Speaker 1: Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the
Speaker 1: Betting Pros NFL podcast. I am your host, Dan Harris.
Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris. Adie
Speaker 1: with me is Matt Perrault, host of the Daily Juice podcast.
Speaker 1: You can find him on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt.
Speaker 2: Matt.
Speaker 1: What's up?
Speaker 2: Hi, NFL football? It's here. I can't believe it's here,
Speaker 2: but it's here.
Speaker 1: I said it on our Fantasy Pros Football podcast this morning.
Speaker 1: My wife told me that I just let out a
Speaker 1: big giggle, like I turned on the TV and I
Speaker 1: just giggled, and I was like, Okay, that's fine. It
Speaker 1: was amazing, And I don't know about you, It didn't
Speaker 1: feel that weird last night. Like I didn't really notice
Speaker 1: that there weren't that many people in the stands and
Speaker 1: stuff like that felt normal.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think what I equated it to was like
Speaker 2: a blowout game in the fourth quarter. We're like, we've
Speaker 2: seen games where guys are playing and there's nobody there,
Speaker 2: or there's like eighteen thousand there, and you know, chief
Speaker 2: fans did their best to be heard and yelled and
Speaker 2: yelling and screaming. So yeah, I mean, I've said this
Speaker 2: since the the you know, sports pandemic has started. When
Speaker 2: it comes to the UFC events on TV, I don't
Speaker 2: notice fans not being there. You know, occasionally I will.
Speaker 2: In basketball, it looks like a two K game to me,
Speaker 2: so it's like, you know, it looks normal to me
Speaker 2: watching it on TV. I think if I was there,
Speaker 2: I might say it's different. But from a television viewership perspective, well,
Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, look, it's sports on TV. Man,
Speaker 2: I'm good.
Speaker 1: Other than Andy Reid's you know, welding mask that he
Speaker 1: basically was wearing the entire time, you would't have noticed
Speaker 1: the difference. I also felt really good about cashing in
Speaker 1: on my Chiefs plus one hundred and one points bet
Speaker 1: that we got on that special offer from draftings, which
Speaker 1: is why you want to listen to us and listen
Speaker 1: to maths podcasts The Daily Juice, which is one of
Speaker 1: my favorite listens fifteen minute podcasts first thing in the
Speaker 1: morning every day. Got a ton of offers when they
Speaker 1: come out, so that was one of them. The Chiefs
Speaker 1: plus one hundred and one points not a joke at
Speaker 1: minus one ten.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I talked to Johnny Avello from DraftKings on my
Speaker 2: radio show, and he told me that they did ten
Speaker 2: million dollars. Yeah, that was their handle for that game,
Speaker 2: which is playoff game esque for DraftKings. It was their
Speaker 2: biggest NFL game. But he's young, he's been around for
Speaker 2: a long time, so but ten million is a pretty
Speaker 2: good handle for one game for DraftKings.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you bet. Okay. So this is a little later
Speaker 1: in the week and we're going to be doing it.
Speaker 1: We're usually going to record on Wednesday, which is what
Speaker 1: we had planned to do. It was my fault. We
Speaker 1: had a crazy schedule. Matt is fitting this in in
Speaker 1: between moving, which he is doing the second. We are
Speaker 1: done with this, So let me break down here what
Speaker 1: we're gonna do a little bit on the weekly show.
Speaker 1: We've got something kind of cool. Matt and I are
Speaker 1: doing a picks contest together over at DraftKings. The DraftKings
Speaker 1: Pick Them Championship first prize, a million dollars guaranteed. You
Speaker 1: have to make five picks every week except for two.
Speaker 1: You get to take two weeks off from weeks one
Speaker 1: through sixteen. It's a little weird. So there's gonna be
Speaker 1: some game theory on there. Separately, Matt is doing a
Speaker 1: separate big money picks contest. So we're we're gonna be
Speaker 1: breaking down our choices from us as a team, and
Speaker 1: Matt is also we're not going to necessarily agree. I'm
Speaker 1: not necessarily going to agree with what Matt is doing.
Speaker 1: Maybe I will, we'll see. But Matt, tell everybody about
Speaker 1: your contest that you're in. I will tell everybody a
Speaker 1: little bit about DraftKings and then we will get to it.
Speaker 2: Sure. So I'm in the Circa Million and that is
Speaker 2: a three million dollar guarantee which has seen a ton
Speaker 2: of publicity and a lot of attention here in Vegas
Speaker 2: because of that overlay the three million dollars being guaranteed
Speaker 2: first place prize a million every four weeks with the
Speaker 2: quarter poll awards, it comes out with one hundred and
Speaker 2: fifty thousand dollars for first place in the award, second
Speaker 2: and third place as well. So this is five games
Speaker 2: against the spread. The difference between the Circa and the
Speaker 2: DraftKings contest. DraftKings does not make you enter all five
Speaker 2: of the picks in if you want to play Thursday DraftKings.
Speaker 2: Circa does so. If I want to play the THURSDA
Speaker 2: Night game like last night, which I didn't play in
Speaker 2: the Circa. We bet it for the Daily Juice, but
Speaker 2: not with the Circa. You had to put in all
Speaker 2: the picks for Sunday, and you just can't do that
Speaker 2: given the uncertainty today in sports and with COVID nineteen
Speaker 2: injuries and whatnot. I mean, look at the injuries that
Speaker 2: popped up today for games. It's a bad move. It's
Speaker 2: a losing move to play Thursdays in the Circa. But
Speaker 2: for DraftKings they let you put one in and then
Speaker 2: four on Sundays. So circa rules are a bit more
Speaker 2: restrictive than what we're seeing with the DK rules.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you can also get them in on Sunday morning.
Speaker 1: I think Circa locks on Saturday, Matt correct.
Speaker 2: Right, three pm Pacific time on Saturday, right.
Speaker 1: So you get a little extra and you don't have
Speaker 1: to put them in the DraftKings contest all at once.
