Speaker 1: Check it down Man, Now down Man. Thursday morning, January two,
Speaker 1: It is the Beating the Book Podcast Megapod Division Round
Speaker 1: live from the d Our Headquarters. Uh. Quite the crowd
Speaker 1: once again here at the day as we do this
Speaker 1: at thirty a and Pacific. On my left, the vice
Speaker 1: president Operations at Circus Sports, Derek Stephen's conciliary and of
Speaker 1: course half of the odds on show along with them
Speaker 1: all show at Visa. It's Michael Palm. Hello, Michael, good morning.
Speaker 1: Did you enjoy your sausas with muffing with egg and
Speaker 1: hash brown? Delicious? Bad for I didn't know Chris was
Speaker 1: going to be here. Chris, I come every time. That
Speaker 1: might be my last meal, like if they if I'm
Speaker 1: you know, pick your last meal, it could be a
Speaker 1: sausage McMuffin with egg. It's my go to order here
Speaker 1: the morning. That's the voice of Las Vegas, Chris multiple
Speaker 1: Heady Happen contest winner here in Las Vegas at the
Speaker 1: Palms at the Wind back in the day. UH. College
Speaker 1: football last man Standing second and fifth and circu not
Speaker 1: this year but last year. Then this year had the
Speaker 1: nerve to chop for NFL Last Man Standing at stations
Speaker 1: glad to have you here, man, thanks for doing this again.
Speaker 1: It's good to be here. It's good to get out
Speaker 1: of the house and see people. Did I get your
Speaker 1: whole resume down? Did I get that pretty much all
Speaker 1: of it? I don't know. I don't know. Todd Wish
Speaker 1: now from his mom's cork attic in Pittsburgh, PA. How
Speaker 1: you doing, Toddy? Hey, hey, hey, So if I'm in
Speaker 1: Vegas at the end of March or is your Chilly
Speaker 1: is going to be good enough to play tennis? Finally,
Speaker 1: he yeah, it will be okay. There will be lines available.
Speaker 1: And all I will say, folks, is no matter how
Speaker 1: much they inflate the lines on me versus my good
Speaker 1: friend Mikey and Gilly still lay the chalk. I haven't
Speaker 1: played in two years. So there you go. That's the
Speaker 1: that's the issue with that. Um So wait, I have
Speaker 1: a question for Mike and Todd for and Christopher give
Speaker 1: me for for going to the to the board here,
Speaker 1: but what did we do with division round? Do we
Speaker 1: still give three picks? Is that what we did last year?
Speaker 1: So so I don't know what we did, but I'm
Speaker 1: suggesting we go down to two with that. Let's go
Speaker 1: to two picks this week, says the leader. No, I'm
Speaker 1: the leader. Yeah, what do you say? What do you think?
Speaker 1: I don't think he's Oh, I don't know if you
Speaker 1: what you asked? Mike? What's the password here? Who knows?
Speaker 1: What do you say about the podcast? Everybody? Mike? If
Speaker 1: that's the case, he's just trying to run out the funk.
Speaker 1: We should increase it to six picks. I'm thinking I'm
Speaker 1: thinking eight. You got to give a side in total
Speaker 1: on every game. If we go down to two, I'm
Speaker 1: your winner. By the way, I have the best record
Speaker 1: of the bunch. What about next week? Next week? Oh?
Speaker 1: They're still I mean, but you guys can't catch me
Speaker 1: at this point, can you? For what? I'm one game
Speaker 1: behind your one game? I went three and a Yeah,
Speaker 1: but weren't you like distance behind it? I made up
Speaker 1: two and a half games. I must have been three
Speaker 1: and a half games. So what are we doing? Two
Speaker 1: picks is fun? Okay? And uh the teaser? What's the teaser?
Speaker 1: We're very close on? Well, first of all, give all
Speaker 1: the standings then okay, so mikey is twenty seven, twenty
Speaker 1: nine and one. Can we do this in order of
Speaker 1: like like a normal personal lists. Okay, you were eight
Speaker 1: and one, Mikey is twenty seven, twenty nine, and why
Speaker 1: behind what the hell happened? I three and thirty four?
Speaker 1: You're like this, You're like in the FIA feeling better
Speaker 1: about my teaser, Chris, Chris, I had to go off
Speaker 1: of them, otherwise I had no way to come back
Speaker 1: that what happened good strategy, and then the teasers was
Speaker 1: fifty on a second. I was a solid fifty and
Speaker 1: forty in my millions, and the teasers I was. That's
Speaker 1: why it's fifty bad? Mikey, is that bad? Okay? So
Speaker 1: why do you gotta why do you gotta just you
Speaker 1: know whatever? Okay? Teasers? Right now, the records are me
Speaker 1: eleven and eight and the two losers and eight and
Speaker 1: one two losers a half game back now all of
Speaker 1: a sudden eight one Michael Palm and Gilly the iceman,
Speaker 1: who are very condescending. Anyways, that's what it is, and
Speaker 1: teasers is very important, obviously, and that's why I'm gonna
Speaker 1: be all right. So Chris, before we give our thoughts
Speaker 1: on the divisional round games, you just indicated right there
Speaker 1: that you did not have the greatest football season. Ever,
Speaker 1: is it fair to say that it just got real
Speaker 1: scorely this year? With COVID and with late injury reports?
Speaker 1: What would you say was the difference this year? Or
Speaker 1: can you even define such a thing? Oh? I you know,
Speaker 1: for me, you know, I was really unhappy, uh for
Speaker 1: a while, and now I've started to realize I should
Speaker 1: be happy that I'm just hovering around even. I was
Speaker 1: actually up in the night to one in three last
Speaker 1: week and now I'm like right around even, you know,
Speaker 1: trying to hold my head above water. But whatever could
Speaker 1: go seems to have gone wrong this year. I mean it.
Speaker 1: You know, you have to take coin coin toss games
Speaker 1: with stride. I I got a lot of breaks last year,
Speaker 1: and I said that all along. If you don't get lucky,
Speaker 1: you can't have seasons like that. But uh, it's the
Speaker 1: verse this year. So I'm you know, it's just awful,
Speaker 1: uh in that respect. But that's okay. It's you know, hey,
Speaker 1: that's part of gambling. You take that in stride. You
Speaker 1: don't piss a moan about it and you don't whine
Speaker 1: about it, and uh uh but I've fought against that,
Speaker 1: and uh, I believe the metrics are not following suit.
Speaker 1: Uh in most cases the entire season, I'm seeing an
Speaker 1: inverse of generally people that don't fare well in NFL
Speaker 1: having a lot more success. I think the books had
Speaker 1: UH far more bad weekends than in years past. And
Speaker 1: and it's an anomaly. And that's fine. I can live
Speaker 1: with that. If this is gonna be my worst season
Speaker 1: UH in years, and I'm and I'm I can still
Speaker 1: be up for the year. Uh. I can live with
Speaker 1: that because very and it's hard to fight. I mean,
Speaker 1: some people's you know, bad season. This year is really bad.
Speaker 1: And and Roxy Roxborough still said out loud in public,
Speaker 1: he goes, I thought, you know, I used to say
Speaker 1: that no one could beat the NFL, but Las Vegas
Speaker 1: Chris may have proven me wrong. So there it is. Also,
Speaker 1: remember any hundred picks is such a small sample. Side
Speaker 1: people think one hundred picks is a lot of picks.
Speaker 1: It's nothing. No, try a thousand picks. Then you start
Speaker 1: to get into some hundred picks is absolutely nothing. So
Speaker 1: you've got you know, you're evens Mikey Stellar nine and
Speaker 1: one is not a lot of picks, even your twenty
Speaker 1: three and thirty four and not a lot of Yes,
Speaker 1: that one too, by the way, And by the way,
Speaker 1: I had my best NFL in game season this year.
Speaker 1: So again I caution you folks, especially playoff games, be
Speaker 1: careful and if you wait till the end game, you
Speaker 1: have such a better chance. Alright. So that being said,
Speaker 1: we're doing two pre flops per person. Uh and at
Speaker 1: Belt Divisional round. After a wild card weekend where four
Speaker 1: of the six games were completely done by halftime just
Speaker 1: for absolute clunkers. A fifth game the Bengals and the
Speaker 1: Raiders that was marred by i'll use the word again,
Speaker 1: clunky officiating. Mikey, I know you can appreciate that kind
Speaker 1: of thing. Uh. And then the only other game that was,
Speaker 1: you know, the only other game in San Francisco DWLLS
Speaker 1: that was fun. Obviously gaps on both sides of Kyle
Speaker 1: Shanahan and Mike McCarthy famously, but that was the one
Speaker 1: game that really sort of played out nicely. But that
Speaker 1: was a tough week to get through. We're gonna you know,
Speaker 1: I don't want to complain too much because we're gonna
Speaker 1: pine for football here and I've got a couple of weeks.
Speaker 1: But um, that was a tough weekend. But at least
Speaker 1: what it might have done by getting rid of the
Speaker 1: stinky teams talking about Philly and Pittsburgh and Arizona and
Speaker 1: uh the Eagle. Who else was the fourth team of Patriots? Patriots? Well,
Speaker 1: they weren't. You know what, they weren't if you power
Speaker 1: ranked them, they weren't my top eight either. I think
Speaker 1: we have the right eight teams. I think these are
Speaker 1: the best eight teams in football. You don't think so? No.
Speaker 1: I want to pose this question if you had to
Speaker 1: go one way or the other, and Todd you can
Speaker 1: answer this first. Would you rather see an eight team
Speaker 1: playoff where nobody gets a buy? Or go back to
Speaker 1: the six team format where the one and two seats
Speaker 1: get a buy? I like the six teams better. I
Speaker 1: mean no, Okay, let me put it this this week.
Speaker 1: The better in me likes more games, obviously, more games,
Speaker 1: more opportunities in game. The the fan in me likes
Speaker 1: the six games better. I don't like this extra Again,
Speaker 1: remember in the six game format we had the Seattle Seahawks,
Speaker 1: or this in the Saints game. Didn't they have like
Speaker 1: a seven eight and one record or some ridiculous record
Speaker 1: they got in the playoffs as the sixth seed and
Speaker 1: one that game. I like a six team playoffs. I
Speaker 1: always go for less playoff teams than more player and
Speaker 1: I think it's baseball makes the mistakes and opens up
Speaker 1: their playoffs to more teams. It is just gonna be,
Speaker 1: you know, ridiculous, and you know, well, anyways, it's totally
Speaker 1: uninteresting sport. Thank god you can bet on it. But
Speaker 1: if you uh for me, is always bad. I don't like.
Speaker 1: I think Todd answered that perfectly. I think I think
Speaker 1: you h everything you said about being a better Yes,
Speaker 1: but from a fan's perspective, and it makes sense intuitively, right,
Speaker 1: if you get three six, four five matchups, you will
Speaker 1: have better football games to expand it to a seven team,
Speaker 1: which is just on the edge of having half the
Speaker 1: teams in your conference in the playoffs, you are bound
Speaker 1: to get to seven games that are awful. And none
Speaker 1: of us believe that the Pittsburgh Steelers of the Philadelphia
Speaker 1: Eagles were playoff teams. Like when we think of a
Speaker 1: NFL team that is worthy of the playoffs, those teams
Speaker 1: don't leap off the page. And and with apologies that
Speaker 1: Patriots and the Cardinals who also put up clunkers, but
Speaker 1: I think we all think that the Patriots and Cardinals
Speaker 1: were vastly better teams by and large than the Eagles
Speaker 1: and the Steelers were. Now will work out perfectly that
Speaker 1: cleanly where the seventh seed is so much worse than
Speaker 1: the six each and every year? Probably not. But remember,
Speaker 1: if the Niners don't come back from seventeen points against
Speaker 1: the Rams in Week eight teen, we're subjected to not
Speaker 1: only the Equals but also the Saints as well. So
Speaker 1: I'm totally with Todd's answer. I think it's perfectly answered you.
Speaker 1: That's that's why I suggested I don't like the seven teams.
Speaker 1: I think it's deluded the playoffs. Do you agree with
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what. I don't even like the seventeenth
Speaker 1: week of football. I mean I like it again, I
Speaker 1: like it, forbid it, but it's too many games, Okay,
Speaker 1: just too many games. I've said this in different ways
Speaker 1: all year. Don't you feel like adding the seventeenth game
Speaker 1: in some way triggered NFL teams not necessarily to go
Speaker 1: into load management, but that it almost mentally triggered something
Speaker 1: where they were like, you know what, we can't go
Speaker 1: full throttle on all these games. I use the Bills.
