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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Robert Kaplin with us right now is affiliated with Gold

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Speaker 2: and Sex and of course his public service at the

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Speaker 2: Dallas Fed.

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Speaker 3: This is great.

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Speaker 2: I thought Austin Golesby's descent yesterday was really something with

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Speaker 2: his technology bent his workout at MIT at Chicago.

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Speaker 3: Now, I just, you know, my.

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Speaker 2: Own individual opinion is Goolsby something really worth watching here.

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Speaker 2: Mark Winn is out of Ireland Rochester has a shingle

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Speaker 2: out at the Dallas Fed. And of course Mark Winn,

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Speaker 2: under your student guidance years ago, has a spectacle killer

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Speaker 2: essay out on AI. In the summary of Mark Win's

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Speaker 2: work is we just don't know, do we?

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Speaker 4: Well.

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Speaker 5: I think we're in the early stages of AI adoption.

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Speaker 5: Most of the talk about AI right now is about

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Speaker 5: the infrastructure build, but that's different than the downstream adoption.

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Speaker 5: We're in the first or second inning. I think my

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Speaker 5: own view and I think the view of My firm

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Speaker 5: is when we talk five years from now, we'll see

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Speaker 5: a half a percentage point gain in productivity growth for

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Speaker 5: GDP and it will help business.

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Speaker 4: But which use cases work and which don't.

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Speaker 5: We're going to spend the next three years trying to

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Speaker 5: figure that out.

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Speaker 6: Net is it positive for the economy and how material

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Speaker 6: because a lot of folks are hanging their hat on

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Speaker 6: AI is really being a productivity enhancered to really impact

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Speaker 6: the economy.

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Speaker 5: If you got a half a percentage point jump in

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Speaker 5: productivity growth, that's a huge deal. So we have sluggish

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Speaker 5: workforce growth in the United States.

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Speaker 4: We don't have much immigration at the moment.

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Speaker 5: Bulk of our GDP growths got to come from productivity growth.

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Speaker 5: So AI is very important to the world and to

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Speaker 5: the US. And yeah, half a percentage point would be

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Speaker 5: a big deal.

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Speaker 6: Would you take away yesterday from the FED meeting?

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Speaker 4: Here? Pretty straightforward?

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Speaker 5: I think that I think in the room there was

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Speaker 5: a lot more disagreement than it may have looked like,

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Speaker 5: only a couple.

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Speaker 4: Of descents, but we're at or near neutral.

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Speaker 5: I think Jpell even said that it shows confirms that

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Speaker 5: I think the neutral rate nominal is about three and

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Speaker 5: a half three and three quarters, and some of the

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Speaker 5: folks say, with inflation at two and three quarters and

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Speaker 5: the job market likely to firm in the.

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Speaker 4: Next year, we shouldn't be at neutral.

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Speaker 5: And I think overall they bought insurance in case the

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Speaker 5: labor market's weaker than they thought. But from here it

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Speaker 5: will be a conventional FED, meaning something's got changed to

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Speaker 5: move the rate, either unemployment needs to worsen or inflation

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Speaker 5: needs to improve.

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Speaker 2: Accrastination Robert Kaplan with US of Gold and Sachs's former

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Speaker 2: services the Dallas Fed. So say, we say good morning

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Speaker 2: to Texas as well. So I look at yesterday's meeting,

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Speaker 2: and I look at all the what IFFs that are

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Speaker 2: out there, and the bottom line is a dual mandate.

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Speaker 2: And I kept carrying them back and forth on the

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Speaker 2: dual mandate. What's the history that you've studied of whether

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Speaker 2: they focused on inflation or jobs, And don't tell me both,

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Speaker 2: because it's really hard to do that well.

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Speaker 5: For a lot of the last ten or fifteen years,

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Speaker 5: the Fed had the luxury exact free COVID of not

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Speaker 5: having an inflation problem, so it could focus heavily on

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Speaker 5: what was going on employment.

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Speaker 4: And I thought employment was.

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Speaker 5: Weakening, it could move post COVID, and I would argue,

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Speaker 5: with this boom in government spending we had in twenty

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Speaker 5: twenty one, twenty two, twenty three, which probably costs supply

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Speaker 5: chain dynamics to create an excess demand issue, they got

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Speaker 5: to deal with both, and it's harder to deal with both,

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Speaker 5: and so then they have to make trade off decisions

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Speaker 5: and that's hard to do. And having said that, I

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Speaker 5: think they've done a reasonable balancing job. But that's the

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Speaker 5: reason for the division in the group. It's not that

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Speaker 5: they prioritize one over the other. I think the fact

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Speaker 5: is we've had three headwinds. One in the short run,

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Speaker 5: tariffs are slowing growth, the immigration policy is slowed growth.

