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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: day Break You Up podcast, available every morning on Apple,

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Speaker 1: Spotify or whatever you listen. It's Monday, the thirtieth of

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Speaker 1: September here in London. I'm Caroline Hepki.

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Speaker 2: And I'm Stephen Carroll coming up today with his Bill

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Speaker 2: as leader now dead. US concerns grow over the impact

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Speaker 2: of a possible ground invasion of Lebanon.

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Speaker 1: Chinese stocks continue to soar as the country rolls out

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Speaker 1: more stimulus measures.

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Speaker 2: Plus, we have a special report on the metals renegades

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Speaker 2: rocking a fifteen trillion dollar market.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with a round up of our top stories.

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Speaker 2: Israel has carried out its first airstrike on Central Bay

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Speaker 2: Route and the nearly year long conflict. According to an

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Speaker 2: Associated Press reporter at the scene, It comes after Israel's

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Speaker 2: military killed Hesbela's longtime leader Hassanazraala and an airstrike in

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Speaker 2: the city Israel's attack. Israel's attacks are now fueling US

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Speaker 2: concern about a possible ground invasion of Leon and the

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Speaker 2: risk of Iran being drawn into a wider regional conflict.

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Speaker 2: Here's what White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby

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Speaker 2: tells CNN on Sunday, they.

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Speaker 3: Want to get those families back to those homes and

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Speaker 3: Kubitzers in the north. We want to see that too.

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Speaker 4: We believe and continue to believe that an all out

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Speaker 4: war with Hesbla, certainly with Ran, is not the way

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Speaker 4: to do that.

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Speaker 2: John Kirby there referring to the thousands of Israelis who've

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Speaker 2: had to abandon their homes due to Hesbellah shelling. The

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Speaker 2: situation on the ground in Lebanon, meanwhile, has been described

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Speaker 2: as a disaster by one local aid agency. The country's

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Speaker 2: Prime Minister is one of the number of displaced people

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Speaker 2: could reach one million within days.

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Speaker 1: Chinese shares look poised to enter a bull market after

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Speaker 1: authorities will doubt fresh property easing steps as part of

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Speaker 1: a stimulus package unveiled last week. The cs I three

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Speaker 1: hundred index has jumped by as much as six and

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Speaker 1: a half percent today, has traders rushed to buy shares.

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Speaker 1: In the last session before a week long holiday, the

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Speaker 1: index had lost more than forty five percent of its

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Speaker 1: value from the peak in twenty twenty one to the

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Speaker 1: middle of last month. Since then, it has soled by

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Speaker 1: more than twenty percent goldn Sachs's China portfolio Strategists Seafu

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Speaker 1: says the jury is still out on how sustainable the

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Speaker 1: gains are, so.

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Speaker 4: A key question is whether the relic could be sustainable.

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Speaker 4: Our answer is we still need to watch for policy

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Speaker 4: delivery and whether it will bring fundamental improvements from earnings

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Speaker 4: from macro data. So far, what we see is from

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Speaker 4: the policy perspective. People are waiting to see mandatory and

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Speaker 4: the physical policy.

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Speaker 1: Seafou's note of caution comes as China's factory activity contracted

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Speaker 1: for a fifth month in a row in September. The

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Speaker 1: data offers another reminder of the continued economic weakness in

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Speaker 1: the country before Beijing's stimulus measures last week.

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Speaker 2: The focus on the world's second largest economy comes as

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Speaker 2: data had a big drop and electric cars being sold

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Speaker 2: by Chinese manufacturers in Europe, registrations fell by forty eight

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Speaker 2: percent in August from a year earlier, according to Research

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Speaker 2: her Data Force, with a broader slide in ev demand

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Speaker 2: across the region, adding to uncertainty for car makers. Automakers

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Speaker 2: are continuing to weigh the potential impact of EU tariffs

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Speaker 2: on all electric vehicles imported from China, including those from

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Speaker 2: non Chinese companies such as BMW, Stilantis and Tesla.

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Speaker 1: UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is aiming to attend a meeting

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Speaker 1: of EU finance ministers before the end of the year.

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Speaker 1: According to a Financial Times report, arrangements are still under discussion,

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Speaker 1: but officials see her anticipated attendance as a sign of

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Speaker 1: improving UK EU relations. A gathering of the BLOCKS Finance

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Speaker 1: ministers is planned for the ninth of December in Brussels,

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Speaker 1: providing a potential date for Reeves.

