1 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:14,320 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. 2 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:17,880 Speaker 1: I'm Joe Wisnal and I'm Tracy Halloway. Tracy, you've been 3 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:20,239 Speaker 1: on vacation for a couple of weeks. Welcome back. It's 4 00:00:20,520 --> 00:00:22,120 Speaker 1: nice to be back in the studio with you. Actually, 5 00:00:22,120 --> 00:00:23,880 Speaker 1: I think it's like our first time recording in the studio, 6 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:26,759 Speaker 1: like almost a month. Yeah, that's right, because I very 7 00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:31,480 Speaker 1: nicely got to record some episodes remotely. Um. I hesitated 8 00:00:31,520 --> 00:00:34,080 Speaker 1: to say this, but what did what did I miss? Well? 9 00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:37,000 Speaker 1: I mean, in a way, I think you Actually it 10 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:39,440 Speaker 1: was not a bad couple of weeks to sort of 11 00:00:39,880 --> 00:00:42,199 Speaker 1: to take off and tune. But there have been some 12 00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:46,319 Speaker 1: interesting developments in the market. You know, I would say 13 00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:49,720 Speaker 1: the first half of your vacation, we had this continuation 14 00:00:49,760 --> 00:00:53,159 Speaker 1: of this very powerful rebound off the bottom of the 15 00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 1: stock market that caught a lot of people by surprise. 16 00:00:56,200 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 1: And then the second half of your vacation, like over 17 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:02,120 Speaker 1: the last week or so, we given some of it back. Yeah. 18 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:05,200 Speaker 1: When I left, stocks were still going up, and now 19 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:06,840 Speaker 1: I've come back and it seems like we've done a 20 00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:09,679 Speaker 1: round trip to where they were when I left in 21 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:13,200 Speaker 1: early August. I think it was August eight, And it's 22 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:15,760 Speaker 1: kind of been a weird summer for stocks, hasn't it, 23 00:01:15,800 --> 00:01:18,039 Speaker 1: Because I think we had the best start to a 24 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:22,240 Speaker 1: third quarter since like the early nineteen thirties, and we 25 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:24,960 Speaker 1: even saw a bunch of the meme stocks doing really, 26 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:27,319 Speaker 1: really well. And then you know, I've come back, and 27 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:29,960 Speaker 1: it seems like it's just a blood bath across the board. 28 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 1: I know, while you were gone, like a MC became 29 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:36,720 Speaker 1: a story again at bed Beth and became a story again, 30 00:01:37,280 --> 00:01:40,360 Speaker 1: and Adam Newman got three fifty million from entries in 31 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 1: Horrowitz and I was like, oh my god, Q three two, 32 00:01:43,880 --> 00:01:49,080 Speaker 1: this is just like Q one one again or something again. 33 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 1: It's tricky too, because you know the macro situation, which 34 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:56,400 Speaker 1: we know is very elevated inflation and a FED determined 35 00:01:56,440 --> 00:01:59,000 Speaker 1: to stamp it out right, and so you know, one 36 00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:02,560 Speaker 1: of the oldest cliches in investing, it's like, don't fight 37 00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:04,880 Speaker 1: the Fed, right, Like, you hear that a million times, 38 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:07,600 Speaker 1: You hear it all the time, that that is a cliche. 39 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:09,639 Speaker 1: Remember you made fun of me the other day for 40 00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:12,919 Speaker 1: some cliche that wasn't actually cliche about the gritters anyway. 41 00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:15,079 Speaker 1: That actually is a cliche. So you have the FED 42 00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:17,280 Speaker 1: doing a lot of work to like stamp out inflation, 43 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:19,840 Speaker 1: and if you're believing they don't fight the FED thing, 44 00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:22,800 Speaker 1: it's like it's very bold to sort of be bullish 45 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:25,839 Speaker 1: at a time when the feed isn't tightening. But yeah, well, 46 00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:28,720 Speaker 1: I mean it feels like everything is sort of being 47 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:31,720 Speaker 1: driven by macro at the moment, but no one really 48 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:34,360 Speaker 1: knows what the macro picture is going to shake out 49 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:38,400 Speaker 1: as right, because either you have inflation continue, or you 50 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 1: get a big recession because the FED is raising grates 51 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:43,799 Speaker 1: and trying to cut demand and bring prices down that way, 52 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:46,480 Speaker 1: or you know, I think the nightmare scenario for a 53 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:48,400 Speaker 1: lot of people is that you get both those things. 54 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:52,440 Speaker 1: But it all seems quite like tail risky, if that 55 00:02:52,480 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 1: makes sense. Well, you mentioned the nightmare scenario, and I 56 00:02:55,480 --> 00:02:57,960 Speaker 1: think that really is a good lead in to our 57 00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:02,880 Speaker 1: episode today because sent event has been extremely negative and 58 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:06,440 Speaker 1: so if you look at various surveys of professional fund 59 00:03:06,440 --> 00:03:11,200 Speaker 1: managers individual investors, you know, Q two this summer maynage 60 00:03:11,200 --> 00:03:16,120 Speaker 1: you an extremely pessimistic overall, which might some of the positioning. 61 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 1: The Bank of America has a fund managers survey they 62 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:22,040 Speaker 1: I think at the last survey sentiment was like just 63 00:03:22,120 --> 00:03:25,640 Speaker 1: a little bit better than apocalyptic, was how they characterized it. Well, 64 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:28,280 Speaker 1: it was worse than the two tho financial crisis, I 65 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:30,760 Speaker 1: know that for sure. And that was even as stocks 66 00:03:30,840 --> 00:03:33,640 Speaker 1: were recovering, and that's why people were calling this, you know, 67 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 1: the most hated rally of all time and things like this, 68 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:38,920 Speaker 1: and so that sort of like gets into our our 69 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:41,160 Speaker 1: conversation today, which is like what's going on with the 70 00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:43,320 Speaker 1: stock market and how do you like think about how 71 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:46,400 Speaker 1: investors are positioned. What are the charts saying, what are 72 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 1: the surveys saying, and yeah, like what is the overall positioning. 73 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:52,920 Speaker 1: So it should be a good episode for sort of 74 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:55,240 Speaker 1: thinking about like what we've seen in the stock market 75 00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 1: really over the last several weeks and months. Yeah, I'm 76 00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:00,920 Speaker 1: looking forward to Okay, I am so scited about our guests, 77 00:04:01,320 --> 00:04:03,560 Speaker 1: Like this is like a guest that I've been wanting, 78 00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 1: literally wanting to speak to for literally years. We've never 79 00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:10,920 Speaker 1: been able to quite make it happen with scheduling just 80 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 1: because you know, it's it's hard. Finally we're going to 81 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 1: have her on. I'm so excited we're going to be 82 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:20,520 Speaker 1: speaking to Helene Meisler. She is a columnist for Real Money, 83 00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:25,520 Speaker 1: but also a longtime veteran of markets, having traded at Cowen, 84 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:28,960 Speaker 1: having traded Goldman Sacks on the equity trading desk, doing 85 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:33,080 Speaker 1: technical analysis, managing money for Cargill. One of my absolute 86 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:36,359 Speaker 1: favorite people to follow on Twitter for all things related 87 00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:38,960 Speaker 1: to stock market, but also just generally just one of 88 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:41,640 Speaker 1: my favorite people and someone I've wanted to hear from 89 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 1: for a long time and we'll get right into it, 90 00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 1: and someone who has a very distinct way of analyzing 91 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:51,960 Speaker 1: the market. So Helene Meisler, thank you so much for 92 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:55,720 Speaker 1: coming on Odd Lots. Oh my gosh, what an introduction, Joe, 93 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:58,760 Speaker 1: thank you. Um, I just want to say I'm going 94 00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:00,640 Speaker 1: to tell you guys that I have been listening to 95 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:03,920 Speaker 1: your podcast forever and so when you asked me to 96 00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:06,440 Speaker 1: be on the podcast, I felt like when you have 97 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 1: a favorite TV show and have invited you on as 98 00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:13,560 Speaker 1: a guest. So thank you, Thank you, Heley, And that's 99 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:17,160 Speaker 1: very nice. So that's that is extremely kind. There are 100 00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 1: many reasons I enjoy following your work and following your 101 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:24,640 Speaker 1: analysis and following your sort of assessment of the stock 102 00:05:24,720 --> 00:05:27,880 Speaker 1: market and individual stocks at a given time. But I think, like, 103 00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:32,599 Speaker 1: there's something you do that nobody else I know, or 104 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:35,920 Speaker 1: at least that I follow. It does in looking at 105 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:39,240 Speaker 1: the market, you chart by hand, like we all like 106 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:42,080 Speaker 1: we look, we pull up a Bloomberg terminal chart and 107 00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 1: we like drag a line with a mouse click, et cetera. 