WEBVTT - NFL Week 5 Best Bets (Ep. 113) 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:16.720 Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast. I'm 0:00:16.760 --> 0:00:18.880 your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at Dan 0:00:18.920 --> 0:00:21.360 Harris Hadi. It is week five, it is time for 0:00:21.480 --> 0:00:24.079 our best bets, and here with me is a guy 0:00:24.120 --> 0:00:26.479 you know, a guy you love, Scott Vogman. You know 0:00:26.560 --> 0:00:28.800 him from the College Football podcast. You know him as 0:00:28.840 --> 0:00:31.480 co hosted in this league podcast. Find him on Twitter 0:00:31.480 --> 0:00:35.280 at Bogman Sports. Joining us straight from Victorian England. Bogman, 0:00:35.320 --> 0:00:36.160 how are you today? 0:00:36.560 --> 0:00:37.360 I'm doing great. 0:00:37.400 --> 0:00:41.280 I'm definitely, you know, not the stereotypical person that loves 0:00:41.280 --> 0:00:44.320 fantasy sports and sports living at home with mom. 0:00:44.520 --> 0:00:45.400 So that's good. 0:00:45.600 --> 0:00:47.879 You know, you know, you do what you gotta do 0:00:48.000 --> 0:00:50.040 man to get bye. Yes if you hopefully you're watching. 0:00:50.040 --> 0:00:52.600 If you're not, please go to YouTube dot com slash 0:00:52.600 --> 0:00:55.360 Betting Pros that you can see his lovely background which 0:00:55.880 --> 0:00:58.320 looks like a lovely lady's bedroom, which is fine. 0:00:58.600 --> 0:01:00.360 I know you've got some construction going. 0:01:00.200 --> 0:01:01.760 On instruction in the house, right. 0:01:02.800 --> 0:01:05.600 I still appreciate you making the time for us despite 0:01:05.600 --> 0:01:07.200 all that. So how you guys know what this is? 0:01:07.240 --> 0:01:10.040 It's our three best bets of the weekend, whether it's 0:01:10.080 --> 0:01:12.839 against the spread, whether it's over under, whether it's money 0:01:12.920 --> 0:01:14.520 line or whatever, and then we'll quickly run through the 0:01:14.520 --> 0:01:17.000 remaining games. A couple of housekeeping items before we get in, 0:01:17.040 --> 0:01:21.280 including the most recent offer from bet mgm our sponsor. 0:01:21.560 --> 0:01:24.560 New customers, bet ten dollars win two hundred dollars if 0:01:24.600 --> 0:01:28.560 your team scores a TD again. That is a that 0:01:28.640 --> 0:01:30.720 is two hundred dollars part of me in free bets. 0:01:30.720 --> 0:01:32.720 When you've bet an NFL game and the team you 0:01:32.800 --> 0:01:36.360 bet on to win scores a touchdown. That is available 0:01:36.440 --> 0:01:43.880 in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington, DC, Arizona, 0:01:44.160 --> 0:01:46.480 and Wyoming when you use the code Juice one hundred 0:01:46.480 --> 0:01:49.960 again Juice the Daily Juice, our daily podcast hosted by 0:01:49.960 --> 0:01:51.920 Matt Parol. That's the code Juice one hundred for new 0:01:51.960 --> 0:01:55.160 customers over at bet MGM. Second, we are giving away 0:01:55.160 --> 0:01:56.680 a signed Saquon. 0:01:56.520 --> 0:01:58.840 Barkley, Jersey. Just leave review for the show. 0:01:58.640 --> 0:02:01.680 On Apple podcasts you want about good, leave review talk 0:02:01.720 --> 0:02:04.920 about how great you are on Apple podcasts or cashbox, 0:02:04.920 --> 0:02:06.520 and then go to Betting pros dot com slash review. 0:02:06.680 --> 0:02:09.560 Here's a great part Bogman. I assume you're subscribed already 0:02:09.639 --> 0:02:12.000 to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash betting Pros. 0:02:12.040 --> 0:02:14.320 Of course, that counts as three times the entries into 0:02:14.360 --> 0:02:18.320 the contest. Congratulations, good job, hopefully you get it. Actually, 0:02:18.600 --> 0:02:20.680 just to be clear, we are prohibited from winning the contest. 