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Speaker 1: The Volume Colin Coward Podcast presented by FanDuel Sports Book.

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Speaker 1: Please use the promo code Colin so they know we

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Speaker 1: L I N FanDuel Sports Book App. Sign up. This

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Speaker 1: is Prime Cuts, the best of the Colin Coward Podcast.

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Speaker 1: The Holidays meaningful football, most wonderful time of the year,

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Speaker 1: deemed NFL insider and Volume host Mike Silver filled me

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Speaker 1: in on some back channel pushback Jet Head coach Robert

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Speaker 1: Salah had about me. Also filled us in inside the

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Speaker 1: Niners and a couple of fascinating topics and the avalanche

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Speaker 1: of outrage from his article about Tom Brady's game planning habits.

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Speaker 1: Also Week sixteen, Sharper Square with the Action Networks Chad

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Speaker 1: Millman first my top takes of the week. So generally speaking,

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Speaker 1: California teams are wealthy in the context of comparing them

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Speaker 1: to other sports franchises. Stan Cronky owns the Rams. He's

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Speaker 1: the first or second richest NFL owner. The Dodgers have

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Speaker 1: the biggest payroll in baseball, could be fifty million annually,

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Speaker 1: more than any other team. But there are exceptions. Robert

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Speaker 1: Sarver was forced to sell the Phoenix Suns. Do you

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Speaker 1: know who now is the poorest NBA owner? Take a second,

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Speaker 1: Genie Bus Lakers the poorest NBA owner. Now, this has

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Speaker 1: been one of my concerns all along. It's gone from

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Speaker 1: a global brand to a national brand to now the

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Speaker 1: Lakers are just an LA brand. The truth is they're

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Speaker 1: not even the most popular NBA team in terms of

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Speaker 1: NBA ratings in California. The Warriors are. The Lakers organization

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Speaker 1: is friends and family. It is an incredibly insular brand

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Speaker 1: now instead of creative and innovative and progressive. It's not

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Speaker 1: the most popular basketball brand in the state of California.

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Speaker 1: The Warriors are. In fact, I would argue it's not

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Speaker 1: the most popular sports brand in Los Angeles. The are

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Speaker 1: The Dodgers draw ten thousand more fans per game than

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Speaker 1: the second best attendance team in Major League Baseball, which

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Speaker 1: I think is the Yankees. So when Stan cron Key

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Speaker 1: or wealthier owners, the Dodgers can go past a tax

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Speaker 1: threshold because they just want to win, to huge advantage

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Speaker 1: the Lakers. They just don't have the net worth as

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Speaker 1: an ownership group. And this is something I've harped on

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Speaker 1: for a long time. Lebron has an international brand. His

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Speaker 1: brand right now is better perceived than the Lakers brand.

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Speaker 1: Now he left the Cavaliers, they have no brand outside

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Speaker 1: of Ohio. But isn't that interesting that in Los Angeles,

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Speaker 1: all things considered, the Dodger owners among the richest, the

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Speaker 1: Rams owners among the richest, Steve ballmer Clippers owner among

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Speaker 1: the richest. He may be the richest Genie Buss, smallest

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Speaker 1: net worth among all NBA owners. This feels like a

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Speaker 1: corner store. And it was the world's biggest basketball brand

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Speaker 1: fifteen twenty years ago. The Celtics and the Lakers were

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Speaker 1: two big brands. The Celtics have kept up their end

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Speaker 1: of the deal. Still wildly popular, still move a television rating,

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Speaker 1: lots of young ascending players. Go. Look at the Lakers

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Speaker 1: last ten years. Take out the bubble year, which was

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Speaker 1: a complete outlier for sports. Take out the bubble year,

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Speaker 1: last ten years? What are the Lakers? A bottom five

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Speaker 1: win percentage NBA franchise. I think there are people in

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Speaker 1: Los Angeles I think I'm picking on them. I'm not,

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Speaker 1: but they just literally don't know what they were doing.

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Speaker 1: I was having a conversation with an NBA scout and

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Speaker 1: he was talking about to me the Lakers roster and

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Speaker 1: he's like, Colin, there are people on that roster that

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Speaker 1: we the team he works for or used to work for.

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Speaker 1: He said, we wouldn't even give a tryout, too, would

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Speaker 1: not give a tryout to so. Sean mcvayh after another

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Speaker 1: loss on Monday Night Football that was quoted saying this

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Speaker 1: year has really been quote humbling, Listen saysn't college football?

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Speaker 1: The better you are the Worshire draft pick, the better

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Speaker 1: you are you in the Super Bowl, everybody wants to

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Speaker 1: raise Von Miller wants more money, OBJ wants more money.

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Speaker 1: Players leave. Here's all you have to know. Patrick Mahomes

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Speaker 1: has never repeated as a Super Bowl champion. It's okay,

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Speaker 1: it's okay. The one thing the Rams have Sean McVeagh

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Speaker 1: is a great recruiter, and Stan Cronky is a very

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Speaker 1: wealthy owner, and Los Angeles is very attractive to free agents.

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Speaker 1: It's why Lincoln Riley can pitch and turn around USC

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Speaker 1: so quickly. It's a great place if you've got the

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Speaker 1: guy willing to give you the sales pitch. Lincoln Riley,

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Speaker 1: Sean McVay, you're going to be fine. Now, Chip Kelly,

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Speaker 1: who's a early smart coach, isn't much of a recruiter,

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Speaker 1: isn't a sales pitch guy, even he landed the nation's

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Speaker 1: second best high school quarterback this week. So California, a

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Speaker 1: wealthy owner and somebody that can pitch the franchise, you're

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Speaker 1: going to be fine. I mean, that's what I wonder

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Speaker 1: about New England. When New England comes out and says

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Speaker 1: their quarterback Matt Jones can't throw a hail Mary doesn't

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Speaker 1: have the arm to do it. When they throw forty

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Speaker 1: percent of their passes no more than five yards down

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Speaker 1: the field, the message you're sending to the National Football League,

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Speaker 1: the top receivers, the top tight ends, we don't respect

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Speaker 1: or trust our quarterback, and Belichick's not exactly zig Ziegler

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Speaker 1: as a salesman. My concern for the Patriots is that

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Speaker 1: whereas the Rams and New England are struggling, the Rams

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Speaker 1: have a quarterback in Matt Stafford that has proven he

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Speaker 1: can win not only playoff games, but roadplaoff games, and

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Speaker 1: a coach that's willing to pitch all the high qualities

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Speaker 1: of Los Angeles, of California, of the ownership of so

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Speaker 1: far of the roster. Belichick views that as beneath him.

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Speaker 1: Players don't want to play in cold weather anyway. They'll

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Speaker 1: go to New England or Buffalo if they can get

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Speaker 1: paid more. But when I look at the Patriots mess

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Speaker 1: the messaging to the rest of the league and free agents,

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Speaker 1: and this is why it's important free agents matter to

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Speaker 1: New England because they can't draft and develop skill players.

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Speaker 1: They can't do it ten years Gronks the last offensive

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Speaker 1: Pro Bowl or they drafted and developed, so they've got

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Speaker 1: to go to free agency. What's the sales pitch. We

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Speaker 1: don't love our quarterback, You'll have to take a pay

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Speaker 1: cut because we won't go top of the market. It's

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Speaker 1: culture and defense over offense. I never worry about USC

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Speaker 1: or an Alabama. When you hire a Saban or a

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Speaker 1: Brian Kelly at LSU, Aora Lincoln Riley, or a Jim Harbaught,

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Speaker 1: those guys can make a pitch. You tell me in

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Speaker 1: New England right now, I'm a wide receiver and they

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Speaker 1: have a terrible wide receiver room. You tell me what

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Speaker 1: is the pitch? Matt Jones, you don't trust him. Matt

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Speaker 1: Patricia's your offensive coordinator. Bill Belichick, culture over paycheck. Give

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Speaker 1: me the coach that is willing to sell a program,

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Speaker 1: college or pro. You can turn it around quickly. Belichick.

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Speaker 1: That is not his vibe. And players want to see

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Speaker 1: the love. They want to be recruited, even guys that

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Speaker 1: are already fifty million plus net worth in the NFL, NBA,

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Speaker 1: They want to be loved. You got to show him

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Speaker 1: the love, all right. Mike Silver, host of Open Mic

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Speaker 1: on the volume where in the volume merch haven't talked

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Speaker 1: to Mike in a long time. I'm all fired up

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Speaker 1: for this, and we've got to start with this one

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Speaker 1: of your interviews. I love this so much, I can't

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Speaker 1: I've got to talk about this. So one of your

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Speaker 1: great interviews with Robert Sala very you know, just dynamic,

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Speaker 1: good looking, big energy, really authentic at the mic, not

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Speaker 1: a b es or just going to come up. So

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Speaker 1: I was pretty harsh on him, and I've never known

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Speaker 1: if he's gonna make it or not, because I do

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Speaker 1: worry about defensive coach with the young quarterbacks, Matt Eberflus,

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Speaker 1: justin Fields, I worry about it. I see Doug Peterson,

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Speaker 1: who I was begging to get a job in Jacksonville

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Speaker 1: with Trevor, and Trevor pops like explodes. I do think

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Speaker 1: we're living in a time where if you can choose,

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Speaker 1: if you have to flip a coin, take the offensive

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Speaker 1: guy with a young quarterback. Be that as it may.

