1
00:00:01,840 --> 00:00:05,560
Speaker 1: This is twenty four, a weekly highlight reel from the

2
00:00:05,640 --> 00:00:10,200
Speaker 1: Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show featuring all things election coverage.

3
00:00:10,680 --> 00:00:11,600
Speaker 2: Let's get started.

4
00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:13,200
Speaker 1: Here are Clay and Bucks.

5
00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,439
Speaker 3: We're joined now by our buddy, Sean Parnell. He is

6
00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:20,880
Speaker 3: a combat veteran of the tenth Mountain Brigade. He served

7
00:00:20,880 --> 00:00:24,840
Speaker 3: in Afghanistan. New York Times bestselling author and host of

8
00:00:24,880 --> 00:00:29,400
Speaker 3: the Battleground Live podcast on the CNB podcast Network. Go

9
00:00:29,520 --> 00:00:32,239
Speaker 3: subscribe and listen to Sean Parnell over the weekend. He

10
00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:37,200
Speaker 3: does great stuff and also been a friend of mine. Now, God, Sean,

11
00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:39,160
Speaker 3: I don't know. We're going on thirteen years or something.

12
00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:42,080
Speaker 3: Been a long time, buddy. We're getting old, but you

13
00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:43,440
Speaker 3: don't look at you don't look at day older.

14
00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:44,000
Speaker 4: How are you doing?

15
00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:48,440
Speaker 2: You see all this gray hair? And yeah, I feel

16
00:00:48,440 --> 00:00:50,360
Speaker 2: a lot older. I'll tell you that I'm doing really good.

17
00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:51,320
Speaker 2: Thanks for having me. Buck.

18
00:00:51,640 --> 00:00:53,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, man, you're distinguished. You know what I mean. It

19
00:00:53,440 --> 00:00:56,120
Speaker 4: adds gravi toss, Sean, It just adds kravi toss.

20
00:00:56,480 --> 00:00:56,640
Speaker 5: You know.

21
00:00:56,680 --> 00:00:59,080
Speaker 4: I'll tell your wife the Gray ads a little gravi tos.

22
00:00:59,160 --> 00:01:03,440
Speaker 3: So you were actually with JD with the Trump campaigned

23
00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:07,520
Speaker 3: yesterday in Pennsylvania, because you know that pattle ground quite well.

24
00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:09,400
Speaker 3: Tell us what's going on, What did you see, what'd

25
00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:09,720
Speaker 3: you do?

26
00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:15,240
Speaker 2: Well? We did an event yesterday in western Pennsylvania, which

27
00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:18,319
Speaker 2: is what I call in Pennsylvania the Western Wall. So

28
00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:21,720
Speaker 2: everything from Erie, Pennsylvania in the northwest down to Green

29
00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:26,479
Speaker 2: County in the southwest critically critically important place in Pennsylvania

30
00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:29,520
Speaker 2: for Republicans to run up the score. And the reason

31
00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:32,240
Speaker 2: for that is is there are a lot of moderate

32
00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:36,959
Speaker 2: blue collar union Democrats, pro life, pro gun Democrats that

33
00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:38,959
Speaker 2: we got to have, we got to win, and you

34
00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:41,880
Speaker 2: win those voters by showing up and talking to them.

35
00:01:41,920 --> 00:01:46,200
Speaker 2: And so yesterday with Senator Vance, along with Brian Mass,

36
00:01:46,560 --> 00:01:51,800
Speaker 2: Representative Brian Mass, Congressman Mike Waalds, and Congressman Jim Banks,

37
00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:55,520
Speaker 2: did an event that was focused on veterans in western Pennsylvania.

38
00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:59,920
Speaker 2: And for me, speaking to those veterans prior to jd

39
00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:02,120
Speaker 2: coming on the stage, it was about you know, you

40
00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:05,559
Speaker 2: hear Douglas MacArthur in his farewell address and says old

41
00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:09,359
Speaker 2: soldiers don't die, they simply fade away. Old soldiers never die,

42
00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:12,720
Speaker 2: they simply fade away. My message to those veterans, is

43
00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:16,320
Speaker 2: that this country is thinly balanced on a nice edge.

44
00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:19,160
Speaker 2: We can't afford to have you fade away. So stay

45
00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:23,040
Speaker 2: in the fight. You know everything is on the line

46
00:02:23,080 --> 00:02:25,679
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four. I don't think that's hyperbolic. It's

47
00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:29,400
Speaker 2: hard to see how America survives another four years of

48
00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:33,160
Speaker 2: radical communist Kamala Harris. And so get in the fight.

49
00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:35,040
Speaker 2: Stay in the fight. And if we went in Pennsylvania,

50
00:02:35,080 --> 00:02:37,959
Speaker 2: as you said in the prior segment, that's the ballgame,

51
00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:38,400
Speaker 2: my friend.

52
00:02:39,639 --> 00:02:40,760
Speaker 4: How is it looking, Sean?

53
00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:45,280
Speaker 3: I've seen some indicators that there are more There have

54
00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:49,639
Speaker 3: been more Republican registrations added than Democrat recently. I mean

55
00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:52,360
Speaker 3: to take us, if you can, into the how is

56
00:02:52,480 --> 00:02:57,079
Speaker 3: battlefield Pennsylvania looking as we are now counting weeks more

57
00:02:57,080 --> 00:02:58,880
Speaker 3: than months until people start voting?

58
00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:03,080
Speaker 2: Another great question, and I'll tell you we're living through

59
00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:06,080
Speaker 2: I think one of the most tumultuous political times, certainly

60
00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:09,799
Speaker 2: in my lifetime, perhaps even in American history, in that

61
00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:14,880
Speaker 2: we had an assassination attempt against President Trump. We had

62
00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:20,200
Speaker 2: the Democrats. This is not they shanked Biden to politically

63
00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:23,200
Speaker 2: remove him from the ticket. They selected Kamala Harris. That

64
00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:26,560
Speaker 2: did an elector, and so I think the question for

65
00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:29,320
Speaker 2: a long time was, Buck, is that is this going

66
00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:33,079
Speaker 2: Is Kamala going to be able to reshape the electorate

67
00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:35,920
Speaker 2: like Barack Obama did in two thousand and eight, or

68
00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:37,600
Speaker 2: is this going to be a blip on the radar.

69
00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:40,840
Speaker 2: I think we're starting to see indications now, Buck, that

70
00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:42,720
Speaker 2: this in fact is going to be a blip on

71
00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:44,480
Speaker 2: the radar. I'm sure you saw the new Emerson Real

72
00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:48,480
Speaker 2: Clear Politics poll Trump forty nine Harris forty eight and

73
00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:51,960
Speaker 2: with leaners Trump fifty one Harris forty nine in Pennsylvania.

74
00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:56,160
Speaker 2: That's a huge deal, especially considering at this same time

75
00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:59,920
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty that very same poll had Biden up seven.

76
00:04:00,320 --> 00:04:04,320
Speaker 2: So that's statistically significant. And now, you know, don't trust pollings,

77
00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:08,200
Speaker 2: but we look at we should trust trends, and so

78
00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:10,880
Speaker 2: it's trending in the right direction to look at like

79
00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:12,320
Speaker 2: this is going to be a blip on the radar.

80
00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:14,440
Speaker 2: Now we campaign like we're ten points down. We take

81
00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:17,720
Speaker 2: nothing for granted as far as the registrations, I mean

82
00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:20,200
Speaker 2: by the numbers, and this is very important for people

83
00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:25,039
Speaker 2: to understand who are listening. By the numbers. Pennsylvania statewide

84
00:04:25,240 --> 00:04:30,040
Speaker 2: has never with a capital N been more favorable for Republicans.

85
00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:33,440
Speaker 2: When Trump won the state in twenty and sixteen, the

86
00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:37,800
Speaker 2: Democrats had a nine hundred thousand person voter registration advantage.

87
00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:41,239
Speaker 2: Same in twenty twenty that number was seven hundred thousand,

88
00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:44,400
Speaker 2: So there were seven hundred thousand more Democrats in this

89
00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:47,320
Speaker 2: state than Republicans. And what does that mean. That means

90
00:04:47,320 --> 00:04:50,960
Speaker 2: that Democrats could win an election without a single Republican vote.

91
00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:54,400
Speaker 2: But this cycle that number has dwindled to three hundred

92
00:04:54,440 --> 00:04:56,799
Speaker 2: and twenty five thousand. So you could look over time

93
00:04:56,880 --> 00:04:59,599
Speaker 2: at the voter registration advantage we as Republicans have had

94
00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:02,840
Speaker 2: here in the state, and we're out pacing the Democrats

95
00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:06,119
Speaker 2: by a substantial clip, and we're playing the early mail

96
00:05:06,160 --> 00:05:09,039
Speaker 2: in vote game just as good, if not better than them,

97
00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:12,200
Speaker 2: And I gotta believe that's outcome determinative in this state

98
00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:14,880
Speaker 2: if everything else holds the way that it did in

99
00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:15,560
Speaker 2: twenty twenty.

100
00:05:15,880 --> 00:05:17,840
Speaker 3: You know, we just had a caller from North Carolina

101
00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:19,159
Speaker 3: and I asked him, and you know, I didn't mean

102
00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:20,320
Speaker 3: to put one of our callers on the spot, but

103
00:05:20,320 --> 00:05:22,120
Speaker 3: I said, are you going to early vote? He said absolutely,

104
00:05:23,120 --> 00:05:26,159
Speaker 3: I've been getting that from a lot of our listeners

105
00:05:26,520 --> 00:05:28,960
Speaker 3: right again saying oh no, we understand this.

106
00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:30,359
Speaker 4: Is in all of the above.

107
00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:33,960
Speaker 3: Use the tools, use the lawful tools that we have

108
00:05:34,480 --> 00:05:39,320
Speaker 3: to win this election. And that means adopting the strategies

109
00:05:39,320 --> 00:05:42,159
Speaker 3: that the other side has been earlier on, including vote

110
00:05:42,440 --> 00:05:45,240
Speaker 3: you know, vote early where you can, mail in where

111
00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:48,280
Speaker 3: you can, because otherwise we run into what we saw

112
00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:50,960
Speaker 3: in some of these other very close states like Pennsylvania,

113
00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:53,160
Speaker 3: where the Democrats were taking full advantage and we were

114
00:05:53,200 --> 00:05:55,400
Speaker 3: kind of stuck in a more traditionalist posture. So I

115
00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:58,560
Speaker 3: think that's that's encouraging to me Sean as well, not

116
00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:01,279
Speaker 3: just in Pennsylvania, but in a lot of states where

117
00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:03,040
Speaker 3: the vote count is going to be pretty close.

118
00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:04,599
Speaker 4: I also want to ask.

119
00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:08,520
Speaker 3: You your feelings. I'm sure you saw right the Taliban

120
00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:10,839
Speaker 3: parade of our gear. I mean, you were over there

121
00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:14,839
Speaker 3: fighting these guys years ago, and you know, going muzzle

122
00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:18,560
Speaker 3: to muzzle with them, and now they're parading our gear.

123
00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:21,479
Speaker 3: The third anniversary I think it was officially yesterday of

124
00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:25,840
Speaker 3: the Biden withdrawal and the Taliban takeover. Just as a

125
00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:29,000
Speaker 3: combat veteran from Afghanistan and as a patriotic American, as

126
00:06:29,040 --> 00:06:32,560
Speaker 3: you see that does Biden just get away with it?

127
00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:35,080
Speaker 3: In terms of Kamala Harris says it wasn't her fault,

128
00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:36,599
Speaker 3: so no one's held accountable.

129
00:06:36,640 --> 00:06:37,560
Speaker 4: Is that what we're heading for?

130
00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:43,240
Speaker 2: The interesting thing about it, Buck, It's relatively inexplicable to me.

131
00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:45,960
Speaker 2: But she bragged in an interview with I think Dana

132
00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:48,599
Speaker 2: Bash where she said, yeah, she was the last person

133
00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:50,640
Speaker 2: in the room with Joe Biden on that decision, and

134
00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:54,479
Speaker 2: she owns it. And so as a veteran who fought there,

135
00:06:54,560 --> 00:06:57,120
Speaker 2: bled there, lost thirty of my friends in support of

136
00:06:57,160 --> 00:06:59,520
Speaker 2: that fight, which, as I talked through that number even now,

137
00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:03,359
Speaker 2: cul to wrap my mind around that, I'd be remiss

138
00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:06,920
Speaker 2: if I didn't say to you, and I perhaps even dishonest,

139
00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:10,360
Speaker 2: as I do question what it was for now that listen,

140
00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:15,480
Speaker 2: if this country were ever under any sort of direct threat,

141
00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:18,000
Speaker 2: I'd be the first in line to volunteer to protect

142
00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:21,160
Speaker 2: and defend freedom. I don't regret my service in Afghanistan

143
00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:22,600
Speaker 2: at all. In fact, I'm very proud of it. We

144
00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:25,800
Speaker 2: did great things for the Afghan people. But you look

145
00:07:25,840 --> 00:07:29,440
Speaker 2: at how my troops and certainly American servicemen and women,

146
00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:33,240
Speaker 2: and how they dedicated themselves to that country for what

147
00:07:33,400 --> 00:07:37,720
Speaker 2: was twenty years, and then to just have politicians cut

148
00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:40,960
Speaker 2: sling load on the country and surrender there, and then

149
00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:44,400
Speaker 2: add insult to injury three years later, the Taliban parading

150
00:07:44,440 --> 00:07:49,360
Speaker 2: around military equipment that we just left there again inexplicably.

