Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast. I'm
Speaker 1: your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at Dan
Speaker 1: Harris Hadi. It is week five, it is time for
Speaker 1: our best bets, and here with me is a guy
Speaker 1: you know, a guy you love, Scott Vogman. You know
Speaker 1: him from the College Football podcast. You know him as
Speaker 1: co hosted in this league podcast. Find him on Twitter
Speaker 1: at Bogman Sports. Joining us straight from Victorian England. Bogman,
Speaker 1: how are you today?
Speaker 2: I'm doing great.
Speaker 3: I'm definitely, you know, not the stereotypical person that loves
Speaker 3: fantasy sports and sports living at home with mom.
Speaker 2: So that's good.
Speaker 1: You know, you know, you do what you gotta do
Speaker 1: man to get bye. Yes if you hopefully you're watching.
Speaker 1: If you're not, please go to YouTube dot com slash
Speaker 1: Betting Pros that you can see his lovely background which
Speaker 1: looks like a lovely lady's bedroom, which is fine.
Speaker 4: I know you've got some construction going.
Speaker 2: On instruction in the house, right.
Speaker 4: I still appreciate you making the time for us despite
Speaker 4: all that. So how you guys know what this is?
Speaker 1: It's our three best bets of the weekend, whether it's
Speaker 1: against the spread, whether it's over under, whether it's money
Speaker 1: line or whatever, and then we'll quickly run through the
Speaker 1: remaining games. A couple of housekeeping items before we get in,
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Speaker 1: to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash betting Pros.
Speaker 1: Of course, that counts as three times the entries into
Speaker 1: the contest. Congratulations, good job, hopefully you get it. Actually,
Speaker 1: just to be clear, we are prohibited from winning the contest.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry. I'm sorry about that, man. I can you
Speaker 1: just send it to me and give away?
Speaker 4: Yeah, you got it.
Speaker 1: I'll win you want on Christine auction. Everything's so inexpensive
Speaker 1: there anyway, who cares? All right, let's get into it again.
Speaker 1: We have consensus lines over at bettingpros dot com, but
Speaker 1: there are different books, so we will note that as well. Briefly,
Speaker 1: let's recap last week. It was a good week for
Speaker 1: our little podcast here. Pat Fitzmorris hit on the Jets
Speaker 1: getting seven from the Titans, and he also said we
Speaker 1: should sprinkle on the money line, which we did.
Speaker 4: That went well, and the.
Speaker 1: Eagles and the Chiefs over fifty four, which that went
Speaker 1: way over. He did miss on the Panthers getting four
Speaker 1: from the Cowboys. As for me, I hit on all
Speaker 1: three of my best bets, the Ravens Broncos.
Speaker 4: How's it going under forty?
Speaker 1: Under forty five and a half for the Ravens, Broncos,
Speaker 1: Giants getting seven and half from the Saints, and the
Speaker 1: Steelers Packers under forty five and a half. So I
Speaker 1: am five and one over the last two weeks. So
Speaker 1: if I do poorly hear it is Bogwin's fault. As
Speaker 1: we generally know, bog when you were the guests again,
Speaker 1: you were time traveling.
Speaker 4: So please go ahead give us your best bet of
Speaker 4: the weekend for the NFL.
Speaker 3: My favorite one is the over on the New England
Speaker 3: and Houston game, and it's not because I think these
Speaker 3: offenses are going to be explosive at all. I expect
Speaker 3: three and outs from Houston. I expect short fields for
Speaker 3: New England, which sets up for easy touchdowns, probably some
Speaker 3: turnovers as well. So I see this game playing out
Speaker 3: as like a thirty five to seven something like that.
Speaker 3: The overs thirty nine and a half, and it could
Speaker 3: be even worse than that. And if we get some
Speaker 3: garbage sign from Houston, which you don't see against Bill
Speaker 3: Belichick a lot, but it can happen, I think it
Speaker 3: goes way over that. So I think that number is
Speaker 3: just a little bit too low. Knowing that both these
Speaker 3: offenses aren't fantastic. I just think that you know, you're
Speaker 3: gonna set up short fields for Belichick, He's gonna take advantage,
Speaker 3: and he's gonna run up the score.
Speaker 2: It's what he does well.
Speaker 1: Spoiler That is a very very low total, obviously, and
Speaker 1: spoiler alert, my first pick will also be a total.
Speaker 1: But I am actually gonna go under with my total.
Speaker 1: But I will talk about this with this. I'm wondering
Speaker 1: what you think of this bagman that I think that
Speaker 1: the Texans may put up a little more of a
Speaker 1: fight here, and not not that that goes against the
Speaker 1: over whatsoever anything.
Speaker 4: Probably it probably goes towards the over.
Speaker 1: But I think, you know, you've got a little bit
Speaker 1: of a letdown spot here for the Patriots, where that
Speaker 1: defense played so incredibly well, you got the Texans, which
Speaker 1: I think I feel like the market is just generally
Speaker 1: undervaluing because it's a short memory and you just saw
Speaker 1: them get absolutely obliterated by the Bills. I think this
Speaker 1: game could see some points on both sides here, and
Speaker 1: you know, I wouldn't be surprised if it, you know,
Speaker 1: went over by you know, a hearty amount. I'm not
Speaker 1: like wanting to do it. But I do feel like
Speaker 1: the Texans are going to be able to put up,
Speaker 1: you know, a little more points. I feel like then
Speaker 1: I think the general public is expecting.
Speaker 4: What do you think.
Speaker 2: I hope you're right.
Speaker 3: I just have no trust and no faith in Davis
Speaker 3: math And I didn't really like him coming out of
Speaker 3: the draft anyway.
Speaker 2: I thought he went too high.
Speaker 3: It was the Texans first pick, and I don't think
Speaker 3: they put him in very good positions here. You know,
Speaker 3: his very first start was on short rest. Then his
Speaker 3: next start was on the road against Buffalo, who was angry.
Speaker 3: So and this this game against Bill Belichick, one of
Speaker 3: the best chess piece masterminds in the history of the NFL.
