1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,680 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Now, let's get over 7 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:26,920 Speaker 1: to Michael Dean, is a Bloomberg Intelligence senior autos analysts. 8 00:00:26,960 --> 00:00:31,160 Speaker 1: I probably read more of Michael Dean's research than anyone 9 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:35,199 Speaker 1: else on the Bloomberg terminal. Um now, I definitely do, 10 00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:38,920 Speaker 1: and he joins us now to talk about Ferrari's news CEO. Michael, 11 00:00:38,960 --> 00:00:41,280 Speaker 1: It's been a long time coming. We've been waiting for 12 00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:45,479 Speaker 1: a name to replace Louis Kennellieri, and now we get 13 00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:49,720 Speaker 1: um someone I never heard of from st Microelectronics who 14 00:00:49,760 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 1: designs what like touch screen interactivity. Yes, that's right, Um. 15 00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:57,920 Speaker 1: I haven't heard of him either, and he's certainly unknown 16 00:00:57,960 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 1: to also invest this but shouldn't be a surprise because 17 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:04,000 Speaker 1: it was only back on April fifteenth that John Alcan, 18 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:08,160 Speaker 1: the Ferrari CEO and chairman at the time, said that 19 00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:11,039 Speaker 1: he wanted someone with the background. So that's what we've 20 00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:13,959 Speaker 1: got at the moment. All right. But you know, I'm 21 00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:17,200 Speaker 1: not a car geek like Matt Miller and you and 22 00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:20,760 Speaker 1: Kevin tain In. But um, I love the sound of, 23 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:24,520 Speaker 1: you know, a Ferrari wearing down the street. Here. What 24 00:01:24,640 --> 00:01:28,440 Speaker 1: happens when they become electric? Yeah, that's a tough one 25 00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:31,320 Speaker 1: because if you listen to the officiados, they will say, 26 00:01:31,400 --> 00:01:34,600 Speaker 1: you know, we don't want electric. That certainly happened to Porsche. 27 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:36,560 Speaker 1: But we've seen with the take and it can be 28 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:39,800 Speaker 1: very successful. And we've seen from the competing luxury brands 29 00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:43,200 Speaker 1: such as with Lamborghini, Bentley and Rolls Royce they all 30 00:01:43,240 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 1: have electrification strategies. That's the way it's going. And even 31 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 1: Ferrari have said they're going to have their first battery 32 00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:52,360 Speaker 1: electric vehicle in two thousand and twenty five. You know this. 33 00:01:53,000 --> 00:01:56,040 Speaker 1: Yesterday I was listening to David Weston, he was interviewing 34 00:01:56,200 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 1: one of Ford's big execs on their new pickup truck. That, um, 35 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:04,640 Speaker 1: it looks pretty cool. It's less than twenty dollars. Um 36 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:07,920 Speaker 1: it's the Maverick. It's a small, smaller pickup truck. But 37 00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:09,799 Speaker 1: it's going to be a hybrid, And David said, why 38 00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:12,600 Speaker 1: didn't you go fully electric? Like doing a hybrid was 39 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:15,679 Speaker 1: almost to fail. No offense to David, but that's kind 40 00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 1: of the general. Um, that's the general thought right now. 41 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:24,280 Speaker 1: Why is fully electric considered better than the hybrid, which 42 00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:27,799 Speaker 1: to me is a far better solution. Well, I think 43 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:30,240 Speaker 1: it's all to do evaluation. If you look at um 44 00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 1: where Tesla is valued and the legacy automate makers want 45 00:02:34,200 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 1: want to have some of that sort of tech evaluation 46 00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:39,600 Speaker 1: rubbing off on them, and they can't do that unless 47 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:42,160 Speaker 1: they're fully electric, or that's the perception. And that's why 48 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:44,320 Speaker 1: Volkswagen has had such a good run this year because 49 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:47,480 Speaker 1: it's jumping in with both feet in terms of full 50 00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:51,000 Speaker 1: electrification and it's probably gonna overtake totaled by two thousand 51 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:53,840 Speaker 1: and twenty four. And hybrid is seen as a halfway house, 52 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 1: you know still you know, combustion engine and only half 53 00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:01,120 Speaker 1: electric and you know in a few all cars will 54 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:04,800 Speaker 1: be fully electric. I'm sure boy. All right, So Michael, 55 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:08,800 Speaker 1: where is Ferrari? You kind of suggested that they're behind 56 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:12,480 Speaker 1: some of their key competitors, like portion Lamborghinia. Is that 57 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:16,800 Speaker 1: this year has underperformed shockingly. Yeah. Yeah, I think part 58 00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:18,519 Speaker 1: of the reason is because they don't have a well 59 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:23,320 Speaker 1: defined classification strategy. So