WEBVTT - This Rare Bitcoin Signal Only Triggered Twice Before... Until Now

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<v Speaker 1>The Super Bowl signal that only triggered twice in bitcoin's

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<v Speaker 1>history just flashed again.

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<v Speaker 2>Now.

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<v Speaker 1>Each time this has happened in twenty seventeen and twenty twenty,

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<v Speaker 1>bitcoin went on an exponential run, and based on the data,

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<v Speaker 1>this time could even be way more powerful. Now most

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<v Speaker 1>people won't realize what's happening until it's too late. But

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<v Speaker 1>if you understand this signal right now, you can position

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<v Speaker 1>yourself before the crowd. Now, I'm Mark Moss. Since twenty sixteen,

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<v Speaker 1>I've helped millions navigate bitcoin.

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<v Speaker 2>Cycles using data not hype.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm a partner at a leading bitcoin venture fund, and

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<v Speaker 1>I advise companies building the future of finance on bitcoin. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>in this video, I'm going to walk you through the

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<v Speaker 1>same system, the same signals that we use to make decisions,

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<v Speaker 1>and how you can use them too.

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<v Speaker 2>So let's go.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, So we are talking about a bull signal. We're

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<v Speaker 1>talking about a signal change. There's times and periods where

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<v Speaker 1>things change, and of course you have to change your

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<v Speaker 1>investing strategy.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, there's one chart that's commonly ignored when we talk

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<v Speaker 2>about this.

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<v Speaker 1>So hear me talk a lot about debt debt cycles,

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<v Speaker 1>we talk about M two money supply, things like that,

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<v Speaker 1>and a lot of people think about this right here, Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>this is the US M two.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, of course this makes sense because.

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<v Speaker 1>The US dollar is the reserve currency of the world,

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<v Speaker 1>and so if we look at the USM two, the

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<v Speaker 1>money supply, then we can see that as this goes up,

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<v Speaker 1>then of course asset prices go up with it. As

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<v Speaker 1>a matter of fact, the S and P five hundred

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<v Speaker 1>moves about in lockstep with this. The national median home

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<v Speaker 1>price moves pretty close in lockstep with this. But when

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<v Speaker 1>it comes to more international assets like bitcoin, like gold

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<v Speaker 1>and other commodities, we want to be looking at another chart,

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<v Speaker 1>and we're talking about the Global M two, not USM

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<v Speaker 1>two Global M two or global Liquidity index. Now I

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<v Speaker 1>make a bunch of videos about this, and there's a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of ways to break this down. But if we

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<v Speaker 1>look at this very simply, we can look at global

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<v Speaker 1>M two and we can understand.

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<v Speaker 2>If it's growing or rising.

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<v Speaker 1>So these greens are when it's expanding rapidly. The red

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<v Speaker 1>down here is when it's declining rapidly. But of course

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<v Speaker 1>it's always going up. So what we can see here

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<v Speaker 1>is the green is the year over year growth. The

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<v Speaker 1>blue line that we have here is the money supply,

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<v Speaker 1>so it's always going up and we can see how

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<v Speaker 1>fast it's expanding. And then what we have overlaid here

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<v Speaker 1>is the red line is the bitcoin price. And now the

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<v Speaker 1>reason why I'm showing you this is because what happens,

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<v Speaker 1>like almost every chart, is we have periods where it

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<v Speaker 1>goes up and then it consolidates, and then it has

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<v Speaker 1>a breakout, and then it consolidates and it has a breakout,

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<v Speaker 1>sort of like our life. Now, what we can see

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<v Speaker 1>in this chart is there's a time where this M

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<v Speaker 1>too money supply hits a consolidation and then it breaks

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<v Speaker 1>out and it goes higher, and then it consolidates and

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<v Speaker 1>it goes way higher, and then it consolidates and it

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<v Speaker 1>goes higher. It's important to understand this because it's what

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<v Speaker 1>pushes asset price is higher. We can see in a

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<v Speaker 1>chart here. This is from real vision over here. Everyone

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<v Speaker 1>loves to correct me in the in the comments about that.

