1
00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:15,120
Speaker 1: What's up, guys?

2
00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:18,239
Speaker 2: How are you welcome into a Thursday morning episode of

3
00:00:18,280 --> 00:00:21,439
Speaker 2: the Daily Juice Podcast. My name is Matt Perrault. I

4
00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:23,920
Speaker 2: am with you every single day here on the Betting

5
00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:27,840
Speaker 2: Grows YouTube channel and also on your audio podcast platforms.

6
00:00:27,880 --> 00:00:31,640
Speaker 2: Everywhere you get your audio podcast platforms. You can follow

7
00:00:31,640 --> 00:00:34,519
Speaker 2: me across all socials at Sports Talk Matt and this

8
00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:37,000
Speaker 2: podcast being brought to you by Omaha Steaks dot com.

9
00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:39,920
Speaker 2: We have a customer custom u ur L that you

10
00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:41,959
Speaker 2: guys will now use if you're gonna go place your

11
00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:45,000
Speaker 2: orders with Omaha Steaks. It is Omaha Steaks dot com

12
00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:47,680
Speaker 2: slash juice. So no more promo code, although the promo

13
00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:50,600
Speaker 2: code does work, but this will get you directly in

14
00:00:51,159 --> 00:00:53,560
Speaker 2: and it will load up your cart with the free

15
00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:56,120
Speaker 2: pork chops and the free chicken breasts for those of each,

16
00:00:56,600 --> 00:00:59,200
Speaker 2: plus whatever you go buy for yourself at Omaha Steaks

17
00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:02,240
Speaker 2: dot com or just maybe required Alma Stakes dot com

18
00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:06,280
Speaker 2: slash juice. All Right, last night was extraordinarily frustrating. I

19
00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:09,240
Speaker 2: am probably more angry than I want to let on

20
00:01:09,319 --> 00:01:10,920
Speaker 2: at the moment, but man, I don't know if you

21
00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:13,360
Speaker 2: guys watched the Iowa State game, but those are games

22
00:01:13,440 --> 00:01:17,600
Speaker 2: that look nothing is rigged, nothing is fixed, nothing is

23
00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:21,440
Speaker 2: you know, crooked or corrupt. Okay, but I get why

24
00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:24,000
Speaker 2: people think that when you watch games like Iowa State

25
00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:27,560
Speaker 2: at k State, when the number is four in case

26
00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:29,880
Speaker 2: State with two minutes to play, they were down two.

27
00:01:30,400 --> 00:01:32,720
Speaker 2: I mean that game two minutes to go down to

28
00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:35,880
Speaker 2: they had like a ninety five percent chance to cover,

29
00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:38,840
Speaker 2: and then you get an awful foul call, I mean,

30
00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:42,520
Speaker 2: just an embarrassing foul call with Iowa State in the

31
00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:46,760
Speaker 2: double bonus, and the coach gets teed up three points

32
00:01:46,880 --> 00:01:50,320
Speaker 2: right there shouldn't have been a foul, should have been

33
00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:53,440
Speaker 2: a turnover with a walk, not a foul, and then

34
00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:55,160
Speaker 2: the tea doesn't happen.

35
00:01:56,280 --> 00:02:00,480
Speaker 1: Iowa State one by eleven. We bet eight. Those three

36
00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:01,160
Speaker 1: points were the.

37
00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:05,240
Speaker 2: Difference between a push and an Iowa was State cover,

38
00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:07,560
Speaker 2: you know, And people were like, you know it's legal

39
00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:10,520
Speaker 2: to bet in Iowa now, yeah, Okay, Jerry Pollard's a

40
00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:13,600
Speaker 2: referee who worked that game. I know, Jerry, he's a

41
00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:17,720
Speaker 2: former cop. Okay, He's not doing anything nefarious. It's just

42
00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:19,800
Speaker 2: a frustration. And I get why people call those things out,

43
00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:21,560
Speaker 2: and I get why they're like, oh, it's all fixed

44
00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:23,640
Speaker 2: and raked because it's just like, wait a minute, Iowa

45
00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:27,040
Speaker 2: State was ten and one going in ATS, and they

46
00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:29,200
Speaker 2: had no business covering, zero business.

47
00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:30,639
Speaker 1: They were gonna win the game, there's no debate. They're

48
00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:31,240
Speaker 1: winning the game.

