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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast. It's on target.

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Speaker 2: It is good yo.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go throwing him job spectestular.

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Speaker 2: I'm saying it's a catch touchdown, and.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to win.

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Speaker 2: God, that's incredible.

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Speaker 1: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 1: This is the ultimate kabara and we are underway.

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Speaker 3: What's up everybody? And welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 3: I am your host, Chris Raybond. This is our last

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Speaker 3: pod reading up to the twenty twenty two NFL Draft,

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Speaker 3: and I am proud to introduce our guests for today.

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Speaker 3: He is the director of content at Fantasy Pros and

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Speaker 3: Betting Pros, is a four time top sixteen Fantasy football achor, and,

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Speaker 3: most importantly for this show, the number three mock drafter

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Speaker 3: since twenty nineteen.

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Speaker 1: Matthew Friedman.

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Speaker 3: You can follow him on Twitter at Matt f the Oracle.

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Speaker 1: Matt. Glad to have you back, man. What's up?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, thanks for having me. It's it's been a minute.

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Speaker 2: By the way, is Sean Corter too important to jump

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Speaker 2: onto the podcast to make it a trio?

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Speaker 3: Like?

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Speaker 2: What's going on? Why is it in Shaw?

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Speaker 3: Here?

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Speaker 2: When I looked in the outline saw that he wasn't

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Speaker 2: going to be on the show, I decided to no,

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Speaker 2: I am not going to wear my Action Network hoodie.

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Speaker 2: I would have done that otherwise to you know, spin

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Speaker 2: back the Clock, have some good vibes, but no, no quarter,

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Speaker 2: no Action Network coodie.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I think the thing was like Sean Corner

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Speaker 3: didn't want to do it. Sean Kerner, on the other hand,

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Speaker 3: I think he's still recovering. I had a little birthday

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Speaker 3: celebration this weekend and he came out, So I think

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Speaker 3: he's still I think he still might be recovering from that.

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Speaker 3: So I'm just gonna I'm taking the reins, you know.

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Speaker 2: Look to me, he will he will always be Corner.

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Speaker 3: Okay, he's gonna listen back to this and this is

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Speaker 3: probably gonna be some some smoke thrown on Twitter, so

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Speaker 3: everybody look out for that, and uh look at right

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Speaker 3: to it.

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Speaker 1: Matt, you have a lot of mocks out already. You

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Speaker 1: do that.

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Speaker 3: You kind of update, even updating with kind of new

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Speaker 3: versions throughout the offseason. So before we jump into like

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Speaker 3: you know, how we think Round one is going to

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Speaker 3: play out, our best bets I just want to get

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Speaker 3: kind of your general overview for how you approach round one.

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Speaker 3: I know your approach kind of changes as it gets

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Speaker 3: closer and closer to the actual draft.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so in the early monks, you know, you're kind

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Speaker 2: of feeling your way into the process and you're thinking

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Speaker 2: about you know, team fit and things like that, and

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Speaker 2: you know, you're kind of trying to get a sense

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Speaker 2: of the board, but really it's just you're you're going

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Speaker 2: through the exercise. But as you get closer, I think

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Speaker 2: people tend to focus too much on team need and

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Speaker 2: don't focus enough on what is this guy's odds to

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Speaker 2: be in round one? And I need to make sure

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Speaker 2: somehow that he's in round one of my mock if

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Speaker 2: I really think he's going to get there. And so,

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Speaker 2: you know, I have one more mock that I'm going

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Speaker 2: to do. That's the final one comes out on you know,

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Speaker 2: Thursday morning. That's going to be the one where it's

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Speaker 2: just like, Okay, these are my thirty two I need

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Speaker 2: to figure out how to make them fit, you know,

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Speaker 2: instead of necessarily thinking about team needs.

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Speaker 3: And I guess a follow up question to that is,

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Speaker 3: because I know you love to bet the draft, that's

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Speaker 3: why we're here. You mentioned that kind of as you're

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Speaker 3: mocking these things, the odds are kind of influencing, you know,

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Speaker 3: your mock.

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Speaker 1: So how are you kind of.

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Speaker 3: Juggling, you know, incorporating the odds into what you already think,

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Speaker 3: but also exploiting the odds to make profitable picks.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, for the most part, I'm not paying too much

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Speaker 2: attention to the market. I'm looking more at what I

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Speaker 2: think of as the sharp mock drafters, and so, you know,

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Speaker 2: throughout the season the offseason all have just like a

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Speaker 2: rolling index of sharp mocks that I'm bringing together, surveying, aggregating,

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Speaker 2: and using that to help drive some of the decisions

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Speaker 2: that I'm making, whether it's you know, where I want

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Speaker 2: to put a guy in a mock draft, how it

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Speaker 2: is that I have like my wide receivers stacked, or

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Speaker 2: bets that I might look to make in the market.

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Speaker 2: I do look at the market, you know, kind of

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Speaker 2: consult it a little bit, but really I'm focused much

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Speaker 2: more on what I think sharp mock drafters are doing

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Speaker 2: versus what the market.

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Speaker 1: Is telling me. Absolutely makes a lot of sense.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's start talking about the draft, and let's

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Speaker 3: start at the top with the number one pick. You know,

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Speaker 3: in very recently it seems like Trayvon Walker has kind

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Speaker 3: of jump Aiden Hutchinson.

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Speaker 1: Is that census number one pick?

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Speaker 3: Where are you on who is going to kind of

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Speaker 3: lead us off with that number one overall pick?

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Speaker 2: And this year's draft, yeah, Turvon Walker is the that

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Speaker 2: I'm going with, And you know, I've kind of vacillated

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Speaker 2: back and forth between them. But in the first mock

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Speaker 2: that I did at Fantasy Pros is the one right

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Speaker 2: after that big first wave of free agency, I had

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Speaker 2: Walker as the number one guy, And the main reason

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Speaker 2: why I did it was because I thought that Walker

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Speaker 2: was probably the second likeliest guy to go number one.

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Speaker 2: But I just wanted to take a stand because everyone

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Speaker 2: at that point, like ninety percent of mock drafts had

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Speaker 2: Aiden Hutchinson going number one, and it was just like, probabilistically,

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Speaker 2: that is way too high, Like, you know, maybe at

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Speaker 2: the point he had a fifty percent chance, a sixty

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Speaker 2: percent chance, but I mean, I just wanted to put

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Speaker 2: someone else other than Aiden Hutchinson number one because there

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Speaker 2: was way too much groupthink going on at the time.

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Speaker 2: So you know, I had Trevon Walker in my first mock.

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Speaker 2: You know, I went to Hutchinson, back to trevon Walker

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Speaker 2: now and you see that reflected in the betting markets,

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Speaker 2: and you're starting to see it in a lot of

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Speaker 2: the sharp mocks in the industry. Now at this point

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Speaker 2: is about half and half Hutchinson and Walker. I expect

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Speaker 2: by tomorrow or you know, Thursday, when we have more

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Speaker 2: mock drafts coming out, you'll see more picks for Walker.

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Speaker 2: So I'm there with Walker number one. I don't know

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Speaker 2: if it's necessarily the right pick, like what the Jags

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Speaker 2: should be doing, but I think that is what they

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Speaker 2: will do.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and that's all that's important for you know, as

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Speaker 3: you're approaching this from a betting angle, it's you kind

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Speaker 3: of got to suspend what you think these teams could do.

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Speaker 1: And we talk about this all the time.

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Speaker 3: You know a lot of times they go against what

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Speaker 3: you think they should do or you know as an analyst,

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Speaker 3: but you know, looking at the odds here, Walker at draftings,

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Speaker 3: for example, is around minus one ninety. That seems to

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Speaker 3: be the consensus. It's minus one sixty a couple of

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Speaker 3: days ago. Is that too far past your limit or

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Speaker 3: what's your limit? If you are looking to bet this

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Speaker 3: number one pick and go with Walker.

