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Speaker 1: Live from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound on.

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Speaker 1: We have to have this debate in conference about whether

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Speaker 1: we should be in places like Afghanic death. This towbent

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Speaker 1: has changed. We've got a hold of accountable will see

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Speaker 1: how they governed. Bloomberg Sound On, Politics, Policy and Perspective

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Speaker 1: from DC's top names. Stamfter structural bill or create jobs

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Speaker 1: that we desperately need in this country, good paying jobs.

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Speaker 1: We need to go all out through a green, renewableut

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Speaker 1: economy and all of the infrastructure to make that happen.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. Now

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Speaker 1: it gets real. For all the big ideas and happy

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Speaker 1: talk about infrastructure spending the Biden agenda, lawmakers begin the

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Speaker 1: debate over how to pay for it, or at least

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Speaker 1: well some of it through a proposed hike in the

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Speaker 1: capital gains tax that would be paired with a higher

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Speaker 1: corporate tax rate, but not if Corporate America has anything

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Speaker 1: to say of about it. We're gonna look at the

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Speaker 1: looming lobbying blitz coming up with Eric Newhouse, who handles

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Speaker 1: policy and government relations at the National Association of Manufacturers

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Speaker 1: and as the House also tackles annual defense spending. That's

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Speaker 1: starting today two Republicans try to use the withdrawal from

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Speaker 1: Afghanistan against President Biden through the form of legislation. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna talk about that with Bloomberg Government's Jack Fitzpatrick later

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Speaker 1: this hour and the panel today our sound On panel

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Speaker 1: with Democratic strategist Kevin Walling and Jen Kern's Republican strategist

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Speaker 1: former spokesperson for the California Republican Party. Welcome to the

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Speaker 1: Wednesday edition of Bloomberg sound On. Get ready for the ads.

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Speaker 1: After spending the last two weeks focused on Afghanistan, you

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Speaker 1: may have forgotten President Biden's economic agenda, which dominated the summer.

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Speaker 1: Infrastructure the Reconciliation Bill three and a half trillion dollars.

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Speaker 1: Of course, paying for all of it remains a big

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Speaker 1: issue around here. The House Ways and Means Committee, though,

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Speaker 1: is beginning debate on proposed tax hikes in the capital

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Speaker 1: gains tax along with the corporate tax rate. Republicans don't

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Speaker 1: want any part of it, promising an intense lobbying effort

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Speaker 1: and an ad blitz that will mean you hearing a

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Speaker 1: lot more of this. Where the state of our union

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Speaker 1: is watching a tragic foreign policy disaster unfold before our eyes.

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden is going to be the face of the

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Speaker 1: failure of the withdrawal. He is the president right now

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Speaker 1: as is happening. Look at how poorly planned this seems

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Speaker 1: to be. Right now. Political ads on TV and online

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Speaker 1: like that one from the National Republican Senatorial Committee to

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Speaker 1: pair with actual lobby and groups opposing this range from

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Speaker 1: the Chamber of Commerce, to the Business Roundtable to the

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Speaker 1: National Association of Manufacturers. And we're joined by the Association's

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Speaker 1: Eric Newhouse, now senior vice president of Policy and Government

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Speaker 1: Relations at the National Association of Manufacturers. Eric, welcome, You

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Speaker 1: represent some big names, some big companies, from Caterpillar to

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Speaker 1: ex On to Johnson and Johnson. How do you end

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Speaker 1: this whole group play and to make a dent in

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Speaker 1: this debate? Well, thank you for the opportunity to be

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Speaker 1: with you, and I appreciate your time. And let me

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Speaker 1: start with you know, yeah, we absolutely represent those companies

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Speaker 1: who are proud to do so. But the backbone of

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Speaker 1: our membership, our fourteen thousand members are small and medium

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Speaker 1: sized companies. These are you know, mom and pop shops

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Speaker 1: that make something that ends up on something that ends

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Speaker 1: up on a four one fifty or going seven thirty seven.

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Speaker 1: And those small medium manufacturers are really the backbone of

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Speaker 1: our sector and in their stories, their first hand experiences,

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Speaker 1: saying to policymakers on both sides of the aisle, look,

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Speaker 1: the two two thousand seventeen tax bill created jobs, drove

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Speaker 1: wage increases in the manufacturing sector, and drove capital investment

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Speaker 1: in the sector. We need to protect that. Now is

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Speaker 1: not the time to pull that away. Now is not

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Speaker 1: the time to to to basically gut the growth that

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Speaker 1: we're seeing in slow wage growth. And you know, again,

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Speaker 1: the story is very clear to us as we look

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Speaker 1: at this. This isn't about polity. Access is about straight policy.

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Speaker 1: There's a choice policy makers have in Washington. It's going

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Speaker 1: to come to a head in the coming days and

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Speaker 1: coming weeks. Are they four tax increases that are going

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Speaker 1: to put Americans out of work or not? And that's

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Speaker 1: going to be the debate. We recently spoke Eric with

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Speaker 1: the big boss at your association, J Timmins, president of

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Speaker 1: the National Association of Manufacturers, who made clear on this

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Speaker 1: program that manufacturers actually want to see infrastructure become law.

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Speaker 1: He said they support the bill, just not by hiking

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Speaker 1: taxes to pay for it. Here's what he said, the

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Speaker 1: reverse of what we just saw over the last three years,

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Speaker 1: where manufacturers invested and hired and and grew their wages.

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Speaker 1: If the corporate texts is increased, then you're going to

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Speaker 1: see all that disappear. And I don't think that's what

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Speaker 1: the president wants. So we've been very clear that we

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Speaker 1: want to see some alternatives, and we think that converse

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Speaker 1: has listened to us and they don't want to risk

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Speaker 1: the manufacturing renaissance that's going on right now in this country.

