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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg surveillance. The lows have been seen in

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Speaker 1: the commodity markets generally, whether it's in the soft whether

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Speaker 1: it's in the grains, whether it's in crude oil. Has

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Speaker 1: the FED laid out a new rationale for running monitory

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Speaker 1: policy other than looking at the labor market and looking

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Speaker 1: at inflation US We think that people have leapfrogged what

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Speaker 1: is reasonable into excessive worry. Bloomberg Surveillance your link to

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Speaker 1: the world of economics, finance, and investment on Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: Good Morning, I might Coael mc key along with Tom Keane.

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Speaker 1: It's seven am on Wall Street where we are five

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Speaker 1: weeks into a rally and counting stocks closed Friday up

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Speaker 1: for the year finally, and indications are we'll at least

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Speaker 1: start the day higher in the U S something we

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Speaker 1: haven't had for a while. A merger Monday. Among the

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Speaker 1: deals and ounce so far, data company i H just

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Speaker 1: buying market Shurewin Williams buying val Spar, and W. L

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Speaker 1: Ross buying chemical and plastics distributor next Eos Solutions has

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Speaker 1: also talked Monsanto is exploring deals with b A, s

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Speaker 1: F and Beer that's helping stocks in Europe right now,

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Speaker 1: the stock six hundred is we'll call it unchanged on

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Speaker 1: the day. The Docks Index at the moment is up

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Speaker 1: forty eight points half a percent. In the euro at

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Speaker 1: the moment is a liqupit higher one twelve eighty, not

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Speaker 1: a whole lot. Here In the US, futures are little changed.

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Speaker 1: We'll call the SNP up by a point. The Dow

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Speaker 1: futures are up thirteen points, that's a tenth of a percent,

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Speaker 1: and Anti one hundred evening features up by three points

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Speaker 1: right now a tenth as well. Dollar index is lower

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Speaker 1: still ninety five O four three heading for ninety four

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Speaker 1: perhaps h bonds at the moment, the ten year one

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Speaker 1: point eight seven or five year note going for one

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Speaker 1: point three three eight three basis points. The two year note.

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Speaker 1: Oil has been lower all morning, paired its losses. Brent

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Speaker 1: crude seen on a tenth West Texas at down one

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Speaker 1: point two percent. That's a little bit of drag on

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Speaker 1: stocks as well, but for the moment, in general, investors

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Speaker 1: shrugging off geopolitical concerns something Ian Bremer can't do. The

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Speaker 1: head of the Arasia Group worries for a living good morning. Uh,

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Speaker 1: there are a lot of things that could go wrong

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Speaker 1: out there. Obviously, what's the top thing or two that

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Speaker 1: likely will go wrong? What are you advising clients to

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Speaker 1: most watch out for. This is a weird environment because, um,

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Speaker 1: you have an enormous number of tail risks that are

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Speaker 1: things are that should be like not worry about at all,

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Speaker 1: that actually do have a meaningful prospect even though they're

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Speaker 1: not likely. So Brexit for example, or a Trump presidency

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Speaker 1: for example, Um, I mean a nine eleven, a true

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Speaker 1: nine eleven in continental Europe. Um, the implosion of a

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Speaker 1: Turkey or even of a Saudi Arabia. Those are the

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Speaker 1: sorts of things that you know. In the Cold War,

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Speaker 1: you had the Cuban missile crisis. You had a shot

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Speaker 1: that the whole damn world was gonna blow itself up,

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Speaker 1: but you couldn't really do anything about that, so you

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Speaker 1: just kind of ignored it. And if the markets blew up,

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Speaker 1: well everything else did too. Today it's not you don't

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Speaker 1: have the prospect of arm again. What you have is

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Speaker 1: a meaningful possibility that one of these ten horrible things

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Speaker 1: is actually gonna happen, and you don't know which one.

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Speaker 1: It's a much more complicated geopolitical environment if markets let

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Speaker 1: me just sat her up for a second. We have

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Speaker 1: another hot headline. Apparently, Marriott came back with a new

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Speaker 1: offer for Starwood thirty six cents a shared. Starwood now

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Speaker 1: says that's the superior proposal to end BANG. The Chinese

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Speaker 1: proposal came out the last week, so, um, the bidding

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Speaker 1: war underway for Starwood. Interestingly enough, you mentioned Cuba star

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Speaker 1: Wood uh signing a deal to open to manage hotels

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Speaker 1: in Cuba. Um, as long as the president's there, let's

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Speaker 1: start with that. That's not a threat, is it. I mean,

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Speaker 1: how does Cuba out? Well, first of all, I mean

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Speaker 1: you can't have star Ward go and open a few

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Speaker 1: hotels and then have the Chinese by Starwood in Cuba

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Speaker 1: because it's like the communism never left at that point, right,

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Speaker 1: So you know, there's just too much for me. I'm

