Speaker 1: The volume.
Speaker 2: All right. Time to bring in Chad Millman, co host
Speaker 2: of the Favorites. We always call this sharp or square,
Speaker 2: all of our odds provided by DraftKings. We will start
Speaker 2: because Chad and I were texting the other day on
Speaker 2: the wildfires and the devastating damage in southern California. You know,
Speaker 2: it's interesting, Chad. One of the things I try not
Speaker 2: to fall into, and it's just rampant on the internet,
Speaker 2: is making things political when they don't necessarily need to be,
Speaker 2: you know, and the areas that were devastated, Malibu and Palisades,
Speaker 2: specific Palisades. I've actually driven around a lot over the
Speaker 2: last several years because I was looking to buy a
Speaker 2: home in Pacific Palisades. And one of the reasons I didn't,
Speaker 2: and my wife and I didn't is because the inaccessibility
Speaker 2: of these windy roads and canyons. And I had said
Speaker 2: to my wife, if I got into trouble or had
Speaker 2: a heart attack, I mean it could take forty minutes
Speaker 2: for somebody to get here you an ambulance. And so
Speaker 2: you had this, You had four concurrent wildfires, eighty mile
Speaker 2: an hour winds, which meant planes were not allowed to
Speaker 2: fly over and drop water. So two things happened. Four
Speaker 2: concurrent wildfires historically bad wins, not even in fire season,
Speaker 2: and you couldn't use planes. It's like the world's worst tsunami.
Speaker 2: You can blame the Coastguard. You can't prepare for it.
Speaker 2: And if people don't know this area and Topanga Canyon
Speaker 2: and Malibu, they have no idea what this place is
Speaker 2: like like most people that work nine to five. You
Speaker 2: can't live in Malibu because you can't get in and
Speaker 2: out of it in the morning. So you know, people
Speaker 2: are making this to completely. And I voted for Rick
Speaker 2: Caruso over Karen Bass, you know, because I thought the
Speaker 2: city needed somebody who was a development a builder for
Speaker 2: their homeless issues. I thought he could really solve that
Speaker 2: and he had a real detailed plan on this and
Speaker 2: I got nothing four against Karen Bass. But sometimes things
Speaker 2: happened historically and you can't prepare or solve it. And
Speaker 2: I'm not saying I mean they had these water tanks available.
Speaker 2: They blew through three of them, millions of gallons of water,
Speaker 2: very very quickly. They could have had six of those reservoirs,
Speaker 2: not three. It wouldn't have solved it. So it's one
Speaker 2: of those things for people asking me, do we have
Speaker 2: to make it political? Like this thing was historical. People
Speaker 2: don't understand the day of those They told you a
Speaker 2: day out in Los Angeles two days before there was
Speaker 2: a weather warning and they put the list of how
Speaker 2: strong the winds would be, and everybody in town was like, Oh,
Speaker 2: this is trouble. This is big trouble. So there was
Speaker 2: some sense it could be, it could be happening. But
Speaker 2: and now there's arson. There's there's discussions of arson on
Speaker 2: some of these later fires. But I'm okay. The firefighters
Speaker 2: are amazing, but I don't think people understand this region.
Speaker 2: This area is a jungle. It is trees and canyons
Speaker 2: and narrow roads. And the fires were so intense on
Speaker 2: the flat lower levels it made it very difficult to
Speaker 2: get up and solve the upper tier, the upper parts
Speaker 2: of it. So that's my rant on it. I'm fine.
Speaker 2: I've got friends who have lost homes. It's gutting, it's awful,
Speaker 2: it's terrible. But I just wish people sometimes not everything
Speaker 2: would have to be about politics.
Speaker 3: This was a historically bad two days of four concurrent wildfires,
Speaker 3: an eighty mile an hour winds.
Speaker 1: And four concurrent wildfires. By the way, if you look
Speaker 1: at the maps, it's not isolated to four sections of
Speaker 1: Greater Los Angeles that are all right next to each other.
Speaker 1: You can go from the Palisades to Pasadena, which are
Speaker 1: not on top of each other, and you're getting massive
Speaker 1: fires in both places. I, like you, have been struck
Speaker 1: by people who are saying this isn't global warming, this
Speaker 1: is the City of Los Angeles' inability to manage the
Speaker 1: catastrophe by not having water or not having police and
Speaker 1: fire where they need to have them. It all strikes
Speaker 1: me as a little disingenuous, because in either capacity, something
Speaker 1: is causing this. It's not the police and fire and
Speaker 1: lack of water that are causing eighty to one hundred
Speaker 1: mile and how or winds. And I don't really understand
Speaker 1: why it has to get political at all. Like you,
Speaker 1: someone's got to get people out, someone's got to go
Speaker 1: manage the fire. They are doing the best job they
Speaker 1: possibly can. I'm always struck by when I'm driving around LA,
Speaker 1: especially in the hills, how the entire area is constructed
Speaker 1: like a Jenga set. Right. You see, there's a house
Speaker 1: on every single inch of property going up these winding roads.