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<v Speaker 1>Of course it has it right here on the chart. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>what we can see here is that global M two supply,

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<v Speaker 1>which is the black line overlaid with the bitcoin price,

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<v Speaker 1>which is the pink line.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, this has.

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<v Speaker 1>About a twelve week lag, so it doesn't move day

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<v Speaker 1>to day, right one to one. But what we can

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<v Speaker 1>see is they're matched almost perfectly. And when we go

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<v Speaker 1>into a consolidation pattern and then we see M two

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<v Speaker 1>break out with a lag, what do you think happens next?

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<v Speaker 1>You can be an elementary kid and understand the pattern,

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<v Speaker 1>and of course that is bitcoin breaking out. Now, this

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<v Speaker 1>has been a major predictor of every big Bitcoin Bowl

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<v Speaker 1>run that we've had twenty seventeen, twenty twenty, and it

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<v Speaker 1>just triggered again. Now the question is how big and

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<v Speaker 1>how fast is the move up in liquidity and what

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<v Speaker 1>will that mean for Bitcoin's price when we look at

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<v Speaker 1>it from historical angles, And don't worry, I got you

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<v Speaker 1>covered on that.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's break that down.

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<v Speaker 1>So the first thing we want to know is that

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<v Speaker 1>in these past global liquidity breakouts, what's happened.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's take a look.

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<v Speaker 1>We can see that in twenty seventeen we saw about

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<v Speaker 1>a twenty x return. Now again just going back to this,

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<v Speaker 1>we see the explosive move up, the consolidation, the explosives

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<v Speaker 1>move up, the consolidation, the explosive move up and the

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<v Speaker 1>consolidation Now if you can zoom in editor zoom in,

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<v Speaker 1>you can see there is a breakout forming. The question

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<v Speaker 1>then is how big and how fast and how severe

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<v Speaker 1>will that move be? Okay, we're gonna break that down

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<v Speaker 1>for you. I just wanted to kind of show you

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<v Speaker 1>what that looks like. Now again, if we overlay that,

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<v Speaker 1>we can see that in past breakouts, like right here,

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<v Speaker 1>we had a pretty big move. Right this was pretty big,

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<v Speaker 1>but in this breakout you can see how much bigger

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<v Speaker 1>this move was.

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<v Speaker 2>Why well, because.

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<v Speaker 1>That was during the pandemic, right the entire world went

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<v Speaker 1>into a massive liquidity easing cycle because you know, they

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<v Speaker 1>shut the whole world down.

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<v Speaker 2>We had to make up for that.

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<v Speaker 1>And so what we really want to understand is how

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<v Speaker 1>big will this move be? How severe will that be,

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<v Speaker 1>so we can understand how this impacts prices. Now in

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<v Speaker 1>this Super Bowl cycle super Bowl not super Bowl like football.

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<v Speaker 2>Like I said, we have two things going our way

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<v Speaker 2>right now. Number one, we have.

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<v Speaker 1>Global easing global liquidity. Okay, that's happening all over the world.

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<v Speaker 1>But the other thing we're looking at is rates, specifically

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<v Speaker 1>the two year rate. So we want to know is

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<v Speaker 1>when is liquidity rising and when our interest rates dropping

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<v Speaker 1>because when those two converge, that's what creates this super

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<v Speaker 1>Bowl cycle that we're talking about. Now, we also have

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<v Speaker 1>the fifty year cycle that has four distinct phases. I

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<v Speaker 1>talk about this all the time, and we know that

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<v Speaker 1>phase two of that is what's called the frenzy phase.

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<v Speaker 1>So we have the eruption phase that we have the

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<v Speaker 1>frenzy phase, and this is the biggest part of the move.

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<v Speaker 1>So we have the whole world easing, going global liquid,

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<v Speaker 1>adding global equidity. At the same time, we have the

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<v Speaker 1>FED and all the other central banks around the world

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<v Speaker 1>talk about lowering rates. And on top of that, we

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<v Speaker 1>have the largest part of the cycle all framing up

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<v Speaker 1>at the same time. Now that we have that, let's

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<v Speaker 1>go back and see where this could potentially take us. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>so if we look at historical multipliers from the bear

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<v Speaker 1>market bottom, so bitcoin goes up and down. So from

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<v Speaker 1>the time it hits the bottom of the bear market

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<v Speaker 1>to the top of the next cycle, what do we

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<v Speaker 1>typically see. Well, in twenty thirteen, bitcoin's price was thirteen dollars.

