WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Dennis Gartman and Ian Lyngen

0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:14.640
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single best idea, and

0:00:14.680 --> 0:00:16.480
<v Speaker 1>it's a special one. We got a thing at the

0:00:16.560 --> 0:00:18.639
<v Speaker 1>end of Q and A that that is just you know,

0:00:18.800 --> 0:00:22.440
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's filed away, it's archived, it's heritage. We're

0:00:22.480 --> 0:00:25.040
<v Speaker 1>gonna have Ian Lincoln with us, with BEMO, and Dennis

0:00:25.079 --> 0:00:27.840
<v Speaker 1>Gartman's gonna join us. And this really sets up the

0:00:27.960 --> 0:00:33.360
<v Speaker 1>raging linkage. It's called a Fisherian linkage, not after Stanley Fisher,

0:00:33.400 --> 0:00:38.199
<v Speaker 1>after Irving Fisher, but a linkage of how interest rates

0:00:38.200 --> 0:00:42.120
<v Speaker 1>fold into inflation somewhat, how they fold into the economy,

0:00:42.440 --> 0:00:45.120
<v Speaker 1>how they fold back into the bond market, and then

0:00:45.440 --> 0:00:48.960
<v Speaker 1>ultimately into the stock market. You get the broad idea.

0:00:49.680 --> 0:00:52.680
<v Speaker 1>They don't agree. Ian Lincoln says, we're gonna see yield

0:00:52.720 --> 0:00:56.080
<v Speaker 1>come down, We're gonna see disinflation set in, and boyd

0:00:56.080 --> 0:00:59.360
<v Speaker 1>does Dennis Gartman go the other way. It's the great

0:00:59.440 --> 0:01:03.680
<v Speaker 1>call of the last ten years. Dennis Gartman long gold

0:01:04.480 --> 0:01:08.520
<v Speaker 1>short yen or gold in yen is the way the

0:01:08.560 --> 0:01:12.000
<v Speaker 1>trade's called. It's been a moonshot, bigger than Coco. He

0:01:12.120 --> 0:01:16.160
<v Speaker 1>reaffirmed that today look for the entire broadcast. But here

0:01:16.319 --> 0:01:22.679
<v Speaker 1>is Dennis Gartman linking ten and other commodities to your inflation.

0:01:22.760 --> 0:01:26.520
<v Speaker 2>I think we're starting to see inflationary pressures incumbent everywhere.

0:01:27.040 --> 0:01:29.800
<v Speaker 2>Grain prices have stopped going down and started to go up.

0:01:29.920 --> 0:01:32.640
<v Speaker 2>Meat prices have been going up for a while. Clearly,

0:01:32.680 --> 0:01:35.240
<v Speaker 2>crude oil and heating oil prices have been going from

0:01:35.280 --> 0:01:37.080
<v Speaker 2>the lower left to the upper right, and I think

0:01:37.120 --> 0:01:40.880
<v Speaker 2>are going to continue to do so. Coppler prices, ten prices,

0:01:40.920 --> 0:01:43.560
<v Speaker 2>aluminum prices have been going up. This is I think

0:01:43.640 --> 0:01:46.800
<v Speaker 2>a problematic circumstance, not something that's going to go away

0:01:46.840 --> 0:01:49.840
<v Speaker 2>anytime soon, and that's been one of the driving forces

0:01:49.840 --> 0:01:53.480
<v Speaker 2>behind the purchase of gold, and gold's bull moved. So

0:01:54.360 --> 0:01:57.480
<v Speaker 2>I'm a little concerned again that the public has gotten

0:01:57.600 --> 0:01:59.400
<v Speaker 2>enamored of gold in the course of the past week

0:01:59.520 --> 0:02:01.840
<v Speaker 2>or two. But to the fact that we've taken gold

0:02:01.880 --> 0:02:04.440
<v Speaker 2>down fifteen or twenty dollars from its high, probably took

0:02:04.480 --> 0:02:06.280
<v Speaker 2>a few of the weekends that had come into the

0:02:06.320 --> 0:02:08.240
<v Speaker 2>market in the past couple of days. I think if

0:02:08.240 --> 0:02:10.520
<v Speaker 2>you want to be a buyer, you've probably got another

0:02:10.560 --> 0:02:12.840
<v Speaker 2>fifteen to twenty dollars on the downside in gold. But

0:02:12.840 --> 0:02:14.720
<v Speaker 2>then I'd be a buyer. There no question this is

0:02:14.760 --> 0:02:15.840
<v Speaker 2>a global circumstance.

