1
00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:04,560
Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named vest vetting Podcast or radio

2
00:00:04,640 --> 00:00:08,000
Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

3
00:00:08,160 --> 00:00:10,720
Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sportsman.

4
00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:14,720
Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

5
00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:24,320
Speaker 3: Fifteen puny, twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty forty five, fifty.

6
00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:29,320
Speaker 4: Get the Kicks, block book, Allege Football World Studer.

7
00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:33,920
Speaker 2: Oh my goodness.

8
00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:34,559
Speaker 3: It stumble the.

9
00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:38,600
Speaker 2: Lateral to a counter on.

10
00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:41,360
Speaker 4: The side, Get you the lad.

11
00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:44,800
Speaker 3: Table off the field tonight.

12
00:00:48,400 --> 00:00:51,280
Speaker 2: It's not the sage of the game in the fight,

13
00:00:51,640 --> 00:00:52,040
Speaker 2: it's the.

14
00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:58,400
Speaker 3: Sage of the fight. What's up the general nation? Welcome

15
00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:02,959
Speaker 3: to the Action Network Podcast. This is the college football

16
00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:07,280
Speaker 3: Championship weekend betting preview. I'm Stucky in with me as

17
00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:12,120
Speaker 3: always is Colin Wilson. You excited to talk some Illinois

18
00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:12,800
Speaker 3: Penn State.

19
00:01:13,400 --> 00:01:16,440
Speaker 2: What is a championship weekend unless we have some Rutgers

20
00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:20,000
Speaker 2: football in Mississippi State playing this weekend? But what other

21
00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:21,000
Speaker 2: kind of weekend would it be?

22
00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:22,760
Speaker 3: I wonder iful? Find a way to lose money on

23
00:01:22,760 --> 00:01:25,800
Speaker 3: Mississippi State again. All right, we'll have a segment later

24
00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:31,160
Speaker 3: in the show on just like our favorite non championship game.

25
00:01:31,400 --> 00:01:33,880
Speaker 3: You know, we'll do our underdog buddy line parlay we'll

26
00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:36,679
Speaker 3: throw in some college football playoff predictions, but the bulk

27
00:01:36,720 --> 00:01:39,000
Speaker 3: of the show, we're gonna get to all of the

28
00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:45,920
Speaker 3: conference championships across Friday and Saturday. So let's jump right

29
00:01:45,959 --> 00:01:47,800
Speaker 3: into it. We got a lot to get to. We'll

30
00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:52,520
Speaker 3: start Friday night, seven thirty Eastern on ESPN. We have

31
00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:54,440
Speaker 3: the MAC Championship. We have some maction.

32
00:01:56,400 --> 00:01:58,560
Speaker 2: Be kidding me, now, this is peak maction.

33
00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:04,160
Speaker 3: It is the peak Action ball State at bet MGM,

34
00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:06,760
Speaker 3: the official arts provider of the Action Network podcast is

35
00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:10,400
Speaker 3: a thirteen and a half point underdog over under sixty

36
00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:12,840
Speaker 3: seven and a half. I'll just let me get this

37
00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:14,280
Speaker 3: out of the way right now. Some people have been

38
00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:17,080
Speaker 3: dming me, what do we do with our ball? Like?

39
00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:20,399
Speaker 3: My only two features coming into this year were two

40
00:02:20,440 --> 00:02:23,520
Speaker 3: conference features Florida to win the SEC Ball State, to

41
00:02:23,600 --> 00:02:27,880
Speaker 3: win the MAC ball State have nine to one Florida.

42
00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:30,760
Speaker 3: I have I think five or seven to one. So

43
00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:32,960
Speaker 3: you know, you can't get as good of a price

44
00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:35,000
Speaker 3: on ball State. Now you can get pretty much a

45
00:02:35,000 --> 00:02:37,800
Speaker 3: similar price in Florida. What can you do to hedge? Like,

46
00:02:37,880 --> 00:02:40,120
Speaker 3: I'm not hedging. I'm hoping one just pulls off the upset.

47
00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:41,840
Speaker 3: If you wanted the hedge thout, you could just throw

48
00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:43,919
Speaker 3: a moneyline parlay if you had both. You could throw

49
00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:48,560
Speaker 3: moneyline parlay in of Alabama and of Buffalo if you

50
00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:50,640
Speaker 3: wanted to just like get your en Sure you get

51
00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:53,639
Speaker 3: your money back, but even then that's gonna be pretty expensive.

52
00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:56,320
Speaker 3: It's not the most hedgeable. They're not the most heedgeable

53
00:02:56,440 --> 00:02:59,480
Speaker 3: conference futures because Alabama and Buffalo both got there from

54
00:02:59,480 --> 00:03:01,680
Speaker 3: each division. So I'm just letting them ride personally, But

55
00:03:02,480 --> 00:03:06,239
Speaker 3: looking at this game, I think that this line the

56
00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:07,919
Speaker 3: first of ball is too high. Now, Caleb Huntley, the

57
00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:10,320
Speaker 3: start running back for Ball State, He's out again, which

58
00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:13,359
Speaker 3: is gonna hurt. But I have questions about this Buffalo

59
00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:16,160
Speaker 3: team and I'll tell you why. And this is one

60
00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:18,000
Speaker 3: of the most fascinating things about this weekend. And some

61
00:03:18,040 --> 00:03:20,679
Speaker 3: of these teams have sample sizes of five games, right,

62
00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:24,080
Speaker 3: and a lot of those games came against horrible competition.

63
00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:26,959
Speaker 3: So if you look at Buffalo, obviously you start with

64
00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:29,880
Speaker 3: Jared Patterson. I mean, it's ridiculous. He's over a thousand

65
00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:32,320
Speaker 3: yards in a shortened season, eight point three yards per carry,

66
00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:36,080
Speaker 3: scored eighteen touchdowns. Buffalo leads the nation and yards per play,

67
00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:39,360
Speaker 3: rush yards for play scoring offense, blah blah. Their offensive

68
00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:42,280
Speaker 3: line is I mean number one in pass efficiency, number

69
00:03:42,320 --> 00:03:44,600
Speaker 3: one in line yards, number one in adjustin zach Ray.

70
00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:48,120
Speaker 3: I mean, it's insane. But if and if you look

71
00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:49,840
Speaker 3: at ball State, ball State hasn't allowed a lot of

72
00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:52,000
Speaker 3: explosive plays, but they've been outside the top hundred and

73
00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:55,440
Speaker 3: rush success rate, which is a little scary. But this

74
00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:59,280
Speaker 3: is a Buffalo offense. Will start with the offense, and I

75
00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:02,240
Speaker 3: have questions about all three phases. Every number looks elite,

76
00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:04,240
Speaker 3: but it's an offense that last year their offensive line

77
00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:06,400
Speaker 3: was elite, and they do bring it back an NFL

78
00:04:06,440 --> 00:04:09,880
Speaker 3: caliber tackle, but they lost three starters, so is their

79
00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:13,080
Speaker 3: offensive line still this elite look? You have to adjust

80
00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:14,839
Speaker 3: it for the opponent. There are five games, but here's

81
00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:17,280
Speaker 3: who they played. They forty percent of their games came

82
00:04:17,279 --> 00:04:19,960
Speaker 3: against Bowling Green and Akron. Their others came against Northern

83
00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:21,960
Speaker 3: Illinois and Kent State. Those are two of the other

84
00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:24,479
Speaker 3: three worst run defenses in the country. And then mya

85
00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:27,479
Speaker 3: Ohio's defensive line loss of pros. All those defenses I

86
00:04:27,520 --> 00:04:29,440
Speaker 3: have outside the top one hundred. The line yards of

87
00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:31,800
Speaker 3: the opponents on those defenses one hundred and twenty seven

88
00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:34,320
Speaker 3: hundred and seventeen eighty third eighty eighty eight. Ball State

89
00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:37,080
Speaker 3: is at least eight. So they were playing some really

90
00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:40,839
Speaker 3: small defensive lines and bad run defenses and were able

91
00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:43,599
Speaker 3: just to abuse them. You saw that against Kent State.

92
00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:45,279
Speaker 3: Buffalo is gonna be able to run the ball and

93
00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:47,120
Speaker 3: Patterson is gonna get his yards. That's not the question here.

94
00:04:47,160 --> 00:04:49,160
Speaker 3: My question is it like, is it as elite as

95
00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:52,000
Speaker 3: we've seen, and can ball State get a couple stops

96
00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:54,920
Speaker 3: that's gonna take, because I do also have questions about

97
00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:59,760
Speaker 3: the Buffalo defense. They've only faced one offense all year

98
00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:01,960
Speaker 3: that's the top one hundred, that's Kent State, and Kent

99
00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:04,920
Speaker 3: State statistically put up close to six hundred yards, put

100
00:05:04,960 --> 00:05:06,960
Speaker 3: up over forty points. They moved the ball all day.

101
00:05:07,320 --> 00:05:11,000
Speaker 3: There were some fourth down flukes and even Northern Illinois

102
00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:13,880
Speaker 3: put up thirty points, and there was some turnover flukes

103
00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:15,920
Speaker 3: in that game. And then what are you left with?

104
00:05:15,960 --> 00:05:18,880
Speaker 3: You left with the Akron and bowling green and still

105
00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:21,200
Speaker 3: despite that schedule, they're seventy fifth and EPA per pass

106
00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:24,600
Speaker 3: at tenth eighty third exposive play rate. I have some

107
00:05:24,680 --> 00:05:26,719
Speaker 3: questions about this Buffalo defense, and you were talking about

108
00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:28,480
Speaker 3: this early on in the year and they played Northern Illinois.

109
00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:29,840
Speaker 3: They were just getting a lot of flukes and their

110
00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:32,440
Speaker 3: schedule was just an absolute joke. So I think Drew

111
00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:34,839
Speaker 3: Plitt will be able to move the ball some here.

112
00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:37,520
Speaker 3: And then the last phase is Buffalo special teams are

113
00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:40,400
Speaker 3: among the worst in the nation. Again, they're horrible. Ball

114
00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:44,000
Speaker 3: State special teams are elite for a MAC team. MAC

115
00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:47,320
Speaker 3: teams are usually like the worst special teams in the nation,

116
00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:49,640
Speaker 3: like one hundred and tenth, hundred and twenty eight hundred

117
00:05:49,640 --> 00:05:51,719
Speaker 3: and twenty fifth in the nation, which is where Buffalo is.

118
00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:54,680
Speaker 3: Ball State, I have like is a little bit above average.

119
00:05:54,720 --> 00:05:58,520
Speaker 3: So I think this line without Huntley should be I

120
00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:02,000
Speaker 3: could argue it's ten if you want, and I really

121
00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:05,000
Speaker 3: stretch my imaginason how good this? But now, baby Buffalo,

122
00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:07,120
Speaker 3: They're offense line is this elite and they're just the

123
00:06:07,120 --> 00:06:11,159
Speaker 3: best offensive line ever now, But there are some questions

124
00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:13,440
Speaker 3: I have with Buffalo. So I made this app without

125
00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:15,520
Speaker 3: Huntley because it's a big drop off to their backup

126
00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:18,720
Speaker 3: nine and a half. So as soon as I got

127
00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:20,400
Speaker 3: a chance to get fourteen and I would buy it

128
00:06:20,440 --> 00:06:24,400
Speaker 3: to fourteen, I did, so I like ball State and

129
00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:26,040
Speaker 3: I think they'll have a shot here.

130
00:06:26,640 --> 00:06:29,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely a game that I had to grit my

131
00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:31,080
Speaker 2: teeth when I put it in the Action app Ball

132
00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:33,640
Speaker 2: State at fourteen. Once it got to fourteen this week,

133
00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:36,520
Speaker 2: I knew this was the buying point. I don't know

134
00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:38,800
Speaker 2: how long it's gonna last, and I'm risking the fact

135
00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:42,640
Speaker 2: that maybe it goes even higher. But from a projection standpoint,

136
00:06:42,920 --> 00:06:45,880
Speaker 2: you just heard Stuck on what he makes it. I

137
00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:48,160
Speaker 2: make it six and a half if you like sp

138
00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:50,320
Speaker 2: plus seven and a half, if you like Sagur and

139
00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:53,560
Speaker 2: they make it nine. No one in the world makes

140
00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:56,240
Speaker 2: it this number. And you know, really, we could back

141
00:06:56,279 --> 00:06:58,480
Speaker 2: this up by telling you that Saguran has a strength

142
00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:02,360
Speaker 2: of schedule for Buffalo at one hundred and fortieth one

143
00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:04,320
Speaker 2: hundred and fortieth, and then when they did face a

144
00:07:04,360 --> 00:07:07,760
Speaker 2: capable offense like Ken State, you heard Stuck say exactly

145
00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:10,160
Speaker 2: how many yards they put up. And so it's really

146
00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:13,280
Speaker 2: futile for me to sit here and tell you that

147
00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:16,800
Speaker 2: Buffalo's number one in finishing drives, Buffalo's number one in

148
00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:18,640
Speaker 2: line yards. When you play in the Mac East, you're

149
00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:20,120
Speaker 2: supposed to have those kinds of numbers.

150
00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:23,559
Speaker 3: So if you look your games this year, we're against

151
00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:26,200
Speaker 3: accurate and bowling greens like that's that's that's normally. Like

152
00:07:26,200 --> 00:07:27,480
Speaker 3: if you were to play four out of your ten

153
00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:29,400
Speaker 3: normal games against those two teams.

154
00:07:29,320 --> 00:07:31,840
Speaker 2: Which is going to make this Bowl season the handicapping

155
00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:34,200
Speaker 2: the Bowl season. When your strength of schedule is reliant

156
00:07:34,280 --> 00:07:36,400
Speaker 2: upon the division that you played in, it's just it's

157
00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:39,360
Speaker 2: going to be wild, absolutely wild. Like of course you're

158
00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:41,400
Speaker 2: going to take a two or three win team out

159
00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:44,000
Speaker 2: of the SEC to beat another team from another conference

160
00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:46,520
Speaker 2: with six wins, because that's just how it works. Anyways,

161
00:07:46,760 --> 00:07:49,080
Speaker 2: back to this game, and nobody in the MAC has

162
00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:51,880
Speaker 2: been able to stop Patterson. Nobody's been able to stop

163
00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:54,080
Speaker 2: Jared Patterson. He looks like Barry Sanders and now he

164
00:07:54,080 --> 00:07:56,920
Speaker 2: gets to play in Detroit. He's so shifty. He has

165
00:07:56,960 --> 00:07:59,360
Speaker 2: the highest yards after contact of any running back in

166
00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:03,320
Speaker 2: the nation, five point two yards after a defender first

167
00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:06,600
Speaker 2: touches him. I know they're playing Acron and all these

168
00:08:06,640 --> 00:08:08,840
Speaker 2: other shitty teams, but five point two yards after you've

169
00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:12,360
Speaker 2: first been touched is pretty amazing. The weakness really, and

170
00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:14,520
Speaker 2: we mentioned that in Northern Illinois is on the defense,

171
00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:16,520
Speaker 2: seventy fifth in line yards, one hundred and sixteenth and

172
00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:19,600
Speaker 2: stuff rate, and we just mentioned one hundred and fortieth

173
00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:21,760
Speaker 2: strength to schedule, so that's pretty bad. That means ball

174
00:08:21,760 --> 00:08:24,920
Speaker 2: State should have some success. That should give you some

175
00:08:24,960 --> 00:08:28,440
Speaker 2: confidence in getting the fourteen. And they're highly successful in

176
00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:32,120
Speaker 2: standard downs, but there's zero explosiveness. The Cardinals have been

177
00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:35,080
Speaker 2: the most successful in passing downs second and third and

178
00:08:35,160 --> 00:08:38,480
Speaker 2: long their fifteenth and success rate, and they're sixteenth in EPA,

179
00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:40,880
Speaker 2: which means they're going to be able to make some

180
00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:44,360
Speaker 2: things happen third and long, second and long things like that.

181
00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:46,680
Speaker 2: The ball State defense hasn't been able to stop a

182
00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:50,560
Speaker 2: stable of Macwest high powered offenses. We're talking top thirty

183
00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:53,520
Speaker 2: in defensive EPA, but they're one hundred and seventh and

184
00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:56,000
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty second success rate. That's a ground

185
00:08:56,040 --> 00:08:59,080
Speaker 2: air split there, So outside the top one hundred in

186
00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:04,000
Speaker 2: success rate defensively, that's not good. It spells great things

187
00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:07,840
Speaker 2: for Buffalo. To me, the biggest difference in this game,

188
00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:10,520
Speaker 2: if you want to splice all the advanced stats, and

189
00:09:10,559 --> 00:09:13,320
Speaker 2: I know that they're Mac stats, but the biggest difference

190
00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:16,280
Speaker 2: in the game is Buffalo offensively on standard downs is

191
00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:20,760
Speaker 2: first in the nation and success rate ball State's defense

192
00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:24,960
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty first defensively success rate standard downs,

193
00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:28,480
Speaker 2: Buffalo is going to eat on first and second down.

194
00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:31,200
Speaker 2: They're going to have the shortest yardage on third down

195
00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:33,080
Speaker 2: of anybody. I'd be shocked if they were in third

196
00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:36,120
Speaker 2: and long at any point in the game. And one

197
00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:38,520
Speaker 2: thing that really leads me to my bet is the

198
00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:40,920
Speaker 2: fact that ball State's tempo is ninth in the country.

199
00:09:41,080 --> 00:09:42,680
Speaker 2: So let me get this straight. The other team is

200
00:09:42,720 --> 00:09:45,360
Speaker 2: going to be able to have explosive runs in standard downs.

201
00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:48,680
Speaker 2: Early downs probably score pretty fast, and then your tempo

202
00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:51,160
Speaker 2: is top ten in the country. I think there could

203
00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:54,640
Speaker 2: be a ton of possessions here. Normal possessions eleven twelve

204
00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:56,600
Speaker 2: per team in a college football game. There could be

205
00:09:56,600 --> 00:09:59,160
Speaker 2: seventeen here. And what that means is I think that

206
00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:01,320
Speaker 2: there's going to be a a ton of points. Now,

207
00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:03,320
Speaker 2: if you're looking to split this up about when to

208
00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:05,959
Speaker 2: get in on Buffalo, maybe you're not too excited about

209
00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:09,040
Speaker 2: ball State and the number Buffalo's highest point differential in

210
00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:10,720
Speaker 2: the nation is in the third quarter. You're gonna hear

211
00:10:10,760 --> 00:10:12,520
Speaker 2: a lot about a lot of that on the podcast.

212
00:10:12,920 --> 00:10:14,839
Speaker 2: But they are the top third quarter team in the

213
00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:17,960
Speaker 2: nation with a plus fifteen differential. The changes at lance

214
00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:20,959
Speaker 2: Leipold is making in the locker room during halftime has

215
00:10:21,000 --> 00:10:23,440
Speaker 2: been better than anybody in the nation. I will go

216
00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:25,240
Speaker 2: back to the one hundred and forty a strength of schedule,

217
00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:27,600
Speaker 2: but I would say, if you're going to grab on

218
00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:30,000
Speaker 2: to ball State, just keep in mind third quarter is

219
00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:33,360
Speaker 2: Buffalo's best. Amazing stat here and twenty one red zone

220
00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:37,960
Speaker 2: trips for Buffalo. They've scored twenty touchdowns. I know strength

221
00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:40,720
Speaker 2: of schedule. The play for me ball State at fourteen.

222
00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:44,360
Speaker 2: If he gets back there, Buffalo's team total over and

223
00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:47,480
Speaker 2: over sixty six. Maybe a little bit of money. If

224
00:10:47,520 --> 00:10:50,120
Speaker 2: ball State has any chance whatsoever to win this game,

225
00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:53,920
Speaker 2: this number will sail over the total.

