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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: PODYA, all right, here we go, fifteen cony twenty five,

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Speaker 2: thirty thirty five, toty twenty five fifty, The.

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Speaker 1: Kick as block Look College Football World Stunner, Oh my goodness.

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Speaker 3: Please stumble the football, the.

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Speaker 4: Lateral turn, the counter of the job.

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Speaker 3: Don't you believe?

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Speaker 1: Table up the field tonight. It's not the side by,

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Speaker 1: it's the side of the.

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Speaker 5: Fight in the roll.

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Speaker 1: Welcome into the Big Bets on Campus Podcast presented by

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Speaker 1: Bett MGM. This is the group of five deep dive.

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Speaker 1: We are continuing with preview season loading up Conference USA,

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Speaker 1: the same conference that sent a team to in the

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Speaker 1: year six. Last year. I don't really know. I don't

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Speaker 1: have the box score in front of me. I guess

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Speaker 1: good things happen to Liberty. We'll get into it. Can

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Speaker 1: they do it again? Is there any team to feel

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Speaker 1: good about other than Liberty in this conference? We are

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Speaker 1: going to leave no stone left unturned. We're gonna give

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Speaker 1: you our win totals, our odds to win Conference USA,

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Speaker 1: as well as some long shots to make the College

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Speaker 1: Football Playoff. We're going to get into all of it

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Speaker 1: here in the CUSA. I am joined by Colin Wilson

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Speaker 1: and Mike Ianello to break it all down for you.

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Speaker 1: We're also going to toss in two bonus teams. We

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Speaker 1: got the non Notre Dame Independence, that's UMass, that's Yukon.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna do our best to give them some love

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Speaker 1: as well.

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Speaker 4: Colin, how you doing.

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Speaker 5: I'm doing great. We're in the middle of the podcast season.

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Speaker 5: I love it when I get to come down to

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Speaker 5: the G five level and talk about some of these

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Speaker 5: juco transfers, style changes, coaches we've never heard of, like

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Speaker 5: people that were just playing five years ago. I think

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Speaker 5: we have a defensive coordinator that's twenty nine years old

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Speaker 5: on this podcast. This conference is hilarious. I can't wait.

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Speaker 4: I know how you doing.

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Speaker 6: Hilarious is one word i'd used. Pressing would probably be

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Speaker 6: another one.

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Speaker 3: I'm interested to.

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Speaker 6: I'm excited for this pod because when I was going

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Speaker 6: through my notes, I'll be honest, I have one bet

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Speaker 6: written down, so I'm hoping that you guys will talk

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Speaker 6: me into some I think it's just it's a very difficult, interesting, fun, hilarious, depressing,

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Speaker 6: whatever word you want to use. Conference with there's what

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Speaker 6: seven teams with a win total of four and a half,

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Speaker 6: so you're kind of I usually when I'm picking an over,

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Speaker 6: I want, you know, give me three for sure wins,

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Speaker 6: and then you gotta hope two coin flips go your

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Speaker 6: way to get to five. Every team in this conference

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Speaker 6: has like one sure win one sure loss in like

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Speaker 6: ten coin foot games.

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Speaker 4: I was looking.

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Speaker 6: Seven of the ten teams in this conference are in

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Speaker 6: Colin Wilson's bottom twenty power rating in the country. Seven

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Speaker 6: of these teams are in the bottom twenty of his

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Speaker 6: power ratings.

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Speaker 3: Including the two worst teams in the country.

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Speaker 6: So it is just a lot of hogwash, and we're

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Speaker 6: going to see what comes who.

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Speaker 3: Comes out on top.

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Speaker 1: Two quick notes before we get in to it, Welcome

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Speaker 1: to the party.

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Speaker 4: Kanessas State.

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Speaker 1: They are the one hundred and thirty fourth FBS team.

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Speaker 1: They've only been around since twenty fifteen, so if you're

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Speaker 1: not familiar with the Owls, get ready to meet them.

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Speaker 1: And one other note, I know I said it, you know,

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Speaker 1: tongue in chic Liberty getting blasted forty five to six

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Speaker 1: in the Fiesta Bowl by Oregon.

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Speaker 4: But I'm not going to.

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Speaker 1: Stand here and listen to all the G five slam

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Speaker 1: there from the casuals from people that just cover the

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Speaker 1: Power four and say they don't belong at the table.

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Speaker 1: You know what, if you're going to look at last year,

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Speaker 1: you need to look at the ten years of the

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Speaker 1: fourteen College Football Playoff because the G five champion, the

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Speaker 1: one who got the auto bid, went four and six

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Speaker 1: in those big bowl in those big bowl games. And

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Speaker 1: when you go through at fourteen, twenty fourteen, Boise State

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Speaker 1: twenty fifteen, Houston twenty seventeen, UCF twenty twenty two to

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Speaker 1: two Lane, those teams could all play. And when you

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Speaker 1: look at some of the other losses, there were three

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Speaker 1: one possession losses as well, UCF against LSU, Western Michigan

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Speaker 1: against Wisconsin, and Cincinnati against Georgia. So to me, I

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Speaker 1: understand that there is a big drop off. I'm not

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Speaker 1: asking for multiple G five teams in the playoff, but

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Speaker 1: I think there's a very good chance that's somewhere in

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Speaker 1: G five land we're gonna have a champion that's really

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Speaker 1: good this year and is going to throw a scare

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Speaker 1: into somebody in the first round. Now, before we get

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Speaker 1: into Conference USA and earnest, we do have one special

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Speaker 1: announcement to make. We're going to bring in the Action

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Speaker 1: Networks audio director Matt Mitchell. Matt, let everybody in on

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Speaker 1: the good news.

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Speaker 7: The Big Bets on Campus YouTube channel has officially launched.

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Speaker 7: For seven long years, we've been doing college football episodes

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Speaker 7: here at Action Network with Callum and Stuckey in the

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Speaker 7: whole gang, and for that entire time, our loyal listeners

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Speaker 7: have asked for two things.

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Speaker 1: They want more college football stuff, and they want it

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Speaker 1: released earlier in the week.

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Speaker 4: Well, you know what, We've heard it.

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Speaker 1: So we're going to give you a dedicated BBOC YouTube channel.

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Speaker 1: We're going to meet both of these demands. You guys

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Speaker 1: have won raised the victory flag.

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Speaker 7: Okay, So let me give you an example. So what

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Speaker 7: you subscribe to the new channel, the conference preview episodes

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Speaker 7: episodes just like this. They will come out earlier on

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Speaker 7: the YouTube channel than in the podcast audio version, So

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Speaker 7: if you want them early, that's where you should go.

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Speaker 1: Plus, this YouTube channel is also where we're going to

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Speaker 1: house all of our extra videos, all the bonus coverage,

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Speaker 1: all sorts of fun stuff that we can dream up

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Speaker 1: at BBOC on YouTube.

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Speaker 7: Thank you for listening to the podcast. Please continue to

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Speaker 7: listen and download the show. But growing This new YouTube

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Speaker 7: channel is a top priority for everybody here, so that

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Speaker 7: would be the most meaningful thing you can do right

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Speaker 7: now for the show. Follow the link in this episode description.

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Speaker 7: If that's too complicated, listen, just go to YouTube type

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Speaker 7: in BBOC betting channel and it'll take you right there.

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Speaker 6: Conference USA n.

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Speaker 1: So let's start at the very top of the conference

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Speaker 1: with the defending champion. They ran through the regular season undefeated,

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Speaker 1: one in the rematch against New Mexico State punch their

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Speaker 1: ticket to the Fiesta Bowl. That, of course, is the

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Speaker 1: Liberty Flames, coached up by Jamie Chadwell.

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Speaker 8: I've said to these young people repeatedly, and I say

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Speaker 8: it again, you are the hope of a merit. When

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Speaker 8: you leave the graduation platform of Liberty, I want you

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Speaker 8: to leave it running, leave in running with the vision

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Speaker 8: burning in your soul.

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Speaker 1: Their win total is off the charts ten and a half,

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Speaker 1: so essentially you get one mulligan if you go with

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Speaker 1: the over. Outside of that, you're gonna need them to

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Speaker 1: either have a perfect season or maybe we'll get into it.

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Speaker 1: Maybe there's some potholes on the schedule. It couldn't find

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Speaker 1: too many. Commerce USA title minus one ninety five, the

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Speaker 1: only one that I've seen thus far with negative juice

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Speaker 1: on it that speaks to the bottom half, the bottom

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Speaker 1: three quarters of Conference USA to make the College Football

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Speaker 1: Playoff plus four forty starts with Kayden Salter. He's the

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Speaker 1: perfect trigger man for this offense. He can run, he

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Speaker 1: can pass, he can he can essentially buy time and

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Speaker 1: find people downfield.

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Speaker 4: Chadwell is someone who game plans.

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Speaker 1: At such an elite level that it seems like between

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Speaker 1: him and Salter, they're always making the right choice. They're

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Speaker 1: always getting people in space, getting mismatches. So I love

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Speaker 1: that for them this year. Fully also back at running back.

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Speaker 1: Their receiving corps, I wouldn't say full on decimated, but

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Speaker 1: we got some new faces. Dante Lee comes up from

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Speaker 1: Division two Shaw. He had scholarship offers from some ACC programs.

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Speaker 1: He could be a burner, not just at receiver but

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Speaker 1: also in the return game. And finally, let's look at

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Speaker 1: this defense, because this is where I think the pivot

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Speaker 1: is in this conversation, and I'm going to bring Colin in.

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Speaker 4: First one hundred and first in rushing success.

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Speaker 1: Defense last year, ninety ninth in red zone defense, touchdown

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Speaker 1: in terms of the touchdown rate that they allowed, and

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Speaker 1: they have up sixty two plays of twenty plus yards,

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Speaker 1: which was ninety fourth in the country. So defense that

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Speaker 1: returns five starters secondary breaking in three news starters. Is

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Speaker 1: anyone in Conference USA positioned to take advantage of a

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Speaker 1: potentially leaky defense.

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Speaker 5: No, and that is the bad thing about this podcast.

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Speaker 5: Nobody in this conference is going to have a shot

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Speaker 5: to beat this team. My problem with Liberty is price. Listen,

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Speaker 5: they return everything in the world. Every unit is going

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Speaker 5: to be the number one unit in Conference USA. What

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Speaker 5: they have on offense, you mentioned Cayden Salter already, Quentin

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Speaker 5: Cooley is an absolute wrecking ball at sixteen tds he's back.

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Speaker 5: And then on the defensive side, they have eight players

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Speaker 5: that should win All Team first first All Team Conference USA.

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Speaker 5: Amazing levels from the defensive line back to the secondary.

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Speaker 5: There is so much loaded on this and then you

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Speaker 5: look at their schedule. I mean, double digit favorites in

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Speaker 5: eleven games, coin flip against app State. So what's the

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Speaker 5: conversation we're gonna happen, Becuse might as well get the

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Speaker 5: Liberty thing out of the way before we start dumpster

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Speaker 5: diving searching for the rest of the conferences, who's going

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Speaker 5: to join them in the conference championship. There is absolutely

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Speaker 5: no doubt this team is going to be in the

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Speaker 5: conference championship here. They are too talented to lose two

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Speaker 5: in this conference, and I think the market is you're

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Speaker 5: just gonna have to search and find good value because

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Speaker 5: the over ten and a half minus one twenty five

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Speaker 5: has minimal value this at eleven wins, So when you

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Speaker 5: get extra juice on a ten and a half, then

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Speaker 5: you're actually paying for that. Although I can't find a

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Speaker 5: second loss if they were to lose to app State here,

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Speaker 5: so you look at other factors. Can they make the

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Speaker 5: College Football Playoff at plus four to forty after getting

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Speaker 5: waxed by organ Don't think for a second the committee

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Speaker 5: is not going to look at Liberty and maybe pass

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Speaker 5: them over because of how bad of a quality football

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Speaker 5: game and Fiesta Bowl officials were not real happy with

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Speaker 5: that either. So do they get passed over, especially if

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Speaker 5: they lose to app State? Now, if they finish undefeated,

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Speaker 5: I still think they could get passed over. Maybe not

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Speaker 5: so the best bet for me. By the way, they're

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Speaker 5: fifty percent to win this conference. They should not have

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Speaker 5: a number out there over minus one ten, so one

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Speaker 5: sixty five all these other numbers. You just you can't

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Speaker 5: buy it. I mean you can buy it if you want.

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Speaker 5: You want to lock that up ball season, that's fine.

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Speaker 5: Horrible investment, horrible return of investment, horrible way to lock

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Speaker 5: your money up. Just go put it in gold or

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Speaker 5: some shit for three months. I mean, it's it's one

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Speaker 5: of the worst numbers out there. But they know that

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Speaker 5: everybody wants to bet this Liberty team. So what do

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Speaker 5: you do if you don't think that they can make

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Speaker 5: a playoff with an under feed record? And there's only

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Speaker 5: a couple of shops that have undefeated out there, and

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Speaker 5: they don't usually list Liberty because they got whacked last year.

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Speaker 5: But I think what you want to do is say

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Speaker 5: that app State game is a huge hurdle for both

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Speaker 5: teams to make it to the College Football Playoff. To me,

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Speaker 5: it is a play in game from two teams. It

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Speaker 5: should win both of their conferences to get in. So

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Speaker 5: how do I play this? Because they're both so big?

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Speaker 5: I like a half unit on Liberty at plus four

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Speaker 5: to forty. I like a half unit on app State

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Speaker 5: ten to one, and then essentially, you know one of

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Speaker 5: those is going to cancel out. But you're playing with

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Speaker 5: a plus two twenty and you're playing with a five

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Speaker 5: to one. When you get done with that and you

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Speaker 5: have two of maybe four teams, I think that can

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Speaker 5: even make it to the playoff with Boise State out there,

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Speaker 5: maybe another Sun Belt with Texas State, or maybe our

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Speaker 5: love for the Mountain West, although I doubt it with

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Speaker 5: the seven game conference and the strength of schedule. But

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Speaker 5: the last thing I'll say about Liberty strength to schedule

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Speaker 5: one hundred and thirty fourth, the talent they have versus

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Speaker 5: what they're playing is pathetic. App State is a play

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Speaker 5: in game to the college fotball Playoff. Take a half

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Speaker 5: unit on both.

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Speaker 1: All right, Ianello, I'm going to tee you up in

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Speaker 1: this way. I talked about their issues defensively, giving up

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Speaker 1: big plays, not being able to stop anybody in the

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Speaker 1: red zone. But they do bring back TJ. Bush and CJ.

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Speaker 1: Bazil as their pass rushers. Is that going to be

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Speaker 1: enough for them to get a little bit better on

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Speaker 1: that side of the ball or are you sticking with

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Speaker 1: Colin which is also my opinion, It doesn't matter in conference.

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Speaker 1: You us say there's no offense that I think can

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Speaker 1: put together sixty minutes of explosive football to beat this

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Speaker 1: team in a shootout?

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Speaker 4: Do you agree with that?

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Speaker 5: Yeah?

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Speaker 6: And I don't think that'll help them because I think

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Speaker 6: the biggest issue they had last year was their secondary,

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Speaker 6: and that was their biggest weakness. They couldn't stop the pass,

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Speaker 6: They gave up too many big plays, and they lose

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Speaker 6: both their corner their starting corners to Colorado and Oregon State.

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Speaker 6: So like the offense, the line wasn't that big of

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Speaker 6: an issue to me. I thought their issue was more

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Speaker 6: their secondary, and that, to me, is still a major

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Speaker 6: question mark. The issue is just there's not an offense

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Speaker 6: on their schedule that can take advantage of it until

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Speaker 6: app State. So I think, like Colin said, there's I mean,

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Speaker 6: I hate Liberty, so I'm not playing any overs anyway,

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Speaker 6: but there's just no value in the numbers.

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Speaker 3: And I'm kind of taking a.

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Speaker 6: Similar approach to Colin a little differently where I'm it's

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Speaker 6: kind of going, I think the best way to approach

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Speaker 6: it is just like this season, just anybody but Liberty,

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Speaker 6: and you just set yourself up to root against them.

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Speaker 6: So I'm doing it kind of similarly where I'm investing

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Speaker 6: in Boise State to make the playoff and Memphis to

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Speaker 6: make the playoff, and if Liberty loses that those two

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Speaker 6: teams are you know, if you want to swap out

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Speaker 6: Calm doesn't like Boise as much.

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Speaker 3: If you want to do.

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Speaker 6: App State in Memphis or app State in Tulane, pick

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Speaker 6: two teams from the Sun Belt, American and Mound West

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Speaker 6: and you listen to all of our podcasts will all

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Speaker 6: kind of give you different ones. I know Stocky like JMU.

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Speaker 3: I don't know.

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Speaker 6: I like them to make the playoff, but I certain

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Speaker 6: like them to win the Sun Belt. So I would

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Speaker 6: say my best advice is pick two teams from those

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Speaker 6: three other conferences and then root against Liberty all year.

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Speaker 6: You need app State to beat them and you and

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Speaker 6: I think if they do, they're going to get jumped

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Speaker 6: anyway based on last year. And I think it's just

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Speaker 6: fun to just oh, if a cus the team upsets

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Speaker 6: Liberty at some point in the year, you're sitting pretty

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Speaker 6: with two futures on other teams.

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Speaker 1: It's also nice if you have no action on the Flames,

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Speaker 1: you can just enjoy a Jamie Chadwell offense.

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Speaker 4: You don't have to have all this angst that.

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Speaker 1: It's not fair that they're you know, they have this

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Speaker 1: downy soft schedule and that you know, essentially they could

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Speaker 1: run the table and hop over a team that's more deserving,

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Speaker 1: which I.

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Speaker 4: Agree with Colin. I don't think that's going to happen.

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Speaker 1: I think a one loss team is going to hop

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Speaker 1: them because the committee, it's delivering a TV everything's about TV.

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Speaker 1: It's about putting a television show into the time slot

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Speaker 1: in the end of December, and they don't want to

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Speaker 1: see the flames. So unless something crazy happens and we

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Speaker 1: have multiple two loss champions in the G five competing

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Speaker 1: with them, I don't think you're going to see the

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Speaker 1: flames in that twelve team college football playoff. We turn

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Speaker 1: to the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky eight and five last year,

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Speaker 1: five and three in conference Tyson heldon.

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Speaker 4: Now entering year.

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Speaker 2: Six, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers the pride of the Commonwealth.

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Speaker 5: No oh no, hell no.

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Speaker 2: Done.

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Speaker 5: Oh no, hell no.

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Speaker 1: It ended with a crazy Bowl comeback to beat Old Dominion.

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Speaker 1: They were down twenty eight to nothing in that game,

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Speaker 1: their win totals sitting at seven and a half. Their

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Speaker 1: odds to win the Conference USA title nine to two

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Speaker 1: odds to make the College ball playoff field fifty to one.

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Speaker 4: Let's start with the quarterback, is it. TJ.

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Speaker 1: Finley is a Caden veldtcamp who is the hero of

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Speaker 1: that second half comeback for the Toppers.

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Speaker 4: Either way, they're gonna be playing for a new.

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Speaker 1: Play caller in Will Friends, and it's gonna be interesting

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Speaker 1: because if you look at friends track record as a

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Speaker 1: play caller, far more balanced, a lot closer to a

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Speaker 1: fifty five to forty five kind of split, where last

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Speaker 1: year for the Hilltoppers sixty three percent pass rate.

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Speaker 4: So that could make a pretty big.

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Speaker 1: Difference in terms of game flow, in terms of how

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Speaker 1: often they're leaving their defense on the field for lots

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Speaker 1: of snaps, which obviously didn't work for them in some

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Speaker 1: high scoring losses. It also could mean a big year

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Speaker 1: for Elijah Young at running back. With the line made

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Speaker 1: up of all juniors and seniors. They get lucky on

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Speaker 1: defense that upton Stout removed his name from the portal.

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Speaker 1: That was critical because they were okay against the pass

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Speaker 1: last year and he's their top cover corner just twenty

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Speaker 1: four sacks though on the entire season that's eighty eighth

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Speaker 1: on a per game basis, but the bottom could drop

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Speaker 1: out for them because they were booed by twenty six

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Speaker 1: forced turnovers. And this is important stat to look year

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Speaker 1: over year. If you put any stock in the Phil

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Speaker 1: Steel magazines, he would always focus on this. When you

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Speaker 1: get a lot of fumble luck, usually that doesn't hold off.

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Speaker 1: You know, it doesn't carry over for multiple years, multiple games.

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Speaker 1: So eleven of those turnovers were recovered fumbles. That was

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Speaker 1: seventh nationally for a defense. They gave up a ton

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Speaker 1: of yards. They traveled to Alabama, Boston College, Liberty, and

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Speaker 1: they host Toledo. But the rest of the schedule is

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Speaker 1: really manageable until the finale against Jacksonville State. I'm going

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Speaker 1: to go under here. I think that they're going to

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Speaker 1: have a regression defensively. I think offensively, losing Malachi Corley

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Speaker 1: is a major deal. Davin Smith is a nice wide receiver,

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Speaker 1: He's no Coarley, so I think the offense takes a

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Speaker 1: baby step back. I think the defense can be exposed

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Speaker 1: if they don't get lucky in terms of turnovers. I

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Speaker 1: know I'll bring it you in here on Hilltoppers, a

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Speaker 1: team that you picked to win comrace twussa last year.

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Speaker 1: What are your thoughts here in twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, it's just it's hard after they were my pick

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Speaker 6: and again we're gonna I'm gonna try not to do

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Speaker 6: this with every team, but you just have to kind

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Speaker 6: of do the How do they measure up to Western

365
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Speaker 6: Kentucky and I agree through it or to Liberty. I

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Speaker 6: think they take a step back, and you saw Liberty.

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Speaker 3: Drum them last year. It wasn't even close.