Speaker 1: I know Palisades a little bit less and it's astonishing
Speaker 1: to me the way the city and the hills, especially
Speaker 1: houses have been constructed there. It's not surprising when you're
Speaker 1: seeing an area that is so compact with housing. The
Speaker 1: fire is jumping from one place to the next. There's
Speaker 1: no opportunity for it to stop because there's so much
Speaker 1: fuel there. It is as someone who's three, you know,
Speaker 1: a thousand miles away and has a lot of friends
Speaker 1: like you who are in the area, it's frightening to watch.
Speaker 1: It's frightening to see the stories that are coming out
Speaker 1: of there. It's frightened to see the images. It's it
Speaker 1: really truly is apocalyptic. It's yeah, it's astonished.
Speaker 2: I ended up buying a home in an area that
Speaker 2: is easy to access, get in and out of, about
Speaker 2: you know, five miles away from Palisades, but it's a
Speaker 2: jungle when you drive through it, it's this lush, gorgeous trees,
Speaker 2: brush canyons. It's it's my first take driving through it was, oh,
Speaker 2: I can't live here. It's just too hard to access.
Speaker 2: So you're asking these brave and courageous firefighters and these
Speaker 2: people of La County, who are remarkably courageous, strident, tough.
Speaker 2: You're asking them you can't use planes. The winds are
Speaker 2: eighty miles an hour. People are running out of their cars.
Speaker 2: It was it was a scene from an awful movie.
Speaker 2: And listen, it's it's just when you get these natural disasters. Boy,
Speaker 2: everybody's looking for perfection and everybody's pointing fingers. There are
Speaker 2: so many people, a thousand homes. I mean, you will
Speaker 2: look at area aerial footage now, you cannot believe, Chad,
Speaker 2: what it looks like. It is literally like a zip code,
Speaker 2: every house burnt down.
Speaker 1: It's awful. It looks like it looks like what we
Speaker 1: see when we get images from war torn countries where
Speaker 1: it's just buildings and cars that are completely burned out,
Speaker 1: except it's in the middle of one of the wealthiest
Speaker 1: areas in the entire country. It's it's astonishing and devastating
Speaker 1: to look at it, truly is. It's stunning. Yeah. So
Speaker 1: just just I'm glad you're okay. I'm glad you're okay.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I know this is a somber tone, but
Speaker 2: I just you know, I thought about this today. People,
Speaker 2: I've gotten I've gotten fifty texts in the last two days,
Speaker 2: and I'm more of the lucky I'm one of the
Speaker 2: lucky key ones I've got. You know, some kids around
Speaker 2: that you know, have kind of been on pins and needles.
Speaker 2: But it is, uh, there's there are some heroes and
Speaker 2: all this stuff because there were houses.
Speaker 1: It ever make you want to leave California.
Speaker 2: You know, my wife's not a fan for a lot
Speaker 2: of reasons. Uh the expense. You know, it's every place
Speaker 2: has their issues, as that's pretty been pretty well documented.
Speaker 2: I have purchased a place in Chicago, and so I'm
Speaker 2: spending more and more time in Chicago because my wife
Speaker 2: has given so much to me in our relationship and
Speaker 2: sacrificed and I've never sacrificed for her and living by
Speaker 2: her family, and I love the people that's out in California.
Speaker 2: There's so many things I love about it. But you know,
Speaker 2: my wife's not as big a fan, and she misses
Speaker 2: her sister and her family in the Midwest. And by
Speaker 2: the way, I love Chicago and I still love la
Speaker 2: but you know, it's just just just one of those
Speaker 2: things where I don't want to ever use a singular
Speaker 2: reason for being mobile. I like Connecticut. You know, people
Speaker 2: always used to poke fun at Connecticut. It's boring, and
Speaker 2: I'm like.
Speaker 1: I was there a decade. It was fine.
Speaker 2: I had great friends, great neighbors, high schools were great.
Speaker 2: My kids loved it. So I think there's a lot
Speaker 2: of places in this country to live. And I think
Speaker 2: the people in every place I've lived in Nevada, Oregon, Washington, California, Connecticut.
Speaker 2: I spent a lot of time in Rhode Island. Everywhere
Speaker 2: I go people are great. Sometimes the politicians aren't, sometimes
Speaker 2: the regulations aren't, but the people are amazing everywhere I go.
Speaker 1: Well, look, you know how much I left Chicago as
Speaker 1: a Chicago in or you know, kid from the suburbs
Speaker 1: of Chicago. I did see your picture the other day
Speaker 1: wearing your new fancy winner coat, and I felt like
Speaker 1: he needs to wear a hat, Like it's you can't
Speaker 1: just go with a coat. You got a layer and
Speaker 1: you got to wear a hat. Yeah I did. It's
Speaker 1: really important, especially like we're you live in the city.
