2: to twenty six and two when he's in the lineup,

867
00:43:35,320 --> 00:43:37,719
Speaker 2: one in ten without him, over a yard per play

868
00:43:37,760 --> 00:43:40,759
Speaker 2: more when he's not on the field. So yeah, I

869
00:43:40,760 --> 00:43:43,319
Speaker 2: would try to get three. Obviously, I would even buy

870
00:43:43,520 --> 00:43:46,560
Speaker 2: buy it to three, up to minus one twenty five here,

871
00:43:47,920 --> 00:43:50,520
Speaker 2: just because points are going to be at such a premium,

872
00:43:50,719 --> 00:43:52,520
Speaker 2: and there's a really good chance that sends it one

873
00:43:52,520 --> 00:43:56,040
Speaker 2: to two or three, but for the sake of its contest,

874
00:43:56,080 --> 00:43:59,400
Speaker 2: that doesn't matter. But yeah, I don't mind taking the

875
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:02,320
Speaker 2: points here. And there's even like an illness going around

876
00:44:02,400 --> 00:44:04,920
Speaker 2: with the Ravens now but they just gets it's hontly

877
00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:06,440
Speaker 2: and there's no receivers.

878
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:10,759
Speaker 5: Yeah, and in the last good Yeah, I was gonna

879
00:44:10,800 --> 00:44:13,320
Speaker 5: say in the last matchup. You know, they played a

880
00:44:13,360 --> 00:44:15,400
Speaker 5: couple weeks ago and obviously Hunt we went down for

881
00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:19,320
Speaker 5: part of that game, but the Ravens ended up winning

882
00:44:19,360 --> 00:44:26,920
Speaker 5: sixteen fourteen, but the Steelers turned it over three times.

883
00:44:27,520 --> 00:44:27,759
Speaker 4: Yeah.

884
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:30,600
Speaker 5: Well, Kenny Pickett has thrown one pick over his last

885
00:44:30,600 --> 00:44:34,120
Speaker 5: five starts that he finished, so can you Pickett? The

886
00:44:34,120 --> 00:44:36,799
Speaker 5: one thing he has been doing better is taking care

887
00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:39,239
Speaker 5: of the football. And you know, if you do that

888
00:44:39,320 --> 00:44:42,040
Speaker 5: against in this kind of game, you know, Pittsburgh out

889
00:44:42,040 --> 00:44:44,399
Speaker 5: gained them last time. You know, I think Pittsburgh can.

890
00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:45,880
Speaker 5: I think Pittsburgh can get the win here. And like

891
00:44:45,880 --> 00:44:48,360
Speaker 5: you said, yeah, I don't know if Baltimore fully is

892
00:44:48,440 --> 00:44:51,200
Speaker 5: fully invested. Obviously they're not going to just hank it,

893
00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:55,719
Speaker 5: but uh yeah, like Pittsburgh here. All right, that is

894
00:44:55,760 --> 00:44:59,040
Speaker 5: going to wrap up the week sixteen SNY six pack.

895
00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:03,520
Speaker 5: Duck is going Jets minus one and a half, Coats

896
00:45:03,640 --> 00:45:08,520
Speaker 5: plus five and a half, and Broncos plus twelve and

897
00:45:08,560 --> 00:45:11,480
Speaker 5: a half. I'm going with the Saints plus sixty, Bears

898
00:45:11,520 --> 00:45:15,160
Speaker 5: plus five and a half in the Heelers plus two

899
00:45:15,200 --> 00:45:17,920
Speaker 5: and a half. So we got some Michael, I got.

900
00:45:17,760 --> 00:45:21,080
Speaker 2: Mike White, falls and Russell Wilson. Mike White's the best

901
00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:22,080
Speaker 2: quarterback in that group.

902
00:45:22,520 --> 00:45:25,680
Speaker 5: Yeah yeah, I mean I got oh, I got Fields,

903
00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:27,920
Speaker 5: Dalton and Pickets, So yeah, I got Fields.

904
00:45:27,800 --> 00:45:31,640
Speaker 4: It's the best quarterback in that yayh yeah, uh yeah.

905
00:45:31,520 --> 00:45:34,719
Speaker 5: This is uh, this is week seventeen. So let's get

906
00:45:34,760 --> 00:45:36,399
Speaker 5: into our coaches pep talk.

907
00:45:37,080 --> 00:45:39,000
Speaker 2: Every time we get ready to play, I just want

908
00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:39,560
Speaker 2: to throw up.

909
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:41,680
Speaker 4: I'm sick I'm watching you guys play.

910
00:45:41,880 --> 00:45:44,520
Speaker 5: This week's coaches pep talk comes to us from Rocky

911
00:45:44,600 --> 00:45:48,880
Speaker 5: bell Boa in the nineteen eighty five film Rocky four.

912
00:45:49,480 --> 00:45:54,000
Speaker 5: And uh, we got to dedicate this one to I

913
00:45:54,000 --> 00:45:57,360
Speaker 5: think got dedicated to Rothsberg Man. Give Denver something to

914
00:45:57,760 --> 00:46:00,480
Speaker 5: smile about, even if it's just a cover. To keep

915
00:46:00,520 --> 00:46:03,120
Speaker 5: dedicating it to these to these these coaches, and they

916
00:46:03,160 --> 00:46:06,000
Speaker 5: keep covering. So let's go with Rothberg year and get

917
00:46:06,080 --> 00:46:07,080
Speaker 5: us a cover for the pod.

918
00:46:08,160 --> 00:46:10,960
Speaker 3: I came here tonight. I didn't know what to expect.

919
00:46:11,600 --> 00:46:16,440
Speaker 3: I seen a lot of people hating me, and I

920
00:46:16,480 --> 00:46:21,040
Speaker 3: didn't know what to feel about that. So I guess

921
00:46:21,040 --> 00:46:25,440
Speaker 3: I didn't like you much. Note either, during this fight,

922
00:46:26,520 --> 00:46:30,400
Speaker 3: I've seen a lot of changing. The way you've felt

923
00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:34,680
Speaker 3: about me and the way I felt about you.

924
00:46:34,880 --> 00:46:36,719
Speaker 2: What else? Trying to say this?

925
00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:43,840
Speaker 3: If I can change and you can change, everybody can change.

926
00:46:46,000 --> 00:46:51,160
Speaker 4: All right, let's get into our favorite total of the week.

927
00:46:51,760 --> 00:46:56,040
Speaker 5: All right, for my total Uh, what soul disclosure was

928
00:46:56,120 --> 00:47:01,360
Speaker 5: gonna go Tampa Carolina. But recording this on Wednesday, and

929
00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:05,239
Speaker 5: there seems like there's a lot of guys eden that

930
00:47:05,880 --> 00:47:08,160
Speaker 5: would help the total go over and the guys that

931
00:47:08,200 --> 00:47:10,600
Speaker 5: are out would help it go over as well. Like

932
00:47:10,920 --> 00:47:15,000
Speaker 5: you know, obviously JC Horn is gonna miss and Veyas

933
00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:18,440
Speaker 5: might miss, but you have Lineman getting healthier for Tampa.