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Speaker 2: To Birmingham, now where the Conservative Party conferences underway and

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Speaker 2: focused on choosing a new part leader to replace former

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Speaker 2: Prime Minister Rishie Sunak. Front owners Robert Jenrick and Kemmy

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Speaker 2: Badenock have clashed over Badenock's remarks on statutory maternity pay,

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Speaker 2: which she labeled excessive. She later wrote back in her comments.

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Speaker 5: Damage control note for what I think maternity pay is

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Speaker 5: a good thing. I don't think it's successive.

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Speaker 2: I see that there is some mischief being made on

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Speaker 2: social media trying to misrepresent me. Kenny Badenock, the former

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Speaker 2: Business Secretary, speaking there. Her opponent Robert Jenrick, publicly disagreed

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Speaker 2: on the matter as their team's traded hostile briefings. The

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Speaker 2: two other candidates, former Home Secretary James Cleverly and former

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Speaker 2: Security Minister Tom Toucan, had made clear they disagreed with her.

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Speaker 2: After the conference, Tory MPs will narrow the leadership field

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Speaker 2: to a final pair, with grassroots members picking a winner

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Speaker 2: to be announced in November.

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Speaker 1: A capsule that's been sent to rescue two stranded astronauts

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Speaker 1: has docked at the International Space Station. The two NASA

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Speaker 1: astronauts have been unable to return to Earth as planned

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Speaker 1: because of safety concerns. SpaceX launched a rescue mission on Saturday,

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Speaker 1: with two astronauts on board and two spare seats reserved

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Speaker 1: for the pair. They won't be back until February, though,

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Speaker 1: but Sonny Williams has told NASA that she is feeling positive.

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Speaker 6: I miss my two dogs, I miss my friends. But

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Speaker 6: you know what, there are so many people honor that

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Speaker 6: are sending us messages, and it makes you feel just

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Speaker 6: right at home with everybody when we're able to have

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Speaker 6: those conversations with our friends and family.

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Speaker 1: So astronauts Sonny Williams speaking. They're traveling in the vessel

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Speaker 1: known as the Dragon capsule. The rescue mission has brought

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Speaker 1: fresh supplies for the two who have been stuck since June. Now,

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Speaker 1: in a moment, we're going to talk about the metals

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Speaker 1: industry here in London. It is LME Week underway, so

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Speaker 1: that's going to be interesting thinking about the commodities story

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Speaker 1: after we've seen a commodities surging last week. Also, we'll

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Speaker 1: be talking a bit more about the Middle East. But

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Speaker 1: I just wanted to say, well, come back firstly see

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Speaker 1: it because you were away. I did miss you. It

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Speaker 1: looks like you had an abstutely amazing time in Manhattan.

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Speaker 1: Of course, lots of phodge gooss on social media, all

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Speaker 1: the people you interviewed.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, look, it was a very interesting time to be there,

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Speaker 2: at being Climate Week and n General Assembly week as well.

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Speaker 2: Tom Keen on Bloomberg Surveilans asked me on Friday morning

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Speaker 2: what he thought would happen, What I thought would happen

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Speaker 2: next after Benjaminettannie who spoke at the UN General Assembly,

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Speaker 2: And I mean I told him I didn't know. And

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Speaker 2: I think the weekends events have proven that things are

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Speaker 2: moving very quickly there. So let's bring you up to

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Speaker 2: date in the developments that we've heard in the Middle

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Speaker 2: East in the early hours of this morning in Israeli

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Speaker 2: aer strike at Central Bay Route. That's the first time

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Speaker 2: that's happened in the nearly year long conflict. Our head

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Speaker 2: of Middle Eastern North Africa coverage, Stuart Livingston Wallace, joins

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Speaker 2: us now for more. Stuart, good morning. What are people

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Speaker 2: in Lebanon waking up to this morning? It seems that

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Speaker 2: Israel strikes are continuing even after the death of the

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Speaker 2: Hibela leader.