151
00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:54,800
Speaker 2: It hurts. It's really difficult, it's really difficult to see

152
00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:57,400
Speaker 2: that play out before our eyes. And this is there,

153
00:07:57,520 --> 00:07:59,960
Speaker 2: this is where I build to you know, I'm fine

154
00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:03,200
Speaker 2: with looking at foreign policy through a different lens, and

155
00:08:03,200 --> 00:08:05,920
Speaker 2: this is why I appreciate President Trump so much. If

156
00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:08,040
Speaker 2: you look back over the last twenty years at what

157
00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:11,640
Speaker 2: we did in Iraq and Afghanistan and certainly toppling autocrats

158
00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:14,560
Speaker 2: in Egypt, Libya and other places, you're hard pressed to

159
00:08:14,600 --> 00:08:16,640
Speaker 2: look at the last twenty years and say America is

160
00:08:16,640 --> 00:08:20,880
Speaker 2: better off today for having invaded those countries. I mean,

161
00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:25,320
Speaker 2: hundreds of thousands of Americans wounded, right, tens of thousands

162
00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:30,800
Speaker 2: of Americans perhaps dead, and that includes suicide after coming back,

163
00:08:30,960 --> 00:08:33,480
Speaker 2: hundreds of thousands of people with the invisible wounds of war,

164
00:08:33,840 --> 00:08:36,719
Speaker 2: trillions of dollars in debt, blood and treasure sacrifice in

165
00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:39,920
Speaker 2: those countries. And honestly, buck, what do we have to

166
00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:43,320
Speaker 2: show for it we had in Iraq, we abandon Iraq,

167
00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:45,920
Speaker 2: we left avoid there. That created Isis. Of course, that

168
00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:49,840
Speaker 2: strengthened Iran. We cut sling load and run in Afghanistan,

169
00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:53,200
Speaker 2: surrender there because of Biden and Kamala. The Taliban are

170
00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:55,360
Speaker 2: thrown it in our face. And all of those terrorist

171
00:08:55,400 --> 00:08:58,120
Speaker 2: groups that we were fighting Hekmaudier and the Acani network

172
00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:00,640
Speaker 2: there in Afghanistan are more powerful today than they were

173
00:09:00,640 --> 00:09:03,120
Speaker 2: before nine to eleven. What do we have to show

174
00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:05,520
Speaker 2: for it? So I'm all in for a different way.

175
00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:07,520
Speaker 2: But that was painful, my friend.

176
00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:10,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, I can.

177
00:09:10,800 --> 00:09:14,240
Speaker 3: I can imagine from just talking to you and others

178
00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:17,000
Speaker 3: about this, that you see this and it's just a

179
00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:21,800
Speaker 3: reminder of the abdication of leadership, and to be fair,

180
00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:27,280
Speaker 3: the failures of leadership stretching back over many many administrations.

181
00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:29,520
Speaker 4: I mean, we did not win the way that we

182
00:09:29,520 --> 00:09:30,640
Speaker 4: were told we would win.

183
00:09:30,559 --> 00:09:34,200
Speaker 3: An Afghanistan, or rather, we didn't complete the strategy that

184
00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:37,120
Speaker 3: they changed from get rid of al Qaeda and the

185
00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:39,400
Speaker 3: Taliban to we're going to create a self sustaining and

186
00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:40,520
Speaker 3: defensible Afghanistan.

187
00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:43,160
Speaker 4: I mean, that clearly didn't happen.

188
00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:45,560
Speaker 3: And even when I was in Afghanistan, a decade ago

189
00:09:46,559 --> 00:09:50,320
Speaker 3: as a civilian CIA guy, I was seeing the highest

190
00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:52,640
Speaker 3: level intel sean that existed in the country at the

191
00:09:52,640 --> 00:09:54,440
Speaker 3: time on a daily basis, and I was like, there's

192
00:09:54,440 --> 00:09:57,200
Speaker 3: no way this is going to work. So it's very

193
00:09:57,679 --> 00:10:00,280
Speaker 3: very discouraging from that aspect. I would hope that we've

194
00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:03,240
Speaker 3: learned some lessons about this. So you had You've got

195
00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:05,320
Speaker 3: good news for us from Pennsylvania. We had to take

196
00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:08,679
Speaker 3: a moment to just mark the passage of the withdrawal

197
00:10:08,720 --> 00:10:11,760
Speaker 3: from from Afghanistan there for a second. If I can,

198
00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:13,760
Speaker 3: and we're speaking of Sean Parnell, go subscribe to the

199
00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:16,560
Speaker 3: Battleground Live podcast, part of the klan Buck Network. Seawan

200
00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:21,480
Speaker 3: show is great. I highly recommend it. Uh and Sean,

201
00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:23,240
Speaker 3: I heard, I heard a story. I heard a little

202
00:10:23,280 --> 00:10:25,080
Speaker 3: rumor I need to need to present to you right now.

203
00:10:25,520 --> 00:10:29,640
Speaker 3: I heard that you. I heard that you are picking

204
00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:32,679
Speaker 3: up a baby goat? Is this this is like.

205
00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:34,600
Speaker 4: A dream of mine? Are you really picking up a

206
00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:35,360
Speaker 4: baby goat?

207
00:10:36,880 --> 00:10:40,040
Speaker 2: Yes? Yes? But here it is this for milk?

208
00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:41,480
Speaker 4: Is this is this for a pet?

209
00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:41,680
Speaker 2: Like?

210
00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:43,400
Speaker 4: What's with the baby goat? Tell me more?

211
00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:48,719
Speaker 2: Okay, So there's context to this for the listeners. We

212
00:10:49,200 --> 00:10:51,920
Speaker 2: believe that if things go south here at Fort Parnell

213
00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:55,000
Speaker 2: in America, they'll go south pretty quickly. So we have

214
00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:58,920
Speaker 2: been building out a homestead lifestyle that we want to

215
00:10:58,920 --> 00:11:01,840
Speaker 2: be able to say I don't need the government's help

216
00:11:01,880 --> 00:11:05,640
Speaker 2: at all. So part of that plan involves baby goats.

217
00:11:05,760 --> 00:11:08,559
Speaker 2: And so right now here at Fort Parnell, we have

218
00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:12,600
Speaker 2: three baby goats. My wife, Commander Melanie, is on what

219
00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:15,000
Speaker 2: we call a goat field trip and is driving home

220
00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:16,960
Speaker 2: as we speak with a little baby goat who, by

221
00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:18,880
Speaker 2: the way, is screaming like a little human in the

222
00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:21,680
Speaker 2: back of the of our truck, bringing that fourth baby

223
00:11:21,679 --> 00:11:24,319
Speaker 2: goat here. So now that brings us to four baby goats, right,

224
00:11:25,320 --> 00:11:28,920
Speaker 2: and now we've got ten chickens with a rooster name Derby,

225
00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:32,760
Speaker 2: mister Derby Wilcox Esquire, and five children and a dog

226
00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:36,160
Speaker 2: named Pops McGee. So it's pandemonium here, but it's good pandemonium.

227
00:11:36,640 --> 00:11:37,640
Speaker 4: That's fantastic.

228
00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:37,840
Speaker 6: You know.

229
00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:40,800
Speaker 3: I tell Carrie when Ginger's acting up a little too much,

230
00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:42,040
Speaker 3: and this is this is the truth. I don't know

231
00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:43,360
Speaker 3: if she's going to hear this or not, but I

232
00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:46,199
Speaker 3: was like, honey, why don't we just get a Nigerian

233
00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:50,240
Speaker 3: dwarf goat to keep Ginger company because like they stay

234
00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:52,839
Speaker 3: pretty small and they're they're very much like pets. And

235
00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:54,680
Speaker 3: I was like, maybe we could even milf our little

236
00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:58,160
Speaker 3: dwarf goat, and she's like, that is not kitchen.

237
00:11:58,280 --> 00:11:59,360
Speaker 4: She doesn't budge on this one.

238
00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:01,040
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna have to come over to Fort Parnell

239
00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:04,280
Speaker 3: to get the full experience of the of the homestead

240
00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:06,840
Speaker 3: because we have a you know, we have an Australian

241
00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:09,840
Speaker 3: labordeod little Ginger, and she's she's all that we're handling

242
00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:12,560
Speaker 3: on the animal front for now. So anyway, that is awesome, though, dud.

243
00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:15,520
Speaker 3: I'm so glad to hear that you're building it out there,

244
00:12:15,559 --> 00:12:18,520
Speaker 3: and you know, man goats, dude. I I grew up

245
00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:21,600
Speaker 3: my grandparents had had a place in an upstate New

246
00:12:21,679 --> 00:12:24,360
Speaker 3: York and there was a goat farm down the road

247
00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:25,520
Speaker 3: and in the spring, I squear when I was a

248
00:12:25,559 --> 00:12:27,679
Speaker 3: little kid, I was twelve thirteen years old, I would

249
00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:30,000
Speaker 3: go and like, you know, feed the little baby goat

250
00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:33,520
Speaker 3: through the fence. So I really anyway, real fondness of anyway,

251
00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:36,200
Speaker 3: I'm getting off topic, but Sean, that's awesome. You're nuts

252
00:12:36,240 --> 00:12:38,840
Speaker 3: on the baby goat and on also on being you know,

253
00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:40,360
Speaker 3: married and all the kids and all.

254
00:12:40,280 --> 00:12:42,679
Speaker 4: The good things. Where should people go to subscribe to

255
00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:43,800
Speaker 4: Sean Parnell podcast.

256
00:12:44,960 --> 00:12:47,000
Speaker 2: Well, I'm on the Clay and Buck network. You could

257
00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:49,440
Speaker 2: also subscribe Tom a Rumble channel. That's great too. But

258
00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:52,000
Speaker 2: like you all are amazing and it's an honor to

259
00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:53,120
Speaker 2: be a part of your network.

260
00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:54,880
Speaker 4: All right, man, go check it out.

261
00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:57,680
Speaker 3: Sean's great highly highly highly recommend you to go check

262
00:12:57,679 --> 00:13:00,000
Speaker 3: out his podcast this weekend when you can. Might even

263
00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:03,160
Speaker 3: have some goats bleeding in the background. Sean, great to

264
00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:04,320
Speaker 3: have you on, man, Thanks so much.

265
00:13:05,520 --> 00:13:06,320
Speaker 2: See you, my friend.

266
00:13:09,080 --> 00:13:13,120
Speaker 1: You're listening to twenty four The Most Important Tier in

267
00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:16,199
Speaker 1: Politics with Clay Travis and Box Sexton.

268
00:13:17,720 --> 00:13:19,880
Speaker 4: Our friend Andy McCarthy joins us now.

269
00:13:20,040 --> 00:13:22,880
Speaker 3: He is a former federal prosecutor of over twenty years

270
00:13:22,920 --> 00:13:26,400
Speaker 3: Southern District of New York. Fox News contributor writes over

271
00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:31,200
Speaker 3: at National Review and at Foxnews dot Com. Andy, I

272
00:13:31,280 --> 00:13:32,880
Speaker 3: just want you to lay it out for everybody. I've

273
00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:36,560
Speaker 3: been getting a lot of emails because we talked about

274
00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:38,439
Speaker 3: earlier that you were going to come on the show,

275
00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:41,200
Speaker 3: and already we're getting emails people saying you got to

276
00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:43,000
Speaker 3: ask him, what are they going to do with des

277
00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:45,960
Speaker 3: sentencing in September. This is for the New York City

278
00:13:47,040 --> 00:13:51,040
Speaker 3: business records case presided over by Judge Mershawn.

279
00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:52,160
Speaker 4: You've written a piece.

280
00:13:52,320 --> 00:13:55,240
Speaker 3: I'll let the punchline go to you on this one, Andy,

281
00:13:55,280 --> 00:13:57,240
Speaker 3: But first, what's gonna happen here?

