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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: What's Up? Everybody? Welcome into the Action Network Podcast. UFC

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Speaker 2: Betting Preview, UFC London Blades aspitall your main event we

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Speaker 2: will discuss momentarily. We want to get some housekeeping out

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Speaker 2: of the way. Off the top, those of you that

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Speaker 2: are a fan of the Action Network podcast, three key

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Speaker 2: things come in your way very soon on the pod.

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Speaker 2: Of course we're talking UFC, but some other things to

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Speaker 2: have on your radar. We'll have an experts guide to

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Speaker 2: betting soccer that's coming your way next week. Also, those

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Speaker 2: of you that are fans of Stucky, we'll have NFL

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Speaker 2: with Stucky in two weeks. And then in the college

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Speaker 2: football world, Big Bets on Campus one of our other

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Speaker 2: great podcasts, preseason preview coming your way three episodes next week.

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Speaker 2: So Soccer, NFL and those of you hungry for college

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Speaker 2: football with Big Bets on Campus. That's all coming your

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Speaker 2: way on the Action Network Landscape, and of course the

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Speaker 2: NFL stuff soccer that's here on the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Back to the task at hand. This episode, this UFC preview,

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Speaker 2: we have Action Network senior writer Shan Zarillo and Action

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Speaker 2: Network MMA analyst former MMA fighter Billy Ward, your host,

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Speaker 2: Brendan Glass Sheen, so we head to O two Arena

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Speaker 2: in London, Blades Aspinall. Blades is the slight dog at

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Speaker 2: plus one twenty five. Aspinall at minus one forty five.

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Speaker 2: The latest coming on DraftKings heavyweight main event Shan Zarrillo.

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Speaker 2: Blades has won six of his last seven fights, coming

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Speaker 2: in as a dog. How are you betting this fight

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Speaker 2: and what do you make of it?

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Speaker 3: We'll be an underdog for the first time in his careerer,

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Speaker 3: or at least his UFC career as well, because he

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Speaker 3: typically has the wrestling advantage over the heavyweights, and that's

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Speaker 3: not something that you see in this division as much.

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Speaker 3: But Tom Aspinall is a great grappler. His dad was

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Speaker 3: a decorated Brazilian jiu jitsu grappler. His grappling has looked

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Speaker 3: tremendous whenever he's used it at the UFC level. The

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Speaker 3: question with Aspinall was and will continue to remain his

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Speaker 3: cardio because he's finished his opponents too quickly and you

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Speaker 3: can't really hold that against him. It shows his upside

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Speaker 3: shows up quickly. He's able to get people out of there,

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Speaker 3: and he is a finisher. But if this guy gets extended,

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Speaker 3: we still don't know what he's going to look like

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Speaker 3: in rounds three and four. He may gass out completely

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Speaker 3: because he's made it to the second round of the

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Speaker 3: past and been huffing and puffing.

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Speaker 4: He's very athletic.

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Speaker 3: I'd say he's the better athlete in this matchup, maybe

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Speaker 3: the better pure grappler, even though Blades has the better

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Speaker 3: wrestling and is the much better wrestler overall.

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Speaker 4: But Ospinal very athletic.

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Speaker 3: I think he's the better striker, and his speed is

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Speaker 3: going to pose a problem for Blades early early. So

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Speaker 3: if I'm looking at this fight from a pre fight

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Speaker 3: betting perspective, now that Blades money line is getting closer

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Speaker 3: to that plus one twenty five plus one thirty mark,

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Speaker 3: I'm going to consider betting him. I'd prefer to wait

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Speaker 3: until live after round one because Aspenal typically finishes his

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Speaker 3: opponents early. He should be the better striker early when

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Speaker 3: he's fresh, but once he starts the tire, Blades should

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Speaker 3: be able to wrestle him and take over down the stretch.

