WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 18, 2024

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along

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<v Speaker 2>with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day

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<v Speaker 2>for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics

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<v Speaker 2>from our global headquarters in New York City. We are

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<v Speaker 2>live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine

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<v Speaker 2>am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or

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<v Speaker 2>anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. With the latest of

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg's Mike Shepard Sharp walk us through the latest and

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<v Speaker 2>the latest developments over the last few days on this front.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, there's really been a lot happening with respect to Intel.

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<v Speaker 3>We've chronicled over the years, thanks for our colleague Ian King,

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<v Speaker 3>all of the company's struggles, and they really reached an

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<v Speaker 3>inflection point last month. We saw that really rough earnings

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<v Speaker 3>outlook that they gave toward the end of August that

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<v Speaker 3>sent the company's share sliding by the most in decades,

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<v Speaker 3>and since then everybody's been wondering where do they go

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<v Speaker 3>from here? Well, the company has had a board meeting,

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<v Speaker 3>they've decided to cut more than fifteen thousand jobs try

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<v Speaker 3>to trim ten billion dollars in spending. But now we're

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<v Speaker 3>getting a few other bits of good news this week.

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<v Speaker 3>One of them is this news from the company and

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<v Speaker 3>from the Pentagon and Commerce Department that Intel is eligible

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<v Speaker 3>for up to three billion dollars for military chip production,

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<v Speaker 3>and this company's roughly twenty billion dollars in loans and

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<v Speaker 3>grants that Intel is due to receive for commercial production

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<v Speaker 3>under the Chips and Science Act that the President was

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<v Speaker 3>just talking about in that clip. The company also announced

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<v Speaker 3>this week of partnership with Amazon World Services to produce

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<v Speaker 3>a multi billion dollar and it's a multi billion dollar

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<v Speaker 3>initiative to produce semiconductors for artificial intelligence for Amazon's cloud

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<v Speaker 3>computing arm This is potentially more significant than the military

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<v Speaker 3>chip we were just talking about, only because it shows

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<v Speaker 3>that Intel is developing a commercial customer base that could

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<v Speaker 3>feed some of the new plants and support some of

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<v Speaker 3>the new plants that Biden was talking about and hoping

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<v Speaker 3>to see built.

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<v Speaker 4>This isn't just about building manufacturing bases in the United States.

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<v Speaker 4>This is a national security concern. Why is the ministration

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<v Speaker 4>coming out and touting this but at the same time

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<v Speaker 4>looking to block. Now there's an extension when it comes

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<v Speaker 4>to Nipon Steel, an ally of the United States, a

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<v Speaker 4>Japanese company, and they're fourteen billion dollar takeover of US steel.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, on the steel front, it's very much a politically

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<v Speaker 3>charged question because Nipon Steels attempted buy US steel. There

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<v Speaker 3>is such symbolism and it is so freighted with US

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<v Speaker 3>steal being an iconic company for the US and especially

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<v Speaker 3>for President Joe Biden, who hails from Pennsylvania. So the

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<v Speaker 3>resistance politically lead to that proposal is not surprising. I

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<v Speaker 3>think we have to separate a little bit that national

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<v Speaker 3>security front on chips because that is a really core

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<v Speaker 3>and consequential technology that if the US loses any ground

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<v Speaker 3>to China on this front, it would be a potential

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<v Speaker 3>risk militarily in the Pacific.

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<v Speaker 4>Basin chev Do you know what the national security concerns

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<v Speaker 4>are when it comes to US steel and Nippon Steel.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, one of the concerns is that, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>Nipon Steel actually does a fair amount of business in China,

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<v Speaker 3>and would would US steals production somehow be vulnerable to shifts,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, once the company takes over. If the transaction

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<v Speaker 3>were ultimately improved, approved, and it is not looking terribly favorable,

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<v Speaker 3>would some of the production be shifted over there? And

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<v Speaker 3>if US steel makes some advances domestically and you know,

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<v Speaker 3>perfect some of its techniques, would those get transferred somehow

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<v Speaker 3>to production in China. So what they're worried about is

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<v Speaker 3>that nexus of US production with Chinese production that Nippon

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<v Speaker 3>still ultimately have control over, should it somehow pull off

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<v Speaker 3>a trans completion of this deal.