282
00:13:57,280 --> 00:13:59,160
Speaker 4: Like, how does this process play out?

283
00:14:00,800 --> 00:14:05,400
Speaker 6: Well, it's an unusual process, buck, because remember it was

284
00:14:05,400 --> 00:14:08,680
Speaker 6: supposed to play out on July eleventh, on the eve

285
00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:13,520
Speaker 6: of the Republican Convention. And I was disturbed by the

286
00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:18,079
Speaker 6: timing even back then, which you knows since been postponed,

287
00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:21,440
Speaker 6: you know, by the fact that they would choose the

288
00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:24,480
Speaker 6: eve of the convention to make what I think is

289
00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:28,120
Speaker 6: yet another political point in a case that's really been

290
00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:33,520
Speaker 6: all about politics. Let's remember, nobody who wasn't Donald Trump

291
00:14:33,560 --> 00:14:37,920
Speaker 6: would ever have been prosecuted in this nonsense case. And

292
00:14:39,040 --> 00:14:41,920
Speaker 6: you know, the technical charge in the case is pulsification

293
00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:46,360
Speaker 6: of business records, but the District Attorney's office, Alvin Bragg,

294
00:14:46,880 --> 00:14:51,600
Speaker 6: with the assistance of the judge, made it into a

295
00:14:51,680 --> 00:14:56,000
Speaker 6: case of conspiracy to steal the twenty sixteen election, which worked,

296
00:14:56,200 --> 00:14:58,720
Speaker 6: by the way, So you know, brag for all their

297
00:14:59,680 --> 00:15:03,120
Speaker 6: rhetoric on the Democratic side, Bragg is the biggest election

298
00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:06,480
Speaker 6: denier in the country. I used to think that was

299
00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:09,240
Speaker 6: supposed to be a bad thing to be, but that's

300
00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:11,200
Speaker 6: the way it is. So it's clear to me that

301
00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:13,280
Speaker 6: they're trying to make a political point out of this,

302
00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:17,000
Speaker 6: and obviously the most powerful political point that they can

303
00:15:17,040 --> 00:15:21,560
Speaker 6: make in a sentence thing that's now scheduled for September eighteenth,

304
00:15:21,640 --> 00:15:25,440
Speaker 6: which to remind people, is two days after early voting

305
00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:30,720
Speaker 6: begins in Pennsylvania, so we're already now we're going to

306
00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:34,640
Speaker 6: do this when the voting process for the November election

307
00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:39,880
Speaker 6: is underway. I think that the point here is for

308
00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:42,840
Speaker 6: the Democrats to be able to argue that Trump is

309
00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:47,200
Speaker 6: a convicted selon who's facing a stiff's prison sentence, and

310
00:15:47,280 --> 00:15:52,360
Speaker 6: I think the incentive for Judge march On to impose

311
00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:57,080
Speaker 6: a stiff prison sentence is perversely increased by the fact

312
00:15:57,120 --> 00:15:59,720
Speaker 6: that I think Trump is sure to get bail pending

313
00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:05,000
Speaker 6: of that is merch On knows that whatever he pronounces

314
00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:08,040
Speaker 6: is not real because it's not actually going to happen.

315
00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:10,760
Speaker 6: You know, the former president is not going to go

316
00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:13,640
Speaker 6: into jail. He's going to be on appeal. It's going

317
00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:15,800
Speaker 6: to take a couple of years to work out this case,

318
00:16:16,600 --> 00:16:19,080
Speaker 6: but in the meantime they'll be able to make an

319
00:16:19,160 --> 00:16:22,800
Speaker 6: argument in the final six to eight weeks of the

320
00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:28,120
Speaker 6: campaign stretch run that the former president is a multiply

321
00:16:28,240 --> 00:16:30,960
Speaker 6: convicted felon who's looking at a prison sentence. I think

322
00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:32,760
Speaker 6: that's what they want to accomplish.

323
00:16:32,800 --> 00:16:35,520
Speaker 4: So just so we can, just so we're all on

324
00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:36,120
Speaker 4: the same page.

325
00:16:36,120 --> 00:16:37,920
Speaker 3: And by the way, Andy's piece up at Fox News

326
00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:40,120
Speaker 3: is prepare for Trump to be sentenced to prison on

327
00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:41,120
Speaker 3: September eighteenth.

328
00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:43,760
Speaker 4: So you're not mentioning words.

329
00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:47,960
Speaker 3: Here, Andy, It would be if, assuming your analysis is correct,

330
00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:51,880
Speaker 3: Judge Mershawn would say, you know, I think that you

331
00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:54,320
Speaker 3: know you should get under the statutes, blah blah, Judge

332
00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:55,880
Speaker 3: talk eighteen.

333
00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:57,360
Speaker 4: Months at Reiker's Island.

334
00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:02,560
Speaker 3: Trump doesn't get transferred into custody though, because there's an

335
00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:05,480
Speaker 3: immediate appeal, Like, how does that you know what I'm saying,

336
00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:06,840
Speaker 3: how does that part of or how does he know

337
00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:09,080
Speaker 3: that he doesn't actually get sent to testent? Is that

338
00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:12,840
Speaker 3: Judge Merschaan's call that he's out pending appeal right away?

339
00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:13,720
Speaker 2: Yeah?

340
00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:18,720
Speaker 6: My understanding, Buck, is that new York works a little

341
00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:22,800
Speaker 6: bit different than the federal system does. In the federal system,

342
00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:27,960
Speaker 6: the judge who imposes sentence can grant bail pending appeal,

343
00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:34,040
Speaker 6: and there's a federal statute that applies where it lays

344
00:17:34,040 --> 00:17:36,080
Speaker 6: out a test for what you have to show in

345
00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:40,960
Speaker 6: order to get bail pending appeal. The state systems a

346
00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:44,800
Speaker 6: little bit different because the appellate court frequently is the

347
00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:48,360
Speaker 6: one that grants bail pending appeal. But in New York

348
00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:50,919
Speaker 6: it's almost an automatic that you get bail pending appeal.

349
00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:53,240
Speaker 6: In particular, if it's a case like this one, which

350
00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:57,800
Speaker 6: is a non violent crime. Let's remember Braggs jurisdiction. People

351
00:17:57,800 --> 00:18:01,680
Speaker 6: don't get prosecuted for stuff like this. People sometimes don't

352
00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:06,040
Speaker 6: get prosecuted even for violent crimes because of the way

353
00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:10,800
Speaker 6: that New York weirdly defines violent crimes that I think

354
00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:13,120
Speaker 6: you and I if we were on the receiving end

355
00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:15,080
Speaker 6: of some of the uses of force that they think

356
00:18:15,119 --> 00:18:18,080
Speaker 6: are non violent crimes, we might beg to differ. But

357
00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:22,080
Speaker 6: it's virtually an automatic that he's going to get bail

358
00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:24,520
Speaker 6: pending appeal. And if the judge did something crazy like

359
00:18:24,560 --> 00:18:26,919
Speaker 6: try to put him in immediately. I think they get

360
00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:29,920
Speaker 6: an instant appeal and he'd be allowed to stay out

361
00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:33,520
Speaker 6: pending appeal. So I don't think the Democrats are going

362
00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:35,080
Speaker 6: to I don't think the judge is going to fight that.

363
00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:36,960
Speaker 6: I don't think brag is going to fight that. What

364
00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:41,240
Speaker 6: they want is the campaign rhetoric. They don't really expect

365
00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:44,040
Speaker 6: that Trump's actually going to be in a prison cell.

366
00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:45,480
Speaker 4: Well, can I ask you to take it, take it

367
00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:46,080
Speaker 4: a few steps?

368
00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:49,399
Speaker 3: I totally agree, and I think that I think I

369
00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:52,639
Speaker 3: think every listening agrees as well, that they want to

370
00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:54,679
Speaker 3: be able to just hammer Trump in the final stretch

371
00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:56,760
Speaker 3: of the election as a criminal and Kamala is the

372
00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:59,639
Speaker 3: prosecutor and should prosecute the case against Trump. You know,

373
00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:02,919
Speaker 3: we all know how this is going to go. But

374
00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:05,959
Speaker 3: in terms of what happens, let's just say Trump loses.

375
00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:07,960
Speaker 3: I mean, which is not going to happen. Andy, I'm

376
00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:09,840
Speaker 3: assuring everybody Trump's going to win this thing, but let's

377
00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:10,639
Speaker 3: just say Trump loses.

378
00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:12,440
Speaker 4: For the purposes of discussion.

379
00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:16,680
Speaker 3: Are you entirely confident that the New York State Court

380
00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:19,840
Speaker 3: of Appeals is going to step in in a major

381
00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:22,919
Speaker 3: way and help Trump out on this, because to me,

382
00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:25,159
Speaker 3: It's like, well, if the New York City judge at

383
00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:28,000
Speaker 3: the lower level was this bad, why do we think

384
00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:29,520
Speaker 3: the appeals judges would be much better.

385
00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:31,160
Speaker 4: I'm just wondering what your take is on that.

386
00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:35,399
Speaker 6: My take, book is, first of all, it's going to

387
00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:38,560
Speaker 6: take a long time. It's going to take probably two

388
00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:43,080
Speaker 6: to three years, just because it's a very slow system.

389
00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:46,160
Speaker 6: And what people should know about the New York system

390
00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:52,280
Speaker 6: is it is highly highly political, but more political the

391
00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:55,720
Speaker 6: lower down you are in the system, so that as

392
00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:57,760
Speaker 6: you go up to the Appellate Division and the Court

393
00:19:57,800 --> 00:20:02,199
Speaker 6: of Appeals, you actually get some real judges who actually

394
00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:08,040
Speaker 6: are interested in doing the job of enforcement. Yes, and

395
00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:11,960
Speaker 6: as a result, you know, for example, Harvey Weinstein, it

396
00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:14,320
Speaker 6: took well, it take three years between the time he

397
00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:16,399
Speaker 6: got tried and the time he got sentenced. But the

398
00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:21,840
Speaker 6: High Court in New York actually threw out the convictions

399
00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:26,280
Speaker 6: of Harvey Weinstein, which you know, he's comparable to Trump

400
00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:29,639
Speaker 6: in the you know, in the degree of demagoguery that

401
00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:35,240
Speaker 6: surrounded that prosecution. But it wasn't outrageous. It was objectively

402
00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:38,080
Speaker 6: as you get pass what you thought of Harvey Weinstein,

403
00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:41,680
Speaker 6: it was an objectively unjust awful case, and they came

404
00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:45,280
Speaker 6: out to the right results. And if you look fuck

405
00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:49,760
Speaker 6: even in the civil case against Trump, the other travesty

406
00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:54,760
Speaker 6: that was brought by Tiss James, the Appellate Division reversed

407
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:58,439
Speaker 6: Judge anger On a number of times on a number

408
00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:01,840
Speaker 6: of things, including most recently flashing the bond that Trump

409
00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:07,440
Speaker 6: had to post in order to continue to the appeal

410
00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:10,520
Speaker 6: without them being able to seize his property. So I

411
00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:12,640
Speaker 6: do think the judging gets better as you go up

412
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:17,040
Speaker 6: in the system. And that's important because there are I mean,

413
00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:19,800
Speaker 6: there's a slew of reverse of the larror in this case.

414
00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:23,920
Speaker 6: And frankly, if Judge Merchon wanted to be a real judge,

415
00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:26,920
Speaker 6: the case should be thrown out. The guilty verdict should

416
00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:30,320
Speaker 6: be thrown out because the Supreme Court in the immunity

417
00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:33,440
Speaker 6: case said that when you're dealing with official acts of

418
00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:36,560
Speaker 6: the president, it's not just that you can't prosecute an

419
00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:38,959
Speaker 6: official act as if it was a crime in and

420
00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:41,440
Speaker 6: of itself. With the Court said is you can't even

421
00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:45,040
Speaker 6: use it as evidence to prove acts or crimes that

422
00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:51,200
Speaker 6: aren't based on official acts. And here the DA obviously

423
00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:54,560
Speaker 6: offered a lot of evidence of acts that Trump took

424
00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:58,159
Speaker 6: as president and while president. They can't say they're not

425
00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:03,840
Speaker 6: official acts. The office actually put on as witnesses two

426
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:09,120
Speaker 6: of Trump's White House staff, and they can't say that

427
00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:13,359
Speaker 6: that was unimportant testimony because insummation the prosecutors said it

428
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:17,880
Speaker 6: was devastating testimony. So I think just on the basis

429
00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:21,000
Speaker 6: of that, he should have vacated the guilty verdicts. But

430
00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:22,880
Speaker 6: you know, he should have done a lot of things

431
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:24,680
Speaker 6: under the law that he didn't do. And I think

432
00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:27,119
Speaker 6: the reasons for that is this is a political exercise,

433
00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:28,200
Speaker 6: not a legal one.