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't bet it at this point, you know, around

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Speaker 2: minus one ninety minus two hundred. I think that that's

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Speaker 2: probably around fair value. If anything, At this point, I

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Speaker 2: would maybe start to look at Hutchinson or at Chemic Kwanu,

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Speaker 2: because I do think that there is a chance that

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Speaker 2: they go offensive tackle, not a great chance. U. Balky

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Speaker 2: is the guy, the general manager, Trent Balkey is the

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Speaker 2: guy who ultimately I think controls what happens with that pick.

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Speaker 2: And you know, the reporting is that he does prefer

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Speaker 2: Travon Walker. But if the coaching staff is able to

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Speaker 2: get in his ear and convince them, hey, we want

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Speaker 2: an offensive tackle, we want someone who can help protect

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Speaker 2: our starting quarterback, then I think it's a Chemic Kwanu.

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Speaker 3: All right, So what about the you know, the kind

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Speaker 3: of rest of the top five you already mentioned to

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Speaker 3: Kwanu and Hutchinson, but just generally, you know, based on

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Speaker 3: what you're currently your current mock, where do you how

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Speaker 3: do you see the rest of the top five plan out?

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Speaker 3: And what bets do you see that maybe do show

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Speaker 3: value based on that top five and how you see

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Speaker 3: a plan out.

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Speaker 2: So there are pivot points all throughout the top ten,

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Speaker 2: and we'll just say, you know, Aiden Hutchinson mortal lock

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Speaker 2: to go number two, I think if he's there.

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Speaker 3: So for number two, Hutchinson is the favorite at minus

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Speaker 3: two hundred, and Aquanu is plus ten thousand for the

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Speaker 3: number two pick, So.

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Speaker 1: That that's interesting.

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Speaker 3: So like you're kind of alluding to it though, you know,

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Speaker 3: Hutchinson number two, that's kind of a you know, like

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Speaker 3: he's not likely to drop past there. Akwanhu is then

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Speaker 3: plus three ninety to go. You know, number three, Stingley

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Speaker 3: is actually the leader, interestingly enough at plus three thirty.

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Speaker 3: So there are some interesting numbers and I think some

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Speaker 3: ways to kind of take advantage of that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so I would not be betting on Hutchinson at

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Speaker 2: number two at those odds, Like I think it's very likely,

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Speaker 2: but minus two hundred, I'm just I'm not going to

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Speaker 2: go there for the number three pick. I think this

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Speaker 2: is really where the draft starts, kind of like what

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Speaker 2: we had last year with the draft started number three,

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Speaker 2: is it? Mac Jones is at Trey Lance. I think

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Speaker 2: the draft stars here and you could see them going

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Speaker 2: with the Houston Texans at number three. A number of directions.

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Speaker 2: I think it's likeliest they go offensive tackle. I really

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Speaker 2: think it's a coin flip between a Chemic Kwanhu and

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Speaker 2: Evan Neil. I think there's also the chance that they

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Speaker 2: go cornerback, and I prefer a mod Sauce Gardner as

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Speaker 2: the you know, the leader in the clubhouse a house

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Speaker 2: among all the cornerbacks. But Derek Stingley has also seen

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Speaker 2: some pretty serious heat recently as a guy who could

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Speaker 2: go number three. So out of those four right now,

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Speaker 2: I'm on Evan Neil. That's what I have reflected in

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Speaker 2: my mock, and I will probably still be on Evan

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Speaker 2: Neil in my final mock. I think, you know a

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Speaker 2: way of betting this is not so much looking at

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Speaker 2: the number three pick, but betting on the first offensive

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Speaker 2: tackle to be drafted or a first offensive lineman to

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Speaker 2: be drafted. If you look at the market right now

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Speaker 2: at Kimi Kwan who is the favorite. I think think

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Speaker 2: it's a coin toss between Evanil, whether it's at the

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Speaker 2: number three pick the number five pick with the Giants,

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Speaker 2: Icky versus Evan Neil. Really you see that, I think

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Speaker 2: in terms of their evaluations. You see it in the

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Speaker 2: mock drafts. It's straight up a coin flip between those two,

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Speaker 2: and I mean across the market to get anywhere from

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Speaker 2: plus one fifty to plus two hundred odds on Evan

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Speaker 2: Neil to be the first offensive lineman drafted. I think

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Speaker 2: there's significant value there.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and you know, first offensive lineman drafted also likely

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Speaker 3: to be the first offensive player drafted.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so Neil is also plus.

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Speaker 3: Three fifty to be the first offensive player drafted. And

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Speaker 3: then you know, even you know, I know you said

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Speaker 3: you're trying to go for a little kind of more

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Speaker 3: sure thing, but for number three draft pick, Neil is

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Speaker 3: plus you know, he's ten to one, So you know,

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Speaker 3: I actually like the value on that. You know, you're

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Speaker 3: not gonna throw a hole. You know, you're not gonna

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Speaker 3: bet the house on it. But I think those are

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Speaker 3: pretty good compared to Kwander who's at plus three fifty

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Speaker 3: for that number three pick with a lot of other

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Speaker 3: guys mixed in.

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Speaker 2: I like that ten to one Evan Ill, Yeah, I would.

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Speaker 2: I would bet that. In fact, when we're done with this,

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Speaker 2: I'm going to go better. Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's good, great value, all right, And

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Speaker 3: then kind of rounding out that top five is it,

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Speaker 3: you know, is it kind of those same guys that

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Speaker 3: in that discussion. I know the Giants are sitting there

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Speaker 3: at fifth, we know they need to tackle.

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Speaker 1: But I guess for the Jets.

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Speaker 3: It gets interesting because they're sitting there at number four.

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Speaker 3: They also have the tenth pick, and they pretty much

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Speaker 3: have a lot of needs, right, Like, you know, they

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Speaker 3: need a receiver, they need edge, they need corner.

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Speaker 1: God, god do they need a corner.

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Speaker 3: So what do you see the Jets doing at number

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Speaker 3: four and that how is that going to kind of

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Speaker 3: influence you know, how things play out way down the

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Speaker 3: board in the first round.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so you know, as you mentioned, the Jets have

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Speaker 2: picks four and ten. I am very much on Cavon

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Speaker 2: Thibodeau as an option there for the Jets at number four,

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Speaker 2: Like he could have gone number one if some things

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Speaker 2: had broken just a little bit differently in the evaluation process,

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Speaker 2: maybe a different team controls that pick, he could go

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Speaker 2: number one. And so to get someone like him likely

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Speaker 2: to fall down to number four, or who has a

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Speaker 2: reasonable chance of falling to number four, I think that's

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Speaker 2: fantastic value, like a great outcome for the Jets, And

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Speaker 2: I think ultimately it will be either an edge rusher,

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Speaker 2: likely Thibodeaux, or a wide receiver. At number four, I

255
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Speaker 2: lean towards edge rusher pretty strongly. And then at number ten,

256
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Speaker 2: I think they address wide receiver. Whether that's Garrett Wilson,

257
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Speaker 2: who could be the first wide receiver off the board

258
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Speaker 2: at that point, or it's Jamison Williams or even Drake London.

259
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Speaker 2: I think any of those three guys could be the

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Speaker 2: first wide receiver taken and could be the wide receiver

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Speaker 2: who goes to the Jets at number ten. But that

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Speaker 2: is the way that I am leaning right now, breaking

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Speaker 2: those two picks between edge rusher and wide receiver.

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Speaker 1: Do you think? Uh?