Speaker 1: Where are your places? You got wind tunnels coming down there.
Speaker 1: I know that's dangerous right there.
Speaker 2: I know I wore a hat later in the day. Okay,
Speaker 2: let's start.
Speaker 1: I will tell you one thing and you'll appreciate this.
Speaker 1: I know people don't want to hear weather talk, but
Speaker 1: I will. I will tell you one story and people
Speaker 1: will like this. So you know, when we on the
Speaker 1: Favorites on the Volume Podcast Network, we do a contest
Speaker 1: every year, a season long pick of contest. We give
Speaker 1: away one hundred thousand dollars over the course of the year.
Speaker 1: Don't worry, it's not your money, Colin. I just want
Speaker 1: you to know we're not giving away your money, but
Speaker 1: we do give away. The winner of the season long
Speaker 1: contest gets forty thousand dollars first place prize. So we
Speaker 1: had the winner on the show today. The winner, by
Speaker 1: the way, discovered the Favorites podcast because he's a fan
Speaker 1: of Colin Cowherd and over the years he has seen
Speaker 1: me either on television with you at ESPN or on
Speaker 1: this show with you through the Volume and the various
Speaker 1: things that you've been kind enough to have me on
Speaker 1: and now with The Favorites on the Volume Podcast Network.
Speaker 1: So that's how we discovered us. His job, he is
Speaker 1: a farmer in bow Bell's, North Dakota, which is a
Speaker 1: speck of a town with three hundred people. And he
Speaker 1: lives outside bow Bells, which is within the Canadian border
Speaker 1: shouting distance, right. So of course I'm like, you don't
Speaker 1: get I said to him, you don't get days off
Speaker 1: as a farmer. And North Dakota gets cold. What kind
Speaker 1: of coat are you wearing it to stay warm? And
Speaker 1: so we went through he's layering. He's got a good
Speaker 1: car heart coat. That's how he stays warm when he's
Speaker 1: in the tractor and he's watching red Zone while he's
Speaker 1: making bets. That's how he's doing it. I feel like
Speaker 1: you need to make sure you're layering. I just want
Speaker 1: you to be comfortable when you're in Chicago. I don't
Speaker 1: want you to find any reason.
Speaker 2: People also like those two cities in the country get
Speaker 2: criticized more but are more fun to be in than
Speaker 2: Los Angeles. To Chicago, La can be a ball. I
Speaker 2: absolutely love Chicago. I've said my favorite city in the
Speaker 2: world is London. My second favorite city is Chicago.
Speaker 1: Dude, my favorite city in the world is London. Oh,
Speaker 1: my second favorite city is Chicago.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're the fourth person in the last month who
Speaker 2: has said the exact same thing. I was just talking
Speaker 2: to a lady the other day about something. She said
Speaker 2: the same thing. She was a director in Hollywood who
Speaker 2: was on the Fox lot. And I, my wife couldn't
Speaker 2: live in London. It's a bit dreary and gray. But
Speaker 2: I grew up in the coast of Washington. I could
Speaker 2: live in London tomorrow. If if I retire tomorrow and
Speaker 2: just it's over, I would be in London in Chicago,
Speaker 2: and you know, I would occasionally go for a sunny
Speaker 2: week in Miami or something. But I for those listening,
Speaker 2: if you've never gone to London, do it in your lifetime.
Speaker 1: It is historic.
Speaker 2: It is beautiful. The architecture, the people, the parks, their
Speaker 2: taxi system, the food's gotten much better, the nightlife, the pubs.
Speaker 2: It's just fantastic.
Speaker 1: I love it. It's every alley you can imagine, oh
Speaker 1: history that happened there. It's you know, I met Stacey,
Speaker 1: I met my wife in London. We were both students,
Speaker 1: and I wanted to move back. For the past thirty years,
Speaker 1: I'm dying to go back. Yeah.
Speaker 2: And if you if you save up enough money and
Speaker 2: you have a budget. Kensington, Paddington, maryle Born, Oh.
Speaker 1: My god, oh god, this we can do a whole
Speaker 1: podcast just about we're to live in London. Oh I
Speaker 1: love it all right. People would love that too.
Speaker 2: All of our odds provided by DraftKings. I'm gonna take
Speaker 2: Ohio State minus six against Texas, and I think Chip
Speaker 2: Kelly's a big advantage for Ohio State this season. So
Speaker 2: it's the first time college football playoffs or the NFL.
Speaker 2: We're gonna play sixteen games, and I think over the
Speaker 2: course of a season Ohio State we think about that
Speaker 2: Michigan game, but they've really changed their offense, added layers
Speaker 2: to it. And like the NFL, the Chiefs lost to
Speaker 2: the Raid late last year, that's okay, Well, it's now
Speaker 2: okay in college football you can be awful at home
Speaker 2: against Michigan and get into the playoffs. I have watched
Speaker 2: Ohio State's last two games and the games before Michigan.
