WEBVTT - Week 1 NFL Best Bets (Ep. 55) 0:00:14.040 --> 0:00:17.000 Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the 0:00:17.079 --> 0:00:20.640 Betting Pros NFL podcast. I am your host, Dan Harris. 0:00:20.680 --> 0:00:23.200 You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris. Adie 0:00:23.200 --> 0:00:26.480 with me is Matt Perrault, host of the Daily Juice podcast. 0:00:26.520 --> 0:00:28.920 You can find him on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt. 0:00:28.960 --> 0:00:29.200 Matt. 0:00:29.240 --> 0:00:29.680 What's up? 0:00:29.920 --> 0:00:33.280 Hi, NFL football? It's here. I can't believe it's here, 0:00:33.320 --> 0:00:33.840 but it's here. 0:00:34.240 --> 0:00:37.920 I said it on our Fantasy Pros Football podcast this morning. 0:00:38.200 --> 0:00:40.640 My wife told me that I just let out a 0:00:40.680 --> 0:00:42.960 big giggle, like I turned on the TV and I 0:00:43.040 --> 0:00:45.879 just giggled, and I was like, Okay, that's fine. It 0:00:45.960 --> 0:00:47.720 was amazing, And I don't know about you, It didn't 0:00:47.760 --> 0:00:51.440 feel that weird last night. Like I didn't really notice 0:00:51.520 --> 0:00:54.080 that there weren't that many people in the stands and 0:00:54.120 --> 0:00:55.280 stuff like that felt normal. 0:00:55.480 --> 0:00:57.360 Yeah. I think what I equated it to was like 0:00:57.400 --> 0:01:00.240 a blowout game in the fourth quarter. We're like, we've 0:01:00.240 --> 0:01:02.640 seen games where guys are playing and there's nobody there, 0:01:02.720 --> 0:01:05.319 or there's like eighteen thousand there, and you know, chief 0:01:05.319 --> 0:01:07.240 fans did their best to be heard and yelled and 0:01:07.480 --> 0:01:10.360 yelling and screaming. So yeah, I mean, I've said this 0:01:10.400 --> 0:01:13.039 since the the you know, sports pandemic has started. When 0:01:13.040 --> 0:01:15.479 it comes to the UFC events on TV, I don't 0:01:15.520 --> 0:01:18.800 notice fans not being there. You know, occasionally I will. 0:01:19.080 --> 0:01:21.920 In basketball, it looks like a two K game to me, 0:01:22.040 --> 0:01:24.080 so it's like, you know, it looks normal to me 0:01:24.240 --> 0:01:26.440 watching it on TV. I think if I was there, 0:01:26.840 --> 0:01:30.600 I might say it's different. But from a television viewership perspective, well, 0:01:30.640 --> 0:01:32.960 I don't know. I mean, look, it's sports on TV. Man, 0:01:33.040 --> 0:01:33.479 I'm good. 0:01:33.800 --> 0:01:36.520 Other than Andy Reid's you know, welding mask that he 0:01:36.600 --> 0:01:38.920 basically was wearing the entire time, you would't have noticed 0:01:38.959 --> 0:01:41.880 the difference. I also felt really good about cashing in 0:01:42.000 --> 0:01:45.240 on my Chiefs plus one hundred and one points bet 0:01:45.319 --> 0:01:47.440 that we got on that special offer from draftings, which 0:01:47.440 --> 0:01:49.240 is why you want to listen to us and listen 0:01:49.240 --> 0:01:51.200 to maths podcasts The Daily Juice, which is one of 0:01:51.240 --> 0:01:53.800 my favorite listens fifteen minute podcasts first thing in the 0:01:53.800 --> 0:01:55.960 morning every day. Got a ton of offers when they 0:01:56.000 --> 0:01:58.240 come out, so that was one of them. The Chiefs 0:01:58.240 --> 0:02:01.440 plus one hundred and one points not a joke at 0:02:01.480 --> 0:02:02.200 minus one ten. 0:02:02.320 --> 0:02:04.520 Yeah. I talked to Johnny Avello from DraftKings on my 0:02:04.640 --> 0:02:07.200 radio show, and he told me that they did ten 0:02:07.320 --> 0:02:10.760 million dollars. Yeah, that was their handle for that game, 0:02:10.919 --> 0:02:13.760 which is playoff game esque for DraftKings. It was their 0:02:13.760 --> 0:02:16.040 biggest NFL game. But he's young, he's been around for 0:02:16.080 --> 0:02:18.120 a long time, so but ten million is a pretty 0:02:18.120 --> 0:02:20.359 good handle for one game for DraftKings. 