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Speaker 1: glad Marriott came back. Um. Well, I mean Obama, this

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Speaker 1: is one of his biggest wins under his administration. His

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Speaker 1: administration is not replete with foreign policy wins. Most American

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Speaker 1: allies feel worse off today than they did when Obama

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Speaker 1: first came in. The world is certainly not in a

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Speaker 1: happier place, So I mean, if that's the way you

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Speaker 1: judge it on balance, you'd say it's negative. But I mean, Cuba,

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Speaker 1: this is we're talking fifty years now. Look at the

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Speaker 1: cars on Cuba streets and realize that the Americans haven't

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Speaker 1: been selling since people used to drive cars like that, right,

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Speaker 1: And and this this is long overdue. There's going to

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Speaker 1: be extraordinary tourism, is going to be extraordinary investment, and

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Speaker 1: the Cuban government itself won't be able to stand up

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Speaker 1: to it for very much longer. That's that's a positive.

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Speaker 1: That's a key question because the Cuban government hasn't seemed

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Speaker 1: very interested in a lot of what American companies are

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Speaker 1: shing down there and offer no. And it's precisely because

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Speaker 1: they understand that American style globalization will mean the end

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Speaker 1: of that regime pretty quickly. But the Cubans don't have

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Speaker 1: other places to turn. They're not getting huge cash from China,

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Speaker 1: the Soviet unions not around anymore, um, the Russians don't

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Speaker 1: really care. And the Venezuelans, who were the one hold

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Speaker 1: out that we're putting cash in, I mean, they're about

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Speaker 1: to default by the end of this year. And Maduro

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Speaker 1: is basically done. Low oil prices will do that to you.

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Speaker 1: So Cuba had nowhere else to go. And when the

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Speaker 1: Americans cracked their foot in the door. The relation, the

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Speaker 1: size of that relationship is so overwhelmingly asymmetrical that it's

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Speaker 1: going to be almost impossible for the Cuban government to

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Speaker 1: stand up and say, no, mass we can't handle it anymore. Right.

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Speaker 1: I noticed Tom that he had tweeted over the weekend, Uh,

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Speaker 1: they withstood fifty years of embargo, but can they withstand

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Speaker 1: Starbucks or five minutes of Starbucks as well? Good morning everyone.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Surveillance brought you by invest Goo to the day's headlines.

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Speaker 1: Have you searched for more investment views? Investcos experts can

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Speaker 1: help find out the latest thought leadership at the investco blog.

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Speaker 1: Visit investco dot com, slash us to subscribe. Ian Bremmer

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Speaker 1: with us With a huge bout of international relations going on,

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Speaker 1: the President goes to Cuba. I guess we have an

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Speaker 1: Obama doctrine. I guess that's open to debate. Do we

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Speaker 1: have a Clinton or Trump doctrine? Discernible? Yet? The Clinton doctrine,

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Speaker 1: certainly when she was Secretary of State I think was

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Speaker 1: pretty clear. It's that the Middle East is the past,

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Speaker 1: Asia is the future, China economics, but also security, that

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Speaker 1: the concern should be about the rise of China. You

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Speaker 1: want to get them on side. If you can't, you

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Speaker 1: want to have options. Their containment is an option if

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Speaker 1: the Chinese don't behave well. And that's both a security

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Speaker 1: concern but also a rise of state capitalism concern. So

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Speaker 1: I've think that Hillary laid that out. She certainly made

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Speaker 1: plenty of mistakes when she was Secretary of State. She

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Speaker 1: had some wins to um. But if you don't have

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Speaker 1: a problem with clarity of thinking for what she the

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Speaker 1: way that Hillary viewed the world um, and it's fairly

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Speaker 1: pragmatic too. I mean, she was the one that said

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Speaker 1: that on China that it's hard to lecture your banker

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Speaker 1: on human rights. And that's the kind of thing that

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Speaker 1: you wouldn't necessarily expect, for example, from some of the

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Speaker 1: you know, sort of more traditional indispensable America type leaders

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Speaker 1: that we've seen on the repolicy. Trump is going to

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Speaker 1: go before to be you know, I mean, I mean

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Speaker 1: it's within a general and respectful phrase, the Israeli lobby,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna learn more about Mr Trump's doctrine in the

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Speaker 1: coming weeks. Do you discern it at this time? Can

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Speaker 1: you give us a briefing on what you've seen so

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Speaker 1: far and foreign policy. I don't know why you'd think

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Speaker 1: we're going to learn anymore from Trump. We've gotten, you know,

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Speaker 1: Trump saturation coverage for about eight months now, and we've

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Speaker 1: learned nothing but repetition but disclosure. Ambassador Hass was on

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Speaker 1: from the Council for Relations. He made clear he speaks

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Speaker 1: to everyone. He talked to Trump, but he he talks

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Speaker 1: to everybody as well. Let's sefr Yeah. Well, I don't

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Speaker 1: have a problem with the fact that Richard hass runs

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Speaker 1: the most important foreign policy institution in this country, the

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Speaker 1: Counsel and Foreign Relations, And I think it's it's almost

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Speaker 1: incumbent on him, given his job to make himself available

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Speaker 1: to the to the candidates of any stripe on both sides,

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Speaker 1: Trump is the one that you might consider saying no

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Speaker 1: to simply because he reflects such a subversion of the

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Speaker 1: values that the Americans were actually created their system on.