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Speaker 3: Blades as the proven cardio, He's been twenty five minutes

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Speaker 3: multiple times in the past. His durability is a bit

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Speaker 3: of a question mark, so I'm not sure how he's

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Speaker 3: going to look if Aspinall connects clean early. So what

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Speaker 3: I'm going to look to do live bet Blades after

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Speaker 3: round one. Play the fight to end inside the distance

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Speaker 3: at a big, juicy number around minus.

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Speaker 4: Two to eighty.

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Speaker 3: You can parlay that up with some other things I

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Speaker 3: like in this card, like Martia Casey's money line. So

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Speaker 3: parlay that fight to end inside the distance number at

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Speaker 3: a juicy price, because I think either Aspenal finishes Blades

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Speaker 3: early or Blades wrestles Aspenal and grinds.

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Speaker 4: It out on the matt late.

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Speaker 3: He has pretty good ground and pound and Aspinaal is

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Speaker 3: a good submission game as well. So I see this

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Speaker 3: fight finishing inside the twenty five minutes. I see Aspenal

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Speaker 3: being dangerous early and Blades eventually taking over down the stretch.

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Speaker 3: But as I said, now that that money line on

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Speaker 3: the Blade side is coming up closer to plus one

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Speaker 3: twenty five plus one thirty, I'm starting to get a

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Speaker 3: bit more interested in the underdog.

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Speaker 2: Blades gets the juices going with that Mortal Kombat intro.

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Speaker 2: So as Zarrillo said, he maybe you wait after round

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Speaker 2: one and see how you evaluate Billy. How are you

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Speaker 2: looking at Blades here? I think you've got a similar

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Speaker 2: sentiment as Azerillo.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, I've been watching this one pretty close

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Speaker 5: all week. We saw a lot of heavy favorites, mostly

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Speaker 5: on the British side to open the week, and most

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Speaker 5: of them have increased a little bit. And I kind

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Speaker 5: of set for myself mentally a little bit earlier that

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Speaker 5: I wanted to plus one thirty or better on Blaze.

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Speaker 6: So we're getting there.

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Speaker 5: Sean pointed out the best I'm seeing right now in

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Speaker 5: him is plus one twenty five.

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Speaker 6: It's just not quite enough for me.

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Speaker 5: I think my lean is that he'll be able to

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Speaker 5: get some takedowns and he'll probably be able to avoid

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Speaker 5: this on the ground, but we'll be able to do

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Speaker 5: it enough times to avoid the striking of askpinall.

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Speaker 6: That's my real question. So, yeah, you know, when.

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Speaker 5: It was plus one ten earlier in the week, I

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Speaker 5: had no interest in this one, and I'm gonna hold

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Speaker 5: out for plus one thirty and if that doesn't ever

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Speaker 5: come up, then I'm with Sean. I'm gonna look at

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Speaker 5: some live angles there, but as it stands right now,

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Speaker 5: no bet for me until we can get.

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Speaker 6: Just a little bit more on the blade side.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Fight of the Night coming up, also favorite Props

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Speaker 2: while the DFS breakdown from Billy for UFC London and

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Speaker 2: then also best Bets. Next up, Favorite Underdog. We'll start

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Speaker 2: with shan.

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Speaker 3: Zrillo, Makwan Airmer Khannie mister Finland. I view him as

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Speaker 3: the better grappler in this matchup. He just has the

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Speaker 3: worst gas tanks, so after five seven minutes it could

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Speaker 3: become a little bit questionable. On his side, he's not

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Speaker 3: as good at getting people down after that opening frame.

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Speaker 3: But going against Jonathan Pierce, I certainly view him as

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Speaker 3: the better grappler, and you look at Pierce's last fight.

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Speaker 3: He put his neck in a lot of different positions

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Speaker 3: where Amir Kanie probably would have snatched it up, rocked

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Speaker 3: a couple times on the feet, andmir Kanie has enough

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Speaker 3: power to hurt people. I think this fight should be

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Speaker 3: basically a coin flip at worst, emir Kani almost all

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Speaker 3: of the early finishing upside, and then maybe Pierce takes

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Speaker 3: over down the stretch or finds a late finish of

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Speaker 3: his own. But from a pre fight perspective, this is

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Speaker 3: a very clear Americani bet to me, he gets the

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Speaker 3: dominant positions in all of his fights. He gets a

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Speaker 3: takedown basically every time unless he finishes his opponents first.

