WEBVTT - Beating The Book: Ed Miller & Matthew Davidow 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:11.760 Check it down, man, now down Now. It's the Beating 0:00:11.800 --> 0:00:15.240 the Book Podcast. Still alisand I hope you're doing well 0:00:16.079 --> 0:00:19.560 during these strange times. It's time for another installment of 0:00:19.560 --> 0:00:22.280 our betting profile series during this global pandemic. I hope 0:00:22.320 --> 0:00:25.480 you've been enjoying them. Lots of folks, lots of interesting 0:00:25.520 --> 0:00:29.000 folks throughout the sports betting industry kind enough to spend 0:00:29.040 --> 0:00:32.000 time with us to lend their insights. Today there's a 0:00:32.040 --> 0:00:35.159 couple of guys, Ed Miller and Matthew David Dow. They 0:00:35.159 --> 0:00:39.600 started out as poker players, not originally in their lives, 0:00:39.680 --> 0:00:42.360 but that's how they first met each other, then later 0:00:42.400 --> 0:00:46.559 reconnected playing DFS baseball, wrote a book together. We'll talk 0:00:46.600 --> 0:00:49.279 about that, the logic of sports betting, and now we're 0:00:49.320 --> 0:00:52.880 doing big things with their company, deck Prism Sports. Ed Miller, 0:00:53.000 --> 0:00:58.960 Matthew David Dow. It's the Beating the Book Podcast. Enjoy 0:01:00.960 --> 0:01:06.920 It's a numbers game with your host kil Alexander. Believe 0:01:07.880 --> 0:01:09.400 it is a numbers game right here at VISA, the 0:01:09.480 --> 0:01:13.360 Vegas Stats and Information Network, these sports betting Network. Gil Alexander, 0:01:13.440 --> 0:01:17.000 thanks for joining us this morning. Um on the shows. 0:01:17.000 --> 0:01:19.920 How we always start this a continuation of what has 0:01:19.959 --> 0:01:24.560 been a series during this pandemic of profiles of folks 0:01:24.600 --> 0:01:26.760 in the betting industry, not just professional betters, but those 0:01:26.760 --> 0:01:29.200 who have all kinds of different angles in the sports 0:01:29.200 --> 0:01:32.560 betting industry. And we've been blessed here to have so 0:01:32.680 --> 0:01:35.720 many uh spend their time with us during these last 0:01:35.720 --> 0:01:41.360 three or four months. Alan Boston, Rufus Peabody, Uh, Spanky 0:01:41.600 --> 0:01:46.440 Ray Marino from bookmaker Dr Bob, Alan Dankinson, on and on, 0:01:46.520 --> 0:01:49.120 Joe Peter. I'm leaving some folks out, so I don't 0:01:49.160 --> 0:01:51.640 mean to uh to upset whoever I forgot, but it's 0:01:51.680 --> 0:01:54.720 been it's been a bunch. And when I came back 0:01:54.720 --> 0:01:57.400 here from vacation, I thought to myself, I gotta get 0:01:57.440 --> 0:02:00.760 these two gentlemen back on the show because they are 0:02:00.840 --> 0:02:03.160 doing so many different things that it would I'd be 0:02:03.240 --> 0:02:05.240 remissed and not including in this series. They're kind enough 0:02:05.240 --> 0:02:07.360 to join me in studio again. They're the authors of 0:02:07.400 --> 0:02:11.200 the logic of sports betting, but long time affiliation with 0:02:11.240 --> 0:02:14.480 all things betty betting. Rather, it's Ed Miller and Matthew 0:02:14.560 --> 0:02:17.239 David Dow once again or David Ow, excuse me, back 0:02:17.280 --> 0:02:18.919 on the show. How you guys doing, man, I appreciate 0:02:18.919 --> 0:02:23.200 you spend the time. Yeah, thank you for having us back. Um, 0:02:23.400 --> 0:02:25.320 Let's I listened back. I was telling you all fair. 0:02:25.320 --> 0:02:28.680 I listened back to our time together about a year 0:02:28.720 --> 0:02:30.519 ago when the book first came out. So I want 0:02:30.520 --> 0:02:33.520 to try to as as much as possible not repeat 0:02:33.520 --> 0:02:36.720 what we talked about then, but with everybody during this 0:02:37.160 --> 0:02:39.600 series that I've done, I always want to start at 0:02:39.600 --> 0:02:41.760 the beginning and that sort of James Lipton inside the 0:02:41.760 --> 0:02:43.919 actor's studio kind of way. We didn't talk about this 0:02:44.040 --> 0:02:46.320 last time. How did you both grow up? Let's start 0:02:46.320 --> 0:02:48.480 with you, Ed. Where did you grow up? What was 0:02:48.520 --> 0:02:52.000 your first experience with anything betting where it's sort of 0:02:52.120 --> 0:02:55.160 little bulb for you. So I'm on for New Orleans. 