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<v Speaker 1>How nces you wish it could go back in time

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<v Speaker 1>and just buy it at thirteen bucks. You buy it

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<v Speaker 1>at thirteen dollars. That was the TROW that was at

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<v Speaker 1>the bear market. At the top of that cycle, it

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<v Speaker 1>was eleven hundred dollars. Imagine buying it for thirteen right

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<v Speaker 1>into eleven hundred. That was an eighty five times return.

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<v Speaker 1>Now in that part that was really early days. There

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<v Speaker 1>wasn't a lot of buying. The asset was very small,

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<v Speaker 1>didn't take a lot of buying to get it up there,

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<v Speaker 1>so we had early retail. There was no liquidy constraints

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<v Speaker 1>in nothing like that. Then twenty seventeen, the next cycle,

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<v Speaker 1>the TROW the bottom the bear market of that cycle

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<v Speaker 1>was two hundred on from thirteen to eleven hundred and

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<v Speaker 1>then all the way back down to two hundred. This

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<v Speaker 1>is around when I started looking at this cycle. Twenty

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<v Speaker 1>fifteen is when I got in around three hundred, and

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<v Speaker 1>then we saw it go all the way to twenty thousand.

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<v Speaker 1>So from twenty from two hundred to twenty thousand, that

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<v Speaker 1>was a one hundred x return. Now during this time,

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<v Speaker 1>this was when we had the ico mania phase. We

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<v Speaker 1>had this very low base to start with. We also

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<v Speaker 1>saw the first sort of institutional adoption coming in where

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<v Speaker 1>we had the futures go live in twenty seventeen, and

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<v Speaker 1>we took it there.

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<v Speaker 2>Then we have twenty twenty one.

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<v Speaker 1>Now we saw in twenty twenty it fell all the

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<v Speaker 1>way down the trow the bottom of the bear market

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<v Speaker 1>around thirty one hundred, and then it went all the

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<v Speaker 1>way to sixty nine thousand, and that was a twenty.

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<v Speaker 2>Two x return.

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<v Speaker 1>Now, this is when we started to get the institutions

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<v Speaker 1>were starting to come in, and it was also post COVID,

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<v Speaker 1>so we sort of had that big rush of liquid

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<v Speaker 1>that came in and maybe it got cut a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit short. Right, cycles have averages, and this one was

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<v Speaker 1>a much lower. The question is now our bottom was

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<v Speaker 1>sixteen thousand in this cycle in twenty twenty two, and

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<v Speaker 1>the question is how high will this go?

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<v Speaker 2>Right, let's take it. Let's take a look at that.

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<v Speaker 1>So we can only take a guess, but let's put

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<v Speaker 1>some ranges in it. Right, so we have an average,

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<v Speaker 1>but let's take a look at the ranges. So let's

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<v Speaker 1>just say if we apply the same multipliers to twenty

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<v Speaker 1>twenty two's bottom of sixteen thousand, how high could it

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<v Speaker 1>go based off of that? Well, if we only look

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<v Speaker 1>at an eight times, which is a very conservative, conservative

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<v Speaker 1>number as you saw we saw one hundred times before that.

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<v Speaker 1>That could push us up to about one hundred and

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<v Speaker 1>twenty eight thousand dollars, which means we might be getting

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<v Speaker 1>somewhat toppy. If we get more of like a twelve

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<v Speaker 1>x return, we could go up as high as one

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and ninety two thousand, and if we go up

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<v Speaker 1>a twenty x return, which is definitely optimistic, but that's

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<v Speaker 1>more like what we saw in earlier cycles, that could

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<v Speaker 1>put Bitcoin up to about three hundred and twenty thousand dollars. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>the question we have to ask ourselves is which one

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<v Speaker 1>do we think is likely to play out? And we

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<v Speaker 1>have to look at other indicators to try to figure

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<v Speaker 1>that out. All right now, to try to guess the future,

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<v Speaker 1>we look at a lot of indicators now, and what

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<v Speaker 1>I'm looking at far out in the future, I'm looking

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<v Speaker 1>at more fundamental stuff. The what I call, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>reading the leaves, the tea leaves, like technical analysis is

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<v Speaker 1>not going to tell us the future. We want to

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<v Speaker 1>look at the fundamentals. And of course the famous last

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<v Speaker 1>words are you know this time is different, but is

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<v Speaker 1>this time different?