108 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 1: You you like keep it organic, you keep it real 109 00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:51,200 Speaker 1: like you chart by You actually draw out charts on paper. 110 00:05:51,200 --> 00:05:52,640 Speaker 1: Can you talk to us a little bit about what 111 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:55,760 Speaker 1: that is? Like, what do you do? What that is? Well, 112 00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:58,200 Speaker 1: let's start. I just put a pencil to the paper 113 00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 1: every day. It's not it's you know, and it's a 114 00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:03,920 Speaker 1: high low closed chart. I and I do volume. When 115 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:06,800 Speaker 1: I got into the business, which was actually forty years 116 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:09,960 Speaker 1: ago this year, we didn't have computers on every desk. 117 00:06:10,760 --> 00:06:14,440 Speaker 1: We didn't have PCs. You had a quote tron which 118 00:06:14,440 --> 00:06:17,239 Speaker 1: gave you quotes. It didn't even give you news. News 119 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:21,800 Speaker 1: just scrolled across like headlines. If you wanted to look 120 00:06:21,839 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 1: at the charts on the market, you had to post 121 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:26,720 Speaker 1: them by hand. I mean pretty much what everyone did. 122 00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:29,840 Speaker 1: And then slow and then you had some services that 123 00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:33,480 Speaker 1: you could buy where you got paper charts like O'Neill, 124 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:37,159 Speaker 1: you know, of ib D fame, did these daily charts 125 00:06:37,240 --> 00:06:39,120 Speaker 1: and you'd get them in a book once a week. 126 00:06:39,160 --> 00:06:41,159 Speaker 1: And then there were some weekly charts you could get, 127 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 1: but that was the only way to do it back then. 128 00:06:43,960 --> 00:06:48,880 Speaker 1: And then slowly they started to computerize charts on a 129 00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:52,400 Speaker 1: on a screen and um, and then we had computers, 130 00:06:52,440 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 1: and you know, then everybody could have a PC on 131 00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:58,520 Speaker 1: their desk. And so I I will tell you the 132 00:06:58,560 --> 00:07:02,560 Speaker 1: story that when I started working with my mentor in 133 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:05,320 Speaker 1: this in technical analysis, just in Nemis, he had this 134 00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:08,400 Speaker 1: huge pile of charts, handed it to me, and the 135 00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:11,680 Speaker 1: chart scales are semi logarithmic, so it takes a little 136 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:14,400 Speaker 1: while to get used to them. And he gave me 137 00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:16,520 Speaker 1: one little piece of paper that showed me what the 138 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 1: scales were and told me to chart them. And he 139 00:07:19,160 --> 00:07:22,000 Speaker 1: left the office and I was still at the office 140 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:24,400 Speaker 1: at eight o'clock at night, because you know, you can't 141 00:07:24,400 --> 00:07:27,360 Speaker 1: start charting until the market settles, and that was like 142 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:31,920 Speaker 1: at four twenty anyway, So I I'm charting and I'm 143 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:35,400 Speaker 1: thinking this is ridiculous. You know, I'm twenty seven years old, 144 00:07:35,440 --> 00:07:39,720 Speaker 1: twenty three, and I'm thinking, oh my god, he's so old, 145 00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 1: and he was probably fifty five, and I'm thinking, he 146 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 1: is so old, there has to be a way to 147 00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:48,520 Speaker 1: computerize this. So the next morning, I tell him there 148 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:51,240 Speaker 1: has to be a way to computerize this, and he 149 00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:54,320 Speaker 1: says to me, there is a certain feeling you get 150 00:07:54,480 --> 00:07:57,680 Speaker 1: from putting the pencil to the paper, also from sharpening 151 00:07:57,720 --> 00:08:02,080 Speaker 1: the pencils, imagined only three year old me. I I rolled, 152 00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:04,680 Speaker 1: I did the whole deal, and I said, oh my god, 153 00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:07,640 Speaker 1: I can't believe this. Can we cycle? Can we make 154 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:12,040 Speaker 1: this a three hour episode? Here like this anyway? Sorry? 155 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:18,280 Speaker 1: Keep going. I cycle cycle about ten or twelve years later, 156 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:26,600 Speaker 1: thirteen maybe, and it's I'm still charting by hand, and um, 157 00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:31,080 Speaker 1: my husband gets transferred overseas to Singapore, and so I 158 00:08:31,080 --> 00:08:33,200 Speaker 1: pack up myself and I go. I quit my job. 159 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:35,719 Speaker 1: And I said, you know what I've got. I mean, 160 00:08:35,720 --> 00:08:38,640 Speaker 1: we only had dial up internet, but I know that 161 00:08:38,679 --> 00:08:40,680 Speaker 1: there are charts sites and I can get charts on 162 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 1: I'm going to give this up. And all I was 163 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:44,840 Speaker 1: gonna do is I was going to sit at home 164 00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:46,720 Speaker 1: in trade. I mean, you know, I had no job, 165 00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:52,200 Speaker 1: and um, one month. It took me one month before 166 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:54,000 Speaker 1: I felt like I didn't know what the market was 167 00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:57,960 Speaker 1: doing every day, and so I went back and I 168 00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:01,360 Speaker 1: actually posted on every single chart the month I missed 169 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:04,520 Speaker 1: and I've not given it up since. And and of 170 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:06,800 Speaker 1: course the whole time I'm doing it, I'm thinking, oh God, 171 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:09,280 Speaker 1: damn it. Justin was right. This is when Tracy should do. 172 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:13,120 Speaker 1: Have to hurt two weeks off, just like justar chart 173 00:09:13,520 --> 00:09:16,240 Speaker 1: what the market has done and go back, look, pull 174 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:18,600 Speaker 1: up the clothes, and just just do it by hand 175 00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:21,240 Speaker 1: to really internalize what you missed. I was gonna say, 176 00:09:21,280 --> 00:09:23,200 Speaker 1: you know why it's good to do that is to 177 00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:24,960 Speaker 1: sort of take a set of data for a month 178 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:28,600 Speaker 1: or two and just literally chart one stock. Is because 179 00:09:29,360 --> 00:09:31,560 Speaker 1: after you do let's say a week, you take a 180 00:09:31,600 --> 00:09:33,680 Speaker 1: look and you say to yourself, what do I think 181 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:35,560 Speaker 1: this stock is going to do now? And then you 182 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:39,440 Speaker 1: can see immediately if you're right on that note, what 183 00:09:39,679 --> 00:09:42,520 Speaker 1: is technical analysis and what's the value of it? Because 184 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:46,000 Speaker 1: I know it has it has its critics, people who say, 185 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:49,640 Speaker 1: you know, you're just drawing lines on a chart, sometimes 186 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:52,360 Speaker 1: by hand, as you just described, and then it has 187 00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:54,800 Speaker 1: a lot of fans as well, and you know, there's 188 00:09:54,800 --> 00:09:57,600 Speaker 1: an broader argument that if the market is really about 189 00:09:57,640 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 1: momentum and sentiment, then something like technical analysis can be 190 00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:03,679 Speaker 1: very very useful. So how would you describe it? And 191 00:10:03,920 --> 00:10:06,680 Speaker 1: I guess what was the value proposition? You know, when 192 00:10:06,679 --> 00:10:10,680 Speaker 1: you were doing t a technical analysis, uh in the 193 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:14,920 Speaker 1: seventies and eighties, like what was the elevator pitch at 194 00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:17,400 Speaker 1: some of these banks. Okay, first of all, I'm not 195 00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:19,960 Speaker 1: that old. I know I'm old. I wasn't around in 196 00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:24,079 Speaker 1: the seventies. I started in eighty two. But um, let 197 00:10:24,080 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 1: me just say that I think what's evolved over the years. 198 00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:30,720 Speaker 1: Back back when I first started, you didn't have what 199 00:10:30,800 --> 00:10:35,320 Speaker 1: I called today chart readers, because so many people, you know, 200 00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:37,440 Speaker 1: think of I've just told you how hard it was 201 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 1: to get a chart, and so you didn't have access 202 00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:44,559 Speaker 1: to charts everywhere. They just weren't available. You literally had 203 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 1: to buy them, and so you really had to be 204 00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:50,080 Speaker 1: into charts to do this. So you didn't have a 205 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:52,280 Speaker 1: bunch of people who even understood what a head and 206 00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:55,360 Speaker 1: shoulders pattern was or had to draw a line or 207 00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:59,840 Speaker 1: anything like that. And so that that has changed drastically 208 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:02,160 Speaker 1: now with the fact that anybody can pull up a 209 00:11:02,240 --> 00:11:06,840 Speaker 1: chart on a computer, and so the analysis that we 210 00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:11,360 Speaker 1: did when I first got into the business was what 211 00:11:11,400 --> 00:11:15,080 Speaker 1: I call analysis, not chart reading. How now, what's the 212 00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:19,600 Speaker 1: difference the differences is for me, I start with the 213 00:11:19,679 --> 00:11:23,719 Speaker 1: statistics and indicators on the market. I don't start with 214 00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:27,079 Speaker 1: what the charts are doing, because good charts turn bad 215 00:11:27,160 --> 00:11:30,959 Speaker 1: and bad charts turn good. I mean, you just said, Tracy, 216 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:33,480 Speaker 1: you just said you left a vacation and the market 217 00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:35,520 Speaker 1: was up near the highs. You come back and everything 218 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:38,440 Speaker 1: sort of plopped. I mean, so good charts can turn 219 00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:41,240 Speaker 1: bad and bad charts can turn good. So I start 220 00:11:41,480 --> 00:11:44,800 Speaker 1: with indicators, and that's what I analyze. How's the breath 221 00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:47,240 Speaker 1: of the market doing, or what are the what are 222 00:11:47,240 --> 00:11:50,880 Speaker 1: the sentiment indicators, what's the momentum? So if you start 223 00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:56,360 Speaker 1: with breath just recently, we breath was hanging in there 224 00:11:56,400 --> 00:12:01,200 Speaker 1: really well up until about ten days ago. Basically not 225 00:12:01,400 --> 00:12:03,600 Speaker 1: just whether the line is going up, but like how 226 00:12:03,640 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 1: many stocks within the index are performing well at any 227 00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:09,280 Speaker 1: given time, right you're looking for You don't want a 228 00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:14,480 Speaker 1: narrow group of stocks taking the market up. You want 229 00:12:14,520 --> 00:12:17,800 Speaker 1: a lot of participation. So what's the breadth of the market? 