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Speaker 6: This defense, I agree with you up getting up in

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Speaker 6: stout back was massive, but the run defense was their

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Speaker 6: biggest issue last year, and I don't see where they

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Speaker 6: addressed that. I think the run defense is gonna be

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Speaker 6: a problem this year. I'm not as worried about the

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Speaker 6: offense as you at this point. I kind of just

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Speaker 6: blindly trust hell and in this offense, whether it's Finley or

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Speaker 6: Velt Camp. And then you know they lose Cory, but

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Speaker 6: Western Kentucky always has wide receiver death. You know, they

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Speaker 6: lost Jared Stearns and didn't miss the beat. So the

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Speaker 6: defensive line loses three starters. But getting Quantavious leslie Back

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Speaker 6: is big.

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Speaker 3: To kind of slidify that.

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Speaker 6: I'm not super worried about the old line. I will

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Speaker 6: say the one thing, I think Western Kentucky has more

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Speaker 6: more talent than anybody in the conference other than Liberty,

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Speaker 6: So I think they're set up nicely in that regard.

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Speaker 6: The one thing I like about them, whether it's whether

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Speaker 6: you honestly want to take the under or the over,

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Speaker 6: I don't really have a feeling either way, is I

388
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Speaker 6: think this is not one of those situations where you

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Speaker 6: have to tie up your money till December, because I

390
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Speaker 6: think Toledo kind of will dictate this win total. I

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Speaker 6: think a win at home Verusledo will go a long

392
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Speaker 6: way because they're going to lose Tobama, probably Boston College

393
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Speaker 6: and Liberty, and if they lose to Toledo, this wind

394
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Speaker 6: total basically just comes down to do they get upset

395
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Speaker 6: at all in conference play, because if they don't win

396
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Speaker 6: a Toledo, they should go over this total. If they

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Speaker 6: lose to Toledo, then you just got to hope. You know,

398
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Speaker 6: they just need to lose once and you're staying under

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Speaker 6: this total. So I think you'll kind of have a

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Speaker 6: good sense early on. I don't have a strong feeling.

401
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Speaker 6: I think I definitely think they're the second best team,

402
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Speaker 6: but I don't think they're They're close to Liberty yet.

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Speaker 1: It's been a constant coaching carousel at offensive coordinator for

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Speaker 1: Western and to Ianello's point, it hasn't really mattered in

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Speaker 1: recent years. It's just you know, kept on rolling from

406
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Speaker 1: the Zappi days into Read and now we have delt

407
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Speaker 1: Camp is coming off a huge bowl game. Are you

408
00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:12,800
Speaker 1: worried at all about that in this fall, Colin, or

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Speaker 1: do you think it's just going to be more of

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Speaker 1: the same from the tops.

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Speaker 5: I think it's more of the same from the tops,

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Speaker 5: excepted for offensive philosophy. And you've already mentioned it. With

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Speaker 5: Will Friend coming in, we expect more of a balance

414
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Speaker 5: in this offense to come down from that heavy sixty

415
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Speaker 5: percent pass rate, and that kind of matches the personnel

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Speaker 5: that they have. I mean, they are better running the

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Speaker 5: ball now with their personnel and the talent that they

418
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Speaker 5: have than they have on the outside. Because when you

419
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Speaker 5: look at Dalvin Smith with his seventy one targets coming back,

420
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Speaker 5: just didn't have the juice that Michael Corley had. Dalvin

421
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Speaker 5: Smith was about one point six yards per route run,

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Speaker 5: not explosive at all and actually nobody else that's returning

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Speaker 5: is So when you don't have the juice to get

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Speaker 5: it downfield, you lose passers that are excellent over twenty yards.

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Speaker 5: You know TJ. Finley, he improved a lot last year

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Speaker 5: at Texas State, twenty four to eight, e at it

427
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Speaker 5: int ratio seventeen to thirteen, big time throw to turn

428
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Speaker 5: over worthy play rate, which there's a huge jump from

429
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Speaker 5: where he was at Auburn had about a nine percent

430
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Speaker 5: turn over worthy play rate and he shaved that down

431
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Speaker 5: to two point seven. But he still has to learn

432
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Speaker 5: how to not make mistakes in a crowded pocket. That

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Speaker 5: is still happening for TJ. Finley. So the good news

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Speaker 5: is of the offensive line one of the higher ranked

435
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Speaker 5: in this conference. They're going to run a lot more.

436
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Speaker 5: I think they're going to have success here. The defense

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Speaker 5: I have zero answers for. But Upton Stout coming back

438
00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:27,600
Speaker 5: does shoot this secondary up to be this projected is

439
00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:29,840
Speaker 5: the second best in the conference. That's at least going

440
00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:32,240
Speaker 5: to eliminate teams. They're going to try to heavy attack

441
00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:34,120
Speaker 5: them in the back end. But you're right, you look

442
00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:36,040
Speaker 5: at these numbers. Last year, they were forty third in

443
00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:39,760
Speaker 5: coverage grading they were seventy seventh and allowing pass explosives,

444
00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:41,959
Speaker 5: so those will improve. But that wasn't the worst part

445
00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:43,560
Speaker 5: of the defense. Worst part of the defense was the

446
00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:46,359
Speaker 5: run defense. The number is what has me on the

447
00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:48,879
Speaker 5: over here, the over I'm talking about. I see it

448
00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:51,160
Speaker 5: at seven minus one fifty. I see at ju stuff.

449
00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:54,240
Speaker 5: I make this number seven point eight. So then you

450
00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:55,920
Speaker 5: go down the schedule and you say, okay, well where

451
00:19:55,920 --> 00:20:00,480
Speaker 5: are my wins at I have TD plus favorites set

452
00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:04,440
Speaker 5: aside for Western Kentucky against Eastern Kentucky, Middle Tennessee who

453
00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:06,880
Speaker 5: has no trench on either side of the ball, utep

454
00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:11,360
Speaker 5: completely brand new everywhere, Kennesaw State, you know, not real

455
00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:13,640
Speaker 5: good in the trench, not big enough, New Mexico State,

456
00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:16,240
Speaker 5: and La Tete. I have six games where they're favored

457
00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:18,480
Speaker 5: by at least seven points. So to get to this

458
00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:20,879
Speaker 5: seven and at least push this bet, one of my

459
00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:23,920
Speaker 5: short favorite spots against Toledo, Sam Houston or Jacksonville State

460
00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:25,679
Speaker 5: is going to have to happen because you have no

461
00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:27,840
Speaker 5: shot to win Alabama and Liberty. So you have three

462
00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:30,199
Speaker 5: coin flips. You need to need one of them to

463
00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:32,920
Speaker 5: push this number. So I'm in as the best bet

464
00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:35,359
Speaker 5: in Western Kentucky over seven at minus one p fifty.

465
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:37,560
Speaker 5: I don't see any I mean, the percentage for them

466
00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:39,280
Speaker 5: to get six wins and that's it on this schedule

467
00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:43,280
Speaker 5: is around like nine percent, so seven is more like

468
00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:46,000
Speaker 5: a forty two percenter. So I'm definitely taking the over here.

469
00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:49,480
Speaker 1: We move on to a team that I'm actually pretty

470
00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:51,399
Speaker 1: bullish on. I'm gonna go over on the win total.

471
00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:52,880
Speaker 1: I think they get to the Conference two a say

472
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,720
Speaker 1: title game, and that's Jacksonville State, the game Cocks coming

473
00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:58,000
Speaker 1: off a nine and four season, six and two in

474
00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:01,680
Speaker 1: the CUSA in Rich Rod's second year. Now moving on,

475
00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:04,159
Speaker 1: they're sixty to one to make the twelve team playoff.

476
00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:06,480
Speaker 1: I'm not interested in getting that crazy. But let's talk

477
00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:08,399
Speaker 1: about what they bring back. Lots of experience on the

478
00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:11,679
Speaker 1: line that finished twenty second in run blocking last season.

479
00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:15,000
Speaker 1: But will it be Zion Turner or my pick. Urman's

480
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:16,399
Speaker 1: Tyler Huff running the show.

481
00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:17,680
Speaker 4: He's a My Guy nominee.

482
00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:19,040
Speaker 1: Let me tell you a little bit about him coming

483
00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:22,320
Speaker 1: from FCS. Furman, He's a hard nosed runner. He got

484
00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:23,880
Speaker 1: better as a passer throughout his time.

485
00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:24,800
Speaker 4: He's also a.

486
00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:28,840
Speaker 1: Commissioned second lieutenant in the US Army Reserve. Rich Rod

487
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:32,359
Speaker 1: recruited him on Fort Wuchuka in Arizona, not to be

488
00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:35,520
Speaker 1: confused with Fort Haktua. He had offers from NC State

489
00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,800
Speaker 1: and Arkansas State. I think if he's the guy who

490
00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:41,520
Speaker 1: ends up running this offense, this could be an even

491
00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:43,480
Speaker 1: better version than they were last year because they bring

492
00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:45,960
Speaker 1: back Ann war Lewis at running back and a dynamic

493
00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:49,440
Speaker 1: transfer from the lower level at North Alabama. This offense

494
00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:52,040
Speaker 1: will work, and I think it'll really work if it's tough.

495
00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:53,600
Speaker 1: But you got to keep an eye on this quarterback

496
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:57,399
Speaker 1: battle in fall camp. Defensively, Jay rock Swain returns, but

497
00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:01,440
Speaker 1: just three starters return with him. It was seventeen thirteen

498
00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:04,120
Speaker 1: late in the third quarter against Liberty last season before

499
00:22:04,119 --> 00:22:06,679
Speaker 1: the bottom fell out in the fourth quarter. Salter in

500
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:09,200
Speaker 1: that game accounted for just two hundred and eight total yards,

501
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:12,520
Speaker 1: his second lowest total of the season. You don't necessarily

502
00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:14,560
Speaker 1: need to beat him in the regular season, but obviously

503
00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:16,720
Speaker 1: to win the conference title at plus seven to fifty,

504
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:18,680
Speaker 1: you gotta beat him there. I think they're going to

505
00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:21,320
Speaker 1: have a puncher's chance the best, at least in this conference.

506
00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:24,000
Speaker 1: Liberty is going to be a big favorite to deservedly so.

507
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:26,560
Speaker 1: But I need to talk myself into somebody, and JSU

508
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 1: is the team for me. The schedule gives them time

509
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,320
Speaker 1: to work in a new quarterback, whether it's Turner, whether

510
00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:34,040
Speaker 1: it's Tough, whether it's Smothers, whoever they end up going with,

511
00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:36,360
Speaker 1: and if they can figure it out. On defense, Luke

512
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 1: Olsen as a play caller, I want to see what

513
00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:42,159
Speaker 1: this defense looks like this fall. They get Liberty on

514
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 1: October thirtieth, they close out on the road at Western

515
00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:48,000
Speaker 1: Kentucky on November thirtieth. Outside of a road game to Louisville,

516
00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:50,439
Speaker 1: every other game is within the realm of possibility for

517
00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:52,399
Speaker 1: them to win, So I'm over on the win total.

518
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:53,120
Speaker 4: I like them.

519
00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:55,040
Speaker 1: I'd love to see him market for just getting to

520
00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:57,040
Speaker 1: the Conference USA title game, but I canna take a

521
00:22:57,080 --> 00:22:59,800
Speaker 1: shot Flyer at plus seven to fifty. Colin, I'll go

522
00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:01,840
Speaker 1: to you you first, What do you think about rich

523
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:04,680
Speaker 1: Rod keeping the magic going here after a breakout season

524
00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 1: where they won nine games moving up to conference You say, well.

525
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:10,600
Speaker 5: I love that their offensive line returns a ton of pieces.

526
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:12,600
Speaker 5: For this heavy rush offense, they should be about the

527
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:15,480
Speaker 5: third best in the conference. Amar Lewis maybe the shiftiest

528
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 5: back in this conference three and a half yards after contact,

529
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:20,359
Speaker 5: twenty nine missed tackles, but he only had ninety four

530
00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 5: rushes last season, so he can really juke anybody out

531
00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:26,480
Speaker 5: of their shoes. The Zion Turner over Zion Web, I

532
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:29,200
Speaker 5: think we're gonna get about the same production. We'll see

533
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:31,439
Speaker 5: who wins that quarterback position, like you said, and the

534
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:34,200
Speaker 5: tight end. Sean Brown is an absolute animal on this offense.

535
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:36,440
Speaker 5: I think defense is where you have to I don't

536
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 5: think there's any drop off with the offense whatsoever. They

537
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 5: could be a little bit better in terms of running

538
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:42,359
Speaker 5: the ball, but I think the defense is where you

539
00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:45,280
Speaker 5: need to focus because there's a scheme change. Luke Olsen

540
00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:48,440
Speaker 5: is coming in. He's been on the Tulsa staff for

541
00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:50,760
Speaker 5: a year. He was with TCU analyst last year. But

542
00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:52,440
Speaker 5: what you need to know is that he belongs to

543
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:56,080
Speaker 5: Joe Gillespie, the recently fired defensive coordinator of TCU. He

544
00:23:56,200 --> 00:23:58,119
Speaker 5: was formerly a Tulsa and Luke Olsen falls from that,

545
00:23:58,119 --> 00:23:59,879
Speaker 5: which means we're getting the three three to five pen

546
00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:02,520
Speaker 5: We're going to try to blitz everything in between the tackles.

547
00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 5: We're going to be a little bit aggressive, and it's

548
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:07,040
Speaker 5: going to be a very light front for this defense.

549
00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:10,240
Speaker 5: Now saying that they have one of the best linebacker

550
00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:12,760
Speaker 5: and defensive line combinations in the conference, and they're going

551
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:14,680
Speaker 5: to have to be ready here because that the way

552
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:17,399
Speaker 5: that Joe Glespie plays. He's got six in the box

553
00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 5: and he's going to try to do it like one

554
00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:21,400
Speaker 5: on one with everybody in there. So if anybody lines

555
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:23,760
Speaker 5: up with heavy rush tendencies, that's going to be a

556
00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:27,760
Speaker 5: problem for Jacksonville State. Here the number for me, i'd

557
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:30,199
Speaker 5: make them about seven point five percent to win the conference.

558
00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:32,280
Speaker 5: So Jacksonville State from me, I would need about twelve

559
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:34,119
Speaker 5: to one to go ahead and purchase them. But this

560
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:35,760
Speaker 5: is the territory we're about to get into with all

561
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:37,920
Speaker 5: these teams that are remaining on this podcast, Like you're

562
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:39,720
Speaker 5: going to have to find a little something and have

563
00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:42,399
Speaker 5: a leap of faith because the numbers, I mean, they

564
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:44,600
Speaker 5: do get worse the farther you go down the list

565
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:46,120
Speaker 5: on the board. But right now I would need twelve

566
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:48,359
Speaker 5: to one. The bet that I had on these guys

567
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:50,959
Speaker 5: was under eight. It's not that I don't like them,

568
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 5: and it's not that I don't think that they can't

569
00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:56,360
Speaker 5: achieve or go over that mark. But look at this schedule.

570
00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 5: They're going to be a TD plus underdog to Louisville

571
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:03,880
Speaker 5: Liberty in Western Kentucky. Let's just say they don't win

572
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 5: those games. You have to win eight of nine to

573
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:10,880
Speaker 5: get over you. After that, you have nine games remaining.

574
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:12,800
Speaker 5: You have to win eight of them to be a push.

575
00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:14,399
Speaker 5: You can only lose one. You gotta win all of

576
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:17,239
Speaker 5: them to get over eight. So under eight minus one

577
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:20,239
Speaker 5: twenty five, I mean, there's I mean everything else. You're right,

578
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:21,920
Speaker 5: there's a lot of coin flips on here. You're gonna

579
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 5: be a TD plus fave against Eastern Michigan Kennesaw. You

580
00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:27,320
Speaker 5: have short rest going to New Mexico State that could

581
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:29,800
Speaker 5: be tough with their run game, Middle Tennessee, La Tech

582
00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:32,399
Speaker 5: and FIU, and then you're a short favor against Coastal

583
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:35,439
Speaker 5: Sam Houston and Southern Myss. So the schedule says that

584
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 5: you could get to nine wins, but you have no

585
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:39,439
Speaker 5: wiggle room whatsoever. You cannot have a bad day. And

586
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:41,360
Speaker 5: don't forget this is the conference. It likes to play

587
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 5: on Tuesdays and Wednesdays in the month of October. That's

588
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:46,320
Speaker 5: really bad, you know, in a couple of spots. Jacksonville

589
00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:48,720
Speaker 5: State has what five days rest before New Mexico State

590
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 5: comes to town on October ninth. Out of this win

591
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:53,160
Speaker 5: total at eight is a little beefy for me because

592
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 5: nine is their ceiling.

593
00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:58,879
Speaker 6: Yeah, I agree, I'm with Colin ra I'm not buying

594
00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:01,040
Speaker 6: the under, but I'd probably there just because I also

595
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:03,320
Speaker 6: think there's just a sense that I think they just

596
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:05,000
Speaker 6: caught a lot of teams off guard last year. I

597
00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:06,800
Speaker 6: think no one expected them to be good. I think

598
00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:09,119
Speaker 6: they were they picked last in the conference, they were

599
00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:11,800
Speaker 6: they were kind of expected to do what Sam Houston did,

600
00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:13,000
Speaker 6: and I think they.

601
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:14,200
Speaker 3: Just kind of caught teams off guard.

602
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:15,879
Speaker 6: You know, they Rich Rod had them third in the

603
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:17,920
Speaker 6: country and rushing, and I don't think that'll drop off

604
00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:20,520
Speaker 6: much because the way they did it with Malie Jackson,

605
00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 6: Ron Wiggins and ar Lewis, they kind of gave everyone

606
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:25,359
Speaker 6: the ball fifty yards per game of all three of them. Now,

607
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:28,240
Speaker 6: Lewis is the main back. Georgia transfer Andrew Paul will

608
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 6: be running with him as well. You mentioned the quarterback,

609
00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:33,280
Speaker 6: whether it's Zion Turner coming over from Yukon. He's another

610
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:36,120
Speaker 6: mobile guy, so he's basically just the same person.

611
00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:36,520
Speaker 5: As Zion Web.

612
00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:39,200
Speaker 3: People might just think Web got married and changed his name.

613
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:41,440
Speaker 3: But I think the defense is where you could see

614
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:41,960
Speaker 3: you drop off.

615
00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:45,080
Speaker 6: You know, they lose Zach allied Oklahoma, they lose their thuds,

616
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:47,560
Speaker 6: Chris Hardy and Jeremiah Harris. You mentioned Swing coming back

617
00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 6: is obviously big, but the defense was dominant last year,

618
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:53,000
Speaker 6: and I don't expect them to be as dominant, just

619
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:55,280
Speaker 6: especially early on the year when they're adjusted to a

620
00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:57,560
Speaker 6: new scheme. I'm a high on Coastal, but that's a

621
00:26:57,600 --> 00:26:58,960
Speaker 6: tough game to start the year when you don't know

622
00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 6: who your quarterback is and you're breaking in a new defense,

623
00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:05,119
Speaker 6: so schedule's tough. I just think I think they slip up.

624
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:06,800
Speaker 6: So I'm with you guys where I think they're on

625
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 6: with Colin where I see three losses and the hogwash

626
00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:14,440
Speaker 6: in the middle. I think someone trips them up. So

627
00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:16,200
Speaker 6: I'd lean under, but not enough to play it.

628
00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:20,400
Speaker 9: This podcast is presented by bet MGM. Used bonus code

629
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:22,640
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630
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631
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632
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634
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635
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 4: Middle Tennessee.

636
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:48,159
Speaker 1: The Blue Raiders with a new head coach, Derek Mason,

637
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:50,520
Speaker 1: come on down after a year away from coaching.

638
00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:51,760
Speaker 4: He enters year one.

639
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:54,520
Speaker 1: They're off a four and eight season, three and five

640
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:57,679
Speaker 1: stock still that whole era is finally over. Their win

641
00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:00,320
Speaker 1: total set at four and a half. When Conference USA

642
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 1: title twenty five to one, three hundred to one. You

643
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:05,840
Speaker 1: can also find a lot of these middle class to

644
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:08,600
Speaker 1: lower class Conference USA teams anywhere all the way up

645
00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:11,160
Speaker 1: to one thousand to one. Sportsbooks do us a favor.

646
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 1: Just throw like a ten thousand to one later in

647
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:15,200
Speaker 1: this pod for at kind of saw the fact that

648
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:18,080
Speaker 1: they're also three hundred or five hundred to one is ridiculous,

649
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:19,400
Speaker 1: but I won't belabor.

650
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 5: The point there.

651
00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:23,280
Speaker 1: Derek Mason won sum at Vanderbilt. I think because of

652
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 1: the way it ended, people like to pile on him,

653
00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:27,960
Speaker 1: but that's more than you can say about many Vandy coaches.

654
00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:29,879
Speaker 1: He won five or more games three times in his

655
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 1: final five years in Nashville, So I'm gonna try to

656
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 1: put a positive spin on that. I think he's walking

657
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:38,520
Speaker 1: into a pretty decent offensive position here, if the offensive

658
00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:41,280
Speaker 1: line all the new faces work out. Nick Vadiado is

659
00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:44,000
Speaker 1: a solidual threat quarterback with a lot of experience. Holden

660
00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 1: Willis is a great G five tight ends. Receivers in

661
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 1: both starting tackles got plundered in the portal.

662
00:28:49,520 --> 00:28:50,479
Speaker 4: That's the main issue here.

663
00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:53,080
Speaker 1: Amari Kelly from Auburn needs to really step up at

664
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:56,200
Speaker 1: wide receiver and be a difference maker from day one. Defensively,

665
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:59,680
Speaker 1: it's a reboot after starters left for Vatak, Tennessee, Miami,

666
00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 1: and and Memphis. That just is the way it goes

667
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:06,360
Speaker 1: sometimes in G five lands. He ends up throwing your

668
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:09,120
Speaker 1: best pieces up to the power. For I think this

669
00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 1: defense is going to get bombed early by Old Miss Western,

670
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 1: Kentucky and Memphis. This is an overteam for me. I'm

671
00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 1: not interested in the win total. I'm not interested in

672
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:18,760
Speaker 1: any of the futures. I think a lot of these

673
00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 1: games are going.