434
00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:32,080
Speaker 3: He also has conflicted himself, right, He's given to give

435
00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:36,240
Speaker 3: money to the Biden campaign and also has a daughter

436
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:38,840
Speaker 3: who's a Democrat activist who's making more money now than

437
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:39,399
Speaker 3: ever before.

438
00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:41,320
Speaker 4: I mean, he should have recused himself.

439
00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm glad you asked about that, because there's a

440
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:46,879
Speaker 6: couple of things about that that really need to be

441
00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:50,879
Speaker 6: pushed back on. You know. One is, whenever he gets

442
00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:54,879
Speaker 6: called on this, he waives around this advisory opinion that

443
00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:57,920
Speaker 6: he got from some judicial ethics channel in New York

444
00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:01,639
Speaker 6: that said that his campaign contribution were negligible in terms

445
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:04,240
Speaker 6: of the low dollar amount and therefore it was too

446
00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:07,840
Speaker 6: deminimous to disqualify them. I would point out two things

447
00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 6: on this which I really wish, you know, we'd hear

448
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:16,439
Speaker 6: more of from the Trump camp. One is, when someone

449
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:20,520
Speaker 6: makes a small dollar amount, you're not a contribution. You're

450
00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:25,280
Speaker 6: not making that contribution in order to help the candidate win, right,

451
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 6: A fifteen dollars.

452
00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:30,680
Speaker 3: Contribution is no, you're doing it for yourself to show

453
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:33,040
Speaker 3: what team you're on exactly.

454
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:35,920
Speaker 6: And that's to me, in many ways that's just as

455
00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:41,240
Speaker 6: important when you're talking about a judge, especially as giving

456
00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:44,600
Speaker 6: a big contribution. The other thing is just it's and

457
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:47,760
Speaker 6: you you it has been great writing about this. It's

458
00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:53,360
Speaker 6: just slightly a violation of New York law. Under New

459
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:58,439
Speaker 6: York judicial ethics law, they're not allowed to give campaign contributions.

460
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:01,679
Speaker 6: They're not supposed to do it. He apparently merch On

461
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:05,560
Speaker 6: got reprimanded for that. There's a letter about it, but

462
00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:09,800
Speaker 6: he won't release it. So I think that's like, to me,

463
00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 6: that should be a very big deal. And as you

464
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:16,159
Speaker 6: point out, Lauren merch On, the judge's daughter, is not

465
00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:20,400
Speaker 6: only a progressive political operative who does lucrative campaign work

466
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:24,600
Speaker 6: for top Democrats who define themselves by their opposition to Trump.

467
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:29,160
Speaker 6: Her number one client out in California is Kamala Harris.

468
00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:32,400
Speaker 6: So you know, it's hard to and.

469
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:35,000
Speaker 3: This is also under a I mean, I just I

470
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 3: know it's some some libs and some of the talking

471
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:39,359
Speaker 3: heads out there would say to this, but it only

472
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 3: has to look bad, right, That's it's the appearance of impropriety.

473
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 3: It's not actually, you know, it's not the judges taking bribes.

474
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:47,760
Speaker 3: It's I don't think the judge can be honest because

475
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:48,280
Speaker 3: of these.

476
00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:52,480
Speaker 6: Conflicts, right, And the reasons for that buck is very obvious.

477
00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:58,360
Speaker 6: The legitimacy of the outcomes of the justice system depend

478
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 6: on the perception of people that the system is on

479
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:04,359
Speaker 6: the up and up. So even if a judge is

480
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:09,359
Speaker 6: absolutely confident that he could be fair and objective, and

481
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 6: I'm sure in his own mind march On believes this,

482
00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 6: even though it seems clear to me that he's a

483
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 6: very political actor, it doesn't matter whether he actually did

484
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:24,080
Speaker 6: do things that a conflicted person would do. All that

485
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:27,119
Speaker 6: matters is that there's enough evidence there to make people

486
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:30,920
Speaker 6: wonder whether this is all legitimate or not, whether whether

487
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:34,879
Speaker 6: he's really an objective jurist or not. And if you

488
00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:37,960
Speaker 6: look at the decisions that were made in this prosecution,

489
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:41,959
Speaker 6: the judicial decisions from the pre trial stage through to

490
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:45,560
Speaker 6: the point where we're at now, all of the bad decisions,

491
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:48,520
Speaker 6: and there are many, all went in one direction.

492
00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:52,280
Speaker 3: Well, it's like the media's lies about Trump. Whenever they

493
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 3: get something wrong, it's really bad for Trump, right, it's

494
00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 3: never a story they have to retract.

495
00:25:57,840 --> 00:25:59,920
Speaker 4: They're like, Trump's a great guy. Actually, who knew?

496
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:03,439
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, you can play the odds all this and

497
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 3: know exactly what's going on. So andy you think he's

498
00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:09,960
Speaker 3: going We're I mean, I think you're probably right, given

499
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:14,159
Speaker 3: the fact that he gets to sentence him without actually

500
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:18,399
Speaker 3: incarcerating him. If that's true, I can't because otherwise if

501
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:20,320
Speaker 3: he gives him probation, it's like, why do you bring

502
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:23,240
Speaker 3: this case in the first place, you know, And.

503
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:28,119
Speaker 6: Let's let's remember book. They pitched this as set of

504
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 6: the most important job on the planet, the most consequential

505
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:36,359
Speaker 6: political position in the country in the minds of the

506
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:39,120
Speaker 6: people who are engaged in this, which would be march

507
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:42,639
Speaker 6: On and Bragg's office. This is not a penny Ati

508
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:47,560
Speaker 6: falsification of business records case. This is Trump conspired to

509
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:50,399
Speaker 6: steal the presidency and he achieved it.

510
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:53,159
Speaker 3: Have you ever have you ever seen at a at

511
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:58,160
Speaker 3: a high level of public interest, Andy, A a trial

512
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 3: like this that is just such a sham. I mean,

513
00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:05,000
Speaker 3: is this the most absurd criminal justice proceeding at this

514
00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:07,720
Speaker 3: kind of level of public scrutiny that you've ever seen?

515
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:08,800
Speaker 4: Have you ever seen anything worse?

516
00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:13,200
Speaker 6: Yes? No, I've never seen anything worse. And as you know, Buck,

517
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 6: I'm hardly in the tank for Trump. But the only

518
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:19,080
Speaker 6: thing that I could say that's even comparable is the

519
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:20,359
Speaker 6: civil case against Trump.

520
00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:25,399
Speaker 3: So the two worst cases, the two biggest miscarriages of

521
00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 3: justice from the justice system at this level you've ever

522
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:30,960
Speaker 3: seen in terms of the process and the abuse would

523
00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:33,960
Speaker 3: be against Trump. That's astonishing, guys, Clayanbuck dot com. Andy's

524
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:36,720
Speaker 3: piece is linked up there, go read it. Andy McCarthy,

525
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:38,240
Speaker 3: the one and only Andy. Thanks for making the time

526
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:38,800
Speaker 3: for us today.

527
00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:39,920
Speaker 6: Thank you Buck.

528
00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:46,320
Speaker 7: If you're listening to twenty four The Year of Impact

529
00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:47,520
Speaker 7: with Clay.

530
00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:52,960
Speaker 3: And Buck, I'm happy to say that increasingly I find

531
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:57,439
Speaker 3: myself a voice of comfort, calm, and reason for so

532
00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:02,119
Speaker 3: many of my conservative friends out there. Uh, probably not

533
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:04,800
Speaker 3: gonna tell anybody names, not gonna name the names. I'm

534
00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 3: getting people texting me saying, why are you so confident?

535
00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:10,840
Speaker 3: How can you be so confident that Trump will win?

536
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:15,439
Speaker 3: And I don't know. Just go with my gut. I

537
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:17,720
Speaker 3: feel it, feel it in my bones, I feel it

538
00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:20,080
Speaker 3: in my toes, I feel it in my soul. I

539
00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 3: believe in Trump. I believe in the movement. And I

540
00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:30,480
Speaker 3: know that right now they're trying so hard to make

541
00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:35,479
Speaker 3: everybody out there doubt that Donald Trump can win. And

542
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:38,120
Speaker 3: I will not fall into that trap. We will look

543
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:40,680
Speaker 3: at these numbers. We will look at the data as

544
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:44,320
Speaker 3: it stands now, but also put it in the proper context,

545
00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 3: look at the timeline, look at the momentum and what

546
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:52,480
Speaker 3: lies ahead. This is a show where we take a

547
00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 3: deep breath and make sure that we are firmly rooted

548
00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:01,040
Speaker 3: in reality. We'll elso discuss later on what is the

549
00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:04,040
Speaker 3: Harris Walls foreign policy? My friend Bridge called the brilliant Guy,

550
00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:07,200
Speaker 3: And just random side note, I think when Bridge was

551
00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:10,520
Speaker 3: at Yale Law School and working in DC for the

552
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:14,120
Speaker 3: first time, we used to drink together twenty years ago

553
00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 3: in DC when I.

554
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:16,680
Speaker 4: Was a young CIA officer.

555
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 3: So here we are decades later and we get to

556
00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:20,680
Speaker 3: hang out on the radio and talk to a few

557
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:22,800
Speaker 3: million of our closest friends. It's amazing, what a small

558
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:29,640
Speaker 3: world it is. We've also got unions. Are they union membership?

559
00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 3: Not the leadership, the membership? Are they starting to go

560
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 3: for Donald Trump? Cover a New York Post five billion

561
00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:41,880
Speaker 3: dollars spent on migrants in New York City?

562
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:46,840
Speaker 4: Five billion. That's that's where we are now.

563
00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:51,959
Speaker 3: So you have trouble looking at your gas and food

564
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 3: and rent payments and not having your eyeballs fall out

565
00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 3: of your head. Meanwhile, the taxes, and this is especially

566
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 3: for our you owe our listeners and NYC, the taxes

567
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 3: you are paying to New York and in the New

568
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:10,600
Speaker 3: York City Metro are being funneled to make sure that

569
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:17,840
Speaker 3: illegals are living in four star hotels with culturally sensitive

570
00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:22,160
Speaker 3: meals prepared for them, debit cards handed to them in

571
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 3: some cases with money on it, and all the rest

572
00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:29,120
Speaker 3: of it. And horrible crimes being committed by some of

573
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:32,560
Speaker 3: these migrants. I meant to get to the story yesterday.

574
00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 3: I'll get to it today. What happened down in Coney Island.

575
00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:38,640
Speaker 3: I mean, I think should be a death penalty offense.

576
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:40,640
Speaker 3: Of course, that's not going to happen in New York.

577
00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:45,400
Speaker 3: But the violent rape of a woman by two illegals,

578
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:47,920
Speaker 3: one of whom had already committed a violent sexual assault,

579
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:50,160
Speaker 3: somehow not kicked out of the country. You know, I

580
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:53,960
Speaker 3: want to dive into that story. And also another multiple

581
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 3: time offender, this one I believe in the Boston area

582
00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:02,280
Speaker 3: raped a child, the girl, young girl, the fourteen years old.

583
00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:07,240
Speaker 3: I think it was a fifteen years old and should

584
00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 3: have been deported, wasn't deported.

585
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:09,480
Speaker 4: And you will not.

586
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:15,680
Speaker 3: Believe what the Boston police have done with this guy,

587
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:19,920
Speaker 3: despite ice, immigrations and customs enforcements saying hey, can you

588
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 3: hold on to the.

589
00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 4: Serial sexual predator.

590
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:24,280
Speaker 3: We would like to get rid of him from this

591
00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 3: country and send him back because he's an illegal.

592
00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 4: What do you think Boston PD did? We're going to

593
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:33,040
Speaker 4: get into all that. I will never.

594
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:40,320
Speaker 3: Forget our focus here on immigration and illegal immigration, as

595
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:46,640
Speaker 3: alongside the debt and the just Leviathan federal government, we

596
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:50,720
Speaker 3: have the biggest long term challenge that the country faces

597
00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:55,719
Speaker 3: to stay as it is so entered, to stay a

598
00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:59,880
Speaker 3: free republic based on a constitution and with a shared culture,

599
00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 3: a shared history.

600
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 4: And yes, a shared language.

601
00:32:03,320 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 3: These are all important, critical things, actually critical building blocks

602
00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:09,640
Speaker 3: for our society. And if they kick at the load

603
00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 3: bearing walls of our civilization as they are doing without

604
00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:15,560
Speaker 3: us pushing back, we all know what will happen. But

605
00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:19,600
Speaker 3: I wanted to get into this now because I'm happy

606
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:26,320
Speaker 3: to calm those who are worried and to tell them

607
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:28,520
Speaker 3: that it's gonna be okay.

