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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure

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Speaker 1: you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or

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Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. Pambondi is out as Attorney

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Speaker 1: General as of today. What the heck is going on

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Speaker 1: at DOJ? Also Trump giving her a high five on

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Speaker 1: the way out about a national violent crime drop that

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Speaker 1: he says she played a role in, and who should

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Speaker 1: be the ag? How's that whole anti crime approach working

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Speaker 1: for this administration? And also we'll talk a little bit

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Speaker 1: about Coami Mamdani in NYC and his crime policies. Raphael

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Speaker 1: Mangual is with us now, senior felt the Manhattan Institute.

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Speaker 1: He's a crime guy, not that he commits them, he

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Speaker 1: knows a lot about them. He is an expert in

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Speaker 1: the crimes. He is not an expert in doing and

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Speaker 1: doing the crimes. So anyway, my friend, great to have

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Speaker 1: you here on the program today. So we got the

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Speaker 1: the Raphael Manguels here, we got the attorney general is out,

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Speaker 1: Pam Bondy, And we're going to get into a replacement

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Speaker 1: talk here in a second. But I wanted to read

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Speaker 1: something to you from Trump's Truth Socially. It says Pam

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Speaker 1: Bondy is a great American patriot and a loyal friend

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Speaker 1: who faithfully served as my Attorney General of the past year.

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Speaker 1: He did a tremendous job overseeing a massive crackdown in

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Speaker 1: crime across our country, with murders plummeting to their lowest

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Speaker 1: level since nineteen hundred. Let's drill down on that for

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Speaker 1: a second, whether you know Pambondy was really the one

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Speaker 1: mainly in charge of that or not. Put that aside

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Speaker 1: for a second. Is that right? Are we really at

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Speaker 1: this massive murder drop nationwide? Talk us through the numbers

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Speaker 1: in the reality.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, So what people are predicting is a one

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Speaker 2: hundred and twenty five year low on homicides in this country.

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Speaker 2: And that look, I mean data you know prior to

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Speaker 2: nineteen fifty is probably significantly more shoddy than you know,

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Speaker 2: post war data, but it is with Liz, there's no

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Speaker 2: question that we've been making progress on that front nationally.

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Speaker 2: I always tell people there are kind of two cautionary

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Speaker 2: notes here whenever you talk about this stuff. One is

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Speaker 2: resist the temptation to nationalize the conversation. Right, Like a

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Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty five year low for the national

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Speaker 2: homicide rate doesn't really mean a whole lot, because the

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Speaker 2: national homicide rate doesn't mean a whole lot, right. It

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Speaker 2: doesn't describe accurately what life is like where any person

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Speaker 2: is at a given time. Right, the national homicide rate

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Speaker 2: doesn't describe almost any locality. Right. So you can be

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Speaker 2: living in West Garfield Park, Chicago, and maybe the homicide

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Speaker 2: rates one hundred per one hundred thousand, if the national

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Speaker 2: homa rates the homicide rate is five per one hundred thousand,

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Speaker 2: that doesn't mean a whole lot to you, because you're

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Speaker 2: just living in a very different reality. So resist the

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Speaker 2: temptation to nationalize, and just resist the desire for a

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Speaker 2: very clean, neat and sort of unifactorial explanation. The reality

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Speaker 2: is is that yes, we are moving in that direction.

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Speaker 2: Yes homicides are at a significant low, but there are

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Speaker 2: probably a dozen, if not more factors that are dry

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Speaker 2: this and I would put them into two buckets. I

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Speaker 2: would put them into policy related buckets and non policy

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Speaker 2: related bucket. And on the non policy related front, I mean,

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Speaker 2: there's been a lot of real changes in America over

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Speaker 2: the last few years that I think have helped drive this.

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Speaker 2: Since the pandemic more and more people are working from home,

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Speaker 2: which means a lot of them have decided to move

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Speaker 2: out of cities altogether. So the urban population is dropping

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Speaker 2: the suburban populations increasing. That's important because crime tends to

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Speaker 2: be an urban phenomenon, So if urban populations are losing people,

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Speaker 2: then there are fewer opportunities to commit serious violence against

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Speaker 2: those individuals. People are drinking less in America. Alcohol consumptions

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Speaker 2: way down, Attendance at bars and nightclubs is way down.