0:02:20.520 --> 0:02:22.959 Yeah, you bet. Okay. So this is a little later 0:02:23.000 --> 0:02:24.000 in the week and we're going to be doing it. 0:02:24.040 --> 0:02:26.040 We're usually going to record on Wednesday, which is what 0:02:26.080 --> 0:02:27.840 we had planned to do. It was my fault. We 0:02:27.880 --> 0:02:30.240 had a crazy schedule. Matt is fitting this in in 0:02:30.320 --> 0:02:33.120 between moving, which he is doing the second. We are 0:02:33.120 --> 0:02:35.000 done with this, So let me break down here what 0:02:35.040 --> 0:02:36.720 we're gonna do a little bit on the weekly show. 0:02:37.000 --> 0:02:39.560 We've got something kind of cool. Matt and I are 0:02:39.639 --> 0:02:43.760 doing a picks contest together over at DraftKings. The DraftKings 0:02:44.040 --> 0:02:48.160 Pick Them Championship first prize, a million dollars guaranteed. You 0:02:48.200 --> 0:02:50.919 have to make five picks every week except for two. 0:02:50.960 --> 0:02:52.840 You get to take two weeks off from weeks one 0:02:52.880 --> 0:02:54.720 through sixteen. It's a little weird. So there's gonna be 0:02:54.720 --> 0:02:57.200 some game theory on there. Separately, Matt is doing a 0:02:57.360 --> 0:03:00.560 separate big money picks contest. So we're we're gonna be 0:03:00.560 --> 0:03:03.360 breaking down our choices from us as a team, and 0:03:03.400 --> 0:03:05.520 Matt is also we're not going to necessarily agree. I'm 0:03:05.520 --> 0:03:07.520 not necessarily going to agree with what Matt is doing. 0:03:07.800 --> 0:03:10.400 Maybe I will, we'll see. But Matt, tell everybody about 0:03:10.560 --> 0:03:12.440 your contest that you're in. I will tell everybody a 0:03:12.480 --> 0:03:14.680 little bit about DraftKings and then we will get to it. 0:03:14.840 --> 0:03:17.840 Sure. So I'm in the Circa Million and that is 0:03:18.080 --> 0:03:21.679 a three million dollar guarantee which has seen a ton 0:03:21.720 --> 0:03:24.280 of publicity and a lot of attention here in Vegas 0:03:24.560 --> 0:03:27.560 because of that overlay the three million dollars being guaranteed 0:03:27.600 --> 0:03:30.440 first place prize a million every four weeks with the 0:03:31.280 --> 0:03:34.079 quarter poll awards, it comes out with one hundred and 0:03:34.120 --> 0:03:37.000 fifty thousand dollars for first place in the award, second 0:03:37.000 --> 0:03:39.640 and third place as well. So this is five games 0:03:39.640 --> 0:03:42.120 against the spread. The difference between the Circa and the 0:03:42.200 --> 0:03:46.440 DraftKings contest. DraftKings does not make you enter all five 0:03:46.440 --> 0:03:49.800 of the picks in if you want to play Thursday DraftKings. 0:03:49.960 --> 0:03:52.240 Circa does so. If I want to play the THURSDA 0:03:52.280 --> 0:03:54.000 Night game like last night, which I didn't play in 0:03:54.000 --> 0:03:56.080 the Circa. We bet it for the Daily Juice, but 0:03:56.120 --> 0:03:58.280 not with the Circa. You had to put in all 0:03:58.320 --> 0:04:00.760 the picks for Sunday, and you just can't do that 0:04:00.920 --> 0:04:04.560 given the uncertainty today in sports and with COVID nineteen 0:04:04.720 --> 0:04:06.520 injuries and whatnot. I mean, look at the injuries that 0:04:06.560 --> 0:04:09.200 popped up today for games. It's a bad move. It's 0:04:09.200 --> 0:04:11.880 a losing move to play Thursdays in the Circa. But 0:04:12.080 --> 0:04:14.600 for DraftKings they let you put one in and then 0:04:14.640 --> 0:04:16.760 four on Sundays. So circa rules are a bit more 0:04:16.760 --> 0:04:18.960 restrictive than what we're seeing with the DK rules. 0:04:19.240 --> 0:04:22.039 Yeah, and you can also get them in on Sunday morning. 0:04:22.080 --> 0:04:24.320 I think Circa locks on Saturday, Matt correct. 0:04:24.120 --> 0:04:26.320 Right, three pm Pacific time on Saturday, right. 