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Speaker 5: And the shutdown, as you would expect to slow growth,

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Speaker 5: but the shutdown is reversing. And going into twenty six,

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Speaker 5: we're in a f tax incentives, We've got this AI

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Speaker 5: boom continuing, and I think the economy is likely to firm,

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Speaker 5: and you saw that in the dot plot. And people

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Speaker 5: are saying, you know, the labor weakness is going to

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Speaker 5: a firm, let's do nothing, And that's the reason for

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Speaker 5: the debate.

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Speaker 6: Interesting, when you talk to your clients at Goldman Sachs,

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Speaker 6: what is their view for twenty twenty six we're seeing

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Speaker 6: I kind of look at M and A as a

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Speaker 6: barometer of how confident the C suite is and the

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Speaker 6: board is, and we're seeing a big M and A

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Speaker 6: trade going crazy out there with Warner Brothers Discovery. When

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Speaker 6: you talk to your corporate clients, are think confident about

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Speaker 6: their ability in twenty twenty six to maybe grow?

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Speaker 5: I think most companies believe, as we do that twenty

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Speaker 5: six you'll see firming GDP growth because of tax and

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Speaker 5: centers and other reasons.

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Speaker 4: However, I've never.

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Speaker 5: Seen a period in my business career where there wasn't

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Speaker 5: a bigger concern about the need for size and scale

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Speaker 5: to afford the technology investment that's driving a lot of

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Speaker 5: merger activity.

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Speaker 2: We can cover this a number of times this week

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Speaker 2: as well. So then do we head towards a monopsimistic America?

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Speaker 2: Do we have a capitalism that is essentially a big

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Speaker 2: roll up to get the CAPEX scale?

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Speaker 5: I think you're going to have lots of still small

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Speaker 5: emerging businesses powered by AI that can grow and will

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Speaker 5: be very attractive, and they'll get to a point where

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Speaker 5: they kind of stabilize. You'll have lots of very big,

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Speaker 5: huge scale companies that are dominant, and you're going to

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Speaker 5: have a lot in between. And I guess i'd say

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Speaker 5: it in between has gotten a lot bigger. And the

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Speaker 5: last companies that used to think they were big and

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Speaker 5: dominant and still aren't less dominant.

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Speaker 2: I looked at Procter and Gamble carefully, so iind of

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Speaker 2: want you to comment on individual security.

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Speaker 3: But what does old industry do in their in between?

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Speaker 5: This build size and scale and make more investment in efficiency, productivity,

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Speaker 5: technology and so all that costs money and in the

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Speaker 5: short run reduce as margins. And that's why you also

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Speaker 5: see a lot of bell tightening right now right now

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Speaker 5: to offset some of the margin impact.

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Speaker 6: One of the newer developments capital markets wise, there the

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Speaker 6: last fifteen years have been private credit.

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Speaker 7: What's your view there.

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Speaker 5: I mean, we tend to view it as a continued credit.

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Speaker 5: I'd say has has been a good addition. It's been

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Speaker 5: a good addition to bank lending. The only comment I

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Speaker 5: would make, on the other hand is investment grade credit

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Speaker 5: spreads are very tight, but it's investment grade. I think

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Speaker 5: the watchout is the lesson investment great side of private credit.

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Speaker 5: We haven't had a credit cycle in many years. We're

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Speaker 5: not going to have one. I don't think in twenty six.

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Speaker 5: We'll have one eventually, and so there's a lot of

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Speaker 5: money flowing in to lesson investment, great private credit.

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Speaker 4: I'd be careful about that.

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Speaker 2: Robert Caplin, thank you so much, greatly, greatly appreciated, of course,

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Speaker 2: the former president of Dallas FED and with Goldman sachs

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Speaker 2: Now and of course an affiliation Hardard over the years.

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Speaker 3: Stay with us.

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Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

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Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 1: watch us Live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: We talked to a number of people I think at

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Speaker 2: Hugh von steina Is over at Oliver Wyman who have

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Speaker 2: like legit academic they've worked at it. They just don't

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Speaker 2: go get a piece of parch bin, they work at it.