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Speaker 1: So we're hopeful that whatever the final packages is not

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Speaker 1: going to raise taxes on business. So, Eric, will your

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Speaker 1: approach to this, Will the n a M approach to

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Speaker 1: this include providing alternatives? How do you get to it? Well,

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Speaker 1: you know, on the infrastructure side, we've said the policy makers,

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Speaker 1: you know, look, there's a bunch of different ways you

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Speaker 1: can you can look at paying for infrastructure spending, and

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Speaker 1: into Jay's comments, we're very happy that that, in a

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Speaker 1: bipartisan way, the Senate and hopefully quickly the House are

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Speaker 1: going to move forward with legislation that will provide that

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Speaker 1: infrastructure boost and do it without tax increases. When we

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Speaker 1: get into the reconciliation question three point five shillion dollars,

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Speaker 1: we begin the conversation in a very different way. We say, look,

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Speaker 1: there there's a lot in here. There's a lot that

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Speaker 1: both sides of the aisle want to address and advance

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Speaker 1: in order to make America a better place. Republicans have used,

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Speaker 1: Democrats have used. But where we're focused right now is,

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Speaker 1: you know, the heart of the conversation seems to be

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Speaker 1: about how they going to pay for it in and

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Speaker 1: our argument is very clear on this. You've got a choice.

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Speaker 1: You can raise taxes and put manufacturing workers out of work.

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Speaker 1: You can cut wages, and you can cut investment. That's

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Speaker 1: a mistake. So you know that's a conversation we're having

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Speaker 1: right now, and and and you know, at this point,

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Speaker 1: you know it's been a good conversation with both sides

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Speaker 1: of the aisle. People want to hear us and want

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Speaker 1: to hear our stories. I want to hear our views. So,

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Speaker 1: when you're the senior vice president of policy and government

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Speaker 1: relations at the National Association of Manufacturers, how do you

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Speaker 1: influence the outcome of this debate? Have you begun discussions

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Speaker 1: already with lawmakers. I know you were in the throes

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Speaker 1: of of of a large discussion about the bipart as

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Speaker 1: an infrastructure bill as we get into reconciliation, Now are

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Speaker 1: you hitting lawmakers on the phone? Are you making advertisements?

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Speaker 1: Are you lobbying? All of the above? All the above.

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Speaker 1: I mean, this is a conversation that we're going to

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Speaker 1: have in with anyone anywhere, any time we possibly can.

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Speaker 1: And that's going to be a mixture of grassroots grasstops,

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Speaker 1: digital advertisements, um traditional kind of you know, media plays

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Speaker 1: I'm anticipating will be involved with some advertising efforts, and

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Speaker 1: the traditional kind of shoe leather lobby and if you will,

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Speaker 1: and in in really driving that is really two different things.

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Speaker 1: One of the very clear story and facts that we

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Speaker 1: have that back up the argument that tax increases cost jobs.

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Speaker 1: And the other argument we're going to make is in

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Speaker 1: really going back to my earlier comments about the small

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Speaker 1: and meeting sized companies, their stories can move policymakers. You know,

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Speaker 1: you can break through a lot of a lot of

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Speaker 1: Washington nonsense and just buzz and get get to the

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Speaker 1: real heart of an issue. When the manufacturer with thirty

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Speaker 1: five employees comes to a policy maker and says book,

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Speaker 1: I live in your district, I live in your town,

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Speaker 1: I live in your state. Let me tell you what

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Speaker 1: this really means for our community. And and that story

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Speaker 1: you can really have an impact on policymakers because again

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Speaker 1: it breaks through a lot of the nonsense in town.

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Speaker 1: Does the association support child care funding and expansion of

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Speaker 1: medicare some of the other things that we've heard about

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Speaker 1: in this reconciliation bill, free community college, of universal pre k.

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Speaker 1: Are you cherry picking any of these items? Because the

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Speaker 1: lower these tax rates end up, the less will end

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Speaker 1: up in the bill, the fewer number of initiatives will

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Speaker 1: end up in that final bill. Well, I think that's

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Speaker 1: a it's a good question. I think that's a question

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Speaker 1: more for policymakers and for us. Mean we will get

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Speaker 1: it to the lens of the manufacturing agenda is about

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Speaker 1: competitiveness for manufacturing. There is about job broth for manufacturing

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Speaker 1: and job retention and wages for manufacturing. Policymakers can have

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Speaker 1: a debate around what they want to do on on

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Speaker 1: universal health care, what they want to do with expansion

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Speaker 1: of medicare, for for dental care and vision and all

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Speaker 1: the things are on the table here we're focused on

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Speaker 1: the main thing, and the main thing for us is

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Speaker 1: making sure manufacturers have the ability to be competitive in

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Speaker 1: a global environment. And I know that that that gets

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Speaker 1: thrown around a lot and doesn't mean a lot to

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Speaker 1: a lot of people. Let me try to kind of

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Speaker 1: clarify what I really mean by that. Competitive competitiveness internationally

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Speaker 1: is really a conversation of where the next dollar investment

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Speaker 1: is going to go. Is it going to go to

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Speaker 1: United States or is it going to go somewhere else.

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Speaker 1: And our mission is to make sure that we make

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Speaker 1: the United States as competitive as possible, to make sure

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Speaker 1: that the next dollar invested in manufacturing is invested here.

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Speaker 1: Democrats want to spend three and a half trillion. That's

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Speaker 1: what we hear on reconciliation. That's beyond the one point

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Speaker 1: two trillion of the BI part is an infrastructure ability,

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Speaker 1: even though that's not all new money. We don't need

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Speaker 1: to go through all of that. But we're in the

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Speaker 1: multi trillions of dollars here. The tax hikes that are

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Speaker 1: being proposed would pay for a little more than one trillion.

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Speaker 1: Based on the number crunching here at Bloomberg, it was

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Speaker 1: a little more than one point one trillion dollars. How

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Speaker 1: much does the National Association of Manufacturers plan to spend

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Speaker 1: to slow this down or to lower those numbers. Well,

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Speaker 1: I'm obviously not in a position to give you a

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Speaker 1: specific number on that, but I will say this is

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Speaker 1: going to take our full focus, in our full way.