49
00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:34,720
Speaker 2: They weren't going to cover though, and they did so

50
00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:37,440
Speaker 2: that was annoying. And then Hockey Saint Louis just ran

51
00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:39,560
Speaker 2: out of gas. I mean they won the game in overtime,

52
00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:41,680
Speaker 2: but defensively they ran out of gas. It was two

53
00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:44,160
Speaker 2: nothing going into the third period. The game ended for

54
00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:48,600
Speaker 2: to three, Like come on, five goals in the third

55
00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:52,000
Speaker 2: period and overtime. You know, that's just a frustration. I

56
00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:56,160
Speaker 2: you know, it happens, you know, it happens. And but

57
00:02:56,200 --> 00:02:58,120
Speaker 2: then again, Alabama, that could have been an zero to

58
00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:00,840
Speaker 2: three night. That was if Alabama. If that three point

59
00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:03,360
Speaker 2: shot the buzzer that Auburn took and hit, they would

60
00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:07,160
Speaker 2: have won by one, not four. So we got lucky there.

61
00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:08,960
Speaker 2: So there is a little bit of a break in

62
00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:11,760
Speaker 2: terms of eving it out. Was one in two down

63
00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:14,880
Speaker 2: one point three units could easily been oh in three

64
00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:17,320
Speaker 2: And as I've talked about, oh and three's are disaster,

65
00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:20,519
Speaker 2: I mean just absolute disaster. So I would take a

66
00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:22,840
Speaker 2: one and two night every single time if it's that

67
00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:27,400
Speaker 2: or oh and three. So I hate the car tonight.

68
00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:30,000
Speaker 2: I mean there's nothing I love. I'm gonna give you

69
00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:33,440
Speaker 2: three college basketball bets, but like I'm already starting my

70
00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:37,160
Speaker 2: NASCAR prep, I'm already starting my golf prep. Like I'm

71
00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:39,840
Speaker 2: looking around for other things to bet, because I don't

72
00:03:39,880 --> 00:03:42,600
Speaker 2: want to bet the NBA, all right. I mean the

73
00:03:42,640 --> 00:03:45,240
Speaker 2: dead Cat balance worked for the Bucks? Are you kidding me?

74
00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:49,400
Speaker 2: They won and covered the seven. The Cavs had won

75
00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:51,520
Speaker 2: eight straight games going into that game, and they lost

76
00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:55,440
Speaker 2: and didn't and didn't cover. Okay, Doc Rivers' debut with

77
00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:59,560
Speaker 2: the Bucks. You know, it's just a very the NBA.

78
00:03:59,760 --> 00:04:02,120
Speaker 2: Just I don't find it fun to bet the NBA.

79
00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:03,720
Speaker 2: Some people love it. I hate it.

80
00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:04,840
Speaker 1: I don't like it at all.

81
00:04:05,000 --> 00:04:07,480
Speaker 2: I like betting hockey, but I like betting hockey, like

82
00:04:07,520 --> 00:04:10,400
Speaker 2: not officially, like full and around betting live and whatnot,

83
00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:15,320
Speaker 2: like just nothing serious, nothing real, not committing full units

84
00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:19,000
Speaker 2: to betting hockey. So I gotta find my way in

85
00:04:19,080 --> 00:04:22,120
Speaker 2: with hockey right now. In the NHL, I'm three and

86
00:04:22,200 --> 00:04:27,039
Speaker 2: six here in January, down three point one units. And

87
00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:30,480
Speaker 2: in college basketball I'm twenty two and sixteen, up four

88
00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:32,800
Speaker 2: point four units, So like I'm just going to lean

89
00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:33,800
Speaker 2: into what I'm doing well.

90
00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:36,120
Speaker 1: I mean, the NFL has gone really well for us

91
00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:36,920
Speaker 1: so far.

92
00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:39,760
Speaker 2: Here in January as well, I'm fourteen and eight in

93
00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:43,040
Speaker 2: the NFL, up four point seven units.

94
00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:45,200
Speaker 1: I mean, the NBA has been disastrous.

95
00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:48,559
Speaker 2: I'm one in seven in the NBA, down six point

96
00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:50,600
Speaker 2: seven units in the NBA, in the NHL, and now

97
00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:51,320
Speaker 2: I'm down three.

98
00:04:51,440 --> 00:04:52,520
Speaker 1: So NBA in the.