934
00:47:18,520 --> 00:47:23,200
Speaker 5: So I'm gonna go with the Rams Chargers under forty

935
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:27,239
Speaker 5: one instead. This Charger defense is really started to lock

936
00:47:27,320 --> 00:47:30,760
Speaker 5: in over these last three weeks. Twenty three to fifteen

937
00:47:30,840 --> 00:47:33,799
Speaker 5: against Miami in a game where you got Tyreek Hill,

938
00:47:33,880 --> 00:47:37,680
Speaker 5: We're trying to fumble like seventy yards for touchdown on offense,

939
00:47:37,840 --> 00:47:41,960
Speaker 5: and you still give up fifteen points to Miami, seventeen

940
00:47:42,040 --> 00:47:46,960
Speaker 5: fourteen against Tennessee, twenty to three against the Indianapolis Coats,

941
00:47:47,200 --> 00:47:49,960
Speaker 5: and I think we're getting probably a little bit of

942
00:47:50,040 --> 00:47:52,840
Speaker 5: inflation here. Obviously you have to upgrade the Rams a

943
00:47:52,840 --> 00:47:54,719
Speaker 5: little bit after what they did to the Broncos, but

944
00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:58,719
Speaker 5: I think this is a letdown spot here against this

945
00:47:58,880 --> 00:48:03,359
Speaker 5: Charger defense. They can man up Broncos, one thing about them,

946
00:48:03,920 --> 00:48:06,839
Speaker 5: talented defense, but they play a lot of zone. Uh,

947
00:48:07,040 --> 00:48:10,760
Speaker 5: Chargers can man up here, I think with this Rams offense.

948
00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:12,919
Speaker 4: I mean, you're down all your receivers, you're.

949
00:48:12,800 --> 00:48:17,960
Speaker 5: Starting at well and Van Jefferson with Brandon Powell's your

950
00:48:18,000 --> 00:48:22,440
Speaker 5: third h So it's rough out here and I think

951
00:48:22,480 --> 00:48:24,480
Speaker 5: cam Akers will still get his though They're gonna have

952
00:48:24,520 --> 00:48:26,520
Speaker 5: to win on cam Akers, but that will weave the clock.

953
00:48:26,880 --> 00:48:30,520
Speaker 5: And on the other side, this Rams defense just loves

954
00:48:30,520 --> 00:48:31,920
Speaker 5: to play zone.

955
00:48:32,040 --> 00:48:34,640
Speaker 4: They play zone at a top three rate, and.

956
00:48:34,760 --> 00:48:38,759
Speaker 5: That the Chargers, you know, justin Herbert is obviously great,

957
00:48:39,040 --> 00:48:42,040
Speaker 5: but zone defense kind of just flows down the Chargers.

958
00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:44,520
Speaker 5: They'll have they have to kind of methodically drive down

959
00:48:44,560 --> 00:48:49,280
Speaker 5: the field. They're averaging almost a yard per target less

960
00:48:49,320 --> 00:48:51,080
Speaker 5: against zone than they are against men.

961
00:48:51,239 --> 00:48:53,040
Speaker 4: And we kind of saw that play out against.

962
00:48:52,719 --> 00:48:55,920
Speaker 5: The Colts where it's just, you know, the Chargers dominated

963
00:48:55,920 --> 00:48:59,480
Speaker 5: the game, but the scoreboard didn't look that crazy at

964
00:48:59,520 --> 00:49:01,799
Speaker 5: the end of the day. And I think you're gonna

965
00:49:01,800 --> 00:49:05,640
Speaker 5: seek a similar result here in this one. So give

966
00:49:05,719 --> 00:49:09,680
Speaker 5: me Rams Chargers under forty one.

967
00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:12,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, ill more on this game later, but we can

968
00:49:12,640 --> 00:49:16,840
Speaker 2: let's cross off the that Panthers Bucks game because I

969
00:49:16,840 --> 00:49:18,240
Speaker 2: just want to talk about this. By the way, Brady's

970
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:21,160
Speaker 2: won eleven and one against the spread past thirteen games.

971
00:49:21,600 --> 00:49:23,360
Speaker 2: If the Bucks don't go too and zero against the

972
00:49:23,360 --> 00:49:27,760
Speaker 2: spread to close the season, Brady will have the least

973
00:49:27,960 --> 00:49:31,920
Speaker 2: profitable single season for starting quarterback over the past twenty years.

974
00:49:32,320 --> 00:49:36,680
Speaker 2: Now quarterback will have been less profitable in one season

975
00:49:36,960 --> 00:49:40,759
Speaker 2: from the from the fucking go cover the guy who

976
00:49:40,840 --> 00:49:45,000
Speaker 2: was all seventy percent. Maybe it's the It's Brady regression.

977
00:49:45,040 --> 00:49:47,640
Speaker 2: Father Time is undefeated though the Bucks. Tackle injuries are

978
00:49:47,640 --> 00:49:50,120
Speaker 2: big here though, but yeah, there's there's defensive injuries. Keep

979
00:49:50,160 --> 00:49:51,879
Speaker 2: an eye on. I was looking at that under two

980
00:49:52,440 --> 00:49:55,120
Speaker 2: but got a weird feeling about it. But can we

981
00:49:55,160 --> 00:49:58,200
Speaker 2: talk about what? Also? What? What do we have to

982
00:49:58,200 --> 00:50:02,040
Speaker 2: talk about Sam Darnold. Out of forty seven quarterbacks with

983
00:50:02,120 --> 00:50:05,440
Speaker 2: at least one hundred snaps this year, Sam Donald is

984
00:50:05,960 --> 00:50:11,160
Speaker 2: number one in EPA plus completion percentage over expectation composite.

985
00:50:11,280 --> 00:50:16,759
Speaker 2: He's tied with Mahomes in adjusted EPA per play. What

986
00:50:16,920 --> 00:50:17,480
Speaker 2: is going on?

987
00:50:18,040 --> 00:50:21,600
Speaker 6: He's played, he's played for, He's played some bad defenses,

988
00:50:21,680 --> 00:50:25,719
Speaker 6: but he's also played the Broncos and who else and

989
00:50:25,760 --> 00:50:28,959
Speaker 6: the Steelers in two of his four games, he's number

990
00:50:29,040 --> 00:50:31,600
Speaker 6: one and adjusted EPA for play it's a small sample,

991
00:50:31,680 --> 00:50:32,400
Speaker 6: it's four games.

992
00:50:32,840 --> 00:50:36,520
Speaker 2: Is Sam Donald back? This would be so Jets that like, yeah,

993
00:50:36,680 --> 00:50:39,920
Speaker 2: it's Mike. I mean, Zach Wilson's gonna go somewhere and be.

994
00:50:39,880 --> 00:50:40,680
Speaker 4: In all exactly.

995
00:50:40,760 --> 00:50:43,440
Speaker 5: I was about to say, it's like, did Jets have

996
00:50:43,480 --> 00:50:47,319
Speaker 5: a bust that quarterback? Meanwhile other old quarterbacks that were like,

997
00:50:47,360 --> 00:50:50,520
Speaker 5: we're written off his bus are now doing well.

998
00:50:50,640 --> 00:50:55,319
Speaker 2: So yeah, but yeah that if Donald looks really good

999
00:50:55,480 --> 00:50:58,520
Speaker 2: this week against the Bucks day because you're not really

1000
00:50:58,520 --> 00:51:01,840
Speaker 2: going to be able to lean on the run against Tampa.

