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Speaker 1: The volume. This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.

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Speaker 2: What is up Straight Fire, Fam, It's me Jason McIntyre

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Speaker 2: Street Fire for Friday, September eighth, first NFL.

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Speaker 3: Game is in the book.

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Speaker 2: We got a dub how about that called my shot Lions.

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Speaker 2: I said thirty one thirty I'll take twenty one to

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Speaker 2: twenty money line. I know a lot of you cash

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Speaker 2: because I got your text messages some of your friends,

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Speaker 2: and then I got the DMS from buddies.

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Speaker 3: Guys.

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Speaker 2: How about that game, It's almost like, I don't know.

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Speaker 2: The Chiefs look kind of, sort of vulnerable.

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Speaker 3: We'll dig into all of that.

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Speaker 2: All the drops by Kadarius Tony me looking like an

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Speaker 2: idiot starting sky Moore in Fantasy, Oh my gosh, we'll

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Speaker 2: get into that obviously. We have a monster interview with

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Speaker 2: David Baker, who has done exceptionally well historically in the

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Speaker 2: big money, million dollar Vegas contests. Are going to love

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Speaker 2: that interview. And at the end of the podcast, I

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Speaker 2: can't believe I did it. Fifteen minutes worth of best

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Speaker 2: bets like a moron. I tried to break down every

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Speaker 2: single game. You can't better in every single game and

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Speaker 2: win you've got to be selective and I try to,

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Speaker 2: you know, talk you guys through my process from some

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Speaker 2: of them. Got a lot of bets. We'll see how

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Speaker 2: they shake out. But obviously, first we got to start

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Speaker 2: with the Kansas City Chiefs, who, for large stretches of

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Speaker 2: the opener in case, looked woefully inept on offense. Chiefs fans,

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Speaker 2: you know, they're out on the ledge.

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Speaker 3: They are concerned.

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Speaker 2: They didn't think that Kadarius Tony Skymore combo, that.

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Speaker 3: Wasn't gonna be a problem.

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Speaker 2: We're good Caderio's Tony's got Jews, He's got pop sky

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Speaker 2: Moore was he second round pick.

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Speaker 3: I loved him coming out of Western Michigan.

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Speaker 2: I had him in the first late first round of

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Speaker 2: my mock. According to the stats, they combined not just

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Speaker 2: those two, but all the receivers for four drops, tied

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Speaker 2: for the second most ever in a game that Mahomes

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Speaker 2: was a quarterback in Kansas City second half when targeting

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Speaker 2: wide receivers, Patrick Mahomes was two of twelve. And of course,

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Speaker 2: the pick six got Detroit back in the game. When

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Speaker 2: the Detroit offense, which we'll get too shortly, was stuck

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Speaker 2: in the mud. That pick six right off the hands

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Speaker 2: of Kadarius Tony, and you know, you go online, you're

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Speaker 2: gonna see like Chiefs fans have broken down all the drops.

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Speaker 2: Like Cadarius Tony had a rough night. It's much easier

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Speaker 2: when you know you're the number three option, you know

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Speaker 2: how I like to talk about him in men's league.

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Speaker 2: In basketball, I'm not a number one option, guys. I'm

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Speaker 2: a realist. I love hoops, I love taking shots. I'm

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Speaker 2: best in a five man group. I'm if we're the

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Speaker 2: number four option and I'm fourth, like, we're good. If

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Speaker 2: I'm the fifth option, we're not losing.

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Speaker 4: Now.

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Speaker 2: If I'm the second option, We're probably gonna be in

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Speaker 2: some trouble. Kadarius Tony has had a nice life, as

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Speaker 2: you know, third guy, fourth guy, slot guy. The spotlight

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Speaker 2: was on him tonight. He was the dude Kelsey out,

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Speaker 2: which is, by the way, the smart move. I think

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Speaker 2: it was smart to sit Kelsey. He should be back

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Speaker 2: for the Jacksonville game. But Kelsey and Sky Moore, I mean,

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Speaker 2: they could not separate. Mahomes got hit seven times, three

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Speaker 2: of them by Aden Hutchinson, and it should have been

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Speaker 2: way more because oh my gosh, and we talked about

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Speaker 2: it here on the podcast.

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Speaker 3: We'd love to talk about the trenches. I know people don't.

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Speaker 2: Love to dig into tackles and guards and centers. Just

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Speaker 2: go look at the Kansas City Chiefs starting new tackles,

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Speaker 2: brand new.

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Speaker 3: And they looked overwhelmed.

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Speaker 2: Mahomes, you can't receivers, can't separate. They missed Juju at

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Speaker 2: least he could separate. And then the guys he is

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Speaker 2: throwing to aren't making catches. I mean, it's Bell, it's

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Speaker 2: Rice who By the way, I got in an auction league.

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Speaker 2: I had him in the starting lineup and I had

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Speaker 2: to pull him. I'm like, there's no way he's doing anything.

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Speaker 2: Of course, he catches a touchdown sky Moore zero, non

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Speaker 2: fact embarrassing.

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Speaker 3: But I know I'm.

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Speaker 2: Bagging on the Chiefs a little bit here, but let's

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Speaker 2: be real, guys. Without Chris Jones, they struggled to stop

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Speaker 2: the run. Now for three quarters, well I'd say for

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Speaker 2: two and a half quarters, they largely bottled up the run.

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Speaker 2: The kid Gibbs, the young kid out of Obama. He's

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Speaker 2: a transfer.

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Speaker 3: He was at Georgia Tech.

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Speaker 2: He goes to Obama. Remember I had a Heisman ticket

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Speaker 2: on him last year. I talked about that. It didn't

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Speaker 2: come close to Stinthic the heintsman, but he looked I

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Speaker 2: mean that guy Spry. He is just bouncing around absorbing

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Speaker 2: hits and I was waiting for more usage from him.

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Speaker 2: It seemed like maybe they don't trust him as much yet.

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Speaker 2: I think he had seven carries compared to like twenty

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Speaker 2: one from Montgomery. Montgomery looked good, but bottom line, then

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Speaker 2: she's got bullied.

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Speaker 3: They got pushed around.

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Speaker 2: In the trenches and they missed Chris Jones and the

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Speaker 2: receivers dropped a million passes like Mahomes and read are.

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Speaker 3: Good, but that looked like a little too much to overcome.

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Speaker 2: So now Kansas City has to go on the road

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Speaker 2: to a fired up can Jacksonville Jaguars team that played

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Speaker 2: them reasonably tough last year. I know they won by

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Speaker 2: seven and ten. I think it was seven and ten,

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Speaker 2: and we'll talk about it in best bets. Jacksonville might

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Speaker 2: need to be on upset alert this week against Indy.

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Speaker 2: Overlooking Indy, Anthony Richardson, no, Jonathan Taylor, and I just

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Speaker 2: wonder if maybe Jacksonville is susceptible this week because they're

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Speaker 2: looking ahead to next week. Kansas City owen won going

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Speaker 2: on the road to a good team, a playoff team,

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Speaker 2: and if Kelsey's back, it ain't gonna be easy.

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Speaker 3: I'm just telling you that right now.

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Speaker 2: And oh, by the way, Juwan Taylor one of the

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Speaker 2: Kansas City tackles who struggled mightily and was off sides

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Speaker 2: down every play and they only called it once late.

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Speaker 2: He played in Jacksonville last year, so I think Trayvon

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Speaker 2: Walker and company they're familiar with his work. It's not

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Speaker 2: gonna be easy for Kansas City next week, folks. Now,

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Speaker 2: a quick word about the Lions. I didn't think they

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Speaker 2: look great.

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Speaker 3: I'll be honest.

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Speaker 2: The early drive where they went for it on fourth

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Speaker 2: down very ballsy. Loved that call, and they end up

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Speaker 2: scoring on that drive. They look great on that drive.

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Speaker 2: Almost every other drive was garbage. They get into the

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Speaker 2: red zone. Jones with the brutal fumble that was a killer,

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Speaker 2: and it looked like they just didn't have the confidence

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Speaker 2: Goff missing throws. It just was not clicking for Detroit

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Speaker 2: for long stretches, and of course the defense kept him

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Speaker 2: in it, although you could argue it was a Kansas

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Speaker 2: City offense or lack thereof.

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Speaker 3: And then branch.

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Speaker 2: The young kid out of Alabama gets lucky interception off

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Speaker 2: Tony's hands right into his bread basket, and we got

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Speaker 2: a tie game. And they hung around, hung around, and

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Speaker 2: then that big catch by Josh Reynolds. Shout out to

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Speaker 2: Josh Reynolds. His new wife used to work at Fox.

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Speaker 3: I know her well.

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Speaker 2: Josh Reynolds had a huge catch and run on that

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Speaker 2: instrumental game winning go.

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Speaker 3: Ahead drive and the fourth.

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Speaker 2: Super happy for Josh Reynolds and this team will be

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Speaker 2: getting Jamison Williams back. I think week six for the

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Speaker 2: gambling and we're just scratching the surface in Detroit. I

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Speaker 2: didn't think they look great, but this was a tall

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Speaker 2: order to go to the defending champs on the road

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Speaker 2: and pull off the dub. I don't know, Rob, I

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Speaker 2: don't want to go overboard, but I'm already regretting not

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Speaker 2: putting the Lions in the NFC North first play spot.

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Speaker 3: I have them missing the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: I had them, Remember, I had them in the playoffs,

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Speaker 2: and I backed off at last minute, looking regrettable. Because

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Speaker 2: the team's got some talent. Man, I'm as Saint Brown's excellent.

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Speaker 2: Gibbs is real shifty.

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Speaker 3: I like that team. The offensive line looked.

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Speaker 2: Good, made plays, and the defense you know, we'll see

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Speaker 2: you know, they got a little lucky there, fortuitous, but

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Speaker 2: a nice win for Detroit. You take it however you

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Speaker 2: can get it, and then you move on to week two.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, you need to stop drinking the Honolulu Blue kool

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Speaker 5: aid right now, Jason.

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Speaker 3: That was.

