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Speaker 1: What two three brights.

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Speaker 2: Down in the middle of the failing.

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Speaker 3: Hello, stoopball.

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Speaker 2: Down in the one yard line? How about that?

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Speaker 4: That is the ultimate kah.

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Speaker 2: Man.

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Speaker 4: We are underway.

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Speaker 5: Hello everyone, Welcome back to another episode of the Action

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Speaker 5: Network NFL podcast is the Week twelve Wednesday Show. I'm

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Speaker 5: Matthew Friedman, the editor in chief of Fantasy Labs. If

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Speaker 5: you want to recap what happened in week eleven, listen

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Speaker 5: to the Monday Show with Ian Hartitz and Chris Raybond.

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Speaker 5: They also break down the Thanksgiving slate on that episode.

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Speaker 5: I normally do the Friday show with Chris, but this week,

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Speaker 5: because of the holiday, we are consolidating the Wednesday and

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Speaker 5: Friday episodes, which means that joining Peter Jennings and Shawn

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Speaker 5: Corner and me is none other than Chris Raybond. You

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Speaker 5: can follow all three of them in the Action Network

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Speaker 5: app at csuo AM eighty eight, the Underscore odds maker

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Speaker 5: and Chris Raybond. Peter is a Fantasy Lapse co founder

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Speaker 5: and two time DFS World Champion. Shawn is the Action

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Speaker 5: Network Director of Predictive Analytics and the number one end

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Speaker 5: season Fantasy pros ranker for each of the past three seasons,

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Speaker 5: and Chris is a senior editor and analyst at the

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Speaker 5: Action Network and a co host if I'll take that

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Speaker 5: bets on ESPN Plus. Gentlemen, we have some important football

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Speaker 5: matters to discuss, but first let's talk about what really

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Speaker 5: matters in life, and that is pie. It is Thanksgiving

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Speaker 5: and I want to know what your go to pie is.

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Speaker 5: And if you say that you don't like pie, I'm

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Speaker 5: going to kick you off with the show. Chris. Let's

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Speaker 5: start with you. Do you have a go to pie?

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Speaker 5: And I guess it doesn't need to be like a

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Speaker 5: Thanksgiving pie, could just be your go to pie in general.

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Speaker 6: I'm going to Apple first, but on Thanksgiving, I like

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Speaker 6: the all like all of the orange pies, like the

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Speaker 6: pumpkin Pie, the sleep Potato pie, p camp Oh my god,

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Speaker 6: I can't even I love Ole Pie.

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Speaker 5: Yeah. Pe Camp pie is really good too. Yeah. I

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Speaker 5: like that thrown in there, Sean, you are shaking your

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Speaker 5: head no, disapprovingly at the Apple well pie mention.

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Speaker 4: I just I fade Apple pie. I get it. Just

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Speaker 4: I had a bad experience one time, got sick, But

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Speaker 4: I go chalk a pumpkin pie all the way.

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Speaker 5: Pete, are you a pie guy? Do you have any

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Speaker 5: opinions on this?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm a massive pie guy and I actually had

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Speaker 1: some pie my favorite pile last night. Key lime pie

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Speaker 1: is hands down my favorite, although on Thanksgiving I always

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Speaker 1: have pumpkin pies.

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Speaker 2: So Thanksgiving, the indulgence is at an all time high.

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Speaker 1: And meet their eating in you know, the joy of

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Speaker 1: victory or more likely, you know, basically eating my sorrows

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Speaker 1: away with a lot of pie after the Thanksgiving slate.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, it should be a lot of fun. Thanksgiving

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Speaker 2: is gonna be awesome.

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Speaker 5: Pete, like you, I also indulged in pile last night.

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Speaker 5: It was wonderful. The only pie that I will not

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Speaker 5: allow in my house is mincemeat pie. Don't bring that

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Speaker 5: in here. But other than that, never met a pie

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Speaker 5: I didn't like. Okay. In this episode, we're going to

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Speaker 5: talk about our main slate, chalk locks, fades, and undervalued

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Speaker 5: plays and stacks. We're going to make some picks and

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Speaker 5: prop bets. Do us a favor as you are listening

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Speaker 5: to the show, Please rate and review the Action Network

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Speaker 5: NFL podcast on iTunes, Subscribe, unsubscribe, and resubscribe, and for

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Speaker 5: all of our written content go to the Action Network

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Speaker 5: in Fantasy Labs. You can get our weekly fantasy rankings

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Speaker 5: at actionnetwork dot com slash Fantasy Guys. Let's talk about

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Speaker 5: the main slate, and let's start looking at the players

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Speaker 5: we might want to roster in cash Right now, some

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Speaker 5: of the guys standing out at the quarterback position at

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Speaker 5: the top of our models, Andrew Luck, Jamis Winston, Cam Newton, Chris.

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Speaker 5: Let's start with you. Do any of those guys catch

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Speaker 5: your eye or right now? Are you looking elsewhere?

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Speaker 3: I like Luck a lot.

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Speaker 6: I think that you know, he's kind of continued to

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Speaker 6: prove himself over and over and over. They got a

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Speaker 6: sky high imply total sitting around thirty. I think you

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Speaker 6: gotta go Luck or Newton here. Jamis like these Bucks quarterbacks. Man,

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Speaker 6: it's like you get them on the wrong week and

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Speaker 6: they get betch. You get them on the right week

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Speaker 6: and they throw for five hundred yards. But I think

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Speaker 6: I'd rather leave that for tournaments.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I definitely hear you there, Sean. Do you have

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Speaker 5: any thoughts on the cash game quarter then? Also, congratulations

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Speaker 5: on really nailing us last week with the Jamis Winston

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Speaker 5: prop on passes attempted versus Fitzpatrick interceptions. That was a

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Speaker 5: brilliant prop. I have to say, Yeah, I was worried.

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Speaker 4: You guys would take the Winston attempts. Yeah, I mean

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Speaker 4: I want to take Winston, but I think for cash games,

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Speaker 4: I'm in a half to roll of luck. He's just

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Speaker 4: not expensive enough to fade. And he's thrown for three

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Speaker 4: or more touchdown passes in seven straight games. As Raybaugh mentioned,

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Speaker 4: I think they have the highest team total on the

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Speaker 4: main slate, So he just seems like the obvious cash

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Speaker 4: game play. But yeah, Winston GVPS or Ryan Fitzpatrick, it

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Speaker 4: seems like if you've played the backup quarterback for the

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Speaker 4: Buccaneers this year, that's you know, been a smash GP play.

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Speaker 4: So something to consider is Ryan Fitzpatrick's I'm sure he'll

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Speaker 4: you know, have a big second half or something. So

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Speaker 4: you know, I'm all about the big quarterbacks. So I've

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Speaker 4: given up by now. Another guy that's interesting. He's really cheap,

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Speaker 4: and if AJ Green returns this week is Andy Dalton

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Speaker 4: fifty three hundred. You know, not taking him in cash

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Speaker 4: or anything, but he seems like he's too cheap.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, Andy Dalton is someone who has popped in some

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Speaker 5: of our models as a reminder, this is the last

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Speaker 5: week for buys, and of course after that epic Monday

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Speaker 5: night game, we have a slate with no Patrick Mahomes

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Speaker 5: and no Jared Goff, and then, of course, because there

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Speaker 5: are three games on Thanksgiving, the slate is still kind

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Speaker 5: of typically thin, the way it would be for a

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Speaker 5: normal by week. Pete, what are you thinking about with

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Speaker 5: these quarterbacks?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, for me, it's gonna be pretty easy. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: play Luck on DraftKings and cash and as him now,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna play Jamis on FanDuel. I mean, I get

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Speaker 1: the risk with Jamis, but seventy five hundred on FanDuel,

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Speaker 1: I think he's obviously got a little bit of risk,

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Speaker 1: but his upside in this spot is just so massive, so.

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Speaker 2: I'll take the savings there.

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Speaker 1: There's obviously, you know, chance fits magic gets in the game,

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Speaker 1: but I like the discount. Eighty four hundred to seventy

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Speaker 1: five hundred definitely gets you some upgrades in the main slate.

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Speaker 1: So Andrew lock DraftKings, Jamis for me on FANDLE, and

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Speaker 1: then we have a lot of pivots and tournaments. Curious

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Speaker 1: you guys thoughts on Lamar Jackson, who has a lot

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Speaker 1: of rushing upside. Lamar Jackson on fandal too, I could

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Speaker 1: see an argument for him over Jamis Winston. If you're

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Speaker 1: really concerned at that price tag, what do you guys

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Speaker 1: think about Lamark?

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Speaker 6: The Ravens ran fifty four runs in that game, and

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Speaker 6: then they had nineteen passes and they got sack toys,

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Speaker 6: so they had seventy five plays Lamar Jackson twenty one

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Speaker 6: you know, pass attempts plus sacks, and then half you know,

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Speaker 6: twenty seven of their fifty four rushes. So I mean,

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Speaker 6: his upside if he's going to be getting you know,

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Speaker 6: essentially seventy five percent of of their plays is ridiculous,

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Speaker 6: especially against the Raiders, who are probably at this point,

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Speaker 6: I mean, neck and neck with the Bucks for the

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Speaker 6: worst defense in the NFL.

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Speaker 3: So I mean, I think that if.

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Speaker 6: You're willing to play Jamis in cash, you should be

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Speaker 6: want to play Lamar in cash too.

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Speaker 3: Honestly, Like, I don't.

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Speaker 6: Think there's really much more risk playing Lamar than Jamis

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Speaker 6: in this spot, especially against his defense.

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Speaker 3: I love Lamar, especially in tournaments.

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Speaker 6: I don't think I'm going to touch him in cash

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Speaker 6: because you know, there's still risk, but I love him

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Speaker 6: in tournament.

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Speaker 5: Sean, can you talk a little bit about the projection

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Speaker 5: for Lamar Jackson because it's I mean, now we have

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Speaker 5: a game, so we have some more more data to

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Speaker 5: kind of use to think about what an offense with

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Speaker 5: him at the helm actually looks like. The question is

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Speaker 5: how much are you relying on that data?

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Speaker 4: Last week's game went according to, you know, the way

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Speaker 4: I was projecting it. As soon as he was announce

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Speaker 4: a starter, I ramped up his stats, and then the

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Speaker 4: rest of the team. I downgraded every single receiver and

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Speaker 4: we saw that. You know, John Brown is now relevant,

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Speaker 4: Michael Crabtree is relevant. So and this matchup's great for

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Speaker 4: Lamar Jackson. You know, they're at home against the Raiders

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Speaker 4: ten point favorites. You don't want him throwing the ball anyway,

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Speaker 4: So I wouldn't be surprised if we see another one

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Speaker 4: hundred yard rushing game. Just keep it simple play, you know,

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Speaker 4: run the crap out of Gus Edwards, Alex Collins and

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Speaker 4: Lamar Jackson. So yeah, I think of it more as

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Speaker 4: a cash play. Really. I don't know if his ceiling

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Speaker 4: is that high, but yeah, nothing this you know, past

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Speaker 4: game really changed my mind because that's exactly what I

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Speaker 4: thought it was gonna happen.

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Speaker 6: Where do you have his rushing attempt set at Sean,

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Speaker 6: I'm curious, Well, we're gonna save that for the problem, Okay, Okay.

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Speaker 4: So I'm gonna gauge what you guys are thinking about

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Speaker 4: him to set the final number.

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Speaker 5: Okay. I think part of the idea is that if

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Speaker 5: you are going cheaper with someone like Lamar Jackson, you

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Speaker 5: would have a lot of ability to roster some of

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Speaker 5: the higher priced running backs. Melvin Gordon one of those guys.

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Speaker 5: He's someone who is popping in our models. Some guys

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Speaker 5: who are cheaper obviously also popping on our models. James White,

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Speaker 5: Marlon Mack, Peyton. Barber is always like the lowest priced starter,

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Speaker 5: always someone who is like tempting. How were you guys

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Speaker 5: sorting through those guys or any of the other running backs?

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Speaker 3: Rabond I like Barber this week. You know he is

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Speaker 3: at home. He's a favorite.

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Speaker 6: He has that ugly yard per Carrie staring staring at you,

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Speaker 6: but he's shown that in indecent matchups he can definitely eat.

