1 00:00:04,200 --> 00:00:09,560 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day one, twenty 2 00:00:09,640 --> 00:00:15,360 Speaker 1: six since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's main story, 3 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:21,160 Speaker 1: standing six ft apart in public has become COVID gospel. 4 00:00:22,280 --> 00:00:25,960 Speaker 1: But where did that number come from? And how far 5 00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:31,639 Speaker 1: is really far enough? But first, here's what happened in 6 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:46,479 Speaker 1: virus news today. US hospitals have been ordered to stop 7 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:50,360 Speaker 1: sending COVID nineteen related data to the Centers for Disease 8 00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 1: Control and Prevention. Instead, they will now send numbers they 9 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:58,240 Speaker 1: tally of y U beds, ventilators, and more to a 10 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:03,200 Speaker 1: centralized health and Human services database that will not be 11 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:07,920 Speaker 1: available to the public. The government says the change will 12 00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:12,800 Speaker 1: improve tracking, but experts fear this will politicize the data 13 00:01:13,160 --> 00:01:19,280 Speaker 1: and obscure what's really happening with the disease. Walmart is 14 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 1: going to require customers to wear masks in all of 15 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:26,360 Speaker 1: its US stores to protect against the coronavirus starting July. 16 00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:34,120 Speaker 1: Walmart's decision follows similar moves by Costco, Starbucks, and Best Buy. 17 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:39,160 Speaker 1: Also today, the National Retail Federation, the country's main industry 18 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 1: trade group, called on retailers to set nationwide mask policies. 19 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:48,280 Speaker 1: The n r F said in a statement that shopping 20 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:55,080 Speaker 1: in stores is a privilege, not a right. Finally, Tokyo 21 00:01:55,400 --> 00:01:58,760 Speaker 1: raised its alert level for coronavirus to the highest on 22 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:03,080 Speaker 1: a four point scale. The city reported one and sixty 23 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:07,600 Speaker 1: five coronavirus cases on Wednesday. It has struggled to get 24 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:11,560 Speaker 1: a handle on growing infections as it reopens its economy. 25 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:17,560 Speaker 1: Tokyo Governor Euriko Koike urged residents to avoid stores that 26 00:02:17,639 --> 00:02:21,520 Speaker 1: don't need safety guidelines, but has not called on businesses 27 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:33,560 Speaker 1: to close their doors. And now for today's main story, 28 00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:38,080 Speaker 1: While wearing a mask or refusing to wear one has 29 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:42,040 Speaker 1: become politicized, there's one COVID safety measure we seem to 30 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:46,880 Speaker 1: be comparatively united about. Everyone knows they should stand six 31 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:51,120 Speaker 1: feet away from other people in public, mask or no mask. 32 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:55,520 Speaker 1: But where did this guidance come from? As Kristin V. 33 00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:59,800 Speaker 1: Brown reports, that one simple number is already changing our 34 00:02:59,840 --> 00:03:03,800 Speaker 1: b behavior and will soon change the places where we live, 35 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:11,160 Speaker 1: work and play. When I go to the grocery store, 36 00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:14,560 Speaker 1: there are these little vinyl stickers on the floor six 37 00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 1: ft apart tell me where to wait in line. When 38 00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 1: I run in the park by my house. There are 39 00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:24,959 Speaker 1: signs there too, demonstrating the distance that fellow exercisers should 40 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 1: keep from one another. In the last few months, like 41 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:33,040 Speaker 1: many people, I have gotten really good eyeballing a distance 42 00:03:33,040 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 1: of six ft in the midst of a surging pandemic. 