Speaker 1: If you don't want it, you can submit them sort
Speaker 1: of as you go. And again it's a little weird
Speaker 1: because it's only fourteen of sixteen weeks. You get to
Speaker 1: take two weeks off, so you can be looking at
Speaker 1: a tough one makes for a lot of game theory.
Speaker 1: Matt's going to go all through the seventeen weeks of
Speaker 1: the NFL season, So that's what we're going to be doing.
Speaker 1: So Matt, why don't we start like this? And there
Speaker 1: may be, by the way, different odds because I don't
Speaker 1: know what the Circa odds are versus the DraftKings.
Speaker 2: Oh they're different, Yeah, they are different.
Speaker 1: Okay, good, So why don't we get started here at
Speaker 1: your Circa Sports pick?
Speaker 2: Matt.
Speaker 1: By the way, Mat, I legitimately like he sent a
Speaker 1: couple of games that he's feeling. I agree with two
Speaker 1: of them. I want not sure about the third necessarily,
Speaker 1: but we're legitimately going to be working at our picks
Speaker 1: on this podcast. So welcome to a little you know,
Speaker 1: behind the scenes. It's gonna be a lot of fun. So, Matt,
Speaker 1: but you feel confident on you said at least four
Speaker 1: of your five picks over at the circle, right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So okay, we can start with the Cardinals here
Speaker 2: catching six and a half on the road at the
Speaker 2: forty nine ers, and I think there's a good shot
Speaker 2: that the Cardinals win this game outright, And I'm really
Speaker 2: high on this team. I'm high on Murray I'm high
Speaker 2: on the offense. The defense for the forty nine ers
Speaker 2: not nearly as good. I do believe there's a hangover
Speaker 2: from a Super Bowl perspective, but catching six and a
Speaker 2: half given the way the Cardinals played the last two
Speaker 2: games of last year against the forty nine Ers, played
Speaker 2: in pretty tight They covered once, they didn't cover in
Speaker 2: the second game. But this is a Cardinals team that
Speaker 2: I think has a ton of offensive firepower and I look,
Speaker 2: Garoppolo is a fun quarterback, and they're going to run
Speaker 2: the ball like they always do. But I think this
Speaker 2: is a Cardinals team that's going to be explosive and
Speaker 2: really dangerous on a week to week basis. So six
Speaker 2: and a half is the number of the circa. I
Speaker 2: believe DraftKings is seven right for that game?
Speaker 1: No, I think DraftKings is six and a half when
Speaker 1: they finally okay, yeah put it.
Speaker 2: Up, Yeah, okay. So I still like six and a half.
Speaker 2: I mean, I would prefer it at seven, But six
Speaker 2: and a half for the Cardinals is my first play
Speaker 2: on that. Do you want to go through all four?
Speaker 1: All fa let's talk about it. Let's talk about that
Speaker 1: one for me very briefly, because I lean Cardinals, but
Speaker 1: I don't feel strongly about it. That was the one
Speaker 1: that you sent over. I was like, ooh, interesting, I'm
Speaker 1: not exactly Now it's worth noting that there is some
Speaker 1: concern over whether or not this game is at least
Speaker 1: going to be played in San Francisco right because of
Speaker 1: the air quality. I think if it gets past some
Speaker 1: certain number which it is bumping up against, they cannot play.
Speaker 1: I don't know if they would move it to a
Speaker 1: neutral stadium, or whether or not they could move that
Speaker 1: to Arizona even like who knows what they're gonna do,
Speaker 1: So there is some uncertainty. I guess part of what
Speaker 1: worries me a little bit is just the continuity with
Speaker 1: San Francisco, where there's a lot of that, and that
Speaker 1: is a huge thing right now coming in now there's
Speaker 1: continuity with Arizona. But obviously you've added DeAndre Hopkins, so
Speaker 1: I lean Arizona. But I want to put that one
Speaker 1: to the side for DK because I think I'm going
Speaker 1: to be more on top of your other pick. So
Speaker 1: who's your next pick?
Speaker 2: Next pick is the Falcons at home against the Saints.
Speaker 2: I am a big contrarian. Better sorry, sorry, I'm a
Speaker 2: big contrarian better and eighty nine percent of the bets
Speaker 2: and the money are coming in here on Seattle minus
Speaker 2: thre two Falcons with Matt Ryan a healthy Julio Jones.
Speaker 2: They've made some changes in the offseason. They looked up
Speaker 2: their defense. They'll have fans in the stands. We don't know.
Speaker 2: I think it's like fifteen thousand fans are going to
Speaker 2: be there, so much like what we saw last night
Speaker 2: with the fans for Kansas City, I think they're going
Speaker 2: to create at least some type of buzz inside of
Speaker 2: that stadium with the dome and whatnot. On a fast
Speaker 2: track Seattle with some questions, some injuries. I know what,
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson, I understand that, but I give you two points.
Speaker 2: Give me a home dog in week one with a
Speaker 2: cross country flight for Seattle.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is another one where I I would lean
Speaker 1: Atlanta just because it's such a public play right now
Speaker 1: to beyond Seattle. Because other than that, I agree. I mean,
Speaker 1: I think Atlanta is their offense in particular, is going
Speaker 1: to be good. They haven't yet had the rash of
Speaker 1: defensive injuries that they seem to have every year, but man,
Speaker 1: it is just so incredibly difficult for me to bet
Speaker 1: against Russell Wilson in what amounts to a pick them right.
Speaker 1: I mean, that's basically what it is, because he just
Speaker 1: makes them better than they are. He always does, and
Speaker 1: I think that you know, it's not a terrible matchup.
Speaker 1: So that one again, putting that one to the side.
Speaker 1: Those are you two? Go to your next one.
Speaker 2: My favorite play of the entire weekend is the Saints
Speaker 2: minus three miles three and a half. I don't really
Speaker 2: mind either one three and a half. Clearly it is
Speaker 2: a difficult number because.
Speaker 1: Is it three and a half?
Speaker 2: By the way in the circa, it's three and a
Speaker 2: half in the circle, I believe.
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, it's the same. It's the same with DraftKings.