their target was to have of 60 00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:27,080 Speaker 1: their vehicles sold next year being hybrids. They're well behind 61 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 1: with that. So what the new CEO has to do 62 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:31,639 Speaker 1: and what will probably happen in the first quarter of 63 00:03:31,720 --> 00:03:35,360 Speaker 1: next year, has come out with a well defined electrification strategy, 64 00:03:35,560 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 1: also a carbon neutral strategy. That's all satisfy investors. What 65 00:03:41,320 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 1: does this mean for the super fast V twelve? Is 66 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:45,760 Speaker 1: that going to go the way of the stick shift 67 00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 1: at Ferrari? Yeah, I think so. So they just announced 68 00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:52,920 Speaker 1: a special edition V twelve which sells for half a 69 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:56,520 Speaker 1: million euros, only making five hundred of them, so getting quickly. 70 00:03:57,640 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 1: But that could be the last V twelve on Ferrari 71 00:04:00,920 --> 00:04:02,960 Speaker 1: and probably the next main engine that they'll have will 72 00:04:03,000 --> 00:04:05,960 Speaker 1: be a V six hybrid. Yeah, Matt, you should know. 73 00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:09,640 Speaker 1: I've asked Michael Dean on many occasions in his interactions 74 00:04:09,640 --> 00:04:12,760 Speaker 1: with BMW to bring back the stick shift for the 75 00:04:12,800 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 1: five series here in America. They've discontinued it. I'm just 76 00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:21,720 Speaker 1: crushed here date Michael. Michael has tried to no avail. 77 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:27,440 Speaker 1: I actually Uh. There was a time at Fiat Chrysler 78 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:29,320 Speaker 1: when I sat down with Sergio. They were just putting 79 00:04:29,320 --> 00:04:31,080 Speaker 1: out the Alfa Romeo fur C and I said, why 80 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:32,800 Speaker 1: don't you make a stick shift? I mean, this is 81 00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:35,159 Speaker 1: the car that needs to have a manual transmission. And 82 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:37,520 Speaker 1: he said, Matt, you and I would be the only buyers. 83 00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:40,800 Speaker 1: And Michael, that's is that a is that a global trend? 84 00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:42,600 Speaker 1: And mean it seems like I see more stick shifts 85 00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:45,719 Speaker 1: in Europe than I do. Certainly U US you don't 86 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:47,960 Speaker 1: see CEO many of them anymore as a hit. But 87 00:04:48,279 --> 00:04:51,279 Speaker 1: I would say, you know, driver Porsche taken and afterwards 88 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:54,440 Speaker 1: say that you know, electrification isn't bad for for cars 89 00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:58,680 Speaker 1: going forward. I'm sure it's amazing. I haven't driven one yet, 90 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:02,480 Speaker 1: but I would miss the the roar of the scream 91 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:06,640 Speaker 1: in the terms of the boxer. Michael hind Me, Michael Dean, 92 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:09,359 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. Always appreciate chatting 93 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:12,560 Speaker 1: with you with particularly Matt appreciates chatting with you talking cars. 94 00:05:12,560 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 1: Senior analyst, he covers the European automotive business. Good Partner 95 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:19,920 Speaker 1: with Kevin Tyiny New covers the the US Auto Guys 96 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:23,680 Speaker 1: and a together put out some great global research on 97 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 1: the global automotive business for Bloomberg Intelligence and b I 98 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:29,240 Speaker 1: Go and you can find all that good stuff there. 99 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:36,680 Speaker 1: Let's talk about cybersecurity because we've seen so many of 100 00:05:36,720 --> 00:05:42,160 Speaker 1: these ransomware attacks UM, Colonial Pipeline and JBS the biggest 101 00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 1: of late UM, but we've also seen issues pop up. 102 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:49,240 Speaker 1: Yesterday it turned out to be maybe a fat finger 103 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:51,599 Speaker 1: on the part of fast Lee, but it kind of 104 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:54,479 Speaker 1: freaked out markets for a moment. We saw charts go 105 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 1: a little bit haywire when um the Internet appeared to 106 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:00,760 Speaker 1: stop working for a moment. Shannon will Coinson joins as 107 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:05,279 Speaker 1: founder and CEO of to Go Cyber and just just 108 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:08,520 Speaker 1: in terms of what we saw yesterday, Shannon turned out 109 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:11,560 Speaker 1: to be nb D, but for for for a moment, 110 00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:15,560 Speaker 1: it seemed as if something horrible may have happened. Is 111 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:18,360 Speaker 1: it possible that a cyber attack could just shut down 112 00:06:18,400 --> 00:06:24,240 Speaker 1: the Worldwide Web for a little while. Absolutely, it would 113 00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 1: be interesting. And if you remember, a couple of years ago, 114 00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:29,560 Speaker 1: the Internet went down on the East Coast due to 115 00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:33,840 