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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single best idea, and

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Speaker 1: it's a special one. We got a thing at the

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Speaker 1: end of Q and A that that is just you know,

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's filed away, it's archived, it's heritage. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna have Ian Lincoln with us, with BEMO, and Dennis

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Speaker 1: Gartman's gonna join us. And this really sets up the

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Speaker 1: raging linkage. It's called a Fisherian linkage, not after Stanley Fisher,

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Speaker 1: after Irving Fisher, but a linkage of how interest rates

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Speaker 1: fold into inflation somewhat, how they fold into the economy,

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Speaker 1: how they fold back into the bond market, and then

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Speaker 1: ultimately into the stock market. You get the broad idea.

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Speaker 1: They don't agree. Ian Lincoln says, we're gonna see yield

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Speaker 1: come down, We're gonna see disinflation set in, and boyd

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Speaker 1: does Dennis Gartman go the other way. It's the great

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Speaker 1: call of the last ten years. Dennis Gartman long gold

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Speaker 1: short yen or gold in yen is the way the

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Speaker 1: trade's called. It's been a moonshot, bigger than Coco. He

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Speaker 1: reaffirmed that today look for the entire broadcast. But here

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Speaker 1: is Dennis Gartman linking ten and other commodities to your inflation.

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Speaker 2: I think we're starting to see inflationary pressures incumbent everywhere.

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Speaker 2: Grain prices have stopped going down and started to go up.

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Speaker 2: Meat prices have been going up for a while. Clearly,

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Speaker 2: crude oil and heating oil prices have been going from

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Speaker 2: the lower left to the upper right, and I think

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Speaker 2: are going to continue to do so. Coppler prices, ten prices,

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Speaker 2: aluminum prices have been going up. This is I think

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Speaker 2: a problematic circumstance, not something that's going to go away

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Speaker 2: anytime soon, and that's been one of the driving forces

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Speaker 2: behind the purchase of gold, and gold's bull moved. So

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Speaker 2: I'm a little concerned again that the public has gotten

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Speaker 2: enamored of gold in the course of the past week

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Speaker 2: or two. But to the fact that we've taken gold

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Speaker 2: down fifteen or twenty dollars from its high, probably took

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Speaker 2: a few of the weekends that had come into the

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Speaker 2: market in the past couple of days. I think if

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Speaker 2: you want to be a buyer, you've probably got another

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Speaker 2: fifteen to twenty dollars on the downside in gold. But

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Speaker 2: then I'd be a buyer. There no question this is

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Speaker 2: a global circumstance.

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Speaker 1: It's prevailing right now, Tennis Garment with a popular view

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Speaker 1: of boy do we get a lot of mails out

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Speaker 1: on YouTube, we get the live chat with a lot

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Speaker 1: of support for what Gartman says. Some of the street

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Speaker 1: would push against it, and that's all part of the conversation.

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Speaker 1: What we love to do is not move segment to segment.

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Speaker 1: We're not slaves to it, but we'd love to have

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Speaker 1: a set of debate across three hours of Bloomberg surveillance

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Speaker 1: darkening the door. After mister Gartman was Ian lingon He's

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Speaker 1: won every award in fixed income. He's at the Bankabuntral,

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Speaker 1: BIMO Capital Markets, BMO, BMO Capital Markets. Ian Lingoenn writes

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Speaker 1: a morning note. I'm going to say it's seven paragraphs long,

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Speaker 1: it's dense, dense, dnse, it's for Global Wall Street, really

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Speaker 1: formative and really opinionated. And then he'll drop a bombshell

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Speaker 1: on you, as he did eight months ago when he

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Speaker 1: said by the tenure yield price up, yield down, that

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Speaker 1: hasn't worked out. I asked him if you'd reaffirm that

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Speaker 1: where is the tenure going? He does not agree with

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Speaker 1: Dennis Gartman.