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Speaker 6: He had eighteen carries one hundred and six yards in

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Speaker 6: a touch last week against the Giants, he had that

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Speaker 6: nineteen carries eighty five yards in a touch against the Bengals,

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Speaker 6: another bad run defense. You know, San Francisco has been

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Speaker 6: all right, but I think that Tampa Bay, especially with

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Speaker 6: all of these quarterback issues with the turnovers, just the

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Speaker 6: incessant turnovers, whether it's Winston or Fitzpatrick, I think that

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Speaker 6: they want to run the ball and they He's just

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Speaker 6: too cheap to me for a starting running back that's

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Speaker 6: going to get goal line carries in a game where

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Speaker 6: you know there's an over under of fifty five and

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Speaker 6: his team is the favorite. So I do like Barbara

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Speaker 6: on that low end of the salary scale. And yeah,

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Speaker 6: I think Melvin Gordon is the smash play on the

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Speaker 6: high end. He's been that pretty much every week all season.

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Speaker 6: You know, even in a game that he doesn't score

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Speaker 6: touchdown last week he gets over twenty DraftKings points. I

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Speaker 6: like Gordon on a high end and Peyton Barbara the lowin.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so real quick.

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Speaker 1: My most tilting moment, or the most tilting thing for

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Speaker 1: me last week was I was all in on Alex

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Speaker 1: Collins on FanDuel and started.

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Speaker 2: Off so good.

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Speaker 1: Obviously, he got the touchdown, and then Gus Edwards just

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Speaker 1: came in there, so I definitely want to talk about him.

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Speaker 1: I know he's the cheap running back that we need

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Speaker 1: to discuss, but yeah, I mean Melvin Gordon for me

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Speaker 1: is by far my favorite option at the top. I

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Speaker 1: think he makes a ton of sense. James Connor it

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Speaker 1: is in Denver, but I still think it's a great

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Speaker 1: spot for him after he put up a dead performance,

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Speaker 1: like people will be attracted by the spot that he's

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Speaker 1: in his price reduction. So those are the two guys

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Speaker 1: I like. So Kwon Barkley is a little concerning for me.

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Speaker 1: I know he's somewhat matchup proof with his involvement in

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Speaker 1: the passing game, but I think Philadelphia's front seven can

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Speaker 1: really dominate the Giants offensive line, so we'll see what

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Speaker 1: happens there. Both me and the Eagles are really desperate

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Speaker 1: and just got embarrassed. So yeah, that's kind of where

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Speaker 1: I'm looking right now. David Johnson's certainly fine too, but

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Speaker 1: Melvin Gordon's a hands down best played for me. And

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Speaker 1: then you get into some thinner options, and I think

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Speaker 1: James conn of probably my second favorite expensive running back.

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Speaker 1: I am really intrigued by a lot of these cheap

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Speaker 1: running backs though that I want to get into.

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Speaker 5: One quick note on Barkley before I kick get to you, Sean,

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Speaker 5: he has a chance. He probably won't get there, but

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Speaker 5: he has a chance of actually getting a thousand rushing

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Speaker 5: yards and a thousand receiving yards in the same season,

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Speaker 5: which would just be ridiculous. And only two other running

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Speaker 5: backs in NFL history have done that, Marshall Faulk and

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Speaker 5: Roger Craig with the you know, like awesome nineteen eighties

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Speaker 5: forty nine ers. So you know, Barkley is doing as

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Speaker 5: a rookie what like all time greats do when they

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Speaker 5: are in their prime. Pretty incredible. What's happening with him

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Speaker 5: right now? Sean? What are your thoughts with running backs.

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Speaker 4: Up at the top? I'm jamming and Melvin Gordon love

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Speaker 4: him this week, and then Leonard Fournette's just pricing tier

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Speaker 4: below that. I think he makes a lot of sense

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Speaker 4: this week. He's seen, you know, thirty touches in both

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Speaker 4: games that he's returned from his Hanning injury, so he

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Speaker 4: should be close to one hundred percent, and you know

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Speaker 4: they want, you know, to give a bunch of carries

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Speaker 4: and keep the ball out of Bortle's hands. So I

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Speaker 4: like Fournette just a little bit cheaper this week. And

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Speaker 4: then on the really cheap side, I'm looking at Frank

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Speaker 4: Gore ultimate revenge game spot. I'm getting word that Kenyon

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Speaker 4: Drake he's wearing a non contact jersey today, so left

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Speaker 4: him honitor that. But if Drake is out, you know,

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Speaker 4: I think Gore is going to be super highly owned.

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Speaker 4: But he's a cheaper guy that I've been having pop

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Speaker 4: in some of my models.

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Speaker 5: It's interesting. I know you don't want to talk about

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Speaker 5: Gus Edwards. You want to save him for the prop

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Speaker 5: section of the show, so we're going to do that.

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Speaker 5: But yes, he is someone we definitely need to talk about,

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Speaker 5: really intriguing, and I am curious what your projections say

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Speaker 5: about him. Let's talk about wide receivers. Two guys who

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Speaker 5: are popping in our models who are always priced highly

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Speaker 5: Odo Beckham Junior, Antonio Brown Rabon. Do you have any

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Speaker 5: thoughts on those guys and do any other wide receivers

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Speaker 5: catch your eye?

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Speaker 3: Oh?

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Speaker 6: No, Antonine, know, man, I think that I loved attacking

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Speaker 6: the Eagles secondary, especially with you know, Alpha dool receivers.

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Speaker 6: Antonio Brown has been amazing this year. He's scoring touchdowns

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Speaker 6: left and right. But in this spot, I still love

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Speaker 6: Odell here. You know, Antonio on the road historically not

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Speaker 6: quite as effective as he's been at home. Same goals

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Speaker 6: for Big Ben obviously though it's been a little bit

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Speaker 6: of lately, but they did start off really slow last

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Speaker 6: week as we saw, so I do like Odell over Antonio.

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Speaker 3: In this spot against Philly.

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Speaker 6: And on the other side, on the chief side, I think,

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Speaker 6: you know, there's a lot of interesting guys. I think

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Speaker 6: Jarvis Langy, he's priced under six k. That's pretty interesting

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Speaker 6: to me. Courtland Sutton's down at forty four hundred's he's

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Speaker 6: a top three projected plus minus in our models. And

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Speaker 6: then you have Quincy and Nunwell here and he's kind

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Speaker 6: of you know, the Jets have been not good lately.

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Speaker 6: Everything's been kind of influx. But Anne was a guy

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Speaker 6: who was getting a ton of targets early, so he

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Speaker 6: could be a guy that really pays off at thirty

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Speaker 6: seven hundred in a game where the Jets may have

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Speaker 6: to throw a little bit more than usually. You have

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Speaker 6: ste find Gilmour on the outside. So we'll see if

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Speaker 6: how much they deploy and then when the spot they've

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Speaker 6: been using. Cursing there a little bit too, but I

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Speaker 6: do like a no way and and Kenny Stills. Kenny

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Speaker 6: Stills is another guy who air yards tournament, you just

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Speaker 6: you just need those air yards. You know, the targets

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Speaker 6: aren't always going to be there. But I think in

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Speaker 6: a tournament, he's a guy that no one's really thinking.

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Speaker 3: About right now. So's those are the times I love

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Speaker 3: to play Kenny Still.

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Speaker 5: Sean Chris just mentioned in Neonwa there, Josh McCown, it

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Speaker 5: looks like it's going to be the starter this week

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Speaker 5: for the Jets. How has he impacted your projections for

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Speaker 5: the wide receivers there in New York?

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Speaker 2: Not much.

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Speaker 4: Two weeks ago I bumped everybody up a little bit.

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Speaker 4: He crapped out, but I think I think it helps

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Speaker 4: the receivers, and we'll have to see. I don't know

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Speaker 4: if Robbie Anderson is going to return, but I know

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Speaker 4: they have some chemistry from last year, but you know,

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Speaker 4: he's only I think he's only played one game with

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Speaker 4: the Noon Law, so they just might not have that chemistrue. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: but yeah, I think overall, he definitely helps boost the

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Speaker 4: pass catchers.

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Speaker 5: What are your thoughts on the other wide receivers?

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Speaker 4: Honestlate, Yeah, so up top. I think Keenan Allen at

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Speaker 4: that price, I think having Keenan Allen and Melvin Gordon

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Speaker 4: on a team just helps boost your floor for cash games.

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Speaker 4: You don't really need to care which guy gets the

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Speaker 4: ardage or touchdowns, but you know it's going to be there.

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Speaker 4: And then a little bit further down, Raybon mentioned in

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Speaker 4: Courtland Sutton. We've yet to see, you know, the breakout

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Speaker 4: game for him yet, but it's coming. And his prices

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Speaker 4: all the way down at forty four hundred, so I

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Speaker 4: love him at that price. The Steelers have been playing

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Speaker 4: better defense, but you know, Sutton is you know, a

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Speaker 4: bet on talent at that price, and you know I'll

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Speaker 4: probably have him cash n GVPS this week.

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Speaker 5: Any thoughts on Sutton? And then also Manny Sanders is

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Speaker 5: someone who is popping in some of our models. Any

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Speaker 5: thoughts on those two guys?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, free rolling on Manny Sanders hashtag hashtag team sacks.

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Speaker 1: The other thing that is big news tonight, I'm going

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Speaker 1: to dinner with a Broncos player with my wife. We

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Speaker 1: don't know which one it is. My wife is convinced

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Speaker 1: it's Emmanuel Sanders. I'm really hopeful it's not. So that

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Speaker 1: is a serious life sweat for me today. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: I love the Sun call that someone all one hundred

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Speaker 1: percent have I think Beckham. I'm prioritizing Beckham no matter

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Speaker 1: what in my cash games. And someone else said, I

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Speaker 1: haven't heard anyone talk about Mike Evans. I mean, I

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Speaker 1: know Sherman's been playing well, but Mike Evans had a

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Speaker 1: huge game last week. I think this is a great

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Speaker 1: spot for him. So I like, I think my roster

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Speaker 1: construction this week is going to be a cheaper quarterback.

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Speaker 1: Obviously Andrew Locke'll be paying up foreign draftings. But then

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Speaker 1: I'm going to prioritize getting in two of these high

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Speaker 1: end receivers. I like the Keenan Allen call, like Antonio Brown,

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Speaker 1: and in the mid tier someone like Tyler Boyd.

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Speaker 2: Of AJ Green plays, I think it's a little bit

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Speaker 2: of a bump. I know he's been getting a little.

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Speaker 1: More targets, but from an efficiency standpoint, I think AJ

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Speaker 1: Green being on the field could really help him, especially

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Speaker 1: if it was limited in some fashions. Receivers, I want

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Speaker 1: to pay up for, and the cheap guy that I'll

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Speaker 1: definitely have is Courland Sutton. So that's kind of how

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at rosters this week, which means I need

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Speaker 1: to nail this cheap running back, which Peyton Barber is

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Speaker 1: probably my favorite, but I'm eager to hear the opinions

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Speaker 1: and Gus Edwards.

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Speaker 5: The one thing that gives me a little bit of

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Speaker 5: pause on Mike Evans, it's just the splits that he's

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Speaker 5: had with Winston versus Fitzpatrick. But still a really good

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Speaker 5: matchup and obviously talented enough to overcome. And I don't know,

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Speaker 5: there might be some noise in those splits too. But

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Speaker 5: let's talk about the tight ends. Zach Ertz seems to

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Speaker 5: be kind of like the smash guy if you want

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Speaker 5: to pay up for tight end, or really the only

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Speaker 5: guy that you might consider paying up for. It's just

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Speaker 5: a question of whether you actually want to pay up

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Speaker 5: for tight end in this spot, Chris, what are you

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Speaker 5: thinking about doing with the tight end position.

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Speaker 3: I'm not really a proponent of paying up for tight end.

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Speaker 3: It's just the way it works.

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Speaker 6: It's just a more a more volatile position than wide

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Speaker 6: receiver then running back and then quarterback, and then you

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Speaker 6: also usually see tight ends don't quite have the upside

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Speaker 6: of wide receivers either. So tight end is usually the

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Speaker 6: position that I paid down for in cash and kind

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Speaker 6: of prioritize paying down for like an unbuilding lineups I

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Speaker 6: usually you know the way, I usually kind of pick

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Speaker 6: a defense and a tight end and all the guys

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Speaker 6: that can fit in the in the onesie positions and

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Speaker 6: then build from there. So like zach Ertz ceiling in

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Speaker 6: our draft in our models on DraftKings this week twenty

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Speaker 6: three point five, So he's the high he has the

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Speaker 6: highest ceiling among tight ends at twenty three point five.