230 00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:21,600 Speaker 1: And I use the advanced decline line as as a guide, 231 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 1: but I also use I used the McClellan in summation index. 232 00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:26,440 Speaker 1: I don't want to get to wonky on you, but 233 00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:29,080 Speaker 1: that's sort of like a third derivative of the advanced 234 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:31,880 Speaker 1: decline line, so it moves much slower. It doesn't it 235 00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:34,880 Speaker 1: takes a lot more to turn it, so you when 236 00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:37,280 Speaker 1: you get a turn, it tends not to be false. 237 00:12:37,640 --> 00:12:40,959 Speaker 1: And I also use the number of stocks making new 238 00:12:41,040 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 1: highs and the number of stocks making new loads. So 239 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:47,880 Speaker 1: if you go back to Tracy's comment back in late July, 240 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:53,480 Speaker 1: NASDAC had a smidge over a hundred stocks making new highs. 241 00:12:53,520 --> 00:12:55,679 Speaker 1: But by I don't know, about a week and a 242 00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:58,319 Speaker 1: half ago, when when NASAC kept going up, what another 243 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:01,120 Speaker 1: five percent or something like that, you could hardly even 244 00:13:01,160 --> 00:13:04,480 Speaker 1: get to eighty new highs. So you were already starting 245 00:13:04,520 --> 00:13:07,920 Speaker 1: to see the waning. So you didn't even have to 246 00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:11,200 Speaker 1: look at charts to see that fewer and fewer stocks 247 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:14,920 Speaker 1: were participating. So that to me is the analysis on 248 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:19,959 Speaker 1: the indicators, and and that should eventually show itself up 249 00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:22,199 Speaker 1: in the charts. And so now if you go back 250 00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:23,400 Speaker 1: and you take a look at a lot of the 251 00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:26,120 Speaker 1: charts from the last few weeks, you'll see so many 252 00:13:26,120 --> 00:13:29,400 Speaker 1: of them peeked out by early August, and so the 253 00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:31,200 Speaker 1: last couple of weeks were just sort of a lot 254 00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:33,560 Speaker 1: of churning and going back and forth and not really 255 00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:52,839 Speaker 1: doing anything. So it sounds like to me that like 256 00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:56,640 Speaker 1: just naively pulling up a chart, like if you pull 257 00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:59,280 Speaker 1: up a nas deck, a NAZ deck shart or an 258 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:02,800 Speaker 1: SNP five hundred chart, you're not going to at least 259 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:06,400 Speaker 1: it sounds like, in your view, get too far by 260 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:09,840 Speaker 1: just starting with the chart, drawing some lines and say, oh, 261 00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:12,760 Speaker 1: it looks like it's going up or it's running into 262 00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:17,319 Speaker 1: resistance here, etcetera. What it sounds like is that the 263 00:14:17,440 --> 00:14:21,360 Speaker 1: chart is sort of the capstone or the final step. 264 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 1: I'm looking at these sort of like deeper trends happening 265 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:29,040 Speaker 1: in the market related to sentiment and breadth, etcetera, and 266 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:30,840 Speaker 1: so you really have to you know, like the chart 267 00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:33,760 Speaker 1: is like the sort of like the finishing touch of 268 00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:35,920 Speaker 1: like deeper analysis that you really have to do to 269 00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:39,360 Speaker 1: understand the market. For me, yeah, I mean, if I'll 270 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:43,120 Speaker 1: give you the fundamental equivalent when Apple reports earnings and 271 00:14:43,160 --> 00:14:45,320 Speaker 1: everybody is looking for five dollars and they come in 272 00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:48,960 Speaker 1: at five oh three, Yeah, they beat right, But then 273 00:14:49,000 --> 00:14:51,440 Speaker 1: if you start breaking it down, revenues were a little 274 00:14:51,520 --> 00:14:53,600 Speaker 1: like they did it on share buy back, they did 275 00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:56,200 Speaker 1: it on expenses, they didn't. You start breaking that down, 276 00:14:56,520 --> 00:15:00,120 Speaker 1: and maybe that five oh three wasn't so great. And 277 00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:01,920 Speaker 1: all I'm looking at is the S and P is 278 00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:04,880 Speaker 1: up thirty dollars today, and I'm looking at the market 279 00:15:04,920 --> 00:15:08,040 Speaker 1: internals and going, ah, they don't look so great. So 280 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:10,440 Speaker 1: it's the same equivalent, so to Tracy, to go back 281 00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:13,960 Speaker 1: to your elevator pitch, it's not much different than fundamental 282 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:18,280 Speaker 1: anal analysts who are looking at earnings and breaking it down. 283 00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:21,640 Speaker 1: They're looking at growth rates, they're looking at you know, 284 00:15:21,720 --> 00:15:24,280 Speaker 1: they're looking at all the expense ratio, and they're they're 285 00:15:24,280 --> 00:15:26,360 Speaker 1: looking at all the same things I'm looking at, only 286 00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:29,360 Speaker 1: I'm looking at it from what the market actually is 287 00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:32,840 Speaker 1: doing and therefore what individual stocks are doing to make 288 00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:35,800 Speaker 1: up the index. That's a good way of describing it. 289 00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:39,120 Speaker 1: Further to this point, the indicators that you look at, 290 00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:43,920 Speaker 1: do you have different favorite indicators at any one point 291 00:15:43,920 --> 00:15:47,640 Speaker 1: in time depending on like the overall health of the 292 00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:50,960 Speaker 1: market or maybe where the economy is, like, for instance, 293 00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:54,560 Speaker 1: does breadth become more important to you depending on certain 294 00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:59,120 Speaker 1: market backdrops or economic fundamentals and things like that. Good question. 295 00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:02,480 Speaker 1: That is a good question, estan. Um No, So let 296 00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:05,880 Speaker 1: me take you back a little bit to um Joe. 297 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:09,640 Speaker 1: You mentioned that the meme stocks were coming back in 298 00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:13,600 Speaker 1: vogue just recently, just like the first quarter of twenty one. 299 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:18,200 Speaker 1: Everybody dates the bear market to the peak in November 300 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:21,080 Speaker 1: for NASDAC and the peak in January for the SMP. 301 00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:23,920 Speaker 1: I think the bear market actually started in the first 302 00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:29,440 Speaker 1: quarter because if you go back, Okay, there you go, 303 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:34,240 Speaker 1: if you go back, that was when you had peak everything, 304 00:16:34,440 --> 00:16:38,000 Speaker 1: peaks speculation. You had the most bulls and bear um, sorry, 305 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:40,280 Speaker 1: the most bulls and fewers bears in the market. You 306 00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:43,720 Speaker 1: had over seven hundred stocks making new highs on NASDAC. 307 00:16:43,920 --> 00:16:48,000 Speaker 1: That's unheard of. Um. You had the biotechs were running, 308 00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 1: the meme stocks were running. You had oh, peaks backs, 309 00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:54,600 Speaker 1: let's not forget about peaks, facts and all of that. 310 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 1: And then you had what should be what was a 311 00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:02,560 Speaker 1: normal correction into the spring of a big emotional high. 312 00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:06,919 Speaker 1: But after that you started to get fewer and fewer 313 00:17:06,960 --> 00:17:10,720 Speaker 1: stocks making new highs. On every subsequent rally. You started 314 00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:13,720 Speaker 1: to get much narrowing breath. You know, you started to 315 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:16,200 Speaker 1: get to the point where there were what ten Nasdack 316 00:17:16,280 --> 00:17:21,280 Speaker 1: stocks that were influencing the entire market. Without them, we 317 00:17:21,320 --> 00:17:25,040 Speaker 1: would have peaked well earlier than November in NASDAC. And 318 00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 1: if you go back and you look at all these charts, 319 00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:28,840 Speaker 1: most of them never made new high skin, or if 320 00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:30,640 Speaker 1: they did, they sort of got up there and failed. 