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Speaker 3: But you just look back through his fight history, he

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Speaker 3: gets to dominant positions on basically every single opponent that

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Speaker 3: he faces, even if he ends up getting finished later

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Speaker 3: great grecor Roman wrestler. His front troke series is tremendous

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Speaker 3: and he's able to lock in.

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Speaker 4: Chokes on almost everybody.

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Speaker 3: Whether they defend it off is a different story, but

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Speaker 3: he's able to get to those positions in almost every fight,

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Speaker 3: so a decision is not out of the realm of

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Speaker 3: possibility for him. That is why I'm playing his money line.

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Speaker 3: But I also really like his inside the distance prop

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Speaker 3: around plus two seventy five and his submission proper round

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Speaker 3: plus three thirty.

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Speaker 2: Americ Kani plus one fifty five on the money line

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Speaker 2: Pierce minus one eighty. All right, Billy, how about an

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Speaker 2: underdog your favorite dog for the weekend?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I really like the fight between Hannah Goldie and

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Speaker 5: Molly McCann. You know, Goldie is a pretty prohibitive underdog.

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Speaker 5: She opened about three ten and it has gone all

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Speaker 5: the way up to plus three fifty. So I'm glad

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Speaker 5: I didn't beat this one earlier in the week, but

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Speaker 5: I was considering it. I just think McCann's odds or

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Speaker 5: lines are just so juiced because of that spinning back

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Speaker 5: elbow knockout she landed in their last fight, which was

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Speaker 5: also here in O two, And that's not something that

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Speaker 5: I don't want to say as a fluke or lucky

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Speaker 5: because like she's practiced that a million times, I'm sure,

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Speaker 5: but that's not something that's repeatable that we're going to

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Speaker 5: do on a you know, fight in and fight out basis,

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Speaker 5: And it's kind of just a theory thing where we're

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Speaker 5: seeing a fight, it's the one that's most likely to

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Speaker 5: go to a decision on the card. You can get

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Speaker 5: one side at plus three fifty, you know, that's the

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Speaker 5: side I want to be on. I've got a little

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Speaker 5: bit of concern over some unfavorable judging for the American

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Speaker 5: fighters against the Brits here, but this kind of odds

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Speaker 5: it's too hard to avoid. You know, both women throw

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Speaker 5: a ton of volume, both should land a lot of strikes.

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Speaker 5: I don't see McCann really getting Goldie to the mat

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Speaker 5: very easily. She's Goldie, that is, is a much stronger

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Speaker 5: physically fighter. McCann might get one or two in there.

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Speaker 5: I don't think that's going to be a major storyline though.

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Speaker 5: So we've got a bunch of a bunch of strikes

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Speaker 5: coming between the women, probably not a ton of knockdowns,

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Speaker 5: Probably not a ton of power unless mccanlon something crazy.

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Speaker 5: I just want to be holding the ticket at that

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Speaker 5: adds if we do see a decision.

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Speaker 2: Moving on to our fight of the night, Chris Curtis

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Speaker 2: is your slight favorite at minus one fifteen taking on

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Speaker 2: Jack Hermanson, who is at minus one of five. By

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Speaker 2: the way, you can catch all these fights on ESPN

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Speaker 2: Plus tomorrow Saturday for recording on a Friday middleweight fight.

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Speaker 2: Shaan Zrolo, how do you look at this one? Who

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Speaker 2: has the edge and how do you want to better?

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Speaker 6: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I feel bad going against the Action man here because

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Speaker 3: one we are the Action Network. But two I bet

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Speaker 3: on Chris Curtis in all of his UFC fights and

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Speaker 3: he has not let me down. I think this is

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Speaker 3: the spot to finally go against him. Now he is

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Speaker 3: going from facing multiple unranked fighters who have bad cardio

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Speaker 3: to facing a top eight middleweight who has.

