Speaker 1: The Super Bowl signal that only triggered twice in bitcoin's
Speaker 1: history just flashed again.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: Each time this has happened in twenty seventeen and twenty twenty,
Speaker 1: bitcoin went on an exponential run, and based on the data,
Speaker 1: this time could even be way more powerful. Now most
Speaker 1: people won't realize what's happening until it's too late. But
Speaker 1: if you understand this signal right now, you can position
Speaker 1: yourself before the crowd. Now, I'm Mark Moss. Since twenty sixteen,
Speaker 1: I've helped millions navigate bitcoin.
Speaker 2: Cycles using data not hype.
Speaker 1: I'm a partner at a leading bitcoin venture fund, and
Speaker 1: I advise companies building the future of finance on bitcoin. Now,
Speaker 1: in this video, I'm going to walk you through the
Speaker 1: same system, the same signals that we use to make decisions,
Speaker 1: and how you can use them too.
Speaker 2: So let's go.
Speaker 1: Okay, So we are talking about a bull signal. We're
Speaker 1: talking about a signal change. There's times and periods where
Speaker 1: things change, and of course you have to change your
Speaker 1: investing strategy.
Speaker 2: Now, there's one chart that's commonly ignored when we talk
Speaker 2: about this.
Speaker 1: So hear me talk a lot about debt debt cycles,
Speaker 1: we talk about M two money supply, things like that,
Speaker 1: and a lot of people think about this right here, Okay,
Speaker 1: this is the US M two.
Speaker 2: Now, of course this makes sense because.
Speaker 1: The US dollar is the reserve currency of the world,
Speaker 1: and so if we look at the USM two, the
Speaker 1: money supply, then we can see that as this goes up,
Speaker 1: then of course asset prices go up with it. As
Speaker 1: a matter of fact, the S and P five hundred
Speaker 1: moves about in lockstep with this. The national median home
Speaker 1: price moves pretty close in lockstep with this. But when
Speaker 1: it comes to more international assets like bitcoin, like gold
Speaker 1: and other commodities, we want to be looking at another chart,
Speaker 1: and we're talking about the Global M two, not USM
Speaker 1: two Global M two or global Liquidity index. Now I
Speaker 1: make a bunch of videos about this, and there's a
Speaker 1: lot of ways to break this down. But if we
Speaker 1: look at this very simply, we can look at global
Speaker 1: M two and we can understand.
Speaker 2: If it's growing or rising.
Speaker 1: So these greens are when it's expanding rapidly. The red
Speaker 1: down here is when it's declining rapidly. But of course
Speaker 1: it's always going up. So what we can see here
Speaker 1: is the green is the year over year growth. The
Speaker 1: blue line that we have here is the money supply,
Speaker 1: so it's always going up and we can see how
Speaker 1: fast it's expanding. And then what we have overlaid here
Speaker 1: is the red line is the bitcoin price. And now the
Speaker 1: reason why I'm showing you this is because what happens,
Speaker 1: like almost every chart, is we have periods where it
Speaker 1: goes up and then it consolidates, and then it has
Speaker 1: a breakout, and then it consolidates and it has a breakout,
Speaker 1: sort of like our life. Now, what we can see
Speaker 1: in this chart is there's a time where this M
Speaker 1: too money supply hits a consolidation and then it breaks
Speaker 1: out and it goes higher, and then it consolidates and
Speaker 1: it goes way higher, and then it consolidates and it
Speaker 1: goes higher. It's important to understand this because it's what
Speaker 1: pushes asset price is higher. We can see in a
Speaker 1: chart here. This is from real vision over here. Everyone
Speaker 1: loves to correct me in the in the comments about that.
Speaker 1: Of course it has it right here on the chart. Okay,
Speaker 1: what we can see here is that global M two supply,
Speaker 1: which is the black line overlaid with the bitcoin price,
Speaker 1: which is the pink line.
Speaker 2: Now, this has.
Speaker 1: About a twelve week lag, so it doesn't move day
Speaker 1: to day, right one to one. But what we can
Speaker 1: see is they're matched almost perfectly. And when we go
Speaker 1: into a consolidation pattern and then we see M two
Speaker 1: break out with a lag, what do you think happens next?
Speaker 1: You can be an elementary kid and understand the pattern,
Speaker 1: and of course that is bitcoin breaking out. Now, this
Speaker 1: has been a major predictor of every big Bitcoin Bowl
Speaker 1: run that we've had twenty seventeen, twenty twenty, and it
Speaker 1: just triggered again. Now the question is how big and
Speaker 1: how fast is the move up in liquidity and what
Speaker 1: will that mean for Bitcoin's price when we look at
Speaker 1: it from historical angles, And don't worry, I got you
Speaker 1: covered on that.