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Speaker 1: But look, the fact is that Trump doesn't have foreign policy.

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Speaker 1: Trump has a set of excuses that are ready made

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Speaker 1: for American populism. They are. You're not feeling good, and

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Speaker 1: the reason for it is because you're being taken advantage

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Speaker 1: of by all of these other countries. And I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: give you permission to hate them. I'm gonna give you

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Speaker 1: permission to point the finger. It's their fault. It's a

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Speaker 1: very it's an American exceptionalism in a very narrow way.

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Speaker 1: And we're gonna blame the Mexicans for raping our women.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna blame the Europeans for taking advantage of our

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Speaker 1: security largesse and being refused to pay it freeloading. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna blame the Muslim States for creating terrorists that want

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Speaker 1: to come over and blow us up. And we're gonna

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Speaker 1: blame the Chinese and the Japanese from stealing us blind if.

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Speaker 1: If that's a doctrine, Uh, the average Americans should want

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Speaker 1: no part of it. What is it that we should

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Speaker 1: want in the next president? You mentioned that we Obama

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Speaker 1: leaves office with the US maybe in worse shape overseas

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Speaker 1: than it was. What we turn that around? What do

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Speaker 1: we need to do? Well? Look, I mean, some of it,

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Speaker 1: um is that it's just getting harder. Some of it

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Speaker 1: is that the world, the foreign policy influence for the

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Speaker 1: United States is going to be uphill because in the

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Speaker 1: Middle East there are no easy solutions. No one's offering them,

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Speaker 1: not the Democrats or the Republicans. And China increasingly has power,

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Speaker 1: economic power in particular, and is willing to use it

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Speaker 1: in ways that will subvert u s national interests. And

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Speaker 1: that's so it's just a harder slog for the Americans.

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Speaker 1: But what you don't want is for American allies to

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Speaker 1: not be certain that they can count on the commitments

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Speaker 1: that the Americans have set up for decades and decades.

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Speaker 1: You want the alliances to be If there's gonna be

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Speaker 1: a slip, you want that slip to be as incremental

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Speaker 1: as possible. You don't want the alliances falling apart. You

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Speaker 1: want people still wanting to use the dollar. You want

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Speaker 1: people still wanting to come to the US and study

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Speaker 1: and make lives here. Um. And you also want them

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Speaker 1: feeling that American influence and projection of power is significant.

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Speaker 1: Let's come back with Ian Bremer from your Asia group,

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Speaker 1: Tom A tough world. Yeah, it is interesting that there

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Speaker 1: lots to talk about with dr the career. The markets

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Speaker 1: very quiet right now, futures up one. That's our surveillance,

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Speaker 1: brought to you by MASDA White Planes. Visit MASDA White

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Speaker 1: Planes dot com. Here's Michael Barr with news headlines. Mike Tom,

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Speaker 1: thank you very much. President of bob and Cuban President

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Speaker 1: our Lekestro will sit down at Havannah's Palace of the

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Speaker 1: Revolution today. The president and his family arrived yesterday in Havannah.

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Speaker 1: President Raoul Castro will formally greet President Obama today. North

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Speaker 1: Korea is continuing its weapon launches. It is apparently carrying

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Speaker 1: out in response to South Korea the US military drills

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Speaker 1: it sees as a provocation. Soul officials say the North

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Speaker 1: fired five short range projectiles into the sea today. Vice

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Speaker 1: President Joe Biden defended President Obama's policy towards Israel and

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Speaker 1: took a swipe at Donald Trump. Biden, speaking to the

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Speaker 1: American Israel Public Affairs Committees policy conference in Washington yesterday,

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Speaker 1: said the future belongs to the bridge builders, not the

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Speaker 1: wall builders. Global News twenty four hours a day, powered

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Speaker 1: by our two hundred journalists and more than a hundred

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Speaker 1: fifty news bureaus from around the world. Michael Bar, Mike Tom,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much. Michael greatly appreciate it. With Ian

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Speaker 1: Bremer on America's foreign I we'll see this is Bloomberg's surveillance.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg surveillance brought you by your tri State BMW center's

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Speaker 1: visits of online at tri State BMW dot com. At BMW,

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Speaker 1: they make only one thing, the ultimate driving machine,