0:02:20.680 --> 0:02:22.680 I'm sorry. I'm sorry about that, man. I can you 0:02:22.720 --> 0:02:23.600 just send it to me and give away? 0:02:23.880 --> 0:02:24.400 Yeah, you got it. 0:02:24.800 --> 0:02:27.840 I'll win you want on Christine auction. Everything's so inexpensive 0:02:27.840 --> 0:02:30.239 there anyway, who cares? All right, let's get into it again. 0:02:30.280 --> 0:02:32.280 We have consensus lines over at bettingpros dot com, but 0:02:32.320 --> 0:02:34.840 there are different books, so we will note that as well. Briefly, 0:02:34.880 --> 0:02:36.760 let's recap last week. It was a good week for 0:02:36.800 --> 0:02:40.400 our little podcast here. Pat Fitzmorris hit on the Jets 0:02:40.400 --> 0:02:42.200 getting seven from the Titans, and he also said we 0:02:42.200 --> 0:02:44.000 should sprinkle on the money line, which we did. 0:02:44.080 --> 0:02:45.240 That went well, and the. 0:02:45.160 --> 0:02:47.440 Eagles and the Chiefs over fifty four, which that went 0:02:47.520 --> 0:02:49.919 way over. He did miss on the Panthers getting four 0:02:50.240 --> 0:02:52.120 from the Cowboys. As for me, I hit on all 0:02:52.160 --> 0:02:54.280 three of my best bets, the Ravens Broncos. 0:02:54.720 --> 0:02:56.160 How's it going under forty? 0:02:56.680 --> 0:02:58.880 Under forty five and a half for the Ravens, Broncos, 0:02:59.040 --> 0:03:01.120 Giants getting seven and half from the Saints, and the 0:03:01.120 --> 0:03:03.800 Steelers Packers under forty five and a half. So I 0:03:03.840 --> 0:03:05.400 am five and one over the last two weeks. So 0:03:05.400 --> 0:03:07.639 if I do poorly hear it is Bogwin's fault. As 0:03:07.680 --> 0:03:10.120 we generally know, bog when you were the guests again, 0:03:10.160 --> 0:03:11.120 you were time traveling. 0:03:11.160 --> 0:03:14.079 So please go ahead give us your best bet of 0:03:14.160 --> 0:03:15.360 the weekend for the NFL. 0:03:15.760 --> 0:03:18.120 My favorite one is the over on the New England 0:03:18.200 --> 0:03:20.560 and Houston game, and it's not because I think these 0:03:21.040 --> 0:03:24.079 offenses are going to be explosive at all. I expect 0:03:24.480 --> 0:03:27.280 three and outs from Houston. I expect short fields for 0:03:27.320 --> 0:03:30.920 New England, which sets up for easy touchdowns, probably some 0:03:31.000 --> 0:03:33.919 turnovers as well. So I see this game playing out 0:03:34.000 --> 0:03:36.520 as like a thirty five to seven something like that. 0:03:36.560 --> 0:03:38.960 The overs thirty nine and a half, and it could 0:03:38.960 --> 0:03:40.400 be even worse than that. And if we get some 0:03:40.440 --> 0:03:43.240 garbage sign from Houston, which you don't see against Bill 0:03:43.240 --> 0:03:46.720 Belichick a lot, but it can happen, I think it 0:03:46.760 --> 0:03:48.480 goes way over that. So I think that number is 0:03:48.520 --> 0:03:51.240 just a little bit too low. Knowing that both these 0:03:51.280 --> 0:03:54.840 offenses aren't fantastic. I just think that you know, you're 0:03:54.840 --> 0:03:57.520 gonna set up short fields for Belichick, He's gonna take advantage, 0:03:57.560 --> 0:03:58.640 and he's gonna run up the score. 0:03:58.640 --> 0:03:59.920 It's what he does well. 0:04:00.200 --> 0:04:04.040 Spoiler That is a very very low total, obviously, and 0:04:04.120 --> 0:04:06.720 spoiler alert, my first pick will also be a total. 0:04:06.760 --> 0:04:08.480 But I am actually gonna go under with my total. 0:04:08.520 --> 0:04:11.040 But I will talk about this with this. I'm wondering 0:04:11.040 --> 0:04:13.680 what you think of this bagman that I think that 0:04:13.720 --> 0:04:16.520 the Texans may put up a little more of a 0:04:16.560 --> 0:04:18.719 fight here, and not not that that goes against the 0:04:18.839 --> 0:04:20.080 over whatsoever anything. 