Speaker 3: Not very great. They're not putting it. They're not putting
Speaker 3: him in a position to succeed here. So I hope
Speaker 3: you're right. I hope we see some No, I would
Speaker 3: love to get some fantasy production out of somebody in
Speaker 3: not named Brandon Cooks. Brandon Cooks, even after the bad week,
Speaker 3: is still overall pretty decent. And we get Ty Rod
Speaker 3: back next week fingers crossed, hopefully, hopefully, But yeah, I mean,
Speaker 3: I just don't see much fight from Houston, right Now.
Speaker 1: I completely agree with you on Mills, other than the
Speaker 1: fact that I did think like he looked better than
Speaker 1: I expected, I think against the Panthers in that Thursday
Speaker 1: night game, because I don't have much right.
Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, he looked better on a no huddle,
Speaker 3: So maybe he's going to put some of that in
Speaker 3: there for him, Maybe a little hurry up offense, maybe
Speaker 3: something like that play to his strengths.
Speaker 2: But he wasn't that good at Stanford.
Speaker 3: He was an enormous, like yeah, ninety nine point nine
Speaker 3: nine nine two four seven recruit there. Just was never
Speaker 3: played great there either, So I was just a little
Speaker 3: leary on him coming in and he should not be
Speaker 3: starting this early in his NFL career.
Speaker 1: I completely agree with all of that, but I do
Speaker 1: like the over. I do lean that way as well.
Speaker 1: If I went somewhere, I am going to go with
Speaker 1: the same total, but I am going to go under
Speaker 1: despite how low it is. And it is the Steelers
Speaker 1: Broncos at that same number thirty nine and a half. You
Speaker 1: just heard me recap last week. I went under the
Speaker 1: Broncos game last week. They are now four and oh
Speaker 1: toward the under, and I think there is a real
Speaker 1: reason for that. I think they're going to be five
Speaker 1: and out here to the ender again thirty nine and
Speaker 1: a half. It's an incredibly small number of bagman as
Speaker 1: we sort of talked about. But you can start with
Speaker 1: the big basics, which is these are two very, very
Speaker 1: solid defenses. The Broncos are seventh in defensive DVA and
Speaker 1: waited defensive dv so they've played some cake matchups, but
Speaker 1: obviously waited DVA takes.
Speaker 4: That into account.
Speaker 1: The Steelers are twenty second, but really where they've struggled
Speaker 1: is their pass defense. Twenty third in defensive DVOA against
Speaker 1: the past, but seventh in defensive DVOA against the run,
Speaker 1: and again what was out for a couple of.
Speaker 4: Those games, So that matters too.
Speaker 1: And if you're struggling against the pass, the Broncos are
Speaker 1: a pretty good matchup right now because they're middle of
Speaker 1: the road. But again, no Jerry Judy, I think the
Speaker 1: loss of kJ Handler is big, and not again I
Speaker 1: said this last week, not because of his production, but
Speaker 1: because it's the field stretcher that opens up these sort
Speaker 1: of intermediate routes. Right for Tim Patrick, who I love,
Speaker 1: for Courtland Sutton who I love, and without that stretch
Speaker 1: in the field. I think it's really difficult for them
Speaker 1: to get drives going unless they can run the ball effectively,
Speaker 1: which again Melvin Gorn a little banged up, and again
Speaker 1: the Steelers have a strong run defense. And this is
Speaker 1: to say nothing of the fact, Bagman, that we don't
Speaker 1: even know if Teddy Bridgewater is going to play in
Speaker 1: this game, right, I mean that is the thing. Like
Speaker 1: it could be Drew Lack, he's progressing out of the concussion,
Speaker 1: but we still don't know. So it's hard for me
Speaker 1: to see either teams scoring points, especially with a pumped
Speaker 1: up crowd. Well, certainly Denver scoring points with a pumped
Speaker 1: up crowd. And for the Steelers, like we know how
Speaker 1: bad the Steelers are offense, Yeah, like this has earned
Speaker 1: how bad they are. They're twenty third in offensive pass DVA,
Speaker 1: twenty seventh in offensive rushing DVOA. The offensive line is terrible,
Speaker 1: Ben is banged up, Claypool may not play. To me, Blagman,
Speaker 1: I feel like there has to be a defensive scorer here,
Speaker 1: or a turnover deep in someone's territory for this to
Speaker 1: really put up points. I've been going with the unders
Speaker 1: for the Broncos the whole year. I'm sticking with it
Speaker 1: even with this especially because again, I just there's nothing
Speaker 1: to get excited about with the Pittsburgh offense.
Speaker 3: I picked the over make of my picks in this game,
Speaker 3: but it's just because the number is so low for
Speaker 3: both of these teams.
Speaker 2: I'm a Steelers fan. They've got nothing on it.
Speaker 4: Oh right, Ben can't throw the ball.
Speaker 2: Down down the field. You know, he missed Juju for
Speaker 2: two touchdowns.
Speaker 4: Yes, last week, those wide open on that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, he missed, you know, almost like Marquise Brown dropping
Speaker 3: the ball a couple of weeks ago, which also played
Speaker 3: towards the under.
Speaker 2: You know what I mean.
Speaker 3: So I understand where you're coming from on the under.
Speaker 3: Its specifically with uh these guys in Denver really banged up.
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh banged up too, but just bad on the offensive line.
Speaker 3: So the one thing I was listened to a Steelers
Speaker 3: podcast before we fired today, and there's this crazy stat
Speaker 3: about Cam Hayward. With Cam Hayward on the field, Steelers
Speaker 3: run defense three yards per carry. Without Cam Hayward on
Speaker 3: the field eight point three per care. So that'sicly, he's questionable.
Speaker 3: He's gonna play, He's going to play, but if he
Speaker 3: has to leave early or something real ugly for Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1: Boy, all right, that's a good point. I was assuming
Speaker 1: that he's gonna play, But you're right, Like.
Speaker 3: Cam Hayward, he sat down for five minutes, left the field,
Speaker 3: came back after one snap like he plays through everything
Speaker 3: he does.
Speaker 2: Ironheads Son, you know, yeah.
Speaker 4: All right, all right, let's get to your second bat.