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Speaker 5: Not a good performance by either team. Like, neither team

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Speaker 5: should feel good about them. I guess if you're Detroit,

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Speaker 5: because you know, you're a poverty franchise historically, so when

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Speaker 5: you get a win like this, this is probably their

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Speaker 5: super Bowl, you know, of the last five years. If

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Speaker 5: I were to get like, you know, they just haven't

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Speaker 5: been good. So to get a win like this an

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Speaker 5: opening night against the defending champions on the road, I

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Speaker 5: understand why they would be excited, and you would see

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Speaker 5: the guys on the gram, you.

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Speaker 4: Know, having fun.

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Speaker 5: But when Dan Campbell is asked after the game, like, hey,

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Speaker 5: would you learn about your team and a win like this,

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Speaker 5: and his answer is, quote, I didn't learn anything. I

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Speaker 5: got a verification of what I already knew. So you

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Speaker 5: knew that your offense was mostly an EPT. You knew

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Speaker 5: that your defense going against the team without their only

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Speaker 5: good receiving option was still allowing guys to run free

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Speaker 5: in the secondary that you could not actually sack Patrick

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Speaker 5: Lomes Eve though you could pressure the heck out of him.

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Speaker 5: He was killing you on these little seven eight yard

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Speaker 5: scrambles that kept extending drive and extending drive. It ultimately

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Speaker 5: would fail because of the Chief wide receivers. And the

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Speaker 5: only reason that you won this game is because, as

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Speaker 5: you mentioned it, a fluke pass that hits a receiver

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Speaker 5: fight in the hands, that bounces directly to your safety

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Speaker 5: for a pick six. Otherwise, the Chiefs win this game.

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Speaker 5: As bad as they played, they win this game word

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Speaker 5: not for that Kadarius Tony drop pick six on the

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Speaker 5: flip side. Go ahead, I'm sorry, Well, you.

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Speaker 3: Rob, you're a bit of a hater here. Let's well,

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Speaker 3: let's be real.

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Speaker 2: The Detroit defense showed up without looking at the box score.

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Speaker 2: Longest carry by a Kansas City.

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Speaker 3: Chief running back not Mahomes running back.

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Speaker 2: You want to guess how long it was?

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Speaker 5: Six yards seven?

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Speaker 2: That defensive line dominated the trenches. Like last year, Detroit

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Speaker 2: couldn't stop anybody couldn't stop a nosebleed.

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Speaker 3: They got run over by everybody except somehow Green Bay.

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Speaker 2: So I was impressed with the defense. Now, Ben Johnson,

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Speaker 2: I'm kind of with you.

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Speaker 3: I'm not drinking the.

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Speaker 2: Blue kool aid whatever that means, but I thought the

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Speaker 2: defense was impressive. Listen, Mahomes averaged five point eight yards

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Speaker 2: per tempt. That is rinky dink garbage like golf was

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Speaker 2: at seven point two, I believe. So it's all like

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Speaker 2: guys can't get open and guys are dropping passes, and

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Speaker 2: Mahomes is like scrambling for his life.

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Speaker 3: Now we don't give Detroit a little bit of credit

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Speaker 3: for that.

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Speaker 5: I mean, you get credit for winning, but I don't

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Speaker 5: know how you would come out of the game talking

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Speaker 5: shit like I don't think you should feel great about

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Speaker 5: their performance that they put on. Okay, the only thing

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Speaker 5: that I will say that, you know, if you're Alliance

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Speaker 5: fans you feel good about is at the end of

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Speaker 5: the game when you're trying to kill clock and on

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Speaker 5: that drive, the drive to score the touchdown to go ahead,

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Speaker 5: and then the drive to end the game running the football.

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Speaker 5: Is they were able to pound the ball with David Montgomery,

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Speaker 5: and that's something that good teams should be able to do,

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Speaker 5: you know, in the fourth quarter, when you know what's

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Speaker 5: coming and they're still able to execute the way that

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Speaker 5: they did. That's something they should be happy about. They

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Speaker 5: ran behind the left side of the offensive line and

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Speaker 5: they did what they had to do. And then on

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Speaker 5: the flip side in Kansas City, I must have the

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Speaker 5: wrong source here because I got it from a chiefs

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Speaker 5: media personality put it out there, but he tweeted out

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Speaker 5: that Kadarius Tony finished with one receiving yard, one catch

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Speaker 5: for one receiving yard, negative one rushing yards. This guy

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Speaker 5: gave Tony credit for four drops. If ESPN seen the

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Speaker 5: whole team only had four drops, then I don't know

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Speaker 5: what to say, but four drops one of those drops

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Speaker 5: leading to the pick six, and he called it, quote

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Speaker 5: the worst performance any skill player has ever had. And ever,

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Speaker 5: I don't know if that's incorrect. Better that was a

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Speaker 5: bad performance. So and then the other thing, And I

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Speaker 5: know Kadarius Tony's taking a lot of heat, but ESPN

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Speaker 5: has like their advanced catch percentage plus expected, Like, you know,

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Speaker 5: we're kind of really deep in the weeds here, but

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Speaker 5: of their receiving corps, only two guys had a positive

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Speaker 5: catch percentage above expected. Marquez Valdez scantly had a huge

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Speaker 5: one because he had that big catch early on that

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Speaker 5: let that touchdown on the second quarter. Justin Ross had one.

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Speaker 5: I think he only had one catch. I guess they

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Speaker 5: said he had a positive. Everybody else was negative, peaking

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Speaker 5: with Kadarius Tony minus fifty eight point nine percent and

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Speaker 5: Sky Moore minus sixty one point three percent. And this

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Speaker 5: brings me back, I know my way of saying. This

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Speaker 5: is something that we've been talking about for a few

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Speaker 5: weeks now. I mentioned earlier on the pod about Travis

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Speaker 5: Kelsey about him getting hurt, and I think yesterday's podcast

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Speaker 5: is if you're Patrick Mahomes and your Travis Kelce, and

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Speaker 5: I know I'm banging on this drum, but you keep

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Speaker 5: giving team friendly deals even though the sports agent world

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Speaker 5: called the Patrick Mahomes deal the worst NFL history. Travis

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Speaker 5: Kelce goes on record to Vanity Ferris saying that he

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Speaker 5: knows that he's underpaid and sometimes he feels taken advantage of,

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Speaker 5: but you do that for a reason. Right in their eyes,

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Speaker 5: they're doing this so they can have teams the weapons

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Speaker 5: around them, so they can be in the Super Bowl

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Speaker 5: hunt year and a year out, so you can have

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Speaker 5: guys around you while they're taking less money and their

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Speaker 5: best defensive players not there because he's not getting paid

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Speaker 5: what he should get based on the market value. And

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Speaker 5: more specifically, you're taking less money so that if something

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Speaker 5: happens in Travis Kelce, you have a wide receiver corps

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Speaker 5: of guys you can count on. And what we saw

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Speaker 5: last night and Opening Night football is not only is

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Speaker 5: this Chiefs wide receiving corps unproven.

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Speaker 3: It looks like easily the worst.

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Speaker 5: Wide receiver corps in the NFL. The guys are dropping

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Speaker 5: passes left and right. There's no explosiveness outside of you

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Speaker 5: know what schemed open. I don't see these guys winning

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Speaker 5: one on one battles Kansas City. They gotta do something.

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Speaker 1: I know.

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Speaker 5: It's when Travis Kuton is gonning back. It's gonna regulate

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Speaker 5: a lot of things. But they need to be in

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Speaker 5: the market for some kind of trade before the deadline

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Speaker 5: to get another receiver, just not even not even a

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Speaker 5: game breaking receiver, but just someone you can count on

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Speaker 5: in pressure situations because what they have right now obviously

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Speaker 5: is not.

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Speaker 2: It didn't the Rams add obj like at the deadline

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Speaker 2: or was that before the season when.

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Speaker 5: They went I was at the deadline from Cleveland.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's like a good move. So I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I think a lot of people missed this game because

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Speaker 2: they were like, oh, no, Kelsey, no big deal. Like

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Speaker 2: you've been working on a game plan for week one,

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Speaker 2: for weeks, you've been installing stuff, and then three days

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Speaker 2: before the game, your best offensive skill position player goes

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Speaker 2: down and it's like that, that's like no time to

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Speaker 2: completely change the entire program. And it looked like it

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Speaker 2: kind of a dysfunctional team right Like they didn't. It

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Speaker 2: just didn't seem crisp and buttoned up, very unreadlike. And

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Speaker 2: I think that happens because Kelsey was ruled out so

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Speaker 2: quickly and then and then it was like, well, he's

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Speaker 2: gonna give it a go before the game, and I

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Speaker 2: was like, well, wait a second, is he gonna play?

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Speaker 1: Is he not?

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Speaker 2: Like they had to change a lot of things quickly,

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Speaker 2: and they just didn't do a great job. And let's

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Speaker 2: be real, the offensive tackles did not look good. I

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Speaker 2: don't want to go overboard bashing the Chiefs.

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Speaker 3: It is one game. They will be okay. I don't

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Speaker 3: think that Jacksonville game is gonna be a cakewalk.

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Speaker 2: I'm very curious what the lion is. Let's just say

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Speaker 2: Jacksonville beats the Colts, Like, I don't know what are

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs three point.

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Speaker 3: Favorites in Jacksonville three and a half? Are they? I

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Speaker 3: don't know.

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Speaker 2: We'll find out because uh, I don't know that. I

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Speaker 2: think the number could be a little.

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Speaker 3: Shorter than that. Jacksonville is gonna be feisty now.

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Speaker 2: I do want to look at the Lions, because the

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Speaker 2: Lions deserved some props. I got buddies who are Lions fans.

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Speaker 2: I know, imagine that Lions fans and they're texta.

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Speaker 3: Me, get on the bandwagon.

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Speaker 1: Jay.

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Speaker 2: Remember two years ago I tried this, guys, I was

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Speaker 2: all about the Lions and they just, you know, crap

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Speaker 2: their pants and maybe look like a the jackass. I'll

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Speaker 2: quickly point this out. Detroit hosts Seattle next week. That game,

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Speaker 2: if I remember last year, it was super close. Seattle

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Speaker 2: got a close win, I think.

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Speaker 3: Then Detroit hosts Atlanta. Then Detroit goes to Green Bay.

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Speaker 3: Rob are any of these teams tough?