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Speaker 5: You're absolutely right, and then I don't think there's any

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Speaker 5: sense that they're going to end anytime soon. So really

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Speaker 5: what we've seen over the last couple of weeks is

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Speaker 5: this very large escalation in terms of the air strikes

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Speaker 5: that you've seen in across level and now primarily that's

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Speaker 5: been focused on the south to the south of Bay

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Speaker 5: and in the Bechar Valley. Now these are two strongholds

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Speaker 5: of Hezbolla. So what Israel's trying to do here is

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Speaker 5: two things. Number one is eliminate the leadership and number

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Speaker 5: two is to start degrading the weapon sites so that

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Speaker 5: could be stockpars, that could be launch sites.

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Speaker 1: Yes, absolutely, in terms of the response potentially from Hasbola,

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Speaker 1: if not Hezboller Iran. Is there an expectation around that?

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Speaker 1: Obviously that was also the speculation over the weekend, the concern.

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Speaker 5: It was, and I think that that, at least for

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Speaker 5: now is fading. And I'm hesitant because it's very hard

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Speaker 5: to predict what may happen in the days ahead. But

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Speaker 5: particularly in terms of Hesbola, we did see very limited

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Speaker 5: response in the sense of a few rockets coming over

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Speaker 5: the border into as well, but again on a very

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Speaker 5: very low level, and no one can quite tell. Is

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Speaker 5: is that because the Israeli air strikes have been effective

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Speaker 5: and eliminating the leadership and the weapon stock past and

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Speaker 5: therefore it makes it much more difficult for them to

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Speaker 5: actually coordinate these attacks, or is it that they're sort

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Speaker 5: of basically having a discussion internally with them has blurer

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Speaker 5: about what will the response be. But the reality is

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Speaker 5: that Israel's air defenses are so good and so advanced

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Speaker 5: that it's going to be very, very difficult for them

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Speaker 5: to have any impact whatsoever. I mean they I'm not

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Speaker 5: quite sure what the number is, but it's sort of

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Speaker 5: in the order of nineteen ninety five percent plus of

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Speaker 5: the rockets and missiles coming over get intercepted one way

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Speaker 5: or another, or an ad full on to empty grounds.

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Speaker 5: So it's very difficult for has Bler I think, to

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Speaker 5: be particularly effective in terms of response with regards to Iran.

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Speaker 5: Again you know, lots of noise but not much action.

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Speaker 5: And again the reality there is that Iran's options, at

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Speaker 5: least in terms of an overt confrontation with israela very limited.

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Speaker 5: We saw it in April. They sent over close to

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Speaker 5: three hundred missiles and drones, almost every single one of

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Speaker 5: which was intercepted. Now it was well telegraphed and it

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Speaker 5: was clear that Iran didn't want to escalate things to

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Speaker 5: full on confrontation. But again, what exactly are the Uranian

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Speaker 5: options right now really hard to see.

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Speaker 2: At the same time, series away from Lebanon, we saw

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Speaker 2: Israeli strikes in Yemen two over the weekend. What does

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Speaker 2: that tell us about Israel's broader strategy at this moment.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, as preemptive is the word here, So what there

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Speaker 5: are effectively doing is trying to decapitate all these Uranian

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Speaker 5: proxies that surround it. So we've seen that in Yemen

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Speaker 5: over the weekend again because the Hooties have been firing

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Speaker 5: missiles and drones up into to Israel, and particularly now

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Speaker 5: that it wants to focus on the northern front, that

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Speaker 5: is the front with Lebanon, the last thing it needs

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Speaker 5: is some massive escalation from the hooties. So I think

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Speaker 5: that's a preemptive strike. We've seen attacks on sites obviously

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Speaker 5: in Lebanon and Gaza continues, but also in Syria because

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Speaker 5: remember you've got these Iranian backed militias in Syria and

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Speaker 5: in Iraq that have also been attacking Israel. So it's

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Speaker 5: trying to basically do it all in one go so

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Speaker 5: that it can focus on the north.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Meanwhile, Hamas says that the head of its Lebanon

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Speaker 1: branch has also been killed in a strike in southern Lebanon.

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Speaker 1: How does this affect the war in Gaza? I mean,

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Speaker 1: one has stakes to use the word cease Far admits

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Speaker 1: this deepening conflict.