Speaker 2: I think they're unbeatable at the college level. I think
Speaker 2: they're playing with a violence on defense, an explosion, and
Speaker 2: a consistency on offense. I think Will Howard had one
Speaker 2: awful game and a couple other average ones. I think
Speaker 2: he's really good. And my problem with Texas is always
Speaker 2: the same thing. They're a splash offense. They will score,
Speaker 2: but they are not consistent penalties pass blocking when yours
Speaker 2: is hot and cold. I think Ohio State is going
Speaker 2: to run through this thing to the national championship. What
Speaker 2: do the guys say, sharper square.
Speaker 1: It's a little bit square, and there's some recency bias
Speaker 1: that is going into your thinking. I'm with you. I
Speaker 1: think that the way Ohio State has played. We talked
Speaker 1: about this heading into the playff the Ohio State fans
Speaker 1: were so caught up in losing to Michigan. They had
Speaker 1: kind of lost the forest for the trees and didn't
Speaker 1: understand the new dynamic in college football, which is doesn't
Speaker 1: matter who you lose to during the regular season. You
Speaker 1: just got to get to the playoffs and then you
Speaker 1: got to dominate, and then you can judge success based
Speaker 1: on that. Winning or losing That one game against Michigan
Speaker 1: is not the key factor in whether or not your
Speaker 1: season has been successful. So kudos to Ryan Day, Kudos
Speaker 1: to Chip Kelly, Kudos to that staff for turning around
Speaker 1: their season and coming out of the playoffs into the
Speaker 1: playoffs so hot, so dominant, doing things that they hadn't
Speaker 1: been doing during the regular season. Really utilizing Jeremiah Smith
Speaker 1: in a way that makes him look like a man
Speaker 1: amongst boys. However, the same recency bias that is making
Speaker 1: you think Ohio State is the right side is also
Speaker 1: making this number leak a little bit higher than it should. Right.
Speaker 1: The power ratings on this are basically Ohio State minus three,
Speaker 1: maybe minus four. It's at minus six and as good
Speaker 1: as the Ohio State defense is, Texas defense has been
Speaker 1: as good all season long. Some people will say the
Speaker 1: best defense we've seen that defense and what they've done
Speaker 1: quin yours. Yes, he's been inconsistent and we saw sort
Speaker 1: of the peak of their inability to move the ball
Speaker 1: offensively when they played Georgia in that SEC title game,
Speaker 1: but their defense kept them in that game the entire time.
Speaker 1: Wise guys will tell you, sure, quin Ewers hasn't been consistent,
Speaker 1: but he did get hurt in the last couple of games.
Speaker 1: He's been much much better than he had been as
Speaker 1: he was coming back from the injury. So I do
Speaker 1: think that the wise guys here are looking at Texas
Speaker 1: because the number has gotten a little too big. It's
Speaker 1: almost a touchdown. Six points. That's that's just a lot
Speaker 1: of points.
Speaker 2: So it's been a year in which I tend to
Speaker 2: play underdogs, and it's been a favorite year. And so
Speaker 2: I've had a really bad year betting NFL. And if
Speaker 2: you look at college football and pro football this year,
Speaker 2: it's look at the playoff. It's been the year of
Speaker 2: the favorites. Now, some people tell you because of the
Speaker 2: new kickoff in the NFL, where the ball can get
Speaker 2: put at the thirty five yard line, it's giving good
Speaker 2: quarterbacks an advantage over the course of a game on
Speaker 2: possessions that they didn't necessarily need to win. All eight
Speaker 2: divisions were won by the eight best quarterbacks in their division.
Speaker 2: It had become a quarterback centric league a decade ago.
Speaker 2: That was an edge the new kickoff rules that new
Speaker 2: that the better quarterbacks didn't need. They were winning despite that,
Speaker 2: and now they're winning in clear fashion. That said, I'm
Speaker 2: going to take the Steelers plus nine and a half
Speaker 2: against the Ravens. Zay Flowers is out. I know Pittsburgh
Speaker 2: hasn't been playing well, but I I just watched Baltimore
Speaker 2: klobber Pittsburgh. I do know this. Pittsburgh has a ton
Speaker 2: of pride, very good on defense. Baltimore in the playoffs.
Speaker 2: Memo to nobody to everybody that's watched them the last
Speaker 2: six years. They tend to play better in the regular
Speaker 2: season than the postseason. This number is out of whack
Speaker 2: to me. I'll take Pittsburgh plus nine and a half
Speaker 2: sharper square.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's sharp. The number got to ten and now
Speaker 1: it got back down to nine and a half, so
Speaker 1: there was some buyback there. I wouldn't be surprised if
Speaker 1: it goes a little bit lower. It was much higher.