1001
00:51:02,280 --> 00:51:05,200
Speaker 2: So if if Donald goes out there and wins this

1002
00:51:05,280 --> 00:51:07,919
Speaker 2: game with his arm, I'm gonna have to dig into

1003
00:51:07,960 --> 00:51:11,640
Speaker 2: this and this Sam Donald being back narrative. And because

1004
00:51:11,640 --> 00:51:13,200
Speaker 2: he's number one, and I was looking at that, I

1005
00:51:13,280 --> 00:51:15,640
Speaker 2: was like, Sam Donald is number one, and the Justed

1006
00:51:15,680 --> 00:51:18,600
Speaker 2: epap player it's tied with Mahomes. Basically, it's like it's

1007
00:51:18,600 --> 00:51:22,480
Speaker 2: like one hundreds of a point difference. It's crazy. All right.

1008
00:51:22,480 --> 00:51:26,440
Speaker 2: For my total, I'm gonna go with the Miami Dolphins

1009
00:51:26,880 --> 00:51:30,840
Speaker 2: New England Patriots under forty one and a half for

1010
00:51:30,920 --> 00:51:33,280
Speaker 2: what it's worth. Outdoor divisional unders this year, we always

1011
00:51:33,280 --> 00:51:36,359
Speaker 2: talk about them, especially late in the year thirty three

1012
00:51:36,480 --> 00:51:39,479
Speaker 2: fifteen and one against to the under this year, that's

1013
00:51:39,520 --> 00:51:43,680
Speaker 2: sixty eight point eight percent. There's a couple of reasons

1014
00:51:43,680 --> 00:51:45,919
Speaker 2: why I like this under, in particular, two is out,

1015
00:51:46,200 --> 00:51:50,000
Speaker 2: so just think of slight down grade to Teddy Bridgewater.

1016
00:51:50,560 --> 00:51:52,640
Speaker 2: And then the Dolphins offense. The league has just kind

1017
00:51:52,640 --> 00:51:54,040
Speaker 2: of figure them out. I mean, if you just look

1018
00:51:54,080 --> 00:51:56,680
Speaker 2: at to his numbers week one through twelve, first in

1019
00:51:56,719 --> 00:51:59,719
Speaker 2: the NFL and e paper play by a mile weeks

1020
00:51:59,760 --> 00:52:03,640
Speaker 2: third team through sixteen, dead last, dead last out of

1021
00:52:03,640 --> 00:52:07,160
Speaker 2: every single quarterback over the past four weeks. And the

1022
00:52:07,200 --> 00:52:10,959
Speaker 2: Patriots offense is a mess, right, and they were really

1023
00:52:11,120 --> 00:52:13,719
Speaker 2: the Miami's defense. Let's look Miami's defense. They could stop

1024
00:52:13,719 --> 00:52:16,200
Speaker 2: the run, which is good. Here against New England, they're

1025
00:52:16,239 --> 00:52:19,080
Speaker 2: a mess in the secondary, but that's not something New

1026
00:52:19,120 --> 00:52:20,719
Speaker 2: England is going to take advantage of it. And the

1027
00:52:20,719 --> 00:52:23,160
Speaker 2: New England offense just a mess from a play calling standpoint.

1028
00:52:23,800 --> 00:52:26,319
Speaker 2: And what is Miami also going to do? They're gonna

1029
00:52:26,320 --> 00:52:30,760
Speaker 2: blitz and mac Jones has been a disaster against the blitz.

1030
00:52:30,800 --> 00:52:32,879
Speaker 2: A fifty six passer right against the blitz. That's dead

1031
00:52:32,960 --> 00:52:36,320
Speaker 2: last in the NFL. The next worst is Zach Wilson

1032
00:52:36,440 --> 00:52:39,680
Speaker 2: at seventy two. That's how much worse he's been. He's

1033
00:52:39,680 --> 00:52:41,440
Speaker 2: also dead last a fifty eight point nine percent of

1034
00:52:41,520 --> 00:52:43,600
Speaker 2: just a completion percentage against the Blitz. Mariota is the

1035
00:52:43,600 --> 00:52:47,960
Speaker 2: next worst at sixty five. So Mac Jones and these

1036
00:52:48,000 --> 00:52:50,440
Speaker 2: receivers with the Blitz are not going to take advantage

1037
00:52:50,480 --> 00:52:53,239
Speaker 2: of the holes in the Miami secondary. Also, this is

1038
00:52:53,280 --> 00:52:55,799
Speaker 2: a huge game for both teams. I expect them to

1039
00:52:55,800 --> 00:52:58,680
Speaker 2: play a little conservative. You have a backup quarterback in here.

1040
00:52:59,560 --> 00:53:02,880
Speaker 2: Patriot defense I think can cause some havoc in the backfield,

1041
00:53:02,880 --> 00:53:05,239
Speaker 2: and I think this will. I mean, you saw mac

1042
00:53:05,280 --> 00:53:08,280
Speaker 2: Jones and the opener. You saw the Dolphins offense pretty

1043
00:53:08,320 --> 00:53:10,799
Speaker 2: much get contained in that opening week, So I think

1044
00:53:10,840 --> 00:53:12,960
Speaker 2: the pages of a good defensive game plan, their offense

1045
00:53:13,000 --> 00:53:16,120
Speaker 2: will remain a mess. This one stays lower scoring outdoors

1046
00:53:16,160 --> 00:53:18,880
Speaker 2: divisional rematch, a lot on the line. This ends like

1047
00:53:19,239 --> 00:53:20,280
Speaker 2: twenty to seventeen.

1048
00:53:21,960 --> 00:53:24,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean this is Teddy Bridge Water against Mac Jones.

1049
00:53:24,160 --> 00:53:27,160
Speaker 4: Wait in the year. Not great?

1050
00:53:28,200 --> 00:53:32,440
Speaker 5: All right, that's that's our totals. Duck has the Dolphins

1051
00:53:32,480 --> 00:53:34,000
Speaker 5: Pats under forty one and a half. I got the

1052
00:53:34,080 --> 00:53:37,799
Speaker 5: Chargers Rams under forty one. Now it's time for our

1053
00:53:37,840 --> 00:53:39,120
Speaker 5: favorite teaser.

1054
00:53:38,920 --> 00:53:39,359
Speaker 2: Of the week.

1055
00:53:40,719 --> 00:53:43,879
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

1056
00:53:47,719 --> 00:53:58,320
Speaker 4: Chase, don't tease me please, all right, we're going stuck

1057
00:53:58,440 --> 00:53:59,920
Speaker 4: for week seventeen.

1058
00:54:00,680 --> 00:54:05,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's go Browns against Wentz. Will tease them up

1059
00:54:05,200 --> 00:54:08,640
Speaker 2: over a touchdown. Deshaun Watson hasn't been great, but you

1060
00:54:08,719 --> 00:54:11,080
Speaker 2: got to remember, like he's been. His preseason's basically over

1061
00:54:11,120 --> 00:54:14,880
Speaker 2: now and he's played in like hurricanes, so the conditions

1062
00:54:15,200 --> 00:54:19,239
Speaker 2: obviously haven't helped. And you're asking this Washington team with

1063
00:54:19,320 --> 00:54:20,920
Speaker 2: Wentz at the helm, it should be able to run

1064
00:54:20,920 --> 00:54:22,520
Speaker 2: the ball a little bit, but the win by more

1065
00:54:22,560 --> 00:54:24,760
Speaker 2: than a touchdown in a very low scoring game. Classic

1066
00:54:24,800 --> 00:54:27,880
Speaker 2: teaser piece here with the Browns. And then I'm going

1067
00:54:27,960 --> 00:54:31,160
Speaker 2: to tease the Chargers down. Not going through the seven here,

1068
00:54:31,160 --> 00:54:33,880
Speaker 2: but I make the line over seven and they should

1069
00:54:33,920 --> 00:54:36,040
Speaker 2: get the win here. You mentioned it with their defense.