0:02:55.280 --> 0:02:57.040 I grew up in New Orleans. I went to high 0:02:57.040 --> 0:03:00.080 school there and then um went off for college. And 0:03:01.440 --> 0:03:04.920 my first interest in gambling was in black jack. They 0:03:05.360 --> 0:03:07.280 you know, I read one of those early books about 0:03:07.320 --> 0:03:09.880 the you know, card counting in black jack, and I 0:03:09.880 --> 0:03:14.000 don't know, in the nineties and uh and in college 0:03:14.080 --> 0:03:16.920 kind of it it always you know, I don't know, 0:03:16.960 --> 0:03:19.240 it's something about it stuck with me, and I like 0:03:19.520 --> 0:03:21.040 had this idea that I was going to move to 0:03:21.080 --> 0:03:24.280 Vegas be a black jack player, and that didn't happen. 0:03:24.320 --> 0:03:28.880 I went to Microsoft and was a software edineer. But 0:03:29.200 --> 0:03:31.480 that's that's when I started gambling. Was um, that was 0:03:31.480 --> 0:03:34.400 when online poker was really getting going. So online poker 0:03:34.480 --> 0:03:39.120 was my first real time gambling, you know, pre bringing 0:03:39.120 --> 0:03:40.840 it down the house a different black jack book we're 0:03:40.840 --> 0:03:42.480 talking about. It was Yeah, it was before it was 0:03:42.600 --> 0:03:44.840 you know, like yeah, before that book had been written. 0:03:44.880 --> 0:03:47.360 It was you know, like like the nerdy ones where 0:03:47.360 --> 0:03:49.400 they you know, teach it the system and how to 0:03:49.440 --> 0:03:51.240 do this, and you know that I read a couple 0:03:51.280 --> 0:03:54.440 of those and you know, we're your Did your parents 0:03:54.520 --> 0:03:58.240 have any any none basis? So no, they were horrified 0:03:58.280 --> 0:04:00.720 by the whole they were well my mom, yeah she 0:04:01.200 --> 0:04:03.960 was not. She still horrified. Well she she she so 0:04:04.000 --> 0:04:07.560 she's an English professor and she, um was horrified until 0:04:07.600 --> 0:04:09.760 I wrote my first book and then she was okay 0:04:09.760 --> 0:04:12.040 with it. You said, I listened back to our first 0:04:12.760 --> 0:04:17.440 You wrote nine books on poker. Yeah, not nine, this 0:04:17.600 --> 0:04:21.200 tremendous output. So okay, but did you know so when 0:04:21.240 --> 0:04:23.320 you read that book, did it hit you in a 0:04:23.480 --> 0:04:25.720 way that nothing else had, Like, did you know at 0:04:25.760 --> 0:04:28.200 that moment, even if you did go to Microsoft first, 0:04:28.400 --> 0:04:31.000 like somehow I'm going to end up doing something related 0:04:31.040 --> 0:04:33.400 to that. I didn't know professionally, like at all. I 0:04:33.400 --> 0:04:35.800 I definitely didn't have any I didn't have any concept 0:04:35.839 --> 0:04:38.120 that this was going to be my career until like 0:04:38.200 --> 0:04:43.359 I was several years into it, really like this will stick. Yeah, 0:04:43.720 --> 0:04:47.120 it's it's um Yeah, I mean I was you know, 0:04:47.160 --> 0:04:49.200 I always like playing games. I like playing games from 0:04:49.200 --> 0:04:52.560 when I was you know, a little kid, just consistent interest. 0:04:52.640 --> 0:04:54.480 And to me it was like, how you know this 0:04:54.560 --> 0:04:58.279 is a way you can make money playing games. That's cool, Matthew. 