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Speaker 6: At wide receiver, the highest ceiling is thirty one point

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Speaker 6: six for Odell Beckham.

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Speaker 3: But I mean you have about a.

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Speaker 6: Dozen guys who have higher sailing projections than erth. So

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Speaker 6: that that's usually why I do not pay for tight end.

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Speaker 6: The tight ends I like on the other side of

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Speaker 6: the salary spectrum, daven Inn Djoku on an ugly position,

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Speaker 6: I think he still want to consider him because he

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Speaker 6: has some upside. He's popping as the number one projective

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Speaker 6: plus minus on DraftKings, and I think Jack.

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Speaker 3: Doyle too as well.

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Speaker 6: Miami is a team that I always like to target

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Speaker 6: with backs and tight ends. Their linebackers tend to struggle

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Speaker 6: in coverage, so a lot of people will have luck

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Speaker 6: in their cash game lineups. One way to leverage that,

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Speaker 6: whether it's cash or GPP, is to get in Doyle,

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Speaker 6: who running a lot more routes, playing a lot more

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Speaker 6: snaps than Eric Ebron.

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Speaker 4: I agree with Raybon on the David Joku call. I

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Speaker 4: think his price has dropped a blow of four K,

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Speaker 4: so you know, I'm all in on that, but I'll

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Speaker 4: probably be more willing to spend up on Ertz. It's

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Speaker 4: a shame that Kittle's price so high because I do

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Speaker 4: like him this week, but you know, just two hundred

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Speaker 4: dollars cheaper than ERTs, I see no reason to take Kittle,

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Speaker 4: so I'll probably have a ton of Ertz. We finally

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Speaker 4: saw a letdown game from him. I don't think it

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Speaker 4: was from them try and incorporate in Golden Tate. So

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Speaker 4: with the tight end position I write about all the

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Speaker 4: time in my tiers, it's a whack a mole position

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Speaker 4: where you can't really overreact to just one or two games.

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Speaker 4: So I expect Ertz to bounce back this week, so

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Speaker 4: I'll probably have quite a bit just to lock down

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Speaker 4: the stability at the tight end position that he provides.

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Speaker 5: Pete, I'm a. I mean that if you're looking to

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Speaker 5: pay up a wide receiver, you might be looking to

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Speaker 5: pay down a little bit at tight end, But what

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Speaker 5: are you doing at the position?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think Ertz is definitely in play,

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Speaker 1: But I agree with the points that Rayvaon made. In general,

434
00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:16,840
Speaker 1: I think there's a higher ceiling games for some of

435
00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:18,680
Speaker 1: these other players that receeper position.

436
00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:21,119
Speaker 2: And I really like a lot of these guys. So

437
00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:22,240
Speaker 2: unless I.

438
00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:24,440
Speaker 1: Guess there's a roster construction where maybe I play like

439
00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:28,280
Speaker 1: a Peyton Barber, Gus Edwards and Melvin Gordon, and then

440
00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:32,120
Speaker 1: you can fit a couple of stud receivers and ERTs.

441
00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:35,240
Speaker 1: But for me right now, I think Joeku stands out

442
00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:37,280
Speaker 1: quite a bit. I think he's one guy that you

443
00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:39,720
Speaker 1: definitely want exposure to, especially over on Fandel where he's

444
00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:42,639
Speaker 1: fifty one hundred. I still am intrigued by Jack Doyle

445
00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:45,080
Speaker 1: and the one guy we haven't talked that much about

446
00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:47,679
Speaker 1: that you know, we'll see if he can get it

447
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:49,399
Speaker 1: going here at the end is Gronk. I mean, does

448
00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:51,920
Speaker 1: anyone have any love for Gronk? I mean, it's been

449
00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:55,400
Speaker 1: awful this year, but he's finally healthy, I think, are

450
00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:58,640
Speaker 1: healthy ish and should play. And you're getting a cheap

451
00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:01,480
Speaker 1: price tag on someone who's just orkeley scored more touchdowns

452
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:03,040
Speaker 1: than basically anyone in the position.

453
00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:05,240
Speaker 2: That's a tournament only one. Obviously, I love him.

454
00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:06,080
Speaker 3: I love Gronk.

455
00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:09,280
Speaker 6: I think I love the Brady to Gronk stack this week,

456
00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:13,040
Speaker 6: because not only has Gronk been disappointing, but Brady's really

457
00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:16,280
Speaker 6: been underwhelming at times this year. And you know, those

458
00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:19,640
Speaker 6: those correlations with Gronk. When Gron's in the lineup, Brady

459
00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:24,240
Speaker 6: is a whole different quarterback statistically, So you know, I

460
00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:25,960
Speaker 6: think that's a great call, Pete. Give me all of

461
00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:27,120
Speaker 6: Brady Gronk in tournaments.

462
00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:29,800
Speaker 5: That's interesting. It leads me to the next segment because

463
00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:32,800
Speaker 5: I really do not want any Gronk. I mean, obviously

464
00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:35,879
Speaker 5: GPP it's its own thing. And I think Pete is

465
00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:39,800
Speaker 5: right that this could be the week where people just overlooked.

466
00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:42,479
Speaker 5: The Patriots have been on buy, so they're kind of

467
00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:45,520
Speaker 5: not really in people's minds anyway. They're coming off of

468
00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:48,560
Speaker 5: the loss where they just got destroyed. Gronk hasn't been playing,

469
00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:51,040
Speaker 5: so it really could be like this kind of perfect

470
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:54,080
Speaker 5: storm where Gronk has low ownership and then he's coming

471
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:56,639
Speaker 5: in healthy and he is able to produce.

472
00:21:56,760 --> 00:22:00,160
Speaker 1: Raybaum, like Stills, a good start for a tournament lineup

473
00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:02,880
Speaker 1: with low ownership and a lot of leverage is Brady

474
00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:07,359
Speaker 1: White Bronk and Stills that that's a millionaire maker winner

475
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:10,159
Speaker 1: if you're fall on the drift of Raybond straight right there.

476
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:11,360
Speaker 2: I like it. I like that.

477
00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:13,520
Speaker 3: I think this game will just go a little bit overlooked.

478
00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:14,919
Speaker 6: To be honest with you, I think a lot of

479
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:17,840
Speaker 6: people are going to pay attention to, like whether Drake

480
00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:19,800
Speaker 6: is playing it so they can play Frank Goler and

481
00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 6: like a lot of the other options in this game

482
00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:22,840
Speaker 6: are going to go a little bit overlooked.

483
00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:26,920
Speaker 5: Raymond what is or who is a high priced guy

484
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:30,240
Speaker 5: maybe one or two that you would be looking potentially

485
00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:32,360
Speaker 5: to avoid this week any position.

486
00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:35,199
Speaker 6: James White is a little too expensive for me at

487
00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:38,639
Speaker 6: that price on DraftKings. Now that more guys are healthy,

488
00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:41,119
Speaker 6: I think that White was a guy that I really

489
00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:43,560
Speaker 6: like to play. When when the Patriots were kind of

490
00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:46,879
Speaker 6: down one or two guys and not quite fully fully

491
00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 6: up to speed. But with everyone back, we kind of

492
00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:50,399
Speaker 6: saw a White get a little bit lost in the shuffle.

493
00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:52,679
Speaker 6: So I think he still has a ton of upside,

494
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:55,560
Speaker 6: but not quite enough for me to play him at

495
00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:57,600
Speaker 6: that price. So that's that's the guy I'll probably be

496
00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:01,359
Speaker 6: be off of and a psycho as well. At ninety.

497
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:04,880
Speaker 6: That's just a lot for him going against this front.

498
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:07,880
Speaker 6: Seawn kind of hit on it, so we did see block.

499
00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:10,639
Speaker 6: We have a huge run, a huge game actually against

500
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:13,320
Speaker 6: the Eagles, and they haven't been as good on defense

501
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:15,200
Speaker 6: against running backs as we're accustomed to.

502
00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:18,160
Speaker 3: But I just think that you.

503
00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:20,640
Speaker 6: Know, you don't you don't necessarily have to jam in

504
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 6: the highest priced guy on this slate at running back

505
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 6: when you have Gordon Cheaper, Pete mentioned, James Connor, David Johnson,

506
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:31,040
Speaker 6: just a lot of guys that you can kind of

507
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 6: replicate that outside.

508
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:36,159
Speaker 5: With Sean, what about you, who is a high priced

509
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:38,560
Speaker 5: guy you will probably be looking to avoid.

510
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:42,119
Speaker 4: My pivot play is not a high priced guy, but

511
00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:46,080
Speaker 4: it's the Baltimore Ravens backfield. I think I'm going to

512
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 4: fade Gus Edwards and take Alex Collins this week. You know,

513
00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:56,399
Speaker 4: I'm still working on those projections. Something like projected carries

514
00:23:56,480 --> 00:24:00,879
Speaker 4: is very subjective. There's no formula to project that, so

515
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:05,040
Speaker 4: I have them pretty much tied right now, but I'll

516
00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:07,760
Speaker 4: be waiting to see, you know, where the public opinion is.

517
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:10,280
Speaker 4: And if Gus Edwards seems like he's going to be,

518
00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 4: you know, pretty high D and people are ignoring Alvis Collins,

519
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:16,400
Speaker 4: I'm just going to try to take whoever the lowest

520
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:19,480
Speaker 4: projected ownership guy is going to be. They're essentially the

521
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:23,640
Speaker 4: same price. So I definitely want to invest in one

522
00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:26,280
Speaker 4: of the running backs against the Raiders this week. And

523
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:30,160
Speaker 4: I think Collins could be overlooked right now. But yeah,

524
00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:33,720
Speaker 4: Gus Edwards, I was looking, you know, at Rudgers. He

525
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:38,320
Speaker 4: only had one one hundred yard game per season, so

526
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:41,000
Speaker 4: I guess he's had his won this year in the NFL.

527
00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:44,320
Speaker 4: So but he's a guy that you know, I've been

528
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:47,119
Speaker 4: tracking him ever since the preseason. If if you're a

529
00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:51,240
Speaker 4: pre preseason Degen playing DFS, he was a guy we

530
00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:54,240
Speaker 4: were taking every week because the Ravens had the extra

531
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 4: game with the Hall of Fame slate, so they just

532
00:24:57,640 --> 00:24:59,680
Speaker 4: got Gus Edwards a ton in the preseason. So he

533
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:03,760
Speaker 4: didn't out of nowhere. But yeah, you know, I'm interested

534
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:06,240
Speaker 4: to hear what you guys think on that situation because

535
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:08,680
Speaker 4: it's tough. I just think people are gonna flock t

536
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:12,480
Speaker 4: edwards and we could see, you know, a game where

537
00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:15,359
Speaker 4: Alex Collins gets fifteen touches in a couple of touchdowns.

538
00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 5: All right, Pete, is there anyone high price right now

539
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:20,640
Speaker 5: that you are kind of thinking, Yeah, this is someone

540
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:21,960
Speaker 5: I'm really going to stay away from.

541
00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:22,960
Speaker 2: I mean, it's hard.

542
00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:24,880
Speaker 1: I think the guy that I, you know, push them

543
00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:26,760
Speaker 1: to shove. I had to fat someone who's expensive, it'd

544
00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:29,800
Speaker 1: probably be Christian McCaffrey. You know, Aaron Jones did just

545
00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 1: beat Seattle through the air, which is concerning. But this

546
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:34,919
Speaker 1: defense is a little bit better than people think. And

547
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 1: I definitely prefer someone like Melvin Gordon, and I think

548
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:41,160
Speaker 1: James Connor, a little bit cheaper, probably makes more sense

549
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:42,280
Speaker 1: than Christian McCaffrey.

550
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:43,640
Speaker 2: But it's a struggle.

551
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:46,080
Speaker 1: I mean, I I that this, you know, the top

552
00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:49,000
Speaker 1: end guys, considering there's not a ton of them this

553
00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 1: week with the best offenses on by, it's hard to

554
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:53,560
Speaker 1: kind of be like, Okay, I'm fading. I feel really

555
00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:56,400
Speaker 1: great about fading some of these studs. So Christi McCaffrey

556
00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:59,119
Speaker 1: probably at the top the shots. Gus Edwards point that

557
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:01,119
Speaker 1: this is where I'm really struggling. So the reason I

558
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 1: was so high on Alex Collins last week is we've

559
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 1: seen how effective running backs could be with running quarterbacks.