674
00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:20,200
Speaker 4: To be very high scoring.

675
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:22,280
Speaker 1: They also have a really good senior specialists, which I

676
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:24,360
Speaker 1: think could help in close games. I don't know if

677
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:26,080
Speaker 1: that's going to equate to them getting to five or

678
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 1: six wins this year, but I do think there's going

679
00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:30,239
Speaker 1: to be a lot of high scoring shootouts, which, at

680
00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 1: the very least, if you're going to have some bad football,

681
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:35,000
Speaker 1: let it be high scoring bad football. I knowl What

682
00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:36,840
Speaker 1: do you think about the Blue Raiders now that Stuck

683
00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 1: still is into retirement.

684
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:40,040
Speaker 6: Yeah, I kind of agree with a lot of the

685
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,040
Speaker 6: stuff you said. I think Derek Mason gets a better

686
00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 6: app I think he's a fan. He's so hard to

687
00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:45,480
Speaker 6: win at and I think he did a decent job.

688
00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 6: He took him to what two three Bowl games, so

689
00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:51,760
Speaker 6: I'm pretty not bullish, but I like the higher You

690
00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 6: mentioned Bodiado coming back after your three thousand yard twenty

691
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:58,040
Speaker 6: three touchdown season, Holden Willis switching over to tight end.

692
00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:00,240
Speaker 3: You know that you mentioned Omari Kelly from Auburn.

693
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 6: They also bring in Gamari and Carter from Vanderbilt as

694
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:05,800
Speaker 6: another receiver weapon there. They lost both their starting tackles

695
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:07,800
Speaker 6: to the portal. What they do bring back both running

696
00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:11,840
Speaker 6: backs Frank Peasant and Jaden Kreedle. They were weird backs peasant,

697
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:12,880
Speaker 6: especially where.

698
00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:15,120
Speaker 3: He like flashed talent.

699
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:17,760
Speaker 6: I think he's talented, but just like also wasn't effective

700
00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:20,320
Speaker 6: at all running the ball. So I'm kind of I'm

701
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:22,160
Speaker 6: they're gonna need to see more from those two, and

702
00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:23,920
Speaker 6: I think they can do it, but you got to

703
00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 6: see it. The change this offensive line likely won't help.

704
00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:28,560
Speaker 6: You mentioned all the guys the defense lost in the portal.

705
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:31,920
Speaker 6: Linebacker Parker Hughes and corner Tyro Raby are the only

706
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:35,120
Speaker 6: returning starters on the defense. But Derek Mason's known for

707
00:30:35,160 --> 00:30:37,360
Speaker 6: a good defensive coach. He's that's kind of his bread

708
00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:40,479
Speaker 6: and butter, so I do think he'll help them improve

709
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 6: throughout the season. And that's kind of my take on

710
00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:48,440
Speaker 6: Middle Tennessee is make a note to yourself that they

711
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:51,400
Speaker 6: are going to be a buy on team for me

712
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 6: in the second half as Mason gets to bring the

713
00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:57,320
Speaker 6: defense up to speed. You mentioned the start of the schedule,

714
00:30:57,400 --> 00:30:59,000
Speaker 6: they're probably going to start one and four.

715
00:30:59,120 --> 00:30:59,480
Speaker 3: They'll win.

716
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 6: You know, E's hum they beat Tennessee Tech, and then

717
00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:05,520
Speaker 6: it's Ole Miss, Western Kentucky, Duke, Memphis, and then they

718
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 6: go at law Tech and that's where I'll probably be

719
00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 6: looking to hammer Middle Tennessee.

720
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:10,480
Speaker 3: I think you're gonna get a lot of value in

721
00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:12,360
Speaker 3: that game one and four.

722
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 6: I think when you look at the back half of

723
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:16,680
Speaker 6: the year, I agree with you on the overs, but

724
00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:20,960
Speaker 6: I'm going to start betting on Middle Tennessee after that

725
00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:24,120
Speaker 6: kind of first five game stretch. As we head towards October,

726
00:31:24,200 --> 00:31:25,600
Speaker 6: I'll be looking at back Blue Raiders.

727
00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:29,280
Speaker 1: Is this a year zero in Murphy's burrow or should

728
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:31,320
Speaker 1: we tell the locals to at least, you know, make

729
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:32,880
Speaker 1: their way to the stadium watch a game or two

730
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:34,400
Speaker 1: from this Mason lead coach.

731
00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 5: I completely agree with Ianello that the spot that you're

732
00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:39,400
Speaker 5: going to start playing them is after the bye week

733
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:41,680
Speaker 5: on October tenth, when they go and play Louisiana Tech.

734
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 5: Because they're going to get these first five games in.

735
00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 5: I'm not sure this coaching staff knows what they have

736
00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 5: on hand and what the strengths are. When you look

737
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:49,640
Speaker 5: at the history of some of these coordinators, like body

738
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:52,640
Speaker 5: Reed is coming from Northern Iowa, not really a lot

739
00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:54,400
Speaker 5: of ties to this program. And then we'll see what

740
00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:57,080
Speaker 5: his offense can produce. Because it's not flashy, it's successful

741
00:31:57,120 --> 00:31:58,680
Speaker 5: but it's not flashy. And then when you look at

742
00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:01,680
Speaker 5: Brian Stewart, he was a defensive coordinator for Houston in

743
00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:04,920
Speaker 5: the XFL, So I mean, we definitely have a collection

744
00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:07,280
Speaker 5: here of some guys. I think the one thing that

745
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 5: I keep coming back to, and I talked about this

746
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 5: with Oklahoma's offensive line, both sides of the ball in

747
00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:16,600
Speaker 5: the trench are projected to be the worst in this conference. Yes,

748
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 5: below Kennesaw State, So that gives me a ton of pause.

749
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:26,160
Speaker 5: The offensive line completely gone. Guard Mateo Gavara's back, but

750
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:28,640
Speaker 5: he had a really high pass grade, but he had

751
00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:30,840
Speaker 5: a terrible run blocking grade, one of the worst in

752
00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 5: the conference. So you know there are players there, but

753
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:36,920
Speaker 5: the talent level's not there or the experience is not there.

754
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:38,640
Speaker 5: And then when you go to the defensive side, there's

755
00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 5: not a single returning starter coming back in this three

756
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:43,120
Speaker 5: four defensive Brian Stewart's going to call, at least that's

757
00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:44,840
Speaker 5: what he called in the XFL. So we'll see what

758
00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:46,960
Speaker 5: comes up. I think, you know, the thing for me

759
00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:49,440
Speaker 5: is I project this at five point one, but I

760
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:51,680
Speaker 5: got to go under five because when you look at

761
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:53,720
Speaker 5: this team, you think, well, the only thing that they're

762
00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:55,920
Speaker 5: going to be able to do only a couple things

763
00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:57,040
Speaker 5: they are going to do, and they're not going to

764
00:32:57,080 --> 00:32:58,560
Speaker 5: be able to defend the run. You are going to

765
00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:00,719
Speaker 5: be dead last in the trench and that is going

766
00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:02,440
Speaker 5: to affect you on how you defend. And when you

767
00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:04,840
Speaker 5: look at the games that they kind of have coin

768
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 5: flips against, I mean, this schedule is brutal.

769
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:08,440
Speaker 4: Like law Tech.

770
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:09,959
Speaker 5: You're going to law Tech, they're going to be off

771
00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:11,760
Speaker 5: of a buy. You're going to go to Jacksonville State,

772
00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:13,920
Speaker 5: You're going to be off of a buy. New Mexico

773
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:16,120
Speaker 5: State is a coin flip game. But guess what, they're

774
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:18,280
Speaker 5: extremely good in the trench. They can still run the

775
00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:20,600
Speaker 5: ball because they got Diego Povey's entire offensive line. No

776
00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:22,960
Speaker 5: matter who's behind them. I think, you know, the three

777
00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:24,960
Speaker 5: of us could run through the holes in New Mexico

778
00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:26,600
Speaker 5: State is going to create with that offensive line. So

779
00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:29,000
Speaker 5: that's a bad mismatch. I don't have any money on

780
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 5: Middle Tennessee State. I agree the time to start playing

781
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:34,640
Speaker 5: them if the team is still responding to Derek Mason

782
00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:37,160
Speaker 5: that they're a play on team for the rest because

783
00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:39,880
Speaker 5: their power rating should be blown to shit. And you

784
00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:42,040
Speaker 5: know when you get enough experience on the offensive line

785
00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:44,080
Speaker 5: five games and it's the same thing I said about Oklahoma.

786
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:47,000
Speaker 5: You may have zero returning starters, but by the time

787
00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:48,680
Speaker 5: you get to the sixth game of the season, they're

788
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:51,800
Speaker 5: completely like experienced. So I would say this is a

789
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:53,800
Speaker 5: year zero and a half.

790
00:33:57,120 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 1: All right, from one team and a year zero to

791
00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 1: another team coming off a historically good season, the New

792
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 1: Mexico State Aggies. They went ten and five last year,

793
00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 1: seven and one in the CUSA. They make it to

794
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:10,560
Speaker 1: the title game, but Jerry Kill is gone, Tony Sanchez

795
00:34:10,640 --> 00:34:12,879
Speaker 1: moving up from wide receiver coach. Their win total set

796
00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:15,799
Speaker 1: at four odds to win the conference title eighty to one.

797
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:18,200
Speaker 1: College of Ball playoff three hundred, five hundred to one.

798
00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:20,000
Speaker 1: Out there in the market, Leo's poor. One out for

799
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:22,879
Speaker 1: Jerry Kill and Diego Pavia. They gave us so many

800
00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 1: winners last year. It was such a fun ride. Die

801
00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 1: die and all of the cold water hitting me. With

802
00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:34,560
Speaker 1: Tony Sanchez being the coach because he was a disaster

803
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:38,480
Speaker 1: at UNLV, with more resources, a better recruiting footprint, he

804
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:41,720
Speaker 1: never got it done. I don't like this high er whatsoever.

805
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:44,719
Speaker 1: You also have a quarterback competition one hundred and twenty

806
00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:48,400
Speaker 1: fourth in returning production. I know that Ianella loves Monty Watkins,

807
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:50,640
Speaker 1: who averaged over ten yards per carry, and the offensive

808
00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:52,920
Speaker 1: line is elite, so I do think that gives them

809
00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:56,359
Speaker 1: a high ceiling offensively if they get competent quarterback play.

810
00:34:56,920 --> 00:34:59,000
Speaker 1: But the secondary is really the only thing that you

811
00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:01,719
Speaker 1: can look defensive that I really feel good about. The

812
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:04,239
Speaker 1: addition of Oklahoma State's next session could be you know,

813
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 1: they could be okay, maybe top four or five in

814
00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:10,279
Speaker 1: the conference in terms of stopping the pass, but I

815
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:12,799
Speaker 1: question their run defense. It has to replace a decent

816
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:15,279
Speaker 1: amount of players tackles up front. Let's look at the

817
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:18,879
Speaker 1: schedule Liberty at Fresno, at Sam Houston, at Jacksonville State,

818
00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:22,200
Speaker 1: all before October ninth, and late games against Western Kentucky

819
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:24,399
Speaker 1: at home and at Texas A and M. That could

820
00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:26,759
Speaker 1: be a late body blow. I'm not going to do

821
00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:29,279
Speaker 1: it because these are my guys. Yeah, I can't think,

822
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:32,280
Speaker 1: I lean under. I'm not going to put an official

823
00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 1: play out there. I'm certainly not going to pick against

824
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:37,480
Speaker 1: them because there's going to be some huge spreads early.

825
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:42,160
Speaker 1: You know, Liberty Fresno in particular, just in general, I

826
00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:44,560
Speaker 1: am just going to bask in what twenty twenty three was,

827
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:46,800
Speaker 1: what they meant to this podcast, what they meant to

828
00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:51,160
Speaker 1: so many gamblers. But you know, history is history. So

829
00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 1: we move on to the Tony Sanchez era, but grudgingly,

830
00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:56,360
Speaker 1: as far as I'm concerned, What do you think? I know?

831
00:35:56,719 --> 00:36:00,399
Speaker 3: That's exactly. Ryan just can't road against his team after

832
00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:01,840
Speaker 3: what they did to us. But you said it.

833
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:05,560
Speaker 6: They lost our sweet baby boy, Diego Diego to Vandy.

834
00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 6: They you know, by the way, let's go ahead. We're

835
00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:11,280
Speaker 6: going to officially adopt that game. Vanderbilt Auburn is officially

836
00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:13,560
Speaker 6: a G five game this year. Colin Me and Calbrees

837
00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:17,400
Speaker 6: are locking in Vanderbilt money line, Gary Kills Sipin, Marguerite

838
00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:21,120
Speaker 6: is in Mexico. They also lost backup QB's Blaze Berlowitz

839
00:36:21,200 --> 00:36:25,280
Speaker 6: to Vandy, Gavin Frankees to Virginia. You mentioned the QB competition.

840
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:27,760
Speaker 6: You got Deuce Hogan, Brandon Nuniez.

841
00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:28,480
Speaker 3: And Parker Award.

842
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:32,319
Speaker 6: Who's QB one, They said the battle continuing to fall.

843
00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:37,560
Speaker 6: You mentioned him the official my guy of the QUSA,

844
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 6: Monty Walkins. He was my guy last year. I was

845
00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 6: banging this drum all year.

846
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:41,680
Speaker 5: Get on the dam.

847
00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:43,680
Speaker 4: He's got ten yards per carrying.

848
00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:46,680
Speaker 6: Dude averaged nine point seven yards per carry last season

849
00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:49,320
Speaker 6: on fifty nine carries, which is a lot to be

850
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:51,960
Speaker 6: averaging ten yards per pop, but not enough when you're

851
00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:55,120
Speaker 6: averaging ten yards for pop. He on fifty nine carries

852
00:36:55,160 --> 00:36:58,040
Speaker 6: last year, twenty one of them went for at least

853
00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:02,600
Speaker 6: ten yards. Forty five percent of his carries win for

854
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:05,440
Speaker 6: a first down or a touchdown. He should get the

855
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:09,840
Speaker 6: ball every single play for this offense. I love Monty Watkins.

856
00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:12,120
Speaker 6: He is my guy. I'm gonna have to make a

857
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:15,719
Speaker 6: Go Monty Go shirt. And you mentioned the offensive line

858
00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:17,359
Speaker 6: should be fine, so I really do like what they're

859
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:21,720
Speaker 6: doing there. And they got to replace a ton of receivers.

860
00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:24,080
Speaker 6: Though Trent Hudson, John and Brady eli Stower is all gone.

861
00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:25,560
Speaker 3: I agree with you.

862
00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:28,480
Speaker 6: The secondary does have some hope. Dylan Early's returning. You

863
00:37:28,520 --> 00:37:30,919
Speaker 6: mentioned Nick Sasan's coming in from Oklahoma. They also brought

864
00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:34,520
Speaker 6: in Miles Norwood from Iowa State. Josiah Cox from Arizona

865
00:37:34,640 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 6: has two safeties that I really like. The linebacker has

866
00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:40,399
Speaker 6: massive questions, so that's the can they stop the run?

867
00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:44,560
Speaker 6: And Tony Sanchez is not a good coach. He never

868
00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:47,840
Speaker 6: had a winning season in five years. I absolutely hated

869
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:48,359
Speaker 6: this higher.

870
00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:51,160
Speaker 3: This is also just an extremely hard place to win at,

871
00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:52,839
Speaker 3: and you bring in a coach who couldn't win at

872
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:55,640
Speaker 3: a place that's not hard to win at. So I

873
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:56,799
Speaker 3: think five wins is.

874
00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:59,560
Speaker 6: A lot to ask from this team. But they were

875
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:02,480
Speaker 6: just too good to us last year to ever want

876
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:05,239
Speaker 6: to root against them. So we will always have our

877
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:09,320
Speaker 6: sweet baby boy, Diego Diego, But I cannot invest in

878
00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:10,759
Speaker 6: the Aggies again this year.

879
00:38:11,600 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 1: The land of Enchantments. Enchantment giveth and it taketh away.

880
00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:18,279
Speaker 1: They gave us Bronco Menden Hall in Albuquerque, but they're

881
00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:20,600
Speaker 1: giving us Tony Sanchez. Am I being too harsh Colin?

882
00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:23,839
Speaker 1: Or is this higher just not what the doctor ordered?

883
00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:26,400
Speaker 5: Yeah? I mean you guys can flash your penance and

884
00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:28,279
Speaker 5: your shirts and whatever the hell it is you got

885
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:30,640
Speaker 5: over there. But once Tony Sanchez was named the head coach,

886
00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:34,160
Speaker 5: I'm off this train completely. I mean, I mean a

887
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:36,320
Speaker 5: quick story here. I think it was twenty sixteen. I

888
00:38:36,360 --> 00:38:38,640
Speaker 5: flew to Vegas. The UNLV was fifty to one to

889
00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:40,360
Speaker 5: win the Mountain West. I flew in went to the

890
00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:43,560
Speaker 5: counter at Cantor Gaming. Tried to put one thousand dollars

891
00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:45,560
Speaker 5: on fifty to one and they limited me to about

892
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:47,960
Speaker 5: one hundred and thirteen dollars. And they said, what's your

893
00:38:47,960 --> 00:38:50,400
Speaker 5: big deal with UNLV? I said, ARMANI Rogers is coming in.

894
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:53,760
Speaker 5: Tony Sanchez produced all these blue chips from Bishop Gorman.

895
00:38:54,040 --> 00:38:55,439
Speaker 5: This is going to be the greatest thing. No one's

896
00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:57,400
Speaker 5: going to see the running rebels coming around. Egg on

897
00:38:57,480 --> 00:39:00,560
Speaker 5: my face. That was a terrible, terrible take because Tony

898
00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:03,400
Speaker 5: Sanchez never panned out as a college coach whatsoever. It

899
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:05,520
Speaker 5: was a disaster at UNLV. And if you look at

900
00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:07,359
Speaker 5: all those five star blue chip recruits that come out

901
00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:09,520
Speaker 5: of Bishop Gorman High schoo out of Vegas area, they've

902
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:11,799
Speaker 5: never had an impact on college football. I can't remember

903
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:13,920
Speaker 5: ever seeing one in the NFL. I mean, I'm sure

904
00:39:13,960 --> 00:39:15,719
Speaker 5: someone's gonna call me out on one player, but they

905
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:17,920
Speaker 5: have never produced at the college level than what was

906
00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:19,040
Speaker 5: produced at that high school.

907
00:39:19,400 --> 00:39:20,000
Speaker 4: Overhyped.

908
00:39:20,280 --> 00:39:23,600
Speaker 5: All right, so UNLV disaster. What's gonna happen here?

909
00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:24,360
Speaker 4: Disaster?

910
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:26,959
Speaker 5: All right? Let's talk about the offensive coordinator Tyler White.

911
00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 5: He was a special teams coach. Why not making the

912
00:39:29,200 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 5: offensive coordinator Joe Morris. Hey, he got stolen from Sam Houston.

913
00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:34,680
Speaker 5: That was a pretty good get. They'll bring him in.

914
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:37,320
Speaker 5: He's gonna have nickel packages. He's gonna split between the

915
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:39,399
Speaker 5: three and four man front, but he's gonna have about

916
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:41,920
Speaker 5: an average blitz rate play a ton of quarters. Doesn't

917
00:39:41,920 --> 00:39:45,640
Speaker 5: want to give up explosives here. But essentially, I'm not

918
00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:48,000
Speaker 5: going to bet them, even though I project this four

919
00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:51,640
Speaker 5: point six win total is four point five, I think.

920
00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:52,839
Speaker 4: That they can get over this wind total.

921
00:39:52,880 --> 00:39:54,960
Speaker 5: If you need a bet on New Mexico State, they're

922
00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 5: gonna be faves over Simo, New Mexico, La Tech, and

923
00:39:59,239 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 5: UTEP right, And when you get those four wins, then

924
00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:05,520
Speaker 5: you got a couple of coin flips. Florida International, New

925
00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:07,000
Speaker 5: Mexico State will be off a bye. They get a

926
00:40:07,040 --> 00:40:09,839
Speaker 5: lot of rest with Florida International. Then Middle Tennessee State

927
00:40:10,920 --> 00:40:13,279
Speaker 5: huge trench advantage in that game that we just spoke of,

928
00:40:13,480 --> 00:40:16,040
Speaker 5: so they can clip over four and a half. Am

929
00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:18,960
Speaker 5: I putting my money behind Tony Sanchez. I will defer

930
00:40:19,160 --> 00:40:20,640
Speaker 5: and take my investments elsewhere.

931
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:24,960
Speaker 3: Colin, you weren't a fan of Bishop Gorman, legend Tate martel.

932
00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:28,520
Speaker 5: Is he still on the Miami. There's the on Ohio

933
00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:30,520
Speaker 5: State's roster. Who which roster is on these days?

934
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:32,680
Speaker 1: And there's always a rumor he's like a wide receiver

935
00:40:32,800 --> 00:40:34,440
Speaker 1: in the MAC or something. He's like one of those

936
00:40:34,520 --> 00:40:37,320
Speaker 1: urban legends. I haven't seen him in Central Michigan. Chips,

937
00:40:37,400 --> 00:40:38,840
Speaker 1: Fire up chips, you know, Maroon.

938
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:40,719
Speaker 4: I thought it was a tight end.

939
00:40:41,160 --> 00:40:41,920
Speaker 5: He was a tight end.

940
00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:47,360
Speaker 4: I mean I think it was like five nine. He

941
00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 4: said he was six feet tall. I'm sure he could

942
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:49,920
Speaker 4: have been a quality tight end.