0:04:26.240 --> 0:04:27.880 So you get a little extra and you don't have 0:04:27.920 --> 0:04:30.560 to put them in the DraftKings contest all at once. 0:04:30.640 --> 0:04:32.320 If you don't want it, you can submit them sort 0:04:32.360 --> 0:04:34.200 of as you go. And again it's a little weird 0:04:34.240 --> 0:04:37.120 because it's only fourteen of sixteen weeks. You get to 0:04:37.120 --> 0:04:38.919 take two weeks off, so you can be looking at 0:04:38.960 --> 0:04:40.960 a tough one makes for a lot of game theory. 0:04:40.960 --> 0:04:43.520 Matt's going to go all through the seventeen weeks of 0:04:43.560 --> 0:04:45.800 the NFL season, So that's what we're going to be doing. 0:04:45.880 --> 0:04:48.920 So Matt, why don't we start like this? And there 0:04:48.920 --> 0:04:50.880 may be, by the way, different odds because I don't 0:04:50.880 --> 0:04:52.760 know what the Circa odds are versus the DraftKings. 0:04:52.880 --> 0:04:54.320 Oh they're different, Yeah, they are different. 0:04:54.600 --> 0:04:57.120 Okay, good, So why don't we get started here at 0:04:57.200 --> 0:04:58.760 your Circa Sports pick? 0:04:59.040 --> 0:04:59.240 Matt. 0:04:59.279 --> 0:05:02.680 By the way, Mat, I legitimately like he sent a 0:05:02.720 --> 0:05:05.960 couple of games that he's feeling. I agree with two 0:05:06.040 --> 0:05:09.159 of them. I want not sure about the third necessarily, 0:05:09.200 --> 0:05:11.599 but we're legitimately going to be working at our picks 0:05:12.000 --> 0:05:14.240 on this podcast. So welcome to a little you know, 0:05:14.360 --> 0:05:16.479 behind the scenes. It's gonna be a lot of fun. So, Matt, 0:05:16.520 --> 0:05:19.120 but you feel confident on you said at least four 0:05:19.160 --> 0:05:21.120 of your five picks over at the circle, right. 0:05:21.160 --> 0:05:24.239 Yeah, So okay, we can start with the Cardinals here 0:05:24.400 --> 0:05:26.479 catching six and a half on the road at the 0:05:26.520 --> 0:05:29.359 forty nine ers, and I think there's a good shot 0:05:29.360 --> 0:05:32.919 that the Cardinals win this game outright, And I'm really 0:05:33.000 --> 0:05:35.039 high on this team. I'm high on Murray I'm high 0:05:35.040 --> 0:05:37.120 on the offense. The defense for the forty nine ers 0:05:37.160 --> 0:05:39.160 not nearly as good. I do believe there's a hangover 0:05:39.200 --> 0:05:41.320 from a Super Bowl perspective, but catching six and a 0:05:41.360 --> 0:05:43.479 half given the way the Cardinals played the last two 0:05:43.560 --> 0:05:46.640 games of last year against the forty nine Ers, played 0:05:46.720 --> 0:05:49.360 in pretty tight They covered once, they didn't cover in 0:05:49.400 --> 0:05:51.560 the second game. But this is a Cardinals team that 0:05:51.600 --> 0:05:54.360 I think has a ton of offensive firepower and I look, 0:05:54.360 --> 0:05:56.360 Garoppolo is a fun quarterback, and they're going to run 0:05:56.360 --> 0:05:58.400 the ball like they always do. But I think this 0:05:58.480 --> 0:06:01.400 is a Cardinals team that's going to be explosive and 0:06:01.800 --> 0:06:04.920 really dangerous on a week to week basis. So six 0:06:04.960 --> 0:06:06.599 and a half is the number of the circa. I 0:06:06.640 --> 0:06:08.680 believe DraftKings is seven right for that game? 0:06:08.760 --> 0:06:10.440 No, I think DraftKings is six and a half when 0:06:10.440 --> 0:06:11.599 they finally okay, yeah put it. 0:06:11.640 --> 0:06:13.640 Up, Yeah, okay. So I still like six and a half. 0:06:13.640 --> 0:06:15.520 I mean, I would prefer it at seven, But six 0:06:15.560 --> 0:06:18.119 and a half for the Cardinals is my first play 0:06:18.400 --> 0:06:19.760 on that. Do you want to go through all four? 0:06:19.880 --> 0:06:21.600 All fa let's talk about it. Let's talk about that 0:06:21.640 --> 0:06:25.960 one for me very briefly, because I lean Cardinals, but 