321 00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:34,199 Speaker 1: So to me that we are eighteen months into a 322 00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:38,360 Speaker 1: bear market. Now that's what to me the internals can 323 00:17:38,359 --> 00:17:41,200 Speaker 1: tell you. And and so then if I come back 324 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:45,120 Speaker 1: and I and I say to you, everybody talks about 325 00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:48,119 Speaker 1: the June low this year, but I'd like to point 326 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:51,720 Speaker 1: out that you had the peak number of stocks making 327 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:57,000 Speaker 1: new lows on NASDAC at JOSHIV eighteen hundred in January, 328 00:17:57,920 --> 00:18:00,720 Speaker 1: and when you came down in May you had that 329 00:18:00,800 --> 00:18:03,840 Speaker 1: exact same number, which your SEVO you had that exact 330 00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:06,280 Speaker 1: same number. And then when you came down in June 331 00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:10,320 Speaker 1: you only had a thousand or maybe eleven hundred. So 332 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:13,720 Speaker 1: each time we came down, it was the inverse of 333 00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:17,199 Speaker 1: what you kept getting in one, which was fewer and 334 00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:20,360 Speaker 1: fewer stocks were participating. On the upside, what you were 335 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:23,720 Speaker 1: getting with fewer and fewer stocks were participating on the downside. 336 00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:26,919 Speaker 1: You mentioned, you know, you go back to the beginning 337 00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:30,080 Speaker 1: of one and you mentioned, you know, pique everything. How 338 00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:34,840 Speaker 1: do you use in your analysis the surveys? And there 339 00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:38,720 Speaker 1: are various surveys. There's a a I I. I think 340 00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:41,800 Speaker 1: it's like an individual investors survey and they just say like, 341 00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:43,919 Speaker 1: are you bullish or bearish? And I guess people respond. 342 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:46,520 Speaker 1: And then there's like the Bank of America a monthly 343 00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:49,840 Speaker 1: fund manager survey Tracy and I mentioned that in the intro, 344 00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:51,840 Speaker 1: they say like, how are you feeling? Are your bullish? 345 00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:53,960 Speaker 1: Are you bearish? What is your what do you what 346 00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:57,640 Speaker 1: is your high conviction trade, what are your cash levels? Etcetera. 347 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:00,920 Speaker 1: How do you think about the value of these surveys 348 00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:03,639 Speaker 1: of just going out and asking people, do you like stocks? 349 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:07,400 Speaker 1: Share enough to me? The gold star in sentiment surveys 350 00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:12,360 Speaker 1: is the investors Intelligence, which no one ever talks about anymore, 351 00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:17,800 Speaker 1: but it's been around since the sixties and it is 352 00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:20,720 Speaker 1: compiled of it's either a hundred or hundred and twenty 353 00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:24,440 Speaker 1: I can't remember newsletter writers. So you have to have 354 00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:28,680 Speaker 1: somebody is actually paying for your advice. That's number one 355 00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:32,240 Speaker 1: so it's not just Willie Nilly. I feel like Mark 356 00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:34,920 Speaker 1: is going up, market is going down. Somebody is actually 357 00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:38,159 Speaker 1: doing analysis and sending out a newsletter that somebody is 358 00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:42,200 Speaker 1: paying for. And and so this outfit compiles each week 359 00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:44,280 Speaker 1: how many of them are bullish, how many of them 360 00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:48,000 Speaker 1: are bearished, But they also take into account how many 361 00:19:48,040 --> 00:19:51,160 Speaker 1: of them are looking for a correction, and those are 362 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:55,040 Speaker 1: primarily bullish, but they're just looking for a short term pullback, 363 00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:58,920 Speaker 1: and so you can really quantify it. It is very 364 00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:02,160 Speaker 1: slow moving. It doesn't jump around like the aii day 365 00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:04,960 Speaker 1: traders do. And I don't know about the Bank America 366 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:09,040 Speaker 1: survey because obviously that's proprietary to them, but I I 367 00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:12,480 Speaker 1: or investorous intelligence, like I said, has been around. It's 368 00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:15,080 Speaker 1: got a very long history. I find that to be 369 00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:18,280 Speaker 1: the gold star of surveys. And and if we want 370 00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:22,160 Speaker 1: to take a look at that, back in June, there 371 00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:31,280 Speaker 1: were bulls and nearly fifty or bears. That's bear market 372 00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:33,919 Speaker 1: low kind of stuff. I mean, you just don't You 373 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:37,760 Speaker 1: just don't see those kinds of numbers often. And now 374 00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:40,959 Speaker 1: what we got as of last week was you've got 375 00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:47,240 Speaker 1: bulls and bears, so they're not out of control. But 376 00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:51,359 Speaker 1: they certainly have flipped. Um, I don't know what this 377 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:54,320 Speaker 1: week's numbers will be. I assume that when they come 378 00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:57,000 Speaker 1: out tomorrow they'll they'll have come back. The bulls have 379 00:20:57,040 --> 00:20:59,080 Speaker 1: come down and the bears have come up because last 380 00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:03,120 Speaker 1: week was really Yeah, so I shouldn't mentioned We should 381 00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:07,679 Speaker 1: just mention that we're recording this on Tuesday, auguste. And 382 00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:09,880 Speaker 1: so there's a lot happening this week with Jackson Hole 383 00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:13,320 Speaker 1: and the potential for sentiment to maybe maybe change a 384 00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:17,200 Speaker 1: little bit. Right, So now to go back to AII, 385 00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:19,720 Speaker 1: because I have a pet peeve that if I could 386 00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:24,919 Speaker 1: use this platform to scream from the hills for um, 387 00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:30,000 Speaker 1: everybody who was who uses a AII, okay, they only 388 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:32,600 Speaker 1: seem to use it to give you their bullish case. 389 00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:37,000 Speaker 1: They never once tell you when bulls. When bulls are over. 390 00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:43,720 Speaker 1: In the first quarter, you didn't hear anything about AII. 391 00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:48,040 Speaker 1: But when bulls got down to and May, oh, everybody 392 00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:51,600 Speaker 1: was talking sentiment. You know, first of all, it's it's 393 00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:55,240 Speaker 1: really mostly a crap survey because how many people do 394 00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:59,120 Speaker 1: you know that are members of a AI And if 395 00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:01,800 Speaker 1: they are, they're old than me and I'm sixty one, 396 00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:05,480 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, and and you don't have the 397 00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:10,000 Speaker 1: same people surveyed every single week, and you know, so 398 00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:12,399 Speaker 1: it's sort of a crapshoot. I'll give you one of 399 00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:15,159 Speaker 1: the survey that I think is is quite good, and 400 00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:20,200 Speaker 1: that is the National Association of Active Investment Managers and 401 00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:25,640 Speaker 1: an a ai M name, and they survey their members 402 00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:29,520 Speaker 1: every single week and ask them what their exposure to 403 00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:32,800 Speaker 1: the market is. They survey them on Wednesday morning, the 404 00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:36,600 Speaker 1: results come out on Thursday morning, so they're very fresh, 405 00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:40,400 Speaker 1: and I have found that to be an incredibly useful survey. 406 00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:44,240 Speaker 1: So tell us more about what you're seeing. I guess 407 00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:48,760 Speaker 1: over the summer, so you know, you talked about sentiment 408 00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:53,800 Speaker 1: getting like quite low in June. We've also seen explanations 409 00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:55,600 Speaker 1: for some of the market moves, Lots of people saying 410 00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:58,080 Speaker 1: that the rally was just driven by short covering and 411 00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:01,240 Speaker 1: things like that. What did you see over that time period, 412 00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:04,520 Speaker 1: like how much of it was genuine sentiment versus technical 413 00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:10,800 Speaker 1: shifts such as covering short positions. Well, Bob Prector, famous 414 00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:14,720 Speaker 1: technical technician, once said, all rallies start with short covering, 415 00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:18,719 Speaker 1: and that's true. The question is is whether or not 416 00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:22,399 Speaker 1: after the short covering is finished, you get real buying. 417 00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:26,960 Speaker 1: I suppose that what you could say is that the 418 00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:29,680 Speaker 1: number of stocks making new highs having peaked in late 419 00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:33,520 Speaker 1: July early August probably tells you that the whatever buying 420 00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:37,320 Speaker 1: you had petered out by then, and anything that was 421 00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:40,640 Speaker 1: left over was just, you know, if you will, the dregs. 