0:04:20.200 --> 0:04:21.960 Probably it probably goes towards the over. 0:04:22.160 --> 0:04:23.400 But I think, you know, you've got a little bit 0:04:23.440 --> 0:04:25.240 of a letdown spot here for the Patriots, where that 0:04:25.320 --> 0:04:28.920 defense played so incredibly well, you got the Texans, which 0:04:28.920 --> 0:04:31.560 I think I feel like the market is just generally 0:04:31.640 --> 0:04:34.560 undervaluing because it's a short memory and you just saw 0:04:34.600 --> 0:04:38.039 them get absolutely obliterated by the Bills. I think this 0:04:38.200 --> 0:04:41.440 game could see some points on both sides here, and 0:04:41.680 --> 0:04:43.520 you know, I wouldn't be surprised if it, you know, 0:04:43.880 --> 0:04:46.800 went over by you know, a hearty amount. I'm not 0:04:46.800 --> 0:04:48.839 like wanting to do it. But I do feel like 0:04:48.920 --> 0:04:50.640 the Texans are going to be able to put up, 0:04:50.920 --> 0:04:53.120 you know, a little more points. I feel like then 0:04:53.320 --> 0:04:54.919 I think the general public is expecting. 0:04:54.960 --> 0:04:55.520 What do you think. 0:04:55.720 --> 0:04:56.560 I hope you're right. 0:04:57.400 --> 0:04:59.800 I just have no trust and no faith in Davis 0:04:59.839 --> 0:05:03.080 math And I didn't really like him coming out of 0:05:03.120 --> 0:05:04.000 the draft anyway. 0:05:04.240 --> 0:05:05.640 I thought he went too high. 0:05:05.760 --> 0:05:08.520 It was the Texans first pick, and I don't think 0:05:08.520 --> 0:05:11.039 they put him in very good positions here. You know, 0:05:12.360 --> 0:05:14.760 his very first start was on short rest. Then his 0:05:14.839 --> 0:05:17.960 next start was on the road against Buffalo, who was angry. 0:05:18.160 --> 0:05:21.320 So and this this game against Bill Belichick, one of 0:05:21.320 --> 0:05:24.760 the best chess piece masterminds in the history of the NFL. 0:05:25.480 --> 0:05:28.360 Not very great. They're not putting it. They're not putting 0:05:28.400 --> 0:05:31.200 him in a position to succeed here. So I hope 0:05:31.200 --> 0:05:33.000 you're right. I hope we see some No, I would 0:05:33.040 --> 0:05:35.680 love to get some fantasy production out of somebody in 0:05:36.360 --> 0:05:39.200 not named Brandon Cooks. Brandon Cooks, even after the bad week, 0:05:39.279 --> 0:05:42.000 is still overall pretty decent. And we get Ty Rod 0:05:42.040 --> 0:05:46.200 back next week fingers crossed, hopefully, hopefully, But yeah, I mean, 0:05:46.240 --> 0:05:48.680 I just don't see much fight from Houston, right Now. 0:05:48.600 --> 0:05:51.200 I completely agree with you on Mills, other than the 0:05:51.240 --> 0:05:53.840 fact that I did think like he looked better than 0:05:53.839 --> 0:05:56.599 I expected, I think against the Panthers in that Thursday 0:05:56.680 --> 0:05:58.520 night game, because I don't have much right. 0:05:58.680 --> 0:06:01.400 I mean, yeah, he looked better on a no huddle, 0:06:01.680 --> 0:06:03.480 So maybe he's going to put some of that in 0:06:03.520 --> 0:06:05.680 there for him, Maybe a little hurry up offense, maybe 0:06:05.720 --> 0:06:08.200 something like that play to his strengths. 0:06:08.279 --> 0:06:09.760 But he wasn't that good at Stanford. 0:06:09.760 --> 0:06:12.280 He was an enormous, like yeah, ninety nine point nine 0:06:12.400 --> 0:06:16.040 nine nine two four seven recruit there. Just was never 0:06:16.080 --> 0:06:19.240 played great there either, So I was just a little 0:06:19.320 --> 0:06:21.080 leary on him coming in and he should not be 0:06:21.120 --> 0:06:22.760 starting this early in his NFL career. 