0:04:58.279 --> 0:04:59.800 How about she? Where'd you girl? So? I grew up 0:04:59.839 --> 0:05:03.320 in suburban Pittsburgh and uh, we don't hear that in 0:05:03.320 --> 0:05:07.440 this business at all. No, no, never, I haven't anyone 0:05:07.480 --> 0:05:12.960 from Pittsburgh so far. Uh. But yeah, my experience growing 0:05:13.040 --> 0:05:16.760 up was definitely different. And yeah, I I always wanted 0:05:16.760 --> 0:05:19.640 to gamble. I grew up. I remember sitting in like 0:05:20.120 --> 0:05:22.280 math class or something junior high and I figured out 0:05:22.320 --> 0:05:25.120 that if I could just win two out of every 0:05:25.200 --> 0:05:28.680 three of my sports picks, why I would have quite 0:05:28.720 --> 0:05:33.880 a bit of money in no time. Yeah, and I 0:05:34.040 --> 0:05:35.599 was the kid in high school that you know. We 0:05:35.640 --> 0:05:38.560 played poker with our friends. I hang out some of 0:05:38.560 --> 0:05:40.080 the pool hall play some We used to play a 0:05:40.080 --> 0:05:43.239 game called guts two cards, Guts, everyone gets two cards. 0:05:43.279 --> 0:05:47.159 Just sit around like the the like the table at 0:05:47.160 --> 0:05:49.680 the pool hall. One by one you say guts or 0:05:49.680 --> 0:05:51.640 no guts, and it's just the best two car poker hand. 0:05:52.160 --> 0:05:54.360 But then if nobody says gus, he gets to the 0:05:54.440 --> 0:05:56.719 last player. If everyone folds, and the last player takes 0:05:56.720 --> 0:06:00.880 the pot. So it's just a complete bluffing game, you know, 0:06:01.040 --> 0:06:04.160 figuring out the correct you know, from a game theory 0:06:04.200 --> 0:06:06.839 standpoint of how much the bluff it was. You know, 0:06:06.960 --> 0:06:08.760 it was worth a lot in that game. Ed Miller, 0:06:08.880 --> 0:06:11.880 Matthew David Dale, authors of the Logic of Sports Betting, 0:06:11.960 --> 0:06:15.000 and the co founders of of a business that we'll 0:06:15.040 --> 0:06:18.120 get to here during the hour that really takes up 0:06:18.160 --> 0:06:22.359 all their time these days. Um, so you came to 0:06:22.520 --> 0:06:26.039 Vegas as well? You were both in Vegas. You knew 0:06:26.040 --> 0:06:29.960 each other from playing poker? Correct? Yeah? We I think 0:06:30.040 --> 0:06:34.359 we met in the blast game a long time ago. 0:06:35.880 --> 0:06:37.560 Do you remember if you liked each other? Do you 0:06:37.560 --> 0:06:39.640 remember if you were like, oh, that guy kind of thing. 0:06:39.680 --> 0:06:42.240 Well Ed was already very famous on two plus two 0:06:42.279 --> 0:06:44.160 and stuff at that time, so you know he was, 0:06:44.680 --> 0:06:49.159 you know, me as what, twenty four years old, and 0:06:49.400 --> 0:06:52.160 just moved the base, you know, go the blage you 0:06:52.320 --> 0:06:54.680 every day to play poker, you know, which was a 0:06:54.720 --> 0:06:56.600 big step up from the games I had played, and 0:06:56.720 --> 0:06:59.480 you know, other casinos elsewhere, you know, to meet somebody 0:06:59.520 --> 0:07:01.239 like Ed, who, like I said, already at the time, 0:07:01.360 --> 0:07:06.279 was you know, pre eminent poker authority, Ed Miller was. 0:07:07.120 --> 0:07:11.480 What it was was something so you drift or you 0:07:11.560 --> 0:07:13.440 do your own thing for a few years, three or 0:07:13.440 --> 0:07:16.440 four years, the both of you, and then unbeknowns to 0:07:16.480 --> 0:07:19.240 the both of you, you both sort of gravitate towards 0:07:19.440 --> 0:07:22.440 daily fantasy. Wasn't Yeah, that's yeah, that was what it was, 0:07:22.760 --> 0:07:26.080 and you and and it was baseball specifically, wasn't. I 0:07:26.080 --> 0:07:28.960 mean yeah, I think so yeah. And how did that? 0:07:29.040 --> 0:07:30.520 So how did that connection where you're like, oh, you 0:07:30.520 --> 0:07:32.760 do this, you know, and when did you? I guess, well, 0:07:33.120 --> 0:07:35.440 take it from your perspective, and when did you think 0:07:35.480 --> 0:07:39.440 to yourself, Oh, um, good dude, how funny it is 0:07:39.440 --> 0:07:41.440 that we ended up doing this at the same time. 0:07:41.800 --> 0:07:44.720 We both obviously have some sort of advantage play blood 0:07:44.720 --> 0:07:49.120 in US two, I could work with this guy. I mean, 0:07:49.240 --> 0:07:51.720 it was pretty fast. We we got connected on a 0:07:51.960 --> 0:07:57.080 we we both got independently consulted on a fantasy sports company. Um, 0:07:57.080 --> 0:07:59.080 that was kind of how we got connected. And I 0:07:59.160 --> 0:08:03.080 kind of showed him I'd build a whole little system 0:08:03.160 --> 0:08:05.600 to builde my lineups for me and everything. And so 0:08:05.640 --> 0:08:07.800 I showed him that and one of those, right, one 0:08:07.800 --> 0:08:10.840 of those, and uh, you know, and and basically we 0:08:10.920 --> 0:08:14.320 figured out that we were really had independently come to 0:08:14.360 --> 0:08:17.600 a very similar approach on how to win at the game. 0:08:18.280 --> 0:08:20.600 And I don't know, I think that was it was 0:08:20.640 --> 0:08:23.080 pretty fast in those in those days. I mean, you 0:08:23.080 --> 0:08:25.240 guys sound like you know, we have Richard Munchkin Allot 0:08:25.280 --> 0:08:27.280 on the on the network. He's the ultimate sort of 0:08:27.280 --> 0:08:29.240 advantage player. If there's an advantage to be had, he 0:08:29.280 --> 0:08:32.840 gravitates towards it. There's so many of you know, great 0:08:33.240 --> 0:08:35.640 absolutely great guy, and there's so many people who not 0:08:35.720 --> 0:08:38.160 so many, but there's a there's a group of folks 0:08:38.200 --> 0:08:40.400 that we all are aware of that that's how they 0:08:40.400 --> 0:08:42.840 conduct their lives. Would you have considered either of you 0:08:43.240 --> 0:08:45.840 that type of person was that in your DNA, Like, 0:08:45.840 --> 0:08:49.240 if there was advantage play checkers across the room, would 0:08:49.280 --> 0:08:51.920 you have found that game and tried to exploit that 0:08:52.000 --> 0:08:55.400 for however long you could. I mean me more so 0:08:55.600 --> 0:09:00.160 than ed. But at the same time, I, you know, 0:09:00.200 --> 0:09:04.439 I I I do not have a actual background advantage play. 0:09:04.520 --> 0:09:07.880 While I know in respect, hugely respect a lot of 0:09:07.880 --> 0:09:10.560 the people in that in in that field, there's just 0:09:10.640 --> 0:09:15.000 some of the sharpest minds. I was always aiming on 0:09:15.080 --> 0:09:18.280 a larger scale for you know, lack of a better term, 0:09:18.440 --> 0:09:22.199 you know, trying to trying to do you know, particularly sports, 0:09:22.280 --> 0:09:24.960 you know, working on our models are our pre game 0:09:24.960 --> 0:09:26.800 and then we started working in game models about what 0:09:26.960 --> 0:09:31.439 it's almost been seven years now, it's been and I've 0:09:31.440 --> 0:09:35.000 always been much more focused on more of the larger 0:09:35.120 --> 0:09:37.800 picture gambling than Okay, how do I show up with 0:09:37.800 --> 0:09:40.960 this casinon't beat this blackjack game? Okay, So the logic 0:09:41.000 --> 0:09:43.160 of sports betting is why we had you on the 0:09:43.200 --> 0:09:44.600 first time. We could have had you on for any 0:09:44.679 --> 0:09:46.960 number of reasons. I had followed in for for for years, 0:09:47.000 --> 0:09:49.360 perhaps unbeknownst him, but the logic of sports betting, which 0:09:49.360 --> 0:09:51.160 we're looking here at Visa dot Com, the Visa app, 0:09:51.240 --> 0:09:54.640 food post ling game plus uh this was and again, 0:09:54.800 --> 0:09:58.160 I you know, in preparation for this today, I listened 0:09:58.160 --> 0:10:00.800 back to the thirty or forty minutes we talked last time, 0:10:01.080 --> 0:10:03.160 and I was thinking to myself. I was like, I 0:10:03.160 --> 0:10:06.880 didn't do it justice because I kept harping on, you know, 0:10:06.960 --> 0:10:09.960 this is and I still believe this. To me, this 0:10:10.040 --> 0:10:15.120 is the best sports betting book I've ever read, and 0:10:15.640 --> 0:10:18.319 that remains. But the way I couched it last time 0:10:18.480 --> 0:10:21.960 was everybody who's starting out in sports betting should absolutely 0:10:22.040 --> 0:10:24.000 start by reading this book, do it the right way. 0:10:24.160 --> 0:10:27.240 That remains. But what I didn't say is that this 0:10:27.360 --> 0:10:30.080 is also a book not just for beginners, for