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Speaker 3: I think there's a strong case to be made that

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Speaker 3: we end twenty twenty four with ten year yields in

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Speaker 3: a range of let's call it three seventy five to

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Speaker 3: three ninety five. The big question right now is how

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Speaker 3: far do they back up until we start to get

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Speaker 3: some dip bying. I do think that we're right up

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Speaker 3: against a range where it makes sense to really load

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Speaker 3: the boat between that five sixty five and five assuming

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Speaker 3: four sixty five and four seventy five level and tens,

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Speaker 3: I expect a fair amount of dip buying interest to

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Speaker 3: come in. The caveat is that the ten year auction

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Speaker 3: yesterday needed a much bigger concession to be taken down.

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Speaker 3: And I think that that was simply the investor's stepping

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Speaker 3: back given how much volatility there was. Mary at the moment.

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Speaker 1: I was home yesterday, you know truth straight man. I

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Speaker 1: woke up from the surveillans nap and I'm sitting there

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Speaker 1: and it's Bramo on Lane three. Lisa Bramwood says, See, Tom,

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Speaker 1: I told you you got to pay attention to the

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Speaker 1: ten year auctions. It was ugly yesterday. Bramwell brief Beyond that,

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Speaker 1: Ian Lingen there with PEMO Capital Markets, and really that

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Speaker 1: is the heritage. There's two heritages to the show. The

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Speaker 1: key heritage is we love to see informed differences of opinion.

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Speaker 1: I'm not going around saying, oh, you were wrong Wong, Wong,

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Speaker 1: wrong wong, or you were right right right, But the

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Speaker 1: conversation of Wall Street and you see a partition there

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Speaker 1: from Dennis Gartman and Ian Lingoln. Of course, one of

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Speaker 1: the other heritages of Bloomberg is they wait in the

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Speaker 1: control room for me. I mean, you know my shortened

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Speaker 1: you know, one hour work day. They wait for me

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Speaker 1: to ask a question that no one understands, and even

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Speaker 1: sometimes informed guests don't understand. Here is Francis Donald of

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Speaker 1: Manual Life throwing me under the bus. If we have

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Speaker 1: higher inflation, does that mean higher nominal GDP or does

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Speaker 1: inflation adjusted the GDP depress so much that we don't

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Speaker 1: get an animal spirit lift. You know, Tom, once again,

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Speaker 1: I think it's going to take me longer to figure

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Speaker 1: out what that question is than answer it such charm,

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Speaker 1: are we going to have her back of the program again?

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Speaker 1: And what's interesting there is that's an algebraic equation. It's

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Speaker 1: nominal GDP the top line, the GDP you're making right now,

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Speaker 1: and you take out inflation equals sign and it's left

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Speaker 1: with a residual. And my question was a little clumsy

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Speaker 1: because I was going across three variables, going circular back

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Speaker 1: to the first variable, nominal GDP, and the good Francis

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Speaker 1: Donald called me out on clearly a lack of clarity there.

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Speaker 1: So here's the debate. You got an animal spirit first,

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Speaker 1: and then you take out inflation and you're left with

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Speaker 1: this thing that Chairman Paul and everybody, Francis Donald, Yan Lincoln,

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Speaker 1: Dennis Garbon look at which is inflation adjusted or real

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Speaker 1: GDP and the risk and it's an ambiguity. The risk

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Speaker 1: can be do we see inflation go up and stay

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Speaker 1: up and what does that do to nominal g in

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Speaker 1: front of it? Or what does that do to real

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Speaker 1: GDP on the back end? And there's a raging debate.

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Speaker 1: Nobody has a certain answer on that. I think we'll have.

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Speaker 1: Francis Donald is so nice. We got ever bag, don't

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Speaker 1: you think so? I think we should. It is a

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Speaker 1: single best idea. We're out on Apple car Play, We're

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Speaker 1: out on YouTube, search Bloomberg Podcasts for a great live

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Speaker 1: Chat and we're just thrilled we're on chartable, we're on like,

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Speaker 1: I'm on Apple Podcast chart and that we're building it out.

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Speaker 1: Single best idea, of course, search for Bloomberg surveillance