0:06:23.080 --> 0:06:24.719 I completely agree with all of that, but I do 0:06:24.839 --> 0:06:26.320 like the over. I do lean that way as well. 0:06:26.320 --> 0:06:28.080 If I went somewhere, I am going to go with 0:06:28.080 --> 0:06:29.760 the same total, but I am going to go under 0:06:29.839 --> 0:06:32.240 despite how low it is. And it is the Steelers 0:06:32.320 --> 0:06:34.800 Broncos at that same number thirty nine and a half. You 0:06:34.800 --> 0:06:36.480 just heard me recap last week. I went under the 0:06:36.480 --> 0:06:40.839 Broncos game last week. They are now four and oh 0:06:40.880 --> 0:06:43.280 toward the under, and I think there is a real 0:06:43.920 --> 0:06:45.240 reason for that. I think they're going to be five 0:06:45.279 --> 0:06:47.000 and out here to the ender again thirty nine and 0:06:47.000 --> 0:06:49.440 a half. It's an incredibly small number of bagman as 0:06:49.440 --> 0:06:51.080 we sort of talked about. But you can start with 0:06:51.160 --> 0:06:54.520 the big basics, which is these are two very, very 0:06:54.880 --> 0:06:58.640 solid defenses. The Broncos are seventh in defensive DVA and 0:06:58.640 --> 0:07:01.680 waited defensive dv so they've played some cake matchups, but 0:07:01.760 --> 0:07:03.640 obviously waited DVA takes. 0:07:03.440 --> 0:07:04.159 That into account. 0:07:04.200 --> 0:07:06.520 The Steelers are twenty second, but really where they've struggled 0:07:06.600 --> 0:07:09.240 is their pass defense. Twenty third in defensive DVOA against 0:07:09.240 --> 0:07:13.000 the past, but seventh in defensive DVOA against the run, 0:07:13.040 --> 0:07:14.880 and again what was out for a couple of. 0:07:14.840 --> 0:07:15.920 Those games, So that matters too. 0:07:15.920 --> 0:07:18.600 And if you're struggling against the pass, the Broncos are 0:07:18.600 --> 0:07:20.400 a pretty good matchup right now because they're middle of 0:07:20.440 --> 0:07:22.720 the road. But again, no Jerry Judy, I think the 0:07:22.760 --> 0:07:24.960 loss of kJ Handler is big, and not again I 0:07:24.960 --> 0:07:27.880 said this last week, not because of his production, but 0:07:27.960 --> 0:07:30.520 because it's the field stretcher that opens up these sort 0:07:30.520 --> 0:07:33.400 of intermediate routes. Right for Tim Patrick, who I love, 0:07:33.640 --> 0:07:36.440 for Courtland Sutton who I love, and without that stretch 0:07:36.480 --> 0:07:38.080 in the field. I think it's really difficult for them 0:07:38.120 --> 0:07:41.640 to get drives going unless they can run the ball effectively, 0:07:41.640 --> 0:07:43.480 which again Melvin Gorn a little banged up, and again 0:07:43.520 --> 0:07:46.560 the Steelers have a strong run defense. And this is 0:07:46.600 --> 0:07:49.560 to say nothing of the fact, Bagman, that we don't 0:07:49.560 --> 0:07:51.480 even know if Teddy Bridgewater is going to play in 0:07:51.560 --> 0:07:53.520 this game, right, I mean that is the thing. Like 0:07:53.560 --> 0:07:55.920 it could be Drew Lack, he's progressing out of the concussion, 0:07:55.960 --> 0:07:59.080 but we still don't know. So it's hard for me 0:07:59.160 --> 0:08:01.920 to see either teams scoring points, especially with a pumped 0:08:01.960 --> 0:08:04.160 up crowd. Well, certainly Denver scoring points with a pumped 0:08:04.240 --> 0:08:06.440 up crowd. And for the Steelers, like we know how 0:08:06.440 --> 0:08:09.200 bad the Steelers are offense, Yeah, like this has earned 0:08:09.520 --> 0:08:12.320 how bad they are. They're twenty third in offensive pass DVA, 0:08:12.800 --> 0:08:17.360 twenty seventh in offensive rushing DVOA. The offensive line is terrible, 0:08:17.680 --> 0:08:22.360 Ben is banged up, Claypool may not play. To me, Blagman, 0:08:22.400 --> 0:08:24.800 I feel like there has to be a defensive scorer here, 0:08:25.280 --> 0:08:28.440 or a turnover deep in someone's territory for this to 0:08:28.880 --> 0:08:32.000 really put up points. I've been going with the unders 0:08:32.000 --> 0:08:34.360 for the Broncos the whole year. I'm sticking with it 0:08:34.400 --> 0:08:37.560 even with this especially because again, I just there's nothing 0:08:37.559 --> 0:08:39.200 to get excited about with the Pittsburgh offense. 