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<v Speaker 2>Let's take a look.

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<v Speaker 1>So there's a lot of things that are different. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>so we're not in twenty seventeen, we're not twenty twenty more.

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<v Speaker 1>This time, we know from the fifty year historical cycle,

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<v Speaker 1>the four phases. We went from the retail adoption to

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<v Speaker 1>now the institutional sovereign phase, so we know this is different.

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<v Speaker 1>So remember in the instant, the in the eruption phase,

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<v Speaker 1>the first phase, retail comes in, they buy up everything.

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<v Speaker 2>But we're talking people with.

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<v Speaker 1>Hundreds of dollars or thousands of dollars, maybe hundreds of

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<v Speaker 1>thousands of dollars. In the institutional in the sovereign phase,

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<v Speaker 1>we're talking about hundreds of billion dollars. A matter of fact,

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<v Speaker 1>year to date, just here in twenty twenty five, we've

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<v Speaker 1>had over almost eighty five billion dollars has gone into bitcoin.

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<v Speaker 1>Wall Street Institution place eighty five billion. So we're talking big,

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<v Speaker 1>big numbers.

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<v Speaker 2>Now.

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<v Speaker 1>Another thing is that we've gone from having headwinds to tellwinds.

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<v Speaker 2>What do I mean by that?

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<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin since it's been around, has faced massive opposition. In

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<v Speaker 1>the early days, it wasn't really well known, so it

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<v Speaker 1>didn't have a lot of opposition. But the political regime,

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<v Speaker 1>the central bankers, the politicians have always been against it.

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<v Speaker 1>The Biden administration was very aggressively against it. As a

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<v Speaker 1>matter of fact, they practiced Operation Choke point two point zero,

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<v Speaker 1>where they basically blocked banks from being involved in bitcoin.

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<v Speaker 1>You couldn't even send money from your bank to bitcoin.

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<v Speaker 1>Elizabeth Warren ran on a platform literally called the anti

0:10:39.000 --> 0:10:45.480
<v Speaker 1>Crypto Army. So heavy, heavy, heavy, heavy headwinds obstacles. Right,

0:10:45.800 --> 0:10:48.840
<v Speaker 1>So bitcoin has gotten to where it's at in spite

0:10:48.960 --> 0:10:50.920
<v Speaker 1>of all of that, and all of a sudden that

0:10:51.000 --> 0:10:53.560
<v Speaker 1>switched like a one hundred and eighty degree turned. The

0:10:53.600 --> 0:10:58.400
<v Speaker 1>headwinds now became tailwinds. Now we have the entire United

0:10:58.480 --> 0:11:02.520
<v Speaker 1>States government opening up a strategic Bitcoin reserve, opening up

0:11:02.520 --> 0:11:05.079
<v Speaker 1>a sovereign wealth fund to buy bitcoin. You have the President,

0:11:05.760 --> 0:11:09.440
<v Speaker 1>the president's companies, the president's sons taking billions of dollars.

0:11:09.480 --> 0:11:12.199
<v Speaker 1>They dis announced to taking two point five billion dollars

0:11:12.280 --> 0:11:15.480
<v Speaker 1>to buy more bitcoin. So we went from having massive

0:11:15.480 --> 0:11:18.880
<v Speaker 1>headwinds to now having massive tellwins. So how much more

0:11:18.920 --> 0:11:21.760
<v Speaker 1>does that change the trajectory of where that goes in

0:11:21.800 --> 0:11:24.360
<v Speaker 1>the future. Now, the one thing we have to understand

0:11:24.360 --> 0:11:27.760
<v Speaker 1>about this is that because we now have what we