560
00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 1: I knew going in after watching a ton of Lamar

561
00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 1: Jackson playing a ton of preseason that this guy is

562
00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:14,480
Speaker 1: really just a glorified running back who really struggles to

563
00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 1: throw his port reading defenses and his accuracy is marginal

564
00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:21,080
Speaker 1: at best. So you knew they were going to run

565
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:22,520
Speaker 1: a time, They're going to play good defense, and I

566
00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:24,520
Speaker 1: think that's going to be the game plan for them

567
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:27,680
Speaker 1: going forward, at least until Black who comes back, it

568
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:30,159
Speaker 1: becomes back at all. So the running backs are going

569
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:33,760
Speaker 1: to a lot of opportunity. Those zone reads are really effective,

570
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:37,040
Speaker 1: Edwards is really impactful, and this is just a dream matchup.

571
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:39,200
Speaker 1: So one of the running backs is going to go off.

572
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:41,520
Speaker 1: I think it's just a matter of figuring out who

573
00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:44,120
Speaker 1: it is. And I think you're probably right for tournaments,

574
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 1: John trying to gage the ownership, but Edwards looked like

575
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 1: the better runner last week, and you still buck out

576
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 1: back there, So I don't know, I'm trying to figure

577
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:52,959
Speaker 1: it out. You guys, I mean, raybind you haven't come

578
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:54,360
Speaker 1: into too much on you as strongly.

579
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:56,640
Speaker 6: I've kind of been doing work on this because doing

580
00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:59,080
Speaker 6: the rankings on Fantasy pros, I'm trying to figure some

581
00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:02,480
Speaker 6: of these things out. And I looked at the correlations

582
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:07,040
Speaker 6: for what amount of sample size of games is the

583
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:11,000
Speaker 6: most predictive in terms of like rushing attempt market share.

584
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:14,160
Speaker 6: And it's tricky, but it usually is at its best

585
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:17,240
Speaker 6: after about like three three or so games. For running backs,

586
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 6: it stabilizes really quickly because obviously it's kind of it's

587
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 6: not just pure luck.

588
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:24,120
Speaker 3: It's also you know, the coaching staff has a hand

589
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:24,359
Speaker 3: in that.

590
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 6: And so I do lean to Edwards because just because

591
00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:31,600
Speaker 6: he's kind of they showed that they you know, seventeen

592
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 6: carries for him and he and he got the one

593
00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:37,000
Speaker 6: hundred and fifteen yards and Collins, even though he had

594
00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:38,960
Speaker 6: a touchdown early, they went away from him and he

595
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 6: only got eighteen yards. So I think I could I

596
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:44,200
Speaker 6: see this situation kind of the way I see the

597
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:49,600
Speaker 6: situation happening. What happened in Philly where Joshua Adams is

598
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:53,159
Speaker 6: kind of quietly taking over that backfield. And you know,

599
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:55,439
Speaker 6: Alex Collins has been a guy that this year he

600
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 6: only hit four yards per carry, and obviously that's a

601
00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:01,000
Speaker 6: very noisy stat, but you know that doesn't mean coaches

602
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 6: aren't looking at it and making decisions based on it.

603
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 6: You only hit forty yards per Carrie in two of

604
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:08,159
Speaker 6: his games this season. I think it is going to

605
00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:11,120
Speaker 6: lean a little bit toward Edwards. That doesn't mean preclude

606
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:12,960
Speaker 6: Collins from having a big game, because I think the

607
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 6: Ravens will want to run the ball forty fifty times

608
00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:17,960
Speaker 6: if they can, so it's going to be hard to predict.

609
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:20,600
Speaker 6: But I still wean Edwards as far as you know

610
00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:23,199
Speaker 6: who I'm projecting for more carries, who I'm projecting for

611
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:26,040
Speaker 6: more upside, And I like Josh Adams by the way,

612
00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:29,880
Speaker 6: as a pivot off all of this Collins, Edward, Frank Gore,

613
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 6: even Peyton, Barbara Madness. So I think Adams as a

614
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:36,760
Speaker 6: home favorite against this Giants Run Dye without Daman Harrison

615
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:40,680
Speaker 6: is a nice little contrarian tournament play with kind of

616
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 6: a similar outlook to all these guys were talking about.

617
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 5: Okay, let's talk a little bit about some of these

618
00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:48,480
Speaker 5: games and games specifically that we might want to stack

619
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:52,560
Speaker 5: bucks game. Obviously, that's going to be some something that's popular.

620
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 5: Fifty five point over under the Dolphins and Colts game. Obviously,

621
00:28:57,120 --> 00:29:00,080
Speaker 5: Andrew Locke is someone that will be intriguing in that

622
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 5: obviously has a high total, But then all these other

623
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 5: games on the slate are in the forties. Rabon, let's

624
00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 5: start with you. Is there one of these games in

625
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,040
Speaker 5: particular that kind of catches your eye that you think

626
00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:12,480
Speaker 5: has a pretty decent chance of producing a lot of

627
00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:14,120
Speaker 5: usable Fantasy points?

628
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:16,880
Speaker 6: So this is going to be surprising because it's the lowest.

629
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:20,000
Speaker 6: I think it's the lowest total on the slate, But

630
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:24,000
Speaker 6: I think everyone's going to ignore the Bills and Jags game,

631
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:26,560
Speaker 6: and I think that's going to create some value, especially

632
00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 6: in tournaments. You have like Sean McCoy here sitting at

633
00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:31,720
Speaker 6: forty two hundred on DraftKings.

634
00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 3: That's way too cheap for a.

635
00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 6: Guy that just got twenty eight carries and caught a

636
00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:39,959
Speaker 6: ball against the Jets in a blowout. I think that

637
00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 6: you're going to see the Bills seed him again because

638
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:44,480
Speaker 6: what else are they going to really do? And people,

639
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:47,160
Speaker 6: especially after James Connor kind of had this dud against

640
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:48,160
Speaker 6: Jacksonville last week.

641
00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:49,600
Speaker 3: I think people are really going to be off that,

642
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 3: but I do like I like him in this game.

643
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:55,920
Speaker 6: And then I think Sean mentioned Leonard Fournette on the

644
00:29:55,960 --> 00:29:58,440
Speaker 6: other side. He's just been, you know, kind of coming

645
00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:00,880
Speaker 6: back and being a high sage guy, and they're going

646
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 6: to keep feeding him. But Blake Bors only had eighteen

647
00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 6: attempts last week in a game they ended up losing,

648
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:08,160
Speaker 6: So that kind of shows you where Jacksonville is at

649
00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:12,240
Speaker 6: in terms of their trust in Lake Bortles. And because

650
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 6: of that, I think both of the running backs in

651
00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 6: this game, and then obviously both of the defenses, there's

652
00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:18,040
Speaker 6: a lot there's gonna be a lot of value on

653
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:19,400
Speaker 6: them because I don't think people are really going to

654
00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 6: want to touch them too much. So I love the

655
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:22,800
Speaker 6: correlation plays on both sides with those guys.

656
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:24,600
Speaker 5: All right, Sean, what do you got?

657
00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:28,640
Speaker 4: Yeah? So I love the Niners Bucks game. Of course

658
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 4: we haven't talked about it yet, but Matt Brida could

659
00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 4: be a great play. He should be fully healed from

660
00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:36,800
Speaker 4: his nagging ankle injury that he's had all season. So

661
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:40,040
Speaker 4: you know, I love a lot of game stacks there.

662
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:44,960
Speaker 4: A sneaky one could be the Browns Bengals game. I

663
00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 4: just think there's there's a lot of stacking options there,

664
00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:51,880
Speaker 4: and we also get instant Hugh Jackson revenge game narrative.

665
00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:55,920
Speaker 4: So I just think those defenses capable that that could

666
00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 4: be a higher scoring game than people think. So, so

667
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:00,520
Speaker 4: I'll be looking to have a few games that's there.

668
00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 5: All right, Pete, what about you?

669
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:06,360
Speaker 2: Yeah?

670
00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 1: I think the best game for sure is this Bucks

671
00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:12,440
Speaker 1: forty nine Ers game. Goodwin was excused for personal reasons,

672
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:16,360
Speaker 1: but assuming he's fine, I definitely will have some Markis

673
00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:20,160
Speaker 1: Goodwin running it back. I think Kittles in play for sure.

674
00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:22,840
Speaker 1: Brida is a great, great call, and then all the

675
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:25,760
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay guys. It's going to be monitoring Howard as well.

676
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:28,240
Speaker 1: But that's clearly the best spot. I mean, the total

677
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:30,040
Speaker 1: has come up from fifty four and a half to

678
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:32,520
Speaker 1: fifty five and insack that game and still get in

679
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:35,360
Speaker 1: some other studs. So that's by far my favorite spot.

680
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 1: I agree, I was going to bring up as a

681
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 1: sneaky game. I think the Browns Bengals is probably the

682
00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 1: one I like most. Especially AJ greenplays. I think that

683
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:46,480
Speaker 1: just opens everything up and there's just a lot of

684
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:47,480
Speaker 1: guys that you can go after.

685
00:31:48,280 --> 00:31:50,719
Speaker 2: Every other game gives me a little bit of pause.

686
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 2: You know.

687
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 1: A higher total is the Steelers Bronco game. I definitely

688
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:57,560
Speaker 1: like Courtland Sutton, but Steelers defense has been playing better

689
00:31:57,600 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 1: and Denver might you know, show up pretty well in

690
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:04,320
Speaker 1: this game after a really great win against the Chargers.

691
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:06,040
Speaker 2: So that gives me a little bit of pause.

692
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:09,720
Speaker 1: And yeah, the Cold Stalphins game is the next highest

693
00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:14,200
Speaker 1: total after the San Francisco Buccaneers game. But who are

694
00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:17,600
Speaker 1: you gonna trust on Miami? I know that Sewn brought

695
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:21,440
Speaker 1: up Frank Gore and Raybon brought up Kenny Stills. Those

696
00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 1: are definitely tournament plays that you could play in, but

697
00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:26,520
Speaker 1: I don't have a ton of confidence in them scoring.

698
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:28,680
Speaker 1: And this could be a great spot for the Colts

699
00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:29,800
Speaker 1: defense and maybe a big.

700
00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:30,400
Speaker 2: Marlan Mac game.

701
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:34,400
Speaker 1: So the other games aren't as enticing to me as

702
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:36,800
Speaker 1: the San Francisco Tampa Bay game, which will be chocky.

703
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 1: So I need to figure out a really good pivot

704
00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:42,720
Speaker 1: and hopefully the Cleveland Cincinnati game stays low on because

705
00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:44,520
Speaker 1: I definitely like that second best as of now.

706
00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:49,600
Speaker 5: Sean who scores more fantasy points Goodwin or Godwin in

707
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 5: the forty nine ers Bocks game.

708
00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 4: Ooh, good one. Let's see, I'm gonna have to go

709
00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 4: with Goodwin, although yeah, I mean if Pete mentioned it,

710
00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 4: but if oj Howard is out, that definitely opens up

711
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:05,800
Speaker 4: targets all around. And you know, with Winston under center,

712
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:09,160
Speaker 4: Cameron Brake would be an interesting play, right if Howard's

713
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:11,880
Speaker 4: will that we've talked about extensively, how Winston seems to

714
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:15,680
Speaker 4: favor break more than we realize. So yeah, I'm gonna

715
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:17,280
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with Goodwin.

716
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 5: All right. So for the next segment of the show,

717
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:24,640
Speaker 5: normally we do the the bold picks or bold plays,

718
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:26,600
Speaker 5: but we're going to change it up just a little

719
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:29,160
Speaker 5: bit so there can still be like a level of

720
00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:32,000
Speaker 5: boldness associated with this, because we are nothing of not bold,

721
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:34,440
Speaker 5: but it can be more kind of in the realm

722
00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:38,080
Speaker 5: of like your favorite maybe non obvious pick or something

723
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 5: like that. To get this started off, I will lead

724
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:45,479
Speaker 5: by example. My pick is, well, it's not obvious, but

725
00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 5: I'm not being bold with this either. I'm picking the

726
00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 5: Jets not to win outright, but I think to make

727
00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:53,800
Speaker 5: this close, the Patriots and the Jets are both coming

728
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:55,600
Speaker 5: off of a bye. The Pats are favorite on the

729
00:33:55,640 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 5: road by nine and a half. I think this is

730
00:33:57,280 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 5: a close game. I think the Jets cover. I think

731
00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:01,920
Speaker 5: the narrative with the Patriots is that they are coming

732
00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:04,280
Speaker 5: off of a loss, they have an extra week to prepare,

733
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:06,640
Speaker 5: so we should look for them really to bounce back.

