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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along

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Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and a Marie Hordern. Join us each

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Speaker 2: day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and

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Speaker 2: geopolitics from our global headquarters in New York City. We

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Speaker 2: are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to

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Speaker 2: nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify

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Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and as always on the

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 3: We begin this hour with stocks rising as traders boost

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Speaker 3: fed rate cut bet after cooler inflation data. Michael o'rouric

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Speaker 3: of Jones trading is cautious, writing not only are stocks

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Speaker 3: expensive in their own right, but they are also at

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Speaker 3: the most expensive levels versus treasuries in twenty two years.

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Speaker 3: Michael joins us. Now, Michael, good morning, and thank you

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Speaker 3: so much for joining us on this holiday week. Merry

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Speaker 3: Christmas and happy holidays to you and your family. So,

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Speaker 3: if you think stocks are very expensive, now what are

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Speaker 3: you doing? Are you selling?

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Speaker 4: I think you just have to be more selective.

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Speaker 5: The S and P five hundred equal weight is trades

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Speaker 5: at a significant discount to the S and P five hundred,

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Speaker 5: so of course that expensive nature within the S and

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Speaker 5: P five.

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Speaker 4: Hundred, it's all off the top end in the megan

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Speaker 4: cap stocks.

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Speaker 5: And I think obviously we've had a tremendous two year

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Speaker 5: run here, we have a new presidential administration coming in.

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Speaker 5: You can expect a lot of volatility. So they're definitely

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Speaker 5: a pocket. A lot of numerous value stocks out there

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Speaker 5: in the market in places you can invest.

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Speaker 4: You just have to be a lot more.

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Speaker 5: Selective, and I'd be cautious about chasing the S and

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Speaker 5: P five hundred itself.

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Speaker 3: You talked about Trump in your note, and you said,

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Speaker 3: in the midst of the post election euphoria, the equity

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Speaker 3: market forgot that Trump is volatility bullish. Not only is

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Speaker 3: Trump willing to break a few eggs to make an omelet,

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Speaker 3: he will break a few extra simply because he again,

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Speaker 3: was the market reminded of that scarlet mention at the

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Speaker 3: top of the show we almost had a government chuck out.

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Speaker 3: Was the market reminded of that last week?

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Speaker 5: I think it was, and I think people are starting

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Speaker 5: to realize, while you know, a lot of The rally

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Speaker 5: pins the election has been this, we're going to cut spending,

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Speaker 5: we're gonna cut regulations, we're going to keep our tax cuts,

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Speaker 5: and we're going to grow GDP and you know, you

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Speaker 5: go through this government shutdown or potentially you know, you know,

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Speaker 5: we risk the government shut down here, and you're like,

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Speaker 5: you have to just remember, there's there's a lot it's

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Speaker 5: it's not an easy path to achieve those goals. Those

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Speaker 5: are great goals to try to achieve. It's you know,

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Speaker 5: I love it, it's ambitious, and I hope we do

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Speaker 5: achieve it. But you're not gonna It's Washington, d C.

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Speaker 5: You're not going to get there in a straight path.

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Speaker 5: And the market shouldn't price all that in right away,

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Speaker 5: which is essentially what we've start to do in the

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Speaker 5: equity markets.

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Speaker 4: And and you know what you're seeing in the bond

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Speaker 4: market here.

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Speaker 5: Is it's not fully believing everything that the equity market

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Speaker 5: is excited about. And that's why you see a ten

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Speaker 5: year yield up above four and a half percent.

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Speaker 1: Well, speaking of the market pricing in a lot of positivity,

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Speaker 1: I look at Tesla shares up about sixty seven percent

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Speaker 1: since election date. Elon Musk has really been a tailwind

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Speaker 1: for the overall market through Tesla mainly, at what point

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Speaker 1: does he become a headwind for the market.

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Speaker 4: Well, that's the interesting aspect.