Speaker 1: In his example, You're you're not in Chris, Oh yeah.
Speaker 1: I think I think we're due for a change in strategy.
Speaker 1: You know, we're obviously going to see an eighteenth game.
Speaker 1: We can't avoid that. They should have just done it
Speaker 1: all at once. And I think you're gonna have to
Speaker 1: have these teams start to have two quarterbacks and learn
Speaker 1: how to play with two quarterbacks. You can't keep a
Speaker 1: quarterback healthy for you know, eighteen games plus playoffs. Uh.
Speaker 1: That's which would completely change the sport as we know it.
Speaker 1: It's gonna change it. And you know, I don't understand
Speaker 1: why these teams are. I mean, there's nothing wrong with
Speaker 1: having two decent quarterbacks. And I think teams that can
Speaker 1: get a great backup uh and actually play them intentionally
Speaker 1: every now and then, uh, and give their quarterbacks from
Speaker 1: time off, I think they're going to be at an advantage.
Speaker 1: You know, Tampa Bay's plan was probably going to be
Speaker 1: that if they didn't, you know, hit so many injuries,
Speaker 1: uh throughout the season, I think that you would have
Speaker 1: seen them sitting like the Lakers and the Nets doing basketball.
Speaker 1: The Bills are a great example Todd's sorry, it's sorta
Speaker 1: jump on here. But your point is great, which is
Speaker 1: that I lost my survivor play on the Bills playing
Speaker 1: the Jags. The Jags beat him nine to six. Then
Speaker 1: remember the Bill's first performance of that wins World game
Speaker 1: against the Patriots where Josh Allen didn't even run like
Speaker 1: they refused to run Josh Allen that entire game. If
Speaker 1: they run it five times, they probably win that game.
Speaker 1: You know, every time they do that. And you think
Speaker 1: about that Buffalo Bills team versus the one that we
Speaker 1: saw here last week, those are there's nothing even relatable
Speaker 1: about those two outfits, and so I just think that
Speaker 1: that's new to us. I I absolutely agree with you
Speaker 1: that the seventeenth game is too much. It did something.
Speaker 1: I think it did something to the fiber of the league.
Speaker 1: Not to be too dramatic about it, it's six more football.
Speaker 1: I mean, think about that. If it was a baseball season,
Speaker 1: would that be another twelve games, would have a hundred
Speaker 1: and seventy four games season, Where if it was an
Speaker 1: NBA basketball season to be an additional what six more
Speaker 1: games games? It's a tremendous amount more more. You know,
Speaker 1: it's too much anyway, it's six times. It's not even ten.
Speaker 1: It's six. Isn't it one game divided by seven? Yeah,
Speaker 1: so that's it's not it's not even. It's not either.
Speaker 1: It's not eleven ten percent of six team might get
Speaker 1: it's eleven one point six. Yeah, he's right. What are
Speaker 1: you talking about? Todd is right? Six team? So five
Speaker 1: is eight? No, if you read six percent is about
Speaker 1: eleven or twelve, it's about ten ten and a half.
Speaker 1: It's not twelve. Sorry for making it. It's three quarters.
Speaker 1: I made it seven point five to me because you're
Speaker 1: all about math and charisma. Sorry, ten point six point
Speaker 1: six charisma, charismatic believe can you place? Of course? And
Speaker 1: I have another follow up that I want to ask you.
Speaker 1: This is what Chris loves when we don't get to
Speaker 1: the picks. Ye, Chris opinion. I wanted Chris's opinion on
Speaker 1: this too, because I bet you he has an opinion.
Speaker 1: I remember you saying that you used Buffalo against Jacksonville
Speaker 1: because you thought they were for gazy. I thought, who
Speaker 1: was phazing? And you thought that. Have you changed your
Speaker 1: opinion on that? No? I think I was. I think
Speaker 1: I'm correct. Buffalo has Buffalo has had the easiest schedule
Speaker 1: in football, like they have played if you go through it.
Speaker 1: This also gets back to my Tennessee Titans point, which
Speaker 1: I think I made this morning on a number scape,
Speaker 1: which I think is the biggest sort of under like
Speaker 1: not talked about enough story in football this year. Like
Speaker 1: if Tom Brady winning the Super Bowl first year away
Speaker 1: from New England was the big story in football last year.
Speaker 1: I think if Tennessee wins this week, if they lose
Speaker 1: this week, different story. But if they win at least
Speaker 1: get to their championship game. I think the biggest underrated
Speaker 1: story in football is the Tennessee Titans being the number
Speaker 1: one seed. This relates back to the Buffalo question and
Speaker 1: and the fact that the market still hates them is
Speaker 1: a fascinating point to me because I don't remember a
Speaker 1: number one seed that has been this disrespected. Because usually
Speaker 1: if if a team like this, by the way, there's
Speaker 1: only one team like it's a by right now these days,
Speaker 1: the fact that Tennessee ended up with the number one seed,
Speaker 1: if people underrate them, usually the knock is, ah, well,
Speaker 1: they didn't play anybody. No. In fact, they not only
Speaker 1: played everybody, They beat everybody, right. They beat Buffalo, they
Speaker 1: beat San Francisco, They beat the Colts twice, they beat
Speaker 1: the Rams, Uh, they beat the Chiefs, And then the
Speaker 1: other knock would be like, oh, well, maybe the teams
Speaker 1: they played had all the injuries. No, it was Tennessee
Speaker 1: who had all the injuries, right, they had their best
Speaker 1: player was out nine weeks and their second best player
Speaker 1: was out four weeks. And I think so, And that's
Speaker 1: that's I think how people it's a fascinating story that
Speaker 1: people still hate on them, hate market wise, whereas Buffalo
Speaker 1: now currently at the moment people love. But they played nobody,
Speaker 1: I think. I think it's the most interesting thing about
Speaker 1: the NFL this year. Why did you say they played nobody?
Speaker 1: Look at their strength in the schedule, it's one of
Speaker 1: the worst. They went to Kansas City. But when it
Speaker 1: collectively because because the Jets are so bad, Yeah, because
Speaker 1: they played the Jets twice, the Dolphins, I'm just doing
Speaker 1: the math. Tampa Bay, they played Tampa Bay, they played Indianapolis, obviously,
Speaker 1: they played Tennessee, they played Kansas City, they played uh,
Speaker 1: the very vaunted Woofties. You say, who they beat, I'm
Speaker 1: joking are not very good. Um, but yeah, they beat
Speaker 1: a couple of good teams. You understand the pole. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I understand. If I just don't think that I would
Speaker 1: say they had they had the worst, the easiest schedule
Speaker 1: in the league. Well, someone, I mean someone on the
Speaker 1: show today said they did have a thirty second straight schedule.
Speaker 1: They do, but I think I think strength the schedule
Speaker 1: is completely overrated and played you How can you factor?
Speaker 1: You have to factor and when you played each team
Speaker 1: and that's who we played quarterback that game, and who
Speaker 1: was playing and what their situation was. And then if
Speaker 1: you try to tell me that a bad team or
Speaker 1: a bad team playing their best game is factored in,
Speaker 1: if you played in that situation, the same as when
Speaker 1: you play a good team playing an off game that
Speaker 1: they didn't show up on. How do you factor and
Speaker 1: quantify that? No, there's no question that it's not a
Speaker 1: clean stat right what I'm saying. I just find that
Speaker 1: because it Mike started with the Buffalo foo gazing mean, listen,
Speaker 1: I made the point before the team that played Jackson Mill,
Speaker 1: the team that played the first game against New England
Speaker 1: doesn't look anything like this team now. Now it looks
Speaker 1: like if they just hey, they commit to Josh Allen
Speaker 1: doing what he is, how he's impossible to defend. Well,
Speaker 1: the Bills if they beat the Chiefs and Tennessee beat
Speaker 1: Cincinnati be a road favorite. NFC Yeah, gets back to
Speaker 1: the way to make it. Can I ask you guys
Speaker 1: a question because this is something I see all the time,
Speaker 1: and you can actually take advantage of this and in game.
Speaker 1: And I want to know if you guys look at
Speaker 1: this UM. A couple of years ago on a numbers game,
Speaker 1: I mentioned that teams would start to get smart about
Speaker 1: not getting a first down and goal at the nine
Speaker 1: or ten yard line. There's all kinds of data to
Speaker 1: show it's much harder to get a touchdown on first
Speaker 1: and goal from the nine or ten that it is
Speaker 1: from first and goal from the three and four. I
Speaker 1: am noticing this more and more because when you have
Speaker 1: a team you need to score and the guy gets
Speaker 1: tackled at the ten yard line, I immediately go, damn,
Speaker 1: we're not gonna get a touchdown, right because because you're
Speaker 1: its first and goal at the ten, you're gonna make
Speaker 1: some stupid play to the sixth and then it's three
Speaker 1: players to get it in from the six. It's a disaster.
Speaker 1: The second second goal running play from the eight skills
Speaker 1: it's so brutal, so so so here's the thing. You
Speaker 1: can actually take advantage of this an in game, because
Speaker 1: I don't think they're sophisticated enough to like, let's say,
Speaker 1: as the team is driving and they give him a
Speaker 1: four point five expected return on this drive when they
Speaker 1: get first and goal to ten versus first and goal
Speaker 1: at the four, I don't think they adjusted properly, so
Speaker 1: you can't take advantage of this in game. I don't
Speaker 1: know what you guys think about this, but I wanted
Speaker 1: to hear what you guys thought about it because I
Speaker 1: am always of the opinion when I don't want them
Speaker 1: to score, please don't be for please don't be first
Speaker 1: and goal from the flour. I agree one. But the
Speaker 1: only the only reason, the only other thing I remember
Speaker 1: about our conversations on the numbers give about it, though,
Speaker 1: is that Todd thought the teams would get hip to
Speaker 1: it and try to like game Like if Justin Jefferson
Speaker 1: has the ball and he's running it like the twenty
Speaker 1: and he sees an opening, that's like at No, I
Speaker 1: know they won't do it, Gilly, because you're probably right,
Speaker 1: they're not smart enough. But if they were really, really,
Speaker 1: really smart. You would think that they would do that
Speaker 1: so that they could get a first down at the
Speaker 1: sixteen to give them a better chance. Is that not crazy?
Speaker 1: I think it's It's much more important than people give
Speaker 1: it credit for it. Todd, I think the rules committee
Speaker 1: should take a look at a rule where if there's
Speaker 1: pass interference in the end zone and a team has
Speaker 1: the ball at the thirty yard line or further out,
Speaker 1: they have the option of first and goal at the
Speaker 1: ten or half the distance. The team would rather have first,
Speaker 1: ten at the fifteen, the first and goal of you
Speaker 1: know what I thought you were gonna say when they
Speaker 1: fumbled the ball out of the end instead of in
Speaker 1: the stupid thing? Are you joking Mikey about that? Or
Speaker 1: do you not see that? This? This? What would you
Speaker 1: rather have? If you were the head coach? Would you
Speaker 1: take first and the first and goal with the fifteen?
Speaker 1: For sure? First and goal with the first and goal
Speaker 1: with I'd much rather have it? What do you guys think?
Speaker 1: I agree with everything you agree? I agree every I
Speaker 1: agree completely. It's what And by the way, never one
Speaker 1: time in any broadcast in the history of Proer College
Speaker 1: has anybody ever made this point. Not once That's why
Speaker 1: I'm not an announcement because exactly why you're not hired.
Speaker 1: There again, they're against fat people and they won't put
Speaker 1: me on even though these great insights but here, but here,
Speaker 1: The real truth is, as soon as my guy gets
Speaker 1: tackled first and goal with the ten, I'm about to cry.
Speaker 1: You know, I know I'm in trouble. It is unbelieved. God,
Speaker 1: I have the exact same thought in my head. I'm like, oh,
Speaker 1: this isn't gonna go. Well, Todd, at what point do
Speaker 1: we start with the picks? Right now? We barely started
Speaker 1: the podcast because Todd, I thought, Mike, you can make fun.