Speaker 2: Let's break that down.
Speaker 1: So the first thing we want to know is that
Speaker 1: in these past global liquidity breakouts, what's happened.
Speaker 2: Let's take a look.
Speaker 1: We can see that in twenty seventeen we saw about
Speaker 1: a twenty x return. Now again just going back to this,
Speaker 1: we see the explosive move up, the consolidation, the explosives
Speaker 1: move up, the consolidation, the explosive move up and the
Speaker 1: consolidation Now if you can zoom in editor zoom in,
Speaker 1: you can see there is a breakout forming. The question
Speaker 1: then is how big and how fast and how severe
Speaker 1: will that move be? Okay, we're gonna break that down
Speaker 1: for you. I just wanted to kind of show you
Speaker 1: what that looks like. Now again, if we overlay that,
Speaker 1: we can see that in past breakouts, like right here,
Speaker 1: we had a pretty big move. Right this was pretty big,
Speaker 1: but in this breakout you can see how much bigger
Speaker 1: this move was.
Speaker 2: Why well, because.
Speaker 1: That was during the pandemic, right the entire world went
Speaker 1: into a massive liquidity easing cycle because you know, they
Speaker 1: shut the whole world down.
Speaker 2: We had to make up for that.
Speaker 1: And so what we really want to understand is how
Speaker 1: big will this move be? How severe will that be,
Speaker 1: so we can understand how this impacts prices. Now in
Speaker 1: this Super Bowl cycle super Bowl not super Bowl like football.
Speaker 2: Like I said, we have two things going our way
Speaker 2: right now. Number one, we have.
Speaker 1: Global easing global liquidity. Okay, that's happening all over the world.
Speaker 1: But the other thing we're looking at is rates, specifically
Speaker 1: the two year rate. So we want to know is
Speaker 1: when is liquidity rising and when our interest rates dropping
Speaker 1: because when those two converge, that's what creates this super
Speaker 1: Bowl cycle that we're talking about. Now, we also have
Speaker 1: the fifty year cycle that has four distinct phases. I
Speaker 1: talk about this all the time, and we know that
Speaker 1: phase two of that is what's called the frenzy phase.
Speaker 1: So we have the eruption phase that we have the
Speaker 1: frenzy phase, and this is the biggest part of the move.
Speaker 1: So we have the whole world easing, going global liquid,
Speaker 1: adding global equidity. At the same time, we have the
Speaker 1: FED and all the other central banks around the world
Speaker 1: talk about lowering rates. And on top of that, we
Speaker 1: have the largest part of the cycle all framing up
Speaker 1: at the same time. Now that we have that, let's
Speaker 1: go back and see where this could potentially take us. Okay,
Speaker 1: so if we look at historical multipliers from the bear
Speaker 1: market bottom, so bitcoin goes up and down. So from
Speaker 1: the time it hits the bottom of the bear market
Speaker 1: to the top of the next cycle, what do we
Speaker 1: typically see. Well, in twenty thirteen, bitcoin's price was thirteen dollars.
Speaker 1: How nces you wish it could go back in time
Speaker 1: and just buy it at thirteen bucks. You buy it
Speaker 1: at thirteen dollars. That was the TROW that was at
Speaker 1: the bear market. At the top of that cycle, it
Speaker 1: was eleven hundred dollars. Imagine buying it for thirteen right
Speaker 1: into eleven hundred. That was an eighty five times return.
Speaker 1: Now in that part that was really early days. There
Speaker 1: wasn't a lot of buying. The asset was very small,
Speaker 1: didn't take a lot of buying to get it up there,
Speaker 1: so we had early retail. There was no liquidy constraints
Speaker 1: in nothing like that. Then twenty seventeen, the next cycle,
Speaker 1: the TROW the bottom the bear market of that cycle
Speaker 1: was two hundred on from thirteen to eleven hundred and
Speaker 1: then all the way back down to two hundred. This
Speaker 1: is around when I started looking at this cycle. Twenty
Speaker 1: fifteen is when I got in around three hundred, and
Speaker 1: then we saw it go all the way to twenty thousand.
Speaker 1: So from twenty from two hundred to twenty thousand, that
Speaker 1: was a one hundred x return. Now during this time,
Speaker 1: this was when we had the ico mania phase. We
Speaker 1: had this very low base to start with. We also
Speaker 1: saw the first sort of institutional adoption coming in where
Speaker 1: we had the futures go live in twenty seventeen, and
Speaker 1: we took it there.