99
00:04:52,600 --> 00:04:57,159
Speaker 2: NHL last year carried me because the NFL wasn't great

100
00:04:57,520 --> 00:04:59,359
Speaker 2: and college basketball was kind of up and down. So

101
00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:01,000
Speaker 2: this is just kind of the way these things are

102
00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:04,279
Speaker 2: gonna roll. NBA player props, I'm down a half a unit.

103
00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:06,640
Speaker 2: I'm three and four on the NBA player props, so

104
00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:08,919
Speaker 2: add another half a unit. I'm down in the NBA.

105
00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:11,360
Speaker 2: So you know, I'm down over seven units in the NBA,

106
00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:15,040
Speaker 2: and I'm profitable this month, okay, So I'm up over

107
00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:17,520
Speaker 2: three units on the month. So you know, we got

108
00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:20,200
Speaker 2: a nice score coming this weekend. We're either gonna win.

109
00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:23,200
Speaker 2: You know, I'm gonna pick how much we're gonna win,

110
00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:26,280
Speaker 2: hopefully either you know minimum, because we'll bet the Chiefs

111
00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:27,719
Speaker 2: on the money line and we'll see how high that

112
00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:30,080
Speaker 2: number runs. We're at four, so if that number keep

113
00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:32,520
Speaker 2: on climbing and we get to bet less to take

114
00:05:32,560 --> 00:05:34,720
Speaker 2: off the future. If the Ravens win like I think

115
00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:37,000
Speaker 2: they're going to, well, then we're gonna get ourselves into

116
00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:40,480
Speaker 2: a very nice payday or eight, nine, ten, eleven units

117
00:05:40,520 --> 00:05:43,719
Speaker 2: potentially we're gonna come in and take. So I don't know,

118
00:05:43,760 --> 00:05:45,080
Speaker 2: I haven't come up with the idea as to what

119
00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:47,880
Speaker 2: I'm betting yet. That'll be on Sunday Morning's podcast, and

120
00:05:47,960 --> 00:05:50,880
Speaker 2: so definitely the hedge is going to be well probably, yeah,

121
00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:52,680
Speaker 2: it'll be on Sunday because we're doing Sunday Morning live

122
00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:56,479
Speaker 2: stream is Sunday morning, that Saturday morning this week, so i'll.

123
00:05:56,279 --> 00:05:56,920
Speaker 1: Give it to you then.

124
00:05:57,000 --> 00:05:59,200
Speaker 2: But you know, we're gonna wind up with if the

125
00:05:59,279 --> 00:06:02,359
Speaker 2: Ravens win that game, we'll have a very profitable January.

126
00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:05,719
Speaker 2: So let's see what happens with the Ravens future that

127
00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:07,720
Speaker 2: we have out there. Going for them to win the

128
00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:11,400
Speaker 2: AFC at eleven to one. So I'm not concerned about

129
00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:15,120
Speaker 2: where we are. But I'm gonna stay with college basketball

130
00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:16,800
Speaker 2: here for tonight. But I don't like the card. I'm

131
00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:18,240
Speaker 2: gonna tell you straight up, I don't like the card

132
00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:20,799
Speaker 2: I've got to play. I'm gonna go back to betting

133
00:06:21,320 --> 00:06:24,279
Speaker 2: the trend. The road team lost coming home as a

134
00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:27,040
Speaker 2: home dog. There are games I never would be looking

135
00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:28,800
Speaker 2: at some of these games if it wasn't for that trend.

136
00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:31,039
Speaker 2: It's really interesting. I found my way to finding some

137
00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:33,320
Speaker 2: very small Horizon League game. We're gonna bet tonight. We're

138
00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:35,480
Speaker 2: on bet tonight. So but we're gonna start with the

139
00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:39,640
Speaker 2: PAC twelve and let's start talking. It's both Oregon and

140
00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:42,520
Speaker 2: Oregon State. We'll start with Arizona at Oregon State. The

141
00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:48,600
Speaker 2: numbers nineteen nineteen points. Arizona's four and four and four

142
00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:52,080
Speaker 2: on the road. Oregon State is eight and two ats

143
00:06:52,120 --> 00:06:56,320
Speaker 2: at home, and they're catching nineteen points. This is a

144
00:06:56,360 --> 00:07:01,040
Speaker 2: big number, Okay. I mean, look, Oregon State, I guess

145
00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:02,839
Speaker 2: it kind of fits the trend a little bit. I

146
00:07:02,839 --> 00:07:05,839
Speaker 2: mean they lost to Colorado ninety to fifty seven in

