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Speaker 1: Runch you by Bank of America Mary Lynch. With virtual reality,

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Speaker 1: virtually everything will change. Discover opportunities in a transforming world.

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Speaker 1: Be of a mL dot Com, slash VR, Mary Lynch,

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Speaker 1: Pierced Fenner and Smith Incorporated. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm Tom Keene with David Gura. Daily we bring you

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Speaker 1: insight from the best of economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

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Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com,

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Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg. Tony Dwyer joins us

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Speaker 1: now at the chief market strategist at can of Coordinuity.

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Speaker 1: Right to have you with us, Tony, Let me just

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Speaker 1: start with what you detailed in a recent note here

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Speaker 1: you looked at the relationship between dollar strength, the Fed

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Speaker 1: Reserve UH and UH and S ANDP earnings. What if

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Speaker 1: what have you found there in terms of how those

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Speaker 1: three things are are correlated. Help us set the stage

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Speaker 1: here for the f WEMC meeting which starts today. Well, first,

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Speaker 1: it's a great question. Um, I think there's a perception

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Speaker 1: that the dollar was going to be strong last year

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Speaker 1: on the back of higher rates in the US and

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Speaker 1: what we just start pointing out is that a weaker

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Speaker 1: dollar acts as a tail went too corporate profits and

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Speaker 1: corporate profits are ultimately what drives us UH the US

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Speaker 1: equity market. So when you have the dollar as weak

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Speaker 1: as its span over the last six months, you actually

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Speaker 1: get a bit weaker over the next three months. So

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Speaker 1: our call is that the dollar is going to continue

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Speaker 1: to weaken a little bit, may have a little bit

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Speaker 1: of a very near term bounce here, but ultimately it's

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Speaker 1: going to weaken a little bit more, which acts as

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Speaker 1: a tail went and again supportive of US equities. The

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Speaker 1: only the most closely correlated UH thing to the US

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Speaker 1: equity market is the direction of earnings, and that remains positive.

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Speaker 1: What's what's contributing to that weaker dollar at this point?

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Speaker 1: Do you have a sense from this administration of what

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Speaker 1: they'd like to see with the dollar? Now? You know,

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Speaker 1: I would love to blame the administration. I would love

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Speaker 1: to blame interest rates. What it comes down to is

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Speaker 1: global economic growth. When you look at periods of a

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Speaker 1: strong US dollar or a strong US currency, it comes

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Speaker 1: during periods of fear of global economic growth. So think

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Speaker 1: of the late nineteen nineties, the Asian economic crisis, the

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Speaker 1: Russian debt default, the commodity price collapse in the in

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Speaker 1: the late nine nineties, those things drove a very strong

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Speaker 1: US dollar. The same was true from two thousand and

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Speaker 1: eleven to two thousand and fourteen. What do you have

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Speaker 1: a very weak global economic backdrop with European debt crisis

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Speaker 1: every year for three years, Chinese slowdown and demand which

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Speaker 1: created a commodity price collapse, and again that led to

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Speaker 1: that stronger dollar. So what really drives a dollar is rate,

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Speaker 1: not interest rate, but rate of return expectations. You raised

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Speaker 1: your your SMP targets at the beginning of the month, uh,

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Speaker 1: and then I guess just a couple of days ago

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Speaker 1: said you you thought that those, uh, those might be conservative.

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Speaker 1: Give it give us a sense here of why you

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Speaker 1: reevaluated and uh, indeed why you think they might be

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Speaker 1: more conservative than you expect at the beginning of the month. Well,

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Speaker 1: we'll contrary to public opinion. And what Tom typically accuses

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Speaker 1: me of is which is being always bullish. We had

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Speaker 1: been neutral in the early part of the year because

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Speaker 1: the market had run too far after the Trump election,

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Speaker 1: so we had gone back to the bull camp on

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Speaker 1: April and again recently increased our estimate UH for target

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Speaker 1: for the SMP five. Hearded because earnings are beating expectations

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Speaker 1: are earning's estimate was too low. Again, the only time

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Speaker 1: you really want to be defensive or a sustained seller

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Speaker 1: of stocks, it's only when you have an identifiable recession

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Speaker 1: in sight, and we're still years away from that. You

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Speaker 1: mentioned that the earnings give us that we've seen a

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Speaker 1: few financials, so this week we had some more industrials

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Speaker 1: reporting this morning. Where do you where do you see

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Speaker 1: the most the most positive uptrend and when it comes

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Speaker 1: to earnings, well, you have financials. Uh, financials are killing it.

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Speaker 1: I mean they're about fifteen four fiftcent of the SMP

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Speaker 1: and their twenty percent of the earnings, and that's that's

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Speaker 1: likely to get better as loan demand picks up with

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Speaker 1: global economic activity. Not to mention regulatory reform. People forget

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Speaker 1: how important it's been to the Trump administration to curtel

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Speaker 1: some of the onerous regulations that have been put in place,

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Speaker 1: and that is helping clearly helping the banks. Is that

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Speaker 1: where you think we're going to see the most action here?