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Speaker 1: I'm not a fan of Zach Wilson. I've said before,

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Speaker 1: I don't know if Sala's gonna make it, but I

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Speaker 1: didn't like when he blamed the media for being instant coffee,

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Speaker 1: you know, overreactionary and impatient. Was Zach Wilson. My favorite part, though,

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Speaker 1: is he's your guy and he reached out to you.

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Speaker 1: You don't have to read all of it, but this

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Speaker 1: is funny. This is why I love doing what I do.

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Speaker 1: And he said to you. What well, he wanted me

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Speaker 1: to pass along some messages to you. One is that

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Speaker 1: he loves a long time listener, big fan fix. You're

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Speaker 1: very insightful, he said, judgmental but insightful. But yeah, he

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Speaker 1: just wants you to know. I think i'll paraphrase, he

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Speaker 1: doesn't want you to believe that he's some giant meadhead.

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Speaker 1: He and he has some offensive background. He played offense

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Speaker 1: through college. He started his coaching career on the offensive side.

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Speaker 1: I will say this Colin. So he brought Mike Lafloor

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Speaker 1: with him from Yeah, the forty nine ers, and basically

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Speaker 1: Mike Lafloor and Mike McDaniel were there. Kyle was going

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Speaker 1: to let him take one. Now, normally, when you have

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Speaker 1: the second overall pick in the draft and you pick

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Speaker 1: a quarterback, you sink or with that guy, right, Like,

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Speaker 1: if Zach Wilson turns out to pop and be good,

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Speaker 1: then he and Joe Douglas will be great. And if

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Speaker 1: he doesn't, it's a tough road. Right. What I'm trying

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Speaker 1: to wrap my head around is that it's very possible

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Speaker 1: that Kyle shannaheaded John Lynch will have traded three ones,

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Speaker 1: possibly tucked himself, talk to himself, Kyle out of the

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Speaker 1: guy he wanted. That's a whole other story, and we've

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Speaker 1: had that conversation. But whatever traded three ones and arrived

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Speaker 1: at trey Lands, it might be a bust and they

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Speaker 1: might get away with it because Rod Party is here bawling.

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Speaker 1: And if that happens, when has it ever happened that?

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Speaker 1: Because that's the kind of thing that you trade three

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Speaker 1: ones and miss at three, you get fired. It sets

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Speaker 1: the franchise back years. They're just cruising. Well. They have

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Speaker 1: they have one advantage. They have so many elite players.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they have two elite linebackers, two elite safeties.

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Speaker 1: They could move one and regain some draft capital. Everybody's

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Speaker 1: looking for pass rushers and you know what I mean,

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Speaker 1: So you know, they could go get a bunch of

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Speaker 1: you know, they could say, listen, who Funga is hitting

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Speaker 1: it out of the park. We could move Jimmy Ward.

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Speaker 1: So they do have the ability outside of the right

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Speaker 1: side of their offensive line. Center right, not a lot

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Speaker 1: of weaknesses with this franchise. They're even at wide receiver.

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Speaker 1: Jennings is a seventh round pick, Elijah Mitchell at six.

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Speaker 1: They've had so many home runs, So might takeaway on

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Speaker 1: the Trey Lance thing is you have to give it

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Speaker 1: another camp in preseason. But here's what worries me. It's

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Speaker 1: by the time next season starts, he's played four games

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Speaker 1: in three years, Mike, it's unprecedented. That's not enough games. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and juxtaposed against the guy who they took him at

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Speaker 1: two sixty two, so let's not go for tending like

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Speaker 1: they thought he was the second coming of Tom Brady.

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Speaker 1: But brock Purdy, to them, had played a lot of

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Speaker 1: games right, became a starter his freshman year at Iowa State,

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Speaker 1: and that showed in trading cap as Trey Lance was

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Speaker 1: struggling with accuracy and maybe struggling with the weight of

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Speaker 1: the situation, and Jimmy Garoppolo was off on his side field,

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Speaker 1: you know, as a spectacle, just throwing waiting to get traded.

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Speaker 1: It seemed brock Purdy was out there going against what's

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Speaker 1: clearly the best defense in football with some swag to him,

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Speaker 1: and you know, the confidence jumped out at people. And

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Speaker 1: I think that's one reason, along with how he's looked

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Speaker 1: that it's worked so well since he's come in. But

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Speaker 1: he was experienced in in a way that Trey Lance

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Speaker 1: wasn't so yeah. I wrote a column for the San

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Speaker 1: Francisco Chronicle recently about what's going to happen next year.

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Speaker 1: Brady had just come to town, and you know, there

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Speaker 1: are really four people I was talking about, and that

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Speaker 1: was Jimmy Garoppolo, who almost certainly will get paid and

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Speaker 1: go elsewhere and has the power to pick his next

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Speaker 1: spot because they can't tag him, nor would they. I

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Speaker 1: don't think Trey Lands, who will still be under the

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Speaker 1: rookie deal, and you have so much invested in brock Purty,

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Speaker 1: obviously a cheap second year of a rookie deal, and

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Speaker 1: you know we'll see a few levels off, but has

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Speaker 1: looked the part early on. And then possibly Tom Brady,

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Speaker 1: who will be a free agent if he wants to

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Speaker 1: keep playing. If they are interested in him as a

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Speaker 1: bridge quarterback and he's interested, you could really keep Purdie

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Speaker 1: a Lance around while you have Brady, and so I

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Speaker 1: could see that. I could also see a situation where

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Speaker 1: if it goes as well as it seems to be

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Speaker 1: going with Purdie, where they say, look, we're keeping the

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Speaker 1: two young guys, We're going to have a competition in camp.

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Speaker 1: But I would be shocked if Brock Purty doesn't win

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Speaker 1: that competition. No, this is not a knock on tree.

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Speaker 1: If you look at what Kyle wants. He wanted Mac

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Speaker 1: Jones accurate. He liked Kirk Cousins accurate, he liked Matt

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Speaker 1: Shob He doesn't like. He doesn't like guys that run

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Speaker 1: out of his play In fact, my knock on him

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Speaker 1: my only knock on Kyle Shanahan, and this may be unfair.

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Speaker 1: He can become beholden to his playsheet. Is that he

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Speaker 1: I mean, he is so focused, Like there are times

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Speaker 1: I'm like, could you let Garoppolo let it rip a little? Well.

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Speaker 1: I want to talk about Brady because Brady refuted your

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Speaker 1: report that he changed bucketing your game plans. I've known

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Speaker 1: you for a long time, one of the reasons I

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Speaker 1: hired you. You're unbelievably connected and you don't bullshit. So

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Speaker 1: I do think Brady's fascinating because he won't take because

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Speaker 1: you're not paying Purty or really Trey Lance anything, and

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Speaker 1: Tom won't take a max steal with this roster not

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Speaker 1: you know, there's just not a lot of money. So

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Speaker 1: I do if I said to you, let's before we

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Speaker 1: get to refuting your report on Brady. I think it

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Speaker 1: feels as his parents age forty sixty, fifty fifty. Well,

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Speaker 1: I mean, where do you land on Brady in the Niners.

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Speaker 1: I believe from talking to people there, that he wants

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Speaker 1: to come back at this point, although you never know,

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Speaker 1: and I believe he's open to other situations. We'll see

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Speaker 1: if Sean Payton gets a job. There was that talk

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Speaker 1: last year, but you know, I know there was a

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Speaker 1: real pull for him three years ago, and Kyle ultimately decided,

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Speaker 1: you know what, I'm gonna ride with Jimmy. We just

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Speaker 1: got to the Super Bowl. Kyle has essentially admitted publicly

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Speaker 1: that well, you know, knowing what we don't know about Brady,

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Speaker 1: you know, we were crazy, and so was anyone else

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Speaker 1: who didn't try to get him. But they hadn't loved

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Speaker 1: his take from twenty nineteen, you know, and now you know,

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Speaker 1: he's had a couple of bad games now, including against them,

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Speaker 1: But and we just have this, you know, we've suspended

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Speaker 1: disbelief and we just believe he's always going to be

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Speaker 1: at this level until he's a hundred, right, which is

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Speaker 1: not going to happen. But you know, there is some

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Speaker 1: alure there, I think on both sides. And you know,

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Speaker 1: first of all, the one part of my report about

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Speaker 1: Brady that we haven't talked about that I know he's

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Speaker 1: not refuting, because we had the conversation very vividly, is

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Speaker 1: that he didn't shower after that game. He's back in

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Speaker 1: front of family and friends, it rains, he plays a big,

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Speaker 1: long game, and he gets out of his jersey slowly

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Speaker 1: and puts on his Tom Brady boxers and gets dressed

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Speaker 1: and seemingly board's across country flight. That's crazy rock star

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Speaker 1: stuff like that. To me, I told him, I go,

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Speaker 1: I think that's probably your most legendary thing in the

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Speaker 1: last five years, maybe other than the Rams come back,

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Speaker 1: you know, winning a super Bowl. That's so I was

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Speaker 1: kind of obsessed with that as far as the other thing.