1070
00:54:36,120 --> 00:54:39,840
Speaker 2: That is what makes the Chargers a serious contender in

1071
00:54:39,920 --> 00:54:43,480
Speaker 2: the AFC and a team that no division winner, right,

1072
00:54:43,520 --> 00:54:46,360
Speaker 2: like the winner of the AFC North, like the Bengals,

1073
00:54:46,360 --> 00:54:48,920
Speaker 2: how good they've been, they have to play the Chargers

1074
00:54:48,960 --> 00:54:52,080
Speaker 2: in the first round. That's a brutal reward for winning

1075
00:54:52,080 --> 00:54:55,120
Speaker 2: the division because the Chargers are now getting healthier receiver

1076
00:54:55,760 --> 00:54:58,560
Speaker 2: and by the Rams don't too much pressure, and the

1077
00:54:58,640 --> 00:55:00,799
Speaker 2: Chargers should win this game at home. They'll probably win

1078
00:55:00,840 --> 00:55:03,080
Speaker 2: it by like three though, like they'll find a way

1079
00:55:03,120 --> 00:55:04,720
Speaker 2: to keep this close, which is why I like teasing

1080
00:55:04,760 --> 00:55:07,719
Speaker 2: the Chargers. But you have to keep in mind that

1081
00:55:07,760 --> 00:55:10,520
Speaker 2: the why the Chargers are threaten now is their defense.

1082
00:55:10,719 --> 00:55:12,799
Speaker 2: And we'll talk about it more when they play more

1083
00:55:12,800 --> 00:55:17,799
Speaker 2: meaningful games about the whys, but we'll just call it

1084
00:55:17,880 --> 00:55:23,840
Speaker 2: for now the Tillery effect. And since it's not all that,

1085
00:55:24,000 --> 00:55:27,160
Speaker 2: but since releasing you know, from weeks one to seven

1086
00:55:27,320 --> 00:55:31,280
Speaker 2: with Jerry Tillery playing, they were twenty ninth at EPA

1087
00:55:31,360 --> 00:55:34,520
Speaker 2: per play. Since they released him, they are tenth in

1088
00:55:34,640 --> 00:55:37,239
Speaker 2: EPA per play. They played some bad offenses and some

1089
00:55:37,400 --> 00:55:40,960
Speaker 2: really good offenses, so their defense is playing really well.

1090
00:55:41,000 --> 00:55:44,239
Speaker 2: Stalley has them cooking. That's what makes the Chargers really

1091
00:55:44,360 --> 00:55:46,759
Speaker 2: dangerous here. But yeah, give me the Charterers to win

1092
00:55:46,800 --> 00:55:50,360
Speaker 2: the game and the Browns to keep a low what

1093
00:55:50,400 --> 00:55:53,080
Speaker 2: should be a low scoring game within a touchdown. And

1094
00:55:53,120 --> 00:55:57,040
Speaker 2: by the way, the Browns Washington game also fits the

1095
00:55:57,040 --> 00:55:59,439
Speaker 2: theme and it fits the mold of what we talked

1096
00:55:59,440 --> 00:56:03,759
Speaker 2: about early in Washington needs to win Brown's playing for

1097
00:56:03,840 --> 00:56:06,520
Speaker 2: nothing a lot of times. You also like Washington will

1098
00:56:06,560 --> 00:56:12,200
Speaker 2: play tighter, Browns could play loose here, and yeah, so

1099
00:56:13,040 --> 00:56:14,960
Speaker 2: I think that there's some also, there's some value in

1100
00:56:15,000 --> 00:56:18,560
Speaker 2: that line going up against Wentz. And yeah, let's go

1101
00:56:18,640 --> 00:56:20,560
Speaker 2: Browns Chargers.

1102
00:56:20,920 --> 00:56:22,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like the Browns as well.

1103
00:56:22,040 --> 00:56:24,439
Speaker 5: Washington has won only two games by more than six

1104
00:56:24,480 --> 00:56:26,279
Speaker 5: points out of their seven wins, So that means out

1105
00:56:26,280 --> 00:56:28,680
Speaker 5: of fifteen games they played, only twice have they won

1106
00:56:29,280 --> 00:56:32,600
Speaker 5: by more than six points, none of those games with

1107
00:56:32,760 --> 00:56:36,280
Speaker 5: Carson Wentz as the starter. So I do think Cleveland

1108
00:56:36,360 --> 00:56:39,399
Speaker 5: keeps it close. And I had I'll throw Pittsburgh in here.

1109
00:56:39,440 --> 00:56:42,320
Speaker 5: Plus eight and a half as well. Already talked about

1110
00:56:42,360 --> 00:56:45,600
Speaker 5: the dog in this matchup twenty one and five, you know,

1111
00:56:45,719 --> 00:56:48,440
Speaker 5: in the Tom Win Harbaugh era, So teasing it up,

1112
00:56:48,480 --> 00:56:50,360
Speaker 5: I mean, I don't have the exact numbers, but it

1113
00:56:50,400 --> 00:56:54,960
Speaker 5: probably makes it pretty much undefeated. So we'll go Browns

1114
00:56:55,280 --> 00:56:58,320
Speaker 5: and the Steelers plus seven and a half and plus

1115
00:56:58,360 --> 00:57:01,759
Speaker 5: eight and a half. You got the Chargers minus at

1116
00:57:01,760 --> 00:57:04,320
Speaker 5: half point in the rounds. Plus seven and a half.

1117
00:57:05,000 --> 00:57:07,359
Speaker 5: That's gonna wrap it for it, teasers. Let's get into

1118
00:57:07,400 --> 00:57:09,600
Speaker 5: our money wine underdog parlay.

1119
00:57:12,400 --> 00:57:17,320
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1120
00:57:17,480 --> 00:57:18,800
Speaker 1: money line parlay.

1121
00:57:19,840 --> 00:57:22,200
Speaker 4: All right, stuck, you hit your tenth one of the

1122
00:57:22,280 --> 00:57:25,160
Speaker 4: year the Saints.

1123
00:57:25,480 --> 00:57:30,360
Speaker 5: I hit my sixth with the Rams, but we did

1124
00:57:30,440 --> 00:57:32,480
Speaker 5: hit the parways, So let's keep it going.

1125
00:57:32,480 --> 00:57:33,720
Speaker 4: Where you're going this week?

1126
00:57:34,000 --> 00:57:36,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, sixteen or thirty two on the ear So that's

1127
00:57:36,240 --> 00:57:38,600
Speaker 2: really good. It's been a great year for the pod

1128
00:57:38,680 --> 00:57:41,120
Speaker 2: Let's keep it rolling. I was gonna go with the Raiders,

1129
00:57:41,160 --> 00:57:44,440
Speaker 2: but they benched Car. I don't know, they still have

1130
00:57:44,440 --> 00:57:48,000
Speaker 2: a playoff. They stole playoff hopes. Now it's like one percent,

1131
00:57:48,560 --> 00:57:50,480
Speaker 2: but like last year they were like one percent with

1132
00:57:50,520 --> 00:57:52,760
Speaker 2: a couple of weeks ago. So going with Jared Sidham.