943
00:40:49,960 --> 00:40:53,839
Speaker 1: All right, If New Mexico State potentially is going down,

944
00:40:54,040 --> 00:40:56,920
Speaker 1: can I talk you into Sam Houston going up three

945
00:40:56,960 --> 00:40:59,000
Speaker 1: and nine last year? Two and six in the conference.

946
00:40:59,280 --> 00:41:03,359
Speaker 1: Ksey keel enters year eleven with the Bearcats. He went

947
00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:06,399
Speaker 1: to four FCS slash Division one Double A title games.

948
00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:08,520
Speaker 1: He won two of them. Their win totals sitting at

949
00:41:08,560 --> 00:41:12,120
Speaker 1: four and a half. Their Conference USA title odds seventeen

950
00:41:12,160 --> 00:41:15,280
Speaker 1: to one College Football Playoff. Like I said, they're all mispriced.

951
00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:17,640
Speaker 1: No one's betting them to make the twelve team playoff,

952
00:41:17,680 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 1: but three hundred four hundred to one, Keeler is somebody

953
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:25,160
Speaker 1: who can really coach. The transition last year did not

954
00:41:25,239 --> 00:41:28,640
Speaker 1: go well because he had awful quarterback play Keegan Shoemaker

955
00:41:28,680 --> 00:41:31,560
Speaker 1: finish one hundred and twelfth in QBR. But this receiving

956
00:41:31,640 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 1: corps is really strong, particularly Noah Smith. Three starters back

957
00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:38,239
Speaker 1: on the line Jace Bauer. Time he comes in from

958
00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:42,000
Speaker 1: Central Michigan. I have a total new vision of the

959
00:41:42,040 --> 00:41:44,680
Speaker 1: Bearcats in orange this year because this guy did some

960
00:41:44,800 --> 00:41:46,520
Speaker 1: special things with his legs last year. He ran for

961
00:41:46,520 --> 00:41:49,160
Speaker 1: one hundred and six yards against Northern Illinois in a shootout.

962
00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:51,839
Speaker 1: Last year, he scored four rushing touchdowns and an upset

963
00:41:51,920 --> 00:41:55,360
Speaker 1: of South Alabama. If he keeps teams honest with his legs,

964
00:41:55,600 --> 00:41:57,720
Speaker 1: this offense will jump up in a huge way because

965
00:41:57,719 --> 00:42:00,000
Speaker 1: he has the weapons on the perimeter defense. They high

966
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:02,840
Speaker 1: a new defensive coordinator, the youngest and all college football

967
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:06,239
Speaker 1: Skalar Cassidy, just twenty nine years of age. They have

968
00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:09,160
Speaker 1: experienced at all three levels of this defense. Not a

969
00:42:09,239 --> 00:42:11,600
Speaker 1: whole ton of returning snaps, but at least they have

970
00:42:11,719 --> 00:42:14,400
Speaker 1: somebody in each position room to look at as you know,

971
00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:17,399
Speaker 1: their their senior leader or their junior leader. The entire

972
00:42:17,520 --> 00:42:20,680
Speaker 1: starting lineup, by the way, either junior, a senior, or

973
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:24,440
Speaker 1: a super senior on their defense solid specialists, including Colby

974
00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:27,719
Speaker 1: Sessoms who went eleven for fourteen on field goals. That's

975
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:30,080
Speaker 1: going to be clutch in a lot of close games

976
00:42:30,080 --> 00:42:32,960
Speaker 1: because they have many winnable games on this docket.

977
00:42:33,360 --> 00:42:33,920
Speaker 4: At Rice.

978
00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:37,040
Speaker 1: You know, Rice losing a lot in terms of their

979
00:42:37,080 --> 00:42:40,440
Speaker 1: overall playmakers on the perimeter. Home against Hawaii, home against

980
00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:44,520
Speaker 1: New Mexico State, at UTEP, at FIU, at Kennesaw. Can

981
00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:47,360
Speaker 1: they put it together this year? I'll start I don't know,

982
00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:48,040
Speaker 1: I'll start.

983
00:42:47,880 --> 00:42:48,440
Speaker 4: With you, Colin.

984
00:42:48,600 --> 00:42:50,840
Speaker 1: This was a team that we we went back to

985
00:42:51,520 --> 00:42:54,719
Speaker 1: the well many times, we got burned by Shoemaker. Are

986
00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:57,760
Speaker 1: we going in on Sam Houston again with a new quarterback?

987
00:42:58,200 --> 00:43:00,680
Speaker 5: We are? This is the team that I will make

988
00:43:00,760 --> 00:43:03,920
Speaker 5: the conference championship game along with Liberty. Can they beat Liberty?

989
00:43:04,120 --> 00:43:06,759
Speaker 5: Probably not, But if you can find your bets to

990
00:43:06,800 --> 00:43:08,799
Speaker 5: get them in, that's good. Or you can take these

991
00:43:08,840 --> 00:43:11,520
Speaker 5: conference futures, which, by the way, we're in August, and

992
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:13,520
Speaker 5: since nobody's talking about Sam Houston and any of these

993
00:43:13,520 --> 00:43:15,440
Speaker 5: other teams, Liberty is just going to get thicker on

994
00:43:15,520 --> 00:43:17,239
Speaker 5: the on the number to win this conference and the

995
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:18,800
Speaker 5: rest of the teams are going to have some serious

996
00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:20,759
Speaker 5: value and this is one of them. So if you're

997
00:43:20,760 --> 00:43:22,760
Speaker 5: going to look at it, I make them thirteen percent

998
00:43:22,840 --> 00:43:25,600
Speaker 5: to win this conference. That it's odds of plus six seventy.

999
00:43:26,120 --> 00:43:27,680
Speaker 5: You want to go check another You want to go

1000
00:43:27,800 --> 00:43:30,399
Speaker 5: check another power rating system out there. S P plus

1001
00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:32,840
Speaker 5: makes it five percent to win this conference, which correlates

1002
00:43:32,880 --> 00:43:35,040
Speaker 5: to about a twenty to one ticket. What's the numbers

1003
00:43:35,080 --> 00:43:37,000
Speaker 5: out there? There's twenty five to ones all over. So

1004
00:43:37,160 --> 00:43:39,640
Speaker 5: from a value perspective, they have it. Now, go ahead

1005
00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:41,680
Speaker 5: and look at what this roster was last year, a

1006
00:43:41,840 --> 00:43:45,440
Speaker 5: second order win total darling, a lot of games that

1007
00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:48,840
Speaker 5: they had in hand, zero offense. I will not forget

1008
00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:51,239
Speaker 5: that this team was oh to five, oh to six,

1009
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:53,840
Speaker 5: didn't win a game, and was favored and steaming in

1010
00:43:53,880 --> 00:43:57,399
Speaker 5: the market. Wales like this team. Smart guys, sharp guys

1011
00:43:57,480 --> 00:43:58,960
Speaker 5: like this team. They like the coaching staff.

1012
00:44:00,239 --> 00:44:02,560
Speaker 3: Ah, eat him up, Cats.

1013
00:44:03,400 --> 00:44:05,200
Speaker 7: Ooh, we do have a.

1014
00:44:05,160 --> 00:44:07,239
Speaker 5: Twenty nine year old defensive coordinator that's been hired here,

1015
00:44:07,280 --> 00:44:10,799
Speaker 5: Skyla Cassidy comes in from Abalene Christian, formerly at Missouri State.

1016
00:44:11,120 --> 00:44:12,400
Speaker 4: Either way, can you explain that?

1017
00:44:12,520 --> 00:44:14,319
Speaker 1: Because I was like, oh, you know, I'll dig into

1018
00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:16,960
Speaker 1: his resume a little bit. I'm sure that his defense

1019
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:19,160
Speaker 1: at Abilene was great. It was not.

1020
00:44:19,840 --> 00:44:21,799
Speaker 5: So what is with this hire?

1021
00:44:22,560 --> 00:44:24,440
Speaker 10: I don't know, Like I mean, I mean, it's like

1022
00:44:24,760 --> 00:44:26,160
Speaker 10: twenty nine years old, and you go and look at

1023
00:44:26,160 --> 00:44:28,040
Speaker 10: his numbers. He has a three man front three four

1024
00:44:28,160 --> 00:44:30,200
Speaker 10: three three five and Bay goes that and passing down

1025
00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:32,520
Speaker 10: is a very low blitz rate of sixteen percent. That

1026
00:44:32,680 --> 00:44:35,680
Speaker 10: is really low at the college level, which means he's

1027
00:44:35,800 --> 00:44:37,239
Speaker 10: just there to stop explosive plays.

1028
00:44:37,280 --> 00:44:38,880
Speaker 5: If you're running a three three five and you're not

1029
00:44:38,960 --> 00:44:42,840
Speaker 5: blitzing at any time, it really is kind of a

1030
00:44:42,920 --> 00:44:46,520
Speaker 5: questionable call. But look, he's probably got a recommendation for

1031
00:44:46,560 --> 00:44:49,160
Speaker 5: Bobby Patrino and I don't know the relationship between the

1032
00:44:49,200 --> 00:44:52,480
Speaker 5: coaching staff between Abilene Christian and Sam Houston. Whatever, you know,

1033
00:44:52,640 --> 00:44:54,960
Speaker 5: recommendation came through on that resume to get a twenty

1034
00:44:55,000 --> 00:44:57,359
Speaker 5: nine year old as a defensive coordinator. But he must

1035
00:44:57,440 --> 00:45:00,880
Speaker 5: have impressed, maybe brought a slide show, maybe brought a PowerPoint,

1036
00:45:01,320 --> 00:45:03,400
Speaker 5: maybe a little process flow in visio. I don't know

1037
00:45:03,480 --> 00:45:05,280
Speaker 5: what the hell he did to Casey Keeler in the interview,

1038
00:45:05,280 --> 00:45:08,239
Speaker 5: because he got the job. They do have offense this year.

1039
00:45:08,440 --> 00:45:10,640
Speaker 5: I love Jase byro coming in from Central Michigan, he's

1040
00:45:10,640 --> 00:45:13,520
Speaker 5: going to compete with Grant Gunnell. There's major injuries to

1041
00:45:13,600 --> 00:45:16,440
Speaker 5: this offense last season, and that last season was supposed

1042
00:45:16,440 --> 00:45:18,040
Speaker 5: to be the year they sat them all out as

1043
00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:20,759
Speaker 5: red shirts so they could join and rumble inside Conference USA,

1044
00:45:20,760 --> 00:45:23,239
Speaker 5: and then they all got hurt. So those championship games

1045
00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:25,440
Speaker 5: that they've played in in the FCS, there's still some

1046
00:45:25,640 --> 00:45:27,920
Speaker 5: remaining remnants from those players that are still on the

1047
00:45:27,960 --> 00:45:30,040
Speaker 5: squad ready to play. When you go and you look

1048
00:45:30,080 --> 00:45:32,080
Speaker 5: at the schedule, this is one of the easiest road

1049
00:45:32,120 --> 00:45:34,279
Speaker 5: schedules in the conference. And that's what's important to me.

1050
00:45:34,480 --> 00:45:36,080
Speaker 5: They're going to start the season off zero to two

1051
00:45:36,239 --> 00:45:38,359
Speaker 5: versus Rice and UC, they don't really have a shot

1052
00:45:38,400 --> 00:45:41,120
Speaker 5: in that game. There's a really good chance this team's

1053
00:45:41,160 --> 00:45:42,759
Speaker 5: going to be zero to four in non conference through

1054
00:45:42,800 --> 00:45:45,120
Speaker 5: the first five games, and then after that you could

1055
00:45:45,120 --> 00:45:47,520
Speaker 5: be looking at books having live odds on this conference

1056
00:45:47,560 --> 00:45:49,880
Speaker 5: and Sam Houston could be sixty to one, right, and

1057
00:45:49,960 --> 00:45:51,560
Speaker 5: you start off with a one in four record or

1058
00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:53,799
Speaker 5: a zero to four record in non common. But there's

1059
00:45:53,840 --> 00:45:56,200
Speaker 5: five easy wins on this conference on the road schedules.

1060
00:45:56,280 --> 00:45:59,440
Speaker 5: Pretty good we compared to everybody else. I can't get

1061
00:45:59,440 --> 00:46:00,840
Speaker 5: over the fact that this team was owed five to

1062
00:46:00,880 --> 00:46:02,480
Speaker 5: zero to six and they were steaming as a favorite

1063
00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:04,920
Speaker 5: in the market. I am on this train. I think

1064
00:46:04,960 --> 00:46:06,799
Speaker 5: they're good enough to pull off an upset against one

1065
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:09,080
Speaker 5: of the big three in this conference. The defense is

1066
00:46:09,120 --> 00:46:11,560
Speaker 5: a huge question. I will say that one of.

1067
00:46:11,600 --> 00:46:14,120
Speaker 1: Our favorite stories, Ionello, is when you take an FCS

1068
00:46:14,239 --> 00:46:17,200
Speaker 1: program that wins and wins big, you move them up.

1069
00:46:17,280 --> 00:46:18,959
Speaker 1: That's you know, the Sun Belt was kind of built

1070
00:46:19,000 --> 00:46:21,520
Speaker 1: on programs like that. Do you believe that they're going

1071
00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:23,640
Speaker 1: to turn a corner here and show us a little

1072
00:46:23,760 --> 00:46:26,040
Speaker 1: that James Madison magic or do you think it's going

1073
00:46:26,120 --> 00:46:27,839
Speaker 1: to be a struggle just to get to Bowl eligibility.

1074
00:46:28,920 --> 00:46:31,000
Speaker 3: No, I do believe. I think Healer did a great job.

1075
00:46:31,080 --> 00:46:33,279
Speaker 3: They were an FCS powerhouse. We saw it.

1076
00:46:33,400 --> 00:46:36,680
Speaker 6: They tried to save all their players. They basically read

1077
00:46:36,719 --> 00:46:39,560
Speaker 6: shered the entire team. They try to save other players

1078
00:46:39,560 --> 00:46:42,160
Speaker 6: for last year and ended up being a disaster. But

1079
00:46:43,560 --> 00:46:47,120
Speaker 6: because of that, they have pretty good depth across the board,

1080
00:46:47,120 --> 00:46:49,479
Speaker 6: which a lot of teams in this conference can't say.

1081
00:46:50,200 --> 00:46:51,839
Speaker 6: They just need to find a quarterback. I mean, they

1082
00:46:51,880 --> 00:46:54,239
Speaker 6: bring back their leading rushers, they add Jade Dock, They're

1083
00:46:54,239 --> 00:46:56,400
Speaker 6: three leading rushers, they add Jade Ducker from Memphis to

1084
00:46:56,480 --> 00:47:00,239
Speaker 6: the mix. They bring back basically every player who caught

1085
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:03,200
Speaker 6: a pass for them last year except their number three

1086
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:06,360
Speaker 6: receiver and their backup tight end. So while the defense

1087
00:47:06,400 --> 00:47:08,880
Speaker 6: has to retool a little bit, Kavean Gaither should be

1088
00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:12,480
Speaker 6: the anchor at middle linebacker. And while I say it

1089
00:47:12,560 --> 00:47:15,400
Speaker 6: was a disaster, and Colin mentioned this too, like they

1090
00:47:15,480 --> 00:47:19,200
Speaker 6: had five one score losses last year, so I think

1091
00:47:19,239 --> 00:47:21,759
Speaker 6: they were a lot closer than it seemed. And now

1092
00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:24,680
Speaker 6: they bring back all that depth, so I kind of

1093
00:47:24,800 --> 00:47:26,120
Speaker 6: do like this team as well.

1094
00:47:26,760 --> 00:47:28,719
Speaker 3: And the only reason I.

1095
00:47:28,760 --> 00:47:33,200
Speaker 6: Didn't bet this win total over is because the CUSA

1096
00:47:33,480 --> 00:47:36,360
Speaker 6: was the last team I did by prep for, and

1097
00:47:36,680 --> 00:47:38,440
Speaker 6: when you look at the non Kong, I think this

1098
00:47:38,560 --> 00:47:40,840
Speaker 6: win total, when you do all the coin flippy games,

1099
00:47:41,440 --> 00:47:44,040
Speaker 6: this win total could very well be decided early, and

1100
00:47:44,160 --> 00:47:48,320
Speaker 6: it could very well be decided with Rice and Hawaii

1101
00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:50,880
Speaker 6: in the non con And the problem is I did

1102
00:47:50,960 --> 00:47:52,879
Speaker 6: both of those previous first and I already bet both

1103
00:47:52,920 --> 00:47:54,560
Speaker 6: of those overs, so I kind of need them to

1104
00:47:54,600 --> 00:47:56,880
Speaker 6: both beat Sam Houston, so I don't really want to

1105
00:47:56,920 --> 00:48:00,200
Speaker 6: go against myself there, But honestly, if they get one

1106
00:48:00,200 --> 00:48:03,200
Speaker 6: of those two games, this total should go over. I'm

1107
00:48:03,200 --> 00:48:04,719
Speaker 6: just kind of hoping they don't because I already bet

1108
00:48:04,800 --> 00:48:05,400
Speaker 6: Rice in Hawaii.

1109
00:48:07,160 --> 00:48:10,480
Speaker 1: All right, My face muscles are hurting because I'm forcing

1110
00:48:10,560 --> 00:48:13,919
Speaker 1: myself to smile be optimistic about these Conference USA teams.

1111
00:48:13,920 --> 00:48:15,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna give myself a break and turn to the

1112
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:18,560
Speaker 1: law Tech Bulldogs three and nine last year, two and

1113
00:48:18,680 --> 00:48:21,760
Speaker 1: six in conference Sonny Comby in year three, six and eighteen.

1114
00:48:21,840 --> 00:48:24,000
Speaker 1: So far, their win total set at four and a

1115
00:48:24,040 --> 00:48:26,440
Speaker 1: half odds to win the conference, twenty five to one,

1116
00:48:26,480 --> 00:48:28,440
Speaker 1: three hundred to one to make the playoff. This is

1117
00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:30,440
Speaker 1: the kind of roster that gets you fired after six

1118
00:48:30,520 --> 00:48:32,799
Speaker 1: and eighteen start as Colin, you know, put in all

1119
00:48:32,920 --> 00:48:35,560
Speaker 1: the work, keeping track of all the transfer activity, returning

1120
00:48:35,640 --> 00:48:38,680
Speaker 1: production negative nine, and the net tarp that's worst in

1121
00:48:38,800 --> 00:48:42,640
Speaker 1: the conference, that's tied ninth worst in America. Jack Turner,

1122
00:48:42,840 --> 00:48:46,320
Speaker 1: their quarterback has been meh in limited action five tds,

1123
00:48:46,400 --> 00:48:50,680
Speaker 1: five picks, sub fifty seven percent completion percentage. Denario Davenport

1124
00:48:50,760 --> 00:48:52,680
Speaker 1: comes in to revive the running game that finished ninety

1125
00:48:52,760 --> 00:48:55,400
Speaker 1: ninth last season. The offensive line does have four seniors,

1126
00:48:55,480 --> 00:48:57,680
Speaker 1: two of whom are returning starters, so maybe the run

1127
00:48:57,719 --> 00:48:59,960
Speaker 1: game gets a little bit better, but the defense will

1128
00:49:00,160 --> 00:49:02,680
Speaker 1: is so bad against the run last year and if

1129
00:49:02,719 --> 00:49:05,160
Speaker 1: you're hoping for that fifth win to cash and over

1130
00:49:05,520 --> 00:49:08,960
Speaker 1: look at this finish. Jacksonville stayed at home at Western Kentucky,

1131
00:49:09,120 --> 00:49:12,480
Speaker 1: at Arkansas and home against Kennesaw State. Three of those

1132
00:49:12,520 --> 00:49:14,319
Speaker 1: teams can really run the ball. We're going to talk

1133
00:49:14,360 --> 00:49:16,640
Speaker 1: about the Owls in a second. From Kennesaw. That is

1134
00:49:16,760 --> 00:49:19,120
Speaker 1: not a good recipe for a LA Tech team that

1135
00:49:19,400 --> 00:49:22,160
Speaker 1: is desperate. I'm going under four and a half year.

1136
00:49:22,480 --> 00:49:25,080
Speaker 1: Sonny Comby is out after this season. I'm putting my

1137
00:49:25,120 --> 00:49:27,319
Speaker 1: stake in the ground. Somebody has to lose games. As

1138
00:49:27,400 --> 00:49:29,040
Speaker 1: I like to say when we go through these previews,

1139
00:49:29,120 --> 00:49:31,640
Speaker 1: it's going to be the Bulldogs here this fall. I'll

1140
00:49:31,680 --> 00:49:33,719
Speaker 1: go to you first, Colin, what are your thoughts on

1141
00:49:33,880 --> 00:49:35,839
Speaker 1: Sonny Comby just not being able to get it done

1142
00:49:36,120 --> 00:49:38,640
Speaker 1: and with Smoke Harris no longer being that big play

1143
00:49:38,719 --> 00:49:42,800
Speaker 1: guy receiving and returning, I just don't see where the

1144
00:49:42,880 --> 00:49:44,319
Speaker 1: offense is going to come from to be able to.

1145
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:45,760
Speaker 4: Boost a really shaky defense.

1146
00:49:46,160 --> 00:49:49,000
Speaker 5: Well, for those of you that have access to markets

1147
00:49:49,040 --> 00:49:51,279
Speaker 5: and first coach to be fired, this is up there

1148
00:49:51,320 --> 00:49:53,279
Speaker 5: with the Dave Randa and the Sam Pittman's of the world.