608
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:30,440
Speaker 4: Trump's gonna win.

609
00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 3: And if Trump doesn't win, it's you know, we'll figure

610
00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:34,800
Speaker 3: that out too, But I mean, it's gonna be okay.

611
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 3: Trump's gonna win this thing, all right. I have I

612
00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:41,800
Speaker 3: have faith that he's gonna win, and he's gonna win solidly.

613
00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:42,160
Speaker 4: I think.

614
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:45,120
Speaker 3: I'll tell you this it mark this prediction down. I

615
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:47,120
Speaker 3: think he's gonna beat Kamala Harris by more than he

616
00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 3: beat Hillary Clinton in twenty sixteen.

617
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:53,840
Speaker 4: There you go. Who would have seen that coming? Right?

618
00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 3: Remember what we felt like in twenty sixteen. I think

619
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:58,600
Speaker 3: he will beat Kamala Harris in the electoral college by

620
00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:00,920
Speaker 3: a wider margin than he beat Hillary Clinton. I think

621
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:04,280
Speaker 3: that will actually happen this time. Can call me crazy,

622
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:08,400
Speaker 3: you can call me crazy, but I think that that's possible.

623
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:11,560
Speaker 4: Maybe that's too bold of a prediction, but I do

624
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:12,440
Speaker 4: think he's gonna win.

625
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:15,720
Speaker 3: Maybe I'm walking back my prediction right now as I'm

626
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:18,680
Speaker 3: thinking about the numbers in my head, but I do

627
00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:20,720
Speaker 3: think he's gonna win. I believe he's gonna win, and

628
00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:22,600
Speaker 3: I think it is rooted in the data. Let's let's

629
00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:27,440
Speaker 3: get into this, okay. First of all, CNN, Harry Engine. Look,

630
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:29,920
Speaker 3: CNN is doing everything they can to make sure that

631
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:37,200
Speaker 3: the the Harris campaign feels and sounds like it has momentum. Remember,

632
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 3: she's not even really campaigning. The media is campaigning for her.

633
00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:48,960
Speaker 3: The media is campaigning for her. Now, CNN's data guy

634
00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:52,240
Speaker 3: said this, This was yesterday, and I'm gonna get to

635
00:33:52,280 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 3: what he's said more recently about this. This is yesterday

636
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:58,560
Speaker 3: on CNN News Central. Looking at this New York Times

637
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:01,960
Speaker 3: Ciena pull But I'm here to tell you don't worry

638
00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:03,080
Speaker 3: about this poll, all right.

639
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 4: I don't want to be clear. I don't look at

640
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:05,520
Speaker 4: the poles every day.

641
00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:06,240
Speaker 8: Oh I'm scared.

642
00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 2: What are we gonna do?

643
00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 4: It's gonna be fine.

644
00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 3: Here is this guy, Harry Entin, talking about Kamala Harris

645
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:16,400
Speaker 3: and how Democrats shouldn't be over confident in this twenty

646
00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:17,120
Speaker 3: three play it.

647
00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:19,800
Speaker 8: In those states that I mentioned, those great Lake battleground states.

648
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:23,400
Speaker 8: Trump was underestimated by nine points on average at this

649
00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:26,080
Speaker 8: point in twenty sixteen. How about twenty twenty, it wasn't

650
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:28,920
Speaker 8: a one off look at this he was underestimated by five.

651
00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 4: Points on average.

652
00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:32,400
Speaker 8: And of course Kamala Harris's advantage in those New York

653
00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:35,040
Speaker 8: Times Santa College poles were four points in each of

654
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:39,080
Speaker 8: these key battleground states Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. The bottom line

655
00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:41,560
Speaker 8: is this, if you have any idea, if you're a

656
00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:43,799
Speaker 8: Kamala Harris fan and you want to rip open the

657
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 8: champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it. Donald

658
00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:49,360
Speaker 8: Trump is very much in this race. If we have

659
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:52,640
Speaker 8: a polling shift like we've seen in prior years from

660
00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:55,160
Speaker 8: now until the final result, donald Trump would actually win.

661
00:34:55,200 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 8: I'm not saying that's gonna happen, but I am saying

662
00:34:57,719 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 8: that he is very much in this ballgame. Based up

663
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:01,480
Speaker 8: hung where he is right now and compare that to

664
00:35:01,480 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 8: where he was in prior years.

665
00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:07,080
Speaker 3: He's in a better spot than he's been in in

666
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:10,200
Speaker 3: prior years. I will say I retract my he'll beat

667
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:13,279
Speaker 3: her by more than Hillary twenty sixteen, as I'm looking

668
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:17,000
Speaker 3: at the electoral map. I had forgotten I was going

669
00:35:17,000 --> 00:35:19,359
Speaker 3: off the cuff there. I had forgotten that Trump ran

670
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:23,080
Speaker 3: the table across the Midwest in twenty sixteen. It was

671
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:27,040
Speaker 3: remarkable when you look back at it this time around.

672
00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm trying to think of what he could

673
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:32,920
Speaker 3: win this time that he didn't win in twenty sixteen.

674
00:35:34,120 --> 00:35:36,080
Speaker 3: The only thing that really looks like it could have

675
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:38,480
Speaker 3: would be Virginia. But I think Kamala's going to win Virginia.

676
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:43,400
Speaker 3: In fact, Kamala maybe in some ways a better candidate

677
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:45,960
Speaker 3: than Biden was for the state of Virginia. So scratch

678
00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:47,759
Speaker 3: that one from the record. But I do think that

679
00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:48,480
Speaker 3: he's going to win.

680
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:49,400
Speaker 2: I do.

681
00:35:49,680 --> 00:35:53,560
Speaker 3: Maybe he will replicate the twenty sixteen electoral map. That

682
00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:58,840
Speaker 3: would be a best case scenario. If he can win Pennsylvania,

683
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:02,799
Speaker 3: he can win Oh no, I'm sorry, Nevada. There we

684
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:06,040
Speaker 3: go Nevada. I'm looking at the twenty sixteen map right now.

685
00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:09,040
Speaker 3: He could pick up Nevada, which he didn't pick up

686
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:11,040
Speaker 3: in twenty sixteen, So that would.

687
00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:13,200
Speaker 4: Be the one that would be a surprise. Am I

688
00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:15,440
Speaker 4: missing anything that else is really on the table? I

689
00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:19,239
Speaker 4: don't think so see I knew there was something, but yeah,

690
00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:19,600
Speaker 4: I think.

691
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:21,719
Speaker 3: That he'll get close to what he did before. I

692
00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:23,319
Speaker 3: think the map may look very similar to did in

693
00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:26,080
Speaker 3: twenty sixteen. That would be amazing, but I think it's

694
00:36:26,160 --> 00:36:28,680
Speaker 3: very possible. I think they're trying to tell you Harris

695
00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:30,720
Speaker 3: is in a much stronger position than she is because

696
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:34,879
Speaker 3: they have to shape perception right away. And I think

697
00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 3: that the the CNN numbers guru there when he's telling

698
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:43,680
Speaker 3: you that they've underestimated Trump's strength in the Midwest in

699
00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:48,600
Speaker 3: the past, I think that they're doing that again. That's

700
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:53,399
Speaker 3: very likely. And here's why. Comes down to the white

701
00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:59,520
Speaker 3: working class voter. And I cannot foresee a situation where Trump,

702
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:03,359
Speaker 3: rather where Harris does better with those Midwestern white working

703
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:07,560
Speaker 3: class voters than Joe Biden did. So now we're focusing

704
00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:10,759
Speaker 3: back on twenty twenty instead of twenty sixteen. Our friend

705
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:13,600
Speaker 3: Ryan Gerdusky put this one out. For example, in twenty

706
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:18,160
Speaker 3: sixteen and twenty twenty, Trump won whites without a college

707
00:37:18,200 --> 00:37:25,280
Speaker 3: degree by thirty six points and thirty two points. So there,

708
00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:28,360
Speaker 3: and Ryan says, quote, there's no way she sliced his

709
00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:30,600
Speaker 3: lead with those voters in half. It just didn't happen.

710
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:33,480
Speaker 3: I've talked to Ryan about this. I totally agree. I

711
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:36,160
Speaker 3: do not believe that there's been some huge search for

712
00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:40,120
Speaker 3: this New York Times Siena poll. To be accurate, there

713
00:37:40,120 --> 00:37:48,240
Speaker 3: would have to be a huge surge of white working

714
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:50,800
Speaker 3: class support for Kamala Harris. I do not I just

715
00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 3: don't buy it. I don't buy it. But they know

716
00:37:53,239 --> 00:37:55,279
Speaker 3: people like me have been saying, why is Trump gonna

717
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 3: win white working class voters? So this is the way

718
00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:02,319
Speaker 3: that the numbers can come out look really strong for Harris.

719
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:08,440
Speaker 4: I think that this is another thing from CNN.

720
00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:13,240
Speaker 3: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin voters. This is a percentage of the electorate. Okay,

721
00:38:13,920 --> 00:38:18,960
Speaker 3: black or Hispanic in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. What do you

722
00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:21,160
Speaker 3: think the percentage of black and Hispanic voters in those

723
00:38:21,160 --> 00:38:29,960
Speaker 3: states is overall? Thirteen percent college educated white voters twenty

724
00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:35,440
Speaker 3: seven percent in those states of the electorate non college

725
00:38:35,600 --> 00:38:41,480
Speaker 3: educated white voters in those states fifty percent of the electorate.

726
00:38:43,000 --> 00:38:47,000
Speaker 3: That half of the electorate determines this election, and a

727
00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:50,080
Speaker 3: few percentage points in that half of the electorate in

728
00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:55,160
Speaker 3: those swing states is going to be determinative. I hope

729
00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:57,840
Speaker 3: the Trump team is listening. I hope they're on the

730
00:38:57,840 --> 00:38:59,719
Speaker 3: ball on point on this one. I hope they're ready

731
00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 3: to go, because the numbers are very clear here. You know,

732
00:39:04,920 --> 00:39:06,840
Speaker 3: I'm going to tell you this Trump team in twenty

733
00:39:06,920 --> 00:39:09,600
Speaker 3: twenty really focused on trying to turn.

734
00:39:09,480 --> 00:39:10,959
Speaker 4: Out a little more in the black vote, a little

735
00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:12,839
Speaker 4: more of the Hispanic vote.

736
00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:16,320
Speaker 3: Wasn't a path to victory, wasn't a path of victory,

737
00:39:16,360 --> 00:39:19,240
Speaker 3: and didn't work, not a not any meaningful way. Obviously,

738
00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:23,360
Speaker 3: Biden's been president for four years, so this time around,

739
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:27,480
Speaker 3: the focus on white working class voters and voter turnout

740
00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:32,000
Speaker 3: among that group is the pathway to victory. So for

741
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:37,480
Speaker 3: those of you listening in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, who are truckers,

742
00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:41,680
Speaker 3: who are plumbers, who are contractors, who are and assuming

743
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:44,000
Speaker 3: you're falling into that non college educated, which some of

744
00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:46,600
Speaker 3: you do, some of you don't, but the trades, those

745
00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:48,520
Speaker 3: who make a living with their hands, right.

746
00:39:48,480 --> 00:39:51,560
Speaker 4: Not white collar office workers.

747
00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:55,160
Speaker 3: You get to determine whether Kamala Harris is the president

748
00:39:55,280 --> 00:39:56,600
Speaker 3: or Donald Trump is the president.

749
00:39:57,080 --> 00:39:58,600
Speaker 4: Really, that's what this comes down to.

750
00:39:58,800 --> 00:40:00,920
Speaker 3: So it's a lot of power in your hands and

751
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:03,080
Speaker 3: your friends and your colleagues and your family.

752
00:40:02,760 --> 00:40:06,440
Speaker 4: Members in those states. That is where it really matters.

753
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:08,759
Speaker 3: Right now, they're trying to claim Kamala Harris has made

754
00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:10,880
Speaker 3: a huge has made huge inroads with those voters.

755
00:40:11,040 --> 00:40:11,839
Speaker 4: Let's return to.

756
00:40:11,840 --> 00:40:17,239
Speaker 3: That in a moment. I'm open to they just the

757
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:21,360
Speaker 3: poll isn't very good as an argument, but I also

758
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 3: feel like that's a little too convenient, isn't it. They're

759
00:40:24,200 --> 00:40:28,840
Speaker 3: suddenly running these really really important numbers that are skewing

760
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:32,239
Speaker 3: toward Harris in this way. I'm just I was thinking

761
00:40:32,239 --> 00:40:34,799
Speaker 3: about twenty sixteen. I'm getting a twenty sixteen tingle here.