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Speaker 4: Very very good cardio.

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Speaker 3: The striking should actually be close. Now, Curtis is the

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Speaker 3: better boxer in the pocket. I think he could piece

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Speaker 3: her Manson up, but when they're at range, Jacks kicks

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Speaker 3: her better, and I think he's going to do a

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Speaker 3: good job staying on the outside of the cage, pitter

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Speaker 3: pattering Curtis with strikes and then eventually working his way

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Speaker 3: into the clinch, getting some cage push, maybe getting takedowns.

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Speaker 3: Her Manson has all the grappling upside here. Now. You

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Speaker 3: see Curtis's recent fights where he denied twenty two takedowns

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Speaker 3: against Dolfho Vieira, more takedowns in his other bouts as well.

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Speaker 3: I said, though, going against guys with worst cardio who

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Speaker 3: gas out rather quickly, who can't sustain that takedown threat

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Speaker 3: throughout the course of the fight, her Manson absolutely going

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Speaker 3: to be able to sustain the takedown threat for fifteen

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Speaker 3: minutes keep Curtis on his toes. Curtis actually got pieced

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Speaker 3: up by vi Era on the feet because if he

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Speaker 3: was worried about defending the takedowns in the first round,

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Speaker 3: he's gonna have to worry about those takedowns against her

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Speaker 3: Manson too, so should open up some striking exchanges for

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Speaker 3: Jack Upstairs as well. I think this is a slight

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Speaker 3: lean to Hermanson is a favorite. Even though you're getting

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Speaker 3: a round plus one hundred minus one ten. I'd prefer

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Speaker 3: to weight to get plus money on him. I was

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Speaker 3: able to grab some plus one hundred myself. This is

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Speaker 3: a big step up in competition for Chris Curtis, I said,

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Speaker 3: going against an actual rank middleweight instead of guys who

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Speaker 3: have clear flaws and are outside of the rankings. So

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Speaker 3: toughest matchup for him to date. He's been grappled by

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Speaker 3: better grapplers in the past. I don't think he's faced

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Speaker 3: the right matchup yet in the UFC.

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Speaker 2: Billy, are you picking a side or is there another angle?

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Speaker 6: Yeah?

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Speaker 5: If I had to pick a side, I think I

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Speaker 5: would actually lean Curtis. There's just a little bit of

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Speaker 5: a similarity between the matchups and the guys they fought before.

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Speaker 5: You know, Sean's right in that it's a step up,

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Speaker 5: but he's fought guys who pretty much wanted to bring

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Speaker 5: him to the ground that was an only game plan,

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Speaker 5: and he has one hundred percent takedown defense. Against guys

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Speaker 5: like Phil Hawes and Brendan Allen who are solid grapplers too.

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Speaker 5: And you know, we saw Hermanson get picked apart a

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Speaker 5: little bit by Sean Strickland. That's a training partner Chris

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Speaker 5: Curtis is and Curtis definitely has more power, So I

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Speaker 5: don't think Hermanson's going to survive that many shots from Curtis.

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Speaker 5: With all that said, I don't think that's the best

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Speaker 5: way to play it unless we can get plus money

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Speaker 5: on Curtis. I'm looking at the under two and a half.

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Speaker 5: This one seems pretty binary, and that if it goes

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Speaker 5: to the matt and Hermanson can get those takedowns, I

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Speaker 5: think he puts away Curtis on the ground, and if

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Speaker 5: Curtis can die one or two of those and make

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Speaker 5: Hermanson tire himself out going for him, he should be

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Speaker 5: able to get the knockout. Neither of these guys really

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Speaker 5: tend to last a long time. Six of nine six

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Speaker 5: of Hermanson's nine wins in the UFC were stoppages, all

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Speaker 5: either ground and pounder submission. So it seems like whichever

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Speaker 5: arena this one stays in, that guy's going to get

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Speaker 5: a finish and under two and a half is even

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Speaker 5: money right now, so you know there's a little bit

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Speaker 5: of danger of a late stoppage from either guy, but

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Speaker 5: I'll take.