Speaker 1: another fat finger configuration error at one of the domain 116 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:38,800 Speaker 1: registry services. So it's absolutely possible either that a cyber 117 00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:43,279 Speaker 1: attack or one of these engineer issues could absolutely take 118 00:06:43,279 --> 00:06:47,039 Speaker 1: the Internet down. And even Russia had some issues with 119 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:49,440 Speaker 1: their Internet when they tried to do some sort of 120 00:06:49,440 --> 00:06:53,120 Speaker 1: blocking of Twitter and some of the social media platforms 121 00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:55,880 Speaker 1: that at their I s P. Level, Um, they actually 122 00:06:56,040 --> 00:06:59,320 Speaker 1: fat fingered or made some configuration errors and took down 123 00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:02,800 Speaker 1: the Internet than Russia for about half a day, I 124 00:07:02,839 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 1: think it was. So it's key. It's key to point 125 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:08,720 Speaker 1: out that doesn't mean, um, it's not simply you know, 126 00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:12,680 Speaker 1: no more cat photos on Instagram. There are ways that 127 00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:17,320 Speaker 1: the Internet works, um in these times, you know that 128 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:21,760 Speaker 1: that are vital to human life, right, Yes, absolutely. I 129 00:07:21,800 --> 00:07:24,400 Speaker 1: mean we live in a very connected world and we've 130 00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:27,840 Speaker 1: seen this migration the to to the cloud as well 131 00:07:27,840 --> 00:07:32,280 Speaker 1: as digitalization of business, so everything is connected now. Businesses 132 00:07:32,280 --> 00:07:37,600 Speaker 1: are relying on Internet cloud providers to provide essential business services, 133 00:07:37,680 --> 00:07:42,000 Speaker 1: and when those services aren't available, business stops. Shannon, it 134 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:45,080 Speaker 1: just seems like it's getting so much more frequent. Here, 135 00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 1: give us a sense of how much of this is 136 00:07:47,200 --> 00:07:51,800 Speaker 1: just you know, a knucklehead in a garage somewhere, you know, 137 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:55,800 Speaker 1: up to no good versus maybe some state actors or 138 00:07:55,960 --> 00:08:00,600 Speaker 1: organized crime. Where is this all coming from? It's definitely 139 00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:04,600 Speaker 1: a combination of both the Colonial pipeline and the JBS 140 00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 1: is those are more state sponsored affiliate cyber crime groups. 141 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:11,640 Speaker 1: And then you you also have on the flip side 142 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:14,960 Speaker 1: what is known as the script kiddies, the the you know, 143 00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 1: atypical hooded, basement dwelling hacker that you know it is 144 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:22,800 Speaker 1: just going out there for fun and seeing what you know, 145 00:08:22,920 --> 00:08:26,400 Speaker 1: kind of disruption or damage they can do. UM. So 146 00:08:26,440 --> 00:08:29,120 Speaker 1: it's definitely a combination of both of those factors, and 147 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:34,880 Speaker 1: businesses just really need to um think about their services 148 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:36,920 Speaker 1: and what they do and how much they rely on 149 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:41,920 Speaker 1: their technology for business. In the Colonial CEOs testimony to 150 00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:44,960 Speaker 1: Congress yesterday, we found out that they didn't even have 151 00:08:45,000 --> 00:08:48,240 Speaker 1: a ransomware plan in place, even though they spend something 152 00:08:48,280 --> 00:08:51,760 Speaker 1: like forty million dollars a year on cybersecurity. They never 153 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:54,760 Speaker 1: even considered what would happen if we got hit by 154 00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:58,200 Speaker 1: a ransomware attack. They didn't even have a two step 155 00:08:59,080 --> 00:09:02,320 Speaker 1: security process us. I mean, I can't even log into 156 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:06,840 Speaker 1: my computer at work without submitting my fingerprint or you know, 157 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:11,440 Speaker 1: a code from a token in any case. Um. There 158 00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:14,160 Speaker 1: there's the opposite side of that, right, Like, um, the 159 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:16,160 Speaker 1: company that runs crack, and we had a great story 160 00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:18,920 Speaker 1: about them. They have gone as far as to make 161 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:22,600 Speaker 1: your kids, eight year old kids sign n DA agreements 162 00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:25,480 Speaker 1: when they go to company picnics, And you've got to 163 00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:28,839 Speaker 1: change into everybody wears the same clothes at work UM 164 00:09:28,920 --> 00:09:31,760 Speaker 1: so that they won't be able to the the bad guys, 165 00:09:31,800 --> 00:09:33,719 Speaker 1: won't be able to tell exactly who you are. You've 166 00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:39,360 Speaker 1: got to kill all your social media UM profiles. How 167 00:09:39,400 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 1: far do do companies need to be going, Jen, I 168 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:45,920 Speaker 1: think it's about finding a balanced crack. It might be 169 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:49,560 Speaker 1: going a little bit over the top on their security protocols, 170 00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:52,560 Speaker 1: but I think it's about finding a good balance of 171 00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:57,360 Speaker 1: what makes sense and what a secure So definitely