Speaker 4: What do you here?
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take Green Bay minus three.
Speaker 3: I know they're on the road against Cincinnati, and Cincinnati
Speaker 3: has looked pretty decent, but have they played anybody really?
Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
Speaker 3: They they should have lost to Jacksonville on short rest
Speaker 3: at home. I don't like that they beat a bad
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh team. You know, they beat Minnesota in overtime, so
Speaker 3: I get it. Cincinnati looks good, but Aaron Rodgers is
Speaker 3: now clicking on all cylinders. I know this is a
Speaker 3: road game for them, but I don't really care. I
Speaker 3: think they're gonna go in there. They're gonna run down
Speaker 3: Cincinnati's throat and they're gonna throw over their heads.
Speaker 2: Cincinnati still has some banged up guys.
Speaker 3: I know Jesse Bates is coming back, Woozy is a
Speaker 3: little questionable, I think in this game as well. I
Speaker 3: know we're gonna get you know, Jay R Alexander's gonna
Speaker 3: miss this game for green Bay correct, which doesn't play
Speaker 3: towards them, but Joe Mixon is out too, so I
Speaker 3: think Cincinnati becomes fairly one dimensional as well. So I
Speaker 3: think this Green Bay minus three is a little short,
Speaker 3: and I like them on the road, and I love
Speaker 3: that ESQ later of sadness since I'm a Steeler.
Speaker 1: So what's interesting to me, Bagwin is that when I
Speaker 1: looked at this, when Joe and I actually looked at
Speaker 1: it on Monday, I think it was three and a
Speaker 1: half at the time. And my guess is that this
Speaker 1: is a sharp sort of the sharps are going to
Speaker 1: be on the Bengals in this game, because I think
Speaker 1: that probably the public is going to be backing the
Speaker 1: Packers if it were three and a half, if it
Speaker 1: bounce back to there, would you still like it there?
Speaker 4: Or is it just that three?
Speaker 2: Okay?
Speaker 3: I think I think Green Bay just they're just going
Speaker 3: to move the ball better. And I specifically like what
Speaker 3: age we saw from ag dyllon last week. Once they
Speaker 3: get a lead is in the fourth quarter, against tire defenses.
Speaker 2: That is what that dude is built for.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you give him the ball in the fourth quarter
Speaker 3: and he runs over all those tired linemen and linebackers
Speaker 3: and safeties. So I just I like what Green Bay
Speaker 3: is doing. I think they're clicking right now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's going to be interesting. I'm not I don't
Speaker 1: have a lean one way or the other on this game.
Speaker 1: I because again, I think T Higgins is probably going
Speaker 1: to make it back for this game, and I know
Speaker 1: there's not gonna be Joe Mix and then we've seen
Speaker 1: smaj p Ryan do. But I do think that the
Speaker 1: Packers being down almost certainly down Jay R Alexander. I
Speaker 1: don't know if he's actually been declared out yet, but
Speaker 1: I assume he's going to miss. And with T Higgins
Speaker 1: coming back, I mean, I think the Bengals are going
Speaker 1: to be able to put up a lot of points here.
Speaker 1: But I just I don't have a good feel for it.
Speaker 1: So it's a stay away from me. But I like
Speaker 1: where you're going. There's no way you like this game,
Speaker 1: by the way, because I'm the last human being who
Speaker 1: basically wants to bet on the Philadelphia Eagles right now,
Speaker 1: and it is the Eagles plus three and a half
Speaker 1: in Calrolina, and I'm going down with the shit.
Speaker 2: What you did. I did pick the Eagles, so.
Speaker 4: I knew I had you on for a reason.
Speaker 2: But I don't love the game. But I did pick
Speaker 2: the Eagles. I don't. Okay, Carolina has really beat anyone impressive.
Speaker 1: That's great. That is where we get to. By the way,
Speaker 1: like I I think Carolina.
Speaker 2: Strategy was Cincy, same deal.
Speaker 4: Okay, I think that that's fair. It's a fair strategy.
Speaker 1: Then let's go and you get to back the Packers
Speaker 1: though taking on since I have to take the Eagles,
Speaker 1: so that's worse for me. But you're right, Yeah, they
Speaker 1: beat up right who they beat up on? The Jets,
Speaker 1: the Saints, the Texans. That's not that impressive. Then we
Speaker 1: saw holes again in their defense, especially when they go
Speaker 1: up against.
Speaker 4: The Cowboys, which by the way, that was them off
Speaker 4: of Mini bi right.
Speaker 1: Like they had the Thursday night game, so they got
Speaker 1: to go and the Cowboys were off a short week
Speaker 1: there as well, so Thompson.
Speaker 4: And they're pretty banged up. That's what I'm saying.
Speaker 1: On defensively, so I know I don't is Gilmore is
Speaker 1: not gonna play in this game?
Speaker 4: Is he No?
Speaker 2: I can't imagine he does.
Speaker 1: Even if he does, he's not gonna know the playbook
Speaker 1: or anything like that. I know Christian McCaffrey's playing, but
Speaker 1: I don't expect him to play in this game either.
Speaker 1: And again, Sam Darnold from a fantasy perspective has been great,
Speaker 1: but you know, I have not been overly impressed with
Speaker 1: him from a real life standpoint, Like I'm glad he's
Speaker 1: rushing for the touchdowns everything like that, but he has
Speaker 1: not struck me as the type of guy who's going
Speaker 1: to win you any games. And the big thing with
Speaker 1: the Panthers d by the way, is they get a
Speaker 1: ton of pressure, right, Like that's what they do.
Speaker 4: They get pressure almost better than anybody in the league.
Speaker 4: But the thing is that pressure is not really what
Speaker 4: works with the Eagles. Number one, their offensive line.
Speaker 1: Obviously it's been banged up and you had Lane Johnson
Speaker 1: missed last week for personal reason. Sounds like he's going
Speaker 1: to play in this game. They're getting a little healthier.
Speaker 1: But either way against Jalen Hurts just doesn't work. That's
Speaker 1: not the way his escapability. He's been good here when
Speaker 1: he's gotten pressured.