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Speaker 1: So I kind of put in later on my column

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Speaker 1: as a throwaway that Brady has a meeting with the

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Speaker 1: skill players on Saturdays, just him and them, no coaches,

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Speaker 1: and he kind of goes over the coaches, you know,

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Speaker 1: script and Okay, you know on this one, maybe you

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Speaker 1: do this and just twixx it some and everybody. The

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Speaker 1: skill players, though, and the coaches kind of find out

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Speaker 1: a game day. I was just when I put it in,

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Speaker 1: I was trying to illustrate just how much he has

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Speaker 1: on his plate, and I, you know, I did not

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Speaker 1: discuss that with him in the time we had together

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Speaker 1: after the game, partly honestly because I was so obsessed

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Speaker 1: with the shower thing, and partly because I just hadn't

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Speaker 1: regarded it as a super significant thing when I heard it.

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Speaker 1: But I think what happened is when it came out,

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Speaker 1: it got taken by everyone as this had SETI everything,

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Speaker 1: and I think Todd Bowles and Buyer Leftwich, who also

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Speaker 1: refuted it, probably thought, there it looks like we don't

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Speaker 1: really coach, and Tom is the guy running things, and

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Speaker 1: Tom maybe took it as it looks like I'm going rogue.

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Speaker 1: I didn't get the feeling that anybody was upset about this,

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Speaker 1: that this is you know, And imagine if Peyton Manning

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Speaker 1: were still playing at a high level and he were

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Speaker 1: at the same age as Tom or that age, would

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Speaker 1: you let Peyton Manning be heavily involved in tweaking the

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Speaker 1: plays and telling player You know, of course he would.

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Speaker 1: So I didn't think, you know, the way it was

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Speaker 1: portrayed to be is like, this is a good thing.

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Speaker 1: We have Tom Brady. He's giving heavy input and we're

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Speaker 1: all on the same page. So look, I stand by

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Speaker 1: what I reported, but I do regret that I didn't

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Speaker 1: get a chance to explicitly ask Tom about it. That's

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Speaker 1: on me. Yeah, And by the way, I think what

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Speaker 1: you said there is your takeaway was look at how

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Speaker 1: much Tom has on his plate. Right. It wasn't an

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Speaker 1: indictment of the character or work ethic of the coaches.

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Speaker 1: It was an illustration of this thing's in a little

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Speaker 1: bit of its higher fire and Tom's having to take

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Speaker 1: control of it. I've done that in my career, where

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Speaker 1: I say something or I tell a story and people

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Speaker 1: take it to be harsh when I'm just trying to

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Speaker 1: illuminate something. So I mean, I get it, but it

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Speaker 1: You know, so many things are interesting with the forty

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Speaker 1: nine ers. Somebody was saying them to me recently, and

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Speaker 1: I apologize for anybody listening to the podcast we were

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Speaker 1: talking about this. It may have been Jason McIntyre said

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Speaker 1: this on the show. The only thing worse than making

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Speaker 1: a draft mistake is doubling down on it. And what's

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Speaker 1: interesting about Trey Lance is because of his lack of

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Speaker 1: playing and esthetically, he has struggled with accuracy. I know

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Speaker 1: this because I was told the Niners literally went and

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Speaker 1: called a quarterback coach last year in preseason I won't

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Speaker 1: give his name away, and said, all hands on deck,

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Speaker 1: we got an issue here. So it was a real issue.

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Speaker 1: Then we watched him play twice and we're like, oh,

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Speaker 1: it is an issue. It's a little Zach Wilson. He's

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Speaker 1: missing layups, he's missing the easy stuff, and I don't

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Speaker 1: think I don't think the Niners ask a ton of

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Speaker 1: their quarterbacks. They really don't. It's kind of a Chris Paul,

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Speaker 1: get the ball to the shooter, get the ball in

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Speaker 1: the lane. Right. You're not asking them to be Steph

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Speaker 1: Curry and hit thirty two footers off balance like sometimes

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Speaker 1: Kansas City or the Chargers or the Bills asked their

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Speaker 1: quarterback to be Superman. Right. So the question with Trey

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Speaker 1: is pretty's accurate? Tray's not and let us they go

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Speaker 1: to camp. Yeah, there are times where Trey was accurate.

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Speaker 1: It's that he wasn't consistently accurate and when it looked

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Speaker 1: really bad. Um. So here's what I would say on Trey.

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Speaker 1: One thing that seems to me to be the case,

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Speaker 1: and this is from talking to some people on the

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Speaker 1: inside too. Um, that athleticism that they believed they saw.

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Speaker 1: You know, when you're running circles around Montana State. That's cool,

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Speaker 1: but it's not necessarily the same thing as doing and

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Speaker 1: in the SEC right. I think they thought he could

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Speaker 1: get outside a little bit more than what could point counter.

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Speaker 1: And he's not like Josh Allen could do it, Lamar,

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Speaker 1: Heaven knows that Justin Fields could do it, right, Um,

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Speaker 1: there's some people who can do it. And Josh played

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Speaker 1: at a lower level of Wyoming, which is still higher

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Speaker 1: than North Dakota State. So people were like, why was

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Speaker 1: Kyle running him inside when he got hurt? Why why

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Speaker 1: did he keep running him inside. I think he was

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Speaker 1: running him inside because he couldn't get outside. And so

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Speaker 1: if that's the case, that's not on tray, that's a

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Speaker 1: failure in the scouting process. I've always clung to the

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Speaker 1: fact that he's very very intelligent and what Kyle does

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Speaker 1: ask what Kyle does ask, He's understand this very high

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Speaker 1: concept thing we're doing and know how to get it

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Speaker 1: to the right person. So that is that's always been

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Speaker 1: exciting to me. But if you have accuracy, that's not there,

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Speaker 1: and you don't have crazy athleticism. They were excited about

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Speaker 1: the deep ball that's kind of gone away, but you know,

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Speaker 1: not the Trey, But I mean with Jimmy had brought party,

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Speaker 1: it's less of a part of their offense than they intended.

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Speaker 1: And they drafted a guy Danny Gray, who really hasn't

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Speaker 1: been on the field. But um, you know, look, your

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Speaker 1: depiction of what they're doing is very accurate. And Robert

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Speaker 1: Saul and I actually have had the conversation about how

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Speaker 1: many elite players they have at many positions, and that

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Speaker 1: allows you a lot of leeway in that situation. What

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Speaker 1: I haven't seen from Purdy yet. I did see him

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Speaker 1: go on the road, I did see him deal with

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Speaker 1: a loud crowd in Seattle. I did see him play hurt,

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Speaker 1: you know, on a short week. So all that's really

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Speaker 1: you know, uplifting. What I what I need to see

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Speaker 1: decks from Purdy is you're down fourteen points in the

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Speaker 1: fourth quarter or you are, you need to really do

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Speaker 1: something special with the ball, you know, on a deep

424
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:53,840
Speaker 1: out or something, and that the game hinges on that.

425
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:58,920
Speaker 1: And will he you know, no quarterbacks perfect and you know, look,

426
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:02,040
Speaker 1: Jimmy Garoppolo was playing at a pretty high level. If

427
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:05,480
Speaker 1: Jimmy Garoppolo got down by fourteen points in the playoffs

428
00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:08,360
Speaker 1: this year, had he not got hurt and then threw

429
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 1: a pick, you know, it would have happened. The world

430
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:12,640
Speaker 1: would to say, he's not good enough. You can only

431
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:14,679
Speaker 1: go so far with him. He can't with a big one.

432
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 1: It's very possible that that could happen to brock Purty.

433
00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:20,440
Speaker 1: And given where we are in the season. It's possible

434
00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:23,920
Speaker 1: that could happen in Philadelphia or in the super Bowl,

435
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:28,440
Speaker 1: or you know when Tom Brady beats Dallas in the

436
00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:31,720
Speaker 1: playoffs and that comes back to Levi's and rips out

437
00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:36,720
Speaker 1: their souls and you know whatever it is. Well, the

438
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:40,280
Speaker 1: greatest come from behind quarterback ever, statistically is Patrick Mahomes,

439
00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:42,879
Speaker 1: and he's the best quarterback. The great quarterbacks can do.

440
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:47,920
Speaker 1: Two things. Score is irrelevant. Even with Aaron Rodgers top

441
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:51,760
Speaker 1: ten quarterback ever, score is relevant, He's not as good

442
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:55,440
Speaker 1: from behind. Mahomes wins over fifty five percent of the games,

443
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:59,440
Speaker 1: he's trailed by ten points. That's historically makes no sense.

444
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:03,200
Speaker 1: The second thing great quarterbacks do is beat great teams.