734
00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:08,640
Speaker 5: But if you look at the tools at bet Labs

735
00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 5: and fantasy Labs, you will notice a lot of negative

736
00:34:11,239 --> 00:34:14,800
Speaker 5: indicators for the Patriots, especially Tom Brady as he's aged.

737
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:17,319
Speaker 5: He's struggled in the second half of the season. He's

738
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:20,880
Speaker 5: struggled on the road, he's struggled against divisional opponents. Also,

739
00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:23,240
Speaker 5: the Pats haven't been nearly as good against the spread

740
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:26,040
Speaker 5: when opposing coaches have had extra time to gain plan

741
00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:29,080
Speaker 5: against them. And that's even been in situations when the

742
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:31,840
Speaker 5: Patriots have had extra time to plan. And my theory

743
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:34,799
Speaker 5: is that Belichick is so knowledgeable and organized that he

744
00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 5: doesn't really need the extra time, but that the opposing

745
00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:41,319
Speaker 5: coaches actually do benefit from the extra time. So this

746
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:44,360
Speaker 5: is like my favorite kind of like non obvious bet.

747
00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:47,120
Speaker 5: I don't think the Jets will win, but it wouldn't

748
00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:50,040
Speaker 5: surprise me if this came down to like a last

749
00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:52,440
Speaker 5: two minutes of the game, the Patriots win by a

750
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:55,319
Speaker 5: field goal type of thing. And then my call for

751
00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:59,760
Speaker 5: fantasy jameis Winston number one overall fantasy quarterback going against

752
00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:02,640
Speaker 5: the four nine ers, just just go ahead and and

753
00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:05,560
Speaker 5: bury me on on this island here. Uh you know

754
00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:08,840
Speaker 5: so anyway, Yeah, that's that's that's what I'm going with, Sean.

755
00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:11,480
Speaker 5: Based on your reaction, I have a feeling that's maybe

756
00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:13,319
Speaker 5: the person you were going to go with.

757
00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:13,879
Speaker 2: Yeah.

758
00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:16,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, usually I get to go first on that, but

759
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:18,680
Speaker 4: you stole it from me. That's that's my DFS bold

760
00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:19,520
Speaker 4: call is that.

761
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:23,600
Speaker 2: When we all we all wanted to take Yeah, do

762
00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:26,839
Speaker 2: you think I went island all there?

763
00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 3: It is bull.

764
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:30,040
Speaker 4: I mean saying that he's gonna play the entire game

765
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:31,040
Speaker 4: is pretty bold.

766
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:33,719
Speaker 2: So I mean, if he does that, he plays the

767
00:35:33,719 --> 00:35:34,080
Speaker 2: whole game.

768
00:35:34,120 --> 00:35:36,799
Speaker 4: Sean, let me think on that one.

769
00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:39,240
Speaker 2: Uh, whatever amount you want, I'll take.

770
00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:42,400
Speaker 4: All right, Yeah, well we'll do that offline, but I

771
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:45,040
Speaker 4: think I definitely want to take that bet. And then

772
00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:48,480
Speaker 4: for real life it's more betting advice. I'm saying, take

773
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:53,240
Speaker 4: the points the falcons. I think it's plus thirteen plus

774
00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:55,560
Speaker 4: thirteen and a half at some shops. So this is

775
00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:58,399
Speaker 4: a line where I have I have it around ten

776
00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:01,000
Speaker 4: and a half. So you know, I mentioned it last

777
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:02,919
Speaker 4: week that the Saints are now the number one team

778
00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:06,680
Speaker 4: in my power ratings. They have been ever since last week,

779
00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:09,680
Speaker 4: so this, you know, this game should be closer to

780
00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:13,160
Speaker 4: ten and a half eleven. So I'm thinking they're anticipately

781
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:15,279
Speaker 4: a ton of public money on this. But you know,

782
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:17,399
Speaker 4: you got to take the points here, and we kind

783
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:20,759
Speaker 4: of need to have Dion Jones return this week to

784
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:24,760
Speaker 4: have any chance of containing album Kamara. But I'm taking

785
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:27,839
Speaker 4: the Pluster team this game, and it's similar to what

786
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:29,960
Speaker 4: you called on the Jets. I don't think the Falcons

787
00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:31,080
Speaker 4: are going to win, but I think it's gonna be

788
00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:32,440
Speaker 4: closer than people think.

789
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:35,960
Speaker 5: Interested as a side out, everyone can find Sean's Power

790
00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:40,960
Speaker 5: ratings at the Action Network under the NFL section ramon,

791
00:36:41,160 --> 00:36:41,879
Speaker 5: what do you have for.

792
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:43,320
Speaker 3: Us for a play?

793
00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:47,759
Speaker 6: My bold call is going to be Nick Chubb finishes

794
00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:51,759
Speaker 6: as the top running back this week. He has been

795
00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 6: doing something that I've kind of taken notice of, which

796
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:57,640
Speaker 6: again goes back to this rushing attemp market chair. So

797
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:01,719
Speaker 6: he's been getting He got ninety six percent of the

798
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:04,560
Speaker 6: carries two games ago, and then he got eighty seven

799
00:37:04,640 --> 00:37:07,279
Speaker 6: percent of the carries in his last game. And this

800
00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:09,480
Speaker 6: has been a trend with Cleveland pretty much all year,

801
00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 6: no matter who the coach has been, they've been given

802
00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:13,600
Speaker 6: that number one running back a ton of a ton

803
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:15,920
Speaker 6: of carries. And then on top of that, you had

804
00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:18,440
Speaker 6: You've had Chubb kind of start to get more and

805
00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:21,799
Speaker 6: more involved in the passing game as well. And he

806
00:37:22,160 --> 00:37:25,879
Speaker 6: played a season high in in snaps in his last game,

807
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:27,759
Speaker 6: So he played even though you know all this Duke

808
00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 6: Johnson kind of broke out, Chubb still got seventy nine

809
00:37:31,080 --> 00:37:33,719
Speaker 6: percent snap rate in So I love Chubb against the

810
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:38,560
Speaker 6: Cincinnati defense, which just got stampeded on last week. I

811
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:40,520
Speaker 6: think that I think that Chubb has a ton of

812
00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:41,960
Speaker 6: upside and he's kind of in this middle tier that

813
00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:42,919
Speaker 6: no one's really talking about.

814
00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:43,839
Speaker 3: So like Chubb.

815
00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:46,160
Speaker 6: And then for my bowk off for a bet, I

816
00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:48,799
Speaker 6: like the Bills at home as the underdog here. You

817
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 6: know it's not Super Bowl, but they are a you know,

818
00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:54,279
Speaker 6: they are a three point underdog even though they're at home.

819
00:37:54,320 --> 00:37:56,680
Speaker 6: And when you have a favorite of three or more

820
00:37:56,719 --> 00:37:59,200
Speaker 6: points on a losing streak, of six or more games,

821
00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:02,600
Speaker 6: such as the jaz they've they've only they're only seven

822
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:04,840
Speaker 6: and twelve against the spread going back to two thousand

823
00:38:04,880 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 6: and three, according to betwas. I think that's a that's

824
00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 6: a that's a trend where people are just kind of

825
00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:11,799
Speaker 6: fading the Bills because they're looked at as a.

826
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:12,879
Speaker 3: You know, the worst team in the week.

827
00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:15,080
Speaker 6: But I think at home they've shown that they can

828
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:16,719
Speaker 6: They're not the worst team that we got.

829
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:17,960
Speaker 3: You know, we see it. We saw them well out

830
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:18,360
Speaker 3: the Jets.

831
00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:20,759
Speaker 6: We saw them get a game against Tennessee, who was

832
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:23,319
Speaker 6: probably a little scrappier than we thought, and that they've covered.

833
00:38:23,320 --> 00:38:25,440
Speaker 3: They covered against Houston and some teams. So I like

834
00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:26,320
Speaker 3: the Bills in the spot.

835
00:38:26,560 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 5: They're coming off of the bye too, at home, coming

836
00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:32,439
Speaker 5: off of the buye, So a pretty nice situation for them. Pete,

837
00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:33,279
Speaker 5: what do you have for us?

838
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:33,959
Speaker 2: Have nothing?

839
00:38:34,000 --> 00:38:37,000
Speaker 1: I mean, you guys still literally I think the Bills

840
00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:39,759
Speaker 1: is my favorite bet of the week. I like them

841
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:41,960
Speaker 1: on the money line in a big way. I think

842
00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:45,360
Speaker 1: that that's a price depending where you look, there's some

843
00:38:45,360 --> 00:38:48,160
Speaker 1: pretty big discrepancies there. I think in general, the public

844
00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:51,520
Speaker 1: just still thinks the Bills are absolutely putrid, which obvious

845
00:38:51,520 --> 00:38:53,879
Speaker 1: their quarterback play hasn't been good and they're not scoring points,

846
00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:56,239
Speaker 1: but they played great defense at home, and I think

847
00:38:56,320 --> 00:38:59,960
Speaker 1: this Jacksonville team after that heartbreaking loss, is in big trouble.

848
00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:02,279
Speaker 2: So that's my favorite bet of the week in terms

849
00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:04,719
Speaker 2: of Fantasy. I was gonna say Jameis Winston, but yeah, Shoul,

850
00:39:04,719 --> 00:39:08,239
Speaker 2: I'll stand brand. I'll say Courtland Sutton's the highest score

851
00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:11,840
Speaker 2: on the board. I need it bad. This is the

852
00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:14,480
Speaker 2: last week if you guys put any best balls on draft.

853
00:39:14,520 --> 00:39:17,120
Speaker 2: This is the last week for the championships. I'm looking

854
00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:17,879
Speaker 2: great right now.

855
00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:19,680
Speaker 1: I have thirty of one hundred and fifty best ball

856
00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:23,439
Speaker 1: teams in first place, which is what I'm really happy about.

857
00:39:23,560 --> 00:39:25,799
Speaker 1: Definitely better than my DF best results so far this year.

858
00:39:25,920 --> 00:39:27,080
Speaker 2: But all those.

859
00:39:26,920 --> 00:39:30,799
Speaker 1: Teams have like some combination of chiefs and rams. So

860
00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:33,640
Speaker 1: it's really important for these championships if you can get through.

861
00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:36,840
Speaker 1: And my heaviest DON player outside of Zach ertzus Courtland Sutton.

862
00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:39,600
Speaker 1: So I need a miracle from Courtland Sutton to have

863
00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:41,160
Speaker 1: a good, good finish.

864
00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:43,880
Speaker 5: Here are you going to be betting his props his

865
00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:45,120
Speaker 5: player props this week?

866
00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:47,439
Speaker 2: Of course, just for good luck.

867
00:39:47,560 --> 00:39:50,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, anyway, segment, nothing.

868
00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:51,959
Speaker 2: Like leverage on Courtland Sutton. He hasn't burned me at all.

869
00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:56,880
Speaker 5: This year, right, right, Okay. The betting segment of the show, Sean,

870
00:39:57,040 --> 00:39:59,480
Speaker 5: you are going to set the mines for us. Specifically,

871
00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:02,840
Speaker 5: you're going to focus on players you have some uncertainty about,

872
00:40:03,080 --> 00:40:05,400
Speaker 5: and then we are going to help you reach some

873
00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:08,319
Speaker 5: sort of consensus based on our action. This is a

874
00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:11,720
Speaker 5: side note. Obviously, Sean's projections powered the Fantasy Labs models

875
00:40:11,840 --> 00:40:14,920
Speaker 5: as well as our props tool, which compare Shawn's projections

876
00:40:14,920 --> 00:40:17,520
Speaker 5: with the props at various sportsbooks and shows which bets

877
00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:19,680
Speaker 5: provide the most value this season. The props with the

878
00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:22,560
Speaker 5: bet quality of ten are one, eighty seven, eighty nine,

879
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:25,239
Speaker 5: and eight, which is good for an outstanding hit rate

880
00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:27,279
Speaker 5: of sixty six percent. Be sure to check out the

881
00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:32,160
Speaker 5: props tool at Fantasy Labs. For subscribers, you are slowly

882
00:40:32,280 --> 00:40:35,160
Speaker 5: creeping back towards five hundred last week. All of us

883
00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:37,400
Speaker 5: were around five hundred on the season. Our guests are

884
00:40:37,440 --> 00:40:40,480
Speaker 5: sixty nine and fifty five. I'm sixty eight and forty eight.