Speaker 1: But I thought this was some insightful discussions. Even what
Speaker 1: you had to say, I thought was because because there
Speaker 1: is never gonna shut up. We have four games, two
Speaker 1: on Saturday to on Sunday. So we've decided collectively, I
Speaker 1: believe we have that we're reducing it to two best bets. Yes,
Speaker 1: because because go to three is nonsense. So two best
Speaker 1: bets uh Las Vegas Chris here first of two. I'm
Speaker 1: I'm completely unprepared here. Okay, sorry, whatever you've got. What
Speaker 1: do we have on Saturday? You know what I like?
Speaker 1: I like just like a pop up podcast on your
Speaker 1: You don't understand what my life's like without my BlackBerry.
Speaker 1: I feel naked for got his BlackBerry today, just explained,
Speaker 1: Are you kidding, Chris? Of course I have a black
Speaker 1: but you want us to go around and get back
Speaker 1: to you. No, no, I'm okay. You know on Saturday.
Speaker 1: On Saturday, I like San Francisco. It Uh, it actually
Speaker 1: looks too easy, it really does. I realized that San
Speaker 1: Francisco have been on the road for a bunch, and um,
Speaker 1: I like the way that they rebounded after they left
Speaker 1: it all on the table to get into the playoffs,
Speaker 1: because if they were gonna have a letdown spot, it
Speaker 1: was gonna be last week. Obviously, we have to worry
Speaker 1: about the three key injuries in the game, but it
Speaker 1: looks like for the most part they're they're headed in
Speaker 1: um metrically. Uh, we all know green Bay sort of
Speaker 1: in the Tennessee category of always overperforming their metrics, and
Speaker 1: it kind of just I've said it before, it green
Speaker 1: Bay plays uh football games like I shoot pool, where
Speaker 1: you know, I goof around until I can make the
Speaker 1: balls or until I have to do something, and then
Speaker 1: I do it. So I look like crap, and I
Speaker 1: performed like crap, and then if I get an opening,
Speaker 1: I take the opening. So uh it seems like that's
Speaker 1: how green Bay plays, and uh San Francisco rates higher
Speaker 1: than green Bay on my metrics, and giving them six
Speaker 1: points in a game like this, I mean with the
Speaker 1: coaching they have with Samuel and uh KIDDI they have
Speaker 1: me have been using Kiddle lately. You know, he's been
Speaker 1: a nothing burger. I just think, are you worried about Jimmy? Yeah,
Speaker 1: of course I am. But you know, it's not like
Speaker 1: you're you're you're you know obviously, Uh, you know, Fields
Speaker 1: has to go in there. At least he's had some success,
Speaker 1: He's got some time in there, and uh he's not
Speaker 1: going to be completely virgin to the situation. But uh,
Speaker 1: the I just think six points is just, you know,
Speaker 1: ridiculous in this matchup, especially with how many times green
Speaker 1: Bay just lets people hang around, hang around, uh you
Speaker 1: know a lot. They had a lot of close calls
Speaker 1: this season, and uh, I just don't think that they
Speaker 1: I think San Francisco is good enough to stay with
Speaker 1: them there. They should be running the ball down their
Speaker 1: throat the entire game, and uh, I know San Francisco
Speaker 1: secondary is vulnerable, but I just see that that six
Speaker 1: points is going to make the difference, and it's not
Speaker 1: gonna surprise me to see San Francisco win. But you know,
Speaker 1: primarily this is based on my metrics, which you know,
Speaker 1: I used fifty five different inputs on it. So I'm
Speaker 1: not gonna pull out, you know, a handful of of
Speaker 1: stats at any time and say well they're number one
Speaker 1: in this, number two in this, because you know, I
Speaker 1: like to merge them all together and I think it's
Speaker 1: a culmination of a lot of things. So that's my
Speaker 1: feelings on that game. So San Francisco plus the six
Speaker 1: six Todd yes, six, And we're still waiting to hear.
Speaker 1: As Chris said on Bosa on Warner, Jimmy GE's got
Speaker 1: the injuries, Mikey, what's your first? Can I give my second?
Speaker 1: Because it's the same as Chris is the forty niners.
Speaker 1: Um we've got on our show, odds on sort of
Speaker 1: revolutionized Visa and that we do a segment where I'm
Speaker 1: all guests is the lines and and for well some
Speaker 1: might copy it now, but for division a weekend, I'm
Speaker 1: all guest three and a half for this game as
Speaker 1: the number, and I didn't think he was that far off.
Speaker 1: I knew it already though, you know, I know what
Speaker 1: did I. By the way, so Felka, Felika and I
Speaker 1: had this thing while the Niners were beating the Cowboys.
Speaker 1: Felika said three. I said no, it's three and a
Speaker 1: half or four? He said four and a half. And
Speaker 1: then when the injuries started coming, were like, oh, we
Speaker 1: gotta throw this out the window, but yes, to give
Speaker 1: it a difference. In um in her self titled debut
Speaker 1: solo album, The Miseducation of Lauren Hill, the first track
Speaker 1: released was Everything Is Everything, which really described the Cowboys
Speaker 1: and forty Niners game in in Dallas on Sunday. Everything
Speaker 1: you expected happened. Forty Niners had a creative, effective running game,
Speaker 1: Dak performed small on a big stage, Jimmy g turned
Speaker 1: the ball over at a critical time, and Mark McCarthy's
Speaker 1: game management reared its ugly had everything you would have
Speaker 1: predicted happened him. The forty Niners absolutely dominated the game.
Speaker 1: If he hits I you they win by three touchdowns? Right,
Speaker 1: And I think that he doesn't throw that pick. That
Speaker 1: sort of shook his confidence. Um, But I look at
Speaker 1: it this way. Here's how I analyze this game. On
Speaker 1: that day where we celebrate the Carpenter's son's birth, Cleveland
Speaker 1: went into green Bay and despite for Baker mayfield interception
Speaker 1: with the Jewish bird, Jewish had a chance. Well, minor
Speaker 1: Prophet had a chance to win that game. Now tell
Speaker 1: me this, Tom, and I'll ask you. Would you rather
Speaker 1: have Baker Mayfield or Jimmy G. Would you rather have
Speaker 1: the Cleveland running game or the forty Niner running game? Push?
Speaker 1: Would you rather have the Cleveland defense or the forty
Speaker 1: Niners defense. I don't think you can argue. You could
Speaker 1: argue the first two are Push, maybe Jimmy G and Baker,
Speaker 1: But look, I think they're much better team and Cleveland,
Speaker 1: by all right, should have won that game. Green Bay's
Speaker 1: been unimpressive down the stretch. I think it's way too
Speaker 1: many points. I'll take the six, He'll take the six,
Speaker 1: and it's sliding down to five and a half. We
Speaker 1: just went to five minutes. Can I jump in and
Speaker 1: give my number two? I'm on the San Francisco forty
Speaker 1: plus six. I this this defies when we have three
Speaker 1: people goring on the same game. It gets ugly here.
Speaker 1: But for all the reasons stated, and yes I know
Speaker 1: about the injuries, and if that turned here towards the
Speaker 1: end of the week, then obviously that would be an issue.
Speaker 1: But just based on what we're just talking about, the
Speaker 1: guesses of the line during that game, this is this
Speaker 1: is too much. It's just too many points for a
Speaker 1: Packer's team. That by the way, you brought up the
Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns that last game of the regular season where
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield through the the pick to Resul Douglas. It
Speaker 1: was his fourth pick of the game and Green Bay
Speaker 1: held on to beat Cleveland. The image of Aaron Rodgers
Speaker 1: standing on that sideline watching helplessly to see how that
Speaker 1: game played out, and you thought to yourself at the time,
Speaker 1: who are the teams in this league built to beat
Speaker 1: the Packers specifically also at Lambeau. They're all in the
Speaker 1: a f C except for one right Indianapolis, Cleveland, Tennessee,
Speaker 1: big running games. The only team in the NFC was
Speaker 1: the Niners. Another reason why the Niners coming back in
Speaker 1: Week eighteen to beat the Rams was everything for these postseasons.
Speaker 1: So San Francisco for this postseason, San Francisco is my
Speaker 1: number two DoD Okay, I'm gonna go with um the
Speaker 1: under in that game, under forty seven in that game
Speaker 1: as my second pick. I'll just start with that game. Also,
Speaker 1: like you guys did, I like under forty seven in
Speaker 1: Green Bay and San Francisco. Green Bay plays from what
Speaker 1: I'm told, the slowest pace in the NFL, meaning, you know,
Speaker 1: they take the longest time before they snapped the ball.
Speaker 1: I think the Niners also are gonna want to protect
Speaker 1: Jimmy with all his injuries and try to slow the
Speaker 1: game down. Also, I was really impressed. Look, I like
Speaker 1: the Niners defense all year, but I really like what
Speaker 1: they did going into Dallas. I think they'll be able
Speaker 1: to slow Aaron Rodgers down a little bit. And you know,
Speaker 1: forty seven still a decent amount of points in an
Speaker 1: NFL game. I'll take under forty seven, you know, and
Speaker 1: you're in uh final and uh and you get the W.
Speaker 1: I just think that there's gonna be a lot of
Speaker 1: running in this game and and a slow paced game. Again,
Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna let Jimmy just throw it
Speaker 1: all over the field, knowing that he can blow up
Speaker 1: in in in you know, at any moment Chris number
Speaker 1: two for you, sir, What do I have to go again?
Speaker 1: You don't want to go again? No, I'm debating Mikey
Speaker 1: and I want to see if we match on one
Speaker 1: end to you want me to go first? Do you
Speaker 1: want to go first or number one? Well, you have
Speaker 1: the lead, so I haven't written down already, so I'm
Speaker 1: not changing anything. I got the Tennessee tight. Yeah, there
Speaker 1: we go. That's my guy. I think this might be
Speaker 1: as big a mismatch and this round is. I thought
Speaker 1: Tampa and Philly was in the first round. It's wow,
Speaker 1: that's I honestly think. You know, we we've We've come
Speaker 1: to say also that the whole field advantage doesn't mean
Speaker 1: as much in the NFL as it used to. We
Speaker 1: quantified it at three points back in the day. Now
Speaker 1: it's less. I actually think we sort of get away
Speaker 1: from that in the playoffs a little bit. I think
Speaker 1: home field still matters in the playoffs. And I think
Speaker 1: the return of Derrick Henry, despite the fact that I
Speaker 1: had ed fang on the power rank on the numbers
Speaker 1: get me yesterday and he talked about how did you
Speaker 1: hear that? He talked about how Dante Foreman's average per
Speaker 1: carry and his yards after contact are relatively sane. And
Speaker 1: I just I just pushed back on something like that.
Speaker 1: And I had Jeff Schwartz on this morning, and as
Speaker 1: a former offensive lineman, he just talked about it goes, yeah,
Speaker 1: we blocked the same, but knowing that you have this
Speaker 1: guy that can just break one at any given moment,
Speaker 1: there's just a different mindset to it all. I think
Speaker 1: the Titans, again dumptailing back to the earlier comments, I
Speaker 1: think they are the most criminally underrated thing going. I
Speaker 1: think the Bengals. I love the Bengals. Look who doesn't
Speaker 1: love Joe Burrow, But I do think they're a year away.
Speaker 1: And while watching that Raiders Bengals game last week, I
Speaker 1: started to think to myself, I don't know if I
Speaker 1: would mind the Titans playing the SAP Titans futures. I
Speaker 1: don't know if I would mind the Titans playing this
Speaker 1: Bengals team. I think the Titans defense is going to
Speaker 1: really rise up. I think Derrick Henry is going to
Speaker 1: gain a ridiculous amount of yards in this game, and
Speaker 1: I think the Titans are going to quietly dominate. I
Speaker 1: think it's gonna be the most home home game of
Speaker 1: the weekend, and I think the Titans win going away.
Speaker 1: And by the way, Gilly, did you know that in
Speaker 1: the last eight games, Cincinnati has only played one legitimate
Speaker 1: road game. All the other six games were at home.