0:11:27.840 --> 0:11:29.920
<v Speaker 1>call the smart money, you and I were dumb. The

0:11:29.920 --> 0:11:31.960
<v Speaker 1>smart money is the institutions, right, the people that are

0:11:31.960 --> 0:11:37.880
<v Speaker 1>really connected politically also financially, they front run this. They're

0:11:37.960 --> 0:11:42.079
<v Speaker 1>already taking position, and so are you. But what happens

0:11:42.160 --> 0:11:44.959
<v Speaker 1>is when they take positions, then they it causes some

0:11:45.080 --> 0:11:48.640
<v Speaker 1>compression potentially, So we've gone from having massive headwinds to

0:11:48.679 --> 0:11:51.800
<v Speaker 1>now having massive tailwinds. We have huge amounts of money

0:11:51.840 --> 0:11:54.280
<v Speaker 1>coming in, but it could already be front running this

0:11:54.640 --> 0:11:56.920
<v Speaker 1>and it could potentially compress this. We have to take

0:11:56.960 --> 0:11:59.640
<v Speaker 1>all of that into consideration when we're trying to figure

0:11:59.640 --> 0:12:03.040
<v Speaker 1>out where this goes. But based off of this, what

0:12:03.080 --> 0:12:05.280
<v Speaker 1>should we be doing well? The first thing we would

0:12:05.320 --> 0:12:08.240
<v Speaker 1>do is I always built my whole career on a saying.

0:12:08.400 --> 0:12:11.559
<v Speaker 1>I think as Tony Robbins that said, success leaves clues.

0:12:11.720 --> 0:12:13.720
<v Speaker 1>So you find other people that are already successful, you

0:12:13.800 --> 0:12:15.720
<v Speaker 1>do about the same things, you get about the same results.

0:12:16.240 --> 0:12:19.320
<v Speaker 1>So when you see, you know, Larry Fink, the largest

0:12:19.320 --> 0:12:21.760
<v Speaker 1>asset manager in the world head a black rock saying

0:12:22.120 --> 0:12:22.880
<v Speaker 1>I bought bitcoin.

0:12:23.040 --> 0:12:24.640
<v Speaker 2>When you have ray Alio, the large you.

0:12:24.600 --> 0:12:25.920
<v Speaker 1>Know, the founder of the largest hedge fund in the

0:12:25.920 --> 0:12:28.400
<v Speaker 1>world saying I bought bitcoin. You have a President Trump,

0:12:28.440 --> 0:12:30.920
<v Speaker 1>the founder or the leader of the free world saying

0:12:31.160 --> 0:12:33.959
<v Speaker 1>I'm buying billions of dollars in bitcoin, but your cousin,

0:12:34.240 --> 0:12:37.040
<v Speaker 1>or your hairstylist or your driver is telling you that

0:12:37.040 --> 0:12:38.960
<v Speaker 1>bitcoin is a Ponzi scam.

0:12:39.360 --> 0:12:40.480
<v Speaker 2>Who do you think you should listen to?

0:12:40.880 --> 0:12:43.000
<v Speaker 1>Okay, So the first thing is we want to understand

0:12:43.040 --> 0:12:45.240
<v Speaker 1>we are not more connected or smarter than they are.

0:12:45.840 --> 0:12:47.520
<v Speaker 1>But what we don't want to do is we don't

0:12:47.520 --> 0:12:49.640
<v Speaker 1>want to be gambling. Okay, we don't want to be

0:12:49.720 --> 0:12:53.400
<v Speaker 1>jumping into this blindfolded. We want to understand what's going on,

0:12:53.440 --> 0:12:56.000
<v Speaker 1>what we expect to happen, and we want to position

0:12:56.200 --> 0:12:57.800
<v Speaker 1>ourselfs intelligently.

0:12:58.200 --> 0:12:58.880
<v Speaker 2>So we want to.

0:12:58.920 --> 0:13:01.839
<v Speaker 1>Understand the signs that can tell us where we're at

0:13:01.840 --> 0:13:04.439
<v Speaker 1>in the cycle. Now, if we can understand this, then

0:13:04.480 --> 0:13:07.560
<v Speaker 1>you and I have the ability to front run the institution.