885
00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:43,920
Speaker 5: Pet you are fifty and fifty six, and Odds Maker

886
00:40:44,160 --> 00:40:47,920
Speaker 5: is one fifty nine and one eighty seven, Sean, what

887
00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:49,520
Speaker 5: props do you have for us this week?

888
00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 4: So I'm going to start off with the toughest QB

889
00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:56,480
Speaker 4: projection this week, and that is Lamar Jackson's rushing yards.

890
00:40:57,000 --> 00:40:58,960
Speaker 4: I can't figure out how high to set it, so

891
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:00,839
Speaker 4: I'm going to meet you guys help on this. But

892
00:41:01,120 --> 00:41:04,760
Speaker 4: right now I have his over under at sixty five

893
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:05,719
Speaker 4: and a half.

894
00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:11,200
Speaker 1: Over I think it should be around like eighty yards.

895
00:41:11,280 --> 00:41:14,240
Speaker 4: I mean obviously, Yeah, what do you think the player

896
00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:17,359
Speaker 4: props like Pinnacle set for that two and a half

897
00:41:17,440 --> 00:41:19,600
Speaker 4: or something. Yeah, I'll probably take the under on that,

898
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:21,959
Speaker 4: but yeah, this is really for sure.

899
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:23,680
Speaker 1: But I mean, what else are they going to I

900
00:41:23,719 --> 00:41:25,799
Speaker 1: think they're going to continue to just do a ton

901
00:41:25,840 --> 00:41:28,520
Speaker 1: of read option stuff and I mean just watch him

902
00:41:28,520 --> 00:41:31,120
Speaker 1: when he doesn't have his first read runs every time.

903
00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:33,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I mean I gotta be careful if I

904
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:36,120
Speaker 4: if I said his rushing production of like eighty, he'll

905
00:41:36,200 --> 00:41:39,040
Speaker 4: just like break the models. So I've been caustious, but

906
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:41,480
Speaker 4: I think throughout the week you'll see me creeping up

907
00:41:41,480 --> 00:41:44,279
Speaker 4: on that number, especially after you guys hammered sixty five

908
00:41:44,320 --> 00:41:44,760
Speaker 4: and a half.

909
00:41:44,800 --> 00:41:46,320
Speaker 5: So yeah, get it.

910
00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:46,920
Speaker 4: Tweak it up.

911
00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:49,960
Speaker 5: One thing of note Anthony Miko, who contributes to a

912
00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:52,680
Speaker 5: couple of pieces to Action Network. He posted a video

913
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:56,960
Speaker 5: where you see every run that Lamar Jackson had and

914
00:41:57,000 --> 00:41:59,239
Speaker 5: he's actually been pretty good. And maybe this is like

915
00:41:59,360 --> 00:42:01,520
Speaker 5: small sample, one time thing, but like he was very

916
00:42:01,560 --> 00:42:05,640
Speaker 5: good at avoiding like direct contact, and you know, like

917
00:42:05,719 --> 00:42:07,600
Speaker 5: maybe that is just kind of like a skill that

918
00:42:07,680 --> 00:42:10,120
Speaker 5: he has, Like some quarterbacks are actually very good at

919
00:42:10,160 --> 00:42:13,520
Speaker 5: not taking hard hits. Maybe that's something that he actually

920
00:42:13,600 --> 00:42:14,720
Speaker 5: has in his tool bag.

921
00:42:14,880 --> 00:42:19,840
Speaker 4: All right, next up, Andrew Luck. How many passing touchdowns

922
00:42:19,880 --> 00:42:22,040
Speaker 4: will I throw for over? Under? Two and a half?

923
00:42:22,520 --> 00:42:22,840
Speaker 2: Under?

924
00:42:23,320 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm going under.

925
00:42:24,880 --> 00:42:27,080
Speaker 2: It's just a high number. It's a high notver.

926
00:42:27,280 --> 00:42:29,840
Speaker 5: I'm gonna go over just to be just to be different.

927
00:42:30,200 --> 00:42:32,960
Speaker 5: But I think the sharp side is under there. But

928
00:42:33,440 --> 00:42:34,759
Speaker 5: I don't know, I don't I don't have a lot

929
00:42:34,760 --> 00:42:36,120
Speaker 5: of respect for Miami.

930
00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:36,760
Speaker 2: On the player.

931
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:38,239
Speaker 1: Perhaps if you look, I mean, two and a half

932
00:42:38,239 --> 00:42:41,239
Speaker 1: touchdowns is like the highest you'll see. Yeah, that's what

933
00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:43,560
Speaker 1: it was, even for golf and my homes. Obviously there's

934
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:45,480
Speaker 1: a lot of juice on the over last night, but

935
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:47,800
Speaker 1: a really great prop is two and a half touchdowns

936
00:42:47,800 --> 00:42:50,239
Speaker 1: and like even money on both sides, so probably where

937
00:42:50,239 --> 00:42:51,160
Speaker 1: Angel will fall.

938
00:42:51,200 --> 00:42:54,279
Speaker 4: But I think the under, yeah, I think they'll have Yeah,

939
00:42:54,280 --> 00:42:56,839
Speaker 4: they'll probably have like minus one thirty on the under

940
00:42:56,920 --> 00:42:59,520
Speaker 4: or something. But like I said, seven straight games of

941
00:42:59,560 --> 00:43:03,200
Speaker 4: three touchdown passes or more so, willing to take some

942
00:43:03,320 --> 00:43:05,719
Speaker 4: underbets on that next up, I have to have a

943
00:43:05,760 --> 00:43:08,640
Speaker 4: bucks QB prop every week. I just have to. So

944
00:43:09,360 --> 00:43:13,760
Speaker 4: jamis Winston passing yards, I'll give you guys three multiple

945
00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:16,759
Speaker 4: choice options. Will will it be under two fifty and

946
00:43:16,800 --> 00:43:19,480
Speaker 4: a half, between two fifty and a half and three

947
00:43:19,640 --> 00:43:22,320
Speaker 4: thirty and a half or more than three thirty and

948
00:43:22,360 --> 00:43:22,760
Speaker 4: a half.

949
00:43:23,040 --> 00:43:25,000
Speaker 5: That was much higher than I thought it was going

950
00:43:25,040 --> 00:43:28,680
Speaker 5: to be. On the upper limit there the middle bucket.

951
00:43:28,719 --> 00:43:30,920
Speaker 5: The middle bucket is my bucket.

952
00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:33,680
Speaker 4: That's where I'm that's your brand, You're in the bucket.

953
00:43:34,160 --> 00:43:37,040
Speaker 2: That's a massive amount of date right there. That's one

954
00:43:37,120 --> 00:43:38,480
Speaker 2: that's a clear stay away.

955
00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:40,800
Speaker 3: I'm going with the lowest one.

956
00:43:40,880 --> 00:43:44,239
Speaker 6: There's a chance that they commit to the run a

957
00:43:44,280 --> 00:43:47,359
Speaker 6: little bit more after Barbara had a good game. I

958
00:43:47,400 --> 00:43:49,799
Speaker 6: think that, and I think there's a good chance that

959
00:43:50,040 --> 00:43:53,160
Speaker 6: if he's not performing up to standard against this San

960
00:43:53,200 --> 00:43:56,320
Speaker 6: Francisco team, that he's just gonna get bested to get Yeah.

961
00:43:56,360 --> 00:43:58,399
Speaker 4: So to be fair, this is the only prop I'm

962
00:43:58,440 --> 00:44:00,839
Speaker 4: having any vegan. So this is a huge thirty three

963
00:44:01,280 --> 00:44:04,560
Speaker 4: big for me. But I'm not I'm not giving you.

964
00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:07,879
Speaker 4: You've been very kind to the big. Yeah, So if

965
00:44:07,880 --> 00:44:09,640
Speaker 4: you can see just you know, just send me the

966
00:44:09,719 --> 00:44:10,800
Speaker 4: quarters light directly.

967
00:44:11,520 --> 00:44:13,520
Speaker 1: I'll say here here, I'll do this just for you

968
00:44:13,640 --> 00:44:16,000
Speaker 1: because I'm bullish and Jameis Winston I said he's gonna

969
00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:17,920
Speaker 1: be the highest scoring guy. I'm probably gonna plan in

970
00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:21,640
Speaker 1: cash on fandle so I'll take over. So Sean's guaranteed

971
00:44:21,640 --> 00:44:25,320
Speaker 1: two and one. Yes, Yes, that is the book maker's

972
00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:28,520
Speaker 1: dream right there. Yes, finally it took me twelve weeks.

973
00:44:29,120 --> 00:44:32,120
Speaker 1: Moving to running back the guy we've all been waiting for,

974
00:44:32,200 --> 00:44:37,239
Speaker 1: Gus Edwards. His rushing prop has been a nightmare so far.

975
00:44:37,360 --> 00:44:40,680
Speaker 1: But I'm probably gonna be tweaking it all week. Right now,

976
00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:45,280
Speaker 1: I have it at sixty two and a half over.

977
00:44:45,920 --> 00:44:48,480
Speaker 5: I'll go over. But I think it's a pretty good line.

978
00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:50,080
Speaker 2: It's definitely a good line.

979
00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:53,720
Speaker 4: Yeah with him, I mean it's it's essentially just project

980
00:44:53,960 --> 00:44:55,799
Speaker 4: projected rush attempts.

981
00:44:55,800 --> 00:44:58,040
Speaker 2: Really, I'll go over. Yeah.

982
00:44:58,080 --> 00:45:00,640
Speaker 5: The thing that makes me a little more willing to

983
00:45:00,680 --> 00:45:02,960
Speaker 5: go over with him as opposed to thinking that they

984
00:45:03,040 --> 00:45:06,720
Speaker 5: might backslide to Alex Collins. Is that that team specifically

985
00:45:06,800 --> 00:45:10,040
Speaker 5: has a history of just like rotating to new backs.

986
00:45:10,480 --> 00:45:12,319
Speaker 5: And then like I also think, and this is like

987
00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:15,319
Speaker 5: narrative Street, but like, uh, I think like Harbaugh is

988
00:45:15,360 --> 00:45:18,080
Speaker 5: looking for something new, you know, like he's on the

989
00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:21,440
Speaker 5: hot seat. He had success with what happened last week.

990
00:45:21,560 --> 00:45:23,319
Speaker 5: I think he's just gonna kind of go back to

991
00:45:23,360 --> 00:45:26,279
Speaker 5: that again this week and hope that he continues to

992
00:45:26,280 --> 00:45:28,160
Speaker 5: have success with it and it saves his job.

993
00:45:28,600 --> 00:45:31,160
Speaker 4: Agreed. And that's why if you remember from the preseason,

994
00:45:31,160 --> 00:45:34,960
Speaker 4: I had Alix Collins in the Frozen Pond. Heer, yes,

995
00:45:35,160 --> 00:45:37,920
Speaker 4: because of this very situation. You're right about Harbaugh.

996
00:45:38,120 --> 00:45:38,440
Speaker 2: All right.

997
00:45:38,600 --> 00:45:43,440
Speaker 4: So last, but not least, Saquon Barkley over under twenty

998
00:45:43,520 --> 00:45:46,920
Speaker 4: three point seven DK points under under.

999
00:45:47,640 --> 00:45:50,160
Speaker 6: Oh gotta get to my projections. Give me one, Seck,

1000
00:45:50,960 --> 00:45:52,920
Speaker 6: I am going to go over.

1001
00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:55,960
Speaker 5: Actually I was a donkey. I did this before even

1002
00:45:56,000 --> 00:45:59,080
Speaker 5: looking what your projections are in the models. Did you

1003
00:45:59,480 --> 00:46:00,319
Speaker 5: inflate the number?

1004
00:46:00,680 --> 00:46:01,759
Speaker 4: I take it a little bit.

1005
00:46:01,960 --> 00:46:04,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, of course.

1006
00:46:04,200 --> 00:46:04,919
Speaker 3: I like the over.

1007
00:46:05,440 --> 00:46:08,680
Speaker 6: I think I think he he gets back on the

1008
00:46:08,719 --> 00:46:11,200
Speaker 6: receiving on the receiving train, and I think the Pats

1009
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:12,839
Speaker 6: are gonna struggle in this game. And I think that's

1010
00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:14,560
Speaker 6: why he gets over, because he's just gonna catch a

1011
00:46:14,560 --> 00:46:16,560
Speaker 6: lot of passes. It's a good one, very good one,

1012
00:46:16,800 --> 00:46:17,160
Speaker 6: all right.