147
00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:09,200
Speaker 2: their last game. They lost to Utah seventy four to

148
00:07:09,240 --> 00:07:12,360
Speaker 2: forty seven in their last game. I mean they've just

149
00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:16,360
Speaker 2: been getting completely and totally smashed on the road on

150
00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:19,000
Speaker 2: the road. Oh sorry, look sorry, that's the over. Sorry

151
00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:21,200
Speaker 2: I'm wrong one excuse me? Eight and two to the

152
00:07:21,320 --> 00:07:23,160
Speaker 2: over Oregon State. So you want to bet the over

153
00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:24,640
Speaker 2: this game out because I was looking at the total

154
00:07:24,640 --> 00:07:26,240
Speaker 2: of this game. You can bet the over in this

155
00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:28,440
Speaker 2: game if you want. If one forty nine is a total,

156
00:07:28,440 --> 00:07:29,560
Speaker 2: you can bet that if you want.

157
00:07:30,520 --> 00:07:33,400
Speaker 1: But I'm looking at the I bet plus nineteen. And

158
00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:34,080
Speaker 1: here's why.

159
00:07:34,200 --> 00:07:39,040
Speaker 2: Oregon State's five and five ats four and four for Arizona.

160
00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:42,840
Speaker 2: But here's the thing. Okay, At home Stanford, they were

161
00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:46,320
Speaker 2: catching four and a half, lost by four. At home

162
00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:48,880
Speaker 2: against USC, they were catching eight and a half. They

163
00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:52,080
Speaker 2: won by sixteen. They were six and a half point

164
00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:55,680
Speaker 2: dogs do Ucla. They lost by seven. They were laying

165
00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:59,600
Speaker 2: seven against Idaho State they won by nineteen. In conference,

166
00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:02,840
Speaker 2: organ State is four and three ATS and Arizona is

167
00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:06,560
Speaker 2: three and four. Look at the big numbers this season

168
00:08:06,640 --> 00:08:09,720
Speaker 2: that have been laid by Arizona and they haven't covered.

169
00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:13,520
Speaker 2: At home against UCLA, laying seventeen and a half, they

170
00:08:13,520 --> 00:08:17,760
Speaker 2: won by six, laying twenty one against USC at home

171
00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:21,760
Speaker 2: they won by fifteen. They were laying nine at Washington

172
00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:24,920
Speaker 2: in their last game and they lost by three. They

173
00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:27,800
Speaker 2: laid twenty three and a half against Colgate and they

174
00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:30,040
Speaker 2: covered that, but that was all the way back in

175
00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:33,120
Speaker 2: the beginning of December, before they started playing conference games.

176
00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:38,080
Speaker 2: When they're laying big numbers on the road or at home,

177
00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:41,320
Speaker 2: I mean they're not covering all that consistently. Last two

178
00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:43,559
Speaker 2: big numbers seventeen and a half and twenty one and

179
00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:46,679
Speaker 2: a half, both at home, they both didn't cover either one.

180
00:08:47,200 --> 00:08:49,640
Speaker 2: Nineteen points is just kind of like a principal play here.

181
00:08:49,679 --> 00:08:51,880
Speaker 2: It does factor into the losing them lose the game

182
00:08:51,920 --> 00:08:54,640
Speaker 2: on the road. They lost to Colorado by thirty three points,

183
00:08:54,679 --> 00:08:57,560
Speaker 2: on the road by catching eighteen, lost by Utah as well.

184
00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:01,679
Speaker 2: Are they desperate, Yeah, I mean sure they're desperate. They

185
00:09:01,720 --> 00:09:04,760
Speaker 2: need to win that. I mean they're in desperate need.

186
00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:07,480
Speaker 2: This is a seventeen point win for Oregon. So sorry

187
00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:11,280
Speaker 2: for Arizona against Oregon State. According to Kenpom, Arizona State's

188
00:09:11,280 --> 00:09:14,000
Speaker 2: got great defense. It's or Arizona. He's got great defense.

189
00:09:15,160 --> 00:09:17,160
Speaker 2: As we know, their offense is great. When they want

190
00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:20,160
Speaker 2: to go and annihilate somebody, they can, but Oregon State's

191
00:09:20,160 --> 00:09:25,679
Speaker 2: pace of play is not great. Three hundred and third, Okay,

192
00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:29,679
Speaker 2: when you're gonna blow somebody out, generally, you need to

193
00:09:29,760 --> 00:09:33,680
Speaker 2: have somebody who is going to want to run with you.