43 00:03:38,200 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 1: Six ft has become a number that we all live by. 44 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:47,440 Speaker 1: But where does that number come from exactly? It turns 45 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:52,120 Speaker 1: out the actual distance for safe social distancing is kind 46 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:55,440 Speaker 1: of hard to pin down. I talked with Gabriel isaacman 47 00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 1: ven Worts, a scientist at Veraging Attack who studies the 48 00:03:58,520 --> 00:04:05,400 Speaker 1: way that particles change in atmosphere. But there isn't some 49 00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:08,760 Speaker 1: number that says, well, beyond this, there's no risk, and 50 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:10,880 Speaker 1: in front of that, you know, closer than this there 51 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:13,160 Speaker 1: is a risk, or beyond this all of the things 52 00:04:13,200 --> 00:04:15,320 Speaker 1: that are infectious have been gone, are gone, they fall 53 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:18,320 Speaker 1: into the ground, and closer than that than there is 54 00:04:18,320 --> 00:04:20,960 Speaker 1: still infectious risk. Right, So that number is going to 55 00:04:21,040 --> 00:04:24,159 Speaker 1: depend on sort of what is the activity, and what 56 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:27,360 Speaker 1: is the environment and what is the airflow? Right? Are 57 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:29,760 Speaker 1: you upwind of someone or downwind of someone? Are you 58 00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:32,760 Speaker 1: inside the room? Are you outside? Is the air still? 59 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:34,640 Speaker 1: You know? What's the air ventilation? Rate in the room. 60 00:04:34,640 --> 00:04:36,239 Speaker 1: And so I think a lot of the issue around 61 00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:39,039 Speaker 1: around that uncertainty kind of stems from this issue that 62 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:44,320 Speaker 1: it is fundamentally a question of circumstances. There is little 63 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:48,000 Speaker 1: doubt that strategies like wearing a mask and social distancing 64 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 1: play a major role in stopping the spread of COVID nineteen. 65 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:55,560 Speaker 1: The question is how far apart you have to be 66 00:04:55,720 --> 00:05:00,080 Speaker 1: in order to adequately avoid risk. The CDC recommends at 67 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:02,960 Speaker 1: least six ft from other people as a way to 68 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:06,919 Speaker 1: avoid the potentially infectious droplets a person launches into the 69 00:05:06,960 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 1: air when they cough, sneeze, or talk. The World Health Organization, 70 00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:16,520 Speaker 1: on the other hand, recommends just three ft. But Gabriel says, 71 00:05:16,600 --> 00:05:20,040 Speaker 1: the issue is that there isn't just one magic number. 72 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:24,640 Speaker 1: When we talk or sneeze or do anything, we're not 73 00:05:24,720 --> 00:05:27,680 Speaker 1: releasing like some big particles and some small particles, and 74 00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 1: then that's it that we can talk about them separately. Right. 75 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:33,320 Speaker 1: We tend to release kind of these mixtures of particle 76 00:05:33,360 --> 00:05:35,720 Speaker 1: sizes um and once they're in the air they can 77 00:05:35,800 --> 00:05:38,440 Speaker 1: change more, so they can you know, our breath is 78 00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:40,160 Speaker 1: very humid, so you can get out into the air. 79 00:05:40,279 --> 00:05:41,720 Speaker 1: That's what the fog is that we're seeing when we 80 00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:43,680 Speaker 1: breathe out in the winter, and so I think the 81 00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:47,600 Speaker 1: difficulty is that it's all sort of this continuum, and 82 00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:51,040 Speaker 1: so you know, the question is how much do we 83 00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:53,520 Speaker 1: need to breathe in and how infectious is it? Really? 