Speaker 3: So so you're gonna take chin Away too, because chin
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna be spying him most of the time.
Speaker 3: So yep, that takes a playmaker out.
Speaker 4: So great point. Great point as well.
Speaker 1: So this to me, I don't know if the Eagles
Speaker 1: are gonna win this game necessarily, but I do think
Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to keep this close. So this
Speaker 1: strikes me as a field goal game. If you're giving
Speaker 1: me the hook, that's where I'm gonna take it. And
Speaker 1: even if you're not that excited about it, you picked
Speaker 1: it as well, right, and the betting goes up, So
Speaker 1: we're basically simpatico here, Right, you're all in on the Eagles,
Speaker 1: all right?
Speaker 4: Their bet? What do you got?
Speaker 3: I've got Minnesota minus nine and a half against Detroit,
Speaker 3: And it's more from what I saw from Detroit last
Speaker 3: week against Chicago than me loving Minnesota, because look, they
Speaker 3: only put up seven points against Cleveland and that's not
Speaker 3: gonna inspire a lot of confidence in anyone. But I
Speaker 3: think Detroit, specifically with the injuries Aquir goes down Brockers
Speaker 3: is questionable on that defensive line. That does not lend
Speaker 3: in favor towards Detroit, And I know Detroit's played some
Speaker 3: hard games, right, They played some some teams hard. They're
Speaker 3: in that Niners game at the end, you know, they
Speaker 3: they have looked better than expected, but last week they
Speaker 3: turned into a pumpkin. And I think that's where we're
Speaker 3: heading for the rest of the year for Detroit, right.
Speaker 3: So I think it's gonna be a lot of running
Speaker 3: up the gut with even if Cook's not healthy. We
Speaker 3: saw Madison put up absolutely yards too. I mean it's
Speaker 3: not you know, wash your hands and put in the
Speaker 3: next guy, but he is pretty good, especially in a
Speaker 3: situation where he's going up against a roughed up defense.
Speaker 3: Penney Sewell got smoked last week by Robert Quinn and
Speaker 3: tal Hunter is better than Robert Quinn. So you're either
Speaker 3: gonna have to get real good, real fast, Penney, or
Speaker 3: they're gonna have to chip over there, which is going
Speaker 3: to take their best playmaker and Hockinson out a lot
Speaker 3: of the time too. DeAndre Swift's questionable. I just think
Speaker 3: this is domination by the Vikings this week.
Speaker 4: And don't forget like Hawkinson also has banged up a
Speaker 4: little bit.
Speaker 2: He's been in an a he hasn't been playing great.
Speaker 4: Correct he hasn't been.
Speaker 1: But their offensive line, which was at one point a
Speaker 1: real strength of their team, is also banged up, and
Speaker 1: that kind of pulling them down a little bit.
Speaker 4: I agree with you.
Speaker 1: It's a big number, but I'm okay laying it as well.
Speaker 1: I did pick this one in the app. I haven't
Speaker 1: bet it actually personally because at DraftKings are the only
Speaker 1: book that's hanging out there. Again betting Bros dot Com,
Speaker 1: I can see every book. They're the only book hanging
Speaker 1: out there at ten. Not that you know whatever, but
Speaker 1: every other book basically is that nine and a half.
Speaker 1: That's the contensus line. Ten is not quite as enticing.
Speaker 4: But I agree with you.
Speaker 1: I think the Vikings and they are desperate, right they
Speaker 1: need just windy.
Speaker 4: They're gonna they're gonna be.
Speaker 1: Able to do whatever they want offensively, like they could.
Speaker 1: Obviously we know about the issues with the line. Secondary
Speaker 1: at this point, they I think they're gonna come out
Speaker 1: at home in an absolutely must win game.
Speaker 4: Kudos to the.
Speaker 1: Lines, by the way, like for playing hard. You know
Speaker 1: j Campbell we make fun of they play hard, right,
Speaker 1: Like the Campbell's.
Speaker 2: Been much better than Urban Meyer.
Speaker 3: We can say that for him at least, right, Yeah,
Speaker 3: it's nothing off the field for Dan yet it's a
Speaker 3: low bar.
Speaker 1: Yeah that's a low bar, but that's true. Yeah, I
Speaker 1: but I am with you on this one.
Speaker 4: I do think. I know it's a big.
Speaker 1: Number, but I also like the vikings like nine and
Speaker 1: a half. I have it as well, picked it in
Speaker 1: the app. So my third pick gets a little squishy
Speaker 1: now because right before we're recording this, we learned that
Speaker 1: Calvin Ridley was out for this game. I expected Russell
Speaker 1: Gage is also offered this game, which I kind of expected.
Speaker 1: That's fine, and so actually the totals coming down, and
Speaker 1: so right now, the latest I have is it's at
Speaker 1: forty five and a half. So I would wait if,
Speaker 1: like me, you want to go over, which I still
Speaker 1: do even without Really it's it's squishy now. I felt
Speaker 1: better about it before Ridley, but it was at forty six,
Speaker 1: forty six and a half. It's falling out of forty
Speaker 1: five and a half. My fault to forty five. I'd
Speaker 1: wait as long as possible because I don't see bouncing
Speaker 1: back up. But London is a variable, okay, I admit,
Speaker 1: regardless of anything else, Like you travel to London. It's
Speaker 1: just it does a toll on you, and you know
Speaker 1: that we don't know exactly what we're going to see here.
Speaker 1: But the Jets offense looked a little better here against
Speaker 1: the Titans. And I think there are two reasons for that.
Speaker 1: The first is that as much as we make fun
Speaker 1: of the Jets, the Jets offense is not that bad.
Speaker 1: Like the offensive line has struggled, of course, but Zach Wilson,
Speaker 1: you know, four interceptions in that game, but you give
Speaker 1: him a little time. You give him a defense that's not,
Speaker 1: you know, not I won't say an elite unit, but
Speaker 1: an above average unit like he played the first several
Speaker 1: games with the Panthers, with the Patriots.
Speaker 4: With the Broncos in Denver.
Speaker 1: Now that you've got sort of a softer defense like
Speaker 1: you had with the Titans, he looked pretty good last week.