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Speaker 1: I look at what all that's come out of Washington,

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Speaker 1: and there's been, as everyone knows, plenty of talk about

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Speaker 1: what may or may not happen. But on the issue

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Speaker 1: of regulation, it strikes me that's where we've seen the

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Speaker 1: most detail. We have the Treasury Department releasing a very

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Speaker 1: lengthy report on what it would like to do with

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Speaker 1: banking regulation in particular, plans to release more chapters on

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Speaker 1: that as the as the months go by. Is that

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Speaker 1: principally why you're your optimism is ground in regulation. Well,

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Speaker 1: it's not just grounded in regulation. What it's really grounded

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Speaker 1: is that academic activity is pretty good. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 1: you cannot have five percent top line growth for SMP companies,

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Speaker 1: meaning and for the listener, that means revenue growth. That's

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Speaker 1: real money coming in. That's not financial engineering. If you

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Speaker 1: have a terrible economy. Plus now we actually have global

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Speaker 1: economic growth and that is helpful to earning. So when

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Speaker 1: you couple that with not fearing increased regulation and increased taxes,

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Speaker 1: and David to me that that's really the story here

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Speaker 1: is it's not hope that Trump's agenda gets past. It's

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Speaker 1: knowing that the anti business agenda is not going to

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Speaker 1: get worse. Is allowing companies to spend money innovate and

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Speaker 1: uh increase capital spending in productivity. And Tony Drawyer with

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Speaker 1: us with kind of cord januity. Good morning everyone, David

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Speaker 1: Gerd and Tom Keane with lots on Washington. We have

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Speaker 1: a tweeting president in a moment Bloomberg surveillance, Tony Uh.

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Speaker 1: We we had a take out the other day on

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Speaker 1: the acquisition. I should say that's a transaction in boring

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Speaker 1: businesses like Mustard McCormick of Baltimore buys french Is Mustard,

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Speaker 1: And I don't want you to comment on a specific transaction,

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Speaker 1: but I would suggest for most prose the valuation of

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Speaker 1: that acquisition was jaw dropping. Is there a chance that

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Speaker 1: this market is grossly undervalued and that the market within

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Speaker 1: the animal spirits of consolidation and combination is multiples way

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Speaker 1: higher than we can even perceive. Yes, and again Tom,

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Speaker 1: I think it's very dangerous for people like me. We're

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Speaker 1: great on coming on here and talking about targets, and

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Speaker 1: they're all stupid. I mean, you know it's you. I

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Speaker 1: have no idea what the pe should be at. What

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Speaker 1: I do know is that you will want to follow

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Speaker 1: the trend of valuations whether it's from mergers and acquisitions

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Speaker 1: m and A as we say it in the business,

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Speaker 1: or if it's from earnings or just global economic activity.

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Speaker 1: You don't want to bet against the trend and the valuations.

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Speaker 1: If you had done that in the late you would

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Speaker 1: have sold miss more than a double. So I think

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Speaker 1: it's important again to understand what drives the direction of

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Speaker 1: the market, and that's the need for return that's not

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Speaker 1: changing with rates where they are. And Tony Dwyer, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much, greatly appreciate can record jenuity. It is

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Speaker 1: good David Gura to uh have a little bit of

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Speaker 1: presidential humor and we agreeded with it within the seriousness.

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Speaker 1: And you know whitness the White House correspondence dinner of

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Speaker 1: X number of years ago where he really didn't want

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Speaker 1: to go with the flow a levity within a tweet.

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Speaker 1: Why don't you read us his tweet? Next up? President

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Speaker 1: Tromp tweet several times this morning, obviously a lot of

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Speaker 1: it focusing on speculation about his his faith in his

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Speaker 1: attorney general. Uh, we have that he also is talking

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Speaker 1: here about to John McCain coming back to vote, as

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Speaker 1: I mentioned at the top of the show. And then

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Speaker 1: he commed it on his son in law and senior

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Speaker 1: adviser Jared Kushner, who testified yesterday or had an interview

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Speaker 1: yesterday on Capitol Hill with the Senate Intelligence Committee. He's

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Speaker 1: back on the Hill today to speak before the House

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Speaker 1: Intelligence Committee, and people speak with a member of that

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Speaker 1: committee just a little while. He said, Jared Kushner did

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Speaker 1: very well yesterday and proving he did not collude with

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Speaker 1: the Russians, which hunt. Next up, eleven year old Baron Trump.

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Speaker 1: So the President taking Twitter this morning after he politicized,

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Speaker 1: I think you could say talked about politics at the

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Speaker 1: Boy Scout Jamboree in West Virginia yesterday. To the chagrin

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Speaker 1: of of many. That wasn't the proper form for for

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Speaker 1: that to take place. A lot of interest here in

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Speaker 1: Tony Dwyer. We're gonna come back with Mr Dwyer and

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Speaker 1: Kinnecort Jenuity and talked much more specific sectors here within

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Speaker 1: the equity markets of what finds you You mentioned the

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Speaker 1: financials earlier with a large earnings growth versus multiple etcetera.

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Speaker 1: We've heard that from a number of other guests. Tony

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Speaker 1: Dwyer with us with Kindagart Januity David. It's always an

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Speaker 1: honor when any condiments with Bloody Mary's comes from the door.

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Speaker 1: Frank's Red Hot original sauce. I did not know it's

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Speaker 1: Louisiana like Tabasco, but it was out of Ohio, manufactured

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Speaker 1: by Frenches. I thought of you as I saw that

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Speaker 1: at the Key Foods in my neighborhood, and we had

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Speaker 1: our we had as an artis store. That's hardly the

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Speaker 1: corner grocery store. First time he wandered in, Yeah, well

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Speaker 1: there was on sale alongside the Wrenches mustard that you

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Speaker 1: talk so lovingly about last week, like the Dwyer Yeah,

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Speaker 1: he will. I will not, and I will use an

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Speaker 1: artisanal gin just to go with every Franks Red Hot

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Speaker 1: as well. Tony Dwyers, what are they talking about, Tony?