84 00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:57,119 Speaker 1: The three foot rule actually dates back to the turn 85 00:05:57,279 --> 00:06:00,640 Speaker 1: of the last century. It talked with Kavin Handle, a 86 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:04,279 Speaker 1: medical historian at Virginia Tech, who was working to figure 87 00:06:04,279 --> 00:06:09,200 Speaker 1: out the origins of these numbers. Interestingly, she says, we 88 00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:13,080 Speaker 1: don't really know where the rule comes from. At one point, 89 00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:17,400 Speaker 1: diseases were regarded primarily as airborne, and at the beginning 90 00:06:17,400 --> 00:06:20,600 Speaker 1: of the twentieth century, scientists moved towards the idea that 91 00:06:20,640 --> 00:06:24,840 Speaker 1: when a person's sneezes or coughs, they produced infectious droplets 92 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 1: that quickly fall to the ground. In the thirties, Harvard 93 00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 1: scientists suggested those droplets could travel three ft. Fast forward 94 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:36,080 Speaker 1: to the early ops, a study of stars transmission on 95 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:39,320 Speaker 1: a plane suggested droplets could travel more like six ft. 96 00:06:39,600 --> 00:06:43,520 Speaker 1: Another recent study found that coughs and sneezes create turbulent 97 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:48,520 Speaker 1: gas clouds that can carry pathogens a whopping twenty seven feet. 98 00:06:50,080 --> 00:06:54,560 Speaker 1: More recently, the World Health Organization recognized that COVID nineteen 99 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:59,040 Speaker 1: can be airborne in indoor spaces with poor ventilation after 100 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:03,400 Speaker 1: pressure from hundreds of scientists. The issue, though, as Gabriel 101 00:07:03,440 --> 00:07:07,600 Speaker 1: points out, is that there isn't a dichotomy here. It's 102 00:07:07,640 --> 00:07:10,600 Speaker 1: not that a virus is either airborne or spreads through 103 00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:14,800 Speaker 1: droplets when we cough and sneeze. It's a spectrum. The 104 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:18,880 Speaker 1: bigger question instead is whether the virus is actually infectious 105 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:25,480 Speaker 1: in all of these different ways that we encounter it. Obviously, 106 00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 1: we know that sneezing and coughing produce a lot of 107 00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:30,440 Speaker 1: different sized particles. We know they can travel fairly far. 108 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:33,760 Speaker 1: We have a pretty good body of literature now that 109 00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:37,400 Speaker 1: says that even things like talking and singing produce some 110 00:07:37,480 --> 00:07:41,040 Speaker 1: of the smaller particles. We have some literature that says 111 00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:45,360 Speaker 1: that in certain cases we can find we can basically 112 00:07:45,400 --> 00:07:47,480 Speaker 1: find RNA, we can find viruns, We can find some 113 00:07:47,520 --> 00:07:50,520 Speaker 1: information that says that coronavirus is in these smaller particles. 114 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:54,560 Speaker 1: But we don't have great information on is how infectious 115 00:07:54,560 --> 00:07:56,600 Speaker 1: are those smaller particles. How much do we have to 116 00:07:56,640 --> 00:07:58,640 Speaker 1: breathe in to get infected In that kind of thing, 117 00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:04,600 Speaker 1: The thing is the world we live in isn't rearranging 118 00:08:04,600 --> 00:08:09,320 Speaker 1: itself to accommodate a spectrum of conditions. Our built world 119 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 1: is starting to revolve around maintaining a distance of six feet. Parks, 120 00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 1: including San Francisco's famous Dolores Park, are painting white circles 121 00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:21,600 Speaker 1: on the ground to designate where to sit as school's reopen. 122 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 1: Guidelines from places like the American Pediatric Society have suggested 123 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:29,239 Speaker 1: that desks should be placed between three and six feet apart. 124 00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:33,120 Speaker 1: I also spoke with Eron Betsky, the director of Virginia 125 00:08:33,200 --> 00:08:36,480 Speaker 1: Tech School of Architecture and Design, about what kinds of 126 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 1: more permanent changes we might expect to our built world 127 00:08:40,520 --> 00:08:44,040 Speaker 1: after the pandemic. Aaron says we can expect things like 128 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:49,120 Speaker 1: better ventilation in indoor spaces and more easily cleaned surfaces. 129 00:08:49,520 --> 00:08:52,720 Speaker 1: He also said design will become more private and isolating. 130 00:08:56,240 --> 00:08:59,720 Speaker 1: This is going to be just one more layer of 131 00:08:59,760 --> 00:09:03,920 Speaker 1: trying to isolate and insulate ourselves from other human beings 132 00:09:03,920 --> 00:09:06,280 Speaker 1: in the real world, and in the end it will 133 00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:09,080 Speaker 1: be used. Should we do it. Of course, we should 134 00:09:09,120 --> 00:09:12,360 Speaker 1: do it. We need to protect people, We need to 135 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:15,880 Speaker 1: protect ourselves because we have made ourselves vulnerable. All that 136 00:09:15,960 --> 00:09:20,680 Speaker 1: you will see is the erection of shields and separating devices. 