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Speaker 5: I mean, I think for now there is no sign

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Speaker 5: that we would get anything resembling a ceaspar and as

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Speaker 5: you know, we've had lots of very powerful nations, notably

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Speaker 5: the US, pushing for one for some time now, and

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Speaker 5: it's not really got anywhere. I think in terms of

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Speaker 5: Israel's attitude towards this, it feels that it is largely

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Speaker 5: eliminated most of the threat from Hermus, at least on

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Speaker 5: a large scale. But you know, pockets continue to pop

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Speaker 5: up here and there, and you know, even in areas

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Speaker 5: that have been cleared multiple times, you know, suddenly you'll

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Speaker 5: get fighting erupting again because it is very difficult to

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Speaker 5: sort of damp it down, try and keep control over it.

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Speaker 5: But I think as far as Israel's concerned, you know,

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Speaker 5: it's most of the way they're in goals and we

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Speaker 5: know that it's pulled out quite a lot of troops,

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Speaker 5: not least I assume to rest them in preparation for

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Speaker 5: something that may or may not happen in the North.

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Speaker 4: Stuart.

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Speaker 2: For now, thank you our ahead of Middle Eastern North

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Speaker 2: Africa coverage. Stuart Livingston Wallace.

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Speaker 1: Now let's turn our attention to market news party time

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Speaker 1: for global metals industry here in London, because it's LME Week,

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Speaker 1: the big annual gathering of everyone from traders to commodity

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Speaker 1: journalists who have anything to do with the London Metal Exchange.

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Speaker 1: It's about networking, it's about gauging the state of the market,

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Speaker 1: negotiating multi million ton contracts. This amidst an spike in

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Speaker 1: iron or gold prices edging up our commodities reporter Martin

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Speaker 1: Ritchie joins us now for more. Martin, tell us what's

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Speaker 1: going on then for London Metals Week? Right now? What

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Speaker 1: are well are going to be talking about this week

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Speaker 1: in London.

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Speaker 3: It's a big week in the calendar for the metals

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Speaker 3: business globally. You've really got literally thousands of people descending

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Speaker 3: on London. This is a kind of big event where

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Speaker 3: everyone gets together to talk about supply and demand across metals,

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Speaker 3: what's happening in China, what's going to be happening next year,

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Speaker 3: and it can have quite a kind of decisive influence

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Speaker 3: and sentiment in the metals market for the sort of

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Speaker 3: final end of the year. And as it happens, the

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Speaker 3: timing it seems to be very good because you've had

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Speaker 3: this in China, this massive rollout of or the Chinese

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Speaker 3: government says is massive rollout of stimulus with the People's

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Speaker 3: Bank and financial regulations unleashing, you know, a battery of

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Speaker 3: measures to support the economy, and that's really going to

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Speaker 3: be a major talking point, certainly from a market point

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Speaker 3: of view in London this week. Are those measures enough

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Speaker 3: to get metal prices moving again.

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Speaker 4: Certainly is so far.

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Speaker 3: Copper's back above ten thousand a ton, iron or spiked

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Speaker 3: by more than ten percent this morning, quite dramatic. We've

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Speaker 3: also got the annual negotiations in London for supplies of

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Speaker 3: aluminum and copper ore start to get underway, and there's

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Speaker 3: a lot of sort of minushai of the metals market

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Speaker 3: as well that gets discussed. And one of the stories

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Speaker 3: we've put out already this week is about what's become

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Speaker 3: known as warehouse games. It's about metals that sit in

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Speaker 3: sheds around the world and people can make a lot

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Speaker 3: of money off the back of it. That the stories

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Speaker 3: was headline, mavericks of metals are back rocking a fifteen

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Speaker 3: trillion dollar market.

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Speaker 2: Talk to us a bit more about this controversy. Why

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Speaker 2: are these fees so controversial?

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Speaker 3: Yes, so, one of the important aspects of the London

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Speaker 3: Metal Exchange is that it depends on this massive network

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Speaker 3: of warehouses. LEM doesn't operate them, operated by third parties,

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Speaker 3: but they are regulated by the LME. And this is

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Speaker 3: where metal in guts of aluminium, copper, cathode I think

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Speaker 3: gets some zinc can be stored by traders, or you

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Speaker 3: can go there and buy metal, and you can sell

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Speaker 3: metal into the warehouse and often you can have millions

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Speaker 3: of tons sitting around about the world. What that means

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Speaker 3: is that warehouse companies, the companies that own these warehouses,

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Speaker 3: kind of a tremendous influence on the operation of the market.

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Speaker 3: They start to change the fees that are charged for

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Speaker 3: metals coming and going to try and make sure they

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Speaker 3: have as much metal as possible sitting in their warehouse.

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