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Speaker 1: Let's talk foot stocks. I know what you're talking about. Okay,

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Speaker 1: General Mills just as an ultimate food stock. And I know, Tony,

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Speaker 1: you're not going to talk about individual stocks. But are

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Speaker 1: you finding comfort in buying boredom? Now? If it's cheerios

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Speaker 1: or Frank's or mustard or or whatever. General Mills ten

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Speaker 1: point four per ten, your return, almost double digit dividend growth.

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Speaker 1: You get a big fat yield of three points six

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Speaker 1: zero percent, can Anthony Dwyer find comfort and conservative cash flow? No, uh,

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Speaker 1: where I would have evaluation issues some of these more

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Speaker 1: defensive orientate stocks. Let me let me explain, um, for

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Speaker 1: the less seven years, you had slow economic activity in

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Speaker 1: the US because you've had a very weak global economy

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Speaker 1: coupled with just tame demand in the US. The US

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Speaker 1: business cycle is getting better on the back of less

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Speaker 1: regulation and no fear of increased taxes, and the global

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Speaker 1: economy is doing much better due to the financial the

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Speaker 1: monetary stimulus from the central banks overseas. So we have

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Speaker 1: a good economy in the background. So now I think

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Speaker 1: is the time to buy those areas that are exposed

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Speaker 1: to more aggressive economic growth everyone and not everyone. Many

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Speaker 1: are invested in the quote unquote no growth trade, which

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Speaker 1: means you buy technology because that has growth, or you

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Speaker 1: buy what's called bonds or against those companies that yield

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Speaker 1: higher than the yes than the current bond yield, so

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Speaker 1: it's kind of a no growth trade. We're thinking the

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Speaker 1: other way should be the right way for the next

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Speaker 1: six to twelve months, where you buy banks, those responsible

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Speaker 1: for lending more aggressively to companies and households, industrial materials, steals,

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Speaker 1: copper is those that go into infrastructure and increased capital spending,

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Speaker 1: and by corporate America industrial companies, and then of course

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Speaker 1: some of the beleaguered energy names, sorry to use be

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Speaker 1: leaguered after the present day. Dig into your UH thesis

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Speaker 1: here a little bit and ask you sort of what

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Speaker 1: corporate credit pressure is like at this point when you

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Speaker 1: look at the credit side of things, what do you

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Speaker 1: say credit? Is that? The question I get David many

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Speaker 1: times is what keeps you up at night? You've been

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Speaker 1: bullish for a long time. What keeps you up at night?

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Speaker 1: What keeps me up at night is that volatility is

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Speaker 1: so low and credit is so good if you In

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Speaker 1: the last segment on TV with Tom, we talked to

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Speaker 1: a European economist about UH and we mentioned that the

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Speaker 1: credit derivatives markets and the European banks are at our

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Speaker 1: historically low the credit derivatives in the US banks are

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Speaker 1: going back to their historic lows. I can't find any

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Speaker 1: signs of serious credit stress in corporate credit. There is

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Speaker 1: a little bit of stress in the short term t

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Speaker 1: BUIL having related to the upcoming deficit UH and budget talks,

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Speaker 1: but again on the corporate side, there is money made

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Speaker 1: widely available. If we enjoy a correction, which is somewhat

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Speaker 1: within your research. If we go down eight or ten

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Speaker 1: or eleven, do you place cash in the market or

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Speaker 1: do you flip and say that's a bad sign, not

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Speaker 1: a chance, you know, That's that's where we make a mistake.

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Speaker 1: We come on here like we have any idea what

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Speaker 1: you know what, there is a very fundamental driver of

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Speaker 1: what we do at can of coordinuity, and that is

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Speaker 1: unless you shut down credit, unless you make it so

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Speaker 1: companies and households have no access to credit. And I

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Speaker 1: challenge the listeners to just call their bank or and

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Speaker 1: ask if they can get a home equity line or

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Speaker 1: a loan, a car, any kind of loan. It's a

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Speaker 1: lot easier than it was seven years ago. So until

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Speaker 1: that changes, if you get a correction in the market,

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Speaker 1: it I believe that it's a gift on the market gods,

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Speaker 1: until you have an identifiable recession insight. Tony Dwyer, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much. This SMP four seventy and the SMP.

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Speaker 1: Mr Dwyers with can a chord uh Jenuity. David bringing

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Speaker 1: our steam guest with a congressional district that speaks of

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Speaker 1: almost the movies as well as the modern tensions of

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Speaker 1: our border. Is he maybe the border Congressman. I think

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Speaker 1: you could say so, Bill Hurt will hurt rather, I

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Speaker 1: think the congressional district with stretches from San Antonio El

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Speaker 1: Pasa right along the Texas Mexico board. He's a member

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Speaker 1: of the US House Representative Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.

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Speaker 1: I mentioned that Jared Kushner, the President's son in law

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Speaker 1: and senior advisory, is scheduled to testify before the House

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Speaker 1: Intelligence Committee today. He is somebody with whom uh uh,

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Speaker 1: Jared Christian will be speaking just a little bit later,

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Speaker 1: but we'll heard here on our phone line. Compressman heard.

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Speaker 1: Let me just ask you, first of all, what you're

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Speaker 1: hoping to hear today from from the president son in

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Speaker 1: law and senior advisor. Course, he testified yesterday, had an

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Speaker 1: interview yesterday before the Senate Intelligence Committee. Is this a

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Speaker 1: formal hearing? What do you intend to hear from the

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Speaker 1: senior advisor today? Well, first off, thanks for having me on, gentlemen,

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Speaker 1: and and today I think we're we're interested in hearing

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Speaker 1: a little bit more about um what he published a

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Speaker 1: few days ago. Um. In these kinds of investigations, you interview,

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Speaker 1: you cross examine, you make sure you can corroborate information. UM.