Speaker 1: One game was at Cleveland when they didn't try to
Speaker 1: throw that one in the garbage. The only game that
Speaker 1: was on the road, and that entire series of the
Speaker 1: last eight games was at Denver where they squeaked it
Speaker 1: out because of the last second first half field goal
Speaker 1: when Fangio messed it up and they end up winning
Speaker 1: fifteen to ten. So all this pro Bengals thought process
Speaker 1: is based on a on a home games, Gil, when
Speaker 1: you were away, Um, I asked the question of Todd
Speaker 1: and Frank Schwab because I think this this game features
Speaker 1: the only two viable Coach of the Year candidates who
Speaker 1: you would vote for if you had a vote. To me,
Speaker 1: it's not really close. I don't think it's close. I
Speaker 1: think I've always said who he overcame all those injuries,
Speaker 1: got the number one seed, and I get it that
Speaker 1: the Bengals from preseason numbers overperformed more than anybody. I
Speaker 1: said to French Swab, what about the argument the Bengals
Speaker 1: were one that win their division. He said, so they
Speaker 1: were miss priced. What does that have to do with
Speaker 1: the coach of the year? Well, and Vrabel's mother's Japanese.
Speaker 1: Abel's married to a girl that was a year behind
Speaker 1: me in high school. She was it's one of the
Speaker 1: best volleyball players in the country that she would you
Speaker 1: got a scholarship to Ohio State and that's where they
Speaker 1: met Jen Bolen. But they have a terrific family, not
Speaker 1: a blend. Sorry you ready, you ready, Chris will let
Speaker 1: you know what the other three games, Todd, we're only
Speaker 1: doing to Okay, I'll pick a different game, you know what.
Speaker 1: I'll go with the Rams here. Okay, that would have
Speaker 1: been my number three. I don't like the way Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay is basically backed in you know, my metrics. U.
Speaker 1: They Tampa Bay played a pretty easy schedule for the
Speaker 1: last quarter of the season, and they still rank near
Speaker 1: the bottom. I have them thirty uh over those over
Speaker 1: that time period on my metrics and uh you know. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: you've got the Rams, which they haven't been uh uh
Speaker 1: top ten during that time period, but they have shown
Speaker 1: some improvement. I worry about their inconsistencies and stuff. But
Speaker 1: you know, when you look at Tampa Bay from last year,
Speaker 1: they weren't expected to run the table. They got so lucky.
Speaker 1: They benefited from a lot of luck. I believe they
Speaker 1: were plus eleven or twelve fumbled by Cooke across the middle,
Speaker 1: and they don't win that game, they're out, and the
Speaker 1: Jedi mind trick on Matt Lafleur. They were pay that
Speaker 1: they were like plus ten or eleven or twelve in
Speaker 1: the turnover ratio and just in the playoffs, just in
Speaker 1: that short little stretch they got very, very lucky. And
Speaker 1: then everybody, you know, it's Brady. This Brady. They had
Speaker 1: all their miracle workers. That team is not the same team.
Speaker 1: They're missing a lot of players, and they're dinged up.
Speaker 1: They're not in any decent form. Remember last year they
Speaker 1: went into with perfect form last year. So I have
Speaker 1: a future in them to win the the NFC. So
Speaker 1: and I don't think it's gonna win, but and and
Speaker 1: and I think we get a little extra value just
Speaker 1: with the Brady cover. Si Aura, Uh, you know how
Speaker 1: many times are we gonna hear it this week? You
Speaker 1: can't bet against Brady? How can you bet against Brady? Well,
Speaker 1: because I'm getting an extra couple of points because that's
Speaker 1: your people, like you keep saying that. So now I
Speaker 1: worry about Stafford where they he you know, he's always
Speaker 1: hiding injuries and he had a good game last game.
Speaker 1: But they're balanced, you know, they're running the ball more. Uh,
Speaker 1: they're not relying on the past as much, and they're
Speaker 1: just very balanced. And I think it's a perfect spot
Speaker 1: for them to be able to uh uh to win.
Speaker 1: And I believe if I'm not a mistake. And I
Speaker 1: don't have my data, but uh, you know they covered
Speaker 1: last year in Tampa Bay. They beat him up. Uh
Speaker 1: didn't they beat him up already? This see week three?
Speaker 1: They beat him in l A. So you know they
Speaker 1: match up okay, And um, you're not gonna have any
Speaker 1: weather factors. You're not gonna have any major rest factors.
Speaker 1: I just think the Rams actually have the tools to
Speaker 1: give the Lions a lower draft picks and beat Tampa Bay.
Speaker 1: You think And I'll ask Gildas as well, since he
Speaker 1: says the Rams are his third pick. Do you think
Speaker 1: they can run the ball though against Tampa No, so
Speaker 1: to be this was a referendum on Stafford because I
Speaker 1: heard you on the way, he said, it's a referendum
Speaker 1: on Stafford. Yeah, it probably is. Probably is a referendom Stafford.
Speaker 1: By the way, Jeff Schwartz is on this morning, he's
Speaker 1: entired dalysis. He goes, don't bet against Brady. That was
Speaker 1: his entire of this game. A lot of people also
Speaker 1: said the Steeler's offensive line was okay. He also said
Speaker 1: he's He's also said he's tired of listening to you
Speaker 1: when he wants to go home. When he was on
Speaker 1: the spot, that's fine. He can he can get he
Speaker 1: can get annoyed for no reason. That's fine, by the way.
Speaker 1: So let's wrap up your second pick. We'll get Adam
Speaker 1: in here for for the the answers to all of
Speaker 1: these questions. Todd, what's your number two? It actually number one,
Speaker 1: number one, Rams was gonna be my number. That was
Speaker 1: gonna be my number three pick. I'm not gonna take.
Speaker 1: I couldn't agree more with what Chris said that I
Speaker 1: think there's something wrong with this Buccaneers team. The only
Speaker 1: thing I'd be afraid of his Stafford. And that's the question.
Speaker 1: But my number one pick is going to be the
Speaker 1: under in the Bengals Titans game. Under forty seven and
Speaker 1: a half. Is that way you have gil on forty
Speaker 1: seven and a half, I believe yes. Let me check
Speaker 1: under forty seven and a half in the Titans Bengals game.
Speaker 1: As I was mentioning, the Bengals have done all this
Speaker 1: positive stuff six six out of the seven games when
Speaker 1: they tried, we're all at home. The one game, as
Speaker 1: I said before, that they weren't at home was at
Speaker 1: Denver and they barely were life and death to win
Speaker 1: that game. Uh. I just didn't like the fact that
Speaker 1: they were settling for all those field goals. I think
Speaker 1: Tennessee will be able to hold them to a lot
Speaker 1: of field goals as well. Of course, it's gonna be
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry to the left, Derrick Henry to the right,
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry to the middle, so that will give us
Speaker 1: a lot of running. So I'm gonna go under forty
Speaker 1: seven and a half in the Titans Bengals in my
Speaker 1: number one thing, All right, let's bring Adam churn Off
Speaker 1: in everybody, Adam back on the show from Canada. Where
Speaker 1: in Canada are you? And Alberta? Yeah, west of Calgary
Speaker 1: in the uh the cold of mid January winter? How
Speaker 1: cold is it. What's the temperature? Uh? Minus eighteen celsius?
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, which is actually nice. So what is that
Speaker 1: in fahrenheight? Close to the same? I think, what is that?
Speaker 1: I think it is about the same. What is that
Speaker 1: in Kelvin, Adam? What is that in Kelvin? What you
Speaker 1: got there? Minus a teen is got me on that?
Speaker 1: One good version. Let's do a conversion of minus eighteen. Yeah.
Speaker 1: My girlfriend lives in Toronto, she's Canadian. She I tell
Speaker 1: her what the temperature is and she goes. I have
Speaker 1: no idea what that means. Did she go back? It's
Speaker 1: not pleasant no matter what scale you use, it's just cold.
Speaker 1: Adam is the senior strategist for Covers fourteen years in
Speaker 1: NFL bookmaking, which, by the way, is a fascinating background
Speaker 1: which we've never really gotten into on the show, which
Speaker 1: we should one day. Um I saw that on Twitter?
Speaker 1: Are you talking about when he went to the Costa Rica? Like?
Speaker 1: I didn't know any of these stories about you, Adam. Fascinating. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it was. It was a weird eight to ten years
Speaker 1: bouncing around the Caribbean, but we ended up in a
Speaker 1: good spot. And you guys, you Las Vegas, Chris and Adam,
Speaker 1: you too do a podcast together four Covers, which is
Speaker 1: called it Covers on Test Weekly. But we I'm here
Speaker 1: for you guys because I got a text from Chris
Speaker 1: yesterday it was you are a hack and that was it.
Speaker 1: That was the extent of the text. So I'm here
Speaker 1: for you three. Thank you. I have some discussions to
Speaker 1: have about a game here that you said Westgate was
Speaker 1: the first to go to four on on Cincinnati on
Speaker 1: two different shows, and the first is this is this
Speaker 1: what your guys podcast is like? It is it is
Speaker 1: you go after each other and Adam of course does
Speaker 1: the simple handicap as well, which is his bread and
Speaker 1: butter year round. You're doing golf again this year, Adam.
Speaker 1: I've I've given up on trying to beat golf. Really.
Speaker 1: I know who wins is at it, I know how
Speaker 1: they win at it, and I just I don't have
Speaker 1: the energy to try and compete anymore. Could you? Could
Speaker 1: you expand all that that's fascinating, not the who, the how? Well, Okay,
Speaker 1: so there's one source of information that's like a well
Speaker 1: respected model that's publicly posted Sunday night, and for years
Speaker 1: it's been like that, but now it's become very popular,
Speaker 1: and books have caught onto it too, because there's now
Speaker 1: an agreement between the site and the book where there's
Speaker 1: lines that are displayed on site, and so it's now
Speaker 1: it's like an eight eight to ten minute race Sunday
Speaker 1: night to beat any lines that move relative to that model.
Speaker 1: And then on Tuesday evening there is a sports book
Speaker 1: that for years of has posted golf matchups um, but
Speaker 1: now they're doing it and that's become kind of widely
Speaker 1: known as well, and so it's just a race to
Speaker 1: beat that. So for me, I'm looking at golf this
Speaker 1: year as you're either in that race trying to compete
Speaker 1: to get your numbers before anyone else gets them, or
Speaker 1: those those models moved the prices, or you're trying to
Speaker 1: figure out where that model and that sports book are
Speaker 1: wrong and going against it the other way. But I
Speaker 1: don't have a way to do that either, and so
Speaker 1: last year I was just betting into numbers that we're
Speaker 1: just getting destroyed and it just very hard to compete.
Speaker 1: So now with other're gonna step back calling the hotel
Speaker 1: room at three o'clock in the morning to go against
Speaker 1: the golfer that you're going against. You know, like wake
Speaker 1: come up in the middle of something with that work. Well,
Speaker 1: i'll tell you what. There's there's a story when there
Speaker 1: was when we were dealing with the COVID stuff and
Speaker 1: the tour shut down, but we had the outlaw too,
Speaker 1: were going. It was very easy to call the courses
Speaker 1: in Arizona that they were playing at and like they
Speaker 1: were just willing to talk for and fifteen minutes. So
Speaker 1: there was a lot of really good stuff that was
Speaker 1: coming directly from the courses, unlike who was there, who
Speaker 1: was practicing shops with nothing to do all there. It's awesome. Well,
Speaker 1: that was very that was fascinating. I'm fascinated by that.
Speaker 1: I'd actually like the bendire about that elsewhere that that's
Speaker 1: that's what I like about that though, also, Adam is
Speaker 1: what's not being spoken here is just a recognition that
Speaker 1: sometimes it ain't worth it, right, and that sometimes you
Speaker 1: know when you're beat kind of thing, not when you're beat,
Speaker 1: but you know that it's not worth it to you
Speaker 1: to expend the resources on trying to beat something that's
Speaker 1: sort of gamed, if you will second, the exact same
Speaker 1: thing happened to me six seven years ago within play
Speaker 1: women's tennis. That was I was huge into it and
Speaker 1: then it just one season you could tell that like, Okay,
Speaker 1: this is going away, and it was just when you know,
Speaker 1: you know you can't do it anymore. Yeah, who appears
Speaker 1: on our podcasts weekly? Adam or Drew. I'm gonna say
Speaker 1: Drew Drew. Drew's everywhere. Drew is everywhere. That's not that's
Speaker 1: not a knock on Adam. No, no, no, I just
Speaker 1: but they're both prolific, prolific. Well, Adam has the his
Speaker 1: the indoor record for Alberta, I believe, not the outdoor outdoor.
Speaker 1: Where's Adam's going? He's not going outside to do stuff.