194
00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:35,640
Speaker 2: By twenty now Grant died. They can win the game

195
00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:38,280
Speaker 2: eighty to fifty and we lose this bet. Okay, it's

196
00:09:38,320 --> 00:09:40,480
Speaker 2: not impossible, but I'm gonna take Oregon State to at

197
00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:45,560
Speaker 2: least lose the game, but don't get completely and totally annihilated. Here,

198
00:09:46,440 --> 00:09:48,520
Speaker 2: Ken Palm hopefully that we're right here with them in

199
00:09:48,559 --> 00:09:50,679
Speaker 2: Oregon State. You know, going on the road in college

200
00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:54,640
Speaker 2: basketball has been difficult. They've lost at Stanford, they've lost

201
00:09:54,720 --> 00:09:58,240
Speaker 2: at Washington State. Stanford is not good, although Oregon State

202
00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:00,400
Speaker 2: is worse than Stanford. So I'm not gonna here and

203
00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:03,040
Speaker 2: say that like, you know, there's something to be proud of,

204
00:10:03,160 --> 00:10:06,120
Speaker 2: or like we look into it. They lost to Stanford

205
00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:09,000
Speaker 2: at home. Oregon State did but in overtime eighty eight

206
00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:12,120
Speaker 2: to eighty four, so they hung around there. But five

207
00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:17,160
Speaker 2: straight losses for Oregon State here, they're one in six in.

208
00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:17,880
Speaker 1: The Pac twelve.

209
00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:22,160
Speaker 2: They are they've only won one game, they beat usc

210
00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:24,599
Speaker 2: Not on December the thirtieth, So say that they're in

211
00:10:24,640 --> 00:10:27,640
Speaker 2: desperate need of a W. Wayne Tinkle needs a W

212
00:10:27,920 --> 00:10:32,040
Speaker 2: big time here for the Pac twelve Beavers. I'll take

213
00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:37,320
Speaker 2: a flyer here plus nineteen Oregon State plus nineteen against

214
00:10:37,360 --> 00:10:42,840
Speaker 2: Arizona here tonight at home, staying with the Arizona Oregon connection.

215
00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:47,040
Speaker 2: Arizona State is at Oregon, so we're taking Oregon State

216
00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:51,440
Speaker 2: plus nineteen. Oregon is laying eight and a half on

217
00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:54,520
Speaker 2: the road, so are at home up against Arizona State.

218
00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:59,520
Speaker 2: Oregon is six and three ats at home. Oregon's four

219
00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:03,280
Speaker 2: and three ats in the Pac twelve. Arizona Sate it's

220
00:11:03,320 --> 00:11:06,839
Speaker 2: five and two in the Pac twelve. But they're three

221
00:11:06,920 --> 00:11:10,480
Speaker 2: and six on the road against Washington. In their last

222
00:11:10,559 --> 00:11:13,719
Speaker 2: road game, they were seven point dogs. They lost by fifteen.

223
00:11:14,480 --> 00:11:18,040
Speaker 2: They did beat Cal in Stanford on the road, but

224
00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:21,600
Speaker 2: this is Oregon we're talking about, not Cal and Stanford.

225
00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:25,280
Speaker 2: And Oregon is a team that I think is just

226
00:11:25,400 --> 00:11:27,520
Speaker 2: coming into their own. It's a team that I want

227
00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:32,000
Speaker 2: to watch. I think there's a halfway decent potential for

228
00:11:32,240 --> 00:11:35,240
Speaker 2: Oregon to make a run. Look, I'm a big Dan

229
00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:38,760
Speaker 2: Almon fan. I like Dan Altman a lot. This is

230
00:11:38,800 --> 00:11:42,080
Speaker 2: an eight point win. According to kempom. The number opened

231
00:11:42,160 --> 00:11:44,000
Speaker 2: up at eight and a half. It's staying at eight

232
00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:48,880
Speaker 2: and a half here. And this Oregon offense forty first

233
00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:52,600
Speaker 2: in efficiency, forty third effective field goal percentage, twenty ninth

234
00:11:52,640 --> 00:11:56,320
Speaker 2: in three point percentage, ninety second and two point percentage.

235
00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:57,400
Speaker 1: They're getting a lot.