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Speaker 3: So, I'm looking at just you know, odds for number four.

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Speaker 3: Thibodeau is the favorite, but it's plusbly in seventy five.

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Speaker 1: So are those two? Are those odds too short or

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Speaker 1: do you think value on that?

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Speaker 2: So? I think I think those odds are too short.

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Speaker 1: Got it all right? Uh?

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Speaker 3: Then number five we have the Giants. Thoughts on what

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Speaker 3: they're gonna do. I think a lot of people think

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Speaker 3: they're going to take you know, which of whichever those

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Speaker 3: tackles you know is not taken by the Texans.

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Speaker 1: Thoughts on that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they have picks five and seven, and you're basically

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Speaker 2: h you know, locking them in across a lot of

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Speaker 2: lock drafts for an offensive tackle in a cornerback.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 2: The interesting thing is the order in which they take

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Speaker 2: them there. I think might be a chance depending on

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Speaker 2: what the Texans do at number three, of course, but

283
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Speaker 2: there might really be a chance that they go with

284
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Speaker 2: Sauce Gardner at number five or whatever cornerback is left.

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Speaker 2: Let's say Stingley goes number three, they take Sauce at

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Speaker 2: number five and then let the Panthers kind of have

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Speaker 2: their shot at whatever offensive tackle is available there and

288
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Speaker 2: then take the remaining guy because they know, at least

289
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Speaker 2: in my opinion, like and this is reported across the league,

290
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Speaker 2: the Panthers are looking to trade down, right, They are

291
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Speaker 2: looking to trade out of the number six pick, and

292
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Speaker 2: one of the few players in this draft that teams

293
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Speaker 2: might be tempted to trade up for would be Sauce

294
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Speaker 2: Gardner if he's available at number six. And so even

295
00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:37,880
Speaker 2: though you just kind of look at this and you think, okay,

296
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Speaker 2: they take the offensive tackle, they let the cornerback go

297
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Speaker 2: because they know that, you know, the Panthers that they

298
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Speaker 2: stay there, they're going to be taking offensive tackle. I

299
00:14:48,280 --> 00:14:51,480
Speaker 2: think there actually is some risk in doing that, because

300
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Speaker 2: you know you're gonna have two offensive tackles available to

301
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Speaker 2: you if you don't take one at number five. If

302
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Speaker 2: you're the Giants, you take your corner back, lock him in,

303
00:15:02,440 --> 00:15:06,200
Speaker 2: and then you take whatever offensive tackle is left to you.

304
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Speaker 2: And in a worst case scenario, it seems that the

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Speaker 2: Giants are pretty high on Charles Cross. If let's say

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Speaker 2: the Texans take an offensive tackle at number three and

307
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Speaker 2: the Panthers taking offensive tackle at number six, the Giants

308
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Speaker 2: can still get Charles Cross at number seven. So I'm

309
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Speaker 2: pretty sure that in my final mock, I will have

310
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Speaker 2: offensive tackle and cornerback, but I'm not exactly sure right

311
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Speaker 2: now the order in which I will have those going.

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Speaker 3: Pe just I want to let you guys know that

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Speaker 1: All right, So you mentioned the panthers and trading down.

340
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Speaker 3: So this is something I do want to spend a

341
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Speaker 3: lot of time, and I think there are a lot

342
00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:12,520
Speaker 3: of interesting angles that we can get from this, and

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Speaker 3: I think it's it's really the thing that can shake

344
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Speaker 3: up the draft. And because it's going to happen, if

345
00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:18,960
Speaker 3: it does happen within you know, the next couple of days,

346
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Speaker 3: it's probably gonna leave some value somewhere on the board,

347
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Speaker 3: you know, for us betting. So you know, what are

348
00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:27,320
Speaker 3: your views on, you know, what the Panthers are going

349
00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:31,080
Speaker 3: to do, and how does that affect the quarterback market

350
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Speaker 3: in the first round in general? Because I know, you know,

351
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Speaker 3: you've always pointed this out and I tend to agree

352
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Speaker 3: it wholeheartedly that the one thing mock drafters tend to do.

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Speaker 1: Is overrate the quarterbacks, like.

354
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Speaker 3: You see, and then the market kind of follows along

355
00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:48,040
Speaker 3: where you see, you know, the quarterbacks pick over under

356
00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:51,080
Speaker 3: a little too high. You see a number of quarterbacks

357
00:17:51,080 --> 00:17:52,879
Speaker 3: taken in the first round a little too high. So

358
00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:55,640
Speaker 3: you know, the Panthers looking to trade down. I guess,

359
00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:57,280
Speaker 3: first of U, is that just a signal that this,

360
00:17:57,760 --> 00:17:59,800
Speaker 3: you know, we're kind of overrating this draft class and

361
00:17:59,840 --> 00:18:01,760
Speaker 3: it you know, teams aren't really looking at it as

362
00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:02,560
Speaker 3: that strong of one.

363
00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:04,600
Speaker 1: And then how is that going to affect how these

364
00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:06,080
Speaker 1: things play out? Yeah?

365
00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:09,040
Speaker 2: I think you see it not so much in the

366
00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:11,920
Speaker 2: market where the number has moved from two and a

367
00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:15,280
Speaker 2: half to three and a half quarterbacks for round one

368
00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:18,400
Speaker 2: and most sportsbooks, but you do see it reflected in

369
00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:21,639
Speaker 2: a lot of the Sharper mock drafts. You know, seven

370
00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:24,359
Speaker 2: to ten days ago, it wasn't uncommon to see a

371
00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:28,680
Speaker 2: quarterback mocked to the Panthers at number six, and in

372
00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:33,040
Speaker 2: the super majority of recent sharp mocks now it's an

373
00:18:33,080 --> 00:18:37,200
Speaker 2: offensive tackle, and so in many of them you are

374
00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:39,960
Speaker 2: not seeing a quarterback go in the top ten, which

375
00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:42,720
Speaker 2: is like one of the most damning things that the

376
00:18:42,840 --> 00:18:46,720
Speaker 2: NFL could say about a quarterback class, not taking one

377
00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:49,360
Speaker 2: in the top ten. Like the last time that happened

378
00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:52,760
Speaker 2: that was the EJ Manual year like twenty thirteen, and

379
00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:55,720
Speaker 2: he was the only quarterback to go in Round one,

380
00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:58,840
Speaker 2: even though a lot of people thought Geno Smith would

381
00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:01,840
Speaker 2: go in Round one. This is a bad class, like

382
00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:05,840
Speaker 2: I will just flat out say it, Like I think

383
00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:09,000
Speaker 2: within NFL history it's not a good class. But especially

384
00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:12,359
Speaker 2: looking at this class compared to recent history, it's not

385
00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:15,520
Speaker 2: a good class. We had five quarterbacks go off a

386
00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:18,400
Speaker 2: board in round one last year. I think all five

387
00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:21,400
Speaker 2: of those guys would be ahead of Malik Willis this year,

388
00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:24,240
Speaker 2: who I have is the number one quarterback, and just

389
00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:27,040
Speaker 2: a few years before that, we had five quarterbacks go

390
00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:31,240
Speaker 2: in the Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson draft in

391
00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:34,679
Speaker 2: round one. You just look at this class compared to

392
00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:37,520
Speaker 2: some of the other classes we've recently seen. It just

393
00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:40,359
Speaker 2: does not stack up at all. And that doesn't mean

394
00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:43,000
Speaker 2: that we won't see one of these guys become a

395
00:19:43,119 --> 00:19:47,440
Speaker 2: legitimate NFL starter, maybe a superstar. You know, Malik Willis

396
00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:50,840
Speaker 2: does have a lot of intriguing attributes. Can you pick it?