ensuring 172 00:09:57,559 --> 00:10:01,000 Speaker 1: that you have two factor authentication. I mean Colonial Pipeline 173 00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:04,160 Speaker 1: we found out. I think Bloomberg broke the news, but 174 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:08,120 Speaker 1: it was due to a single compromised account at Colonial 175 00:10:08,120 --> 00:10:13,560 Speaker 1: Pipeline that was the factor that resulted in the ransomware 176 00:10:13,600 --> 00:10:17,319 Speaker 1: attacked there. So a single employee account allowed the ransomware 177 00:10:17,440 --> 00:10:21,959 Speaker 1: to be activated on the network. So enabling two factor authentication, 178 00:10:22,160 --> 00:10:27,240 Speaker 1: having security protocols in place, having plans for when incidents occur, 179 00:10:27,880 --> 00:10:32,960 Speaker 1: and just really finding a good balance between what will 180 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:37,280 Speaker 1: not disrupt the security the operations of the business and 181 00:10:37,320 --> 00:10:40,040 Speaker 1: what's a good balance for security at the business as well, 182 00:10:40,160 --> 00:10:43,920 Speaker 1: So you know, kind of a marriage of business strategy 183 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:46,800 Speaker 1: and cybersecurity strategy working together to make sure that the 184 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:50,840 Speaker 1: business can continue operating in this new digital age. Shannon, 185 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:53,000 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. We really appreciate getting 186 00:10:53,040 --> 00:10:57,160 Speaker 1: your thoughts on insight on this rising issue ransomware in 187 00:10:57,200 --> 00:11:04,800 Speaker 1: corporate America. Shannon Wilkinson, founder and CEO of Atago Cyber Well, 188 00:11:04,920 --> 00:11:06,840 Speaker 1: before you flashback, you know a little bit more than 189 00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:09,040 Speaker 1: a year ago when we started this pandemic and the 190 00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:13,920 Speaker 1: resulting economic contraction that we experienced was just extraordinary historic. 191 00:11:14,320 --> 00:11:17,120 Speaker 1: But the recovery has been as well. As the vaccines 192 00:11:17,160 --> 00:11:21,599 Speaker 1: get in across the US, the economy is reopening and 193 00:11:21,640 --> 00:11:23,320 Speaker 1: we're seeing that in the stock market as well as 194 00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:25,839 Speaker 1: a lot of those reopening players are working very well. 195 00:11:25,920 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 1: For investor Brad McMillan. He's a Chief Investment Officer of 196 00:11:28,679 --> 00:11:31,280 Speaker 1: Commonwealth of Financial Network. They have about two thirty two 197 00:11:31,720 --> 00:11:34,559 Speaker 1: billion dollars in assets under management. So a couple of 198 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:37,480 Speaker 1: shuckles there, Brad joins us here. Brad, thanks so much 199 00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:39,640 Speaker 1: for coming on. I'd love to get your thoughts here 200 00:11:39,880 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 1: as we look back over the last fifteen years and again, 201 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:45,439 Speaker 1: the beginning of the pandemic, the contraction in the economy, 202 00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:49,079 Speaker 1: and then the reopening, how are you telling your clients 203 00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:52,880 Speaker 1: to position their portfolios here as this reopening seems to 204 00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:55,200 Speaker 1: be really gaining some momentum here in the United States. 205 00:11:56,640 --> 00:11:59,560 Speaker 1: I think it's important to put this into context because 206 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:02,360 Speaker 1: when we talk about the pullback, when we talk about 207 00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:05,880 Speaker 1: the recession, yes, of course it was the pandemic, but 208 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:09,680 Speaker 1: it was really from an economic perspective, the policy response 209 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:14,120 Speaker 1: the pandemic that sunk the economy, the shutdowns. So when 210 00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:16,200 Speaker 1: you look at this what we're seeing, you know, yes, 211 00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:20,040 Speaker 1: we've seen a fantastic recovery. Were largely just recovering back 212 00:12:20,120 --> 00:12:23,439 Speaker 1: to the previous trend line. So as we moved past 213 00:12:23,440 --> 00:12:27,000 Speaker 1: the pandemic, it's about the economy, and the economy continues 214 00:12:27,040 --> 00:12:29,320 Speaker 1: to do extremely well. You know, I think we've still 215 00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:33,040 Speaker 1: got some more upside ahead. But wasn't there any serious 216 00:12:33,160 --> 00:12:39,840 Speaker 1: damage done by the government stepping in and shutting everything down? Well, 217 00:12:39,880 --> 00:12:42,160 Speaker 1: of course there was, and that was the pullback, But 218 00:12:42,240 --> 00:12:46,080 Speaker 1: then the question becomes how lasting is that damage? The 219 00:12:46,160 --> 00:12:50,040 Speaker 1: damage was real, and it was substantial in the short term, 220 00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:52,360 Speaker 1: and if we if the government had left it at that, 221 00:12:52,920 --> 00:12:55,760 Speaker 1: then we very well might be looking at the depression 222 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:58,400 Speaker 1: right now. But that's not what they did. They gave 223 00:12:58,600 --> 00:13:01,520 Speaker 1: the cushion to us through that and to get us 224 00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:05,040 Speaker 1: back to reopen it. And because of that, we're simply 225 00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:07,480 Speaker 1: in a place where if you look a year on year, 226 00:13:07,800 --> 00:13:11,280 Speaker 1: absolutely huge huge changes. If you look over the past 227 00:13:11,320 --> 00:13:16,600 Speaker 1: two years, actually we're still pretty much on track. So, Brad, 228 00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:18,760 Speaker 1: one of the things that you know, I think about 229 00:13:18,800 --> 00:13:22,600 Speaker 1: a lot is kind of how will consumer behaviors change 230 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:25,520 Speaker 1: or will they change post pandemic as we come out 231 00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:27,600 Speaker 1: on the other side of this. For example, will people 232 00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:30,720 Speaker 1: go on cruise ships, Will they you know, go on 233 00:13:30,840 --> 00:13:33,280 Speaker 1: planes and things like that with a go to movie theaters? 