236
00:11:57,240 --> 00:11:59,319
Speaker 2: Of their point from behind the arc, as most teams

237
00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:03,559
Speaker 2: for Oregon code by Dane Altman will thirty two percent

238
00:12:03,640 --> 00:12:06,559
Speaker 2: of their points coming from behind the arc. They are

239
00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:09,800
Speaker 2: a team that doesn't get to the line very much.

240
00:12:10,200 --> 00:12:13,520
Speaker 2: They're really a stop and pop and drill type of team.

241
00:12:13,760 --> 00:12:17,600
Speaker 2: But Oregon State offensively just is awful. They are two

242
00:12:17,720 --> 00:12:20,280
Speaker 2: hundred and sixty ninth in effective field goal percentage, they're

243
00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:22,920
Speaker 2: two hundred and sixty ninth in three point percentage, they

244
00:12:22,920 --> 00:12:25,400
Speaker 2: are two hundred and thirty fourth in two point percentage,

245
00:12:25,440 --> 00:12:28,440
Speaker 2: and they stink at free throw shooting three hundred and

246
00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:31,640
Speaker 2: forty fifth in free throw shooting, Like they can't they

247
00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:37,720
Speaker 2: can't shoot at all. So adjusted efficiency on offense one

248
00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:40,559
Speaker 2: hundred and ninety fifth. Oregon's not great defensively, but they're

249
00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:44,800
Speaker 2: good enough ninety fourth inefficiency. They're not great at three

250
00:12:44,800 --> 00:12:47,440
Speaker 2: point defense doesn't really matter because of what's happening with

251
00:12:47,480 --> 00:12:50,560
Speaker 2: Arizona State two hundred and thirty and two point percentage

252
00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:53,120
Speaker 2: again doesn't really matter because what's going on with Arizona State.

253
00:12:53,679 --> 00:12:55,720
Speaker 2: I just don't think Arizona State is going to score

254
00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:58,720
Speaker 2: very much here, and I like the Ducks at home

255
00:12:58,920 --> 00:13:02,239
Speaker 2: here to win this one going away. This game's unfortunately

256
00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:05,200
Speaker 2: on the PAC twelve network, meaning nobody can watch this game,

257
00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:07,719
Speaker 2: but that's what the PAC twelve wants and kind of

258
00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:09,959
Speaker 2: why the PAC twelve is dead as we now. No,

259
00:13:10,640 --> 00:13:11,960
Speaker 2: I'm gonna lay of the eight and a half points

260
00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:16,240
Speaker 2: Oregon minus eight and a half for one point one units.

261
00:13:17,120 --> 00:13:20,200
Speaker 2: And lastly, a game that I would never look at

262
00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:22,360
Speaker 2: if it wasn't for the fact that I'm looking at

263
00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:25,360
Speaker 2: this trend for teams that lose on the road to

264
00:13:25,440 --> 00:13:30,320
Speaker 2: come back home as dogs. Green Bay, Wisconsin. Green Bay

265
00:13:30,400 --> 00:13:33,600
Speaker 2: got worked by Northern Kentucky in the Horizon League last

266
00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:37,679
Speaker 2: game seventy four point fifty two, but they're seven and

267
00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:41,079
Speaker 2: three in the league, so it was an anomaly. They

268
00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:44,439
Speaker 2: had won three games in a row. They lost at

269
00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:47,920
Speaker 2: Oakland when they played on January the sixth, seventy nine

270
00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:51,240
Speaker 2: to seventy three. This is a one point win for

271
00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:54,000
Speaker 2: Oakland according to Ken Pond, but the number is two

272
00:13:54,000 --> 00:13:57,160
Speaker 2: and a half at DraftKings tonight for green Bay at

273
00:13:57,200 --> 00:14:01,080
Speaker 2: home in the Horizon League. When you dig down to

274
00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:05,240
Speaker 2: the numbers, Wisconsin Green Bay is five and one at

275
00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:09,600
Speaker 2: home and their nine and one ATS in conference this year.

276
00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:12,559
Speaker 2: The only game they didn't cover so far in conference

277
00:14:12,880 --> 00:14:15,200
Speaker 2: was the last game in which they were five and

278
00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:17,959
Speaker 2: a half point dogs, and they lost by twenty two points.

279
00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:21,320
Speaker 2: So they're coming back home trying to get a split here.

280
00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:24,640
Speaker 2: And I know you're if you know this game, Matt.