Speaker 1: It was much lower. Earlier in the week it was
Speaker 1: just seven and a half, and when it was seven
Speaker 1: and a half, it got meed up quite a bit
Speaker 1: by the wise guys. You mentioned a couple of really
Speaker 1: important things, and this is something I'm going to spend
Speaker 1: a lot of time in the offseason doing. Is really
Speaker 1: taking a look at the impact of the new kickoff
Speaker 1: rules on how teams covered or didn't cover, and did
Speaker 1: it really favor the favorites, because I think there was
Speaker 1: sort of some unintended consequence here. If you have a
Speaker 1: good quarterback and you're at the third you complete two passes,
Speaker 1: all of a sudden you're on the other side of
Speaker 1: the field. If it's fourth and short, you might be
Speaker 1: more inclined to go for it earlier in the game
Speaker 1: on fourth down because you feel like, well, I might
Speaker 1: have a chance to get back here more quickly because
Speaker 1: of the way the kickoff rules are, and I also
Speaker 1: think coaches are just more inclined to go for it
Speaker 1: on fourth down. So a combination of the kickoff rules
Speaker 1: and more aggressive decision making based on the analytics has
Speaker 1: made it easier and more likely that favorites are going
Speaker 1: to cover. Will that be a trend that goes forward,
Speaker 1: We don't know yet. I want to have a year's
Speaker 1: worth of data now that we have it, to look
Speaker 1: at it and review, because I think it's fascinating and
Speaker 1: I think it will be something that people have to
Speaker 1: make adjustments for going into next year. On this game,
Speaker 1: you mentioned the game they played on the twenty first
Speaker 1: of December. That game was pretty close through about three quarters.
Speaker 1: It was the last ninety seconds of the quarter when
Speaker 1: things started to go out of control for the Steelers, right,
Speaker 1: But one of the big factors in that game, Joey Porter,
Speaker 1: missed the entire second half. When he was out, it
Speaker 1: went from the Steelers having a little bit of wiggle
Speaker 1: room to stay close to meeting to all of a
Speaker 1: sudden be perfect, and they couldn't be perfect rustled through
Speaker 1: that pick six. They lost thirty four to seventeen. So
Speaker 1: this is a huge number in a game where people
Speaker 1: are thinking about the Steelers, who, by the way, that
Speaker 1: was the second game of what became a four game
Speaker 1: losing streak in which they didn't score more than seventeen points.
Speaker 1: The Ravens haven't scored fewer than thirty points since early December,
Speaker 1: so there is a huge We're talking about recency bias
Speaker 1: right with Texas and Iowa State. The recency bias in
Speaker 1: this game is massively in favor of the Ravens, which
Speaker 1: is when you want to play the Steelers. Also, this series, historically,
Speaker 1: it's never this big even number and it's always a
Speaker 1: game that's within the spread. So that's another reason why
Speaker 1: you might want to think about the Steelers.
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Speaker 2: My favorite bet of the weekend is Eagles at home
Speaker 2: minus four and a half. Jordan Love is not healthy,
Speaker 2: Christian Watson is not available. Now they have depth at
Speaker 2: wide receiver. But I thought before the concussion, I really
Speaker 2: thought Jalen Hurts was playing for about a month straight.
Speaker 2: I thought the offense was about as good as it
Speaker 2: could be.
Speaker 1: I thought, the.
Speaker 2: First of all, they are good enough to just run
Speaker 2: between the tackles, and they were doing that. Plus outside
Speaker 2: the tackles, plush, throwing deep. Everything was humming. Green Bay
Speaker 2: is a team Jordan Love us cut down on mistakes.
Speaker 2: But the organization told you in the offseason we're gonna
Speaker 2: we're gonna pivot off our identity. It's a little too
Speaker 2: much Jordan Love and he can be.
Speaker 1: A bit reckless.
Speaker 2: So they become a team kind of built to play
Speaker 2: with the lead power, run game, control the clock. You
Speaker 2: will not do that against Philadelphia. Their best hope as
Speaker 2: a good first quarter offense is to score early, control
Speaker 2: the tempo. But I think this is a game where
Speaker 2: Philadelphia will control the clock and Green Bay will be
Speaker 2: forced into situations to make splash plays, and Jordan Love
Speaker 2: and I like him, can get a little Sam Darnold
Speaker 2: on you really fast. I like Philadelphia a lot in
Speaker 2: this spot. Sharper square.
Speaker 1: So the wise guys were with you when the line
Speaker 1: opened at three and a half. There's a three and half.
Speaker 1: I betted at three and a half. At four, I
Speaker 1: bet it at four four and a half. It's getting into
Speaker 1: that range where you're still going to find professional betters
Speaker 1: who love the Eagles for everything you just said. But
Speaker 1: Matt Lafleur has a lot of respect in the betting community.