Speaker 2: So here's my theory on this. You're talking about the
Speaker 2: best team in the football in the Saints, the best continuity.
Speaker 2: You're talking about a defense for this team. Look, I
Speaker 2: understand that you could hang all last year on James
Speaker 2: Winston if you want, but I'm not gonna do that.
Speaker 2: I'm not hanging the entire season on Winston's turnovers and picks.
Speaker 2: They had issues last year. This is the Saints. I
Speaker 2: know there's a contract question with Kamara. But this is
Speaker 2: the same thing I thought last night with the Chiefs,
Speaker 2: Like everyone's looking for a reason to bet the dog
Speaker 2: and they can talk themselves into it and then they
Speaker 2: get their doors blown off. Saints are gonna win this
Speaker 2: game by at least seven points in my mind, Saints
Speaker 2: mins three and a half. I got no problem laying that.
Speaker 1: Ah, yeah, I'm with you. This is one like sorry,
Speaker 1: I don't know if you want something profound. Also, by
Speaker 1: the way, I don't know if you just saw they
Speaker 1: just announced Mike Evans doubtful. Yes, huge, so that that
Speaker 1: is certainly big. This also strikes me as a pretty
Speaker 1: public play on the Bucks, right, Yeah, I'm.
Speaker 2: Huge on the Bucks, huge other Bucks. But I think
Speaker 2: it's gonna be a good two way on this. But
Speaker 2: I think I do think that the initial public play
Speaker 2: is Tom Brady Gronk. You know that this is you know,
Speaker 2: Shack Barrett. I mean, I think that's that's the public
Speaker 2: side immediately, because everybody wants to see Tom Brady do well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I agree, I think you know, the Saints are.
Speaker 1: I think this is the Saints here, man. I think
Speaker 1: they're gonna win the Super Bowl. I think it breeze,
Speaker 1: last last Hurrah. So I you know we have talked
Speaker 1: a little bit about that, So okay, I'm not gonna
Speaker 1: write that in with Penn. I'm gonna write that in
Speaker 1: with Fence. Look, because I do like it. That is
Speaker 1: a good pick. So probably we're going with the both.
Speaker 1: Which is your fourth pick.
Speaker 2: Here, Titans Monday Night minus two and a half on
Speaker 2: the road at the Denver Broncos Court and Sutton goes
Speaker 2: down with an injury.
Speaker 1: Courtland's also doubtful.
Speaker 2: He's not. I don't think you'll play personally. I do
Speaker 2: not like Drew Locke. I know they're going to rebuild
Speaker 2: around him and they think he's the guy. I could
Speaker 2: be wrong about that, but I am a Monster fan
Speaker 2: like you, and I agree on the Titans. I have
Speaker 2: the Titans. They're my pick to win the AFC. I'm
Speaker 2: going massive contrarian here, not the Ravens, not the Chiefs.
Speaker 2: I'm going Titans to the Super Bowl here against the Saints,
Speaker 2: with the Saints winning it. I just think this is
Speaker 2: going to be a tough situation. Without von Miller, I
Speaker 2: thought the line would have moved more than it did.
Speaker 2: It flip flopped initially when it first came out, it
Speaker 2: was minus three for the Denver Broncos. Then Miller was out,
Speaker 2: and then it flipped to minus two and a half.
Speaker 2: But the fact that we don't delay three points, it's
Speaker 2: two and a half all over, the Titans minus two
Speaker 2: and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I like this one too, and for basically
Speaker 1: all the reasons you said again, teams with a ton
Speaker 1: of continuity coming into the season, Like, that's really what
Speaker 1: I like early in the season. That really makes me excited.
Speaker 1: That's what you've got, certainly with the Titans. There are
Speaker 1: two things I want to say. One is just to
Speaker 1: be clear. You know, we offer the consensus lines over
Speaker 1: our bettingpros dot com. We're talking about our contest lines,
Speaker 1: the consensus lines. There is a minus two out there
Speaker 1: to the extent that matters to you at bet MGM.
Speaker 1: Everybody else is minus two and a half. The one
Speaker 1: thing that worries me mad about this is the Broncos,
Speaker 1: however they are on the season, are always really really
Speaker 1: good at home early in the season. Early in the
Speaker 1: season is when they are nearly like I mean, not
Speaker 1: last year, but you know, nearly unbeatable at home. Makes
Speaker 1: me a little concerned. About it. However, with that said,
Speaker 1: I'm telling with you on this one. This when I'm
Speaker 1: would lock in in Pen, I just want to give
Speaker 1: both sides of it because I do think again, give
Speaker 1: me continuity on these first games teams that you know
Speaker 1: aren't making any big changes, and the Titans are like identical,
Speaker 1: so they're totally good to go at this point. And again,
Speaker 1: I just think that the Broncos, while the offense might
Speaker 1: be good eventually, I'm not a huge Drew lockman, It's
Speaker 1: going to take time for them to get there. So
Speaker 1: for me, totally with you locking in it in Pen.
Speaker 1: Titans minus two and a half in the road. Okay,
Speaker 1: that's four. But you mentioned a different game to me
Speaker 1: that I thought you would have liked because it's one
Speaker 1: of my favorites. And this is from a Jets fan,
Speaker 1: and that's the Bills laying six and a half to
Speaker 1: the Jets. Are you off that? I know you do
Speaker 1: not love the Bills. You have been just pounding that
Speaker 1: for two years. So are you off that now or is.
Speaker 2: That off of it? A not off? But these Division
Speaker 2: games in Week one, there is a line a trend,
Speaker 2: which doesn't mean anything, but there is a trend that
Speaker 2: about divisional dogs in Week one have covered it a
Speaker 2: pretty good right, So the six and a half has
Speaker 2: given me a little pause on the Bills. But so
Speaker 2: the games I'm debating right now are the Bills minus
Speaker 2: six and a half the Rams plus three?
Speaker 1: Yep?
Speaker 2: And in the Draft Kings contest, the Bengals are plus
Speaker 2: three and a half? Are they not?