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Speaker 6: The under two and a half at even money.

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Speaker 2: K our UFC London preview continues. It's at two Arena

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Speaker 2: in London, England. Favorite props and as we encourage you

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Speaker 2: when it comes to the prop market, really any market

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Speaker 2: shop the lines Sean Zarulo, where are we looking in

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Speaker 2: the prop market for this weekend?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm me or Connie and side the distance at

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Speaker 3: plus two seventy five probably my favorite prop, but I

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Speaker 3: already gave that out, so let's do two other ones

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Speaker 3: at plus money. Nikita Krylov at plus three hundred by

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Speaker 3: decision against Alexander Gustisen. Gustasen coming back from a long layoff.

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Speaker 3: I don't believe he's won a fight in like five years.

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Speaker 3: He got finished in his last fight against Fabrisio verdum

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Speaker 3: Verdumem a very dangerous submission artist. Krylov is a bit

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Speaker 3: of a finisher himself, but I could just see him

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Speaker 3: out wrestling Gustason here for the majority of the fight.

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Speaker 3: Made his decision line about plus two twenty five, so

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Speaker 3: decision for Krylov about plus three hundred. Also, the fight

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Speaker 3: to go to decision is something I'm considering betting as well.

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Speaker 3: And then in the first fight of the night between

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Speaker 3: Claudio Silva and Nicholas Dalby, Silva basically has one path

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Speaker 3: to winning, which.

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Speaker 4: Is via early submission.

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Speaker 3: You can get a submission line out there at about

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Speaker 3: six to one, even as high as seven to one.

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Speaker 4: I made that line closer to plus four thirty.

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Speaker 3: So Claudia Silva buy submission at plus six hundred, and

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Speaker 3: then you could look to live Atdlby after round one.

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Speaker 4: Okay, very good.

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Speaker 2: How about you Billy prop market for us what he got?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, normally I'm not a huge prop guy,

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Speaker 5: but this one just jumped out to me. This one's easy.

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Speaker 5: I've got Paul Craig by submission at plus two to fifty.

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Speaker 6: You know, he opened it plus one fifty on the

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Speaker 6: money line, and that's dropped all the way down a

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Speaker 6: little bit.

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Speaker 5: So I think the better value is just here by submission.

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Speaker 5: All Paul Craig does is submit people. He's not really

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Speaker 5: going to even try to strike with you. If you

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Speaker 5: start hitting him, he'll just pull guard and pull you

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Speaker 5: on top of him. He doesn't even need to take down.

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Speaker 5: Even when he was beating up showgun who on the

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Speaker 5: ground wasn't a TKO Showgun tapped to strikes that goes

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Speaker 5: down as submission too. So if you think Paul Craig

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Speaker 5: has any chance of winning this one, I don't see

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Speaker 5: a reason to play at anything other than submission.

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Speaker 6: That's plus two to fifty. As long as.

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Speaker 5: Vulcan doesn't hang out in there and get an arm

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Speaker 5: broken and that gets ruled a TKO, we should be

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Speaker 5: good on that one.

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Speaker 6: If Paul Craig ends up getting the win.

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Speaker 2: Okay, excellent, And to your point, he's down to plus

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Speaker 2: one thirty on the money line, so yes, that has

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Speaker 2: that it has dipped slightly. Okay, Next up on the pot,

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Speaker 2: we turned to our DFS guy, Billy, and we're going

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Speaker 2: to look at the DFS contest, looking at the DraftKings contest. Now,

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Speaker 2: big big card Billy one of our bigger cards in

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Speaker 2: the last couple of weeks, fourteen fights, which makes for

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Speaker 2: a lot of fun, but in the same breath, makes

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Speaker 2: for a lot of bigger decisions, more difficult decisions.