Speaker 1: He has been one of the better coaches against the
Speaker 1: spread during his tenure, especially as a dog. They are
Speaker 1: starting to see him as Mike Tomlin asking the way
Speaker 1: he can scheme not just the first fifteen scripted plays,
Speaker 1: but throughout a game and keep his team in a
Speaker 1: very close game, especially like four and a half points
Speaker 1: in a playoff game between these two teams is a lot.
Speaker 1: So there is a portion of the betting community that
Speaker 1: is looking to buy the Packers at plus four and
Speaker 1: a half from an on the field scheme point of view,
Speaker 1: everyone who's betting on the Eagles is doing it because
Speaker 1: of what you just said. Their defensive line, Jalen Carter,
Speaker 1: Jalen Carter. If you pull the players, which happens, you
Speaker 1: are allowed to vote for All Pro as a player.
Speaker 1: You can't vote for yourself or anyone on your team
Speaker 1: to play with the second most votes with Jalen Carter, like,
Speaker 1: he is just so good right now and so dominant
Speaker 1: and the one thing we know the Packers want to do,
Speaker 1: We've seen him do it all year. You see every
Speaker 1: graphic for every game that is televised with the Packers,
Speaker 1: some point in the first fifteen minutes of game time,
Speaker 1: you're going to see a graphic about how well the
Speaker 1: Packers do with Josh Jacobs and how dominant he is
Speaker 1: running the ball early in the game, and then all
Speaker 1: of a sudden, teams adjust, he doesn't run as well
Speaker 1: later in the game. It's left up to Jordan Love
Speaker 1: and they can't execute as well in the second half.
Speaker 1: So yeah, if people are betting the Eagles, it's because
Speaker 1: of what they can do defensively, not to mention, by
Speaker 1: the way, how good they are in coverage from the
Speaker 1: middle linebacker, from the linebacking position all the way through
Speaker 1: their secondary. Just powerful. Like if I'm buying a Super
Speaker 1: Bowl future right now, I might by the Eagles at
Speaker 1: plus seven hundred. The Lions are about plus two to eighty.
Speaker 1: Do I think there's that big of a delta between
Speaker 1: the lines and the Eagles, given how good the Eagles
Speaker 1: defense is, probably not.
Speaker 2: I like the Bucks at home minus three not the
Speaker 2: best of the line. But here's the issue. Baker Mayfield
Speaker 2: will have a great run game behind him. The Commander's
Speaker 2: run defense below average, The Buccaneers run offense is exceptional.
Speaker 2: Jaden Daniels, a rookie quarterback on the road, will have
Speaker 2: a run game that will struggle Vitavia, and the interior
Speaker 2: d line of the Bucks is pretty impenetrable. So if
Speaker 2: I go into a game and I get the veteran
Speaker 2: quarterback at home, that will have the complement of a
Speaker 2: strong run game that feels like about as good a
Speaker 2: bet as you can have. Bucks minus three sharper square.
Speaker 1: Totally sharp wise. Guys love this spot. They love a
Speaker 1: ball in Baker Mayfield against a rookie quarterback in the playoffs.
Speaker 1: We've got a couple spots here rookie quarterbacks slash quarterbacks
Speaker 1: who are playing in the postseason for the first time. Right,
Speaker 1: we've got three spots. We've got sam Donold, we got
Speaker 1: bow Knicks, we got Jayden Daniels. The wise guys love
Speaker 1: the Bucks here because of Bucky Irving, because of the
Speaker 1: running game, because they think the Commanders have been getting
Speaker 1: by on Jaden Daniels and a little bit of luck,
Speaker 1: and they've got six games. They won. In the final
Speaker 1: seconds of the game, they were barely they were losing
Speaker 1: to Trey Lance right with Jayden Daniels playing. It was
Speaker 1: Jaden Daniels out of the game. Marcus Mariota comes in
Speaker 1: like they were losing to the Eagles. They were going
Speaker 1: to get run off the field against the Eagles until
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts got that concussion, and then they still needed
Speaker 1: a miracle to win that game because Kenny Pickett played
Speaker 1: well for about five minutes in that game, and it
Speaker 1: was the most important five minutes when the Eagles had
Speaker 1: to drive down the field and if not for Devonte
Speaker 1: Smith drop, they win that game. So the Commanders have
Speaker 1: been brilliant. Dan Quinn, great job. Jadan Daniels, rookie of
Speaker 1: the year. But this is the playoffs are a different ballgame,
Speaker 1: and the wise guys are seeing so much love from
Speaker 1: the public for the commanders there on the Buccaneers.