Speaker 4: He made some good reads and quirked some good throws.
Speaker 1: The second is I think Jameson Crowder really makes a
Speaker 1: difference to that, Like right, yes, completely.
Speaker 4: Changes what they're going to be.
Speaker 1: By the way, and Mike Elijah Moore may also play
Speaker 1: in this game, but I think that Crowder gives him
Speaker 1: that little safety blanket opens up some room for him
Speaker 1: and Corey Davis. So I really think that they're gonna
Speaker 1: put up points here on the Jets side. And you know,
Speaker 1: Atlanta doesn't get a ton of pressure generally. I mean
Speaker 1: they did against the Giants, but whatever, but I don't
Speaker 1: expect them to hear. And again that's really what has
Speaker 1: forced Wilson into making some bad decisions. So again I
Speaker 1: think the offense for the Jets is going to put
Speaker 1: up points here. The issue obviously is Dough.
Speaker 4: The Falcons without Calvin Ridley and without Russell Gage, they'll
Speaker 4: put up points. The Jets secondary, who has a bunch
Speaker 4: of no names, has played a little better than expected.
Speaker 2: But still disrespect Brandon Echels like that.
Speaker 1: I think, well, I actually I am a Rice Hall fan,
Speaker 1: but we could talk about that off air. I think that, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, even with cord Earl Patterson being like the
Speaker 1: main guy in it being gimmicky, Mike Davis not showing much,
Speaker 1: but again, the key ist will factor in. I think
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a big Kyle Pitts game. So I
Speaker 1: still think I think it's gonna be a Pitts game. Like,
Speaker 1: if this isn't then if this isn't then we and
Speaker 1: fantasy wise we have to just move on from the
Speaker 1: guy entirely. But in the end, I think both in
Speaker 1: a weird game. Again, I think the defenses are going
Speaker 1: to be you know, I think when teams are tired
Speaker 1: and I feel like I see it on Thursday night,
Speaker 1: like for the most part, it effects the defense is
Speaker 1: even more than the offense. And so with the with
Speaker 1: the travel, with the time and everything like that, I
Speaker 1: think it could be a little bit affected there. So
Speaker 1: even with the injuries, I'm still going to go. I
Speaker 1: would wait, by the way for this, Like right now
Speaker 1: it's forty five and a half, but it is coming down.
Speaker 1: I would wait as long as possible. I don't see
Speaker 1: bouncing back up at this point with the injuries, but
Speaker 1: I'm going to go over here for forty five and
Speaker 1: a half for the Jets Falcons.
Speaker 3: I hate the number. I just don't like it. I'm
Speaker 3: I'm a run away from it. But I picked I
Speaker 3: picked the under but with not a lot of confidence,
Speaker 3: just because we pick every game.
Speaker 4: Do you pick every game?
Speaker 2: I do?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I love it.
Speaker 2: I like the Jets though, I like I like the
Speaker 2: Jets in this game.
Speaker 4: Yes, you know, I have them, by the way, by
Speaker 4: win at three and a half.
Speaker 2: So yeah, now it's three.
Speaker 1: Now it's three now across the board. Actually it points
Speaker 1: bet it's two and a half. I have them at
Speaker 1: I have them at three and a half. And I
Speaker 1: think we were on I was on with Joe and
Speaker 1: I said, I'm betting it now, like live on the air,
Speaker 1: because I thought that was a number that you really
Speaker 1: want now, especially with all the injuries.
Speaker 4: For sure, I think they Jets win.
Speaker 1: This game, like I I I think they come out
Speaker 1: of it. It's it's a totally new regime obviously, but
Speaker 1: they didn't travel. You know, they have traveled to London,
Speaker 1: you know in the past.
Speaker 3: It's gonna take a little bit for everything to click
Speaker 3: to a new coach and a new quarterback.
Speaker 2: That's the big big things, you know.
Speaker 3: Uh, Matt Ryan isn't cooked by any shot of the imagination,
Speaker 3: but I mean the dude is getting blasted back then.
Speaker 2: That offensive line is rough.
Speaker 3: They have no semblance of a running game right now
Speaker 3: outside of maybe Cordonero Patterson runs Mike Davis angettad done
Speaker 3: and you take away your best playmaker in Ridley and
Speaker 3: your number two wide receiver engage that's a lot and
Speaker 3: now begging this Falcons defense to put pressure on the
Speaker 3: quarterback and gonna work out for you most of the time.
Speaker 3: So Zach Wilson might step into some sacks here, but
Speaker 3: he didn't typically throw a ton of picks in college,
Speaker 3: so college and it's different. But I think that he's
Speaker 3: going to start becoming better. And I think the big
Speaker 3: X factor that you mentioned is Jamison Crowder in this game,
Speaker 3: and it was last week we saw it work, and
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna work. I mean, Tennessee's defense isn't good,
Speaker 3: but it's better than Atlanta's.
Speaker 1: So I think it completely changes the offense. I really do,
Speaker 1: because again we were sitting there and again especially without
Speaker 1: Elijah Moore, who had you know, was dealing with the
Speaker 1: concussion protocol, Like there really wasn't another option to pass
Speaker 1: to on that Jets offense. It was Corey Davis or
Speaker 1: bust you give Crowder, who again is the intermediate routes.
Speaker 1: I really think that opens things up. I haven't you know,
Speaker 1: I'm a Jets fan obviously, so I look for reasons
Speaker 1: to be pessimistic.
Speaker 4: That's just generally how we go.
Speaker 1: I haven't been that down on Wilson like it. There's
Speaker 1: going to be growing pains, I understand, and everything like that.
Speaker 1: So he uncorked a couple of throws, made a couple
Speaker 1: of great reads in this last game. I'm excited to
Speaker 1: see what he could do, and I'm excited that it's
Speaker 1: the only game on even though I'll be live on
Speaker 1: air over at Fantasy Grows and our Betting Pros YouTube
Speaker 1: channel at eleven am on Sunday morning on.
Speaker 4: There with mattly so early.
Speaker 1: I know bag win, by the way, is on Hawaiian time,
Speaker 1: so don't mess with himy.