445
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:05,959
Speaker 1: Two was a great example, five and oh against non

446
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:09,840
Speaker 1: playoff teams. Dragged against three playoff teams. Now he'll go

447
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:13,200
Speaker 1: home against Green Bay and he'll win a game because

448
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:15,760
Speaker 1: they probably won't make the playoffs. So I think with

449
00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:19,119
Speaker 1: pretty your concerns are very real. He's playing with the

450
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 1: lead and he's beating man. So as when you get

451
00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:27,720
Speaker 1: to the playoffs, you're at Philadelphia, you trail. That's I

452
00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 1: remember saying this about Baker Mayfield. Baker Mayfield when he

453
00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 1: had Nick Chubb and throwing on second and four, Baker

454
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:39,200
Speaker 1: Mayfield was really effective, sure trailing, totally different cornerback. And like,

455
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:41,840
Speaker 1: it's interesting talking about the forty nine ers. I'm really

456
00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:44,639
Speaker 1: torn because I know how good they are and I

457
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:48,760
Speaker 1: see how they're rolling and got've gotten healthier, and I

458
00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:51,600
Speaker 1: feel that vibe and I look at the NFC and

459
00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:54,840
Speaker 1: I'm thinking they should win that conference in my opinion,

460
00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:57,600
Speaker 1: not a given, but that's there. But then if you

461
00:27:57,720 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 1: really break it down, they've beat two teams that currently

462
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:05,440
Speaker 1: have winning records, that's the Dolphins, who are eight and

463
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:08,080
Speaker 1: six on the Chargers who were eight and six, beat

464
00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:12,080
Speaker 1: the Seahawks who or seven and seven twice. They've lost

465
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:15,440
Speaker 1: to one team that currently has a winning record, that's

466
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:17,800
Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs. And it was not close. They

467
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:21,679
Speaker 1: got rolled. Now McCaffrey had just gotten there. They had

468
00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 1: some health issues. Tre Various Ward wasn't right, but that

469
00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 1: was not a if that was a Super Bowl preview,

470
00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:32,200
Speaker 1: we hope it wasn't because the Chiefs were way better

471
00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:35,760
Speaker 1: that day. So you know, I want to make sure

472
00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:37,720
Speaker 1: I don't get too ahead of myself on it. But

473
00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:39,800
Speaker 1: I saw your tweet the other night when I was

474
00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:43,000
Speaker 1: working in Seattle with Rock Ferdie and the you know,

475
00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:46,760
Speaker 1: and I'm thinking, yeah he might. Now I think the

476
00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:49,640
Speaker 1: counterpoint to that would be, even if Brockfurdie gets to

477
00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:55,280
Speaker 1: the super Bowl, get ready for Purdie versus Burrow Urdie

478
00:28:55,480 --> 00:29:02,880
Speaker 1: versus Olden Burdie versus mahomes Lamar Like, it's probably going

479
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 1: to be one of those like, whoa does it mean

480
00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:09,760
Speaker 1: he can't win with that team? So finally we've taken

481
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:13,400
Speaker 1: enough of your time. I said this the other day.

482
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:17,280
Speaker 1: It doesn't matter. You're you're employed by multiple people Metal

483
00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:21,160
Speaker 1: Lark Media, me Bally, San Francisco Chronicle. You have four employers,

484
00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:24,560
Speaker 1: so you could have more, and one boss who's down

485
00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:26,880
Speaker 1: the hall over there, she's getting ready for you president.

486
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:30,280
Speaker 1: We all have that boss. Yes, yeah, So I've always

487
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 1: said you'll your value is ultimately decided on an open market.

488
00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 1: The media critics can like you or not like you.

489
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 1: You're on the open market. And I said this about

490
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:44,600
Speaker 1: the Raiders and Derek Carr. It may be time. I

491
00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 1: think you can make a valid argument that the Raiders

492
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 1: can move off him because they've got some holes. And

493
00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:53,120
Speaker 1: I think you can get a first and a fifth

494
00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 1: or a first and a fourth for him. Maybe it's

495
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 1: a second and a fourth. I don't know. But I

496
00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 1: also think Derek would have a very dynamic market. I

497
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:02,800
Speaker 1: think if you put him in New York with that

498
00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 1: defense and Breece Hall, Hello, that's a playoff team. So

499
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:11,960
Speaker 1: it's interesting you can be two things at once. Have

500
00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 1: an excellent market and the Raiders need to rebuild. He's

501
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 1: not a dead cap hit and Will Levis has a

502
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 1: big arm. Josh McDaniels. Look what he did to Mac

503
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:25,000
Speaker 1: Jones year one. Look what's happened to him since he left?

504
00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:28,720
Speaker 1: What do you make of car the Raiders? Because I

505
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 1: can see Mike them saying we like him, but if

506
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:35,440
Speaker 1: we can get a second one and a second three,

507
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 1: because I think they already have two, five, multiple sixes,

508
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:40,960
Speaker 1: what do you make of the Raiders situation? Yeah, that's

509
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:43,080
Speaker 1: a great point, and I'm going to see them in

510
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:46,200
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks and I'll have a stronger opinion.

511
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:49,680
Speaker 1: But you know, I think here's why that makes sense.

512
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 1: Number One, the owner was the owner had the wandering

513
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 1: guy for years on Car Wonder, Russell Wilson, you know

514
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:58,920
Speaker 1: he was he was just kind of like, hey, can

515
00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:01,680
Speaker 1: we get a super star for the move to Vegas.

516
00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:08,400
Speaker 1: I think they paid enough guys around him that you

517
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:14,840
Speaker 1: could benefit from a situation where your quarterback is on

518
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 1: a rookie deal at first, right, because you paid Waller,

519
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 1: you paid Renfro, you paid Davante. Now DeVante came there

520
00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 1: because of Derek Carr, so you've got to deal with

521
00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:26,760
Speaker 1: the politics of that. But you paid Crosby as you should.

522
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 1: You know, you paid Chandler Jones. Maybe you wish you

523
00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:33,680
Speaker 1: had not, although you do now after that one play.

524
00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:38,760
Speaker 1: But yeah, so I think that's it. And I do

525
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:43,080
Speaker 1: think Derek Carr would have a big market. And by

526
00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 1: the way, Garoppolo as a bridge quarterback would be on

527
00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 1: the table for Josh, depending on how he feels about him.

528
00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 1: I think this is what I would say about Derek Carr.

529
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:57,640
Speaker 1: He's very intelligent. You know, you could definitely win with him.

530
00:31:57,680 --> 00:31:59,520
Speaker 1: He might. He's not going to elevate you the way

531
00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 1: Mahome does. Who can. But the sneaky thing about Derek

532
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 1: Carr that people don't really talk about is his clutch

533
00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 1: performance metrics are And maybe I know this more because

534
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:15,960
Speaker 1: I covered a lot of Raider games when he was

535
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:20,160
Speaker 1: in Oakland. He's got a lot of comfort behind victories,

536
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:25,120
Speaker 1: clutch wins fourth quarters, like, it's not an anomaly. His

537
00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:29,240
Speaker 1: numbers are very, very close to the top since he's

538
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:31,240
Speaker 1: been in the league. And I have to go look

539
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:33,440
Speaker 1: that up again. There's different ways to measure it. But

540
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 1: he's a guy who can take you back when you're

541
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:40,360
Speaker 1: down at the end and lead that game when he drives.

542
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 1: So yeah, I think he'd have a real market. You know,

543
00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:46,240
Speaker 1: some new guys are going to come to the league

544
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:50,600
Speaker 1: and Jimmy's out there, but really it's not like we

545
00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:54,800
Speaker 1: have this crazy abundance of you know, frontline quarterbacks, and

546
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 1: he would probably be the most attractive free agent on

547
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 1: the market other than you know, in recent years, other

548
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:06,000
Speaker 1: than Russell who was kind of an anomaly and Brady

549
00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:10,080
Speaker 1: who was an anomaly. He'd probably be the guy that

550
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:14,800
Speaker 1: got the most hit. Well. This year, Kirk Cousins has

551
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:20,440
Speaker 1: seven fourth quarter wins, like come from behind? Why because

552
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:22,920
Speaker 1: when you get to year eight and nine, Brady talked

553
00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 1: about this years ago, He's like, I've seen every defense. Yeah,

554
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:28,880
Speaker 1: Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins have trailed in a lot

555
00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:32,680
Speaker 1: of games late. Yeah, you know, situation Car's numbers have

556
00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:35,080
Speaker 1: always It's weird, like if you look back, even when

557
00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 1: they're not good, the teams he's on, a lot of

558
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 1: his wins were come from behind in the fourth quarter.

559
00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 1: Kind of wish I had the numbers in front of me.

560
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:46,480
Speaker 1: But yeah, no, you're right, and he's in a stage

561
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:50,200
Speaker 1: where he's seen it and he's you know, nobody is

562
00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:52,960
Speaker 1: going to ever say Derek Carr doesn't process it fast

563
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 1: or Derek Carr doesn't have a grasp of the game.

564
00:33:55,760 --> 00:34:00,320
Speaker 1: And also, you know, he talked about franchise quarterbacks like

565
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:04,280
Speaker 1: he's gonna take it really seriously. He's not. He's not

566
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 1: gonna screw Yeah. Time for Chad Millman, ce CEO Action Network.

567
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:16,400
Speaker 1: All odds provided by fan Duel. So it's interesting. Sometimes

568
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:18,800
Speaker 1: I'll look at the numbers. You peruse the numbers, and

569
00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:22,600
Speaker 1: I just see a bunch of things I don't like.

570
00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 1: There's always one game that jumps out to me. This week,

571
00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 1: I actually saw several I liked. Now at this point,

572
00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:35,400
Speaker 1: I'm not getting the best number. Commanders getting a touchdown

573
00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:38,120
Speaker 1: at the Niners looked very interesting to me because I

574
00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:41,200
Speaker 1: thought largely they outplayed the Giants. I think they have

575
00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 1: a talented roster. I can see the forty nine ers

576
00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:47,120
Speaker 1: looking ahead. I also think you're gonna get a little

577
00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:51,000
Speaker 1: pushback or a little pullback on Purdy. There's now multiple

578
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 1: games on Brock Purdy. There's limitations. Ron Revere has been

579
00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:57,360
Speaker 1: in this league as a defensive guy for a long time.