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Speaker 1: I mean, this is, you know, in addition to making

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Speaker 1: sure that bipartisan infrastructure bill is enacted, this is this

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Speaker 1: is the main thing, and this is going to have

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Speaker 1: our entire focus in order to make sure that our

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Speaker 1: members have the ability to continue to create and maintain

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Speaker 1: those jobs. And and you know, it's it's We've got

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Speaker 1: a lot of members that understand this and and want

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Speaker 1: to be involved and have been great partners so far

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Speaker 1: in this process, and I know they will moving forward.

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Speaker 1: You know, we're bloomberg. I had to ask you for

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Speaker 1: a number here, Eric, but I will point out the

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Speaker 1: fact that you've done a lot of research on this

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Speaker 1: that a percent corporate tax rate, as you pointed out,

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Speaker 1: would would cost the economy one billion one million. That's

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Speaker 1: with an m one million jobs in the first two years.

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Speaker 1: But even a lower rate, you say, would lead to

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Speaker 1: massive job loss. Is there a number you're comfortable with no,

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Speaker 1: so let me you know, let me. We began the

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Speaker 1: conversation in two thousands, fifteen, sixteen, and seventeen, leading into

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Speaker 1: what you know was enacted in the lawn two thousand

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Speaker 1: seventeen in the TASH Reform Bill, arguing for fift Now, look,

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Speaker 1: we came down from thirty five to one, making dance again.

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Speaker 1: Changes on the scorps side. So our view is, you know,

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Speaker 1: one gets us roughly on average with our competitors in

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Speaker 1: the O E C. D. We don't think negotiating with

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Speaker 1: ourselves to say, well, if you go to twenty two,

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Speaker 1: it's okay to lose this many manufacturing jobs and to

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Speaker 1: slow growth this far, but if you go to twenty three,

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Speaker 1: it's no, we're not We're not having that conversation. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: they in best case scenario, they go down. Now, I

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Speaker 1: know that's not part of the conversation right now, but

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Speaker 1: the conversation in Washington music be about lowering rates, not rapist.

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Speaker 1: Eric Newhouse, Senior vice president Policy government Relations at the

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Speaker 1: National Association of Manufacturers, Thanks for taking that walk with me.

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Speaker 1: We assemble the panel next. I'm Joe Matthew. Stay here.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomer. You're listening to Bloomberg you Sound on

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Speaker 1: with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. We are watching the

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Speaker 1: calendar as lawmakers begin the work debating President Biden's economic

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Speaker 1: agenda and the proposed tax hikes that will help pay

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Speaker 1: for it. As we assemble our sound on panel to

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Speaker 1: talk about it now with Democratic strategists former Biden campaign

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Speaker 1: surrogate Kevin Walling now at h G Creative and Republican

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Speaker 1: strategist Jen Kerns, former spokesperson for the California Republican Party.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to both of you. Jen, you heard my talk

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Speaker 1: just now. I think with Eric Newhouse from the National

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Speaker 1: Association of Realtors, well, the lobbying and ad effort work

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Speaker 1: to slow this debate or even change the direction of

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Speaker 1: this debate on hiking taxes or as the horse already

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Speaker 1: left the barn, Well, I think it does. You know,

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Speaker 1: historically it shows, especially as we're approaching mid term election,

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Speaker 1: so where the Democratic Party in this election in season

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Speaker 1: is going to be very concerned about having a blood

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Speaker 1: bath at the polls as the current polling is showing

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Speaker 1: could very well happen. Uh, it will be a great

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Speaker 1: import to the White House, and to the Democratic Party, Uh,

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Speaker 1: to to pay attention to that fight. Um, and we

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Speaker 1: know that television ads and social media ads and lobby

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Speaker 1: and campaigns do bring that home to roost as people

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Speaker 1: look ahead to the mid terms. What's your thought on this, Kevin.

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Speaker 1: The Reconciliation Bill, as it has been described, is essentially

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Speaker 1: beyond the bipart as an infrastructure bill already passed the Senate,

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Speaker 1: is essentially Joe Biden's campaign promises all rolled up into

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Speaker 1: one when it comes to social spending, when it comes

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Speaker 1: to childcare, when it comes to human infrastructure, as we

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Speaker 1: have come to call it. How much of an interference

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Speaker 1: will this new effort be in making that law. Well,

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Speaker 1: so it's a good question. It's good to join you,

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Speaker 1: uh and Jen. Obviously, this is going to be the

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Speaker 1: most intense September, and you've covered a lot of Congress

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Speaker 1: at Joe that we've probably ever seen in recent memory. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: with the backdrop of this Reconciliation bill, as you rightly

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Speaker 1: point out, the presidents main focus in terms of human infrastructure,

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Speaker 1: childhood tax credits, funding for schools, all of the kind

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Speaker 1: of humanity aspects of that work. Obviously, the leadership of

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Speaker 1: the House and the Senate Democratic leadership has set September fifteen,

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Speaker 1: halfway through the month as UH, the deadline for their

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Speaker 1: chairs to finish working up that bill, that reconciliation bill. UH.

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Speaker 1: And then obviously you have the backdrop of the Senate

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Speaker 1: past by partisan infrastructure bill with it, that kind of

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Speaker 1: temporary but but somewhat concrete deadline in September seven, and

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Speaker 1: that was obviously the deal negotiated or announced by Speaker

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Speaker 1: Pelosi and those moderate holdouts. Again, all this with the

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Speaker 1: backdrop of the death ceiling. Now the complications of Afghanistan.

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Speaker 1: You saw the Chairman of the Armed Services Community the

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Speaker 1: House of Smith kind of going pretty strongly against as

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Speaker 1: a Democratic, pretty strongly against the administration, calling for some transparency,

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Speaker 1: likely some hearings. UM. So obviously there's there's a lot

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Speaker 1: going on, a lot of shifting dynamics with all this happening,

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Speaker 1: and with the hurricane, with the remnants that we're dealing

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Speaker 1: with now, the President's announced trip that he will be

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Speaker 1: there later in the week. Yeah, it's a madhouse, Kevin.