1149
00:49:53,320 --> 00:49:56,839
Speaker 5: Because Sonny Comby's ad that hired him moved on. He's

1150
00:49:56,880 --> 00:49:59,600
Speaker 5: like in an assistant position within the SEC office. He's

1151
00:49:59,600 --> 00:50:03,040
Speaker 5: not even an anymore. He's just gone. And the new

1152
00:50:03,120 --> 00:50:05,279
Speaker 5: ad I don't think is very long for Comby once

1153
00:50:05,320 --> 00:50:07,000
Speaker 5: probably wants to have his own regime in there, so

1154
00:50:07,520 --> 00:50:09,000
Speaker 5: I'd keep an eye on that. He does have a

1155
00:50:09,040 --> 00:50:13,120
Speaker 5: new defensive coordinator, Jermiah Johnson from Northern Iowa. Can really

1156
00:50:13,280 --> 00:50:15,759
Speaker 5: never say anything out of Northern Iowa is bad. They're

1157
00:50:15,800 --> 00:50:20,160
Speaker 5: always solid in the FCS level. Jack Turner, I mean

1158
00:50:20,360 --> 00:50:22,320
Speaker 5: more turnover worth. He plays the big time throws and

1159
00:50:22,360 --> 00:50:24,480
Speaker 5: still it's not that much, not a big sample. This

1160
00:50:24,680 --> 00:50:28,080
Speaker 5: team had eleven drops and I'm sorry Jack Turner himself

1161
00:50:28,120 --> 00:50:30,719
Speaker 5: and one hundred and forty nine passing attempts. There were

1162
00:50:30,760 --> 00:50:34,680
Speaker 5: eleven drops. You can't hit his targets whatsoever. Offensive line

1163
00:50:34,719 --> 00:50:37,680
Speaker 5: returns two known quantities I'm not saying good quantities. Two

1164
00:50:37,760 --> 00:50:40,759
Speaker 5: known quantities at guard, complete mystery at tackle and center.

1165
00:50:41,000 --> 00:50:42,800
Speaker 5: You kind of have to have those in this conference,

1166
00:50:43,760 --> 00:50:45,160
Speaker 5: you know. And then you go to the defensive side.

1167
00:50:45,200 --> 00:50:46,799
Speaker 5: Johnson ran a four to three and then a three

1168
00:50:46,880 --> 00:50:49,560
Speaker 5: three five. You and I about an average twenty percent blitz.

1169
00:50:49,600 --> 00:50:51,800
Speaker 5: A lot of quarters are not gonna allow explosives and

1170
00:50:51,920 --> 00:50:54,320
Speaker 5: centric woods, and Michael Richard returns the two best safeties

1171
00:50:54,320 --> 00:50:58,719
Speaker 5: in Conference USA. The love stops there because with Louisiana Tech,

1172
00:50:58,760 --> 00:51:00,680
Speaker 5: I got them as a fave against Nick and Utep

1173
00:51:01,200 --> 00:51:03,920
Speaker 5: I got a coin flip against Kennesaw. I'm not sure

1174
00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:05,400
Speaker 5: how they get to five wins. I'm not sure how

1175
00:51:05,440 --> 00:51:07,719
Speaker 5: they get to four wins. I don't see it. So

1176
00:51:08,960 --> 00:51:11,200
Speaker 5: you know, I projected them at three point six sp

1177
00:51:11,320 --> 00:51:13,399
Speaker 5: plus makes at four point eight. There's five's out there

1178
00:51:13,560 --> 00:51:16,319
Speaker 5: under minus one fifteen. That's the best bet on this team.

1179
00:51:16,360 --> 00:51:19,120
Speaker 5: There's no way they're getting to six unless they pull

1180
00:51:19,239 --> 00:51:22,320
Speaker 5: some sort of David Brown Northwestern coup and Jeremiah Johnson's

1181
00:51:22,320 --> 00:51:23,759
Speaker 5: the new interim and they all of a sudden win

1182
00:51:23,800 --> 00:51:25,480
Speaker 5: the back half of their schedule. I don't see it happening,

1183
00:51:25,560 --> 00:51:26,200
Speaker 5: so under for.

1184
00:51:26,280 --> 00:51:30,560
Speaker 1: Me, rustin revival or you with us on this being

1185
00:51:30,600 --> 00:51:32,040
Speaker 1: the sunny comby Funeral March.

1186
00:51:32,719 --> 00:51:34,880
Speaker 6: Yeah, this was the one that I made under five easy.

1187
00:51:35,040 --> 00:51:37,120
Speaker 6: I think think you know, Tommy wants to run this

1188
00:51:37,239 --> 00:51:41,960
Speaker 6: high powered offense and Hank Bachmeer was terrible and Jack

1189
00:51:42,000 --> 00:51:44,400
Speaker 6: Turner was somehow worse, and now he takes over as

1190
00:51:44,440 --> 00:51:47,440
Speaker 6: the full time starter. You mentioned Smoke Harris, who mined

1191
00:51:47,440 --> 00:51:49,520
Speaker 6: in everything for this team. They also lose Cyras Salin.

1192
00:51:49,600 --> 00:51:52,440
Speaker 6: They also lose Kyle Maxwell, so they lose all their receivers.

1193
00:51:52,760 --> 00:51:55,840
Speaker 6: The defense returns just three starters at ranking one hundred

1194
00:51:55,880 --> 00:51:58,080
Speaker 6: and twenty ninth in the country at stopping the run.

1195
00:51:58,800 --> 00:52:02,239
Speaker 6: Cornerback Cedric Woods, safety Michael Richard. Our solid pieces on

1196
00:52:02,280 --> 00:52:05,480
Speaker 6: the secondary, but there is just a massive question about

1197
00:52:05,480 --> 00:52:08,480
Speaker 6: this front seven. And this is a team that won

1198
00:52:08,920 --> 00:52:11,719
Speaker 6: just three games last year with a very talented wide

1199
00:52:11,760 --> 00:52:15,400
Speaker 6: receiver room, and now they have no playmakers on offense.

1200
00:52:15,640 --> 00:52:15,839
Speaker 5: Again.

1201
00:52:15,880 --> 00:52:17,400
Speaker 6: They want to throw the ball around and be a

1202
00:52:17,480 --> 00:52:19,759
Speaker 6: high powered offense, they don't have the horses to do that.

1203
00:52:20,280 --> 00:52:23,319
Speaker 6: Jack Turner looks terrible. The defense was an absolute mess.

1204
00:52:23,840 --> 00:52:26,320
Speaker 6: So yeah, they don't play Liberty this year, but they

1205
00:52:26,360 --> 00:52:29,560
Speaker 6: go to NC State. They go to Arkansas every cuse

1206
00:52:29,600 --> 00:52:32,480
Speaker 6: of games a coin flip. But I am pretty down

1207
00:52:32,520 --> 00:52:35,399
Speaker 6: on this team. I'm with Colin where under five there

1208
00:52:35,520 --> 00:52:38,600
Speaker 6: is no chance this team wins six games. So at

1209
00:52:38,640 --> 00:52:41,640
Speaker 6: the very least you're getting a push but I don't

1210
00:52:41,680 --> 00:52:45,160
Speaker 6: even think they sniff. I think three wins again would

1211
00:52:45,200 --> 00:52:47,600
Speaker 6: be lucky that I think they're worse than they were

1212
00:52:47,640 --> 00:52:48,000
Speaker 6: last year.

1213
00:52:48,000 --> 00:52:50,680
Speaker 3: They won three games last year. So I'm super, super

1214
00:52:50,719 --> 00:52:51,600
Speaker 3: super down on this team.

1215
00:52:53,120 --> 00:52:55,600
Speaker 1: Here's a middle class team in the CUSA that I'm

1216
00:52:55,760 --> 00:52:58,200
Speaker 1: a little bit bullish on. FIU four and eight last

1217
00:52:58,280 --> 00:53:00,719
Speaker 1: year one and seven in the conference. Mike McIntyre and

1218
00:53:00,760 --> 00:53:02,919
Speaker 1: both coordinators back for a year three. Their win total

1219
00:53:03,000 --> 00:53:05,359
Speaker 1: set at four odds win the conference title one hundred

1220
00:53:05,400 --> 00:53:06,839
Speaker 1: to one, three hundred to one to make the twelve

1221
00:53:06,880 --> 00:53:09,319
Speaker 1: team playoff. They were a very young offense last year,

1222
00:53:09,440 --> 00:53:12,520
Speaker 1: led by Kewan Jenkins, who was a freshman quarterback. The

1223
00:53:12,640 --> 00:53:16,080
Speaker 1: lefty accounted for three total touchdowns in three separate games.

1224
00:53:16,400 --> 00:53:19,040
Speaker 1: He also threw as many interceptions as he did at touchdowns,

1225
00:53:19,400 --> 00:53:21,800
Speaker 1: So if he can cut down on the turnovers, obviously

1226
00:53:21,840 --> 00:53:23,440
Speaker 1: that's going to be a big plus for them. But

1227
00:53:23,560 --> 00:53:26,400
Speaker 1: he's also has that continuity as head coach and offensive coordinator,

1228
00:53:26,440 --> 00:53:29,279
Speaker 1: and three starters on the line and an established group

1229
00:53:29,320 --> 00:53:33,480
Speaker 1: of pass catchers. The defense, though, was really awful, particularly

1230
00:53:33,719 --> 00:53:35,560
Speaker 1: you know in their last four games they give up

1231
00:53:35,600 --> 00:53:38,920
Speaker 1: forty two points per game. In the final third of

1232
00:53:39,120 --> 00:53:41,759
Speaker 1: their schedule last year. Back eight of the three to

1233
00:53:41,800 --> 00:53:44,160
Speaker 1: three five could be improved thanks to returning starters, but

1234
00:53:44,200 --> 00:53:47,000
Speaker 1: the run defense got shredded and lost their leading tackler,

1235
00:53:47,320 --> 00:53:51,400
Speaker 1: Jordan Gerard to transfer. But this schedule is just littered

1236
00:53:51,440 --> 00:53:54,040
Speaker 1: with winnable games, so your total is never really dead.

1237
00:53:54,360 --> 00:53:57,360
Speaker 1: He got a home game against Central Michigan at FAU, Monmouth,

1238
00:53:57,560 --> 00:54:00,480
Speaker 1: LA Tech at home, New Mexico State at home at SAW,

1239
00:54:00,800 --> 00:54:04,480
Speaker 1: and home against Middle Tennessee. So I'm certainly leaning over.

1240
00:54:04,880 --> 00:54:06,520
Speaker 1: This is a team that I picked a few spots

1241
00:54:06,600 --> 00:54:09,239
Speaker 1: last year. Unfortunately I got on the train too late

1242
00:54:09,320 --> 00:54:11,880
Speaker 1: after they had that little three game winning streak. Hopefully

1243
00:54:11,880 --> 00:54:13,840
Speaker 1: I can pick the right spots to back them. I

1244
00:54:14,040 --> 00:54:16,160
Speaker 1: like Jenkins a lot. He came from a very proud

1245
00:54:16,200 --> 00:54:18,480
Speaker 1: program in high school where he won so many games.

1246
00:54:18,680 --> 00:54:22,040
Speaker 1: He's been the established guy his entire life as a quarterback,

1247
00:54:22,280 --> 00:54:24,319
Speaker 1: so I think there's an opportunity for him to take

1248
00:54:24,320 --> 00:54:26,200
Speaker 1: a big step forward this year. As I said, if

1249
00:54:26,239 --> 00:54:28,640
Speaker 1: you can cut down on those turnover worthy throws, I

1250
00:54:28,760 --> 00:54:31,600
Speaker 1: know where are you on FIU A team that you

1251
00:54:31,640 --> 00:54:33,719
Speaker 1: know has been the butt of the jokes for many years.

1252
00:54:33,760 --> 00:54:36,200
Speaker 1: You know they don't have enough money for pads or jerseys,

1253
00:54:36,640 --> 00:54:38,360
Speaker 1: and you know they can get boat raced in a

1254
00:54:38,400 --> 00:54:40,800
Speaker 1: lot of games. But also they're still in South Florida.

1255
00:54:40,920 --> 00:54:44,279
Speaker 1: So this roster overall, I think speaks to their geography.

1256
00:54:44,480 --> 00:54:47,000
Speaker 1: They have some talent and at the quarterback pops and

1257
00:54:47,480 --> 00:54:49,239
Speaker 1: cut down on the turnovers. Is that going to be

1258
00:54:49,400 --> 00:54:51,279
Speaker 1: enough for them to get to five wins in a

1259
00:54:51,360 --> 00:54:52,719
Speaker 1: cash and over in your opinion.

1260
00:54:53,640 --> 00:54:55,239
Speaker 3: I'm not as bulls with them as you. I'm not

1261
00:54:55,760 --> 00:54:56,800
Speaker 3: as high on Jenkins.

1262
00:54:57,000 --> 00:54:59,520
Speaker 6: I think his turnover really plays are a massive concern,

1263
00:54:59,600 --> 00:55:01,240
Speaker 6: and I'm not so sure they're just going to magically

1264
00:55:01,280 --> 00:55:04,480
Speaker 6: go away. You know, finished the year eleven touchdowns, eleven picks.

1265
00:55:04,560 --> 00:55:07,160
Speaker 6: He needs to be much better. He loses Chris Mitchell

1266
00:55:07,160 --> 00:55:10,280
Speaker 6: as top receiver. They bring back most of their other pieces,

1267
00:55:10,440 --> 00:55:12,839
Speaker 6: but it's just a matter of are those pieces any good?

1268
00:55:13,560 --> 00:55:16,600
Speaker 6: You mentioned the defense just they manage just seventeen sacks

1269
00:55:16,680 --> 00:55:21,000
Speaker 6: all season. They create absolutely no havoc. So I'm just

1270
00:55:21,120 --> 00:55:24,640
Speaker 6: not super solo on them and mac Mike McIntyre has

1271
00:55:24,680 --> 00:55:28,120
Speaker 6: been a head coach for eleven seasons at three different

1272
00:55:28,160 --> 00:55:31,879
Speaker 6: schools and has managed just two winning seasons in his career.

1273
00:55:33,080 --> 00:55:33,839
Speaker 3: Is he a good coach.

1274
00:55:34,360 --> 00:55:37,719
Speaker 6: He really hasn't shown us anything that indicates that he is.

1275
00:55:38,040 --> 00:55:40,280
Speaker 6: So I'm not as high on them.

1276
00:55:40,520 --> 00:55:43,680
Speaker 3: As you are. Again and this conference anything happened. But yeah,

1277
00:55:43,680 --> 00:55:44,120
Speaker 3: I know it's a.

1278
00:55:44,120 --> 00:55:46,879
Speaker 5: Pass for me. Listen. I like this team. They're fun

1279
00:55:46,960 --> 00:55:50,239
Speaker 5: to watch. Keon Jenkins is a powder keg of good

1280
00:55:50,280 --> 00:55:52,080
Speaker 5: and a powder keg of bad. I mean, when you

1281
00:55:52,120 --> 00:55:54,840
Speaker 5: have seventeen big time throws and twenty two turnover worthy plays,

1282
00:55:55,840 --> 00:55:57,839
Speaker 5: it gets exciting and then it gets pretty lonely when

1283
00:55:57,840 --> 00:55:59,040
Speaker 5: you have a bet on him. I've felt that a

1284
00:55:59,080 --> 00:56:01,719
Speaker 5: couple times last year, especially that Bryant game. There's some

1285
00:56:01,800 --> 00:56:04,319
Speaker 5: consistency coming back to this offense. You know, David Yost

1286
00:56:04,360 --> 00:56:06,440
Speaker 5: has a good bit of it, and Keon Jenkins has

1287
00:56:07,000 --> 00:56:09,800
Speaker 5: more continuity with Eric Rivers at wide receiver, with his

1288
00:56:09,920 --> 00:56:13,440
Speaker 5: offensive line, with Shamari Lawrence. There's some continuity here where

1289
00:56:13,560 --> 00:56:15,279
Speaker 5: last year was just kind of like snap the ball

1290
00:56:15,400 --> 00:56:18,360
Speaker 5: and where's my route tree. I've never seen these guys before,

1291
00:56:18,480 --> 00:56:20,479
Speaker 5: so at least if Florida in National has that going

1292
00:56:21,160 --> 00:56:23,840
Speaker 5: the defensive side for job and do it, do it.

1293
00:56:23,960 --> 00:56:27,120
Speaker 5: The defensive coordinator not looking good here. Predicted to be

1294
00:56:27,200 --> 00:56:29,040
Speaker 5: one of the worst defensive lines one of the worst

1295
00:56:29,080 --> 00:56:33,160
Speaker 5: secondaries in this conference. They had zero havoc dead last

1296
00:56:33,200 --> 00:56:36,000
Speaker 5: and all the habit categories. Mike McIntyre's made it his

1297
00:56:36,160 --> 00:56:38,480
Speaker 5: point to go ahead and try to make this a

1298
00:56:38,600 --> 00:56:42,400
Speaker 5: more havoc Layden defense. Not really sure how you do that.

1299
00:56:42,600 --> 00:56:45,000
Speaker 5: You have about sixty percent coming back on that side

1300
00:56:45,000 --> 00:56:47,200
Speaker 5: of the ball. That's about mid fbs. So you're just

1301
00:56:47,280 --> 00:56:49,720
Speaker 5: going to teach an old dog how to strip balls

1302
00:56:49,800 --> 00:56:52,600
Speaker 5: and tackles for losses and PBUs and not sure. Now,

1303
00:56:52,640 --> 00:56:54,840
Speaker 5: the good news is Florida National doesn't play Western Kentucky,

1304
00:56:55,000 --> 00:56:57,800
Speaker 5: which would completely destroy them on the defensive line. And

1305
00:56:57,880 --> 00:56:59,839
Speaker 5: if Western Kentucky pass, it destroy him in the back

1306
00:56:59,880 --> 00:57:03,040
Speaker 5: end too. So when you look at the schedule, you say,

1307
00:57:03,080 --> 00:57:03,640
Speaker 5: can I get.

1308
00:57:03,520 --> 00:57:04,160
Speaker 4: Over four and a half?

1309
00:57:04,200 --> 00:57:07,040
Speaker 5: And I think you can because you have short favorite

1310
00:57:07,080 --> 00:57:09,680
Speaker 5: spots against Monmouth and law Tech. I think law Tech

1311
00:57:09,800 --> 00:57:12,640
Speaker 5: is really some problems this year. But then that's the

1312
00:57:12,680 --> 00:57:14,040
Speaker 5: only two wins you can count on. But can I

1313
00:57:14,120 --> 00:57:17,160
Speaker 5: get three? I have coin flips with Central Michigan at

1314
00:57:17,320 --> 00:57:20,520
Speaker 5: UTEP home against Sam Houston home against New Mexico State

1315
00:57:20,920 --> 00:57:23,480
Speaker 5: at Kennesaw home against Middle Tennessee.

1316
00:57:24,240 --> 00:57:26,400
Speaker 4: That's a lot of coin flips. So it's a lot of.

1317
00:57:26,440 --> 00:57:28,520
Speaker 5: Questions and you have to deep dive in where can

1318
00:57:28,600 --> 00:57:31,800
Speaker 5: Keyon Jenkins take, you know, where can he assert himself

1319
00:57:31,840 --> 00:57:33,480
Speaker 5: and not have a bunch of turnovers. And there's plenty

1320
00:57:33,520 --> 00:57:36,320
Speaker 5: of defenses that I just named, you know, like UTEP,

1321
00:57:36,680 --> 00:57:39,640
Speaker 5: Middle Tennessee, Kennesaw. Those are teams. I don't think their

1322
00:57:39,680 --> 00:57:42,080
Speaker 5: defenses can control what Jenkins wants to do with his weapons.

1323
00:57:42,160 --> 00:57:44,240
Speaker 5: So I do like over four and a half at

1324
00:57:44,320 --> 00:57:46,120
Speaker 5: plus one twenty. That allows you to have two of

1325
00:57:46,160 --> 00:57:48,560
Speaker 5: these coin flip games and a number of options to

1326
00:57:48,600 --> 00:57:50,560
Speaker 5: try to get over that with plenty of hedgerom because

1327
00:57:50,560 --> 00:57:54,919
Speaker 5: there's so many coin flips, we're talking minor nation.

1328
00:57:55,960 --> 00:57:59,120
Speaker 3: Out in the West Texas town of l Past.

1329
00:58:00,400 --> 00:58:04,560
Speaker 1: Picks up the UTEP Miners, one of the darlings of

1330
00:58:04,680 --> 00:58:05,520
Speaker 1: the group of five.

1331
00:58:05,640 --> 00:58:06,160
Speaker 4: Deep dive.

1332
00:58:06,280 --> 00:58:08,320
Speaker 1: We got sound drops, We got all kinds of fun

1333
00:58:08,400 --> 00:58:10,760
Speaker 1: things to say about those boys out in West Texas.

1334
00:58:11,160 --> 00:58:13,280
Speaker 1: They got themselves a new head coach three and nine

1335
00:58:13,360 --> 00:58:16,400
Speaker 1: last year, Dimmel gone two and six in conference. Scotty

1336
00:58:16,440 --> 00:58:18,800
Speaker 1: walden In from Austin, p a big time winner at

1337
00:58:18,840 --> 00:58:21,720
Speaker 1: the FCS level. Their win total set at four sixty

1338
00:58:21,800 --> 00:58:23,440
Speaker 1: to one to win the conference title, three inch one

1339
00:58:23,480 --> 00:58:25,960
Speaker 1: to make the playoff. Lots of new faces as Walden

1340
00:58:26,000 --> 00:58:29,000
Speaker 1: builds basically from scratch. Could be Cade McConnell, a quarterback,

1341
00:58:29,080 --> 00:58:31,880
Speaker 1: or Skyler Locklear, who's more of a dual threat his

1342
00:58:32,000 --> 00:58:34,640
Speaker 1: offenses at Austin p they slapped the average over thirty

1343
00:58:34,640 --> 00:58:37,040
Speaker 1: four points per game last season. Lookout for Jevin Jackson

1344
00:58:37,080 --> 00:58:41,880
Speaker 1: almost fourteen hundred yards last year with APSU, big offensive

1345
00:58:41,920 --> 00:58:43,960
Speaker 1: line block and form three starters over three hundred and

1346
00:58:44,040 --> 00:58:47,560
Speaker 1: ten pounds. They also add in this specialty position. They

1347
00:58:47,640 --> 00:58:50,760
Speaker 1: call it the minor back, a dual threat, run received position,

1348
00:58:51,080 --> 00:58:53,200
Speaker 1: kind of think about the old school like Percy Harvin

1349
00:58:53,280 --> 00:58:56,960
Speaker 1: with the Florida Gators jet sweeps bubble screens. He's five

1350
00:58:57,040 --> 00:58:59,600
Speaker 1: foot seven, He's a dynamo. Cam Thomas he's the one

1351
00:58:59,640 --> 00:59:01,480
Speaker 1: going to fill this role. S keep an eye out

1352
00:59:01,480 --> 00:59:03,760
Speaker 1: for the minor back. Secondary was the strength last year.