1133
00:57:52,960 --> 00:57:54,920
Speaker 2: I don't think Car has been the problem. I mean

1134
00:57:55,000 --> 00:57:58,360
Speaker 2: he hasn't been great, But like you stole playoff hopes,

1135
00:57:58,360 --> 00:58:00,440
Speaker 2: you're not gonna go with your starting quarterback. I think this.

1136
00:58:01,000 --> 00:58:02,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think because they can't.

1137
00:58:02,240 --> 00:58:04,240
Speaker 5: They can't get rid of him, Like if he gets injured,

1138
00:58:04,240 --> 00:58:05,560
Speaker 5: they have to pay him like forty million.

1139
00:58:05,600 --> 00:58:08,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, so said he's done, Like he's done it.

1140
00:58:08,600 --> 00:58:12,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, pating the way for the divorce, right, Like there's

1141
00:58:12,640 --> 00:58:17,040
Speaker 2: Brady to Vegas. I don't know Brady behind that offensive

1142
00:58:17,080 --> 00:58:19,080
Speaker 2: line next year, I don't want to see that Brady's

1143
00:58:19,080 --> 00:58:20,600
Speaker 2: gonna end up like if he keeps playing, he's gonna

1144
00:58:20,680 --> 00:58:23,560
Speaker 2: end up like five hundred against the spread for his

1145
00:58:23,640 --> 00:58:29,280
Speaker 2: career after being like seventy percent for eighteen years. Anyway,

1146
00:58:29,360 --> 00:58:33,200
Speaker 2: so let's go. Let's I was gonna go with yours,

1147
00:58:33,280 --> 00:58:36,200
Speaker 2: but you took mine. So that's a good sign that

1148
00:58:36,760 --> 00:58:40,040
Speaker 2: has that been hot on these Yeah, exactly, I'm gonna

1149
00:58:40,040 --> 00:58:44,080
Speaker 2: go with the Cardinals. It's I don't feel passionate about it,

1150
00:58:44,120 --> 00:58:48,959
Speaker 2: but it's it's it's road dog, Cliff. But it's also

1151
00:58:49,040 --> 00:58:51,680
Speaker 2: late season Cliff. But there's some variants here because it's

1152
00:58:51,680 --> 00:58:53,480
Speaker 2: des been ridder. Now he just could to go home

1153
00:58:53,520 --> 00:58:56,200
Speaker 2: here after playing the Saints and Raven's two good defenses

1154
00:58:56,200 --> 00:58:57,600
Speaker 2: that are playing really well on the road. So you

1155
00:58:57,800 --> 00:59:00,440
Speaker 2: think that, you know, now playing the Cardinals, Baker just

1156
00:59:00,440 --> 00:59:03,600
Speaker 2: went on ir too. Should be a little bit more

1157
00:59:03,600 --> 00:59:08,040
Speaker 2: comfortable in the Dome. But you know, he hasn't looked great,

1158
00:59:08,080 --> 00:59:10,479
Speaker 2: so there's a chance here he's just really really bad.

1159
00:59:11,000 --> 00:59:13,040
Speaker 2: Colet McCoy's going to get the start, which is an

1160
00:59:13,120 --> 00:59:18,240
Speaker 2: upgrade over traces early. I think not much, but the

1161
00:59:18,680 --> 00:59:21,160
Speaker 2: one thing that scares me in this because I do

1162
00:59:21,240 --> 00:59:24,640
Speaker 2: think that there's some value in the line, and again

1163
00:59:24,680 --> 00:59:26,880
Speaker 2: the Falcons. The Falcons are like a one percent chance

1164
00:59:26,880 --> 00:59:29,840
Speaker 2: to the playoffs. I don't even know if it fits

1165
00:59:29,840 --> 00:59:32,200
Speaker 2: the team, but the Cardinals aren't playing for anything, and

1166
00:59:32,240 --> 00:59:35,160
Speaker 2: the good thing is for their quarterback. Here the Cardinals

1167
00:59:35,200 --> 00:59:38,320
Speaker 2: have been Their offensive line is a disaster and they

1168
00:59:38,360 --> 00:59:40,200
Speaker 2: can't do anything even though they have talented pieces on

1169
00:59:40,240 --> 00:59:43,400
Speaker 2: the outside except through it to my to just get

1170
00:59:43,440 --> 00:59:45,000
Speaker 2: it out to my guy, Greg Dortsch, who had like

1171
00:59:45,000 --> 00:59:47,280
Speaker 2: thirty catches last week, the.

1172
00:59:47,280 --> 00:59:49,800
Speaker 1: Most electrifying player in football.

1173
00:59:50,360 --> 00:59:51,920
Speaker 4: Guess who Greg Torch.

1174
00:59:52,400 --> 00:59:57,760
Speaker 2: He's got torch? Why open torch? The individual ever.

1175
00:59:57,680 --> 01:00:03,080
Speaker 1: Got Greg Torch time to get torched with Greg George.

1176
01:00:04,040 --> 01:00:06,840
Speaker 2: But the Falcons get no pressure, so like Cole McCoy

1177
01:00:07,280 --> 01:00:08,960
Speaker 2: will be in you know, they can't defend the run,

1178
01:00:09,040 --> 01:00:11,640
Speaker 2: so like Connor will be able to get his and

1179
01:00:11,920 --> 01:00:15,479
Speaker 2: McCoy will have time to throw. Here. The only fear

1180
01:00:15,520 --> 01:00:17,480
Speaker 2: is the Cardinals come out every week. They average like

1181
01:00:17,480 --> 01:00:20,120
Speaker 2: two points per first quarter, so they come out every

1182
01:00:20,120 --> 01:00:21,720
Speaker 2: week and they go down. And that's not what you

1183
01:00:21,760 --> 01:00:24,400
Speaker 2: want to do here with their defense playing the you know,

1184
01:00:24,480 --> 01:00:27,640
Speaker 2: the Service Academy of the NFL just runs it and

1185
01:00:27,680 --> 01:00:29,880
Speaker 2: they can once. If the Falcons get a lead on

1186
01:00:29,920 --> 01:00:32,280
Speaker 2: you at home, it's it's bad. So that's what worries

1187
01:00:32,280 --> 01:00:34,640
Speaker 2: me here. But you know, with this Falcon's defense and

1188
01:00:34,680 --> 01:00:36,920
Speaker 2: with the uncertainty around Ritter, I think it's a good

1189
01:00:36,960 --> 01:00:39,600
Speaker 2: money on underdog piece. So give me the Cardinals.

1190
01:00:40,480 --> 01:00:42,760
Speaker 5: Yeah, absolutely, I mean this is you know, it's it's

1191
01:00:42,840 --> 01:00:46,440
Speaker 5: McCoy versus Ridder. It's a toss up game. Really yeah,

1192
01:00:46,520 --> 01:00:49,920
Speaker 5: I'm going with the Houston Texans plus one eight at

1193
01:00:49,920 --> 01:00:51,240
Speaker 5: home against the Jaguars.