397
00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:53,280
Speaker 2: I think has a fairly high floor, like he might

398
00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:57,040
Speaker 2: be the most NFL ready of the quarterbacks in this class.

399
00:19:57,200 --> 00:20:00,960
Speaker 2: But overall, it is an underwhelming class. Not surprise me

400
00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:04,840
Speaker 2: if the first quarterback we see actually is going to

401
00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:09,440
Speaker 2: the Steelers at number twenty. So I'm totally hands off

402
00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:13,320
Speaker 2: on the quarterbacks. I'm looking to fade them at their

403
00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:16,600
Speaker 2: current numbers. The number three and a half, I am

404
00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:20,840
Speaker 2: well under that. You know, three is what you generally

405
00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:24,200
Speaker 2: see is the consensus in mock drafts. I am strongly

406
00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:27,359
Speaker 2: considering having only two in my final mock draft.

407
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:31,040
Speaker 3: I love that because I was just about to mention

408
00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:33,280
Speaker 3: that you know, where I was, where I was looking

409
00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:34,800
Speaker 3: to bet these things was, yeah, you can get the

410
00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:37,560
Speaker 3: under three and a half a little bit juiced up,

411
00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:40,800
Speaker 3: but if you're looking to get better odds, you can

412
00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:43,080
Speaker 3: actually bet under two and a half and you can

413
00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:46,720
Speaker 3: get about plus one ninety, which I think is long enough.

414
00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:49,960
Speaker 3: And you actually had a tweet out and you probably

415
00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:51,359
Speaker 3: sh it in your mock draft as well.

416
00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:52,720
Speaker 1: But you know when.

417
00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:55,880
Speaker 3: Quarterbacks don't when any when no quarterbacks going to top five,

418
00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:59,320
Speaker 3: it's happening. I believe eleven times since nineteen eighty there's

419
00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:02,320
Speaker 3: never been more than two to go in the first round.

420
00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:03,560
Speaker 1: Because that's kind of how.

421
00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:05,960
Speaker 3: The It kind of shows you how these teams have

422
00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:09,800
Speaker 3: these quarterbacks rated overall, and I think it only increases

423
00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:13,560
Speaker 3: those odds because unexpectedly we still have these quarterbacks kind

424
00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:16,480
Speaker 3: of lingering in no man's land, like Jimmy g and

425
00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:20,399
Speaker 3: Baker Mayfield and like so the quarterback market like there

426
00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:23,080
Speaker 3: doesn't seem to be any urgency this year when you

427
00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:25,439
Speaker 3: take those two things in mind. So I'm on the

428
00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:28,439
Speaker 3: same page that you you mentioned you're fading the unders,

429
00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:31,880
Speaker 3: You're going I mean with the over technically, Yeah, from

430
00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:34,679
Speaker 3: Milik Willis, So he's around thirteen and a half and

431
00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:37,720
Speaker 3: then Pickets around sixteen and a half, and the Steelers

432
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:39,360
Speaker 3: are picking what is it, twentieth I.

433
00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:41,800
Speaker 2: Got those at far better numbers, but I would still

434
00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:44,359
Speaker 2: bet those. I think there's still plenty of value in

435
00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:48,000
Speaker 2: those numbers. Based on the sentiment of the mocks that

436
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:50,960
Speaker 2: I'm looking at and based on just you know, kind

437
00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:55,760
Speaker 2: of what you are reading from NFL insiders, this just

438
00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:59,040
Speaker 2: very much seems to be a down year for quarterbacks.

439
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:03,440
Speaker 1: Any thoughts on will Is to the Steelers at plus

440
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:04,919
Speaker 1: three hundred? You know that? Is that?

441
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 3: Is that kind of maybe twenty five percent? That kind

442
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:09,320
Speaker 3: of where you peg it? Or do you think it's

443
00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:10,240
Speaker 3: a little bit higher than that?

444
00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:13,720
Speaker 2: If Willis is three to one, yes, I am betting that.

445
00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:16,879
Speaker 2: There you go, absolutely too. Yeah.

446
00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:19,680
Speaker 3: Any thoughts on if there was to be a third

447
00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:22,439
Speaker 3: guy taking real quick? You know, is it ridder for you?

448
00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 1: Is it? You know? Who is that? Who would be

449
00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:25,120
Speaker 1: that fair guy?

450
00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:27,720
Speaker 2: Okay, So this is where we start to get into

451
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:30,639
Speaker 2: sort of like reading of the tea leaves, and I

452
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:34,119
Speaker 2: have conflicting signals on this, I you know, just based

453
00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:37,159
Speaker 2: on mock drafts, I would say it's Ritter, Like pretty

454
00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:43,040
Speaker 2: strongly I would go with Ritdter, and I think that, uh,

455
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,560
Speaker 2: you know you you've also gotten some like very good

456
00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:48,159
Speaker 2: buzz on him, you know, like people you know, like

457
00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:51,120
Speaker 2: Todd McShay, different people like that, talking about how he's

458
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:55,920
Speaker 2: moving up draft boards for different organizations. The thing is,

459
00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:01,479
Speaker 2: I don't think he was invited to the draft, you know,

460
00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:06,080
Speaker 2: like Pickett isn't going, but his agent was sure like

461
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:09,320
Speaker 2: immediately to put out a statement saying he chose not

462
00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:12,200
Speaker 2: to go. Right there is like a puff piece about

463
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:14,760
Speaker 2: how he would rather be at home with his family.

464
00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:18,160
Speaker 2: Nothing like that for Desmond Ritter. I don't think Ritter

465
00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:20,840
Speaker 2: was invited to the draft. And if a quarterback is

466
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:23,959
Speaker 2: not invited to Day one of the draft, like that

467
00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:26,400
Speaker 2: is a that is a bad sign, Like it is

468
00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:29,720
Speaker 2: unlikely that he goes on Day one if he hasn't

469
00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:33,959
Speaker 2: been invited. And Matt Correll was invited to the draft.

470
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:37,480
Speaker 2: Now there are you know, issues with Corral in terms

471
00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:40,159
Speaker 2: of you know, off the field maturity. That's something that

472
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:43,080
Speaker 2: you know, you've heard about from different talking heads in

473
00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:45,800
Speaker 2: the media. And then also he's just a smaller guy

474
00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:48,400
Speaker 2: and so that is something that could also keep him

475
00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:51,679
Speaker 2: out of round one. Just because Corral is there in

476
00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:55,119
Speaker 2: person doesn't mean he actually goes on day one of

477
00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:57,840
Speaker 2: the draft. Like we have seen quarterbacks fall out of

478
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 2: Day one even though they're there in person. So if

479
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 2: I have to choose one of them, like the numbers

480
00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:08,919
Speaker 2: point me towards Ritter, but I'm just I'm skeptical that

481
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 2: he actually would.

482
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:14,240
Speaker 3: Be the guy I would jump over from quarterback to

483
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:16,280
Speaker 3: receiver because I think this you know, kind of con

484
00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:19,399
Speaker 3: continuing our conversation of just going down the board, I

485
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:21,640
Speaker 3: think once you get to the Falcons at number eight,

486
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:28,240
Speaker 3: that's really when this first receiver comes into play. Do

487
00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 3: you have the Falcons going wide receiver at number eight

488
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:33,639
Speaker 3: their roster? I mean, they could go a lot of ways,

489
00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:34,919
Speaker 3: but I mean, wow, their.

490
00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:39,160
Speaker 1: Wide receiver roster depth. Try to just yuck. So, yeah,

491
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:40,360
Speaker 1: what are the Falcons doing?