1353
00:59:03,800 --> 00:59:06,280
Speaker 1: They bring back Josiah Allen and welcome in Corey Chapman

1354
00:59:06,440 --> 00:59:08,640
Speaker 1: from Austin p who is a lot of buzz playing

1355
00:59:08,680 --> 00:59:11,400
Speaker 1: the spur position. He's going to be on some preseason

1356
00:59:11,520 --> 00:59:14,640
Speaker 1: lists for all conference in the CUSA. They'll need to

1357
00:59:14,720 --> 00:59:16,880
Speaker 1: hope that their new defensive line holds up because it

1358
00:59:17,000 --> 00:59:18,960
Speaker 1: did not last year. One hundred and twenty fifth against

1359
00:59:18,960 --> 00:59:22,040
Speaker 1: the run one hundred and thirteenth and tackling that is problematic.

1360
00:59:22,160 --> 00:59:24,920
Speaker 1: With a few teams with their offensive line really figured

1361
00:59:24,960 --> 00:59:28,080
Speaker 1: out in this conference and some quality running backs at

1362
00:59:28,160 --> 00:59:31,360
Speaker 1: Nebraska at Liberty early, they're going to look silly. Don't

1363
00:59:31,400 --> 00:59:33,439
Speaker 1: worry about that. Just go ahead and take a little

1364
00:59:33,480 --> 00:59:36,160
Speaker 1: added points in terms of the against the spread value

1365
00:59:36,200 --> 00:59:37,960
Speaker 1: that you're going to get if they lose by forty

1366
00:59:38,000 --> 00:59:40,960
Speaker 1: to those two teams. That's fine. But a closing slate

1367
00:59:41,040 --> 00:59:43,680
Speaker 1: in Conference USA. Conference USA play is what I have

1368
00:59:43,800 --> 00:59:47,240
Speaker 1: circled here. Middle Tennessee, Kanesaw and at New Mexico State

1369
00:59:47,280 --> 00:59:50,440
Speaker 1: could give them momentum into twenty twenty five. This is

1370
00:59:50,480 --> 00:59:52,560
Speaker 1: a pass. I just want to see what Scottie Walden

1371
00:59:52,600 --> 00:59:55,640
Speaker 1: looks like here in year zero for the Miners. But

1372
00:59:55,720 --> 00:59:57,520
Speaker 1: this is a team that I think should feel optimistic.

1373
00:59:57,600 --> 00:59:59,880
Speaker 1: I always like hiring people that run their own prob

1374
01:00:00,360 --> 01:00:03,560
Speaker 1: I'm not optimistic about coordinators who don't have had coaching

1375
01:00:03,640 --> 01:00:06,160
Speaker 1: experience moving down the G five level. I want somebody

1376
01:00:06,200 --> 01:00:08,200
Speaker 1: who's a grown up who knows how to handle alumni.

1377
01:00:08,560 --> 01:00:13,960
Speaker 1: The nil issues everything beyond just inside the lines on Saturdays.

1378
01:00:14,080 --> 01:00:16,120
Speaker 1: I think Scotty Walden is a great highre just maybe

1379
01:00:16,200 --> 01:00:16,640
Speaker 1: not this year.

1380
01:00:16,680 --> 01:00:17,240
Speaker 4: What are your thoughts?

1381
01:00:17,280 --> 01:00:17,600
Speaker 1: Call him?

1382
01:00:17,960 --> 01:00:20,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean this is Scotty Walden who immediately showed

1383
01:00:20,720 --> 01:00:23,240
Speaker 5: up into the student section of the basketball games, painted

1384
01:00:23,320 --> 01:00:25,240
Speaker 5: himself up and yelled as loud as he possibly could.

1385
01:00:25,400 --> 01:00:27,440
Speaker 5: I think there was a grand total of twenty miners

1386
01:00:28,240 --> 01:00:29,520
Speaker 5: in the student sestion there. But I mean, good for

1387
01:00:29,560 --> 01:00:31,200
Speaker 5: Scotty Walden. He's saying all the right things, he's doing

1388
01:00:31,200 --> 01:00:33,000
Speaker 5: all the right things. He's a program builder. He brought

1389
01:00:33,000 --> 01:00:36,600
Speaker 5: his defensive coordinator, JJ Clark over. Is this a year

1390
01:00:36,760 --> 01:00:40,000
Speaker 5: zero situation? I mean, I'm putting them at about twenty

1391
01:00:40,040 --> 01:00:42,440
Speaker 5: percent on offense thirty three percent on defense. Returning from

1392
01:00:42,440 --> 01:00:46,840
Speaker 5: an experience perspective, they well below mid average FBS numbers

1393
01:00:46,880 --> 01:00:49,600
Speaker 5: as far as experiments go. And the defense is just

1394
01:00:49,720 --> 01:00:52,840
Speaker 5: completely wiped on the defensive front seven. You know, and

1395
01:00:52,960 --> 01:00:54,440
Speaker 5: when you look at the players that are left, I

1396
01:00:54,520 --> 01:00:57,160
Speaker 5: go back to the value over replacement term. None of

1397
01:00:57,240 --> 01:01:00,800
Speaker 5: them are anything worth from a great perspective or from

1398
01:01:00,840 --> 01:01:03,240
Speaker 5: a talent, blue chip perspective or star rating. I should say,

1399
01:01:03,280 --> 01:01:06,840
Speaker 5: coming in nothing really sets up, and UTEP was absolutely

1400
01:01:06,960 --> 01:01:09,600
Speaker 5: horrific in defending the run. I don't think I could

1401
01:01:09,600 --> 01:01:11,360
Speaker 5: find a single stat that was like over one hundred

1402
01:01:11,360 --> 01:01:13,680
Speaker 5: and twenty fifth. They're pretty bad at defending the run.

1403
01:01:14,320 --> 01:01:16,680
Speaker 5: I think that's going to continue here. As far as

1404
01:01:16,760 --> 01:01:19,960
Speaker 5: their schedule goes, it's a coin flip game against Kennesaw

1405
01:01:20,000 --> 01:01:22,160
Speaker 5: State in southern Utah. They're just not going to be

1406
01:01:22,240 --> 01:01:24,760
Speaker 5: projected that high, and then they're gonna be short dogs,

1407
01:01:24,880 --> 01:01:27,560
Speaker 5: real short dogs against Sam Houston, FIU, LA Tech, and

1408
01:01:27,840 --> 01:01:31,080
Speaker 5: Middle Tennessee State. I do like the under four here.

1409
01:01:31,480 --> 01:01:33,400
Speaker 5: It's just I mean, Austin P just lost in the

1410
01:01:33,440 --> 01:01:36,720
Speaker 5: first round of the FCS playoffs, and Austoin P was

1411
01:01:36,760 --> 01:01:40,000
Speaker 5: a fringe top twenty five team. You just can't pick

1412
01:01:40,080 --> 01:01:42,320
Speaker 5: that up and sew it into Al Paso and say, well,

1413
01:01:42,360 --> 01:01:44,200
Speaker 5: I'm good enough to be one hundred and twenty third

1414
01:01:44,240 --> 01:01:46,600
Speaker 5: in FBS football. I just it's not gonna work like that.

1415
01:01:46,680 --> 01:01:48,320
Speaker 5: They're just trying to fill gaps, get it too deep,

1416
01:01:48,360 --> 01:01:50,920
Speaker 5: filled out numbers, taking a lot of steam. Maybe that's

1417
01:01:51,000 --> 01:01:53,240
Speaker 5: my fault. They opened up five. I drove up to

1418
01:01:53,320 --> 01:01:55,960
Speaker 5: Kansas to my graveyard, started whacking the miners like crazy.

1419
01:01:56,360 --> 01:01:58,680
Speaker 5: Down to four in the market. I think four is

1420
01:01:58,680 --> 01:01:59,960
Speaker 5: the last number you're going to go out. But I

1421
01:02:00,120 --> 01:02:02,720
Speaker 5: still think that this is a rebuild. To go back

1422
01:02:02,760 --> 01:02:04,880
Speaker 5: to what we said about Derek Mason, this is actually

1423
01:02:04,960 --> 01:02:08,000
Speaker 5: the team when you have a motivator like Scotty Walden

1424
01:02:08,040 --> 01:02:11,160
Speaker 5: who brings in everything that he had also p from

1425
01:02:11,280 --> 01:02:13,520
Speaker 5: culture in the locker room, from you know, how you

1426
01:02:13,600 --> 01:02:16,480
Speaker 5: handle your players. They'll start picking it up towards the

1427
01:02:16,560 --> 01:02:18,439
Speaker 5: end of October when you get through these midweek games

1428
01:02:18,480 --> 01:02:21,120
Speaker 5: and they're gonna be live at least if they're still

1429
01:02:21,120 --> 01:02:22,960
Speaker 5: playing hard. It's one of those teams that you look

1430
01:02:23,000 --> 01:02:24,760
Speaker 5: at the last three weeks in November and you're thinking,

1431
01:02:24,960 --> 01:02:28,040
Speaker 5: they're still playing hard, they're gonna snag one. So, you know,

1432
01:02:28,160 --> 01:02:30,400
Speaker 5: kind of reminds me of Sam Houston right last year, right,

1433
01:02:30,640 --> 01:02:32,960
Speaker 5: no winnable games, still playing as hard as they possibly can.

1434
01:02:33,080 --> 01:02:34,640
Speaker 5: That's what you're looking for here, and I think that

1435
01:02:34,720 --> 01:02:36,439
Speaker 5: fits you tips Bill, But I like under four.

1436
01:02:36,840 --> 01:02:38,880
Speaker 1: Are you going to take your pickaxe and swing at

1437
01:02:38,960 --> 01:02:42,040
Speaker 1: this win total Ianello or is it a pass for

1438
01:02:42,160 --> 01:02:42,960
Speaker 1: Texas Western?

1439
01:02:43,520 --> 01:02:44,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm going to pass on this.

1440
01:02:44,800 --> 01:02:46,720
Speaker 6: I think you know, Dan and demml getting fired was

1441
01:02:46,720 --> 01:02:49,280
Speaker 6: obviously a big positive for you, TEP, I think, But

1442
01:02:49,920 --> 01:02:52,200
Speaker 6: they also lost all their good players. They lost Hankins

1443
01:02:52,240 --> 01:02:54,560
Speaker 6: and Burgess, they lost Tyron Smith, they lost Kelly kri

1444
01:02:54,640 --> 01:02:57,720
Speaker 6: kit Akeriki, they lost Justin Meyers on the line, they

1445
01:02:57,800 --> 01:03:00,640
Speaker 6: lost Vaughan Hilton Neil on the defense and other pieces,

1446
01:03:01,240 --> 01:03:04,360
Speaker 6: and well, everything I read about Scottie Walden is he's

1447
01:03:04,600 --> 01:03:09,240
Speaker 6: just an absolute firecracker of energy, like big raw rock guy.

1448
01:03:09,320 --> 01:03:11,000
Speaker 6: So I don't hate Colin, you know, getting them motivated

1449
01:03:11,000 --> 01:03:13,440
Speaker 6: at the end. Here's the problem when you look at

1450
01:03:13,880 --> 01:03:15,720
Speaker 6: he's bringing in all his voice from Austin p But

1451
01:03:15,760 --> 01:03:19,240
Speaker 6: the problem is Skyl o'lockler five ten, running back, Javon

1452
01:03:19,320 --> 01:03:23,080
Speaker 6: Jackson five eight wide receivers, Trey Goodman five to eleven,

1453
01:03:23,240 --> 01:03:24,840
Speaker 6: one hundred and seventy five pounds.

1454
01:03:24,880 --> 01:03:27,720
Speaker 3: If it's windy, he's gonna fall over. Jayden sith.

1455
01:03:28,520 --> 01:03:34,000
Speaker 5: Jayden's that's one hundred seventy five pounds, all right.

1456
01:03:33,880 --> 01:03:36,960
Speaker 6: Go ahead, Jayden Smith five ten, one hundred ninety five pounds.

1457
01:03:37,120 --> 01:03:40,000
Speaker 6: Cam Thomas you mentioned him, okay, five seven, one hundred

1458
01:03:40,000 --> 01:03:43,120
Speaker 6: and seventy pounds. Like they're going to be super undersized

1459
01:03:43,400 --> 01:03:46,360
Speaker 6: across the board. Yeah, I just can't play a Windle here,

1460
01:03:46,440 --> 01:03:47,880
Speaker 6: there's just too much uncertainty for me.

1461
01:03:49,280 --> 01:03:50,959
Speaker 1: All right, Mitchell, if you can go ahead and clip

1462
01:03:51,000 --> 01:03:53,800
Speaker 1: Ianello saying that five ten, one hundred ninety pounds is

1463
01:03:53,960 --> 01:03:56,960
Speaker 1: really in good shape, it's underweight. I would love to

1464
01:03:57,000 --> 01:03:58,840
Speaker 1: play that next time I step on the scale, because

1465
01:03:59,000 --> 01:04:01,320
Speaker 1: I've been plumping up this offseason and I don't feel

1466
01:04:01,320 --> 01:04:03,040
Speaker 1: like one hundred and ninety pounds is all that spelt.

1467
01:04:03,080 --> 01:04:05,920
Speaker 1: But we are going to close with Kennesaw State, and

1468
01:04:06,480 --> 01:04:08,960
Speaker 1: I have no problem stumping for them, at least in

1469
01:04:09,120 --> 01:04:11,960
Speaker 1: terms of them being feisty against the spread. Here in

1470
01:04:12,080 --> 01:04:16,000
Speaker 1: year one of the FBS football Brian O'Hannon has been

1471
01:04:16,240 --> 01:04:19,760
Speaker 1: the FCS National Coach of the Year. He's been there

1472
01:04:19,800 --> 01:04:22,960
Speaker 1: coach since the program got off the ground in twenty fifteen. Yes,

1473
01:04:23,040 --> 01:04:25,720
Speaker 1: they went three and six last year, but similarly to

1474
01:04:25,880 --> 01:04:29,000
Speaker 1: Sam Houston State two years ago, they red shirted a

1475
01:04:29,040 --> 01:04:31,840
Speaker 1: lot of guys. They're saving guys, they're not burning, you know,

1476
01:04:32,040 --> 01:04:34,640
Speaker 1: years of eligibility. So it'll be interesting to see what

1477
01:04:34,760 --> 01:04:36,360
Speaker 1: they look like this year. With the win total set

1478
01:04:36,400 --> 01:04:38,800
Speaker 1: at two and a half, they're ineligible for you know,

1479
01:04:38,880 --> 01:04:40,960
Speaker 1: postseason play, so you don't have to worry about that

1480
01:04:41,080 --> 01:04:44,920
Speaker 1: future futures market. Let's get into some of the specifics here.

1481
01:04:45,680 --> 01:04:48,040
Speaker 1: Same head coach as I mentioned for their whole existence.

1482
01:04:48,120 --> 01:04:50,680
Speaker 1: By year three at the FCS level, he got into

1483
01:04:50,680 --> 01:04:53,120
Speaker 1: the quarterfinals and a top ten finish in the polls

1484
01:04:53,400 --> 01:04:56,080
Speaker 1: eleven and two and a fifth place finish in twenty eighteen.

1485
01:04:56,360 --> 01:05:00,040
Speaker 1: He won eleven games four times between twenty seventeen and

1486
01:05:00,160 --> 01:05:02,680
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one. This guy can coach. So why is

1487
01:05:02,680 --> 01:05:05,320
Speaker 1: everybody clowning the Auls. Well, they lost six games last year,

1488
01:05:05,360 --> 01:05:08,080
Speaker 1: but they lost by seven to Chattanooga, who's fourteenth in

1489
01:05:08,160 --> 01:05:10,520
Speaker 1: the final FCS poll, three to Furman, who is a

1490
01:05:10,560 --> 01:05:12,960
Speaker 1: top ten team, and three at sam Houston State, who

1491
01:05:13,000 --> 01:05:15,479
Speaker 1: was at the FBS level. Their defense was top thirty

1492
01:05:15,480 --> 01:05:17,400
Speaker 1: in the FCS against both the run and the pass.

1493
01:05:17,680 --> 01:05:20,600
Speaker 1: And now the headline he limited several players who are

1494
01:05:20,600 --> 01:05:22,960
Speaker 1: going to come back, as I mentioned into his too

1495
01:05:23,040 --> 01:05:25,240
Speaker 1: deep to be able to give them some depth so

1496
01:05:25,360 --> 01:05:28,840
Speaker 1: they don't absolutely get decimated and deal with attrition throughout

1497
01:05:28,880 --> 01:05:32,040
Speaker 1: the season. They run, in my opinion, the perfect offense

1498
01:05:32,240 --> 01:05:35,000
Speaker 1: to be an underdog. They run the triple option. Bohannon's

1499
01:05:35,040 --> 01:05:37,160
Speaker 1: offense over the last nine seasons have thrown the ball

1500
01:05:37,200 --> 01:05:40,200
Speaker 1: on average just nineteen point three percent of the time.

1501
01:05:40,480 --> 01:05:43,520
Speaker 1: So close your eyes, picture a service academy. And that's

1502
01:05:43,560 --> 01:05:45,600
Speaker 1: what makes it more palatable to be able to say

1503
01:05:45,840 --> 01:05:48,880
Speaker 1: they don't have any returning quarterbacks with experienced throwing the football.

1504
01:05:49,080 --> 01:05:52,560
Speaker 1: Eleven career pass attempts across all of their quarterbacks. I

1505
01:05:52,640 --> 01:05:54,720
Speaker 1: don't care as deeply about that as I would if

1506
01:05:54,720 --> 01:05:57,200
Speaker 1: they were running an air raid. Michael Benefield is their

1507
01:05:57,240 --> 01:05:59,240
Speaker 1: top back. He's got plenty of pops six point three

1508
01:05:59,280 --> 01:06:02,240
Speaker 1: yards per carry. As I said, I think people are

1509
01:06:02,320 --> 01:06:04,479
Speaker 1: sleeping on them because they're gonna look at their brand

1510
01:06:04,520 --> 01:06:06,720
Speaker 1: new Every magazine's got them one hundred and thirty fourth

1511
01:06:06,960 --> 01:06:09,600
Speaker 1: in terms of the rankings. They don't have the quarterback play.

1512
01:06:10,040 --> 01:06:12,800
Speaker 1: But here's the thing. They finished fifth in turnover margin

1513
01:06:12,920 --> 01:06:15,360
Speaker 1: last season, and that is an element that I think

1514
01:06:15,400 --> 01:06:18,640
Speaker 1: can carry over year to year. They prioritize ball security.

1515
01:06:18,800 --> 01:06:20,720
Speaker 1: They're going to play keep away and that's why I

1516
01:06:20,800 --> 01:06:23,120
Speaker 1: have them circle as and against the spread team. Their

1517
01:06:23,160 --> 01:06:25,720
Speaker 1: defense has sneaky experience for a unit that only returns

1518
01:06:25,760 --> 01:06:27,800
Speaker 1: three stars, as I mentioned, because they're hiding some of

1519
01:06:27,840 --> 01:06:31,160
Speaker 1: those guys with the red shirt. Finally, look at Adam

1520
01:06:31,200 --> 01:06:33,400
Speaker 1: Watkins to be really good on the edge. That's, you know,

1521
01:06:33,680 --> 01:06:35,400
Speaker 1: a guy I want to circle on this team. The

1522
01:06:35,440 --> 01:06:38,960
Speaker 1: schedule at San Jose State UT Martin against the Skyhawks,

1523
01:06:39,040 --> 01:06:41,640
Speaker 1: at UTEP, SAM Houston against FIU.

1524
01:06:42,400 --> 01:06:44,280
Speaker 4: Are there three wins there? I don't know.

1525
01:06:44,480 --> 01:06:46,240
Speaker 1: That's not for me to say I'm going to pass,

1526
01:06:46,560 --> 01:06:48,320
Speaker 1: but I am going to play them against the spread

1527
01:06:48,360 --> 01:06:50,480
Speaker 1: plenty of times because people are going to be scrolling

1528
01:06:50,520 --> 01:06:52,840
Speaker 1: through their apps. These casuals are gonna say I've never

1529
01:06:52,880 --> 01:06:54,520
Speaker 1: heard of kind of saw State. I'm just gonna fade

1530
01:06:54,520 --> 01:06:57,400
Speaker 1: them automatically. I can't wait for them to have a

1531
01:06:57,520 --> 01:07:00,360
Speaker 1: drive that's nine minutes long where they make a seventeen

1532
01:07:00,440 --> 01:07:03,040
Speaker 1: yard field goal at the goal line, and that's enough

1533
01:07:03,080 --> 01:07:05,480
Speaker 1: to cover some of these spreads. Sol, I'll go to

1534
01:07:05,560 --> 01:07:07,840
Speaker 1: you first. I know it is Yeoman's work to go

1535
01:07:07,920 --> 01:07:10,440
Speaker 1: through the very bottom of G five lands and preview

1536
01:07:10,480 --> 01:07:12,800
Speaker 1: some of these teams. But I got myself fired up

1537
01:07:12,800 --> 01:07:14,840
Speaker 1: because I was just sick of the slander for the Awls.

1538
01:07:14,920 --> 01:07:17,400
Speaker 1: Let's get some excitement for a team moving up to FBS.

1539
01:07:18,280 --> 01:07:19,640
Speaker 3: I don't know how much excitement I'm gonna bring.