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Speaker 5: Right, Yeah, I for one, I'm just so glad it's

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Speaker 5: not you know, a twelve eleven fight card where we're

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Speaker 5: trying to pull out all the stops and do something

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Speaker 5: weird just to not get duplicated.

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Speaker 6: You know, they've got all the big contests up.

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Speaker 5: Almost like a pay per view or some of the

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Speaker 5: big first place prizes, so a lot of people are

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Speaker 5: going to be mm and you know, you still want

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Speaker 5: to worry about that ownership a little bit. But it's

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Speaker 5: not you know, priority number one, like on an eleven

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Speaker 5: fight card. But what's interesting here is more than half

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Speaker 5: the fights there's someone favored by minus two thirty or more.

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Speaker 5: So it kind of sets up, in my opinion, a

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Speaker 5: straightforward DFS strategy where we need to nail one or

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Speaker 5: two underdogs, get the main event right, and then just

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Speaker 5: not have one of those heavy favorites that gets upset.

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Speaker 5: So it's obviously easier said than done, but I think

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Speaker 5: that's pretty much going to be what we need to do.

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Speaker 2: You just want people a bunch of money.

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Speaker 6: I mean that's good. That was good melts right.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, if you can correctly identify all of those things,

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Speaker 5: congratulations you're rich. But yeah, you know, on the cheaper side,

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Speaker 5: I like hand of Goldie for cash games, just she

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Speaker 5: fits all the normal boxes. Both women in that fight

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Speaker 5: throw a ton of strikes, longest odds to get stopped.

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Speaker 5: She's averaging over forty points even in her losses in

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Speaker 5: the UFC, So like she's just a perfect floor play.

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Speaker 6: For cash games.

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Speaker 5: And then in terms of GPPs on the cheap side,

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Speaker 5: there's a lot of guys who are if they win,

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Speaker 5: it's very likely to be a stoppage. Sean mentioned malkwanimir Kani.

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Speaker 5: He's won Paul Craig, as I've mentioned before. You know,

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Speaker 5: I'm gonna touch on this and mate with my best bet.

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Speaker 5: But I think Jordan Levitt's in the same boat. He's

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Speaker 5: not taking a decision from Patty pimblet. If he wins,

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Speaker 5: it's probably gonna be a stoppage on the ground, and

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Speaker 5: probably pretty quick. So if you know one of those

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Speaker 5: three or two of those three can get a win,

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Speaker 5: especially if it's a stoppage, and then you avoid those

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Speaker 5: high price fighters that tank, that's pretty much all you

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Speaker 5: need to do.

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Speaker 6: He's a game.

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Speaker 2: There you go, Sean Ziola, you have any thoughts on

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Speaker 2: the daily Fantasy angles here?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, three fights where I see a finish very likely occurring.

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Speaker 3: Aside from Makwan Numer Kanye, it's seventy five hundred who

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Speaker 3: I'm definitely gonna use. But the main event either a

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Speaker 3: quick finish for Ospinaal or a dominant wrestling outcome, or

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Speaker 3: probably a finish for Curtis Blades, one of Paul Krag.

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Speaker 4: And vulcan Osdamir.

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Speaker 3: I see one of those guys is very likely to finish,

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Speaker 3: and then one of Jai Herbert or Kyle Nelson's. You

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Speaker 3: can mix and max mix and match one of those

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Speaker 3: or one of those fighters from each of those three fights.

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Speaker 3: On top of Amir Kanyie. It's seventy five hundred. Play

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Speaker 3: around with those. That's how I'll build the majority in

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Speaker 3: my lineups.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, and depending on how you're doing that with our optimizer,

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Speaker 5: you can also set rules on the fantasy labs. You

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Speaker 5: can set it, and this is something I always want

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Speaker 5: to point out to people. You can set it to

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Speaker 5: have at least one fighter from that fight, or you

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Speaker 5: can set it to have exactly one. So when you're

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Speaker 5: picking fights that you think someone's gonna get a early stoppage,

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Speaker 5: that's when we want that exactly one fighter rule in

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Speaker 5: the optimizer and you could set three or four of

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Speaker 5: those with those fights that early and just going to

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Speaker 5: kind of take care of the rest for you.