Speaker 1: Yes, they are, okay, But by the way, the Rams
Speaker 1: are only two and a half the three.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that. That would that would get me off
Speaker 2: of it in the Draft Kings contest. But talk me
Speaker 2: through this. Why are the Bengals only three and a
Speaker 2: half point underdogs? I mean, why aren't there a bigger
Speaker 2: underdog there? What? What am I not seeing there in
Speaker 2: that game? Where? I mean, this is Joe Burrow, this
Speaker 2: is his first start, and this is the this is
Speaker 2: the Chargers. Now okay, this is the Chargers with that defense,
Speaker 2: and I know they Derwin James got hurt.
Speaker 1: I get that, and it's a big loss, Irwin James,
Speaker 1: it is.
Speaker 2: But I what am I missing here? Why aren't the
Speaker 2: Chargers a bigger favorite?
Speaker 1: Okay? The first thing is to be clear the consensus line. Actually, Now,
Speaker 1: Matt and every book I'm looking at. So it's not like, oh,
Speaker 1: this is a it's at three now, it's at three now,
Speaker 1: Pouncy is out. Pouncy has been declared out there, so
Speaker 1: that that can make a difference. I don't know. I
Speaker 1: really don't know. Look, we like this Chargers team. We
Speaker 1: talked about it. Like the big joke you and I
Speaker 1: kept making is like, man, they always get injured, but
Speaker 1: while they're healthy, they're going to be really good. Their
Speaker 1: offense is going to work well with Tarad Taylor there.
Speaker 1: Mike Williams also maybe out, you know for this game.
Speaker 1: He's questionable coming in. But it's really tough to see
Speaker 1: a rookie quarterback without any preseason games. You've got Aj
Speaker 1: Green who maybe limited a little bit in necessarily. I
Speaker 1: don't know. I don't know.
Speaker 2: I sometimes I take flyer plays. I mean sometimes for me,
Speaker 2: I just don't I don't question the books, and I
Speaker 2: just say there's a reason why the Bengals are plus three,
Speaker 2: and just bet the Bengals, Okay, just just say there
Speaker 2: is something that I don't know that I'm not smart
Speaker 2: enough to know about. And they're expecting the public to
Speaker 2: come in and hammer Chargers and then it turns out,
Speaker 2: because it's the NFL, these are the sharpest lines that
Speaker 2: there are and they see something here.
Speaker 1: I know. It makes me a little nervous too, you know.
Speaker 1: I love to do the game of trying to predict
Speaker 1: the lines. I wouldn't have been at three or three
Speaker 1: and a half six, right, especially right they had They
Speaker 1: are having fans, I think, but a very limited number
Speaker 1: in Cincinnati. I believe that's where they came out of there.
Speaker 1: So it's not even really like a home field advantage.
Speaker 1: And again, rookie quarterback, you know, starting, I mean, maybe
Speaker 1: that benefits them, maybe because like it's like, well, it's
Speaker 1: gonna be like a scrimmage for him, so it won't
Speaker 1: be the same thing. But again, continuity, this is this
Speaker 1: is where you want to go. And again the Chargers
Speaker 1: have new quarterbacks, so I'm not you know, but it's
Speaker 1: still gonna kind of I don't know, man, I certainly
Speaker 1: I'm okay. Now again it DraftKings, it's three and a half.
Speaker 1: And for the circus three and a half, right, you.
Speaker 2: Said it's three a't circa it's three.
Speaker 1: At circa Okay, see it's it's three and a half.
Speaker 1: I don't know.
Speaker 2: If that it does matter to me. I mean, I
Speaker 2: mean three and a half. That hook is big, but
Speaker 2: again it is I still would take three. I mean
Speaker 2: I just again, there's something that I feel like the
Speaker 2: bookmakers see that I don't. And I often say that
Speaker 2: they build casinos for a reason, so I sometimes we'll
Speaker 2: side with them on these types of situations just because
Speaker 2: I hate, and I mean capitol h hate Zach Taylor.
Speaker 2: I do not like their head coach at all. Again,
Speaker 2: I've told I covered him in college. I don't think
Speaker 2: this dude's ready to be a head coach in the NFL.
Speaker 2: And then he's got a rookie quarterback on top of that,
Speaker 2: so it's like loss loss, So why isn't this I mean,
Speaker 2: Anthony Lynn. Most people I've seen, like four people take
Speaker 2: Anthony Lynn as coach of the year coming up because
Speaker 2: of all the injuries and they expect a big year
Speaker 2: of the Chargers. Okay, if that's the case, they better
Speaker 2: pound this team. It's the Bengals, you know.
Speaker 1: Do you know what I remember by the way back?
Speaker 1: Because it's funny because when you said, there's like you
Speaker 1: look at a line and you're like, why is this
Speaker 1: line this way? That this can't be correct. There's always
Speaker 1: a reason. And I was trying to remember what game
Speaker 1: it was. It was involving the Chargers. I don't remember
Speaker 1: the line, but it was the Packers going to the
Speaker 1: Chargers and playing them, and the line was.
Speaker 2: Oh yeahiculous last year, yep, last.
Speaker 1: Right, and you were everybody was like, what what is this?
Speaker 1: What the Packers are going to destroy the Chargers And
Speaker 1: it was some really really small line and I remember thinking,
Speaker 1: right was Righters on the road minus three, right, and
Speaker 1: the Chargers won twenty six to eleven. Like it was
Speaker 1: just one of these things where it was like, what
Speaker 1: is happening at this point when lines like I will
Speaker 1: admit I guess that you're right. That was one of
Speaker 1: the lines that stuck out to me to say, I
Speaker 1: would make this much closer to five five and a
Speaker 1: half maybe six. Why is it so low? I don't know,
Speaker 1: but you know who, I don't know. This year is
Speaker 1: a little crazy. Let me throw one out there that
Speaker 1: I like a little bit.
Speaker 2: Okay, So just so, just so we're we're on the
Speaker 2: same side of the Saints, right, yes, so we're taking
Speaker 2: the Saints minus three, right or two and a half
Speaker 2: and a half. We're taking the Titans minus two and
Speaker 2: a half, right, correct?