226
00:10:56,840 --> 00:10:59,120
Speaker 3: Yup, I a grab me Buffalo is a stale but uh,

227
00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:01,640
Speaker 3: it's hard to see either one of these teams getting

228
00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:05,160
Speaker 3: too many stops without some fluke maction. That's the mac

229
00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:10,040
Speaker 3: goball State Detroit or bust I love I love maction.

230
00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:17,000
Speaker 3: Let's move on to another conference championship game on Friday night.

231
00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:18,920
Speaker 3: Tuck some Pac twelve.

232
00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:21,800
Speaker 2: Oh my god, who cash?

233
00:11:21,920 --> 00:11:25,120
Speaker 3: This game was supposed to not be This game This

234
00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:28,120
Speaker 3: is how crazy twenty twenty is supposed to be. USC Washington.

235
00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:30,640
Speaker 3: Washington couldn't play, so they just say, hey, Oregon, come

236
00:11:30,679 --> 00:11:33,760
Speaker 3: play the Back twelve Championship at bet MGM. Oregon is

237
00:11:33,760 --> 00:11:36,480
Speaker 3: a three and a half point underdog over under sixty

238
00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:40,080
Speaker 3: three and a half. I could tell you I played

239
00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:43,240
Speaker 3: the over here. I mean, the Oregon offense has been

240
00:11:43,320 --> 00:11:45,960
Speaker 3: really good. My guy Joe Mohead, who I really like.

241
00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:49,320
Speaker 3: They lost Herbert, they lost maybe the best offensive lineman

242
00:11:49,679 --> 00:11:53,440
Speaker 3: in college football who opted out. The Oregon offense has

243
00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:56,200
Speaker 3: been awesome. They've just been really unlucky. They're fourth worst

244
00:11:56,280 --> 00:11:58,880
Speaker 3: nationally in turnover margin per game and minus one point

245
00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:01,080
Speaker 3: four They lost seven fumble turned four picks in just

246
00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:03,920
Speaker 3: seven games. But they have two junior running backs c J.

247
00:12:04,040 --> 00:12:06,960
Speaker 3: Vertellen Travis Dye that lead a rushing attack that is

248
00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:09,560
Speaker 3: one of twenty in the country to average at least

249
00:12:09,559 --> 00:12:11,640
Speaker 3: five point two yards per carry. I think I'll have

250
00:12:11,679 --> 00:12:14,079
Speaker 3: a field down the ground against the USC. Their run

251
00:12:14,160 --> 00:12:18,000
Speaker 3: defense is really weak and from a deficiency perspective, Oregon's

252
00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:20,640
Speaker 3: top five in the nation on the ground, and they

253
00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:24,040
Speaker 3: have a mobile quarterback Tyler Schuck, who we've seen the

254
00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:26,320
Speaker 3: Trojans have struggled with mobile quarterbacks in the past two

255
00:12:26,360 --> 00:12:29,040
Speaker 3: years and earlier this year when they played Arizona State,

256
00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:31,760
Speaker 3: so that could come in to play. But just overall,

257
00:12:31,800 --> 00:12:33,920
Speaker 3: Oregon's top ten in yards per play, and it's just

258
00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:37,080
Speaker 3: been a really good offense. It's been pretty unlucky. So

259
00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:39,880
Speaker 3: there's positive aggression that looms here and that could certainly

260
00:12:39,880 --> 00:12:42,920
Speaker 3: happen against the USC defense that has its holes on

261
00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:45,520
Speaker 3: the other side of the ball. UFC's offense, they can't

262
00:12:45,559 --> 00:12:47,400
Speaker 3: really run it, but they can throw it, and they're

263
00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:49,880
Speaker 3: really efficient doing it with Kelton Slovas and their receivers,

264
00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:53,280
Speaker 3: and Oregon's defense has been bad. It's allowed four point

265
00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:56,400
Speaker 3: six yards per rush, so maybe it's outside the top eighty.

266
00:12:56,440 --> 00:13:00,000
Speaker 3: Maybe USC ken have some success running it. But more importantly,

267
00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:02,760
Speaker 3: there's seventy fourth and passing success rate. Yeah, they haven't

268
00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:04,839
Speaker 3: allowed a lot of explosive plays, but this is the

269
00:13:04,880 --> 00:13:06,559
Speaker 3: air rate. I think that services will be able to

270
00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:08,880
Speaker 3: move the ball up and down the field through the air,

271
00:13:09,120 --> 00:13:11,680
Speaker 3: and that shouldn't be surprising with the Oregon I mean,

272
00:13:11,760 --> 00:13:13,120
Speaker 3: this is supposed to be one of the best defenses

273
00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:16,040
Speaker 3: in the country. But Brady Breeze Javon Hilan, Thomas Graham.

274
00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:18,480
Speaker 3: They all opted out all starters in their secondary a

275
00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:20,760
Speaker 3: lot of NFL talent. They also don't get any pressure

276
00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:24,520
Speaker 3: and opposing quarterbacks ninety seventh at sack right, So I

277
00:13:24,559 --> 00:13:26,480
Speaker 3: think USC will be able to move the ball. And

278
00:13:26,520 --> 00:13:28,880
Speaker 3: if USC's down late, we know those score three touchdowns

279
00:13:28,920 --> 00:13:31,160
Speaker 3: in the final minute, so that'll help the over which

280
00:13:31,160 --> 00:13:33,679
Speaker 3: I like here if you haven't been able to tell,

281
00:13:34,679 --> 00:13:37,800
Speaker 3: and then you know. So I played it at sixty two,

282
00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:39,040
Speaker 3: I played it at sixty two and a half and

283
00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:41,920
Speaker 3: sixty three. I like it up to sixty four if

284
00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:44,200
Speaker 3: I make it like sixty seven. These aren't the two

285
00:13:44,200 --> 00:13:46,160
Speaker 3: fastest offenses in the world, which is the only conservative

286
00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:48,480
Speaker 3: I just don't see many stops. These are two defenses

287
00:13:48,480 --> 00:13:50,560
Speaker 3: that are outside the top seventy and yards per play

288
00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:54,840
Speaker 3: allowed outside the top fifty on third downs, So I

289
00:13:54,880 --> 00:13:58,240
Speaker 3: think both offenses move the chains here and move the

290
00:13:58,240 --> 00:14:01,160
Speaker 3: ball efficiently. So I think this is a high scoring game.

291
00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:04,160
Speaker 3: So I took some over. I think that the line

292
00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:06,839
Speaker 3: is pretty spot on. But I think you're gonna argue

293
00:14:06,880 --> 00:14:08,240
Speaker 3: for the Ducks, which I can't hate because I mean,

294
00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:10,439
Speaker 3: USC seems like they escape every week.

295
00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:13,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, they do. And you know, two key points for

296
00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:16,960
Speaker 2: or over is really offensive finishing drives. They have major

297
00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:20,960
Speaker 2: advantages over their opposing defensive units. Oregon is top twenty

298
00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:24,800
Speaker 2: five in finishing drives. USC is sixty first in defensive

299
00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:28,000
Speaker 2: finishing drives. You know, the same split exists on the

300
00:14:28,040 --> 00:14:29,880
Speaker 2: other side of the ball. So that's really a good

301
00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:33,360
Speaker 2: indicator for the over And yeah, I could absolutely see

302
00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:36,840
Speaker 2: see this be a shootout, but it comes back to

303
00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:40,160
Speaker 2: my mind that USC is on six days rest, Organ's

304
00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:42,320
Speaker 2: on thirteen. And you say, well, Oregon didn't know that

305
00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:44,440
Speaker 2: they were going to play USC, so they got it. Well,

306
00:14:44,640 --> 00:14:46,840
Speaker 2: you know, it's the air raid. They've seen it before,

307
00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:50,040
Speaker 2: they know how to defend it. I'm not you know,

308
00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:52,400
Speaker 2: that's really not a strong argument for me. It's more

309
00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:54,600
Speaker 2: like the health of the USC players with the number

310
00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:58,080
Speaker 2: of days that they've had off, you know, even though

311
00:14:58,080 --> 00:15:00,640
Speaker 2: that they are playing at home or and has some

312
00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:03,880
Speaker 2: very impressive offensive numbers. And if you haven't been paying attention,

313
00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:08,000
Speaker 2: they entered this season with the lowest returning production rank

314
00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:10,840
Speaker 2: on offense. And that was back when we thought we

315
00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:13,480
Speaker 2: were going to have a normal year. That was back

316
00:15:13,560 --> 00:15:15,760
Speaker 2: before anybody in this world was wearing a mask. We

317
00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:18,560
Speaker 2: knew that Orgon on offense was going to struggle big

318
00:15:18,600 --> 00:15:20,840
Speaker 2: time and that the strength, the reason why we were

319
00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:22,720
Speaker 2: buying futures on Oregon with the strength was going to

320
00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:25,200
Speaker 2: be the defense. So Joe Moorehead comes in and you

321
00:15:25,280 --> 00:15:27,600
Speaker 2: have to be impressed by some of these numbers third

322
00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:30,840
Speaker 2: in the country and rushing success rate twelfth in the country.

323
00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:34,840
Speaker 2: And pass explosiveness on offense, yeah, they're ninety fourth and

324
00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:38,560
Speaker 2: havoc allowed, so that means they're allowing tackles for loss,

325
00:15:38,560 --> 00:15:41,440
Speaker 2: they're fumbling the ball and the reason for that is

326
00:15:41,440 --> 00:15:43,560
Speaker 2: they're so young. Because of the youth movement that's been

327
00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:46,160
Speaker 2: going on, especially at the quarterback position, offensive line has

328
00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:48,560
Speaker 2: had to fill some holes and that's where and that's

329
00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:50,600
Speaker 2: what that number is only going to improve. So Oregon,

330
00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:53,080
Speaker 2: you know the crystal Ball information, you know, getting a

331
00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:55,400
Speaker 2: new contract Auburn makes everybody rich. By the way, just

332
00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:57,840
Speaker 2: say that was a side note, but chrystal Ball getting

333
00:15:57,880 --> 00:16:00,240
Speaker 2: this new contract, Oregon is going to continue to be

334
00:16:00,760 --> 00:16:04,120
Speaker 2: a buy on team as crystal Ball continues to field

335
00:16:04,160 --> 00:16:07,280
Speaker 2: a defense that can probably hang with some the SEC team.

336
00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:08,800
Speaker 2: So we'll see how this turns out for the Ducks

337
00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:12,200
Speaker 2: long term. But yeah, I do like Orgon here a lot.

338
00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:15,520
Speaker 2: Everything from the offensive side that I said, there are

339
00:16:15,560 --> 00:16:17,520
Speaker 2: problems on the defense. You know, the problem for orgon

340
00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:19,600
Speaker 2: On defense has been the opt outs from the beginning

341
00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:21,720
Speaker 2: of the season. Forty nine missed tackles and three hundred

342
00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:24,400
Speaker 2: and forty nine defensive snaps. They do rank tenth in

343
00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:26,800
Speaker 2: defense in EPA, so they have been able to stop

344
00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:30,480
Speaker 2: some explosive plays. Noah Seule their highest graded player and

345
00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:33,400
Speaker 2: pass covers or linebacker, and you know, really from a

346
00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:37,520
Speaker 2: pressure standpoint, Kveon Thibodeau has fourteen hurries, which is double

347
00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:39,680
Speaker 2: than anybody else on the team for organ So those

348
00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:41,720
Speaker 2: are two very important pieces on the defense. I'm not

349
00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:43,760
Speaker 2: saying it's all world and it's going to be able

350
00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:45,440
Speaker 2: to shut the scoring down in this game. I'm just

351
00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:47,960
Speaker 2: saying those are two very important names to know. USC

352
00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:49,520
Speaker 2: is going to be out with it be without their

353
00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:51,400
Speaker 2: star running back, and I think that's a big part

354
00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:55,280
Speaker 2: of this handicap. The reason why I'm playing Oregon flat

355
00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:58,000
Speaker 2: out is third downs. Both sides of the ball. They

356
00:16:58,040 --> 00:17:02,120
Speaker 2: have the advantage finishing drives, have the advantage rushing the ball.

357
00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:05,800
Speaker 2: They have the advantage. USC is without their starting running back,

358
00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:07,600
Speaker 2: and you say, well, it's an air raid offense and

359
00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:09,639
Speaker 2: they don't run that much, but they do lean on

360
00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:13,200
Speaker 2: the running game when it's short yardage situations, when they

361
00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:14,520
Speaker 2: just need a couple of yards they need to pick

362
00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:16,119
Speaker 2: up us. He has not been able to do that

363
00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:18,639
Speaker 2: all year long. Outside the top one hundred line yards

364
00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:21,760
Speaker 2: power success stuff. Right, They've been terrible running the ball

365
00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:23,800
Speaker 2: and controlling the trench. And now they don't have their

366
00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:26,680
Speaker 2: starting running back, Stephen Carr is still there. Not the

367
00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:30,159
Speaker 2: same production one hundred and twenty six of rush explosiveness

368
00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:33,280
Speaker 2: part of the handicap, not the entire handicap. You know,

369
00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:36,399
Speaker 2: I think Oregon, because of this, because of these running

370
00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:39,760
Speaker 2: the running back being injured for USC, they're going to

371
00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:41,399
Speaker 2: allow They're going to be able to rush three and

372
00:17:41,480 --> 00:17:43,240
Speaker 2: drop eight. I mean, they're going to be able to

373
00:17:43,280 --> 00:17:46,000
Speaker 2: play what you should be able to against an air

374
00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:47,840
Speaker 2: raid offense. So I think that really works in the

375
00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:51,160
Speaker 2: advantage for organ besides having a whole bunch more extra rest.

376
00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:53,600
Speaker 2: If you look at Orgon, they've allowed just two passes

377
00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:56,679
Speaker 2: over forty yards a fifteen over twenty in five games.

378
00:17:56,720 --> 00:17:59,600
Speaker 2: So you know, they've allowed it around the twenty yard range.

379
00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:01,600
Speaker 2: But Lovas is going to try to go thirty plus.

380
00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:04,840
Speaker 2: It ain't gonna happen against Oregon. USC Like I mentioned,

381
00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:08,440
Speaker 2: we bet usc last week and they had a massive comeback.

382
00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:10,440
Speaker 2: We got away with having one there. I mean four

383
00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:13,760
Speaker 2: percent postgame win expectancy over UCLA. If you play that

384
00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:16,760
Speaker 2: game one hundred times, UCLA had win it ninety six times.

385
00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:19,359
Speaker 2: Stuck was right, he hit the nail on the head.

386
00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:23,400
Speaker 2: Jaden Daniels with Arizona State dual threat gave USC all

387
00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:26,520
Speaker 2: that they could handle. I think Oregon's rushing offense should

388
00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:29,239
Speaker 2: dominate the clock. Duck should be in control of this

389
00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:33,080
Speaker 2: game from beginning to end. Pass explosiveness is such a

390
00:18:33,080 --> 00:18:35,040
Speaker 2: big deal. And if the pass is not there, Tyler

391
00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:37,560
Speaker 2: Show has been able to take off and run USC

392
00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:41,840
Speaker 2: defense outside the top fifty in third down conversions. The

393
00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:45,800
Speaker 2: Ducks are fifteenth offensively in third down conversions. Ducks in

394
00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:48,679
Speaker 2: an upset, I don't think you need the points. And

395
00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:51,440
Speaker 2: yet again the Pac twelve finds a way to eat

396
00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:54,719
Speaker 2: themselves up as far as undefeated teams and getting national attention.

397
00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:56,080
Speaker 3: Don't hate it.

398
00:18:56,800 --> 00:19:02,119
Speaker 2: We lost a few games. Now we're the Ducks. Ducks

399
00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:03,000
Speaker 2: are undefeated.

400
00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:18,960
Speaker 3: Run quack all right, yeah, I mean just plus, it

401
00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:22,560
Speaker 3: just feels like the USC magic has to run out eventually.

402
00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:27,000
Speaker 3: We do have one other conference championship game on Friday night,

403
00:19:27,040 --> 00:19:31,000
Speaker 3: and no it's not Nebraska Rutgers. The Conference USA Championship

404
00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:34,520
Speaker 3: seven Eastern on CBS Sports Network at bet MGM. UAB

405
00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:37,040
Speaker 3: is a four and a half point underdog at Marshall

406
00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:41,520
Speaker 3: over under forty two and a half. I mean, I

407
00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:43,440
Speaker 3: feel like I haven't seen any of these either of

408
00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:45,400
Speaker 3: these two teams play months. The only two teams I think,

409
00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:47,280
Speaker 3: the only team they've played in like two months is Rice.

410
00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:50,040
Speaker 3: They've each played Rice. You may be barely beat Rice

411
00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:53,840
Speaker 3: and Marshall lost twenty to nothing. Is three touchdown underdog,

412
00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:55,480
Speaker 3: So I don't know if that was ross or what.

413
00:19:57,200 --> 00:20:00,520
Speaker 3: The defensive numbers look elite for both teams, But then

414
00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:03,200
Speaker 3: I look at Marshall. They played they did shut down

415
00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:08,399
Speaker 3: app State, but they played Eastern Kentucky, Western Kentucky, LA Tech,

416
00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:16,119
Speaker 3: fau UMass, Middle Tennessee. I mean just atrocious offenses. U

417
00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:22,440
Speaker 3: AB has played Central Arkansas Miami early in the year.

418
00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:24,080
Speaker 3: I mean, they gave up a lot of points, to each.

419
00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:27,840
Speaker 3: They over thirty each. But then they played South Alabama, UTSA,

420
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:34,399
Speaker 3: Western Kentucky, LA Tech, and then Rice and they played

421
00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:37,200
Speaker 3: they played, they played UL. We're going to get the

422
00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:39,320
Speaker 3: l Tech for the first ball preview on Sunday night.

423
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:43,480
Speaker 3: They played UL and did a good job on that offense.

424
00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:45,760
Speaker 3: So that that's one data point. But I mean, they

425
00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:49,359
Speaker 3: both of these teams have played so many bad teams.

426
00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:51,760
Speaker 3: I don't have a great feel on this one. My

427
00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:54,280
Speaker 3: initial field, my initial look was going to be under.

428
00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:56,920
Speaker 3: I think this one could be ugly, but I mean

429
00:20:56,920 --> 00:21:01,119
Speaker 3: the total came out really sharp, and it's forty. I

430
00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:03,119
Speaker 3: think this opened at forty one. I get opened at

431
00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:04,960
Speaker 3: forty one and a half. It's come up to forty three.

432
00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:07,600
Speaker 3: I thought we were maybe gonna get like a soft opener, right,

433
00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:12,080
Speaker 3: So do you catch us up here and still a winner?

434
00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:15,320
Speaker 2: You would expect an under here with the considering the

435
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:17,640
Speaker 2: amount of time since the teams have played. Their only

436
00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:21,120
Speaker 2: data point is Rice UAB had a forty two day

437
00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:24,720
Speaker 2: layoff between LA Tech on Halloween to the Rice win.