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Speaker 2: What that means is that alcohols are criminogenetic substance. People

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Speaker 2: tend to get into fights and stuff at bars and

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Speaker 2: nightclubs that spill over into more serious kinds of violence

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Speaker 2: outside those those places. And then we had massive homicide

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Speaker 2: spikes in the lead up to twenty twenty and then

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Speaker 2: certainly in twenty twenty and twenty one. And the reason

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Speaker 2: that that's relevant is because there's a lot of overlap

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Speaker 2: between people who kill and who get killed. We tend

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Speaker 2: to think of homicide victims, you know, when we hear

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Speaker 2: that term, we think of like the cases of innocence

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Speaker 2: who are tragically killed. But the reality is is that

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Speaker 2: if you were to look at the prior arrest history

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Speaker 2: the likelihood of gang membership and the demographics of you know,

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Speaker 2: both homicide victims and suspects which you're going to see

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Speaker 2: or you know, a relatively indistinguishable pair of groups. Right,

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Speaker 2: So homicide victims tend to have similar numbers of prior arrests,

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Speaker 2: similar likelihood of being in a gang. And what that

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Speaker 2: means is when you have a massive spike and homicides

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Speaker 2: over a short period that's multi year, you're taking a

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Speaker 2: lot of chess pieces off the board and that's going

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Speaker 2: to help reduce crime. And then of course you have

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Speaker 2: the policy stuff, which is where BONDI comes in. And look,

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Speaker 2: I think what the federal government has done is helped.

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Speaker 2: There's no question that the task for So can I.

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Speaker 1: Ask you specifically about some of this just because you know,

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Speaker 1: go no place by place like on radio. We have,

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Speaker 1: for example, station in Memphis, and we have a big

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Speaker 1: listenership in Memphis and they are saying that Trump started

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Speaker 1: his and now, to be fair, the mayor of Memphis,

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Speaker 1: we invite him on the show. He hasn't come on yet.

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Speaker 1: We're hoping he will. He's a Democrat, but he was

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Speaker 1: willing to say, you know what, let's work with the

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Speaker 1: federal resources here to bring down crime. People are saying

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Speaker 1: Memphis is in a different place. I mean callers are

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Speaker 1: telling us this, We're getting emails and is that one

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Speaker 1: reflected in the data? And what do you think the

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Speaker 1: changes are that caused it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you're seeing more than a forty percent decline in

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Speaker 2: crime since the launch of the Memphis Safe task for US.

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Speaker 2: I was just in Memphis a couple of weeks ago.

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Speaker 1: Actually, oh you were there, Wow, okay, Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I did some ride alongs with some of the task

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Speaker 2: Force members and it was eye opening. I mean, there

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Speaker 2: were a couple of things that were really surprising about

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Speaker 2: what I saw. One was just how much community support

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Speaker 2: these guys have. And we walked into a restaurant and

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Speaker 2: you know, it was like they were celebrities. I mean,

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Speaker 2: a very different reaction from the people on the ground,

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Speaker 2: from the public than what you were seeing in places

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Speaker 2: like Minneapolis and Chicago, where these guys were getting hounded

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Speaker 2: with cameras and yelled at and docksed. People are very

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Speaker 2: very happy to have these agents on the ground in Memphis,

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Speaker 2: and that's because that city has been living with insane

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Speaker 2: levels of crime. I mean, Memphis has consistently been one

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Speaker 2: of the most dangerous American cities in the top ten,

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Speaker 2: you know, for my entire lifetime. And so, you know,

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Speaker 2: flooding that zone with a massive amount of federal resources

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Speaker 2: that have also partnered with state and local So every

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Speaker 2: single team on this task force has either a local

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Speaker 2: Memphis Police officer or a Tennessee Highway patrolman riding with them.

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Speaker 2: And that's been important because not only does it allow

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Speaker 2: them to take an integrated approach there's intelligence sharing, but

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Speaker 2: also you know, it gets over some of the jurisdictional

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Speaker 2: limits on federal agents, right, Like, for example, if they

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Speaker 2: are looking for guns, and you know, there's a known

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Speaker 2: gang member that they've been tracking and he gets into

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Speaker 2: a car, they would really love to pull him over.

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Speaker 2: But the federal government doesn't have jurisdiction on traffic, right,

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Speaker 2: they can't make car stops for traffic offenses. But they

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Speaker 2: always have a THHP or a Memphis PD guy who

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Speaker 2: can pull them over for the broken tail light and

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Speaker 2: then that can lead to the gun arrest. And so

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Speaker 2: that kind of teamwork and that integration and that cooperation

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Speaker 2: I think has been central to a really super steep

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Speaker 2: crime decline that we've been seeing in that city, and

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Speaker 2: we saw the same thing in Washington, d C. With

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Speaker 2: that task force, you know, And so I think those

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Speaker 2: are two really positive models that tell a compelling story

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Speaker 2: about the federal government's capacity to help drive some of

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Speaker 2: this stuff down. Now, does that explain the national level decline, No,

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Speaker 2: but it has certainly helped, especially when you couple it

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Speaker 2: with the immigration enforcement and the focus on criminal aliens.