people 0:10:30.120 --> 0:10:32.640 who have bet sports for five years, for ten years, 0:10:32.640 --> 0:10:36.400 for twenty years, it's just as valuable. I mean, maybe 0:10:36.400 --> 0:10:38.480 if you're starting it's it's the most valuable, for sure. 0:10:38.760 --> 0:10:41.040 But I think there were things that and we were 0:10:41.040 --> 0:10:43.120 talking about this before the show, there were things that 0:10:43.160 --> 0:10:45.280 I read in there. And I'm by no means and 0:10:45.520 --> 0:10:47.680 you know, the guy who's been at this for thirty 0:10:47.720 --> 0:10:50.320 forty years, but there were certainly things in there that 0:10:50.400 --> 0:10:54.200 I read where I'm like, you know, maybe I knew 0:10:54.240 --> 0:10:59.439 this in my head intuitively, but I didn't really think 0:10:59.480 --> 0:11:01.679 of it this way kind of thing. And there were 0:11:01.679 --> 0:11:04.679 things that you're just reminded of. I just the brilliance 0:11:04.679 --> 0:11:07.400 of the book to me is when I was being 0:11:07.400 --> 0:11:09.720 reared on sports betting, there were lots of books out there, 0:11:09.720 --> 0:11:12.920 and they would have their moments that would hit me. Um, 0:11:12.960 --> 0:11:15.280 but most of it was too wonky for my younger 0:11:15.360 --> 0:11:18.839 brain to really latch onto and to really be excited about. 0:11:19.360 --> 0:11:21.720 This is a book that anybody. I could send this 0:11:21.800 --> 0:11:23.840 to my mother, bother you bring up your mother, my 0:11:23.920 --> 0:11:26.040 mother who says one of my sons is a doctor 0:11:26.080 --> 0:11:29.200 or the other. I'm not really sure, right, So I 0:11:29.240 --> 0:11:31.760 think give this to her, and I promise you she 0:11:31.760 --> 0:11:33.920 would give it a go and she would get something 0:11:33.960 --> 0:11:37.959 out of this. That's how well written this was, in 0:11:38.040 --> 0:11:40.400 my opinion, and I'm sure this was part of your 0:11:40.480 --> 0:11:43.160 whole thinking of we gotta make this relatable and to 0:11:43.240 --> 0:11:45.240 that extent you were just brilliant and how you guys 0:11:45.240 --> 0:11:50.000 did it well. Thank you appreciate that, Yeah, I I 0:11:50.040 --> 0:11:53.360 think you know. UM, I mean, just thank you for 0:11:53.400 --> 0:11:56.160 all the nice things you said about the book. Obviously, UM. 0:11:56.400 --> 0:12:01.280 The thing that I would say. I mean, there's I 0:12:01.280 --> 0:12:04.640 think in play betting is new for everybody, you know, 0:12:04.800 --> 0:12:07.880 and and some people I've I've you know, I've some 0:12:07.920 --> 0:12:09.640 people have said to me, well, that was a great book. 0:12:09.679 --> 0:12:12.120 It's a good beginner book. And I was like, you know, 0:12:12.800 --> 0:12:15.400 you didn't know the stuff about the InPlay betting, like 0:12:15.840 --> 0:12:18.240 you know, I think that you know, And so somebody 0:12:18.240 --> 0:12:22.440 who claims that they knew everything probably not being right. Yeah, exactly, 0:12:22.440 --> 0:12:24.839 That's that's kind of how I feel. Yeah, yeah, I'm 0:12:24.880 --> 0:12:27.280 sorry to have interrupt. I mean, that's I mean, just 0:12:27.280 --> 0:12:28.600 just a sort of by the way, I have two 0:12:28.600 --> 0:12:31.360 copies here of Logic Sports Betting, signed by the authors Nick. 0:12:31.400 --> 0:12:32.840 How do we give this away? Do we take caller 0:12:32.880 --> 0:12:34.719 one or six? At one of six? Came l Jams, like, 0:12:34.720 --> 0:12:37.079 how do we do this? We can we figure out 0:12:37.120 --> 0:12:39.000 a way to do it on Twitter or something? What's 0:12:39.000 --> 0:12:41.079 that Twitter contest? Maybe yeah, let's do with Twitter. We'll 0:12:41.080 --> 0:12:42.439 think about it on the break. We'll give away to 0:12:42.559 --> 0:12:44.840 two copies of this. But there was I'm thinking a 0:12:44.920 --> 0:12:47.240 year after I read it, I'm thinking, what do I like? 0:12:47.280 --> 0:12:49.760 What's the headline of what I remember? And I keep 0:12:49.800 --> 0:12:52.760 coming back to there's I remember price Discovery. We took 0:12:52.920 --> 0:12:55.720 price Discovery. We talked about that a lot. But and 0:12:55.720 --> 0:12:58.199 then there was angles versus trends I remember being a 0:12:58.240 --> 0:13:00.760 sort of interesting thing. But the thing I talked about 0:13:00.760 --> 0:13:04.280 with you last time, which which more than anything, sticks 0:13:04.320 --> 0:13:08.280 in my in my brain, uh, the approach of using 0:13:08.720 --> 0:13:14.520 multiple outs to get a zero synthetic hold. I talk 0:13:14.600 --> 0:13:17.240 about on this show. All the time people who talk 0:13:17.280 --> 0:13:19.880 about sports betting talk about all the time, the best time, 0:13:20.160 --> 0:13:23.120 all the all the time, about shopping for the best prices. Right, 0:13:23.200 --> 0:13:25.880 but you guys couched it in this other way where 0:13:25.880 --> 0:13:29.520 I'm like, why hasn't anybody else done? Could you explain 0:13:29.600 --> 0:13:31.320 what I what I meant by that sentence right there 0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:35.920 about zero synthetic holdre so um so. So in general, 0:13:35.960 --> 0:13:37.920 you know, people obviously talk about shopping for the best 0:13:37.960 --> 0:13:39.920 price all the time, and I think a lot of 0:13:39.960 --> 0:13:42.440 the time they come at it with, well, I have 0:13:42.480 --> 0:13:43.840 a bet I want to make. I want to bet 0:13:43.840 --> 0:13:47.000 on the Packers, And so now my job is to 0:13:47.120 --> 0:13:49.959 like look at the odds site, the comparative site, or 0:13:50.000 --> 0:13:51.720 you know, just check a bunch of sports books and 0:13:51.720 --> 0:13:54.000 see who has the best price on the Packers. Right. 0:13:54.520 --> 0:13:56.720 And and in the book we kind of you know, 0:13:57.160 --> 0:14:01.439 we say, well look at odds, shop in a different way. Right, 0:14:01.480 --> 0:14:04.360 instead of having in your mind this is the bet 0:14:04.400 --> 0:14:07.079 I want to make. Let's find the best price. Look 0:14:07.200 --> 0:14:12.960 for the markets where there are opportunities. Right, So instead 0:14:12.960 --> 0:14:15.440 of having in preconceived oh, I want to make this 0:14:15.520 --> 0:14:18.760 better that bet, say what markets are out there where 0:14:19.080 --> 0:14:21.320 there's an opportunity for me? And what's an opportunity it's 0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:24.800 when there's no viig in the market. So a sports book, 0:14:25.080 --> 0:14:27.120 you know, they charge minus one town on either side, 0:14:27.200 --> 0:14:29.480 or maybe it's baseball and it's you know, minus one 0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:32.120 forty plus one twenty. You know, that's the big. That's 0:14:32.120 --> 0:14:34.360 why you know you lose if you flip a coin, 0:14:34.480 --> 0:14:37.600 because you know you're gonna win. You're gonna you know, 0:14:37.640 --> 0:14:40.120 lose more than you win on average. Right. But if 0:14:40.120 --> 0:14:43.120 you could get that big down to zero, then you 0:14:43.160 --> 0:14:45.600 don't lose anymore. You can flip coins all day long, 0:14:45.960 --> 0:14:49.560 you're not gonna lose. So while anyone sports book is 0:14:49.600 --> 0:14:52.400 never gonna show you minus one plus one forty, you 0:14:52.440 --> 0:14:55.840 can find that between two different sports books. Potentially, like 0:14:55.920 --> 0:14:58.320 on a baseball game, you could find one minus one 0:14:58.360 --> 0:15:00.880 forty year and then plus and forty there, and now 0:15:00.880 --> 0:15:03.880 all of a sudden there's no vig And you do that, 0:15:04.240 --> 0:15:06.560 you could pick whichever team you want, you know, and 0:15:06.600 --> 0:15:08.800 you're you have a lot better shot at at winning. 