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<v Speaker 1>Call me cynical here, but when I saw that it

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<v Speaker 1>was pushed back until after the election, this particular decision

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<v Speaker 1>with Knee Pun Steel, I thought to myself, well, doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>that make it convenient for a lot of the politicians

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<v Speaker 1>They can rail against it, say they're completely you know,

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<v Speaker 1>for keeping US businesses domestic in their entire ownership, and

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<v Speaker 1>then approve it later when it seems like there's no

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<v Speaker 1>better option really for US steal? Is that the right

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<v Speaker 1>way to read this?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, Lisa, I'll share your cynicism. It really did look

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<v Speaker 3>like a convenient move to push it after the election,

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<v Speaker 3>to also remove it as an issue if the decision

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<v Speaker 3>were made before November fifth. That would expose the current

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<v Speaker 3>Democratic nominee and presidential Canada Kamala Harris, accusations that no

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<v Speaker 3>matter which way it goes, it would somehow be harming

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<v Speaker 3>US industry and if they decided to approve it, it

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<v Speaker 3>would hurt the party's standing with union workers, whose votes

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<v Speaker 3>and support they really need come November.

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<v Speaker 2>I shaf appreciate the update down in Washington Bloomberg's My

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<v Speaker 2>Shepherd with the latest on several fronts. Listen to this

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<v Speaker 2>for a forecast. It comes from Max Light in a

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<v Speaker 2>city thinking prices will actually grind lower over the next

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<v Speaker 2>three to six months, and afterage sixty dollars a barrel

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<v Speaker 2>in twenty twenty five, Max joins is now for more Max.

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<v Speaker 2>We've got plenty to talk about, and lots of commodities

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<v Speaker 2>to discuss as well, but let's start with crude. Why

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<v Speaker 2>isn't this a bigger factor in your roundelook? Sure?

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<v Speaker 5>I mean, just to clarify, in the short run, we're

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<v Speaker 5>seeing a lot of upside risks in the oil market.

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<v Speaker 5>We have an average price forecast of seventy seventy four

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<v Speaker 5>dollars for Brent for the fourth quarter of this year,

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<v Speaker 5>so there's upside risk from what's going on in the

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<v Speaker 5>Middle East in terms of potential risk premium in the market, Russia, Ukraine,

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<v Speaker 5>hurricane risk, Libya's outage is ongoing, and you may go

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<v Speaker 5>on for months and months. The market may continue to

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<v Speaker 5>get a boost from the FED cutting cycle in the

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<v Speaker 5>very short run, But I guess the broader dynamic, which

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<v Speaker 5>we've been highlighting since at least January of this year,

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<v Speaker 5>is that they're slowing demand growth, whether it's led by

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<v Speaker 5>China or just a broader global cyclical weakness, and it's

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<v Speaker 5>being met by solid non OPEC plus supply growth. So

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<v Speaker 5>OPEK plus has a problem, and they have a problem

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<v Speaker 5>with spare capacity. They've been cutting for two years, so

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<v Speaker 5>you know they've got a big decision to make in

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<v Speaker 5>early December.

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<v Speaker 1>There's a question about whether oil is getting increasingly divorced

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<v Speaker 1>from the economic cycle in terms of an indicator, and

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<v Speaker 1>whether there is divergency in China and the makes it

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<v Speaker 1>increasingly confusing. As well as the transformation of a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of the energy ecosystems to electric vehicle and other types

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<v Speaker 1>of renewable energy sources. How much do you attribute that

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<v Speaker 1>transformation or transition as part of that sort of decline

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<v Speaker 1>and demand.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, we think that's a big, big part of the story.

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<v Speaker 5>So there's a structural part of it which is being

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<v Speaker 5>led by China, which is investing massively in the energy transition,

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<v Speaker 5>and in response to shocks, China's probably going to double

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<v Speaker 5>down on that investment in the energy transition and specifically

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<v Speaker 5>going to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles, which retail

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<v Speaker 5>adoption was around fifty four percent last month of electric vehicles,

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<v Speaker 5>which is up about twenty percentage points over the last

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<v Speaker 5>twelve months, so massive. China's basically solving all the problems

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<v Speaker 5>we talk about in the West with respect to electric vehicles.

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<v Speaker 5>We talk about range anxiety, price anxiety, charging anxiety, weather anxiety,

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<v Speaker 5>latest vehicles, the latest batteries. Some of them haven't been

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<v Speaker 5>mass produced yet in terms of the vehicles and the batteries,

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<v Speaker 5>but you know, they're solving these problems. And it's evidence

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<v Speaker 5>in the data, and it's evidence in the slowing in

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<v Speaker 5>oil demand growth. And there's a cyclical element as well,

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<v Speaker 5>which is you know why the Fed's most likely going

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<v Speaker 5>to be starting a pretty aggressive cutting cycle this week.