Speaker 1: Okay, those are the ones will will lock in.
Speaker 2: We need three more plays here, correct.
Speaker 1: Now, I'd be willing to go Bill's six and a half.
Speaker 1: We can talk about that a little more. But let's
Speaker 1: put that one in in pencil again, and maybe the
Speaker 1: Cardinals at getting six and a half. That one, that
Speaker 1: one's on the table, that's on off the table. How
Speaker 1: do you feel about the Steelers on the road on
Speaker 1: Monday Night football laying five and a half against the Giants? Now,
Speaker 1: I think I have this at three or something because
Speaker 1: that's what like the line originally opened up, probably before
Speaker 1: they realized there'd be no fans. I don't know. I
Speaker 1: mean I realized five and a half. It's not a
Speaker 1: small number, but it strikes me as the Steelers are
Speaker 1: gonna come out in this game, and just I know
Speaker 1: Tomlin's not great in the beginning of the season, but
Speaker 1: I think they're just gonna go out and exert their
Speaker 1: will on the Giants in this game.
Speaker 2: What do you think about it? There's a couple of
Speaker 2: paralt isms that you're gonna learn about Dan as we
Speaker 2: go through. Boy, I do not play five and a half.
Speaker 1: Ever, that's a number that you just don't play.
Speaker 2: Don't play it's a dead number. It means the books
Speaker 2: don't know. Anytime you see a book put up a
Speaker 2: five and a half, they don't know that number. That
Speaker 2: number is six is a key number, seven is a
Speaker 2: key number. Three is a key number. Four to key number.
Speaker 2: Five is a dead number. Yeah, five and a half
Speaker 2: they don't know. And when they don't know and they
Speaker 2: just put that up, that's literally them. I think, in
Speaker 2: my opinion, they're raising the white flag and just say
Speaker 2: we're gonna put a number up that the professionals won't bet.
Speaker 2: So I see five and a half. Look, it doesn't
Speaker 2: mean the Giants can't win and cover. It just means
Speaker 2: that those that's a trap game and you can get
Speaker 2: beat by the hook so easily with that last second
Speaker 2: field goal. I've seen it too much in these contests
Speaker 2: when it comes to five and a half, that is
Speaker 2: a really dangerous number. And there's two of them. There's
Speaker 2: the Eagles and at five and a half and the
Speaker 2: Giants at five and a half, which both games I'm
Speaker 2: a no play on.
Speaker 1: So those games are just off. Okay, that's fine. How
Speaker 1: do you feel about the Bears getting two and a
Speaker 1: half against the Lions.
Speaker 2: See here, the Lions are the professional team again, every
Speaker 2: pro I know. Yeah, they love the Lions. They have
Speaker 2: bet the Lions over, they've hammered. But Golladay's out, okay,
Speaker 2: And so Golladay's not playing, and they're gonna get swift backs.
Speaker 2: But he's a rookie running back. So I mean we
Speaker 2: saw clyde Us Hilaire have a big knight. But I
Speaker 2: don't know.
Speaker 1: I think VI ties out as well. I mean they
Speaker 1: they I don't know, man.
Speaker 2: This, but I hate Tribitsky with a flaming as much
Speaker 2: as I hate Zach Taylor. I hate Tribitsky. So you
Speaker 2: want to go on the road and late and you
Speaker 2: want to take okay, I mean it's on the road.
Speaker 1: It's on the road in name only, right, I mean.
Speaker 2: Still on the road. It's still indoors.
Speaker 1: Still don't it's still indoors. That is fine. I don't
Speaker 1: like Marky, but I mean he was as bad as
Speaker 1: a quarterback could be last year and they went eight
Speaker 1: to eight, right, And I think you know, if they
Speaker 1: defensively is really what they're going to be able to
Speaker 1: do without Galladay, you know, and I do. I think
Speaker 1: Robert Quinn is doubtful, so I think that is a problem.
Speaker 1: But Khalil Knack's going to be there. Their offensive line
Speaker 1: isn't that good. So for me, I would take the
Speaker 1: Bears and pick them. I think they're going to win
Speaker 1: this game. But okay, that's fine. Let's think about it now.
Speaker 1: You don't like the Rams getting two and a half
Speaker 1: from the Cowboys, right, you like them only I.
Speaker 2: Would rather like I would rather have the three, the
Speaker 2: security of the three.
Speaker 1: Of course.
Speaker 2: I just I think the Cowboys. This is one of
Speaker 2: these like really public years for the Cowboys. Yeah, and
Speaker 2: everyone's like the Cowboys are gonna be outstanding, and I
Speaker 2: just don't. I don't know. I mean, I just I
Speaker 2: could be wrong about him. But I don't see a
Speaker 2: ten win team out of the NFC East, any of them. Okay,
Speaker 2: I don't think there's a ten win team in that division.
Speaker 2: I think that the Cowboys go nine and seven. This
Speaker 2: is a game that they clearly need, but it's on
Speaker 2: the road. And here's my thing with Jared Goff. If
Speaker 2: you look at his home splits, the dude is so
Speaker 2: much better at home. Why he can hear his head coach.
Speaker 2: His head coach can tell him what to do. No
Speaker 2: silent counts. He's more comfortable this is a home game
Speaker 2: in week number one, without any concern of not being
Speaker 2: able to be told what to do. I don't know.
Speaker 2: I think McVeigh I know a whole hard knocks curse,
Speaker 2: but it's a different type of year for hard knocks. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I do like I like the Rents plus three, though
Speaker 2: the two and a half does scare me.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it scares me. I would be willing to do
Speaker 1: it because I do think that there's a chance that
Speaker 1: the Rams are going to be able to win this
Speaker 1: game out right. But that let's put that aside. How
Speaker 1: do you feel about the Ravens links having a half
Speaker 1: to the Browns?
Speaker 2: See, this is where I like this because it's eight
Speaker 2: in the circa, so I prefer this. So this is
Speaker 2: a play I like a lot raven I.