0:08:39.480 --> 0:08:41.800 I picked the over make of my picks in this game, 0:08:41.840 --> 0:08:43.720 but it's just because the number is so low for 0:08:43.800 --> 0:08:44.520 both of these teams. 0:08:44.559 --> 0:08:46.839 I'm a Steelers fan. They've got nothing on it. 0:08:46.920 --> 0:08:49.360 Oh right, Ben can't throw the ball. 0:08:49.200 --> 0:08:52.400 Down down the field. You know, he missed Juju for 0:08:52.480 --> 0:08:53.439 two touchdowns. 0:08:53.559 --> 0:08:55.480 Yes, last week, those wide open on that. 0:08:55.559 --> 0:08:59.720 Yeah, he missed, you know, almost like Marquise Brown dropping 0:08:59.720 --> 0:09:01.600 the ball a couple of weeks ago, which also played 0:09:01.600 --> 0:09:02.280 towards the under. 0:09:02.480 --> 0:09:03.080 You know what I mean. 0:09:03.160 --> 0:09:06.640 So I understand where you're coming from on the under. 0:09:07.240 --> 0:09:12.040 Its specifically with uh these guys in Denver really banged up. 0:09:12.080 --> 0:09:14.800 Pittsburgh banged up too, but just bad on the offensive line. 0:09:14.880 --> 0:09:17.320 So the one thing I was listened to a Steelers 0:09:17.320 --> 0:09:20.720 podcast before we fired today, and there's this crazy stat 0:09:20.720 --> 0:09:23.760 about Cam Hayward. With Cam Hayward on the field, Steelers 0:09:23.840 --> 0:09:27.640 run defense three yards per carry. Without Cam Hayward on 0:09:27.640 --> 0:09:34.520 the field eight point three per care. So that'sicly, he's questionable. 0:09:34.520 --> 0:09:36.720 He's gonna play, He's going to play, but if he 0:09:37.080 --> 0:09:40.720 has to leave early or something real ugly for Pittsburgh. 0:09:40.720 --> 0:09:43.200 Boy, all right, that's a good point. I was assuming 0:09:43.240 --> 0:09:44.720 that he's gonna play, But you're right, Like. 0:09:46.480 --> 0:09:49.839 Cam Hayward, he sat down for five minutes, left the field, 0:09:50.040 --> 0:09:53.160 came back after one snap like he plays through everything 0:09:53.320 --> 0:09:53.720 he does. 0:09:54.679 --> 0:09:57.959 Ironheads Son, you know, yeah. 0:09:57.480 --> 0:09:59.720 All right, all right, let's get to your second bat. 0:09:59.720 --> 0:10:00.440 What do you here? 0:10:00.720 --> 0:10:02.200 I'm gonna take Green Bay minus three. 0:10:02.600 --> 0:10:05.479 I know they're on the road against Cincinnati, and Cincinnati 0:10:05.520 --> 0:10:08.920 has looked pretty decent, but have they played anybody really? 0:10:09.000 --> 0:10:09.600 You know what I mean? 0:10:09.880 --> 0:10:13.080 They they should have lost to Jacksonville on short rest 0:10:13.160 --> 0:10:15.800 at home. I don't like that they beat a bad 0:10:16.000 --> 0:10:20.240 Pittsburgh team. You know, they beat Minnesota in overtime, so 0:10:20.440 --> 0:10:24.640 I get it. Cincinnati looks good, but Aaron Rodgers is 0:10:24.679 --> 0:10:27.720 now clicking on all cylinders. I know this is a 0:10:27.800 --> 0:10:30.000 road game for them, but I don't really care. I 0:10:30.000 --> 0:10:31.840 think they're gonna go in there. They're gonna run down 0:10:31.880 --> 0:10:35.040 Cincinnati's throat and they're gonna throw over their heads. 0:10:35.240 --> 0:10:36.880 Cincinnati still has some banged up guys. 0:10:36.920 --> 0:10:39.599 I know Jesse Bates is coming back, Woozy is a 0:10:39.640 --> 0:10:42.560 little questionable, I think in this game as well. I 0:10:42.600 --> 0:10:46.200 know we're gonna get you know, Jay R Alexander's gonna 0:10:46.200 --> 0:10:48.440 miss this game for green Bay correct, which doesn't play 0:10:48.440 --> 0:10:50.840 towards them, but Joe Mixon is out too, so I 0:10:50.840 --> 0:10:54.080 think Cincinnati becomes fairly one dimensional as well. So I 0:10:54.120 --> 0:10:57.200 think this Green Bay minus three is a little short, 0:10:57.559 --> 0:10:59.560 and I like them on the road, and I love 0:10:59.600 --> 0:11:02.079 that ESQ later of sadness since I'm a Steeler. 