1194
01:00:51,800 --> 01:00:53,520
Speaker 4: Already talked about it with the Jaguars.

1195
01:00:53,920 --> 01:00:56,680
Speaker 5: They could kind of take their foot off the gas

1196
01:00:56,680 --> 01:00:57,680
Speaker 5: through it if they have a wet don't want to

1197
01:00:57,680 --> 01:01:00,680
Speaker 5: play for There's more scenarios, like another scenario where you know,

1198
01:01:00,720 --> 01:01:02,760
Speaker 5: if they win but don't win next week, they could

1199
01:01:02,880 --> 01:01:05,880
Speaker 5: you know, winning this week would help them. But more importantly,

1200
01:01:05,880 --> 01:01:08,280
Speaker 5: Trevor Lawrence just struggles against his Lovey Smith cover two

1201
01:01:08,320 --> 01:01:10,720
Speaker 5: defense in three meetings.

1202
01:01:11,040 --> 01:01:15,240
Speaker 4: He first of all, he's oz and three and he's averaging.

1203
01:01:14,880 --> 01:01:19,000
Speaker 5: Just six yards in a tempt fifty five percent completions, and.

1204
01:01:19,360 --> 01:01:21,080
Speaker 4: It, you know, it just flummeckses him.

1205
01:01:21,080 --> 01:01:24,560
Speaker 5: It seems like it just you know, three touchdowns, five picks.

1206
01:01:25,120 --> 01:01:26,720
Speaker 4: He just seems to get confused by it.

1207
01:01:27,080 --> 01:01:32,200
Speaker 5: And this Houston Texan team, for whatever reason, it predates

1208
01:01:32,240 --> 01:01:36,720
Speaker 5: even Lawrence. They've just owned the Jaguars. They are nine

1209
01:01:36,760 --> 01:01:40,400
Speaker 5: to oh straight up against Jacksonville in their last nine,

1210
01:01:41,160 --> 01:01:43,960
Speaker 5: and they're five and zero straight up against Jacksonville in

1211
01:01:43,960 --> 01:01:46,440
Speaker 5: their last five when they've been an underdog.

1212
01:01:46,680 --> 01:01:48,880
Speaker 4: So this is just what Houston does.

1213
01:01:48,920 --> 01:01:52,680
Speaker 5: They just beat Jacksonville, just like Jacksonville always handles the Colts. So,

1214
01:01:53,800 --> 01:01:56,360
Speaker 5: you know, for a moneyline dog, obviously Jacksonville is the

1215
01:01:56,400 --> 01:01:59,200
Speaker 5: better team now. Obviously jackson's Ville is more motivated and

1216
01:01:59,280 --> 01:02:02,200
Speaker 5: Lawrence is playing all right now, but this could be

1217
01:02:02,200 --> 01:02:04,360
Speaker 5: a little bit of a slip up spot for them

1218
01:02:04,960 --> 01:02:07,360
Speaker 5: against Just use the team that's playing pretty feisty. I mean,

1219
01:02:07,680 --> 01:02:09,640
Speaker 5: you know, take it down to the wire against Dallas,

1220
01:02:09,680 --> 01:02:13,720
Speaker 5: down to the wire against Casey, and then beat the Titans,

1221
01:02:14,000 --> 01:02:16,280
Speaker 5: who were you know, had a lot to play for.

1222
01:02:16,640 --> 01:02:19,480
Speaker 4: So yeah, give me the Technans plus Wennity.

1223
01:02:21,040 --> 01:02:24,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, Texans are playing really well, just as an incompetent

1224
01:02:24,800 --> 01:02:28,920
Speaker 2: organization will do. They're trying to blow the number one

1225
01:02:28,960 --> 01:02:32,840
Speaker 2: overall pick. I still remember I got knocked down survivor

1226
01:02:33,320 --> 01:02:35,680
Speaker 2: really late in the year in one of my pools

1227
01:02:35,720 --> 01:02:39,240
Speaker 2: when the Jets beat the Rams. You remember that game, yep,

1228
01:02:39,360 --> 01:02:43,800
Speaker 2: which which cost them Trevor Lawrence ironically enough and got

1229
01:02:43,800 --> 01:02:47,320
Speaker 2: them Zach Wilson. So yeah, and the Jags, like, I

1230
01:02:47,320 --> 01:02:49,640
Speaker 2: think they'll care, but they might just be like, look,

1231
01:02:49,680 --> 01:02:54,280
Speaker 2: it's better, there's better equity and keeping everyone healthy. There's

1232
01:02:54,320 --> 01:02:57,280
Speaker 2: also a scenario where they know in like the second

1233
01:02:57,360 --> 01:03:00,360
Speaker 2: half that they're eliminated from the wild card based on

1234
01:03:00,360 --> 01:03:03,880
Speaker 2: one o'clock results, So then you just pull everybody like

1235
01:03:03,920 --> 01:03:06,400
Speaker 2: you don't get Lawrence hurt. So yeah, I agree, this

1236
01:03:06,440 --> 01:03:10,000
Speaker 2: is a good money line dog piece. And Lawrence really

1237
01:03:10,000 --> 01:03:13,360
Speaker 2: has struggled with that Lovey Smith cover too. That's why

1238
01:03:13,920 --> 01:03:15,200
Speaker 2: they were gonna be my pick if you didn't go

1239
01:03:15,280 --> 01:03:19,919
Speaker 2: with them. So yeah, let's go Cardinals and Texans.

1240
01:03:20,400 --> 01:03:23,360
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's about a five five point seven X payout.

1241
01:03:23,440 --> 01:03:27,000
Speaker 5: It's about five sixty six on one hundred dollar bets,

1242
01:03:27,080 --> 01:03:28,240
Speaker 5: so to keep it.

1243
01:03:28,160 --> 01:03:32,840
Speaker 4: Going, and it's prosed out with the best of the rest.

1244
01:03:32,880 --> 01:03:35,560
Speaker 5: Games we haven't covered in any other segment, but are still,

1245
01:03:35,680 --> 01:03:38,720
Speaker 5: as they say, meaningful to some.

1246
01:03:40,080 --> 01:03:42,480
Speaker 3: That's gonna be a touchdown but that may be meaningful

1247
01:03:42,560 --> 01:03:46,680
Speaker 3: to some of you, you know what I mean, kind of.

1248
01:03:46,640 --> 01:03:47,760
Speaker 4: Talk about that game already.

1249
01:03:47,760 --> 01:03:51,720
Speaker 5: But Niners at Raiders, that line is ten now, it's

1250
01:03:51,760 --> 01:03:52,680
Speaker 5: probably still moving.

1251
01:03:53,200 --> 01:03:57,040
Speaker 4: The total forty one and a half Niners rowing, Niners

1252
01:03:57,080 --> 01:04:02,160
Speaker 4: covering yards. Did him? I really want no part of

1253
01:04:02,160 --> 01:04:03,400
Speaker 4: this now, what about you?

1254
01:04:04,320 --> 01:04:08,320
Speaker 2: Yeah? Absolutely, nope. Part I was going. I was thinking

1255
01:04:08,360 --> 01:04:11,200
Speaker 2: about the Raiders and like now I'm thankful that I

1256
01:04:11,240 --> 01:04:12,800
Speaker 2: don't have to play them because I thought that the

1257
01:04:12,840 --> 01:04:16,360
Speaker 2: line has a bit inflated. I still haven't fully you know,

1258
01:04:16,640 --> 01:04:20,320
Speaker 2: adjusted the Niners to perty is equal to Jimmy g.