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Speaker 2: You know, and then just look at what states like

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Speaker 2: Tennessee and other states like Louisiana and Florida have been

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Speaker 2: doing on the policy front. You know, the last twenty

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Speaker 2: years have kind of been characterized by policies aimed almost

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Speaker 2: exclusively at decarceration in deep policing. But the last handful

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Speaker 2: of years you have seen some parts of the country

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Speaker 2: really turn it around. Tennessee, I think has been a

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Speaker 2: great example of that. You know, cam Sexton, the Speaker

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Speaker 2: of the House there is he's been leading and no.

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Speaker 1: Relation by the way, no relation accounts to ask.

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Speaker 2: But he's done truth and sentencing. There's a three strikes

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Speaker 2: proposal making its way through. They just passed a constitutional

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Speaker 2: amendment that will allow judges to jail people of pre

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Speaker 2: trial if they're dangerous, right, So in Tennessee, you have

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Speaker 2: a constitutional right to have bail set in your case

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Speaker 2: as long as it's not a capital offense. Well, that's

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Speaker 2: going to change the blended juvenile sentencing a repeat offender

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Speaker 2: statute for misdemeans. I mean, Louisiana rolled back a bunch

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Speaker 2: of its twenty seventeen criminal justice reforms. So you're seeing

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Speaker 2: a lot of these trends. Same thing in Texas, Florida,

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Speaker 2: I mean, the country is changing its too, and even California.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you know Prop forty seven got partially reversed

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Speaker 2: by Prop thirty six in November twenty twenty four, which

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Speaker 2: was a year in which you had a lot of

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Speaker 2: progressive prosecutors lose their re election bids, get successfully recalled,

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Speaker 2: or you know, decide not to run for reelection. So,

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Speaker 2: you know, Chicago, Kim Fox is gone. You know, Baltimore,

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Speaker 2: Marilyn Moseby's gone. You got Ivan Bates now taking a

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Speaker 2: much more aggressive approach. George Gascon in La gone. You

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Speaker 2: got Nate Hockman now, Pamela Price in Oakland she's gone.

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Speaker 2: Chason Boudin and San Francisco he's gone. You know, Athens

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Speaker 2: Georgia where Lincoln Riley was killed. That DA is gone.

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Speaker 2: So you know, there's been a lot of change on

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Speaker 2: the policy side. Police departments are re asserting themselves. Arrests

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Speaker 2: are up, and for the last two years that we

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Speaker 2: have data, the prison population nationally is up, which you

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Speaker 2: know is a reversal of a more than decade long trend.

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Speaker 1: Very interesting stuff. We'll come back with Rafael Mangul here

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Speaker 1: from the Manhattan Institute in a second talk about the

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Speaker 1: New York City situation specifically on crime and on policy

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Speaker 1: in general, and Mayor Mundnnie. But our sponsor is pure Talk.

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Speaker 1: All right, Raphael Kamimmdani in New York City, how is

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Speaker 1: it going there? Is there any chance that any of

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Speaker 1: these major cities you think, given what you you laid

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Speaker 1: out about the federal local partnership and how effective it

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Speaker 1: is in reducing serious crime, you know, the bad crime

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Speaker 1: that everyone really wants to, uh to get rid of

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Speaker 1: or lower as much as possible, I should say, is

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Speaker 1: there any chance of a more sane police approach in

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Speaker 1: New York City under the Mumdani administration? That was maybe thought?

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Speaker 1: Where do you stand on that?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? Look, I do think that there's absolutely a chance

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Speaker 2: of it, because we're seeing it happen right now. I

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Speaker 2: mean so far. Looks over on Mam. Donnie is not

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Speaker 2: a mystery, right. We understand what drives him politically. He

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Speaker 2: has a very long and clear record of being a

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Speaker 2: police antagonist. Right. He doesn't like cops, he doesn't like

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Speaker 2: the criminal justice system. He wanted to abolish them until

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Speaker 2: look about five up to about five minutes ago. Right,

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Speaker 2: So his change in tune is really just about political expediency.

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Speaker 2: And I don't really care what it's about as long

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Speaker 2: as he keeps his power to dry on some of

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Speaker 2: these more radical ideas. I'm a happy guy, and I

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Speaker 2: think New York City will be better off for it.

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Speaker 2: And so far, that's what we've seen in the first

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Speaker 2: one hundred days or so of his mayoralty. You know,

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Speaker 2: on the campaign trails over on, Mamdani took some pretty

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Speaker 2: radical positions, but he also backed off of some others. Right.