0:11:02.200 --> 0:11:05.280 So what's interesting to me, Bagwin is that when I 0:11:05.280 --> 0:11:07.640 looked at this, when Joe and I actually looked at 0:11:07.640 --> 0:11:09.559 it on Monday, I think it was three and a 0:11:09.600 --> 0:11:11.320 half at the time. And my guess is that this 0:11:11.400 --> 0:11:14.079 is a sharp sort of the sharps are going to 0:11:14.120 --> 0:11:16.000 be on the Bengals in this game, because I think 0:11:16.040 --> 0:11:18.360 that probably the public is going to be backing the 0:11:18.400 --> 0:11:20.560 Packers if it were three and a half, if it 0:11:20.559 --> 0:11:22.360 bounce back to there, would you still like it there? 0:11:22.440 --> 0:11:23.640 Or is it just that three? 0:11:24.800 --> 0:11:25.079 Okay? 0:11:25.160 --> 0:11:28.240 I think I think Green Bay just they're just going 0:11:28.320 --> 0:11:30.559 to move the ball better. And I specifically like what 0:11:30.600 --> 0:11:33.320 age we saw from ag dyllon last week. Once they 0:11:33.320 --> 0:11:36.600 get a lead is in the fourth quarter, against tire defenses. 0:11:36.679 --> 0:11:38.679 That is what that dude is built for. 0:11:38.840 --> 0:11:40.640 Yeah, you give him the ball in the fourth quarter 0:11:40.679 --> 0:11:43.959 and he runs over all those tired linemen and linebackers 0:11:43.960 --> 0:11:47.280 and safeties. So I just I like what Green Bay 0:11:47.320 --> 0:11:48.800 is doing. I think they're clicking right now. 0:11:49.160 --> 0:11:51.160 Yeah, it's going to be interesting. I'm not I don't 0:11:51.160 --> 0:11:53.080 have a lean one way or the other on this game. 0:11:53.160 --> 0:11:55.320 I because again, I think T Higgins is probably going 0:11:55.400 --> 0:11:57.120 to make it back for this game, and I know 0:11:57.160 --> 0:11:58.760 there's not gonna be Joe Mix and then we've seen 0:11:58.800 --> 0:12:01.760 smaj p Ryan do. But I do think that the 0:12:01.800 --> 0:12:04.360 Packers being down almost certainly down Jay R Alexander. I 0:12:04.400 --> 0:12:06.000 don't know if he's actually been declared out yet, but 0:12:06.000 --> 0:12:08.079 I assume he's going to miss. And with T Higgins 0:12:08.080 --> 0:12:09.560 coming back, I mean, I think the Bengals are going 0:12:09.600 --> 0:12:11.080 to be able to put up a lot of points here. 0:12:11.360 --> 0:12:13.440 But I just I don't have a good feel for it. 0:12:13.480 --> 0:12:14.959 So it's a stay away from me. But I like 0:12:15.000 --> 0:12:16.560 where you're going. There's no way you like this game, 0:12:16.600 --> 0:12:19.040 by the way, because I'm the last human being who 0:12:19.080 --> 0:12:22.079 basically wants to bet on the Philadelphia Eagles right now, 0:12:22.120 --> 0:12:23.679 and it is the Eagles plus three and a half 0:12:23.679 --> 0:12:25.520 in Calrolina, and I'm going down with the shit. 0:12:25.520 --> 0:12:28.120 What you did. I did pick the Eagles, so. 0:12:28.160 --> 0:12:29.480 I knew I had you on for a reason. 0:12:29.520 --> 0:12:31.680 But I don't love the game. But I did pick 0:12:31.720 --> 0:12:35.040 the Eagles. I don't. Okay, Carolina has really beat anyone impressive. 0:12:35.480 --> 0:12:37.680 That's great. That is where we get to. By the way, 0:12:37.720 --> 0:12:40.080 like I I think Carolina. 0:12:40.160 --> 0:12:41.880 Strategy was Cincy, same deal. 0:12:41.960 --> 0:12:44.280 Okay, I think that that's fair. It's a fair strategy. 