Speaker 2: So Greg co Sell said something on my show today,
Speaker 2: and Nick Wright made fun of me this week. He
Speaker 2: goes in my hurt hierarchy, I had the Rams one
Speaker 2: spot below the Vikings, and he said, once you pick
Speaker 2: the game, you're going to pick the Rams over the Vikings,
Speaker 2: and you have the Vikings over the Rams. I said, no, no, no,
Speaker 2: And then Greg co Sell showed up on my show
Speaker 2: today and he said the Rams defensive line against the
Speaker 2: Vikings offensive line, the film tells you Minnesota is in
Speaker 2: trouble here. Yeah, and so the Rams are getting a
Speaker 2: point and a half. I'm going to listen to Greg
Speaker 2: co Sell. I'm going to go against my belief. I
Speaker 2: do get the better quarterback. I think I get as
Speaker 2: good a coach. I'm at home, and the Rams are
Speaker 2: as healthy as any team in the league right now.
Speaker 2: They have everybody, which is just remarkably good fortune. They
Speaker 2: were beat up until, like I mean, like November first. Yeah,
Speaker 2: Rams plus one and a half Sharper square, totally sharp.
Speaker 1: The line moved from two and a half down to
Speaker 1: one and a half. Honestly, it might be Rams minus
Speaker 1: one by kickoffs. So I do encourage people, if you're
Speaker 1: listening to this, try to get the Rams as an
Speaker 1: underdog if you can. That scenario, a new quarterback to
Speaker 1: the postseason versus a veteran quarterback that is historically at
Speaker 1: a very high percentage advantageous from a cover point of
Speaker 1: view to the veteran quarterback. And Matthew Stafford to me,
Speaker 1: we've talked about this before. If there are any quarterback
Speaker 1: I don't want to have the ball at the end
Speaker 1: of the game if I have bet the other side,
Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford is top five, right, Like it's it's Stafford,
Speaker 1: it's Mahomes, it's Josh Allen, it's a little bit of
Speaker 1: Lamar like those are the quarterbacks that you really are
Speaker 1: a Fred Joe Burrow, like, those are the quarterbacks that
Speaker 1: you're afraid of. Whise guys feel the same way. They
Speaker 1: love Matthew Stafford. The thing that gets interesting, and this
Speaker 1: helps you justify a little bit the hierarchy and why
Speaker 1: you had the Rams one below the Vikings. If you
Speaker 1: look at the Rams after that Bills game, where Matthew
Speaker 1: Stafford was nearly the play perfect and they played perfect football,
Speaker 1: and they played the kind of football that everyone who
Speaker 1: has been backing the Rams and loves the Rams knows
Speaker 1: they can play. It was a perfect Sean McVay game.
Speaker 1: Kyron Williams has been brilliant this year at top three
Speaker 1: running back in the NFL. Stafford has been very inconsistent
Speaker 1: with Pookah Nakua and Cooper Cup Like. There have been
Speaker 1: times where you think they're going to be brilliant and
Speaker 1: they're good for like a series, and so they lose
Speaker 1: to the Dolphins, They they get lucky beating the Niners,
Speaker 1: they struggle against the Jets. Like these things happen over
Speaker 1: the last month of the season. I think that's why
Speaker 1: you might have had them below the Vikings. But now
Speaker 1: the season has ended, the second season has begun, We're
Speaker 1: going to find out do we have the Matthew Stafford
Speaker 1: and Sean McVay and Kyron Williams that we all believe
Speaker 1: they can be. Because that's what betters are doing. Professional
Speaker 1: betters are saying, yes, we think they will have benefited
Speaker 1: from having this past week off and that the Vikings
Speaker 1: are starting on a downward trend, and Sam Donald might
Speaker 1: be a little bit happy feed because his offensive line
Speaker 1: isn't as good as it had been.
Speaker 2: There's always a game. I want you to explain to me.
Speaker 2: It is very easy to talk yourself into Bills at
Speaker 2: home minus eight and a half against a rookie quarterback.
Speaker 2: But Sean Payton has been really good on the road
Speaker 2: in the playoffs in his career. And I've watched Buffalo
Speaker 2: at different times year. I've watched their defense get shreded.
Speaker 2: I mean, you go back to the Rams game, that's
Speaker 2: the best. The Rams offense has been all you're against anybody,
Speaker 2: bad teams, good teams. They did whatever they wanted to
Speaker 2: do against Buffalo. I watched Drake May and New England
Speaker 2: give them trouble a couple of weeks ago. Something is
Speaker 2: telling me eight and a half's too big, But god,
Speaker 2: Buffalo could be such a freight train offensively tell me
Speaker 2: where I should go here.
Speaker 1: So look the wise guys that are completely split on this.
Speaker 1: It is being a stubborn, stubborn number. It was at
Speaker 1: seven and a half on Sunday night when the playoffs
Speaker 1: seedings were, you know, just about set for the AFC,
Speaker 1: and it lasted for a hot minute and then it
Speaker 1: was at eight and a half. And all these lines
Speaker 1: this week they've been bouncing around. You know, the Chargers
Speaker 1: in the Texans was three two and a half, three
Speaker 1: two and a half, and the Rams has gone from
Speaker 1: two and a half to one and a half, and
Speaker 1: even the Steelers and the Ravens has gone from seven
Speaker 1: and a half to eight and a half, nine, nine
Speaker 1: and a half, ten back down in nine and a half.