1013
00:46:17,239 --> 00:46:22,400
Speaker 4: So wide receiver, flashback to our preseason pods where we

1014
00:46:22,400 --> 00:46:26,440
Speaker 4: talk about this guy NonStop. Josh Gordon receiving hours this

1015
00:46:26,480 --> 00:46:30,840
Speaker 4: week at the Jets over under seventy and a half over.

1016
00:46:31,200 --> 00:46:34,600
Speaker 5: I will say under, just to dovetail with my my

1017
00:46:34,640 --> 00:46:35,200
Speaker 5: bold call.

1018
00:46:35,880 --> 00:46:38,719
Speaker 6: I'm laughing because I went to look at my projections

1019
00:46:38,760 --> 00:46:41,360
Speaker 6: and I literally have Gordon at seventy yards.

1020
00:46:41,480 --> 00:46:46,000
Speaker 3: So good line by Sean. I guess I'll I'll take the.

1021
00:46:46,000 --> 00:46:48,640
Speaker 2: Under massive Josh Gordon Truther and I.

1022
00:46:48,840 --> 00:46:51,879
Speaker 6: Yeah, Bronk is back, so I think there's a chance

1023
00:46:51,880 --> 00:46:53,200
Speaker 6: that could be a little more spread around.

1024
00:46:53,760 --> 00:46:57,200
Speaker 4: So next up a guy that we really haven't talked

1025
00:46:57,320 --> 00:47:00,359
Speaker 4: about yet, but t Y Hilton. You know we all

1026
00:47:00,360 --> 00:47:03,840
Speaker 4: think Angela's gonna have a big game. Certainly Ty Hilton's

1027
00:47:03,840 --> 00:47:07,080
Speaker 4: gonna benefit from that. I have his receiving yard projection

1028
00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:10,520
Speaker 4: at seventy three and a half over or under under

1029
00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:11,800
Speaker 4: over under.

1030
00:47:12,200 --> 00:47:14,240
Speaker 2: Under, much higher mean than median.

1031
00:47:14,920 --> 00:47:16,200
Speaker 3: That's how I'm looking at it too.

1032
00:47:16,239 --> 00:47:19,560
Speaker 6: It's like he gets his his average will be inflated

1033
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:21,640
Speaker 6: because he gets those, you know, those plays like he

1034
00:47:21,680 --> 00:47:24,160
Speaker 6: did last week, those long touchdowns. But if he doesn't

1035
00:47:24,160 --> 00:47:25,960
Speaker 6: have that, he's actually been a guy who's had a

1036
00:47:26,000 --> 00:47:28,400
Speaker 6: bunch of these games where he has had lower yardage

1037
00:47:28,400 --> 00:47:29,920
Speaker 6: totals then we're accustomed to.

1038
00:47:30,239 --> 00:47:34,399
Speaker 3: So I have him a little bit lower than that line.

1039
00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:35,279
Speaker 3: I'm going under.

1040
00:47:35,680 --> 00:47:38,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, he's definitely boom or bust and that kind of

1041
00:47:38,400 --> 00:47:42,439
Speaker 5: DeShawn Jackson mold, but I don't know like him as

1042
00:47:42,520 --> 00:47:45,480
Speaker 5: a favorite at home, like that is his smash spot,

1043
00:47:45,800 --> 00:47:47,239
Speaker 5: So I'll go.

1044
00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:50,360
Speaker 4: Over all right. So, going back to a preseason pod,

1045
00:47:51,160 --> 00:47:54,520
Speaker 4: Freeman and Raybond had a ten minute debate on Keenan

1046
00:47:54,600 --> 00:47:58,200
Speaker 4: Allen versus AJ Green. Hopefully AJ Green returns this week,

1047
00:47:58,280 --> 00:48:01,920
Speaker 4: girls will you know squad prop But for DK points,

1048
00:48:02,200 --> 00:48:04,600
Speaker 4: Keenan Allen minus one and a half versus A J.

1049
00:48:04,760 --> 00:48:07,000
Speaker 4: Green plus one and a half. Yeah, and I forgot

1050
00:48:07,040 --> 00:48:08,120
Speaker 4: who was on Keenan Allen?

1051
00:48:08,239 --> 00:48:10,520
Speaker 6: Was that I like Keenan Allen, So Freeman won that

1052
00:48:10,719 --> 00:48:13,439
Speaker 6: until I mean Green got hurt, Like now Allen's picking

1053
00:48:13,520 --> 00:48:13,920
Speaker 6: up steam.

1054
00:48:14,000 --> 00:48:16,960
Speaker 3: But I would say, I would say Freeman has the edge.

1055
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:19,040
Speaker 4: So you were on AJ Green? I forgot who was

1056
00:48:19,120 --> 00:48:20,080
Speaker 4: on which side?

1057
00:48:20,320 --> 00:48:21,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was on Allen. I was on Allen.

1058
00:48:23,000 --> 00:48:25,279
Speaker 6: So yeah, Freeman definitely has the advantage, and like in

1059
00:48:25,719 --> 00:48:28,520
Speaker 6: terms of what's happened so far until the injury.

1060
00:48:28,600 --> 00:48:31,759
Speaker 5: Until the injury, Yeah, I mean, I I want to

1061
00:48:31,800 --> 00:48:34,640
Speaker 5: stay on AJ Green brand, but I can't do it.

1062
00:48:35,400 --> 00:48:37,440
Speaker 5: I have to go with the guy who's actually healthy,

1063
00:48:38,160 --> 00:48:40,239
Speaker 5: because I could see it being a situation where Green,

1064
00:48:40,719 --> 00:48:42,520
Speaker 5: I mean not like a decoy, but where he just

1065
00:48:42,680 --> 00:48:45,240
Speaker 5: he doesn't get the volume in, isn't able to separate.

1066
00:48:45,480 --> 00:48:46,840
Speaker 5: So yeah, I'll go with Keenan Allen.

1067
00:48:47,200 --> 00:48:48,920
Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, I'm going with the same I mean, I

1068
00:48:49,040 --> 00:48:52,200
Speaker 6: just yeah, there's no guarantees with with aj G and

1069
00:48:53,080 --> 00:48:56,919
Speaker 6: the Browns defense not not exactly a pushover either.

1070
00:48:57,040 --> 00:48:59,319
Speaker 4: So yeah, all right, So next up at Titan, I'm

1071
00:48:59,360 --> 00:49:02,600
Speaker 4: gonna do something different. So this is about Rob Gronkowski's

1072
00:49:02,640 --> 00:49:05,439
Speaker 4: receiving yards. I'm gonna let you guys set a line

1073
00:49:05,480 --> 00:49:07,680
Speaker 4: if you want, and I'll give you a twenty one

1074
00:49:07,760 --> 00:49:11,000
Speaker 4: yard cushion over under, and if you get it within

1075
00:49:11,120 --> 00:49:13,279
Speaker 4: that range, you in the bet, or you can or

1076
00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:15,640
Speaker 4: you can make me do it, You do it, okay,

1077
00:49:18,719 --> 00:49:21,120
Speaker 4: all right, I'll wait till the end if anybody wants

1078
00:49:21,200 --> 00:49:24,720
Speaker 4: to set their own line for this, or if everybody

1079
00:49:24,840 --> 00:49:26,279
Speaker 4: just wants to gang up on me and.

1080
00:49:26,400 --> 00:49:29,080
Speaker 5: Have me right on, Are you gonna set your own line?

1081
00:49:29,480 --> 00:49:29,680
Speaker 4: Nah?

1082
00:49:30,920 --> 00:49:33,280
Speaker 2: See, Sean's got okay.

1083
00:49:33,440 --> 00:49:35,680
Speaker 5: Let me see you said a twenty one yard cushion

1084
00:49:36,000 --> 00:49:39,959
Speaker 5: over and under. Okay, I will be bold and set

1085
00:49:40,080 --> 00:49:45,359
Speaker 5: a really fish line on this. Sixty seven yards.

1086
00:49:45,920 --> 00:49:48,920
Speaker 2: Sixty seven okay, So I'm set like fifty if I

1087
00:49:48,920 --> 00:49:50,680
Speaker 2: would have done it, just sure what it's worth.

1088
00:49:51,040 --> 00:49:54,320
Speaker 4: So, so Freeman gets between eighty eight and forty six yards,

1089
00:49:54,840 --> 00:49:58,640
Speaker 4: I'm gonna set mine at fifty three. So I get

1090
00:49:58,719 --> 00:50:03,839
Speaker 4: between seventy thirty two, all right, and then Zach Ertz

1091
00:50:04,080 --> 00:50:08,800
Speaker 4: minus two DK points versus George Kittle ERTs Kittle.

1092
00:50:09,239 --> 00:50:10,359
Speaker 3: That's a good line.

1093
00:50:10,520 --> 00:50:14,680
Speaker 5: I am going Kittle, yeah, going against the Buccaneers. I mean,

1094
00:50:14,760 --> 00:50:18,600
Speaker 5: it wouldn't be surprising if Kittle outscored Ertz, like I

1095
00:50:18,640 --> 00:50:21,920
Speaker 5: wouldn't bet on it. But I mean you can easily

1096
00:50:22,040 --> 00:50:26,120
Speaker 5: see how that happens, especially if Goodwin misses time. But

1097
00:50:26,239 --> 00:50:28,000
Speaker 5: I mean I think Kittle is the number one option

1098
00:50:28,719 --> 00:50:32,160
Speaker 5: on that team. Anyway, the Buccaneers obviously one of the

1099
00:50:32,200 --> 00:50:35,719
Speaker 5: worst teams in the league against tight ends, and I

1100
00:50:35,760 --> 00:50:37,759
Speaker 5: mean they are missing, like I don't I can't even

1101
00:50:38,120 --> 00:50:40,680
Speaker 5: keep count of how many starters at this point they're missing,

1102
00:50:41,560 --> 00:50:44,360
Speaker 5: but you know, like missing there, they're starting strong safety,

1103
00:50:44,880 --> 00:50:49,040
Speaker 5: missing multiple coverage linebackers. Yeah, I think I'll take the

1104
00:50:49,280 --> 00:50:50,800
Speaker 5: points with Kittle for me.

1105
00:50:50,920 --> 00:50:52,759
Speaker 6: It also goes back to the fact that, like if

1106
00:50:52,800 --> 00:50:56,920
Speaker 6: you look at Ertz's smash spots, they've come more in

1107
00:50:57,080 --> 00:51:00,680
Speaker 6: games where the Eagles have I would, aside from the

1108
00:51:00,680 --> 00:51:02,680
Speaker 6: Saints game obviously, but they've come more so in games

1109
00:51:02,719 --> 00:51:06,080
Speaker 6: where Eagles have struggled a bit, and I don't expect

1110
00:51:06,120 --> 00:51:09,920
Speaker 6: them to struggle this week. So I think that Kitto

1111
00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:12,560
Speaker 6: is in a better spot to kind of, you know,

1112
00:51:12,719 --> 00:51:15,200
Speaker 6: game script wise. I think I think his team is

1113
00:51:15,239 --> 00:51:16,960
Speaker 6: less likely to kind of jump out, so we did

1114
00:51:17,000 --> 00:51:17,720
Speaker 6: not need to throw.

1115
00:51:17,880 --> 00:51:20,360
Speaker 4: All right, So going off the main slate for the

1116
00:51:20,680 --> 00:51:24,560
Speaker 4: last prop, Jordan Reid receiving yards at Dallas. You know,

1117
00:51:24,840 --> 00:51:27,840
Speaker 4: Alex Smith suffered that brutal leg injury, so like it

1118
00:51:28,000 --> 00:51:31,600
Speaker 4: be Colt McCoy this week, and Jordan Reid actually caught

1119
00:51:31,680 --> 00:51:34,000
Speaker 4: his touchdown when Colt McCoy was in the game, so

1120
00:51:34,480 --> 00:51:35,880
Speaker 4: I'm not sure if it's going to be that much

1121
00:51:35,920 --> 00:51:38,279
Speaker 4: of a drop off for him. But right now I

1122
00:51:38,440 --> 00:51:40,719
Speaker 4: have his over under at forty nine and a half

1123
00:51:40,880 --> 00:51:42,799
Speaker 4: receiving yards over.

1124
00:51:43,960 --> 00:51:45,000
Speaker 2: Is league gonna be out again?