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Speaker 1: Understanding plans and intentions before activity is important. And this

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Speaker 1: is going to be done in a bipartisan fashion. And

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Speaker 1: so UM, I planned to hear a little bit more

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Speaker 1: and unpack some of the points in his in his

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Speaker 1: letter that he published the other day. Let me just

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Speaker 1: ask you about the leadership's hierarchy, the leadership that of

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Speaker 1: of the of the House Intelligence Committee. We saw a

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Speaker 1: tweet yesterday in which President referred to your ranking member

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Speaker 1: as sleazy Adam Schiff. Of course, there's been some controversies

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Speaker 1: surrounding Devinuon as the chairman of the committee. Are you

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Speaker 1: confident in the leadership of the House Intelligence Committee at

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Speaker 1: this point? Um? I am? I think UM. When it

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Speaker 1: comes specifically to the Russia investigation, my fellow Texan, Mike

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Speaker 1: Conaway is the person you know calling the shots. UM.

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Speaker 1: He and Mr Schiff have been working in a thorough

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Speaker 1: bipartisan way. We had a little hiccup, UM today or

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Speaker 1: excuse me yesterday. Last night we went to pass the

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Speaker 1: Intelligence Authorization. This basically funds the intelligence community, and it's

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Speaker 1: usually done in in a you know, last year it

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Speaker 1: passed overwhelmingly. UM at markup. This is where you're at

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Speaker 1: the committee. You're adding amendments at the committee. UM. You know,

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Speaker 1: none of my my friends on the Democratic side of

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Speaker 1: the aisle um offered offered amendments. UM. It passed out

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Speaker 1: of committee unanimously. And then uh Nancy Losie put the

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Speaker 1: brakes from this and and this, this failed, This failed

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Speaker 1: last night. I'm on suspension vote. Will bring it back

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Speaker 1: up later this week. But this was something that had

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Speaker 1: some of the toughest language and the money available to

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Speaker 1: the intelligence community to deal with Russia. Russia is not

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Speaker 1: our ally. They are adverse area. Congressman, you're a fighting

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Speaker 1: Texas Aggy. You served in the c I A D

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Speaker 1: give him. I'm sure you go to the Aggie mustards,

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Speaker 1: which is attended by seven hundred thousand people in the district.

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Speaker 1: But but within this is what you need from this

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Speaker 1: president because you are in the crucible of tight Republican

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Speaker 1: races to win. It's a real battle every time a

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Speaker 1: Republican goes out of your district to try to win.

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Speaker 1: What do you need from President Trump right now? Well,

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Speaker 1: for me, here's the way I look at my race. UM.

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Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton won my district by four points his last election. UM.

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Speaker 1: I always say I don't believe in cote of UM.

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Speaker 1: I have an independent relationship with the folks in my district.

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Speaker 1: I represent twenty nine counties, two time zones, eight miles

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Speaker 1: of the border. It takes ten and a half hours

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Speaker 1: to drive from one corner the other at eighty miles.

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Speaker 1: What do you need from this president? What do you

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Speaker 1: need from this president besides fourteen tweets a day? Well, look,

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Speaker 1: I think a focus on on national security UM when

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Speaker 1: it comes to dealing with things like ISIS. I think

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Speaker 1: this administration UM has done a good job the tough

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Speaker 1: stance UM with North Korea, and you know that being

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Speaker 1: extended UM to to China and trying to get transant

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Speaker 1: to do more to tighten to tighten up UM. You

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Speaker 1: know of of the economics of commerce that goes to

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Speaker 1: the North Korea, expects of China. Congress, I think that's important.

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Speaker 1: We gotta go, We gotta get your back on William

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Speaker 1: heard from the three District of Texas. Good Morning, College

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Speaker 1: Station Texas. Brunt you by Bank of America, Mary Lynch

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Speaker 1: with us writing really really sharp notes for BMP, Barrybobic, Genormous, Jagundo,

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Speaker 1: French Bank US. Well, let's let's focus maybe towards the FED,

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Speaker 1: which is, do we have any sense Paul of GDP recovery?

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Speaker 1: Are we going into this meeting and the next meeting?

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Speaker 1: Let me get it up here. I can do this quickly.

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Speaker 1: On the Bloomberg Professional Service September November one, dem can

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Speaker 1: we get towards three percent g d P? Or if

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Speaker 1: you just given up? I don't think we can get

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Speaker 1: towards three I mean we haven't done that for a

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Speaker 1: long time on a sustained basis, and now you know

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Speaker 1: some firms are finding difficult to find workers. It's not

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Speaker 1: going to happen, I think unless there's a productivity explosion,

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Speaker 1: and that doesn't seem likely unless there's a massive increase

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Speaker 1: in investment. What what this goes to him? Been reading

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Speaker 1: up a storm on this. Where's your thanks? Can rog

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Speaker 1: for sp sparring me to do this. The basic idea, Paul,

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Speaker 1: that labor share is part of business revenues has gone down.

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Speaker 1: Is technology? Is technology really what we're talking about here,

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Speaker 1: that technology and all of our our daily lives. He's

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Speaker 1: just diminished the need for labor. Where it's technology and

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Speaker 1: it's globalization. I think you know, we've we've seen that

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Speaker 1: there's been a massive addition to the global labor force

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Speaker 1: over the last twenty years, and much less addition to capital.