0:06:26.080 --> 0:06:28.440 I don't feel strongly about it. That was the one 0:06:28.440 --> 0:06:30.520 that you sent over. I was like, ooh, interesting, I'm 0:06:30.560 --> 0:06:33.640 not exactly Now it's worth noting that there is some 0:06:33.680 --> 0:06:36.680 concern over whether or not this game is at least 0:06:36.680 --> 0:06:38.839 going to be played in San Francisco right because of 0:06:38.839 --> 0:06:41.440 the air quality. I think if it gets past some 0:06:41.560 --> 0:06:44.560 certain number which it is bumping up against, they cannot play. 0:06:44.800 --> 0:06:46.520 I don't know if they would move it to a 0:06:46.560 --> 0:06:48.599 neutral stadium, or whether or not they could move that 0:06:48.760 --> 0:06:51.120 to Arizona even like who knows what they're gonna do, 0:06:51.400 --> 0:06:53.919 So there is some uncertainty. I guess part of what 0:06:54.000 --> 0:06:56.039 worries me a little bit is just the continuity with 0:06:56.120 --> 0:06:58.840 San Francisco, where there's a lot of that, and that 0:06:59.040 --> 0:07:01.040 is a huge thing right now coming in now there's 0:07:01.080 --> 0:07:04.600 continuity with Arizona. But obviously you've added DeAndre Hopkins, so 0:07:04.880 --> 0:07:06.840 I lean Arizona. But I want to put that one 0:07:06.839 --> 0:07:08.640 to the side for DK because I think I'm going 0:07:08.680 --> 0:07:10.120 to be more on top of your other pick. So 0:07:10.120 --> 0:07:11.040 who's your next pick? 0:07:11.360 --> 0:07:13.960 Next pick is the Falcons at home against the Saints. 0:07:14.200 --> 0:07:19.440 I am a big contrarian. Better sorry, sorry, I'm a 0:07:19.480 --> 0:07:22.880 big contrarian better and eighty nine percent of the bets 0:07:22.880 --> 0:07:24.880 and the money are coming in here on Seattle minus 0:07:24.960 --> 0:07:28.480 thre two Falcons with Matt Ryan a healthy Julio Jones. 0:07:28.480 --> 0:07:30.800 They've made some changes in the offseason. They looked up 0:07:30.840 --> 0:07:33.600 their defense. They'll have fans in the stands. We don't know. 0:07:33.760 --> 0:07:35.680 I think it's like fifteen thousand fans are going to 0:07:35.760 --> 0:07:37.440 be there, so much like what we saw last night 0:07:37.480 --> 0:07:40.360 with the fans for Kansas City, I think they're going 0:07:40.440 --> 0:07:43.280 to create at least some type of buzz inside of 0:07:43.280 --> 0:07:45.680 that stadium with the dome and whatnot. On a fast 0:07:45.800 --> 0:07:49.200 track Seattle with some questions, some injuries. I know what, 0:07:49.360 --> 0:07:53.160 Russell Wilson, I understand that, but I give you two points. 0:07:53.200 --> 0:07:55.240 Give me a home dog in week one with a 0:07:55.280 --> 0:07:56.680 cross country flight for Seattle. 0:07:57.080 --> 0:08:01.280 Yeah, this is another one where I I would lean 0:08:01.720 --> 0:08:05.720 Atlanta just because it's such a public play right now 0:08:05.760 --> 0:08:08.000 to beyond Seattle. Because other than that, I agree. I mean, 0:08:08.000 --> 0:08:10.840 I think Atlanta is their offense in particular, is going 0:08:10.880 --> 0:08:13.040 to be good. They haven't yet had the rash of 0:08:13.080 --> 0:08:16.679 defensive injuries that they seem to have every year, but man, 0:08:16.800 --> 0:08:19.360 it is just so incredibly difficult for me to bet 0:08:19.360 --> 0:08:22.240 against Russell Wilson in what amounts to a pick them right. 0:08:22.280 --> 0:08:25.200 I mean, that's basically what it is, because he just 0:08:25.680 --> 0:08:28.600 makes them better than they are. He always does, and 0:08:28.640 --> 0:08:30.920 I think that you know, it's not a terrible matchup. 0:08:30.920 --> 0:08:33.080 So that one again, putting that one to the side. 0:08:33.080 --> 0:08:34.480 Those are you two? Go to your next one. 0:08:35.000 --> 0:08:39.040 My favorite play of the entire weekend is the Saints 0:08:39.120 --> 0:08:41.400 minus three miles three and a half. I don't really 0:08:41.559 --> 0:08:43.679 mind either one three and a half. Clearly it is 0:08:43.720 --> 0:08:44.960 a difficult number because. 