438
00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:27,960
Speaker 2: And you know, maybe the rust is there in the

439
00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:30,800
Speaker 2: first quarter, maybe maybe worth a first half under. But

440
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:33,600
Speaker 2: I mean I've been burnt by this UAB team before

441
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:37,000
Speaker 2: when Licerno came in as a backup quarterback and decided

442
00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:39,359
Speaker 2: to throw for like four hundred yards and four touchdowns

443
00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:41,639
Speaker 2: as a backup that we never even heard of. So

444
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:44,000
Speaker 2: it's tough to throw a slander around in this game

445
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:46,200
Speaker 2: because I love both Bill Clark and Doc Holliday. These

446
00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:48,080
Speaker 2: are two coaches that I respect I mentally. We'll have

447
00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:50,040
Speaker 2: their teams ready. We know that Bill Clark won us

448
00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:53,600
Speaker 2: a whole big bet winning this conference two years ago,

449
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:56,720
Speaker 2: and he was in you know, doing his presser earlier

450
00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:59,160
Speaker 2: this week, and he says it all injuries that he had,

451
00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:02,639
Speaker 2: which included running back Spencer Brown, the workforce of the

452
00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:05,879
Speaker 2: running back stable for UAB, all players that are injured

453
00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:08,199
Speaker 2: and had COVID nineteen are all returning. They are one

454
00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:11,480
Speaker 2: hundred percent healthy, ready to go. That's a big deal

455
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:13,600
Speaker 2: for UAB. They had a forty two day layoff, like

456
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:17,160
Speaker 2: I said, between LA Tech and Rice, and Clark mentioned

457
00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:20,359
Speaker 2: that this team is heavily motivated after what happened in

458
00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:22,280
Speaker 2: the Louisiana and a LA Tech game. So if you

459
00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:25,560
Speaker 2: dig deep into those box scores, UAB had a sixty

460
00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:28,960
Speaker 2: three percent postgame win expectancy against Louisiana. They should have

461
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:33,280
Speaker 2: beat ull billion Apier, and they had a higher postgame

462
00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:36,400
Speaker 2: win expectancy against La Tech. And so they lost two

463
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:39,080
Speaker 2: games that they shouldn't have. They still win the division.

464
00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:41,080
Speaker 2: They're able to play in this game, but they are

465
00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:43,199
Speaker 2: heavily motivated by the fact that they feel that they

466
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:45,280
Speaker 2: have two losses that were taken away from them. Now,

467
00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:47,640
Speaker 2: Tyler Johnson, the third is expected to start. He could

468
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,840
Speaker 2: split time with Locerno. Rice. You know, was the first team,

469
00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,840
Speaker 2: believe it or not, Rice was the first team to

470
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:57,240
Speaker 2: score twenty against Marshall this season. That's crazy. Now, we

471
00:22:57,280 --> 00:23:01,200
Speaker 2: talked about how bad Buffalo strength of schedule is. Marshalls

472
00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:03,600
Speaker 2: is one hundred and thirtieth, so you hear, you know,

473
00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:06,320
Speaker 2: stuck rattle off those teams is pretty bad. And against Rice,

474
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:08,960
Speaker 2: I went back and watched the tape of all of

475
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:11,919
Speaker 2: Grant Wells interceptions, all five of them. I mean, it

476
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:14,920
Speaker 2: was ugly the Wells iron t's. The first one was

477
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:18,000
Speaker 2: a deep throw into triple coverage no receiver. He missed

478
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:20,720
Speaker 2: a wide receiver by five feet on one. Interception. Number

479
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:24,440
Speaker 2: three was directly at a Rice defensive back as a

480
00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:27,080
Speaker 2: wide receiver just like took off on a forty yard

481
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:30,439
Speaker 2: post and even turn around his fifth iron t he

482
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 2: threw one hundred mile an hour fastball right off like

483
00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 2: at a receiver like maybe nine yards away, and bounced

484
00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:38,560
Speaker 2: right off the shoulder pads. I would say the break

485
00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:41,840
Speaker 2: and that was mentioned, you know in the postgame presser,

486
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:44,600
Speaker 2: is that the break really hurt Wells. He is a

487
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 2: freshman and now here we are with another two weeks,

488
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:50,440
Speaker 2: Rice going into play a havoc minded love to pick

489
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 2: you off, get into the backfield UAB defense. You know,

490
00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:58,200
Speaker 2: Rice had five quarterback hurries in three sacks. Before that game,

491
00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 2: Rice was outside the top one one hundred and adjusted sacrate.

492
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:04,399
Speaker 2: So I go back to Marshall's strength of schedule at

493
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:07,040
Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty. They allowed a team outside the

494
00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:10,639
Speaker 2: top one hundred adjusted sacrate Rice to have five hurries

495
00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:14,720
Speaker 2: in three sacks and like Rattle a freshman Wells and

496
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:18,439
Speaker 2: throwing five interceptions. I'm banking on Bill Clark here. I

497
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:21,160
Speaker 2: think it's the more experienced team. You know, they had

498
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:25,160
Speaker 2: no problems beating Rice off of a forty two day layoff.

499
00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:27,640
Speaker 2: Better coach team, in my opinion, I had to say

500
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:30,960
Speaker 2: that against that holiday, they'll be ready for this championship game.

501
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 2: I bought UAB at five. Wouldn't be surprised to see

502
00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:36,520
Speaker 2: this number drop a little bit before kick?

503
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:39,679
Speaker 3: What if the QB health of VAV right now? Unexpected snap?

504
00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:42,359
Speaker 2: Tyler Johnson is supposed to play like he's been cleared,

505
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:44,119
Speaker 2: and he said that he's going to start and he's fine.

506
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 2: But there was a note in there that Licerno is

507
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:49,680
Speaker 2: going to share some snaps. But Tyler Johnson the third

508
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:50,440
Speaker 2: was completely clear.

509
00:24:50,920 --> 00:25:04,800
Speaker 5: All right, that'll.

510
00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:05,480
Speaker 3: Wrap up Friday night Lights. As far as the games

511
00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 3: that matter, should be some fun ones. Let's move on

512
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:10,600
Speaker 3: to Saturday. Saturday should be an amazing day. By the way,

513
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:15,000
Speaker 3: we have Championship Saturday. We have NFL games. We have

514
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:16,480
Speaker 3: like Iowa Gonzaga.

515
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:18,399
Speaker 2: You go to Luca Garza. Are you going, Drew Timmy,

516
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:18,960
Speaker 2: I don't know.

517
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 3: I mean, it's a really tough spot for Gonzaga because

518
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:25,800
Speaker 3: they just practice with the first time in like seventeen days. Yeah,

519
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:28,080
Speaker 3: and then they just foun out there playing Iowa. It's

520
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 3: a game I'm gonna have to dig on. This game

521
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 3: might be in the nineties.

522
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:34,639
Speaker 2: I would put McCaffrey at a minus four fifty favorite

523
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:36,359
Speaker 2: and a fistfight with Mark Few.

524
00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 3: I bet minus a thousand ers a if McCaffrey gets

525
00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:43,360
Speaker 3: a technical and so, yeah, that's that's unfortunate, but it's

526
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 3: the reality of the situation. I'll be able to handle this.

527
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:49,159
Speaker 2: I've had a lot of dms on college basketball, so

528
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 2: if we want to update the people like we do,

529
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:53,200
Speaker 2: expect to start talking about it in mid January.

530
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:55,399
Speaker 3: Right first or second week of January, we'll have our

531
00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:58,040
Speaker 3: first episode and we have a bunch of bowl episodes coming.

532
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:00,199
Speaker 3: We'll keep you updated on the exact timing. But just

533
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:04,120
Speaker 3: like college football, you'll have these episodes out every Friday

534
00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:06,080
Speaker 3: morning for the weekend, just like we did last year.

535
00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:09,919
Speaker 3: But Saturday will kick the day off at noon with

536
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:13,520
Speaker 3: college football with the Big Twelve Championship at bet MGM,

537
00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 3: the official outspride of the Action of our podcast. Oklahoma

538
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 3: is a five and a half point favorite over under

539
00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:22,159
Speaker 3: fifty seven and a half. We were on Iowa State

540
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:25,200
Speaker 3: in the first meeting. They were catching with the seven

541
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:30,639
Speaker 3: at home, and now they're catching two points as a badline.

542
00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 3: This is in Arlington, they're catching five and a half.

543
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:34,720
Speaker 3: We were on the money line. I was State there too,

544
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 3: Iowa State Nations leading rushier Breize Hall. You know then

545
00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 3: obviously Brock October, which hopefully this is Brock Somber. I

546
00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:44,639
Speaker 3: like iwa was stay here. I make this game closer

547
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:46,880
Speaker 3: to a field goal. I know there are some things

548
00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:51,919
Speaker 3: to like about Oklahoma since that matchup, right, their defense

549
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:53,720
Speaker 3: is playing really well. They have three of the best

550
00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:55,680
Speaker 3: you know per PFF. They have three of the best

551
00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:58,640
Speaker 3: edge rushers in college football, all in the top ten

552
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:00,359
Speaker 3: out of one hundred and ninety seven edge ushers that

553
00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:03,200
Speaker 3: have a minimum one hundred snaps. Rodnie Perkins, who didn't

554
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:05,040
Speaker 3: play in that first matchup, and he makes that defense

555
00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 3: a lot better. Nick Bennino, and Isaiah Thomas, all three

556
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:10,800
Speaker 3: are in the top ten of edge rushers. DJ Graham

557
00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 3: a freshman corner. He's played real well. He also didn't

558
00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:15,840
Speaker 3: play in that first match You know. They also have

559
00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 3: Stevenson back at running back who didn't play in that

560
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:20,000
Speaker 3: first matchup. They were missing a lot of the running backs.

561
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:22,359
Speaker 3: Some transferred so mocked it out, but Stevens in his

562
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 3: back is right it well. I think his numbers are

563
00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:28,679
Speaker 3: been inflated because they've played Kansas. If you look against Baylor,

564
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:31,719
Speaker 3: that offense really didn't do much at all through the

565
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:36,520
Speaker 3: air or on the ground. Iowa State, look, their offensive

566
00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:41,440
Speaker 3: line has really come along since that opening loss against Louisiana.

567
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:44,160
Speaker 3: They had some injuries that game as well up front,

568
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 3: but Colin Owle's been the anchor at center, left guard Schweiger.

569
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 3: He's been awesome filling in for Trevor Downing, who was

570
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:51,840
Speaker 3: like supposed to be one of their best offensive linemen

571
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:54,439
Speaker 3: down and could be back by the way. Sean Foster

572
00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 3: has been great their left tackles the season has gone on,

573
00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 3: and then they have two freshmen on the right side,

574
00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:01,240
Speaker 3: and Simmons and Remsburg would just continue to improve. That

575
00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:05,280
Speaker 3: offensive line is playing really well. They as a result

576
00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:08,800
Speaker 3: they tenth and sacrate thirteenth and passing down sacrate. And

577
00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:12,600
Speaker 3: the Oklahoma offensive line has been bad, lost a lot

578
00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 3: of talent and it just hasn't been great. I think

579
00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:18,440
Speaker 3: that's part of the reason why this offense just it's

580
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:20,879
Speaker 3: a really good offense still, don't get me wrong, but

581
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:25,000
Speaker 3: it's not an offense that we're used to sing with

582
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:27,080
Speaker 3: Lincoln Riley. It's not elite. It's not a top two

583
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:30,200
Speaker 3: or three offense that is just going to go out

584
00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:33,119
Speaker 3: there and shred, and you're gonna have to put up

585
00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:34,960
Speaker 3: forty or fifty to keep face. It's more of a

586
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:37,760
Speaker 3: It's probably the best defense we've seen in a long time.

587
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 3: At Oklahoma defense's top ten EPA. So there are some

588
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:48,239
Speaker 3: things they like about Oklahoma here, But Iowa State. I

589
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 3: just think that, yeah, and I think that you're going

590
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:54,000
Speaker 3: to get to this by the way, and I will say, look,

591
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:56,040
Speaker 3: I gotta be fair. Rather saw this defense. It was

592
00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:57,920
Speaker 3: his first road game, and he's now he's seen this.

593
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:02,480
Speaker 3: Silwa State defensive have more familiarity with it, but Iowa

594
00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:05,680
Speaker 3: State is similarly. These are two top twenty five offenses

595
00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 3: from yards per play and to top ten rush defenses.

596
00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:15,040
Speaker 3: They're both allowing three point one yards per rush or fewer.

597
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 3: What I think the difference will be is the secondaries.

598
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:24,760
Speaker 3: And I trust Iowa State secondary more than Oklahoma's and

599
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 3: I trust Purty not to make the key mistakes. Rattler

600
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:31,040
Speaker 3: has cleaned them up for sure. That was the difference

601
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:33,000
Speaker 3: of the first game. I think you're probably maybe I'll

602
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:37,280
Speaker 3: talk to havoc numbers, but if you and have it allowed,

603
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 3: and that speaks to the youth, the inexperience of Rattler.

604
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:45,480
Speaker 3: I know Oklahoma has been improving. Their defense is really

605
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 3: good by all metrics, but their offenses and as good,

606
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 3: and we have to just chill out a little bit.

607
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:55,160
Speaker 3: They played Baylor, they won twenty seven to fourteen. Baylor

608
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:58,440
Speaker 3: was terrible. This year they played Oak State. Oak State's

609
00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:01,520
Speaker 3: offense is a disaster this year year. The game before

610
00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:03,560
Speaker 3: that they played Kansas The game before that they played

611
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 3: Texas Tech. These are all disastrous offensive lines and bad

612
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:10,320
Speaker 3: offenses this year, and then before that they played TCU,

613
00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 3: and then you know, they play Texas, they go forty five.

614
00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:14,920
Speaker 3: They played Iowa State, they go up thirty seven. They

615
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:17,440
Speaker 3: play Kansas State, gave up thirty eight. So this is

616
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:20,360
Speaker 3: kind of like Alabama where we're saying that defense is

617
00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:24,120
Speaker 3: now all fixed and it's great and it's all roses,

618
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 3: and but I don't, I don't. I don't necessarily think

619
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:29,240
Speaker 3: it's all solved on the back end. Alex Gritch is

620
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:31,400
Speaker 3: doing a wonderful job of this defensive defense a couple

621
00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:33,880
Speaker 3: of years ago is the worst worst Power five defense

622
00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:35,720
Speaker 3: in the country. They're gonna get a lot of pressu,

623
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:37,960
Speaker 3: They're gonna aggressive, they're gonna got up exposive plays. I

624
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:40,600
Speaker 3: think Party can take advantage, pere hease Hall can take advantage.

625
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 3: Just like in the first matchup, Rattler makes a mistake

626
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 3: or two. I think this game goes either way, but

627
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 3: I'll take I'll take the six. If it gets up

628
00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 3: to seven, and there's Oklahoma money in the market because

629
00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:55,760
Speaker 3: of some of these improvements in Oklahoma, I'll take more

630
00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 3: at seven. Thoughts.

631
00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:59,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what I've been waiting for all week is seven.

632
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:02,720
Speaker 2: And I'm going to echo sentiments that you have about

633
00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 2: the narrative that's been built around Oklahoma. I mean, maybe

634
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 2: I'll be wrong on this, but there is some sort

635
00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:11,840
Speaker 2: of thing going around that I've heard this week where

636
00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:15,920
Speaker 2: it's Oklahoma has greatly improved and Spencer Ratler has become

637
00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:19,240
Speaker 2: much more comfortable in the pockets since the last time

638
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:23,040
Speaker 2: these two teams met. Oklahoma's defense is grinch here too.

639
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:25,920
Speaker 2: It's playing so much better than it has the last

640
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 2: time these two teams met. Hold on, that's horseship, all right,

641
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:31,800
Speaker 2: Quit populating my ear drums with horseship.

642
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:35,960
Speaker 3: This is full shit.

643
00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:40,000
Speaker 2: When Oklahoma played Iowa State, if you look at the

644
00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:43,360
Speaker 2: advanced stats, things have not changed Spencer Rattler posted a

645
00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 2: fifty eight percent success rate. He threw for three hundred yards,

646
00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:48,440
Speaker 2: he was hurried three times and had two sacks. Let's

647
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 2: look at the game since then Baylor four sacks, one hurry,

648
00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:55,680
Speaker 2: one hurry, Rattler fifty seven percent success rate against Oklahoma

649
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:58,880
Speaker 2: State fifty eight percent success rate, one hurry, three sacks

650
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 2: TCU for three hundred and thirty two yards on thirteen completions,

651
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 2: but a fifty five percent success rate. The same success

652
00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 2: rate in the number of yards and the times he

653
00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:11,320
Speaker 2: was pressured was the same in Iowa State as it

654
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 2: has been in the wins since. That is not why

655
00:32:14,760 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 2: they lost the game. The reason they lost the game

656
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:21,040
Speaker 2: is because of how terrible they were against explosive plays

657
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:23,840
Speaker 2: in the second half, and they gave up a kick

658
00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:27,640
Speaker 2: return for sixty three yards. It landed like the OU thirteen,

659
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 2: and so that's really the difference. Oklahoma's explosive play defense

660
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:36,080
Speaker 2: must step up second half against Iowa State. Iowa State

661
00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:39,560
Speaker 2: had drives of three plays seventy five yards, four plays

662
00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:43,040
Speaker 2: fifty five yards, a sixty three yard kick return for

663
00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 2: field position at the thirteen, and an eventual ISU touchdown.

664
00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 2: That's what happened in the second half of the game,

665
00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:52,520
Speaker 2: and that was the difference. Now is that going to

666
00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:55,640
Speaker 2: change as Oklahoma Holme has shown me enough against the

667
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:58,480
Speaker 2: Oklahoma States and the Baylor offenses of the world to

668
00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:00,280
Speaker 2: make me think that this isn't going to happen in

669
00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:05,360
Speaker 2: the second half. Brice Hall, you know, the quietest Heisman

670
00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 2: campaign run I've ever seen in the history of Heisman

671
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 2: runs will be why.

672
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:11,600
Speaker 3: She's leading Russia. No one even knows.

673
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:14,880
Speaker 2: It's insane. I mean, he's the reason that Iowa State

674
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:17,560
Speaker 2: is going to cover and probably win. Iowa State is

675
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:20,959
Speaker 2: top twenty in standard down success rate, and that's evident

676
00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:23,320
Speaker 2: by success rate numbers in Russian pass It doesn't matter

677
00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:26,320
Speaker 2: how you split it, rock Pertty or Brese Hall, they

678
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:30,600
Speaker 2: are really violent on offense and early downs they are

679
00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 2: getting it done. Oklahoma's been decent and standard downs. They're

680
00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:37,200
Speaker 2: thirty eighth in defensive success rate, but the explosiveness is

681
00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:40,560
Speaker 2: where the problem is. In first and second down. Oklahoma

682
00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:43,160
Speaker 2: cannot handle an offense that is trying to shoot deep,

683
00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:46,080
Speaker 2: that is shooting threes against them. To use an NBA term,

684
00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:49,600
Speaker 2: welcome back. NBA Oklahoma is one hundred and twenty fourth

685
00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:55,200
Speaker 2: on defense during standard downs against explosiveness. Breese Hall and

686
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 2: bron Pretty are going to find ways again to expose that.

687
00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:01,480
Speaker 2: Matt Campbell's an amazing coach. Both these teams are top

688
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 2: ten and offensive finishing drive. So I do think there's

689
00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:06,520
Speaker 2: going to be some points. Sixty seven points last time

690
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:08,680
Speaker 2: these teams played. You know what, are we sitting at

691
00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:10,600
Speaker 2: fifty eight right now in the market. I know that

692
00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:13,799
Speaker 2: that game last time had some field positions, some really

693
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:17,600
Speaker 2: good appealing field positions for those easy scores, probably why

694
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:20,400
Speaker 2: the game sailed over to sixty seven. But I prefer

695
00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:22,680
Speaker 2: the over and here. But I'm with you. I want

696
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:24,799
Speaker 2: Iowa State. If it's at six and a half, I'll

697
00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:26,719
Speaker 2: buy the hook to get to seven, just to ensure it.

698
00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:29,319
Speaker 2: I think they're worth a money line play. I don't

699
00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:30,880
Speaker 2: want to play five and a half. There's no reason

700
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:32,160
Speaker 2: to play five and a half. We're going to go

701
00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 2: one way or the other. I doubt the game lands

702
00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:36,560
Speaker 2: on five. I've seen crazier things this year. I love

703
00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:38,840
Speaker 2: Iowa State here, and Oklahoma's just not going to be

704
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 2: able to stop standard downs explosiveness. Nothing has changed with

705
00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:45,600
Speaker 2: that over the last four games, and this narrative about

706
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:47,239
Speaker 2: how they've gotten better on both sides of the ball.