0:12:44.280 --> 0:12:46.319 Then let's go and you get to back the Packers 0:12:46.360 --> 0:12:48.319 though taking on since I have to take the Eagles, 0:12:48.320 --> 0:12:50.559 so that's worse for me. But you're right, Yeah, they 0:12:50.559 --> 0:12:53.000 beat up right who they beat up on? The Jets, 0:12:53.040 --> 0:12:56.080 the Saints, the Texans. That's not that impressive. Then we 0:12:56.120 --> 0:12:58.720 saw holes again in their defense, especially when they go 0:12:58.800 --> 0:12:59.439 up against. 0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:01.840 The Cowboys, which by the way, that was them off 0:13:01.840 --> 0:13:02.920 of Mini bi right. 0:13:02.840 --> 0:13:04.520 Like they had the Thursday night game, so they got 0:13:04.559 --> 0:13:06.320 to go and the Cowboys were off a short week 0:13:06.360 --> 0:13:09.400 there as well, so Thompson. 0:13:09.240 --> 0:13:11.640 And they're pretty banged up. That's what I'm saying. 0:13:11.679 --> 0:13:14.360 On defensively, so I know I don't is Gilmore is 0:13:14.360 --> 0:13:15.160 not gonna play in this game? 0:13:15.240 --> 0:13:15.640 Is he No? 0:13:15.800 --> 0:13:16.880 I can't imagine he does. 0:13:17.080 --> 0:13:19.120 Even if he does, he's not gonna know the playbook 0:13:19.160 --> 0:13:21.840 or anything like that. I know Christian McCaffrey's playing, but 0:13:21.880 --> 0:13:24.240 I don't expect him to play in this game either. 0:13:24.280 --> 0:13:27.520 And again, Sam Darnold from a fantasy perspective has been great, 0:13:27.559 --> 0:13:30.000 but you know, I have not been overly impressed with 0:13:30.040 --> 0:13:32.640 him from a real life standpoint, Like I'm glad he's 0:13:32.720 --> 0:13:34.719 rushing for the touchdowns everything like that, but he has 0:13:34.760 --> 0:13:37.040 not struck me as the type of guy who's going 0:13:37.120 --> 0:13:38.880 to win you any games. And the big thing with 0:13:38.920 --> 0:13:40.320 the Panthers d by the way, is they get a 0:13:40.320 --> 0:13:41.840 ton of pressure, right, Like that's what they do. 0:13:41.880 --> 0:13:44.280 They get pressure almost better than anybody in the league. 0:13:44.320 --> 0:13:46.920 But the thing is that pressure is not really what 0:13:47.040 --> 0:13:49.000 works with the Eagles. Number one, their offensive line. 0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:51.680 Obviously it's been banged up and you had Lane Johnson 0:13:51.679 --> 0:13:53.640 missed last week for personal reason. Sounds like he's going 0:13:53.679 --> 0:13:55.560 to play in this game. They're getting a little healthier. 0:13:55.559 --> 0:13:57.720 But either way against Jalen Hurts just doesn't work. That's 0:13:57.720 --> 0:14:00.880 not the way his escapability. He's been good here when 0:14:00.920 --> 0:14:01.959 he's gotten pressured. 0:14:02.000 --> 0:14:04.880 So so you're gonna take chin Away too, because chin 0:14:05.000 --> 0:14:07.120 I think it's gonna be spying him most of the time. 0:14:07.240 --> 0:14:09.360 So yep, that takes a playmaker out. 0:14:09.559 --> 0:14:11.600 So great point. Great point as well. 0:14:11.640 --> 0:14:13.000 So this to me, I don't know if the Eagles 0:14:13.040 --> 0:14:15.120 are gonna win this game necessarily, but I do think 0:14:15.120 --> 0:14:17.080 they're gonna be able to keep this close. So this 0:14:17.160 --> 0:14:18.920 strikes me as a field goal game. If you're giving 0:14:18.920 --> 0:14:20.600 me the hook, that's where I'm gonna take it. And 0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:22.240 even if you're not that excited about it, you picked 0:14:22.240 --> 0:14:23.880 it as well, right, and the betting goes up, So 0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:27.800 we're basically simpatico here, Right, you're all in on the Eagles, 0:14:27.800 --> 0:14:28.120 all right? 