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Speaker 2: He backed off of defunding the police and dismantling the

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Speaker 2: police department and abolishing jails, but he did also take

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Speaker 2: radical positions like committing to abolishing the New York City

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Speaker 2: Police Department's gang database. He committed to taking disciplinary authority

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Speaker 2: away from the Police Commissioner and Executive command staff and

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Speaker 2: handing it to the Civilian Complaint Review Board, which would

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Speaker 2: be a disaster in part because the CCRB is perceived

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Speaker 2: by the rank and file as being very anti cop

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Speaker 2: and not without reason. And you know, he wants to

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Speaker 2: get rid of the SRG. The Strategic Response Group, which

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Speaker 2: is part of the nypt's Critical Response Command and is

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Speaker 2: a unit that has counter terrorism capabilities and is meant

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Speaker 2: to respond to large gatherings and do crowd control and

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Speaker 2: respond to mass casualty events. So, you know, these are

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Speaker 2: some pretty big deals and so far he has not

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Speaker 2: pulled the trigger on any of them. And I think

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Speaker 2: the reason for that is one that he tied his

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Speaker 2: hands with Jessica Tish right. He on the campaign trail

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Speaker 2: committed to keeping her on board before the election, and

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Speaker 2: what that meant was that he had to keep her

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Speaker 2: around for at least some significant period of time after

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Speaker 2: the election so as not to look like he was

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Speaker 2: breaking a campaign promise. And my guess, although I have

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Speaker 2: no inside information on this, is that she has used

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Speaker 2: that leverage to keep the NYPD in the posture that

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Speaker 2: has allowed it to make progress on the crime front.

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Speaker 2: And that progress has been very real. New York City has,

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Speaker 2: you know, really seen tremendous declines and shootings and homicides

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Speaker 2: in particular, and that's gotten a lot of media attention,

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Speaker 2: as it should. But what hasn't gotten a lot of

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Speaker 2: media attention is that New York City is still very

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Speaker 2: much in a worse place when it comes to all

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Speaker 2: of the other crime measures. So if you look at robbery, rapes,

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Speaker 2: felony assaults, car the f's, I mean car thef's are

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Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty percent higher last year than they

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Speaker 2: were in twenty eight.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So this is really interesting about therfl what you're

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Speaker 1: talking about, because I would used to be that everyone

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Speaker 1: assumed in the crime stat business, if you will, and

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Speaker 1: in the media side of it, at least, that murders,

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Speaker 1: because you can't hide a dead body and people pay attention.

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Speaker 1: That murder is the you know, that's the big thing,

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Speaker 1: and everything else will kind of move in tandem with that.

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Speaker 1: If it's going up, everything else is getting work. Like

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Speaker 1: nineteen ninety one New York twenty two hundred murders, give

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Speaker 1: or take. I mean, there were so many robberies and

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Speaker 1: everything else. It was totally right, totally like hundreds of

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Speaker 1: thousands of robberies. It was completely out of control. But

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Speaker 1: what you're telling me is that it is actually possible

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Speaker 1: to see a situation where shootings are going down, murders

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Speaker 1: are going down, which is a good thing, but everything

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Speaker 1: else is still actually really bad. What's going on like,

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Speaker 1: what's causing that dynamic in New York as you see it?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So I think what's happened is that the MPD

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Speaker 2: understood that this was such a dire problem that has

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Speaker 2: redirected so many resources to controlling that problem. Right, So

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Speaker 2: the homicide in the shooting problem is a very discreete problem.

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Speaker 2: It affects a very narrow slice of the population, and

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Speaker 2: it happens in a very small slice of the city.

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Speaker 2: So what the MIPD has done really well is directed

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Speaker 2: and flooded those zones, those high crime zones with more resources,

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Speaker 2: with more patrol officers, and it has really dedicated its

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Speaker 2: resources to developing the intelligence on the gang front to

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Speaker 2: figure out who the gang are that are driving most

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Speaker 2: of the shootings, and then using that intelligence to do

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Speaker 2: these gang takedown prosecutions. So in twenty twenty five, I

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Speaker 2: think the NYPD did almost seventy gang takedown prosecutions, which

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Speaker 2: took over four hundred gang members off the street. Now

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Speaker 2: that doesn't sound like a lot. Four hundred in a

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Speaker 2: city of eight.

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Speaker 1: Min that's a lot.

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Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, if you're talking about four hundred of

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Speaker 2: your real shooters, I mean that's a lot, especially when

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Speaker 2: you're talking about only about fifteen hundred shootings a year.