0:13:07.640 --> 0:13:09.719
<v Speaker 1>So instead of them get in front of us, we

0:13:09.800 --> 0:13:11.839
<v Speaker 1>have the ability to play the game with them. Now,

0:13:11.840 --> 0:13:15.760
<v Speaker 1>there's three pillars to understand this, all right. The first

0:13:15.760 --> 0:13:18.480
<v Speaker 1>one is there's macro cycles. Okay, it's already kind of

0:13:18.480 --> 0:13:20.199
<v Speaker 1>showed you that these are the liquidy levels. We looked

0:13:20.200 --> 0:13:22.840
<v Speaker 1>at those, the liquidy index, the M two global M

0:13:22.880 --> 0:13:25.800
<v Speaker 1>two growth, things like that, the two year yields. We've

0:13:25.800 --> 0:13:28.000
<v Speaker 1>talked about those, all right. The next thing we want

0:13:28.040 --> 0:13:30.520
<v Speaker 1>to look at is price trends. So I like to

0:13:30.520 --> 0:13:31.280
<v Speaker 1>look at breakouts.

0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:31.960
<v Speaker 2>We talked about that.

0:13:32.840 --> 0:13:34.560
<v Speaker 1>There's a couple that I like to look at. So

0:13:34.600 --> 0:13:36.960
<v Speaker 1>the first thing is one that you could just use.

0:13:37.040 --> 0:13:40.400
<v Speaker 1>This is very simple. This is a two hundred day

0:13:40.520 --> 0:13:43.760
<v Speaker 1>or two hundred weekly moving average. So that's the yellow

0:13:43.800 --> 0:13:47.560
<v Speaker 1>line right here. Anytime the bitcoin price gets down to

0:13:47.679 --> 0:13:51.880
<v Speaker 1>this level, these have always been historic buying opportunities. Like

0:13:51.920 --> 0:13:54.040
<v Speaker 1>imagine if you could have bought here, we're here and

0:13:54.120 --> 0:13:56.560
<v Speaker 1>ridden that up. You bought here and you rode that up.

0:13:56.800 --> 0:13:57.640
<v Speaker 1>You bought here and you.

0:13:57.679 --> 0:13:59.760
<v Speaker 2>Rode that up. Okay, So anytime it gets.

0:13:59.600 --> 0:14:02.600
<v Speaker 1>Down to the level, those are historic buying opportunities, and

0:14:02.640 --> 0:14:05.400
<v Speaker 1>we know that we're nowhere near that level right now.

0:14:05.480 --> 0:14:07.160
<v Speaker 2>Okay. Now, another one we want to look at is

0:14:07.240 --> 0:14:08.360
<v Speaker 2>on chain data.

0:14:08.400 --> 0:14:10.400
<v Speaker 1>The beauty of bitcoin is gives us this whole new

0:14:10.480 --> 0:14:12.160
<v Speaker 1>data set that we don't have with other assets.

0:14:12.400 --> 0:14:13.760
<v Speaker 2>Now, I'm going to show you three that I use.

0:14:13.800 --> 0:14:16.160
<v Speaker 1>If you want to know the top five on chain

0:14:16.160 --> 0:14:18.720
<v Speaker 1>indicators that I use, then you should probably be watching.

0:14:18.960 --> 0:14:20.640
<v Speaker 2>I'll go ahead. Let's just go put that video up

0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:21.480
<v Speaker 2>here or we'll.

0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:23.480
<v Speaker 1>Link it down in the show notes down below. But

0:14:23.560 --> 0:14:25.960
<v Speaker 1>three that we can look at real quickly are the

0:14:26.160 --> 0:14:30.080
<v Speaker 1>mv RV. This is the market value and the realized value.

0:14:30.440 --> 0:14:32.480
<v Speaker 1>And so we can see this is the bitcoin price

0:14:32.480 --> 0:14:35.520
<v Speaker 1>in the black line here, and the blue line is

0:14:35.560 --> 0:14:37.320
<v Speaker 1>the realized.

0:14:36.760 --> 0:14:37.720
<v Speaker 2>Cap market cap.