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Speaker 1: But what's the Democratic pushback on this whole thing. We've

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Speaker 1: We've got the industry just now telling us that corporate

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Speaker 1: tax rate means the loss of a million jobs. That's

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Speaker 1: a pretty tough argument. Well, sure, And the longer that

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Speaker 1: the bill goes on in terms of negotiations, obviously, the

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Speaker 1: President has said he wants it's fully paid for. He

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Speaker 1: doesn't want to add to the debts. So that complicates

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Speaker 1: things obviously when you have to have those paid force

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Speaker 1: and running into the headwinds of UH the industry, whether

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Speaker 1: it be the interview that you just conducted or other

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Speaker 1: UH corporate interests like the Chamber and things like that.

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Speaker 1: So the longer this goes on, the more complicated it

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Speaker 1: becomes in terms of that specific reconciliation package. For sure.

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Speaker 1: So Jen hearns, what's the answer, less spending or different

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Speaker 1: pay force. Well, look, I think you just categorized that

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Speaker 1: this is a very complicated, uphill battle for the Democratic

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Speaker 1: Party and for the White House. UM, speed kills and

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Speaker 1: these sort of things. As the administration UH looks to

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Speaker 1: try to draw the attention away from the crisis in Afghanistan, UM,

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Speaker 1: I think it would be complicated to get Americans attentions

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Speaker 1: focused on this. The jobs loss UH numbers will be

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Speaker 1: the most compelling to bring to the attention of the

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Speaker 1: American people. Uh. You know, the American people are still

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Speaker 1: reeling from the COVID nineteen crisis, and most importantly the

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Speaker 1: you know in Democrat led states and the Democrat led cities,

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Speaker 1: those big blue cities like New York City, Los Angeles

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Speaker 1: where people were harder hit because of the Democrat policies

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Speaker 1: on closures. Um, we had a significant number, we had

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Speaker 1: millions of people impacted. In fact, one of the numbers

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Speaker 1: I'm watching, uh, in relation to jobs, where it would

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Speaker 1: really staying further is two million women left the workforce

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Speaker 1: over the last twelve months due to the COVID nineteen

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Speaker 1: crisis and in doing lockdown. So certainly, uh, those who

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Speaker 1: are fighting this tax hike, I think the argument of

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Speaker 1: more jobs loss would be the most compelling one at

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Speaker 1: the ballot box. Speed kills, says Jen Kerns. Jen, you're

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Speaker 1: not the first person who said that to me today.

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Speaker 1: What's your answer to that? In our last minute here,

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Speaker 1: Kevin Walling, I remember, uh, just a couple of weeks ago,

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Speaker 1: Josh Gottheimer, who was holding up this whole thing. Moderate

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Speaker 1: Democrat in the House with an op ed the top

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Speaker 1: line said time kills deals it's a good question, Joe.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think Jen partly is making the case

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Speaker 1: for this Human Infrastructure bill. You know, she talks about

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Speaker 1: the two million women that have lost but we're left

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Speaker 1: in the workplace because of COVID. The vast majority of

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Speaker 1: that is because they don't have adequate childhood care and

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Speaker 1: coverage for their their kids at home because of whatever

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Speaker 1: dynamics are at home. So putting more resources in terms

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Speaker 1: of billions of dollars in terms of childhood care and

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Speaker 1: early childhood education is one of the reasons to push

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Speaker 1: push that the administration will push forward and hopefully pass

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Speaker 1: this Human Infrastructure bill. Kens get me back with us.

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Speaker 1: I agree with Kevin, except on the solution. Women don't

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Speaker 1: want government funded programs. They just want to be able

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Speaker 1: to get out there. All right, I'm glad you got that, Engen.

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Speaker 1: They'll be back there with us for the full hour.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna talk again with the panel a bit later on.

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Speaker 1: Up next though, the House tackles the annual defense budget.

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Speaker 1: We'll talk about it with Bloomberg Government's Jack Fitzpatrick. How

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Speaker 1: Joe Matthew, This is Bloomberg Broadcasting live from our nation's capital.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg to New York, Bloomberg eleven, Frio to San Francisco,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg nine sixty to the country, Sirius XM General one

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Speaker 1: and around the globe, the Bloomberg Business app. Then Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg sond On with Joe Matthew.

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Speaker 1: It's time to pay for our defense. We do this

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Speaker 1: every year through the Defense Authorization Acts, and the House

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Speaker 1: Arm Services Committee is in that debate right now with

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Speaker 1: a pile of Republican amendments aimed at hanging the Afghanistan

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Speaker 1: withdrawal around Joe Biden's neck straight through the mid terms.

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Speaker 1: We'll talk about it ahead with Bloomberg Government's Jack Fitzpatrick

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Speaker 1: and the broader effort by Republicans to make this a

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Speaker 1: painful mid term election season. The minds at Bloomberg Government

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Speaker 1: with a great peace on the terminal today the headline

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Speaker 1: Republicans seek mid term advantage from Afghanistan withdrawal. Indeed, as

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Speaker 1: I read, America's withdrawal from Afghanistan is already playing a

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Speaker 1: role in Republican efforts to win back control of the

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Speaker 1: House and the Senate, with the GOP campaign committees highlighting

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Speaker 1: news coverage of the chaotic scenes of the Kabbal airport

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Speaker 1: and videos and other passaging. We got quite a dose

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Speaker 1: of this from the House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy, who

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Speaker 1: spoke yesterday here. He is never in my lifetime would

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Speaker 1: I ever believe America would have an administration knowingly make

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Speaker 1: a decision to leave Americans behind, whereas just two weeks

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Speaker 1: ago the President promised this nation that he would not

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Speaker 1: leave until every single American was out. And here we

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Speaker 1: are with a debate beginning around the Defense Authorization Act,

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Speaker 1: the how the House Armed Services Committee starting that markup today,

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Speaker 1: and we're joined by Jack Fitzpatrick of Bloomberg Government and

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Speaker 1: this very program Bloomberg Sound On. It's great to have

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Speaker 1: you here. Jack. I'd like to ask you just to

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Speaker 1: start about the Defense Authorization Act, and we can go

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Speaker 1: a little bit more broadly in what Republican efforts are here.