707
00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:48,600
Speaker 2: That stuff needs to stop.

708
00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:51,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, they've also just not played anywhere near the talent

709
00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:54,520
Speaker 3: caliber of Iowa State and Texas and all those teams

710
00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:56,640
Speaker 3: that were playing earlier in the year, where some of

711
00:34:56,640 --> 00:34:59,480
Speaker 3: the things look shaky. All right, sort of agreement there.

712
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:11,040
Speaker 6: Unbelievable college football, fix Sports, the Big.

713
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:15,800
Speaker 3: Twelve, let's stay in the noon slot for the Big

714
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:19,319
Speaker 3: Ten championship. And this was another one where I think

715
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:21,440
Speaker 3: we just said we're putting Ohio State and Ohiostate as

716
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:25,319
Speaker 3: five wins. Northwestern is six and one. Ohio State at

717
00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:31,040
Speaker 3: bet MGM is currently a twenty point favorite, Juice minus

718
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:34,239
Speaker 3: one twenty five over under fifty six and a half. So,

719
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:36,040
Speaker 3: I mean, just this game is really hard for me

720
00:35:36,080 --> 00:35:39,200
Speaker 3: to cap. We talked about Ohio State. We think that

721
00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:42,760
Speaker 3: they have issues in their secondary with allowing explosive plays.

722
00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:46,200
Speaker 3: They lost all the pros in their secondary, three pros

723
00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:48,520
Speaker 3: in the first three rounds the NFL Draft. We saw

724
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:51,480
Speaker 3: some of that against Indiana. Other than that, I mean,

725
00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:54,600
Speaker 3: they've played Penn State. Penn State moved the ball a

726
00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:58,160
Speaker 3: little bit too. Other games that are against Nebraska Rutgers,

727
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:02,600
Speaker 3: Michigan State. So it's like, Okay, I think this could

728
00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:05,040
Speaker 3: be an issue in the College Wall playoff? Is it

729
00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 3: going to be an issue this weekend? I mean, Northwestern

730
00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:11,120
Speaker 3: is no explosiveness whatsoever. Their offense is terrible. It's close

731
00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:15,480
Speaker 3: to a bottom thirty offense. Kyton Ramsey is the Indiana transfer,

732
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:17,840
Speaker 3: their quarterback. He gives them a little bit of a

733
00:36:17,840 --> 00:36:20,920
Speaker 3: prayer of moving the ball through efficient passes, like I mean,

734
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:23,880
Speaker 3: I'm talking about compared to last year. This is a

735
00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:26,160
Speaker 3: bottom ten offense last year. They can at least he

736
00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:28,400
Speaker 3: can at least complete some passes and forward passes that

737
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:31,239
Speaker 3: they couldn't do last year. But it's still a bad

738
00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:34,759
Speaker 3: offense overall, not really fishing on the ground and no

739
00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:37,279
Speaker 3: one's really running on Ohio State. And on the other

740
00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:42,320
Speaker 3: side of the ball, Northwestern's defense has been really good,

741
00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:44,880
Speaker 3: but this is a big step up in class. The

742
00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:52,280
Speaker 3: Ohio State offense has been really good. Northwestern's played Iowa, Maryland, Nebraska,

743
00:36:52,680 --> 00:36:57,719
Speaker 3: Purdue Wisconstant and Sparti and then recently Illinois, so it's

744
00:36:57,760 --> 00:37:02,279
Speaker 3: like this is a major step up for them. So

745
00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:05,760
Speaker 3: there's two sides of the coin here. I mean, I don't.

746
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:13,040
Speaker 3: I can't envision Northwestern completely stopping Ohio State. How much

747
00:37:13,120 --> 00:37:15,440
Speaker 3: can they contain Ohio State? So how many points can

748
00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:18,080
Speaker 3: they hold them to? Is it thirty? Is it what

749
00:37:18,160 --> 00:37:21,040
Speaker 3: is realistic? Is it thirty five? Is it forty? And

750
00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:25,400
Speaker 3: then what can Northwestern do to potentially take advantage of

751
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:30,239
Speaker 3: some of the vulnerabilities in Ohio State's back end? I'm

752
00:37:30,239 --> 00:37:32,880
Speaker 3: not sure they can. That's sort all beside the total.

753
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:35,759
Speaker 3: How many points Northwestern can score because I think Ohio

754
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:39,399
Speaker 3: State's at least getting to thirty five? How many points

755
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:42,080
Speaker 3: can Northwestern score? That'll be side the total and the

756
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:44,160
Speaker 3: side what do you think here?

757
00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:47,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I did my best. When you handicap these kinds

758
00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:48,919
Speaker 2: of games, when you see these teams that are making

759
00:37:48,920 --> 00:37:52,520
Speaker 2: the college role playoff, and you know, the feeling is

760
00:37:52,520 --> 00:37:54,960
Speaker 2: is can you make a case for the dog? And

761
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:57,120
Speaker 2: if you can't, I mean you can't make a living

762
00:37:57,160 --> 00:37:59,239
Speaker 2: as a gambler just betting underdogs all the time. You

763
00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:02,200
Speaker 2: have to realize that favorites have just as much value.

764
00:38:02,239 --> 00:38:06,200
Speaker 2: I know, playing favorites can be square, but they cover

765
00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:08,799
Speaker 2: two and so I think what I tried to do

766
00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:11,440
Speaker 2: in this game is make a case for Northwestern Mike

767
00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:14,359
Speaker 2: hank Witz, great defensive coordinator for Northwestern. He's been there

768
00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:16,760
Speaker 2: since two thousand and eight. He'll be retiring after this season.

769
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 2: He's gone up against Ryan Day twice since Ryan Day

770
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 2: took over play calling in twenty seventeen two years ago.

771
00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:27,279
Speaker 2: Had to eat my words. We had Darren Ravelle join

772
00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:30,680
Speaker 2: us two years ago. This week, I remember at Action

773
00:38:30,760 --> 00:38:32,960
Speaker 2: Network because he's a Northwestern alum, and I sent him

774
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:35,160
Speaker 2: an email and I said, take Northwestern and the points

775
00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:38,319
Speaker 2: at seventeen against Ohio State in the Big Big Ten Championship.

776
00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:42,680
Speaker 2: And you know, Ohio State in the fourth quarter figured

777
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:45,360
Speaker 2: something out, scored an extra touchdown and covered the game

778
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:48,319
Speaker 2: in exact same scenario just like this, where like you know,

779
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:50,920
Speaker 2: Ohio State's getting ninety percent of the money, ninety percent

780
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:53,600
Speaker 2: of the tickets, they still covered. And so when you

781
00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:56,000
Speaker 2: look at Ryan Day versus Mike Hankwitz over the last

782
00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:59,880
Speaker 2: two times, Ryan Day has figured hank wits out and

783
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:02,480
Speaker 2: defense and has been able to. And I know the

784
00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:04,480
Speaker 2: offenses are different, I know that there's a lot of

785
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 2: star power missing, but justin field is still there. And

786
00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:09,680
Speaker 2: I think that Ryan Day just has the advantage here.

787
00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:11,560
Speaker 2: I think he's going to know how to call the game.

788
00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:14,319
Speaker 2: And nothing has changed in Northwestern's tendencies. I mean I

789
00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:16,480
Speaker 2: went deep. They're still in a four to three just

790
00:39:16,520 --> 00:39:18,479
Speaker 2: like they have been the last couple of years. They're

791
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:21,520
Speaker 2: still sending blitzes at a high at the highest rate.

792
00:39:21,600 --> 00:39:23,719
Speaker 2: It's when it's second and six or less that's when

793
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:25,319
Speaker 2: they send a blitz, like fifty percent of the time

794
00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:29,000
Speaker 2: they're sending a blitz. So it's actually a very predictable defense.

795
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:31,040
Speaker 2: They've just been playing out of their mind with a

796
00:39:31,080 --> 00:39:33,440
Speaker 2: lot of experiences here for Northwestern. But what I wanted

797
00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:37,360
Speaker 2: to do was go and see when Northwestern actually faced

798
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:41,440
Speaker 2: a good offense. What happened. So two offenses that are

799
00:39:41,520 --> 00:39:43,640
Speaker 2: ranked in the top fifty and sp plus are Purdue

800
00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:45,919
Speaker 2: in Nebraska. Now two different teams. Perdue likes to pass,

801
00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:50,400
Speaker 2: Nebraska likes to run. Perdue terrible in standard downs against Northwestern,

802
00:39:50,480 --> 00:39:53,120
Speaker 2: they were excellent in passing downs. They had seven passes

803
00:39:53,120 --> 00:39:56,600
Speaker 2: of fifteen plus yards. Half of the rushing attempts were stuffed.

804
00:39:56,960 --> 00:40:00,960
Speaker 2: Northwestern had zero quarterback hurries and three against Purdue, but

805
00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:04,080
Speaker 2: Perdue was able to generate seven passes of fifteen plus yards.

806
00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:07,360
Speaker 2: That's Purdue's offense. Right, So then you look at Nebraska

807
00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:09,920
Speaker 2: a running team. They were sixty two percent success rate

808
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:12,279
Speaker 2: in standard downs when you run at five point five

809
00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:15,320
Speaker 2: yards per play. On rush attempts, they had seven runs

810
00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:18,600
Speaker 2: over twelve plus yards. The problem with Nebraska why they

811
00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:20,800
Speaker 2: didn't make that a game is they averaged one point

812
00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:24,120
Speaker 2: five points per trip past the forty. Nebraska moved the

813
00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:26,560
Speaker 2: ball just fine against this Northwestern d. They just couldn't

814
00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:28,840
Speaker 2: get any points on the board. So my point to

815
00:40:28,920 --> 00:40:31,680
Speaker 2: that whole little story is is when Northwestern's defense has

816
00:40:31,760 --> 00:40:34,840
Speaker 2: faced the top fifty offense and when you focus in

817
00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:37,280
Speaker 2: on what those offenses do, whether it's pass or run,

818
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:40,640
Speaker 2: both those offenses had success. So I don't I mean,

819
00:40:40,680 --> 00:40:43,279
Speaker 2: I kind of woke up this week and thought, man,

820
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:45,759
Speaker 2: Northwestern's defense, if they play their top game, they can

821
00:40:45,760 --> 00:40:48,680
Speaker 2: shut Ohio State down and actually have a chance. I

822
00:40:48,680 --> 00:40:51,279
Speaker 2: think that's wrong because I've seen Purdue's pass and I've

823
00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:54,160
Speaker 2: seen Nebraska's run have their way with Northwestern. It's just

824
00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:55,839
Speaker 2: that they failed at the goal line. I don't think

825
00:40:55,840 --> 00:40:58,440
Speaker 2: Ohio State is going to fail at the goal line.

826
00:40:58,480 --> 00:41:00,520
Speaker 2: So when you you know, take all that in, you

827
00:41:00,560 --> 00:41:02,880
Speaker 2: turn around, you look at the handicap on Peyton Ramsey

828
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:06,720
Speaker 2: against the Ohio State Secondary. Peyton Ramsey seven of twelve

829
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:09,640
Speaker 2: againts Illinois last week twenty one to forty three against

830
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:13,640
Speaker 2: Michigan State with two I iNTS thirty nine percent success rate.

831
00:41:13,680 --> 00:41:16,239
Speaker 2: Against Wisconsin, he averaged two and a half yards per

832
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:19,840
Speaker 2: play on passing downs. Is that even possible? Two and

833
00:41:19,840 --> 00:41:22,359
Speaker 2: a half yards per play on a passing down? So

834
00:41:23,080 --> 00:41:25,080
Speaker 2: I have no money on this game. I make it

835
00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:27,520
Speaker 2: nineteen and a half. I make the total fifty eight.

836
00:41:28,280 --> 00:41:31,040
Speaker 2: What I really want to bet is I want to

837
00:41:31,120 --> 00:41:36,399
Speaker 2: fluke Northwestern special teams or defensive touchdown early and if

838
00:41:36,400 --> 00:41:38,120
Speaker 2: that's it, and I can get all and the odds

839
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:41,000
Speaker 2: makers are going to be slow to move this number.

840
00:41:41,080 --> 00:41:42,919
Speaker 2: They're going to be slow to drop this thing below

841
00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:45,760
Speaker 2: fourteen unless Northwestern is really looking like they're in trouble.

842
00:41:45,760 --> 00:41:48,080
Speaker 2: But we've seen crazier things. I'm going to look for

843
00:41:48,160 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 2: some Ohio State live. I think they're gonna be able

844
00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:53,880
Speaker 2: to have their way here. If they come out blazing

845
00:41:54,120 --> 00:41:56,240
Speaker 2: and they're up thirty five zero at the beginning, fine

846
00:41:56,400 --> 00:41:58,640
Speaker 2: missed opportunity. We move on to the next game. But

847
00:41:59,080 --> 00:42:01,040
Speaker 2: I'm not here to bet every single game on the

848
00:42:01,080 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 2: Saturday card. I'm here to find edges and value and

849
00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:07,440
Speaker 2: maximize my investment, and right now there's just none of

850
00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:09,719
Speaker 2: that on the side or the total. I will say this,

851
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:12,000
Speaker 2: there is a promp out there if you can find it.

852
00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:14,919
Speaker 2: Ohio State winning by thirteen to eighteen points is plus

853
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:17,759
Speaker 2: four twenty five. Ohio State winning nineteen to twenty four

854
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:20,919
Speaker 2: points is plus four fifty. I mean instead of getting

855
00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:23,120
Speaker 2: guak on your Chipoli bowl, I mean that that could

856
00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:24,719
Speaker 2: be fun. That could be fun if you want a

857
00:42:24,760 --> 00:42:29,280
Speaker 2: little side exotic action for me, No play endgame Ohio State.

858
00:42:29,360 --> 00:42:32,120
Speaker 2: If some fluky field position shit happens.

859
00:42:32,239 --> 00:42:35,279
Speaker 3: It is Northwestern voodoo and Fitzgerald usually does have his

860
00:42:35,360 --> 00:42:39,160
Speaker 3: team over perform expectations. But they're definitely not a big

861
00:42:39,160 --> 00:42:41,000
Speaker 3: disadvantage here from a talent perspective.

862
00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:45,200
Speaker 7: The NFL season is upon us, and our friends at

863
00:42:45,239 --> 00:42:48,880
Speaker 7: bet MGM Sports are offering Action Network podcast listeners a

864
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:52,000
Speaker 7: great sign up offer. Just make your first deposit using

865
00:42:52,040 --> 00:42:55,680
Speaker 7: the bonus code Action Pod and receive one hundred percent

866
00:42:55,719 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 7: deposit match up to five hundred dollars. They've got parlay bonus.

867
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:03,360
Speaker 7: It's live betting markets, daily odds boosts, all sorts, of

868
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:06,879
Speaker 7: great stuff. So download the betmgm app today or visit

869
00:43:06,920 --> 00:43:10,040
Speaker 7: betmgm dot com to sign up and use the code

870
00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:13,320
Speaker 7: Action pod to double your bank role with one hundred

871
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:16,840
Speaker 7: percent deposit match up to five hundred dollars. As a reminder,

872
00:43:16,920 --> 00:43:19,200
Speaker 7: you must be twenty one or older and physically located

873
00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:22,280
Speaker 7: in the Great States of Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, Nevada,

874
00:43:22,360 --> 00:43:25,920
Speaker 7: or West Virginia. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem called one

875
00:43:25,920 --> 00:43:28,200
Speaker 7: eight hundred five two two forty seven hundred in Colorado

876
00:43:28,239 --> 00:43:30,360
Speaker 7: and Nevada, one eight hundred gambler in New Jersey and

877
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:32,560
Speaker 7: West Virginia or one eight hundred and nine with it

878
00:43:32,640 --> 00:43:35,920
Speaker 7: in Indiana. Promo offer not available in Nevada. And now

879
00:43:36,120 --> 00:43:36,880
Speaker 7: back to the show.

880
00:43:39,040 --> 00:43:41,640
Speaker 3: All right, let's let's talk about again. That's a little

881
00:43:41,640 --> 00:43:46,200
Speaker 3: more intriguing that has definitive college football playoff applications for

882
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:49,160
Speaker 3: both teams. So I don't think Northwestern is getting into

883
00:43:49,160 --> 00:43:52,919
Speaker 3: college Off even with a win. Sorry Darryl, but we're

884
00:43:53,280 --> 00:43:56,719
Speaker 3: tuck ACC Championship at bet MGM. Clemson's a ten and

885
00:43:56,760 --> 00:43:59,680
Speaker 3: a half point favored over under sixty and a half.

886
00:44:00,200 --> 00:44:05,399
Speaker 3: Clemson wins, we assume they're in notre Dame wins, they're

887
00:44:05,440 --> 00:44:08,640
Speaker 3: in Notre Dame loses. They still could be able to

888
00:44:08,680 --> 00:44:11,640
Speaker 3: talk about that later in the show. But these two

889
00:44:11,640 --> 00:44:15,800
Speaker 3: teams met earlier in the year and it was a thriller.

890
00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:19,960
Speaker 3: Notre Dame was a five point home underdog, won forty

891
00:44:20,120 --> 00:44:25,319
Speaker 3: seven forty in overtime, I should say double overtime. Now

892
00:44:25,520 --> 00:44:28,040
Speaker 3: Clemson's now laying ten and a half in Charlotte. You know,

893
00:44:28,120 --> 00:44:30,239
Speaker 3: if you go back to that early game, obviously Trevor

894
00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:32,680
Speaker 3: Lawrence didn't play. If you look at like from an

895
00:44:32,680 --> 00:44:35,960
Speaker 3: EPA per play perspective, Clemson was the better side, and

896
00:44:36,000 --> 00:44:40,680
Speaker 3: Book played incredible, especially late, especially on third downs. I mean,

897
00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:42,319
Speaker 3: he played so well. But if some of the one

898
00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:46,279
Speaker 3: of the things that I really did notice was Clemson's

899
00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:50,239
Speaker 3: passing offense. Really, I mean, look look at the first

900
00:44:50,239 --> 00:44:53,840
Speaker 3: half point six to one EPA per play run negative

901
00:44:53,880 --> 00:44:57,040
Speaker 3: point eight two. If you look at where when DJ

902
00:44:57,239 --> 00:45:00,120
Speaker 3: was throwing the ball down the field, I mean, it

903
00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:03,359
Speaker 3: was incredible how much success that they were having. And

904
00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:06,960
Speaker 3: Notre Dame just said, we're gonna stop Travis etn and

905
00:45:07,000 --> 00:45:09,200
Speaker 3: they did, and they took them completely the game, and

906
00:45:09,200 --> 00:45:11,400
Speaker 3: Clemson I think was a little bit too stubborn, So

907
00:45:12,040 --> 00:45:14,440
Speaker 3: I think that this total is a little bit too high.

908
00:45:14,800 --> 00:45:18,719
Speaker 3: But I think it will come down to how Clemson

909
00:45:18,760 --> 00:45:21,040
Speaker 3: attacks Notre Dame here, and if Notre Dame says we're

910
00:45:21,040 --> 00:45:23,640
Speaker 3: going to just stop Travis Etn again, because I think

911
00:45:23,640 --> 00:45:26,520
Speaker 3: that Clemson, if that's the case, isn't going to bother

912
00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:28,400
Speaker 3: running the ball here and they're going to be attacking

913
00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:32,600
Speaker 3: down field, which I thought was a huge red flag

914
00:45:32,600 --> 00:45:34,440
Speaker 3: air for Notre Dame, and it still might be. But

915
00:45:34,480 --> 00:45:36,160
Speaker 3: if you're a Notre Dame fan, you can at least

916
00:45:36,160 --> 00:45:39,560
Speaker 3: point to that recovery in the North Carolina game when

917
00:45:39,600 --> 00:45:41,719
Speaker 3: they gave up fourteen quick points and then shut down

918
00:45:41,760 --> 00:45:45,200
Speaker 3: the North Carolina offense. Obviously Trevor Lawrence, it's on a

919
00:45:45,239 --> 00:45:48,359
Speaker 3: different level here. That North Carolina offense is really good.