0:08:44.840 --> 0:08:45.520 Is it three and a half? 0:08:45.559 --> 0:08:48.079 By the way in the circa, it's three and a 0:08:48.080 --> 0:08:49.040 half in the circle, I believe. 0:08:49.080 --> 0:08:51.160 Okay, yeah, it's the same. It's the same with DraftKings. 0:08:51.280 --> 0:08:54.280 So here's my theory on this. You're talking about the 0:08:54.280 --> 0:08:56.920 best team in the football in the Saints, the best continuity. 0:08:57.240 --> 0:09:00.679 You're talking about a defense for this team. Look, I 0:09:00.760 --> 0:09:04.480 understand that you could hang all last year on James 0:09:04.480 --> 0:09:06.400 Winston if you want, but I'm not gonna do that. 0:09:06.440 --> 0:09:09.560 I'm not hanging the entire season on Winston's turnovers and picks. 0:09:09.760 --> 0:09:12.400 They had issues last year. This is the Saints. I 0:09:12.440 --> 0:09:14.680 know there's a contract question with Kamara. But this is 0:09:14.720 --> 0:09:17.079 the same thing I thought last night with the Chiefs, 0:09:17.080 --> 0:09:19.440 Like everyone's looking for a reason to bet the dog 0:09:19.720 --> 0:09:22.080 and they can talk themselves into it and then they 0:09:22.080 --> 0:09:24.960 get their doors blown off. Saints are gonna win this 0:09:25.000 --> 0:09:27.200 game by at least seven points in my mind, Saints 0:09:27.200 --> 0:09:29.160 mins three and a half. I got no problem laying that. 0:09:29.559 --> 0:09:33.760 Ah, yeah, I'm with you. This is one like sorry, 0:09:33.800 --> 0:09:35.880 I don't know if you want something profound. Also, by 0:09:35.880 --> 0:09:37.000 the way, I don't know if you just saw they 0:09:37.040 --> 0:09:40.160 just announced Mike Evans doubtful. Yes, huge, so that that 0:09:40.320 --> 0:09:43.720 is certainly big. This also strikes me as a pretty 0:09:43.720 --> 0:09:47.000 public play on the Bucks, right, Yeah, I'm. 0:09:46.920 --> 0:09:48.719 Huge on the Bucks, huge other Bucks. But I think 0:09:48.720 --> 0:09:50.400 it's gonna be a good two way on this. But 0:09:50.440 --> 0:09:53.640 I think I do think that the initial public play 0:09:54.240 --> 0:09:58.280 is Tom Brady Gronk. You know that this is you know, 0:09:58.440 --> 0:10:01.520 Shack Barrett. I mean, I think that's that's the public 0:10:01.640 --> 0:10:04.560 side immediately, because everybody wants to see Tom Brady do well. 0:10:05.160 --> 0:10:07.720 Yeah, no, I agree, I think you know, the Saints are. 0:10:08.200 --> 0:10:09.960 I think this is the Saints here, man. I think 0:10:10.000 --> 0:10:12.079 they're gonna win the Super Bowl. I think it breeze, 0:10:12.280 --> 0:10:14.840 last last Hurrah. So I you know we have talked 0:10:14.840 --> 0:10:16.760 a little bit about that, So okay, I'm not gonna 0:10:16.760 --> 0:10:18.440 write that in with Penn. I'm gonna write that in 0:10:18.480 --> 0:10:19.959 with Fence. Look, because I do like it. That is 0:10:20.000 --> 0:10:21.680 a good pick. So probably we're going with the both. 0:10:21.760 --> 0:10:23.000 Which is your fourth pick. 0:10:22.840 --> 0:10:25.840 Here, Titans Monday Night minus two and a half on 0:10:25.960 --> 0:10:29.040 the road at the Denver Broncos Court and Sutton goes 0:10:29.080 --> 0:10:29.800 down with an injury. 0:10:29.880 --> 0:10:31.880 Courtland's also doubtful. 0:10:31.920 --> 0:10:34.839 He's not. I don't think you'll play personally. I do 0:10:34.880 --> 0:10:37.280 not like Drew Locke. I know they're going to rebuild 0:10:37.320 --> 0:10:39.160 around him and they think he's the guy. I could 0:10:39.200 --> 0:10:41.199 be wrong about that, but I am a Monster fan 0:10:41.280 --> 0:10:42.800 like you, and I agree on the Titans. I have 0:10:42.840 --> 0:10:44.760 the Titans. They're my pick to win the AFC. I'm 0:10:44.760 --> 0:10:48.280 going massive contrarian here, not the Ravens, not the Chiefs. 