580
00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:01,920
Speaker 1: My gut feeling is it's a little ugly low scoring.

581
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:04,479
Speaker 1: I'd rather get seven and a half. I'll take seven

582
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:09,120
Speaker 1: sharper square. Oh my god, you are coming in hot.

583
00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:14,240
Speaker 1: The holiday season has you prepped to be very, very sharp,

584
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 1: and personally, I feel like this is a gift to me.

585
00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:21,319
Speaker 1: I feel like all of the teachings are coming back

586
00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:26,440
Speaker 1: to me tenfold right now. Totally sharp. The wise guys

587
00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:29,759
Speaker 1: love this game. You mentioned a lot to break down here,

588
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:31,920
Speaker 1: and it's worth sort of spending the time on it

589
00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:34,960
Speaker 1: because it's a really interesting game because it features a

590
00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:38,879
Speaker 1: commander's team that a lot of people feel like they

591
00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:43,400
Speaker 1: saw get beat in prime time against a Brock Purty

592
00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:46,400
Speaker 1: led Niners team that is the hottest team in the NFL,

593
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:49,800
Speaker 1: with a quarterback who people are now making all the

594
00:35:49,920 --> 00:35:52,160
Speaker 1: regular comparisons you make when you've got a guy who

595
00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:56,640
Speaker 1: comes out of nowhere to do something great. That Commander's

596
00:35:56,680 --> 00:36:00,359
Speaker 1: team should have won that game. The other night they

597
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:04,280
Speaker 1: outplayed Giants. You know, we do this thing at Action

598
00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:07,520
Speaker 1: Network called the Luck Rankings, and it categorized. It takes

599
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:09,560
Speaker 1: a lot of different sort of factors from the game,

600
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:12,719
Speaker 1: puts them all into one bucket and basically says, these

601
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:18,440
Speaker 1: teams outperformed expectations. These teams underperformed expectations based on the

602
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:26,200
Speaker 1: plays that defy expectations read zone failures, random turnovers, penalty calls. Right,

603
00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:29,680
Speaker 1: the Giants and the Commanders had all of those at

604
00:36:29,719 --> 00:36:32,399
Speaker 1: opposite ends. The Commanders, if you play the game out,

605
00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 1: according to the stats, should have won that game. Meanwhile,

606
00:36:36,560 --> 00:36:38,640
Speaker 1: they're going on the road. They're playing the hottest team

607
00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:42,120
Speaker 1: in the NFL. The inflation in this game is massive, right,

608
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:47,360
Speaker 1: And Kyle Shannon in this spot tends to play more conservative.

609
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:51,160
Speaker 1: He's terrible as a huge favorite. His decision making changes.

610
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:56,280
Speaker 1: And you know who brock Purty could be Taylor Heineken,

611
00:36:56,760 --> 00:36:59,840
Speaker 1: meaning he came in, he's a baller, he makes the

612
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:02,160
Speaker 1: right decisions. And then all of a sudden you get

613
00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:04,440
Speaker 1: film on the guy and you're like, should we go

614
00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:06,960
Speaker 1: back to crosson wentz do we wish we had Jimmy

615
00:37:07,040 --> 00:37:10,880
Speaker 1: g So, yeah, there is a lot of sentiment that

616
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:13,520
Speaker 1: loves the Commanders. And one more thing to think about,

617
00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:17,720
Speaker 1: strictly from a bookmaker point of view, they are begging

618
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:20,080
Speaker 1: you to bet the Commanders when you have low totals

619
00:37:20,160 --> 00:37:22,200
Speaker 1: like this, and the totals about thirty eight in this game,

620
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:25,480
Speaker 1: the bookmakers are expecting a low scoring game. That's what

621
00:37:25,560 --> 00:37:28,960
Speaker 1: they're telling you. Low scoring games with pretty big numbers

622
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:32,640
Speaker 1: in terms of the spread tend to play to the underdog.

623
00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:35,759
Speaker 1: The bookmakers are giving you a couple of points here

624
00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:38,440
Speaker 1: because they want they want you to bet on the Commanders,

625
00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:40,719
Speaker 1: because all the tickets, all the squares, they're coming in

626
00:37:40,840 --> 00:37:47,359
Speaker 1: on the Niners. Great call, Colin, great call. I wish

627
00:37:47,400 --> 00:37:51,680
Speaker 1: the number was three. Similarly to the Commanders, the numbers

628
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:55,760
Speaker 1: not ideal, but I think it's pullback time for the Lions.

629
00:37:56,800 --> 00:38:02,120
Speaker 1: The Panthers defensive front is pretty interesting. Darnold's always been

630
00:38:02,239 --> 00:38:08,200
Speaker 1: better when he's pretty comfortable. Sam on the road, Sam

631
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:12,120
Speaker 1: and bad weather get out of here. But this feels

632
00:38:12,160 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 1: low scoring. You're getting to the point with the Lions

633
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 1: now that the casuals that the squares are jumping in

634
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:22,719
Speaker 1: on the Lions to this point, there are a better

635
00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:26,480
Speaker 1: story than a team. Caroline is a way better team

636
00:38:26,560 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 1: than a story. I'm going to take the home team

637
00:38:29,040 --> 00:38:32,160
Speaker 1: plus two and a half sharper square. Oh my god, Colin,

638
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:34,359
Speaker 1: It's it's like you're in my head. It's like you've

639
00:38:34,360 --> 00:38:37,239
Speaker 1: been in my notes that I've been sort of collecting

640
00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:40,000
Speaker 1: all day. The first thing you said is the most

641
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:43,680
Speaker 1: important thing. You like it better at three. If you

642
00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:46,000
Speaker 1: can find this number at three, What I would recommend

643
00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:49,520
Speaker 1: to people is you wait, because, as you noted, the

644
00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:52,960
Speaker 1: public is coming in hard on the Lions. Very possible

645
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:55,000
Speaker 1: it comes Sunday. This line gets back up to three.

646
00:38:55,880 --> 00:38:58,840
Speaker 1: But the wise guys do like the Panthers here. The

647
00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:02,359
Speaker 1: Panthers since Am Darnold has been playing, have just been

648
00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 1: a better, more consistent, more predictable team. They're sixth against

649
00:39:07,560 --> 00:39:10,960
Speaker 1: the pass in DVA. Since Week ten, their sack rate

650
00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:14,720
Speaker 1: over the past six weeks has improved. You've got Jared

651
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:19,239
Speaker 1: Goff who struggles against pressure, struggles away from home when

652
00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:21,640
Speaker 1: he's outside. You look at that Jets game, it's another

653
00:39:21,680 --> 00:39:24,719
Speaker 1: one similar to the Commander's game. The Jets should have

654
00:39:24,760 --> 00:39:28,400
Speaker 1: won that game, and if not for that fourth and

655
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:31,719
Speaker 1: inches passed to a backup tight end who scores a

656
00:39:31,760 --> 00:39:35,719
Speaker 1: touchdown from fifty five yards away. The Lions struggle to

657
00:39:35,800 --> 00:39:39,960
Speaker 1: score six points on offense. So you're completely on the

658
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:43,600
Speaker 1: right side here. See if you want to get you

659
00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:47,440
Speaker 1: see if you can get the three on Sunday or saturdaymmy, Okay.

660
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 1: I like the Bears last week. I like them again

661
00:39:50,239 --> 00:39:52,440
Speaker 1: plus eight and a half with the Bills. Bills come

662
00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:56,000
Speaker 1: off a highly emotional divisional game. It could be minus

663
00:39:56,160 --> 00:39:59,719
Speaker 1: fifteen degrees in Chicago. I think the Bears can match

664
00:39:59,840 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 1: up in the trenches where the Bills old line outside

665
00:40:03,160 --> 00:40:07,800
Speaker 1: of center is not great and their defensive lineman ed

666
00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:10,759
Speaker 1: Oliver pushed around against Miami. They ran for almost one

667
00:40:10,840 --> 00:40:14,800
Speaker 1: hundred and ninety yards. Bills probably win. I think the

668
00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:18,560
Speaker 1: Bears are playing hard, a lot of young players. Stuff's

669
00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:22,799
Speaker 1: being put on film, new GM, new coach, They're still

670
00:40:22,880 --> 00:40:26,000
Speaker 1: being graded. I would take the Bears plus eight and

671
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:29,600
Speaker 1: a half on an ugly game. Sharper square, totally sharp.

672
00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:31,440
Speaker 1: This game opened at nine and a half, it got

673
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:34,160
Speaker 1: bit down to nine, got that down to eight and

674
00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:37,080
Speaker 1: a half. The wise guys still like it. We've talked

675
00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:41,520
Speaker 1: about this. I'd say, the past three weeks almost a month,

676
00:40:41,960 --> 00:40:45,320
Speaker 1: we talked about taking the Rams as big dogs. We

677
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:48,000
Speaker 1: talked about taking I think it was against Seattle it

678
00:40:48,120 --> 00:40:51,240
Speaker 1: was like eight and a half. We talked about taking

679
00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:57,360
Speaker 1: the Broncos as big dogs against the Chiefs. That covered

680
00:40:57,520 --> 00:40:59,719
Speaker 1: last week. We talked about taking the Bears as big

681
00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:03,560
Speaker 1: against Philly. Forget about what you're seeing on the field.