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Speaker 1: But this is an important exercise annually to set spending

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Speaker 1: for the Pentagon, and President Biden proposing a little over

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Speaker 1: seven hundred billion dollars. Republicans and even some Democrats in

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Speaker 1: that committee say they want more, adding another twenty five billion,

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Speaker 1: which I understand is likely to pass. But Republican lawmakers

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Speaker 1: are adding dozens of amendments that are specific to Afghanistan,

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Speaker 1: including a requirement, for instance, to detail the decision to

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Speaker 1: leave Bogram Air Base. How is this all going to

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Speaker 1: come together? They get all this done tonight early tomorrow morning. Yeah, this, uh,

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Speaker 1: this kind of markup takes a very long time. There

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Speaker 1: were more than seven hundred amendments filed. A bunch of

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Speaker 1: those will get winnowed out because they're they're out of

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Speaker 1: order for one reason or another. I will say overall,

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Speaker 1: there has been discussion about Afghanistan, but I'm a little

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Speaker 1: surprised that it hasn't dominated the debate and turned it

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Speaker 1: quite as partisan as you might imagine in this kind

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Speaker 1: of mark up. As you noted, there was the push

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Speaker 1: for more defense money twenty four billion above what the

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Speaker 1: president wanted. There actually were seventeen Democrats who signed on too,

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Speaker 1: ended up voting were that along with the Republicans on

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Speaker 1: the committee. So we actually saw a little bit of

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Speaker 1: bipartisan agreement on defense policy. But yes, in a broader sense,

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Speaker 1: as we look towards the campaign trail, the statements you're

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Speaker 1: hearing from Republican leadership, Afghanistan is the the number one

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Speaker 1: thing they're they're looking to hit Democrats with uh and

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Speaker 1: I don't really see necessarily an end to that at

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Speaker 1: the topic of conversation in this markup, and it's going

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Speaker 1: to be significant as they go forward with other bills

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Speaker 1: relating to the military. How come the partisan Afghanistan stuff,

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Speaker 1: as you point out, isn't isn't dominating this debate. I mean,

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Speaker 1: we've got fifty amendments in a Republican leadership that wants

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Speaker 1: to drive this home, probably because there's so much in

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Speaker 1: this bill. I hate to be anticlimactic, but there are

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Speaker 1: so many different things they're they're working on, and they

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Speaker 1: had disagreed for months over exactly how much just what

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Speaker 1: the basic top line spending figures should be or defend issues.

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Speaker 1: That is a significant fight. It's going to continue to

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Speaker 1: be a significant fight. There are other issues they're working on,

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Speaker 1: just on contracts, on contract transparency. It's hard to even

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Speaker 1: sum up the number of things they're working on. So

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Speaker 1: there's no one thing that is dominating this bill other

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Speaker 1: than when you get into the Defense Authorization and later

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Speaker 1: into defense appropriations, just the idea of how much are

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Speaker 1: we going to spend on the military and that ties

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Speaker 1: into the Afghanistan issue, the broader history of the US

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Speaker 1: in the Middle East and and our our issues with that.

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Speaker 1: That's a huge question. Uh. And that's going to be

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Speaker 1: a very very difficult one to for them to sort out.

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Speaker 1: And yes, Afghanistan has sort of worked its way into

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Speaker 1: being one of the central parts of that debate. But

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Speaker 1: there are so many difficult things for them to get

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Speaker 1: through on defense authorization and actually funding the military. Uh,

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Speaker 1: that it's it's hard to pin it down even on

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Speaker 1: one major issue that is becoming a huge campaign too. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: there's real work to be done here. More broadly though, Jack,

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Speaker 1: And to the point of the Bloomberg government story, seeking

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Speaker 1: mid term advantage from Afghanistan withdraw Republicans of course, Uh.

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Speaker 1: The National Republican Senatorial Committee calls it Joe Biden's agenda

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Speaker 1: of abandonment. We're going to hear that a lot, aren't we. Yes. Uh.

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Speaker 1: If it's not that slogan, it'll be something else. As

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Speaker 1: long as there are probably any people, certainly any Americans

432
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:32,080
Speaker 1: in the last we've heard was it was around one

433
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:35,480
Speaker 1: or two hundred American citizens left in the US who

434
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:38,080
Speaker 1: wanted to leave. As long as there's anybody there who

435
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:40,199
Speaker 1: wants to leave. This is not going to be a

436
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:45,120
Speaker 1: story that goes away for President Biden or any congressional

437
00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:48,600
Speaker 1: Democrats on the campaign trail. The public polling, of course,

438
00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:51,080
Speaker 1: is a little mixed that he has not gotten good

439
00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:54,920
Speaker 1: grades for how he's handled this, but it's we're still

440
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:57,000
Speaker 1: at a majority. If you look at the Pew Research

441
00:24:57,000 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 1: poll that just came out yesterday, a majority still agree

442
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:03,760
Speaker 1: is generally with the idea of leaving Afghanistan. So how

443
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:06,400
Speaker 1: does this play out a year plus from now. It's

444
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:09,600
Speaker 1: difficult to tell, but it's negative enough right now. So

445
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 1: it's it's an albatross for Democrats currently well as usually

446
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:15,320
Speaker 1: you're pointing me right to the place I want to

447
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 1: go here, Jack, That's that's interesting to me. So basically, Republicans,

448
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:24,359
Speaker 1: knowing Americans have a short memory, knowing Americans wanted to

449
00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:27,720
Speaker 1: get out of Afghanistan, have decided to remind Americans for

450
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:31,359
Speaker 1: the next year about the way this withdrawal went. Yeah,

451
00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:35,160
Speaker 1: because really there are two issues here. One, you can

452
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:38,600
Speaker 1: agree with the majority of Americans who say it's the

453
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:41,680
Speaker 1: right idea to pull out of Afghanistan, but you can

454
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:46,480
Speaker 1: still blame President Biden and his administration for the really

455
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:49,960
Speaker 1: messy way they did it and the apparent lack of

456
00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:52,280
Speaker 1: information on the ground about how this was gonna go.