0:10:48.280 --> 0:10:51.320 I'm going Titans to the Super Bowl here against the Saints, 0:10:51.320 --> 0:10:53.679 with the Saints winning it. I just think this is 0:10:53.720 --> 0:10:56.120 going to be a tough situation. Without von Miller, I 0:10:56.120 --> 0:10:58.120 thought the line would have moved more than it did. 0:10:58.320 --> 0:11:00.840 It flip flopped initially when it first came out, it 0:11:01.000 --> 0:11:04.360 was minus three for the Denver Broncos. Then Miller was out, 0:11:04.400 --> 0:11:06.080 and then it flipped to minus two and a half. 0:11:06.160 --> 0:11:08.400 But the fact that we don't delay three points, it's 0:11:08.400 --> 0:11:11.280 two and a half all over, the Titans minus two 0:11:11.280 --> 0:11:11.520 and a half. 0:11:11.600 --> 0:11:14.680 Yeah, so I like this one too, and for basically 0:11:14.760 --> 0:11:16.880 all the reasons you said again, teams with a ton 0:11:16.920 --> 0:11:19.920 of continuity coming into the season, Like, that's really what 0:11:19.960 --> 0:11:22.200 I like early in the season. That really makes me excited. 0:11:22.240 --> 0:11:25.840 That's what you've got, certainly with the Titans. There are 0:11:25.880 --> 0:11:27.840 two things I want to say. One is just to 0:11:27.880 --> 0:11:29.680 be clear. You know, we offer the consensus lines over 0:11:29.679 --> 0:11:32.199 our bettingpros dot com. We're talking about our contest lines, 0:11:32.440 --> 0:11:34.959 the consensus lines. There is a minus two out there 0:11:35.000 --> 0:11:37.080 to the extent that matters to you at bet MGM. 0:11:37.160 --> 0:11:39.680 Everybody else is minus two and a half. The one 0:11:39.720 --> 0:11:42.719 thing that worries me mad about this is the Broncos, 0:11:43.200 --> 0:11:46.920 however they are on the season, are always really really 0:11:46.920 --> 0:11:50.120 good at home early in the season. Early in the 0:11:50.160 --> 0:11:53.200 season is when they are nearly like I mean, not 0:11:53.280 --> 0:11:55.959 last year, but you know, nearly unbeatable at home. Makes 0:11:56.000 --> 0:11:59.240 me a little concerned. About it. However, with that said, 0:11:59.520 --> 0:12:01.120 I'm telling with you on this one. This when I'm 0:12:01.120 --> 0:12:03.080 would lock in in Pen, I just want to give 0:12:03.080 --> 0:12:05.520 both sides of it because I do think again, give 0:12:05.559 --> 0:12:08.040 me continuity on these first games teams that you know 0:12:08.440 --> 0:12:11.559 aren't making any big changes, and the Titans are like identical, 0:12:11.600 --> 0:12:14.199 so they're totally good to go at this point. And again, 0:12:14.280 --> 0:12:17.280 I just think that the Broncos, while the offense might 0:12:17.320 --> 0:12:19.560 be good eventually, I'm not a huge Drew lockman, It's 0:12:19.600 --> 0:12:21.679 going to take time for them to get there. So 0:12:21.920 --> 0:12:24.440 for me, totally with you locking in it in Pen. 0:12:24.840 --> 0:12:26.520 Titans minus two and a half in the road. Okay, 0:12:26.520 --> 0:12:28.800 that's four. But you mentioned a different game to me 0:12:28.840 --> 0:12:30.640 that I thought you would have liked because it's one 0:12:30.640 --> 0:12:32.559 of my favorites. And this is from a Jets fan, 0:12:32.880 --> 0:12:35.240 and that's the Bills laying six and a half to 0:12:35.280 --> 0:12:37.440 the Jets. Are you off that? I know you do 0:12:37.520 --> 0:12:40.000 not love the Bills. You have been just pounding that 0:12:40.480 --> 0:12:43.200 for two years. So are you off that now or is. 0:12:43.200 --> 0:12:47.079 That off of it? A not off? But these Division 0:12:47.280 --> 0:12:52.080 games in Week one, there is a line a trend, 0:12:52.160 --> 0:12:55.040 which doesn't mean anything, but there is a trend that 0:12:55.080 --> 0:12:59.280 about divisional dogs in Week one have covered it a 0:12:59.280 --> 0:13:01.760 pretty good right, So the six and a half has 0:13:01.800 --> 0:13:05.440 given me a little pause on the Bills. But so 0:13:05.960 --> 0:13:08.760 the games I'm debating right now are the Bills minus 0:13:08.800 --> 0:13:11.360 six and a half the Rams plus three? 