492
00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:43,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's horrible. I do have them going wide receiver,

493
00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 2: and I have Garrett Wilson as the number one receiver

494
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:50,040
Speaker 2: on my board. You know, in part that's because of

495
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:51,919
Speaker 2: what you see in the betting market. Part of that

496
00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:54,920
Speaker 2: is because it's reflected in the mock drafts, and part

497
00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 2: of it is just because I mean, I really do

498
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:01,679
Speaker 2: have him as the number one wide receiver. You know,

499
00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 2: he's he's very clean, he's young, he's an early declare,

500
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:10,240
Speaker 2: he's got great speed, like there are a lot of

501
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 2: things to like about him. He was a four four

502
00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 2: and a half five star recruit entering college, so I

503
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:20,359
Speaker 2: can see why he would be the number one wide

504
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:23,640
Speaker 2: receiver drafted. Now, if it is Drake London, that wouldn't

505
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:26,920
Speaker 2: be a surprise. You know, he's got like the size

506
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:30,040
Speaker 2: that a lot of teams seem to covet. And then

507
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 2: Jamison Williams, it wouldn't be a surprise either. If not

508
00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 2: for the ACL, he would be the number one guy

509
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:39,000
Speaker 2: on my board. And you know, there are reports that

510
00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:43,960
Speaker 2: he's rehabbing very well, potentially could be ready for the

511
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:47,320
Speaker 2: start of the season. And as you see reports like that,

512
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:52,440
Speaker 2: he moves up the betting market. So I am interested

513
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 2: in those two guys, But right now, Garrett Wilson is

514
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:58,280
Speaker 2: the number one wide receiver I think in the NFL draft.

515
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:01,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, it seems like there's pretty clear kind of hierarchy

516
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:04,360
Speaker 3: at least at this point where it's like Wilson Williams

517
00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:07,040
Speaker 3: in London in that in that first tier and then

518
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:10,480
Speaker 3: it's like a lave treylon burks in that second tier,

519
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:13,880
Speaker 3: and then you start branching. Now, how are you kind

520
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:17,639
Speaker 3: of attacking the betting market at wide receiver given you

521
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:19,560
Speaker 3: know how you're marketing where and where do you think

522
00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:20,399
Speaker 3: these guys are going to go?

523
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:25,919
Speaker 2: So the number right now for wide receivers going in

524
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:29,640
Speaker 2: round one, I believe that is six and a half. Yes,

525
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:33,160
Speaker 2: at most books. At one point earlier in the process,

526
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:35,359
Speaker 2: it was five and a half, which was just like

527
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 2: hammer hammer the over, absolutely, hammer the over at six

528
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:42,919
Speaker 2: and a half, Like, I think it's more reasonable, like

529
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:46,639
Speaker 2: that is probably the right number, and so I'm not

530
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 2: going to be betting the total there for wide receivers,

531
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 2: but I do feel pretty strong that we see six.

532
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:59,920
Speaker 2: But uh, you know, I don't really have a lean

533
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:03,160
Speaker 2: on any of the over unders the draft position over

534
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 2: unders for a lot of the players, because like that

535
00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:09,719
Speaker 2: has been the market that people have been most invested in. Actually,

536
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:13,399
Speaker 2: I will say there is one, it's further down the board.

537
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:15,520
Speaker 1: I feel very.

538
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 2: Strongly we see five, and the five that we see,

539
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 2: like you mentioned them, that's clear. But the sixth wide

540
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:26,120
Speaker 2: receiver could be like one of four different guys there

541
00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 2: could we could even see seven and still just two

542
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:32,560
Speaker 2: of those four guys, So you know, Johan Dotson, Christian Watson,

543
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:36,800
Speaker 2: maybe sky Moore, George Pickens has gotten a lot of

544
00:27:36,800 --> 00:27:40,879
Speaker 2: steam recently. But I like some of the unders for

545
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:45,080
Speaker 2: those guys like Johan Dotson, you know, thirty two and

546
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 2: a half, thirty three and a half, depending on the

547
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 2: number that you see out there at the book. He's

548
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:55,480
Speaker 2: someone I would think about taking the over four because

549
00:27:57,600 --> 00:27:59,360
Speaker 2: was I saying unders or overs.

550
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:01,920
Speaker 1: Before saying so? Under means like it will earlier.

551
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:04,119
Speaker 3: Over means they'll go later, get to the point that

552
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 3: everyone out and it does get confusing.

553
00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:07,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would be looking at some of the overs

554
00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:10,760
Speaker 2: for those guys. So Johan Dotson is someone like I

555
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:13,800
Speaker 2: think he's on that round one round two borderline, and

556
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:15,800
Speaker 2: I was able to get him earlier at thirty two

557
00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 2: and a half at plus odds on the over. So

558
00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:23,080
Speaker 2: someone one of these wide receivers is going to go

559
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:26,240
Speaker 2: in round one, but I think it's hard to say

560
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:29,520
Speaker 2: exactly which one it is, and if you can find

561
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:32,760
Speaker 2: reasonable numbers on some of those guys, I would be

562
00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:33,680
Speaker 2: looking at overs.

563
00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think one of them. You know, you know,

564
00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 3: we're going back to Wilson and Williams. I think because

565
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:42,720
Speaker 3: of the injury to Williams. I think Wilson is that

566
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 3: clear kind of you know choice London. Maybe he goes

567
00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:48,800
Speaker 3: over Williams as well. I think he's less of a

568
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:50,880
Speaker 3: threat to Wilson. So I don't know, I like, I

569
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:53,800
Speaker 3: kind of like Wilson over Williams. At minus one forty,

570
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 3: I think, I don't. I just don't think a team

571
00:28:56,360 --> 00:29:00,280
Speaker 3: will take Williams give any injury number one anymore. So

572
00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:03,800
Speaker 3: you know, I'm pretty comfortable with that. But any thoughts

573
00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:04,400
Speaker 3: on that one?

574
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:09,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, so minus one forty that what are the implied

575
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:10,520
Speaker 2: odds there?

576
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:13,280
Speaker 1: That's about? Yeah?

577
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, yeah, I like that. I think there's some

578
00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 2: pretty good value there. I think Williams is going ahead

579
00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 2: of Wilson in maybe twenty five percent of sharp boks. Yeah,

580
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 2: so I think there's significant value at that number.

581
00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:34,720
Speaker 3: All right, what about the you know, going down the

582
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:36,479
Speaker 3: bord a little more the rest of round one? I

583
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 3: know that's really you know, as your mock and that's

584
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:41,960
Speaker 3: really what you're focused on. You're you're trying to nail

585
00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:45,720
Speaker 3: as many of the players that are going to land

586
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:49,520
Speaker 3: in round one as possible, and that it really starts

587
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:52,360
Speaker 3: to open up in terms of, you know, the range

588
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:54,440
Speaker 3: of outcomes once you get outside that those top ten

589
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 3: picks and down to that you know, lower two thirds

590
00:29:57,400 --> 00:29:58,120
Speaker 3: of the draft.

591
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:00,760
Speaker 1: So what are some your kind of.

592
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:04,440
Speaker 3: Takes that maybe don't quite agree with the market in

593
00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:06,400
Speaker 3: terms of how the rest of this thing is going

594
00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:06,960
Speaker 3: to play out.