1259
01:04:21,360 --> 01:04:23,640
Speaker 2: You know, he's been a very favorable game states he's had.

1260
01:04:23,680 --> 01:04:25,800
Speaker 2: You know, he's five turnover worthy, he plays the three

1261
01:04:25,800 --> 01:04:28,520
Speaker 2: big time throws and we'll see. I want to see

1262
01:04:28,560 --> 01:04:30,880
Speaker 2: him tested a little bit more, and you know he's

1263
01:04:30,880 --> 01:04:33,080
Speaker 2: had it very easy. But the forty nine ers since

1264
01:04:33,080 --> 01:04:36,320
Speaker 2: getting McCaffrey full time in Week eight eight No seven

1265
01:04:36,360 --> 01:04:40,640
Speaker 2: to one against the spread. There their offenses first, their

1266
01:04:40,720 --> 01:04:44,040
Speaker 2: rush offenses, their pass offenses first, their rush offenses third,

1267
01:04:44,400 --> 01:04:47,280
Speaker 2: dv o A. They were ninth and twenty fifth before McCaffrey.

1268
01:04:47,480 --> 01:04:50,600
Speaker 2: How about their defensive ranks? Their defensive if you chart

1269
01:04:50,680 --> 01:04:53,280
Speaker 2: it like EPA versus anything, it's the Niners are way

1270
01:04:53,320 --> 01:04:56,840
Speaker 2: out now above everyone else. They're first in points and

1271
01:04:56,920 --> 01:04:59,440
Speaker 2: yards per game, first in points and yards per play,

1272
01:05:00,080 --> 01:05:03,280
Speaker 2: first in yards per rush number one DBO, number one

1273
01:05:03,360 --> 01:05:06,800
Speaker 2: rush defense DV. Like they are rolling right now. They

1274
01:05:06,800 --> 01:05:08,760
Speaker 2: are the scariest team in the NFC in my opinion,

1275
01:05:08,880 --> 01:05:13,400
Speaker 2: if Purdy can just get up to close to Jimmy

1276
01:05:13,440 --> 01:05:16,840
Speaker 2: G's level, which isn't asking a ton. But that's really

1277
01:05:16,920 --> 01:05:20,080
Speaker 2: the only question with this roster. Look the Raiders. The

1278
01:05:20,640 --> 01:05:22,760
Speaker 2: problem with I was what I was scared about playing

1279
01:05:22,760 --> 01:05:25,280
Speaker 2: cars like he's been really bad his whole career, and

1280
01:05:25,320 --> 01:05:28,560
Speaker 2: you can get pressure without blitzing, and the forty nine

1281
01:05:28,640 --> 01:05:30,640
Speaker 2: Ers can do that. The Raiders also can't cover the

1282
01:05:30,640 --> 01:05:33,160
Speaker 2: slot or running backs out of the backfield. Chandler Jones

1283
01:05:33,160 --> 01:05:36,320
Speaker 2: got hurt, Denzel Perriman got hurt like. Their defense obviously

1284
01:05:36,360 --> 01:05:39,560
Speaker 2: blows to the worst pass defense in the NFL. Do

1285
01:05:39,640 --> 01:05:41,800
Speaker 2: I want to play Jared Steadham against this forty nine

1286
01:05:41,880 --> 01:05:47,040
Speaker 2: Ers defense? Absolutely not. Maybe under but no, I'm not

1287
01:05:47,120 --> 01:05:47,880
Speaker 2: touching this game.

1288
01:05:48,240 --> 01:05:50,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, and the Vikings at the Packers. Packers up to

1289
01:05:50,680 --> 01:05:52,480
Speaker 5: three and a half total forty eight and a half.

1290
01:05:53,360 --> 01:05:55,880
Speaker 5: You know, I think the Vikings are tempting getting over

1291
01:05:55,920 --> 01:05:56,440
Speaker 5: a field goal.

1292
01:05:56,560 --> 01:05:57,640
Speaker 4: But we've talked.

1293
01:05:57,480 --> 01:06:01,280
Speaker 5: About the year, the Viking the kind of overachieving, and

1294
01:06:01,360 --> 01:06:03,680
Speaker 5: the Packers are quietly you know, top five and DVA,

1295
01:06:04,600 --> 01:06:05,600
Speaker 5: you know, since week ten.

1296
01:06:05,840 --> 01:06:08,560
Speaker 4: Though, I think the why is more and left right

1297
01:06:08,560 --> 01:06:09,680
Speaker 4: probably should be a field goal.

1298
01:06:09,840 --> 01:06:12,840
Speaker 5: But either way, don't really want to don't really want

1299
01:06:12,880 --> 01:06:15,400
Speaker 5: to wait points with I mean, don't really want to

1300
01:06:15,400 --> 01:06:16,000
Speaker 5: weigh points with.

1301
01:06:15,920 --> 01:06:17,680
Speaker 4: The Packers to win by more than a field goal.

1302
01:06:17,920 --> 01:06:21,280
Speaker 5: Don't want to, you know, bet on the Vikings who

1303
01:06:21,320 --> 01:06:22,360
Speaker 5: have just been overachieving.

1304
01:06:22,720 --> 01:06:23,200
Speaker 4: What about you?

1305
01:06:24,400 --> 01:06:27,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, By the way, everyone has come around on the Packers.

1306
01:06:27,040 --> 01:06:28,960
Speaker 2: I was remember I was, I was telling everyone midway

1307
01:06:28,960 --> 01:06:31,640
Speaker 2: through the year, they're just getting so unlucky. This offense

1308
01:06:31,760 --> 01:06:37,320
Speaker 2: is good now. Christian Watson has been important. He's didn't

1309
01:06:37,360 --> 01:06:40,800
Speaker 2: practice today, but I still think that everyone moves the

1310
01:06:40,800 --> 01:06:43,040
Speaker 2: ball in this Viking song like they made the Patriots

1311
01:06:43,040 --> 01:06:46,120
Speaker 2: look really good. This defense is horrinted, like the Giants

1312
01:06:46,200 --> 01:06:48,360
Speaker 2: had like four hundred and fifty yards out gaining by

1313
01:06:48,360 --> 01:06:51,640
Speaker 2: two yards. Will play last week they with who were

1314
01:06:51,640 --> 01:06:54,440
Speaker 2: they throw at? Isaiah Hodgsons had like ten catches and uh,

1315
01:06:54,720 --> 01:06:57,760
Speaker 2: and Richie James like they look like Jerry made him

1316
01:06:57,760 --> 01:07:00,920
Speaker 2: look like Justin Jefferson Adam Field, and I was getting

1317
01:07:00,920 --> 01:07:04,640
Speaker 2: confused which side of the offense I was watching. But yeah,

1318
01:07:04,720 --> 01:07:08,120
Speaker 2: the Packers. The Packers defense still hasn't been great. They're

1319
01:07:08,120 --> 01:07:10,400
Speaker 2: getting lucky in turnovers. Now they're getting lucky like a

1320
01:07:10,520 --> 01:07:13,720
Speaker 2: turnovers red zone. Their thirty first the NFL since Week

1321
01:07:13,840 --> 01:07:17,520
Speaker 2: nine on defense on EPA per play if you remove turnovers.