Speaker 1: Apparently that's why we're gil The conversion is negative half
Speaker 1: degree fahrenheit. Oh my goodness, thanks zero. To think about
Speaker 1: Drew before we continue bashing the cold. In like twenty
Speaker 1: fifteen sixteen, there was a huge group chat of like
Speaker 1: a lot of people that are now like on shows
Speaker 1: that they've got their own like network deals or anything,
Speaker 1: that have sort of progressed, and like he was in there,
Speaker 1: I was in there. There were other are people that
Speaker 1: we've all seen on shows too, and it's weird, like
Speaker 1: everybody kind of knew each other before there was really
Speaker 1: like a content space around betting, and everyone's just kind
Speaker 1: of like progressed in their own direction and so like
Speaker 1: it's it's amazing to see what he does and how
Speaker 1: much success he's had. But it's fun to remember, like
Speaker 1: we all kind of started together in like the spot,
Speaker 1: but with Gil, you your show has been around for
Speaker 1: more eleven twelve years, like very much. You've been one
Speaker 1: of the pioneers and that so it's like fun and
Speaker 1: everything's kind of coming together now. It's it's so great
Speaker 1: to think about how it's how it's all evolved. Was
Speaker 1: your chat was that tennis heavy back in the day.
Speaker 1: I think Drew told me it was wasn't it was
Speaker 1: that a different thing, a lot of tennis, a lot
Speaker 1: of football, and just like a lot of different like
Speaker 1: betting insights that were coming. It was a lot sort
Speaker 1: of fueled offshore obviously at the time. But um now
Speaker 1: with like it's kind of evolved and everyone went their
Speaker 1: other direction once things became regulated. But it was I
Speaker 1: want to compliment you and Drew bo since we were
Speaker 1: since we're talking about both of you and Tandem before
Speaker 1: we get to your picks here, because you want to
Speaker 1: hear your top two picks. But the thing that I
Speaker 1: think makes both of you so great, if I may,
Speaker 1: is that here's the thing with most sports betters. They're
Speaker 1: either really bad, that's first one thing right, or they're
Speaker 1: so you know, I don't know what the word is,
Speaker 1: but they're so wrapped up in their sports betting world
Speaker 1: that they're incapable of communicating what they do. They're just
Speaker 1: very sort of not asperger Z, but just there are
Speaker 1: a certain type of person that is not Their strength
Speaker 1: is not communication. You and Drew are sharp bettors who
Speaker 1: really can communicate on a level that doesn't speak down
Speaker 1: to people, that doesn't sound like you're two above brow
Speaker 1: and I just the highest compliment I can give is
Speaker 1: that that you're able to do that. So kudos to
Speaker 1: you on that. Man, No, he doesn't. He does it
Speaker 1: as well as anybody. So I completely agree there. We
Speaker 1: want to hear your picks at them more than anything.
Speaker 1: Your your top pick divisional round this week? What do
Speaker 1: you got? Well? I went Niners at six this morning.
Speaker 1: I was kind of stuck a lot of the week,
Speaker 1: but I like San Francisco quite a bit. I can't
Speaker 1: I can't justify that number being that big, and the
Speaker 1: only way that I could get there is if I'm
Speaker 1: putting a lot of value into the first round, by
Speaker 1: a lot of value into going on the road for
Speaker 1: San Francisco into Lambeau and home field advantage and what
Speaker 1: that might equate to, because it seems like the injury
Speaker 1: report in general for San Francisco right now is a
Speaker 1: lot more positive than what we saw sort of Monday
Speaker 1: morning Tuesday morning, where like this was a number that
Speaker 1: really realistically should have been for And the only reason
Speaker 1: we're up to six now is because of those like
Speaker 1: the assumed impact of those injuries, which I think will
Speaker 1: be less than we ever thought it was earlier in
Speaker 1: the week, and so I was I was pretty happy
Speaker 1: to take six. Obviously. If there's a setback for Garoppolo,
Speaker 1: this bad is dead but plays and is healthy, um
Speaker 1: which I think he will be enough to maneuver this
Speaker 1: offense and just this matchup they have on the ground
Speaker 1: against the Packers defense. So I just think it's too
Speaker 1: many points. That makes what is that four of us
Speaker 1: now on the Niners? Todd, were you on the nighter
Speaker 1: you stayed away from that? No, he had totally stayed
Speaker 1: away from I stayed away from that. I just figured
Speaker 1: to give something different because I'm way behind. Anyways, that's
Speaker 1: four of us on the Niners plus the points. Todd,
Speaker 1: you're mathematically eliminated. You're not way behind, Okay, I'm sorry
Speaker 1: that I'm mathematically got me, You got You're you're going
Speaker 1: to be mathematically I'd like to point out your circuit
Speaker 1: and three entry did go fifty? Thank you, thank you?
Speaker 1: How much did you win on that? And then what
Speaker 1: does that do though? What does that do for the
Speaker 1: raj bodies and the trip Teppers? What does that do
Speaker 1: for them? They need winners on this podcast, the raj
Speaker 1: Bodies and the Trip Tappers. We love Raj Body and
Speaker 1: we love Trip Tepper, and they love Todd, who does
Speaker 1: not well some people add uh, I told you not
Speaker 1: to bet pre game in the NFL, even your you
Speaker 1: guys with your stellar seven nine and one record would
Speaker 1: not have shown a profit. My friend in games where
Speaker 1: it's at in the national Mike Mike I was talking
Speaker 1: to Mike's filthy about not yours? How dare you short
Speaker 1: change me? Adam? What's uh? What do you like besides that?
Speaker 1: What's your number? Two? So? I think we have to
Speaker 1: go Titans Bengals here and get that discussion out. I
Speaker 1: haven't seen missed what you guys might have got into
Speaker 1: with that. Am I allowed to give out a prop
Speaker 1: or is that against the rule? You're allowed to do
Speaker 1: whatever you want. It won't count as your number two,
Speaker 1: But well you're allowed to give that out too. Okay.
Speaker 1: So another bet that I got into this morning was
Speaker 1: Julio over forty five receiving yards forty five and a
Speaker 1: half um and the reason being because the Henry returned.
Speaker 1: So we've heard kind of in the last twelve hours
Speaker 1: for six Uh, he's sort of gonna be capped out
Speaker 1: at fifteen touches. That's kind of the limit that they're
Speaker 1: putting on him. So there's still gonna be like usage
Speaker 1: for Foreman, But with how similar they are, I think
Speaker 1: the actual biggest impact that Henry is going to have
Speaker 1: returning is how much he's going to open up the
Speaker 1: Titans passing game. There was eleven percent of snaps this
Speaker 1: season four the Titans were played with Brown, Julio and
Speaker 1: Henry on the field, and Tannehill had like nine and
Speaker 1: a half yards per tempt relative to just over five
Speaker 1: without them. So I actually think it's a big passing
Speaker 1: game opportunity for Tennessee overall. And so with kind of
Speaker 1: this from seven for Cincinnati banged up, they're not really
Speaker 1: going to be able to cheat, so that kind of
Speaker 1: limits them in the middle. And it's gonna put defensive
Speaker 1: backs for Cincinnati kind of on a bit of an
Speaker 1: island behind that first level of the defense. So obviously
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a sellout to stop Brown. Julio is
Speaker 1: gonna get really soft coverage because of that. So I
Speaker 1: think it's going be a big game for Jones. Um.
Speaker 1: But I'm also intrigued by the Titans as well, although
Speaker 1: where the number is now I don't love it. And
Speaker 1: this is where Chris and I were disagreeing when it
Speaker 1: was coming to where the number is and where it
Speaker 1: might ultimately be going. So if I had to give
Speaker 1: a second bat that wasn't the prop, I would be
Speaker 1: looking at Tennessee. There we go, Tennessee. So you you,
Speaker 1: me and Mikey same exact two picks, although we had
Speaker 1: Tennessee first, San Francisco second. And the Julio Jones thing
Speaker 1: is is interesting at him because I got ed fang
Speaker 1: from the power rank was on the Numbers game yesterday,
Speaker 1: and he was talking about how he thought that Tennessee
Speaker 1: was way overrated and that Dante Dante Foreman's rushing yards
Speaker 1: and runs after the contact or the exact are kind
Speaker 1: of the same as Derrick Henry's. And I pushed back
Speaker 1: on it. I love it, It's my guy, but I
Speaker 1: pushed back on it. I just said, this is this
Speaker 1: is sort of the uh, the moment where analytics goes
Speaker 1: overboard to me, right, Like, I love analytics as much
Speaker 1: as the next guy, but it's sort of like Todd,
Speaker 1: you'll appreciate this. I brought up the Doctor Bob thing
Speaker 1: when he said that Kevon Looney meant more to the
Speaker 1: Warriors than Clay Thompson did. Right, It's sort of the
Speaker 1: Potty Tang moment if you're ever familiar with Chris Rock's
Speaker 1: character Potty Tang, where the whole bit was Pootty Tank
Speaker 1: spoken jibberish and Chris Rock would ask him the three
Speaker 1: consecutive questions. He would answer in gibberish and Chris Rock
Speaker 1: will be like, yeah, yeah, no, I totally get it,
Speaker 1: and then Potti Tang would speak of the fourth answer
Speaker 1: in jibberish too, and Chris Rock will be like, what motherfucker,
Speaker 1: what the funk are you talking about? And he kick
Speaker 1: him off the show. And I felt like the Doctor
Speaker 1: Bob Kevin Kavon Looney thing and Ed saying that about
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry and Dante Form And that's the pootty Tang
Speaker 1: moment to me where it's like, Okay, there's clearly something
Speaker 1: in that number that doesn't capture the broader point of
Speaker 1: a team sport, right. It's different in tennis or in baseball,
Speaker 1: which is an individual sport disguise as a team sport
Speaker 1: in my opinion, where when there's too many moving parts
Speaker 1: then it becomes a little more nebulous. And so I guess, Adam,
Speaker 1: when I'm with the Julio Jones thing, isn't that exactly
Speaker 1: it that Derrick Henry somehow makes everything open up for
Speaker 1: Ryan Tannell. It's one of the aspects anyway, Yeah, this
Speaker 1: is this is not a bat on the Titans because
Speaker 1: Henry is going to be really successful and run for
Speaker 1: two hundred yards. He might he we haven't seen him
Speaker 1: play in nine weeks. I'm not discounting that, but every
Speaker 1: snap that he is on the field completely changes how
Speaker 1: teams have to defend this offense and it just opens
Speaker 1: up so much in the past. That's exactly I agree completely.
Speaker 1: Do you can I push back against you on your whole,
Speaker 1: on your thing. We'll go ahead and ask you. I
Speaker 1: was just gonna do you think that they stick to
Speaker 1: the pitch count? Do you think that if Derrick Henry
Speaker 1: starts busting out runs that they're gonna stick to fifteen
Speaker 1: carries if it's a tight game? Good question. Yeah. He
Speaker 1: came out after the interview yesterday, like what's the biggest
Speaker 1: difference now versus earlier in the season, And he's like, Wow,
Speaker 1: I have a giant metal plate in my foot. It's
Speaker 1: like you hear that, Like it's not like he's not
Speaker 1: there's no way. And so it's hard to say, but
Speaker 1: like if he's going wild, they might give him a
Speaker 1: few extra touches. But it just seems like he has
Speaker 1: impact overall is a little bit overstated to what it
Speaker 1: actually means for the passing game of this offense, which
Speaker 1: I think it's more implotant Todd, You're gonna say, I
Speaker 1: was just gonna say that. I I sort of hear
Speaker 1: a little bit about what ed fan is saying I
Speaker 1: understand what you're saying, and I don't discount what you're saying.
Speaker 1: I just think that in the running back is the
Speaker 1: one position where if you're the best running back, you're
Speaker 1: not that much better than every other great running back
Speaker 1: versus say receiver or quarterback. Meaning let's say that the
Speaker 1: the the the elite running backs are one point two
Speaker 1: in the average running backs a one, Derrick Henry say
Speaker 1: one point three five, whereas on the receivers it might be,
Speaker 1: you know, the average receivers are one the real good
Speaker 1: ones at one point two and Cooper Cups at one
Speaker 1: point six. My my point is that running back just
Speaker 1: cannot due to the fact that he's so um. He
Speaker 1: depends so much on his line and his holes the
Speaker 1: Nase Harris situation where he gets zero holes running and
Speaker 1: if you have a good line. Granted, Derek, I'm not
Speaker 1: I'm not taking away what you're saying. I agree with
Speaker 1: what you're saying. I still think Derrick Henry and is
Speaker 1: obviously a difference maker. I just think the amount of
Speaker 1: difference is not as much as in another And I
Speaker 1: don't and I don't disagree with what you're saying. I
Speaker 1: do think there are exceptions to the rule, and I
Speaker 1: think in the case of Derrick Henry, you have a
Speaker 1: guy who has more potential to bust out long ones
Speaker 1: in a way that he actually is a sort of unicorn.