422 00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:45,160 Speaker 1: So I think sentiment was incredibly bearish. But I think 423 00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:49,480 Speaker 1: it was incredibly bearish in May, and I think we 424 00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:52,560 Speaker 1: got very oversold in May. And if you go back 425 00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:57,760 Speaker 1: to that whole May June period, you were oversold. You 426 00:23:57,840 --> 00:23:59,520 Speaker 1: had a little rally in late May, and then you 427 00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:03,000 Speaker 1: came down again. But again, as I said, you had 428 00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:06,800 Speaker 1: almost eighteen hundred stocks on NASDAC making new loads in May, 429 00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:09,320 Speaker 1: but by the time you came down in June, you 430 00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:11,800 Speaker 1: had a little over a thousands, So that's already a 431 00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:15,000 Speaker 1: contraction to new loads, and sentiment was only getting worse. 432 00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:19,040 Speaker 1: And then you have I talked earlier about the McClelland 433 00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:23,640 Speaker 1: summation index, which is a slow moving breath indicator. I'll 434 00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:26,439 Speaker 1: just use it at that that was actually making a 435 00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:30,920 Speaker 1: higher low and starting to turn up. So you were 436 00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:34,240 Speaker 1: already starting to get people. There were people buying stocks 437 00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:36,960 Speaker 1: in May I don't know who they were, but I 438 00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:39,399 Speaker 1: know that people were or at least they were no 439 00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:42,439 Speaker 1: longer selling them. And you know, you can see it 440 00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:44,440 Speaker 1: now if you go back to the charts, go take 441 00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:47,879 Speaker 1: a look at all those arc names. They weren't making 442 00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:50,880 Speaker 1: new loads. Biotech that stopped making new loads, a lot 443 00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:53,720 Speaker 1: of the software stocks that stopped making new loads. And 444 00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:57,520 Speaker 1: and so was that shorts covering I I can't say, 445 00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:02,600 Speaker 1: but some by he had decided it was enough. And 446 00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:04,760 Speaker 1: I think that's how you sort of got that June 447 00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:07,520 Speaker 1: low was over a period. Now, I will go back 448 00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:10,440 Speaker 1: to one other thing is that everybody was talking about, 449 00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:15,680 Speaker 1: but we haven't seen capitulation that. Lets let's talk about 450 00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:19,439 Speaker 1: the cues for a minute. In one, you could probably 451 00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:21,760 Speaker 1: count on one hand the number of times the Cues 452 00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:24,600 Speaker 1: traded over a hundred million shares. This is the for 453 00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:29,320 Speaker 1: the listeners, this is the q q Q. Yeah. And 454 00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:33,040 Speaker 1: in two you could probably count on one hand up 455 00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:36,920 Speaker 1: until May the number of times the Cues didn't trade 456 00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:41,000 Speaker 1: over a hundred million shares. So everybody is looking for 457 00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:45,399 Speaker 1: that one day when the capitulation had taken place. Over months, 458 00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:49,600 Speaker 1: you know, it was just a hundred million shairs every 459 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:54,639 Speaker 1: single day you were trading these incredible high numbers of cues. 460 00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:57,720 Speaker 1: I mean go back, or or if you go back 461 00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:00,000 Speaker 1: and you look at Apple, I mean, take a look 462 00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:02,080 Speaker 1: at Apple, and all of a sudden, Apple was trading 463 00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:04,560 Speaker 1: millions and millions and millions and millions more shares than 464 00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:07,639 Speaker 1: it had ever traded. So there were people, there was 465 00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:10,040 Speaker 1: plenty of selling. It just didn't happen, Oh my god, 466 00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:12,720 Speaker 1: in one day. Right. People have this fantasy there's gonna 467 00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:14,639 Speaker 1: be like one day, like a black Monday or something 468 00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:17,760 Speaker 1: at all washes out. But really, if you look over 469 00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:22,880 Speaker 1: a period of time, you see very intense, sustained, widespread pessimism. 470 00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:25,480 Speaker 1: I want to ask you, though, you know, one of 471 00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:29,679 Speaker 1: the advantages that you must have at this point is 472 00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:33,600 Speaker 1: just obviously your experience and having been watching markets, having 473 00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:37,040 Speaker 1: been watching these indicators and volume indicators and surveys and 474 00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:41,560 Speaker 1: charts for decades. Now, can you talk about a are 475 00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:45,040 Speaker 1: there any like periods that you think like, this feels familiar, 476 00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:47,639 Speaker 1: this feels like another time, like you feel it and 477 00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,440 Speaker 1: sort of like and be like, do you keep your 478 00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:53,159 Speaker 1: all year old charts such that you could sort of 479 00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:56,800 Speaker 1: go back and look at a comparable period to see 480 00:26:56,800 --> 00:27:01,640 Speaker 1: like how similar some certain timeframe was. That's a great question. 481 00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:04,280 Speaker 1: So I'm going to start by telling you I don't 482 00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:09,080 Speaker 1: believe in analogs, but I do believe history repeats and 483 00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:12,040 Speaker 1: chart patterns repeat. Because if you didn't believe truck patterns repeat, 484 00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:15,640 Speaker 1: why you're looking at charts? But you know all those analogs, 485 00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:18,440 Speaker 1: why do they always end up in the nine crash? 486 00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:24,120 Speaker 1: I've it's we're always one week away according to these 487 00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:27,440 Speaker 1: overlaid charts of like this is exactly like the lead 488 00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:32,640 Speaker 1: of it's. To me, it's just amazing. And and yeah, 489 00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:36,200 Speaker 1: I lived through the seven crash, okay, And I will 490 00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:40,760 Speaker 1: tell you that the only people who tell you, oh, 491 00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:43,160 Speaker 1: look how easy it was to buy are the people 492 00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:46,679 Speaker 1: who were looking at charts and we didn't live through it, 493 00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:49,560 Speaker 1: because I got news for you. It was probably to me, 494 00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:52,000 Speaker 1: it was one of the scariest periods in the market 495 00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:55,880 Speaker 1: I've ever seen, you know, I mean, everyone gets crazy now, 496 00:27:55,960 --> 00:28:01,120 Speaker 1: but the stock market was down in one day, um 497 00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:03,160 Speaker 1: and and it had come on the heels of three 498 00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:06,520 Speaker 1: incredibly bad days prior to that, and and then when 499 00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:10,520 Speaker 1: you opened down again on Tuesday morning. Just so listeners 500 00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:13,679 Speaker 1: know what happened that Tuesday morning, when we still had 501 00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:17,359 Speaker 1: a specialist system in place. Twenty eight of the thirty 502 00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:19,919 Speaker 1: Dow stocks were halted for trading at I don't know, 503 00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:23,480 Speaker 1: around eleven o'clock in the morning, and the specialists said, 504 00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:27,960 Speaker 1: I'm not reopening till life on buyers. And that's how 505 00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:30,800 Speaker 1: come we made the low that morning, because they literally 506 00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:35,080 Speaker 1: closed the market without really closing the market, okay, which 507 00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:37,320 Speaker 1: is what the circuit breakers today are sort of meant 508 00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:40,840 Speaker 1: to do, right anyway, But to me that was pretty scary. 509 00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:43,640 Speaker 1: So again, anybody who tells you that, oh it was 510 00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:47,600 Speaker 1: so easy, please, they didn't live through it all right, 511 00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:50,720 Speaker 1: which is why I look at those nine crash charts 512 00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:55,680 Speaker 1: and I'm like scared. Okay. So history repeats, patterns repeat, 513 00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:59,320 Speaker 1: and so yes, I often will take a look at 514 00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:02,320 Speaker 1: a chart and think, ah, I think I've seen this before, 515 00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:07,320 Speaker 1: and most recently I took a look at UM two 516 00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:12,040 Speaker 1: thousand to two thousand and one, and it's it's quite 517 00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:15,680 Speaker 1: interesting to see how we came down and we rallied 518 00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:18,400 Speaker 1: and we came back. Anyway, if I did a Twitter 519 00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:21,800 Speaker 1: thread on it, and what I found was fascinating was 520 00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:25,040 Speaker 1: obviously no one could have ever predicted nine eleven, and 521 00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:28,160 Speaker 1: let's hope we never have another one again. But that 522 00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:33,120 Speaker 1: capitulatory low led to I can't remember if it was 523 00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:36,840 Speaker 1: about a twelve or thirteent rally in the SNP over 524 00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:41,000 