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Speaker 2: Then Detroit Carolina, then Detroit goes to Tampa. You've got

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Speaker 2: to go all the way to week seven to find

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Speaker 2: a real tough game for the Lions given what we

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Speaker 2: just saw. Now again, I'm not saying they're automatically beating Seattle,

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Speaker 2: but like all of a sudden, that's a stealing a

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Speaker 2: win over Kansas City. Like, I think you've got to

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Speaker 2: just based off that alone, all things being equal, health

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Speaker 2: Detroit's a ten win team now, right, Rob, I think

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Speaker 2: that's a fair statement.

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Speaker 5: I mean, but the thing is, do you think they

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Speaker 5: played well against Kansas City? That's what I know that

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Speaker 5: they want, But ultimately, do you think that they played

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Speaker 5: well because I don't. I think Dan Johnson Water was

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Speaker 5: getting too cute. Jared Goff when he was pressured, wasn't

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Speaker 5: you know. I mean that's been his mo for a while.

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Speaker 5: When he's pressured, he's not that great. And outside of

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Speaker 5: Amana Saint Brown, who's awesome, the guys on the outside

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Speaker 5: are very inconsistent.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Well, again, I think the pushback would be, well, it's

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Speaker 2: in Arrowhead against the defending Super Bowl champs. Now, I

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Speaker 2: know the best offensive Jones, yes, all that, but this

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Speaker 2: has to be a huge positive to steal a.

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Speaker 3: Win on the road.

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Speaker 2: And again, I just rattled off some of the schedule, bro,

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Speaker 2: Like there's just not a lot of tough here. They

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Speaker 2: do have a big date with Dallas later in the

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Speaker 2: season that's on Saturday night.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a Saturday Night special. But like, these are

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Speaker 3: the quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: The Detroit Lions go from facing Patrick Mahomes who tried

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Speaker 2: to make chicken shit out of chicken whatever they had yesterday,

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Speaker 2: whatever they had to gate. So they're facing I forget

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Speaker 2: this thing. So they're facing Geno Smith, Desmond Ritter, Jordan Love,

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Speaker 2: Bryce Young, Baker Mayfield.

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Speaker 3: Those are the next six quarterbacks are facing.

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Speaker 5: Rob not exactly murderers Roe.

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Speaker 3: I'm sorry.

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Speaker 2: Those are the next five quarterbacks are facing before Lamar Jackson.

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Speaker 2: And then it's your boy Jimmy g and then it's

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Speaker 2: you know, Herbert and Fields and but like there's a

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Speaker 2: window here where the Lions suddenly they are like five

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Speaker 2: and oh, I think and again it is one week.

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Speaker 2: Don't want to overreact, but I don't know, man, you

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Speaker 2: go for fasik, Patrick Mahomes, like Bryce Young, nervous about

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Speaker 2: Bryce Young. See how many receivers are out for Carolina

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Speaker 2: this week. Anyways, they're in the best bet without further ado,

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Speaker 2: Let's get to our guest, David Baker, professional gambler, professional

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Speaker 2: poker player.

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Speaker 1: You know a guy Jason likes to think he knows

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Speaker 1: everything when it comes to sports.

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Speaker 2: I know what sports fans want.

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Speaker 1: But for everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does.

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Speaker 2: Let's just say I know a guy who knows a

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Speaker 2: guy who knows another guy.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's welcome into straight fire.

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Speaker 2: A guy who's been on the pot a few times

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Speaker 2: over the last few years.

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Speaker 3: Great gambler.

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Speaker 2: He's dominated those Vegas contests that I so badly want

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Speaker 2: to win.

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Speaker 3: David Baker, How are.

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Speaker 4: You, Dave? I'm great.

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Speaker 6: Thanks for having me here. I'm excited to join you.

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Speaker 6: Always one of my favorite podcasts to do every year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, thank you very much every year Week one

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Speaker 2: we got we got to have you on because you

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Speaker 2: just crushed the contest. First of all, let's ask are

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Speaker 2: you doing just the Circa?

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Speaker 3: Are you doing the Survivor?

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Speaker 2: How many big money Vegas contests have you entered the season?

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00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:16,480
Speaker 6: Me and my partner Mark greg Rich, we maxed out

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Speaker 6: the Survivor, which is ten each.

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Speaker 4: She did ten, I did ten, and then we.

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Speaker 6: Did we were in the contest of you know, the

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Speaker 6: pick them contest at Survivor, have a few entries there,

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Speaker 6: and have a few entries at the Westgates Super Contest

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Speaker 6: Circus kind of the big boy in town. But we

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Speaker 6: won Westgates, so we have a little affinity towards Westgate.

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Speaker 2: Humor, the audience, the survivor. You have ten entries each.

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Speaker 2: It's a thousand to enter the circus contest, the season

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Speaker 2: long one. How much is it to enter the Survivor contest?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, there are a thousand each.

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Speaker 3: You know, this is a this is who we is guys.

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Speaker 6: Look, I mean, the fact of the matter is there's

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Speaker 6: not many things out there that you've got a chance

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Speaker 6: to win eight million or six million or whatever it is,

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Speaker 6: So sometimes you got to fire your shot. I actually

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Speaker 6: have friends who have conglomerates who have like more and whatever.

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Speaker 6: But you know, we try to be somewhat responsible. I

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Speaker 6: know twenty might sound like a lot, but it's really not.

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Speaker 6: I'm you know, there's in reality, those contests are filled

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Speaker 6: with groups who have you know, a lot more, But

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Speaker 6: that doesn't really mean you don't really need that many

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Speaker 6: entries to win. I mean, I think a majority of

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Speaker 6: the ones who have won have had like just a

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Speaker 6: few entries or maybe one or whatever. So look, the

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Speaker 6: paths are hard, and we do something a little bit

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Speaker 6: different than some guys. Some guys choose a path where

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Speaker 6: they'll just you know, diversify and always lose like a

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Speaker 6: team a week or whatever because they have so many

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Speaker 6: different ones. We pretty much just kind of go all

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Speaker 6: in on a couple teams each week and try to

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Speaker 6: get as many entries as as possible.

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Speaker 4: We had a shot a few years ago.

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Speaker 6: Last year we had ten entries and we were out

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00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:07,560
Speaker 6: week one, so you know.

440
00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:11,560
Speaker 3: Whoa goes see. So last year I'll never forget I do.

441
00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:13,400
Speaker 2: I was doing an online one and I'm like one

442
00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:15,960
Speaker 2: of the final twelve people, and I look and it

443
00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:18,000
Speaker 2: said I think I had two entries in this one,

444
00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:19,920
Speaker 2: and it looking at it was like, you know, Joe

445
00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:22,960
Speaker 2: Bob sports Dash seven and I was like, this guy's

446
00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:24,040
Speaker 2: got seven entries.

447
00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:24,840
Speaker 3: I've got no chance.

448
00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:27,040
Speaker 2: Again, it's just simply a numbers give so humor me.

449
00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:29,760
Speaker 2: Let's talk about Week one survivor from my point of view,

450
00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:30,760
Speaker 2: and I'm in several of them.

451
00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:34,040
Speaker 3: It is Baltimore, which.

452
00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:35,919
Speaker 2: Is as of currently nine and a half point favorite

453
00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:40,640
Speaker 2: against Houston rookie quarterback in Houston and in Baltimore and

454
00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:45,199
Speaker 2: Washington a seven point favorite over Arizona at home. I

455
00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:48,040
Speaker 2: don't think I can look anywhere else besides those two.

456
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:51,880
Speaker 2: But is there a game I'm perhaps overlooking that you

457
00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:54,560
Speaker 2: see some value in, maybe Minnesota, Tampa?

458
00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:55,239
Speaker 3: I don't know.

459
00:21:56,680 --> 00:21:59,439
Speaker 6: So there's a couple different ways to attack Survivor, the

460
00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:02,240
Speaker 6: first one being you can just play what you think

461
00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:04,560
Speaker 6: is the best play and just try to get your

462
00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:08,280
Speaker 6: teams through. The other one is trying to leverage the

463
00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:10,240
Speaker 6: fact that a lot of people will be on one

464
00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:13,280
Speaker 6: side versus the other. I mean, clearly the best pick

465
00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:19,119
Speaker 6: this week is Baltimore from pure who's more likely to

466
00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:22,760
Speaker 6: win this week, and Washington would be second just based

467
00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 6: on the point spread.

468
00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:24,919
Speaker 4: But you also have to.

469
00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:27,320
Speaker 6: Look at the fact of you know, how much more

470
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:31,400
Speaker 6: likely is it that Washington wins than say Seattle, where

471
00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:34,920
Speaker 6: Seattle might have three percent of the entries and Washington

472
00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:38,199
Speaker 6: might have forty percent of the entries, So you know,

473
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:42,479
Speaker 6: if they're both like eighty percent to win, you know,

474
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:45,080
Speaker 6: you're basically leveraging your spot.

475
00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:47,320
Speaker 4: Whereas if one.

476
00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:48,680
Speaker 6: Of them is going to lose one out of five

477
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:50,960
Speaker 6: times and it's just kind of random which one it is,

478
00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:53,679
Speaker 6: if Washington is the team that loses all of a sudden,

479
00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:57,160
Speaker 6: you're in a survivor with forty percent of the people gone.

480
00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:00,320
Speaker 6: Whereas if you play Washington and Seattle loses, you're in

481
00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:03,119
Speaker 6: a survivor pool that is ninety seven percent of the

482
00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:05,679
Speaker 6: people left. So there's a lot of different ways that

483
00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:09,080
Speaker 6: you can do it. I mean, from my standpoint, we

484
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:14,280
Speaker 6: my partner and I were discussing it today and Baltimore

485
00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:16,400
Speaker 6: is one hundred percent not going to be our play,

486
00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:20,200
Speaker 6: that's for sure, not because of what. Yeah, well, they're

487
00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:23,240
Speaker 6: just going to be popular and right there are a

488
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:26,440
Speaker 6: lot of other spots to use Baltimore, and to win

489
00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:28,640
Speaker 6: this thing, you're gonna have to take some chances. So

490
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:31,359
Speaker 6: we're not definitely not going to take Baltimore because they

491
00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:33,120
Speaker 6: have other games throughout the year.

492
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 4: We would rather keep them.