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Speaker 5: You know, One thing I find interesting is Elon Musk

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Speaker 5: has numerous companies, most of them private. He can benefit

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Speaker 5: from a relationship with President Trump through any of those

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Speaker 5: ventures as well. So for everyone to just bet on Tesla,

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Speaker 5: which you know, you were just talking about the automotive industry,

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Speaker 5: there's a lot of challenges out there, it seems like

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Speaker 5: a really aggressive, myopic bet. So you know, going forward,

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Speaker 5: I think people again they need to be a little

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Speaker 5: more pragmatic out there and realized.

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Speaker 4: Elon Musk is an influential guy. He's a powerful guy.

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Speaker 5: But it does you know, Tesla is not necessarily gonna

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Speaker 5: be the biggest beneficiary of Trump's really you know, musk

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Speaker 5: relationship with Trump and as we know, sometimes you know

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Speaker 5: these relationships President Trump had, they go through rut periods,

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Speaker 5: and so again it's really risky you just bet on

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Speaker 5: one stock to expect this, you know, this this bromance

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Speaker 5: that can give.

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Speaker 1: You well you mentioned Tesla, of course, it is a

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Speaker 1: low hanging fruit here when you're looking at who would

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Speaker 1: benefit from the Trump trade. When it comes to pragmatic

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Speaker 1: approaches to challenges, I think about what's going on with

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Speaker 1: Honda and Nissan, and Hemery brought this up earlier. This

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Speaker 1: as an example of the M and A that we

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Speaker 1: can expect from where the markets is, From where you sit,

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Speaker 1: is this a pragmatic deal that has positive ramifications for

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Speaker 1: US automakers?

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Speaker 5: You know, I'm not an automotive industry expert, but I

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Speaker 5: do agree with everything you both said about this is

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Speaker 5: a deal coming out of weakness. And we know all

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Speaker 5: the weakness that's going on in Germany, and of course

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Speaker 5: their auto industry is he there. So you're looking at

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Speaker 5: a situation where there are a lot of challenges out

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Speaker 5: there in this world. And again, you don't want to

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Speaker 5: see companies making deals out of weakness, but it's clearly

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Speaker 5: that's what's going on here. So you have to think

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Speaker 5: there's some risk out there.

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Speaker 3: When you look at the biggest risks heading into next year,

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Speaker 3: obviously the auto industry is one of them. What else

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Speaker 3: is on the horizon.

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Speaker 5: I just think it's the overall enthusiasm for everything we've

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Speaker 5: had such a specuative market.

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Speaker 4: Bloomberg has this great article about the wildest.

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Speaker 5: Trades of twenty twenty four, and you see that, whether

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Speaker 5: it's the leverage ETFs, you know, some of these other

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Speaker 5: specutive trades you're seeing out there, paying these significant premiums

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Speaker 5: to net asks of value to some of these you know,

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Speaker 5: stocks and ETFs out there. There's a lot of optimism

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Speaker 5: built into this market right now. And it's not to

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Speaker 5: say there's not things to be optimistic about. It's just

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Speaker 5: when you start overpaying for them, you open yourself to this

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Speaker 5: additional up to this additional risk that you know, if

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Speaker 5: there's a bump in the road when your priced for perfection,

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Speaker 5: it can be pretty painful.

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Speaker 3: And the market right now is pricing in good policy

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Speaker 3: from the income the administration, this Trump trade. Yet we

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Speaker 3: haven't seen any of that policy yet. His term will

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Speaker 3: begin January twentieth. Michael, how are you thinking about the

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Speaker 3: sequencing of next year when it comes to things like immigration,

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Speaker 3: tax cut, and tariffs.

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Speaker 5: Well, I mean that's exactly you know, that's exactly what

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Speaker 5: I'm talking about. It's you know, translating this this this

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Speaker 5: policy goes to actual policy takes a lot longer than

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Speaker 5: the markets obviously pricing at this point in time anyone

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Speaker 5: remembers the first Trump administration. He you know, he loves

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Speaker 5: to negotiate, he loves to drive a hard bargain, he

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Speaker 5: loves to push.