0:14:38.080 --> 0:14:40.000
<v Speaker 1>But what this is right here is this is the

0:14:40.120 --> 0:14:42.960
<v Speaker 1>MVRV score. Now you can see when it peaks really high,

0:14:43.200 --> 0:14:45.880
<v Speaker 1>we're at the peak of a market, but right now

0:14:46.080 --> 0:14:48.840
<v Speaker 1>it's not peaking anywhere near high, which means we have

0:14:48.920 --> 0:14:51.280
<v Speaker 1>a lot of room to run in this market. I

0:14:51.360 --> 0:14:52.960
<v Speaker 1>like to look at that. Another one we look at

0:14:53.040 --> 0:14:57.200
<v Speaker 1>is this in UPL. This is the net unrealized profit

0:14:57.320 --> 0:15:00.640
<v Speaker 1>and loss. And this tells us sort of the motivations

0:15:00.720 --> 0:15:03.480
<v Speaker 1>or the emotions that people holding bitcoin might feel, and

0:15:03.520 --> 0:15:05.200
<v Speaker 1>they could tell us when they might want to be

0:15:05.200 --> 0:15:07.960
<v Speaker 1>taking profit. And again we can see when this spike's high,

0:15:08.040 --> 0:15:10.680
<v Speaker 1>the bitcoin market spikes high. When this spike's high, the

0:15:10.680 --> 0:15:14.680
<v Speaker 1>bitcoin right high. When this spiked, hie, the bitcoin price

0:15:15.000 --> 0:15:17.840
<v Speaker 1>was high. But here we're nowhere close, which means this

0:15:17.920 --> 0:15:19.960
<v Speaker 1>is probably going to run way up before we get

0:15:19.960 --> 0:15:22.880
<v Speaker 1>some convergence up there. So again we're nowhere near the top.

0:15:23.040 --> 0:15:25.960
<v Speaker 1>Another indicator that we look at is this sop R.

0:15:26.600 --> 0:15:28.920
<v Speaker 1>It's another easy one to understand. This is a spent

0:15:29.120 --> 0:15:32.840
<v Speaker 1>output profit ratio. So again when we understand where people

0:15:32.840 --> 0:15:34.920
<v Speaker 1>are at in profit, we can understand what their emotions

0:15:34.920 --> 0:15:36.600
<v Speaker 1>are and if they might be selling. So for example,

0:15:36.760 --> 0:15:38.560
<v Speaker 1>a lot of people, if they're underwater, they don't want

0:15:38.600 --> 0:15:39.800
<v Speaker 1>to sell right now because they want wait.

0:15:39.720 --> 0:15:40.680
<v Speaker 2>Till they get back in profit.

0:15:40.880 --> 0:15:42.680
<v Speaker 1>But if they're sitting on lots of profits, they might

0:15:42.720 --> 0:15:44.760
<v Speaker 1>want to sell to pay off some debt, buy a

0:15:44.800 --> 0:15:46.880
<v Speaker 1>new house, or just take some cream off the top.

0:15:47.280 --> 0:15:48.760
<v Speaker 2>You never go broke taking a profit.

0:15:48.960 --> 0:15:51.480
<v Speaker 1>And what we can see is when it spikes really high,

0:15:51.520 --> 0:15:56.040
<v Speaker 1>we see bitcoin tops spoke right here, right here.

0:15:56.240 --> 0:15:58.840
<v Speaker 2>But again we are very low. We're nowhere near the top.

0:15:59.040 --> 0:16:01.880
<v Speaker 1>So what these indicat are telling us is that we're

0:16:01.920 --> 0:16:05.120
<v Speaker 1>nowhere near the top of the market cycle yet. So

0:16:05.160 --> 0:16:08.120
<v Speaker 1>we can see that we have the breakout in global equity.

0:16:08.320 --> 0:16:11.240
<v Speaker 2>It just broke out. We're not the high part of it.

0:16:11.240 --> 0:16:12.520
<v Speaker 2>It's just taking off.