493
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,560
Speaker 6: So our real art thought process is do we want

494
00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 6: Washington and lean into the chalk, which is I think

495
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:43,720
Speaker 6: going to be pretty heavily played because there's no spot

496
00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:47,840
Speaker 6: other on the entire car in the entire season that

497
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:50,880
Speaker 6: Washington's a good play. So you can lean into Washington

498
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:54,880
Speaker 6: and just accept the ownership, or you can fade them

499
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:57,879
Speaker 6: and just think Hey, it's Sam Howell, it's you know,

500
00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:01,119
Speaker 6: banged up Terry McLaurin, and who knows what we're going

501
00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:02,919
Speaker 6: to get out of this cardinal seam. I mean, everybody

502
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:05,359
Speaker 6: thinks they stink, which they probably do, but this is

503
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:08,159
Speaker 6: the NFL, and I mean whatever. I mean, they have

504
00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:11,600
Speaker 6: athletes too, and it's not like Washington's, you know, so

505
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:14,120
Speaker 6: if you want to avoid them, I think the best

506
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:18,439
Speaker 6: most logical spots to look our Minnesota in Seattle, just

507
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 6: because they're at home, they're playing four teams. So the

508
00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:26,480
Speaker 6: other spot that we're kind of thinking is maybe get

509
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:29,119
Speaker 6: a little outside the box and use Atlanta. Atlanta as

510
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:31,280
Speaker 6: a three and a half point favorite at home against Carolina.

511
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:33,520
Speaker 6: Neither of us really believe that much of Bryce Young,

512
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:36,399
Speaker 6: so kind of get a mediocre team out of the

513
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:40,440
Speaker 6: way in Atlanta and a spot where if Washington bus

514
00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:43,240
Speaker 6: then we could jump the you know a lot of people.

515
00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 6: I think we're ultimately going to lean into Washington just

516
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:49,600
Speaker 6: because in Circa, which is where our survivors are, you've

517
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:51,879
Speaker 6: got to win twenty games, which means you have to

518
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:54,720
Speaker 6: have twenty teams, and at the end of the day,

519
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:57,040
Speaker 6: Washington's going to be one of the top twenty teams

520
00:24:57,040 --> 00:24:59,479
Speaker 6: most likely, so we're probably gonna have to use them

521
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:02,119
Speaker 6: at some point, and kind of feels like there's no

522
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:06,240
Speaker 6: better spots, so I'm not sure, though we haven't fully committed.

523
00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:10,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, my only concern is the divisional dog aspect in

524
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,359
Speaker 2: that Atlanta game and in the Seattle Rams one. I

525
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:16,879
Speaker 2: know Cooper cups out, but like the divisional dogs I

526
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:19,440
Speaker 2: think are something like seventy four percent in Week one

527
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:21,720
Speaker 2: over the like the last like ten years. And I

528
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:23,960
Speaker 2: know it's just one data point, it's a trend. Who cares,

529
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:26,439
Speaker 2: but it's just something. I remember last year wasn't there

530
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:29,080
Speaker 2: didn't everybody load up on the Jags and they ended

531
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:31,159
Speaker 2: up losing the Colts or something, and it was like

532
00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:32,720
Speaker 2: everybody got wiped out.

533
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:33,880
Speaker 3: I did not get wiped out.

534
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:36,360
Speaker 4: I mean I didn't have that one. We did get

535
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:36,840
Speaker 4: wiped out.

536
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 6: We spread our entries last year on Cincinnati against Pittsburgh,

537
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:45,560
Speaker 6: which matches your division your thought process right there with

538
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 6: the divisional dog, and we lost that one. And we

539
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:51,200
Speaker 6: also had the Niners and Trey Lance and the Monsoon

540
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 6: against the Bears. So those those were our two games

541
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 6: that took us out. We were you know, but that's

542
00:25:56,760 --> 00:26:01,679
Speaker 6: why it's sometimes beneficial just to just to fade the chalk.

543
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 6: And if you would have faded those three games, which

544
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:07,879
Speaker 6: were the three most popular games, I think Indianapolis was

545
00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 6: for sure the most popular game, and we faded that

546
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:13,600
Speaker 6: one correctly, but we didn't land on the right alternative.

547
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:16,520
Speaker 4: Look, if you want to win Survivor.

548
00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 6: There, yeah, if you have a lot of entries, you know,

549
00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:23,680
Speaker 6: I do have a friend who does.

550
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:25,960
Speaker 4: He's part of like a big syndicate.

551
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 6: And he has a lot of entries and he's like

552
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:29,840
Speaker 6: takes pieces of a lot of different things and loves

553
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:32,399
Speaker 6: to just gamble big on Survivor. He thinks it's the

554
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:35,960
Speaker 6: most fun sweat of the season, and he really they

555
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 6: really spread it around and he always gets a team

556
00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:41,720
Speaker 6: or two near the end. We're not really like that,

557
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:44,679
Speaker 6: my partner and I we if we get there, we

558
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:47,000
Speaker 6: want to be able to diversify come week five or

559
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:48,960
Speaker 6: week six, So we're not going to put all the

560
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:52,240
Speaker 6: entries on one, but we really try to hone in

561
00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 6: on the couple that we think are the best. So

562
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 6: when somebody does lose, you're not losing any of your

563
00:26:56,960 --> 00:27:01,320
Speaker 6: entries too. So that's kind of of our philosophy on it,

564
00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 6: but you definitely have to look at the schedule out.

565
00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:07,200
Speaker 3: I got bounced last year.

566
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 2: I had Patriots on Monday Night Football against the Bears,

567
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:12,520
Speaker 2: and I was I think the Bailey Zappie game, and

568
00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:14,080
Speaker 2: I was just stunned and I was like one of

569
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 2: the last guys standing. This was like late in the season.

570
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:17,679
Speaker 2: I was just befuddled.

571
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 3: It sucked. It was painful. Anyways, Oh, let's get to

572
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:22,159
Speaker 3: Week one. Let's start with this, David.

573
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:25,840
Speaker 2: Is there a game on Sunday or Monday that jumps

574
00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:28,119
Speaker 2: out at you as one where you find you have

575
00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:30,440
Speaker 2: an edge or that's a game you absolutely love and

576
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:31,240
Speaker 2: you want to get a piece of.

577
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:37,119
Speaker 4: Well, I haven't really dove into Week one yet. I

578
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:39,000
Speaker 4: just really want a lot of the news to settle out.

579
00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 4: But I will say that I'm most likely going to

580
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 4: be on Seattle.

581
00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:44,800
Speaker 6: I know that you have the divisional dog thing, but

582
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:48,479
Speaker 6: in my opinion, Seattle is one of these teams that

583
00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 6: I really love for this year, and I'm going to

584
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:53,800
Speaker 6: be on them a lot this year, one of my

585
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:56,680
Speaker 6: favorite teams. I actually think that they have a very

586
00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:59,639
Speaker 6: good chance to unseat the Niners. I think that's pretty

587
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:02,159
Speaker 6: much a coin flip between the two of them, and

588
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:05,199
Speaker 6: you're getting like plus two fifty or two seventy or

589
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:08,760
Speaker 6: something on the Seahawks to win that division. So I

590
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:11,439
Speaker 6: like the Seahawks and I want to take advantage before

591
00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:13,600
Speaker 6: the rest of the world kind of wakes up on them.

592
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:17,600
Speaker 6: And I'm really out on this Rams team. I know

593
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:22,600
Speaker 6: Stafford's back, but with no Cup and a very bad

594
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:26,879
Speaker 6: offensive line and maybe in a historically bad defense, I

595
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 6: don't think many of these guys other than Aaron Donald

596
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:31,760
Speaker 6: on this defense would even start on many of the

597
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:35,240
Speaker 6: other teams in the NFL. So I really think that

598
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 6: the Seattle passing game, they really are, are very good

599
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 6: across the board on offense. They can run the football,

600
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:47,520
Speaker 6: they can pass the football, they have a great home

601
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 6: field advantage.

602
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 4: No Cooper Cup, I mean this team, this.

603
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:56,520
Speaker 6: Season's already started so poorly for the Rams, I really

604
00:28:56,560 --> 00:29:00,480
Speaker 6: feel like they're going to be an early tank team,

605
00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:03,120
Speaker 6: and I think they should. Honestly, I think it's it's

606
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:05,080
Speaker 6: time for them to move on. They sold their soul

607
00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 6: to win the Super Bowl and that's fine, but at

608
00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:11,680
Speaker 6: the end of the day, this team's not going anywhere

609
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 6: with an aging Matthew Stafford.

610
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:14,480
Speaker 4: You know, Caleb.

611
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:16,680
Speaker 6: Williams wants to stay in LA. I mean, he's an

612
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:19,440
Speaker 6: LA type guy. He's got the all the charisma, he's

613
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 6: got all the flash, and they and they can kind

614
00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:25,160
Speaker 6: of control their own destiny if they managed to thank

615
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:29,240
Speaker 6: enough early, they can control their own destiny versus the Cardinals.

616
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 6: So I do kind of think that the Rams are

617
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 6: kind of a long shot team, or you know, kind

618
00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 6: of if you want to put something out.

619
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:39,800
Speaker 4: There, maybe best record or I mean worst record. So

620
00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:41,480
Speaker 4: that's kind of what I'm thinking.

621
00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:43,520
Speaker 6: I like Seattle a lot, I think as far as

622
00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:48,080
Speaker 6: an underdog, I'm I'm still out on Russ Wilson if

623
00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:50,440
Speaker 6: you remember, you know last year I was out on him.

624
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 4: I'm out on the Broncos. I'm out on Russ Wilson.

625
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 4: And I think the I think the Raiders can keep

626
00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 4: it close. I mean, I love Sean Payton.

627
00:29:57,800 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 6: We all love Sean Payton, but at the end of

628
00:29:59,920 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 6: the the day, let's not act like he's, you know,

629
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:05,240
Speaker 6: incapable of losing games. I mean, this last few years

630
00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:07,240
Speaker 6: in New Orleans with a pretty good squad, he was

631
00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:10,200
Speaker 6: kind of, you know, middle of the pack, and so

632
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:13,000
Speaker 6: I mean, yeah, it's great, and I'm sure he'll build

633
00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:15,720
Speaker 6: a winner their long term, but their wide receiver Cord

634
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:17,800
Speaker 6: has all types of injuries. We don't know what we're

635
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:20,640
Speaker 6: getting out of Javonte Williams, which obviously running backs don't

636
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:23,040
Speaker 6: matter that much. But the end of the day, I

637
00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:26,240
Speaker 6: feel like the Raiders have a puncher's chance. I don't

638
00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:28,240
Speaker 6: think this is going to be a real high scoring game,

639
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 6: so getting over a field goal kind of lean towards

640
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:32,400
Speaker 6: towards them as well.