0:02:15.840 --> 0:02:18.799
<v Speaker 1>It's prevailing right now, Tennis Garment with a popular view

0:02:18.800 --> 0:02:20.200
<v Speaker 1>of boy do we get a lot of mails out

0:02:20.240 --> 0:02:23.040
<v Speaker 1>on YouTube, we get the live chat with a lot

0:02:23.080 --> 0:02:25.480
<v Speaker 1>of support for what Gartman says. Some of the street

0:02:25.480 --> 0:02:28.800
<v Speaker 1>would push against it, and that's all part of the conversation.

0:02:29.360 --> 0:02:32.120
<v Speaker 1>What we love to do is not move segment to segment.

0:02:32.160 --> 0:02:35.119
<v Speaker 1>We're not slaves to it, but we'd love to have

0:02:35.200 --> 0:02:38.239
<v Speaker 1>a set of debate across three hours of Bloomberg surveillance

0:02:38.760 --> 0:02:42.639
<v Speaker 1>darkening the door. After mister Gartman was Ian lingon He's

0:02:42.680 --> 0:02:45.760
<v Speaker 1>won every award in fixed income. He's at the Bankabuntral,

0:02:45.840 --> 0:02:51.560
<v Speaker 1>BIMO Capital Markets, BMO, BMO Capital Markets. Ian Lingoenn writes

0:02:51.600 --> 0:02:54.960
<v Speaker 1>a morning note. I'm going to say it's seven paragraphs long,

0:02:55.080 --> 0:02:59.720
<v Speaker 1>it's dense, dense, dnse, it's for Global Wall Street, really

0:03:00.080 --> 0:03:03.680
<v Speaker 1>formative and really opinionated. And then he'll drop a bombshell

0:03:03.720 --> 0:03:05.320
<v Speaker 1>on you, as he did eight months ago when he

0:03:05.360 --> 0:03:09.600
<v Speaker 1>said by the tenure yield price up, yield down, that

0:03:09.680 --> 0:03:12.639
<v Speaker 1>hasn't worked out. I asked him if you'd reaffirm that

0:03:13.080 --> 0:03:16.000
<v Speaker 1>where is the tenure going? He does not agree with

0:03:16.120 --> 0:03:16.880
<v Speaker 1>Dennis Gartman.

0:03:17.080 --> 0:03:19.080
<v Speaker 3>I think there's a strong case to be made that

0:03:19.120 --> 0:03:22.440
<v Speaker 3>we end twenty twenty four with ten year yields in

0:03:22.520 --> 0:03:25.080
<v Speaker 3>a range of let's call it three seventy five to

0:03:25.080 --> 0:03:28.800
<v Speaker 3>three ninety five. The big question right now is how

0:03:28.880 --> 0:03:31.600
<v Speaker 3>far do they back up until we start to get

0:03:31.600 --> 0:03:34.280
<v Speaker 3>some dip bying. I do think that we're right up

0:03:34.320 --> 0:03:37.000
<v Speaker 3>against a range where it makes sense to really load

0:03:37.040 --> 0:03:40.960
<v Speaker 3>the boat between that five sixty five and five assuming

0:03:41.040 --> 0:03:43.920
<v Speaker 3>four sixty five and four seventy five level and tens,

0:03:44.200 --> 0:03:46.960
<v Speaker 3>I expect a fair amount of dip buying interest to

0:03:47.000 --> 0:03:50.360
<v Speaker 3>come in. The caveat is that the ten year auction

0:03:50.600 --> 0:03:54.680
<v Speaker 3>yesterday needed a much bigger concession to be taken down.

0:03:54.800 --> 0:03:58.000
<v Speaker 3>And I think that that was simply the investor's stepping

0:03:58.040 --> 0:04:00.960
<v Speaker 3>back given how much volatility there was. Mary at the moment.

0:04:00.720 --> 0:04:03.560
<v Speaker 1>I was home yesterday, you know truth straight man. I

0:04:03.560 --> 0:04:05.840
<v Speaker 1>woke up from the surveillans nap and I'm sitting there

0:04:06.160 --> 0:04:09.960
<v Speaker 1>and it's Bramo on Lane three. Lisa Bramwood says, See, Tom,

0:04:10.040 --> 0:04:12.520
<v Speaker 1>I told you you got to pay attention to the

0:04:12.560 --> 0:04:15.960
<v Speaker 1>ten year auctions. It was ugly yesterday. Bramwell brief Beyond that,

0:04:16.320 --> 0:04:19.400
<v Speaker 1>Ian Lingen there with PEMO Capital Markets, and really that

0:04:19.560 --> 0:04:22.520
<v Speaker 1>is the heritage. There's two heritages to the show. The

0:04:22.600 --> 0:04:28.320
<v Speaker 1>key heritage is we love to see informed differences of opinion.