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Speaker 2: You know, during the spike, you know, you can make

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Speaker 2: real progress by getting people like that off the street.

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Speaker 2: And I think that the department has been incredibly effective

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Speaker 2: with that sort of precision and gang led policing strategy.

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Speaker 2: But on the other side of the coin, right, there

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Speaker 2: are other problems in the city that require a different

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Speaker 2: approach that you know, you need more resources to get

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Speaker 2: your arms round. And I don't think it's been a

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Speaker 2: secret that the MPD has been short officers.

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Speaker 1: Let me ask you, as a former New Yorker, Sorry,

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Speaker 1: I fled for Florida. Eventually you down here, Raphael, Eventually

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Speaker 1: it you'll love it down here. But you know, maybe

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Speaker 1: it'll be when you retire, but maybe sooner. Some people

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Speaker 1: are saying maybe sooner. But let me ask you, how

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Speaker 1: much of what we're seeing in New York is the

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Speaker 1: the decision by prosecutors And because I would assume this

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Speaker 1: is true in other cities as well, large cities that

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Speaker 1: are run entirely by Democrats that basically, unless you kill

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Speaker 1: somebody or do like a violent rape, you can get

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Speaker 1: arrested one hundred times, Like, how much of the other

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Speaker 1: stuff is that we're just actually refusing to is that

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Speaker 1: the main reason? Is it the mental health thing of

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Speaker 1: we have true wackos, And I mean that people who

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Speaker 1: are really just extreme mental health cases who keep committing

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Speaker 1: crimes short of throwing somebody in front of an oncoming

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Speaker 1: subway train, but they get arrested fifty times.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. No, I think that's a big part of it.

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Speaker 2: And I do think that the prosecutors are playing a

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Speaker 2: role in that problem. But it's not just the prosecutors.

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Speaker 2: It's the criminal justice reforms. You know, New York has

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Speaker 2: not undone a lot of the reforms that it did

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Speaker 2: in the e up to these spikes that you had.

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Speaker 2: You know, raised the age in twenty seventeen, which went

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Speaker 2: into effect in twenty eighteen, which made it basically impossible

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Speaker 2: to send teenagers who commit even serious crimes to prison

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Speaker 2: in jail, and you know, not coincidentally, the one group

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Speaker 2: where you haven't really seen a reduction in the serious

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Speaker 2: violence has been in the juvenile sector. So juveniles have

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Speaker 2: kind of resisted the broader trend of declines in serious violence,

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Speaker 2: and I think that has a lot to do with

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Speaker 2: that reform package. There is still very much in effect,

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Speaker 2: bail reform discovery reform has made it, you know, significantly

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Speaker 2: more costly to carry a criminal prosecution from inception to

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Speaker 2: a case closure, and so a lot of cases are

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Speaker 2: getting dropped, they're getting dismissed at significantly higher rates, were

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Speaker 2: not being brought altogether, not just because of the ideological

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Speaker 2: commitments of the prosecutor, but just because of the structural

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Speaker 2: barriers to prosecuting cases you know that these reforms have erected.

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Speaker 2: And then, of course, bail reform makes it so that

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Speaker 2: even if you get arrested, the vast majority of crime

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Speaker 2: that you can get arrested for in New York City

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Speaker 2: are not bail eligible. So there's basically zero chance that

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Speaker 2: you're going to end up in pretrial detention, which means

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Speaker 2: that if you can get arrested over and over and

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Speaker 2: over and you're still going to go back out into

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Speaker 2: the street as long as it's not for one of

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Speaker 2: those really serious crimes that are bail eligible, which are

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Speaker 2: you know, rareer kinds of offenses. And so it's not

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Speaker 2: at all surprising to me that you see this sort

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Speaker 2: of disparity between you know, crimes like robberies and burglaries,

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Speaker 2: and felony assaults, and then crimes like homicide and shootings.

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Speaker 2: You know, you can pay really close attention to those

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Speaker 2: most serious problems. But in a world of limited resources,

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Speaker 2: which the NYPD is very much living in, you know,

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Speaker 2: you can't wrap your arms around the entire crime problem.

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Speaker 2: And now you're starting to see that divergence. And look,

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Speaker 2: I think what the NYPD has done is defensible, right,

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Speaker 2: I mean, like, if you have to pick and choose

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Speaker 2: where you're going to put your resources money, save lives.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's great soft Raphael, Thank you so much, Raphael

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Speaker 1: ninety eight, Raphael, Great stuff, my friend, Thanks for being here, Thanks.

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Speaker 2: For having me. Appreciate you