Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single best idea, and
Speaker 1: it's a special one. We got a thing at the
Speaker 1: end of Q and A that that is just you know,
Speaker 1: I mean, it's filed away, it's archived, it's heritage. We're
Speaker 1: gonna have Ian Lincoln with us, with BEMO, and Dennis
Speaker 1: Gartman's gonna join us. And this really sets up the
Speaker 1: raging linkage. It's called a Fisherian linkage, not after Stanley Fisher,
Speaker 1: after Irving Fisher, but a linkage of how interest rates
Speaker 1: fold into inflation somewhat, how they fold into the economy,
Speaker 1: how they fold back into the bond market, and then
Speaker 1: ultimately into the stock market. You get the broad idea.
Speaker 1: They don't agree. Ian Lincoln says, we're gonna see yield
Speaker 1: come down, We're gonna see disinflation set in, and boyd
Speaker 1: does Dennis Gartman go the other way. It's the great
Speaker 1: call of the last ten years. Dennis Gartman long gold
Speaker 1: short yen or gold in yen is the way the
Speaker 1: trade's called. It's been a moonshot, bigger than Coco. He
Speaker 1: reaffirmed that today look for the entire broadcast. But here
Speaker 1: is Dennis Gartman linking ten and other commodities to your inflation.
Speaker 2: I think we're starting to see inflationary pressures incumbent everywhere.
Speaker 2: Grain prices have stopped going down and started to go up.
Speaker 2: Meat prices have been going up for a while. Clearly,
Speaker 2: crude oil and heating oil prices have been going from
Speaker 2: the lower left to the upper right, and I think
Speaker 2: are going to continue to do so. Coppler prices, ten prices,
Speaker 2: aluminum prices have been going up. This is I think
Speaker 2: a problematic circumstance, not something that's going to go away
Speaker 2: anytime soon, and that's been one of the driving forces
Speaker 2: behind the purchase of gold, and gold's bull moved. So
Speaker 2: I'm a little concerned again that the public has gotten
Speaker 2: enamored of gold in the course of the past week
Speaker 2: or two. But to the fact that we've taken gold
Speaker 2: down fifteen or twenty dollars from its high, probably took
Speaker 2: a few of the weekends that had come into the
Speaker 2: market in the past couple of days. I think if
Speaker 2: you want to be a buyer, you've probably got another
Speaker 2: fifteen to twenty dollars on the downside in gold. But
Speaker 2: then I'd be a buyer. There no question this is
Speaker 2: a global circumstance.
Speaker 1: It's prevailing right now, Tennis Garment with a popular view
Speaker 1: of boy do we get a lot of mails out
Speaker 1: on YouTube, we get the live chat with a lot
Speaker 1: of support for what Gartman says. Some of the street
Speaker 1: would push against it, and that's all part of the conversation.
Speaker 1: What we love to do is not move segment to segment.
Speaker 1: We're not slaves to it, but we'd love to have
Speaker 1: a set of debate across three hours of Bloomberg surveillance
Speaker 1: darkening the door. After mister Gartman was Ian lingon He's
Speaker 1: won every award in fixed income. He's at the Bankabuntral,
Speaker 1: BIMO Capital Markets, BMO, BMO Capital Markets. Ian Lingoenn writes
Speaker 1: a morning note. I'm going to say it's seven paragraphs long,
Speaker 1: it's dense, dense, dnse, it's for Global Wall Street, really
Speaker 1: formative and really opinionated. And then he'll drop a bombshell
Speaker 1: on you, as he did eight months ago when he
Speaker 1: said by the tenure yield price up, yield down, that
Speaker 1: hasn't worked out. I asked him if you'd reaffirm that
Speaker 1: where is the tenure going? He does not agree with
Speaker 1: Dennis Gartman.
Speaker 3: I think there's a strong case to be made that
Speaker 3: we end twenty twenty four with ten year yields in
Speaker 3: a range of let's call it three seventy five to
Speaker 3: three ninety five. The big question right now is how
Speaker 3: far do they back up until we start to get
Speaker 3: some dip bying. I do think that we're right up
Speaker 3: against a range where it makes sense to really load
Speaker 3: the boat between that five sixty five and five assuming
Speaker 3: four sixty five and four seventy five level and tens,
Speaker 3: I expect a fair amount of dip buying interest to
Speaker 3: come in. The caveat is that the ten year auction
Speaker 3: yesterday needed a much bigger concession to be taken down.
Speaker 3: And I think that that was simply the investor's stepping
Speaker 3: back given how much volatility there was. Mary at the moment.
Speaker 1: I was home yesterday, you know truth straight man. I
Speaker 1: woke up from the surveillans nap and I'm sitting there
Speaker 1: and it's Bramo on Lane three. Lisa Bramwood says, See, Tom,
Speaker 1: I told you you got to pay attention to the
Speaker 1: ten year auctions. It was ugly yesterday. Bramwell brief Beyond that,
Speaker 1: Ian Lingen there with PEMO Capital Markets, and really that
Speaker 1: is the heritage. There's two heritages to the show. The
Speaker 1: key heritage is we love to see informed differences of opinion.
Speaker 1: I'm not going around saying, oh, you were wrong Wong, Wong,
Speaker 1: wrong wong, or you were right right right, But the
Speaker 1: conversation of Wall Street and you see a partition there
Speaker 1: from Dennis Gartman and Ian Lingoln. Of course, one of
Speaker 1: the other heritages of Bloomberg is they wait in the
Speaker 1: control room for me. I mean, you know my shortened
Speaker 1: you know, one hour work day. They wait for me
Speaker 1: to ask a question that no one understands, and even
Speaker 1: sometimes informed guests don't understand. Here is Francis Donald of
Speaker 1: Manual Life throwing me under the bus. If we have
Speaker 1: higher inflation, does that mean higher nominal GDP or does
Speaker 1: inflation adjusted the GDP depress so much that we don't
Speaker 1: get an animal spirit lift. You know, Tom, once again,
Speaker 1: I think it's going to take me longer to figure
Speaker 1: out what that question is than answer it such charm,
Speaker 1: are we going to have her back of the program again?
Speaker 1: And what's interesting there is that's an algebraic equation. It's
Speaker 1: nominal GDP the top line, the GDP you're making right now,
Speaker 1: and you take out inflation equals sign and it's left
Speaker 1: with a residual. And my question was a little clumsy
Speaker 1: because I was going across three variables, going circular back
Speaker 1: to the first variable, nominal GDP, and the good Francis
Speaker 1: Donald called me out on clearly a lack of clarity there.
Speaker 1: So here's the debate. You got an animal spirit first,
Speaker 1: and then you take out inflation and you're left with
Speaker 1: this thing that Chairman Paul and everybody, Francis Donald, Yan Lincoln,
Speaker 1: Dennis Garbon look at which is inflation adjusted or real
Speaker 1: GDP and the risk and it's an ambiguity. The risk
Speaker 1: can be do we see inflation go up and stay
Speaker 1: up and what does that do to nominal g in
Speaker 1: front of it? Or what does that do to real
Speaker 1: GDP on the back end? And there's a raging debate.
Speaker 1: Nobody has a certain answer on that. I think we'll have.
Speaker 1: Francis Donald is so nice. We got ever bag, don't
Speaker 1: you think so? I think we should. It is a
Speaker 1: single best idea. We're out on Apple car Play, We're
Speaker 1: out on YouTube, search Bloomberg Podcasts for a great live
Speaker 1: Chat and we're just thrilled we're on chartable, we're on like,
Speaker 1: I'm on Apple Podcast chart and that we're building it out.
Speaker 1: Single best idea, of course, search for Bloomberg surveillance