Speaker 1: I see you nodding, Adam, Yeah, good, Todd. I I
Speaker 1: agree completely, but Gil, like you're saying, so, it's like
Speaker 1: Henry's probably the exception. Now, maybe Dalvin cooked to an extent,
Speaker 1: but then in the past, it was like when Zeke
Speaker 1: was like prime Zeke, you mean, when he could run
Speaker 1: sort of built around him, he was worth a lot
Speaker 1: more than an average running back ever used to be.
Speaker 1: And then it was like Adrian Peterson back with the
Speaker 1: Vikings nine, ten years ago, whatever it was now that
Speaker 1: was kind of the exception. So there's always like exactly right,
Speaker 1: but there's always like one or two guys at the
Speaker 1: most the season for running back where the offense is
Speaker 1: just so built around what they do. In this case,
Speaker 1: it's the Titans with play action. It works with any
Speaker 1: running back, it doesn't matter who's back there. But for whatever,
Speaker 1: just that big playability Henry has just opens up play
Speaker 1: action that much more and how much the Titans depend
Speaker 1: on it. I think it's it's like the exception in
Speaker 1: the league. Right. No, No, I totally agree with what
Speaker 1: you're saying about making it more able to throw because
Speaker 1: the other team's gonna key on on Henry. But I
Speaker 1: just meant that, so I guess yeah, to that extent,
Speaker 1: it helps the overall offense a lot, of course. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I want to ask uh, We're not gonna ask the
Speaker 1: normal two questions I think, but I want to ask
Speaker 1: sort of three here at the end. One when our teasers,
Speaker 1: we have to do our teach our teasers of the week. Okay, yes,
Speaker 1: our teaser up. Sorry, thank you. Todd goes first. Todd,
Speaker 1: you go first. Under what's the over under on how
Speaker 1: many times Deal will mess up the format in a
Speaker 1: twenty week mega pod season. Well, he messed up the
Speaker 1: format more than twelve and a half or lesson Twoman,
Speaker 1: I put it about twelve and ten and a half
Speaker 1: every other week, every other week. I have no brain anymore.
Speaker 1: I really, I'll take the over. But I mean you don't.
Speaker 1: You don't work enough. I mean you're only on the
Speaker 1: air a couple of times a day. That's it. Um,
Speaker 1: so first, because we're gonna be I'll go with the teaser.
Speaker 1: I'll go with the teaser of the buff Bills plus
Speaker 1: the eight and a half, I believe is what I'm getting. Um,
Speaker 1: you know, just for the obvious reasons why you would
Speaker 1: want that. I also think the Bills can hang with them.
Speaker 1: And I'm also gonna go with the Rams because I
Speaker 1: did like the Rams is my third pick. I am.
Speaker 1: The only thing that I'm afraid of his, of course,
Speaker 1: is Stafford. But if i can get nine points with
Speaker 1: the Rams, I'm less afraid. I do think, and I thought, oh,
Speaker 1: the last eight weeks, there's something wrong with the Bucks.
Speaker 1: You want with plus nine? You went with the traditional
Speaker 1: John Ferguson tweet teaser there. Oh yeah, I've got to
Speaker 1: hold my half game lead Stanford long teaser Mike the
Speaker 1: real name Musage, like the traditional John Ferguson, who apparently
Speaker 1: it was in the San Diego were told, Mikey, you
Speaker 1: want to do yours first, I'm forced to use game
Speaker 1: theory here is I'm gonna go forty Niners and I'm
Speaker 1: gonna tease through the zero with the Titans. Because I'm
Speaker 1: already on the Rams and I'm on the Chiefs. I
Speaker 1: have to catch up with Chris. I have to catch
Speaker 1: up I only have I have two picks, and I'm
Speaker 1: an half behind. I have to catch up with them.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I have to game theory here. Game And
Speaker 1: what Adam said is so true. Don't say that on Twitter.
Speaker 1: It's very true. Oh the ship you'll get He tweeted
Speaker 1: that tweet. All set it on our show that he
Speaker 1: teases through zero in real life. He got, he got,
Speaker 1: he got bullied well, and the suspend turned from the
Speaker 1: network for actual equal to a d y? Yeah, like
Speaker 1: if you're a player, she qual to a d y?
Speaker 1: Or about something? What would what would what would the
Speaker 1: Jewish carpenter do? Would he tease through zero? Mikey? He
Speaker 1: he turned over the money changers tables. Uh, no, gambling, Chris,
Speaker 1: what's your niners plus twelve? I'm supposed to? I should
Speaker 1: get mine for the purposes or a contest I'm doing. Uh,
Speaker 1: I'm doing ram Can I confirm Mikey for one second?
Speaker 1: So I write it down properly? Niners plus twelve, Titans
Speaker 1: plus two and a half Mike Yes, correct, Yes, Okay,
Speaker 1: Now go ahead, Gilly the stenographer needs to get it down.
Speaker 1: Don't give the impression that I'm the one that interrupts
Speaker 1: here please for just for impressing the guests. Um, I
Speaker 1: just wanted to get it correct. I understand. I'm gonna go, uh,
Speaker 1: Rams Niners, Rams, Niners, Rams plus nine and Niners plus twelve. Chris,
Speaker 1: you know last year I came up with the with
Speaker 1: the a differentiate or a different way of doing the
Speaker 1: teasers with the three pointers, right, because there was no
Speaker 1: teaser that week. So there's no teaser for me this week.
Speaker 1: But what I like to do, what I've started to do,
Speaker 1: is I start with a multipurpose teaser, so I have
Speaker 1: a specific purpose. If I've got two different games starting
Speaker 1: at two different times, I'm using that value into something else.
Speaker 1: So let's just say, uh, we'll probably get a four
Speaker 1: or four and a half on Tennessee, the way everybody
Speaker 1: loves Tennessee. You know, if you can get over that
Speaker 1: ten and a half, if you can get to like
Speaker 1: ten and a half on that and you were gonna
Speaker 1: bet Cincinnati anyway, why bet plus four? Bet the you know,
Speaker 1: take it over that ten and treat that as an
Speaker 1: isolated wager into something else that you're already know you're
Speaker 1: gonna bet that you haven't bet later on if you
Speaker 1: like green Bay that you know, and and it's six.
Speaker 1: It's plumb, the lines plummeting as we speak. It's down
Speaker 1: to five. But if it's it's it's. If it's six,
Speaker 1: take green Bay pick into something you're betting already on Sunday.
Speaker 1: And I try, I try to use the teasers like that,
Speaker 1: but you know, just on two teams by themselves. Obviously
Speaker 1: I would take Buffalo and in the Rams, but I
Speaker 1: don't like marrying. I think teasers are becoming a lot
Speaker 1: more difficult, as shown by our records. But I think
Speaker 1: that they can be valuable if you're using them for
Speaker 1: different purposes. If you've got one standalone game, like on
Speaker 1: the Thursday night games during the regular season, if you
Speaker 1: can move that into the Saturday, Sunday or Monday game,
Speaker 1: that's the way you use it. You make a full
Speaker 1: unit and you can you can split it up. Let's
Speaker 1: just say, you know, uh, you know, you're you're if
Speaker 1: you bet if your hundred dollar better you you put
Speaker 1: four different bets into four you know, you put one,
Speaker 1: you know, one major bet into the first game, and
Speaker 1: then you spread it out bunks other games you're playing,
Speaker 1: you know, later on at a different point because it
Speaker 1: gives you a bailout too, because you the options to
Speaker 1: middle get off the game that gets you extra points.
Speaker 1: They're they're just flexible, and I think the same thing
Speaker 1: bodes well. But parlay is also and you can do
Speaker 1: that actually with the alternate lines now in a lot
Speaker 1: of the a a lot of the legal jurisdictions. You know,
Speaker 1: once in a while, I'll mess around with like plus
Speaker 1: eleven and a half in one game where I'm getting
Speaker 1: nine points in one game, I'm getting five and a
Speaker 1: half in another game, and mix and match them together
Speaker 1: in essentially creating your own custom made teaser. And then
Speaker 1: you know, that's another thing I'd like to say about
Speaker 1: Buffalo Kansas City. That's a game where I want to
Speaker 1: see what the alternate lines are. You know, that game
Speaker 1: could be all over the place, so you might find
Speaker 1: some some good value there if you're betting. If you're
Speaker 1: betting Buffalo Kansas City on the line, aren't you just
Speaker 1: an action junkie at this point? Probably because I don't
Speaker 1: know how you predict. You know, Buffalo is inconsistent, Kansas
Speaker 1: City is more steady. Eddy um, But but but I
Speaker 1: think I could see more variants. I mean, you just
Speaker 1: don't know what's going to go there. Adam, what's your
Speaker 1: favorite teaser? If you were forced to bet one, I
Speaker 1: forced a bet one, you probably have to go same
Speaker 1: as what Chris said, Buffalo l a just numbers wise,
Speaker 1: but I'm I'm not running to bet that one. But
Speaker 1: like you said, like the variance in that Buffalo Casey game,
Speaker 1: that that can go so many different directions. I agree
Speaker 1: it's but you know, I do want to get back
Speaker 1: to that teasing through the zero thing because I don't
Speaker 1: know whether people realize it. You're better off seeking out
Speaker 1: the alternate plus three and a half line rather than
Speaker 1: rather than teasing through the zero. You're gonna actually pay
Speaker 1: a better price just betting that side that direction. And
Speaker 1: another reason to remember why you don't do it, Every
Speaker 1: single number you go through to one, zero, one to
Speaker 1: all five of those numbers are all less valuable than
Speaker 1: every single number you go through in a wong teaser.
Speaker 1: So think about it. You're you're losing equity every single number,
Speaker 1: and that's a lot of equity when it adds up.
Speaker 1: And the other way to the anxiety and the other
Speaker 1: way to think about it is if you think about
Speaker 1: if you think about people who tease in other sports,
Speaker 1: how those numbers are not as valuable as key numbers
Speaker 1: in the NFL. And so what you're doing teasing through
Speaker 1: the zero is reducing the importance of teasing in the NFL. Right,
Speaker 1: If you were playing in a contest and it was
Speaker 1: a teaser contest and you had two weeks left and
Speaker 1: you were trailing by a game you didn't but I'm
Speaker 1: gonna ask you about this, But you handicapped that you
Speaker 1: think Tennessee is is better by eight and this line
Speaker 1: is four, right, and so you're on Tennessee in life.
Speaker 1: But you have to tease this game through game theory?
Speaker 1: Are you better off to tease against what you handicapped
Speaker 1: the game and take Cincinnati up to ten? Then going
Speaker 1: through the zero, well, I'm going with what if I'm
Speaker 1: secure with my handicapping, I have to go with what
Speaker 1: I'm handicapping correct, all right here, So let's do rapid fire.
Speaker 1: Last three questions. One, we'll just go around the horn here.
Speaker 1: If you had to bet aside in each of these
Speaker 1: three of the four but one that you you hated
Speaker 1: the most, that game is okay, everybody believes that Adam YouTube. Okay,
Speaker 1: we all. Okay, Next question, rank for me from most
Speaker 1: likely to least likely the dog's winning outright, Chris, most
Speaker 1: likely to least likely. Oh, I'm gonna go with the least.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go backward. I think Cincinnati is probably the
Speaker 1: least likely. Okay, and San Francisco, Buffalo, the Rams. I
Speaker 1: think the Rams are the most likely dog to win. Okay,
Speaker 1: so Rams, so Rams Buffalo, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Bill's Ram,
Speaker 1: San Francisco, Cincinnati, Dodd, I think the ram are the
Speaker 1: most likely to win as a dog, and then, uh,
Speaker 1: Cincinnati's least likely. I would say Bills, Niners, Rams, Bengals, Bills, Niners, Rams, Bengals.