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<v Speaker 1>What I find fascinating is the oil used to be

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<v Speaker 1>sort of a geopolitical temperature taker, or at least an

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<v Speaker 1>economic temperature taker, and now it seems to be shifting

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<v Speaker 1>a bit to precious metals. You expect that precious metals

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<v Speaker 1>will actually get arguably the biggest boost from some of

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<v Speaker 1>the rate cuts that we're expecting to see. Can you

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<v Speaker 1>explain why that is and why that's maybe the better

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<v Speaker 1>macroeconomic indicator right now than oil.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, we're really excited about precious metals, particularly silver, but

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<v Speaker 5>also gold. But the reason why silver looks super interesting

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<v Speaker 5>right now is, you know, I spoke a bit about

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<v Speaker 5>how oil is negatively exposed to China's energy transition. Silver

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<v Speaker 5>is positively exposed to China's energy transition has this bifurcat

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<v Speaker 5>economy where energy transition sectors are relatively strong and the cyclical,

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<v Speaker 5>the housing, the private sector, the prices of property, wealth impacts,

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<v Speaker 5>they're all super negative sentiments, quite negative in China. Silver's

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<v Speaker 5>also bullishly exposed to that. The retail retail buying of

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<v Speaker 5>silver just started to pick up over the last couple

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<v Speaker 5>of months. You're seeing the first kind of imports of

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<v Speaker 5>silver in bar and coin form into China that we've

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<v Speaker 5>seen for years. And years and years. So silver's kind

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<v Speaker 5>of uniquely exposed in a bullish way to both the

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<v Speaker 5>bearish part of China and the bullish part of China.

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<v Speaker 5>It's going into solar panels on the energy transition side

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<v Speaker 5>in particular, as well as ebs. Yeah, obviously, both gold

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<v Speaker 5>and silver are super exposed to lower real rates in

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<v Speaker 5>the US weakening US growth for years, and we're going

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<v Speaker 5>to probably get a big wealth shift into gold and

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<v Speaker 5>silver from US and global investors exposed to their own

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<v Speaker 5>regional cutting cycles.

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<v Speaker 4>Max, do you continuously see central banks buying goal to

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<v Speaker 4>diversify away from the US dollar.

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<v Speaker 5>Continuously certainly received for the next twelve to eighteen months.

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<v Speaker 5>Tough to forecast beyond that horizon. That's a long enough

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<v Speaker 5>horizon for me, but yes, certainly there's enough treasury holdings

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<v Speaker 5>left to sell to buy more, much more.

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<v Speaker 2>Gold, Max, We've got to do more of this. Appreciate

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<v Speaker 2>the clarity on the outlook, sir. Thank you. Max. Later

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<v Speaker 2>in the of Citry, I just want to pause and

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<v Speaker 2>talk about the biggest story of the last twenty four hours.

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<v Speaker 2>Just pause. Imagine you received this movie script. Imagine you

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<v Speaker 2>saw this movie at the theater. I don't think you'd

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<v Speaker 2>believe it. I think you think this was a stretch.

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<v Speaker 2>What took place in Lebanon in the last twenty four hours.

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<v Speaker 2>Thousands of pages in Lebanon exploding yesterday simultaneously, all at

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<v Speaker 2>the same time, killing several people and leaving almost three

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<v Speaker 2>thousand wounded across the country, including hundreds of members of

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<v Speaker 2>the hospital. Militant groups accusing is of orchestraking the attack.

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<v Speaker 2>Israel declining to comment, let's head over to the region

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<v Speaker 2>and cantshat with Jamanabas said, you now joining us now

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<v Speaker 2>from Dubai Jamala, walk me through this. This looked like

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<v Speaker 2>an action movie out of Hollywood. It was not. It

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<v Speaker 2>was real life. What do we know happened?

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<v Speaker 1>That's it.

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<v Speaker 6>Feeling of shock, disbelief, fear is prevailing right now in Lebanon.

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<v Speaker 6>So what we do know is at three thirty pm

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<v Speaker 6>local time yesterday these pages all exploded simultaneously. The Lebanon

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<v Speaker 6>Health Minister just put out a statement now saying twy

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<v Speaker 6>eight hundred people were injured. Twelve people were killed, including

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<v Speaker 6>two children, and many of them are in serious condition.

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<v Speaker 6>They are about two hundred to three hundred as serious cases.