641
00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:35,520
Speaker 2: Interesting, what do you make of one of these syndicates

642
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 2: right angle sports? They hit Washington pushing in I think

643
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:41,560
Speaker 2: from like five and a half or six to seven,

644
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 2: and it may go up more as we get closer

645
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 2: to kickoff. If it's true, the Clayton Thuney or whatever

646
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 2: his name is is the starter. You know, I know

647
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 2: you don't put a ton of stock into into that

648
00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:54,720
Speaker 2: kind of thing, but you know, Jonathan Gannon, new coach,

649
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:58,360
Speaker 2: no quarterback, but Gannon was the defensive coordinator of the

650
00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 2: Eagles who faced Eric the enemy's offense. Although is Andy

651
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:04,240
Speaker 2: Reid's offense in the Super Bowl. Obviously, Sam Howell is

652
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 2: not Patrick Mahomes, But like the familiarity, do you give

653
00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 2: an edge there at all to Gannon or perhaps be enemy. Hey,

654
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:13,280
Speaker 2: we know what this guy likes to do, we know

655
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:16,760
Speaker 2: his tendencies. We abused him in the second half. I

656
00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:19,360
Speaker 2: don't like big favorites, but I think on my card

657
00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:21,520
Speaker 2: for the circuit contest, I'm probably gonna be on Washington.

658
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 6: Well, I think you're just dealing with too many unknowns

659
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 6: in this football game. I mean, yes, you know, we

660
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 6: want to believe that Sam Howe's taking the next step. Yes,

661
00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 6: we want to believe that the Cardinals are the worst

662
00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:36,480
Speaker 6: team in the worst franchise.

663
00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:39,080
Speaker 4: We want to believe that Gannon and his corny.

664
00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:42,800
Speaker 6: Pump you up speeches, you know, translate onto the field.

665
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:44,440
Speaker 6: But the end of the day, we really don't know

666
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:46,720
Speaker 6: what we're getting with this Cardinals team. We really have

667
00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:50,200
Speaker 6: no idea. I mean, Nick Sirianni gave one of the

668
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:53,640
Speaker 6: worst opening press conferences in the history of football. When

669
00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:55,960
Speaker 6: he took that job with the Eagles, everybody thought he

670
00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:58,960
Speaker 6: was doomed to fail. Dan Campbell same thing. We all

671
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 6: made fun of his by your knee caps off. We

672
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 6: don't really know what we're getting with a lot of

673
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 6: these coaches. They're coordinators, and we want to think like

674
00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:10,800
Speaker 6: that they're either really good or really bad. But you

675
00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:13,960
Speaker 6: don't really know how these guys are gonna command a

676
00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:17,320
Speaker 6: locker room. You know, who's on their staff and whatnot.

677
00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:20,800
Speaker 6: So this really isn't a game that I'm gonna lean into.

678
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:23,959
Speaker 6: I mean, like we talked earlier Washington for survivor just

679
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 6: because of their lack of options later in the season.

680
00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:30,760
Speaker 6: I think is attractive, but I'm not really looking into it.

681
00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 6: Wouldn't surprise me anything happened if the Cardinals came out spirited.

682
00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:37,160
Speaker 6: They're you know, all this bowl about them being the

683
00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:38,560
Speaker 6: worst team and all that, but.

684
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:43,800
Speaker 2: Interesting, I do. I do have a question about another

685
00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:47,880
Speaker 2: divisional matchup. Divisional dogs at home are golden week one.

686
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:50,560
Speaker 2: I think a guest this week TA had it something

687
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 2: like twenty one and five maybe in Week one, some

688
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:55,680
Speaker 2: obscene number. I have to go back and listen to it.

689
00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:57,959
Speaker 2: But the Cleveland Browns fit that description and they're at

690
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:01,120
Speaker 2: home against the Bengals. There's also the angle of teams

691
00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:03,480
Speaker 2: that did not make the playoffs don't get bed in

692
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:06,160
Speaker 2: Week one like teams that did make the playoffs. Bengals

693
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:08,840
Speaker 2: made it, Browns didn't. So it feels like the public's

694
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 2: gonna hammer the Bengals. Yet we're seeing a two and

695
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 2: a half, meaning they know the books can't put it

696
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:17,760
Speaker 2: at three because the buyback will be massive. It feels

697
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:20,239
Speaker 2: like this is a spot for Cleveland. They're four and

698
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:22,120
Speaker 2: one against Burrow. I know that doesn't mean a lot.

699
00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:25,000
Speaker 2: I think I'm gonna be on Cleveland in the contest.

700
00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:26,160
Speaker 3: Are you where are you? On that one?

701
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:31,240
Speaker 6: I would definitely leave lean Cleveland. I do like Cincinnati's

702
00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:34,080
Speaker 6: chances long term to win this division, although I think

703
00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 6: it is by far the toughest division in football. But

704
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:40,720
Speaker 6: I really like this Cleveland team too. The one thing

705
00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:45,200
Speaker 6: you can just count on is line play. That's really,

706
00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 6: you know, you don't have to worry about like a

707
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:50,000
Speaker 6: lot of the things with that, and Cleveland's got really

708
00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:55,240
Speaker 6: good line play. Burrow obviously is coming off injury, which

709
00:33:55,760 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 6: the guy's superman, so I'm not really that worried about it.

710
00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 6: I'm sure he's going to be fine. I feel like

711
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:03,200
Speaker 6: I agree with you on this one. I think Cleveland's

712
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:05,960
Speaker 6: might play. If I'm going to play the game, but

713
00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:09,920
Speaker 6: you know, divisional game under a field goal, it wouldn't

714
00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 6: surprise me to go either way.

715
00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:14,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I got to ask about my Jets David

716
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:17,640
Speaker 2: Jets Bills. I think it's the best game of Week one.

717
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:20,280
Speaker 2: I don't want to overhype it, but if the Jets

718
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 2: go down and their offensive line gets just besieged, they

719
00:34:23,200 --> 00:34:25,920
Speaker 2: then have to go to Dallas short week to face

720
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:29,719
Speaker 2: Michael Parsons and a nasty defensive front, it could be

721
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 2: doomed for the Jets. I think they're going to beat

722
00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:35,279
Speaker 2: the Bills in Week one, and the line's kind of pinged.

723
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:36,799
Speaker 2: It came down to one now I see it back

724
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:39,960
Speaker 2: up to two. Your thoughts on Jets Bills Monday? Probably

725
00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:40,719
Speaker 2: not a contest.

726
00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:43,920
Speaker 6: Play for me though, Yeah, not a contest play for

727
00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:46,640
Speaker 6: me for sure. But iileen Bills. I think the Bill,

728
00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:51,719
Speaker 6: the continuity on the Bills is just very strong. Josh

729
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:55,960
Speaker 6: Allen has finally recovered from his all his nagging injuries

730
00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:59,640
Speaker 6: last year. I think teams, I think the public just

731
00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:02,759
Speaker 6: kind of sours on teams when they don't get it done.

732
00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:04,400
Speaker 6: I think people are kind of sleeping on the Bills

733
00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:06,120
Speaker 6: a little bit. They're just kind of tired, you know.

734
00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:08,879
Speaker 6: They were the preseason favors last year, didn't get it done.

735
00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:10,560
Speaker 6: They had a chance of the year before they were

736
00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:12,759
Speaker 6: the Darlings, couldn't get it done. I think people are

737
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:14,719
Speaker 6: just kind of off them, and the Jets are kind

738
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:17,160
Speaker 6: of the Darlings. I do worry about that offensive line.

739
00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 6: The Bills defense is very good. I think that there

740
00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:25,880
Speaker 6: is a lot of I don't know, Josh Allen's just

741
00:35:25,880 --> 00:35:27,759
Speaker 6: that kind of guy I want to walk through fire for.

742
00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 6: And I can't imagine them, you know, getting all hyped

743
00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 6: up for this. Really this Jets team that's gotten all

744
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:39,240
Speaker 6: the publicity, and the Jets are going to take this division,

745
00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:42,520
Speaker 6: and Aaron Rodgers came here because you know, this division's winnable.

746
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:44,880
Speaker 6: And the Dolphins, and you know, if you don't like

747
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:47,080
Speaker 6: the Jets, you like the Dolphin. Nobody's really talking about

748
00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:50,880
Speaker 6: the Bills. I feel like they're kind of under the radar,

749
00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:54,200
Speaker 6: really good team. So I kind of lean towards the

750
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:57,400
Speaker 6: Bills in this one, but not a real strong opinion,

751
00:35:57,400 --> 00:35:58,839
Speaker 6: because I do think it's going to be a good game.

752
00:35:58,880 --> 00:36:01,080
Speaker 4: I mean, the Jets aren't impressive, all right.

753
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:06,480
Speaker 2: David Baker obviously follow him on social media. He's winning contests.

754
00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:09,719
Speaker 2: He's a legendary poker player. And we'll bring you on

755
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:14,240
Speaker 2: mid season to see how everything's going. David, enjoy opening

756
00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:15,480
Speaker 2: weekend and we'll talk to you soon.

757
00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:20,320
Speaker 1: The only thing better than sitting on your couch watching

758
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:24,560
Speaker 1: the games. He's making money while he's do it. Here's

759
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:25,920
Speaker 1: your best bet.

760
00:36:26,719 --> 00:36:29,839
Speaker 2: Great great stuff from David Baker. He is the man.

761
00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:34,279
Speaker 2: Love his predictions and analysis and the way he breaks

762
00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:36,400
Speaker 2: things down. A big fan of his work. Don't agree

763
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 2: with him on everything in week one? All right, so

764
00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:43,000
Speaker 2: we had some success with the best bet on the

765
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:46,880
Speaker 2: Lions Chiefs. I said thirty one thirty day one, twenty

766
00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:51,600
Speaker 2: one twenty. I'll take it. The money line two forty

767
00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 2: three is a nice little victory to start the season.

768
00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:57,840
Speaker 2: That being said, it's a long season. It could be

769
00:36:57,840 --> 00:37:00,000
Speaker 2: a long opening weekend. Let's pest pace ourself.