137 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:25,240 Speaker 1: So I think it's unfortunate that what had become a 138 00:09:25,320 --> 00:09:29,440 Speaker 1: more collective and open environment workplace in many areas of 139 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:32,520 Speaker 1: people complain that they can't concentrate, is going to turn 140 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:36,320 Speaker 1: back into Dilbert Land. So we'll see a revenge at 141 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 1: the office qube. Aaron says that design will also try 142 00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:44,120 Speaker 1: to look safe, like the hospital rooms with rounded corners 143 00:09:44,200 --> 00:09:47,920 Speaker 1: designed to prevent dirt from accumulating in them that cropped 144 00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:52,200 Speaker 1: up in the twenties and thirties. You're also going to 145 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:57,000 Speaker 1: see a style where things should need to look safe 146 00:09:57,160 --> 00:10:00,839 Speaker 1: to reassure people. So I'm not saying that necessarily we're 147 00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:05,439 Speaker 1: going to make things that are safer by having rounded corners, 148 00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:08,959 Speaker 1: but we're going to make things that reassure people that 149 00:10:09,000 --> 00:10:13,079 Speaker 1: there's not something hiding somewhere that's going to come out 150 00:10:13,120 --> 00:10:16,880 Speaker 1: and bite them or make them sick. This won't be 151 00:10:17,040 --> 00:10:20,520 Speaker 1: the first time our physical realm has been altered due 152 00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:25,080 Speaker 1: to disease. In the eighteen hundreds, for example, after cholera 153 00:10:25,240 --> 00:10:29,559 Speaker 1: killed tens of thousands of Parisians, the city condemned crowded 154 00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:34,720 Speaker 1: medieval neighborhoods and instead built wide avenues and parks. But 155 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:38,119 Speaker 1: the sign suggests we should be considering things like airflow 156 00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:42,120 Speaker 1: and the size of a room when making decisions about 157 00:10:42,160 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 1: what distance is a safe distance. You know, probably any 158 00:10:46,760 --> 00:10:49,680 Speaker 1: researcher in any of the related fields would agree is 159 00:10:49,679 --> 00:10:52,000 Speaker 1: that the farther way you can be the better. Right, 160 00:10:52,160 --> 00:10:55,240 Speaker 1: And and so you have to make some messaging decision. 161 00:10:55,240 --> 00:10:58,240 Speaker 1: And I suppose about what is far and what is close. 162 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:04,240 Speaker 1: Six ft doesn't feel that far to me um, But 163 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:07,440 Speaker 1: also there I understand that there are other sort of 164 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:10,200 Speaker 1: things that go into making that decision. Right, can you 165 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:12,320 Speaker 1: open up? Would you be able to reopen any of 166 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:16,079 Speaker 1: our day to day life if we insisted on right? 167 00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:26,520 Speaker 1: That becomes a lot harder at the end of the day. 168 00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:32,120 Speaker 1: It's not exactly six ft that's a rule to live by. Instead, 169 00:11:32,559 --> 00:11:36,000 Speaker 1: it's more important to remember to keep your distance no 170 00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 1: matter where you are, and of course to wear a mask. 171 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:54,920 Speaker 1: That was Kristin v. Brown and that's it for our 172 00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:58,920 Speaker 1: show today. For coverage of the outbreak from one around 173 00:11:58,920 --> 00:12:04,160 Speaker 1: the world, visit Bloomberg dot com slash coronavirus and if 174 00:12:04,160 --> 00:12:06,719 Speaker 1: you like the show, please leave us a review. And 175 00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:10,560 Speaker 1: a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best 176 00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:15,440 Speaker 1: way to help more listeners find our global reporting. The 177 00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:19,800 Speaker 1: Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Topher foreheads Jordan Gospore, 178 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 1: Magnus Hendrickson, and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was 179 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:29,760 Speaker 1: reported by Kristin V. Brown. Original music by Leo Citrin. 180 00:12:30,360 --> 00:12:34,760 Speaker 1: Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levi 181 00:12:35,120 --> 00:12:38,319 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.