234 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:35,120 Speaker 1: How are you thinking about that? And if you made 235 00:13:35,160 --> 00:13:38,640 Speaker 1: any you know, investment calls based upon what you think 236 00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:42,720 Speaker 1: might be some changing consumer behaviors, well, certainly when you 237 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:45,240 Speaker 1: look at the airline numbers, you know you can make 238 00:13:45,280 --> 00:13:47,640 Speaker 1: a good case that weas your travel is well on 239 00:13:47,679 --> 00:13:50,760 Speaker 1: its way back. The real question there from an investment 240 00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:53,760 Speaker 1: perspective is going to be our business travelers going to 241 00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:55,680 Speaker 1: be coming back because that's where a lot of the 242 00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:58,559 Speaker 1: profits come from, and there I think the news is 243 00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:01,120 Speaker 1: a lot more mixed. So certainly when you look at 244 00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:03,520 Speaker 1: the headlines, I think it's fair to say people are 245 00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:08,560 Speaker 1: changing their behaviors. I don't think the the extensive use 246 00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:11,520 Speaker 1: of internet shopping, for example, is going to go away. 247 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:14,600 Speaker 1: People have found out how easy that is. But more 248 00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:18,800 Speaker 1: common things like restaurants, absolutely they're coming back, and I 249 00:14:18,840 --> 00:14:21,440 Speaker 1: think the market has already gotten ahead of that. I 250 00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:24,160 Speaker 1: don't think there's a lot of opportunity there at the moment, 251 00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:27,080 Speaker 1: but certainly, you know there was some money to be 252 00:14:27,160 --> 00:14:29,120 Speaker 1: made about what that, you know, six or eight months 253 00:14:29,160 --> 00:14:32,560 Speaker 1: ago when the uncertainty was at a peak. So where 254 00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:36,160 Speaker 1: is the opportunity. I mean, if you've got spare cash 255 00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:38,080 Speaker 1: sitting around, need to put it to work, what do 256 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:41,640 Speaker 1: you do with it? I think the stock market in 257 00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:44,080 Speaker 1: general is a good place because when you look at 258 00:14:44,600 --> 00:14:48,160 Speaker 1: the earnings expectations and how the markets priced, we're still 259 00:14:48,160 --> 00:14:50,960 Speaker 1: in a position to see earnings go up. I think 260 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:55,920 Speaker 1: healthcare there are some opportunities that still very much. We're 261 00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 1: seeing a revolution, particularly in biotech. You know that hasn't 262 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:03,320 Speaker 1: been fully appreciated yet UM some firms are now putting 263 00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:08,960 Speaker 1: in UM requests to evaluate vaccines for the slow and 264 00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:11,440 Speaker 1: if that comes through, I mean obviously that would be huge. 265 00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:14,800 Speaker 1: So there's knowledge opportunities. If you want something that's a 266 00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:17,840 Speaker 1: little bit more basic, I think financials. I think is 267 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:21,640 Speaker 1: the economy normalizes, we're going to see the interest rates normalized, 268 00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:23,880 Speaker 1: and that's going to give a tail wind to financials. 269 00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 1: And I still think there's some opportunities there. So, Brad, 270 00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:30,680 Speaker 1: is this economy reopens. One of the things that you know, 271 00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:34,800 Speaker 1: economists are really looking closely at, certainly is the employment 272 00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:37,480 Speaker 1: getting people back to work, and we're still we've had 273 00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:42,040 Speaker 1: a couple of months of kind of blow expectation job numbers. 274 00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:44,360 Speaker 1: How concerned are you about that? Are you concerned that 275 00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:47,640 Speaker 1: perhaps something structurally may have changed in this economy where 276 00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:49,760 Speaker 1: you know, some of those jobs just aren't going to 277 00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:53,800 Speaker 1: come back if you go back that that's a common fear, 278 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:55,880 Speaker 1: and I don't agree with it. I was actually just 279 00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:58,680 Speaker 1: looking at that this morning, because if you go back 280 00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 1: to prior crises with typically happens is people move out 281 00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:06,040 Speaker 1: of the labor force. Okay, so they say, okay, it's 282 00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:08,520 Speaker 1: not worth it, and then the economy starts to open up, 283 00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:11,040 Speaker 1: wages start to rise again, and then they move back in. 284 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:13,560 Speaker 1: And that's exactly what we're seeing. If you look at 285 00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:17,080 Speaker 1: the not in the labor force people, that's people who 286 00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:20,280 Speaker 1: want a job that is right now at about the 287 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 1: same level as the total number of jobs available. So 288 00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:25,640 Speaker 1: it's just a question of getting those people back into 289 00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:27,920 Speaker 1: the labor force. And if you look at that, you 290 00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:30,240 Speaker 1: can see them actually that you can see that happening. 