762
00:40:36,520 --> 00:40:38,640
Speaker 3: And I understand, up to this point, we've said the polls,

763
00:40:38,680 --> 00:40:41,400
Speaker 3: the polls, the polls. Well, yeah, but that's because both sides.

764
00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:45,480
Speaker 3: It was understandable that both sides would see the polls

765
00:40:45,520 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 3: as accurate because they wanted Biden to be gone, and

766
00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:51,160
Speaker 3: it was so obvious that they couldn't. You can shade

767
00:40:51,200 --> 00:40:57,160
Speaker 3: things four percent, three percent, you know, maybe maybe five percent,

768
00:40:58,000 --> 00:41:00,279
Speaker 3: you can't. Biden was falling off a cliff. I mean,

769
00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:03,719
Speaker 3: Biden was going to lose New Jersey. So yeah, there's

770
00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:06,080
Speaker 3: no there's no way that you can cover that up

771
00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:10,000
Speaker 3: in polling data. But right now, are they playing around

772
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:10,839
Speaker 3: with the numbers.

773
00:41:10,560 --> 00:41:11,040
Speaker 2: A little bit.

774
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:14,200
Speaker 3: Well, they're playing they're changing everything about Harris's record, They're

775
00:41:14,239 --> 00:41:16,200
Speaker 3: hiding her from the public, They're doing everything they can

776
00:41:16,280 --> 00:41:19,040
Speaker 3: to make sure that she's the president, no matter what

777
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:26,439
Speaker 3: kind of de seit dissembling lies that they have to tell.

778
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:30,319
Speaker 3: So will they manipulate the numbers the data, Yeah, I'm

779
00:41:30,400 --> 00:41:31,040
Speaker 3: sure they will.

780
00:41:31,120 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 4: Let's get into this. I want to hear your thoughts

781
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:33,200
Speaker 4: on this as well.

782
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:35,880
Speaker 3: And also we're going to talk about Tim Walls and

783
00:41:36,200 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 3: what he did during the BLM riots. Yeah, police officers

784
00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:42,360
Speaker 3: shooting at people with paintball guns to get them to

785
00:41:42,360 --> 00:41:44,239
Speaker 3: go inside when they were just standing outside of their

786
00:41:44,239 --> 00:41:47,520
Speaker 3: own homes, on their own property. This guy, this guy's

787
00:41:47,520 --> 00:41:54,600
Speaker 3: a totalitarian wacko. Tim Walls is a totalitarian wacko. So

788
00:41:54,640 --> 00:41:58,680
Speaker 3: we're talking about how Trump wins that's maybe the theme

789
00:41:58,719 --> 00:42:03,960
Speaker 3: of today's show. How Trump wins white working class voters Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

790
00:42:05,680 --> 00:42:07,919
Speaker 3: Will Trump run the table in those states and also

791
00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:10,239
Speaker 3: throw Nevada in the mix, in which case he would

792
00:42:10,239 --> 00:42:14,719
Speaker 3: actually get more than he did in twenty sixteen, And

793
00:42:14,719 --> 00:42:17,240
Speaker 3: that would be amazing. And I do think it's possible.

794
00:42:17,360 --> 00:42:20,719
Speaker 3: I think it's possible. Maybe that's overly optimistic, but I

795
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:22,799
Speaker 3: don't know. I just got a feeling about this one,

796
00:42:23,160 --> 00:42:25,719
Speaker 3: and I don't usually just run with it like that, but.

797
00:42:25,680 --> 00:42:26,680
Speaker 4: I got a feeling about this one.

798
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:30,720
Speaker 3: I feel very confident, a quiet, cool confidence about Trump,

799
00:42:30,760 --> 00:42:34,520
Speaker 3: and it's based in the numbers. Now, same CNN guy

800
00:42:34,560 --> 00:42:37,360
Speaker 3: Harry Enton is out there telling everybody that Kamala is

801
00:42:39,000 --> 00:42:42,719
Speaker 3: surging with white working class voters. I want to talk

802
00:42:42,719 --> 00:42:43,239
Speaker 3: to you about this.

803
00:42:43,520 --> 00:42:46,520
Speaker 8: Play nine white working class voters, white voters without a

804
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:49,160
Speaker 8: college street. That is Donald Trump's core group. That was

805
00:42:49,200 --> 00:42:50,920
Speaker 8: the reason why he was able to break down that

806
00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:55,280
Speaker 8: giant blue wall Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, in the Great Lakes.

807
00:42:55,560 --> 00:42:57,480
Speaker 4: And look at their support.

808
00:42:57,000 --> 00:42:59,480
Speaker 8: Now versus where we were a few months ago when

809
00:42:59,560 --> 00:43:02,640
Speaker 8: the matchup between Johnald Trump and Joe Biden. Look, Donald

810
00:43:02,640 --> 00:43:05,239
Speaker 8: Trump still leads, but look at that margin. It has

811
00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:08,160
Speaker 8: shrunk significantly. It was twenty five points back in May.

812
00:43:08,360 --> 00:43:11,600
Speaker 8: It is now fourteen points now here in August, nearly been.

813
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:12,439
Speaker 4: Sliced by half.

814
00:43:12,520 --> 00:43:14,920
Speaker 8: Those numbers that Harris is putting up amongst that group

815
00:43:15,000 --> 00:43:18,160
Speaker 8: right now are actually slightly better than Joe Biden did

816
00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:20,840
Speaker 8: four years ago. Amongst those voters in those key states.

817
00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:23,399
Speaker 8: Those are the types of numbers that Kamala Harris needs

818
00:43:23,440 --> 00:43:24,680
Speaker 8: to put up in order to win.

819
00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:29,359
Speaker 4: She's not going to put up those numbers. Hey, Mark

820
00:43:29,400 --> 00:43:30,720
Speaker 4: my Wath, that's not going to happen.

821
00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:33,400
Speaker 3: You're not going to have Trump win whites without a

822
00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:37,520
Speaker 3: college degree by thirty six points in twenty sixteen and

823
00:43:37,640 --> 00:43:40,360
Speaker 3: thirty two points in twenty twenty, and then all of

824
00:43:40,400 --> 00:43:43,319
Speaker 3: a sudden he you know, he wins them by ten

825
00:43:43,400 --> 00:43:46,560
Speaker 3: points now because Kamala Harris is running no chance or

826
00:43:46,600 --> 00:43:49,719
Speaker 3: twelve points or whatever, they're saying, no chance, it's not

827
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:54,320
Speaker 3: going to happen. So I'm not buying it. And because

828
00:43:54,360 --> 00:43:56,280
Speaker 3: I'm not buying it, still very confident.

829
00:43:58,280 --> 00:44:02,799
Speaker 7: If you're listening to twenty the Year of Impact with

830
00:44:02,920 --> 00:44:03,879
Speaker 7: Clay and Buck.

831
00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:07,480
Speaker 3: Let's talk to our friend Bridge Colby about this for

832
00:44:07,520 --> 00:44:10,960
Speaker 3: a moment. He is a principal of the marathon initiative

833
00:44:11,040 --> 00:44:14,840
Speaker 3: and he's also a former Pentagon official under the Trump administration.

834
00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:16,480
Speaker 4: Mister Bridge Colby, great to have you.

835
00:44:16,480 --> 00:44:18,160
Speaker 2: Back, Great to be with you.

836
00:44:18,880 --> 00:44:20,399
Speaker 4: All right, so let's start.

837
00:44:20,080 --> 00:44:22,960
Speaker 3: With the I think we can just take as a

838
00:44:23,000 --> 00:44:26,160
Speaker 3: given that there hasn't been a lot of specifics from

839
00:44:26,200 --> 00:44:29,239
Speaker 3: the Kamala campaign about what they're foreign.

840
00:44:28,960 --> 00:44:29,880
Speaker 4: Policy would be.

841
00:44:30,360 --> 00:44:33,520
Speaker 3: But if we're going to assume it is an extension

842
00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:38,799
Speaker 3: of the Biden policy and then add in whatever specifics

843
00:44:39,160 --> 00:44:43,120
Speaker 3: we can divine from the statements that have been made

844
00:44:43,200 --> 00:44:46,400
Speaker 3: on her behalf, Really, what do we know about what

845
00:44:46,520 --> 00:44:51,120
Speaker 3: a Kamala Harris Tim Wall's foreign policy would look like?

846
00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:53,719
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, we don't know much.

847
00:44:53,760 --> 00:44:55,440
Speaker 5: And don't take this from you and me. I think

848
00:44:55,480 --> 00:44:57,319
Speaker 5: the Wall Street Journal actually ran a piece like a

849
00:44:57,320 --> 00:45:01,000
Speaker 5: week or two ago saying people just don't know what

850
00:45:01,000 --> 00:45:03,880
Speaker 5: what she stands for. And of course she's you know, uh,

851
00:45:03,920 --> 00:45:06,000
Speaker 5: moving off of positions that she did take, so it's

852
00:45:06,040 --> 00:45:10,680
Speaker 5: really all speculation. What I would say is my read

853
00:45:10,960 --> 00:45:15,440
Speaker 5: is that she's basically going to be like closer to

854
00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:19,440
Speaker 5: a standard issue Democratic Party sort of activist of the

855
00:45:19,440 --> 00:45:22,440
Speaker 5: contemporary period. So I'm just, you know, cards.

856
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:22,680
Speaker 2: On the table.

857
00:45:22,800 --> 00:45:24,680
Speaker 5: Not a big fan of President Biden, said the least.

858
00:45:25,040 --> 00:45:28,080
Speaker 5: But President Biden you know, does kind of at least

859
00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:30,359
Speaker 5: he thinks of himself, and he tries to harken back

860
00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:33,040
Speaker 5: to sort of an earlier period. Obviously his you know,

861
00:45:33,239 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 5: historically his close relationship to Israel, the connection to NATO

862
00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:38,480
Speaker 5: and so forth. And if you look at some of

863
00:45:38,480 --> 00:45:44,040
Speaker 5: his top leadership, Jake Sullivan, John Finer, Kirk Campbell, Eli Rattner,

864
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:46,920
Speaker 5: Frank Kendall, a lot of these people, you know, I mean,

865
00:45:46,960 --> 00:45:49,120
Speaker 5: I'm my criticisms of them, but I you know, I

866
00:45:49,120 --> 00:45:52,400
Speaker 5: think they're not dreamy idealists, you know, to the to

867
00:45:52,440 --> 00:45:55,440
Speaker 5: the contrary. So I think Kamala Harris, what we can

868
00:45:55,520 --> 00:45:58,399
Speaker 5: see her top person, for instance, is a guy named

869
00:45:58,440 --> 00:46:01,600
Speaker 5: Phil Gordon. He was in the Obama administration, was in

870
00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:03,920
Speaker 5: the Clinton administration. You know. For instance, he signed a

871
00:46:04,000 --> 00:46:06,759
Speaker 5: letter that was put out in the Washington Post about

872
00:46:06,760 --> 00:46:09,520
Speaker 5: five years ago. And if you read the letter about China.

873
00:46:09,560 --> 00:46:11,080
Speaker 5: If you read the letter, a lot of it seems

874
00:46:11,160 --> 00:46:13,720
Speaker 5: kind of unobjectionable to it because they kind of create

875
00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:16,640
Speaker 5: fake straw men. But it was basically written to push

876
00:46:16,680 --> 00:46:20,120
Speaker 5: back on the shift on China that was happening under

877
00:46:20,120 --> 00:46:22,399
Speaker 5: the Trump administration that you know, Jake Sullivan and Kirk

878
00:46:22,440 --> 00:46:24,759
Speaker 5: Campbell and these guys have tried to take over. I mean,

879
00:46:24,800 --> 00:46:26,920
Speaker 5: we have a debate about who's better at it, but

880
00:46:27,440 --> 00:46:29,399
Speaker 5: that's what leads me to think like we should sort

881
00:46:29,440 --> 00:46:32,200
Speaker 5: of expect more like the center of this sort of

882
00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:35,320
Speaker 5: Democratic Party than what we've gotten even from Joe Biden,

883
00:46:35,360 --> 00:46:37,759
Speaker 5: which is which is pretty darn progressive, and so that

884
00:46:37,800 --> 00:46:39,759
Speaker 5: worries me, you know, I know she for instance, a

885
00:46:39,760 --> 00:46:41,440
Speaker 5: few years ago, she said she wants to cut the

886
00:46:41,480 --> 00:46:43,560
Speaker 5: defense budget. I mean, I'm not one of these people

887
00:46:43,719 --> 00:46:45,680
Speaker 5: is out there saying, which triple the defense budget? Been

888
00:46:45,719 --> 00:46:48,400
Speaker 5: cutting the defense budget in this time. That's pretty worrying.