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Speaker 4: You know, his opponents to the other end of the table.

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Speaker 5: So it's not going to be pretty and you know,

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Speaker 5: trying to achieve these goals. So I think I think

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Speaker 5: that's a key thing that the market's risking. So when

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Speaker 5: you think of the sequence of policies you talk about,

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Speaker 5: it's going to take time for all that to play out,

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Speaker 5: and again the markets tried to price it all in

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Speaker 5: here in the span of two months.

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Speaker 1: Mike, I'm thinking about what's going on in the treasury market,

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Speaker 1: and on the long end, we've really seen yield steadily

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Speaker 1: rise over the last two weeks, and there was some

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Speaker 1: relief on Friday, but it does look like yields are

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Speaker 1: inching higher once again today and that yield curve continues

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Speaker 1: to steepen. How does that set us up for twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five or do you kind of dismiss what we're

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Speaker 1: seeing in the final week here.

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Speaker 4: I don't dismiss what we're seeing in the final week here.

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Speaker 5: I do think the ten year yield is so important

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Speaker 5: because so many instruments price off that the market prices

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Speaker 5: off that. I mean, right now, the S and P

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Speaker 5: five hundred earnings yield is about fifty or sixty basis

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Speaker 5: points below the treasury yields, as we mentioned earlier, and

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Speaker 5: so you're talking about stocks and more expensive relative to

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Speaker 5: your quote unquote safe, risk free acid treasuries than they've

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Speaker 5: been in twenty two years. That just, you know, is

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Speaker 5: an example of the speculative further out there in the

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Speaker 5: equity market, what happens if we see this ten year

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Speaker 5: yield can chinue your rise and test five percent. Equities

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Speaker 5: will undoubtedly see selling pressure if that happens right now,

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Speaker 5: I think this is a little bit of a crisis

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Speaker 5: of confidence in the Fed, in the manner in which they.

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Speaker 4: Reverse course last week.

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Speaker 5: Uh, there's also a little comment, you know, obviously concerns

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Speaker 5: about inflation up to again and concerns about President Trump

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Speaker 5: having inflationary policies. So if we see this ten year

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Speaker 5: yield continue rage, you're going to feel that reverberate throughout

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Speaker 5: all financial markets. So it's something we want to see

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Speaker 5: stabilize here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, what would be the catalyst that would send that

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Speaker 1: tenure yield to five percent.

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Speaker 5: I think it's everything we've seen, Like you had, the

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Speaker 5: FED last week, you know, you know, conclude one hundred

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Speaker 5: you know basis point easing cycle while increasing their inflation

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Speaker 5: forecast for the next two years. You know, basically, according

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Speaker 5: to the forecast they released Wednesday, we're not we'll run

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Speaker 5: for above target, you know, above its inflation target for

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Speaker 5: six years, which seems kind of ridiculous to be cutting

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Speaker 5: rates when.

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Speaker 4: You're doing that. So that's one issue.

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Speaker 5: Obviously, depending on how all these Trump policies play out,

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Speaker 5: Everyone's concerned that they're going to drive inflation, and that's

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Speaker 5: that's a lingering fear. So treasuries have really been weak

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Speaker 5: send or you know, acted poorly sent just before the election.

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Speaker 5: This was just the latest round of the selloff, and

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Speaker 5: like I said, we need to see them stabilize. If

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Speaker 5: they do push up to five percent, the S and

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Speaker 5: P five hundred is going to have a you know,

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Speaker 5: significant pressure on it.

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Speaker 3: Michael, what's your base case for next year in terms

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Speaker 3: of SED cuts.

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Speaker 5: I think, you know, I'm gonna go with the forecast

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Speaker 5: at fifty basis points at this point, you know, and

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Speaker 5: seeing although the Fed seems to change in every quarter.