291 00:16:30,760 --> 00:16:32,480 Speaker 1: So I think that's the first thing. This is a 292 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:36,240 Speaker 1: totally normal process. We've seen this movie before. I think 293 00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:39,160 Speaker 1: the other thing that is getting people a little too 294 00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:42,120 Speaker 1: wound up is they're saying, how do we get back 295 00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:46,920 Speaker 1: to the record low unemployment levels we saw before the pandemic. Frankly, 296 00:16:46,920 --> 00:16:50,120 Speaker 1: that was unusual. If you look at the averages will 297 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:53,720 Speaker 1: be if five is a pretty normal unemployment rate, we 298 00:16:53,760 --> 00:16:55,920 Speaker 1: should be there in the next three to six months, 299 00:16:55,960 --> 00:16:58,240 Speaker 1: and after that it's just real progress. So I think 300 00:16:58,240 --> 00:17:01,880 Speaker 1: by the end of the year will be falling. Brad, 301 00:17:01,880 --> 00:17:04,240 Speaker 1: thanks very much for joining us. Brad McMillan is the 302 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:08,720 Speaker 1: chief investment Officer at Commonwealth Financial Network. As Paul says, 303 00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:12,520 Speaker 1: they have two hundred and thirty three billion dollars under management, 304 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:17,119 Speaker 1: looking at a continued recovery for the economy, back to 305 00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:19,560 Speaker 1: the trend that we saw before the pandemic. And as 306 00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:23,280 Speaker 1: he points out, that trend was very good. We were 307 00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:26,919 Speaker 1: doing quite well economically before this thing hit and we 308 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:35,120 Speaker 1: shut all of our businesses down. This is Bloomberg alright, Matt. 309 00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:36,520 Speaker 1: You know that one of the reasons I always love 310 00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:39,359 Speaker 1: these big take stories is because they often get me 311 00:17:39,440 --> 00:17:42,040 Speaker 1: to say, I didn't think of that, or you know, 312 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:45,119 Speaker 1: that's how it works. Um. This most recent story, we're 313 00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:47,760 Speaker 1: talking about big oil companies. Matt. We've seen all the 314 00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:51,840 Speaker 1: news shareholders forcing them to go green, you know, reduce 315 00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:55,800 Speaker 1: their carbon footprint. But there's still demand out there for energy. 316 00:17:56,240 --> 00:17:58,840 Speaker 1: So who's filling that void as some of the big 317 00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:02,320 Speaker 1: majors pulled back? Kevin Crowley, he's a US oil reporter 318 00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:05,359 Speaker 1: for Bloomberg News. He joins us with his big big 319 00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:08,480 Speaker 1: take story entitled the Retreat of Excellent and the oil 320 00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:11,800 Speaker 1: Majors won't stop Fast or fuel. Kevin, thanks so much 321 00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:14,000 Speaker 1: for for joining us here, and I love your story 322 00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:16,320 Speaker 1: here because it really goes to the issue of Okay, 323 00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:19,760 Speaker 1: Exxon and Chevron and Shell and all those guys. They're 324 00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:23,800 Speaker 1: pulling back on their energy footprint. But who's filling the 325 00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:28,520 Speaker 1: void exactly? That's a that's a that's the big question. 326 00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:32,040 Speaker 1: And really what we're saying here is it's national oil companies. 327 00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:35,280 Speaker 1: So those from those from Saudi Arabia, those from Russia, 328 00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:39,120 Speaker 1: those from those from parts of Africa, these are these 329 00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:42,000 Speaker 1: are these are companies that um, you know, less transparent 330 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:47,159 Speaker 1: and and and have a less strong climate record UM 331 00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:50,680 Speaker 1: and also m really are only beholden to their to 332 00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:53,400 Speaker 1: their national governments. They do not have the same kind 333 00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:58,360 Speaker 1: of shareholder pressure that the publicly listed entities have UM 334 00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:02,520 Speaker 1: and so UM we by the oil majors retreating it, 335 00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:05,480 Speaker 1: it opens the gates for these companies to come in 336 00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:09,000 Speaker 1: and fill the gap, which will pose a new challenge 337 00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:12,840 Speaker 1: for climate activists going forward. I mean, the headline could 338 00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:17,080 