Speaker 1: the next six or eight weeks, and you did not 525 00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:45,960 Speaker 1: turn around and die. We went into from November until 526 00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:48,760 Speaker 1: March or April, we just went into a like a 527 00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:51,280 Speaker 1: ten percent trading range, up and down, up and down, 528 00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:53,200 Speaker 1: up and down, up and down. Now, yes, what came 529 00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:55,680 Speaker 1: out on the other end in April was a complete plunge, 530 00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:59,560 Speaker 1: but forget that. But you really, and and it seems 531 00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:03,320 Speaker 1: to me nobody even entertains the fact that now we 532 00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:05,800 Speaker 1: can just have a market that doesn't have to give 533 00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:08,440 Speaker 1: it all back, it doesn't have to keep going. You 534 00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:12,400 Speaker 1: could really just digest what we just had with within 535 00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:15,680 Speaker 1: the context of ups and downs, ups and downs, and 536 00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:19,280 Speaker 1: I sort of think that's probably likely. So in other words, 537 00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:21,920 Speaker 1: I don't care what jacksonhole happens if if you know, 538 00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:24,080 Speaker 1: like if the market plunges, so it's part of the 539 00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:27,000 Speaker 1: up and down, up and down. Well, this was actually 540 00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:28,720 Speaker 1: gonna be my next question, but can you talk a 541 00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:32,200 Speaker 1: little bit about how you view the relationship between stocks 542 00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:35,240 Speaker 1: and yields, So bond yields at the moment, like, is 543 00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:38,240 Speaker 1: that something that you look at and can you apply 544 00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:42,560 Speaker 1: the same sort of indicators and technical analysis to bond 545 00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:44,760 Speaker 1: movements as you can to stocks, or at least try 546 00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:48,120 Speaker 1: to um draw the relationship between them. Well, when it 547 00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:50,040 Speaker 1: comes to bonds, I just I literally just look at 548 00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:53,360 Speaker 1: the charts because that's all I have personally, I don't 549 00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:56,040 Speaker 1: have anything else. I do have a sentiment indicator that 550 00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:58,920 Speaker 1: I like to use, but it only gets extreme if 551 00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:02,320 Speaker 1: you're lucky once or why a year so um which, 552 00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:05,800 Speaker 1: by the way, it got extreme in June at you know, 553 00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:09,240 Speaker 1: which meant yields were probably at the high. There is 554 00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:13,200 Speaker 1: a direct relationship between interest rates and the stock market. 555 00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:15,880 Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, I will tell you that 556 00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:21,400 Speaker 1: in January, just as Trump was taking office, everybody was 557 00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:23,360 Speaker 1: a little hysterical what was going to happen to the 558 00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:26,400 Speaker 1: stock market? And I went back and I looked at 559 00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:32,040 Speaker 1: how presidential scandals, if you will, or situations affect the 560 00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:35,880 Speaker 1: stock market, and the answer was they don't. And I 561 00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:40,080 Speaker 1: did an attire study on it, and I found out 562 00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:45,880 Speaker 1: what effects the stock market. Interest rates are Obviously the biggie, 563 00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:50,720 Speaker 1: and the other is taxes, so financial. I mean, some 564 00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:52,720 Speaker 1: people would say earnings, but I would say, well, low 565 00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:55,880 Speaker 1: interest rates help earnings, and you know, lower taxes help earnings. 566 00:31:55,920 --> 00:32:00,520 Speaker 1: So it's all related, but it's financial indicators are what 567 00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:03,960 Speaker 1: matters to the stock market. So of course interest rates matter. 568 00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:05,720 Speaker 1: And if you go back and you take a look 569 00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:10,360 Speaker 1: at the low in in June, I'm sorry that the 570 00:32:10,400 --> 00:32:14,000 Speaker 1: low end bonds, the high end yields in June was 571 00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:17,560 Speaker 1: absolutely when not just the stock market stop, but when 572 00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:22,000 Speaker 1: all the growth stocks stopped going down and commodities had 573 00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:27,280 Speaker 1: a little peak you know there. I don't understand who 574 00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:29,080 Speaker 1: you cannot look at the charts and not see it, 575 00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:32,720 Speaker 1: but to me, it's that obvious. And and right now 576 00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:35,320 Speaker 1: I think that if you go back again to Tracy 577 00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:38,920 Speaker 1: left and interest rates were near their lows, and now 578 00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:42,480 Speaker 1: they've crept up, and what's been gotten hit the hardest. Oh, look, 579 00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:47,400 Speaker 1: growth stocks, Tracy go back on vacation again, I'd be 580 00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:51,120 Speaker 1: happy to, all right, for the good of everyone's portfolio, 581 00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:53,800 Speaker 1: I will take that on. Can we actually talk a 582 00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:58,080 Speaker 1: little bit more about you know, we're talking about the 583 00:32:58,160 --> 00:33:00,480 Speaker 1: meme stocks having this sort of like kind of like 584 00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:05,560 Speaker 1: this weird echo of January February one lately with like 585 00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:09,160 Speaker 1: AMC back in the news, bed bath and beyond back 586 00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:12,560 Speaker 1: of the news. It feels like, you know, my recollection 587 00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:16,920 Speaker 1: after the dot com bubble burst and the start of 588 00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:19,640 Speaker 1: I guess it's early two thousand, like the very peak, 589 00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:22,920 Speaker 1: it took a while for people to really give up 590 00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:25,640 Speaker 1: the story. And you did see these sort of echo 591 00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:29,160 Speaker 1: booms where the stuff the high Flyers from. They would 592 00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:31,600 Speaker 1: have these occasional rally I think we were like four 593 00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:36,240 Speaker 1: or five like rallies during that those two years that 594 00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:38,600 Speaker 1: you're talking about, Like it took people a long time 595 00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:40,760 Speaker 1: to sort of give it up and say, no, this 596 00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:44,920 Speaker 1: is really that story is over. Go back and take 597 00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:46,720 Speaker 1: a look at the chart. The S and P came 598 00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:49,560 Speaker 1: back almost to the old high in September of two thousand. 599 00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:54,000 Speaker 1: I mean, so nobody was talking bear market. Um. I 600 00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:56,160 Speaker 1: think I think there were plenty of were talking that 601 00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:59,640 Speaker 1: the dot com bust had happened again. If if you 602 00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:01,920 Speaker 1: take a look at that, and then if I if 603 00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:06,040 Speaker 1: my memory serves, I think it was in December, around 604 00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:10,320 Speaker 1: sometime early December two thousand, one of the high flyers 605 00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:14,560 Speaker 1: maybe in Cisco maybe pre announced a quarter or had 606 00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:17,439 Speaker 1: some announcement, and it was sort of what I call 607 00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:21,279 Speaker 1: a realization when everyone goes, oh my god, maybe things 608 00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:25,640 Speaker 1: aren't so good, and and the and the market started falling, 609 00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:28,160 Speaker 1: and and and I would I would also tell you 610 00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:33,279 Speaker 1: I think that Twitter and the and social media has 611 00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:36,960 Speaker 1: has learned, has has really exacerbated everything we do in 612 00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:41,280 Speaker 1: the market tenfold. We'll talk about that. That's interesting. Well, 613 00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:44,960 Speaker 1: I mean when when I was a child, when I 614 00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:47,759 Speaker 1: got when I got into the business, Um, I told 615 00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:49,960 Speaker 1: you you had a quote tron. You you couldn't even 616 00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:52,279 Speaker 1: pull up a news story on a quote tron. The 617 00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:55,200 Speaker 1: story came across the tape, as we called it. The 618 00:34:55,200 --> 00:34:58,040 Speaker 1: story came across, and if you wanted to read the story, 619 00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:00,399 Speaker 1: you got to get up from your desk, look over 620 00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:03,080 Speaker 1: to the Dow Jones news machine, which was like a 621 00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:05,600 Speaker 1: roll of paper that just you know, spit it out 622 00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:08,000 Speaker 1: and you had to you know, sort of pull it off, 623 00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:10,800 Speaker 1: caught it, tape it, xerox it, and then you have 624 00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:12,960 Speaker 1: to go tape the story back at the machine in 625 00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:15,480 Speaker 1: case somebody else wanted to read it. Think about how 626 00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:18,880 Speaker 1: much time that took just to read a story, whereas 627 00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:20,959 Speaker 1: now you can just pull up any story you want, 628 00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:24,480 Speaker 1: so that immediately just changes the whole timing in the market. 