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Speaker 5: But I think we have a very strong economy. I'm

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Speaker 5: surprised they cut rates as they did. You know, GDP

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Speaker 5: for this quarter is tracking three percent. GDP last quarter

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Speaker 5: was three percent. When you think about the you know,

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Speaker 5: the higher rate environment in the past two years, it

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Speaker 5: has not slowed the economy. So when the Fed keep

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Speaker 5: sitting we're restricted. You know, I'm not seeing it. You're

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Speaker 5: not seeing the unemployment rates four point two percent, which

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Speaker 5: is basically at the Fed's want run target.

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Speaker 4: So it's it's.

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Speaker 5: Really hard to predict what the Fed's going to do

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Speaker 5: because they keep moving their policy goals around and it

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Speaker 5: doesn't seem to be tied to the movements within the economy.

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Speaker 6: So hire for longer.

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Speaker 3: In twenty twenty five, Michael Ourk and Jones Trading, thank

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Speaker 3: you so much for joining us. Happy holidays and New

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Speaker 3: Year to you.

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Speaker 1: Joining us now is Clint Henderson of The Point Sky. Clint,

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Speaker 1: it is good to speak with you. Ann, Marie and

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Speaker 1: I are in the office because it is a Monday

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Speaker 1: and we still have two days ago before Christmas. Talk

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Speaker 1: a little bit about the calendar effect because with the

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Speaker 1: holidays on Wednesday this year, it means there isn't a

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Speaker 1: natural long weekend for people to take, and maybe that

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Speaker 1: spreads the travel out a little bit here.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, that's certainly helping.

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Speaker 7: Interestingly, though, the Sunday after Thanksgiving we saw the highest

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Speaker 7: single day ever, so that didn't really impact Thanksgiving travel,

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Speaker 7: and we're expecting record breaking crowds. I will say the

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Speaker 7: airlines got through the busiest part of the lead up

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Speaker 7: to Christmas fairly well, despite a few storms, so that's

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Speaker 7: good news. And I do think the airlines in general

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Speaker 7: are in better position. They're staffed up, they have the

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Speaker 7: planes they need, they have the people they need to

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Speaker 7: get things moving quickly, and they seem to be able

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Speaker 7: to recover from storms better right now too. So barring

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Speaker 7: a major storm like we saw in twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 7: fingers crossed will get through the holidays with flying colors.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so far, no major storm at the moment, and

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Speaker 1: also good news, no shutdown either, so everyone can get

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Speaker 1: through airport security the way that you would expect them

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Speaker 1: to during a busy holiday season. People are obviously traveling

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Speaker 1: to visit family or go home, but they're also going

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Speaker 1: away on vacation. Where are they going to Clint?

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Speaker 6: So it's really interesting.

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Speaker 7: We've seen the usual suspects are obviously very popular. Los Angeles,

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Speaker 7: New York has been going through some incredible record breaking

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Speaker 7: crowds the big cities in the US and also places

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Speaker 7: like Florida and Cancoon. But we're now seeing really interesting

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Speaker 7: data that suggests Americans are going much further. They seem

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Speaker 7: to be being inspired by TikTok and Instagram to really

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Speaker 7: get out there and have a.

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Speaker 6: Little bit more exotic travel.

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Speaker 7: Tokyo is actually one of the top cities according to

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Speaker 7: Chase this year for international travel, which is really interesting.

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Speaker 6: The strong US dollar is certainly helping.

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Speaker 7: I think that's going to really push up numbers in

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Speaker 7: Europe as well, since the euro has been falling lately.

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Speaker 7: So look for some international bargains. I just booked myself

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Speaker 7: a trip in January to Portugal. Incredible what you can

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Speaker 7: get because the US dollar is so strong right now.

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Speaker 7: And then, don't sleep on shoulder season travel. A lot

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Speaker 7: of people are traveling now well into winter and then

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Speaker 7: of course for the shoulder season which we love, which

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Speaker 7: is spring and fall, and people are spending longer away.