1540
01:07:20,040 --> 01:07:22,320
Speaker 6: I'm just I think it's just it's it's just a

1541
01:07:22,400 --> 01:07:24,560
Speaker 6: big fat question mark because you know, you mentioned them

1542
01:07:24,640 --> 01:07:27,480
Speaker 6: red shirting a bunch of guys. You look at Davis Bryson,

1543
01:07:27,520 --> 01:07:29,720
Speaker 6: you just back to be their starting quarterback. Yeah, he

1544
01:07:29,800 --> 01:07:32,360
Speaker 6: made one start last season. He was oho for six passing,

1545
01:07:32,760 --> 01:07:34,440
Speaker 6: and whether he's going to pass a lot or not, ohver,

1546
01:07:34,520 --> 01:07:35,120
Speaker 6: six is not good.

1547
01:07:35,160 --> 01:07:36,600
Speaker 1: If you're gonna he's not going to pass a lot,

1548
01:07:36,640 --> 01:07:37,000
Speaker 1: I'm gonna.

1549
01:07:37,000 --> 01:07:38,480
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go ahead and ruin the surprise there.

1550
01:07:38,480 --> 01:07:38,960
Speaker 5: They're not gonna.

1551
01:07:39,160 --> 01:07:41,080
Speaker 6: But if he's gonna, if he's gonna throw six passes,

1552
01:07:41,120 --> 01:07:43,320
Speaker 6: I'd prefermed he complete at least three of them. He

1553
01:07:43,480 --> 01:07:45,400
Speaker 6: was two of eleven passing on the season for fifty

1554
01:07:45,440 --> 01:07:47,600
Speaker 6: three yards. So yeah, I'm not saying eleven is a

1555
01:07:47,640 --> 01:07:50,160
Speaker 6: lot of pass attempts, but two is even is even

1556
01:07:50,240 --> 01:07:52,880
Speaker 6: fewer completions. If you're gonna have eleven passes, let's go

1557
01:07:52,880 --> 01:07:55,800
Speaker 6: ahead and complete seven of them. So you mentioned the schedule.

1558
01:07:55,920 --> 01:07:59,480
Speaker 6: They start at UTSA, then they're home against Louisiana, then

1559
01:07:59,560 --> 01:08:02,320
Speaker 6: at San know, they stay they play Liberty, they play

1560
01:08:02,360 --> 01:08:05,120
Speaker 6: Western Kentucky, they play Jacksonville State, they play Sam Houston,

1561
01:08:05,200 --> 01:08:07,280
Speaker 6: they play all the top teams in the conference.

1562
01:08:08,160 --> 01:08:11,040
Speaker 3: So I'm nervous when you when you look at.

1563
01:08:10,960 --> 01:08:12,560
Speaker 6: You know, yeah, they red shirt a bunch of guys.

1564
01:08:12,720 --> 01:08:15,400
Speaker 6: We saw that work for Jacksonville State and not work

1565
01:08:15,400 --> 01:08:19,160
Speaker 6: at all for Sam Houston. So they're gonna win, you

1566
01:08:19,240 --> 01:08:20,720
Speaker 6: know that, give them the winninggainst u TM are in.

1567
01:08:21,160 --> 01:08:24,040
Speaker 6: Maybe they pull off one conference upset against UTEP or

1568
01:08:24,120 --> 01:08:26,360
Speaker 6: something over two and a half, you're gonna need to

1569
01:08:26,520 --> 01:08:29,280
Speaker 6: pull two upsets off. I don't know that I can

1570
01:08:29,400 --> 01:08:31,280
Speaker 6: kind of bet on that. So they're just a big

1571
01:08:31,400 --> 01:08:34,000
Speaker 6: fat wait and see and hope they hope you see

1572
01:08:34,000 --> 01:08:35,360
Speaker 6: what Sam Houston. Hope they get better at the end

1573
01:08:35,360 --> 01:08:37,120
Speaker 6: of the year. But they're big stay away from me.

1574
01:08:37,960 --> 01:08:40,960
Speaker 4: The floor is yours, Colin. Can you pump some juice

1575
01:08:41,200 --> 01:08:41,839
Speaker 4: into KEMPISA.

1576
01:08:42,280 --> 01:08:42,479
Speaker 7: Yeah.

1577
01:08:42,520 --> 01:08:44,799
Speaker 5: I mean there's no real spot here on this schedule

1578
01:08:44,840 --> 01:08:46,479
Speaker 5: where they're going to be a favorite and they're gonna

1579
01:08:46,479 --> 01:08:48,240
Speaker 5: be able to say, oh, yep, that's a win. Because

1580
01:08:48,240 --> 01:08:50,600
Speaker 5: you're at a coin flip against the UT Martin Skyhawks

1581
01:08:51,240 --> 01:08:53,320
Speaker 5: and then you're a short dog on the road twice

1582
01:08:53,439 --> 01:08:55,560
Speaker 5: at UTEP and at law at Tech. We don't know

1583
01:08:55,560 --> 01:08:57,559
Speaker 5: what's happened with the coaching situation there, but still that's

1584
01:08:57,600 --> 01:08:59,680
Speaker 5: it's it's gonna be tough to get over, and then

1585
01:08:59,720 --> 01:09:02,479
Speaker 5: you have home game against FIU that could be winnable.

1586
01:09:02,960 --> 01:09:05,400
Speaker 5: I'm not sure because your defense has what might be

1587
01:09:05,520 --> 01:09:07,880
Speaker 5: the worst secondary in the conference, and that's where exactly

1588
01:09:07,880 --> 01:09:10,160
Speaker 5: where FYU is going to want to attack you. So

1589
01:09:10,400 --> 01:09:12,559
Speaker 5: it is a really tough schedule for them to come into.

1590
01:09:13,120 --> 01:09:15,599
Speaker 5: Much like Sam Houston, they held a lot of guys back,

1591
01:09:15,640 --> 01:09:17,200
Speaker 5: They red shirted a lot of guys to come in

1592
01:09:17,320 --> 01:09:19,680
Speaker 5: and try to play. There was some limited action. I

1593
01:09:19,720 --> 01:09:23,160
Speaker 5: think their quarterback Davis Brison's going to be there. You know,

1594
01:09:23,400 --> 01:09:27,040
Speaker 5: there's other players Michael Benefield, Gabriel Bernardot wide receiver, guard

1595
01:09:27,120 --> 01:09:29,200
Speaker 5: Ethan Newman, and they have some pieces that have been

1596
01:09:29,240 --> 01:09:31,040
Speaker 5: good for them. But I go back to the fact that,

1597
01:09:31,280 --> 01:09:33,200
Speaker 5: like I just don't think you can go from being

1598
01:09:33,240 --> 01:09:36,320
Speaker 5: a triple option for nine years of your existence, all

1599
01:09:36,439 --> 01:09:38,479
Speaker 5: under Brian Bohanna, by the way, the head coach, and

1600
01:09:38,600 --> 01:09:40,720
Speaker 5: then just last year, go ahead and say, well, I'm

1601
01:09:40,760 --> 01:09:42,920
Speaker 5: gonna red shirt the entire team and I'm gonna move

1602
01:09:42,920 --> 01:09:46,360
Speaker 5: this from triple to a pro style pistol. So these

1603
01:09:46,400 --> 01:09:48,439
Speaker 5: players that didn't get to play just kind of practice

1604
01:09:48,479 --> 01:09:49,920
Speaker 5: in the system, are they going to be ready for this,

1605
01:09:50,120 --> 01:09:52,320
Speaker 5: like at a live level in a conference upgrade. I'm

1606
01:09:52,360 --> 01:09:54,559
Speaker 5: not really sure about that. Like I said, the secondary

1607
01:09:54,640 --> 01:09:56,120
Speaker 5: is in big trouble for any team that wants to

1608
01:09:56,160 --> 01:09:58,320
Speaker 5: pass against them. And then you go and look at

1609
01:09:58,320 --> 01:10:00,040
Speaker 5: who they want to play. Like I said, fu On

1610
01:10:00,160 --> 01:10:01,919
Speaker 5: Jenkins is going to want to get into this backfield.

1611
01:10:02,280 --> 01:10:04,920
Speaker 5: Latch can't protect a quarterback, you can't really throw deep.

1612
01:10:04,960 --> 01:10:06,280
Speaker 5: But we'll see. I think under two and a half

1613
01:10:06,360 --> 01:10:08,360
Speaker 5: is definitely the play I projected at two point zero.

1614
01:10:08,800 --> 01:10:13,400
Speaker 5: Welcome the Owls to the Conference USA, but I think

1615
01:10:13,439 --> 01:10:15,080
Speaker 5: this is still a working prob. Even if they've been

1616
01:10:15,160 --> 01:10:17,320
Speaker 5: in Conference USA last year. I still think this is

1617
01:10:17,320 --> 01:10:19,840
Speaker 5: a work in progress because this is probably the worst

1618
01:10:19,920 --> 01:10:22,639
Speaker 5: quarterback and worst wide receiver group that is in the conference.

1619
01:10:24,520 --> 01:10:26,719
Speaker 1: All Right, we go from the bottom of one conference

1620
01:10:26,840 --> 01:10:29,320
Speaker 1: to two teams that don't have conferences at all, the

1621
01:10:29,720 --> 01:10:31,519
Speaker 1: lone independence outside of Notre Dame.

1622
01:10:31,560 --> 01:10:32,519
Speaker 4: That's UMass and Yukon.

1623
01:10:32,560 --> 01:10:35,080
Speaker 1: Will start with the minute Men three to nine last year.

1624
01:10:35,439 --> 01:10:37,839
Speaker 1: Don Brown on year eight as their head coach. Overall,

1625
01:10:38,000 --> 01:10:41,280
Speaker 1: this is his second stint with UMass. He's been here

1626
01:10:41,320 --> 01:10:43,840
Speaker 1: since twenty twenty two. In the second go around, their

1627
01:10:43,840 --> 01:10:45,840
Speaker 1: win total set at three and a half three hundred

1628
01:10:45,920 --> 01:10:48,960
Speaker 1: to one to make the College Football Playoff. Sixth year

1629
01:10:49,120 --> 01:10:53,360
Speaker 1: of college football action for Tyson Pumachan. He flashes and

1630
01:10:53,439 --> 01:10:56,320
Speaker 1: then he disappoints. After a great opener against the Mexico State,

1631
01:10:56,320 --> 01:10:58,880
Speaker 1: which I mean talk about a turn refer in Mexico

1632
01:10:58,960 --> 01:11:00,680
Speaker 1: State when they lost to UMass stuck. He would not

1633
01:11:00,840 --> 01:11:03,080
Speaker 1: let me hear the end of it After that, though,

1634
01:11:03,160 --> 01:11:06,439
Speaker 1: Pumachon pretty awful last year. Offensive line needs to be rebuilt,

1635
01:11:06,479 --> 01:11:09,559
Speaker 1: and his top weapon, Kroon Adams is off to Michigan

1636
01:11:09,600 --> 01:11:12,479
Speaker 1: State to serve as a backup running back after over

1637
01:11:12,560 --> 01:11:15,200
Speaker 1: eleven hundred yards rushing in twelve tds last season. Now

1638
01:11:16,040 --> 01:11:18,799
Speaker 1: Shane Montgomery in as the OC. He likes to focus

1639
01:11:18,840 --> 01:11:21,479
Speaker 1: on one running back and one wide receiver. The running

1640
01:11:21,479 --> 01:11:23,880
Speaker 1: back room is thin, but Anthony Simpson is back at

1641
01:11:23,920 --> 01:11:28,400
Speaker 1: wide receiver as his former Clemson Tiger Frank Ladson. Here's

1642
01:11:28,520 --> 01:11:31,080
Speaker 1: where if I need to talk myself into some optimism.

1643
01:11:31,520 --> 01:11:35,160
Speaker 1: If Ahmad Haston gets a chance at quarterback, I'm more

1644
01:11:35,320 --> 01:11:38,160
Speaker 1: interested in ums so former's three star he got limited

1645
01:11:38,200 --> 01:11:40,439
Speaker 1: action without burning his red shirt last season. I could

1646
01:11:40,479 --> 01:11:43,040
Speaker 1: see this offense surprising a bit if they move away

1647
01:11:43,040 --> 01:11:45,960
Speaker 1: from Pumachan defense gave up almost thirty eight points per

1648
01:11:46,000 --> 01:11:48,200
Speaker 1: game last year. I know that Don Brown comes from

1649
01:11:48,240 --> 01:11:51,280
Speaker 1: a rich tradition of calling some great defenses doctor blitz

1650
01:11:51,439 --> 01:11:52,320
Speaker 1: getting after people.

1651
01:11:52,840 --> 01:11:53,880
Speaker 4: It's just not there.

1652
01:11:54,040 --> 01:11:57,400
Speaker 1: I guess he just does not have the schematic wizardry

1653
01:11:57,680 --> 01:11:59,479
Speaker 1: to be able to make up for the lack of

1654
01:11:59,560 --> 01:12:01,320
Speaker 1: athlete on his starting defense.

1655
01:12:03,240 --> 01:12:07,120
Speaker 7: Solve your problems with aggression. Okay, sit there and go, oh,

1656
01:12:07,200 --> 01:12:09,240
Speaker 7: we're gonna read this poll and a run up the

1657
01:12:09,479 --> 01:12:09,840
Speaker 7: fuck that.

1658
01:12:10,600 --> 01:12:13,320
Speaker 1: Let's go the SECONDARYA has experienced, but they have to

1659
01:12:13,360 --> 01:12:15,519
Speaker 1: fix the run defense, which gave up two hundred and

1660
01:12:15,560 --> 01:12:16,960
Speaker 1: twenty rushing yards per game.

1661
01:12:17,040 --> 01:12:17,879
Speaker 4: It's just horrific.

1662
01:12:18,400 --> 01:12:21,360
Speaker 1: The schedule, Let's look at possible wins. If everything goes right,

1663
01:12:21,479 --> 01:12:25,680
Speaker 1: Eastern Michigan at Buffalo, certainly Central Connecticut State Wagner, so

1664
01:12:25,720 --> 01:12:27,120
Speaker 1: you get two FCS.

1665
01:12:26,800 --> 01:12:28,080
Speaker 4: Teams and then Yukon.

1666
01:12:28,520 --> 01:12:32,320
Speaker 1: But at three and a half, basically I need two

1667
01:12:32,439 --> 01:12:36,160
Speaker 1: wins between Eastern at Buffalo and Yukon. Like I said,

1668
01:12:36,400 --> 01:12:38,639
Speaker 1: if Haston gets put in, then all of a sudden,

1669
01:12:38,640 --> 01:12:40,519
Speaker 1: I'm more interested on a week by week basis to

1670
01:12:40,560 --> 01:12:43,200
Speaker 1: take the points just because it's something new. I know

1671
01:12:43,360 --> 01:12:46,599
Speaker 1: exactly what I'm getting from Pumachan. I'll go to you first, Colin.

1672
01:12:46,800 --> 01:12:48,360
Speaker 1: I know this isn't a team that your race to

1673
01:12:48,400 --> 01:12:50,880
Speaker 1: the window necessarily to bet every single week like Stucky

1674
01:12:50,920 --> 01:12:52,040
Speaker 1: did at times last year.

1675
01:12:52,120 --> 01:12:53,599
Speaker 4: But where are you on the mini men?

1676
01:12:54,080 --> 01:12:55,920
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm definitely not gonna take a season win total.

1677
01:12:55,960 --> 01:12:57,679
Speaker 5: I project them just over that three and a half

1678
01:12:57,720 --> 01:12:59,840
Speaker 5: that they have out there. And when you look at

1679
01:12:59,840 --> 01:13:02,120
Speaker 5: this schedule, it's just too many coin flips. Like you're

1680
01:13:02,120 --> 01:13:04,080
Speaker 5: gonna give them the Wagner game, they should be favorites

1681
01:13:04,120 --> 01:13:06,000
Speaker 5: by twenty nine points off of a bye week. Way

1682
01:13:06,040 --> 01:13:08,360
Speaker 5: to use your one bye week against Wagner could have

1683
01:13:08,400 --> 01:13:11,040
Speaker 5: come in a better spot. But you know you're gonna

1684
01:13:11,080 --> 01:13:14,200
Speaker 5: need two weeks off after Missouri comes to Amherst, Like

1685
01:13:14,560 --> 01:13:16,320
Speaker 5: how I still think we're all asking, Like how an

1686
01:13:16,360 --> 01:13:19,160
Speaker 5: ad agreed for Missouri to go do that? Like what's

1687
01:13:19,160 --> 01:13:21,720
Speaker 5: the payout? Does Missouri get paid to do that? Sonya?

1688
01:13:22,160 --> 01:13:24,519
Speaker 5: But you Mass, you know they have the two games

1689
01:13:24,560 --> 01:13:27,559
Speaker 5: that they need from a coin flip perspective. Buffalo, Well,

1690
01:13:27,560 --> 01:13:29,400
Speaker 5: they're going to be on back to back travel from Toledo,

1691
01:13:29,479 --> 01:13:31,439
Speaker 5: U Mass will be going into Buffalo, So that's a

1692
01:13:31,479 --> 01:13:34,040
Speaker 5: bad scenario. They start off with Eastern Michigan at start

1693
01:13:34,040 --> 01:13:35,680
Speaker 5: of the year, that's a complete coin flip game, and

1694
01:13:35,760 --> 01:13:38,280
Speaker 5: then at the very end of the season, Yukon comes

1695
01:13:38,320 --> 01:13:40,320
Speaker 5: off back to back travel to come to play U. Mass.

1696
01:13:40,400 --> 01:13:44,759
Speaker 5: But there's just too many within three point projection field

1697
01:13:44,800 --> 01:13:50,080
Speaker 5: goal games against Yukon, Eastern Michigan, Buffalo. It's just too

1698
01:13:50,120 --> 01:13:52,040
Speaker 5: many when you consider Wagner's a win. So I am

1699
01:13:52,080 --> 01:13:54,560
Speaker 5: staying away from this team completely while they scrape the

1700
01:13:54,600 --> 01:13:59,519
Speaker 5: money playing Missouri, who else, Mississippi State, Georgia. Yeah. U

1701
01:13:59,600 --> 01:14:02,080
Speaker 5: Mass is somehow split between the MAC and the SEC.

1702
01:14:02,200 --> 01:14:03,559
Speaker 5: They should just have an entry in both.

1703
01:14:04,000 --> 01:14:04,760
Speaker 3: I don't have a take.

1704
01:14:04,760 --> 01:14:06,920
Speaker 6: I'm still not playing in a UMass over you look

1705
01:14:06,960 --> 01:14:08,479
Speaker 6: at I don't know how Puma Chohan is still there.

1706
01:14:08,560 --> 01:14:10,760
Speaker 6: I feel he's been then he started Clumbson. I feel

1707
01:14:10,760 --> 01:14:12,240
Speaker 6: he's been in college football for like nine years.

1708
01:14:12,680 --> 01:14:14,519
Speaker 4: He did six years of college football for him.

1709
01:14:15,000 --> 01:14:17,760
Speaker 6: Yeah, obviously I'm gonna need them to lose the last

1710
01:14:17,800 --> 01:14:19,600
Speaker 6: game of the year for my win total over, so

1711
01:14:19,720 --> 01:14:20,920
Speaker 6: we'll transition into that one.

1712
01:14:22,200 --> 01:14:22,479
Speaker 5: All right.

1713
01:14:22,560 --> 01:14:24,559
Speaker 1: Let's look at the Yukon Huskies three and nine last

1714
01:14:24,680 --> 01:14:27,040
Speaker 1: year going into year three of Jim Mora. Their win

1715
01:14:27,080 --> 01:14:29,040
Speaker 1: total set at four and a half three hundred to one,

1716
01:14:29,160 --> 01:14:30,720
Speaker 1: should be three thousand to one.

1717
01:14:30,840 --> 01:14:32,080
Speaker 4: Three million to one. Doesn't matter.

1718
01:14:32,360 --> 01:14:34,320
Speaker 1: Huskies are not going to be competing with the likes

1719
01:14:34,439 --> 01:14:36,920
Speaker 1: of Georgia and Ohio State in the college.

1720
01:14:36,640 --> 01:14:37,360
Speaker 4: Foot ball playoff.

1721
01:14:37,720 --> 01:14:40,040
Speaker 1: Let's start with the offense negative five point five and

1722
01:14:40,120 --> 01:14:42,559
Speaker 1: the tarp interior line is a rebuild. New full time

1723
01:14:42,600 --> 01:14:46,160
Speaker 1: starter quarterback, likely Joe Fagnano, who has experience. He got

1724
01:14:46,240 --> 01:14:49,639
Speaker 1: hurt last year, so not coming in you know, absolutely bare,

1725
01:14:50,080 --> 01:14:52,960
Speaker 1: but obviously you would like a better situation.

1726
01:14:52,560 --> 01:14:53,479
Speaker 4: In your quarterback room.

1727
01:14:53,760 --> 01:14:57,599
Speaker 1: Running back room has experience receivers TJ. Sheffield from Purdue

1728
01:14:57,640 --> 01:15:02,040
Speaker 1: and Skylar Bell from Wiscon and do offer upside if

1729
01:15:02,080 --> 01:15:05,200
Speaker 1: the quarterback can get protection this year. Defense took a

1730
01:15:05,320 --> 01:15:07,639
Speaker 1: big step back last year, especially against the pass. Only

1731
01:15:07,720 --> 01:15:10,720
Speaker 1: one returning starter in the secondary. Let's look at a

1732
01:15:11,080 --> 01:15:13,439
Speaker 1: tiny bit of reasons for optimism. Yes, three and nine

1733
01:15:13,560 --> 01:15:15,680
Speaker 1: was a gut punch off of a competitive year in

1734
01:15:15,800 --> 01:15:16,840
Speaker 1: year one, which in Mora.

1735
01:15:17,160 --> 01:15:18,559
Speaker 4: But let's look at some of the losses.