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Speaker 2: Is he aid's appropriately priced? Like it should? It be close?

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Speaker 2: I mean it's it's close to ospinal, But is that

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Speaker 2: appropriately priced? Yeah?

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Speaker 5: I mean anytime the main event flight the guys are

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Speaker 5: as close as they are, it's near a lock that

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Speaker 5: whoever wins that is going to be in the optimal

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Speaker 5: as long as it's not one guy like you know,

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Speaker 5: we saw Is a few weeks ago, who is ninety

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Speaker 5: six hundred or something, and most people figured out that

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Speaker 5: even if he wins, he's not gonna be in the optimal.

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Speaker 5: Right with these guys, especially heavyweights with the stoppa jobs,

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Speaker 5: anything under eighty five hundred or so, for both guys,

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Speaker 5: it's like they're gonna make it in there. So I'm

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Speaker 5: not too concerned with trying to pick which one of

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Speaker 5: those guys it guys gets in there, but I'm definitely

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Speaker 5: gonna have one of each of them and ninety nine

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Speaker 5: percent of not all of my lineups.

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Speaker 2: Okay, good stuff, all right, last thing we need to

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Speaker 2: do before we wrap best bets for UFC London. We'll

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Speaker 2: start with Sean Zilla.

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Speaker 3: So I know Billy just talked about Paul Craig by submission.

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Speaker 3: If you are playing to craigside, I think that is

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Speaker 3: the way to play him. Play submissioner inside the distance.

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Speaker 3: Do not play his money line because he is a

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Speaker 3: very low chance of winning a decision here against Volcanosdamir.

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Speaker 3: I like Ozdamir on the money line at minus one

410
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Speaker 3: forty five. I projected him closer to sixty five percent

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Speaker 3: for minus one eighty five. And this is coming from

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Speaker 3: somebody who has bet Paul Craig in the past. Last

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Speaker 3: time Craig fought in London, Billy and I were all

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Speaker 3: over his inside the distance props, but they are a

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Speaker 3: little bit suppressed compared to that fight against Nikita Krylov.

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Speaker 3: He closes a plus one to eighty underdog against Krylov

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Speaker 3: plus two twenty five against Yamaha Hill. This is a

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Speaker 3: much more suppressed line at plus one p thirty. For

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Speaker 3: a guy who does not win minutes is generally losing

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Speaker 3: up until the moment that he wins and pulls something

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Speaker 3: out of his butt. So Vulcan taking a step down

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Speaker 3: in competition relative to his previous fights. I think he's

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Speaker 3: the clear minute winner on the feet, should even be

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Speaker 3: able to finish Craig if this fight stays on the

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Speaker 3: feet for extended stretches. Has good takedown defense in the past,

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Speaker 3: sitting at eighty percent for his career. The one thing

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Speaker 3: he cannot do, and I'm worried he is going to

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Speaker 3: do this is hurt Paul Craig standing. Craig goes to

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Speaker 3: his back and then Vulcan follows him on top and

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Speaker 3: gets triangled.

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Speaker 4: So do not follow him to the ground. Make him

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Speaker 4: get back up.

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Speaker 3: If you heard him, Vulcan, I'm sure you're not listening,

434
00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:10,119
Speaker 3: but if you are, please do not follow him to

435
00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:13,040
Speaker 3: the ground. Vulcan on the moneyline minus one forty five.

436
00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:15,120
Speaker 3: I think the number is just a little bit short

437
00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:17,920
Speaker 3: relative to his finishing upside and his minute winning upside.

438
00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:20,360
Speaker 3: But I do not disagree with the Craig by submission

439
00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:22,520
Speaker 3: or Craig inside the distance takes And.