Speaker 1: well be climate activists that oil majors shoot themselves in 339 00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:22,879 Speaker 1: the foot, because basically they're they're convincing UM, you know, 340 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:27,720 Speaker 1: these publicly traded companies to hand back oil production or 341 00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:33,160 Speaker 1: hand over oil production to UM Chinese nationals, Russian nationals, 342 00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:35,840 Speaker 1: Middle East nationals, and they're not going to do such 343 00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:39,640 Speaker 1: a great job when it comes to um shrinking their 344 00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:43,560 Speaker 1: carbon footprint. Well, I think that's I think that, I 345 00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:45,480 Speaker 1: think that's true, and I think, yeah, but I think 346 00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:48,240 Speaker 1: I think the climate movement is focused on the oil 347 00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:52,200 Speaker 1: because it's really it's the it's the lowest hanging fruit. UM. 348 00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:54,119 Speaker 1: And so you know, these were these are these are 349 00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:57,879 Speaker 1: companies that are beholding to their shareholders and climate activists 350 00:19:57,880 --> 00:20:00,560 Speaker 1: you know, have worked over many many years to you, um, 351 00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:05,199 Speaker 1: to to gain influence through through the shareholding. Mean, the 352 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:10,080 Speaker 1: most recent example was exceon Um lost three directors just 353 00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:12,719 Speaker 1: just a few weeks ago as a result of growing 354 00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:16,480 Speaker 1: climate climate activism. UM. But it's and it's not just 355 00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:20,280 Speaker 1: the climate activist Kevin I noticed recently when Congress was 356 00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:25,320 Speaker 1: questioning CEOs of the big banks, they were chiding them 357 00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:29,840 Speaker 1: for doing business with big oil majors, almost throwing national 358 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:36,920 Speaker 1: um security, energy security concerns aside. But that's right, that's right, Yeah, 359 00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:39,879 Speaker 1: it's it's under pressure from I mean, these or companies 360 00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:44,280 Speaker 1: under pressure from from political class. They are under pressure 361 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:46,120 Speaker 1: from the from the banks who are looking to clean 362 00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:51,040 Speaker 1: up their own carbon footprint, shareholders, consumers, everyone, everyone, everyone around, 363 00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:53,119 Speaker 1: everyone is rounding on them. Now and I think, but 364 00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:55,000 Speaker 1: I think, but I think it's it's it's really it's 365 00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:57,919 Speaker 1: a They are the lowest hanging routs here, and I 366 00:20:57,920 --> 00:21:00,320 Speaker 1: think the climate movement thinks that, you know, we can 367 00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:03,639 Speaker 1: we can get these guys to change the Exxon Chevron's 368 00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:07,600 Speaker 1: shell vps of the world, then other other other companies 369 00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:10,360 Speaker 1: will will fulfall in line and will follow because while 370 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:13,280 Speaker 1: the oil majors only produce around fifteen percent of the 371 00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:16,320 Speaker 1: world oil at the moment, they are at the forefront 372 00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:20,800 Speaker 1: of much of the technolog technologies around and they do lead. 373 00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:25,159 Speaker 1: So the thinking is that maybe you know, some of 374 00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:29,639 Speaker 1: these national oil companies will start will start to follow 375 00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:32,560 Speaker 1: their lead if if big oil does make a successful 376 00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:36,840 Speaker 1: pivot towards greener energy. It's interesting because you know that 377 00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:38,960 Speaker 1: part of your story where Exxon was getting out of 378 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:42,440 Speaker 1: an Iraqi field, and you know they tried to sell 379 00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:45,640 Speaker 1: their steak, but nobody else would was even bidding forward. 380 00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:48,119 Speaker 1: So then I guess Iraq had to come in and 381 00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:52,080 Speaker 1: buy it, or China or China altos. Right, Well, the process, yeah, 382 00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:54,440 Speaker 1: the process is ongoing, but it's actually a remarkable it's 383 00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:56,560 Speaker 1: actually a remarkable turner turn of events. I mean, this 384 00:21:56,720 --> 00:21:58,720 Speaker 1: was this is this is one of the prized oils 385 00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:03,159 Speaker 1: after after the Second Iraq War, exons stepped into to 386 00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:06,239 Speaker 1: take it, and really it hasn't really performed UM as 387 00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:08,360 Speaker 1: well as they would like. If they're looking to they're 388 00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:10,440 Speaker 1: looking to get out of it. But as you said, 389 00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:11,959 Speaker 1: as you said, none of the none of the other 390 00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:15,880 Speaker 1: majors want to take it, and their Iraq UM made 391 00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:19,040 Speaker 1: a statement that actually they were interested in buying it themselves, 392 00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:21,920 Speaker 1: which is which is remarkable. Really mean, whether it whether 393 00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,639 Speaker 1: it actually happens or not, is a is another thing. 