1736
01:15:18,960 --> 01:15:22,080
Speaker 1: Ten point loss to NC State, touchdown loss to FIU,

1737
01:15:22,400 --> 01:15:25,200
Speaker 1: one point loss to Utah State, three point loss to

1738
01:15:25,320 --> 01:15:29,000
Speaker 1: South Florida, seven point loss to BC, and they upset

1739
01:15:29,120 --> 01:15:31,800
Speaker 1: Rice on the road. So I mean, if things go

1740
01:15:31,880 --> 01:15:33,880
Speaker 1: a little bit differently, they probably get to five wins

1741
01:15:33,960 --> 01:15:36,240
Speaker 1: last year. I think that puts them in a totally

1742
01:15:36,320 --> 01:15:38,320
Speaker 1: different light. And when you look at the winnable games

1743
01:15:38,600 --> 01:15:42,000
Speaker 1: on the schedule marymack Fau Buffalo Temple, Rice, Georgia State

1744
01:15:42,200 --> 01:15:45,439
Speaker 1: at uab at UMass, I wouldn't be shocks if they

1745
01:15:45,560 --> 01:15:49,040
Speaker 1: won let's say five of those games. There's a chance

1746
01:15:49,240 --> 01:15:52,439
Speaker 1: if everything works offensively. I really like what they did

1747
01:15:52,720 --> 01:15:54,840
Speaker 1: in the portal at wide receivers, so if they get

1748
01:15:54,880 --> 01:15:57,000
Speaker 1: a little bit better in that regard, I don't know.

1749
01:15:57,080 --> 01:15:59,120
Speaker 1: Jim Moore is one of those coaches that surprised me

1750
01:15:59,200 --> 01:16:01,200
Speaker 1: in year one. I think they were snake bit a

1751
01:16:01,280 --> 01:16:03,960
Speaker 1: bit last year. So if I was forced to go

1752
01:16:04,040 --> 01:16:05,880
Speaker 1: with the win total here, which I'm not going to play,

1753
01:16:05,960 --> 01:16:07,760
Speaker 1: but I would go over the four and a half,

1754
01:16:08,400 --> 01:16:10,200
Speaker 1: They're not going to be outclassed in a whole bunch

1755
01:16:10,280 --> 01:16:12,720
Speaker 1: of these games, and almost all of them are at home,

1756
01:16:12,880 --> 01:16:13,920
Speaker 1: all these coin flip games.

1757
01:16:13,960 --> 01:16:16,120
Speaker 4: So that's it for me on Yukon.

1758
01:16:16,360 --> 01:16:18,400
Speaker 1: That's as much optimism as I can squeeze out of

1759
01:16:18,439 --> 01:16:20,280
Speaker 1: the rag here for the Independence, what do you think

1760
01:16:20,320 --> 01:16:20,559
Speaker 1: call them?

1761
01:16:21,240 --> 01:16:23,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't see any way that they're getting over

1762
01:16:23,080 --> 01:16:25,120
Speaker 5: this win total when you look at the projected spreads

1763
01:16:25,160 --> 01:16:27,160
Speaker 5: that they're coming around. I mean, they're going to be

1764
01:16:27,200 --> 01:16:29,360
Speaker 5: an underdog to Florida Atlantic at home. After that, you

1765
01:16:29,400 --> 01:16:31,640
Speaker 5: finally get your first favorite spot against Buffalo, who's on

1766
01:16:31,720 --> 01:16:33,760
Speaker 5: back to back. Let's say that they win that, then

1767
01:16:33,800 --> 01:16:35,719
Speaker 5: they're going to be favored over Temple. I think Temple

1768
01:16:35,960 --> 01:16:38,160
Speaker 5: is the worst team in FBS football, So sure there

1769
01:16:38,280 --> 01:16:40,800
Speaker 5: could be two wins right there, three to oher at

1770
01:16:40,840 --> 01:16:42,840
Speaker 5: best against those three teams, and then when you go down,

1771
01:16:43,160 --> 01:16:45,240
Speaker 5: you're going to be a touchdown underdog to Georgia State

1772
01:16:45,680 --> 01:16:47,760
Speaker 5: and then the all important UMass game at the end.

1773
01:16:47,800 --> 01:16:49,439
Speaker 5: But you have to have all of these and where

1774
01:16:49,439 --> 01:16:52,439
Speaker 5: you're a short dog, short fave or the coin flip

1775
01:16:52,520 --> 01:16:55,799
Speaker 5: at the end. And we're talking about mid average FBS

1776
01:16:55,920 --> 01:16:59,840
Speaker 5: returning production here seventy four percent on offense, seventy percent

1777
01:16:59,880 --> 01:17:03,240
Speaker 5: on offense sixty five percent. They were horrific and defensive

1778
01:17:03,280 --> 01:17:06,160
Speaker 5: success rate. I don't see any improvement that was some

1779
01:17:06,240 --> 01:17:10,240
Speaker 5: of the pieces that they've got in. There's nothing on

1780
01:17:10,320 --> 01:17:12,640
Speaker 5: this schedule and there's nothing with this team. With what

1781
01:17:12,760 --> 01:17:14,640
Speaker 5: they have at certain positions, it says that they're going

1782
01:17:14,680 --> 01:17:16,479
Speaker 5: to be able to compete here. So I projected three

1783
01:17:16,520 --> 01:17:18,760
Speaker 5: point eight. I am not running out to throw money

1784
01:17:18,800 --> 01:17:19,439
Speaker 5: on them. Whatsoever.

1785
01:17:20,760 --> 01:17:22,280
Speaker 4: I'll run, I'll run out, I'll run on and throw

1786
01:17:22,320 --> 01:17:22,719
Speaker 4: the over.

1787
01:17:24,320 --> 01:17:27,600
Speaker 6: Is part of this just I'm from Connecticut and I

1788
01:17:27,680 --> 01:17:31,400
Speaker 6: love my Huskies back to back national champions and would

1789
01:17:31,439 --> 01:17:33,880
Speaker 6: blindly bet throw over regardless. Sure, but if you want

1790
01:17:33,920 --> 01:17:36,600
Speaker 6: me to make a compelling argument, here you go. I

1791
01:17:36,920 --> 01:17:39,240
Speaker 6: liked what I saw from Joey Finiano in the first

1792
01:17:39,280 --> 01:17:41,360
Speaker 6: game against NZ State. You mentioned they played him cloth

1793
01:17:41,439 --> 01:17:44,160
Speaker 6: because he looked awesome. He's more mobile than people think.

1794
01:17:44,640 --> 01:17:46,080
Speaker 6: He's got a little swagger to him.

1795
01:17:46,120 --> 01:17:46,599
Speaker 4: He got hurt.

1796
01:17:46,720 --> 01:17:47,200
Speaker 3: I will say.

1797
01:17:47,240 --> 01:17:50,360
Speaker 6: The one concern I have is he transferred in from

1798
01:17:50,479 --> 01:17:53,840
Speaker 6: Fordham along with offensive coordinator Nick Charlton, who now left

1799
01:17:53,880 --> 01:17:55,880
Speaker 6: for the Cleveland Browns. So him coming in as part

1800
01:17:55,880 --> 01:17:58,360
Speaker 6: of the pairing with the coordinator doesn't have the coordinator.

1801
01:17:58,479 --> 01:18:01,360
Speaker 6: That's a slight concern. The running game is always good.

1802
01:18:01,520 --> 01:18:03,960
Speaker 6: Victor Ross is coming back. He had fourteen touchdowns in

1803
01:18:04,000 --> 01:18:06,880
Speaker 6: two years. He's from Connecticut, hometown guy by the way,

1804
01:18:07,000 --> 01:18:09,120
Speaker 6: if we do have an injury with Fiano again. Nick

1805
01:18:09,160 --> 01:18:11,160
Speaker 6: Evers transferred in from Wisconsin at the end of the

1806
01:18:11,200 --> 01:18:12,880
Speaker 6: spring porto, so that gives them a little more depth,

1807
01:18:12,960 --> 01:18:17,400
Speaker 6: especially with Zion Turner leaving. But you mentioned it the Yeah,

1808
01:18:17,400 --> 01:18:20,160
Speaker 6: they lose Jackson Mitchell to the NFL. That's obviously big loss.

1809
01:18:20,360 --> 01:18:23,000
Speaker 6: Justin Jolly Go Stency State tight end. They brought in

1810
01:18:23,240 --> 01:18:26,280
Speaker 6: Jim Mora is doing work in the transfer portal. They

1811
01:18:26,360 --> 01:18:28,320
Speaker 6: must be shipping pizza up from New Haven on these

1812
01:18:28,360 --> 01:18:31,880
Speaker 6: portal visits because they bring in Scaler Bell from Wisconsin, TJ.

1813
01:18:32,000 --> 01:18:35,760
Speaker 6: Sheffield from Purdue, Shamari Porter from Kentucky. Josiah Gathings is

1814
01:18:35,760 --> 01:18:39,679
Speaker 6: another receiver. Akron's leading receiver comes in the defensive side

1815
01:18:39,680 --> 01:18:41,800
Speaker 6: of the ball, Julian Simon from Tulsa. He was a

1816
01:18:41,840 --> 01:18:44,639
Speaker 6: four star defensive tackle prospect. They bring in a corner

1817
01:18:44,680 --> 01:18:46,880
Speaker 6: from Kansas State, they bring in a d n from Miami.

1818
01:18:47,000 --> 01:18:49,960
Speaker 6: They bring in a an edge rusher from Georgia Tech,

1819
01:18:50,000 --> 01:18:53,040
Speaker 6: another d lineman from Kansas State. They're bringing guys from

1820
01:18:53,200 --> 01:18:57,040
Speaker 6: all over you know, the country to Connecticut. A lot

1821
01:18:57,080 --> 01:18:59,360
Speaker 6: of power five drop but downs and sure they're probably

1822
01:18:59,439 --> 01:19:01,639
Speaker 6: just not balent enough to play at the Power FL level.

1823
01:19:01,880 --> 01:19:03,760
Speaker 6: But I think this is an injection of talent that's

1824
01:19:03,840 --> 01:19:05,599
Speaker 6: going to boost what we saw from them last year,

1825
01:19:05,680 --> 01:19:08,639
Speaker 6: especially at the wires here position. If Fiano stays healthy

1826
01:19:08,680 --> 01:19:10,320
Speaker 6: and he can get these guys the ball. And you

1827
01:19:10,400 --> 01:19:13,479
Speaker 6: mentioned the schedule, I'm kind of differing opinion on than

1828
01:19:13,560 --> 01:19:19,040
Speaker 6: Colin where you know, the Merrimack game, Florida Atlantic, Buffalo Temple.

1829
01:19:19,800 --> 01:19:22,040
Speaker 6: I like Rice, But Georgia State, who we talked about

1830
01:19:22,080 --> 01:19:24,040
Speaker 6: on our last pod, I don't think they're gonna be

1831
01:19:24,120 --> 01:19:27,320
Speaker 6: very good, you know. And then U Mass other than

1832
01:19:27,320 --> 01:19:29,200
Speaker 6: the U Mass game, the all those other games are

1833
01:19:29,200 --> 01:19:32,519
Speaker 6: at home, so all their winnable games are at home. Look,

1834
01:19:32,640 --> 01:19:35,639
Speaker 6: you don't just come into the rent and push Yukon around.

1835
01:19:35,680 --> 01:19:38,880
Speaker 6: You think Georgia State wants to come up to Hartford,

1836
01:19:38,920 --> 01:19:43,000
Speaker 6: Connecticut in November. No, you think you UB's on the road.

1837
01:19:43,040 --> 01:19:45,360
Speaker 6: But so I mean U Mass will basically be a

1838
01:19:45,400 --> 01:19:48,320
Speaker 6: home game for Yukon anyway, So I think there is

1839
01:19:48,360 --> 01:19:50,120
Speaker 6: five or six winns. I think this teamn go bowling.

1840
01:19:50,160 --> 01:19:52,320
Speaker 6: I think there is five winnable games here and they're

1841
01:19:52,360 --> 01:19:56,519
Speaker 6: all at home. So absolutely give me the owner over

1842
01:19:56,640 --> 01:20:00,320
Speaker 6: on Yukon is Joey Fanano Season Breeze. You said I

1843
01:20:00,320 --> 01:20:02,000
Speaker 6: don't have to bet this, Well, yeah you do, because

1844
01:20:02,080 --> 01:20:04,040
Speaker 6: we're partners in this and you have to be a

1845
01:20:04,080 --> 01:20:06,320
Speaker 6: loyal and supportive co host, and you're gonna bet you.

1846
01:20:06,360 --> 01:20:06,720
Speaker 5: Come with me.

1847
01:20:07,080 --> 01:20:08,400
Speaker 4: So go Huskies.

1848
01:20:08,640 --> 01:20:11,320
Speaker 6: We're going back to back in college basketball, and now

1849
01:20:11,360 --> 01:20:13,519
Speaker 6: we're making a ball in football, and.

1850
01:20:13,560 --> 01:20:16,400
Speaker 1: Now we're in twenty minutes in and your hottest take

1851
01:20:16,520 --> 01:20:19,479
Speaker 1: comes out. I appreciate the energy, and at this point,

1852
01:20:19,520 --> 01:20:21,920
Speaker 1: I feel like anything's possible for this college football season

1853
01:20:21,960 --> 01:20:24,679
Speaker 1: because we just did the hardest work. We made Conference

1854
01:20:24,840 --> 01:20:27,960
Speaker 1: USA compelling, we got lots of plays, and let's close

1855
01:20:28,000 --> 01:20:30,840
Speaker 1: it out with this. I want to go quick round table.

1856
01:20:31,120 --> 01:20:33,280
Speaker 1: Who you got in the Conference USA title game, who

1857
01:20:33,360 --> 01:20:36,080
Speaker 1: you got winning it? And what is your favorite win total.

1858
01:20:36,320 --> 01:20:37,280
Speaker 1: I'll start with you, Colin.

1859
01:20:37,800 --> 01:20:41,080
Speaker 5: I'm going to go Liberty over Sam Houston in the

1860
01:20:42,520 --> 01:20:46,879
Speaker 5: conference championship. I have to have a very large hedgroom

1861
01:20:46,920 --> 01:20:48,439
Speaker 5: for that, So just keep in mind you need to

1862
01:20:48,520 --> 01:20:50,040
Speaker 5: have twenty to one or better on any team that

1863
01:20:50,120 --> 01:20:53,680
Speaker 5: you're going to have join Liberty. From a conference futures perspective,

1864
01:20:54,640 --> 01:20:56,960
Speaker 5: I'm going to go La Tech under five. The writings

1865
01:20:57,000 --> 01:20:59,400
Speaker 5: on the on the wall there with Sunny comby the

1866
01:20:59,520 --> 01:21:01,680
Speaker 5: roster you mentioned this is how you get fired. I

1867
01:21:01,720 --> 01:21:04,519
Speaker 5: think Sunny's already got a foot out the door, you know.

1868
01:21:04,680 --> 01:21:07,080
Speaker 5: I there's there's just too much going on here. And

1869
01:21:07,120 --> 01:21:08,920
Speaker 5: I only have them favorite in two games over Nichols

1870
01:21:08,960 --> 01:21:11,280
Speaker 5: and Utip and only one coin flip against Keennessall State.

1871
01:21:11,560 --> 01:21:14,439
Speaker 5: Law Tech under five best bet for me, yep.

1872
01:21:14,360 --> 01:21:15,599
Speaker 3: Law Tech under five is awesome.

1873
01:21:15,680 --> 01:21:18,160
Speaker 6: My best bet for the conference sideal game, obviously, I'm

1874
01:21:18,160 --> 01:21:21,280
Speaker 6: gonna go Liberty over Let's see Sam, you want to

1875
01:21:21,280 --> 01:21:24,240
Speaker 6: get weird with this. Let's go Liberty over Middle Tennessee.

1876
01:21:25,040 --> 01:21:27,240
Speaker 6: Let's let's get let's Derek Mason gets hot late in

1877
01:21:27,280 --> 01:21:29,840
Speaker 6: the year and gets the gets the boys from Murphysborough

1878
01:21:30,320 --> 01:21:31,120
Speaker 6: to the QUST title.

1879
01:21:31,160 --> 01:21:32,080
Speaker 3: Get let's get weird with it.

1880
01:21:32,120 --> 01:21:32,360
Speaker 2: Why not?

1881
01:21:32,479 --> 01:21:33,200
Speaker 5: What do you have to lose?

1882
01:21:34,560 --> 01:21:37,640
Speaker 1: We got three different title game matchups. I'm gonna go

1883
01:21:37,760 --> 01:21:42,840
Speaker 1: Liberty over Jacksonville State, but a triple under on LA Tech.

1884
01:21:43,080 --> 01:21:46,640
Speaker 1: That's all of our favorite picks. I love. You know,

1885
01:21:46,960 --> 01:21:49,200
Speaker 1: it was already my favorite one, you know, top two

1886
01:21:49,400 --> 01:21:51,360
Speaker 1: on the board. But then you dropped in that nugget

1887
01:21:51,439 --> 01:21:54,360
Speaker 1: Colin about the A D that is enough for me.

1888
01:21:54,680 --> 01:21:57,560
Speaker 1: I feel like the pressure, the locker room vibes, just

1889
01:21:57,640 --> 01:21:59,800
Speaker 1: their issues at quarterback, It's not gonna be enough for

1890
01:21:59,840 --> 01:22:02,520
Speaker 1: the Bulldogs to stabilize and pull out of this nosedive

1891
01:22:03,000 --> 01:22:05,000
Speaker 1: back to back three and nine seasons. I see another

1892
01:22:05,040 --> 01:22:07,880
Speaker 1: one on tap and a pink slip for Sonny Comby.

1893
01:22:08,080 --> 01:22:09,839
Speaker 1: All Right, before we get out of here, a reminder

1894
01:22:09,880 --> 01:22:12,960
Speaker 1: if you were listening to this podcast via your podcast feed,

1895
01:22:13,200 --> 01:22:15,599
Speaker 1: wherever you go about finding that there's a way.

1896
01:22:15,520 --> 01:22:16,559
Speaker 4: To listen to this earlier.

1897
01:22:16,640 --> 01:22:19,639
Speaker 1: We now have our own YouTube channel, BBOC, so you're

1898
01:22:19,640 --> 01:22:23,559
Speaker 1: gonna go ahead into the description of this episode. It's

1899
01:22:23,560 --> 01:22:25,559
Speaker 1: a way for you to be able to subscribe as

1900
01:22:25,640 --> 01:22:28,639
Speaker 1: quickly as possible. You're gonna get these episodes much earlier.

1901
01:22:28,760 --> 01:22:31,080
Speaker 1: You're also going to get bonus content throughout the year.

1902
01:22:31,320 --> 01:22:34,559
Speaker 1: We're gonna have content with all of our BBOC co hosts.

1903
01:22:34,760 --> 01:22:37,840
Speaker 1: We're gonna have previews, we're gonna have futures talk, We're

1904
01:22:37,880 --> 01:22:40,880
Speaker 1: gonna have special features with former college athletes as well

1905
01:22:41,280 --> 01:22:44,439
Speaker 1: as well as some simulation data from college football twenty five.

1906
01:22:44,680 --> 01:22:47,400
Speaker 1: Once EA Sports drops that patch and figures out a

1907
01:22:47,400 --> 01:22:49,639
Speaker 1: way to you know, not have seven and five teams

1908
01:22:49,680 --> 01:22:51,559
Speaker 1: in the College Football Playoff. I'm going to be going

1909
01:22:51,600 --> 01:22:54,280
Speaker 1: through on a weekly basis simulating some of those games

1910
01:22:54,320 --> 01:22:57,479
Speaker 1: of the week. Hopefully you know either EA is right

1911
01:22:57,560 --> 01:22:59,639
Speaker 1: on it or it's an opportunity to fade them every

1912
01:22:59,640 --> 01:23:01,719
Speaker 1: single week. Either way, we're going to give that a shot.

1913
01:23:01,800 --> 01:23:03,560
Speaker 1: Be able to serve that up for you on the

1914
01:23:03,600 --> 01:23:06,880
Speaker 1: YouTube channel, both in shorts and in full episodes. So

1915
01:23:07,680 --> 01:23:12,080
Speaker 1: go to the description in this podcast subscribe, or if

1916
01:23:12,120 --> 01:23:14,040
Speaker 1: you want to go old school, let your fingers do

1917
01:23:14,120 --> 01:23:17,960
Speaker 1: the walking, go to YouTube BBOC Betting channel and.

1918
01:23:18,000 --> 01:23:19,559
Speaker 4: You're gonna be able to hop on right there.

1919
01:23:19,960 --> 01:23:22,320
Speaker 1: For Colin Wilson and Mike Iinella on Mike Calibrey's This

1920
01:23:22,400 --> 01:23:24,080
Speaker 1: has been the Group of five Deep Dive under the

1921
01:23:24,120 --> 01:23:27,880
Speaker 1: Big Bets on Campus banner presented by BETTMGM can't wait

1922
01:23:27,920 --> 01:23:31,599
Speaker 1: to deliver more in conference preview season cover to USA

1923
01:23:31,680 --> 01:23:33,920
Speaker 1: and the Independence now in the books, and a reminder

1924
01:23:34,080 --> 01:23:36,080
Speaker 1: that you're gonna be able to hear that other independent

1925
01:23:36,200 --> 01:23:39,439
Speaker 1: Notre Dame in the ACC preview from Colin and Stuck.

1926
01:23:39,680 --> 01:23:42,360
Speaker 1: Thanks so much for listening and enjoyed preview season.

1927
01:23:51,320 --> 01:23:55,800
Speaker 7: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly if you or

1928
01:23:55,880 --> 01:23:57,960
Speaker 7: someone you care about has a gambling problem.

1929
01:23:58,320 --> 01:24:00,920
Speaker 1: Help is available twenty four sound than at one eight

1930
01:24:01,000 --> 01:24:01,759
Speaker 1: hundred gambler