Speaker 2: Then we have twenty twenty one.
Speaker 1: Now we saw in twenty twenty it fell all the
Speaker 1: way down the trow the bottom of the bear market
Speaker 1: around thirty one hundred, and then it went all the
Speaker 1: way to sixty nine thousand, and that was a twenty.
Speaker 2: Two x return.
Speaker 1: Now, this is when we started to get the institutions
Speaker 1: were starting to come in, and it was also post COVID,
Speaker 1: so we sort of had that big rush of liquid
Speaker 1: that came in and maybe it got cut a little
Speaker 1: bit short. Right, cycles have averages, and this one was
Speaker 1: a much lower. The question is now our bottom was
Speaker 1: sixteen thousand in this cycle in twenty twenty two, and
Speaker 1: the question is how high will this go?
Speaker 2: Right, let's take it. Let's take a look at that.
Speaker 1: So we can only take a guess, but let's put
Speaker 1: some ranges in it. Right, so we have an average,
Speaker 1: but let's take a look at the ranges. So let's
Speaker 1: just say if we apply the same multipliers to twenty
Speaker 1: twenty two's bottom of sixteen thousand, how high could it
Speaker 1: go based off of that? Well, if we only look
Speaker 1: at an eight times, which is a very conservative, conservative
Speaker 1: number as you saw we saw one hundred times before that.
Speaker 1: That could push us up to about one hundred and
Speaker 1: twenty eight thousand dollars, which means we might be getting
Speaker 1: somewhat toppy. If we get more of like a twelve
Speaker 1: x return, we could go up as high as one
Speaker 1: hundred and ninety two thousand, and if we go up
Speaker 1: a twenty x return, which is definitely optimistic, but that's
Speaker 1: more like what we saw in earlier cycles, that could
Speaker 1: put Bitcoin up to about three hundred and twenty thousand dollars. Now,
Speaker 1: the question we have to ask ourselves is which one
Speaker 1: do we think is likely to play out? And we
Speaker 1: have to look at other indicators to try to figure
Speaker 1: that out. All right now, to try to guess the future,
Speaker 1: we look at a lot of indicators now, and what
Speaker 1: I'm looking at far out in the future, I'm looking
Speaker 1: at more fundamental stuff. The what I call, you know,
Speaker 1: reading the leaves, the tea leaves, like technical analysis is
Speaker 1: not going to tell us the future. We want to
Speaker 1: look at the fundamentals. And of course the famous last
Speaker 1: words are you know this time is different, but is
Speaker 1: this time different?
Speaker 2: Let's take a look.
Speaker 1: So there's a lot of things that are different. Okay,
Speaker 1: so we're not in twenty seventeen, we're not twenty twenty more.
Speaker 1: This time, we know from the fifty year historical cycle,
Speaker 1: the four phases. We went from the retail adoption to
Speaker 1: now the institutional sovereign phase, so we know this is different.
Speaker 1: So remember in the instant, the in the eruption phase,
Speaker 1: the first phase, retail comes in, they buy up everything.
Speaker 2: But we're talking people with.
Speaker 1: Hundreds of dollars or thousands of dollars, maybe hundreds of
Speaker 1: thousands of dollars. In the institutional in the sovereign phase,
Speaker 1: we're talking about hundreds of billion dollars. A matter of fact,
Speaker 1: year to date, just here in twenty twenty five, we've
Speaker 1: had over almost eighty five billion dollars has gone into bitcoin.
Speaker 1: Wall Street Institution place eighty five billion. So we're talking big,
Speaker 1: big numbers.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: Another thing is that we've gone from having headwinds to tellwinds.
Speaker 2: What do I mean by that?
Speaker 1: Bitcoin since it's been around, has faced massive opposition. In
Speaker 1: the early days, it wasn't really well known, so it
Speaker 1: didn't have a lot of opposition. But the political regime,
Speaker 1: the central bankers, the politicians have always been against it.
Speaker 1: The Biden administration was very aggressively against it. As a
Speaker 1: matter of fact, they practiced Operation Choke point two point zero,
Speaker 1: where they basically blocked banks from being involved in bitcoin.
Speaker 1: You couldn't even send money from your bank to bitcoin.
Speaker 1: Elizabeth Warren ran on a platform literally called the anti
Speaker 1: Crypto Army. So heavy, heavy, heavy, heavy headwinds obstacles. Right,
Speaker 1: So bitcoin has gotten to where it's at in spite
Speaker 1: of all of that, and all of a sudden that
Speaker 1: switched like a one hundred and eighty degree turned. The
Speaker 1: headwinds now became tailwinds. Now we have the entire United
Speaker 1: States government opening up a strategic Bitcoin reserve, opening up
Speaker 1: a sovereign wealth fund to buy bitcoin. You have the President,
Speaker 1: the president's companies, the president's sons taking billions of dollars.