629 00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:28,279 Speaker 1: Things are just accelerated now. Now, picture that if you 630 00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:30,960 Speaker 1: can pull up a story in the market, and everybody 631 00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:32,680 Speaker 1: can pull up a story in the market at the 632 00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:36,200 Speaker 1: exact same time, and then it gets magnified on Twitter 633 00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:40,800 Speaker 1: or Facebook or whatever like that quickly, everything just happened 634 00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:43,880 Speaker 1: so much faster and gets reacted to so much faster 635 00:35:43,960 --> 00:36:02,799 Speaker 1: than it used to be. You know, if you pull 636 00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:06,240 Speaker 1: up a chart of bed, bath and Beyond, for instance, 637 00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:10,200 Speaker 1: which is now a very interesting looking chart with a 638 00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:12,760 Speaker 1: big decline and then a big spike and then another 639 00:36:13,120 --> 00:36:15,920 Speaker 1: big decline in an even shorter time frame. So just 640 00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:18,480 Speaker 1: over the past month, what do you see, like, what 641 00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:20,920 Speaker 1: would you be looking at when you analyze that stock. 642 00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:23,480 Speaker 1: Now you're going to have to give me two seconds 643 00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:26,399 Speaker 1: to pull up the chart. Please do. I will tell 644 00:36:26,440 --> 00:36:28,759 Speaker 1: you I don't look at those charts because to me, 645 00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:32,560 Speaker 1: they're useless. While you're pulling this, I'm looking at the 646 00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:36,080 Speaker 1: q q Q chart from two thousand, just well, you know, 647 00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:38,759 Speaker 1: going back so that it looks like the q q 648 00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:42,920 Speaker 1: Q the NASA on t F peaked at about a 649 00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:44,880 Speaker 1: hundred and twenty in the spring of two thou and 650 00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:52,640 Speaker 1: dropped by May and then rallied another by September. And 651 00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:54,960 Speaker 1: so to your point, like there it was this like 652 00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:57,200 Speaker 1: a really big rebound that I sort of had forgotten about. 653 00:36:57,200 --> 00:36:59,680 Speaker 1: In summer of two thousand were probably a lot of 654 00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:02,080 Speaker 1: people thought, oh, yeah, we're back. Who said that the 655 00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:04,279 Speaker 1: dot com? But that was just a little hiccup, and 656 00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:06,320 Speaker 1: then of course it went to plunge much more, and 657 00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:09,839 Speaker 1: by early two thousand two is down to twenty five. 658 00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:12,480 Speaker 1: But you know, there was this like pretty impressive echo 659 00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:17,000 Speaker 1: boom uh in two anyway. Sorry, yeah, but you know, Joe, 660 00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:19,239 Speaker 1: even if you go back and you think about two 661 00:37:19,280 --> 00:37:22,960 Speaker 1: thousand and seven, two thousand, two thousand and nine, you know, 662 00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:25,359 Speaker 1: we peaked in October of two thousand and seven. How 663 00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:30,120 Speaker 1: many people you think can tell you that we we 664 00:37:30,239 --> 00:37:34,959 Speaker 1: peaked in October of two thousand and seven. How many 665 00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:37,240 Speaker 1: people you think can say to you, oh, most people 666 00:37:37,280 --> 00:37:40,440 Speaker 1: think we peaked in two thousand and eight, because you 667 00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:44,000 Speaker 1: came down then yet a rally I um, I think 668 00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:46,759 Speaker 1: into maybe early January and then and then we came 669 00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:50,120 Speaker 1: down to the bear sterns low remember that, and everybody thought, Okay, 670 00:37:50,160 --> 00:37:53,080 Speaker 1: we're done. That was the problem. It got fixed and 671 00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:56,120 Speaker 1: we rallied into May. Even the banks had a rally 672 00:37:56,160 --> 00:38:01,320 Speaker 1: into May, and then you know, things weren't so good. Okay, Tracy, 673 00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:04,799 Speaker 1: I'm looking at bed Bath and beyond, and all I 674 00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:08,360 Speaker 1: see is a stock that has some serious resistance at thirty. 675 00:38:10,120 --> 00:38:13,879 Speaker 1: Walk us through, walk us through how you make that assessment. Well, 676 00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:16,839 Speaker 1: last September you had a high at thirty, you had 677 00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:19,759 Speaker 1: a higher thirty, and early March had a high. It 678 00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:22,440 Speaker 1: looks like maybe twenty nine in late March, and then 679 00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:24,640 Speaker 1: this time you got to thirty. I don't know. It 680 00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:28,719 Speaker 1: seems like resistance to me. And and usually let me 681 00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:32,040 Speaker 1: just explain to you. Maybe maybe some readers should readers 682 00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:37,400 Speaker 1: listeners should shouldn't understand think of resistance. Um, let me 683 00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:39,400 Speaker 1: think of how to explain this. Okay. I think of 684 00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:42,479 Speaker 1: resistance as a big giant sandwich you're trying to eat. 685 00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:45,520 Speaker 1: And it's the old joke, how do you eat an 686 00:38:45,560 --> 00:38:48,760 Speaker 1: elephant one bite at a time. Okay, So just because 687 00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:51,000 Speaker 1: you got to resistance isn't the end of the world, 688 00:38:51,400 --> 00:38:54,319 Speaker 1: because you have to think of resistance as I own it. 689 00:38:54,440 --> 00:38:57,719 Speaker 1: Here somebody owns it there, and so somebody is saying, 690 00:38:57,760 --> 00:38:59,640 Speaker 1: oh God, just let me get back to even. And 691 00:38:59,680 --> 00:39:02,719 Speaker 1: I pro us I'll never trade that stock again. I mean, 692 00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:06,120 Speaker 1: we've all had that experience and and so and so 693 00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:08,840 Speaker 1: you're always gonna have somebody who says, thank God, I 694 00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:11,120 Speaker 1: got you know, I was down thirty in the stock 695 00:39:11,120 --> 00:39:12,840 Speaker 1: and now it's got back. I swear I'm never going 696 00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:15,120 Speaker 1: to trade this stock again. And so you that's why 697 00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:18,680 Speaker 1: resistance works, okay. And and so just because you back 698 00:39:18,719 --> 00:39:21,880 Speaker 1: off of resistance doesn't mean it's bearish it. You know, 699 00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:25,000 Speaker 1: you do have to keep eating through it like a 700 00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:29,520 Speaker 1: big sandwich. Now, sometimes it's bearish, but not always. And 701 00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:34,120 Speaker 1: and so I often say basis are not built in 702 00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:36,680 Speaker 1: a day. I know everybody wants the bottom to be 703 00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:38,880 Speaker 1: built in a day, but it isn't. Just like the 704 00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:41,359 Speaker 1: top isn't built in a day. And if it took 705 00:39:41,520 --> 00:39:45,360 Speaker 1: nine months to build the top, you can generally expect 706 00:39:45,400 --> 00:39:47,840 Speaker 1: it's going to take six or nine months to build 707 00:39:47,840 --> 00:39:50,560 Speaker 1: a bottom because you have to sort of go from 708 00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:53,880 Speaker 1: weekends to strong hands. Let me ask you about another 709 00:39:54,080 --> 00:39:59,120 Speaker 1: chart that probably is maybe more sort of crucial for 710 00:39:59,239 --> 00:40:02,320 Speaker 1: the future of the market than bed Beth and beyond 711 00:40:02,480 --> 00:40:04,840 Speaker 1: is entertaining as that story is. And then of course 712 00:40:05,080 --> 00:40:08,440 Speaker 1: is Apple And what do you see when you pull 713 00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:10,000 Speaker 1: up the Apple chart? You know, I can sort of 714 00:40:10,000 --> 00:40:14,480 Speaker 1: eyeball A peaked actually January, then it almost came back 715 00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:16,319 Speaker 1: to it ties in April that it had a lower 716 00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:19,239 Speaker 1: high in August. It's come back like is this a 717 00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:22,720 Speaker 1: is this having a hard time? Is it the same story? 718 00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:25,040 Speaker 1: It's a really tough resistance to break through, Like, what's 719 00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:27,480 Speaker 1: the story here? It's a stock that got to resistance. 