457
00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 1: We heard from the President, we were from the Secretary

458
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:56,399
Speaker 1: of State, We heard from a number of people saying

459
00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 1: it does not appear that the Taliban is going to

460
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:03,480
Speaker 1: in idiately take over, which they then did. Uh So,

461
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:06,160
Speaker 1: the question then is how much of a long term

462
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:08,480
Speaker 1: issue politically? The question is how much of a long

463
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 1: term issue is that? Does that stick with Democrats for

464
00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:14,680
Speaker 1: a year plus or does that fade away and the

465
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:18,520
Speaker 1: broader issue of pulling out of the Middle East become

466
00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:21,800
Speaker 1: four front on voters mind find the story Bloomberg dot

467
00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:25,880
Speaker 1: com or on the terminal Bloomberg Government's Jack Fitzpatrick part

468
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:28,240
Speaker 1: of the family here at sound On. We appreciate it.

469
00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:30,760
Speaker 1: As always. Let's get back to the panel. Next, we'll

470
00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:33,359
Speaker 1: check traffic and the markets along the way. Kevin Walling

471
00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:36,639
Speaker 1: and Jen Kerns are coming up. I'm Joe Matthew. This

472
00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:42,440
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg you Sound On with

473
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:48,200
Speaker 1: Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. You know they say members

474
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:51,040
Speaker 1: of Congress never stop planting after all, Well, in the House.

475
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:53,400
Speaker 1: At least they have to face voters every two years.

476
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:56,720
Speaker 1: Republicans planned to use the next fourteen months, as we

477
00:26:56,880 --> 00:27:00,880
Speaker 1: just discussed with Bloomberg Government's Jack Fitzpatrick, to hit President

478
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:05,960
Speaker 1: Biden and Democrats at large over the Afghanistan withdrawal, something

479
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,800
Speaker 1: we heard more about today by General Mark Milley, the

480
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:12,679
Speaker 1: chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff be in the

481
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:17,200
Speaker 1: military will approach this with humility, transparency, and candor. There

482
00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 1: are many tactical, operational, and strategic lessons to be learned.

483
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:26,200
Speaker 1: As the National Republican Senatorial Committee calls it Joe Biden's

484
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:29,720
Speaker 1: Agenda of Abandonment. We bring back the panel with Democratic

485
00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:32,919
Speaker 1: strategists and former Biden campaign surrogate Kevin Walling now at

486
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:37,120
Speaker 1: h G Creative and Republican strategist Jen Kurrn's former spokesperson

487
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:40,320
Speaker 1: for the California Republican Party. Kevin, I'll start with you

488
00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:42,720
Speaker 1: this time. Does the Democratic Party have an equally strong

489
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:45,920
Speaker 1: message to push back on this the next year? Yeah?

490
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 1: I think we do. Uh. You know, obviously with the

491
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:51,440
Speaker 1: rescue package that the Democrats single handily passed in Congress,

492
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:54,440
Speaker 1: delivering all those benefits in terms of the childhood tax

493
00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:58,000
Speaker 1: credit from middle class families. Obviously hopefully passage of the

494
00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:02,120
Speaker 1: by Person Infrastructure Bill as Human Infrastructure Bill. Uh. And

495
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:05,159
Speaker 1: we know in midterm elections, like most elections, people care

496
00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:08,359
Speaker 1: about domestic issues more than they care about international issues

497
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 1: aside from you know, the election following nine eleven. So

498
00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 1: you know, I think Democrats have a strong message in

499
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 1: terms of the domestic focus on combating COVID, economic relief,

500
00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:20,800
Speaker 1: middle class tax cuts that they can run on. Now

501
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:23,159
Speaker 1: you know, the cards are set against Democrats. Gonna be

502
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:26,080
Speaker 1: an uphill battle. You know, Republicans just need five seats

503
00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:28,240
Speaker 1: in the House. We have a fifty fifties flot in

504
00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:31,720
Speaker 1: the Senate. We know that the majority of key districts

505
00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:35,440
Speaker 1: are that will be you know drawn, are in Republican

506
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:39,760
Speaker 1: hands in terms of states like Florida and Texas and uh,

507
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:42,720
Speaker 1: you know, North Carolina and Georgia and others. So uh,

508
00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 1: you know, the stacks are you know, fairly well stacked

509
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 1: against the Democrats. But I think they have a core

510
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:51,480
Speaker 1: message that will resonate with voters in in less than

511
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:54,920
Speaker 1: four and thirty or so days. And Republicans have history

512
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:58,240
Speaker 1: on their side as well. Here as the Minority Party,

513
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:01,880
Speaker 1: Jen Kerns talk to us about the strategy though to

514
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 1: be hammering on Afghanistan for the next fourteen months, knowing

515
00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:09,280
Speaker 1: that Americans wanted to end the war in Afghanistan. Does

516
00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 1: this have staying power? Well, that is the five hundred

517
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:17,400
Speaker 1: million dollar question We're we're going to find out next year.