0:16:12.960 --> 0:16:16.480
<v Speaker 1>We know that in previous periods like this, bitcoin has

0:16:16.480 --> 0:16:21.400
<v Speaker 1>gone up twenty times, eighty times, one hundred times, and

0:16:21.440 --> 0:16:23.880
<v Speaker 1>we can see that we're nowhere near the top of

0:16:23.880 --> 0:16:27.360
<v Speaker 1>that cycle right now. Okay, so what are the smart

0:16:27.400 --> 0:16:29.880
<v Speaker 1>moves to make in this environment. Well, again, we don't

0:16:29.880 --> 0:16:31.840
<v Speaker 1>want to go in blindly. We don't want to gamble here.

0:16:32.040 --> 0:16:35.400
<v Speaker 1>We want to look at data and position intelligently. But

0:16:35.480 --> 0:16:39.240
<v Speaker 1>we do understand that the clock is ticking. The breakout happened,

0:16:39.480 --> 0:16:42.080
<v Speaker 1>the quidy is rushing in. Bitcoin sat at all time highs,

0:16:42.440 --> 0:16:44.960
<v Speaker 1>and we know that these cycles don't last that long.

0:16:45.120 --> 0:16:46.440
<v Speaker 2>So the clock is ticking now.

0:16:46.480 --> 0:16:48.680
<v Speaker 1>Most people they do it the wrong way, which is

0:16:48.680 --> 0:16:51.680
<v Speaker 1>why most people are average. They're not the one percent

0:16:51.720 --> 0:16:53.880
<v Speaker 1>that are wealthy. And they chase price. So what they're

0:16:53.920 --> 0:16:56.440
<v Speaker 1>doing is they're looking at the price. Well, Bitcoin right

0:16:56.480 --> 0:16:58.120
<v Speaker 1>now at the time of this video is don't one

0:16:58.200 --> 0:17:01.760
<v Speaker 1>hundred and five thousand. It's very well expensive compared to

0:17:01.840 --> 0:17:05.080
<v Speaker 1>what expensive compared to when it was two hundred buckssive

0:17:05.480 --> 0:17:07.840
<v Speaker 1>expensive compared to where it could be in a year

0:17:07.960 --> 0:17:11.359
<v Speaker 1>or five years from now. So they're chasing price. What

0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:15.560
<v Speaker 1>smart money does is they chase liquidity. We understand that

0:17:15.600 --> 0:17:19.280
<v Speaker 1>when liquidity, when the money supply increases, asset prices go

0:17:19.359 --> 0:17:22.000
<v Speaker 1>up as well. We want the lead indicator so we

0:17:22.000 --> 0:17:25.439
<v Speaker 1>can see liquidity breaking out and about to rise. We

0:17:25.520 --> 0:17:28.040
<v Speaker 1>know that asset prices will continue to rise on a

0:17:28.040 --> 0:17:31.960
<v Speaker 1>three month lag. Okay, now we also understand that the Super.

0:17:31.600 --> 0:17:33.280
<v Speaker 2>Bowl signal is very rare.

0:17:33.400 --> 0:17:37.160
<v Speaker 1>When we see liquidity breakout, we see two year rates

0:17:37.160 --> 0:17:40.119
<v Speaker 1>starting to drop, and where we see we're in the

0:17:40.119 --> 0:17:44.480
<v Speaker 1>fifty year cycle, all three of those converging is extremely rare, rare,

0:17:44.520 --> 0:17:47.800
<v Speaker 1>and it is extremely powerful. So what winners do is

0:17:47.840 --> 0:17:50.080
<v Speaker 1>they prepare. They don't chase the price. They look at

0:17:50.119 --> 0:17:52.520
<v Speaker 1>the data and they prepare and they position.

0:17:52.840 --> 0:17:53.240
<v Speaker 2>Now, if you

0:17:53.280 --> 0:17:56.040
<v Speaker 1>Want to know more about understanding where the price is

0:17:56.080 --> 0:18:01.200
<v Speaker 1>going by let's say twenty thirty, twenty forty, in twenty fifty,

0:18:01.520 --> 0:18:02.920
<v Speaker 1>I have a video for you might want to watch

0:18:02.960 --> 0:18:08.040
<v Speaker 1>this video right here and hope to see over them