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Speaker 1: So the relative price of capital and labor of shifted

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Speaker 1: and it's been a boom time for capital and for

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Speaker 1: workers have seen their share diminished. And I don't think

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Speaker 1: that's going to shift very much. I was reading in

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Speaker 1: most recent note, there's a very vivid image there about

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Speaker 1: Mario Dragging his speech in Portugal. You said the ECB

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Speaker 1: failed to get the toothpaste back into the tubes of

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Speaker 1: the Euro has rallied. Since then, what have we heard

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Speaker 1: from Mr Drag since the market misinterpreted or didn't interpret

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Speaker 1: in line with what he hoped they would what he

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Speaker 1: had to say, they did he manage to write the

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Speaker 1: course at the press conference had followed the most recent ECB,

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Speaker 1: meaning no, he didn't. I mean, he tried to be

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Speaker 1: more dovish. But the thing is that when the European

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Speaker 1: data are coming out so strong, where had he fail

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Speaker 1: this morning from Germany at record levels, then everybody knows

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Speaker 1: that the data are saying you need to tighten monetary

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Speaker 1: policy or take away some of the accommodation, and the

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Speaker 1: words are just delaying that. But the market looks through

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Speaker 1: it and they expect we'll see a shift in policy

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Speaker 1: in September or we think more likely October, and the

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Speaker 1: words are just brushed aside. You highlighted a speech that

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Speaker 1: Leo Brainer the FED gave a couple of days ago,

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Speaker 1: and you note that she's somebody who thinks a lot

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Speaker 1: about the relationship between the US economy and the global economy.

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Speaker 1: And Tom and I have had a number of discussions

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Speaker 1: about what might happen to the FED if it becomes

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Speaker 1: more rules based, etcetera. If it were to become more

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Speaker 1: rules based, does that inherently mean that it is less

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Speaker 1: cognizant of the global economy it has become more domestic focused.

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Speaker 1: If we have a more rules based fan, I think

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Speaker 1: you probably would be, wouldn't it, because you know your

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Speaker 1: rules would probably have domestic inflation and domestic unemployment, so

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Speaker 1: you you get some external influence insofar as the external

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Speaker 1: world influenced those things. But in real time, what we've

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Speaker 1: got with the judgment based policy is the policymakers are

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Speaker 1: taking account of that all the time, and so they

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Speaker 1: can react to what's happening in the global economy much quicker.

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Speaker 1: If there was a global financial crisis somewhere else, you

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Speaker 1: can take it into account. If you're rules based, you'd

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Speaker 1: have to wait until it affected the data, which would

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Speaker 1: mean you'd be slower, the outcomes would be worse. How

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Speaker 1: effectively is the FED him making the case through this temporary,

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Speaker 1: transitory inflationary head wind, And I guess part of that

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Speaker 1: is also just how how long does she have to

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Speaker 1: make that to make that case? How long can something

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Speaker 1: be transitory? Well, you know, I think she was kind

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Speaker 1: of giving up the white flag rates the Humphrey Hawkins testament,

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Speaker 1: and she sound more convinced that the previous press conference.

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Speaker 1: But this time I think I think they're rattled. They

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Speaker 1: don't understand it. They're saying it's transitory, but the risk

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Speaker 1: is that they've got particular manifestations of a bigger overall problem,

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Speaker 1: and one of the big problems is competition in retailing

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Speaker 1: with bricks and mortars. Retailers under severe pressure from online retailers,

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Speaker 1: and that's driving prices down. And I think, honestly, I

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Speaker 1: think consumers have got a little bit squeezed, and so

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Speaker 1: to keep volumes going, firms are having a cut prices

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Speaker 1: and I don't see that going away anytime soon. Are they?

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Speaker 1: Are they rightfully flummoxed about this? Is this something that

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Speaker 1: they don't understand another economists don't understand or is there

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Speaker 1: a blind spot at the FED? They're unable to see

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Speaker 1: something that other people are well. I think, to be honest,

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Speaker 1: the models are broken. I mean, several years ago had

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Speaker 1: one European central bankers say the problem is central banks

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Speaker 1: don't know what calls the inflation anymore. And I think

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Speaker 1: that's true, But of course they've got to pretend they

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Speaker 1: do know. It's like the witch dactor. You've got to

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Speaker 1: keep dancing the raindown, saying the rain is gonna come.

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Speaker 1: The rain is gonna come, even if you don't believe

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Speaker 1: in it. And that's what what do the central banks

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Speaker 1: do if they say, oh, we don't know what calls

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Speaker 1: the inflation anymore, and they've got inflation targets, so they're

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Speaker 1: in a tough position. I think. I mean, I look, Paul,

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Speaker 1: the whole mix of this. Are you working with the

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Speaker 1: economics you learned out of a textbook or do you

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Speaker 1: feel like day to day at BMP perry but not

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Speaker 1: that you're making it up as you go. But there's

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Speaker 1: not a grounded theory right now. It's not a grounded thing.

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Speaker 1: And I think think thinks since the Great Financial Crisis,

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Speaker 1: a lot of relationships broken. The theory may be there,

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Speaker 1: but the measurement isn't. Lots of relationships have changed in

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Speaker 1: massive significant ways, the way firm set prices of way

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Speaker 1: firms higher people, and we don't understand it fully. We've

429
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:17,359
Speaker 1: not been in this position where the labor markets tight

430
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:21,840
Speaker 1: in a changed world ever before, and so we're stumbling

431
00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:24,960
Speaker 1: in the dark, groping to find something out there to

432
00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:28,359
Speaker 1: give us a handle to work out how things are

433
00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 1: going to evolve. I'm gonna gonna put a number of

434
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:32,679
Speaker 1: these tweets that we got this morning from the President

435
00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:34,400
Speaker 1: to you. I won't put you in a debt position.