518
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:20,480
Speaker 1: Of the look, it depends on how long this day

519
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:22,760
Speaker 1: is in the news cycle. And as you mentioned there

520
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:26,880
Speaker 1: before the break, how how many people in America are

521
00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 1: still stranded in Afghanistan who want to get out. How

522
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:32,840
Speaker 1: long does that stay in the news cycle. UM. There

523
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 1: are some other contributing factors we know for mid terms,

524
00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:39,360
Speaker 1: as you mentioned there, the opposition party usually wins in

525
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:43,480
Speaker 1: the first term. UH, in the mid term contest of

526
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 1: the first term of a White House UM, with the

527
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 1: exception of George W. Bush, where foreign policy did play

528
00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:53,760
Speaker 1: a role in that. George W. Bush actually benefited from

529
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:57,000
Speaker 1: his management of the war on Terror UM. Just one

530
00:29:57,080 --> 00:30:00,640
Speaker 1: year after the nine eleven attacks. UM, the first mid

531
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 1: term elections for W. Bush actually produced games of about

532
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:07,920
Speaker 1: eight Republicans in the House and two in the Senate,

533
00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:12,400
Speaker 1: enough to take back control of Congress. But that is

534
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 1: very rare. Um, you look at some other examples through history. UM,

535
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 1: George H. W. Bush was flying high on his foreign

536
00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:24,560
Speaker 1: policy success. Uh. The the foreign policy was ranked about

537
00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:28,800
Speaker 1: six times more important than his economic policy performance after

538
00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:33,640
Speaker 1: the go for But then that economic news snuck in

539
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 1: and is at now no new tax pledges and was

540
00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 1: thrown back in his space, and that was flipped on

541
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:43,080
Speaker 1: its head. There certainly is enough time for this to

542
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:45,360
Speaker 1: get flipped on its head. I think there are three

543
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 1: factors that played for the mid terms quickly, Uh, the economy,

544
00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 1: foreign policies we've just discussed, and domestic policy. And by

545
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:57,320
Speaker 1: domestic policy, I'm not even referring to the infrastructure bill

546
00:30:57,400 --> 00:31:01,000
Speaker 1: and taxes and jobs, although that place a role. Um.

547
00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:03,320
Speaker 1: I travel the country a lot, and I hear from

548
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:07,040
Speaker 1: people they are upset about the social domestic policy that

549
00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 1: the progressive Biden White House is put into play, a

550
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 1: critical race theory, transgenders in in girl blocker rooms, that

551
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:17,600
Speaker 1: competing against girls for scholarships, and all of the things

552
00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 1: you're probably very glad you don't have to talk about

553
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:23,720
Speaker 1: on business radio, but those are going to be about

554
00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 1: a third of the conversation. So the foreign policy goes

555
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 1: against Biden at this point, the domestic social policies go

556
00:31:30,800 --> 00:31:34,800
Speaker 1: against Biden. So I think it's really that magic card. Uh,

557
00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:37,760
Speaker 1: that that magic card really is the economic news over

558
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 1: the next fourteen months. You'd be surprised that we talk

559
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:42,720
Speaker 1: about around here sometimes, Jen, But how do you connect

560
00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:45,560
Speaker 1: the dots if they hang, if we're focusing on Afghanistan

561
00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:48,040
Speaker 1: with regard to that approach, how do you connect the

562
00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 1: dots to members of the House. It's not like they

563
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:54,880
Speaker 1: were legislating around that withdrawal, or is there a suggestion

564
00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:59,880
Speaker 1: that they were absent in not legislating it. Well, look,

565
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:03,479
Speaker 1: you you could certainly use the absentia. You could certainly

566
00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:07,240
Speaker 1: use their endorsement of Joe Biden in the presidential election.

567
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 1: You know, in some regards, uh, you know, people are saying, well,

568
00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 1: we never knew that this would happen. Well, you kind

569
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:17,240
Speaker 1: of did. You were electing a man who was vice

570
00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:21,120
Speaker 1: president during the Obama administration when they had a dismal

571
00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:25,280
Speaker 1: Arab spring. So um. In some terms of foreign policy,

572
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:28,360
Speaker 1: you do know what their record is in draw downs

573
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:32,520
Speaker 1: in the Middle East. Happened in Tripoli, Uh, it happened

574
00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:35,720
Speaker 1: in ben Gasby, it happened. Uh. You know when yeomen

575
00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 1: fell and became a rogue state. So, um, there are

576
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 1: some some little points in history where we can refer

577
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:45,640
Speaker 1: back to. But again that that number, I think that

578
00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:49,840
Speaker 1: that is a very precious needle to thread. Right. The

579
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:54,840
Speaker 1: American people majority supported leaving Afghanistan. I don't think anyone

580
00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:56,640
Speaker 1: thought that we should be there for the next fourty

581
00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:59,480
Speaker 1: or fifty years. But the real key was how it

582
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:02,280
Speaker 1: was done. And I think, um, as we'll see some

583
00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 1: congressional hearings come out over the next fourteen months, that

584
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:09,880
Speaker 1: could truly impact the way that Biden is seen in

585
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:12,520
Speaker 1: the two mid terms and the way that those who

586
00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 1: supported him in the last presidential election might have that

587
00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:18,920
Speaker 1: hung around their next for two terms. Well to hear

588
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:22,040
Speaker 1: your reaction to all of that, Kevin Walling, are our

589
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:25,600
Speaker 1: Republicans really going to be voting on on transgender bathrooms

590
00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 1: and critical race theory in another year? Yeah, it's a

591
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:31,560
Speaker 1: good question, you know, if that's what Jen saying about

592
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 1: when she is trying around the country's critical race theory

593
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:36,880
Speaker 1: and transgender youth sports, we got to show her better

594
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 1: time out there in America because you know, I think Americans,

595
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:44,120
Speaker 1: as I said before, vote on domestic issues pocketbook issues,

596
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:46,880
Speaker 1: especially in midterms elections. They could give a crap about

597
00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:49,040
Speaker 1: critical race theory for the most part. They could give

598
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:52,240
Speaker 1: a crap about transgender youth when it really isn't an issue.

599
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 1: And again that's all good for party politics and based

600
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 1: support for hardcore Republicans, but that's not what wins elections

601
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:01,520
Speaker 1: in November at all. About stoking fears and all that

602
00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:03,720
Speaker 1: kind of stuff. And that's if that's the campaign Republicans

603
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:06,239
Speaker 1: have to to run to win. They're pretty effective at

604
00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:08,880
Speaker 1: doing that. But I think you're gonna see Democrats campaigning

605
00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:12,239
Speaker 1: on cutting middle class taxes. If you've got kids under

606
00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:14,520
Speaker 1: the age of eighteen, you had more cash in your pockets.