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Speaker 2: Alexis Crow's out of Saint Andrews and a London School

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Speaker 2: of Economics with all sorts of ability tooling teaching. I

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Speaker 2: should say at LLC as well. She rounded out of

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Speaker 2: pw C Price Waterhouse Coopers. I'm sorry, I'm going to

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Speaker 2: call it that. It's Ernst and Winnie and it's Deloitte,

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Speaker 2: Haskin and Sells. But Alexis Crow joins U s a

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Speaker 2: partner Chief Economist pw C.

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Speaker 3: When you see a headline Disney to make one billion

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Speaker 3: equity investment, is it a time? Is it a frenzy

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Speaker 3: right now? Is it an unthinking frenzy where we're just

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Speaker 3: like do this.

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Speaker 8: It's one hundred percent, Tom, thank you, It's one hundred

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Speaker 8: percent a US focus game. This is very exclusively. If

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Speaker 8: you're in capital markets and you're INAI, it's US. If

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Speaker 8: you're in government spending, it's China, and Europe is still

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Speaker 8: sort of looking askance at the whole thing. So I

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Speaker 8: think there's a fomo element here as well with companies

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Speaker 8: and they need to communicate to their shareholders that they're

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Speaker 8: investing in next generation technology, which today is AI.

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Speaker 2: You're at sixty thousand feet, what do you hear from

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Speaker 2: PwC clients. I'm fascinated by the PwC does is kickoff

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Speaker 2: at Davos. If you're a young global leader, you know

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Speaker 2: they do the first meeting in a basement of the

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Speaker 2: belvedere and it's your outlook in your nailsis give us

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Speaker 2: a heads up on that.

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Speaker 8: I mean, I think one thing that's striking Tom is

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Speaker 8: that over time the availability of key skills has been

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Speaker 8: a key pressure point and a key concern for CEOs,

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Speaker 8: regardless of jurisdiction, regardless of sector. And so I think

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Speaker 8: AI is meant to be this panacea that's going to

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Speaker 8: solve the.

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Speaker 7: World of all of its ills.

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Speaker 8: If we're thinking about a shortage of skills, if we're

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Speaker 8: thinking about an uplift in productivity, if we're thinking about

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Speaker 8: investment to support capital markets and returns and consumer firepower,

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Speaker 8: and so that continues to be the buzzword. The interesting

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Speaker 8: thing is can you separate AI a little bit out

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Speaker 8: from other investments in technology? And when you strip that away,

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Speaker 8: you might get a little different reading.

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Speaker 6: So one of the questions I have when of the

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Speaker 6: folks come in here and they throw about these monster numbers,

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Speaker 6: how much is really incremental spending versus just shifting spending

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Speaker 6: from it? And I'm not sure I'm getting a great

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Speaker 6: answer there. One of the things we also talk about

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Speaker 6: from economics perspective is that Cay shaped economy. You guys

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Speaker 6: have a little bit different view on it, talking about

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Speaker 6: a pac Man economy.

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Speaker 7: Talk to us about that.

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Speaker 3: That's right, Paul.

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Speaker 8: Exclusively, in the United States, we have a situation where

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Speaker 8: the K, the top part of the K, continues to appreciate, right,

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Speaker 8: the top parts of the income distribution, spending, income, wealth,

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Speaker 8: purchasing power all appreciating significantly. But rather than a K,

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Speaker 8: the bottom part of the income distribution, the bottom fifteenth

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Speaker 8: percentile has flatlined. It's not continued to tumble. Okay, net

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Speaker 8: worth held by the bottom fiftieth percentile in the United

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Speaker 8: States has more than doubled over the last five years

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Speaker 8: four point two trillion dollars. Really, I didn't, Okay, we

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Speaker 8: had a Genie coefficient, which is, you know, technical technical

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Speaker 8: way of looking at inequality actually tumbled by the single

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Speaker 8: greatest amount on record twenty nineteen to twenty twenty one.

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Speaker 8: So we had, of course a tight labor market, creative

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Speaker 8: destruction in the labor market, and all of this contributed

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Speaker 8: to real incomes appreciating by twenty percent.

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Speaker 6: Is that all the stimulus coming in from the pandemic.

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Speaker 8: Stimulus, tight labor market wages appreciated significantly. We had job

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Speaker 8: creation and new sectors such as logistics right and immediate delivery.