920
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:50,759
Speaker 3: So I'm interested to see how this plays out. From

921
00:45:50,760 --> 00:45:53,040
Speaker 3: a scheme perspective. I do show a tad bit of

922
00:45:53,080 --> 00:45:55,919
Speaker 3: value on Notre Dame because I make this under ten,

923
00:45:56,960 --> 00:45:59,640
Speaker 3: but I think that's what's really gonna make or break

924
00:45:59,680 --> 00:46:02,719
Speaker 3: this game. I lean irish here. I don't think I

925
00:46:02,719 --> 00:46:04,200
Speaker 3: want to get involved in the total because I'm not

926
00:46:04,239 --> 00:46:06,759
Speaker 3: sure how Notre Dame is going to play this. What

927
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:07,720
Speaker 3: are your thoughts here.

928
00:46:08,360 --> 00:46:10,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's a game that I make sixty

929
00:46:10,400 --> 00:46:12,880
Speaker 2: five on the total, which is above where the market is.

930
00:46:12,920 --> 00:46:16,600
Speaker 2: But at the same time, every little piece of data

931
00:46:16,640 --> 00:46:18,600
Speaker 2: I uncover, I think that this game is going to

932
00:46:18,640 --> 00:46:20,520
Speaker 2: go under. So I've stayed away from the side. But

933
00:46:21,200 --> 00:46:24,160
Speaker 2: like you, I made this a single digit power rated ballgame,

934
00:46:24,200 --> 00:46:26,400
Speaker 2: which is why I took Notre Dame plus eleven on

935
00:46:26,480 --> 00:46:29,760
Speaker 2: I think Sunday night or Monday morning. And I'm willing

936
00:46:29,800 --> 00:46:32,640
Speaker 2: to come back and fire on Clemson because this is

937
00:46:32,719 --> 00:46:36,160
Speaker 2: just a market that's screaming that Clemson's going to win

938
00:46:36,160 --> 00:46:39,440
Speaker 2: this game by double digits. I mean, even though statistically

939
00:46:39,440 --> 00:46:41,799
Speaker 2: everything that I look at and everything my eyeballs tell

940
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:44,080
Speaker 2: me Notre Dame should cover this game and have a

941
00:46:44,160 --> 00:46:47,600
Speaker 2: chance to win, the market is telling me something completely different,

942
00:46:47,640 --> 00:46:49,200
Speaker 2: is that Clemson is going to win this game by

943
00:46:49,200 --> 00:46:51,800
Speaker 2: double digits. But if we dive into this, and the

944
00:46:51,800 --> 00:46:53,440
Speaker 2: reason why I say it is that Clemson minus four

945
00:46:53,480 --> 00:46:56,120
Speaker 2: and a half loses in South Bend, they play two games,

946
00:46:56,120 --> 00:46:58,480
Speaker 2: and now they're minus ten and a half on a

947
00:46:58,480 --> 00:47:01,080
Speaker 2: neutral field three games later. I mean, that's a hell

948
00:47:01,080 --> 00:47:03,560
Speaker 2: of an adjustment. That's a Florida Alabama tide adjustment that

949
00:47:03,560 --> 00:47:04,439
Speaker 2: we'll talk about later.

950
00:47:04,520 --> 00:47:06,719
Speaker 3: And I think at Trevor Lawrence back too, which does help.

951
00:47:07,080 --> 00:47:09,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, And the thing is is, like you talked about it,

952
00:47:09,239 --> 00:47:12,320
Speaker 2: DJ was fine from a success rate standpoint. He played

953
00:47:12,320 --> 00:47:15,200
Speaker 2: a really good There was no drop off and DJ's

954
00:47:15,280 --> 00:47:18,920
Speaker 2: numbers versus what Trevor has put up before. So you know,

955
00:47:19,040 --> 00:47:21,479
Speaker 2: and I know that from a Vegas perspective, they don't

956
00:47:21,840 --> 00:47:24,600
Speaker 2: really look as deep as we do, but we just

957
00:47:24,719 --> 00:47:27,680
Speaker 2: know that success rate and what DJ did in the

958
00:47:27,719 --> 00:47:29,840
Speaker 2: advanced stats was the same as what Trevor's doing. So

959
00:47:29,880 --> 00:47:32,359
Speaker 2: when you think of Clemson in twenty twenty one, don't

960
00:47:32,360 --> 00:47:34,520
Speaker 2: worry about the drop off at the quarterback position. If

961
00:47:34,520 --> 00:47:35,040
Speaker 2: anybody was.

962
00:47:35,120 --> 00:47:37,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, the the issue in the first game was I mean,

963
00:47:37,960 --> 00:47:41,080
Speaker 3: Book was awesome. Yeah, and he was attacking down field too,

964
00:47:41,239 --> 00:47:44,680
Speaker 3: but it was the Clemson play caller. Hey, I agree enough.

965
00:47:45,120 --> 00:47:46,680
Speaker 2: And then if you flip to the other side of

966
00:47:46,680 --> 00:47:49,000
Speaker 2: the ball, which I think is a big handicap in

967
00:47:49,000 --> 00:47:52,240
Speaker 2: this game. Is is Skowski and Jones Mike Jones Junior

968
00:47:52,360 --> 00:47:55,560
Speaker 2: and James Skowski, two linebackers for Clemson. They did not

969
00:47:55,640 --> 00:47:58,279
Speaker 2: play in that Notre Dame game and those two linebackers

970
00:47:58,320 --> 00:48:03,080
Speaker 2: are the highest graded path coverage defenders on the Tigers defense.

971
00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:07,120
Speaker 2: My Jones Junior is back for this game. Uh Xavier

972
00:48:07,120 --> 00:48:09,000
Speaker 2: Thomas was suspended the first half. I don't think he

973
00:48:09,040 --> 00:48:12,200
Speaker 2: even recorded a tackle in that game. But Skalski has

974
00:48:12,239 --> 00:48:14,880
Speaker 2: been cleared to play, and it says that he's healthy

975
00:48:14,920 --> 00:48:17,399
Speaker 2: and he's going to play. But we're looking at a

976
00:48:18,320 --> 00:48:21,880
Speaker 2: torn growing a sports hernia surgery, and this is the

977
00:48:21,880 --> 00:48:23,600
Speaker 2: first time he'll be on the field since all of

978
00:48:23,640 --> 00:48:27,800
Speaker 2: that happened. Skowski calls the plays on defense, he lines

979
00:48:27,840 --> 00:48:31,520
Speaker 2: everybody up. There's been just you know, with with with

980
00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:34,560
Speaker 2: the Venables, you know Venables Junior here, Tyler or Jake.

981
00:48:34,600 --> 00:48:36,680
Speaker 2: There's so many of them on the field, but the Venables,

982
00:48:36,920 --> 00:48:40,200
Speaker 2: Jake Vinibles, the linebacker that's filled in. You've seen an

983
00:48:40,200 --> 00:48:43,759
Speaker 2: increase in miss tackles, missed assignments, and that's because Skoalski's

984
00:48:43,800 --> 00:48:45,600
Speaker 2: the one that calls the plays and gets everybody lined

985
00:48:45,680 --> 00:48:47,480
Speaker 2: up correctly. So having him on the field, just from

986
00:48:47,520 --> 00:48:51,440
Speaker 2: a captain perspective, is a huge plus for Clemson. But

987
00:48:52,400 --> 00:48:54,560
Speaker 2: how good is he going to be running down, you know,

988
00:48:54,640 --> 00:48:56,960
Speaker 2: crossing rounds. How good is he going to be plugging holes.

989
00:48:57,840 --> 00:48:59,920
Speaker 2: We're gonna have to see that. The thing that I

990
00:49:00,160 --> 00:49:03,399
Speaker 2: come back to with Clemson is it's interesting to look

991
00:49:03,400 --> 00:49:05,439
Speaker 2: at the Virginia Tech game, you know, a game where

992
00:49:05,440 --> 00:49:07,239
Speaker 2: you and I both had the Hokies and we felt

993
00:49:07,239 --> 00:49:10,279
Speaker 2: pretty good about ourselves after the first quarter. Virginia Tech

994
00:49:10,280 --> 00:49:12,359
Speaker 2: game seven yards per play and had a sixty two

995
00:49:12,400 --> 00:49:17,040
Speaker 2: percent offensive success rate before the injuries hit every Hokies quarterback.

996
00:49:17,760 --> 00:49:20,920
Speaker 2: The final score was extremely misleading because Virginia Tech was

997
00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:23,840
Speaker 2: very much in that game until that happened. Clemson's biggest

998
00:49:23,840 --> 00:49:26,799
Speaker 2: issue is defending standard downs explosiveness. They're ninety first in

999
00:49:26,840 --> 00:49:29,040
Speaker 2: the country, which is why you may see ian book

1000
00:49:29,080 --> 00:49:31,399
Speaker 2: take shots at the and it definitely at the ten

1001
00:49:31,480 --> 00:49:34,880
Speaker 2: yard fifteen yard range, you know. And I think Tommy Rees,

1002
00:49:35,239 --> 00:49:37,560
Speaker 2: who has been heavy rush the entire season as the

1003
00:49:37,560 --> 00:49:40,719
Speaker 2: offensive coordinator for Notre Dame, he opened up the playbook

1004
00:49:41,239 --> 00:49:44,960
Speaker 2: against Clemson and made it an even distribution of running pass.

1005
00:49:45,040 --> 00:49:47,000
Speaker 2: And then you know, once Notre Dame got passed that

1006
00:49:47,040 --> 00:49:49,160
Speaker 2: game back to the heavy rush, I think we open

1007
00:49:49,200 --> 00:49:51,000
Speaker 2: it back up and Notre Dame will be throwing some more,

1008
00:49:51,040 --> 00:49:54,040
Speaker 2: which is a feather in you know the side of

1009
00:49:54,560 --> 00:49:58,000
Speaker 2: you know the over here, but there's just one thing,

1010
00:49:58,000 --> 00:50:01,080
Speaker 2: and I know it's it's a statistical thing in the box,

1011
00:50:01,200 --> 00:50:04,840
Speaker 2: and it's an eyeball thing stuck. That Notre Dame domination

1012
00:50:05,000 --> 00:50:09,000
Speaker 2: of North Carolina, especially in the second half. I can't

1013
00:50:09,080 --> 00:50:13,360
Speaker 2: get over it. Sam Howe had one explosive drive in

1014
00:50:13,440 --> 00:50:15,839
Speaker 2: the entire game and a twenty one percent success rate

1015
00:50:15,920 --> 00:50:18,960
Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter and twenty four rushing attempts by you,

1016
00:50:19,080 --> 00:50:24,040
Speaker 2: and see Notre Dame stuff fifteen of twenty four. I can't.

1017
00:50:24,200 --> 00:50:26,080
Speaker 3: And then we see UNC We'll go put up eight

1018
00:50:26,239 --> 00:50:28,480
Speaker 3: hundred points against Miami after there.

1019
00:50:28,840 --> 00:50:32,040
Speaker 2: If Notre Dame and Clark Lee, the new Vanderbilt head coach,

1020
00:50:32,080 --> 00:50:34,440
Speaker 2: can't wait to see the offensive coordinator higher there. If

1021
00:50:34,480 --> 00:50:37,640
Speaker 2: they play the way that they did against North Carolina,

1022
00:50:38,160 --> 00:50:41,000
Speaker 2: Traves ETN is gonna get shut down again. And what

1023
00:50:41,040 --> 00:50:43,480
Speaker 2: the hell was Trevor Lawrence throwing it directly to a

1024
00:50:43,560 --> 00:50:46,960
Speaker 2: Virginia diablo for Virginia Tech and the enzone?

1025
00:50:47,040 --> 00:50:49,960
Speaker 3: I mean right, he threw another one that got dropped

1026
00:50:49,960 --> 00:50:50,960
Speaker 3: it pick fIF.

1027
00:50:51,040 --> 00:50:53,920
Speaker 2: Are we sure? I can't believe I'm saying this out

1028
00:50:53,960 --> 00:50:57,759
Speaker 2: loud as somebody that has essentially adopted Trevor Lawrence. It

1029
00:50:57,800 --> 00:51:01,040
Speaker 2: is my household name last three years. Are we sure

1030
00:51:01,080 --> 00:51:04,200
Speaker 2: that Trevor Lawrence is an upgrade from DJ? I'm not exact.

1031
00:51:04,200 --> 00:51:06,040
Speaker 2: I mean, after I saw what happened in Virginia Tech.

1032
00:51:06,200 --> 00:51:07,959
Speaker 2: And maybe he'll prove me wrong here. You know, maybe

1033
00:51:08,000 --> 00:51:09,879
Speaker 2: maybe it's just a little fluke and he's getting warmed

1034
00:51:09,920 --> 00:51:14,000
Speaker 2: up after the COVID. We'll see. So, you know, both defenses.

1035
00:51:14,120 --> 00:51:15,840
Speaker 2: Here's the reason why I lean to the under. I know,

1036
00:51:15,880 --> 00:51:16,879
Speaker 2: I project sixty five.

1037
00:51:16,920 --> 00:51:18,120
Speaker 3: I have to take I'll take a ten and a

1038
00:51:18,160 --> 00:51:18,680
Speaker 3: half right now.

1039
00:51:19,040 --> 00:51:21,759
Speaker 2: H yeah, I know, I know, right, I mean, And

1040
00:51:21,800 --> 00:51:24,080
Speaker 2: if it goes under, listen to this. This is what

1041
00:51:24,200 --> 00:51:26,799
Speaker 2: really made my mind of that I'm gonna stick tight

1042
00:51:26,840 --> 00:51:30,359
Speaker 2: on believing that this is an undergame. Both defenses top

1043
00:51:30,400 --> 00:51:33,040
Speaker 2: eight and opponent drives of two minutes or less. The

1044
00:51:33,080 --> 00:51:36,280
Speaker 2: defenses get the other team off the field top thirteen

1045
00:51:36,320 --> 00:51:39,480
Speaker 2: and drives of six plays or less. This could be

1046
00:51:39,520 --> 00:51:43,040
Speaker 2: a three and out punt fest. These defenses are excellent

1047
00:51:43,160 --> 00:51:46,279
Speaker 2: getting the other team off of the field. We've talked

1048
00:51:46,320 --> 00:51:48,840
Speaker 2: about how Clemson's rush has been broken all year long.

1049
00:51:49,160 --> 00:51:51,440
Speaker 2: I don't know where Trevor Lawrence is throwing the ball.

1050
00:51:51,960 --> 00:51:54,160
Speaker 2: The Skalski is what's gonna make up my mind here.

1051
00:51:54,239 --> 00:51:56,840
Speaker 2: I've got Notre Dame plus eleven in my back pocket.

1052
00:51:57,239 --> 00:51:59,760
Speaker 2: I'm gonna watch Skowski move in the first two drives.

1053
00:52:00,200 --> 00:52:02,640
Speaker 2: If I don't see him keeping up with crossing routes

1054
00:52:02,680 --> 00:52:04,400
Speaker 2: and I don't see him plugging the A, B and

1055
00:52:04,440 --> 00:52:07,239
Speaker 2: C gap on rushing attempts, I'm gonna let the Notre

1056
00:52:07,320 --> 00:52:09,839
Speaker 2: Dame thing run and I might take him live. But

1057
00:52:09,880 --> 00:52:13,640
Speaker 2: Askowski is full health, then you know, both defenses should

1058
00:52:13,680 --> 00:52:16,440
Speaker 2: absolutely roll in this game, which plays into you know,

1059
00:52:16,480 --> 00:52:18,439
Speaker 2: a low total. It should play in a Notre Dame too.

1060
00:52:19,080 --> 00:52:20,840
Speaker 2: I just can't get over to the market. The market

1061
00:52:20,880 --> 00:52:23,719
Speaker 2: in my eyes, and it's not always right. But you know,

1062
00:52:23,960 --> 00:52:26,560
Speaker 2: Notre Dame is just taking hillatious amounts of tickets and

1063
00:52:26,600 --> 00:52:29,200
Speaker 2: money that number every time it dips in nine and

1064
00:52:29,200 --> 00:52:32,320
Speaker 2: a half, scoop back up, pinged as quick as possible.

1065
00:52:32,640 --> 00:52:35,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm doing it.

1066
00:52:34,600 --> 00:52:36,080
Speaker 2: Live action here on the podcast.

1067
00:52:36,280 --> 00:52:39,279
Speaker 3: Plus, we're fans of Brian Kelly. Now he he didn't

1068
00:52:39,280 --> 00:52:41,200
Speaker 3: get in against Georgia Tech. Then he covered when I

1069
00:52:41,200 --> 00:52:43,920
Speaker 3: had them against Notre against Clemson, right, so we liked

1070
00:52:43,960 --> 00:52:46,920
Speaker 3: them there. And then I had BC plus fourteen and

1071
00:52:46,920 --> 00:52:50,600
Speaker 3: a half and he didn't punch it in late and

1072
00:52:51,040 --> 00:52:53,480
Speaker 3: they gave a touchdown to BC. So he got back

1073
00:52:53,520 --> 00:52:55,920
Speaker 3: on our good side. And then we had actually might

1074
00:52:55,960 --> 00:52:57,319
Speaker 3: be back on our bands, because then I had you

1075
00:52:57,360 --> 00:52:59,000
Speaker 3: and C and then I had the Syracuse under a

1076
00:52:59,040 --> 00:53:01,919
Speaker 3: Notre Dame's defense. Show up, Clean it up, Kelly, get

1077
00:53:01,920 --> 00:53:03,359
Speaker 3: back on my good side.

1078
00:53:03,600 --> 00:53:05,960
Speaker 4: Hope you're enjoying this great Action network podcast. I want

1079
00:53:05,960 --> 00:53:08,120
Speaker 4: to make sure you know about the Locked On podcast

1080
00:53:08,160 --> 00:53:11,520
Speaker 4: network Locked On as a daily podcast on your favorite team.

1081
00:53:11,680 --> 00:53:13,879
Speaker 2: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers. You are locked

1082
00:53:13,880 --> 00:53:15,680
Speaker 2: out of the Dallas marriage. We came everybody for the

1083
00:53:15,680 --> 00:53:16,920
Speaker 2: Lockdown Lakers podcast.

1084
00:53:17,120 --> 00:53:17,680
Speaker 3: Let's go.

1085
00:53:17,960 --> 00:53:20,879
Speaker 4: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

1086
00:53:20,920 --> 00:53:23,120
Speaker 4: know your team better than anyone and give you the

1087
00:53:23,200 --> 00:53:25,960
Speaker 4: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

1088
00:53:26,160 --> 00:53:30,480
Speaker 4: locked on your favorite team. Subscribe to your locked on podcast.

1089
00:53:33,719 --> 00:53:35,680
Speaker 3: If we're gonna get to Florida, Alabama, we got two

1090
00:53:35,760 --> 00:53:39,000
Speaker 3: other conference championship games to get too quickly. Before that,

1091
00:53:39,080 --> 00:53:42,239
Speaker 3: we got to talk Chance, Chance, Triple C Nation.

1092
00:53:44,120 --> 00:53:47,840
Speaker 7: Hey there, it's producer Man. It is with a heavy

1093
00:53:47,880 --> 00:53:50,640
Speaker 7: heart that I report that the Sun Belt Championship Game

1094
00:53:50,880 --> 00:53:56,520
Speaker 7: was indeed canceled shortly after this podcast was recorded, and

1095
00:53:56,560 --> 00:53:59,440
Speaker 7: the conference will named co champions. And I know what

1096
00:53:59,480 --> 00:54:00,279
Speaker 7: you're thinking.