1322
01:07:17,520 --> 01:07:20,280
Speaker 2: So I think the Vikings goble to move the ball year,

1323
01:07:20,600 --> 01:07:23,120
Speaker 2: but I think the Packers will be able to. Look

1324
01:07:23,200 --> 01:07:25,520
Speaker 2: it's like Aaron Rodgers outdoors in a must win game

1325
01:07:25,640 --> 01:07:29,120
Speaker 2: team is rolling against his lucky Vikings team. They're not

1326
01:07:29,120 --> 01:07:30,600
Speaker 2: going to lose this game. I mean they could, but

1327
01:07:30,680 --> 01:07:32,400
Speaker 2: I don't think they are. I'm not laying three and

1328
01:07:32,400 --> 01:07:34,240
Speaker 2: a half. I took the money line. As I mentioned

1329
01:07:34,240 --> 01:07:38,960
Speaker 2: earlier with Dallas on Thursday Night, the one. A couple

1330
01:07:39,000 --> 01:07:40,800
Speaker 2: of things of why I like this particular matchup. Now

1331
01:07:40,800 --> 01:07:44,080
Speaker 2: there's you want to also want to watch Yosh Nijman

1332
01:07:44,160 --> 01:07:46,240
Speaker 2: their their tackle who's been eighth and pass block win

1333
01:07:46,320 --> 01:07:48,360
Speaker 2: right first and run buck win Rado tackles. This year,

1334
01:07:48,400 --> 01:07:51,440
Speaker 2: he practiced limited fashion night, which is big because Newman

1335
01:07:51,680 --> 01:07:55,000
Speaker 2: stinks to his backup. But Kayshawn Mixon, who's been who

1336
01:07:55,000 --> 01:07:57,080
Speaker 2: plays their slot now, and he's been the best returner

1337
01:07:57,120 --> 01:07:59,240
Speaker 2: in the NFL. They went from the worst or turn

1338
01:07:59,280 --> 01:08:02,320
Speaker 2: in the NFL or the best. He's not practicing today,

1339
01:08:02,320 --> 01:08:04,840
Speaker 2: so that may matter. But the Packers, the reason their

1340
01:08:04,840 --> 01:08:06,840
Speaker 2: defense is still bad is the run defense is still bad.

1341
01:08:07,560 --> 01:08:10,240
Speaker 2: Their past defense is good. They're blitzing a lot and

1342
01:08:10,680 --> 01:08:13,440
Speaker 2: Cousins have been bad against the blitz this year. And

1343
01:08:13,480 --> 01:08:15,960
Speaker 2: the Vikings can't run the ball. They cannot run the ball,

1344
01:08:15,960 --> 01:08:19,400
Speaker 2: they can't run block. Since Week eight after they're bye,

1345
01:08:20,080 --> 01:08:23,200
Speaker 2: Vikings dead last the NFL and rushed success rate Cook

1346
01:08:23,320 --> 01:08:25,599
Speaker 2: on the seasons only averaging three point eight yards per

1347
01:08:25,640 --> 01:08:29,200
Speaker 2: Russian neutral situations and he's not even seeing many loaded boxes.

1348
01:08:29,240 --> 01:08:32,479
Speaker 2: Their line is thirty second stuff rate, thirtieth in power

1349
01:08:32,600 --> 01:08:37,000
Speaker 2: success rate, bottom eight in line yards. So yeah, I

1350
01:08:37,000 --> 01:08:40,599
Speaker 2: don't think they can really capitalize on the Packers' weaknesses.

1351
01:08:40,640 --> 01:08:42,519
Speaker 2: I think Green Bay wins. This game line is a

1352
01:08:42,520 --> 01:08:46,559
Speaker 2: bit inflated, which is why I took the one took

1353
01:08:46,560 --> 01:08:50,479
Speaker 2: the money on here with Dallas. But for what it's worth,

1354
01:08:51,120 --> 01:08:54,960
Speaker 2: the seven to eight Packers are favored over the twelve

1355
01:08:54,960 --> 01:08:57,680
Speaker 2: and three Vikings and twelve three Vikings six. If you

1356
01:08:57,720 --> 01:09:00,960
Speaker 2: look analytically, they should have about six wins maybe a

1357
01:09:01,000 --> 01:09:04,400
Speaker 2: six and nineteen plus five point differential eleven wins eleven

1358
01:09:04,439 --> 01:09:07,720
Speaker 2: straight wins by one possession NFL record, But the seven

1359
01:09:07,760 --> 01:09:09,400
Speaker 2: and eight Packers are favored over the twelve and three

1360
01:09:09,479 --> 01:09:12,600
Speaker 2: Vikings just This will be the tenth time in the

1361
01:09:12,640 --> 01:09:15,800
Speaker 2: past twenty years shut out Evan Abrams for this that

1362
01:09:15,920 --> 01:09:18,880
Speaker 2: a team under five hundred straight up will be favored

1363
01:09:18,920 --> 01:09:21,839
Speaker 2: over a team with an eighty percent plus win percentage

1364
01:09:21,840 --> 01:09:25,800
Speaker 2: in December or later. One of those previous nine, by

1365
01:09:25,800 --> 01:09:28,640
Speaker 2: the way, occurred with the Lions against the Vikings a

1366
01:09:28,640 --> 01:09:32,080
Speaker 2: few weeks ago when they won and covered the previous

1367
01:09:32,200 --> 01:09:34,760
Speaker 2: nine times. This is these teams have been listed as

1368
01:09:34,760 --> 01:09:37,559
Speaker 2: favorites nine and oh straight up eight ho to one

1369
01:09:37,600 --> 01:09:40,080
Speaker 2: against the spread. So yeah, I think the Packers get

1370
01:09:40,080 --> 01:09:41,960
Speaker 2: it done, so I use them as a money online piece.

1371
01:09:41,960 --> 01:09:43,240
Speaker 2: I wouldn't like three and a half.

1372
01:09:43,680 --> 01:09:44,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, agree? All right?

1373
01:09:44,840 --> 01:09:47,200
Speaker 5: That is going to wrap it up for the week. Seventeen.

1374
01:09:47,680 --> 01:09:50,640
Speaker 5: Action Network podcast presenter by Fandue. Will be sure to

1375
01:09:50,680 --> 01:09:53,000
Speaker 5: check out Stucky on Twitter at Stucky two in me

1376
01:09:53,080 --> 01:09:54,880
Speaker 5: at kurzree Mind you can find us at the same

1377
01:09:54,880 --> 01:09:57,559
Speaker 5: handles all the free award winning Action Network AP and

1378
01:09:57,600 --> 01:10:01,839
Speaker 5: Actionnetwork dot Com, all of our best heading NFL content

1379
01:10:02,000 --> 01:10:02,800
Speaker 5: and otherwise.

1380
01:10:02,880 --> 01:10:05,800
Speaker 4: Until next time, let's get this money and happy New Year,

1381
01:10:06,479 --> 01:10:06,720
Speaker 4: let go.

1382
01:10:12,479 --> 01:10:12,760
Speaker 5: Thank you.

1383
01:10:14,280 --> 01:10:18,360
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1384
01:10:18,400 --> 01:10:20,880
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1385
01:10:20,920 --> 01:10:23,759
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