281
00:14:24,680 --> 00:14:27,160
Speaker 2: Oakland's ten and three ATS, yep, but they're four and

282
00:14:27,280 --> 00:14:30,200
Speaker 2: five in conference. A lot of their numbers, a lot

283
00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:32,360
Speaker 2: of their wins in their covers, came early in the

284
00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:36,720
Speaker 2: year when Oakland opened up eight and oh ats. Most

285
00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:39,960
Speaker 2: of those games were away from home at iOS sorry

286
00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:44,720
Speaker 2: at Ohio State, covered at Illinois, covered neutral against Drake,

287
00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:49,040
Speaker 2: covered neutral against the Little Marrimont, covered neutral against Marshall,

288
00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:54,240
Speaker 2: covered neutral, away at Xavier, covered away at Detroit, covered

289
00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:56,200
Speaker 2: since conference play.

290
00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:56,560
Speaker 1: Has been gun.

291
00:14:57,400 --> 00:15:01,320
Speaker 2: Yes, they just whipped IUPUI twelve the one by twenty

292
00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:04,120
Speaker 2: two points. But you start looking at you know, against

293
00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:07,360
Speaker 2: Dayton they lost by twenty four. Michigan State lost by seventeen,

294
00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:12,080
Speaker 2: Cleveland State lost by eight. This might be revenge time

295
00:15:12,160 --> 00:15:15,520
Speaker 2: for Wisconsin Green Bay plus two and a half. Maybe

296
00:15:15,520 --> 00:15:18,640
Speaker 2: a money line sprinkle green Bay four and one their

297
00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:21,040
Speaker 2: last five, seven and two over the last ten, or

298
00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:23,040
Speaker 2: seven and three over the last ten, nine and one

299
00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:25,400
Speaker 2: in conference. I'm taking the two and a half points.

300
00:15:25,720 --> 00:15:28,640
Speaker 2: Give me Green Bay, Wisconsin at home plus two and

301
00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:32,840
Speaker 2: a half against Oakland for one point one units. Okay,

302
00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:36,880
Speaker 2: three college basketball bets again. I'm not in love with

303
00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:38,960
Speaker 2: the card tonight. I don't love I like those bets.

304
00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:40,760
Speaker 2: I don't love those bets. I've made those bets. But

305
00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:43,920
Speaker 2: we'll see what happens here tonight. As we're rolling kind

306
00:15:43,920 --> 00:15:45,960
Speaker 2: of an up and down type of week we got

307
00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:48,920
Speaker 2: going on here so far, let's see, so we have

308
00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:52,040
Speaker 2: been yeah, down, up down or down up down. So

309
00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:54,840
Speaker 2: as we head to Thursday, we're due to have a

310
00:15:54,840 --> 00:15:57,120
Speaker 2: winning week. You know why sports betting is hard by

311
00:15:57,120 --> 00:16:00,360
Speaker 2: the way we went on Tuesday night. We went two

312
00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:05,600
Speaker 2: in one up point nine units. We go one and

313
00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:09,640
Speaker 2: two down one point three. Like you see why betting

314
00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:13,080
Speaker 2: is hard, Like it's one game, but like it's when

315
00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:15,400
Speaker 2: you win, you don't. You don't win nearly as much

316
00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:18,040
Speaker 2: as when you lose. Like that's why sports betting is

317
00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:21,000
Speaker 2: so tough. You're wonder why sports betting is that's a

318
00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:23,600
Speaker 2: challenge and why it's so difficult to do this. Eleven

319
00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:27,640
Speaker 2: versus ten built this stuff. You're always minus one ten.

320
00:16:28,080 --> 00:16:30,440
Speaker 2: The book is always ahead of us. So even when

321
00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:32,800
Speaker 2: we wind up going over a two day period, we

322
00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:36,000
Speaker 2: go three and three over a two day period and

323
00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:40,800
Speaker 2: we're down point four. That is sports betting in a nutshell.

324
00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:44,280
Speaker 2: It stinks, but that's why this thing is so difficult.

325
00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:47,200
Speaker 2: It's also so much fun at Sports Doc, Matt my

326
00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:50,200
Speaker 2: handle across all socials. Follow me there minus Matt Parolt

327
00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:52,840
Speaker 2: every single morning. The Deal Juice podcast OH is being

328
00:16:52,840 --> 00:17:07,440
Speaker 2: brought to you by olmos Stakes dot Com