770
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:00,520
Speaker 3: Okay.

771
00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:04,319
Speaker 2: I will go over bets that I've already made, and

772
00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:07,719
Speaker 2: then I will go over my likely picks in the contest.

773
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:10,520
Speaker 2: We will start with the Browns. If you had missed

774
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:12,800
Speaker 2: the TA interview, he broke down why I got Browns

775
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 2: two and a half when he's after he was on

776
00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:17,200
Speaker 2: the pod, I listened to him and I looked into

777
00:37:17,239 --> 00:37:21,400
Speaker 2: all this Jim Schwartz stuff that he talked about. I

778
00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:23,080
Speaker 2: think the Browns can win this outright, So I have

779
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:25,560
Speaker 2: a little money line. It's at two now, I think

780
00:37:25,560 --> 00:37:27,120
Speaker 2: you could take it. I think it's going to continue

781
00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:28,920
Speaker 2: to go down. I think the Browns will decide. I

782
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:33,360
Speaker 2: read a really interesting piece this guy, Jeff Fogel. I

783
00:37:33,400 --> 00:37:34,920
Speaker 2: don't know if you guys follow him. I only heard

784
00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:37,360
Speaker 2: about him last year, apparently longtime Vegas guy, and he

785
00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:39,560
Speaker 2: was putting stuff on Twitter. Then he started a substack.

786
00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:43,360
Speaker 2: I don't I'm not advocating going spending money on a substack,

787
00:37:43,400 --> 00:37:45,560
Speaker 2: but I read a couple of things from him and

788
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:47,880
Speaker 2: I liked it, so I subscribed. And he had a

789
00:37:47,880 --> 00:37:50,760
Speaker 2: good breakdown of what the two and a half meant.

790
00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:52,799
Speaker 2: Now we all know when the line's two and a half,

791
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:54,320
Speaker 2: the books don't want to go to three. But he

792
00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:58,680
Speaker 2: had a really extensive breakdown on why, and it basically

793
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:03,160
Speaker 2: means the shark money likes the underdog when it's at

794
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:04,919
Speaker 2: two and a half. If it doesn't go to three,

795
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:07,040
Speaker 2: that's because the sharps are waiting, waiting to come the

796
00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:09,840
Speaker 2: other way. I think there's two games this weekend that

797
00:38:09,920 --> 00:38:13,920
Speaker 2: exemplify that. The Cleveland Browns two now it's two and

798
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 2: a half now, thatine or two, and the other is

799
00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:17,120
Speaker 2: the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now I've hyped the Steelers. I got

800
00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:18,920
Speaker 2: them at three. I'm fine with them at two and

801
00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:21,080
Speaker 2: a half. I'm all in on the Steelers. They will

802
00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:23,319
Speaker 2: one hundred percent be a contest play. The Browns are

803
00:38:23,360 --> 00:38:25,440
Speaker 2: like ninety five percent of contest play. I'll see on

804
00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:27,600
Speaker 2: Denzel Ward and probably maybe get spooked at the end.

805
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 2: But Pittsburgh I think was my favorite side of the

806
00:38:30,239 --> 00:38:35,160
Speaker 2: weekend for a long time. I'm pot committed. I am,

807
00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:41,280
Speaker 2: and I kind of regret these two favorites. But Washington.

808
00:38:42,360 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 2: Remember Adam Turnoff came on the pod. He's at Right

809
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:48,520
Speaker 2: Angle Sports. Right Angle Sports had Washington at six, so

810
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:51,359
Speaker 2: I grabbed it. It's now at seven. I don't hate

811
00:38:51,400 --> 00:38:53,680
Speaker 2: it at seven. Now Ta's on the other side. He

812
00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:56,160
Speaker 2: has a connection in Arizona and feels like they're going

813
00:38:56,239 --> 00:38:58,920
Speaker 2: to be competitive. I just you look at that offensive

814
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:01,240
Speaker 2: line for Arizona. I think they're starting a rookie at center,

815
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:03,759
Speaker 2: and it's not like a first round pickrookie. They got

816
00:39:03,760 --> 00:39:06,840
Speaker 2: a rookie at tackle, and you've got Josh Dobbs running

817
00:39:06,840 --> 00:39:09,680
Speaker 2: for his life against a really, really good Washington front

818
00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:13,720
Speaker 2: I don't see Arizona having much success. Now, maybe Sam

819
00:39:13,719 --> 00:39:17,279
Speaker 2: Howell vomits all over himself, urinates down his leg, and

820
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:19,560
Speaker 2: Washington is a disaster and they just keep handing the

821
00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:22,320
Speaker 2: ball over in Arizona hangs around. I don't see that happening.

822
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 2: I think the stadium's gonna be juiced up with Daniel

823
00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:29,080
Speaker 2: Snyder out. I believe Washington wins handily. Don't know about

824
00:39:29,120 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 2: him in a contest, though, I don't mind. Obviously I

825
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:34,359
Speaker 2: have six. I don't mind seven either. Now the other

826
00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:38,759
Speaker 2: side that I have is Denver, and there is a

827
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:40,600
Speaker 2: lot of Jason. Wait a minute, you've been talking all

828
00:39:40,640 --> 00:39:44,240
Speaker 2: the time about divisional dogs. Correct, Denver's at home. Denver

829
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:47,880
Speaker 2: has a considerable advantage at home. There is some stuff

830
00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:50,360
Speaker 2: going on with the Raiders. I don't understand the Chandler

831
00:39:50,440 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 2: Jones like being locked out of the facility. It sounds

832
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:57,440
Speaker 2: like it's kind of ugly. I think Sirtan on Devonte Adams.

833
00:39:57,440 --> 00:39:59,759
Speaker 2: Sirtan will want revenge. Javonte got him lastter good by

834
00:39:59,800 --> 00:40:02,160
Speaker 2: the way. Oh wait, dear a Carr like had an

835
00:40:02,239 --> 00:40:04,840
Speaker 2: armed Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't and look at it in San Francisco,

836
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:08,600
Speaker 2: last year, Jimmy Garoppolo can't throw the ball deep and outside,

837
00:40:09,440 --> 00:40:11,799
Speaker 2: which is, by the way, the pattern that Adams ran

838
00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:14,240
Speaker 2: to beat Sirtan on a pass from car.

839
00:40:15,920 --> 00:40:17,279
Speaker 3: Jimmy Garoppolo can't make that throw.

840
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:19,839
Speaker 2: When Brock Purdy came in for him last year, brock

841
00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:23,239
Speaker 2: Purdy had the longest air throw. I think it was

842
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:25,520
Speaker 2: like two weeks in and that was after Garoppolo had

843
00:40:25,520 --> 00:40:28,000
Speaker 2: been the quarterback for several weeks. It was unbelievable, Like

844
00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:30,640
Speaker 2: basically they were saying Garoppolo couldn't make certain throws deep,

845
00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:34,440
Speaker 2: Brock Purty can. So what's gonna happen when this Denver front,

846
00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:35,680
Speaker 2: which is improved and better.

847
00:40:36,520 --> 00:40:36,959
Speaker 3: It's early.

848
00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:39,759
Speaker 2: Let's think Randy Gregory will be okay to play. He's

849
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:43,759
Speaker 2: always hurt. I do believe this Denver team kind of

850
00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:46,640
Speaker 2: opens a can. Here Sean Payton, I excited it on her.

851
00:40:46,719 --> 00:40:50,640
Speaker 2: Do you remember when Tom Brady was the Bucks the

852
00:40:50,760 --> 00:40:53,239
Speaker 2: first time his start in the opening season, goes to

853
00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:56,040
Speaker 2: Tampa and they go to New Orleans and everybody and

854
00:40:56,080 --> 00:41:00,640
Speaker 2: their mom was on the Bucks. Everybody and Saints kicked

855
00:41:00,640 --> 00:41:03,359
Speaker 2: their ass. I mean, and Peyton, I'm just saying he's

856
00:41:03,400 --> 00:41:05,840
Speaker 2: a really good coach. I don't pretend to know him closely.

857
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:07,400
Speaker 2: I did and go out to dinner with him, But

858
00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:09,120
Speaker 2: the guy was on the set like every week, and

859
00:41:09,160 --> 00:41:11,480
Speaker 2: I'm just telling you, during commercial breaks, he would instantly

860
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:13,799
Speaker 2: go back to all these motivational techniques that he would

861
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:17,839
Speaker 2: do and employ. He's really good. I'm rooting for him.

862
00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:22,240
Speaker 2: So I am a sneaky closeted Denver Broncos fan this season,

863
00:41:22,560 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 2: and I'm gonna be on him this week they're at

864
00:41:24,520 --> 00:41:27,960
Speaker 2: home at altitude. I'm gonna like him in week two

865
00:41:27,960 --> 00:41:32,080
Speaker 2: as well. My only concern is if they handle the Raiders.

866
00:41:32,080 --> 00:41:35,120
Speaker 2: I know this divisional could be close. Let's say this

867
00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:37,880
Speaker 2: is twenty four to ten Broncos and at the defense

868
00:41:37,960 --> 00:41:39,840
Speaker 2: is great and Russell Wilson looks like his old self.

869
00:41:41,440 --> 00:41:43,400
Speaker 2: I think you're gonna get an inflated number for Denver

870
00:41:43,440 --> 00:41:47,000
Speaker 2: next week. So I'm gonna jump on the Denver bandwagon. Now.

871
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:49,600
Speaker 2: Don't know if I'm taking them in the contest, but

872
00:41:49,680 --> 00:41:52,520
Speaker 2: I have bet them minus four a couple totals. I

873
00:41:52,520 --> 00:41:55,439
Speaker 2: have under forty for Atlanta Carolina. If you couldn't tell

874
00:41:56,320 --> 00:41:58,920
Speaker 2: I like Atlanta a lot, go look at the Carolina

875
00:41:59,080 --> 00:42:02,439
Speaker 2: injury situation. First of all, the offensive line is not good.

876
00:42:02,440 --> 00:42:05,239
Speaker 2: They got boat raced in the offseason. I'm sorry. In

877
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:07,600
Speaker 2: the preseason. Their offensive line just got destroyed by the

878
00:42:07,680 --> 00:42:11,479
Speaker 2: Jets and the Giants and the receiving unit. Theeland didn't

879
00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:14,719
Speaker 2: practice Thursday. Terrence Marshall's banged up. Who's like their number

880
00:42:14,719 --> 00:42:19,000
Speaker 2: three or four? And one other receiver Shark didn't practice Thursday.