0:13:12.000 --> 0:13:12.280 Yep? 0:13:12.600 --> 0:13:15.760 And in the Draft Kings contest, the Bengals are plus 0:13:15.800 --> 0:13:16.920 three and a half? Are they not? 0:13:17.559 --> 0:13:20.040 Yes, they are, okay, But by the way, the Rams 0:13:20.080 --> 0:13:23.240 are only two and a half the three. 0:13:24.040 --> 0:13:25.720 Yeah, that's that. That would that would get me off 0:13:25.720 --> 0:13:29.200 of it in the Draft Kings contest. But talk me 0:13:29.240 --> 0:13:31.599 through this. Why are the Bengals only three and a 0:13:31.640 --> 0:13:34.720 half point underdogs? I mean, why aren't there a bigger 0:13:34.800 --> 0:13:37.599 underdog there? What? What am I not seeing there in 0:13:38.000 --> 0:13:41.040 that game? Where? I mean, this is Joe Burrow, this 0:13:41.120 --> 0:13:43.520 is his first start, and this is the this is 0:13:43.559 --> 0:13:46.439 the Chargers. Now okay, this is the Chargers with that defense, 0:13:46.760 --> 0:13:48.600 and I know they Derwin James got hurt. 0:13:48.600 --> 0:13:51.520 I get that, and it's a big loss, Irwin James, 0:13:51.600 --> 0:13:51.840 it is. 0:13:51.840 --> 0:13:55.079 But I what am I missing here? Why aren't the 0:13:55.120 --> 0:13:56.319 Chargers a bigger favorite? 0:13:56.520 --> 0:14:01.800 Okay? The first thing is to be clear the consensus line. Actually, Now, 0:14:01.880 --> 0:14:04.240 Matt and every book I'm looking at. So it's not like, oh, 0:14:04.280 --> 0:14:07.120 this is a it's at three now, it's at three now, 0:14:07.360 --> 0:14:10.480 Pouncy is out. Pouncy has been declared out there, so 0:14:10.880 --> 0:14:14.000 that that can make a difference. I don't know. I 0:14:15.120 --> 0:14:18.080 really don't know. Look, we like this Chargers team. We 0:14:18.120 --> 0:14:20.160 talked about it. Like the big joke you and I 0:14:20.240 --> 0:14:22.920 kept making is like, man, they always get injured, but 0:14:23.120 --> 0:14:25.840 while they're healthy, they're going to be really good. Their 0:14:25.840 --> 0:14:28.400 offense is going to work well with Tarad Taylor there. 0:14:28.440 --> 0:14:30.760 Mike Williams also maybe out, you know for this game. 0:14:30.800 --> 0:14:34.280 He's questionable coming in. But it's really tough to see 0:14:34.320 --> 0:14:38.520 a rookie quarterback without any preseason games. You've got Aj 0:14:38.640 --> 0:14:42.920 Green who maybe limited a little bit in necessarily. I 0:14:42.920 --> 0:14:44.160 don't know. I don't know. 0:14:44.360 --> 0:14:47.320 I sometimes I take flyer plays. I mean sometimes for me, 0:14:48.000 --> 0:14:51.120 I just don't I don't question the books, and I 0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:53.240 just say there's a reason why the Bengals are plus three, 0:14:53.280 --> 0:14:55.760 and just bet the Bengals, Okay, just just say there 0:14:55.800 --> 0:14:57.600 is something that I don't know that I'm not smart 0:14:57.680 --> 0:14:59.640 enough to know about. And they're expecting the public to 0:14:59.640 --> 0:15:02.720 come in and hammer Chargers and then it turns out, 0:15:02.760 --> 0:15:04.960 because it's the NFL, these are the sharpest lines that 0:15:05.000 --> 0:15:08.240 there are and they see something here. 0:15:08.600 --> 0:15:10.360 I know. It makes me a little nervous too, you know. 0:15:10.400 --> 0:15:12.200 I love to do the game of trying to predict 0:15:12.240 --> 0:15:14.600 the lines. I wouldn't have been at three or three 0:15:14.640 --> 0:15:18.440 and a half six, right, especially right they had They 0:15:18.440 --> 0:15:21.720 are having fans, I think, but a very limited number 0:15:21.840 --> 0:15:24.080 in Cincinnati. I believe that's where they came out of there. 