1097
00:54:00,600 --> 00:54:03,200
Speaker 2: It's fucked up, but that is the way it is.

1098
00:54:03,719 --> 00:54:07,000
Speaker 7: But it's always when thinking or betting about the Sun Belt,

1099
00:54:07,400 --> 00:54:13,520
Speaker 7: always remember and also don't let the latest come between

1100
00:54:13,600 --> 00:54:14,320
Speaker 7: you and the Belt.

1101
00:54:15,120 --> 00:54:18,760
Speaker 3: All right, last, well, before we get to Alabama, Florida,

1102
00:54:18,840 --> 00:54:22,920
Speaker 3: we have eight Eastern on ABC the AAC Championship. This

1103
00:54:22,960 --> 00:54:24,840
Speaker 3: is the third time these teams are supposed to have played.

1104
00:54:24,880 --> 00:54:27,439
Speaker 3: I think hopefully it still goes on at betam GM.

1105
00:54:27,480 --> 00:54:32,759
Speaker 3: Cincinnati is a fourteen point favorite at home over under

1106
00:54:32,800 --> 00:54:35,960
Speaker 3: forty five and a half. Look, I'll tell you my

1107
00:54:36,080 --> 00:54:41,080
Speaker 3: cap on this game. The Tulsa offense is fathatic. I

1108
00:54:41,080 --> 00:54:43,719
Speaker 3: mean it really is. They this is a team. I

1109
00:54:43,800 --> 00:54:45,239
Speaker 3: like the first half under I'll let me just throw

1110
00:54:45,239 --> 00:54:47,640
Speaker 3: that out there. First first half under twenty three. I

1111
00:54:47,640 --> 00:54:51,520
Speaker 3: think it's out there now. Tulsa is averaging You're not

1112
00:54:51,520 --> 00:54:53,400
Speaker 3: even gonna believe this is a team. The AAC Championship

1113
00:54:53,440 --> 00:54:56,280
Speaker 3: game a team. It's six and one. They're averaging eight

1114
00:54:56,640 --> 00:55:01,000
Speaker 3: points per first half. Eight. It's one hundred and twenty

1115
00:55:01,040 --> 00:55:03,560
Speaker 3: first out of one hundred and twenty seven FBS teams.

1116
00:55:03,560 --> 00:55:07,239
Speaker 3: Here's the teams that they that have averaged fewer, Arizona,

1117
00:55:07,360 --> 00:55:11,000
Speaker 3: Utah State, UMass, Bowling, Green, Vandy in Kansas. That's it.

1118
00:55:11,480 --> 00:55:14,680
Speaker 3: I Meanwhile, since he's allowing nine points per first half,

1119
00:55:14,680 --> 00:55:20,640
Speaker 3: it's top fifteen nationally. Tulsa has scored one touchdown combined

1120
00:55:21,320 --> 00:55:24,960
Speaker 3: in their past four games. They've averaged four points per

1121
00:55:25,000 --> 00:55:31,320
Speaker 3: first half in those four games against ECU, SMU, Navy,

1122
00:55:31,600 --> 00:55:36,240
Speaker 3: and Tulane. These aren't top twenty defenses, right. The offense

1123
00:55:36,360 --> 00:55:39,279
Speaker 3: isn't working, especially early off for whatever reason. Zach Simis

1124
00:55:39,560 --> 00:55:41,719
Speaker 3: is rusty as hell. They also are not efficient. They

1125
00:55:41,760 --> 00:55:44,560
Speaker 3: can't run the ball. They can't run the ball at all.

1126
00:55:44,600 --> 00:55:46,520
Speaker 3: I mean, I know that they lost their Jabari Brooks

1127
00:55:46,560 --> 00:55:48,800
Speaker 3: before the year started. To twenty ACL their ninetieth and

1128
00:55:48,880 --> 00:55:52,400
Speaker 3: rushing success rate averaging four yards per carry. That's seventy

1129
00:55:52,480 --> 00:55:55,239
Speaker 3: ninth in the country. And then you have Cincinnati is

1130
00:55:55,280 --> 00:55:56,920
Speaker 3: one of the best pass defenses in the nation. So

1131
00:55:56,960 --> 00:56:00,400
Speaker 3: I don't know how they can move the ball. Basically

1132
00:56:00,400 --> 00:56:02,640
Speaker 3: what Tolsa has done every game this year, and I've

1133
00:56:02,640 --> 00:56:05,560
Speaker 3: made money on them doing it, except that that Tulane

1134
00:56:05,600 --> 00:56:09,080
Speaker 3: game in overtime. They've relied on like Hail Mary's getting

1135
00:56:09,120 --> 00:56:11,759
Speaker 3: down twenty one and then just chucking it and hitting

1136
00:56:11,800 --> 00:56:15,560
Speaker 3: explosive plays to come back. They're just not an efficient offense,

1137
00:56:15,600 --> 00:56:17,319
Speaker 3: so I don't see them doing anything against Sinci and

1138
00:56:17,360 --> 00:56:19,080
Speaker 3: anybody have some rusty of these teams haven't played in

1139
00:56:19,120 --> 00:56:21,239
Speaker 3: a while. I'm sure Marcus Freeman is one of my

1140
00:56:21,280 --> 00:56:24,279
Speaker 3: favorite defensive quarters. I'll come up with something here. He's

1141
00:56:24,320 --> 00:56:27,359
Speaker 3: one of the best in the business. So first half

1142
00:56:27,440 --> 00:56:29,319
Speaker 3: under allows me to avoid the late Tulsa magic. And

1143
00:56:29,360 --> 00:56:31,040
Speaker 3: also since he is up a lot and wants to

1144
00:56:31,160 --> 00:56:34,200
Speaker 3: run it up and make a statement to the committee

1145
00:56:34,239 --> 00:56:36,040
Speaker 3: and that they've dropped and are basically out of the

1146
00:56:36,040 --> 00:56:38,920
Speaker 3: College ball playoff running now, I mean, this is a

1147
00:56:38,920 --> 00:56:41,439
Speaker 3: Tulsa team that has been shut out in a couple

1148
00:56:41,560 --> 00:56:45,640
Speaker 3: first halfs this year. Sixteen offense, sixteen points in the

1149
00:56:45,640 --> 00:56:49,880
Speaker 3: first half over the last four games against non elite defenses.

1150
00:56:49,920 --> 00:56:53,719
Speaker 3: That's crazy. Tulsa offense eightieth and success or eight seventieth

1151
00:56:53,719 --> 00:56:57,240
Speaker 3: in explosiveness, They're not even great and exposed to this overall,

1152
00:56:57,280 --> 00:56:59,880
Speaker 3: they just hit timely explosive plays. That's not gonna last forever.

1153
00:57:00,400 --> 00:57:03,240
Speaker 3: So I the Cincinnati defense is elite, and the Tulsa

1154
00:57:03,280 --> 00:57:04,880
Speaker 3: defense is also really good. By the way, i'n't even

1155
00:57:04,960 --> 00:57:07,279
Speaker 3: mentioned that. Yes, Cincinnati's offensive better, Ritter has been better,

1156
00:57:07,280 --> 00:57:09,799
Speaker 3: but this is the best defense to Cincinnati's face by far.

1157
00:57:10,280 --> 00:57:13,640
Speaker 3: Jackson player up front, Collins at linebacker. I mean, there's

1158
00:57:13,680 --> 00:57:18,400
Speaker 3: some talent. It's Tulsa secondary, some long corners. So Tulsa's

1159
00:57:18,400 --> 00:57:20,920
Speaker 3: defense I think can hold its own here. I like

1160
00:57:20,920 --> 00:57:23,520
Speaker 3: the first half under your thoughts here, Well, you.

1161
00:57:23,480 --> 00:57:25,880
Speaker 2: Know, if Bren Davis is a quarterback, third string quarterback,

1162
00:57:25,920 --> 00:57:28,160
Speaker 2: then maybe we can get some offensive points on the board. Right.

1163
00:57:28,200 --> 00:57:29,840
Speaker 2: I mean that game against too late, it was one

1164
00:57:29,880 --> 00:57:33,120
Speaker 2: of the craziest things I've ever seen. I want to

1165
00:57:33,160 --> 00:57:37,600
Speaker 2: echo your sentiment about Tulsa's been able to pull shit

1166
00:57:37,640 --> 00:57:41,440
Speaker 2: out of their ass and bang explosive plays. And that

1167
00:57:41,560 --> 00:57:45,880
Speaker 2: shows in the stats because Tulsa's terrible success, right, Tulsa

1168
00:57:45,960 --> 00:57:49,600
Speaker 2: is terrible and explosiveness, but there is one area where

1169
00:57:49,640 --> 00:57:53,439
Speaker 2: they're really good. Tulsa is twenty sixth in the nation

1170
00:57:54,120 --> 00:57:58,040
Speaker 2: in passing downs explosiveness. It's almost like they can't function

1171
00:57:58,160 --> 00:58:02,160
Speaker 2: unless they're in third and thirteen, second and twelve, third

1172
00:58:02,160 --> 00:58:05,280
Speaker 2: and twenty. It's like this offense is not capable of

1173
00:58:05,320 --> 00:58:09,080
Speaker 2: doing anything unless they are completely out of range from

1174
00:58:09,120 --> 00:58:12,520
Speaker 2: getting a first down. And you know, I think that's

1175
00:58:12,520 --> 00:58:14,000
Speaker 2: the way that this game is going to be able

1176
00:58:14,000 --> 00:58:17,080
Speaker 2: to play out. Cincinnati should absolutely, the defense should absolutely

1177
00:58:17,080 --> 00:58:20,280
Speaker 2: be able to shut Tulsa down in so many different scenarios.

1178
00:58:20,320 --> 00:58:22,919
Speaker 2: But man, if it's third and sixteen and Cincinnati needs

1179
00:58:22,920 --> 00:58:24,560
Speaker 2: a stop, that's when you need to, you know, kind

1180
00:58:24,600 --> 00:58:26,840
Speaker 2: of cross your fingers, because I feel like Tulsa has

1181
00:58:26,840 --> 00:58:29,280
Speaker 2: a better chance of getting a first down the further

1182
00:58:29,360 --> 00:58:32,120
Speaker 2: they are are away from the yard markers.

1183
00:58:32,240 --> 00:58:34,520
Speaker 3: Yea tu Lange. They had like fourth and thirteen they

1184
00:58:34,520 --> 00:58:37,280
Speaker 3: would convert like multiple times, and then they had a

1185
00:58:37,280 --> 00:58:40,240
Speaker 3: hail Mary they completed, and then they scored a ninety

1186
00:58:40,280 --> 00:58:41,960
Speaker 3: nine yard pick six Like these are how they they

1187
00:58:41,960 --> 00:58:42,400
Speaker 3: scored this.

1188
00:58:42,440 --> 00:58:44,400
Speaker 2: Year and it's not a one off. I mean that

1189
00:58:44,560 --> 00:58:47,720
Speaker 2: is an actual statistical measure in passing down to their

1190
00:58:47,720 --> 00:58:52,160
Speaker 2: twenty six in explosiveness. They just love high pressure situations

1191
00:58:52,200 --> 00:58:53,720
Speaker 2: and long do I don't know what the hell. I

1192
00:58:53,720 --> 00:58:55,360
Speaker 2: don't know how you train a club to be good

1193
00:58:55,360 --> 00:58:57,720
Speaker 2: at only that, but that's what Tulsa is. They're the

1194
00:58:57,760 --> 00:59:01,160
Speaker 2: scramble master. They're the busted play masters. So listen, I

1195
00:59:01,240 --> 00:59:04,560
Speaker 2: made a tweet about motivation in this game. Like all

1196
00:59:04,600 --> 00:59:06,240
Speaker 2: the trolls that like to fave, all the people that

1197
00:59:06,320 --> 00:59:09,320
Speaker 2: like to respond to me, Listen, this is personal and Tulsa,

1198
00:59:09,360 --> 00:59:11,840
Speaker 2: it absolutely is. I mean, I don't want to hear it.

1199
00:59:11,880 --> 00:59:14,480
Speaker 2: I mean, Tulsa was gonna have homecoming. It was a

1200
00:59:14,520 --> 00:59:16,960
Speaker 2: really big deal because Oklahoma and Oklahoma State did not

1201
00:59:17,040 --> 00:59:19,960
Speaker 2: play that weekend and the state of Oklahoma and the

1202
00:59:20,000 --> 00:59:22,160
Speaker 2: eyeballs and the news everything was going to go to

1203
00:59:22,240 --> 00:59:24,360
Speaker 2: the University of Tulsa. That's a really big deal to

1204
00:59:24,400 --> 00:59:27,960
Speaker 2: that program, especially from a recruiting standpoint. And Cincinnati decided

1205
00:59:28,040 --> 00:59:31,439
Speaker 2: not make the trip, homecoming is ruined. Then Luke Fickle says,

1206
00:59:31,840 --> 00:59:32,800
Speaker 2: we could have made the trip.

1207
00:59:33,160 --> 00:59:35,200
Speaker 3: I don't know what you to pull, this amateur bull

1208
00:59:35,280 --> 00:59:38,240
Speaker 3: trap all right to your airbite, do you understand by?

1209
00:59:38,480 --> 00:59:41,760
Speaker 2: And so now we have this back to back game setup,

1210
00:59:42,160 --> 00:59:45,440
Speaker 2: and when you know it, Cincinnati has COVID and AAC

1211
00:59:45,640 --> 00:59:48,120
Speaker 2: comes out and says, well, Cincinnati will be the ones

1212
00:59:48,160 --> 00:59:50,680
Speaker 2: to host the championship game. Why in the Sam Hill

1213
00:59:50,720 --> 00:59:53,640
Speaker 2: would Cincinnati go to Tulsa when they've been guaranteed a

1214
00:59:53,760 --> 00:59:56,880
Speaker 2: home field game. For the championship. So really, what Cincinnati

1215
00:59:56,920 --> 00:59:59,320
Speaker 2: did and I'm not saying, you know, I don't want

1216
00:59:59,320 --> 01:00:01,040
Speaker 2: to accuse him of not having COVID and I don't

1217
01:00:01,040 --> 01:00:03,800
Speaker 2: want to accuse him of dodging Tulsa the entire season.

1218
01:00:04,560 --> 01:00:07,320
Speaker 2: But what you did by not playing these games is

1219
01:00:07,400 --> 01:00:09,800
Speaker 2: you kicked your own ass out of the college football

1220
01:00:09,800 --> 01:00:12,720
Speaker 2: playoff discussion because you've dropped each week. You haven't played

1221
01:00:13,160 --> 01:00:15,120
Speaker 2: for the sake of the fact that having home field

1222
01:00:15,160 --> 01:00:20,440
Speaker 2: advantage for your conference championship. So enjoy your AAC championship

1223
01:00:20,480 --> 01:00:23,840
Speaker 2: home field advantage. But you actually, in my belief, had

1224
01:00:23,880 --> 01:00:26,040
Speaker 2: a real shot to make the college football playoff. You

1225
01:00:26,040 --> 01:00:28,200
Speaker 2: could have pulled a BYU and Coastal and actually done

1226
01:00:28,200 --> 01:00:30,560
Speaker 2: something about it. Maybe played Texas, A and M. I

1227
01:00:30,600 --> 01:00:34,320
Speaker 2: don't know, but I really think, you know, Cincinnati is

1228
01:00:34,360 --> 01:00:36,880
Speaker 2: the reason their own fault, you know that. Being said, you.

1229
01:00:36,920 --> 01:00:38,600
Speaker 3: Got to wrap your town by the way, you're your

1230
01:00:38,600 --> 01:00:39,200
Speaker 3: town right now?

1231
01:00:39,360 --> 01:00:41,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I love I listen. I mean, I live here,

1232
01:00:41,680 --> 01:00:44,520
Speaker 2: and I can't tell you I was married. My god,

1233
01:00:44,560 --> 01:00:46,920
Speaker 2: I forgot about this. My ex wife was a Tulsa grad,

1234
01:00:47,000 --> 01:00:48,840
Speaker 2: so I hear about this shit all the time, and.

1235
01:00:48,880 --> 01:00:51,080
Speaker 3: You forgot you were married. Is that why your divorced a.

1236
01:00:51,000 --> 01:00:51,640
Speaker 2: Long time ago?

1237
01:00:51,680 --> 01:00:51,960
Speaker 3: I was.

1238
01:00:52,040 --> 01:00:54,800
Speaker 2: It feels like I mean like that that was a

1239
01:00:54,840 --> 01:00:57,960
Speaker 2: really big weekend for Cincinnati to pull out of And

1240
01:00:58,000 --> 01:01:00,600
Speaker 2: where does that factor into motivation and can you get

1241
01:01:00,640 --> 01:01:03,120
Speaker 2: extra motivated for a conference championship game. Let me just

1242
01:01:03,120 --> 01:01:05,360
Speaker 2: say this is somebody that's like, had a professional career

1243
01:01:05,360 --> 01:01:07,960
Speaker 2: for twenty years. You can prep yourself and you can

1244
01:01:08,000 --> 01:01:11,440
Speaker 2: be ready, but when things become personal, your focus and

1245
01:01:11,480 --> 01:01:14,440
Speaker 2: your drive and your motivation is just it's you know,

1246
01:01:14,720 --> 01:01:17,320
Speaker 2: it's just it's even more. And I feel like Tulsa's

1247
01:01:17,360 --> 01:01:18,880
Speaker 2: going to be that way, And I agree with you, Stuck.

1248
01:01:18,920 --> 01:01:20,439
Speaker 2: I think the first half under is a great play.

1249
01:01:20,720 --> 01:01:22,520
Speaker 2: I think the defense. I think Zavion Collins will be

1250
01:01:22,560 --> 01:01:23,960
Speaker 2: playing out of his mind. I think he'll be all

1251
01:01:24,000 --> 01:01:27,920
Speaker 2: over the place. And I see everything that tells me

1252
01:01:28,000 --> 01:01:29,960
Speaker 2: that Tulsa's going to be able to stop this Desmond

1253
01:01:30,000 --> 01:01:34,240
Speaker 2: Ritter explosiveness, especially from a passing perspective. When Desmind Ritter

1254
01:01:34,280 --> 01:01:36,520
Speaker 2: takes off out of the pocket, Zavon Collins is going

1255
01:01:36,600 --> 01:01:38,320
Speaker 2: to be able to track him down. I think that's

1256
01:01:38,360 --> 01:01:41,000
Speaker 2: going to be his mission objective for the game. So

1257
01:01:41,080 --> 01:01:43,480
Speaker 2: I agree with you on the first half under, I

1258
01:01:43,520 --> 01:01:45,200
Speaker 2: make the game twelve and a half. I want to

1259
01:01:45,240 --> 01:01:47,960
Speaker 2: side with Tulsa here. I feel, you know, I didn't

1260
01:01:48,000 --> 01:01:50,200
Speaker 2: get a piece of that sixteen and a half out

1261
01:01:50,200 --> 01:01:51,919
Speaker 2: of the market early in the week, and now I'm

1262
01:01:51,920 --> 01:01:54,000
Speaker 2: just kind of hanging around on fourteen fourteen and a half,

1263
01:01:54,240 --> 01:01:56,280
Speaker 2: not sure if I'm gonna buy it. Pregame, I agree

1264
01:01:56,320 --> 01:01:58,840
Speaker 2: with your first half under. I like Tulsa in this game,

1265
01:01:59,720 --> 01:02:03,560
Speaker 2: but Cincinnati, you're the reason that you're not that you're

1266
01:02:03,600 --> 01:02:05,720
Speaker 2: dropping in the college football playoff rankings, and you can

1267
01:02:05,760 --> 01:02:07,840
Speaker 2: only blame yourself for not making it into the playoff.