Speaker 1: I will yeah, I will go. I will go Rams, Bills, Niners, Bengals. Okay,
Speaker 1: and then the final question, let's do that little guessing
Speaker 1: lines thing Mike for the for the championship games, and
Speaker 1: you guys can just call these out. If Tennessee hosts
Speaker 1: Kansas City, the line will be it will Obviously there
Speaker 1: are caveats, right, but let's just say it's nothing crazy happens.
Speaker 1: There's no slam dunk blowout. Let's just say it's kind
Speaker 1: of close to form and there's no major injuries. Just
Speaker 1: play along, Toddy. Tennessee hosting can the City would be
Speaker 1: what Kansas City's favored right by? By how much? Two
Speaker 1: and a half? Two and a half? Interesting? One? One?
Speaker 1: I actually take them really, m I have some people
Speaker 1: think it's some people in Kansas City be favored by
Speaker 1: more than three? Don't you know? Tennessee did Wuffalo seven
Speaker 1: to three. The score was twenty seven to three when
Speaker 1: the two teams played each other. That has to mean something.
Speaker 1: I'm not saying it means what. It has to mean something.
Speaker 1: Uh doesn't mean if Kansas City? I think so if
Speaker 1: Kansas City hosted Buffalo, what would that be? I mean
Speaker 1: if Tennessee you skipped over me? Oh sorry, Tennis, I'm sorry.
Speaker 1: And I thought you were like gonna say three three?
Speaker 1: Oh you will say three three? He's to some people,
Speaker 1: he's my three? Who are they? And what they say?
Speaker 1: If if Tennessee hosts Buffalo, what's that line? Chris Buffalo one?
Speaker 1: I'm saying, yea, Chris made a people, but it will
Speaker 1: be will be less than three. I'll say I want
Speaker 1: to go less than seven. I think it's also right
Speaker 1: around a pick. I mean all these games are going
Speaker 1: to be tight. I tell you what, I'll I make
Speaker 1: it close to a pick. But if the Bills beat
Speaker 1: Kansas City, everyone's gonna want it, and it'll be a
Speaker 1: yester two and a half. Buffalo is minus two and
Speaker 1: it could hit three. All right? And if if if
Speaker 1: Kansas City or Buffalo hosted Cincinnati, what are those numbers?
Speaker 1: Kansas City and Buffalo both together, what would they be?
Speaker 1: Kansas City would be six and a half. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: say seven, Okay, I say six and a half. You
Speaker 1: said seven two, Adam, Buffalo and Buffalo, what do you
Speaker 1: say Kansas City would be? It would be a seven
Speaker 1: even God, I even say maybe seven and a half.
Speaker 1: And Buffalo hosting Cincinnati would be six. Yeah, a little
Speaker 1: less six. I'll say six and a half. Yeah, six
Speaker 1: and a half. I'm with all you guys, all right, NFC.
Speaker 1: Last thing, green Bay hosts the um Tampa Bay Buccaneers,
Speaker 1: because that whole Brady wave is going to be in
Speaker 1: the narrative still they got by the rams two and
Speaker 1: a half. I want to take green Bay right now?
Speaker 1: Can green Bay in the look ahead and half? Chris
Speaker 1: to and a half? You like? Do you think? Yeah?
Speaker 1: I think that's where it would be. What about if
Speaker 1: it's the Rams three and a half through the three? Yeah, okay,
Speaker 1: all right, Chris, you gotta thought. I think that that
Speaker 1: is three? I do too. And the Packers will crush
Speaker 1: the Rams at home and the last one, the last
Speaker 1: one will be if the Niners half full, sorry to
Speaker 1: sorry to body. If the Niners travel to Tampa Bay,
Speaker 1: what will that be? And then the Niners traveling to
Speaker 1: the Rams. What will both of those? What about Florida
Speaker 1: State against North Florida Festival? Now, Diners get three at
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay, get two and a half in l A. Okay, right, numbers,
Speaker 1: good numbers. Okay, you like that? Can I say one thing?
Speaker 1: And I have to h I was sitting talking to
Speaker 1: Matt Metcalf in the book Friday about the National Championship Game.
Speaker 1: Did you tell the people who that is? Mike? People
Speaker 1: don't know who that is? Tell them? He said, he
Speaker 1: has a role in the sports book here at runs
Speaker 1: a sports book. He said, if Georgia had Saban as
Speaker 1: their head coach and Alabama had Kirby, he didn't make
Speaker 1: that game thirteen and a half. Come on, I'm just
Speaker 1: telling you teen and a half that's how much better
Speaker 1: Georgia was talent wise. You know what the name of
Speaker 1: that you know the name of that segment should be hyperbole,
Speaker 1: do you think so? Yes? What about the what about
Speaker 1: the insurance salesman's saying the market when the market with tolerant,
Speaker 1: He's just saying that's what his true number in the
Speaker 1: game would be. I gotta run. Thanks. Thanks all right, guys,
Speaker 1: I think we've done all we can do. Gentlemen, there
Speaker 1: we go. We got all our picks. Thank you Adam
Speaker 1: for coming after your shows. I appreciate it. Man, Thank
Speaker 1: you for doing that to your C B A m
Speaker 1: v P special. Let's see Todd what Todd is? Uh?
Speaker 1: Todd is alluded to. Todd hates more than anything when
Speaker 1: we have segments on on the network. Doesn't have to
Speaker 1: be my show. I do less of it than everybody
Speaker 1: else does. Todd hates when we devote entire segments to
Speaker 1: awards markets. He hates that. Hated to do because John
Speaker 1: is this year. You know, he wiped us three times
Speaker 1: this year. That obviously everyone knows that the more you wipe,
Speaker 1: the more chances you have this year. So it's like ridiculous,
Speaker 1: but you have to understand that, but we have to
Speaker 1: fill a but jillion hours of con tis. I understand
Speaker 1: about schedule and still stay fresh. It's very impressive. Well
Speaker 1: I'm about to die at him though I'm not fresh. Yeah,
Speaker 1: content eyes maybe fresh, but I'm about to die. Yes.
Speaker 1: I leave everything out on the table. Then I go
Speaker 1: home and I go into a fetal position in the
Speaker 1: corner of my apartment by the way, before we leave,
Speaker 1: Can I just ask you, Adam, aside from golf that
Speaker 1: you feel like it's unbeatable because of that, what other
Speaker 1: sports throughout the NFL, because we all know how hard
Speaker 1: that is. What other sport would you like take a
Speaker 1: look at it and go, wait, wait too much. I
Speaker 1: can't do this. It's too hard for me. What what
Speaker 1: would you say besides golf that you said is basically
Speaker 1: just a race. Yeah, I got you. Um, I just
Speaker 1: because of how I operate now, I anything that's like
Speaker 1: really heavily model driven, and I know most of it is.
Speaker 1: But like, like if you take something like like I
Speaker 1: was saying, the w T A in play specifically, so
Speaker 1: like five six years ago, like the like you would
Speaker 1: take like someone like Anna Ivanovich for example, who was
Speaker 1: just deadly when she was down to set, like one
Speaker 1: of the best comeback players ever, and like that was
Speaker 1: always super underpriced and not accounted for, and then a
Speaker 1: lot of data started coming out and like that disappeared immediately,
Speaker 1: and so you were like a lot of those really
Speaker 1: good like subjective angles in tennis, especially in play that
Speaker 1: you could bet a lot of, and now like most
Speaker 1: of those are completely gone. So like that's where it was,
Speaker 1: and now it's it's getting really difficult. So like tennis
Speaker 1: would be one for me personally, a lot of other
Speaker 1: people still have success skill, you have a ton but
Speaker 1: it's just for how I approach it. I find tennis
Speaker 1: now really tough. Um I would say hockey is another
Speaker 1: one that with like the last three to four years,
Speaker 1: with like the advanced stats that have come in and
Speaker 1: expected goals is just brutal. And then it's not like
Speaker 1: like the Premier League and like bigger soccer leagues were
Speaker 1: ever beatable like those kind of but we're always the
Speaker 1: most difficult. But now you're seeing that ripple effect into
Speaker 1: like smaller country domestic leagues too, where it went from
Speaker 1: like you could have just like a really basic like
Speaker 1: knowledge at like a player level and just based on
Speaker 1: lineups and sourcing news. In a lot of these smaller
Speaker 1: domestic leagues, you could find advantage is just knowing like
Speaker 1: twenty to thirty key players and valuing if they're in
Speaker 1: and out. That's all completely gone now too, because you
Speaker 1: can do so much at a player level and do
Speaker 1: it so quickly that it's so difficult to compete with
Speaker 1: that now as well. Geez, Adam, when you put it
Speaker 1: that way, do you ever have thoughts in your head ever?
Speaker 1: Like I gotta hang like, I don't ever. I think
Speaker 1: there might be a shelf life to all of this.
Speaker 1: Every day it's like what they There was an article
Speaker 1: on the New York Times about how AI is destroying
Speaker 1: poker because AI has now taught poker players to play
Speaker 1: the optimum strategy in poker, and I think, really, what
Speaker 1: Adam saying, that's kind of leaking over now into the
Speaker 1: more information that's out there into these sports make them
Speaker 1: more and more unbeatable. Well, so a good story. I
Speaker 1: had Matthew Davidal who I'm sure you guys know, um,
Speaker 1: I was chatting with him on the daily show We're
Speaker 1: doing now, and he we were talking about like in
Speaker 1: play markets in the NFL, and we got into the
Speaker 1: win game, specifically the Buffalo New England game, and I
Speaker 1: was asking him, and I was like, how quickly did
Speaker 1: it take you to adjust to what was actually going
Speaker 1: on the field, because he's writing the programs that set
Speaker 1: the prices for Circa and other books and stuff, and
Speaker 1: he's like, we adjusted to it very quickly. But then
Speaker 1: I was asking him and I was like, what's your
Speaker 1: biggest weakness in a spot like that? And he's like,
Speaker 1: it wasn't the win direction or the team's going or
Speaker 1: adjusting for the quarter prices or anything like that. But
Speaker 1: he's like, it was actually it took the longest to
Speaker 1: adjust to the mac Jones in play completion problems because
Speaker 1: it was just so far out there. Couldn't get to
Speaker 1: a number and justify that price. And so when we're
Speaker 1: going back and forth, he's like, it's getting to the
Speaker 1: point and kind of what I was saying with golf,
Speaker 1: where it's like there are these models that are out
Speaker 1: there and you have to figure out like where they're
Speaker 1: gonna be wrong or what the weaknesses rather than like
Speaker 1: trying to find angles within the games. But so like
Speaker 1: in a case like that, it's like here's this event
Speaker 1: where it's like, there's the wind game and it's completely
Speaker 1: altering everything that's going on. But they're like, there's the
Speaker 1: main event that everyone focus on. It's windy, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: bet the under, like that gets priced in right away.
Speaker 1: But when you like the ripples that come from that,
Speaker 1: where you're going to like, okay, there's the wind, which
Speaker 1: means is it's going to be under Well, then there's
Speaker 1: the quarter prices. Well, then there's the field goal props. Well,
Speaker 1: then there's and you have to go so far out
Speaker 1: now to where it's like, well, actually the wind is
Speaker 1: going to impact all of this, but I'm gonna bet
Speaker 1: under completions on this quarterback because of it. And that's
Speaker 1: where like these these pricing models are becoming the weakest,
Speaker 1: and so that's where you kind of have to hunt now.
Speaker 1: But it's just it's so hard to like creatively think
Speaker 1: to get to that level which in something like but
Speaker 1: I still think it's brutal, but Adam, I still thinking
Speaker 1: football sometimes because they have to be wedded to the
Speaker 1: pregame number so much, and because there's not that many
Speaker 1: games that the modeling is taken into account. There are
Speaker 1: games that are just off. Like for instance, the Rams
Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinal game, it didn't matter what they're gonna make it.
Speaker 1: If you see that early enough, you can catch it,
Speaker 1: like if you can recognize that this game is not
Speaker 1: the way it was supposed to be. I still think
Speaker 1: there are edges in in the uh in the in
Speaker 1: game football. I mean I don't know, I think there
Speaker 1: is two. I think in case like that though, is
Speaker 1: like if you look at the pregame scenario, I think
Speaker 1: there's a lack of data on a team leading by
Speaker 1: twenty one, nothing in that dominating of a fashion at
Speaker 1: home to like accurately set that number. Whereas like, what's that?