Speaker 1: They dis announced to taking two point five billion dollars
Speaker 1: to buy more bitcoin. So we went from having massive
Speaker 1: headwinds to now having massive tellwins. So how much more
Speaker 1: does that change the trajectory of where that goes in
Speaker 1: the future. Now, the one thing we have to understand
Speaker 1: about this is that because we now have what we
Speaker 1: call the smart money, you and I were dumb. The
Speaker 1: smart money is the institutions, right, the people that are
Speaker 1: really connected politically also financially, they front run this. They're
Speaker 1: already taking position, and so are you. But what happens
Speaker 1: is when they take positions, then they it causes some
Speaker 1: compression potentially, So we've gone from having massive headwinds to
Speaker 1: now having massive tailwinds. We have huge amounts of money
Speaker 1: coming in, but it could already be front running this
Speaker 1: and it could potentially compress this. We have to take
Speaker 1: all of that into consideration when we're trying to figure
Speaker 1: out where this goes. But based off of this, what
Speaker 1: should we be doing well? The first thing we would
Speaker 1: do is I always built my whole career on a saying.
Speaker 1: I think as Tony Robbins that said, success leaves clues.
Speaker 1: So you find other people that are already successful, you
Speaker 1: do about the same things, you get about the same results.
Speaker 1: So when you see, you know, Larry Fink, the largest
Speaker 1: asset manager in the world head a black rock saying
Speaker 1: I bought bitcoin.
Speaker 2: When you have ray Alio, the large you.
Speaker 1: Know, the founder of the largest hedge fund in the
Speaker 1: world saying I bought bitcoin. You have a President Trump,
Speaker 1: the founder or the leader of the free world saying
Speaker 1: I'm buying billions of dollars in bitcoin, but your cousin,
Speaker 1: or your hairstylist or your driver is telling you that
Speaker 1: bitcoin is a Ponzi scam.
Speaker 2: Who do you think you should listen to?
Speaker 1: Okay, So the first thing is we want to understand
Speaker 1: we are not more connected or smarter than they are.
Speaker 1: But what we don't want to do is we don't
Speaker 1: want to be gambling. Okay, we don't want to be
Speaker 1: jumping into this blindfolded. We want to understand what's going on,
Speaker 1: what we expect to happen, and we want to position
Speaker 1: ourselfs intelligently.
Speaker 2: So we want to.
Speaker 1: Understand the signs that can tell us where we're at
Speaker 1: in the cycle. Now, if we can understand this, then
Speaker 1: you and I have the ability to front run the institution.
Speaker 1: So instead of them get in front of us, we
Speaker 1: have the ability to play the game with them. Now,
Speaker 1: there's three pillars to understand this, all right. The first
Speaker 1: one is there's macro cycles. Okay, it's already kind of
Speaker 1: showed you that these are the liquidy levels. We looked
Speaker 1: at those, the liquidy index, the M two global M
Speaker 1: two growth, things like that, the two year yields. We've
Speaker 1: talked about those, all right. The next thing we want
Speaker 1: to look at is price trends. So I like to
Speaker 1: look at breakouts.
Speaker 2: We talked about that.
Speaker 1: There's a couple that I like to look at. So
Speaker 1: the first thing is one that you could just use.
Speaker 1: This is very simple. This is a two hundred day
Speaker 1: or two hundred weekly moving average. So that's the yellow
Speaker 1: line right here. Anytime the bitcoin price gets down to
Speaker 1: this level, these have always been historic buying opportunities. Like
Speaker 1: imagine if you could have bought here, we're here and
Speaker 1: ridden that up. You bought here and you rode that up.
Speaker 1: You bought here and you.
Speaker 2: Rode that up. Okay, So anytime it gets.
Speaker 1: Down to the level, those are historic buying opportunities, and
Speaker 1: we know that we're nowhere near that level right now.
Speaker 2: Okay. Now, another one we want to look at is
Speaker 2: on chain data.
Speaker 1: The beauty of bitcoin is gives us this whole new
Speaker 1: data set that we don't have with other assets.
Speaker 2: Now, I'm going to show you three that I use.
Speaker 1: If you want to know the top five on chain
Speaker 1: indicators that I use, then you should probably be watching.
Speaker 2: I'll go ahead. Let's just go put that video up
Speaker 2: here or we'll.
Speaker 1: Link it down in the show notes down below. But
Speaker 1: three that we can look at real quickly are the
Speaker 1: mv RV. This is the market value and the realized value.
Speaker 1: And so we can see this is the bitcoin price
Speaker 1: in the black line here, and the blue line is
Speaker 1: the realized.
Speaker 2: Cap market cap.
Speaker 1: But what this is right here is this is the
Speaker 1: MVRV score. Now you can see when it peaks really high,
Speaker 1: we're at the peak of a market, but right now
Speaker 1: it's not peaking anywhere near high, which means we have
Speaker 1: a lot of room to run in this market. I
Speaker 1: like to look at that. Another one we look at
Speaker 1: is this in UPL. This is the net unrealized profit
Speaker 1: and loss. And this tells us sort of the motivations
Speaker 1: or the emotions that people holding bitcoin might feel, and
Speaker 1: they could tell us when they might want to be
Speaker 1: taking profit. And again we can see when this spike's high,
Speaker 1: the bitcoin market spikes high. When this spike's high, the
Speaker 1: bitcoin right high. When this spiked, hie, the bitcoin price
Speaker 1: was high. But here we're nowhere close, which means this
Speaker 1: is probably going to run way up before we get
Speaker 1: some convergence up there. So again we're nowhere near the top.
Speaker 1: Another indicator that we look at is this sop R.
Speaker 1: It's another easy one to understand. This is a spent
Speaker 1: output profit ratio. So again when we understand where people
Speaker 1: are at in profit, we can understand what their emotions
Speaker 1: are and if they might be selling. So for example,
Speaker 1: a lot of people, if they're underwater, they don't want
Speaker 1: to sell right now because they want wait.
Speaker 2: Till they get back in profit.
Speaker 1: But if they're sitting on lots of profits, they might
Speaker 1: want to sell to pay off some debt, buy a
Speaker 1: new house, or just take some cream off the top.
Speaker 2: You never go broke taking a profit.
Speaker 1: And what we can see is when it spikes really high,
Speaker 1: we see bitcoin tops spoke right here, right here.
Speaker 2: But again we are very low. We're nowhere near the top.
Speaker 1: So what these indicat are telling us is that we're
Speaker 1: nowhere near the top of the market cycle yet. So
Speaker 1: we can see that we have the breakout in global equity.
Speaker 2: It just broke out. We're not the high part of it.
Speaker 2: It's just taking off.
Speaker 1: We know that in previous periods like this, bitcoin has
Speaker 1: gone up twenty times, eighty times, one hundred times, and
Speaker 1: we can see that we're nowhere near the top of
Speaker 1: that cycle right now. Okay, so what are the smart
Speaker 1: moves to make in this environment. Well, again, we don't
Speaker 1: want to go in blindly. We don't want to gamble here.
Speaker 1: We want to look at data and position intelligently. But
Speaker 1: we do understand that the clock is ticking. The breakout happened,
Speaker 1: the quidy is rushing in. Bitcoin sat at all time highs,
Speaker 1: and we know that these cycles don't last that long.
Speaker 2: So the clock is ticking now.
Speaker 1: Most people they do it the wrong way, which is
Speaker 1: why most people are average. They're not the one percent
Speaker 1: that are wealthy. And they chase price. So what they're
Speaker 1: doing is they're looking at the price. Well, Bitcoin right
Speaker 1: now at the time of this video is don't one
Speaker 1: hundred and five thousand. It's very well expensive compared to
Speaker 1: what expensive compared to when it was two hundred buckssive
Speaker 1: expensive compared to where it could be in a year
Speaker 1: or five years from now. So they're chasing price. What
Speaker 1: smart money does is they chase liquidity. We understand that
Speaker 1: when liquidity, when the money supply increases, asset prices go
Speaker 1: up as well. We want the lead indicator so we
Speaker 1: can see liquidity breaking out and about to rise. We
Speaker 1: know that asset prices will continue to rise on a
Speaker 1: three month lag. Okay, now we also understand that the Super.
Speaker 2: Bowl signal is very rare.
Speaker 1: When we see liquidity breakout, we see two year rates
Speaker 1: starting to drop, and where we see we're in the
Speaker 1: fifty year cycle, all three of those converging is extremely rare, rare,
Speaker 1: and it is extremely powerful. So what winners do is
Speaker 1: they prepare. They don't chase the price. They look at
Speaker 1: the data and they prepare and they position.
Speaker 2: Now, if you
Speaker 1: Want to know more about understanding where the price is
Speaker 1: going by let's say twenty thirty, twenty forty, in twenty fifty,
Speaker 1: I have a video for you might want to watch
Speaker 1: this video right here and hope to see over them