440
00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:24,600
Speaker 2: For Billy, your best bet of the fourteen fights. You're

441
00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:25,920
Speaker 2: on a money line, pick what do you got?

442
00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:28,240
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm worried about this one, and I'm we're just

443
00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:30,320
Speaker 5: going to be pretty unpopular. But I'm looking at a

444
00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:33,439
Speaker 5: noted handicapper. By the way, Jordan Levitt, who you know,

445
00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:35,000
Speaker 5: we talked about him in his last fight. He came

446
00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:37,480
Speaker 5: out and gave a probabilistic answer and that speaks to

447
00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:39,960
Speaker 5: his fight IQ. But he's fighting Patty Pimblet, as most

448
00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:41,080
Speaker 5: people listening probably know.

449
00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:43,720
Speaker 6: And I understand why Patty's the favorite.

450
00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:45,879
Speaker 5: He's looked good, but man, there's so many holes in

451
00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:47,720
Speaker 5: his game. He runs in with his hands down and

452
00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:50,120
Speaker 5: his chin up. He's wild on the ground. He's leaving

453
00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:52,480
Speaker 5: all kinds of stuff out there. Somebody is going to

454
00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:55,399
Speaker 5: take advantage of that as a significant underdog against Patty Pimblet,

455
00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:57,800
Speaker 5: and it just might be Jordan Levitt. I'm not convinced

456
00:19:57,840 --> 00:20:00,000
Speaker 5: that it will be, but he has tons of grappling upside.

457
00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:01,879
Speaker 5: You know, we saw make his USA debut with a

458
00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:04,800
Speaker 5: vicious slam. It's something I truly never seen before. We

459
00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:07,800
Speaker 5: posted on a guy's head before slam, and he finds submissions,

460
00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:10,000
Speaker 5: he finds a way to win. I just think there's

461
00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:12,960
Speaker 5: enough cracks and what Pimblet brings to the table that

462
00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:15,040
Speaker 5: someone's going to find a way to exploit it. I

463
00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:17,000
Speaker 5: think Levitt's a pretty sharp guy. I think he's going

464
00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:19,199
Speaker 5: to be looking at those things so when you get

465
00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:20,640
Speaker 5: him all the way up at plus two twenty five.

466
00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:21,280
Speaker 6: I gotta take that.

467
00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:25,639
Speaker 2: Excellent all right, fellas good stuff as always Billy Ward, MMA,

468
00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:29,240
Speaker 2: analyst at Action Network. Sean Zillo, Action Network Senior Writer.

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00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:30,920
Speaker 2: Be sure to follow both of those guys on the

470
00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:33,600
Speaker 2: Action Network app where they log their picks. They provide

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00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:38,320
Speaker 2: analysis and information as it pertains to their bets. That

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00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:42,200
Speaker 2: will do it for this UFC betting preview UFC London,

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00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:44,680
Speaker 2: best of luck with your bets. As a reminder, as

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00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:46,520
Speaker 2: we said off the top of the show, coming up

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00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:48,800
Speaker 2: on the Action Network podcast the next couple of weeks

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00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:53,800
Speaker 2: expert guide to betting soccer that's coming your way next week.

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00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:56,760
Speaker 2: In the next couple of weeks, Stucky returns to the

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00:20:56,800 --> 00:21:00,840
Speaker 2: Action Network podcast to discuss the National Football League that's

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00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:03,320
Speaker 2: coming and also those of you that are hungry for

480
00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:08,919
Speaker 2: college football content, our podcast Big Bets on Campus preseason

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00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:12,760
Speaker 2: previews are on the way. Three episodes on the way

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00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:16,440
Speaker 2: next week, so look forward to that. We're back next

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00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:20,600
Speaker 2: Friday to get you set for all things UFC. Brendon

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00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:23,240
Speaker 2: Glasheen signing off. Thanks for listening everybody, and thanks for

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00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:23,679
Speaker 2: tuning in.

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Speaker 4: We will join you again next week,