Speaker 1: That's hard? I mean in that scenario, I would look
Speaker 1: more team totals is errors own are gonna score two
Speaker 1: touchdowns are more because like for instance, in that game,
Speaker 1: I had under I believe under seventeen and a half
Speaker 1: because I noticed pretty quickly after like two or three
Speaker 1: series Kyler Murray can't move the ball. I'll take under seventeen. Now,
Speaker 1: did that mean I was gonna win? Not for sure,
Speaker 1: Because it all comes down to the garbage time. You
Speaker 1: have to be able to notice are they going to
Speaker 1: prevent because once they're going to prevent, you gotta get
Speaker 1: back on the over of your team total, you know
Speaker 1: what I mean. So you have to watch. It's like
Speaker 1: the Steeler game against Kansas City. When Kansas City was
Speaker 1: trying on defense, they could have stopped the Steelers for
Speaker 1: a hundred years in a row. But as soon as
Speaker 1: the Kansas City got ahead by enough, you're like, oh,
Speaker 1: now they're gonna let the Steelers score. And that's exactly
Speaker 1: what happened. I think any of us who watches football
Speaker 1: could see that Kansas City went into a massive prevent
Speaker 1: defense once they got ahead seven, and I feel like
Speaker 1: that's where the edges are in realizing, Okay, how is
Speaker 1: the game fundamentally shifted? Just now? It's interesting because okay,
Speaker 1: I think you're right, but just showing how people think
Speaker 1: about this differently. So in that scenario Monday night, I
Speaker 1: went ams team total over in the second half because
Speaker 1: to me, like a fundamental difference in playoffs versus the
Speaker 1: regular season, which I think is tough to price in
Speaker 1: play is that teams don't stop playing on offense as
Speaker 1: much as they do in the regular season, and so
Speaker 1: I think we see a stark difference of like the
Speaker 1: Bills or the Chiefs or the Rams. They kept scoring.
Speaker 1: They didn't stop. They were still The Rams are running
Speaker 1: throwback passes in the middle of the third quarter, up
Speaker 1: three scores. You're not seeing that regular season. But like
Speaker 1: where you went to that angle of looking at the
Speaker 1: team under going the other way because of the prevent defense,
Speaker 1: Like my head went the other way where it's like, well,
Speaker 1: this team is going to keep scoring, and it's betting
Speaker 1: on a team that you maybe not. You're not making
Speaker 1: that bet in the regular season. And let me interject
Speaker 1: because that that's an interesting sort of nuanced conversation where
Speaker 1: Todd you're talking about recognizing defenses, and there's a difference
Speaker 1: of opinion even there in terms of how a team
Speaker 1: will play it playoffs, regular season. What about something much
Speaker 1: more defined, like in a baseball game, will blowout baseball
Speaker 1: game where they've run out of pictures and they throw
Speaker 1: in a skill position player to go on the mound.
Speaker 1: Those in game totals don't appear to me anyway to it.
Speaker 1: They're getting they're getting better, absolutely getting better. They were
Speaker 1: totally terrible. And we would go on seventh and he
Speaker 1: watching the book and be like I was the amount
Speaker 1: of text that get thrown around in those moments that
Speaker 1: we're amazing, but like that to me is okay, That
Speaker 1: to me is a less is a much less debatable thing,
Speaker 1: right that to everybody gets, oh, this guy is not
Speaker 1: here to pitch. This could get ugly. Now. We've seen
Speaker 1: sometimes where they've been successful and it's always amusing, but
Speaker 1: largely you immediately go and you're like, oh, it's this
Speaker 1: is over. Like this is not adjusted as much as
Speaker 1: it should and they're getting it's I think it's a
Speaker 1: great example of it's getting better. But it's like, to
Speaker 1: your point taught earlier, it's like, you can't really adjust
Speaker 1: something like that enough, can you? Maybe you can can,
Speaker 1: Sometimes you can't. Yeah, And that's the thing about football
Speaker 1: is like Wake Force played Army this year in college football.
Speaker 1: I don't know if you guys watch that game, but
Speaker 1: it was it was so obvious that there's there is
Speaker 1: no number possible based off the original number that can
Speaker 1: be right. B y U Virginia was another game just
Speaker 1: like that. Every single drive was a touchdown and it
Speaker 1: wasn't even hard touched on. It was like pass for
Speaker 1: twelve yards, pass for twenty five yards, past for twelve yards.
Speaker 1: You know, it was so ridiculous, and they still have
Speaker 1: to be wedded. Now they can adjust it up a
Speaker 1: little bit, but if there's three quarters of the game
Speaker 1: left and the game was a sixty, there's only forty
Speaker 1: five more points that they can can they bump at
Speaker 1: the forty eight. Sure they can make it forty eight,
Speaker 1: but they can't make it fifty eight. And that's what
Speaker 1: they should have done in some of those games, you
Speaker 1: know what I mean. And that's where I think there's
Speaker 1: there's there's advantages, you know, especially also in the in
Speaker 1: the team totaling. If you see I won so much
Speaker 1: this year, especially against college teams team total under recognizing
Speaker 1: after two or three sets, this team is averaging one
Speaker 1: point five yards of play, they're done, and the other
Speaker 1: team is not going to let them get more than
Speaker 1: two touchdown that you could get over fourteen and a half.
Speaker 1: You almost have to take the under fourteen and a
Speaker 1: half in that scenario, you know what I mean. And
Speaker 1: of course there's things that can be the two point conversion,
Speaker 1: there's different things that can can hurt you, but I
Speaker 1: really feel there's there's there's angles there. Yeah, And that's
Speaker 1: like if you're talking like a new better who's just
Speaker 1: starting now, like they're never going to have the same
Speaker 1: experience as they're here eight nineteen. It's gone forever, and
Speaker 1: so it's like, where do you start now? Aside from
Speaker 1: having the obvious, like as many books as you can,
Speaker 1: as many prices compare to get the best number, it's
Speaker 1: like find the games with the situation that's like the
Speaker 1: outlier and that's weird where something's going on. It gives
Speaker 1: you kind of like these fringe ripple scenarios off of
Speaker 1: some event that changes the game, because that's where you're
Speaker 1: gonna find value in today's betting world. And and even
Speaker 1: and even then, it's right, there's no still no guarantees.
Speaker 1: There was you know, Arena sable Banka last night. I
Speaker 1: was on air, so I didn't get I wasn't part
Speaker 1: of this, but apparently she had the yips with her
Speaker 1: serve in the first set last night, and people were
Speaker 1: going nuts like, oh my god, you can't but she
Speaker 1: lost the first set sixth one, and then of course
Speaker 1: she like you know, she regrouped that she won the match.
Speaker 1: I'm sure a lot of people lost their shirt on
Speaker 1: that too, you know, thinking oh well, you can't win
Speaker 1: them all, you know, But that's my point. Right, Even
Speaker 1: then with all the advantages we might be able to identify,
Speaker 1: the gig is you're not gonna win them all, right,
Speaker 1: that's it. It can still come back and hurt you.
Speaker 1: And and a bet that you weren't even gonna make
Speaker 1: him the first place. So I would say you put
Speaker 1: yourself in like an average Better Shoes who's like trying
Speaker 1: to do that, and it's like they going they bet
Speaker 1: a season of NFL, and like really, when you're betting
Speaker 1: the NFL and an average Better Shoes like you don't
Speaker 1: you you feel completely out of control, like you don't
Speaker 1: know what you're betting on. But like what you just describe,
Speaker 1: if like more people looked for that and bet on
Speaker 1: things like that, Like that's the type of betting scenario
Speaker 1: and angle you remember for a long time. You feel
Speaker 1: that there's some like that you can actually like put
Speaker 1: value on and at least at something, whereas so much
Speaker 1: of this is this team is eight and two on
Speaker 1: Tuesday's like all those trends, and it's just it's so
Speaker 1: much more valuable to think, like what you're saying is
Speaker 1: I'm glad you brought that up at him because it
Speaker 1: triggers and this is probably how we should edit it
Speaker 1: because the trend thing. How many people in mainstream media
Speaker 1: or maybe in gambling media brought up the fact that
Speaker 1: the Arizona Cardinals were aid and one on the road
Speaker 1: going into that game against the Rams, right like it
Speaker 1: was the thing everybody said. And then I let me,
Speaker 1: let me ask for your prediction. What percentage of those
Speaker 1: people that brought it up before the game never mentioned
Speaker 1: it once again afterwards? It's gotta be them. I'll take
Speaker 1: the over, Yes, take the over. That says everything. It's fascinating.
Speaker 1: I do want to say. I do want to add though,
Speaker 1: when you're talking about finding advantages, I think the the
Speaker 1: sport that sticks out like a sore thumb with volatility
Speaker 1: and and nuggets to be found is mm A. And
Speaker 1: I know m m A is not a people's wheelhouse
Speaker 1: in general, and quite frankly, I had no interest in
Speaker 1: it either, and I don't. I mean, but let me
Speaker 1: tell you that those markets are all over the place,
Speaker 1: and you if you there, it'll close up. But it's
Speaker 1: gonna take a while. There's just so many fights and
Speaker 1: there's so much volatility. Uh, there's value to be found
Speaker 1: in there if you put your time in there, except
Speaker 1: if I get to the point where after that, m
Speaker 1: m a, I'm quit in gambling because I can't watch it.
Speaker 1: So I mean I could agree with you. I'm short, Chris.
Speaker 1: There's there's tremendous value and but it's just like it's
Speaker 1: just unwatchable for me. I just can't watch two human
Speaker 1: beings brutalizing each other. I would much rather they put
Speaker 1: helmets on and do it at the goal line. Thank you,
Speaker 1: thank you. I wish that, guys. I appreciate it. We
Speaker 1: gotta run u Adam churn off from the simple handicap
Speaker 1: doing all this stuff. It covers. You said you have
Speaker 1: a daily show now to Adam. Yeah, we're experimenting with
Speaker 1: some stuff for the playoffs, so we just have it's
Speaker 1: basically is it. It's described Turnoff and Friends, but it's
Speaker 1: titled Covers Daily, So I'm just having having people. That's
Speaker 1: what Mikey calls the numbers game. He goes killing friends
Speaker 1: in the morning, So that I take that very kindly.
Speaker 1: I like that. Actually, uh, I think it was a knock,
Speaker 1: but I actually enjoyed that. Um and then the one
Speaker 1: in you and Chris do it every Thursday during NFL season.
Speaker 1: You do your football post. You're You're everywhere man everywhere. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I got it, got busy down the stretch. I'm waiting
Speaker 1: for three more weeks ago. Me too. I'm the same
Speaker 1: way and listen, by the way, I just want to
Speaker 1: say this. I am one grateful. It is the life
Speaker 1: I always wanted. So I'm not. I don't want anybody
Speaker 1: for some like yeah that I'm that, I'm in any
Speaker 1: way complaining Las Vegas, Chris, Chris, Chris. Before we leave, Chris,
Speaker 1: play tennis. I used to, okay, because you could come
Speaker 1: out and be part of our Las Vegas Invitational. I
Speaker 1: might just do that. But you know, raquetball ruined my
Speaker 1: tennis game. So oh interesting. When I was a kid,
Speaker 1: I played a lot of tennis and I wasn't that
Speaker 1: bad um and then I played racquetball as like a teenager,
Speaker 1: and that ruined my tennis. Get maybe a conversation, you've
Speaker 1: got the you've got the headband hair. I could see
Speaker 1: he was a great nineteen seventies top ten tennis play
Speaker 1: and I had the tennis rand get throwing down pad
Speaker 1: the oh no to the invitation the wooden racket, tube
Speaker 1: socks rolled up would be awesome. Wants to play me
Speaker 1: again in the March and I made the line eleven
Speaker 1: and a half. Hey, Tod, can I just wrap it
Speaker 1: up and we get this conversation Las Vegas, Chris, thank
Speaker 1: you for being here. Multiple contest winner, always a contender
Speaker 1: in every contest. Seems to find a way to win,
Speaker 1: whatever year. Todd wished Evans mom's cork addict skill. Alexander,
Speaker 1: thanks for listening. Best of luck Divisional round. Thanks for
Speaker 1: listening to the Megapot