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Speaker 7: That's a new survey we just did found people are

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Speaker 7: spending five and a half days as opposed to four

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Speaker 7: and a half days like they used to. So people

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Speaker 7: are going further and they're going for longer.

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Speaker 3: Why are they spending longer? Is that they feel that

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Speaker 3: is it? The strong us do feel like their money

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Speaker 3: can stretch them that much longer on a trip.

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Speaker 6: I do think that's part of it.

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Speaker 7: I also think people are really into experiences now, as

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Speaker 7: you're sound bite alluded to. And I think the other

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Speaker 7: interesting thing is people can work from home now, so

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Speaker 7: they're tacking on a day or two two business trips

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Speaker 7: that they might not have in the past because they

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Speaker 7: have to be in the office. So you know, you're

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Speaker 7: in the office today, but I'm able to work from home,

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Speaker 7: and I think more and more people have been able

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Speaker 7: to do that, So you're seeing the amount of time

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Speaker 7: they're spending away stretched a bit.

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Speaker 3: Clint, any viewers that are preparing to travel this week,

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Speaker 3: what's your number one tip?

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Speaker 6: Have the airline app installed on your phone.

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Speaker 7: Not only is that how you're going to get Wi

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Speaker 7: Fi and entertainment on the plane. You can track your flights,

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Speaker 7: see if it's on time, see where your plane is

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Speaker 7: coming from. And finally that's where they're going to offer

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Speaker 7: you cheap upgrades, so you beat out e lead travelers

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Speaker 7: like me, so you can get a cheap upgrade to

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Speaker 7: first class.

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Speaker 6: So who doesn't want that as a Christmas gift?

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Speaker 4: I love that.

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Speaker 1: What about luggage, That's a big issue here, And I

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Speaker 1: know that this might sound kind of trivial, but you know,

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Speaker 1: we're all trying to get by bringing it on as

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Speaker 1: a carry on, and yet when you get to the

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Speaker 1: airport and you're at the gate, they make you check

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Speaker 1: it in anyway at the gate they say, oh, well

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Speaker 1: wave the fees, but that's you know, everyone's trying to

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Speaker 1: avoid that scenario. Any advice on that front.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, you know, I'm team carry on, so I hate

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Speaker 7: checking baggage. But during Christmas when I come from New

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Speaker 7: York to California, I bring presents with me, so I

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Speaker 7: do check bags. And you know what, I got an

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Speaker 7: Apple air tag for the first time in my life.

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Speaker 7: You know, we've been writing about this and talking about

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Speaker 7: it for years. My team loves it, but it's the

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Speaker 7: first time I've used it, and that is really cool.

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Speaker 7: And now with the air tags, some airlines allow you

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Speaker 7: to share the location with the airline, so if your

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Speaker 7: luggage gets lost, so maybe I have to look more

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Speaker 7: into checking luggage in the future and try not to

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Speaker 7: be the last to board, pay for that extra seat,

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Speaker 7: get the airline credit cards so.

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Speaker 6: You can be among the first to board that plane.

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Speaker 1: Talking your book, Clint Henderson of The Points Guy, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much for joining us.

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Speaker 8: Really appreciate it.

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Speaker 1: Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel is staying optimistic. He says,

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Speaker 1: while we don't expect sales to rise to normal levels,

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Speaker 1: they will be hired than last year. Those who can

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Speaker 1: afford to buy at higher rates will probably do so.

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Speaker 1: Mortgage rates will probably end up lower than they start

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Speaker 1: in a year, but not low. Jonathan joins us. Now, so, Jonathan,

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Speaker 1: you have actually noticed an uptic in existing home sales,

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Speaker 1: in particular in high end markets in places like New York.

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Speaker 8: Yes, that's actually been the story if you think about it.

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Speaker 9: Many potential home buyers have been waiting for about three

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Speaker 9: years since the initial FED moves, and I think time

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Speaker 9: is sort of running out for people as life moves on.