394 00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 1: But the fact that they're even considering taking taking the 395 00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:31,280 Speaker 1: stake is it's quite as quite a remarkable curn of events. 396 00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:33,040 Speaker 1: And of course the other option then is the the 397 00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:37,000 Speaker 1: Chinese state state or backed companies. So either way, UM, 398 00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:40,000 Speaker 1: this field is likely to move out of the hands 399 00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:42,480 Speaker 1: of a Western super major and into the hands of 400 00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:47,040 Speaker 1: UM state state backed entity, which which are far less 401 00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:50,240 Speaker 1: transparent than the ones than the big oil companies. That 402 00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:52,479 Speaker 1: you have to wonder at some point if the US 403 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,280 Speaker 1: government another Western governments are going to say, hang on 404 00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:57,720 Speaker 1: a second, this isn't working out the way we wanted 405 00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:01,560 Speaker 1: it to. UM. I noticed in your story that Mexico's 406 00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:04,640 Speaker 1: pem X, for example, is set to buy a Texas 407 00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:09,560 Speaker 1: refinery from Shell. So it's not even just properties abroad 408 00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:13,600 Speaker 1: that are going to these nationals, it's even um, you know, 409 00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:18,120 Speaker 1: part of the infrastructure on home soil if you will. 410 00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:22,200 Speaker 1: That's right, that's right. That was That was That was 411 00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:26,360 Speaker 1: another surprising turn of events because you know, obviously most 412 00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:28,600 Speaker 1: of the time it's the private, private oil companies you know, 413 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:32,440 Speaker 1: buy assets from or investing with state owned oil companies. 414 00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:34,680 Speaker 1: And really in this in this situation Pemic and Shell, 415 00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:38,119 Speaker 1: we're actually having the the reverse happening. But really it 416 00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:42,480 Speaker 1: comes back to demands. Um, you know, if if assuming 417 00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:45,240 Speaker 1: demands that stay strong as it has, the demands for 418 00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:47,360 Speaker 1: oil and gas as strong as it has done done 419 00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:50,639 Speaker 1: coming out of become of the pandemic, it really this 420 00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:54,280 Speaker 1: whole retraction from from the major's really opens the door 421 00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:56,360 Speaker 1: to the to these national oil companies, you know who 422 00:23:56,760 --> 00:24:00,280 Speaker 1: who are going to be the producers of of last aws. 423 00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:03,879 Speaker 1: So you know, while while we while the West is 424 00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:07,159 Speaker 1: doing certainly doing a job on the supply side, I 425 00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:10,000 Speaker 1: think the big big challenge really is to to reduce 426 00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:12,520 Speaker 1: fuels is on the demand side. As long as people 427 00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:15,920 Speaker 1: keep consuming oil and gas, keep you, companies will step 428 00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:18,000 Speaker 1: in to produce it. Now, whether that's the majors or 429 00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,879 Speaker 1: whether that's the national oil companies, you know, it's as 430 00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:23,639 Speaker 1: long as people are using oil and gas, um, you 431 00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:27,320 Speaker 1: know companies are going to be there to provide it. Absolutely. Hey, 432 00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:31,600 Speaker 1: great piece, Kevin. Really love UM the Big Takes series 433 00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:34,320 Speaker 1: and I love this one especially, So congratulations on that. 434 00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:38,159 Speaker 1: Kevin Crowley, Laura Hurst, and Rachel Adams heard writing the 435 00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:42,159 Speaker 1: retreat of Exxon and the oil majors won't stop fossil fuel. 436 00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:45,919 Speaker 1: Check it out and I Big Take Go. This is Bloomberg. 437 00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:49,439 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can 438 00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:53,200 Speaker 1: subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever 439 00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:56,960 Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter 440 00:24:57,280 --> 00:25:00,679 Speaker 1: at Matt Miller V three, and I False Sweeney. I'm 441 00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:03,320 Speaker 1: on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast. You can 442 00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:06,240 Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio. M