595
00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:10,360
Speaker 2: One guy who stands out to me is Tyler Linderbaum,

596
00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:14,080
Speaker 2: who I think is one of the most talented players

597
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:16,720
Speaker 2: overall in this class if you're just kind of looking

598
00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:21,160
Speaker 2: at raw ability, arguably top five, you know, like I

599
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:24,880
Speaker 2: think in terms of talent, he should go in the

600
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:28,440
Speaker 2: first round. But he's got the smaller arms of their

601
00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:32,120
Speaker 2: shorter arms. He is a little undersized, so it means

602
00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:35,440
Speaker 2: that he's kind of a center, only he probably can't

603
00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:40,200
Speaker 2: play guard. And there aren't all that many teams his

604
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 2: number is twenty seven and a half. There aren't all

605
00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 2: that many teams in the top twenty seven that really

606
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 2: need a center. And so even though he is a

607
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 2: first round talent, I could see him falling out of

608
00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:57,239
Speaker 2: the first round. And even if he doesn't, even if

609
00:30:57,280 --> 00:31:01,280
Speaker 2: he goes at the bottom of round one. Cincinnati at

610
00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 2: thirty one, like that would be a very clean landing spot.

611
00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 2: And when he is mocked in round one, that is

612
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:12,880
Speaker 2: like almost certainly where you see him. But in eighty

613
00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 2: eight percent of the sharp mocks that I've indexed, he's

614
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:20,640
Speaker 2: going over twenty seven and a half. And so you know, Linderbaum,

615
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:23,880
Speaker 2: great player, but he might fall out of round one,

616
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:26,720
Speaker 2: and I think there's a very very good chance he

617
00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:30,880
Speaker 2: hits the over on twenty seven and a half.

618
00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:33,920
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Speaker 1: All right, now back to the show. We talked about quarterbacks,

647
00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:25,160
Speaker 1: we talked about wide receivers.

648
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:27,400
Speaker 3: So you know, I know, you know, fantasy is also

649
00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 3: a big kind of thing that we do.

650
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:31,840
Speaker 1: So I wanted to talk about the other two skill positions.

651
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 1: Let's start on running.

652
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:36,680
Speaker 3: Back because you know nowadays, these teams they're a little

653
00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:39,760
Speaker 3: bit smarter, you know, they're not really looking to draft

654
00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 3: these backs with high draft capital. The team I keep

655
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:45,720
Speaker 3: hearing that maybe in the market for a running back

656
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:48,880
Speaker 3: in the first round is the Buffalo Bills. I'm not

657
00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:52,240
Speaker 3: really buying it. I still think they would rather go

658
00:33:52,280 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 3: with a cornerback. But what are your thoughts on number one,

659
00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:58,600
Speaker 3: if the Bills are would be a team to actually

660
00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:01,120
Speaker 3: do that? And number two, just on this running back

661
00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:03,040
Speaker 3: class in general, is there anyone that's going to go

662
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 3: in the first round? Are you, Bree hall Over, Kenneth Walker,

663
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 3: give me your thoughts on just this running back class. Yeah.

664
00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:10,759
Speaker 2: A bet that I really do like is under zero

665
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:13,719
Speaker 2: point five running backs in round one. And you know

666
00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:16,200
Speaker 2: the number that I first grabbed on that I think

667
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:19,279
Speaker 2: was minus one seventy. I think you can still get

668
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:23,319
Speaker 2: that around minus two hundred. As Raymond would say, bet

669
00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:28,279
Speaker 2: it to oblivion, like it's just better to it does

670
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:31,400
Speaker 2: it does not matter? And I like, you know, the

671
00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:35,600
Speaker 2: football gods blessed Daniel Jeremiah, you know, because he's the

672
00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:38,480
Speaker 2: one who really got this started and it created value

673
00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:40,600
Speaker 2: for people who want to bet the under and that's

674
00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:43,439
Speaker 2: not to like mock Daniel Jeremiah or anything like who

675
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:47,840
Speaker 2: is an insider like he does offer. I think great analysis,

676
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:51,240
Speaker 2: great context around what teams are thinking for the draft,

677
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:54,920
Speaker 2: and so I don't question that the Buffalo Bills have

678
00:34:55,160 --> 00:34:58,640
Speaker 2: an actual interest in bris Hall like I'm sure they do.

679
00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:01,520
Speaker 2: He would be a great player within their system. I

680
00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:03,640
Speaker 2: just don't think they're going to draft him in round one.

681
00:35:04,560 --> 00:35:08,680
Speaker 2: But you know, in his second mock, he put Bristol

682
00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:11,880
Speaker 2: going to the Buffalo Bills in round one, and people

683
00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:14,000
Speaker 2: see that and then they bet it, and it creates

684
00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:16,279
Speaker 2: value for the people who want to bet against it.

685
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 2: I think that there is a fifteen percent chance or

686
00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:23,080
Speaker 2: so that we see a running back in round one,

687
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:26,640
Speaker 2: and if it happens, is almost certainly Breese Hall. I

688
00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:28,640
Speaker 2: don't think it would be Kenneth Walker.

689
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:29,600
Speaker 1: Hall is.

690
00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 2: I think the more well rounded player he's got that

691
00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:36,240
Speaker 2: three down skill set, Walker might be the better pure runner,

692
00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:38,960
Speaker 2: you know, and sort of like that Nick Chubb mold,

693
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:41,560
Speaker 2: but I don't think that's going to get him drafted

694
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:44,080
Speaker 2: ahead of Breese Hall. But either way, I don't think

695
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:45,799
Speaker 2: either of those guys goes in round one.

696
00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:48,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love that pick.

697
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:50,480
Speaker 3: You know, you can get it about minus two hundred

698
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:53,839
Speaker 3: under a half of running back drafted in round one,

699
00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:57,760
Speaker 3: and you know, looking at NFL mock draft database dot com,

700
00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:01,360
Speaker 3: you kind of mentioned that fifteen percent for fifteen percent,

701
00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:04,800
Speaker 3: fifteen point four percent to be exact, is Breese Hall's

702
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:07,919
Speaker 3: likelihood based on the amount of you know, the mocks

703
00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:10,120
Speaker 3: that they have in their database of him going in

704
00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:13,760
Speaker 3: round one. Kennis Walker the third seven and a half percent.

705
00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:16,680
Speaker 3: So you know, even if you add those together, you're

706
00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:17,399
Speaker 3: still you.

707
00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:18,920
Speaker 1: Know, under twenty five percent.

708
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:20,400
Speaker 3: So I think there's a lot of value at that

709
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:22,720
Speaker 3: minus two hundred numbers, as you mentioned. And then even

710
00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:26,120
Speaker 3: just reading the tea leaves of the market, Uh, looking

711
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:29,920
Speaker 3: at the Bills odds for first position drafted, it's defensive

712
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:32,719
Speaker 3: back first that plus one fifty and running back at

713
00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:35,080
Speaker 3: plus three fifty. So like, if the Bills aren't doing it,

714
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:38,000
Speaker 3: I really don't see another team that's a serious threat,

715
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:41,120
Speaker 3: just based on team needs and just kind of ranked,

716
00:36:41,120 --> 00:36:43,839
Speaker 3: you know, big board rankings of where this running back

717
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:44,760
Speaker 3: would would come from.

718
00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:49,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, look you said plus one fifty for defensive back. Yes,

719
00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:52,719
Speaker 2: I think there's great value on that. I would bet

720
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:56,120
Speaker 2: that I would bet that because what you see in

721
00:36:56,440 --> 00:36:59,680
Speaker 2: over half of the drafts out there, the sharp mocks

722
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:04,000
Speaker 2: out there going cornerback, and then safety on top of

723
00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:07,080
Speaker 2: that is also added in, and you see them going

724
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:11,719
Speaker 2: safety in like sixteen percent of the sharp marks out there.

725
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:14,879
Speaker 2: So I think there's pretty good value there. I would

726
00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:17,360
Speaker 2: I would bet that plus one fifty. Yeah.