0:15:24.120 --> 0:15:27.000 So it's not even really like a home field advantage. 0:15:27.040 --> 0:15:31.200 And again, rookie quarterback, you know, starting, I mean, maybe 0:15:31.200 --> 0:15:33.600 that benefits them, maybe because like it's like, well, it's 0:15:33.640 --> 0:15:35.440 gonna be like a scrimmage for him, so it won't 0:15:35.480 --> 0:15:38.480 be the same thing. But again, continuity, this is this 0:15:38.520 --> 0:15:40.280 is where you want to go. And again the Chargers 0:15:40.320 --> 0:15:42.200 have new quarterbacks, so I'm not you know, but it's 0:15:42.240 --> 0:15:45.680 still gonna kind of I don't know, man, I certainly 0:15:45.760 --> 0:15:48.160 I'm okay. Now again it DraftKings, it's three and a half. 0:15:48.200 --> 0:15:50.040 And for the circus three and a half, right, you. 0:15:50.000 --> 0:15:52.840 Said it's three a't circa it's three. 0:15:52.640 --> 0:15:54.760 At circa Okay, see it's it's three and a half. 0:15:54.840 --> 0:15:55.120 I don't know. 0:15:55.120 --> 0:15:57.520 If that it does matter to me. I mean, I 0:15:57.520 --> 0:15:59.120 mean three and a half. That hook is big, but 0:15:59.200 --> 0:16:01.360 again it is I still would take three. I mean 0:16:01.400 --> 0:16:04.400 I just again, there's something that I feel like the 0:16:04.400 --> 0:16:07.560 bookmakers see that I don't. And I often say that 0:16:07.600 --> 0:16:11.560 they build casinos for a reason, so I sometimes we'll 0:16:11.600 --> 0:16:14.320 side with them on these types of situations just because 0:16:14.360 --> 0:16:17.520 I hate, and I mean capitol h hate Zach Taylor. 0:16:17.800 --> 0:16:21.040 I do not like their head coach at all. Again, 0:16:21.080 --> 0:16:23.200 I've told I covered him in college. I don't think 0:16:23.200 --> 0:16:25.000 this dude's ready to be a head coach in the NFL. 0:16:25.280 --> 0:16:27.120 And then he's got a rookie quarterback on top of that, 0:16:27.320 --> 0:16:31.000 so it's like loss loss, So why isn't this I mean, 0:16:31.040 --> 0:16:33.240 Anthony Lynn. Most people I've seen, like four people take 0:16:33.240 --> 0:16:35.160 Anthony Lynn as coach of the year coming up because 0:16:35.160 --> 0:16:36.720 of all the injuries and they expect a big year 0:16:36.800 --> 0:16:39.520 of the Chargers. Okay, if that's the case, they better 0:16:39.680 --> 0:16:42.760 pound this team. It's the Bengals, you know. 0:16:43.000 --> 0:16:44.560 Do you know what I remember by the way back? 0:16:44.560 --> 0:16:46.680 Because it's funny because when you said, there's like you 0:16:46.720 --> 0:16:48.600 look at a line and you're like, why is this 0:16:48.720 --> 0:16:51.880 line this way? That this can't be correct. There's always 0:16:51.880 --> 0:16:53.800 a reason. And I was trying to remember what game 0:16:53.800 --> 0:16:56.360 it was. It was involving the Chargers. I don't remember 0:16:56.400 --> 0:16:59.200 the line, but it was the Packers going to the 0:16:59.320 --> 0:17:01.520 Chargers and playing them, and the line was. 0:17:01.480 --> 0:17:03.600 Oh yeahiculous last year, yep, last. 0:17:03.520 --> 0:17:05.840 Right, and you were everybody was like, what what is this? 0:17:05.960 --> 0:17:09.280 What the Packers are going to destroy the Chargers And 0:17:09.359 --> 0:17:12.080 it was some really really small line and I remember thinking, 0:17:12.200 --> 0:17:15.720 right was Righters on the road minus three, right, and 0:17:15.760 --> 0:17:18.040 the Chargers won twenty six to eleven. Like it was 0:17:18.080 --> 0:17:19.880 just one of these things where it was like, what 0:17:20.000 --> 0:17:22.800 is happening at this point when lines like I will 0:17:22.880 --> 0:17:25.040