436
00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:36,920
Speaker 1: But there was a tweet about the meeting yesterday about

437
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:40,119
Speaker 1: in the U s. UK trade deal, the beginnings of

438
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:43,120
Speaker 1: the negotiation story, I believe and watched in yesterday. What's

439
00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:45,679
Speaker 1: that going to tell us about trade policy here in

440
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:48,520
Speaker 1: the US and trade policy in the UK as well. Well, well,

441
00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:50,920
Speaker 1: we'll see how it goes. I think it's it's difficult.

442
00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:52,960
Speaker 1: I think many people in the UK think it's difficult

443
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:56,360
Speaker 1: for the UK to agree trade deals with people outside

444
00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:59,959
Speaker 1: Europe until they've got a trade deal with Europe because

445
00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:04,960
Speaker 1: a lot it will affect how how trade evolves between

446
00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:08,120
Speaker 1: UK and the third country, and so I think will

447
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:12,280
Speaker 1: make slow progress on that, as we make slow progress

448
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:15,240
Speaker 1: on Brexit. Basically, how much of a complicating factor is that,

449
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:17,560
Speaker 1: as you forecast for the U s economy in the

450
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:20,440
Speaker 1: globe economy as well, not knowing exactly what the trade

451
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 1: policy is or how that's going to change things. Yeah,

452
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 1: well it's difficult. I think we were more worried at

453
00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:27,920
Speaker 1: the beginning of the Trump presidency. The rhetoric was harder,

454
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 1: the rhetoric was hotterly. It seemed more likely you might

455
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:33,359
Speaker 1: get a clash with China, and I think we'll get

456
00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:38,639
Speaker 1: maybe instances in particular sectors, but nothing that's broad based

457
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:41,400
Speaker 1: and of course that the fact that the dollars softening,

458
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:44,960
Speaker 1: the US manufacturing is doing pretty well. He's taking off

459
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:47,920
Speaker 1: that pressure. And when you mentioned Leo Brainard, one of

460
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:50,720
Speaker 1: the things she mentioned was that the exchange rate it's

461
00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 1: much less sensitive to long rates than to short rates.

462
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:57,600
Speaker 1: That may be behind, in my view, why they want

463
00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:00,160
Speaker 1: to do the balance sheet. But thank you. So it's

464
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 1: Paul Morton, really, PMP Perry, Timothy John Ryan is it?

465
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 1: It's just what's great about interviewing congress people. Is there

466
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:25,080
Speaker 1: all from remarkably different districts. His district stretches from Youngstown

467
00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:28,439
Speaker 1: over to Akron. It's the backbone of what used to

468
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:31,200
Speaker 1: be in Ohio and what is for the new Ohio

469
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:35,879
Speaker 1: Congressional District. Congress from Ryan, good morning, thank you so

470
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 1: much for having me. A kid in my daughter's high

471
00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:45,640
Speaker 1: school class died three days ago of opioids. How bad

472
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:49,720
Speaker 1: is it? Senator Portman has provided leadership on this. How

473
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:56,320
Speaker 1: bad is opioids and heroin in the congressional district. Unfortunately,

474
00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:59,280
Speaker 1: we hear those stories every single day, and you know,

475
00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:02,560
Speaker 1: it never gets easy. And you know we we lost

476
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:05,240
Speaker 1: a friend a couple of weeks ago who battled it

477
00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:08,639
Speaker 1: on and off even kind of recovered and started uh

478
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:11,400
Speaker 1: run and rehab facilities, and we thought he was out

479
00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 1: of the woods, and and then uh, you know, it

480
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 1: just it just always catches up with you. It's happening

481
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:19,840
Speaker 1: all the time. Uh. And you know, we've got a

482
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:22,360
Speaker 1: lot of work to do in Ohio and New Hampshire

483
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:24,560
Speaker 1: and some of these other states that are really really

484
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:27,840
Speaker 1: feeling it. What religion do you need to get from

485
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:32,919
Speaker 1: your President, your Senate and Speaker Ryan, not you in

486
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:36,639
Speaker 1: the House. What's the leadership you need to get the

487
00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:42,760
Speaker 1: heroin opioid epidemic going in the right direction. Well, I

488
00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:44,480
Speaker 1: think it's got to be a lot of things, and

489
00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:47,199
Speaker 1: it's got to be a multi pronged effort. And you know,

490
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:50,280
Speaker 1: throwing people off of their their healthcare, their medicaid is

491
00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:52,600
Speaker 1: not a really good start. I mean, we've talked to

492
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:54,800
Speaker 1: so many people who if they didn't have the Medicaid

493
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:57,919
Speaker 1: expansion and the treatment that comes with that, that they

494
00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 1: would certainly and then they tell they'll look us right

495
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 1: in the eye and tell us this, they'll die, you know,

496
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:05,679
Speaker 1: they'll they'll you know, go right back to doing what

497
00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 1: they're doing. They need that treatment. And so that's a

498
00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:10,280
Speaker 1: terrible way to go about it. But I think it's

499
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:12,879
Speaker 1: multi pronged. I mean, and it starts with, you know,