727
00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:19,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I mean plus you know, they're probably still

728
00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:21,560
Speaker 3: traumatized from what happened in the playoffs. It's like they

729
00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:23,560
Speaker 3: didn't need a running like, you know, if the running

730
00:37:23,560 --> 00:37:26,720
Speaker 3: back didn't lose them the game, you know, against the Chiefs.

731
00:37:26,719 --> 00:37:35,000
Speaker 2: So yeah, yeah, I mean Levi Wallace is gone, Trudavious

732
00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:38,600
Speaker 2: White has the torn acl like they need they need

733
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:40,440
Speaker 2: another body in that secondary.

734
00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:44,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're the favorite in the AFC, but I mean

735
00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:46,640
Speaker 3: the Afcason Arms race right now in terms of all

736
00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:49,759
Speaker 3: these you know, Wagger Stevers going over there and quarterbacks.

737
00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:51,080
Speaker 1: So yeah, it would be hard to.

738
00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:54,640
Speaker 3: It would be hard to imagine they don't address that

739
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:56,719
Speaker 3: defensive backfield, particularly cornerback.

740
00:37:57,000 --> 00:37:59,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, and then tight ends.

741
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:04,360
Speaker 3: I mean, is this so the books actually posted a

742
00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:08,359
Speaker 3: number for first round tight ends. And it's funny because

743
00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:11,200
Speaker 3: talking about bett something to any juice it's actually minus

744
00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:13,760
Speaker 3: seven sixty right now, and there's probably still.

745
00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:14,399
Speaker 1: Value on that.

746
00:38:16,280 --> 00:38:18,320
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, it seemed like t is it

747
00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:21,480
Speaker 3: treyment Briane for you is number one, and you don't

748
00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:22,839
Speaker 3: have them going anywhere near round one.

749
00:38:23,239 --> 00:38:27,640
Speaker 2: If no, I haven't hear the end of round two. Yeah, yeah,

750
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:30,399
Speaker 2: looking at the tight end class like it just sort

751
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:32,319
Speaker 2: of draw And we talked about running back before this.

752
00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:36,680
Speaker 2: Those two positions drive home the difference between this year's

753
00:38:36,680 --> 00:38:40,600
Speaker 2: class in last year's class. I mean, last year we

754
00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:43,440
Speaker 2: had Kyle Pitts, like greatest tight end prospect of all

755
00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:46,839
Speaker 2: time going number four. This year we probably I mean

756
00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:49,960
Speaker 2: almost certainly, and I'm with you, minus seven sixty whatever,

757
00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:52,879
Speaker 2: make it minus one thousand, minus two thousand, it doesn't matter.

758
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:54,719
Speaker 2: I would probably bet it that we do not have

759
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:57,359
Speaker 2: a tight end in round one. Last year we had

760
00:38:57,400 --> 00:39:00,320
Speaker 2: two running backs in round one, you know, Nausea Hears

761
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:04,160
Speaker 2: and Travis etn. This year, almost certainly we don't get

762
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:07,640
Speaker 2: a running back in round one. There's just a difference

763
00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:11,480
Speaker 2: in the quality of the prospects and the two classes,

764
00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:15,080
Speaker 2: and then that is translating into the excitement that a

765
00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:18,320
Speaker 2: lot of people have or don't have about this year's draft,

766
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:21,600
Speaker 2: and I think that in turn is tying into or

767
00:39:21,760 --> 00:39:25,400
Speaker 2: maybe it's correlated with what we're seeing in the prop market,

768
00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 2: Like there isn't as much action on props this year

769
00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:32,400
Speaker 2: as we saw last year. And some of that is

770
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:35,800
Speaker 2: because the books didn't put out as many props early

771
00:39:35,840 --> 00:39:39,279
Speaker 2: in the process relatives to last year, because they got

772
00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:42,960
Speaker 2: killed on the NFL Draft last year, right, And so

773
00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:45,640
Speaker 2: I think part of it is protection they don't want

774
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:47,920
Speaker 2: to put as many props out, but part of it

775
00:39:47,960 --> 00:39:50,880
Speaker 2: is just like there's not as much interest in the draft.

776
00:39:51,200 --> 00:39:54,520
Speaker 2: Like last year we had six weeks NonStop of who's

777
00:39:54,520 --> 00:39:58,920
Speaker 2: going number three? You know, and you know, Jamar Chase

778
00:39:59,000 --> 00:40:02,120
Speaker 2: and Kyle Pitt's like, we don't have anything like that

779
00:40:02,280 --> 00:40:02,719
Speaker 2: this year.

780
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:04,080
Speaker 1: Yeah.

781
00:40:04,080 --> 00:40:06,520
Speaker 3: Absolutely, it's a little bit of a wet down draft.

782
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:08,920
Speaker 3: But we'll still be betting it. At least we will.

783
00:40:09,000 --> 00:40:10,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, don't know, I mean, yeah, I betting it.

784
00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:14,880
Speaker 1: But okay, so we kind of went through everything.

785
00:40:15,160 --> 00:40:17,560
Speaker 3: Is there anything else you know that you wanted to

786
00:40:17,600 --> 00:40:19,560
Speaker 3: kind of mention before, you know, before we get out

787
00:40:19,600 --> 00:40:21,440
Speaker 3: of here in terms of bets, So just kind of

788
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:23,759
Speaker 3: takes you have on a first round or anything like that.

789
00:40:24,280 --> 00:40:29,560
Speaker 2: Yeah. So I've recently published a five best bets waterfulm

790
00:40:29,640 --> 00:40:32,520
Speaker 2: Tyler Linderbaum over twenty seven and a half. I mentioned

791
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:36,080
Speaker 2: that Canny Pickett, the number that I bet was twelve

792
00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:37,759
Speaker 2: and a half. I think you said it moved up

793
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:40,719
Speaker 2: to sixteen and a half. Yeah, doesn't matter. Still, I

794
00:40:40,760 --> 00:40:43,840
Speaker 2: would still bet it at sixteen and a half. Three

795
00:40:43,880 --> 00:40:47,200
Speaker 2: of the other bets that I really do like sky Moore,

796
00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 2: one of the wide receivers I mentioned earlier, I would

797
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:52,880
Speaker 2: bet over thirty five and a half and this number

798
00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:56,400
Speaker 2: was it DraftKings I love more like he's a really

799
00:40:56,480 --> 00:41:00,080
Speaker 2: intriguing player, but his expected draft position at grind I

800
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:03,280
Speaker 2: mean the mocks is forty six point two. Uh, he's

801
00:41:03,360 --> 00:41:07,560
Speaker 2: forty nine in the NFL mock draft database consensus big board.

802
00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:12,080
Speaker 2: I mean, he's got a slight chance of sneaking into

803
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:15,400
Speaker 2: Round one, but it is very slight. And for a

804
00:41:15,400 --> 00:41:18,840
Speaker 2: guy who has almost no real round one hype to

805
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:22,560
Speaker 2: have to get into the top three of round two, like,

806
00:41:22,680 --> 00:41:25,840
Speaker 2: that's just too much. So I see pretty significant value

807
00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:28,480
Speaker 2: of the over thirty five and a half, Raybond. I

808
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:30,520
Speaker 2: don't know if you have thoughts on sky Moore as

809
00:41:30,560 --> 00:41:33,319
Speaker 2: a prospect, and then that number of thirty five and

810
00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:33,720
Speaker 2: a half.

811
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:36,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I actually I'm kind of with you, Like I

812
00:41:36,680 --> 00:41:39,280
Speaker 3: like more. And it's just that when I start looking

813
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:42,200
Speaker 3: at the teams that would be draft because again, I

814
00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:44,800
Speaker 3: still think that top five is pretty set in stone

815
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:47,680
Speaker 3: in some order. So you know, I think more. You know,

816
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:50,239
Speaker 3: it starts coming into the and play at six, and

817
00:41:50,320 --> 00:41:51,920
Speaker 3: I just look at the teams down there, and I

818
00:41:52,000 --> 00:41:55,000
Speaker 3: just don't see one that would want more over some

819
00:41:55,040 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 3: of the other guys on the board.