0:04:28.880 --> 0:04:31.320
<v Speaker 1>I'm not going around saying, oh, you were wrong Wong, Wong,

0:04:31.360 --> 0:04:34.159
<v Speaker 1>wrong wong, or you were right right right, But the

0:04:34.360 --> 0:04:37.400
<v Speaker 1>conversation of Wall Street and you see a partition there

0:04:37.800 --> 0:04:41.320
<v Speaker 1>from Dennis Gartman and Ian Lingoln. Of course, one of

0:04:41.360 --> 0:04:45.520
<v Speaker 1>the other heritages of Bloomberg is they wait in the

0:04:45.600 --> 0:04:49.440
<v Speaker 1>control room for me. I mean, you know my shortened

0:04:49.560 --> 0:04:52.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, one hour work day. They wait for me

0:04:52.320 --> 0:04:56.960
<v Speaker 1>to ask a question that no one understands, and even

0:04:57.040 --> 0:05:03.560
<v Speaker 1>sometimes informed guests don't understand. Here is Francis Donald of

0:05:03.640 --> 0:05:07.080
<v Speaker 1>Manual Life throwing me under the bus. If we have

0:05:07.279 --> 0:05:13.480
<v Speaker 1>higher inflation, does that mean higher nominal GDP or does

0:05:13.640 --> 0:05:18.200
<v Speaker 1>inflation adjusted the GDP depress so much that we don't

0:05:18.240 --> 0:05:22.600
<v Speaker 1>get an animal spirit lift. You know, Tom, once again,

0:05:22.640 --> 0:05:24.560
<v Speaker 1>I think it's going to take me longer to figure

0:05:24.560 --> 0:05:27.320
<v Speaker 1>out what that question is than answer it such charm,

0:05:27.440 --> 0:05:29.359
<v Speaker 1>are we going to have her back of the program again?

0:05:30.120 --> 0:05:34.520
<v Speaker 1>And what's interesting there is that's an algebraic equation. It's

0:05:34.960 --> 0:05:38.599
<v Speaker 1>nominal GDP the top line, the GDP you're making right now,

0:05:39.279 --> 0:05:43.440
<v Speaker 1>and you take out inflation equals sign and it's left

0:05:43.480 --> 0:05:46.600
<v Speaker 1>with a residual. And my question was a little clumsy

0:05:46.640 --> 0:05:50.800
<v Speaker 1>because I was going across three variables, going circular back

0:05:50.800 --> 0:05:54.920
<v Speaker 1>to the first variable, nominal GDP, and the good Francis

0:05:54.960 --> 0:05:58.040
<v Speaker 1>Donald called me out on clearly a lack of clarity there.

0:05:58.480 --> 0:06:02.159
<v Speaker 1>So here's the debate. You got an animal spirit first,

0:06:02.960 --> 0:06:06.039
<v Speaker 1>and then you take out inflation and you're left with

0:06:06.080 --> 0:06:09.480
<v Speaker 1>this thing that Chairman Paul and everybody, Francis Donald, Yan Lincoln,

0:06:09.760 --> 0:06:12.960
<v Speaker 1>Dennis Garbon look at which is inflation adjusted or real

0:06:13.640 --> 0:06:17.320
<v Speaker 1>GDP and the risk and it's an ambiguity. The risk

0:06:17.360 --> 0:06:20.800
<v Speaker 1>can be do we see inflation go up and stay

0:06:20.880 --> 0:06:23.640
<v Speaker 1>up and what does that do to nominal g in

0:06:23.720 --> 0:06:26.000
<v Speaker 1>front of it? Or what does that do to real

0:06:26.040 --> 0:06:29.400
<v Speaker 1>GDP on the back end? And there's a raging debate.

0:06:29.480 --> 0:06:32.480
<v Speaker 1>Nobody has a certain answer on that. I think we'll have.

0:06:32.600 --> 0:06:35.080
<v Speaker 1>Francis Donald is so nice. We got ever bag, don't

0:06:35.080 --> 0:06:38.200
<v Speaker 1>you think so? I think we should. It is a

0:06:38.320 --> 0:06:41.040
<v Speaker 1>single best idea. We're out on Apple car Play, We're

0:06:41.080 --> 0:06:45.640
<v Speaker 1>out on YouTube, search Bloomberg Podcasts for a great live

0:06:45.760 --> 0:06:48.720
<v Speaker 1>Chat and we're just thrilled we're on chartable, we're on like,

0:06:48.960 --> 0:06:51.680
<v Speaker 1>I'm on Apple Podcast chart and that we're building it out.

0:06:52.000 --> 0:06:55.720
<v Speaker 1>Single best idea, of course, search for Bloomberg surveillance