889
00:46:48,400 --> 00:46:51,360
Speaker 5: So again, a lot of this is speculation and inference,

890
00:46:51,400 --> 00:46:53,719
Speaker 5: but I think she's going to be more sort of

891
00:46:53,760 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 5: progressive even than Biden.

892
00:46:55,640 --> 00:46:59,280
Speaker 3: I mean, I would offer, just from the political pugilist

893
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:03,520
Speaker 3: side of this equation, that it's supposed to be this

894
00:47:03,719 --> 00:47:06,080
Speaker 3: is what they want, which is that the foreign policy

895
00:47:07,400 --> 00:47:09,640
Speaker 3: is whatever they have to say it is in the minute,

896
00:47:09,640 --> 00:47:11,480
Speaker 3: and nobody actually knows what it is. So then it's

897
00:47:11,480 --> 00:47:13,040
Speaker 3: a harder target, do you know what I mean? It's

898
00:47:13,200 --> 00:47:15,080
Speaker 3: you know, you're you're sort of punching at the wind.

899
00:47:16,080 --> 00:47:18,640
Speaker 3: And and I think that that's a larger theme in

900
00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:22,399
Speaker 3: the campaign overall. But let's drill down then into into

901
00:47:22,440 --> 00:47:24,759
Speaker 3: reality on the here and now for a second, on

902
00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:25,800
Speaker 3: the foreign policy scene.

903
00:47:25,800 --> 00:47:28,240
Speaker 4: One thing that well, I'm a little bit surprised.

904
00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:31,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, mind if I say one thing just on that Peah,

905
00:47:31,480 --> 00:47:33,960
Speaker 5: of course, is just you know, look, I think you're

906
00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:36,640
Speaker 5: putting your finger on something, which is we are in

907
00:47:36,680 --> 00:47:40,440
Speaker 5: an exceptionally dangerous period where we've got a wild mismatch

908
00:47:40,800 --> 00:47:44,200
Speaker 5: between a rhetoric that Biden and others have gotten us

909
00:47:44,200 --> 00:47:46,640
Speaker 5: into and the fact that there are multiple wars around

910
00:47:46,800 --> 00:47:49,360
Speaker 5: around the world and the resources that we are putting

911
00:47:49,360 --> 00:47:51,200
Speaker 5: at a problem in terms of the defense budget and

912
00:47:51,239 --> 00:47:52,960
Speaker 5: so forth, and the American people are willing to put

913
00:47:52,960 --> 00:47:54,600
Speaker 5: it at the problem. The New York Times even was

914
00:47:54,600 --> 00:47:57,160
Speaker 5: reporting today that the Russians and Chinese are co op

915
00:47:57,160 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 5: collaborating more on military operations than ever before. And so

916
00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:03,439
Speaker 5: President Trump, I think, is putting something out there saying

917
00:48:03,440 --> 00:48:06,719
Speaker 5: we're in the verge of World War three. We need

918
00:48:06,760 --> 00:48:08,440
Speaker 5: to be strong, but we also need to use the

919
00:48:08,440 --> 00:48:12,239
Speaker 5: military sparingly, as I think the Platform correctly said, and

920
00:48:12,280 --> 00:48:14,240
Speaker 5: I mean I agree with that, but that's a serious

921
00:48:14,280 --> 00:48:16,800
Speaker 5: message in a very serious time. We don't have time

922
00:48:17,320 --> 00:48:19,640
Speaker 5: for this kind of fluff where people are just kind

923
00:48:19,640 --> 00:48:22,480
Speaker 5: of message testing it. We've got if you're going to

924
00:48:22,560 --> 00:48:25,400
Speaker 5: pursue the kind of ridiculous in my well, the overly

925
00:48:25,480 --> 00:48:28,400
Speaker 5: expansive Biden approach. You got to back that up with

926
00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:30,080
Speaker 5: big defense spending increases.

927
00:48:30,320 --> 00:48:31,360
Speaker 2: You got to do X y Z.

928
00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:33,400
Speaker 5: She's showing none of that, so she's not having a

929
00:48:33,400 --> 00:48:35,680
Speaker 5: political mandate, so she's you know, in a sense, like

930
00:48:35,880 --> 00:48:38,239
Speaker 5: the analogy I used, we're heading towards the Titanic, at

931
00:48:38,320 --> 00:48:41,280
Speaker 5: least offer us a way to not hit the iceberg,

932
00:48:41,560 --> 00:48:43,640
Speaker 5: and here we're just having to guess at what the

933
00:48:43,640 --> 00:48:47,040
Speaker 5: captain is proposing as we hurtle towards the iceberg. Whereas

934
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:49,680
Speaker 5: I think President Trump and Senator Vance are offering a

935
00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:52,680
Speaker 5: very clear and I think very common sense and the

936
00:48:52,800 --> 00:48:55,480
Speaker 5: right approach. But at minimum we should be able to evaluate.

937
00:48:55,520 --> 00:48:56,800
Speaker 5: Isn't that what democracy is about?

938
00:48:56,880 --> 00:49:00,200
Speaker 3: I mean, come on right, well, as you can see,

939
00:49:00,239 --> 00:49:03,359
Speaker 3: everyone can see, I think now pretty clearly on one

940
00:49:03,360 --> 00:49:07,400
Speaker 3: of the hotspot issues, which is Israel Hamas slash Hesbala

941
00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:12,520
Speaker 3: slash Iran. The Democrats that they want to just have

942
00:49:12,600 --> 00:49:15,040
Speaker 3: a deafening silence on this to degree they can right

943
00:49:15,040 --> 00:49:18,000
Speaker 3: before the election, because they can't have it both ways,

944
00:49:18,080 --> 00:49:20,080
Speaker 3: and for their electorate they need to have it both ways,

945
00:49:20,080 --> 00:49:20,640
Speaker 3: and that's.

946
00:49:20,480 --> 00:49:21,719
Speaker 4: That's gonna be a challenge for them.

947
00:49:21,760 --> 00:49:24,960
Speaker 3: We're speaking of Bridge Colby principle of the marathon initiative. Bridge,

948
00:49:25,600 --> 00:49:31,240
Speaker 3: tell me about this incursion into Kursk and the Ukraine

949
00:49:31,440 --> 00:49:32,880
Speaker 3: front and how this has changed.

950
00:49:33,160 --> 00:49:34,160
Speaker 4: Is this a big deal?

951
00:49:34,400 --> 00:49:37,000
Speaker 3: I'm actually a little surprised given all the you know,

952
00:49:37,080 --> 00:49:40,040
Speaker 3: Slava Ukraine and the flags and everything we see from Democrats.

953
00:49:40,080 --> 00:49:42,000
Speaker 3: There's not more talk about this right now, but I

954
00:49:42,000 --> 00:49:44,880
Speaker 3: guess it's just full throttle Kamala is like you know,

955
00:49:45,120 --> 00:49:48,319
Speaker 3: Jesus or whatever. So what does this mean that there's

956
00:49:48,360 --> 00:49:52,120
Speaker 3: been a a counter offensive by Ukraine in Russian territory.

957
00:49:53,080 --> 00:49:55,319
Speaker 5: Well, just parenthetically on that, I think David Sachs put

958
00:49:55,320 --> 00:49:58,479
Speaker 5: this out that like their Kamala image on the front

959
00:49:58,520 --> 00:50:01,480
Speaker 5: of top where she actually does kind of look like

960
00:50:01,520 --> 00:50:04,080
Speaker 5: a religious icon. The most important part was that she

961
00:50:04,160 --> 00:50:06,000
Speaker 5: declined to comment for the article.

962
00:50:05,760 --> 00:50:08,680
Speaker 4: Which everything you talked about surreal.

963
00:50:08,719 --> 00:50:13,000
Speaker 5: It's like beyond beyond mockery. But it's a great question.

964
00:50:13,120 --> 00:50:16,640
Speaker 5: I mean, I think I was certainly surprised taken aback,

965
00:50:16,719 --> 00:50:19,719
Speaker 5: I would say impressed by the Ukrainians prowess. I think

966
00:50:19,760 --> 00:50:22,000
Speaker 5: we have yet to figure out what's going on. This

967
00:50:22,040 --> 00:50:25,720
Speaker 5: is Zelenski started talking about in others Ukrainians senior leaders.

968
00:50:26,239 --> 00:50:28,640
Speaker 5: It's not immediately clear, entirely clear to me what their

969
00:50:28,680 --> 00:50:31,400
Speaker 5: goals are. Are they trying to like discombobulate the Russians.

970
00:50:31,440 --> 00:50:33,560
Speaker 5: Are they trying to seize territory to hold it a

971
00:50:33,719 --> 00:50:37,879
Speaker 5: leverage for future negotiations, That's what Putin was suggesting. Are

972
00:50:37,880 --> 00:50:40,279
Speaker 5: they trying to kind of change the narrative away from

973
00:50:40,440 --> 00:50:43,880
Speaker 5: you know, the sort of the steady progress that the

974
00:50:43,960 --> 00:50:46,200
Speaker 5: Russians are making in the main theater, which is in

975
00:50:46,200 --> 00:50:49,280
Speaker 5: the East. I have to say I'm skeptical, and I'd

976
00:50:49,280 --> 00:50:52,480
Speaker 5: probably even go farther. I don't think that this is

977
00:50:52,480 --> 00:50:55,200
Speaker 5: going to change the fundamentals, you know, I mean there

978
00:50:55,600 --> 00:50:57,680
Speaker 5: and even in you know, time New York Times reporting

979
00:50:57,719 --> 00:51:01,239
Speaker 5: this morning, there's real questions. Americans were apparently saying off

980
00:51:01,239 --> 00:51:04,359
Speaker 5: the record as they usually do, or sort of anonymously,

981
00:51:05,360 --> 00:51:07,120
Speaker 5: you know, we're not sure that the Ukrainians made the

982
00:51:07,120 --> 00:51:09,600
Speaker 5: best decision. We're not exactly sure what they're trying to say.

983
00:51:09,920 --> 00:51:11,640
Speaker 5: But I think the jury is still out. But look,

984
00:51:11,680 --> 00:51:13,759
Speaker 5: I think what we've seen in Ukraine over the last

985
00:51:13,800 --> 00:51:16,719
Speaker 5: two and a half years plus is there's no fancy,

986
00:51:16,920 --> 00:51:20,920
Speaker 5: kind of decisive blitzkrieg style, you know, thing that totally

987
00:51:20,920 --> 00:51:24,920
Speaker 5: transforms it didn't happen for the Russians at the beginning.

988
00:51:25,160 --> 00:51:27,439
Speaker 5: It didn't happen for the Ukrainians in late twenty twenty

989
00:51:27,440 --> 00:51:29,799
Speaker 5: two or in the big counter offensive been twenty twenty three,

990
00:51:30,239 --> 00:51:32,400
Speaker 5: and so it's still a matter of numbers and resolve,

991
00:51:32,960 --> 00:51:35,600
Speaker 5: and I think the unfortunately that favors the Russians, and

992
00:51:35,680 --> 00:51:38,719
Speaker 5: so this might help, you know, the Ukrainians somewhat, but

993
00:51:38,800 --> 00:51:40,800
Speaker 5: I don't see it as a fundamental game changer or

994
00:51:40,840 --> 00:51:41,439
Speaker 5: something like that.

995
00:51:41,920 --> 00:51:45,680
Speaker 4: Let's assume that I'm right, Trump wins.

996
00:51:46,120 --> 00:51:48,279
Speaker 3: The cavalry arrives over the hill at just the right

997
00:51:48,320 --> 00:51:52,080
Speaker 3: moment on election day, so to speak, and Trump is

998
00:51:52,080 --> 00:51:55,160
Speaker 3: now commander in chief. He's been saying that he's going

999
00:51:55,239 --> 00:51:59,239
Speaker 3: to end this Russia Ukraine conflict, and now he's Trump,

1000
00:51:59,320 --> 00:52:01,040
Speaker 3: so he just sort of say, as I will end it,

1001
00:52:01,440 --> 00:52:03,000
Speaker 3: and people are taking him at his word.

1002
00:52:03,320 --> 00:52:04,880
Speaker 4: What do you think that looks like?

1003
00:52:06,360 --> 00:52:10,080
Speaker 5: Well, man, I hope you're right about winning. It's obviously

1004
00:52:10,080 --> 00:52:12,000
Speaker 5: a tight race now, but I think we definitely need

1005
00:52:12,120 --> 00:52:12,719
Speaker 5: change and.

1006
00:52:12,960 --> 00:52:14,840
Speaker 4: Keep the faith, bridge keep the faith.