607
00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:17,800
Speaker 1: Democrats want to make that a permanent fixture in Washington,

608
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:20,080
Speaker 1: d c. And Yeah, there will be questions obviously in

609
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:23,719
Speaker 1: transparency with regards to Afghanistan, and should we have hearings, absolutely,

610
00:34:23,719 --> 00:34:27,399
Speaker 1: Should we call into question the intelligence military leadership, Absolutely,

611
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:30,439
Speaker 1: But again focus on domestic issues. Coming out of COVID

612
00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:32,200
Speaker 1: knocked on wood and we're not out of the woods

613
00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:35,359
Speaker 1: there yet. A hundred and sixty thousand new infections every day,

614
00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:38,920
Speaker 1: over thirteen hundred or so Americans dying. Nine of the

615
00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:42,400
Speaker 1: ten states that we're seeing this largest increase our states

616
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:44,800
Speaker 1: that voted for Donald Trump. Not to put party politics

617
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:47,560
Speaker 1: on the COVID case, but I think there's a real

618
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:51,240
Speaker 1: strong case that Democrats will make, especially during this crisis

619
00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 1: that's still ongoing with COVID. We're not out of the

620
00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:55,280
Speaker 1: woods yet. It's not every day. I have the former

621
00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:58,279
Speaker 1: spokesperson for the California Republican Party on the line, and

622
00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:00,840
Speaker 1: again that is Jen Kern's our republ we can strategist

623
00:35:00,840 --> 00:35:02,600
Speaker 1: on the panel today. I'd like to ask you both

624
00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:05,720
Speaker 1: about the recall election in California because it is looming

625
00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:09,600
Speaker 1: and we understand that Gavin Newsom, of course, Governor Gavin Newsom,

626
00:35:09,680 --> 00:35:13,520
Speaker 1: who's career could be in jeopardy right now, is looking

627
00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:16,879
Speaker 1: at polling numbers and finding out that not everyone even

628
00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:19,839
Speaker 1: knows there is a recall election coming. And so there's

629
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:23,239
Speaker 1: another ad spending blitz that's going to be hitting California

630
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:25,400
Speaker 1: in just a moment. Vote to Latino has a million

631
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:29,400
Speaker 1: dollar add by coming here, Jen Kerns, what's your take

632
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:32,760
Speaker 1: on this? Do people actually know there's a special election

633
00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 1: on the fourteenth of September. Well, most California is like

634
00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:40,360
Speaker 1: Most Americans are just trying to survive at this point,

635
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:44,279
Speaker 1: having suffered through the COVID lockdowns at the hands of

636
00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 1: Gavin Newsom. But those who do have a strong voter

637
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:51,040
Speaker 1: intend to be they have strong feelings about it, and

638
00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:54,320
Speaker 1: those were the over one point for a million people

639
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:57,880
Speaker 1: who signed the petition for recall. Um, if that level

640
00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:01,479
Speaker 1: of intensity per sit through Uptumber fourteenth, which I think

641
00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:04,040
Speaker 1: that it will, Uh, Gavinuson is going to have a

642
00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:06,719
Speaker 1: very difficult time at the ballot box. Um. You know,

643
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:10,400
Speaker 1: Gavin is one of those politicians who has done a

644
00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:14,359
Speaker 1: lot of things over the decades to serve himself. Um.

645
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:17,520
Speaker 1: He has not really been a party builder so to speak.

646
00:36:17,560 --> 00:36:19,840
Speaker 1: You know, he had to step aside for example in

647
00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:22,640
Speaker 1: two and let Jerry Brown, who was very beloved in

648
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:25,600
Speaker 1: the Democratic Party runs. He also sort of stepped aside

649
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:28,040
Speaker 1: and let Kamala Harris run for U S. Senate. So

650
00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:31,600
Speaker 1: Gavin isn't really this like died in the world democratic

651
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:34,880
Speaker 1: hero out there in a way that you know, Jerry

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00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:37,880
Speaker 1: Brown and Kamala Harris were in the state of California. However,

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00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:41,279
Speaker 1: it is very tough to beat Gavin Newsom. Um, I

654
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:44,879
Speaker 1: think I'm the only press secretary Republican or Democrat who

655
00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:47,640
Speaker 1: has ever beaten Gavin Newsom as the ballot box in

656
00:36:47,680 --> 00:36:51,920
Speaker 1: his twenty eight years of political career. It's very difficult

657
00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:54,800
Speaker 1: to do. He is a political Houdini. He always pulls

658
00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:57,640
Speaker 1: out at victory at the last minute. But I think

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00:36:57,760 --> 00:37:00,560
Speaker 1: the fact that this is the only the sect recall

660
00:37:00,640 --> 00:37:05,440
Speaker 1: in California state history. The first one was Gray Davis

661
00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:08,760
Speaker 1: being taken on by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. We have another

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00:37:08,840 --> 00:37:12,480
Speaker 1: personality in this race, Um Larry Elder, who has sort

663
00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:16,640
Speaker 1: of a Schwarzenegger bomb throwing personality that people like. Um.

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00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:19,800
Speaker 1: The grassroots know him for twenty years. Since they're popular

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00:37:19,840 --> 00:37:22,439
Speaker 1: talk radio books in Los Angeles, they have a very

666
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:27,400
Speaker 1: good shot at doing that. Typically, historically speaking, when Californians

667
00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:30,200
Speaker 1: signed on the dotted line to put a ballot initiative

668
00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:34,600
Speaker 1: on the on the ballot, it typically does succeed. To

669
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:37,080
Speaker 1: my odds for the recall is it's more likely to

670
00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:39,920
Speaker 1: succeed than not. All right? Does you take from Jen Karns,

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00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 1: who was once press secretary for the California Republican Party

672
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:46,480
Speaker 1: thinks as well to Kevin Walling, HD creative Democratic strategist

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00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:49,520
Speaker 1: on the panel. This is Bloomberg sound on. I'm Joe,

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00:37:49,600 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 1: Matthew