682
00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:06,560
Speaker 1: All your analysis is right. This is about betting, right,

683
00:41:06,640 --> 00:41:08,879
Speaker 1: and sometimes betting is not about the field. It's about

684
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:13,160
Speaker 1: the number. And we've talked about this stat the past

685
00:41:13,200 --> 00:41:15,120
Speaker 1: six years. When you've got teams that have a really

686
00:41:15,200 --> 00:41:17,480
Speaker 1: high winning percentage playing teams that would have a really

687
00:41:17,680 --> 00:41:20,800
Speaker 1: low winning percentage, the team with the low winning percentage

688
00:41:20,840 --> 00:41:23,520
Speaker 1: covers about sixty percent of the time. And the reason

689
00:41:23,719 --> 00:41:28,959
Speaker 1: is because of basic gambling math. Bookmakers set a number

690
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:31,239
Speaker 1: that is really really high for the team that has

691
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:34,120
Speaker 1: been playing really really well all season long, because they

692
00:41:34,200 --> 00:41:35,680
Speaker 1: know the public is going to come in and bet

693
00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:39,000
Speaker 1: it no matter what. They don't care what's happening on

694
00:41:39,120 --> 00:41:41,239
Speaker 1: the other side. They move the number a little bit

695
00:41:41,400 --> 00:41:43,520
Speaker 1: only if the wise guys come in so hard they

696
00:41:43,600 --> 00:41:46,360
Speaker 1: feel like they have to move the number because they

697
00:41:46,440 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 1: see that they set it a little bit too high.

698
00:41:48,400 --> 00:41:50,000
Speaker 1: It's going to cost them a little bit of cash.

699
00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 1: But the wise guys are on the bears. Here. I'm

700
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:57,279
Speaker 1: going to tell you a favorite I really like. So

701
00:41:57,760 --> 00:42:02,200
Speaker 1: I believe extra time with good coaches matters a lot

702
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:06,640
Speaker 1: Bowl games off of buy in the NFL, I think

703
00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:11,560
Speaker 1: we have ourselves a borderline football genius in Mike McDaniel

704
00:42:11,760 --> 00:42:17,120
Speaker 1: who completely out game planned and outschemed Sean McDermott. Time

705
00:42:17,160 --> 00:42:21,160
Speaker 1: of possession shutdown. Stefon Diggs had one hundred ninety yards

706
00:42:21,239 --> 00:42:26,480
Speaker 1: rushing one time of possession. They outplayed the Bills two

707
00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:31,480
Speaker 1: days extra prep packers. On Monday night. The Dolphins were

708
00:42:31,600 --> 00:42:34,839
Speaker 1: five and oh against non playoff teams oh and three

709
00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:38,719
Speaker 1: against playoff teams on the road. They come back home

710
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:44,640
Speaker 1: for a non playoff team. Green Bay's not beating Miami, Minnesota,

711
00:42:44,719 --> 00:42:47,880
Speaker 1: and Detroit. This is a team that can't stop the

712
00:42:48,160 --> 00:42:51,880
Speaker 1: run at all. I get the sharpest young coach in

713
00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:55,240
Speaker 1: the game. Two are now comfortable with a disappointing season

714
00:42:55,320 --> 00:43:00,279
Speaker 1: long pass rush. I'm taking Miami and in fact, I

715
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:04,359
Speaker 1: never do this. On Blazing five thirty to seventeen, they

716
00:43:04,400 --> 00:43:07,480
Speaker 1: went by two touchdowns. I know it's square. But it's

717
00:43:07,520 --> 00:43:12,759
Speaker 1: fun anyway. Sharper square. All right. So I know you

718
00:43:12,960 --> 00:43:15,799
Speaker 1: like to ski. I know you like to get out

719
00:43:16,040 --> 00:43:22,720
Speaker 1: into the wilderness. You're skiing over your tips on this one, Okay,

720
00:43:23,320 --> 00:43:29,480
Speaker 1: going going thirty to seventeen calling out a number. What

721
00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 1: are you doing? Why would you why would you give

722
00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 1: more than you have to? The wise guys love the Packers. Okay,

723
00:43:37,640 --> 00:43:39,560
Speaker 1: this game opened to five and a half, got bit

724
00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:41,879
Speaker 1: down to five, got that down to four and a half,

725
00:43:42,200 --> 00:43:45,080
Speaker 1: got it down to four, got bit down to three

726
00:43:45,120 --> 00:43:49,279
Speaker 1: and a half. I will tell you three and a

727
00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:51,520
Speaker 1: half seems to be the floor for this game. When

728
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:53,440
Speaker 1: it gets to three and a half, the professionals come

729
00:43:53,480 --> 00:43:56,120
Speaker 1: back in immediately, got that up to four. So this

730
00:43:56,320 --> 00:44:00,640
Speaker 1: is about a number situation, not what's happened on the field.

731
00:44:00,960 --> 00:44:05,640
Speaker 1: The reason they like the Packers is because five and

732
00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:07,960
Speaker 1: a half is a really big number for this Miami

733
00:44:08,040 --> 00:44:10,319
Speaker 1: team that has struggled of late. And we talked about

734
00:44:10,360 --> 00:44:13,440
Speaker 1: this probably a month ago. We saw Miami was going

735
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:14,880
Speaker 1: to have to go on the road. They were going

736
00:44:14,920 --> 00:44:17,520
Speaker 1: to have to play San Francisco, They're gonna have to

737
00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:20,480
Speaker 1: play Los Angeles, They're gonna have to play Buffalo and

738
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:22,560
Speaker 1: I think what a lot of wise guys feel is

739
00:44:22,640 --> 00:44:27,040
Speaker 1: that those teams showed a blueprint for beating Mike McDaniels.

740
00:44:27,120 --> 00:44:30,600
Speaker 1: You're jamming the Dolphins receivers, trying not to let them

741
00:44:30,640 --> 00:44:33,680
Speaker 1: get ahead of steam and get downfield. The Packers defense

742
00:44:33,800 --> 00:44:37,480
Speaker 1: is not very good, especially against the run. So what

743
00:44:37,640 --> 00:44:41,280
Speaker 1: they are good at is in their defensive backfield, defending

744
00:44:41,280 --> 00:44:45,080
Speaker 1: against the past. Zaria Alexander made the Pro Bowl. That

745
00:44:45,400 --> 00:44:48,279
Speaker 1: is a huge advantage for the Packers. That's why the

746
00:44:48,360 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 1: wise guys started like this team. I also feel like

747
00:44:51,400 --> 00:44:54,439
Speaker 1: the Packers have not been a complete offensive team this year,

748
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:57,840
Speaker 1: and you're starting to get comfortable with Watson, Romeo Dobbs

749
00:44:57,880 --> 00:45:00,239
Speaker 1: coming back fair I think that they feel this is

750
00:45:00,239 --> 00:45:03,160
Speaker 1: their opportunity to get to the playoffs. I think you'll

751
00:45:03,200 --> 00:45:05,040
Speaker 1: get a competitive game. I don't think it'll be a

752
00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:09,160
Speaker 1: thirteen point win for the Dolphins. The wise guys like

753
00:45:09,280 --> 00:45:13,520
Speaker 1: the number at anything four and above. Okay, so now

754
00:45:13,600 --> 00:45:16,439
Speaker 1: I always close with two things. First of all, there's

755
00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:19,560
Speaker 1: a game I'm on I can be pushed in or

756
00:45:19,640 --> 00:45:23,040
Speaker 1: out of, and it's Raiders plus three at Pittsburgh. The

757
00:45:23,160 --> 00:45:26,279
Speaker 1: number on FanDuel minus two and a half three I've

758
00:45:26,560 --> 00:45:28,960
Speaker 1: said this for weeks. I think Josh McDaniel is going

759
00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:31,960
Speaker 1: to get it right. I like him. There are in

760
00:45:31,960 --> 00:45:34,640
Speaker 1: a lot of one possession games. My knock on him

761
00:45:34,680 --> 00:45:37,719
Speaker 1: as he gets conservative sometimes with a lead. But I

762
00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:41,400
Speaker 1: just don't think Pittsburgh is good enough to swallow three points.

763
00:45:42,960 --> 00:45:44,880
Speaker 1: You tell me where I should go. I'm interested in

764
00:45:45,000 --> 00:45:48,520
Speaker 1: what you what side you would take. So the line

765
00:45:48,560 --> 00:45:50,719
Speaker 1: has moved to two, and when I was at three,

766
00:45:50,800 --> 00:45:54,160
Speaker 1: it was a pass at two. I kind of like

767
00:45:54,360 --> 00:45:58,239
Speaker 1: the Steelers. I think their defense is really really good

768
00:45:58,520 --> 00:46:01,400
Speaker 1: and that's been what's keeping them five in the second

769
00:46:01,440 --> 00:46:04,440
Speaker 1: half of the season. I'm a big Kenny Pickett fan.