0:14:28.160 --> 0:14:29.160 Their bet? What do you got? 0:14:29.240 --> 0:14:31.680 I've got Minnesota minus nine and a half against Detroit, 0:14:31.800 --> 0:14:35.080 And it's more from what I saw from Detroit last 0:14:35.080 --> 0:14:39.280 week against Chicago than me loving Minnesota, because look, they 0:14:39.280 --> 0:14:41.240 only put up seven points against Cleveland and that's not 0:14:41.280 --> 0:14:43.800 gonna inspire a lot of confidence in anyone. But I 0:14:43.840 --> 0:14:47.280 think Detroit, specifically with the injuries Aquir goes down Brockers 0:14:47.360 --> 0:14:51.160 is questionable on that defensive line. That does not lend 0:14:51.280 --> 0:14:54.720 in favor towards Detroit, And I know Detroit's played some 0:14:54.760 --> 0:14:57.960 hard games, right, They played some some teams hard. They're 0:14:58.000 --> 0:15:01.640 in that Niners game at the end, you know, they 0:15:01.680 --> 0:15:04.760 they have looked better than expected, but last week they 0:15:04.760 --> 0:15:06.880 turned into a pumpkin. And I think that's where we're 0:15:06.920 --> 0:15:08.720 heading for the rest of the year for Detroit, right. 0:15:08.840 --> 0:15:11.160 So I think it's gonna be a lot of running 0:15:11.240 --> 0:15:13.480 up the gut with even if Cook's not healthy. We 0:15:13.560 --> 0:15:16.960 saw Madison put up absolutely yards too. I mean it's 0:15:17.000 --> 0:15:19.640 not you know, wash your hands and put in the 0:15:19.640 --> 0:15:22.680 next guy, but he is pretty good, especially in a 0:15:22.720 --> 0:15:26.000 situation where he's going up against a roughed up defense. 0:15:26.240 --> 0:15:30.080 Penney Sewell got smoked last week by Robert Quinn and 0:15:30.200 --> 0:15:33.560 tal Hunter is better than Robert Quinn. So you're either 0:15:33.560 --> 0:15:37.200 gonna have to get real good, real fast, Penney, or 0:15:37.200 --> 0:15:39.480 they're gonna have to chip over there, which is going 0:15:39.560 --> 0:15:42.800 to take their best playmaker and Hockinson out a lot 0:15:42.800 --> 0:15:46.480 of the time too. DeAndre Swift's questionable. I just think 0:15:46.480 --> 0:15:49.000 this is domination by the Vikings this week. 0:15:49.280 --> 0:15:51.760 And don't forget like Hawkinson also has banged up a 0:15:51.800 --> 0:15:52.160 little bit. 0:15:52.200 --> 0:15:54.240 He's been in an a he hasn't been playing great. 0:15:54.360 --> 0:15:55.360 Correct he hasn't been. 0:15:55.400 --> 0:15:57.440 But their offensive line, which was at one point a 0:15:57.520 --> 0:15:59.760 real strength of their team, is also banged up, and 0:15:59.800 --> 0:16:01.720 that kind of pulling them down a little bit. 0:16:02.000 --> 0:16:02.440 I agree with you. 0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:04.920 It's a big number, but I'm okay laying it as well. 0:16:04.960 --> 0:16:07.200 I did pick this one in the app. I haven't 0:16:07.280 --> 0:16:10.280 bet it actually personally because at DraftKings are the only 0:16:10.280 --> 0:16:12.400 book that's hanging out there. Again betting Bros dot Com, 0:16:12.400 --> 0:16:14.320 I can see every book. They're the only book hanging 0:16:14.320 --> 0:16:16.360 out there at ten. Not that you know whatever, but 0:16:16.600 --> 0:16:19.080 every other book basically is that nine and a half. 0:16:19.120 --> 0:16:21.680 That's the contensus line. Ten is not quite as enticing. 0:16:21.720 --> 0:16:22.800 But I agree with you. 0:16:22.920 --> 0:16:25.120 I think the Vikings and they are desperate, right they 0:16:25.240 --> 0:16:26.080 need just windy. 0:16:26.320 --> 0:16:27.280 They're gonna they're gonna be. 0:16:27.240 --> 0:16:29.200 Able to do whatever they want offensively, like they could. 0:16:29.200 --> 0:16:31.760 Obviously we know about the issues with the line. Secondary 0:16:31.760 --> 0:16:33.640 at this point, they I think they're gonna come out 0:16:33.960 --> 0:16:36.520 at home in an absolutely must win game. 0:16:36.680 --> 0:16:37.320 Kudos to the. 0:16:37.240 --> 0:16:39.200 Lines, by the way, like for playing hard. You know 0:16:39.280 --> 0:16:41.320