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Speaker 8: And that's in contrast to Europe, where again you just

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Speaker 8: also do not have that wealth appreciation and significant purchasing

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Speaker 8: power coming from that.

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Speaker 3: Genie coefficient, Folks, is really really important.

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Speaker 2: It's a good way to get a quality See on

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Speaker 2: an exam at Saint Andrews years ago, the gloom up

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Speaker 2: there is the model you studied in the United Kingdom

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Speaker 2: of Victorian England, where it's the rich, the aristocracy and

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Speaker 2: that almost pre gilded age, and there's the havenots crushed.

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Speaker 3: You just really pushed against that.

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Speaker 2: How do we show that the bottom half is doing

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Speaker 2: better even though there's those primal anks.

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Speaker 3: Witness the President's polling numbers this morning, Thank you Tom.

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Speaker 8: This is a fragile moment, right that bottom fiftieth percentile.

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Speaker 8: The economic fortunes of this group have flatlined, but we're

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Speaker 8: hovering in this flatline. We've had a teppet housing market

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Speaker 8: right over twenty twenty five in the US, rent declines

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Speaker 8: down five consecutive months, Schiller down. We've had oil in

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Speaker 8: the tank, right, absolutely bear market and oil. So that's

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Speaker 8: also supported some of the basic needs of this group,

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Speaker 8: so that's also supported, and otherwise that might be and

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Speaker 8: not a benign inflation share divinument.

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Speaker 2: Society right now does not support all boats rising. If

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Speaker 2: the haves do well, they'll pull up the have nuts.

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Speaker 2: That's not in the zeitgeist right now.

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Speaker 8: What we need to think about is how can policy

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Speaker 8: makers be seating investments in things that enhance productivity and

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Speaker 8: quality of life for ordinary citizens.

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Speaker 7: One of those is affordable housing.

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Speaker 3: Right now, the price.

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Speaker 8: On housing has been coming down, but ultimately we have

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Speaker 8: a chronic shortage of supply and affordable housing. That's how

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Speaker 8: you think about economic dignity and the means to live

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Speaker 8: a dignified life. It's one thing Tom that also crucially

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Speaker 8: Republicans and Democrats agree upon, and we see that, which

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Speaker 8: is one positive outlook in our fractured environment.

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Speaker 6: So twenty twenty six, what's just kind of your economic

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Speaker 6: outlook here? The Fed probably feels okay about the economy. Here,

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Speaker 6: we might get one or two breakouts.

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Speaker 9: What's your view?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, interesting summary. Your economic projections came out yesterday slightly

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Speaker 8: rosier on GDP growth. I think that everyone is focused

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Speaker 8: to the start of our conversation. Every one is focused

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Speaker 8: on a productivity uplift that will come from AI. My

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Speaker 8: verdict is it will take longer to play out. But

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Speaker 8: I think consumption in the US is still supporting growth

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Speaker 8: and that's seventy percent of our GDP.

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Speaker 2: Can I go British and not talk to Todts losing Sun?

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Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, Totnam is crushing Alexis Crow just as

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Speaker 2: simple as I can. Is Farage a Trump equivalent?

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Speaker 7: I think Tom.

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Speaker 8: The one thing that we're considering is what happens to

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Speaker 8: the fate of institutions under a Farage government?

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Speaker 4: Right?

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Speaker 8: Will there be the same degree and rigor of institutional

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Speaker 8: change that we've witnessed over the last year in the

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Speaker 8: United States, which, let's face it, hasn't shown up in

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Speaker 8: equity markets, hasn't really shown up in the bond market,

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Speaker 8: but has shown up in DXY and current fascinating.

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Speaker 2: What's your basic take on the not the likelihood of it,

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Speaker 2: but is there a Trump analog over to the London

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Speaker 2: and the United Kingdom?

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Speaker 8: The UK has a highly individualistic society, just as we

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Speaker 8: do in the US, and I think that lends itself

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Speaker 8: toward sharper polarization in contrast with what we see in Germany,

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Speaker 8: from Spain, Portugal, Italy. So yes, I think they're primed

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Speaker 8: for a degree of that.

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Speaker 3: We'll have to see.

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Speaker 2: Alexis Crow. Thank you so much. You've got to keep

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Speaker 2: it short today. The news flow is crushing this woman.

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Speaker 2: Have you been to the North Point Cafe at Saint Andrews?

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Speaker 2: Where will you met young Kate Middleton?

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Speaker 4: Oh?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I got a photo after thought it was there.