0:15:09.200 --> 0:15:11.440 And this is why I like with states serving up 0:15:11.480 --> 0:15:13.640 and I mean some of the states with better regulations 0:15:13.680 --> 0:15:17.680 now as well, you know, Colorado being one of them. Uh. 0:15:18.040 --> 0:15:19.960 How you can actually take this and apply it is 0:15:20.400 --> 0:15:22.440 sign up at the sports books, take advantage of the 0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:26.120 bonus offers. You know, look for an odd screen that 0:15:26.200 --> 0:15:28.920 displays the the odds and in real time amongst the 0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:32.480 different accounts that you have. Look for markets. I mean, 0:15:32.480 --> 0:15:35.360 if you want to bet sports and never lose, A 0:15:35.440 --> 0:15:38.560 simple way to do that is the only bet markets 0:15:38.560 --> 0:15:40.720 where you can look across the screen of your actual 0:15:40.720 --> 0:15:43.680 outs and in as an example, you know, get minus 0:15:43.680 --> 0:15:46.320 one forty on side A plus one forty on side B. 0:15:46.600 --> 0:15:49.440 If every single sports book that you have has minus 0:15:49.440 --> 0:15:52.360 one forty plus one twenty one, probably gonna lose about 0:15:52.360 --> 0:15:55.200 that three point seven percent. If, on the other hand, 0:15:55.480 --> 0:15:59.000 you've got what is their seventeen sports books in Colorado, 0:15:59.040 --> 0:16:05.200 I think that there's a lot open one and there's said, 0:16:05.240 --> 0:16:07.200 I mean, that's crazy, and a lot of these places 0:16:07.240 --> 0:16:08.800 are going to be trying to take bet. They're gonna 0:16:08.800 --> 0:16:11.320 be trying to compete on price, you know. I I 0:16:11.360 --> 0:16:13.160 think there's a few places in Colorado there aimy to 0:16:13.160 --> 0:16:16.760 completely compete on price. And you pute a few of 0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:18.960 them on a screen or you know, on your apps, 0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:21.800 and find the market where you can get the same price. 0:16:21.800 --> 0:16:24.320 Basically on either side. You can bet forever without losing 0:16:24.320 --> 0:16:26.680 a dollar. You don't have to know anything that that 0:16:27.000 --> 0:16:31.400 nugget alone, Just that point about about synthetic zero hold 0:16:31.920 --> 0:16:35.160 is is just I think it's not gonna make you 0:16:35.200 --> 0:16:37.600 the greatest sports better in the world overnight, but it's 0:16:37.600 --> 0:16:41.680 certainly gonna make you an exponentially better sports better. It's 0:16:41.720 --> 0:16:45.080 going to just improve from the if you're first starting 0:16:45.080 --> 0:16:47.280 out reading the book, it's just gonna start you at 0:16:47.320 --> 0:16:49.080 a at a higher level than you would have otherwise. 0:16:49.200 --> 0:16:51.240 And if you're a current better like this is this is, 0:16:51.600 --> 0:16:54.440 you know, just such a key point. It's in the 0:16:54.480 --> 0:16:57.160 weeds for for some I hope people grab that. We'll 0:16:57.160 --> 0:16:59.480 talk about what they're doing now. Deck Prison Sports coming up, 0:16:59.560 --> 0:17:01.360 Ed Miller, Matthew David down right here, on a numbers 0:17:01.400 --> 0:17:03.920 game and Visa these Sports Betting Network. Welcome back to 0:17:04.119 --> 0:17:07.760 a numbers game with Jill Alexander. It is a numbers 0:17:07.760 --> 0:17:09.679 game right here at Visa the Sports Betting Network. The 0:17:09.800 --> 0:17:12.560 Logic of Sports Betting is the book written by my 0:17:12.640 --> 0:17:15.280 guest today, Ed Miller, Matthew David Dow kind enough to 0:17:15.600 --> 0:17:19.560 join me once again. Um, before we get to what 0:17:19.760 --> 0:17:22.719 you are doing today, there is something else, by the way, 0:17:22.720 --> 0:17:24.639 and by the way, Nick Kenyon. Right now Producers is 0:17:24.720 --> 0:17:26.800 coming up with a Twitter contest to who can win 0:17:26.840 --> 0:17:31.000 these two copies of the book, signed copies from Ed 0:17:31.119 --> 0:17:33.280 and and Matthew. And we were just talking all fair 0:17:33.320 --> 0:17:38.080 about how I hope that I hope that the folks 0:17:38.200 --> 