881
00:42:19,040 --> 00:42:21,879
Speaker 2: It's like, is Jonathan Mingo the rookie who I did

882
00:42:21,880 --> 00:42:24,680
Speaker 2: grab in a fantasy league, is he really gonna be

883
00:42:26,320 --> 00:42:29,399
Speaker 2: You're starting number one receiver? And again, I don't think

884
00:42:29,440 --> 00:42:31,320
Speaker 2: Atlanta now Terrell is a pretty good cornerback, but I

885
00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:33,000
Speaker 2: don't think Atlanta's defense is anything great.

886
00:42:33,040 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 3: I just don't know if.

887
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:37,240
Speaker 2: Bryce Young's gonna survive. So I like Atlanta to win handily.

888
00:42:37,239 --> 00:42:39,120
Speaker 2: I don't like a lot of points from Carolina. I

889
00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:41,319
Speaker 2: could see like twenty seven to nine or something like that.

890
00:42:42,000 --> 00:42:42,800
Speaker 3: So I have the under.

891
00:42:42,960 --> 00:42:45,799
Speaker 2: I have the over in Jacksonville, Indy over forty three

892
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:48,480
Speaker 2: and a half. I don't trust the Jacksonville defense. I

893
00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 2: think it's way over hyped. I know we talk divisional

894
00:42:51,680 --> 00:42:54,560
Speaker 2: home dogs are money. TA gave the number divisional home

895
00:42:54,600 --> 00:42:57,719
Speaker 2: dogs twenty one and five run since I think it's

896
00:42:57,760 --> 00:43:00,879
Speaker 2: twenty ten in week one. I just don't know if

897
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:04,400
Speaker 2: I have the stones. I don't have the Kahonas to

898
00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:05,239
Speaker 2: take Indy here.

899
00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:06,280
Speaker 3: I just don't.

900
00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:08,640
Speaker 2: I'm sure I'll regret not taking them and they'll pull

901
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:12,520
Speaker 2: the upset out right. You know it's possible I get

902
00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:14,759
Speaker 2: excited and just fire on the money line, just a

903
00:43:14,800 --> 00:43:17,319
Speaker 2: pizza money leading up to the game. But I just

904
00:43:17,400 --> 00:43:21,319
Speaker 2: I can't. There's just so devoid of talent, and we

905
00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:23,719
Speaker 2: know Jacksonville has the ability to score with all the

906
00:43:23,760 --> 00:43:26,200
Speaker 2: weapons they have. They got with Adam Calvin Ridley, man,

907
00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:28,600
Speaker 2: this team's got some juice. I don't like the Indie defense.

908
00:43:28,640 --> 00:43:30,960
Speaker 2: But bottom line is, I think there'll be points. I

909
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:33,160
Speaker 2: probably should take Indye, but I'm being a woos and

910
00:43:33,239 --> 00:43:35,680
Speaker 2: the final total I have is the over forty three

911
00:43:35,719 --> 00:43:38,400
Speaker 2: and a half in Houston Baltimore. I believe there'll be

912
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:42,759
Speaker 2: some garbage time action from the Texans. Would not be

913
00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:47,200
Speaker 2: surprised if this was like forty to seventeen, forty to fourteen.

914
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:49,959
Speaker 2: Rape Ravens are gonna score. I don't know about at will,

915
00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:53,000
Speaker 2: but they will score a lot of points here. So

916
00:43:53,040 --> 00:43:55,600
Speaker 2: those are the three totals, I like other games I'm

917
00:43:55,640 --> 00:43:56,160
Speaker 2: looking at.

918
00:43:57,600 --> 00:43:58,080
Speaker 3: It's funny.

919
00:43:58,080 --> 00:44:01,439
Speaker 2: I've been trashing Tampa all offseason. I don't think they're good,

920
00:44:01,960 --> 00:44:04,920
Speaker 2: but you look at this spread and you're like, wait

921
00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:05,480
Speaker 2: a minute, Wait a.

922
00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:06,399
Speaker 3: Minute, how are they?

923
00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:11,840
Speaker 2: How is Minnesota favored by? Is it six and a

924
00:44:11,880 --> 00:44:14,200
Speaker 2: half or is it down to five? How the hell?

925
00:44:14,640 --> 00:44:18,400
Speaker 2: Yeah it was six, it's now down to five and

926
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:21,399
Speaker 2: a half. And as I'm recording this Sunday, I'm sorry,

927
00:44:21,400 --> 00:44:23,839
Speaker 2: not Sunday night. I'm recording this Thursday night. I see

928
00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:26,560
Speaker 2: bet Chris perceived to be the sharpest book because they

929
00:44:26,560 --> 00:44:28,520
Speaker 2: take a lot of big bets. It's down to five.

930
00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:32,600
Speaker 2: I think you have to bet Tampa Bay in this spot.

931
00:44:32,880 --> 00:44:34,839
Speaker 2: Go look at the Minnesota defense. I think they lost

932
00:44:34,880 --> 00:44:37,919
Speaker 2: five starters, and it's not like they were that great

933
00:44:37,920 --> 00:44:41,040
Speaker 2: to begin with. Last year they had I think eleven

934
00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:47,040
Speaker 2: to zero one score games, ridiculous good fortune in comebacks,

935
00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:50,760
Speaker 2: and yes they're at home, and yes in the opener

936
00:44:50,840 --> 00:44:53,000
Speaker 2: last year they showed really well against Green Bay and

937
00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:56,800
Speaker 2: destroyed them. I just think this Tampa team with Baker

938
00:44:57,120 --> 00:44:59,640
Speaker 2: Evans Godwin, there's not going to be any quit They're

939
00:44:59,640 --> 00:45:02,080
Speaker 2: going to kee throwing and I don't think Minnesota can

940
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:04,160
Speaker 2: put up much resistance. They just don't have the talent

941
00:45:04,239 --> 00:45:07,640
Speaker 2: on defense. So I think Tampa's gonna hang around. Now,

942
00:45:07,640 --> 00:45:10,200
Speaker 2: this is one of those Jay J be careful. It's

943
00:45:10,239 --> 00:45:14,000
Speaker 2: not a divisional matchup. It's just so I'm looking at

944
00:45:14,000 --> 00:45:17,080
Speaker 2: Tampa in the contest. I don't love it, but man,

945
00:45:17,440 --> 00:45:19,880
Speaker 2: it's a little tasty. I don't think anyone's gonna have

946
00:45:19,960 --> 00:45:23,200
Speaker 2: them either, so it would be like a little edge

947
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:26,359
Speaker 2: the other game. Oh wait, did I mention Atlanta? Yeah,

948
00:45:26,360 --> 00:45:29,040
Speaker 2: I think I have Atlanta as a near lock at

949
00:45:29,080 --> 00:45:32,080
Speaker 2: three and a half in the contest. I just looked

950
00:45:32,120 --> 00:45:34,680
Speaker 2: up Brian Burns, who's a great EDG drusher. He's holding out,

951
00:45:34,719 --> 00:45:36,399
Speaker 2: so like Ritters should be able to have his way

952
00:45:36,400 --> 00:45:39,440
Speaker 2: against Carolina. I know the defense has some dudes, but

953
00:45:39,880 --> 00:45:42,120
Speaker 2: I think the Atlanta offense is gonna have some success there.

954
00:45:44,239 --> 00:45:46,479
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna be taking Baltimore in the contest because

955
00:45:46,520 --> 00:45:51,000
Speaker 2: I have vowed not to do double digit favorites because

956
00:45:51,080 --> 00:45:52,680
Speaker 2: it always kills me. I say I'm not gonna do it.

957
00:45:52,680 --> 00:45:54,000
Speaker 2: I say I'm not gonna do it. Then there's someone

958
00:45:54,040 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 2: minus eleven. Oh, come on, there's a frigging layup and

959
00:45:56,120 --> 00:45:57,879
Speaker 2: then they blow it. So I'm not doing double digit

960
00:45:57,920 --> 00:46:02,000
Speaker 2: favorites at all in the contest. I don't think I'm

961
00:46:02,000 --> 00:46:05,400
Speaker 2: gonna do Saints Titans in the contest. I like the

962
00:46:05,440 --> 00:46:09,560
Speaker 2: Saints a lot this year. I had liked them in

963
00:46:09,600 --> 00:46:13,040
Speaker 2: this opener, and you start reading some stuff about Tennessee

964
00:46:13,239 --> 00:46:15,120
Speaker 2: and looking into it, and you're like, damn, in this

965
00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:18,319
Speaker 2: Tennessee freaking They're gonna hang around, aren't they. Vrabel is

966
00:46:18,360 --> 00:46:22,600
Speaker 2: a great coach. Dennis Allen, we know, is historically not

967
00:46:22,680 --> 00:46:26,759
Speaker 2: a great coach. So I'm probably gonna shy away from

968
00:46:26,840 --> 00:46:29,600
Speaker 2: Saints in the contest. And it just goes down to three,

969
00:46:29,640 --> 00:46:31,520
Speaker 2: I'll know I was right, and the contest has three

970
00:46:31,520 --> 00:46:33,520
Speaker 2: and a half, So maybe I take Tennessee. Now, I

971
00:46:33,560 --> 00:46:37,000
Speaker 2: will add one other thing. Guys, A buddy said, hey,

972
00:46:37,040 --> 00:46:43,600
Speaker 2: do you want to be in this Sports Picks weekly contest?

973
00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:47,480
Speaker 2: And essentially it is you pay two hundred dollars for

974
00:46:47,520 --> 00:46:50,600
Speaker 2: the season, and every week you have to pick every

975
00:46:50,719 --> 00:46:56,120
Speaker 2: game against the spread, every game and every week somebody's

976
00:46:56,160 --> 00:46:57,879
Speaker 2: gonna win money if you win first, and then there's

977
00:46:57,880 --> 00:46:58,880
Speaker 2: an end of the season prize.

978
00:46:58,920 --> 00:46:59,400
Speaker 3: It's bigger.