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Speaker 3: Send me a photo. OMG, it's true. Nice Alexis Crow.

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Speaker 3: Thank you. So are you going to Davas? Will you

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Speaker 3: be there for the PwC kickoff?

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Speaker 8: Sadly I will not be there.

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Speaker 3: I will not be there either. Will you be in

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Speaker 3: London after that?

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Speaker 2: See Lisa as the golf stream that week. I'll have

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Speaker 2: to see, Alexis.

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Speaker 3: Thank you so much. Alexis Crow. This is pw SEE

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Speaker 3: stay with us.

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Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Otto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live

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Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

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Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty in Steely.

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Speaker 2: He's with JP Morgan Asset Management CIO Fixed Income International

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Speaker 2: in from London as well.

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Speaker 3: I want to go wide and broad here.

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Speaker 2: What's the biggest misconception Americans have about all the worries

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Speaker 2: about the United Kingdom and the politics and the royal

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Speaker 2: family and Son is no longer with Tottenham.

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Speaker 3: What's the biggest myth that drives you.

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Speaker 2: Nuts about the way America perceives your United Kingdom.

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Speaker 9: That's interesting because both my boys are Tottenham fans, so

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Speaker 9: they're devastated that Son is.

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Speaker 7: No longer with them either.

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Speaker 9: I think from a fixed income standpoint, actually what you're

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Speaker 9: looking at is you're looking at a UK bond market,

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Speaker 9: which actually US offer a lot of values.

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Speaker 3: There's an opportunity here in others chaos.

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Speaker 9: There is because if you think about the central banks

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Speaker 9: that haven't eased as much as maybe others, the Bank

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Speaker 9: of England stands up as the front runner. And that's

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Speaker 9: partly because the inflation pressure has been more sticky than

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Speaker 9: anywhere else in the world. We do think that is

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Speaker 9: coming down over the course of course of the next year.

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Speaker 9: And actually, when I look at what the Bank of

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Speaker 9: England is pricing. I think they could be doing more

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Speaker 9: so that for us, when we look globally at bond markets,

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Speaker 9: we would probably put the UK up there is one

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Speaker 9: of the better opportunities.

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Speaker 6: Okay, So I mean, I'm just looking at the igo

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Speaker 6: function on the Bloomberg terminal, looking at the fixed income returns.

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Speaker 7: This year twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 6: Is a really good year, high single digit returns across

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Speaker 6: a lot of fixed income markets. Where's the twenty twenty

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Speaker 6: six setup for you guys.

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Speaker 7: So I think it's going to be a similar environment.

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Speaker 9: And I think what we heard we heard obviously from

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Speaker 9: from Power yesterday, they still got that easing bias in.

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Speaker 9: I think, what are the kind of really interesting comments

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Speaker 9: that he's kind of almost slammed the door shut. No

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Speaker 9: one was really predicting hikes as the next the next move.

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Speaker 9: That said, obviously, yields have come down a long way,

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Speaker 9: so it's really, in my mind more of a carry environment.

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Speaker 9: But that's still reasonably attractive carry, and then you get

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Speaker 9: the opportunity that things do go wrong. The diversification of

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Speaker 9: bonds I think is back, which means there's a lot

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Speaker 9: of capital gains if this labor market continues to deteriorate

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Speaker 9: further and faster than the market expects and probably we expect.

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Speaker 9: But I think that's the two things that I always

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Speaker 9: think of it as the bond dream team, income diversification,

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Speaker 9: both of them I think are in play for next year.

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Speaker 6: How much credit risks do you want to take in

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Speaker 6: twenty twenty six year, because I'm looking at that again,

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Speaker 6: some of the returns in twenty twenty five leverage loans,

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Speaker 6: US high yields, some really good returns there. Have that

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Speaker 6: credit risk in twenty six.

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Speaker 9: It's a really good point because spreads are tight. But

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Speaker 9: corporate fundamentals in our minds and from our analyst.

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Speaker 7: View, look really healthy.

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Speaker 9: And if you think what's been happening just over the

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Speaker 9: last few months, obviously sort of the tariff fears have

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Speaker 9: kind of faded into the background a bit. Let's see

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Speaker 9: what happens there. Inflation hasn't been as elevated over here.

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Speaker 7: As was expected.