500
00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:17,439
Speaker 1: making sure that the prescriptions that are being issued aren't

501
00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:21,120
Speaker 1: done unnecessarily. You know, we saw in West Virginia where

502
00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:23,600
Speaker 1: you know, every person in the state could get you know,

503
00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:28,440
Speaker 1: thirty or sixty pills um. You know, that's ridiculous. Knowing

504
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 1: that the pharmaceutical companies know that they're making profits in

505
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:34,160
Speaker 1: these areas and know that not that many people need them,

506
00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:38,960
Speaker 1: that's one start. Treatments another start, and then making sure

507
00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 1: that there's some hope in the economy. Quite frankly, I mean,

508
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:44,520
Speaker 1: you know, we need to grow the economy. We need

509
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 1: opportunity for middle class people. We need after school programs,

510
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:53,040
Speaker 1: in summer school programs for kids. Uh in further education

511
00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:55,560
Speaker 1: on how addictive this is. You know, I tell my kids,

512
00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 1: I grew up in the nineties. I said, this is

513
00:28:57,320 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 1: not smoking a joint. I mean, this is the kind

514
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:01,480
Speaker 1: of straight I think we need to have with our kids.

515
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:04,280
Speaker 1: This isn't smoking a joint, This isn't sneaking a can

516
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:07,120
Speaker 1: of beer. This is something you do one time. It

517
00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 1: can it can kill you, but be it can get

518
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:11,680
Speaker 1: you so highly addicted, it will ruin the rest of

519
00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:13,680
Speaker 1: your life. And so I think there needs to be

520
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:15,560
Speaker 1: a lot of straight talk with our kids about what

521
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:18,520
Speaker 1: they're getting into if they even try this stuff and

522
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:21,840
Speaker 1: continue those programs, those treatment programs. And we've got to

523
00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 1: get some money into it. I mean, we we passed

524
00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:27,880
Speaker 1: the car A bill, Comprehensive Addiction Recovery Act Bill here

525
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 1: in Congress. We put a little bit of money behind it,

526
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:33,960
Speaker 1: but quite frankly, a billion dollars here, a billion dollars there.

527
00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:36,240
Speaker 1: We need divide it by fifty states and eighty eight

528
00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:40,720
Speaker 1: counties in Ohio. It's nothing. We need to really address

529
00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:43,600
Speaker 1: this for what it is, and that's a national epidemic.

530
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 1: David Jumping. Yeah, we're talking with Cosman Tim Ryan of

531
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:47,800
Speaker 1: the thirteenth District and how the co chairman of the

532
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 1: Addiction Treatment and Recovery Caucus. He's on our phone lines.

533
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:51,640
Speaker 1: Let me change directions here and ask you a bit

534
00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:55,640
Speaker 1: about parliamentary procedure. You were political science matri Bowling Green

535
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 1: State University. You know a little bit about it. A

536
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:00,480
Speaker 1: lot of people are watching what's happened in the Senate

537
00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:04,959
Speaker 1: today and wondering I think how how untraditional this is.

538
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:09,680
Speaker 1: You have a vote here on a procedural vote here

539
00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:12,320
Speaker 1: on a piece of legislation that none of them have seen.

540
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 1: How rare is that. What does that say about the

541
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:18,360
Speaker 1: state of our legislature, late legislature today. Well, I think

542
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 1: it's it speaks to the level of difficulty that, um,

543
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 1: you know, the Republicans are having right now trying to

544
00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:28,160
Speaker 1: get any consensus on a healthcare build to the point

545
00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:30,239
Speaker 1: where they can't even show it to you, And the

546
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:33,120
Speaker 1: fact that they're able to whip enough vote. I'm assuming

547
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:35,200
Speaker 1: if John McCain's coming into town the votes for this,

548
00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 1: that they have enough votes to get it passed. Um.

549
00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 1: But it's it's certainly a sign of the times. And

550
00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:42,959
Speaker 1: these are all the same folks who were saying that

551
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 1: the Democrats didn't read the bill or we didn't hold hearings.

552
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:48,320
Speaker 1: We held dozens of hearings on the on the healthcare

553
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 1: bill before we passed it. We had tons of public discussion,

554
00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:54,040
Speaker 1: tons of town hall meetings, and I think Democrats that

555
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:55,960
Speaker 1: were in all have the scars to prove it come

556
00:30:56,000 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 1: back then that we had a very public discussion about

557
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:00,800
Speaker 1: this stuff. You may not liked it, but we did

558
00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:03,880
Speaker 1: have a public discussion, and I think just the lack

559
00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:07,360
Speaker 1: of transparency and jam and the stuff through is a

560
00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:11,360
Speaker 1: sign of the political times that there is no real

561
00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:14,760
Speaker 1: seriousness within the Republican Party as far as what they

562
00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:17,320
Speaker 1: want to accomplish. That's the main issue. What do you

563
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 1: say to the constituent from Acuin or youngstand it comes

564
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 1: to you and said, look, I've been listening to the President,

565
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 1: I've been listening to the Republican leadership, and what I

566
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:25,880
Speaker 1: hear from them is that Democrats are not willing to

567
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:30,640
Speaker 1: engage on the issues, and on healthcare in particular. Yes,

568
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 1: there's the chaos unfolding here in the Senate. You can

569
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 1: attribute that in part to the to the Republican Party.