1268
01:02:08,680 --> 01:02:11,480
Speaker 3: Tulsa, I think it's formerly known, are still known, is

1269
01:02:11,600 --> 01:02:13,480
Speaker 3: what the oil capital of the country.

1270
01:02:13,560 --> 01:02:15,680
Speaker 2: Oh? Absolutely. We have the Tulsa Driller here. He's like

1271
01:02:15,680 --> 01:02:19,360
Speaker 2: a sixty foot tall statue. There's oil rigs and people's

1272
01:02:19,360 --> 01:02:23,080
Speaker 2: backyards here in midtown. You know, I live like two

1273
01:02:23,440 --> 01:02:26,640
Speaker 2: miles from Southern Hills where the PGA championship was in

1274
01:02:26,680 --> 01:02:28,919
Speaker 2: two thousand and seven, the tire one like it. There's

1275
01:02:28,920 --> 01:02:30,720
Speaker 2: a lot of money in Tulsa, a lot of oil

1276
01:02:30,720 --> 01:02:34,680
Speaker 2: money in Tulsa, and the university's private right, and so

1277
01:02:34,800 --> 01:02:36,920
Speaker 2: it's really hard for recruits, because you have to remember

1278
01:02:36,960 --> 01:02:39,040
Speaker 2: it's only a ninety minute drive over to Fayetteville. So

1279
01:02:39,120 --> 01:02:41,840
Speaker 2: Arkansas comes in and takes all the baseball players, takes

1280
01:02:41,840 --> 01:02:45,080
Speaker 2: some football players. Oklahoma State still waters an hour away,

1281
01:02:45,120 --> 01:02:47,040
Speaker 2: they come in and take football players. Oh you gets

1282
01:02:47,040 --> 01:02:48,800
Speaker 2: their pick of the litter out of the entire state.

1283
01:02:49,320 --> 01:02:51,720
Speaker 2: And Oklahoma high school football, they have like three or

1284
01:02:51,720 --> 01:02:56,160
Speaker 2: four teams that are ranked nationally ranked nationally Oklahoma football

1285
01:02:56,240 --> 01:02:58,160
Speaker 2: high school is a really big deal. So all I'm

1286
01:02:58,200 --> 01:03:00,840
Speaker 2: trying to say is this is a very very personal

1287
01:03:00,880 --> 01:03:01,640
Speaker 2: game for Tulsa.

1288
01:03:02,000 --> 01:03:03,800
Speaker 3: All right, there you have it. It's enough about the

1289
01:03:04,600 --> 01:03:09,960
Speaker 3: nine to one eight. Let's move on to the SEC championship.

1290
01:03:10,040 --> 01:03:13,160
Speaker 3: Our final conference championship game will cover. I'm excited for

1291
01:03:13,200 --> 01:03:14,880
Speaker 3: this one, even though it's a high spread. There's a

1292
01:03:14,880 --> 01:03:18,720
Speaker 3: bunch of hot spreads, large spreads this weekend. But I'm

1293
01:03:18,760 --> 01:03:21,200
Speaker 3: excited to watch these two offenses play at at MGM.

1294
01:03:21,520 --> 01:03:24,160
Speaker 3: Album is a seventeen and a half point favorite over

1295
01:03:24,280 --> 01:03:27,320
Speaker 3: under seventy four and a half. I'll keep this simple.

1296
01:03:27,560 --> 01:03:29,400
Speaker 3: I said it last week. I tweeted it already. I

1297
01:03:29,400 --> 01:03:30,919
Speaker 3: don't need to go to in depth here. I said,

1298
01:03:30,960 --> 01:03:33,560
Speaker 3: all right, here's what happened Florida and lost to LSU.

1299
01:03:34,200 --> 01:03:37,320
Speaker 3: Bring drive up that line, give me over seventeen, and

1300
01:03:37,400 --> 01:03:39,440
Speaker 3: it happened, and I got over my over seventeen, and

1301
01:03:39,440 --> 01:03:41,280
Speaker 3: I'm happy. I don't think it gets a twenty, so

1302
01:03:41,400 --> 01:03:43,920
Speaker 3: I didn't want to wait. But if you only have

1303
01:03:43,960 --> 01:03:45,840
Speaker 3: seventeen at year book, there's seventy nine and halves out

1304
01:03:45,840 --> 01:03:47,360
Speaker 3: there right now. You wait and there's I mean, the

1305
01:03:47,360 --> 01:03:49,280
Speaker 3: whole world's gonna bet Bama here. They're eight and two

1306
01:03:49,280 --> 01:03:52,240
Speaker 3: against the spread, and they're Alabama. They're the clear best

1307
01:03:52,240 --> 01:03:55,360
Speaker 3: team in the country. I don't doubt that. But this line,

1308
01:03:55,560 --> 01:03:58,600
Speaker 3: I make a very very small touch under fourteen, So

1309
01:03:58,640 --> 01:04:01,360
Speaker 3: I will gladly take seventeen and a half. And the

1310
01:04:01,400 --> 01:04:04,200
Speaker 3: Alabama offense is elite. There's I don't need to go there.

1311
01:04:04,240 --> 01:04:07,240
Speaker 3: The Florida defense is not that good, especially against the past.

1312
01:04:07,280 --> 01:04:10,280
Speaker 3: They're ninety seventh. Thinking explosive pass is a loud that's

1313
01:04:10,320 --> 01:04:12,480
Speaker 3: not great. Against Alabama, They're not gonna get many stops.

1314
01:04:12,600 --> 01:04:15,560
Speaker 3: But I think Florida's offense can keep up. Why do

1315
01:04:15,640 --> 01:04:17,960
Speaker 3: I think that, well Number one last week. Why we're

1316
01:04:17,960 --> 01:04:19,840
Speaker 3: getting value here in this line is because what happened

1317
01:04:19,840 --> 01:04:22,439
Speaker 3: with Florida last week, and you know, people just see

1318
01:04:22,440 --> 01:04:25,520
Speaker 3: Bama crush more and more teams. But Florida was clearly

1319
01:04:25,600 --> 01:04:27,240
Speaker 3: looking ahead of this game and they didn't even play

1320
01:04:27,240 --> 01:04:30,440
Speaker 3: their best player. And Kyle Pitts did matchup Nightmare. This

1321
01:04:30,520 --> 01:04:33,160
Speaker 3: is one of the top three, along with Dante Smith,

1322
01:04:33,560 --> 01:04:35,680
Speaker 3: one of the top three pass cutchers. Wide receivers are

1323
01:04:35,720 --> 01:04:37,320
Speaker 3: tight end, he's more, I mean, he's basically a wide

1324
01:04:37,360 --> 01:04:39,680
Speaker 3: receiver in the country. They didn't play him, but this

1325
01:04:39,840 --> 01:04:42,080
Speaker 3: Alabama look the Albabma start off the year they played

1326
01:04:42,280 --> 01:04:44,720
Speaker 3: Missouri Tech saying them and then All Miss and after

1327
01:04:44,760 --> 01:04:47,840
Speaker 3: that All Miss game, everyone including us, there's some questions

1328
01:04:47,880 --> 01:04:52,280
Speaker 3: about this Alabama pass defense outside of certain and then

1329
01:04:52,560 --> 01:04:55,320
Speaker 3: over time they definitely have improved. That's what's gonna happen

1330
01:04:55,360 --> 01:04:56,960
Speaker 3: as you get games under you belt. But now everyone

1331
01:04:56,960 --> 01:04:59,840
Speaker 3: just says that the Alabama defense is fine and everything's great,

1332
01:05:00,280 --> 01:05:03,520
Speaker 3: But think about it. That Lane Kiffen an old mess.

1333
01:05:03,520 --> 01:05:06,160
Speaker 3: They threw for just under four hundred yards. They scored

1334
01:05:06,200 --> 01:05:09,200
Speaker 3: forty eight points. They averaged thirteen over thirteen yards per pass.

1335
01:05:09,360 --> 01:05:13,240
Speaker 3: Here's who Alabama has played since then. Georgia with Stetson Bennett.

1336
01:05:13,240 --> 01:05:16,440
Speaker 3: He's been since been benched Mississippi State with kJ Costell.

1337
01:05:16,560 --> 01:05:19,640
Speaker 3: He's since been benched Tennessee with Guardantana. He's since been

1338
01:05:19,680 --> 01:05:22,840
Speaker 3: benched LSU with Finley, He's since been benched. I mean,

1339
01:05:23,640 --> 01:05:26,120
Speaker 3: the list goes on and on. They played then Kentucky,

1340
01:05:26,160 --> 01:05:28,800
Speaker 3: one of the worst passing offenses in Power five, bow

1341
01:05:28,920 --> 01:05:33,720
Speaker 3: Nicks bow Knicks season, then Full Effect, and then Arkansas,

1342
01:05:33,720 --> 01:05:38,120
Speaker 3: and then Arkansas, Franks was hurt, played still, then got hurt,

1343
01:05:38,200 --> 01:05:40,760
Speaker 3: and then Jefferson came in, and then Jefferson got hurt

1344
01:05:40,760 --> 01:05:42,880
Speaker 3: and Franks had to go in there hurt again. And

1345
01:05:42,960 --> 01:05:44,680
Speaker 3: Frank's moved the ball a little bit early on in

1346
01:05:44,680 --> 01:05:48,080
Speaker 3: that game. So my point is that they've really played

1347
01:05:48,400 --> 01:05:51,320
Speaker 3: no good passing offenses, and in four or five of

1348
01:05:51,320 --> 01:05:54,000
Speaker 3: them they played backup quarterbacks, so their road has been

1349
01:05:54,120 --> 01:05:56,480
Speaker 3: very easy. They haven't played a top five passing offense

1350
01:05:56,520 --> 01:05:59,440
Speaker 3: like Florida has when Pitts is in there. So I

1351
01:05:59,480 --> 01:06:03,040
Speaker 3: think Florida can move the ball and score enough. Basically,

1352
01:06:03,040 --> 01:06:05,640
Speaker 3: this is just I have value in the line, but

1353
01:06:05,720 --> 01:06:07,680
Speaker 3: I think that they can score enough. BAM was going

1354
01:06:07,760 --> 01:06:10,959
Speaker 3: to get their points to get into the thirties, which

1355
01:06:11,000 --> 01:06:12,320
Speaker 3: is what I think they'll need to do. To cover

1356
01:06:12,400 --> 01:06:14,800
Speaker 3: this number. And if BAM is up twenty one or

1357
01:06:14,800 --> 01:06:18,000
Speaker 3: twenty four late which is why they got seventeen and

1358
01:06:18,000 --> 01:06:20,280
Speaker 3: a half is important. If BAM is up twenty four,

1359
01:06:20,520 --> 01:06:23,520
Speaker 3: you have Florida's offense and Traskic pits to go down

1360
01:06:23,560 --> 01:06:26,320
Speaker 3: there and get you a back door cover. So communicators

1361
01:06:26,360 --> 01:06:29,040
Speaker 3: seventeen and a half. If this line is fourteen, say

1362
01:06:29,080 --> 01:06:32,080
Speaker 3: Florida one by twenty last week and this line was fourteen,

1363
01:06:32,080 --> 01:06:35,840
Speaker 3: which was possible, I probably wouldn't be playing this, but

1364
01:06:36,000 --> 01:06:38,040
Speaker 3: give me seventeen and a half. I'm taking Florida.

1365
01:06:38,160 --> 01:06:41,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I agree with you. And you know it's

1366
01:06:41,160 --> 01:06:44,280
Speaker 2: crazy because Alabama got done put an ass open on

1367
01:06:44,360 --> 01:06:48,400
Speaker 2: Arkansas and the line. There were a number of places

1368
01:06:48,560 --> 01:06:50,400
Speaker 2: offering a look ahead line and the number was at

1369
01:06:50,400 --> 01:06:52,960
Speaker 2: twelve and a half. There was a specific place out

1370
01:06:52,960 --> 01:06:55,440
Speaker 2: in Las Vegas where I was making phone calls like

1371
01:06:55,640 --> 01:06:58,040
Speaker 2: please put this in on the app for me now,

1372
01:06:58,480 --> 01:07:01,000
Speaker 2: and so that number I was able to get a

1373
01:07:01,040 --> 01:07:03,880
Speaker 2: piece of thirteen and a half. Right as Florida and

1374
01:07:03,960 --> 01:07:06,800
Speaker 2: LSU kicked after that first offensive possession, I'm like, you know,

1375
01:07:06,800 --> 01:07:08,400
Speaker 2: I got to fire on this now because if this

1376
01:07:08,400 --> 01:07:10,960
Speaker 2: doesn't turn out well, I think the number will be

1377
01:07:11,040 --> 01:07:15,120
Speaker 2: over fourteen. And sure enough, you know, Marco Wilson's throwing

1378
01:07:15,120 --> 01:07:17,720
Speaker 2: a shoe, Dan Wallan didn't see a thing, and Cade

1379
01:07:17,760 --> 01:07:20,440
Speaker 2: York is kicking a football to Saturn. So you know,

1380
01:07:20,480 --> 01:07:22,480
Speaker 2: next thing, you know, we got a point start of seventeen.

1381
01:07:23,040 --> 01:07:25,880
Speaker 2: That number is crazy. I mean, that's crazy. There's nobody

1382
01:07:25,920 --> 01:07:28,280
Speaker 2: that makes it to half and a half. And you know,

1383
01:07:28,480 --> 01:07:31,880
Speaker 2: I think something. It reminds me of something last year

1384
01:07:31,920 --> 01:07:36,080
Speaker 2: where none of us could power rate LSU properly. And

1385
01:07:36,600 --> 01:07:40,560
Speaker 2: there's this, you know, to reference Sagarin. Sagaran has a

1386
01:07:40,600 --> 01:07:43,680
Speaker 2: power rating, but then they have a recency bias power

1387
01:07:43,760 --> 01:07:46,200
Speaker 2: rating where they give more weight to the last couple

1388
01:07:46,200 --> 01:07:48,480
Speaker 2: of games. And that was really the only way to

1389
01:07:48,520 --> 01:07:51,360
Speaker 2: handicap LSU last year. LSU twenty nineteen, it was just

1390
01:07:51,360 --> 01:07:53,920
Speaker 2: a magical season. Why not news for everybody from a

1391
01:07:53,920 --> 01:07:57,840
Speaker 2: success rate standpoint for offense and defense, Alabama's doing better

1392
01:07:58,120 --> 01:07:59,880
Speaker 2: than what we saw at Joe Burrow last year. That

1393
01:08:00,280 --> 01:08:03,120
Speaker 2: is crazy talk, because what we saw last year was

1394
01:08:03,480 --> 01:08:05,800
Speaker 2: one of the most perfect seasons and offense could ever have.

1395
01:08:05,960 --> 01:08:08,320
Speaker 2: And now I'm telling you that BAMA from a success

1396
01:08:08,440 --> 01:08:11,240
Speaker 2: rate standpoint is better. And by the way, success rate

1397
01:08:11,320 --> 01:08:13,840
Speaker 2: is the biggest indicator of how great a team actually is.

1398
01:08:14,200 --> 01:08:17,880
Speaker 2: So all that being said, we have to figure out

1399
01:08:19,040 --> 01:08:21,400
Speaker 2: where the ceiling is for this Alabama team. Now to

1400
01:08:21,439 --> 01:08:23,960
Speaker 2: Stuck's point about this number at seventeen, it's really important

1401
01:08:24,200 --> 01:08:27,320
Speaker 2: if you think that Alabama being up by twenty seven

1402
01:08:27,439 --> 01:08:29,599
Speaker 2: or twenty four with four minutes left, and Dan Mullen

1403
01:08:29,720 --> 01:08:32,960
Speaker 2: isn't rushing Trask and Pitts and Cadarius Tony down the

1404
01:08:32,960 --> 01:08:35,080
Speaker 2: field to get a back door. There's a New Year

1405
01:08:35,200 --> 01:08:38,160
Speaker 2: six Bowl game here at stake, and JT. Daniels is

1406
01:08:38,360 --> 01:08:39,760
Speaker 2: I know he's not going to get his playing time

1407
01:08:39,800 --> 01:08:42,679
Speaker 2: against Vanderbilt and all that, but George's right on that tail,

1408
01:08:42,800 --> 01:08:45,400
Speaker 2: and that College Football playoff ranking matters for the SEC

1409
01:08:45,479 --> 01:08:47,439
Speaker 2: team that's going to get that New Year six bowl game.

1410
01:08:47,800 --> 01:08:51,280
Speaker 2: And Dan Mullen doesn't want to be playing in the

1411
01:08:51,280 --> 01:08:53,880
Speaker 2: Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl. He doesn't want to be playing

1412
01:08:53,960 --> 01:08:56,200
Speaker 2: in the Liberty Bowl. He won't fall that far, but

1413
01:08:56,560 --> 01:08:58,040
Speaker 2: he wants to be in the New Year six bowls.

1414
01:08:58,080 --> 01:09:00,360
Speaker 2: So trust me, covering the spread is going to be

1415
01:09:00,400 --> 01:09:03,879
Speaker 2: really important if not winning the game. And listen, Alabama

1416
01:09:03,920 --> 01:09:05,760
Speaker 2: is not going to be stopped. I am gonna have

1417
01:09:05,760 --> 01:09:08,200
Speaker 2: a huge ride up on Action Network. Probably had to

1418
01:09:08,240 --> 01:09:10,640
Speaker 2: force myself from quit writing about it. But you know,

1419
01:09:10,680 --> 01:09:13,080
Speaker 2: a few highlights about what's going to happen here. I mean,

1420
01:09:13,080 --> 01:09:17,200
Speaker 2: the Clemson Crimson Crimson Tide have cruised. It's seventy two

1421
01:09:17,280 --> 01:09:20,080
Speaker 2: point two percent of available yards this season. The national

1422
01:09:20,160 --> 01:09:22,960
Speaker 2: average is forty four percent. I mean, they're just shy

1423
01:09:23,040 --> 01:09:25,680
Speaker 2: of doubling available yards, which is if you started at

1424
01:09:25,680 --> 01:09:28,560
Speaker 2: your twenty yard line, you got eighty yards available. Alabama

1425
01:09:28,680 --> 01:09:31,880
Speaker 2: is just putting up unbelievable offensive numbers and I don't

1426
01:09:31,880 --> 01:09:34,400
Speaker 2: think that's going to be stopped by Florida. With Florida,

1427
01:09:34,439 --> 01:09:37,880
Speaker 2: you're looking at ninety fifth and tackling eighty seventh against

1428
01:09:37,920 --> 01:09:41,920
Speaker 2: the Russian success rate, ninety seventh against pass explosiveness, against

1429
01:09:41,920 --> 01:09:45,120
Speaker 2: DeVonta Smith and John Metchi and Mac Jones, who's adjusted

1430
01:09:45,160 --> 01:09:50,080
Speaker 2: completion rate is actually better when he's pressured. That's craziness.

1431
01:09:50,439 --> 01:09:53,120
Speaker 2: So you know, I don't Alabam's going to be able

1432
01:09:53,120 --> 01:09:56,439
Speaker 2: to get whatever they want. And I think people will say,

1433
01:09:56,479 --> 01:09:59,559
Speaker 2: well care Elam is one of the best cornerbacks in

1434
01:09:59,600 --> 01:10:02,439
Speaker 2: the SEC. He is he is, and he's shown it,

1435
01:10:02,439 --> 01:10:05,120
Speaker 2: as you know in the PFF grading. He's one of

1436
01:10:05,160 --> 01:10:07,519
Speaker 2: the best cornerbacks in the nation and he's going to

1437
01:10:07,560 --> 01:10:09,639
Speaker 2: get a signed to DeVonta Smith. And I think those

1438
01:10:09,680 --> 01:10:12,559
Speaker 2: of you that have a Heisman ticket on DeVonta Smith

1439
01:10:12,960 --> 01:10:15,880
Speaker 2: need to realize that he has a shutdown corner on him. Now,

1440
01:10:15,920 --> 01:10:18,320
Speaker 2: whether that's going to stop him, we'll see, but an

1441
01:10:18,400 --> 01:10:21,400
Speaker 2: NFL level cornerback is going to be covering Smith. So

1442
01:10:21,439 --> 01:10:22,720
Speaker 2: I think it's going to be a big day for

1443
01:10:22,880 --> 01:10:24,400
Speaker 2: Naji Harris. I think it's gonna be a big day

1444
01:10:24,400 --> 01:10:26,920
Speaker 2: for John Metchi. I think Mac Jones has plenty of

1445
01:10:26,920 --> 01:10:30,840
Speaker 2: targets to hit from, you know, an Alabama offensive perspective.