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Speaker 9: We've had the FED cut race three times now, one

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Speaker 9: big beautiful bill act. We should be getting some fiscal

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Speaker 9: sport in the first half of next year. All of

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Speaker 9: that combines that actually corporates, from a good starting point

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Speaker 9: should be beneficiaries of that. So although again spreads are tight,

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Speaker 9: doesn't feel like we're going to be much tighter. But

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Speaker 9: you're getting that incremental carry and it's that compounding interest.

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Speaker 7: But you need to have fixed income.

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Speaker 9: If you don't take it, and spreads don't go anywhere,

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Speaker 9: you're missing out.

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Speaker 2: A briefing for me and Steely of JP Morgan this

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Speaker 2: morning to get us start a dense scully on deck

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Speaker 2: with a Morgan Stanley.

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Speaker 3: Okay, So if spreads are.

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Speaker 2: Tight, it's comparing a like bond with a different like

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Speaker 2: bond versus full faith incredit treasury. Right during the FED

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Speaker 2: meeting yesterday, I'm looking at the difference in yield between

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Speaker 2: the vanilla two year ten year, the pistachio three month

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Speaker 2: ten year, or across the entire curve of three month

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Speaker 2: out to thirty year. It's getting steeper. I mean, the

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Speaker 2: fact is three months you versus thirty year us, the

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Speaker 2: difference in yield is getting ever larger.

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Speaker 3: Discuss it on.

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Speaker 2: An international basis. If we see curves steepening because of eggs,

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Speaker 2: what's that mean for our listeners and viewers?

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Speaker 9: I think I think you make a good point there,

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Speaker 9: because it's the viewers should be aware that this isn't

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Speaker 9: just a US phenomenon. Curves are steepening around Japan rageally,

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Speaker 9: but even if you look at the UK, if you

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Speaker 9: look at Germany and the Eurozone, curves are steepening. And

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Speaker 9: that's partly because we're getting closer to the end of

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Speaker 9: the the easing cycle. Again, let's see what happens with

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Speaker 9: the data on that. But also there's a huge amount

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Speaker 9: of government debt being issued globally. And again, yes, you

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Speaker 9: spend a lot of time talking about the deficit that

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Speaker 9: you have over here in the US, but actually fiscal

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Speaker 9: support is coming globally, so there's going to be a

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Speaker 9: lot of bond issuance out of governments. And ultimately, what

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Speaker 9: you're seeing is that because of quantitative tightening, the sort

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Speaker 9: of indiscriminate buyer central banks they've faded, so it's now

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Speaker 9: with the private sector and their price setters, and they're.

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Speaker 7: Demanding a little bit more, a little bit more yield,

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Speaker 7: So we're seeing term premiums move higher.

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Speaker 9: And actually, to be honest, for US as fixed income investors,

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Speaker 9: it's good because what we hated a year and eighteen

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Speaker 9: months ago was inverted yield curves. Cash rates being higher

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Speaker 9: than bond yields meant actually why would you step out

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Speaker 9: of cash? Now you get steep curves, you get very

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Speaker 9: attractive role and carry. Actually it's a really good time

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Speaker 9: I think, to be looking at investing into the fixed

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Speaker 9: income markets.

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Speaker 6: For some of our listeners and viewers that may be

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Speaker 6: interested in Europe, where are the values there in Europe

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Speaker 6: broadly defined?

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Speaker 9: So I think actually what you're seeing is some of

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Speaker 9: the peripheral countries which obviously people didn't want to go

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Speaker 9: anywhere near a decade or so ago, they are really improving.

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Speaker 9: We're seeing upgrades from the rating agencies for places like Italy. Again,

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Speaker 9: the spreads, the difference between an Italian bond and a

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Speaker 9: Spanish bond and versus Germany, which is how we think

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Speaker 9: about it in Europe, those have come in. But again

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Speaker 9: it's a similar story to the Creditsit suation that although

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Speaker 9: the spreads do look tight, you're getting extra yield. And

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Speaker 9: if those spreads don't, why didn't you want to be

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Speaker 9: taken that extra yield?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's like Mary Poppins, they're a twenty

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Speaker 3: five bunk.

443
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Speaker 2: Yeah, they're bunks reet sure, and the wharf you're going

444
00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:15,119
Speaker 2: to build.

445
00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:15,720
Speaker 3: A new palace.

446
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 2: Do you perceive it to be as big as the

447
00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:21,240
Speaker 2: Park Avenue palace or is that like sink into the river.