Speaker 1: Will do this one, by the way, if you were
Speaker 1: this is one where I've been waiting. I have a
Speaker 1: couple of games where I'm like, if Matt gives me
Speaker 1: the go ahead on this, I'm just firing it. I'm
Speaker 1: not putting it in earnything, but I'll fire it up.
Speaker 1: If you're good with the Ravens laying seven and a
Speaker 1: half against the Browns, I will take that. I think,
Speaker 1: by the way, they're gonna be I think they're gonna
Speaker 1: be mad. I think they're gonna be really mad at
Speaker 1: how things ended last year. I think they're gonna come
Speaker 1: out and make a statement, and they've got all the
Speaker 1: continuity in the world what we love early on. I
Speaker 1: think this is gonna be a big one for them.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Dobbins is gonna have a monster year,
Speaker 2: much like Clyde des Hilaire for the for the Chiefs.
Speaker 2: I think Dobbins out of Ohio State running behind Lamar
Speaker 2: Jackson that offensive line. I think the two guys together,
Speaker 2: their stable of running backs are really deep. And one
Speaker 2: thing I like about the fact that they're a run
Speaker 2: first team. If they get up early, if they get
Speaker 2: up big here, which I think they could on the Browns,
Speaker 2: they're gonna run the clock out where the Chiefs on
Speaker 2: Thursday night, they just were kind of going through the
Speaker 2: motions and giving the ball back to the and I
Speaker 2: kept on sweating it, going, oh my gosh, this minus
Speaker 2: ten is not going to hit because they keep on
Speaker 2: giving this, and then O'Brien did me some favors, missing
Speaker 2: in two point conversion and then kicking an extra point,
Speaker 2: and I was.
Speaker 1: Like, hell, hell, thank.
Speaker 2: You, Bill O'Brien, appreciate that you help out, and then
Speaker 2: we didn't ultimately didn't need it because of the role
Speaker 2: that got kicked Andy Reid with a bleep you field
Speaker 2: goal at the end of the game. But I think
Speaker 2: they'll run the clock out, so there's not that back
Speaker 2: door fear here with the Browns as much as there
Speaker 2: was with the Texans. So even though you have the
Speaker 2: hook there, seven would be better. But I'm comfortable at
Speaker 2: seven and a half.
Speaker 1: And I forgot who it was, maybe David Cocher or
Speaker 1: if that's how you pronounce his name, who was on
Speaker 1: last year, who just was like, man, I you know,
Speaker 1: I don't mind hammering Harbor because Harbaugh doesn't just want
Speaker 1: to win bat that he wants to take your heart.
Speaker 2: Out, especially week one, right because like everyone's going to
Speaker 2: compare them to the Chiefs and what the Chiefs did,
Speaker 2: and like all of a sudden, the Chiefs are running
Speaker 2: the football, so you know the harball is gonna be like, okay, fine,
Speaker 2: you want to run the football. Watch this and we're
Speaker 2: gonna run the football real And look, I I just
Speaker 2: new coach. I know the offense is a work in progress.
Speaker 2: I do think OBJ has a beast as a bounce
Speaker 2: back year for this team, But I'm just not that
Speaker 2: sold on Baker Mayfield. And I'm just I don't like
Speaker 2: the fact that rookie coaches coming in taking over during
Speaker 2: COVID nineteen pandemic time. Is is smart week one?
Speaker 1: Okay, Okay, that's fine, Okay. I think we're probably on
Speaker 1: different sides of this one. So that's why I'm kind
Speaker 1: of saving it here to the end. How do you
Speaker 1: feel about the Raiders laying three and a half to
Speaker 1: the Panthers, which is what it is in DCA. I
Speaker 1: don't know what it is in the circa.
Speaker 2: It's three in the circa. I don't like it at
Speaker 2: three and a half at all.
Speaker 1: But you you don't like it from the Raiders point
Speaker 1: of view?
Speaker 2: Right? From a Raiders point of view, yeah, right.
Speaker 1: See, I kind of like the Panthers wide.
Speaker 2: If you like the Panthers getting the hook, there's significant.
Speaker 2: Three and a half is significant and if I wouldn't
Speaker 2: play it any other way. But the Panthers at plus
Speaker 2: three and a half. And look, if you like Joe
Speaker 2: Brady and you think he's going to be able to
Speaker 2: transform Bridgewater into you know, you know, a stellar quarterback
Speaker 2: Christian McCaffrey come in. I mean, can he single handedly
Speaker 2: beat the Raiders potentially? Yeah, Raiders defense gets some big questions.
Speaker 2: My question is on the other side where you're losing
Speaker 2: a ton of talent for that pack, that the that
Speaker 2: Panthers defense, and a ton of leadership off that Panthers
Speaker 2: defense from last year, and you've got weapons everywhere for
Speaker 2: this for this team, for the Raiders. So I think
Speaker 2: it's going to be a shootout. Yeah.
Speaker 1: By the way, that's what I like.
Speaker 2: I like the over in the game. But we're not
Speaker 2: playing with sides only here. So if I was gonna
Speaker 2: bet it, if I had to, I would take the
Speaker 2: three and a half. But I mean three with the Raiders.
Speaker 2: I do think there's a decent shot that it comes
Speaker 2: down to a last second field goal and the Raiders win.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's fair. I think if I were to,
Speaker 1: you know, go one way, it would be the Panthers
Speaker 1: getting the hook. And if you were like, yeah, Dan,
Speaker 1: I really like that I'd be willing to make that
Speaker 1: a pick. I think we touched on every game, and
Speaker 1: then we'll we'll decide.
Speaker 2: Well, we haven't talked about there's a couple there on
Speaker 2: my team.
Speaker 1: Where's my That's the only game I think we haven't
Speaker 1: talked about. That's what I'm getting to. Okay, the team,
Speaker 1: I would like to know how you feel about this.
Speaker 1: The Patriots laying six and a half to the Dolls.
Speaker 1: I think we have at least touched on every other game.
Speaker 1: That's the one. Patriots laying six and a half to
Speaker 1: the Dolphins.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I teased it, so a daily Juice play was
Speaker 2: Patriots teased down to minus five, minus half a point
Speaker 2: two point five and then taking the Cardinals from seven
Speaker 2: and teasing it up to thirteen. Okay, so that's a
Speaker 2: daily juice play that I gave out, and I think
Speaker 2: the Patriots win, But if I had to bet it,
Speaker 2: I probably would take the Dolphins. Six and a half
Speaker 2: is a little The Patriots are gonna play a bunch
Speaker 2: of games by three points. They're gonna win seventeen fourteen
Speaker 2: a lot, so six and a half feels DeVante Parker.
Speaker 2: The reason why I probably wouldn't play it is because
Speaker 2: I don't know about DeVante Parker yet.
Speaker 1: If he's playing, it sounds like he's gonna play. I mean,
Speaker 1: whether or not he'll be limited at all, but it
Speaker 1: does sound like he is good to go.
Speaker 2: Yeah, if he's playing, I'm comfortable laying the six and
Speaker 2: a half. I mean started taking sorry, sorry, started taking
Speaker 2: the six and a half with the Dolphins. I mean
Speaker 2: I actually I would much rather at seven, but I've
Speaker 2: been So I'll pose this to you. So do you
Speaker 2: think what is the win total for the Patriots? What
Speaker 2: do you think? What do you think they'll be?
Speaker 1: I think they'll probably wind up going nine and seven.
Speaker 2: Okay, so you're you're very okay. So on my radio show,
Speaker 2: and I was literally throwing this out there, I said,
Speaker 2: anyone who wants to take this because everyone was saying
Speaker 2: six and ten. I've heard six and ten from like
Speaker 2: a mix and ten. Yep, I've heard it from a
Speaker 2: million people, six and ten six. And I said, fine,
Speaker 2: I said, I will lay one hundred dollars on anybody
Speaker 2: who wants to take this. I'll take the action on
Speaker 2: anybody one hundred dollars. Patriots to win more than six games,
Speaker 2: and no one wants it. It's not even the people
Speaker 2: who say six and ten. Even the people who are
Speaker 2: saying six and ten in the media. Lum Marloney from
Speaker 2: WI in Boston. I was going back and forth on
Speaker 2: Twitter with Lou and he's saying six and ten. I said, fine, Lou,
Speaker 2: let's do it. He goes, well, Vegas is eight and
Speaker 2: a half at Vegas. I'll take that. I said, no,
Speaker 2: that's not what you said. I said six and ten.
Speaker 2: And so I think the Patriots, I think you're right.
Speaker 2: I think they're eight and eight, nine and seven. Yeah,
Speaker 2: And I think it has a lot to do with
Speaker 2: the division because they have four wins. They have four
Speaker 2: wins in the division sitting there. They need three more
Speaker 2: wins to get to seven. Okay, they're not going to
Speaker 2: be a six and ten football team. I don't. They
Speaker 2: may not make the playoffs. But I think the games
Speaker 2: like this, these are the games that the Patriots win
Speaker 2: on a last second field goal. You know that they
Speaker 2: pull something out defensive, makes a play or something around the.
Speaker 1: Wad, especially early in the year, right, because you always
Speaker 1: look at the Patriots in the beginning of the year
Speaker 1: and you're like, oh man, for like ten years who
Speaker 1: are like, I don't know, they don't look that good.
Speaker 1: You know, maybe they're two and two to start, and
Speaker 1: then they just wrap off twelve wins in a row
Speaker 1: like in the beginning of the year. I feel like
Speaker 1: Belichick is like, let me try this, let me try this,
Speaker 1: let me see what works here, let me do this.
Speaker 1: And so they win these close games early on in
Speaker 1: the year. And that's why I look, you know, if
Speaker 1: you're if you're good with it, I will roll with
Speaker 1: Miami getting six and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, in Week one, given how heavy that six and
Speaker 2: a half point feel is, I think it could be
Speaker 2: a pretty popular play. But you're in New Hampshire and
Speaker 2: with the DraftKings contest, I feel like we're going against everyone,
Speaker 2: so we have a chance to get some noise like that.
Speaker 1: That's right, that's a good call. Ye, it's a good call.
Speaker 2: You you're going against whatever one's gonna go ahead and play.
Speaker 2: And look, we're trying to obviously can this is a
Speaker 2: contest here, so write some game theory when it goes
Speaker 2: into it. We're not petting any money on this, so
Speaker 2: I'm I'm I'm comfortable at six and a half to take.
Speaker 1: It, Okay, So for our contest. Do you correct me
Speaker 1: if I'm wrong? It looks like we've locked in four
Speaker 1: Ravens laying seven and a half to the Browns. Correct,
Speaker 1: Saints laying three and a half to the Bucks. Yep,
Speaker 1: Titans laying two and a half to the Broncos.
Speaker 2: Yep.
Speaker 1: Dolphin's getting six and a half from the Patriots.
Speaker 2: So it comes down to the Bills and the Cardinals.
Speaker 1: Bills and the Cardinals unless you like the Chargers or
Speaker 1: are you off it because it's three and.
Speaker 2: A half, And yeah, I'm off at three and a half.
Speaker 2: It's yeah, right, I mean I would take the Bengals personally,
Speaker 2: if I was gonna go on that.
Speaker 1: Side, Okay, I would take all right, Yeah, so let's stick. Yeah,
Speaker 1: So you I know you really like the Cards, Hans,
Speaker 1: this is your pick. That's the one that you feel
Speaker 1: strongly about.
Speaker 2: Hi, I like the Cardinals a lot. I mean, I mean, look,
Speaker 2: the only problem with six and a half lay it.
Speaker 2: It's the same reason why you know we just got
Speaker 2: into it with the Patriots and the Dolphins. It's it's
Speaker 2: a big number. This is a divisional game. The Bills
Speaker 2: have a divisional game as well, right, But I'm just
Speaker 2: Josh Allen. I mean, my gosh, like you hate the
Speaker 2: Bills so much and I hate Josh Allen so much.