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Speaker 9: We're already seeing in contract activity and some of the

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Speaker 9: markets that we cover really begin rising it back in

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Speaker 9: the summer, not just after the election, but of course

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Speaker 9: on the National Front. Existing home sales for the last

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Speaker 9: couple of months have been up, which means that you know,

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Speaker 9: with all the sort of people holding waiting for lower rates,

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Speaker 9: I still think there's a thinking that, you know, perhaps

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Speaker 9: a year from now rates will still be a little

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Speaker 9: bit lower, and those that can afford to buy are buying.

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Speaker 9: The challenge is supply. Supply. Supply continues to be a problem.

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Speaker 9: It's less of a problem in the Sun Belt states

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Speaker 9: where there's been a lot more development activity, but still,

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Speaker 9: you know, a year from now, I think housing prices

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Speaker 9: are going to be higher than they are today, and

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Speaker 9: so you have to sort of, you know, make the

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Speaker 9: decision of do you wait for rates to come down

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Speaker 9: at some point? If they will, it doesn't feel like

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Speaker 9: it with the incoming administration's economic policies.

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Speaker 1: So you mentioned the sun Belt and this idea that

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Speaker 1: it is the inventory that's available. People point to that

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Speaker 1: and say that they want to go move to somewhere

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Speaker 1: where perhaps housing is more affordable. But it's misleading though

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Speaker 1: when you look at supply increases as well, because we're

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Speaker 1: coming off a pretty low base. How often is it

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Speaker 1: that people go over and realize actually, the picture here

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Speaker 1: is very different from what they had anticipated, and if

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Speaker 1: you compared to say, five, ten years ago, it's completely different.

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Speaker 8: Yeah.

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Speaker 9: I think post pandemic, there's still an expectation by consumers

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Speaker 9: when they go from say the Northeast or California to

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Speaker 9: the sun Belt, that they're going to get a very

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Speaker 9: low price and the affordability is going to be dramatically improved. However,

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Speaker 9: that's been where a lot of the price appreciation has

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Speaker 9: been concentrated. You know, as people with work from home,

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Speaker 9: are you looking at other places to be situated. One

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Speaker 9: of the things that we're seeing in, for example, markets

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Speaker 9: like Florida's actually South Florida, is.

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Speaker 8: That the the.

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Speaker 9: Higher end threshold, meaning pricing north of say a million dollars.

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Speaker 9: Not to be cavalier, but the numbers is we're seeing

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Speaker 9: a tremendous uptick in activity. Perhaps that has more to

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Speaker 9: do with elevated financial markets than it does to more

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Speaker 9: you know, the factor of higher mortgage rates.

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Speaker 3: Jonathan, Given the fact that there are higher mortgage rates,

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Speaker 3: are there deals to be had on the price when

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Speaker 3: going out and buying home.

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Speaker 8: I think the I think the simple answer to that

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Speaker 8: is no.

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Speaker 9: But and that's because even in markets where inventory is

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Speaker 9: rising or there's parody with pre pandemic conditions, the demand

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Speaker 9: is still pretty strong that people have been kept on

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Speaker 9: hold for several years. So we're still seeing bidding wars.

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Speaker 9: We're still seeing a fairly tight market. We're just not

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Speaker 9: seeing a lot of discounting going on. And I think

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Speaker 9: I think that's what consumers, you know, we're hoping for.

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Speaker 3: And you expect an uptick in twenty twenty five. Where

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Speaker 3: exactly do you think we can see an uptick in

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Speaker 3: some of.

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Speaker 9: This, Well, you know, the basic math is where the

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Speaker 9: inventory is the tightest, that's where you're going to see the.

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Speaker 8: Most uptick in price.

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Speaker 9: You know, I would say that the biggest uptick in

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Speaker 9: price is not going to be in the sun Belt.

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Speaker 9: It's going to be to the north of that because

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Speaker 9: that's where not as much new product has.

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Speaker 8: Been built to come into the market.