1007
00:52:15,520 --> 00:52:18,799
Speaker 5: I'm a believer, but take nothing for granted, right, But

1008
00:52:18,920 --> 00:52:22,200
Speaker 5: you know more about this than I do. But look,

1009
00:52:22,239 --> 00:52:23,920
Speaker 5: I don't know I mean, I don't speak for President Trump,

1010
00:52:23,920 --> 00:52:26,760
Speaker 5: as you know, and I don't make any presumptions about

1011
00:52:26,760 --> 00:52:29,080
Speaker 5: myself or anything like that, but I will say, just

1012
00:52:29,200 --> 00:52:32,279
Speaker 5: on the issue of how much President Trump is actually

1013
00:52:32,360 --> 00:52:35,200
Speaker 5: laid out his plan, I think it's actually pretty almost

1014
00:52:35,239 --> 00:52:38,200
Speaker 5: like best practice not to talk too in too much

1015
00:52:38,239 --> 00:52:40,080
Speaker 5: detail about what the plan is. That's actually what Dwight

1016
00:52:40,080 --> 00:52:42,520
Speaker 5: Eisenhower did in nineteen fifty two when pretty much all

1017
00:52:42,560 --> 00:52:44,399
Speaker 5: I said about ending the Korean War was I will

1018
00:52:44,400 --> 00:52:47,520
Speaker 5: go to Korea. Or Ron Reagan nineteen eighty said he

1019
00:52:47,520 --> 00:52:49,799
Speaker 5: would solve as I understand, the Iran hostage crisis didn't

1020
00:52:49,800 --> 00:52:51,440
Speaker 5: get into a lot of detail. So I mean, you

1021
00:52:51,480 --> 00:52:53,200
Speaker 5: don't want to put all your cards on the table.

1022
00:52:53,800 --> 00:52:57,240
Speaker 3: So it is basically the force of personality is the promise,

1023
00:52:57,280 --> 00:52:59,120
Speaker 3: and you trust in the commander in chief to show

1024
00:52:59,200 --> 00:53:01,359
Speaker 3: up pounded fist on the table and get it done.

1025
00:53:01,360 --> 00:53:03,600
Speaker 4: I mean that that actually is the strategy at some level.

1026
00:53:03,960 --> 00:53:06,000
Speaker 5: Well, I think it's the strategy. But also like look,

1027
00:53:06,040 --> 00:53:08,800
Speaker 5: I mean Biden sort of locked into this terrible policy

1028
00:53:08,800 --> 00:53:11,359
Speaker 5: and if anything, Harris looks like she's going to continue it,

1029
00:53:11,640 --> 00:53:15,520
Speaker 5: which is rhetorical maximalism about you know, putin is the

1030
00:53:15,560 --> 00:53:17,560
Speaker 5: evilest guy who ever lived. He's obviously a bad guy,

1031
00:53:17,600 --> 00:53:18,960
Speaker 5: like he's done a lot of bad things. That's not

1032
00:53:19,000 --> 00:53:22,160
Speaker 5: the issue, but it's not backed up by like any

1033
00:53:22,239 --> 00:53:23,960
Speaker 5: kind of plausible strategy. And I'm not a fan of

1034
00:53:23,960 --> 00:53:25,560
Speaker 5: the Wall Street Journal lot of bed Page on this point.

1035
00:53:25,560 --> 00:53:27,480
Speaker 5: But where they do have a point is saying, like,

1036
00:53:27,480 --> 00:53:30,840
Speaker 5: what are we doing. We're slow dripping them resources and money.

1037
00:53:31,080 --> 00:53:35,640
Speaker 5: Meanwhile we're talking, you know, we're progressively allowing attacks into Russia.

1038
00:53:35,920 --> 00:53:38,680
Speaker 5: Putin responds to this thing by saying, taking negotiations off

1039
00:53:38,680 --> 00:53:40,400
Speaker 5: the table. I mean, obviously that could be a maneuver,

1040
00:53:40,800 --> 00:53:42,520
Speaker 5: but it's like what we're doing for the last two

1041
00:53:42,520 --> 00:53:44,080
Speaker 5: and a half years is not working out. I mean,

1042
00:53:44,200 --> 00:53:46,399
Speaker 5: the Biden administration will tell you, oh, we're winning. Well,

1043
00:53:46,480 --> 00:53:49,200
Speaker 5: if you compare it to like complete catastrophe, it's better

1044
00:53:49,239 --> 00:53:51,200
Speaker 5: than that. But I don't think anybody in Ukraine or

1045
00:53:51,360 --> 00:53:53,480
Speaker 5: a rational person looking from the outside would say that

1046
00:53:53,520 --> 00:53:55,440
Speaker 5: if you look at this from the beginning of Biden's term,

1047
00:53:55,840 --> 00:53:57,880
Speaker 5: this is a good outcome. Now maybe if it's not,

1048
00:53:57,960 --> 00:54:00,319
Speaker 5: you know, I think the force of personality is part

1049
00:54:00,320 --> 00:54:03,040
Speaker 5: of it, but it's also a different common sense approach.

1050
00:54:03,080 --> 00:54:05,000
Speaker 5: I mean, One of the things where Trump President Trump

1051
00:54:05,080 --> 00:54:08,719
Speaker 5: gets flack, which I think is telling, is when he says, hey,

1052
00:54:08,960 --> 00:54:10,920
Speaker 5: you know, I need to have a good relationship with

1053
00:54:11,320 --> 00:54:13,920
Speaker 5: or you know, at least a talking relationship with Putin

1054
00:54:14,560 --> 00:54:17,920
Speaker 5: or Kim Jong un or Hijinping. I think that's actually

1055
00:54:17,960 --> 00:54:19,960
Speaker 5: makes sense. Like Richard Nixon was able to talk to

1056
00:54:20,000 --> 00:54:22,279
Speaker 5: him Asadung, we were talking to the head of the

1057
00:54:22,320 --> 00:54:24,160
Speaker 5: Soviet Union. That was considered a good thing because you

1058
00:54:24,200 --> 00:54:27,520
Speaker 5: need to be able to potentially come to some different agreement.

1059
00:54:27,680 --> 00:54:30,239
Speaker 5: So I think a different approach where there is also more,

1060
00:54:30,320 --> 00:54:33,279
Speaker 5: as you know, concern about what the Americans might be

1061
00:54:33,280 --> 00:54:36,040
Speaker 5: prepared to do on like the economic sanctions front or whatever.

1062
00:54:36,480 --> 00:54:38,840
Speaker 5: I mean, you know, I don't know what's what's the

1063
00:54:38,880 --> 00:54:41,239
Speaker 5: total universe, but I don't think it's out of the question,

1064
00:54:41,280 --> 00:54:44,480
Speaker 5: because like maybe Russia doesn't over long term want to

1065
00:54:44,520 --> 00:54:46,640
Speaker 5: be a dependency of China. And I think this is

1066
00:54:46,680 --> 00:54:48,439
Speaker 5: again something the present I think he said to Elon

1067
00:54:48,520 --> 00:54:51,080
Speaker 5: Musk the other night, was saying, which is again like

1068
00:54:51,120 --> 00:54:53,280
Speaker 5: it used to be a truism of American foreign policy.

1069
00:54:53,400 --> 00:54:56,000
Speaker 5: You don't want the Russians and the Chinese allied against you, right,

1070
00:54:56,120 --> 00:54:58,520
Speaker 5: It's like kind of a basic high giene of American

1071
00:54:58,600 --> 00:54:59,040
Speaker 5: form policy.

1072
00:54:59,120 --> 00:55:01,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, and never never find a land war in Asia,

1073
00:55:01,160 --> 00:55:02,560
Speaker 4: et cetera. Yeah, exactly.

1074
00:55:02,800 --> 00:55:05,359
Speaker 5: So, like I do think, you know, I I don't know,

1075
00:55:05,600 --> 00:55:07,320
Speaker 5: and I don't you know, I don't know what Putin's

1076
00:55:07,360 --> 00:55:10,560
Speaker 5: actual negotiating parameters are, but presumably he doesn't want the

1077
00:55:10,600 --> 00:55:13,520
Speaker 5: war to go on forever and so forth. I think

1078
00:55:13,840 --> 00:55:16,160
Speaker 5: at least at least worth trying it out. I do

1079
00:55:16,239 --> 00:55:17,880
Speaker 5: think that the Ukrainians are going to need to be

1080
00:55:17,920 --> 00:55:20,200
Speaker 5: supported whatever happens. But I think, as President Trump said

1081
00:55:20,200 --> 00:55:22,080
Speaker 5: in his true social post a few months ago, that's

1082
00:55:22,080 --> 00:55:23,160
Speaker 5: got to be on the Europeans.

1083
00:55:24,080 --> 00:55:24,960
Speaker 4: That seems reasonable.

1084
00:55:25,520 --> 00:55:27,839
Speaker 3: Yeah, well real, real quick, Bridge really got about a minute.

1085
00:55:27,840 --> 00:55:28,600
Speaker 3: But I'm just wondering.

1086
00:55:28,760 --> 00:55:30,399
Speaker 4: Yeah, there's this this.

1087
00:55:30,440 --> 00:55:35,279
Speaker 3: Sense of, oh my gosh, Iran is going to have

1088
00:55:35,360 --> 00:55:37,600
Speaker 3: some kind of a CounterPunch against Israel and it could

1089
00:55:37,600 --> 00:55:38,160
Speaker 3: be horrible.

1090
00:55:39,280 --> 00:55:40,800
Speaker 4: Is this Iran taking its time?

1091
00:55:41,000 --> 00:55:45,799
Speaker 3: Or do people sometimes underestimate the limitations of the Iranian

1092
00:55:45,920 --> 00:55:49,080
Speaker 3: state to really engage in any kind of a sort

1093
00:55:49,080 --> 00:55:51,320
Speaker 3: of certainly a conventional military strike.

1094
00:55:52,840 --> 00:55:53,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a good question.

1095
00:55:53,640 --> 00:55:54,799
Speaker 5: You know, It's one of the things going back and

1096
00:55:54,840 --> 00:55:56,120
Speaker 5: you and I've been in this field a while, like

1097
00:55:56,320 --> 00:55:58,840
Speaker 5: you know, where people would say Iranians are totally irrational

1098
00:55:58,880 --> 00:56:00,560
Speaker 5: and actually like if you look at and particularly how

1099
00:56:00,600 --> 00:56:02,800
Speaker 5: the Israelis are thinking about them, and they're calculus the

1100
00:56:02,880 --> 00:56:05,560
Speaker 5: Iranians are calculating and they know what's up, you know,

1101
00:56:05,760 --> 00:56:08,360
Speaker 5: So like I don't it sounds like the Israelis and

1102
00:56:08,680 --> 00:56:12,440
Speaker 5: we are preparing for an Iranian attack and you know,

1103
00:56:12,480 --> 00:56:14,280
Speaker 5: I think that would probably where you'd put your money.

1104
00:56:14,440 --> 00:56:16,839
Speaker 5: And again, as the Israelis have shown, but the Iranians too,

1105
00:56:16,880 --> 00:56:19,920
Speaker 5: you can take your time in retaliating. But what exactly

1106
00:56:19,920 --> 00:56:21,520
Speaker 5: that looks like? I don't think we know there's a

1107
00:56:21,680 --> 00:56:24,920
Speaker 5: story the Israelis may go after Hezbollah as a as

1108
00:56:25,280 --> 00:56:28,280
Speaker 5: even us in Iranian retaliation as a pretext. So Iran's

1109
00:56:28,280 --> 00:56:30,120
Speaker 5: going to be factoring that in like is this gonna

1110
00:56:30,160 --> 00:56:34,399
Speaker 5: net benefit us to do something? But they certainly put

1111
00:56:34,400 --> 00:56:37,160
Speaker 5: themselves in a position where where they've they've put their

1112
00:56:37,200 --> 00:56:40,120
Speaker 5: credibility on the line quite a bit. So unfortunately, I

1113
00:56:40,160 --> 00:56:42,359
Speaker 5: think that's probably the way to bet. But I hope

1114
00:56:42,360 --> 00:56:44,560
Speaker 5: it's not. I certainly hope it's not successful, but I

1115
00:56:44,600 --> 00:56:45,800
Speaker 5: hope it's not very robust.

1116
00:56:46,480 --> 00:56:50,200
Speaker 3: Bridge Colby, everybody Bridge give me a toward the Pentagon

1117
00:56:50,200 --> 00:56:51,680
Speaker 3: when you're under Secretary of Defense.

1118
00:56:51,680 --> 00:56:52,799
Speaker 4: All right, looking forward to and.

1119
00:56:52,719 --> 00:56:55,719
Speaker 5: I'm making any assumptions, but always a great talk to

1120
00:56:55,760 --> 00:56:56,080
Speaker 5: you guys.

1121
00:56:56,440 --> 00:56:58,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, man, Thanks so much appreciated.