979
00:47:00,719 --> 00:47:03,360
Speaker 2: So I'll just admit I had Detroit. The line was

980
00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:05,200
Speaker 2: six and a half. Because I guess the lines are frozen.

981
00:47:06,760 --> 00:47:08,160
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna do it this week because I don't

982
00:47:08,160 --> 00:47:10,120
Speaker 2: know who's listening, who else is in this contest. I

983
00:47:10,160 --> 00:47:12,800
Speaker 2: have a great feeling about Week one, So I have Washington.

984
00:47:12,800 --> 00:47:15,040
Speaker 2: I picked Washington minus six and a half. I have

985
00:47:15,080 --> 00:47:18,120
Speaker 2: Atlanta minus three and a half. Cleveland it's only plus

986
00:47:18,120 --> 00:47:20,279
Speaker 2: one and a half. Here. I have Baltimore minus nine

987
00:47:20,320 --> 00:47:22,919
Speaker 2: and a half. I took Indy plus three and a half.

988
00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:26,040
Speaker 2: Now that's way down from five. I don't know how

989
00:47:26,080 --> 00:47:27,279
Speaker 2: the hell they have Indy at three and a half,

990
00:47:27,320 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 2: but I'm on Indy. I got Pittsburgh two and a half.

991
00:47:29,800 --> 00:47:32,760
Speaker 2: I have Tampa six and a half. I took Tennessee

992
00:47:32,880 --> 00:47:35,520
Speaker 2: plus three and a half green Bay plus two and

993
00:47:35,560 --> 00:47:37,680
Speaker 2: a half. I have major concern with that. I want

994
00:47:37,719 --> 00:47:41,280
Speaker 2: to take the Packers this week. But this Watson Dobbs

995
00:47:41,360 --> 00:47:46,600
Speaker 2: wide receiver situation. Listen, we just watched the Chiefs struggle

996
00:47:46,719 --> 00:47:50,000
Speaker 2: mightily at receiver and that's with Patrick Mahomes. So now

997
00:47:50,000 --> 00:47:52,400
Speaker 2: you're taking out Dobbs and Watson maybe not playing, and

998
00:47:52,440 --> 00:47:56,160
Speaker 2: I'm like, I can't touch the Packers. So I think

999
00:47:56,160 --> 00:47:58,560
Speaker 2: I'm gonna have to lay off them. But in this thing,

1000
00:47:58,680 --> 00:48:00,560
Speaker 2: you know, divisional dog, I think I can take Green

1001
00:48:00,600 --> 00:48:03,080
Speaker 2: Bay in this in this pick him contest. Seattle minus

1002
00:48:03,120 --> 00:48:05,120
Speaker 2: five and a half, I'm strongly considering them in the

1003
00:48:05,120 --> 00:48:07,839
Speaker 2: contest as well. Denver minus four and a half on them,

1004
00:48:08,120 --> 00:48:10,120
Speaker 2: Chargers minus two and a half. I like him. That's

1005
00:48:10,120 --> 00:48:12,920
Speaker 2: gone up to three, by the way, And just keep

1006
00:48:12,960 --> 00:48:15,719
Speaker 2: an eye out on that Dolphins injury report. Tront Armstead

1007
00:48:16,239 --> 00:48:18,640
Speaker 2: doesn't sound like he's gonna be a go the left tackle.

1008
00:48:19,520 --> 00:48:23,279
Speaker 2: Kind of a big deal going against a Bosa. You're

1009
00:48:23,280 --> 00:48:25,880
Speaker 2: gonna want to monitor that TA In Game one, I

1010
00:48:25,920 --> 00:48:27,600
Speaker 2: did see an awesome note. I mean, this is just

1011
00:48:27,600 --> 00:48:31,520
Speaker 2: an incredible nugget that last year the Chargers had one

1012
00:48:31,520 --> 00:48:34,160
Speaker 2: of the best game plans against the Dolphins. It was

1013
00:48:34,200 --> 00:48:37,520
Speaker 2: just an awesome game plan man man coverage, press, and

1014
00:48:37,560 --> 00:48:41,319
Speaker 2: they forced to it to make the deep outside throws

1015
00:48:41,360 --> 00:48:42,960
Speaker 2: nothing available in the middle of field, and two it

1016
00:48:42,960 --> 00:48:45,319
Speaker 2: couldn't make the throws. Chargers bottled them up. It was great.

1017
00:48:46,200 --> 00:48:49,880
Speaker 2: The defensive coordinator from the Chargers was hired by the

1018
00:48:49,920 --> 00:48:52,480
Speaker 2: Dolphins in the offseason. If you a classic, if you

1019
00:48:52,600 --> 00:48:56,120
Speaker 2: can't beat them, join them right you gotta love that.

1020
00:48:57,840 --> 00:49:02,360
Speaker 2: So I I like the Chargers there, but we'll see it.

1021
00:49:02,520 --> 00:49:06,480
Speaker 2: Just I think I like the Chargers are so far Patriot. Okay,

1022
00:49:06,560 --> 00:49:09,680
Speaker 2: this was a tough one, Patriots Eagles. I have Patriots

1023
00:49:10,080 --> 00:49:12,680
Speaker 2: plus four and a half. Speaking of coaching moves, this

1024
00:49:12,719 --> 00:49:15,440
Speaker 2: one's interesting. Anybody know where Matt Patricia is right now?

1025
00:49:16,239 --> 00:49:19,960
Speaker 2: And I'm asking that, hold on, let me just google

1026
00:49:20,040 --> 00:49:22,320
Speaker 2: Matt Patricia. I'm asking that. What's the word?

1027
00:49:22,400 --> 00:49:22,839
Speaker 3: Damn it?

1028
00:49:23,840 --> 00:49:27,160
Speaker 2: I know the rhetorically, it's a rhetorical question. Matt Patricia

1029
00:49:27,280 --> 00:49:31,399
Speaker 2: last year was the Patriots offensive coordinator, so he knows

1030
00:49:31,400 --> 00:49:38,080
Speaker 2: Mac Jones really well. Wikipedia. Matt Patricia is the senior

1031
00:49:38,280 --> 00:49:41,000
Speaker 2: defensive assistant for the Philadelphia Eagles.

1032
00:49:41,640 --> 00:49:43,640
Speaker 3: Huh. Interesting.

1033
00:49:45,600 --> 00:49:49,239
Speaker 2: Matt Patricia with the Patriots all last year, knows what

1034
00:49:49,280 --> 00:49:52,799
Speaker 2: Mac Jones is and limited and everything tendencies, and now

1035
00:49:52,800 --> 00:49:56,960
Speaker 2: he goes to Philadelphia and he's a defensive guy. So

1036
00:49:58,719 --> 00:50:02,440
Speaker 2: I wonder if we will see some tweaks from the

1037
00:50:02,480 --> 00:50:05,319
Speaker 2: Eagles defensively how they approach Mac Jones because of the

1038
00:50:07,000 --> 00:50:12,680
Speaker 2: intimate knowledge that Matt Patricia possesses of Mac Jones, who

1039
00:50:12,719 --> 00:50:16,000
Speaker 2: I don't even think is very good. So I'm doing

1040
00:50:16,120 --> 00:50:18,319
Speaker 2: Patriots in the contest just because it's four and a half.

1041
00:50:18,560 --> 00:50:20,040
Speaker 2: But man, I want to bet the Eagles here.

1042
00:50:20,280 --> 00:50:22,520
Speaker 3: This looks to me like it could be a.

1043
00:50:25,120 --> 00:50:28,319
Speaker 2: Eagles thirty four Patriots thirteen. Jason, how did you miss

1044
00:50:28,320 --> 00:50:30,200
Speaker 2: a lay up like that? The Eagles are really good?

1045
00:50:30,320 --> 00:50:32,560
Speaker 2: It could I feel like we could see that. But

1046
00:50:32,640 --> 00:50:34,720
Speaker 2: there is the Super Bowl hangover notes. Some guy tweeted

1047
00:50:34,760 --> 00:50:35,880
Speaker 2: it at me. I had to look it up to

1048
00:50:35,920 --> 00:50:40,840
Speaker 2: make sure it was accurate. The Super Bowl loser is

1049
00:50:41,280 --> 00:50:45,000
Speaker 2: four and eighteen against the spread in Week one in

1050
00:50:45,040 --> 00:50:48,400
Speaker 2: the last twenty two years, four and eighteen, staggering New

1051
00:50:48,480 --> 00:50:50,360
Speaker 2: York Giants. I took plus three and a half in

1052
00:50:50,520 --> 00:50:53,480
Speaker 2: this pick'um contest. I don't know if I have the

1053
00:50:53,560 --> 00:50:56,200
Speaker 2: stones to take them in the real contest where real

1054
00:50:56,200 --> 00:50:58,360
Speaker 2: money is. It's take like real money, you know, And

1055
00:50:58,440 --> 00:51:01,440
Speaker 2: I want to be competitive in that. And that's kind

1056
00:51:01,440 --> 00:51:03,000
Speaker 2: of what you have to do. I know, I'm talking

1057
00:51:03,000 --> 00:51:05,520
Speaker 2: out of both sides of my mouth. To be competitive

1058
00:51:05,520 --> 00:51:07,640
Speaker 2: in this thing, you're gonna have to hold your nose

1059
00:51:07,640 --> 00:51:10,080
Speaker 2: and take some of these dogs with fleas. And if

1060
00:51:10,120 --> 00:51:12,319
Speaker 2: you just look at the matchups, the Dallas Cowboys have

1061
00:51:13,080 --> 00:51:17,080
Speaker 2: infinitely more talent than the Giants, but divisional matchup home dog.

1062
00:51:17,160 --> 00:51:18,040
Speaker 2: It checks the boxes.

1063
00:51:18,120 --> 00:51:19,040
Speaker 3: Jason, what are you doing?

1064
00:51:20,280 --> 00:51:22,239
Speaker 2: And of course Jets. I'm taking the Jets over the Bills.

1065
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:26,319
Speaker 2: At any rate, those are best bets. That's a lot

1066
00:51:26,360 --> 00:51:27,839
Speaker 2: of them. I don't want to go through every game

1067
00:51:27,880 --> 00:51:30,480
Speaker 2: every weekend, but I just did. At any rate, enjoy

1068
00:51:30,520 --> 00:51:32,720
Speaker 2: the weekend, enjoy the games. I can't wait for Monday.