1125
00:51:45,040 --> 00:51:48,759
Speaker 5: I assume that hamstring right only, Yeah, I think that's

1126
00:51:48,920 --> 00:51:50,360
Speaker 5: the assumption right now, that he's.

1127
00:51:50,280 --> 00:51:54,319
Speaker 2: Out right, I'll take over Joran Reid Truther, I'll go under.

1128
00:51:55,440 --> 00:51:58,440
Speaker 5: And I'm conflicted about that. I don't want to like

1129
00:51:58,480 --> 00:52:02,440
Speaker 5: the Cowboys defense, but it's it's impressing me more than

1130
00:52:02,480 --> 00:52:05,239
Speaker 5: I expected to to. So we are going to close

1131
00:52:05,280 --> 00:52:08,640
Speaker 5: out the show by looking quickly at Sunday Night Football.

1132
00:52:08,800 --> 00:52:10,960
Speaker 5: We have the four five and one Packers at the

1133
00:52:11,280 --> 00:52:14,400
Speaker 5: five four and one Vikings. Vikings favored by three eight

1134
00:52:14,520 --> 00:52:17,160
Speaker 5: forty eight point over under. The spread is down from

1135
00:52:17,200 --> 00:52:19,440
Speaker 5: four and a half where it opened. Is a rematch

1136
00:52:19,640 --> 00:52:21,920
Speaker 5: of the epic twenty nine twenty nine tie in a

1137
00:52:21,960 --> 00:52:24,239
Speaker 5: week two. Both teams are fighting for a playoff spot.

1138
00:52:24,360 --> 00:52:28,320
Speaker 5: Both teams are coming off of a week eleven loss. Chris,

1139
00:52:28,800 --> 00:52:30,200
Speaker 5: do you have any thoughts on this game.

1140
00:52:30,520 --> 00:52:33,600
Speaker 6: It's funny watching the Packers because it's just become apparent

1141
00:52:33,760 --> 00:52:38,240
Speaker 6: that you know Aaron Rodgers, future Hall of Famer Davante Adams,

1142
00:52:38,800 --> 00:52:42,000
Speaker 6: absolute monster, and then everyone else is just like every

1143
00:52:42,040 --> 00:52:43,279
Speaker 6: other receiver is just like.

1144
00:52:43,600 --> 00:52:46,160
Speaker 3: Good quote unquote good because of Aaron Rodgers.

1145
00:52:46,239 --> 00:52:49,520
Speaker 6: Like there's really like get we get excited about these guys,

1146
00:52:49,600 --> 00:52:50,920
Speaker 6: you know in different weeks when they when they have

1147
00:52:51,040 --> 00:52:52,880
Speaker 6: good games, but reality's just still Rodgers.

1148
00:52:52,920 --> 00:52:55,360
Speaker 3: And I think in this spot, I think Rogers.

1149
00:52:55,320 --> 00:52:59,359
Speaker 6: Coming off that loss to Seattle, desperately needs this win.

1150
00:52:59,520 --> 00:53:02,880
Speaker 6: I know Minesota does too, but I think that Rogers

1151
00:53:02,920 --> 00:53:05,440
Speaker 6: shows up in primetime. If you look at his against

1152
00:53:05,480 --> 00:53:09,080
Speaker 6: the spread in primetime divisional games, he's sixteen and seven cousins,

1153
00:53:09,360 --> 00:53:11,600
Speaker 6: you know, all time in primetime games, five and eleven

1154
00:53:12,080 --> 00:53:14,000
Speaker 6: against the spread never seems to show up. So I

1155
00:53:14,160 --> 00:53:16,440
Speaker 6: like the Packers, but I do think that this game

1156
00:53:16,560 --> 00:53:18,799
Speaker 6: is one where you don't want to just necessarily look

1157
00:53:18,840 --> 00:53:20,440
Speaker 6: at like that twenty nine to twenty nine game and

1158
00:53:20,520 --> 00:53:22,360
Speaker 6: think there's going to be a ton of points. This

1159
00:53:22,480 --> 00:53:25,560
Speaker 6: is a second divisional meeting. Usually see lower scoring games

1160
00:53:26,080 --> 00:53:29,120
Speaker 6: in that second meetings. That's really where I'm kind of leading.

1161
00:53:29,160 --> 00:53:31,680
Speaker 6: I'm leading with the Packers and not expecting quite as

1162
00:53:31,719 --> 00:53:34,239
Speaker 6: many points. I think Aaron Jones gets fed again. But

1163
00:53:34,239 --> 00:53:36,040
Speaker 6: I think the Vikings defense is going to be better

1164
00:53:36,320 --> 00:53:38,160
Speaker 6: than the first time these teams met, and I think

1165
00:53:38,200 --> 00:53:40,440
Speaker 6: it'll be a little uglier than we might expect. But

1166
00:53:40,640 --> 00:53:42,239
Speaker 6: I love Aaron Jones in this game, and I like

1167
00:53:42,320 --> 00:53:43,399
Speaker 6: Dalvin Cook on the other side.

1168
00:53:43,600 --> 00:53:46,200
Speaker 5: All right, So Chris against the spread, you're going with

1169
00:53:46,280 --> 00:53:49,080
Speaker 5: the Packers. One thing that is interesting, more from a

1170
00:53:49,160 --> 00:53:53,520
Speaker 5: DFS perspective, since Mike Zimmer joined the Vikings, I believe

1171
00:53:53,520 --> 00:53:57,640
Speaker 5: in twenty fourteen, they have been the least friendly home

1172
00:53:57,760 --> 00:54:02,320
Speaker 5: team to opposing quarterbacks from a raw fantasy points perspective

1173
00:54:02,440 --> 00:54:07,879
Speaker 5: and a A plus minus perspective. Minnesota just a very

1174
00:54:07,960 --> 00:54:13,799
Speaker 5: good home team against opposing quarterbacks. So Rogers, although he's great,

1175
00:54:14,400 --> 00:54:17,200
Speaker 5: you know, historically what has been a difficult spot and

1176
00:54:17,280 --> 00:54:19,279
Speaker 5: then also in the second game of the division, so

1177
00:54:19,760 --> 00:54:22,480
Speaker 5: familiarity with him. Sean thoughts on this game.

1178
00:54:22,840 --> 00:54:25,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, So I had this game with my power ratings

1179
00:54:25,440 --> 00:54:28,759
Speaker 4: opening up at Vikings minus four, so I'll definitely be

1180
00:54:28,920 --> 00:54:33,120
Speaker 4: leaning Vikings minus three. I don't think I would take

1181
00:54:33,160 --> 00:54:35,520
Speaker 4: the minus three and a half. That's such a key number.

1182
00:54:35,520 --> 00:54:37,719
Speaker 4: I could see the Vikings winning this by exactly three.

1183
00:54:37,840 --> 00:54:40,920
Speaker 4: So the early money seems to be on the Packers,

1184
00:54:41,560 --> 00:54:43,799
Speaker 4: So the line's going down closer to three. So I'll

1185
00:54:43,800 --> 00:54:46,520
Speaker 4: probably wait till Sunday if I take this at all

1186
00:54:46,680 --> 00:54:49,320
Speaker 4: and take take the points at home. Rogers could be

1187
00:54:49,360 --> 00:54:51,479
Speaker 4: getting back Randall a Cob this week, but he lost

1188
00:54:51,560 --> 00:54:54,960
Speaker 4: Jimmy Graham, So you know, I think that's gonna next.

1189
00:54:55,280 --> 00:54:56,959
Speaker 2: You're trying to play through that broken thumb.

1190
00:54:57,080 --> 00:54:57,680
Speaker 4: I thought he was.

1191
00:54:58,120 --> 00:55:01,319
Speaker 6: It's great, even a factor, like like the man, these

1192
00:55:01,360 --> 00:55:02,919
Speaker 6: guys don't even matter anymore.

1193
00:55:02,719 --> 00:55:05,359
Speaker 3: Like like none of these like I said, like none

1194
00:55:05,400 --> 00:55:07,359
Speaker 3: of like who caught the touchdown last week?

1195
00:55:07,560 --> 00:55:10,000
Speaker 4: Like tell me his name quick, Robert Tyan.

1196
00:55:10,360 --> 00:55:11,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, just testing.

1197
00:55:12,360 --> 00:55:14,480
Speaker 6: I bet I've bet like ninety nine percent of the

1198
00:55:14,520 --> 00:55:17,360
Speaker 6: population does it doesn't have any idea who that guy is.

1199
00:55:17,440 --> 00:55:20,359
Speaker 6: But like, I just think that like Jimmy Graham hasn't

1200
00:55:20,360 --> 00:55:22,160
Speaker 6: been a factor for like two years, honestly.

1201
00:55:22,480 --> 00:55:24,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, I mean I thought he'd at least have

1202
00:55:24,719 --> 00:55:26,920
Speaker 4: a presence in the red zone. But you're right, I

1203
00:55:26,960 --> 00:55:29,160
Speaker 4: think it's just gonna be more predictable that he's going

1204
00:55:29,239 --> 00:55:32,080
Speaker 4: to be going to DeVante Adams. So I just think

1205
00:55:32,280 --> 00:55:34,520
Speaker 4: there's more ways to shut Rogers down. I just like

1206
00:55:34,560 --> 00:55:36,040
Speaker 4: the Vikings at home here minus three.

1207
00:55:36,480 --> 00:55:40,160
Speaker 5: Can we get some Jake Kumero up in here? Uh yeah,

1208
00:55:40,280 --> 00:55:42,880
Speaker 5: some some preseason Pete, what are your thoughts on this

1209
00:55:42,960 --> 00:55:43,279
Speaker 5: game here?

1210
00:55:43,560 --> 00:55:46,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I'm just totally unbulerable what Shohn said.

1211
00:55:46,440 --> 00:55:50,120
Speaker 1: I'm massive on the Vikings here. I think forced the

1212
00:55:50,160 --> 00:55:50,800
Speaker 1: correct line.

1213
00:55:51,239 --> 00:55:51,960
Speaker 2: You can get three.

1214
00:55:52,040 --> 00:55:56,080
Speaker 1: It's it's right Vikings, better team, Vikings at home. I

1215
00:55:56,160 --> 00:55:58,960
Speaker 1: know it's Aaron Rodgers, but the rest of the Screen

1216
00:55:59,000 --> 00:56:01,920
Speaker 1: Bay team is struggling, and I think Minnesota is better

1217
00:56:01,960 --> 00:56:04,239
Speaker 1: than they've shown. That Chicago team is really really good,

1218
00:56:04,680 --> 00:56:06,600
Speaker 1: and it was a tough spot for them. So the

1219
00:56:06,840 --> 00:56:09,480
Speaker 1: Vikings play well down the stretch and they'll be right there.

1220
00:56:09,600 --> 00:56:11,160
Speaker 1: The game that I think is going to decide that

1221
00:56:11,200 --> 00:56:14,120
Speaker 1: division is going to be Chicago at Minnesota at the

1222
00:56:14,239 --> 00:56:14,800
Speaker 1: end of the season.

1223
00:56:15,719 --> 00:56:18,000
Speaker 5: In terms of looking at this game from against the

1224
00:56:18,080 --> 00:56:21,080
Speaker 5: spread perspective, I'm with Shawn and with Pete there, I

1225
00:56:21,120 --> 00:56:26,120
Speaker 5: would go with the Vikings. Okay, if Shawn's making this

1226
00:56:26,200 --> 00:56:28,160
Speaker 5: game at four and right now the lines at three,

1227
00:56:28,320 --> 00:56:29,800
Speaker 5: I mean, it's not as if it's you know, like

1228
00:56:29,920 --> 00:56:33,000
Speaker 5: a huge, a huge lean either way. Like I mean,

1229
00:56:33,239 --> 00:56:35,319
Speaker 5: you could you could easily see how either of these

1230
00:56:35,360 --> 00:56:37,320
Speaker 5: teams wins the game that is going to do it.

1231
00:56:37,880 --> 00:56:42,719
Speaker 5: For this special Thanksgiving combo Wednesday Friday episode of the

1232
00:56:42,800 --> 00:56:45,120
Speaker 5: Action Network NFL podcast, be sure to rate, review, and

1233
00:56:45,200 --> 00:56:47,600
Speaker 5: subscribe to the pod for all of our upcoming episodes

1234
00:56:47,840 --> 00:56:50,960
Speaker 5: for Peter Jennings, Shawn Corner, and Chris Raybond. I'm Matthew

1235
00:56:51,000 --> 00:56:53,480
Speaker 5: Friedman manfil workle see you again next episode.