770
00:46:04,680 --> 00:46:09,000
Speaker 1: I felt like he was a complete gamer when he

771
00:46:09,160 --> 00:46:12,600
Speaker 1: came in for miss Drubisky and got them close in

772
00:46:12,680 --> 00:46:14,799
Speaker 1: games against the Jets team. Let's look at that first

773
00:46:14,840 --> 00:46:18,000
Speaker 1: game he played against that Jets team. He almost had

774
00:46:18,040 --> 00:46:20,320
Speaker 1: them win that game against the Jets team that we

775
00:46:20,440 --> 00:46:23,400
Speaker 1: clearly think is much better than we thought, right, So

776
00:46:24,840 --> 00:46:29,040
Speaker 1: that's number one. Number two, he had that bye week

777
00:46:29,640 --> 00:46:33,520
Speaker 1: and came back and was significantly better than he had

778
00:46:33,560 --> 00:46:36,360
Speaker 1: been prior to the bye. So all of a sudden,

779
00:46:36,360 --> 00:46:39,479
Speaker 1: he's getting comfortable. He was making plays for this team

780
00:46:39,560 --> 00:46:43,560
Speaker 1: just as an athlete. So now he's coming back with

781
00:46:43,840 --> 00:46:49,400
Speaker 1: this defense in this weather. An emotional weekend in Pittsburgh

782
00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:54,200
Speaker 1: fiftieth anniversary of Immaculate Reception. Frank o'haris dying this week.

783
00:46:55,080 --> 00:46:57,560
Speaker 1: That is a town that gets behind this team. I

784
00:46:57,640 --> 00:47:01,080
Speaker 1: would like to be a short home favorite against the

785
00:47:01,280 --> 00:47:05,640
Speaker 1: Raiders and b the Steelers this weekend. Finally, a game

786
00:47:05,680 --> 00:47:08,440
Speaker 1: that maybe gross I haven't mentioned, but you have a

787
00:47:08,640 --> 00:47:14,479
Speaker 1: strong opinion at the Action Network on it. Not really,

788
00:47:14,560 --> 00:47:17,040
Speaker 1: these are roles grotesque and by the way, I bet

789
00:47:17,160 --> 00:47:20,719
Speaker 1: some of these and I've done pretty well. It works out.

790
00:47:23,680 --> 00:47:26,239
Speaker 1: How about the New England Patriots at plus three and

791
00:47:26,280 --> 00:47:31,920
Speaker 1: a half against the Cincinnati Bengals. Gross, it's gross, and listen,

792
00:47:32,640 --> 00:47:37,400
Speaker 1: I have loved the Bengals all season long, loved him

793
00:47:37,440 --> 00:47:41,320
Speaker 1: even more, not since not since Joe Burrow started to

794
00:47:41,360 --> 00:47:43,560
Speaker 1: get more comfortable and sort of play out of the rust,

795
00:47:44,000 --> 00:47:47,200
Speaker 1: but really since DJ Reader came back, that team has

796
00:47:47,239 --> 00:47:51,360
Speaker 1: just been consistently better, and I've been betting them often

797
00:47:51,640 --> 00:47:53,560
Speaker 1: in spots where you normally wouldn't want to bet them.

798
00:47:55,840 --> 00:47:59,120
Speaker 1: This week, the Pats are at the lowest point you're

799
00:47:59,120 --> 00:48:01,440
Speaker 1: going to get them, and the Bengals are at the

800
00:48:01,560 --> 00:48:04,080
Speaker 1: highest point you're going to get them. And we talk

801
00:48:04,120 --> 00:48:07,239
Speaker 1: about what the wise guys look at isn't so much

802
00:48:07,719 --> 00:48:10,640
Speaker 1: the final score of a game. They look at the

803
00:48:10,920 --> 00:48:13,279
Speaker 1: yards per play in a game. They look at their

804
00:48:13,400 --> 00:48:17,000
Speaker 1: randomness in a game. I mentioned the luck rankings earlier. Right,

805
00:48:17,920 --> 00:48:20,719
Speaker 1: the Bucks were dominating that game against the Bengals, and

806
00:48:20,760 --> 00:48:23,120
Speaker 1: they had four turnovers. They were up seven team nothing

807
00:48:23,640 --> 00:48:25,919
Speaker 1: in the first half. You're right, of course, of the game,

808
00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:28,600
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers had more yards per play, and that's a

809
00:48:28,680 --> 00:48:31,799
Speaker 1: key metric that's not gross yards, right. Gross yards really

810
00:48:31,800 --> 00:48:34,640
Speaker 1: indicates a team could be coming back. They gained five

811
00:48:34,680 --> 00:48:36,480
Speaker 1: hundred yards because they were passing every play and the

812
00:48:36,520 --> 00:48:38,520
Speaker 1: other team was running it and playing out the clock. Right,

813
00:48:38,880 --> 00:48:41,160
Speaker 1: yards per play is a really good indicator of which

814
00:48:41,200 --> 00:48:44,560
Speaker 1: team sort of was more successful offensively. So you had

815
00:48:44,640 --> 00:48:49,240
Speaker 1: that with the Bucks against the Bengals. Now, Trey Henderson

816
00:48:49,640 --> 00:48:52,279
Speaker 1: he's got a broken wrist. Even if he plays, he's

817
00:48:52,280 --> 00:48:54,279
Speaker 1: going to be playing with the club. Sam Hubbard also

818
00:48:54,320 --> 00:48:56,680
Speaker 1: on the defensive line is out and the defensive line

819
00:48:56,680 --> 00:48:58,680
Speaker 1: of the reasons why I've loved back in the Bengals

820
00:48:58,719 --> 00:49:01,440
Speaker 1: the past few weeks. I think there's gonna be a

821
00:49:01,520 --> 00:49:04,040
Speaker 1: lot of wind in the game that potentially neutralizes the

822
00:49:04,080 --> 00:49:08,000
Speaker 1: Bengals passing attack. Wow, this is this is why you're

823
00:49:08,040 --> 00:49:11,160
Speaker 1: a sharp god. This is how did I overlook this?

824
00:49:11,360 --> 00:49:13,960
Speaker 1: This is why I'm a dullard, a dim bulb, a

825
00:49:14,120 --> 00:49:20,560
Speaker 1: square god. It's so obvious and just right over my head.

826
00:49:21,760 --> 00:49:25,480
Speaker 1: It this line moved from three and a half to three,

827
00:49:26,000 --> 00:49:28,480
Speaker 1: and so I think you got to hope for is

828
00:49:28,520 --> 00:49:30,480
Speaker 1: that it goes back to three and a half because

829
00:49:30,520 --> 00:49:32,320
Speaker 1: people are going to come in on the Bengals, like

830
00:49:32,400 --> 00:49:35,759
Speaker 1: this is a big pros Joe's game. So getting the

831
00:49:35,840 --> 00:49:38,759
Speaker 1: hook here is really important because most wise guys have

832
00:49:38,920 --> 00:49:42,839
Speaker 1: this power later Power rated it three year less and look,

833
00:49:43,360 --> 00:49:47,680
Speaker 1: I know it. It feels like a half point doesn't

834
00:49:47,760 --> 00:49:51,120
Speaker 1: mean anything, but to wise guys on a key number

835
00:49:51,200 --> 00:49:53,719
Speaker 1: like three, it means everything. Look at the text it

836
00:49:53,800 --> 00:49:56,480
Speaker 1: look at the Chargers and Titans game last week, like

837
00:49:56,719 --> 00:49:58,719
Speaker 1: the game lands it on three. If you had the

838
00:49:58,800 --> 00:50:01,080
Speaker 1: Chargers minus two and a half, you were golden. If

839
00:50:01,120 --> 00:50:03,279
Speaker 1: you had the Titans plus three and a half, you

840
00:50:03,360 --> 00:50:06,920
Speaker 1: were golden. Like that, I'm key numbers like that it

841
00:50:07,080 --> 00:50:09,760
Speaker 1: kind of means everything. And you know, like you pointed

842
00:50:09,800 --> 00:50:12,120
Speaker 1: out for the Lions, Bengals are at the peak of

843
00:50:12,160 --> 00:50:16,880
Speaker 1: the market, peak Borough. Isn't it possible I could just

844
00:50:17,160 --> 00:50:19,440
Speaker 1: buy my way into being a sharp because I'm not

845
00:50:19,520 --> 00:50:21,200
Speaker 1: going to be able to do it based on data

846
00:50:21,280 --> 00:50:26,320
Speaker 1: and takes. You can. It's called you buy the points

847
00:50:26,680 --> 00:50:29,000
Speaker 1: every week. You just buy that extra half a point

848
00:50:29,440 --> 00:50:34,400
Speaker 1: every single week and you're golden. Boy. That was a

849
00:50:34,480 --> 00:50:38,520
Speaker 1: good one for anybody listening. That was really good. That

850
00:50:38,800 --> 00:50:41,920
Speaker 1: is why the Favorites podcast is great. That New England

851
00:50:41,960 --> 00:50:44,400
Speaker 1: take is your best of the year. Honestly, Well, I

852
00:50:44,520 --> 00:50:47,880
Speaker 1: can't believe that everything you said. You were like a magician.