Speaker 4: It's very, very different.
Speaker 1: I will be up watching this game for short and
Speaker 1: it's exciting to get to. But so let's go through
Speaker 1: the rest of the games I've I'll recap it very quickly.
Speaker 1: You like Green Bay laying three, the New England Houston
Speaker 1: game over thirty nine and a half, and the Vikings
Speaker 1: like nine and a half to the Lions. I like
Speaker 1: the Steelers and the Broncos under the minuscule number of
Speaker 1: thirty nine and a half, the Eagles getting three and
Speaker 1: a half in Carolina, and the Jets and the Falcons
Speaker 1: over forty five and a half. But again I would
Speaker 1: wait and get the best number that you can. Let's
Speaker 1: run through some of the rest of the spreads here, Bagwin.
Speaker 4: Just let me know.
Speaker 1: Since you bet everyone, we can know which way you
Speaker 1: went on it. Obviously, the Jets are now getting three.
Speaker 1: Number may change what I see.
Speaker 4: You like the Jets.
Speaker 2: I do like the Jets, Yeah, very good.
Speaker 4: And the Eagles against the Panthers. I think you said
Speaker 4: you took the Eagles, right.
Speaker 2: Yep, yeah, I got Kelly.
Speaker 1: By the way, that number now is coming down to three,
Speaker 1: so I like it at three and a half.
Speaker 4: That's where I got it.
Speaker 2: I got it at three.
Speaker 4: So did you get it three?
Speaker 2: Okay?
Speaker 1: I had it three and a half. I did it
Speaker 1: last night when I checked, So I had it at
Speaker 1: three and a half. At three, it's obviously a little
Speaker 1: bit less enticing, but I think there's a reason that
Speaker 1: it go It's gone down to three, but I got
Speaker 1: it three and a half. I would still take it
Speaker 1: at three, but for my official play, because I bet it,
Speaker 1: I got it at three and a half. We already
Speaker 1: talked about the Bengals getting three from the Packers.
Speaker 4: You like the Packers there?
Speaker 1: What about the dead number of the Titans visiting the
Speaker 1: Jaguars laying four and a half.
Speaker 3: I'll take Tennessee because of the distraction of urban Minor
Speaker 3: and what we saw, particularly in the second half that
Speaker 3: Thursday night came where they made no adjustments at all.
Speaker 2: So if you find something.
Speaker 3: That works in the first half, it's gonna work in
Speaker 3: the second half. Because the Jacksonville coaching staff did adjust
Speaker 3: not at all.
Speaker 2: I hated it. So give me Tennessee.
Speaker 1: I agree with you. I you know, I'm expecting Brown
Speaker 1: and Julio Jones to be out. I mean, it sounds
Speaker 1: like Brown has a better chance than Julio Jones, but regardless,
Speaker 1: I'm expecting both.
Speaker 4: Of them to be out.
Speaker 1: So I don't think you're going to see fireworks necessarily offensive.
Speaker 4: It's true, it is true.
Speaker 1: I mean overtime, right exactly, it was, he actually played
Speaker 1: better than I expected overall speaking, and again, nobody went
Speaker 1: off in that game. But everybody's like you know, from
Speaker 1: fantasy perspective, just right, exactly, just just Derrick Henry and
Speaker 1: close your eyes.
Speaker 2: I thought Westbrook was going to be good because he
Speaker 2: had so much, so many snaps.
Speaker 1: But yeah, right, yeah, now that's how we're I mean,
Speaker 1: I don't and again I don't think anybody's really get
Speaker 1: to go off here.
Speaker 4: Regardless.
Speaker 1: The Jacksonville coaching staff is just so out of their
Speaker 1: depth right now that you know. I think in the
Speaker 1: end it's it's Tennessee by a touchdown, So I would
Speaker 1: like that game as well.
Speaker 4: What about the Bucks laying ten at home to the
Speaker 4: Dolphins here?
Speaker 3: The Dolphins one of the worst teams in the NFL.
Speaker 3: They get overshadowed right now by uh, Pittsburgh being bad
Speaker 3: and uh, you know, Jacksonville being bad, the Jets being bad.
Speaker 3: But Miami without Tua and even maybe with Tua have
Speaker 3: been horrific. So I got angry Tampa Bay team wiping
Speaker 3: the floor with Miami.
Speaker 2: I think this is Tampa Bay easy.
Speaker 1: So I've betted, but I think that'd go the other way.
Speaker 1: And the reason is the Dolphins have been terrible. I agree,
Speaker 1: But I think number one, it's a very very emotional,
Speaker 1: sort of draining game here that they just had against
Speaker 1: the Patriots. For the Bucks, I think the loss of
Speaker 1: Rob Gronkowski is enormous just to his ability to block
Speaker 1: and what they're able to do offensively. Like I realized
Speaker 1: it was because the rain and it's Bill Belichick, but
Speaker 1: I think a lot of their struggles were because of
Speaker 1: the fact that the loss of Gronkowski really does make
Speaker 1: a huge difference there.
Speaker 4: Their defense is really poor.
Speaker 1: I mean, the Dolphins are going to do what every
Speaker 1: other team does, which is say, I'll give you a
Speaker 1: token three runs a game and then we're just gonna
Speaker 1: pass and you don't have Will Fuller, and I think
Speaker 1: that hurts. But Devontai Parker has actually played pretty well.
Speaker 1: I think you'll see a lot of jail mall in
Speaker 1: this game. I think it's going to be close enough
Speaker 1: where I will take the back door cover. I think
Speaker 1: the Bucks are gonna win, but I think the Dolphins
Speaker 1: are going to keep it close enough.
Speaker 2: But I think I think Tampa Bay scores on defense,
Speaker 2: and I think that's.
Speaker 4: The defense that's fair. Let's go.
Speaker 1: What about the Texans getting eight and a half from
Speaker 1: the Pats in New England.
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, close.
Speaker 3: I said thirty five to seven was my final and
Speaker 3: that hits the over. That's I think it's gonna play
Speaker 3: like I knew.