720 00:40:28,080 --> 00:40:31,520 Speaker 1: That's that's what I see. So let me right now 721 00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:35,280 Speaker 1: because my view on the market is not wildly bullish, Okay, 722 00:40:35,600 --> 00:40:37,759 Speaker 1: right now, I'm I pretty much think you're going to 723 00:40:37,840 --> 00:40:43,719 Speaker 1: have a volatile period from now through September. UM. That's 724 00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:47,279 Speaker 1: just the My indicators say that we're overbought, where intermediate 725 00:40:47,360 --> 00:40:51,000 Speaker 1: term overbought, short term overbought, uh breath has started to 726 00:40:51,080 --> 00:40:53,480 Speaker 1: roll over, so you sort of have to cycle through 727 00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:57,680 Speaker 1: that whole overbrought to over sould period. So you know, 728 00:40:57,719 --> 00:40:59,560 Speaker 1: if I was if I thought that the market was 729 00:40:59,560 --> 00:41:03,520 Speaker 1: overbull oversold here, I would be more positive on Apple 730 00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:06,239 Speaker 1: right now. But I look at the Apple chart and 731 00:41:06,320 --> 00:41:10,439 Speaker 1: I say, Okay, Apple ran from one thirty to one 732 00:41:10,520 --> 00:41:13,719 Speaker 1: seventy five. You know, big deal. If it comes down 733 00:41:13,760 --> 00:41:17,520 Speaker 1: to one fifty and it holds in the big scheme 734 00:41:17,520 --> 00:41:20,160 Speaker 1: of things, it's no big deal, you know, if you're 735 00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:23,880 Speaker 1: an Apple holder. And and I would look at so 736 00:41:23,920 --> 00:41:25,600 Speaker 1: now I look at the chart, and really all I 737 00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:28,239 Speaker 1: see is a lot of resistance at one eight. That's 738 00:41:28,280 --> 00:41:32,879 Speaker 1: all I see. So I think it should correct? Could 739 00:41:32,920 --> 00:41:35,160 Speaker 1: it correct all the way down to one fifty? Sure? 740 00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:38,239 Speaker 1: All right, I have one more stock I want to 741 00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:40,279 Speaker 1: ask you about it. And it's also a very interesting chart, 742 00:41:40,360 --> 00:41:43,400 Speaker 1: and it's one that you and I have a shared 743 00:41:43,600 --> 00:41:48,680 Speaker 1: affinity for this chart, could you and I think it's 744 00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:50,840 Speaker 1: already up on my scres on my screen to you? 745 00:41:50,840 --> 00:41:52,480 Speaker 1: All right? So what what tell me what you see 746 00:41:52,520 --> 00:41:56,840 Speaker 1: when you see the Shopify chart? It's a dot com bust. Okay, 747 00:41:57,880 --> 00:42:01,160 Speaker 1: that's that's the only thing I see there. I see 748 00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:04,760 Speaker 1: a stock that had a huge, massive peak and and 749 00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:06,920 Speaker 1: and in that respect, I'm going to go to a 750 00:42:07,040 --> 00:42:09,640 Speaker 1: little bit of a longer term chart. But we just 751 00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:15,880 Speaker 1: discussed earlier early and that stock, if you take a look, 752 00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:19,680 Speaker 1: got up just over one forty had the big correction. 753 00:42:20,520 --> 00:42:24,319 Speaker 1: Now take a look how it got to one sixty 754 00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:27,440 Speaker 1: and then it just kind of died I and you know, 755 00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:29,279 Speaker 1: then it corrected, it came up to a little over 756 00:42:29,360 --> 00:42:32,680 Speaker 1: one sixty, and then died again. I I think if 757 00:42:32,680 --> 00:42:36,440 Speaker 1: you think about a breakout, like you think about a 758 00:42:36,520 --> 00:42:40,319 Speaker 1: kid running away from home. Okay, did the kid go 759 00:42:40,400 --> 00:42:42,759 Speaker 1: to the garage of the neighbor next door and look 760 00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:45,239 Speaker 1: across the street to see if mom was worried? Or 761 00:42:45,280 --> 00:42:46,600 Speaker 1: did the kid get on a bus and go to 762 00:42:46,600 --> 00:42:48,799 Speaker 1: the next town. The kid who got on a bus 763 00:42:48,800 --> 00:42:51,000 Speaker 1: and goes to the next town as a breakout, The 764 00:42:51,080 --> 00:42:53,040 Speaker 1: kid who went next door to the neighbor didn't really 765 00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:56,520 Speaker 1: want to run away. I just wanted to see what 766 00:42:56,560 --> 00:42:59,359 Speaker 1: was happening. Um. And so a stock that keeps trying 767 00:42:59,360 --> 00:43:01,279 Speaker 1: to break out and can't is the kid who went 768 00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:03,640 Speaker 1: to the neighbor. And that, to me is what I 769 00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:06,400 Speaker 1: see in shopify it. It kept trying to do it, 770 00:43:06,440 --> 00:43:09,400 Speaker 1: but it kept coming. Sometimes those kids, sometimes even the 771 00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:11,120 Speaker 1: kids who come to go to the next town, I 772 00:43:11,400 --> 00:43:16,000 Speaker 1: regret it want to come home. This is true. But 773 00:43:17,000 --> 00:43:20,239 Speaker 1: you know, you can also measure a target there and 774 00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:23,280 Speaker 1: then you don't want to know. It doesn't look pretty, 775 00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:27,000 Speaker 1: looks like I want this to be. This is just 776 00:43:27,080 --> 00:43:29,160 Speaker 1: go through all the This should be mad money. This 777 00:43:29,200 --> 00:43:31,960 Speaker 1: is what mad money should be. A Helene Meisler just 778 00:43:32,480 --> 00:43:35,600 Speaker 1: it's so good. It's so good. Oh stop anyway that, 779 00:43:35,880 --> 00:43:38,319 Speaker 1: you know. So let me just give you about the 780 00:43:38,360 --> 00:43:41,279 Speaker 1: market right now. I don't know what happens in Jackson Hall. 781 00:43:41,520 --> 00:43:44,000 Speaker 1: I mean it just to me, it seems like a 782 00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:46,560 Speaker 1: big wild card right here in the near term. But 783 00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:49,680 Speaker 1: I think we have a market that should see a 784 00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:53,360 Speaker 1: lot more volatility. We have a market that has sentiment 785 00:43:54,000 --> 00:43:58,160 Speaker 1: that is not terribly giddy. Um, it's it's certainly going 786 00:43:58,239 --> 00:44:01,319 Speaker 1: to be barished pretty quickly. Uh. And if you just 787 00:44:01,360 --> 00:44:03,480 Speaker 1: want to witness, every weekend, I do a poll on 788 00:44:03,520 --> 00:44:05,840 Speaker 1: Twitter for the next hundred points in the S and 789 00:44:05,880 --> 00:44:13,000 Speaker 1: P and this past weekend I had only or thirty 790 00:44:13,080 --> 00:44:15,400 Speaker 1: three percent. We're looking for the next hundred points to 791 00:44:15,400 --> 00:44:17,600 Speaker 1: be on the upside. And I've been keeping that poll 792 00:44:17,680 --> 00:44:20,760 Speaker 1: for over two years and that's the the least number 793 00:44:20,800 --> 00:44:24,359 Speaker 1: looking for the upside we've had. So it, you know, 794 00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:28,120 Speaker 1: it tells you something about how fast sentiment will turn bearish. 795 00:44:28,320 --> 00:44:31,640 Speaker 1: To go back to Tracy's question about did we have 796 00:44:31,680 --> 00:44:34,440 Speaker 1: short covering or did we have real buying. You know, 797 00:44:34,480 --> 00:44:37,120 Speaker 1: I think the short covering for the most part ended 798 00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:40,239 Speaker 1: sometime in late July, and it's not clear to me 799 00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:43,560 Speaker 1: that you had a ton of real buying in early August. Again, 800 00:44:43,640 --> 00:44:46,640 Speaker 1: those new highs coming down, so I don't think people 801 00:44:46,680 --> 00:44:50,520 Speaker 1: are position terribly heavily in the market, which means can 802 00:44:50,560 --> 00:44:53,360 Speaker 1: you come down and make new loads. You can, but 803 00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:56,960 Speaker 1: probably not before you get over sold and already too 804 00:44:57,000 --> 00:45:00,200 Speaker 1: much bearishness. So that's I go back to that two 805 00:45:00,239 --> 00:45:03,600 Speaker 1: thousand and one scenario where you could easily have a 806 00:45:03,760 --> 00:45:05,719 Speaker 1: ten or twelve percent up and down, up and down, 807 00:45:05,800 --> 00:45:10,120 Speaker 1: up and down. Helene Meisler, this was so fantastic. This 808 00:45:10,200 --> 00:45:12,719 Speaker 1: was this totally lived up to the hype. Very fun. 809 00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:14,840 Speaker 1: Really appreciate you coming out. I think we should do 810 00:45:14,880 --> 00:45:17,520 Speaker 1: this once a quarter. Actually it's in all seriousness where 811 00:45:17,560 --> 00:45:20,080 Speaker 1: we check in with you on the on the ind 812 00:45:20,080 --> 00:45:23,320 Speaker 1: this seas on some individual names, and get an update 813 00:45:23,440 --> 00:45:26,359 Speaker 1: on the weekly Helene Meisler Twitter poll, which I think 814 00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:29,000 Speaker 1: should supersede all those other poles if it's especially if 815 00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:31,960 Speaker 1: you keep it going several years. So fantastic. Thank you 816 00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:35,480 Speaker 1: so much for coming on the Outlaws podcast. Thanks and 817 00:45:35,560 --> 00:45:38,919 Speaker 1: mail guys. Thanks Helene. That was great. That was really fun. 818 00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:56,040 Speaker 1: I'm so glad we finally had Helena. Yeah, she definitely 819 00:45:56,040 --> 00:45:57,920 Speaker 1: lived up to the hype, as you said. But it's 820 00:45:57,960 --> 00:46:02,080 Speaker 1: great too. You know, I think technical analysis does get 821 00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:04,919 Speaker 1: its share of criticism. And I really like the way 822 00:46:05,000 --> 00:46:09,080 Speaker 1: she described it as basically looking at the fundamentals of 823 00:46:09,160 --> 00:46:12,640 Speaker 1: the market versus the fundamentals of a specific company, looking 824 00:46:12,640 --> 00:46:15,839 Speaker 1: at things like sentiment and breadth and how people are 825 00:46:15,840 --> 00:46:18,480 Speaker 1: generally feeling about the market at any one time and 826 00:46:18,520 --> 00:46:21,080 Speaker 1: how it's actually behaving. That makes sense to me. Yeah, 827 00:46:21,160 --> 00:46:23,000 Speaker 1: there's a lot if you if you think about it, 828 00:46:23,080 --> 00:46:25,839 Speaker 1: I think as an attempt to sort of quantify and 829 00:46:25,960 --> 00:46:30,160 Speaker 1: visualize psychology. We know that psychology is really important in 830 00:46:30,200 --> 00:46:33,160 Speaker 1: the market, and I mean that's that's not even controversial, 831 00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:36,359 Speaker 1: but you know, markets overshooting undershoot the fun fundamentals all 832 00:46:36,400 --> 00:46:39,440 Speaker 1: the time. You know, we're all we're all animals, etcetera. 833 00:46:39,840 --> 00:46:41,640 Speaker 1: Then I think it makes a lot of sense. And 834 00:46:41,719 --> 00:46:45,120 Speaker 1: so combining the sort of visualization of the chart with 835 00:46:45,239 --> 00:46:49,640 Speaker 1: things like the internals with various surveys with volume to 836 00:46:49,760 --> 00:46:53,360 Speaker 1: sort of indicate, Okay, this is a lot of people 837 00:46:53,360 --> 00:46:55,239 Speaker 1: are selling right now, it's not just that markets are down. 838 00:46:55,280 --> 00:46:57,200 Speaker 1: A lot of people are selling. I think you can 839 00:46:57,280 --> 00:47:00,160 Speaker 1: have some real signal from it. Yeah, and I guess 840 00:47:00,160 --> 00:47:02,920 Speaker 1: on that basis we might have an interesting um a 841 00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:06,280 Speaker 1: few weeks coming up. Yeah, totally. And to her point, 842 00:47:06,360 --> 00:47:09,160 Speaker 1: which is like, okay, we've there aren't many bowls right now, 843 00:47:09,239 --> 00:47:11,200 Speaker 1: not a lot of people have entered the market. But 844 00:47:11,239 --> 00:47:13,680 Speaker 1: on the other hand, like there's still a lot of barishness, 845 00:47:13,800 --> 00:47:16,120 Speaker 1: and so it's hard to go down when everyone is 846 00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:18,000 Speaker 1: still out of the market. Like you seem to me 847 00:47:18,080 --> 00:47:22,040 Speaker 1: like useful, useful things for thinking about where the market's 848 00:47:22,080 --> 00:47:24,000 Speaker 1: gonna go next. Yeah, for sure, we'll have to have 849 00:47:24,040 --> 00:47:27,000 Speaker 1: Heny in on again at something absolutely all right, shall 850 00:47:27,040 --> 00:47:28,759 Speaker 1: we leave it there? Let's leave it there. This has 851 00:47:28,800 --> 00:47:32,160 Speaker 1: been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. 852 00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:34,600 Speaker 1: You can follow me on Twitter at Tracy Alloway and 853 00:47:34,640 --> 00:47:36,799 Speaker 1: I'm Joe wi Isn't All. You can follow me on 854 00:47:36,840 --> 00:47:40,960 Speaker 1: Twitter at the Stalwart. Definitely follow our guest Helene Meisler 855 00:47:41,040 --> 00:47:44,760 Speaker 1: on Twitter. She's at h Meisler. Follow our producer Carmen 856 00:47:44,920 --> 00:47:48,160 Speaker 1: Rodriguez at Carmen Armann, and check out all of our 857 00:47:48,200 --> 00:48:19,560 Speaker 1: podcasts Bloomberg under the handle at podcasts. Thanks for listening 858 00:48:06,719 --> 00:48:06,759 Speaker 1: to