570
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:37,160
Speaker 1: But do you think Democrats have done enough to be

571
00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 1: a collaborative collegial with with Republican colleagues. Well, I've heard

572
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 1: Senator Schumer reach his hand down and say, okay, what

573
00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:47,680
Speaker 1: can we do together? And I know that the new

574
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 1: Democrats in the House provided uh number of different fixes

575
00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:54,400
Speaker 1: that they would be willing to sit down and talk

576
00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 1: about here in the House of Representatives. That's something that

577
00:31:57,560 --> 00:32:01,320
Speaker 1: I support being pretty straightforward saying okay, there are fixes.

578
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:05,320
Speaker 1: Obamacare is not perfect. Let's fix the problems. So there

579
00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:07,360
Speaker 1: have been a couple of initiatives in both I think

580
00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:10,040
Speaker 1: the House and the Senate to try to engage the

581
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 1: Republicans in that regard. But the bottom line is, we've

582
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:15,040
Speaker 1: got to figure out what are the goals here. I

583
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 1: think we've got to get clarity before you go into

584
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:19,360
Speaker 1: the negotiations, say what do you want? What do we want?

585
00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:22,880
Speaker 1: We were clear we wanted more coverage, more accessibility, and

586
00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 1: more protections from the insurance industry. And through that we've

587
00:32:26,040 --> 00:32:28,560
Speaker 1: got the Affordable Care Act and we passed it. We

588
00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:31,440
Speaker 1: covered twenty million more people. Now, by all accounts, the

589
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:34,280
Speaker 1: Republican bills in both the House and the Senate throw

590
00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:37,200
Speaker 1: two million people off of their health care and increase

591
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 1: premium seniors. So what's your goal? Is your goal to

592
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:43,480
Speaker 1: cover more people? Cover less people? You know, if you

593
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:46,160
Speaker 1: don't get clarity on the goal before you go into negotiation,

594
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:49,400
Speaker 1: you're not gonna have a very good negotiation. A question.

595
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:52,880
Speaker 1: And it's not about the Cleveland Browns. Uh, you know,

596
00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:58,680
Speaker 1: we're not. We're um. One of the trends that we

597
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 1: are seeing here among the qualified people that we speak

598
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 1: to When I say that with great respect, it's early.

599
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,960
Speaker 1: Is your party setting up to lose the House? You

600
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:13,440
Speaker 1: win nicely sixty seven of the vote in the thirteenth

601
00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:19,120
Speaker 1: Congressional district, But is there an urgency that your supermajority

602
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 1: in Washington just may mess this up enough to give

603
00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:26,000
Speaker 1: up the House. I know it's an early question, but

604
00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 1: is it in the back of your mind? Is it?

605
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:30,440
Speaker 1: Is it something that you talk about over beverage of

606
00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:34,680
Speaker 1: your choice at the Trump bar. Boy, you're hitting all

607
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:37,800
Speaker 1: my sweet spots here. Uh you know the Cleveland Browns

608
00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 1: beverage of Choice. I mean, you've got me nailed here, buddy.

609
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 1: Uh listen, Yeah, I am concerned that we are not

610
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 1: even after Monday, we are not clear on how the

611
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:52,760
Speaker 1: Democrats are better to grow the economy. And I think

612
00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:55,880
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, whether you're talking about opiates, education,

613
00:33:56,600 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 1: you know, the economy, healthcare, anything else, the idea of

614
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 1: we've got to be the party of growth and opportunity.

615
00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 1: We can't be the party that's hostile to business. And

616
00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 1: you know that too. You've got to help businesses grow

617
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:15,239
Speaker 1: and sometimes that takes public private partnership. Sometimes that does

618
00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:18,160
Speaker 1: take a lower corporate tax rate in order for our

619
00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:21,400
Speaker 1: small businesses to be able to compete and compete globally

620
00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:25,360
Speaker 1: if they need to. There's no there's no growth aspect

621
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 1: to what we're doing. I mean, I just think you

622
00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:30,480
Speaker 1: can't muddle together a bunch of tax credits and infrastructure

623
00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:35,400
Speaker 1: spending and call that an aspirational growth program. It's very transactional.

624
00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:37,279
Speaker 1: And so it's a step in the right direction. But

625
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 1: I really think we've got to develop some credibility and

626
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 1: some trust with the American people that we know how

627
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:45,239
Speaker 1: to get them back to work and get their wages up.

628
00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:47,799
Speaker 1: And and I don't I don't think we're there yet.

629
00:34:48,080 --> 00:34:49,960
Speaker 1: I think Monday was a step in the right direct,

630
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:52,239
Speaker 1: but we've got a long way to go. Don't be

631
00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:54,800
Speaker 1: a stranger. Call us again when the Browns two times

632
00:34:54,840 --> 00:34:58,719
Speaker 1: in a row. Timothy Ryan tim John Ryany is the

633
00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:04,960
Speaker 1: congressman congressional district in Ohio. David, I love when we

634
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:09,800
Speaker 1: do this, Yeah, I love when we do Democrat Republican Texas.

635
00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:13,560
Speaker 1: The middle of nowhere in Texas versus the background bone

636
00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:16,600
Speaker 1: of Ohio and old manufact that there's a flavor that

637
00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:19,040
Speaker 1: I must confess. I prefer to talking to a congressman

638
00:35:19,080 --> 00:35:20,879
Speaker 1: than a senator. I think that, you know, you get

639
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:23,839
Speaker 1: somebody who generally speaking, seems to be more in touch

640
00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:26,400
Speaker 1: with what is a smaller constituency than than the senators are.

641
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:28,279
Speaker 1: So you know, they got nature of the beast, they

642
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:30,600
Speaker 1: got the sweat, they got every twenty four months, they

643
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