Speaker 1: You were going to say it because you said the
Speaker 1: thirty five seven. I don't want to bet the game,
Speaker 1: but I think I you know what, I'm not even
Speaker 1: going to I think I probably would go with the
Speaker 1: Texans just because, again I have a feeling that they're
Speaker 1: going to keep it. I know, this is what I do.
Speaker 1: I take disgusting dogs. That's why I really, really, you
Speaker 1: know what.
Speaker 3: But there is the point if you get over a
Speaker 3: touchdown in the NFL, it becomes enormously hard to cover.
Speaker 4: That is, and they're on the road with a like
Speaker 4: a rookie. I get how good Belichick is.
Speaker 2: I get like green Bay so much because it's three
Speaker 2: on the road.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 3: If it was much more than that, I probably wouldn't.
Speaker 3: But I think they stopped too.
Speaker 4: So yeah, all right, I look forced to go one way.
Speaker 1: I would go with the Texans, but I do not
Speaker 1: have strong feelings about it. You sound like you do
Speaker 1: a little bit, so you know, go with that. The
Speaker 1: Broncos a visiting the Steelers. We talked that game with
Speaker 1: the over under. The Steelers are laying a point.
Speaker 2: I'm not touching it, but I take Denver.
Speaker 1: You have to go one way, right, you bet every
Speaker 1: game that's what you did. Yes, I'm not betting it either.
Speaker 1: But again I'll go on the other side, and I'll
Speaker 1: go with the Steelers. Here at home again. I don't
Speaker 1: like either. I'm not betting it whatsoever. I just feel
Speaker 1: like man as bad as the Steelers are one in four,
Speaker 1: you know, against the Broncos team that I think really
Speaker 1: is propped up by the fact that they played a
Speaker 1: super soft schedule early on. They've got those injuries. I
Speaker 1: think the defense plays well enough to win this game.
Speaker 1: I like ten to seven game there, Bogman. But yes,
Speaker 1: we'll see hopefully.
Speaker 2: My neighbors also hope you're right.
Speaker 1: All right, go neighbors Vikings. We already talked about like
Speaker 1: nine and a half. How about the Saints visiting Washington
Speaker 1: and Washington is getting two and a half.
Speaker 3: I'll take Washington. New Orleans hasn't done anything on offense.
Speaker 3: I mean, I think Jamis has eight touchdowns, two picks
Speaker 3: five well week one, so just three touchdowns since then
Speaker 3: and two picks. I don't like any of it, but
Speaker 3: I'll take one Washington.
Speaker 4: Here I forced to choose. I'm with you. I will
Speaker 4: take the home dog. But I want nothing to do
Speaker 4: with this game whatsoever.
Speaker 1: So a game though, that I'm mildly intrigued by is
Speaker 1: the Chargers at home against the Browns.
Speaker 4: Chargers laying too what do you think this.
Speaker 2: Is my ultimate runaway game.
Speaker 3: I just because I will just want to sit and
Speaker 3: watch it, right, I just want to see because these
Speaker 3: are two of the best teams in the AFC right now.
Speaker 3: I got the Chargers at home. I think so far
Speaker 3: has become a pretty big home field advantage here.
Speaker 1: Well there, you know, there were I felt like there
Speaker 1: were a lot of Raiders fans though in that game.
Speaker 2: But there were. But the stadium is loud, Yeah it is.
Speaker 2: It's loud, loud, loud.
Speaker 3: So yeah, and look, maybe there'll be some Cleveland fans,
Speaker 3: but I don't think they travel.
Speaker 2: I mean, the Raid was already Raider Country in LA.
Speaker 4: That's true. That's a good point. That's a good point.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: I like the Chargers here. If I have to go
Speaker 4: one way, you know, I'll i'll.
Speaker 1: The Chargers have impressed me greatly because it's basically what
Speaker 1: we thought the Chargers could be had they avoided injuries
Speaker 1: and had a better coaching staff for like the last
Speaker 1: couple of years. Like they have a very strong defensive,
Speaker 1: very strong offensive line. Quarterbacker really knows what he's doing.
Speaker 1: The Mayfield Old injury, I think you I think that's
Speaker 1: probably why sort of we were like, why did Baker
Speaker 1: Mayfield have the worst game of his career?
Speaker 4: Right?
Speaker 1: And again without Darvis Landry still there. I really think
Speaker 1: that hurts him and their ability. So I think the
Speaker 1: Chargers win. I'll lay the two points. Again, not one
Speaker 1: of my best bests, but I would lay the two points.
Speaker 1: How about the Raiders hosting the Bears laying five and
Speaker 1: a half.
Speaker 3: I'll take the Raiders to bounce back. They did just
Speaker 3: say that they're going to move Leatherwood to guard, which
Speaker 3: is I mean, get anybody else at right tackle?
Speaker 2: Right? Leatherwood's been horrific.
Speaker 1: So it's funny because every we all thought that was
Speaker 1: such a brilliant pick at the time they made right.
Speaker 1: Everybody lauded it and said great pick, right Joe, nobody
Speaker 1: liked it.
Speaker 4: Nobody.
Speaker 3: Maybe he can work out at tackle next year, but
Speaker 3: it is not working right now. I think they said
Speaker 3: weeks one through four he's the lowest graded rookie starting
Speaker 3: tackle since two thousand and six on PFF, which.
Speaker 4: They make such crazy picks during that draft.
Speaker 1: Man, every single time, it's the Raiders man, it's the
Speaker 1: Raiders man.
Speaker 2: Mcclin ferrell was there.
Speaker 3: You know what is the number four, number five overall
Speaker 3: pick and now he's not even playing.
Speaker 1: They just it's it's like, it's terrible. Really, I agree
Speaker 1: with you, by the way, I agree with you. If
Speaker 1: I have to go one way, I'm going with the
Speaker 1: Raiders in this game. I do think it's a bounced
Speaker 1: back spot.
Speaker 2: But yeah, Fields is just not very trustable yet.
Speaker 4: Not yet. I'm hopeful for later.
Speaker 3: I think he's going to be great, but you can't
Speaker 3: trust him yet. They're not opening it up.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, how about the Cowboys hosting the Giants laying seven.