Speaker 1: This one was so stubborn it sat on eight and
Speaker 1: a half literally until late Thursday morning. It finally finally
Speaker 1: ticked up to nine. Because what's happening is there's money
Speaker 1: coming in from professional betters on both sides for everything
Speaker 1: you just said. They're afraid of this Bills defense. Don't
Speaker 1: forget the Bills used to do things like blow out
Speaker 1: the Dolphins, right they let the Dolphins stay in it.
Speaker 1: This year, their defense has just not been very good.
Speaker 1: The things that wise guys who want to bet the
Speaker 1: Bills like is that Bonnicks has just been much worse
Speaker 1: against zone than against man. The Bills play a lot
Speaker 1: of zone. A rookie quarterback in the first playoff game
Speaker 1: historically does not cover the spread. They feel like this
Speaker 1: is a game where Josh Allen can get everything right,
Speaker 1: and some times the Bills do blow out inferior opponents.
Speaker 1: The Broncos have been terrible against teams with a winning
Speaker 1: record one and seven this year minus thirty seven point differential.
Speaker 1: Sean Payton scares a lot of people. He is. He's
Speaker 1: one of those coaches, right Mike Vrabel, Mike Tomlin, Matt
Speaker 1: lafor Bill Belichick over the past generation, who guys do
Speaker 1: not like to bet against. In a big number, I think,
Speaker 1: what did it for me? I bet the Bills eight
Speaker 1: and a half. I could be wrong, it's a fifty
Speaker 1: to fifty split. What did it for me is I
Speaker 1: think the Bills are going to be winning, and I
Speaker 1: think Sean Payton's going to have to put Bonnigs in
Speaker 1: a position where he's got to make uncomfortable throws. And
Speaker 1: we've seen it often enough this year. Go back to
Speaker 1: that Bengals game. He threw the interception right to a
Speaker 1: guy right and they had the game locked up. So
Speaker 1: I think that could happen at the end of the game.
Speaker 1: And that's a next factor for me to bet on
Speaker 1: the Bills.
Speaker 2: Finally, it's stay away game. For me, Chargers minus three
Speaker 2: at the Texans, the Chargers win. Where do you land
Speaker 2: on it?
Speaker 1: I bet the Chargers. I bet the Chargers at two
Speaker 1: and a half. We talked a lot about this on
Speaker 1: the show today, and the wise guys are lining up
Speaker 1: behind Houston. I don't get it. It feels a little
Speaker 1: bit trappy to me. The team that the Texans have
Speaker 1: been all season. They're not going to be a different
Speaker 1: team all of.
Speaker 2: A sudden, inconsistent week to week, half to half.
Speaker 1: All year they've been inconsistent. CJ. Stroud has been terrible
Speaker 1: against two high safeties. That's what the Chargers like to play.
Speaker 1: The strength of the Texans defense is the pressure they
Speaker 1: can get from their defensive ends. The strength of the
Speaker 1: Chargers offensive line are their two Pro Bowl offensive tackles.
Speaker 1: Justin Herbert does not turn the ball over. To me,
Speaker 1: the key to the season and winning and I have
Speaker 1: been betting the Chargers consistently at the end of the season,
Speaker 1: and we've seen this over and over again. It's why
Speaker 1: I think favorites have been winning. Good quarterbacks You've talked
Speaker 1: about that whole year, impeccable, unimpeachable decision making. More and
Speaker 1: more it used to be. You know this, It used
Speaker 1: to be if you're a head coach, your only job
Speaker 1: on Sunday, manage the timeouts, be there to tell someone
Speaker 1: if they're going to go four and fourth down. Those
Speaker 1: decisions are becoming more important throughout the game. How you're
Speaker 1: managing the last two minutes of a half, going for
Speaker 1: it more often on fourth down. That used to be
Speaker 1: a variance of two to three times a game. Now
Speaker 1: it could be four or five times a game. Jim
Speaker 1: Harbaugh just beat the Broncos by managing the end of
Speaker 1: the first half in that game so well. That changed
Speaker 1: the game for the Chargers and change the game for
Speaker 1: the Broncos. So I don't want to bet against Jim
Speaker 1: Harbough is a short favorite, even though it's on the
Speaker 1: road and the wise guys are saying otherwise.
Speaker 2: Sharper Square Chad Millman, co host of the Favorites. As always, Buddy,
Speaker 2: I can't wait start starting tonight. We're doing this Thursday afternoon,
Speaker 2: Starting tonight, I'll take Notre Dame close over Penn State,
Speaker 2: low scoring game, probably like the under good talking to.
Speaker 1: You, good, talking to you, Glad you saved Buddy.
Speaker 3: The volume