820
00:41:56,680 --> 00:41:57,680
Speaker 1: It's just the fit.

821
00:41:57,840 --> 00:41:59,759
Speaker 3: I don't think, you know, is there you know, for

822
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:02,560
Speaker 3: him at those spots. So like I think Green Bay needs,

823
00:42:02,560 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 3: you know, a bigger, more like an outside guy.

824
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:06,000
Speaker 1: I think Kansas City, I think.

825
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:08,000
Speaker 3: Wants more of like a you know, like a Dotson

826
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:08,680
Speaker 3: type of player.

827
00:42:09,200 --> 00:42:12,359
Speaker 1: So that's kind of why I'm with you.

828
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:14,880
Speaker 3: I think that it's more likely that he goes somewhere,

829
00:42:14,880 --> 00:42:17,120
Speaker 3: you know, in the forties, then climbs up in a

830
00:42:17,160 --> 00:42:19,520
Speaker 3: round one, or you know, goes you know, in those

831
00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:20,920
Speaker 3: first few picks of round two.

832
00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:25,439
Speaker 2: H and then another wide receiver. I'm looking at John

833
00:42:25,520 --> 00:42:28,560
Speaker 2: Metchi over fifty six and a half, and I bet

834
00:42:28,560 --> 00:42:31,680
Speaker 2: this is Steezers at plus one ten no, Mechi has

835
00:42:31,719 --> 00:42:34,840
Speaker 2: a sixty three expected draft position. At grinding the mocks,

836
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:37,719
Speaker 2: I have him going number seventy four to the Falcons

837
00:42:37,760 --> 00:42:40,239
Speaker 2: in my most recent mocks. You know, he's coming off

838
00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:42,839
Speaker 2: of that ACL injury, so he wasn't able to run

839
00:42:42,840 --> 00:42:45,000
Speaker 2: at the combine. I think if he had been able

840
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:47,640
Speaker 2: to run, maybe he'd be going around one. You know,

841
00:42:47,880 --> 00:42:50,600
Speaker 2: I think he would have blazed at the collin But

842
00:42:51,760 --> 00:42:54,520
Speaker 2: the ACL injury and then the fact that he was

843
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:58,400
Speaker 2: never the number one wide receiver at Alabama like that

844
00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:01,200
Speaker 2: is just something that it seems that, you know, draft

845
00:43:01,280 --> 00:43:04,879
Speaker 2: knicks have held against him. And even though I don't

846
00:43:04,880 --> 00:43:08,600
Speaker 2: think that's really reflective of the overall skill that he has,

847
00:43:09,000 --> 00:43:11,840
Speaker 2: I do think that that will impact the evaluation of

848
00:43:11,920 --> 00:43:14,960
Speaker 2: him and you know, as a result, impact where he

849
00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:17,400
Speaker 2: goes in the draft. So I do like John Matchi

850
00:43:17,560 --> 00:43:20,400
Speaker 2: over fifty six and a half. So the last one,

851
00:43:20,640 --> 00:43:23,640
Speaker 2: last one I have here Quay Walker over thirty eight

852
00:43:23,680 --> 00:43:26,440
Speaker 2: and a half off ball linebacker. It's just not a

853
00:43:26,480 --> 00:43:29,200
Speaker 2: priority for most teams picking in the top eight of

854
00:43:29,280 --> 00:43:32,439
Speaker 2: round two. And you know, Walker is number forty one

855
00:43:32,640 --> 00:43:35,280
Speaker 2: in my most recent mock draft forty two point six.

856
00:43:35,480 --> 00:43:39,960
Speaker 2: Grinding the Monks fifty two on a ref Hassan's Consensus

857
00:43:39,960 --> 00:43:44,279
Speaker 2: big board and fifty six on the NFL Mock Draft

858
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:47,719
Speaker 2: Database Consensus big Board. So I think there's some value here.

859
00:43:48,640 --> 00:43:51,920
Speaker 2: You know, when Day two starts, it's possible that we

860
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:56,200
Speaker 2: still see Nikobe Dean on the board along with Kuay Walker,

861
00:43:56,280 --> 00:43:59,400
Speaker 2: and so Dean potentially could go ahead of Walker and

862
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:01,439
Speaker 2: push him down the board a little bit. So over

863
00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:03,120
Speaker 2: thirty eight and a half is a number that I

864
00:44:03,160 --> 00:44:04,320
Speaker 2: think offers value.

865
00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:07,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, does seem, Mike like like some great value?

866
00:44:08,000 --> 00:44:11,560
Speaker 3: Well, all right, man, that that was great, Matthew, thanks

867
00:44:11,600 --> 00:44:14,520
Speaker 3: for joining me. It's good to good to get back

868
00:44:14,560 --> 00:44:17,640
Speaker 3: to it and talk some football with you. Be sure

869
00:44:17,640 --> 00:44:20,080
Speaker 3: to let us know where you're at, where people can

870
00:44:20,120 --> 00:44:22,359
Speaker 3: find you and when that when that final Mack's coming out.

871
00:44:22,760 --> 00:44:25,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, So you can follow me on Twitter at Matt

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00:44:25,080 --> 00:44:28,560
Speaker 2: f the Oracle, I mean, obviously a great Twitter handle

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00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:32,600
Speaker 2: if ever there was one. I said that ironically of course. Uh,

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00:44:32,840 --> 00:44:35,400
Speaker 2: you can find all of my work at Fantasy Pros

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00:44:35,440 --> 00:44:38,120
Speaker 2: and Betting Pros. So at Fantasy Pros. I will have

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00:44:38,239 --> 00:44:43,239
Speaker 2: my final NFL mock on Thursday morning Thursday afternoon, just

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00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:45,560
Speaker 2: depending on how detailed I want the ride up to

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00:44:45,600 --> 00:44:48,520
Speaker 2: be and then my entire betting card you can find

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00:44:48,640 --> 00:44:51,920
Speaker 2: at Betting Pros. And then we will be doing a

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00:44:51,960 --> 00:44:56,600
Speaker 2: live stream during the draft, so be sure to check

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00:44:56,680 --> 00:44:58,040
Speaker 2: that out there you.

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00:44:58,000 --> 00:45:00,880
Speaker 3: Go, and be sure to check out Action for all

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00:45:00,880 --> 00:45:04,400
Speaker 3: of our draft content, download the award winning Action Network app.

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00:45:04,880 --> 00:45:08,160
Speaker 3: And just a reminder, our usual UFC betting preview we'll

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00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:11,360
Speaker 3: be out this Friday. We'll have Kentucky Derby betting episodes

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00:45:11,400 --> 00:45:14,240
Speaker 3: next week on the channel, and for anyone betting baseball

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00:45:14,280 --> 00:45:17,719
Speaker 3: this season, remember to check out Payoff Pitch, our new

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00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:19,759
Speaker 3: MLB betting podcast.

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00:45:19,719 --> 00:45:22,360
Speaker 1: Available wherever you like to listen.

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00:45:22,400 --> 00:45:24,840
Speaker 3: Be sure to leave us a five star on Apple

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00:45:24,960 --> 00:45:27,759
Speaker 3: or Spotify if you enjoyed the show, and you can

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00:45:27,800 --> 00:45:30,680
Speaker 3: follow me at Chris Raybon on Twitter and in the app.

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00:45:30,960 --> 00:45:48,880
Speaker 3: Till next time, we'll get this money.