Speaker 3: I want to go with the Giants, but they're two
Speaker 3: banged up. Leonard Williams is questionable for this game, so
Speaker 3: he's not going to be one hundred percent like Martinez
Speaker 3: just went out for the year. I like what Dallas
Speaker 3: is doing on offense in particular, so I'm going to
Speaker 3: take the Cowboys at home.
Speaker 1: I'm staying away from it because again, this is when
Speaker 1: this when Danny Danny Dimes comes through a little bit
Speaker 1: here on the road. Right in these games game divisional game,
Speaker 1: you know, I'm staying away though this is a game
Speaker 1: I do just want to kind of watch, but I'm
Speaker 1: just staying away. But if you got to go somewhere,
Speaker 1: You're going with the Cowboys.
Speaker 4: If I got to go somewhere, I am jumping out
Speaker 4: the window.
Speaker 1: Let's go to the Cardinals laying five at home against
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers.
Speaker 3: Cardinals, they match up well, and the Cardinals just came
Speaker 3: off a very impressive win running the ball against the Rams,
Speaker 3: which I never thought we would say Cardinals run the
Speaker 3: ball and win, but they did it. So they're showing
Speaker 3: more sides than just being one dimensional, which is going
Speaker 3: to play into their hands against this bad secondary for
Speaker 3: San Francisco.
Speaker 2: So give me the Cardinals at home.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just feel like I don't have enough of
Speaker 1: a sense of what the four nineers are going to
Speaker 1: look like offensively anyway for me to have anything.
Speaker 2: Trey Lance maybe Jimmy g all right, who is it
Speaker 2: going to be?
Speaker 1: And if it's Trey Lance, I don't feel like comfortable
Speaker 1: enough to know exactly what I'd see from them anywhere.
Speaker 1: I again another stay away from me. Forced to go somewhere,
Speaker 1: I would go with the Cardinals. Like you, the game
Speaker 1: that everybody wants to watch on Sunday night, the Bills
Speaker 1: visiting the Chiefs.
Speaker 4: The Chiefs are three point favorites.
Speaker 3: I'm going to take the Buffalo Bills on the road
Speaker 3: in Kansas City. Don't particularly love this game, but I
Speaker 3: do think the Bills are clicking on all cylinders. After
Speaker 3: losing the Pittsburgh Week one at home, they've been playing angry,
Speaker 3: they've been running it up. I think they look great
Speaker 3: right now. They're one of the best teams in the NFL.
Speaker 3: So I'm going to take Buffalo.
Speaker 1: I agree with you that first game against Pittsburgh, you know,
Speaker 1: I think there were some question marks, right They were
Speaker 1: a little bit like, oh no, is this a regression
Speaker 1: that we didn't see coming. But they've played really well
Speaker 1: since then.
Speaker 4: I agree.
Speaker 1: I'm probably not gonna bet it because I just want
Speaker 1: to watch it right, But it's I think the Bills
Speaker 1: are the right side here catching the points. Final game
Speaker 1: here Monday Night Football, the Colts are visiting the Ravens.
Speaker 1: The Ravens are laying.
Speaker 2: Hate this game. Don't like it at all. I take it.
Speaker 3: Forced to pick, I'm going to take Baltimore because I
Speaker 3: just don't like what the Colts have been doing on offense.
Speaker 3: In particular, you need to give the ball more to
Speaker 3: Jonathan Taylor. But Carson Wentz is already banged up, so
Speaker 3: ye give me Baltimore, and they seem to be winning
Speaker 3: everything by the skin of their teeth. But yeah, they
Speaker 3: should have one good win here soon.
Speaker 4: I agree with you. I would go Baltimore here as well.
Speaker 4: And again there are a couple of books bet MGM.
Speaker 1: Noticeably that's at six and a half, so if you
Speaker 1: want to if you can get that, that's obviously better.
Speaker 1: I would also go with Baltimore, but again it's mostly
Speaker 1: a stay away. Okay, very briefly, I will recap our
Speaker 1: best bets and then we will say goodbye to everyone.
Speaker 4: Bogwin, you are.
Speaker 1: Taking the Packers laying three to the Bengals, the Patriots
Speaker 1: and the Texans over thirty nine and a half points,
Speaker 1: and the Vikings laying nine and a half points to
Speaker 1: the Lions. I'm taking the Steelers in the Broncos under
Speaker 1: thirty nine and a half, the Eagles getting three and
Speaker 1: a half in Carolina.
Speaker 4: If you've got to take it at three, that's fine.
Speaker 1: But I will take the three and a half because
Speaker 1: I locked it in and the Jets and the Falcons
Speaker 1: currently over forty five and a half. But again I
Speaker 1: would wait at this point because I think that number
Speaker 1: is coming down. Bogman, thank you for joining me, for
Speaker 1: time traveling, for doing everything.
Speaker 4: I love it.
Speaker 1: You are crushing it on the College Football Pod. By
Speaker 1: the way, if you play fantasy because I know it's
Speaker 1: betting pros, Bogman is also our IDP expert and he
Speaker 1: crushes it there.
Speaker 4: He also crushes it just generally as a fantasy expert.
Speaker 1: But here's everything Bogmin in addition to here at betting pros,
Speaker 1: in addition to Fantasy pros, tell everybody where they can
Speaker 1: find you.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean obviously in this league. With myself in
Speaker 3: the Welsh we do fantasy football three times a week.
Speaker 3: We do two shows and then a betting show as well.
Speaker 3: I do Line Star with my buddy Casey Bubba as
Speaker 3: well talking about NFL bets and of course betting pros
Speaker 3: here and sports Scrid as well, and a thousand other
Speaker 3: individual defensive podcast you know the il CFF. So all
Speaker 3: the stuff and things you can find me everywhere.
Speaker 4: Hardest working manage show business.
Speaker 1: Well, I really appreciate you coming on and you guys
Speaker 1: know what the deal is.
Speaker 4: Enjoy your weekend, all year football.
Speaker 1: We'll be back on Monday, Breaking down some of the
Speaker 1: early reaction to the week six
Speaker 4: Lines, I'll talk to you then,