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<v Speaker 6>Interestingly enough, The Iranian ambassador was also harmed in this attack,

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<v Speaker 6>and both Hesbelah and the Lebanese government were very quick

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<v Speaker 6>to blame Israel, with the Lebanese Prime Minister Najidmiati saying

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<v Speaker 6>that this is an attack on Lebanon sovereignty. Israel themselves

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<v Speaker 6>have declined to comment and they haven't said anything about

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<v Speaker 6>the incident. But what this constitutes is uh Ah an

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<v Speaker 6>embarrassing security breach for Hesbela. It is the biggest security

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<v Speaker 6>breach ever. And lots of people were saying, what were

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<v Speaker 6>these operatives doing walking around with pagers? Anyway, And you

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<v Speaker 6>have to rewind back to this speech that Hassen Losarella,

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<v Speaker 6>the commander in chief of Hesbella, gave back in February,

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<v Speaker 6>where he warns military operatists to not use their cell

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<v Speaker 6>phones out of concerns that they may be intercepted by

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<v Speaker 6>Israeli intelligence and he thought that maybe if they use

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<v Speaker 6>these low tech devices, the pagers, it would be safer.

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<v Speaker 6>But obviously you fast forward to today and what we're

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<v Speaker 6>seeing is a massive intelligence and security breach and now

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<v Speaker 6>Hesbela is on the defensive.

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<v Speaker 4>Jumana, is this a case of escalation to de escalate

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<v Speaker 4>or do we think or do you think, haw you

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<v Speaker 4>reine the tea leaves Isra wants to escalate, to escalate.

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<v Speaker 4>What happens next?

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<v Speaker 6>I think, Amrie, that we are seeing a whole new

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<v Speaker 6>level of warfare, and what we have seen since October

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<v Speaker 6>seven is daily crossfire, exchange of fire on that border

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<v Speaker 6>uh with Israel, the northern border. What this has meant

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<v Speaker 6>now is we're moving towards a new type of warfare,

0:13:03.800 --> 0:13:06.720
<v Speaker 6>and this is cyber warfare. A lot more question marks,

0:13:06.720 --> 0:13:09.000
<v Speaker 6>a lot of different operators going behind the scenes. If

0:13:09.040 --> 0:13:11.920
<v Speaker 6>you look at all of the cybersecurity comments that came

0:13:11.960 --> 0:13:15.800
<v Speaker 6>through yesterday, trying to understand exactly what happened, it's still

0:13:15.800 --> 0:13:20.360
<v Speaker 6>not clear. But what has emerged is this feeling that

0:13:20.400 --> 0:13:25.040
<v Speaker 6>these devices had been tampered with in potentially a different

0:13:25.080 --> 0:13:28.800
<v Speaker 6>country and therefore the shipments that came through just a

0:13:28.800 --> 0:13:31.400
<v Speaker 6>week ago. According to a Lakhbard, this is a news

0:13:31.480 --> 0:13:35.720
<v Speaker 6>agency that's closely associated to Hasbala. We're all contaminated with

0:13:35.840 --> 0:13:38.439
<v Speaker 6>these explosive devices. So it does raise a lot of

0:13:38.520 --> 0:13:41.720
<v Speaker 6>questions about the new type of warfare that we're entering into.

0:13:41.840 --> 0:13:44.800
<v Speaker 6>But certainly Lebanon is on a high state of alert

0:13:45.240 --> 0:13:48.600
<v Speaker 6>and even if you rewind back earlier on in the day. Yesterday,

0:13:48.640 --> 0:13:51.160
<v Speaker 6>the Israeli government, the Prime Minister Nataieha, was saying that

0:13:51.200 --> 0:13:53.400
<v Speaker 6>they've got a new war objective now and that is

0:13:53.480 --> 0:13:58.040
<v Speaker 6>ensuring that security on the northern border is taken care

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<v Speaker 6>of so that people can start return running back to

0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:03.800
<v Speaker 6>their homes because since October seven, there has been this

0:14:03.920 --> 0:14:07.559
<v Speaker 6>daily exchange of crossfire and people have been forced to evacuate,

0:14:07.640 --> 0:14:09.439
<v Speaker 6>and so they want to resume some normalcy. And the

0:14:09.520 --> 0:14:12.720
<v Speaker 6>question is, unless there is a diplomatic solution, will this

0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:14.640
<v Speaker 6>open the door to a larger scale operation.

0:14:15.000 --> 0:14:17.880
<v Speaker 2>Shocking scenes yesterday, Jemana, thank you as always, Jemina have

0:14:17.960 --> 0:14:20.280
<v Speaker 2>sent you there of Bloomberg leading our coverage out of

0:14:20.320 --> 0:14:24.480
<v Speaker 2>the region. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you

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