1446
01:10:31,360 --> 01:10:33,240
Speaker 2: And when you look at the other side of the ball,

1447
01:10:33,360 --> 01:10:35,240
Speaker 2: that's where I really kind of did a deep dive

1448
01:10:35,280 --> 01:10:38,200
Speaker 2: and say, well, how's Florida going to do this? And

1449
01:10:39,080 --> 01:10:41,160
Speaker 2: when I wrote this on paper, I had to kind

1450
01:10:41,160 --> 01:10:42,800
Speaker 2: of like step back and say I didn't really just

1451
01:10:42,840 --> 01:10:47,799
Speaker 2: say this, did I? But Tennessee lost by twelve. Florida

1452
01:10:47,800 --> 01:10:51,200
Speaker 2: won thirty one to nineteen. And why because Tennessee decided

1453
01:10:51,200 --> 01:10:54,160
Speaker 2: to have two safeties and pull put extra corners on

1454
01:10:54,200 --> 01:10:56,599
Speaker 2: the field and put them in the slot against Kyle

1455
01:10:56,640 --> 01:11:01,200
Speaker 2: Pitts and Cadarius Tony Alabama had as Malachi Moore. He

1456
01:11:01,360 --> 01:11:04,800
Speaker 2: ranks top thirty in all FBS by defenders by slot

1457
01:11:04,920 --> 01:11:09,400
Speaker 2: coverage per PFF. That's huge. I think Malachi Moore is

1458
01:11:09,439 --> 01:11:12,559
Speaker 2: going to draw the Kyle Pitts assignment, and that's just

1459
01:11:12,640 --> 01:11:14,840
Speaker 2: going to be a good on good and maybe it

1460
01:11:14,920 --> 01:11:17,839
Speaker 2: deflates Kyle Pitts's numbers a little bit. I think Darius

1461
01:11:17,840 --> 01:11:22,160
Speaker 2: Tony has a monster monster game here. You mentioned certain

1462
01:11:22,280 --> 01:11:24,200
Speaker 2: you mentioned some other things where the past defense can

1463
01:11:24,240 --> 01:11:26,840
Speaker 2: be a little susceptible. That's where Florida is going to

1464
01:11:26,920 --> 01:11:30,800
Speaker 2: have success. Alabama's not going to be stopped. I think

1465
01:11:30,840 --> 01:11:34,080
Speaker 2: this game is an overgame all the way. I think

1466
01:11:34,160 --> 01:11:38,439
Speaker 2: Alabama team total forty five is an absolute hit. This

1467
01:11:38,479 --> 01:11:40,880
Speaker 2: has got fifty Burger written all over it. Even if

1468
01:11:40,920 --> 01:11:44,120
Speaker 2: it's like, you know, forty three, forty four points in

1469
01:11:44,160 --> 01:11:46,400
Speaker 2: the fourth quarter, I think saban will still try to score.

1470
01:11:47,080 --> 01:11:50,360
Speaker 2: Florida first half is at ten. Last I looked, that's

1471
01:11:50,400 --> 01:11:53,439
Speaker 2: a huge number, So I like Florida plus ten in

1472
01:11:53,479 --> 01:11:56,400
Speaker 2: the first half. I took Florida plus I would take

1473
01:11:56,400 --> 01:12:00,560
Speaker 2: Florida plus seventeen. I think Alabama team total over five.

1474
01:12:00,720 --> 01:12:02,559
Speaker 2: I think those are all the plays that you should hit.

1475
01:12:04,520 --> 01:12:06,640
Speaker 3: Love it well, have tons of write ups. I mean,

1476
01:12:06,640 --> 01:12:08,800
Speaker 3: we have so much info that's going out on the

1477
01:12:08,840 --> 01:12:11,439
Speaker 3: Action app for all these games, for all of our

1478
01:12:11,600 --> 01:12:15,599
Speaker 3: college football contributors, myself and Colin as well, So make

1479
01:12:15,640 --> 01:12:19,040
Speaker 3: sure you check all that out. I'm excited for this weekend.

1480
01:12:19,080 --> 01:12:22,439
Speaker 3: And yeah, don't forget Florida's elite special teams units. I

1481
01:12:22,479 --> 01:12:25,679
Speaker 3: don't think it'll decide the game, but definitely could decide

1482
01:12:25,720 --> 01:12:30,760
Speaker 3: to cover Spama's special teams not elite Wanta Smith could

1483
01:12:31,160 --> 01:12:34,360
Speaker 3: house one, but Florida's the better special teams. All right,

1484
01:12:34,360 --> 01:12:35,760
Speaker 3: before we get out here, let's go three and.

1485
01:12:35,680 --> 01:12:40,559
Speaker 1: Out, let's make it a quick three and out.

1486
01:12:41,320 --> 01:12:46,040
Speaker 3: All right, first down, let's talk college wall playoff predictions

1487
01:12:46,040 --> 01:12:48,680
Speaker 3: real quick. The question I have for you what is

1488
01:12:48,720 --> 01:12:52,200
Speaker 3: your final predictions? And the my main question is if

1489
01:12:52,560 --> 01:12:56,600
Speaker 3: Notre Dame beats Clemson, and maybe I'm just starting to

1490
01:12:56,600 --> 01:12:59,880
Speaker 3: get a little itch there. If Notre Dame beats Clemson

1491
01:13:00,800 --> 01:13:04,120
Speaker 3: and then Florida luis to Alabama, Ohio State wins, Notre

1492
01:13:04,200 --> 01:13:08,240
Speaker 3: Dame is in, Ohio State is in. Alabama's in and

1493
01:13:08,320 --> 01:13:11,600
Speaker 3: let's say Iowa State beats Oklahoma. Are you taking the

1494
01:13:11,640 --> 01:13:15,840
Speaker 3: two loss Clemson, the two loss Iowa State with a

1495
01:13:15,880 --> 01:13:20,000
Speaker 3: Big twelve title, or Texas A and M. Who is

1496
01:13:20,439 --> 01:13:23,280
Speaker 3: going to be Tennessee this weekend? Does Iowa State jump

1497
01:13:23,320 --> 01:13:25,519
Speaker 3: in there? Do they just say, f everyone, We're taking

1498
01:13:25,560 --> 01:13:28,320
Speaker 3: Clemson again. He will stick by the fast. That's the

1499
01:13:28,320 --> 01:13:30,840
Speaker 3: most fascinating scenario, right if I was State wins and

1500
01:13:31,040 --> 01:13:31,679
Speaker 3: Notre Dame.

1501
01:13:31,560 --> 01:13:35,759
Speaker 2: Wins, playing team chaos on Twitter's fun like people's opinions

1502
01:13:35,800 --> 01:13:39,280
Speaker 2: are hilarious about this. But the committee does not think

1503
01:13:39,360 --> 01:13:40,920
Speaker 2: like the rest of us, and the committee doesn't look

1504
01:13:40,920 --> 01:13:42,639
Speaker 2: at the same numbers that I do. So I will

1505
01:13:42,640 --> 01:13:44,320
Speaker 2: tell you, if I was to put myself in the

1506
01:13:44,320 --> 01:13:46,920
Speaker 2: shoes of the committee, the real question is if Notre

1507
01:13:47,000 --> 01:13:49,840
Speaker 2: Dame upsets Clemson, who gets in in the fourth spot?

1508
01:13:50,160 --> 01:13:51,720
Speaker 2: And I will tell you it's Texas A and M.

1509
01:13:51,840 --> 01:13:54,040
Speaker 2: And the reason why it's Texas A and M is

1510
01:13:54,080 --> 01:13:57,960
Speaker 2: because of one stat the loss column. That's it. They've

1511
01:13:58,000 --> 01:14:00,840
Speaker 2: never put a two loss team in. When Ohio State

1512
01:14:01,160 --> 01:14:04,120
Speaker 2: had two losses and won the Big Ten and they

1513
01:14:04,120 --> 01:14:07,200
Speaker 2: took an eleven and one Alabama at large, it didn't

1514
01:14:07,240 --> 01:14:10,120
Speaker 2: win the SEC. They didn't even play an SEC championship game.

1515
01:14:10,800 --> 01:14:13,120
Speaker 2: The committee set a standard right there that if you

1516
01:14:13,160 --> 01:14:15,120
Speaker 2: have two losses, we don't want you in the playoff.

1517
01:14:15,160 --> 01:14:16,920
Speaker 2: We will take a one loss team, even if it's

1518
01:14:16,920 --> 01:14:19,360
Speaker 2: an at large. That at large team is Texas A

1519
01:14:19,439 --> 01:14:21,920
Speaker 2: and M. Do they deserve to be in there? Absolutely not.

1520
01:14:22,360 --> 01:14:24,280
Speaker 2: And by the way, I think Tennessee could be Texas

1521
01:14:24,280 --> 01:14:27,680
Speaker 2: A and M in the Jefferson pilot spot, but absolutely not.

1522
01:14:27,760 --> 01:14:31,840
Speaker 2: I just check out. Just you know, be careful on

1523
01:14:31,880 --> 01:14:33,479
Speaker 2: the app. You may see a Tennessee bet come over,

1524
01:14:33,479 --> 01:14:35,400
Speaker 2: which I promise I'd never do again. Texas A and

1525
01:14:35,479 --> 01:14:37,519
Speaker 2: M would be the one to get in with one loss.

1526
01:14:38,720 --> 01:14:43,320
Speaker 2: You would have you know that supersedes two loss conference

1527
01:14:43,360 --> 01:14:46,120
Speaker 2: champions that has already been met. Now, if you're asking

1528
01:14:46,160 --> 01:14:49,160
Speaker 2: me for my official prediction, they're gonna see Bama and

1529
01:14:49,200 --> 01:14:51,160
Speaker 2: Notre Dame down New Orleans and the Sugar Bowl, and

1530
01:14:51,160 --> 01:14:53,360
Speaker 2: youre gon see Clemson Ohio State out of the CROs Bowl.

1531
01:14:53,760 --> 01:14:59,559
Speaker 3: All right, second down, name your favorite non championship game bet.

1532
01:15:00,720 --> 01:15:02,680
Speaker 3: I'll just throw out I actually show value in the

1533
01:15:02,800 --> 01:15:05,040
Speaker 3: Army over. I don't know if I'm gonna bet it,

1534
01:15:05,040 --> 01:15:06,960
Speaker 3: but I would not bet at thirty seven and a half.

1535
01:15:07,120 --> 01:15:08,760
Speaker 3: I would only bet at a thirty seven key number

1536
01:15:08,800 --> 01:15:12,400
Speaker 3: for twenty seventeen. I also like Florida State. If you

1537
01:15:12,439 --> 01:15:15,320
Speaker 3: can get seven and Ole miss I make that over

1538
01:15:15,360 --> 01:15:17,920
Speaker 3: three and else use a bunch of injuries. It's your

1539
01:15:17,920 --> 01:15:20,200
Speaker 3: favorite or favorite that you can have a couple if

1540
01:15:20,240 --> 01:15:21,840
Speaker 3: you want no championship game bets.

1541
01:15:22,200 --> 01:15:23,960
Speaker 2: The towns and the trends are going to kill you

1542
01:15:23,960 --> 01:15:26,000
Speaker 2: with this Army over here, this Army Air Force over

1543
01:15:26,040 --> 01:15:27,640
Speaker 2: They're not gonna believe that you said that.

1544
01:15:27,880 --> 01:15:31,080
Speaker 3: So sometimes the market finally, I have ate at thirty

1545
01:15:31,080 --> 01:15:34,040
Speaker 3: five last week, but you don't have a Navy officer here,

1546
01:15:34,200 --> 01:15:36,920
Speaker 3: and the market is just over adjusting at this point,

1547
01:15:37,400 --> 01:15:38,360
Speaker 3: should be around forty.

1548
01:15:38,600 --> 01:15:41,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I am prepared for a twenty twenty one to

1549
01:15:41,040 --> 01:15:42,920
Speaker 2: come around. You and I are podcasting for the Action

1550
01:15:43,040 --> 01:15:45,960
Speaker 2: Network and we're talking about Army Navy overs. I'm already

1551
01:15:45,960 --> 01:15:48,679
Speaker 2: prepared for that. I don't know how Army is an underdog.

1552
01:15:48,920 --> 01:15:52,120
Speaker 2: I don't understand that whatsoever. They dominate both sides of

1553
01:15:52,120 --> 01:15:55,400
Speaker 2: the ball and lineyards, trench numbers that we talk about

1554
01:15:55,439 --> 01:15:59,640
Speaker 2: all the time. Army's better. They don't have hangovers or

1555
01:15:59,680 --> 01:16:02,840
Speaker 2: let down. They're playing at home. This is for the

1556
01:16:02,840 --> 01:16:05,719
Speaker 2: commander in chief. I don't know how Army is an underdog.

1557
01:16:05,800 --> 01:16:07,479
Speaker 2: Not only do I make them a favorite, they dominate

1558
01:16:07,479 --> 01:16:12,479
Speaker 2: in lineyards. So I put a bed in an Army Wisconsin. Listen,

1559
01:16:13,400 --> 01:16:16,280
Speaker 2: how is Wisconsin after everything they've done, a twelve and

1560
01:16:16,320 --> 01:16:18,920
Speaker 2: a half point favorite? And I can see that odds

1561
01:16:19,000 --> 01:16:21,519
Speaker 2: makers are taking an ass load of Minnesota money after

1562
01:16:21,560 --> 01:16:24,160
Speaker 2: that they beat Nebraska, and this Wisconsin line at a

1563
01:16:24,160 --> 01:16:27,160
Speaker 2: dead number in twelve and a half isn't moving Somehow,

1564
01:16:27,280 --> 01:16:29,439
Speaker 2: Graham Mertz in the offense is gonna figure it out.

1565
01:16:29,520 --> 01:16:32,400
Speaker 2: Probably put up a huge spot on Minnesota, and then

1566
01:16:32,479 --> 01:16:36,840
Speaker 2: tell me how. You tell me how Arizona State is

1567
01:16:36,880 --> 01:16:40,479
Speaker 2: like outside the top one twenty and defending rushing success

1568
01:16:40,560 --> 01:16:43,360
Speaker 2: rate and they're gonna stop Jamar Jefferson from running for

1569
01:16:43,400 --> 01:16:48,040
Speaker 2: Oregon State. Oregon State, Yeah, nine to thirty Central time,

1570
01:16:48,520 --> 01:16:51,599
Speaker 2: last game of the night. That is your underdog money

1571
01:16:51,600 --> 01:16:54,400
Speaker 2: line play. Actually, I take that back. I picked somebody

1572
01:16:54,400 --> 01:16:56,680
Speaker 2: else for our underdog money line. But I'm telling you

1573
01:16:56,720 --> 01:16:58,960
Speaker 2: Oregon State's gonna win that game. They have no answer

1574
01:16:59,000 --> 01:17:02,360
Speaker 2: for Jamar Jefferson as far as Arizona State's defense is concerned.

1575
01:17:02,640 --> 01:17:06,320
Speaker 3: Well, that's a good segue into our third.

1576
01:17:06,080 --> 01:17:13,920
Speaker 8: Down turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for

1577
01:17:14,040 --> 01:17:17,200
Speaker 8: the money line parlay before.

1578
01:17:16,920 --> 01:17:18,439
Speaker 3: We get out of here and stalk our underdog. Money

1579
01:17:18,439 --> 01:17:21,200
Speaker 3: line parlays, No New Mexico for you. Great hit last week,

1580
01:17:21,800 --> 01:17:24,519
Speaker 3: I uh, I'm gonna change it up here. I was

1581
01:17:24,520 --> 01:17:27,800
Speaker 3: gonna go Florida State this fraud wake team. Let's get

1582
01:17:27,840 --> 01:17:30,160
Speaker 3: a little crazy. Team cast is twenty twenty. Let's go

1583
01:17:30,280 --> 01:17:33,040
Speaker 3: fighting Irish. Play the theme song Notre Dame.

1584
01:17:33,920 --> 01:17:40,519
Speaker 8: Oh Johnny, the pipes, the pipes.

1585
01:17:40,080 --> 01:17:42,280
Speaker 6: Are calling.

1586
01:17:43,080 --> 01:17:49,840
Speaker 2: From Glen to Glenn, down the mountains. I love it.

1587
01:17:50,040 --> 01:17:51,040
Speaker 3: I got a feeling.

1588
01:17:51,720 --> 01:17:54,719
Speaker 2: And how bad are we fading? Trevor Lawrence, Well, Trevor

1589
01:17:54,760 --> 01:17:57,160
Speaker 2: Lawrence won't play, but how bad are we fading? Clemson

1590
01:17:57,200 --> 01:18:01,800
Speaker 2: and a non New Year six mole? Oh boy, Yeah,

1591
01:18:02,080 --> 01:18:04,519
Speaker 2: I like that a lot. You were taking the double

1592
01:18:04,520 --> 01:18:06,320
Speaker 2: digit dog. I did that last week. So this week

1593
01:18:06,360 --> 01:18:08,160
Speaker 2: I'll go a little bit shorter. I'm gonna stick with

1594
01:18:08,160 --> 01:18:11,160
Speaker 2: what I said earlier. Oregon is going to beat usc outright.

1595
01:18:12,160 --> 01:18:14,240
Speaker 2: But if you're looking for a juice here round Robin,

1596
01:18:14,240 --> 01:18:16,280
Speaker 2: I don't mind throwing Oregon State in there. But yeah,

1597
01:18:16,360 --> 01:18:19,599
Speaker 2: Oregon ducks for me. PAC twelve champions with a four

1598
01:18:19,640 --> 01:18:21,479
Speaker 2: and two record unreal.

1599
01:18:21,880 --> 01:18:23,880
Speaker 3: All right, we'll have that written up on Action Network

1600
01:18:23,880 --> 01:18:27,439
Speaker 3: dot com, the Action Network at Appreciate everyone getting through

1601
01:18:27,439 --> 01:18:31,000
Speaker 3: the regular season with US Conflience Championships. Now Bold season

1602
01:18:31,240 --> 01:18:34,680
Speaker 3: is upon us, then the playoffs. We have tons of

1603
01:18:34,720 --> 01:18:37,479
Speaker 3: episodes coming, starting with one that will be out Monday morning.

1604
01:18:37,840 --> 01:18:41,439
Speaker 3: We'll talk about the first wave of Bowl games. Make

1605
01:18:41,439 --> 01:18:44,479
Speaker 3: sure you subscribe, unsubscribe, subscribe again, Tell a friend, tell

1606
01:18:44,479 --> 01:18:47,599
Speaker 3: on enemy, leave a review. We have tons of giveaways

1607
01:18:47,720 --> 01:18:50,400
Speaker 3: coming this week for the Bowl preview episodes. Appreciate you

1608
01:18:50,439 --> 01:18:52,759
Speaker 3: all listening. Let's have another big weekend after last weekend.

1609
01:18:53,600 --> 01:18:56,040
Speaker 3: We'll catch you all on Twitter and Monday morning.

1610
01:18:56,240 --> 01:18:57,439
Speaker 2: Cheers, peace out.

1611
01:19:16,360 --> 01:19:17,400
Speaker 3: We're finished talking.