448
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:25,880
Speaker 9: There's gonna be some serious foundations there. It's it's pretty exciting.

449
00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:28,840
Speaker 2: Obviously, there's a place was dead for a while, great

450
00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:31,600
Speaker 2: financial crisis and there but between the boys tail cigar

451
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:34,520
Speaker 2: bar and I mean, it's a long way to Shakeshack

452
00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:37,119
Speaker 2: from where you're located. Can you walk from where you

453
00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 2: are to Shakeshack or do you have to take the

454
00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:40,359
Speaker 2: JP Morgan helicopter.

455
00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:42,440
Speaker 7: Can I can walk to the nearer Shakeshack?

456
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:43,600
Speaker 2: Okay, very good?

457
00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:44,199
Speaker 7: I tell you it.

458
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:46,320
Speaker 6: When I first went out to Canary Wharf twenty five

459
00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:50,879
Speaker 6: years ago, when Solomon City was out there, nobody, no

460
00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:54,159
Speaker 6: one was there, nobody. Now it is a world onto itself.

461
00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:56,879
Speaker 2: Do people prefer to be on the wharf discreet or

462
00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:58,600
Speaker 2: do they want to be in the city near Queen

463
00:22:58,680 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 2: Victoria Street.

464
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:03,080
Speaker 9: And I think it depends depends what you're doing for

465
00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:05,280
Speaker 9: us as an asset management where we're in the city

466
00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 9: and we like it at.

467
00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:10,520
Speaker 6: Okay, the city, you know, it's still the DLR makes

468
00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:11,240
Speaker 6: it so much better.

469
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 3: But this is really cool, this building program and mister

470
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:17,679
Speaker 3: Diamond is really something. You know, everybody's gonna follow them. Sure,

471
00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:21,640
Speaker 3: absolutely got it. Where's mister Griffin? Where's the Citadel place?

472
00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:22,960
Speaker 4: Exactly in Miami Beach.

473
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:25,440
Speaker 10: Oh, look, there's watches of Switzerland. They get a little

474
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:28,359
Speaker 10: business this year, they don't. I wonderful to see if

475
00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:32,040
Speaker 10: bring about Michael next time. Ian seely with us here

476
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:36,400
Speaker 10: with JP Morgan Asset Management and from London, stay with us.

477
00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:46,920
Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

478
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:50,840
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

479
00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:54,280
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

480
00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live

481
00:23:57,359 --> 00:24:00,919
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

482
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:04,200
Speaker 1: say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty and now.

483
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 3: The newspapers for the day. Here's protein pancake. You got it?

484
00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 4: Okay.

485
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:11,159
Speaker 11: When you're speaking with people in the industry, whether they

486
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:12,800
Speaker 11: come in in the studio, oho, you're at an event,

487
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 11: do you notice that some of them have job titles

488
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:19,760
Speaker 11: that you're just like, well, yeah, partly.

489
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:20,679
Speaker 7: From some of the big investment banks.

490
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:22,679
Speaker 3: Oh, come in here, so it is true.

491
00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:25,359
Speaker 11: So LinkedIn estimates that one in five Americans has a

492
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 11: job that didn't exist back in two thousand, things like

493
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 11: knowledge architects, oh, conversation designers and orchestration engineers. Okay, and

494
00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:38,000
Speaker 11: these are all things that are actually type tied to

495
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:40,960
Speaker 11: work with AI models. So now that AI is becoming

496
00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 11: more prevalent in the industry, that you're having these these

497
00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 11: different titles come out.

498
00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:46,480
Speaker 3: Application.

499
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:50,879
Speaker 6: I put down petroleum distribution engineer, Phillips sixty six Corporation.

500
00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:56,359
Speaker 7: A punk gasn exactly distribution how much?

501
00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:59,440
Speaker 3: Oh, it's like less than a dollar again? First time?

502
00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:01,600
Speaker 3: I forty four cents in jelly.

503
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 4: Yeah.

504
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:04,960
Speaker 6: The great thing was there's a brand new golf station

505
00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:06,880
Speaker 6: and a brand new excellent across the street.

506
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:08,880
Speaker 7: That's where everybody went because it was brightly lit.

507
00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:10,480
Speaker 3: Nobody came to our gan station.

508
00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:15,160
Speaker 7: So I read like three books a week. I love it.