Speaker 1: Are aware though, of like what the Jets look like
Speaker 1: at this point, right like once Jamal Adams was traded,
Speaker 1: right like, like you know how bad this defense is
Speaker 1: going to be, right like their cornerbacks are not going
Speaker 1: to be able to stop Stefan Diggs and John Brown.
Speaker 1: He just has to get it somewhere in the same vicinity,
Speaker 1: you know what I mean, You don't got to worry
Speaker 1: about being like, man, let me get these sixty yard passes, right,
Speaker 1: just get it anywhere there's gonna be nowhere near either
Speaker 1: one of these guys. They can still stop the run,
Speaker 1: even without CJ. Moseley, they can still stop the run.
Speaker 1: And so maybe that you know that they're not going
Speaker 1: to be able to run quite as well. But again,
Speaker 1: even you know the Jets offense, who are we throwing
Speaker 1: the ball into?
Speaker 2: Like, but that's the one thing about this pick. You're
Speaker 2: a Jets fan, correct, So you could handicap your team
Speaker 2: as well as anybody because you watch these guys. You
Speaker 2: suffer through these games. So if you tell me that
Speaker 2: you feel much more confident on Buffalo blowing out the
Speaker 2: Jets that you do the Cardinals keeping the game close.
Speaker 2: I'm willing to go with you. Man.
Speaker 1: All Right, this is tough. This is really tough. I
Speaker 1: don't know how I feel about this because I'm trying
Speaker 1: to be objective and you know, the Jets. I don't
Speaker 1: want to add, you know, to to basically be like,
Speaker 1: all right, I'm the tiebreaker, let's see where we go.
Speaker 1: And I wind up rooting against the Jets, going to
Speaker 1: really make me upset, you know, to do it. And
Speaker 1: you know, the more I've I've kind of dug into
Speaker 1: the Cardinals game because you sent it. And that was
Speaker 1: the one where I was like, Okay, let me think
Speaker 1: about this, because at first I was like, I don't know.
Speaker 1: I really like the forty nine ers, let me see,
Speaker 1: and they have so much continuity, but again, they have
Speaker 1: a ton of injury to their receiving depth. I mean
Speaker 1: that is part of what it is. And yeah, I
Speaker 1: mean you do have you know, you have the same system. Obviously, Murray,
Speaker 1: I think is going to be much better in year two.
Speaker 1: Really the only big change is the addition of DeAndre Hopkins,
Speaker 1: and that doesn't really matter that much right, all right, Maddie,
Speaker 1: here's what we're gonna go. We're gonna go with the Cardinals,
Speaker 1: all right. I like it because it was the first
Speaker 1: one you came up with. We're gonna go with the Cardinals.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna spare myself the horror of having to root
Speaker 1: against the Jets and then watching them.
Speaker 2: Just for the record, the Bills and the Cardinals both
Speaker 2: will be in my circle place, so okay, they're both
Speaker 2: these picks. I'm comfortable.
Speaker 1: So you get to root against the Jets, that's fine. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna spare myself a little bit. I'm gonna spare
Speaker 1: myself from the Jets last second meaningless touchdown to lose,
Speaker 1: right that bit? All right, guys. So those are our
Speaker 1: official draft kings. Pick them championship plays. It's gonna be
Speaker 1: the Ravens lank seven and a half to the Browns,
Speaker 1: Saints lank three and a half to the Bucks, the
Speaker 1: Titans lank two and a half to the Broncos, the
Speaker 1: Dolphins getting six and a half from the Patriots, and
Speaker 1: the Cardinals getting six and a half from the four
Speaker 1: nine ers. I like it, Matt. It's a good mix
Speaker 1: of favorites and underdogs. I feel good about this. Are
Speaker 1: you ready to begin our quest?
Speaker 2: Now? I'm so ready, and I'm so interested to see
Speaker 2: how many entries wind up actually in this thing for
Speaker 2: the draft Kings Pro Football pick them. But it's remarkable
Speaker 2: on the East coast see here in Vegas. This is
Speaker 2: part of our culture. It is a new thing in
Speaker 2: New Hampshire, New Jersey and West Virginia for the most part.
Speaker 2: So I'm very curious to see how we do. I
Speaker 2: mean that there's gonna be a lot of newbies here
Speaker 2: in this tournament.
Speaker 1: And again again, three hundred and seventy six entries. That's
Speaker 1: it right now.
Speaker 2: I mean, but Johnny Vella told me today that they
Speaker 2: expect a rush, so as you guys know, in the
Speaker 2: fantasy side of things, to offer free rolls kind of
Speaker 2: the way that they go. And I mean they they
Speaker 2: lost ten million dollars on that game on Thursday. Okay,
Speaker 2: I gave away ten million dollars a free roll of
Speaker 2: free money to the people who bet the Chiefs plus
Speaker 2: one hundred and one. So losing a million might not
Speaker 2: that be that big of a deal to them, or
Speaker 2: two million? They may not care?
Speaker 1: All right, Well, look follow us both on Twitter at
Speaker 1: sports Talk Matt, I'm at Dan Harris Ades. Follow us
Speaker 1: as we sweat this long. Hopefully we get off to
Speaker 1: a big start. Last year, I believe I went one
Speaker 1: in four in the opening week and then rattled off
Speaker 1: like good, a five and oh, a five in and
Speaker 1: like a.
Speaker 2: Four and one or something like that.
Speaker 1: So follow us, all right, Matt, You've got to move,
Speaker 1: my friends, So go get go, get your stuff done again.
Speaker 1: Thanks everybody for stopping by. We'll be back every week,
Speaker 1: a little earlier. Next week, as you know, we get
Speaker 1: rid of the conflicts, and we'll be giving you we'll
Speaker 1: be breaking down what happened this week, and we'll be
Speaker 1: giving you our five picks coming into next week. Until then,
Speaker 1: have a great week, Enjoy your Sunday, NFL Football,