0:17:40.320 that there's a large percentage of folks who will just 0:17:40.359 --> 0:17:42.160 listen to your explanation about what we were just talking 0:17:42.160 --> 0:17:45.320 about was zero whole percentage synthetic zero hold and and 0:17:45.400 --> 0:17:47.960 thought to themselves, Oh, I now I get it. I 0:17:48.000 --> 0:17:50.240 need to sort of read this. Ultimately, we know there's 0:17:50.240 --> 0:17:51.880 going to be some percentage that will be like, yeah, 0:17:51.880 --> 0:17:53.359 I just want to I just want Aaron Rodgers to 0:17:53.400 --> 0:17:56.560 beat the Cowboys. But to the extent we can sort 0:17:56.600 --> 0:17:58.600 of drive this home that there's so many nuggets in 0:17:58.640 --> 0:18:00.639 this book that that will just help up you beyond 0:18:00.680 --> 0:18:05.000 belief in this racket before we get to the endeavor today. 0:18:05.200 --> 0:18:07.239 And I bring you up from time to time on 0:18:07.280 --> 0:18:10.120 this show. You're probably unaware of this, but more than 0:18:10.160 --> 0:18:15.240 a few times when the subject of and i'll give 0:18:15.280 --> 0:18:17.680 the specific book, it's usually when it comes to William Hill, 0:18:18.640 --> 0:18:21.040 you and I are sort of aligned on a certain 0:18:21.080 --> 0:18:24.920 thing here. It's a it's worn as sort of a 0:18:24.960 --> 0:18:27.199 badge of honor on people's sleeves. If I could just 0:18:27.480 --> 0:18:31.320 mix metaphors here that when when they get banned from 0:18:31.320 --> 0:18:34.520 a book like William Hill, and I always have thought 0:18:34.600 --> 0:18:38.280 to myself, I'm like, that's not what I'm if I 0:18:38.359 --> 0:18:41.280 live here in Nevada, that's not what I'm striving for. 0:18:41.560 --> 0:18:44.000 I don't bet there often. I bet they're probably a 0:18:44.040 --> 0:18:46.200 handful of times a year. But every once in a 0:18:46.240 --> 0:18:47.720 while things will come up. It just happens to be 0:18:47.760 --> 0:18:51.440 William Hill that I'm talking about here, because they're specific 0:18:51.520 --> 0:18:53.560 in this case, But every once in a while there'll 0:18:53.600 --> 0:18:55.439 be lines there that I want to rush over in 0:18:55.560 --> 0:18:58.320 bet won't happen every month, won't happen every few months, 0:18:58.359 --> 0:19:00.359 but sometimes it happens, and I just want to have 0:19:00.440 --> 0:19:03.840 the ability to have that out. You, I believe, have 0:19:03.920 --> 0:19:07.320 a very similar viewpoint on that. You're not trying to 0:19:07.359 --> 0:19:11.600 get banned. You get the business model and therefore behave accordingly. 0:19:11.720 --> 0:19:14.200 Is that correct? Have I misquoted you over the years? 0:19:14.240 --> 0:19:16.160 You know? I mean, that's that's that's the right idea. 0:19:16.200 --> 0:19:18.760 I mean, I you know, I don't not talking about 0:19:18.760 --> 0:19:20.919 any book in general, but talking more about the like 0:19:20.960 --> 0:19:23.080 badge of honor idea. I mean, I think there's you know, 0:19:23.080 --> 0:19:25.480 there's a subset of gamblers that you know, their ego 0:19:25.560 --> 0:19:27.680 is kind of tied up and you know how smart 0:19:27.720 --> 0:19:29.680 they are. And the thing about gambling is there's not 0:19:29.720 --> 0:19:32.520 really like like it's a really solitary thing. Like the 0:19:32.840 --> 0:19:34.920 people that I know who have won you know, literally 0:19:34.920 --> 0:19:36.680 seven figures are more. I mean a lot of times 0:19:36.680 --> 0:19:40.439 they're literally doing it in complete anonymity. They have a 0:19:40.480 --> 0:19:43.160 small network of people. Sometimes they man on the internet. 0:19:43.280 --> 0:19:45.760 Sometimes they only know them by handles, you know, sometimes 0:19:45.800 --> 0:19:48.040 they're halfway across the world, and those are the only 0:19:48.040 --> 0:19:50.560 people in on the secret that they're these brilliant people 0:19:50.760 --> 0:19:54.240 that million and that just eats at them that they 0:19:54.320 --> 0:19:56.600