853
00:50:48,719 --> 00:50:51,360
Speaker 1: I was looking over to the left with the cards

854
00:50:51,440 --> 00:50:53,360
Speaker 1: and you pulled a pigeon out of your suit and

855
00:50:53,440 --> 00:50:56,800
Speaker 1: I'm like, how the fuck did he do that? That

856
00:50:57,040 --> 00:51:00,600
Speaker 1: was literally I'm just I'm in awe. You know, magician's

857
00:51:00,640 --> 00:51:03,840
Speaker 1: good when you do it and you're like, oh, he

858
00:51:04,080 --> 00:51:08,080
Speaker 1: totally got me. I can't believe I overlooked it. What listen,

859
00:51:09,200 --> 00:51:13,239
Speaker 1: it is totally gross. Like you see that. We first

860
00:51:13,239 --> 00:51:16,759
Speaker 1: talked about this on The Favorites on Tuesday and we

861
00:51:16,880 --> 00:51:21,200
Speaker 1: were having a conversation and it all makes sense, but

862
00:51:21,400 --> 00:51:25,279
Speaker 1: I was really uncomfortable with it. And then today when

863
00:51:25,360 --> 00:51:28,560
Speaker 1: we recorded the Thursday edition, we do this thing called

864
00:51:28,600 --> 00:51:32,400
Speaker 1: sharp calls where the wise guys who were connected to

865
00:51:32,560 --> 00:51:35,160
Speaker 1: will call us and react to the conversation we had,

866
00:51:35,680 --> 00:51:39,480
Speaker 1: and all of them were talking about that Patriot's Bengals game,

867
00:51:39,560 --> 00:51:42,360
Speaker 1: like that was the play that everybody that game. And

868
00:51:42,440 --> 00:51:44,640
Speaker 1: then Dallas and the other game we didn't talk about,

869
00:51:44,640 --> 00:51:47,640
Speaker 1: which is interesting obviously, is Dallas and Philadelphia. Well, I

870
00:51:47,680 --> 00:51:52,800
Speaker 1: would take Philadelphia, that would be the side. My concern is.

871
00:51:53,719 --> 00:51:57,279
Speaker 1: Greg Kosell told me on Thursday, he said, they're not

872
00:51:57,360 --> 00:52:00,400
Speaker 1: going to run the same offense, mostly with Gardner Inshee,

873
00:52:00,440 --> 00:52:03,040
Speaker 1: and he worries about in a short week, do you

874
00:52:03,160 --> 00:52:06,520
Speaker 1: just say we're not changing our offense. We're gonna kind

875
00:52:06,520 --> 00:52:09,759
Speaker 1: of run what we run because I think Philadelphia is

876
00:52:09,760 --> 00:52:12,400
Speaker 1: clearly the better team. Ko Sell also said this, It

877
00:52:12,520 --> 00:52:14,080
Speaker 1: was one of his gems of the year. He said,

878
00:52:14,080 --> 00:52:18,000
Speaker 1: when you watch film, Ceedee Lamb's not a great one,

879
00:52:18,680 --> 00:52:23,000
Speaker 1: Schultz's productive, not a great tight end, Gallops not the

880
00:52:23,120 --> 00:52:26,960
Speaker 1: same player that Dallas's skill people because they're dallas Is

881
00:52:27,840 --> 00:52:30,319
Speaker 1: are driven up in the market, but they really don't

882
00:52:30,360 --> 00:52:33,800
Speaker 1: have a starting ace on the mound. Ceedee Lamb is

883
00:52:33,880 --> 00:52:38,239
Speaker 1: like a great two or an average one. Dallas, by

884
00:52:38,280 --> 00:52:39,880
Speaker 1: the way, Dallas is going to have to go to

885
00:52:39,960 --> 00:52:46,440
Speaker 1: either San Francisco bad bad spot or at Philadelphia. We

886
00:52:46,520 --> 00:52:48,279
Speaker 1: all know how this is going to end right now.

887
00:52:48,320 --> 00:52:50,160
Speaker 1: I would take Philadelphia in the point. Is that a

888
00:52:50,239 --> 00:52:55,080
Speaker 1: sharp side? It started as the sharp side, but there's

889
00:52:55,080 --> 00:52:58,239
Speaker 1: been It's like talk about split. When I say like

890
00:52:58,360 --> 00:53:00,960
Speaker 1: there's no consensus on a game when we're talking about

891
00:53:01,239 --> 00:53:05,000
Speaker 1: the Panthers, it's because it's like you take the plus

892
00:53:05,080 --> 00:53:07,839
Speaker 1: three and when it's not plus three, maybe it take

893
00:53:07,840 --> 00:53:09,040
Speaker 1: the plus two and a half, but it kind of

894
00:53:09,040 --> 00:53:10,719
Speaker 1: wait till it gets back to plus three. But people

895
00:53:10,719 --> 00:53:14,000
Speaker 1: aren't passionate about it. There's passion on the Cowboys and

896
00:53:14,360 --> 00:53:16,759
Speaker 1: the Eagles right now. And when this game was at six,

897
00:53:17,200 --> 00:53:20,279
Speaker 1: people were buying the Eagles hard. At plus six. You

898
00:53:20,320 --> 00:53:22,480
Speaker 1: saw it get down to five and a half. And

899
00:53:22,600 --> 00:53:25,719
Speaker 1: then when Jalen Hurts was officially announced he was out. Wise,

900
00:53:25,760 --> 00:53:28,040
Speaker 1: guys all started talking about the Cowboys again. And I

901
00:53:28,120 --> 00:53:30,600
Speaker 1: think part of it is they're looking at the injury

902
00:53:30,680 --> 00:53:35,120
Speaker 1: reports right and who's practicing for the Eagles, and there's

903
00:53:35,120 --> 00:53:36,960
Speaker 1: a lot of guys sitting out this week and Gardner

904
00:53:37,040 --> 00:53:41,239
Speaker 1: Minshew misspractice time because of Mike Leach's funeral. So I

905
00:53:41,440 --> 00:53:44,680
Speaker 1: think that from the wise guy perspective, and maybe they're

906
00:53:44,760 --> 00:53:50,000
Speaker 1: overthinking it. Are the Eagles going to take this week off?

907
00:53:50,719 --> 00:53:52,120
Speaker 1: If I think they're going to have to see the

908
00:53:52,160 --> 00:53:54,560
Speaker 1: Cowboys in the playoffs? Like you just mentioned, do they

909
00:53:54,640 --> 00:53:57,400
Speaker 1: not want to show anything special? Jalen Hurts isn't going

910
00:53:57,440 --> 00:54:00,160
Speaker 1: to play. They're in a pretty good position as it

911
00:54:00,280 --> 00:54:03,239
Speaker 1: relates to the conference standings. Is this a game where

912
00:54:03,960 --> 00:54:06,880
Speaker 1: they're not going to not show up? But this is

913
00:54:07,080 --> 00:54:09,640
Speaker 1: a rest week? So I think that's why the wise

914
00:54:09,680 --> 00:54:13,480
Speaker 1: guys started coming into the Cowboys. Yeah, that said, I

915
00:54:13,600 --> 00:54:15,160
Speaker 1: bet the Eagles at plus five and a half and

916
00:54:15,200 --> 00:54:17,399
Speaker 1: I'm not buying out of it, meaning I'm not going

917
00:54:17,520 --> 00:54:19,840
Speaker 1: to bet the Cowboys. I'm not going to hedge it

918
00:54:20,080 --> 00:54:23,120
Speaker 1: in any way. So what's the number at now? I

919
00:54:23,200 --> 00:54:25,359
Speaker 1: think it's back up to six. I think when sort

920
00:54:25,400 --> 00:54:28,279
Speaker 1: of it became official with Minshew, it went back up

921
00:54:28,320 --> 00:54:32,480
Speaker 1: to six because some wise guys started playing. They started

922
00:54:32,560 --> 00:54:36,960
Speaker 1: playing the Cowboys. Let me six points. I would take Philadelphia,

923
00:54:37,040 --> 00:54:39,000
Speaker 1: even though I think you're reasoning is right, six is

924
00:54:39,120 --> 00:54:43,759
Speaker 1: too many points with that defense. Interesting, it's now down

925
00:54:43,800 --> 00:54:47,040
Speaker 1: to four and a half. Yeah, now Dallas is interesting.

926
00:54:48,040 --> 00:54:52,120
Speaker 1: See now Dallas is decide. Now it becomes interesting Colin.

927
00:54:52,680 --> 00:54:57,239
Speaker 1: And now if it continues to move down like I've

928
00:54:57,280 --> 00:55:00,759
Speaker 1: got it at five and a half, then numbers at four,

929
00:55:01,640 --> 00:55:05,200
Speaker 1: I'd probably keep waiting. I would try to find a

930
00:55:05,600 --> 00:55:08,319
Speaker 1: very thin middle. If I can get it at three

931
00:55:08,360 --> 00:55:10,239
Speaker 1: and a half, like, does it continue to go down?

932
00:55:11,160 --> 00:55:13,120
Speaker 1: For me? It's a wait and see if you haven't

933
00:55:13,200 --> 00:55:15,960
Speaker 1: bet it yet, take Dallas at for But that's where

934
00:55:15,960 --> 00:55:36,000
Speaker 1: it gets interesting the volume. Make sure to check out

935
00:55:36,080 --> 00:55:39,680
Speaker 1: The Draymon Green Show. I brought Draymond Green into the

936
00:55:39,719 --> 00:55:42,520
Speaker 1: volume because one of the more entertaining voices in sports.

937
00:55:42,719 --> 00:55:46,840
Speaker 1: Unique perspective understands behind the rope, also chops up with

938
00:55:47,000 --> 00:55:50,759
Speaker 1: guests like Gary Peyton, Zach Levine, Tracy McGrady. Make sure

939
00:55:51,000 --> 00:55:55,080
Speaker 1: download The Draymond Green Show wherever you get your podcasts,

940
00:55:55,280 --> 00:55:58,760
Speaker 1: only on the Volume podcast Network