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Speaker 9: That's one of the challenges in markets in the sun

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Speaker 9: Belt is that there's been more new construction as developers

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Speaker 9: are anticipating the boom coming off the pandemic, and.

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Speaker 8: It's a little it's been a little bit overdone.

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Speaker 1: Jonathan, we talked about single family homes, what about multi

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Speaker 1: family homes with the idea that mortgage rates will be

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Speaker 1: lower at the end of the year than where they start,

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Speaker 1: but not low by anyone's measure of what tends to

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Speaker 1: count as low. How does that affect the decision to

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Speaker 1: rent versus buy, and what does that mean for those

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Speaker 1: who do own or looking to buy multi family properties.

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Speaker 9: Well, one of the problems that we've had in the multifamily,

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Speaker 9: particularly in the condo market, is that housing prices, you know,

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Speaker 9: have risen just like single family quite a bit, and

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Speaker 9: affordability is being challenged. The problem is in the multifamily

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Speaker 9: there's more supply or excess supply, which means, you know,

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Speaker 9: potential softening or more potential softening. So from a single

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Speaker 9: family perspective, I think it's a little tougher to get

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Speaker 9: a deal in the condo maybe a little bit more,

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Speaker 9: but not in the high end market. You know, we're

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Speaker 9: talking about you know, more normal price property. I think

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Speaker 9: we'll see less price growth because supply is not as

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Speaker 9: excessive as.

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Speaker 8: As many consumers were thinking.

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Speaker 1: Okay and moving away from residential property into commercial property.

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Speaker 1: There's been a lot of discussion about an incoming Trump

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Speaker 1: administration being good news for real estate overall, but in

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Speaker 1: particular commercial real estate, especially with transactions picking up pace,

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Speaker 1: or at least conversations about transactions picking up pace. Are

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Speaker 1: there numbers that bear this out.

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Speaker 9: So the way to think about commercial, and the part

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Speaker 9: that I still am amazed is the narrative about commercial is, hey,

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Speaker 9: it's coming back. It's you know, work from home maybe

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Speaker 9: is going away because we are seeing you know, you know,

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Speaker 9: various firms talking you know, ending work from home or

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Speaker 9: severely reducing it. But really the conversation is almost entirely

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Speaker 9: about class A. You know, if you think of commercial

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Speaker 9: office as class A, B and C, A is doing

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Speaker 9: just fine with relatively high occupancy and relatively stable and

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Speaker 9: elevated leasing prices. It's a best in all the rest scenario.

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Speaker 9: Class B and C are still being punished by the

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Speaker 9: work from home phenomenon. And you know, many, many of

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Speaker 9: my colleagues, including myself, believe that work from home is here,

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00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:40,200
Speaker 9: you know, structurally for you know, indefinitely, and that's where

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00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:41,160
Speaker 9: the opportunities are.

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00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:44,119
Speaker 8: In fact, we're we're seeing a little bit more on

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Speaker 8: the B and C.

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Speaker 9: We're seeing more residential office to residential conversion activity, which

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00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,920
Speaker 9: is difficult in high interest rate environments, but we're still

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00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:57,440
Speaker 9: seeing it beginning to occur. So I think that's where

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00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:00,360
Speaker 9: the upside is in the class B and C. It's

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00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:04,119
Speaker 9: not going to be sort of leasing up at normalized prices.

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Speaker 8: One other point about that is a lot of.

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Speaker 9: The B and C the problem with vacancy high vacancy

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00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:18,040
Speaker 9: in those markets is that the landlord can't reduce their

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00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:21,680
Speaker 9: prices to market level. Yes, and that is a condition

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00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:27,040
Speaker 9: that has stayed since the pandemic era, and I don't

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Speaker 9: anticipate that changing in the near term.

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Speaker 1: All right, Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel, Thank you very

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Speaker 1: much and happy holidays to you.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Sevenants podcast, bringing you the best

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Speaker 2: in markets, economics, angiopolitics. You can watch the show live

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Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from six am to nine

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Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or

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Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business Amp.