509
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 11: But the reason this is big is because you know,

510
00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:19,359
Speaker 11: you have holiday parties and these things coming up, and

511
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:21,119
Speaker 11: so now all these people are saying, well, now I

512
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:23,320
Speaker 11: have to explain what I do. You know, they say,

513
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:24,879
Speaker 11: what do you do? And they have to explain it.

514
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 3: So that's the whole all of the toilets. We got

515
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:30,919
Speaker 3: to move on yes, the phrase I hate the most

516
00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 3: thought leader just it just makes me cringe. Next cringe story. Okay,

517
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 3: cringe story.

518
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:40,680
Speaker 11: Okay, we know all inclusive resorts, right, Paul, I love them.

519
00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:42,760
Speaker 3: Yes, I know, I know you're a big fan. Yes,

520
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:44,879
Speaker 3: but more travelers.

521
00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:47,480
Speaker 11: Want adventure, they want outdoor adventure. So now there are

522
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:52,840
Speaker 11: all inclusive adventure resorts. Okay, So for the one whole price,

523
00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 11: you get activities like fly fishing and horseback running. It's

524
00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:58,080
Speaker 11: snorkeling and rafting and all those things that you would

525
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:01,080
Speaker 11: have to pay separate for all in one hey, in

526
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:03,720
Speaker 11: between the meals and a happy hour, so you get

527
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 11: all that together. How much is it going to cost?

528
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:08,879
Speaker 11: So you have the luxury ones that can cost about

529
00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:12,119
Speaker 11: twenty three hundred a night. Then you have others that

530
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:15,120
Speaker 11: charge maybe like five hundred and fifty dollars a night.

531
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:17,000
Speaker 11: So that's kind of the range of price. But they

532
00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:19,480
Speaker 11: say the pandemic, you know, push people to want these

533
00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:22,679
Speaker 11: outdoor adventures. So now people want it, and so the

534
00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 11: resort industry has answered their request.

535
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:26,680
Speaker 3: It's helped me here.

536
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 2: Then if we're on this, maybe it's an adventure. I'm

537
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:33,399
Speaker 2: doing c IFA Society Phoenix in March. We're really looking

538
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 2: forward to it. A great event if the omni Scott

539
00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 2: still Montelucia.

540
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:41,440
Speaker 3: Sure is that like the outdoor activity?

541
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:44,080
Speaker 6: Oh yeah, there's no snakes right and all the plenty

542
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:46,520
Speaker 6: of snakes, plenty of hiking, horse piping.

543
00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 3: For to go all in.

544
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, bow tie and a hand there you.

545
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:57,440
Speaker 11: Gor This last one, real quick came out yesterday, but

546
00:26:57,560 --> 00:26:58,879
Speaker 11: it was after a show, so we didn't get to

547
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:02,359
Speaker 11: try about it. The fears competition for pay TV customers

548
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:06,400
Speaker 11: YouTube subscribers. They have more options now. So what YouTube

549
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:09,119
Speaker 11: is doing, they're doing a little bit more customization, so

550
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 11: they have lower price channel bundles. Okay, it's starting early

551
00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:13,440
Speaker 11: next year.

552
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:16,480
Speaker 6: Yeah, there's slice. They have so much content at YouTube

553
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:19,720
Speaker 6: that sometimes it's hard to find. And you know, so

554
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:22,520
Speaker 6: you're doing what everybody else does. You just segment the market.

555
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:25,680
Speaker 2: But is it a battle for chun because I know,

556
00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 2: I hate spending that big monthly fee because.

557
00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 6: Yeah, so there again, I just think it's like any

558
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:36,560
Speaker 6: other business and the other consumer product. You're segmenting the market,

559
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:40,160
Speaker 6: you know, and maximize your revenue SOLI, so it plays out,

560
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:42,760
Speaker 6: But I mean YouTube, how much time do people spend

561
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:43,160
Speaker 6: on YouTube?

562
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:44,320
Speaker 7: It's crazy these days.

563
00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 3: That's where they's going in the charts. Here.

564
00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 2: Thank you Robert Fisherman and Moffatson for being with this yesterday.

565
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:54,800
Speaker 2: That was really informative. Lisa Matteo, thank you so much. Now,

566
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:56,760
Speaker 2: do you break now and we'll get the third breakfast.

567
00:27:57,160 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 11: No, that's likely in about two hours.

568
00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 3: Yes, this is a third breakfast thing the newspapers.

569
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

570
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:12,240
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

571
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:15,840
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

572
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:19,959
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

573
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:23,359
Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and

574
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal