WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2022 NFL MegaPod Divisional Round Weekend Preview 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:14.120 Check it down Man, Now down Man. Thursday morning, January two, 0:00:14.200 --> 0:00:18.439 It is the Beating the Book Podcast Megapod Division Round 0:00:19.000 --> 0:00:23.320 live from the d Our Headquarters. Uh. Quite the crowd 0:00:23.360 --> 0:00:25.279 once again here at the day as we do this 0:00:25.560 --> 0:00:29.000 at thirty a and Pacific. On my left, the vice 0:00:29.000 --> 0:00:32.960 president Operations at Circus Sports, Derek Stephen's conciliary and of 0:00:33.000 --> 0:00:36.440 course half of the odds on show along with them 0:00:36.440 --> 0:00:39.720 all show at Visa. It's Michael Palm. Hello, Michael, good morning. 0:00:39.960 --> 0:00:41.920 Did you enjoy your sausas with muffing with egg and 0:00:42.280 --> 0:00:46.760 hash brown? Delicious? Bad for I didn't know Chris was 0:00:46.760 --> 0:00:49.240 going to be here. Chris, I come every time. That 0:00:49.360 --> 0:00:51.560 might be my last meal, like if they if I'm 0:00:51.760 --> 0:00:53.400 you know, pick your last meal, it could be a 0:00:53.440 --> 0:00:56.280 sausage McMuffin with egg. It's my go to order here 0:00:56.320 --> 0:00:59.600 the morning. That's the voice of Las Vegas, Chris multiple 0:00:59.680 --> 0:01:02.840 Heady Happen contest winner here in Las Vegas at the 0:01:02.920 --> 0:01:07.280 Palms at the Wind back in the day. UH. College 0:01:07.280 --> 0:01:11.800 football last man Standing second and fifth and circu not 0:01:12.000 --> 0:01:14.600 this year but last year. Then this year had the 0:01:14.680 --> 0:01:18.399 nerve to chop for NFL Last Man Standing at stations 0:01:18.440 --> 0:01:20.520 glad to have you here, man, thanks for doing this again. 0:01:20.680 --> 0:01:22.200 It's good to be here. It's good to get out 0:01:22.200 --> 0:01:24.840 of the house and see people. Did I get your 0:01:24.840 --> 0:01:26.560 whole resume down? Did I get that pretty much all 0:01:26.560 --> 0:01:28.720 of it? I don't know. I don't know. Todd Wish 0:01:28.760 --> 0:01:30.679 now from his mom's cork attic in Pittsburgh, PA. How 0:01:30.720 --> 0:01:35.040 you doing, Toddy? Hey, hey, hey, So if I'm in 0:01:35.120 --> 0:01:37.440 Vegas at the end of March or is your Chilly 0:01:37.520 --> 0:01:39.280 is going to be good enough to play tennis? Finally, 0:01:39.280 --> 0:01:42.800 he yeah, it will be okay. There will be lines available. 0:01:43.160 --> 0:01:45.520 And all I will say, folks, is no matter how 0:01:45.600 --> 0:01:48.120 much they inflate the lines on me versus my good 0:01:48.120 --> 0:01:51.920 friend Mikey and Gilly still lay the chalk. I haven't 0:01:51.960 --> 0:01:55.720 played in two years. So there you go. That's the 0:01:55.840 --> 0:01:58.640 that's the issue with that. Um So wait, I have 0:01:58.680 --> 0:02:00.880 a question for Mike and Todd for and Christopher give 0:02:00.920 --> 0:02:03.240 me for for going to the to the board here, 0:02:03.840 --> 0:02:06.480 but what did we do with division round? Do we 0:02:06.520 --> 0:02:08.600 still give three picks? Is that what we did last year? 0:02:09.280 --> 0:02:10.880 So so I don't know what we did, but I'm 0:02:10.919 --> 0:02:14.200 suggesting we go down to two with that. Let's go 0:02:14.240 --> 0:02:17.720 to two picks this week, says the leader. No, I'm 0:02:17.760 --> 0:02:20.760 the leader. Yeah, what do you say? What do you think? 0:02:21.280 --> 0:02:23.720 I don't think he's Oh, I don't know if you 0:02:23.800 --> 0:02:25.840 what you asked? Mike? What's the password here? Who knows? 0:02:27.200 --> 0:02:31.760 What do you say about the podcast? Everybody? Mike? If 0:02:31.760 --> 0:02:33.520 that's the case, he's just trying to run out the funk. 0:02:33.520 --> 0:02:35.959 We should increase it to six picks. I'm thinking I'm 0:02:36.000 --> 0:02:37.960 thinking eight. You got to give a side in total 0:02:38.040 --> 0:02:41.600 on every game. If we go down to two, I'm 0:02:41.600 --> 0:02:44.360 your winner. By the way, I have the best record 0:02:44.360 --> 0:02:46.839 of the bunch. What about next week? Next week? Oh? 0:02:46.880 --> 0:02:48.480 They're still I mean, but you guys can't catch me 0:02:48.520 --> 0:02:50.320 at this point, can you? For what? I'm one game 0:02:50.360 --> 0:02:54.480 behind your one game? I went three and a Yeah, 0:02:54.520 --> 0:02:57.600 but weren't you like distance behind it? I made up 0:02:57.600 --> 0:02:59.040 two and a half games. I must have been three 0:02:59.040 --> 0:03:02.600 and a half games. So what are we doing? Two 0:03:02.600 --> 0:03:06.040 picks is fun? Okay? And uh the teaser? What's the teaser? 0:03:06.080 --> 0:03:07.600 We're very close on? Well, first of all, give all 0:03:07.639 --> 0:03:14.240 the standings then okay, so mikey is twenty seven, twenty 0:03:14.320 --> 0:03:16.600 nine and one. Can we do this in order of 0:03:16.840 --> 0:03:23.440 like like a normal personal lists. Okay, you were eight 0:03:23.520 --> 0:03:28.040 and one, Mikey is twenty seven, twenty nine, and why 0:03:28.360 --> 0:03:31.239 behind what the hell happened? I three and thirty four? 0:03:33.560 --> 0:03:37.800 You're like this, You're like in the FIA feeling better 0:03:37.840 --> 0:03:41.280 about my teaser, Chris, Chris, I had to go off 0:03:41.320 --> 0:03:43.160 of them, otherwise I had no way to come back 0:03:43.960 --> 0:03:46.400 that what happened good strategy, and then the teasers was 0:03:46.480 --> 0:03:48.560 fifty on a second. I was a solid fifty and 0:03:48.600 --> 0:03:52.960 forty in my millions, and the teasers I was. That's 0:03:53.000 --> 0:03:57.280 why it's fifty bad? Mikey, is that bad? Okay? So 0:03:57.360 --> 0:03:59.720 why do you gotta why do you gotta just you 0:03:59.720 --> 0:04:03.600 know whatever? Okay? Teasers? Right now, the records are me 0:04:03.760 --> 0:04:06.440 eleven and eight and the two losers and eight and 0:04:06.480 --> 0:04:08.840 one two losers a half game back now all of 0:04:08.880 --> 0:04:14.240 a sudden eight one Michael Palm and Gilly the iceman, 0:04:14.400 --> 0:04:17.919 who are very condescending. Anyways, that's what it is, and 0:04:18.000 --> 0:04:20.520 teasers is very important, obviously, and that's why I'm gonna 0:04:20.520 --> 0:04:22.240 be all right. So Chris, before we give our thoughts 0:04:22.279 --> 0:04:25.680 on the divisional round games, you just indicated right there 0:04:25.800 --> 0:04:29.440 that you did not have the greatest football season. Ever, 0:04:30.800 --> 0:04:33.440 is it fair to say that it just got real 0:04:33.520 --> 0:04:36.920 scorely this year? With COVID and with late injury reports? 0:04:36.960 --> 0:04:38.760 What would you say was the difference this year? Or 0:04:38.800 --> 0:04:41.479 can you even define such a thing? Oh? I you know, 0:04:41.560 --> 0:04:45.240 for me, you know, I was really unhappy, uh for 0:04:45.279 --> 0:04:48.520 a while, and now I've started to realize I should 0:04:48.520 --> 0:04:50.880 be happy that I'm just hovering around even. I was 0:04:50.920 --> 0:04:52.839 actually up in the night to one in three last 0:04:52.880 --> 0:04:56.240 week and now I'm like right around even, you know, 0:04:56.360 --> 0:04:59.599 trying to hold my head above water. But whatever could 0:04:59.600 --> 0:05:03.360 go seems to have gone wrong this year. I mean it. 0:05:05.720 --> 0:05:09.160 You know, you have to take coin coin toss games 0:05:09.200 --> 0:05:11.640 with stride. I I got a lot of breaks last year, 0:05:11.640 --> 0:05:13.640 and I said that all along. If you don't get lucky, 0:05:13.960 --> 0:05:17.280 you can't have seasons like that. But uh, it's the 0:05:17.520 --> 0:05:19.919 verse this year. So I'm you know, it's just awful, 0:05:20.800 --> 0:05:23.880 uh in that respect. But that's okay. It's you know, hey, 0:05:23.880 --> 0:05:25.640 that's part of gambling. You take that in stride. You 0:05:25.640 --> 0:05:27.200 don't piss a moan about it and you don't whine 0:05:27.240 --> 0:05:31.240 about it, and uh uh but I've fought against that, 0:05:31.480 --> 0:05:35.120 and uh, I believe the metrics are not following suit. 0:05:35.839 --> 0:05:38.880 Uh in most cases the entire season, I'm seeing an 0:05:38.880 --> 0:05:42.440 inverse of generally people that don't fare well in NFL 0:05:42.520 --> 0:05:44.640 having a lot more success. I think the books had 0:05:45.160 --> 0:05:50.880 UH far more bad weekends than in years past. And 0:05:50.880 --> 0:05:53.720 and it's an anomaly. And that's fine. I can live 0:05:53.720 --> 0:05:55.479 with that. If this is gonna be my worst season 0:05:56.080 --> 0:05:59.400 UH in years, and I'm and I'm I can still 0:05:59.440 --> 0:06:02.440 be up for the year. Uh. I can live with 0:06:02.480 --> 0:06:04.800 that because very and it's hard to fight. I mean, 0:06:04.880 --> 0:06:08.320 some people's you know, bad season. This year is really bad. 0:06:08.520 --> 0:06:12.320 And and Roxy Roxborough still said out loud in public, 0:06:12.360 --> 0:06:14.360 he goes, I thought, you know, I used to say 0:06:14.360 --> 0:06:16.200 that no one could beat the NFL, but Las Vegas 0:06:16.279 --> 0:06:19.360 Chris may have proven me wrong. So there it is. Also, 0:06:19.440 --> 0:06:22.920 remember any hundred picks is such a small sample. Side 0:06:23.040 --> 0:06:25.760 people think one hundred picks is a lot of picks. 0:06:25.800 --> 0:06:28.880 It's nothing. No, try a thousand picks. Then you start 0:06:28.920 --> 0:06:32.160 to get into some hundred picks is absolutely nothing. So 0:06:32.520 --> 0:06:37.599 you've got you know, you're evens Mikey Stellar nine and 0:06:37.640 --> 0:06:40.000 one is not a lot of picks, even your twenty 0:06:40.040 --> 0:06:41.800 three and thirty four and not a lot of Yes, 0:06:42.160 --> 0:06:44.800 that one too, by the way, And by the way, 0:06:44.880 --> 0:06:47.240 I had my best NFL in game season this year. 0:06:47.320 --> 0:06:51.120 So again I caution you folks, especially playoff games, be 0:06:51.279 --> 0:06:53.800 careful and if you wait till the end game, you 0:06:53.839 --> 0:06:57.559 have such a better chance. Alright. So that being said, 0:06:57.720 --> 0:07:01.040 we're doing two pre flops per person. Uh and at 0:07:01.040 --> 0:07:05.200 Belt Divisional round. After a wild card weekend where four 0:07:05.240 --> 0:07:09.840 of the six games were completely done by halftime just 0:07:10.040 --> 0:07:12.800 for absolute clunkers. A fifth game the Bengals and the 0:07:12.880 --> 0:07:15.440 Raiders that was marred by i'll use the word again, 0:07:15.560 --> 0:07:18.880 clunky officiating. Mikey, I know you can appreciate that kind 0:07:18.880 --> 0:07:21.400 of thing. Uh. And then the only other game that was, 0:07:21.480 --> 0:07:23.280 you know, the only other game in San Francisco DWLLS 0:07:23.320 --> 0:07:26.160 that was fun. Obviously gaps on both sides of Kyle 0:07:26.160 --> 0:07:29.720 Shanahan and Mike McCarthy famously, but that was the one 0:07:29.800 --> 0:07:32.040 game that really sort of played out nicely. But that 0:07:32.160 --> 0:07:33.880 was a tough week to get through. We're gonna you know, 0:07:33.960 --> 0:07:35.720 I don't want to complain too much because we're gonna 0:07:35.840 --> 0:07:38.240 pine for football here and I've got a couple of weeks. 0:07:38.600 --> 0:07:41.119 But um, that was a tough weekend. But at least 0:07:41.120 --> 0:07:43.080 what it might have done by getting rid of the 0:07:43.080 --> 0:07:46.440 stinky teams talking about Philly and Pittsburgh and Arizona and 0:07:46.760 --> 0:07:52.560 uh the Eagle. Who else was the fourth team of Patriots? Patriots? Well, 0:07:52.560 --> 0:07:54.040 they weren't. You know what, they weren't if you power 0:07:54.080 --> 0:07:56.240 ranked them, they weren't my top eight either. I think 0:07:56.240 --> 0:07:58.200 we have the right eight teams. I think these are 0:07:58.280 --> 0:08:00.240 the best eight teams in football. You don't think so? No. 0:08:00.360 --> 0:08:03.240 I want to pose this question if you had to 0:08:03.280 --> 0:08:05.160 go one way or the other, and Todd you can 0:08:05.200 --> 0:08:08.960 answer this first. Would you rather see an eight team 0:08:09.000 --> 0:08:11.400 playoff where nobody gets a buy? Or go back to 0:08:11.440 --> 0:08:13.679 the six team format where the one and two seats 0:08:13.720 --> 0:08:18.080 get a buy? I like the six teams better. I 0:08:18.080 --> 0:08:19.960 mean no, Okay, let me put it this this week. 0:08:20.080 --> 0:08:23.120 The better in me likes more games, obviously, more games, 0:08:23.200 --> 0:08:27.400 more opportunities in game. The the fan in me likes 0:08:27.440 --> 0:08:30.280 the six games better. I don't like this extra Again, 0:08:30.480 --> 0:08:33.840 remember in the six game format we had the Seattle Seahawks, 0:08:33.960 --> 0:08:36.120 or this in the Saints game. Didn't they have like 0:08:36.160 --> 0:08:38.840 a seven eight and one record or some ridiculous record 0:08:39.120 --> 0:08:41.200 they got in the playoffs as the sixth seed and 0:08:41.280 --> 0:08:44.160 one that game. I like a six team playoffs. I 0:08:44.160 --> 0:08:46.680 always go for less playoff teams than more player and 0:08:46.679 --> 0:08:49.600 I think it's baseball makes the mistakes and opens up 0:08:49.640 --> 0:08:53.200 their playoffs to more teams. It is just gonna be, 0:08:53.640 --> 0:08:57.439 you know, ridiculous, and you know, well, anyways, it's totally 0:08:57.520 --> 0:08:59.600 uninteresting sport. Thank god you can bet on it. But 0:09:00.040 --> 0:09:03.440 if you uh for me, is always bad. I don't like. 0:09:03.600 --> 0:09:06.800 I think Todd answered that perfectly. I think I think 0:09:06.840 --> 0:09:10.360 you h everything you said about being a better Yes, 0:09:10.400 --> 0:09:13.400 but from a fan's perspective, and it makes sense intuitively, right, 0:09:13.600 --> 0:09:17.440 if you get three six, four five matchups, you will 0:09:17.480 --> 0:09:21.160 have better football games to expand it to a seven team, 0:09:21.160 --> 0:09:23.120 which is just on the edge of having half the 0:09:23.160 --> 0:09:25.800 teams in your conference in the playoffs, you are bound 0:09:25.800 --> 0:09:28.800 to get to seven games that are awful. And none 0:09:28.800 --> 0:09:31.640 of us believe that the Pittsburgh Steelers of the Philadelphia 0:09:31.640 --> 0:09:34.280 Eagles were playoff teams. Like when we think of a 0:09:34.559 --> 0:09:37.400 NFL team that is worthy of the playoffs, those teams 0:09:37.400 --> 0:09:41.280 don't leap off the page. And and with apologies that 0:09:41.360 --> 0:09:43.480 Patriots and the Cardinals who also put up clunkers, but 0:09:43.679 --> 0:09:45.520 I think we all think that the Patriots and Cardinals 0:09:45.920 --> 0:09:48.720 were vastly better teams by and large than the Eagles 0:09:48.720 --> 0:09:50.960 and the Steelers were. Now will work out perfectly that 0:09:51.040 --> 0:09:53.480 cleanly where the seventh seed is so much worse than 0:09:53.480 --> 0:09:55.920 the six each and every year? Probably not. But remember, 0:09:56.160 --> 0:09:59.000 if the Niners don't come back from seventeen points against 0:09:59.000 --> 0:10:01.440 the Rams in Week eight teen, we're subjected to not 0:10:01.440 --> 0:10:04.480 only the Equals but also the Saints as well. So 0:10:04.760 --> 0:10:07.679 I'm totally with Todd's answer. I think it's perfectly answered you. 0:10:08.920 --> 0:10:12.080 That's that's why I suggested I don't like the seven teams. 0:10:12.120 --> 0:10:15.160 I think it's deluded the playoffs. Do you agree with 0:10:15.200 --> 0:10:17.119 I'll tell you what. I don't even like the seventeenth 0:10:17.120 --> 0:10:19.760 week of football. I mean I like it again, I 0:10:19.880 --> 0:10:23.280 like it, forbid it, but it's too many games, Okay, 0:10:23.440 --> 0:10:26.640 just too many games. I've said this in different ways 0:10:26.640 --> 0:10:30.720 all year. Don't you feel like adding the seventeenth game 0:10:31.440 --> 0:10:37.160 in some way triggered NFL teams not necessarily to go 0:10:37.200 --> 0:10:44.040 into load management, but that it almost mentally triggered something 0:10:44.120 --> 0:10:46.280 where they were like, you know what, we can't go 0:10:46.440 --> 0:10:49.240 full throttle on all these games. I use the Bills. 0:10:49.280 --> 0:10:51.560 In his example, You're you're not in Chris, Oh yeah. 0:10:51.559 --> 0:10:54.200 I think I think we're due for a change in strategy. 0:10:54.880 --> 0:10:56.880 You know, we're obviously going to see an eighteenth game. 0:10:57.040 --> 0:10:58.920 We can't avoid that. They should have just done it 0:10:58.960 --> 0:11:01.320 all at once. And I think you're gonna have to 0:11:01.400 --> 0:11:05.520 have these teams start to have two quarterbacks and learn 0:11:05.559 --> 0:11:07.400 how to play with two quarterbacks. You can't keep a 0:11:07.440 --> 0:11:11.520 quarterback healthy for you know, eighteen games plus playoffs. Uh. 0:11:11.559 --> 0:11:14.439 That's which would completely change the sport as we know it. 0:11:14.440 --> 0:11:17.040 It's gonna change it. And you know, I don't understand 0:11:17.040 --> 0:11:20.000 why these teams are. I mean, there's nothing wrong with 0:11:20.120 --> 0:11:23.000 having two decent quarterbacks. And I think teams that can 0:11:23.000 --> 0:11:27.160 get a great backup uh and actually play them intentionally 0:11:27.200 --> 0:11:29.840 every now and then, uh, and give their quarterbacks from 0:11:29.880 --> 0:11:32.560 time off, I think they're going to be at an advantage. 0:11:32.800 --> 0:11:35.520 You know, Tampa Bay's plan was probably going to be 0:11:35.679 --> 0:11:37.960 that if they didn't, you know, hit so many injuries, 0:11:38.679 --> 0:11:40.760 uh throughout the season, I think that you would have 0:11:40.800 --> 0:11:43.439 seen them sitting like the Lakers and the Nets doing basketball. 0:11:43.840 --> 0:11:46.120 The Bills are a great example Todd's sorry, it's sorta 0:11:46.160 --> 0:11:47.760 jump on here. But your point is great, which is 0:11:48.240 --> 0:11:50.440 that I lost my survivor play on the Bills playing 0:11:50.480 --> 0:11:52.880 the Jags. The Jags beat him nine to six. Then 0:11:52.920 --> 0:11:55.240 remember the Bill's first performance of that wins World game 0:11:55.240 --> 0:11:57.720 against the Patriots where Josh Allen didn't even run like 0:11:57.760 --> 0:12:00.200 they refused to run Josh Allen that entire game. If 0:12:00.200 --> 0:12:02.400 they run it five times, they probably win that game. 0:12:02.880 --> 0:12:05.679 You know, every time they do that. And you think 0:12:05.720 --> 0:12:08.559 about that Buffalo Bills team versus the one that we 0:12:08.600 --> 0:12:13.120 saw here last week, those are there's nothing even relatable 0:12:13.160 --> 0:12:16.480 about those two outfits, and so I just think that 0:12:16.480 --> 0:12:19.480 that's new to us. I I absolutely agree with you 0:12:19.520 --> 0:12:24.079 that the seventeenth game is too much. It did something. 0:12:24.120 --> 0:12:27.680 I think it did something to the fiber of the league. 0:12:27.840 --> 0:12:32.079 Not to be too dramatic about it, it's six more football. 0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:34.600 I mean, think about that. If it was a baseball season, 0:12:34.640 --> 0:12:36.880 would that be another twelve games, would have a hundred 0:12:36.920 --> 0:12:39.600 and seventy four games season, Where if it was an 0:12:39.679 --> 0:12:42.640 NBA basketball season to be an additional what six more 0:12:42.679 --> 0:12:46.720 games games? It's a tremendous amount more more. You know, 0:12:46.960 --> 0:12:51.920 it's too much anyway, it's six times. It's not even ten. 0:12:52.520 --> 0:13:00.240 It's six. Isn't it one game divided by seven? Yeah, 0:13:00.800 --> 0:13:05.880 so that's it's not it's not even. It's not either. 0:13:05.920 --> 0:13:09.160 It's not eleven ten percent of six team might get 0:13:09.240 --> 0:13:11.839 it's eleven one point six. Yeah, he's right. What are 0:13:11.840 --> 0:13:16.559 you talking about? Todd is right? Six team? So five 0:13:17.200 --> 0:13:20.360 is eight? No, if you read six percent is about 0:13:20.559 --> 0:13:22.880 eleven or twelve, it's about ten ten and a half. 0:13:23.600 --> 0:13:28.480 It's not twelve. Sorry for making it. It's three quarters. 0:13:28.480 --> 0:13:30.920 I made it seven point five to me because you're 0:13:30.960 --> 0:13:35.800 all about math and charisma. Sorry, ten point six point 0:13:35.840 --> 0:13:43.319 six charisma, charismatic believe can you place? Of course? And 0:13:43.400 --> 0:13:45.240 I have another follow up that I want to ask you. 0:13:45.440 --> 0:13:46.719 This is what Chris loves when we don't get to 0:13:46.760 --> 0:13:50.920 the picks. Ye, Chris opinion. I wanted Chris's opinion on 0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:52.720 this too, because I bet you he has an opinion. 0:13:54.640 --> 0:13:57.959 I remember you saying that you used Buffalo against Jacksonville 0:13:57.960 --> 0:14:00.840 because you thought they were for gazy. I thought, who 0:14:00.920 --> 0:14:06.640 was phazing? And you thought that. Have you changed your 0:14:06.640 --> 0:14:10.000 opinion on that? No? I think I was. I think 0:14:10.040 --> 0:14:14.880 I'm correct. Buffalo has Buffalo has had the easiest schedule 0:14:14.960 --> 0:14:18.360 in football, like they have played if you go through it. 0:14:18.559 --> 0:14:20.680 This also gets back to my Tennessee Titans point, which 0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:22.560 I think I made this morning on a number scape, 0:14:22.600 --> 0:14:27.200 which I think is the biggest sort of under like 0:14:27.520 --> 0:14:29.880 not talked about enough story in football this year. Like 0:14:29.960 --> 0:14:31.800 if Tom Brady winning the Super Bowl first year away 0:14:31.800 --> 0:14:33.720 from New England was the big story in football last year. 0:14:34.080 --> 0:14:36.480 I think if Tennessee wins this week, if they lose 0:14:36.520 --> 0:14:38.200 this week, different story. But if they win at least 0:14:38.200 --> 0:14:41.080 get to their championship game. I think the biggest underrated 0:14:41.120 --> 0:14:44.600 story in football is the Tennessee Titans being the number 0:14:44.680 --> 0:14:49.040 one seed. This relates back to the Buffalo question and 0:14:49.480 --> 0:14:52.520 and the fact that the market still hates them is 0:14:52.600 --> 0:14:54.800 a fascinating point to me because I don't remember a 0:14:54.960 --> 0:14:57.720 number one seed that has been this disrespected. Because usually 0:14:57.720 --> 0:14:59.280 if if a team like this, by the way, there's 0:14:59.280 --> 0:15:01.360 only one team like it's a by right now these days, 0:15:01.680 --> 0:15:03.880 the fact that Tennessee ended up with the number one seed, 0:15:04.560 --> 0:15:07.080 if people underrate them, usually the knock is, ah, well, 0:15:07.120 --> 0:15:09.840 they didn't play anybody. No. In fact, they not only 0:15:09.960 --> 0:15:13.840 played everybody, They beat everybody, right. They beat Buffalo, they 0:15:13.920 --> 0:15:16.240 beat San Francisco, They beat the Colts twice, they beat 0:15:16.320 --> 0:15:19.120 the Rams, Uh, they beat the Chiefs, And then the 0:15:19.160 --> 0:15:21.080 other knock would be like, oh, well, maybe the teams 0:15:21.080 --> 0:15:24.120 they played had all the injuries. No, it was Tennessee 0:15:24.240 --> 0:15:26.680 who had all the injuries, right, they had their best 0:15:26.720 --> 0:15:28.560 player was out nine weeks and their second best player 0:15:28.600 --> 0:15:31.360 was out four weeks. And I think so, And that's 0:15:31.520 --> 0:15:34.960 that's I think how people it's a fascinating story that 0:15:35.160 --> 0:15:39.160 people still hate on them, hate market wise, whereas Buffalo 0:15:39.320 --> 0:15:42.440 now currently at the moment people love. But they played nobody, 0:15:43.160 --> 0:15:45.000 I think. I think it's the most interesting thing about 0:15:45.000 --> 0:15:48.360 the NFL this year. Why did you say they played nobody? 0:15:48.840 --> 0:15:50.520 Look at their strength in the schedule, it's one of 0:15:50.560 --> 0:15:56.680 the worst. They went to Kansas City. But when it 0:15:56.760 --> 0:16:00.440 collectively because because the Jets are so bad, Yeah, because 0:16:00.440 --> 0:16:05.080 they played the Jets twice, the Dolphins, I'm just doing 0:16:05.120 --> 0:16:10.040 the math. Tampa Bay, they played Tampa Bay, they played Indianapolis, obviously, 0:16:10.840 --> 0:16:14.400 they played Tennessee, they played Kansas City, they played uh, 0:16:14.680 --> 0:16:19.440 the very vaunted Woofties. You say, who they beat, I'm 0:16:19.560 --> 0:16:22.360 joking are not very good. Um, but yeah, they beat 0:16:22.400 --> 0:16:25.480 a couple of good teams. You understand the pole. Yeah, 0:16:25.480 --> 0:16:27.240 I understand. If I just don't think that I would 0:16:27.280 --> 0:16:29.320 say they had they had the worst, the easiest schedule 0:16:29.360 --> 0:16:30.960 in the league. Well, someone, I mean someone on the 0:16:30.960 --> 0:16:33.080 show today said they did have a thirty second straight schedule. 0:16:33.160 --> 0:16:36.000 They do, but I think I think strength the schedule 0:16:36.080 --> 0:16:41.320 is completely overrated and played you How can you factor? 0:16:41.400 --> 0:16:43.920 You have to factor and when you played each team 0:16:44.840 --> 0:16:47.280 and that's who we played quarterback that game, and who 0:16:47.480 --> 0:16:50.160 was playing and what their situation was. And then if 0:16:50.200 --> 0:16:55.000 you try to tell me that a bad team or 0:16:55.080 --> 0:16:58.240 a bad team playing their best game is factored in, 0:16:59.000 --> 0:17:01.920 if you played in that situation, the same as when 0:17:01.960 --> 0:17:04.520 you play a good team playing an off game that 0:17:04.600 --> 0:17:06.440 they didn't show up on. How do you factor and 0:17:06.520 --> 0:17:09.159 quantify that? No, there's no question that it's not a 0:17:09.280 --> 0:17:12.320 clean stat right what I'm saying. I just find that 0:17:12.440 --> 0:17:15.920 because it Mike started with the Buffalo foo gazing mean, listen, 0:17:16.160 --> 0:17:18.560 I made the point before the team that played Jackson Mill, 0:17:18.640 --> 0:17:20.280 the team that played the first game against New England 0:17:20.320 --> 0:17:22.200 doesn't look anything like this team now. Now it looks 0:17:22.240 --> 0:17:24.480 like if they just hey, they commit to Josh Allen 0:17:24.520 --> 0:17:27.840 doing what he is, how he's impossible to defend. Well, 0:17:28.160 --> 0:17:31.200 the Bills if they beat the Chiefs and Tennessee beat 0:17:31.280 --> 0:17:36.920 Cincinnati be a road favorite. NFC Yeah, gets back to 0:17:37.000 --> 0:17:39.920 the way to make it. Can I ask you guys 0:17:39.960 --> 0:17:42.200 a question because this is something I see all the time, 0:17:42.480 --> 0:17:44.560 and you can actually take advantage of this and in game. 0:17:44.600 --> 0:17:45.919 And I want to know if you guys look at 0:17:46.000 --> 0:17:48.680 this UM. A couple of years ago on a numbers game, 0:17:48.720 --> 0:17:51.960 I mentioned that teams would start to get smart about 0:17:52.080 --> 0:17:54.360 not getting a first down and goal at the nine 0:17:54.440 --> 0:17:56.320 or ten yard line. There's all kinds of data to 0:17:56.440 --> 0:17:58.840 show it's much harder to get a touchdown on first 0:17:58.880 --> 0:18:01.240 and goal from the nine or ten that it is 0:18:01.320 --> 0:18:03.639 from first and goal from the three and four. I 0:18:03.760 --> 0:18:06.840 am noticing this more and more because when you have 0:18:06.960 --> 0:18:09.280 a team you need to score and the guy gets 0:18:09.359 --> 0:18:12.320 tackled at the ten yard line, I immediately go, damn, 0:18:12.400 --> 0:18:15.480 we're not gonna get a touchdown, right because because you're 0:18:16.000 --> 0:18:18.200 its first and goal at the ten, you're gonna make 0:18:18.320 --> 0:18:20.840 some stupid play to the sixth and then it's three 0:18:20.880 --> 0:18:22.920 players to get it in from the six. It's a disaster. 0:18:23.200 --> 0:18:26.760 The second second goal running play from the eight skills 0:18:26.920 --> 0:18:29.879 it's so brutal, so so so here's the thing. You 0:18:29.960 --> 0:18:32.119 can actually take advantage of this an in game, because 0:18:32.480 --> 0:18:35.879 I don't think they're sophisticated enough to like, let's say, 0:18:35.960 --> 0:18:37.720 as the team is driving and they give him a 0:18:37.760 --> 0:18:41.520 four point five expected return on this drive when they 0:18:41.560 --> 0:18:43.399 get first and goal to ten versus first and goal 0:18:43.440 --> 0:18:45.840 at the four, I don't think they adjusted properly, so 0:18:46.000 --> 0:18:47.920 you can't take advantage of this in game. I don't 0:18:47.960 --> 0:18:50.639 know what you guys think about this, but I wanted 0:18:50.680 --> 0:18:52.680 to hear what you guys thought about it because I 0:18:52.760 --> 0:18:55.639 am always of the opinion when I don't want them 0:18:55.680 --> 0:18:58.080 to score, please don't be for please don't be first 0:18:58.119 --> 0:19:01.040 and goal from the flour. I agree one. But the 0:19:01.080 --> 0:19:03.200 only the only reason, the only other thing I remember 0:19:03.200 --> 0:19:04.879 about our conversations on the numbers give about it, though, 0:19:04.920 --> 0:19:07.080 is that Todd thought the teams would get hip to 0:19:07.240 --> 0:19:14.400 it and try to like game Like if Justin Jefferson 0:19:14.520 --> 0:19:16.480 has the ball and he's running it like the twenty 0:19:16.520 --> 0:19:20.520 and he sees an opening, that's like at No, I 0:19:20.600 --> 0:19:22.800 know they won't do it, Gilly, because you're probably right, 0:19:22.880 --> 0:19:26.159 they're not smart enough. But if they were really, really, 0:19:26.280 --> 0:19:29.040 really smart. You would think that they would do that 0:19:29.400 --> 0:19:30.800 so that they could get a first down at the 0:19:30.880 --> 0:19:34.119 sixteen to give them a better chance. Is that not crazy? 0:19:34.160 --> 0:19:36.359 I think it's It's much more important than people give 0:19:36.400 --> 0:19:38.960 it credit for it. Todd, I think the rules committee 0:19:38.960 --> 0:19:40.840 should take a look at a rule where if there's 0:19:40.960 --> 0:19:45.040 pass interference in the end zone and a team has 0:19:45.119 --> 0:19:47.600 the ball at the thirty yard line or further out, 0:19:47.760 --> 0:19:50.399 they have the option of first and goal at the 0:19:50.480 --> 0:19:53.480 ten or half the distance. The team would rather have first, 0:19:53.840 --> 0:19:56.119 ten at the fifteen, the first and goal of you 0:19:56.160 --> 0:19:57.359 know what I thought you were gonna say when they 0:19:57.400 --> 0:20:00.119 fumbled the ball out of the end instead of in 0:20:00.160 --> 0:20:03.159 the stupid thing? Are you joking Mikey about that? Or 0:20:03.200 --> 0:20:05.280 do you not see that? This? This? What would you 0:20:05.440 --> 0:20:07.040 rather have? If you were the head coach? Would you 0:20:07.119 --> 0:20:09.120 take first and the first and goal with the fifteen? 0:20:09.200 --> 0:20:14.000 For sure? First and goal with the first and goal 0:20:14.040 --> 0:20:16.120 with I'd much rather have it? What do you guys think? 0:20:17.080 --> 0:20:21.840 I agree with everything you agree? I agree every I 0:20:21.960 --> 0:20:25.560 agree completely. It's what And by the way, never one 0:20:25.840 --> 0:20:29.080 time in any broadcast in the history of Proer College 0:20:29.840 --> 0:20:32.960 has anybody ever made this point. Not once That's why 0:20:33.000 --> 0:20:35.800 I'm not an announcement because exactly why you're not hired. 0:20:35.840 --> 0:20:38.440 There again, they're against fat people and they won't put 0:20:38.480 --> 0:20:41.160 me on even though these great insights but here, but here, 0:20:41.320 --> 0:20:43.600 The real truth is, as soon as my guy gets 0:20:43.640 --> 0:20:45.960 tackled first and goal with the ten, I'm about to cry. 0:20:46.320 --> 0:20:49.800 You know, I know I'm in trouble. It is unbelieved. God, 0:20:49.960 --> 0:20:51.800 I have the exact same thought in my head. I'm like, oh, 0:20:51.880 --> 0:20:54.200 this isn't gonna go. Well, Todd, at what point do 0:20:54.280 --> 0:20:57.480 we start with the picks? Right now? We barely started 0:20:57.520 --> 0:21:00.479 the podcast because Todd, I thought, Mike, you can make fun. 0:21:00.560 --> 0:21:03.040 But I thought this was some insightful discussions. Even what 0:21:03.160 --> 0:21:06.359 you had to say, I thought was because because there 0:21:08.880 --> 0:21:12.000 is never gonna shut up. We have four games, two 0:21:12.080 --> 0:21:15.159 on Saturday to on Sunday. So we've decided collectively, I 0:21:15.240 --> 0:21:18.479 believe we have that we're reducing it to two best bets. Yes, 0:21:18.840 --> 0:21:21.240 because because go to three is nonsense. So two best 0:21:21.280 --> 0:21:26.920 bets uh Las Vegas Chris here first of two. I'm 0:21:27.040 --> 0:21:31.720 I'm completely unprepared here. Okay, sorry, whatever you've got. What 0:21:31.800 --> 0:21:33.600 do we have on Saturday? You know what I like? 0:21:33.680 --> 0:21:35.719 I like just like a pop up podcast on your 0:21:36.040 --> 0:21:38.639 You don't understand what my life's like without my BlackBerry. 0:21:38.680 --> 0:21:42.360 I feel naked for got his BlackBerry today, just explained, 0:21:43.280 --> 0:21:46.080 Are you kidding, Chris? Of course I have a black 0:21:46.080 --> 0:21:47.600 but you want us to go around and get back 0:21:47.600 --> 0:21:49.840 to you. No, no, I'm okay. You know on Saturday. 0:21:49.880 --> 0:21:56.200 On Saturday, I like San Francisco. It Uh, it actually 0:21:56.280 --> 0:21:59.360 looks too easy, it really does. I realized that San 0:21:59.400 --> 0:22:02.520 Francisco have been on the road for a bunch, and um, 0:22:02.640 --> 0:22:04.840 I like the way that they rebounded after they left 0:22:04.880 --> 0:22:06.840 it all on the table to get into the playoffs, 0:22:06.920 --> 0:22:08.560 because if they were gonna have a letdown spot, it 0:22:08.640 --> 0:22:11.840 was gonna be last week. Obviously, we have to worry 0:22:11.880 --> 0:22:14.040 about the three key injuries in the game, but it 0:22:14.119 --> 0:22:16.680 looks like for the most part they're they're headed in 0:22:17.640 --> 0:22:22.159 um metrically. Uh, we all know green Bay sort of 0:22:22.200 --> 0:22:26.879 in the Tennessee category of always overperforming their metrics, and 0:22:27.160 --> 0:22:31.560 it kind of just I've said it before, it green 0:22:31.640 --> 0:22:34.720 Bay plays uh football games like I shoot pool, where 0:22:35.240 --> 0:22:37.560 you know, I goof around until I can make the 0:22:37.640 --> 0:22:40.520 balls or until I have to do something, and then 0:22:40.600 --> 0:22:43.520 I do it. So I look like crap, and I 0:22:43.640 --> 0:22:45.840 performed like crap, and then if I get an opening, 0:22:45.840 --> 0:22:49.240 I take the opening. So uh it seems like that's 0:22:49.280 --> 0:22:53.840 how green Bay plays, and uh San Francisco rates higher 0:22:54.119 --> 0:22:57.960 than green Bay on my metrics, and giving them six 0:22:58.080 --> 0:23:00.200 points in a game like this, I mean with the 0:23:00.280 --> 0:23:04.359 coaching they have with Samuel and uh KIDDI they have 0:23:04.440 --> 0:23:07.159 me have been using Kiddle lately. You know, he's been 0:23:07.200 --> 0:23:13.320 a nothing burger. I just think, are you worried about Jimmy? Yeah, 0:23:13.320 --> 0:23:15.359 of course I am. But you know, it's not like 0:23:15.440 --> 0:23:19.480 you're you're you're you know obviously, Uh, you know, Fields 0:23:19.680 --> 0:23:22.920 has to go in there. At least he's had some success, 0:23:23.000 --> 0:23:26.639 He's got some time in there, and uh he's not 0:23:26.760 --> 0:23:30.160 going to be completely virgin to the situation. But uh, 0:23:31.200 --> 0:23:35.600 the I just think six points is just, you know, 0:23:35.840 --> 0:23:38.640 ridiculous in this matchup, especially with how many times green 0:23:38.720 --> 0:23:42.960 Bay just lets people hang around, hang around, uh you 0:23:43.040 --> 0:23:44.960 know a lot. They had a lot of close calls 0:23:45.080 --> 0:23:47.919 this season, and uh, I just don't think that they 0:23:49.480 --> 0:23:51.680 I think San Francisco is good enough to stay with 0:23:51.760 --> 0:23:53.960 them there. They should be running the ball down their 0:23:54.040 --> 0:23:57.840 throat the entire game, and uh, I know San Francisco 0:23:57.920 --> 0:24:02.800 secondary is vulnerable, but I just see that that six 0:24:02.880 --> 0:24:04.320 points is going to make the difference, and it's not 0:24:04.359 --> 0:24:07.800 gonna surprise me to see San Francisco win. But you know, 0:24:07.960 --> 0:24:10.720 primarily this is based on my metrics, which you know, 0:24:10.800 --> 0:24:13.440 I used fifty five different inputs on it. So I'm 0:24:13.440 --> 0:24:16.399 not gonna pull out, you know, a handful of of 0:24:16.520 --> 0:24:18.639 stats at any time and say well they're number one 0:24:18.680 --> 0:24:21.320 in this, number two in this, because you know, I 0:24:21.480 --> 0:24:23.840 like to merge them all together and I think it's 0:24:23.880 --> 0:24:27.159 a culmination of a lot of things. So that's my 0:24:27.240 --> 0:24:30.080 feelings on that game. So San Francisco plus the six 0:24:31.680 --> 0:24:34.919 six Todd yes, six, And we're still waiting to hear. 0:24:34.960 --> 0:24:39.000 As Chris said on Bosa on Warner, Jimmy GE's got 0:24:39.080 --> 0:24:42.399 the injuries, Mikey, what's your first? Can I give my second? 0:24:43.119 --> 0:24:45.880 Because it's the same as Chris is the forty niners. 0:24:46.840 --> 0:24:50.800 Um we've got on our show, odds on sort of 0:24:50.840 --> 0:24:53.960 revolutionized Visa and that we do a segment where I'm 0:24:53.960 --> 0:25:03.800 all guests is the lines and and for well some 0:25:03.960 --> 0:25:08.840 might copy it now, but for division a weekend, I'm 0:25:08.880 --> 0:25:11.800 all guest three and a half for this game as 0:25:11.880 --> 0:25:14.000 the number, and I didn't think he was that far off. 0:25:14.080 --> 0:25:15.800 I knew it already though, you know, I know what 0:25:16.240 --> 0:25:18.639 did I. By the way, so Felka, Felika and I 0:25:18.760 --> 0:25:21.680 had this thing while the Niners were beating the Cowboys. 0:25:22.240 --> 0:25:25.320 Felika said three. I said no, it's three and a 0:25:25.359 --> 0:25:27.720 half or four? He said four and a half. And 0:25:27.760 --> 0:25:29.480 then when the injuries started coming, were like, oh, we 0:25:29.560 --> 0:25:31.720 gotta throw this out the window, but yes, to give 0:25:31.720 --> 0:25:36.879 it a difference. In um in her self titled debut 0:25:37.480 --> 0:25:41.600 solo album, The Miseducation of Lauren Hill, the first track 0:25:41.760 --> 0:25:46.000 released was Everything Is Everything, which really described the Cowboys 0:25:46.040 --> 0:25:50.040 and forty Niners game in in Dallas on Sunday. Everything 0:25:50.119 --> 0:25:54.440 you expected happened. Forty Niners had a creative, effective running game, 0:25:55.160 --> 0:25:58.760 Dak performed small on a big stage, Jimmy g turned 0:25:58.800 --> 0:26:01.159 the ball over at a critical time, and Mark McCarthy's 0:26:01.200 --> 0:26:03.359 game management reared its ugly had everything you would have 0:26:03.400 --> 0:26:06.560 predicted happened him. The forty Niners absolutely dominated the game. 0:26:06.720 --> 0:26:09.280 If he hits I you they win by three touchdowns? Right, 0:26:09.320 --> 0:26:12.200 And I think that he doesn't throw that pick. That 0:26:12.320 --> 0:26:17.080 sort of shook his confidence. Um, But I look at 0:26:17.119 --> 0:26:19.320 it this way. Here's how I analyze this game. On 0:26:19.520 --> 0:26:23.000 that day where we celebrate the Carpenter's son's birth, Cleveland 0:26:23.080 --> 0:26:27.680 went into green Bay and despite for Baker mayfield interception 0:26:27.880 --> 0:26:30.680 with the Jewish bird, Jewish had a chance. Well, minor 0:26:30.720 --> 0:26:33.360 Prophet had a chance to win that game. Now tell 0:26:33.480 --> 0:26:35.760 me this, Tom, and I'll ask you. Would you rather 0:26:35.840 --> 0:26:40.639 have Baker Mayfield or Jimmy G. Would you rather have 0:26:41.760 --> 0:26:44.480 the Cleveland running game or the forty Niner running game? Push? 0:26:45.160 --> 0:26:47.520 Would you rather have the Cleveland defense or the forty 0:26:47.560 --> 0:26:51.520 Niners defense. I don't think you can argue. You could 0:26:51.600 --> 0:26:54.040 argue the first two are Push, maybe Jimmy G and Baker, 0:26:54.840 --> 0:26:57.720 But look, I think they're much better team and Cleveland, 0:26:57.800 --> 0:26:59.960 by all right, should have won that game. Green Bay's 0:27:00.040 --> 0:27:02.720 been unimpressive down the stretch. I think it's way too 0:27:02.760 --> 0:27:06.440 many points. I'll take the six, He'll take the six, 0:27:06.680 --> 0:27:08.600 and it's sliding down to five and a half. We 0:27:08.720 --> 0:27:10.440 just went to five minutes. Can I jump in and 0:27:10.520 --> 0:27:13.280 give my number two? I'm on the San Francisco forty 0:27:13.720 --> 0:27:18.000 plus six. I this this defies when we have three 0:27:18.119 --> 0:27:20.960 people goring on the same game. It gets ugly here. 0:27:21.480 --> 0:27:24.600 But for all the reasons stated, and yes I know 0:27:24.720 --> 0:27:29.040 about the injuries, and if that turned here towards the 0:27:29.160 --> 0:27:31.240 end of the week, then obviously that would be an issue. 0:27:31.560 --> 0:27:33.399 But just based on what we're just talking about, the 0:27:33.480 --> 0:27:38.000 guesses of the line during that game, this is this 0:27:38.200 --> 0:27:40.680 is too much. It's just too many points for a 0:27:40.760 --> 0:27:42.560 Packer's team. That by the way, you brought up the 0:27:42.600 --> 0:27:46.400 Cleveland Browns that last game of the regular season where 0:27:46.440 --> 0:27:48.879 Baker Mayfield through the the pick to Resul Douglas. It 0:27:48.960 --> 0:27:50.640 was his fourth pick of the game and Green Bay 0:27:50.680 --> 0:27:53.840 held on to beat Cleveland. The image of Aaron Rodgers 0:27:54.000 --> 0:27:57.639 standing on that sideline watching helplessly to see how that 0:27:57.760 --> 0:28:00.280 game played out, and you thought to yourself at the time, 0:28:00.560 --> 0:28:02.880 who are the teams in this league built to beat 0:28:02.920 --> 0:28:05.800 the Packers specifically also at Lambeau. They're all in the 0:28:05.880 --> 0:28:09.360 a f C except for one right Indianapolis, Cleveland, Tennessee, 0:28:10.040 --> 0:28:12.119 big running games. The only team in the NFC was 0:28:12.160 --> 0:28:14.639 the Niners. Another reason why the Niners coming back in 0:28:14.720 --> 0:28:19.400 Week eighteen to beat the Rams was everything for these postseasons. 0:28:19.440 --> 0:28:21.639 So San Francisco for this postseason, San Francisco is my 0:28:21.760 --> 0:28:27.600 number two DoD Okay, I'm gonna go with um the 0:28:27.800 --> 0:28:31.960 under in that game, under forty seven in that game 0:28:32.320 --> 0:28:35.760 as my second pick. I'll just start with that game. Also, 0:28:35.880 --> 0:28:38.360 like you guys did, I like under forty seven in 0:28:38.480 --> 0:28:41.360 Green Bay and San Francisco. Green Bay plays from what 0:28:41.520 --> 0:28:44.520 I'm told, the slowest pace in the NFL, meaning, you know, 0:28:44.560 --> 0:28:46.840 they take the longest time before they snapped the ball. 0:28:47.760 --> 0:28:50.720 I think the Niners also are gonna want to protect 0:28:50.800 --> 0:28:53.280 Jimmy with all his injuries and try to slow the 0:28:53.320 --> 0:28:55.600 game down. Also, I was really impressed. Look, I like 0:28:55.720 --> 0:28:57.760 the Niners defense all year, but I really like what 0:28:57.880 --> 0:29:00.240 they did going into Dallas. I think they'll be able 0:29:00.280 --> 0:29:04.840 to slow Aaron Rodgers down a little bit. And you know, 0:29:05.000 --> 0:29:07.440 forty seven still a decent amount of points in an 0:29:07.520 --> 0:29:11.360 NFL game. I'll take under forty seven, you know, and 0:29:11.440 --> 0:29:15.800 you're in uh final and uh and you get the W. 0:29:16.000 --> 0:29:17.240 I just think that there's gonna be a lot of 0:29:17.320 --> 0:29:20.840 running in this game and and a slow paced game. Again, 0:29:20.920 --> 0:29:22.800 I don't think they're gonna let Jimmy just throw it 0:29:22.840 --> 0:29:25.400 all over the field, knowing that he can blow up 0:29:25.440 --> 0:29:29.840 in in in you know, at any moment Chris number 0:29:29.920 --> 0:29:32.120 two for you, sir, What do I have to go again? 0:29:32.280 --> 0:29:34.800 You don't want to go again? No, I'm debating Mikey 0:29:34.840 --> 0:29:36.320 and I want to see if we match on one 0:29:36.400 --> 0:29:37.720 end to you want me to go first? Do you 0:29:37.760 --> 0:29:39.480 want to go first or number one? Well, you have 0:29:39.640 --> 0:29:41.880 the lead, so I haven't written down already, so I'm 0:29:41.880 --> 0:29:45.600 not changing anything. I got the Tennessee tight. Yeah, there 0:29:45.640 --> 0:29:48.960 we go. That's my guy. I think this might be 0:29:49.040 --> 0:29:51.920 as big a mismatch and this round is. I thought 0:29:52.000 --> 0:29:55.880 Tampa and Philly was in the first round. It's wow, 0:29:56.320 --> 0:30:00.560 that's I honestly think. You know, we we've We've come 0:30:00.640 --> 0:30:03.560 to say also that the whole field advantage doesn't mean 0:30:03.600 --> 0:30:05.320 as much in the NFL as it used to. We 0:30:05.440 --> 0:30:07.520 quantified it at three points back in the day. Now 0:30:07.640 --> 0:30:11.080 it's less. I actually think we sort of get away 0:30:11.160 --> 0:30:13.160 from that in the playoffs a little bit. I think 0:30:13.200 --> 0:30:15.840 home field still matters in the playoffs. And I think 0:30:15.960 --> 0:30:19.200 the return of Derrick Henry, despite the fact that I 0:30:19.240 --> 0:30:20.960 had ed fang on the power rank on the numbers 0:30:21.040 --> 0:30:22.880 get me yesterday and he talked about how did you 0:30:22.960 --> 0:30:27.480 hear that? He talked about how Dante Foreman's average per 0:30:27.560 --> 0:30:32.040 carry and his yards after contact are relatively sane. And 0:30:32.360 --> 0:30:34.920 I just I just pushed back on something like that. 0:30:34.960 --> 0:30:36.959 And I had Jeff Schwartz on this morning, and as 0:30:37.040 --> 0:30:39.400 a former offensive lineman, he just talked about it goes, yeah, 0:30:39.400 --> 0:30:41.680 we blocked the same, but knowing that you have this 0:30:41.800 --> 0:30:44.720 guy that can just break one at any given moment, 0:30:45.040 --> 0:30:47.880 there's just a different mindset to it all. I think 0:30:47.960 --> 0:30:51.280 the Titans, again dumptailing back to the earlier comments, I 0:30:51.360 --> 0:30:54.560 think they are the most criminally underrated thing going. I 0:30:54.640 --> 0:30:56.560 think the Bengals. I love the Bengals. Look who doesn't 0:30:56.560 --> 0:30:59.000 love Joe Burrow, But I do think they're a year away. 0:30:59.120 --> 0:31:02.800 And while watching that Raiders Bengals game last week, I 0:31:02.920 --> 0:31:05.520 started to think to myself, I don't know if I 0:31:05.520 --> 0:31:08.120 would mind the Titans playing the SAP Titans futures. I 0:31:08.160 --> 0:31:09.880 don't know if I would mind the Titans playing this 0:31:10.000 --> 0:31:13.400 Bengals team. I think the Titans defense is going to 0:31:13.640 --> 0:31:16.480 really rise up. I think Derrick Henry is going to 0:31:16.640 --> 0:31:19.600 gain a ridiculous amount of yards in this game, and 0:31:19.640 --> 0:31:22.560 I think the Titans are going to quietly dominate. I 0:31:22.600 --> 0:31:24.480 think it's gonna be the most home home game of 0:31:24.520 --> 0:31:27.080 the weekend, and I think the Titans win going away. 0:31:27.800 --> 0:31:29.760 And by the way, Gilly, did you know that in 0:31:29.880 --> 0:31:33.880 the last eight games, Cincinnati has only played one legitimate 0:31:34.000 --> 0:31:36.880 road game. All the other six games were at home. 0:31:37.480 --> 0:31:39.480 One game was at Cleveland when they didn't try to 0:31:39.640 --> 0:31:42.120 throw that one in the garbage. The only game that 0:31:42.240 --> 0:31:44.680 was on the road, and that entire series of the 0:31:44.800 --> 0:31:48.120 last eight games was at Denver where they squeaked it 0:31:48.160 --> 0:31:51.400 out because of the last second first half field goal 0:31:51.600 --> 0:31:54.120 when Fangio messed it up and they end up winning 0:31:54.160 --> 0:31:58.640 fifteen to ten. So all this pro Bengals thought process 0:31:59.120 --> 0:32:02.600 is based on a on a home games, Gil, when 0:32:02.680 --> 0:32:06.000 you were away, Um, I asked the question of Todd 0:32:06.080 --> 0:32:08.600 and Frank Schwab because I think this this game features 0:32:09.000 --> 0:32:11.880 the only two viable Coach of the Year candidates who 0:32:11.960 --> 0:32:13.920 you would vote for if you had a vote. To me, 0:32:14.040 --> 0:32:16.000 it's not really close. I don't think it's close. I 0:32:16.040 --> 0:32:22.800 think I've always said who he overcame all those injuries, 0:32:22.840 --> 0:32:24.840 got the number one seed, and I get it that 0:32:24.960 --> 0:32:28.720 the Bengals from preseason numbers overperformed more than anybody. I 0:32:28.760 --> 0:32:31.040 said to French Swab, what about the argument the Bengals 0:32:31.080 --> 0:32:33.160 were one that win their division. He said, so they 0:32:33.200 --> 0:32:34.680 were miss priced. What does that have to do with 0:32:34.720 --> 0:32:38.680 the coach of the year? Well, and Vrabel's mother's Japanese. 0:32:39.560 --> 0:32:41.960 Abel's married to a girl that was a year behind 0:32:42.080 --> 0:32:44.000 me in high school. She was it's one of the 0:32:44.040 --> 0:32:46.520 best volleyball players in the country that she would you 0:32:46.560 --> 0:32:48.520 got a scholarship to Ohio State and that's where they 0:32:48.600 --> 0:32:54.400 met Jen Bolen. But they have a terrific family, not 0:32:54.560 --> 0:33:00.240 a blend. Sorry you ready, you ready, Chris will let 0:33:00.280 --> 0:33:04.720 you know what the other three games, Todd, we're only 0:33:04.800 --> 0:33:11.800 doing to Okay, I'll pick a different game, you know what. 0:33:11.880 --> 0:33:13.920 I'll go with the Rams here. Okay, that would have 0:33:13.920 --> 0:33:17.880 been my number three. I don't like the way Tampa 0:33:17.920 --> 0:33:21.520 Bay is basically backed in you know, my metrics. U. 0:33:21.680 --> 0:33:24.680 They Tampa Bay played a pretty easy schedule for the 0:33:25.040 --> 0:33:28.000 last quarter of the season, and they still rank near 0:33:28.040 --> 0:33:32.880 the bottom. I have them thirty uh over those over 0:33:32.960 --> 0:33:39.520 that time period on my metrics and uh you know. Meanwhile, 0:33:39.600 --> 0:33:43.080 you've got the Rams, which they haven't been uh uh 0:33:43.360 --> 0:33:46.880 top ten during that time period, but they have shown 0:33:46.920 --> 0:33:49.960 some improvement. I worry about their inconsistencies and stuff. But 0:33:50.560 --> 0:33:53.440 you know, when you look at Tampa Bay from last year, 0:33:54.360 --> 0:33:58.040 they weren't expected to run the table. They got so lucky. 0:33:58.240 --> 0:34:00.840 They benefited from a lot of luck. I believe they 0:34:00.880 --> 0:34:04.440 were plus eleven or twelve fumbled by Cooke across the middle, 0:34:04.480 --> 0:34:06.440 and they don't win that game, they're out, and the 0:34:06.520 --> 0:34:10.080 Jedi mind trick on Matt Lafleur. They were pay that 0:34:10.360 --> 0:34:12.800 they were like plus ten or eleven or twelve in 0:34:12.880 --> 0:34:15.560 the turnover ratio and just in the playoffs, just in 0:34:15.600 --> 0:34:18.520 that short little stretch they got very, very lucky. And 0:34:18.600 --> 0:34:21.200 then everybody, you know, it's Brady. This Brady. They had 0:34:21.200 --> 0:34:24.120 all their miracle workers. That team is not the same team. 0:34:24.160 --> 0:34:27.200 They're missing a lot of players, and they're dinged up. 0:34:27.600 --> 0:34:30.759 They're not in any decent form. Remember last year they 0:34:30.800 --> 0:34:33.600 went into with perfect form last year. So I have 0:34:33.680 --> 0:34:36.600 a future in them to win the the NFC. So 0:34:36.760 --> 0:34:39.759 and I don't think it's gonna win, but and and 0:34:40.120 --> 0:34:42.360 and I think we get a little extra value just 0:34:42.600 --> 0:34:47.319 with the Brady cover. Si Aura, Uh, you know how 0:34:47.400 --> 0:34:49.000 many times are we gonna hear it this week? You 0:34:49.040 --> 0:34:51.600 can't bet against Brady? How can you bet against Brady? Well, 0:34:51.960 --> 0:34:54.439 because I'm getting an extra couple of points because that's 0:34:54.600 --> 0:34:58.600 your people, like you keep saying that. So now I 0:34:58.719 --> 0:35:01.160 worry about Stafford where they he you know, he's always 0:35:01.239 --> 0:35:04.120 hiding injuries and he had a good game last game. 0:35:04.480 --> 0:35:08.319 But they're balanced, you know, they're running the ball more. Uh, 0:35:08.760 --> 0:35:10.960 they're not relying on the past as much, and they're 0:35:11.040 --> 0:35:13.919 just very balanced. And I think it's a perfect spot 0:35:14.000 --> 0:35:16.879 for them to be able to uh uh to win. 0:35:17.040 --> 0:35:18.840 And I believe if I'm not a mistake. And I 0:35:18.880 --> 0:35:21.880 don't have my data, but uh, you know they covered 0:35:22.000 --> 0:35:25.560 last year in Tampa Bay. They beat him up. Uh 0:35:25.920 --> 0:35:27.799 didn't they beat him up already? This see week three? 0:35:27.800 --> 0:35:32.080 They beat him in l A. So you know they 0:35:32.160 --> 0:35:36.399 match up okay, And um, you're not gonna have any 0:35:36.440 --> 0:35:39.080 weather factors. You're not gonna have any major rest factors. 0:35:40.080 --> 0:35:43.880 I just think the Rams actually have the tools to 0:35:44.200 --> 0:35:48.520 give the Lions a lower draft picks and beat Tampa Bay. 0:35:48.719 --> 0:35:50.840 You think And I'll ask Gildas as well, since he 0:35:50.920 --> 0:35:54.160 says the Rams are his third pick. Do you think 0:35:54.200 --> 0:35:59.000 they can run the ball though against Tampa No, so 0:35:59.280 --> 0:36:02.320 to be this was a referendum on Stafford because I 0:36:02.400 --> 0:36:04.440 heard you on the way, he said, it's a referendum 0:36:04.520 --> 0:36:08.320 on Stafford. Yeah, it probably is. Probably is a referendom Stafford. 0:36:08.360 --> 0:36:09.920 By the way, Jeff Schwartz is on this morning, he's 0:36:10.000 --> 0:36:12.680 entired dalysis. He goes, don't bet against Brady. That was 0:36:12.719 --> 0:36:15.319 his entire of this game. A lot of people also 0:36:15.320 --> 0:36:18.000 said the Steeler's offensive line was okay. He also said 0:36:18.000 --> 0:36:20.160 he's He's also said he's tired of listening to you 0:36:20.200 --> 0:36:21.560 when he wants to go home. When he was on 0:36:21.600 --> 0:36:23.440 the spot, that's fine. He can he can get he 0:36:23.520 --> 0:36:27.960 can get annoyed for no reason. That's fine, by the way. 0:36:28.000 --> 0:36:30.240 So let's wrap up your second pick. We'll get Adam 0:36:30.280 --> 0:36:32.279 in here for for the the answers to all of 0:36:32.320 --> 0:36:35.560 these questions. Todd, what's your number two? It actually number one, 0:36:36.160 --> 0:36:39.160 number one, Rams was gonna be my number. That was 0:36:39.200 --> 0:36:41.399 gonna be my number three pick. I'm not gonna take. 0:36:41.440 --> 0:36:44.040 I couldn't agree more with what Chris said that I 0:36:44.160 --> 0:36:47.680 think there's something wrong with this Buccaneers team. The only 0:36:47.760 --> 0:36:49.799 thing I'd be afraid of his Stafford. And that's the question. 0:36:49.840 --> 0:36:51.440 But my number one pick is going to be the 0:36:51.640 --> 0:36:57.640 under in the Bengals Titans game. Under forty seven and 0:36:57.680 --> 0:37:00.600 a half. Is that way you have gil on forty 0:37:00.760 --> 0:37:02.920 seven and a half, I believe yes. Let me check 0:37:04.320 --> 0:37:07.000 under forty seven and a half in the Titans Bengals game. 0:37:07.680 --> 0:37:09.880 As I was mentioning, the Bengals have done all this 0:37:10.120 --> 0:37:13.880 positive stuff six six out of the seven games when 0:37:13.920 --> 0:37:17.200 they tried, we're all at home. The one game, as 0:37:17.239 --> 0:37:19.600 I said before, that they weren't at home was at 0:37:20.040 --> 0:37:22.759 Denver and they barely were life and death to win 0:37:22.880 --> 0:37:26.000 that game. Uh. I just didn't like the fact that 0:37:26.080 --> 0:37:28.279 they were settling for all those field goals. I think 0:37:28.360 --> 0:37:30.040 Tennessee will be able to hold them to a lot 0:37:30.080 --> 0:37:32.360 of field goals as well. Of course, it's gonna be 0:37:32.480 --> 0:37:35.400 Derrick Henry to the left, Derrick Henry to the right, 0:37:35.480 --> 0:37:37.880 Derrick Henry to the middle, so that will give us 0:37:37.880 --> 0:37:40.800 a lot of running. So I'm gonna go under forty 0:37:40.880 --> 0:37:43.640 seven and a half in the Titans Bengals in my 0:37:43.880 --> 0:37:46.239 number one thing, All right, let's bring Adam churn Off 0:37:46.360 --> 0:37:50.480 in everybody, Adam back on the show from Canada. Where 0:37:50.520 --> 0:37:54.520 in Canada are you? And Alberta? Yeah, west of Calgary 0:37:54.680 --> 0:37:59.440 in the uh the cold of mid January winter? How 0:37:59.520 --> 0:38:05.799 cold is it. What's the temperature? Uh? Minus eighteen celsius? 0:38:06.760 --> 0:38:09.840 Oh yeah, which is actually nice. So what is that 0:38:09.960 --> 0:38:14.440 in fahrenheight? Close to the same? I think, what is that? 0:38:14.719 --> 0:38:17.360 I think it is about the same. What is that 0:38:17.440 --> 0:38:19.480 in Kelvin, Adam? What is that in Kelvin? What you 0:38:19.560 --> 0:38:21.719 got there? Minus a teen is got me on that? 0:38:21.840 --> 0:38:25.319 One good version. Let's do a conversion of minus eighteen. Yeah. 0:38:25.360 --> 0:38:28.239 My girlfriend lives in Toronto, she's Canadian. She I tell 0:38:28.280 --> 0:38:29.880 her what the temperature is and she goes. I have 0:38:30.000 --> 0:38:32.919 no idea what that means. Did she go back? It's 0:38:33.600 --> 0:38:37.440 not pleasant no matter what scale you use, it's just cold. 0:38:38.640 --> 0:38:42.880 Adam is the senior strategist for Covers fourteen years in 0:38:43.040 --> 0:38:47.640 NFL bookmaking, which, by the way, is a fascinating background 0:38:47.680 --> 0:38:49.520 which we've never really gotten into on the show, which 0:38:49.560 --> 0:38:51.960 we should one day. Um I saw that on Twitter? 0:38:51.960 --> 0:38:54.560 Are you talking about when he went to the Costa Rica? Like? 0:38:54.600 --> 0:38:58.719 I didn't know any of these stories about you, Adam. Fascinating. Yeah, 0:38:59.120 --> 0:39:02.359 it was. It was a weird eight to ten years 0:39:02.440 --> 0:39:05.320 bouncing around the Caribbean, but we ended up in a 0:39:05.360 --> 0:39:09.120 good spot. And you guys, you Las Vegas, Chris and Adam, 0:39:09.160 --> 0:39:12.520 you too do a podcast together four Covers, which is 0:39:12.600 --> 0:39:20.120 called it Covers on Test Weekly. But we I'm here 0:39:20.160 --> 0:39:22.239 for you guys because I got a text from Chris 0:39:22.440 --> 0:39:25.960 yesterday it was you are a hack and that was it. 0:39:26.560 --> 0:39:28.960 That was the extent of the text. So I'm here 0:39:29.040 --> 0:39:34.040 for you three. Thank you. I have some discussions to 0:39:34.080 --> 0:39:37.560 have about a game here that you said Westgate was 0:39:37.600 --> 0:39:41.279 the first to go to four on on Cincinnati on 0:39:41.400 --> 0:39:48.920 two different shows, and the first is this is this 0:39:49.040 --> 0:39:51.120 what your guys podcast is like? It is it is 0:39:51.360 --> 0:39:54.920 you go after each other and Adam of course does 0:39:54.960 --> 0:39:57.360 the simple handicap as well, which is his bread and 0:39:57.440 --> 0:39:59.880 butter year round. You're doing golf again this year, Adam. 0:40:01.440 --> 0:40:04.080 I've I've given up on trying to beat golf. Really. 0:40:04.400 --> 0:40:06.480 I know who wins is at it, I know how 0:40:06.600 --> 0:40:08.239 they win at it, and I just I don't have 0:40:08.360 --> 0:40:12.120 the energy to try and compete anymore. Could you? Could 0:40:12.160 --> 0:40:18.520 you expand all that that's fascinating, not the who, the how? Well, Okay, 0:40:18.600 --> 0:40:21.400 so there's one source of information that's like a well 0:40:21.520 --> 0:40:26.280 respected model that's publicly posted Sunday night, and for years 0:40:27.400 --> 0:40:30.200 it's been like that, but now it's become very popular, 0:40:30.880 --> 0:40:33.279 and books have caught onto it too, because there's now 0:40:33.360 --> 0:40:35.560 an agreement between the site and the book where there's 0:40:35.840 --> 0:40:39.600 lines that are displayed on site, and so it's now 0:40:39.840 --> 0:40:42.600 it's like an eight eight to ten minute race Sunday 0:40:42.680 --> 0:40:46.200 night to beat any lines that move relative to that model. 0:40:46.960 --> 0:40:51.080 And then on Tuesday evening there is a sports book 0:40:51.120 --> 0:40:54.440 that for years of has posted golf matchups um, but 0:40:54.560 --> 0:40:56.560 now they're doing it and that's become kind of widely 0:40:56.640 --> 0:40:58.920 known as well, and so it's just a race to 0:40:59.000 --> 0:41:01.800 beat that. So for me, I'm looking at golf this 0:41:01.960 --> 0:41:05.280 year as you're either in that race trying to compete 0:41:05.400 --> 0:41:09.040 to get your numbers before anyone else gets them, or 0:41:09.120 --> 0:41:12.120 those those models moved the prices, or you're trying to 0:41:12.160 --> 0:41:15.120 figure out where that model and that sports book are 0:41:15.239 --> 0:41:19.160 wrong and going against it the other way. But I 0:41:19.239 --> 0:41:21.200 don't have a way to do that either, and so 0:41:21.920 --> 0:41:24.799 last year I was just betting into numbers that we're 0:41:24.880 --> 0:41:29.160 just getting destroyed and it just very hard to compete. 0:41:29.280 --> 0:41:33.520 So now with other're gonna step back calling the hotel 0:41:33.640 --> 0:41:36.320 room at three o'clock in the morning to go against 0:41:36.360 --> 0:41:38.719 the golfer that you're going against. You know, like wake 0:41:38.760 --> 0:41:42.040 come up in the middle of something with that work. Well, 0:41:42.080 --> 0:41:44.600 i'll tell you what. There's there's a story when there 0:41:44.719 --> 0:41:46.880 was when we were dealing with the COVID stuff and 0:41:46.920 --> 0:41:49.480 the tour shut down, but we had the outlaw too, 0:41:49.520 --> 0:41:53.760 were going. It was very easy to call the courses 0:41:53.800 --> 0:41:56.319 in Arizona that they were playing at and like they 0:41:56.360 --> 0:41:59.480 were just willing to talk for and fifteen minutes. So 0:41:59.600 --> 0:42:01.320 there was a lot of really good stuff that was 0:42:01.400 --> 0:42:04.640 coming directly from the courses, unlike who was there, who 0:42:04.760 --> 0:42:13.120 was practicing shops with nothing to do all there. It's awesome. Well, 0:42:13.160 --> 0:42:16.160 that was very that was fascinating. I'm fascinated by that. 0:42:16.320 --> 0:42:19.040 I'd actually like the bendire about that elsewhere that that's 0:42:19.760 --> 0:42:22.759 that's what I like about that though, also, Adam is 0:42:23.040 --> 0:42:26.840 what's not being spoken here is just a recognition that 0:42:27.080 --> 0:42:31.160 sometimes it ain't worth it, right, and that sometimes you 0:42:31.239 --> 0:42:33.160 know when you're beat kind of thing, not when you're beat, 0:42:33.200 --> 0:42:34.560 but you know that it's not worth it to you 0:42:34.920 --> 0:42:38.520 to expend the resources on trying to beat something that's 0:42:38.520 --> 0:42:42.480 sort of gamed, if you will second, the exact same 0:42:42.560 --> 0:42:46.320 thing happened to me six seven years ago within play 0:42:46.800 --> 0:42:50.600 women's tennis. That was I was huge into it and 0:42:50.680 --> 0:42:54.479 then it just one season you could tell that like, Okay, 0:42:54.560 --> 0:42:56.600 this is going away, and it was just when you know, 0:42:56.760 --> 0:42:59.600 you know you can't do it anymore. Yeah, who appears 0:42:59.680 --> 0:43:06.239 on our podcasts weekly? Adam or Drew. I'm gonna say 0:43:06.360 --> 0:43:13.960 Drew Drew. Drew's everywhere. Drew is everywhere. That's not that's 0:43:14.000 --> 0:43:15.880 not a knock on Adam. No, no, no, I just 0:43:15.960 --> 0:43:19.480 but they're both prolific, prolific. Well, Adam has the his 0:43:19.680 --> 0:43:25.400 the indoor record for Alberta, I believe, not the outdoor outdoor. 0:43:25.520 --> 0:43:27.880 Where's Adam's going? He's not going outside to do stuff. 0:43:27.880 --> 0:43:33.439 Apparently that's why we're gil The conversion is negative half 0:43:33.520 --> 0:43:41.000 degree fahrenheit. Oh my goodness, thanks zero. To think about 0:43:41.080 --> 0:43:45.280 Drew before we continue bashing the cold. In like twenty 0:43:46.239 --> 0:43:50.480 fifteen sixteen, there was a huge group chat of like 0:43:50.640 --> 0:43:53.520 a lot of people that are now like on shows 0:43:53.560 --> 0:43:56.080 that they've got their own like network deals or anything, 0:43:56.120 --> 0:43:58.799 that have sort of progressed, and like he was in there, 0:43:58.920 --> 0:44:00.520 I was in there. There were other are people that 0:44:01.080 --> 0:44:03.640 we've all seen on shows too, and it's weird, like 0:44:03.800 --> 0:44:06.719 everybody kind of knew each other before there was really 0:44:06.800 --> 0:44:09.960 like a content space around betting, and everyone's just kind 0:44:09.960 --> 0:44:12.759 of like progressed in their own direction and so like 0:44:12.880 --> 0:44:15.000 it's it's amazing to see what he does and how 0:44:15.080 --> 0:44:17.600 much success he's had. But it's fun to remember, like 0:44:17.880 --> 0:44:20.280 we all kind of started together in like the spot, 0:44:20.400 --> 0:44:22.759 but with Gil, you your show has been around for 0:44:23.640 --> 0:44:26.359 more eleven twelve years, like very much. You've been one 0:44:26.400 --> 0:44:28.160 of the pioneers and that so it's like fun and 0:44:28.200 --> 0:44:30.959 everything's kind of coming together now. It's it's so great 0:44:31.040 --> 0:44:33.120 to think about how it's how it's all evolved. Was 0:44:33.239 --> 0:44:35.759 your chat was that tennis heavy back in the day. 0:44:35.840 --> 0:44:37.759 I think Drew told me it was wasn't it was 0:44:37.800 --> 0:44:39.520 that a different thing, a lot of tennis, a lot 0:44:39.600 --> 0:44:42.360 of football, and just like a lot of different like 0:44:42.520 --> 0:44:45.520 betting insights that were coming. It was a lot sort 0:44:45.560 --> 0:44:48.319 of fueled offshore obviously at the time. But um now 0:44:48.400 --> 0:44:51.040 with like it's kind of evolved and everyone went their 0:44:51.040 --> 0:44:54.080 other direction once things became regulated. But it was I 0:44:54.640 --> 0:44:56.480 want to compliment you and Drew bo since we were 0:44:56.520 --> 0:44:58.239 since we're talking about both of you and Tandem before 0:44:58.280 --> 0:44:59.480 we get to your picks here, because you want to 0:44:59.520 --> 0:45:01.920 hear your top two picks. But the thing that I 0:45:02.000 --> 0:45:04.120 think makes both of you so great, if I may, 0:45:04.400 --> 0:45:08.160 is that here's the thing with most sports betters. They're 0:45:08.200 --> 0:45:12.439 either really bad, that's first one thing right, or they're 0:45:13.080 --> 0:45:17.279 so you know, I don't know what the word is, 0:45:17.400 --> 0:45:20.320 but they're so wrapped up in their sports betting world 0:45:20.800 --> 0:45:24.759 that they're incapable of communicating what they do. They're just 0:45:25.000 --> 0:45:27.239 very sort of not asperger Z, but just there are 0:45:27.239 --> 0:45:29.440 a certain type of person that is not Their strength 0:45:29.560 --> 0:45:33.600 is not communication. You and Drew are sharp bettors who 0:45:33.800 --> 0:45:37.359 really can communicate on a level that doesn't speak down 0:45:37.480 --> 0:45:40.919 to people, that doesn't sound like you're two above brow 0:45:40.960 --> 0:45:43.279 and I just the highest compliment I can give is 0:45:43.400 --> 0:45:45.840 that that you're able to do that. So kudos to 0:45:45.920 --> 0:45:49.040 you on that. Man, No, he doesn't. He does it 0:45:49.120 --> 0:45:52.200 as well as anybody. So I completely agree there. We 0:45:52.320 --> 0:45:54.240 want to hear your picks at them more than anything. 0:45:54.719 --> 0:45:57.920 Your your top pick divisional round this week? What do 0:45:58.000 --> 0:46:03.240 you got? Well? I went Niners at six this morning. 0:46:03.520 --> 0:46:05.120 I was kind of stuck a lot of the week, 0:46:05.239 --> 0:46:08.480 but I like San Francisco quite a bit. I can't 0:46:09.000 --> 0:46:11.640 I can't justify that number being that big, and the 0:46:11.760 --> 0:46:14.160 only way that I could get there is if I'm 0:46:14.239 --> 0:46:18.680 putting a lot of value into the first round, by 0:46:19.520 --> 0:46:23.520 a lot of value into going on the road for 0:46:23.600 --> 0:46:26.600 San Francisco into Lambeau and home field advantage and what 0:46:26.719 --> 0:46:29.840 that might equate to, because it seems like the injury 0:46:29.960 --> 0:46:33.080 report in general for San Francisco right now is a 0:46:33.200 --> 0:46:36.800 lot more positive than what we saw sort of Monday 0:46:36.840 --> 0:46:40.400 morning Tuesday morning, where like this was a number that 0:46:40.640 --> 0:46:44.640 really realistically should have been for And the only reason 0:46:44.719 --> 0:46:48.120 we're up to six now is because of those like 0:46:48.239 --> 0:46:50.799 the assumed impact of those injuries, which I think will 0:46:50.840 --> 0:46:53.480 be less than we ever thought it was earlier in 0:46:53.520 --> 0:46:56.640 the week, and so I was I was pretty happy 0:46:56.719 --> 0:46:59.560 to take six. Obviously. If there's a setback for Garoppolo, 0:47:00.080 --> 0:47:04.239 this bad is dead but plays and is healthy, um 0:47:04.760 --> 0:47:07.560 which I think he will be enough to maneuver this 0:47:07.680 --> 0:47:09.919 offense and just this matchup they have on the ground 0:47:09.960 --> 0:47:12.040 against the Packers defense. So I just think it's too 0:47:12.080 --> 0:47:14.600 many points. That makes what is that four of us 0:47:14.680 --> 0:47:16.759 now on the Niners? Todd, were you on the nighter 0:47:16.840 --> 0:47:18.799 you stayed away from that? No, he had totally stayed 0:47:18.840 --> 0:47:21.360 away from I stayed away from that. I just figured 0:47:21.360 --> 0:47:24.040 to give something different because I'm way behind. Anyways, that's 0:47:24.080 --> 0:47:26.040 four of us on the Niners plus the points. Todd, 0:47:26.080 --> 0:47:30.240 you're mathematically eliminated. You're not way behind, Okay, I'm sorry 0:47:30.320 --> 0:47:34.640 that I'm mathematically got me, You got You're you're going 0:47:34.680 --> 0:47:37.440 to be mathematically I'd like to point out your circuit 0:47:37.680 --> 0:47:40.840 and three entry did go fifty? Thank you, thank you? 0:47:41.320 --> 0:47:43.400 How much did you win on that? And then what 0:47:43.520 --> 0:47:45.160 does that do though? What does that do for the 0:47:45.280 --> 0:47:47.920 raj bodies and the trip Teppers? What does that do 0:47:48.040 --> 0:47:52.399 for them? They need winners on this podcast, the raj 0:47:52.560 --> 0:47:55.040 Bodies and the Trip Tappers. We love Raj Body and 0:47:55.120 --> 0:47:58.080 we love Trip Tepper, and they love Todd, who does 0:47:58.200 --> 0:48:01.920 not well some people add uh, I told you not 0:48:02.080 --> 0:48:04.600 to bet pre game in the NFL, even your you 0:48:04.719 --> 0:48:08.680 guys with your stellar seven nine and one record would 0:48:08.719 --> 0:48:11.640 not have shown a profit. My friend in games where 0:48:11.680 --> 0:48:16.959 it's at in the national Mike Mike I was talking 0:48:17.080 --> 0:48:22.160 to Mike's filthy about not yours? How dare you short 0:48:22.239 --> 0:48:25.640 change me? Adam? What's uh? What do you like besides that? 0:48:25.800 --> 0:48:28.800 What's your number? Two? So? I think we have to 0:48:28.880 --> 0:48:31.440 go Titans Bengals here and get that discussion out. I 0:48:31.520 --> 0:48:33.879 haven't seen missed what you guys might have got into 0:48:33.920 --> 0:48:35.879 with that. Am I allowed to give out a prop 0:48:36.120 --> 0:48:37.880 or is that against the rule? You're allowed to do 0:48:38.000 --> 0:48:40.080 whatever you want. It won't count as your number two, 0:48:40.160 --> 0:48:42.760 But well you're allowed to give that out too. Okay. 0:48:43.520 --> 0:48:46.759 So another bet that I got into this morning was 0:48:47.080 --> 0:48:51.279 Julio over forty five receiving yards forty five and a 0:48:51.360 --> 0:48:55.640 half um and the reason being because the Henry returned. 0:48:55.880 --> 0:48:59.280 So we've heard kind of in the last twelve hours 0:48:59.400 --> 0:49:03.680 for six Uh, he's sort of gonna be capped out 0:49:03.760 --> 0:49:06.359 at fifteen touches. That's kind of the limit that they're 0:49:06.360 --> 0:49:09.000 putting on him. So there's still gonna be like usage 0:49:09.040 --> 0:49:12.080 for Foreman, But with how similar they are, I think 0:49:12.160 --> 0:49:14.480 the actual biggest impact that Henry is going to have 0:49:14.600 --> 0:49:16.719 returning is how much he's going to open up the 0:49:16.800 --> 0:49:21.279 Titans passing game. There was eleven percent of snaps this 0:49:21.400 --> 0:49:25.320 season four the Titans were played with Brown, Julio and 0:49:25.440 --> 0:49:28.200 Henry on the field, and Tannehill had like nine and 0:49:28.239 --> 0:49:32.000 a half yards per tempt relative to just over five 0:49:32.360 --> 0:49:35.520 without them. So I actually think it's a big passing 0:49:35.560 --> 0:49:39.800 game opportunity for Tennessee overall. And so with kind of 0:49:40.280 --> 0:49:43.000 this from seven for Cincinnati banged up, they're not really 0:49:43.719 --> 0:49:45.759 going to be able to cheat, so that kind of 0:49:45.840 --> 0:49:48.440 limits them in the middle. And it's gonna put defensive 0:49:48.480 --> 0:49:50.960 backs for Cincinnati kind of on a bit of an 0:49:51.000 --> 0:49:54.400 island behind that first level of the defense. So obviously 0:49:54.480 --> 0:49:57.040 it's gonna be a sellout to stop Brown. Julio is 0:49:57.040 --> 0:49:59.440 gonna get really soft coverage because of that. So I 0:49:59.440 --> 0:50:02.160 think it's going be a big game for Jones. Um. 0:50:02.840 --> 0:50:06.880 But I'm also intrigued by the Titans as well, although 0:50:06.920 --> 0:50:09.120 where the number is now I don't love it. And 0:50:09.280 --> 0:50:12.960 this is where Chris and I were disagreeing when it 0:50:13.080 --> 0:50:14.759 was coming to where the number is and where it 0:50:14.800 --> 0:50:18.000 might ultimately be going. So if I had to give 0:50:18.040 --> 0:50:21.239 a second bat that wasn't the prop, I would be 0:50:21.320 --> 0:50:26.200 looking at Tennessee. There we go, Tennessee. So you you, 0:50:26.440 --> 0:50:30.160 me and Mikey same exact two picks, although we had 0:50:30.200 --> 0:50:33.520 Tennessee first, San Francisco second. And the Julio Jones thing 0:50:33.600 --> 0:50:36.560 is is interesting at him because I got ed fang 0:50:36.760 --> 0:50:38.880 from the power rank was on the Numbers game yesterday, 0:50:39.200 --> 0:50:41.800 and he was talking about how he thought that Tennessee 0:50:41.920 --> 0:50:45.680 was way overrated and that Dante Dante Foreman's rushing yards 0:50:45.719 --> 0:50:48.279 and runs after the contact or the exact are kind 0:50:48.320 --> 0:50:50.480 of the same as Derrick Henry's. And I pushed back 0:50:50.560 --> 0:50:52.440 on it. I love it, It's my guy, but I 0:50:52.520 --> 0:50:54.920 pushed back on it. I just said, this is this 0:50:55.040 --> 0:50:58.399 is sort of the uh, the moment where analytics goes 0:50:58.520 --> 0:51:01.480 overboard to me, right, Like, I love analytics as much 0:51:01.520 --> 0:51:02.799 as the next guy, but it's sort of like Todd, 0:51:02.920 --> 0:51:05.080 you'll appreciate this. I brought up the Doctor Bob thing 0:51:05.320 --> 0:51:07.400 when he said that Kevon Looney meant more to the 0:51:07.440 --> 0:51:10.120 Warriors than Clay Thompson did. Right, It's sort of the 0:51:10.200 --> 0:51:12.520 Potty Tang moment if you're ever familiar with Chris Rock's 0:51:12.560 --> 0:51:15.200 character Potty Tang, where the whole bit was Pootty Tank 0:51:15.280 --> 0:51:17.600 spoken jibberish and Chris Rock would ask him the three 0:51:17.600 --> 0:51:19.839 consecutive questions. He would answer in gibberish and Chris Rock 0:51:19.840 --> 0:51:22.400 will be like, yeah, yeah, no, I totally get it, 0:51:22.600 --> 0:51:25.080 and then Potti Tang would speak of the fourth answer 0:51:25.160 --> 0:51:29.000 in jibberish too, and Chris Rock will be like, what motherfucker, 0:51:29.080 --> 0:51:30.680 what the funk are you talking about? And he kick 0:51:30.760 --> 0:51:33.160 him off the show. And I felt like the Doctor 0:51:33.280 --> 0:51:36.359 Bob Kevin Kavon Looney thing and Ed saying that about 0:51:36.400 --> 0:51:38.439 Derrick Henry and Dante Form And that's the pootty Tang 0:51:38.520 --> 0:51:42.240 moment to me where it's like, Okay, there's clearly something 0:51:42.520 --> 0:51:47.320 in that number that doesn't capture the broader point of 0:51:47.440 --> 0:51:51.000 a team sport, right. It's different in tennis or in baseball, 0:51:51.040 --> 0:51:53.680 which is an individual sport disguise as a team sport 0:51:53.680 --> 0:51:56.320 in my opinion, where when there's too many moving parts 0:51:57.200 --> 0:52:00.439 then it becomes a little more nebulous. And so I guess, Adam, 0:52:00.480 --> 0:52:03.440 when I'm with the Julio Jones thing, isn't that exactly 0:52:03.520 --> 0:52:07.800 it that Derrick Henry somehow makes everything open up for 0:52:08.239 --> 0:52:11.680 Ryan Tannell. It's one of the aspects anyway, Yeah, this 0:52:11.880 --> 0:52:14.359 is this is not a bat on the Titans because 0:52:14.440 --> 0:52:16.759 Henry is going to be really successful and run for 0:52:16.800 --> 0:52:20.120 two hundred yards. He might he we haven't seen him 0:52:20.160 --> 0:52:22.800 play in nine weeks. I'm not discounting that, but every 0:52:22.920 --> 0:52:25.560 snap that he is on the field completely changes how 0:52:25.640 --> 0:52:28.720 teams have to defend this offense and it just opens 0:52:28.800 --> 0:52:32.040 up so much in the past. That's exactly I agree completely. 0:52:32.120 --> 0:52:34.759 Do you can I push back against you on your whole, 0:52:34.880 --> 0:52:36.880 on your thing. We'll go ahead and ask you. I 0:52:36.920 --> 0:52:39.000 was just gonna do you think that they stick to 0:52:39.080 --> 0:52:41.160 the pitch count? Do you think that if Derrick Henry 0:52:41.200 --> 0:52:44.320 starts busting out runs that they're gonna stick to fifteen 0:52:44.400 --> 0:52:50.840 carries if it's a tight game? Good question. Yeah. He 0:52:51.000 --> 0:52:53.680 came out after the interview yesterday, like what's the biggest 0:52:53.719 --> 0:52:57.040 difference now versus earlier in the season, And he's like, Wow, 0:52:57.160 --> 0:53:00.160 I have a giant metal plate in my foot. It's 0:53:00.239 --> 0:53:03.480 like you hear that, Like it's not like he's not 0:53:04.520 --> 0:53:08.239 there's no way. And so it's hard to say, but 0:53:08.520 --> 0:53:11.040 like if he's going wild, they might give him a 0:53:11.080 --> 0:53:14.200 few extra touches. But it just seems like he has 0:53:14.239 --> 0:53:17.520 impact overall is a little bit overstated to what it 0:53:17.640 --> 0:53:20.640 actually means for the passing game of this offense, which 0:53:20.719 --> 0:53:23.600 I think it's more implotant Todd, You're gonna say, I 0:53:23.800 --> 0:53:26.239 was just gonna say that. I I sort of hear 0:53:26.280 --> 0:53:28.400 a little bit about what ed fan is saying I 0:53:28.440 --> 0:53:30.799 understand what you're saying, and I don't discount what you're saying. 0:53:31.040 --> 0:53:33.640 I just think that in the running back is the 0:53:33.719 --> 0:53:37.040 one position where if you're the best running back, you're 0:53:37.120 --> 0:53:41.319 not that much better than every other great running back 0:53:41.760 --> 0:53:45.759 versus say receiver or quarterback. Meaning let's say that the 0:53:46.080 --> 0:53:49.399 the the the elite running backs are one point two 0:53:49.480 --> 0:53:52.000 in the average running backs a one, Derrick Henry say 0:53:52.120 --> 0:53:55.040 one point three five, whereas on the receivers it might be, 0:53:55.520 --> 0:53:57.759 you know, the average receivers are one the real good 0:53:57.800 --> 0:53:59.640 ones at one point two and Cooper Cups at one 0:53:59.680 --> 0:54:02.960 point six. My my point is that running back just 0:54:03.280 --> 0:54:07.000 cannot due to the fact that he's so um. He 0:54:07.520 --> 0:54:09.840 depends so much on his line and his holes the 0:54:09.960 --> 0:54:14.279 Nase Harris situation where he gets zero holes running and 0:54:14.440 --> 0:54:17.480 if you have a good line. Granted, Derek, I'm not 0:54:17.600 --> 0:54:19.640 I'm not taking away what you're saying. I agree with 0:54:19.719 --> 0:54:22.080 what you're saying. I still think Derrick Henry and is 0:54:22.200 --> 0:54:25.120 obviously a difference maker. I just think the amount of 0:54:25.200 --> 0:54:27.200 difference is not as much as in another And I 0:54:27.239 --> 0:54:29.600 don't and I don't disagree with what you're saying. I 0:54:29.760 --> 0:54:31.880 do think there are exceptions to the rule, and I 0:54:31.960 --> 0:54:34.440 think in the case of Derrick Henry, you have a 0:54:34.520 --> 0:54:37.800 guy who has more potential to bust out long ones 0:54:38.440 --> 0:54:41.200 in a way that he actually is a sort of unicorn. 0:54:41.320 --> 0:54:44.759 I see you nodding, Adam, Yeah, good, Todd. I I 0:54:44.880 --> 0:54:47.080 agree completely, but Gil, like you're saying, so, it's like 0:54:47.440 --> 0:54:52.000 Henry's probably the exception. Now, maybe Dalvin cooked to an extent, 0:54:52.640 --> 0:54:54.759 but then in the past, it was like when Zeke 0:54:55.040 --> 0:54:58.120 was like prime Zeke, you mean, when he could run 0:54:58.239 --> 0:55:01.600 sort of built around him, he was worth a lot 0:55:01.719 --> 0:55:04.040 more than an average running back ever used to be. 0:55:04.239 --> 0:55:06.719 And then it was like Adrian Peterson back with the 0:55:06.880 --> 0:55:09.920 Vikings nine, ten years ago, whatever it was now that 0:55:10.080 --> 0:55:14.480 was kind of the exception. So there's always like exactly right, 0:55:14.840 --> 0:55:17.320 but there's always like one or two guys at the 0:55:17.400 --> 0:55:20.200 most the season for running back where the offense is 0:55:20.239 --> 0:55:22.640 just so built around what they do. In this case, 0:55:22.719 --> 0:55:25.399 it's the Titans with play action. It works with any 0:55:25.480 --> 0:55:28.360 running back, it doesn't matter who's back there. But for whatever, 0:55:28.640 --> 0:55:31.680 just that big playability Henry has just opens up play 0:55:31.680 --> 0:55:34.480 action that much more and how much the Titans depend 0:55:34.520 --> 0:55:36.560 on it. I think it's it's like the exception in 0:55:36.600 --> 0:55:38.360 the league. Right. No, No, I totally agree with what 0:55:38.440 --> 0:55:41.680 you're saying about making it more able to throw because 0:55:41.680 --> 0:55:44.279 the other team's gonna key on on Henry. But I 0:55:44.400 --> 0:55:47.000 just meant that, so I guess yeah, to that extent, 0:55:47.120 --> 0:55:49.640 it helps the overall offense a lot, of course. Yeah, 0:55:49.880 --> 0:55:51.719 I want to ask uh, We're not gonna ask the 0:55:51.800 --> 0:55:53.200 normal two questions I think, but I want to ask 0:55:53.280 --> 0:55:55.320 sort of three here at the end. One when our teasers, 0:55:55.360 --> 0:55:57.719 we have to do our teach our teasers of the week. Okay, yes, 0:55:57.760 --> 0:56:00.640 our teaser up. Sorry, thank you. Todd goes first. Todd, 0:56:00.719 --> 0:56:04.319 you go first. Under what's the over under on how 0:56:04.360 --> 0:56:06.440 many times Deal will mess up the format in a 0:56:06.560 --> 0:56:09.640 twenty week mega pod season. Well, he messed up the 0:56:09.680 --> 0:56:11.680 format more than twelve and a half or lesson Twoman, 0:56:11.719 --> 0:56:15.279 I put it about twelve and ten and a half 0:56:16.280 --> 0:56:19.440 every other week, every other week. I have no brain anymore. 0:56:19.560 --> 0:56:21.560 I really, I'll take the over. But I mean you don't. 0:56:21.640 --> 0:56:23.680 You don't work enough. I mean you're only on the 0:56:23.760 --> 0:56:26.960 air a couple of times a day. That's it. Um, 0:56:27.160 --> 0:56:30.280 so first, because we're gonna be I'll go with the teaser. 0:56:30.440 --> 0:56:34.240 I'll go with the teaser of the buff Bills plus 0:56:34.360 --> 0:56:37.160 the eight and a half, I believe is what I'm getting. Um, 0:56:37.960 --> 0:56:40.879 you know, just for the obvious reasons why you would 0:56:40.920 --> 0:56:43.680 want that. I also think the Bills can hang with them. 0:56:44.000 --> 0:56:46.840 And I'm also gonna go with the Rams because I 0:56:46.960 --> 0:56:49.359 did like the Rams is my third pick. I am. 0:56:49.600 --> 0:56:51.399 The only thing that I'm afraid of his, of course, 0:56:51.480 --> 0:56:53.600 is Stafford. But if i can get nine points with 0:56:53.719 --> 0:56:58.000 the Rams, I'm less afraid. I do think, and I thought, oh, 0:56:58.360 --> 0:57:00.479 the last eight weeks, there's something wrong with the Bucks. 0:57:00.560 --> 0:57:03.880 You want with plus nine? You went with the traditional 0:57:04.000 --> 0:57:06.960 John Ferguson tweet teaser there. Oh yeah, I've got to 0:57:07.000 --> 0:57:10.320 hold my half game lead Stanford long teaser Mike the 0:57:10.480 --> 0:57:15.920 real name Musage, like the traditional John Ferguson, who apparently 0:57:16.000 --> 0:57:19.120 it was in the San Diego were told, Mikey, you 0:57:19.120 --> 0:57:21.280 want to do yours first, I'm forced to use game 0:57:21.360 --> 0:57:25.880 theory here is I'm gonna go forty Niners and I'm 0:57:25.920 --> 0:57:29.320 gonna tease through the zero with the Titans. Because I'm 0:57:29.360 --> 0:57:32.480 already on the Rams and I'm on the Chiefs. I 0:57:32.560 --> 0:57:34.480 have to catch up with Chris. I have to catch 0:57:34.600 --> 0:57:36.800 up I only have I have two picks, and I'm 0:57:36.840 --> 0:57:38.720 an half behind. I have to catch up with them. 0:57:39.040 --> 0:57:47.280 I'm gonna I have to game theory here. Game And 0:57:47.360 --> 0:57:50.040 what Adam said is so true. Don't say that on Twitter. 0:57:50.320 --> 0:57:53.800 It's very true. Oh the ship you'll get He tweeted 0:57:53.840 --> 0:57:56.680 that tweet. All set it on our show that he 0:57:56.760 --> 0:58:00.400 teases through zero in real life. He got, he got, 0:58:00.560 --> 0:58:07.400 he got bullied well, and the suspend turned from the 0:58:07.440 --> 0:58:10.440 network for actual equal to a d y? Yeah, like 0:58:10.560 --> 0:58:12.240 if you're a player, she qual to a d y? 0:58:12.440 --> 0:58:15.000 Or about something? What would what would what would the 0:58:15.080 --> 0:58:18.080 Jewish carpenter do? Would he tease through zero? Mikey? He 0:58:18.560 --> 0:58:22.880 he turned over the money changers tables. Uh, no, gambling, Chris, 0:58:23.040 --> 0:58:25.760 what's your niners plus twelve? I'm supposed to? I should 0:58:25.760 --> 0:58:28.560 get mine for the purposes or a contest I'm doing. Uh, 0:58:29.080 --> 0:58:32.680 I'm doing ram Can I confirm Mikey for one second? 0:58:32.720 --> 0:58:36.040 So I write it down properly? Niners plus twelve, Titans 0:58:36.080 --> 0:58:38.480 plus two and a half Mike Yes, correct, Yes, Okay, 0:58:38.720 --> 0:58:42.480 Now go ahead, Gilly the stenographer needs to get it down. 0:58:43.080 --> 0:58:45.440 Don't give the impression that I'm the one that interrupts 0:58:45.520 --> 0:58:48.800 here please for just for impressing the guests. Um, I 0:58:48.920 --> 0:58:51.840 just wanted to get it correct. I understand. I'm gonna go, uh, 0:58:52.680 --> 0:58:58.720 Rams Niners, Rams, Niners, Rams plus nine and Niners plus twelve. Chris, 0:59:00.920 --> 0:59:02.720 you know last year I came up with the with 0:59:02.920 --> 0:59:05.840 the a differentiate or a different way of doing the 0:59:05.880 --> 0:59:08.840 teasers with the three pointers, right, because there was no 0:59:09.000 --> 0:59:11.400 teaser that week. So there's no teaser for me this week. 0:59:11.480 --> 0:59:15.560 But what I like to do, what I've started to do, 0:59:16.400 --> 0:59:20.920 is I start with a multipurpose teaser, so I have 0:59:21.040 --> 0:59:24.240 a specific purpose. If I've got two different games starting 0:59:24.280 --> 0:59:28.640 at two different times, I'm using that value into something else. 0:59:28.760 --> 0:59:32.560 So let's just say, uh, we'll probably get a four 0:59:32.640 --> 0:59:34.600 or four and a half on Tennessee, the way everybody 0:59:34.640 --> 0:59:36.560 loves Tennessee. You know, if you can get over that 0:59:36.640 --> 0:59:38.080 ten and a half, if you can get to like 0:59:38.160 --> 0:59:40.080 ten and a half on that and you were gonna 0:59:40.160 --> 0:59:44.760 bet Cincinnati anyway, why bet plus four? Bet the you know, 0:59:45.000 --> 0:59:48.840 take it over that ten and treat that as an 0:59:48.920 --> 0:59:52.600 isolated wager into something else that you're already know you're 0:59:52.600 --> 0:59:55.400 gonna bet that you haven't bet later on if you 0:59:55.520 --> 0:59:59.000 like green Bay that you know, and and it's six. 0:59:59.480 --> 1:00:01.720 It's plumb, the lines plummeting as we speak. It's down 1:00:01.760 --> 1:00:03.919 to five. But if it's it's it's. If it's six, 1:00:04.200 --> 1:00:08.760 take green Bay pick into something you're betting already on Sunday. 1:00:09.600 --> 1:00:12.440 And I try, I try to use the teasers like that, 1:00:13.320 --> 1:00:16.080 but you know, just on two teams by themselves. Obviously 1:00:16.240 --> 1:00:18.840 I would take Buffalo and in the Rams, but I 1:00:18.880 --> 1:00:21.200 don't like marrying. I think teasers are becoming a lot 1:00:21.320 --> 1:00:24.600 more difficult, as shown by our records. But I think 1:00:24.640 --> 1:00:27.400 that they can be valuable if you're using them for 1:00:27.480 --> 1:00:30.520 different purposes. If you've got one standalone game, like on 1:00:30.600 --> 1:00:33.360 the Thursday night games during the regular season, if you 1:00:33.400 --> 1:00:35.960 can move that into the Saturday, Sunday or Monday game, 1:00:36.240 --> 1:00:38.000 that's the way you use it. You make a full 1:00:38.240 --> 1:00:41.160 unit and you can you can split it up. Let's 1:00:41.160 --> 1:00:44.520 just say, you know, uh, you know, you're you're if 1:00:44.520 --> 1:00:46.720 you bet if your hundred dollar better you you put 1:00:46.800 --> 1:00:49.320 four different bets into four you know, you put one, 1:00:50.040 --> 1:00:53.440 you know, one major bet into the first game, and 1:00:53.480 --> 1:00:55.720 then you spread it out bunks other games you're playing, 1:00:56.280 --> 1:00:58.120 you know, later on at a different point because it 1:00:58.200 --> 1:01:00.480 gives you a bailout too, because you the options to 1:01:00.680 --> 1:01:03.480 middle get off the game that gets you extra points. 1:01:03.600 --> 1:01:06.120 They're they're just flexible, and I think the same thing 1:01:06.480 --> 1:01:10.280 bodes well. But parlay is also and you can do 1:01:10.440 --> 1:01:13.400 that actually with the alternate lines now in a lot 1:01:13.520 --> 1:01:15.840 of the a a lot of the legal jurisdictions. You know, 1:01:16.000 --> 1:01:18.479 once in a while, I'll mess around with like plus 1:01:18.560 --> 1:01:20.280 eleven and a half in one game where I'm getting 1:01:20.320 --> 1:01:22.320 nine points in one game, I'm getting five and a 1:01:22.320 --> 1:01:24.840 half in another game, and mix and match them together 1:01:25.040 --> 1:01:29.600 in essentially creating your own custom made teaser. And then 1:01:29.640 --> 1:01:31.120 you know, that's another thing I'd like to say about 1:01:31.120 --> 1:01:34.000 Buffalo Kansas City. That's a game where I want to 1:01:34.000 --> 1:01:36.640 see what the alternate lines are. You know, that game 1:01:36.680 --> 1:01:38.360 could be all over the place, so you might find 1:01:38.400 --> 1:01:41.480 some some good value there if you're betting. If you're 1:01:41.480 --> 1:01:43.800 betting Buffalo Kansas City on the line, aren't you just 1:01:43.880 --> 1:01:47.640 an action junkie at this point? Probably because I don't 1:01:47.640 --> 1:01:51.680 know how you predict. You know, Buffalo is inconsistent, Kansas 1:01:51.720 --> 1:01:56.240 City is more steady. Eddy um, But but but I 1:01:56.320 --> 1:01:58.120 think I could see more variants. I mean, you just 1:01:58.200 --> 1:02:00.000 don't know what's going to go there. Adam, what's your 1:02:00.080 --> 1:02:04.920 favorite teaser? If you were forced to bet one, I 1:02:05.360 --> 1:02:08.680 forced a bet one, you probably have to go same 1:02:08.720 --> 1:02:11.840 as what Chris said, Buffalo l a just numbers wise, 1:02:11.880 --> 1:02:13.840 but I'm I'm not running to bet that one. But 1:02:14.280 --> 1:02:17.680 like you said, like the variance in that Buffalo Casey game, 1:02:19.480 --> 1:02:22.360 that that can go so many different directions. I agree 1:02:22.360 --> 1:02:24.360 it's but you know, I do want to get back 1:02:24.400 --> 1:02:28.320 to that teasing through the zero thing because I don't 1:02:28.320 --> 1:02:32.320 know whether people realize it. You're better off seeking out 1:02:32.800 --> 1:02:36.320 the alternate plus three and a half line rather than 1:02:37.320 --> 1:02:39.840 rather than teasing through the zero. You're gonna actually pay 1:02:39.880 --> 1:02:44.680 a better price just betting that side that direction. And 1:02:45.120 --> 1:02:48.760 another reason to remember why you don't do it, Every 1:02:48.880 --> 1:02:53.000 single number you go through to one, zero, one to 1:02:53.520 --> 1:02:58.760 all five of those numbers are all less valuable than 1:02:58.960 --> 1:03:01.600 every single number you go through in a wong teaser. 1:03:01.840 --> 1:03:05.320 So think about it. You're you're losing equity every single number, 1:03:05.960 --> 1:03:07.920 and that's a lot of equity when it adds up. 1:03:08.000 --> 1:03:09.360 And the other way to the anxiety and the other 1:03:09.400 --> 1:03:10.680 way to think about it is if you think about 1:03:10.800 --> 1:03:12.920 if you think about people who tease in other sports, 1:03:13.480 --> 1:03:17.440 how those numbers are not as valuable as key numbers 1:03:17.480 --> 1:03:20.280 in the NFL. And so what you're doing teasing through 1:03:20.320 --> 1:03:24.680 the zero is reducing the importance of teasing in the NFL. Right, 1:03:25.000 --> 1:03:27.360 If you were playing in a contest and it was 1:03:27.440 --> 1:03:29.680 a teaser contest and you had two weeks left and 1:03:29.720 --> 1:03:32.440 you were trailing by a game you didn't but I'm 1:03:32.480 --> 1:03:35.000 gonna ask you about this, But you handicapped that you 1:03:35.200 --> 1:03:39.120 think Tennessee is is better by eight and this line 1:03:39.200 --> 1:03:41.479 is four, right, and so you're on Tennessee in life. 1:03:42.200 --> 1:03:44.400 But you have to tease this game through game theory? 1:03:44.520 --> 1:03:47.960 Are you better off to tease against what you handicapped 1:03:48.000 --> 1:03:50.560 the game and take Cincinnati up to ten? Then going 1:03:50.640 --> 1:03:54.640 through the zero, well, I'm going with what if I'm 1:03:54.960 --> 1:03:56.920 secure with my handicapping, I have to go with what 1:03:57.000 --> 1:04:00.160 I'm handicapping correct, all right here, So let's do rapid fire. 1:04:00.240 --> 1:04:02.920 Last three questions. One, we'll just go around the horn here. 1:04:03.240 --> 1:04:05.959 If you had to bet aside in each of these 1:04:06.680 --> 1:04:09.160 three of the four but one that you you hated 1:04:09.200 --> 1:04:16.959 the most, that game is okay, everybody believes that Adam YouTube. Okay, 1:04:16.960 --> 1:04:21.959 we all. Okay, Next question, rank for me from most 1:04:22.120 --> 1:04:28.320 likely to least likely the dog's winning outright, Chris, most 1:04:28.400 --> 1:04:33.240 likely to least likely. Oh, I'm gonna go with the least. 1:04:33.240 --> 1:04:36.560 I'm gonna go backward. I think Cincinnati is probably the 1:04:36.720 --> 1:04:46.160 least likely. Okay, and San Francisco, Buffalo, the Rams. I 1:04:46.200 --> 1:04:49.680 think the Rams are the most likely dog to win. Okay, 1:04:49.720 --> 1:04:55.800 so Rams, so Rams Buffalo, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Bill's Ram, 1:04:56.000 --> 1:05:00.280 San Francisco, Cincinnati, Dodd, I think the ram are the 1:05:00.360 --> 1:05:03.760 most likely to win as a dog, and then, uh, 1:05:04.720 --> 1:05:17.440 Cincinnati's least likely. I would say Bills, Niners, Rams, Bengals, Bills, Niners, Rams, Bengals. 1:05:17.840 --> 1:05:27.680 I will yeah, I will go. I will go Rams, Bills, Niners, Bengals. Okay, 1:05:27.680 --> 1:05:29.920 and then the final question, let's do that little guessing 1:05:29.960 --> 1:05:33.600 lines thing Mike for the for the championship games, and 1:05:33.680 --> 1:05:37.160 you guys can just call these out. If Tennessee hosts 1:05:37.280 --> 1:05:44.600 Kansas City, the line will be it will Obviously there 1:05:44.640 --> 1:05:48.960 are caveats, right, but let's just say it's nothing crazy happens. 1:05:49.040 --> 1:05:53.720 There's no slam dunk blowout. Let's just say it's kind 1:05:53.760 --> 1:05:56.680 of close to form and there's no major injuries. Just 1:05:56.760 --> 1:06:01.680 play along, Toddy. Tennessee hosting can the City would be 1:06:01.840 --> 1:06:06.560 what Kansas City's favored right by? By how much? Two 1:06:06.600 --> 1:06:10.600 and a half? Two and a half? Interesting? One? One? 1:06:11.840 --> 1:06:15.800 I actually take them really, m I have some people 1:06:15.840 --> 1:06:17.800 think it's some people in Kansas City be favored by 1:06:17.800 --> 1:06:21.360 more than three? Don't you know? Tennessee did Wuffalo seven 1:06:21.440 --> 1:06:24.400 to three. The score was twenty seven to three when 1:06:24.400 --> 1:06:27.120 the two teams played each other. That has to mean something. 1:06:27.200 --> 1:06:29.960 I'm not saying it means what. It has to mean something. 1:06:30.960 --> 1:06:33.560 Uh doesn't mean if Kansas City? I think so if 1:06:33.600 --> 1:06:36.840 Kansas City hosted Buffalo, what would that be? I mean 1:06:36.880 --> 1:06:40.280 if Tennessee you skipped over me? Oh sorry, Tennis, I'm sorry. 1:06:40.320 --> 1:06:42.560 And I thought you were like gonna say three three? 1:06:42.600 --> 1:06:45.520 Oh you will say three three? He's to some people, 1:06:45.760 --> 1:06:48.520 he's my three? Who are they? And what they say? 1:06:50.760 --> 1:06:57.240 If if Tennessee hosts Buffalo, what's that line? Chris Buffalo one? 1:06:57.280 --> 1:07:03.439 I'm saying, yea, Chris made a people, but it will 1:07:03.520 --> 1:07:07.880 be will be less than three. I'll say I want 1:07:07.920 --> 1:07:11.200 to go less than seven. I think it's also right 1:07:11.240 --> 1:07:13.840 around a pick. I mean all these games are going 1:07:13.880 --> 1:07:17.080 to be tight. I tell you what, I'll I make 1:07:17.160 --> 1:07:18.880 it close to a pick. But if the Bills beat 1:07:18.960 --> 1:07:21.400 Kansas City, everyone's gonna want it, and it'll be a 1:07:21.560 --> 1:07:24.600 yester two and a half. Buffalo is minus two and 1:07:24.640 --> 1:07:27.040 it could hit three. All right? And if if if 1:07:27.160 --> 1:07:31.320 Kansas City or Buffalo hosted Cincinnati, what are those numbers? 1:07:31.520 --> 1:07:33.520 Kansas City and Buffalo both together, what would they be? 1:07:33.680 --> 1:07:38.200 Kansas City would be six and a half. I'm gonna 1:07:38.200 --> 1:07:40.040 say seven, Okay, I say six and a half. You 1:07:40.040 --> 1:07:43.600 said seven two, Adam, Buffalo and Buffalo, what do you 1:07:43.640 --> 1:07:46.600 say Kansas City would be? It would be a seven 1:07:46.760 --> 1:07:51.080 even God, I even say maybe seven and a half. 1:07:51.320 --> 1:07:55.240 And Buffalo hosting Cincinnati would be six. Yeah, a little 1:07:55.320 --> 1:08:01.400 less six. I'll say six and a half. Yeah, six 1:08:01.480 --> 1:08:05.440 and a half. I'm with all you guys, all right, NFC. 1:08:05.640 --> 1:08:11.640 Last thing, green Bay hosts the um Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1:08:13.560 --> 1:08:15.480 because that whole Brady wave is going to be in 1:08:15.520 --> 1:08:18.519 the narrative still they got by the rams two and 1:08:18.560 --> 1:08:20.240 a half. I want to take green Bay right now? 1:08:20.320 --> 1:08:24.080 Can green Bay in the look ahead and half? Chris 1:08:24.160 --> 1:08:26.360 to and a half? You like? Do you think? Yeah? 1:08:26.400 --> 1:08:28.200 I think that's where it would be. What about if 1:08:28.240 --> 1:08:34.040 it's the Rams three and a half through the three? Yeah, okay, 1:08:34.680 --> 1:08:38.680 all right, Chris, you gotta thought. I think that that 1:08:39.120 --> 1:08:43.599 is three? I do too. And the Packers will crush 1:08:43.640 --> 1:08:47.360 the Rams at home and the last one, the last 1:08:47.439 --> 1:08:50.760 one will be if the Niners half full, sorry to 1:08:51.040 --> 1:08:54.519 sorry to body. If the Niners travel to Tampa Bay, 1:08:54.640 --> 1:08:58.800 what will that be? And then the Niners traveling to 1:08:58.840 --> 1:09:00.719 the Rams. What will both of those? What about Florida 1:09:00.760 --> 1:09:07.680 State against North Florida Festival? Now, Diners get three at 1:09:07.720 --> 1:09:14.599 Tampa Bay, get two and a half in l A. Okay, right, numbers, 1:09:15.120 --> 1:09:18.280 good numbers. Okay, you like that? Can I say one thing? 1:09:18.320 --> 1:09:21.600 And I have to h I was sitting talking to 1:09:21.680 --> 1:09:26.800 Matt Metcalf in the book Friday about the National Championship Game. 1:09:26.840 --> 1:09:28.960 Did you tell the people who that is? Mike? People 1:09:29.000 --> 1:09:30.960 don't know who that is? Tell them? He said, he 1:09:31.360 --> 1:09:33.920 has a role in the sports book here at runs 1:09:33.960 --> 1:09:38.320 a sports book. He said, if Georgia had Saban as 1:09:38.360 --> 1:09:43.120 their head coach and Alabama had Kirby, he didn't make 1:09:43.200 --> 1:09:46.519 that game thirteen and a half. Come on, I'm just 1:09:46.640 --> 1:09:50.400 telling you teen and a half that's how much better 1:09:50.520 --> 1:09:52.240 Georgia was talent wise. You know what the name of 1:09:52.320 --> 1:09:54.440 that you know the name of that segment should be hyperbole, 1:09:54.720 --> 1:09:58.000 do you think so? Yes? What about the what about 1:09:58.040 --> 1:10:01.920 the insurance salesman's saying the market when the market with tolerant, 1:10:01.960 --> 1:10:03.600 He's just saying that's what his true number in the 1:10:03.640 --> 1:10:07.559 game would be. I gotta run. Thanks. Thanks all right, guys, 1:10:08.760 --> 1:10:11.000 I think we've done all we can do. Gentlemen, there 1:10:11.080 --> 1:10:13.280 we go. We got all our picks. Thank you Adam 1:10:13.320 --> 1:10:16.240 for coming after your shows. I appreciate it. Man, Thank 1:10:16.280 --> 1:10:20.320 you for doing that to your C B A m 1:10:20.400 --> 1:10:24.760 v P special. Let's see Todd what Todd is? Uh? 1:10:24.960 --> 1:10:28.240 Todd is alluded to. Todd hates more than anything when 1:10:28.320 --> 1:10:30.880 we have segments on on the network. Doesn't have to 1:10:30.920 --> 1:10:32.920 be my show. I do less of it than everybody 1:10:32.960 --> 1:10:35.600 else does. Todd hates when we devote entire segments to 1:10:35.720 --> 1:10:44.400 awards markets. He hates that. Hated to do because John 1:10:44.560 --> 1:10:47.760 is this year. You know, he wiped us three times 1:10:47.840 --> 1:10:51.040 this year. That obviously everyone knows that the more you wipe, 1:10:51.560 --> 1:10:54.600 the more chances you have this year. So it's like ridiculous, 1:10:54.840 --> 1:10:56.840 but you have to understand that, but we have to 1:10:57.040 --> 1:11:01.839 fill a but jillion hours of con tis. I understand 1:11:03.000 --> 1:11:06.320 about schedule and still stay fresh. It's very impressive. Well 1:11:06.360 --> 1:11:09.479 I'm about to die at him though I'm not fresh. Yeah, 1:11:09.640 --> 1:11:12.880 content eyes maybe fresh, but I'm about to die. Yes. 1:11:15.479 --> 1:11:17.479 I leave everything out on the table. Then I go 1:11:17.600 --> 1:11:19.880 home and I go into a fetal position in the 1:11:19.960 --> 1:11:22.800 corner of my apartment by the way, before we leave, 1:11:22.880 --> 1:11:25.040 Can I just ask you, Adam, aside from golf that 1:11:25.160 --> 1:11:28.400 you feel like it's unbeatable because of that, what other 1:11:28.479 --> 1:11:30.800 sports throughout the NFL, because we all know how hard 1:11:30.880 --> 1:11:33.840 that is. What other sport would you like take a 1:11:34.040 --> 1:11:36.120 look at it and go, wait, wait too much. I 1:11:36.200 --> 1:11:38.120 can't do this. It's too hard for me. What what 1:11:38.240 --> 1:11:42.360 would you say besides golf that you said is basically 1:11:42.439 --> 1:11:46.720 just a race. Yeah, I got you. Um, I just 1:11:46.920 --> 1:11:51.000 because of how I operate now, I anything that's like 1:11:51.680 --> 1:11:54.640 really heavily model driven, and I know most of it is. 1:11:54.720 --> 1:11:57.360 But like, like if you take something like like I 1:11:57.400 --> 1:12:00.600 was saying, the w T A in play specifically, so 1:12:01.080 --> 1:12:05.559 like five six years ago, like the like you would 1:12:05.600 --> 1:12:08.840 take like someone like Anna Ivanovich for example, who was 1:12:08.960 --> 1:12:12.040 just deadly when she was down to set, like one 1:12:12.080 --> 1:12:14.760 of the best comeback players ever, and like that was 1:12:14.920 --> 1:12:18.960 always super underpriced and not accounted for, and then a 1:12:19.080 --> 1:12:22.640 lot of data started coming out and like that disappeared immediately, 1:12:23.080 --> 1:12:24.679 and so you were like a lot of those really 1:12:24.720 --> 1:12:28.920 good like subjective angles in tennis, especially in play that 1:12:29.160 --> 1:12:31.639 you could bet a lot of, and now like most 1:12:31.720 --> 1:12:35.920 of those are completely gone. So like that's where it was, 1:12:36.080 --> 1:12:38.799 and now it's it's getting really difficult. So like tennis 1:12:38.840 --> 1:12:41.840 would be one for me personally, a lot of other 1:12:41.880 --> 1:12:44.320 people still have success skill, you have a ton but 1:12:44.600 --> 1:12:47.120 it's just for how I approach it. I find tennis 1:12:47.200 --> 1:12:51.799 now really tough. Um I would say hockey is another 1:12:51.880 --> 1:12:54.960 one that with like the last three to four years, 1:12:55.080 --> 1:12:57.320 with like the advanced stats that have come in and 1:12:57.439 --> 1:13:01.640 expected goals is just brutal. And then it's not like 1:13:02.040 --> 1:13:04.559 like the Premier League and like bigger soccer leagues were 1:13:04.600 --> 1:13:07.000 ever beatable like those kind of but we're always the 1:13:07.080 --> 1:13:10.519 most difficult. But now you're seeing that ripple effect into 1:13:10.640 --> 1:13:15.280 like smaller country domestic leagues too, where it went from 1:13:15.360 --> 1:13:18.160 like you could have just like a really basic like 1:13:18.320 --> 1:13:21.560 knowledge at like a player level and just based on 1:13:21.720 --> 1:13:24.320 lineups and sourcing news. In a lot of these smaller 1:13:24.360 --> 1:13:27.920 domestic leagues, you could find advantage is just knowing like 1:13:28.080 --> 1:13:31.160 twenty to thirty key players and valuing if they're in 1:13:31.240 --> 1:13:33.560 and out. That's all completely gone now too, because you 1:13:33.640 --> 1:13:35.920 can do so much at a player level and do 1:13:36.040 --> 1:13:39.120 it so quickly that it's so difficult to compete with 1:13:39.200 --> 1:13:41.200 that now as well. Geez, Adam, when you put it 1:13:41.280 --> 1:13:43.200 that way, do you ever have thoughts in your head ever? 1:13:43.360 --> 1:13:45.400 Like I gotta hang like, I don't ever. I think 1:13:45.439 --> 1:13:46.920 there might be a shelf life to all of this. 1:13:49.240 --> 1:13:52.439 Every day it's like what they There was an article 1:13:52.520 --> 1:13:54.960 on the New York Times about how AI is destroying 1:13:55.040 --> 1:13:58.639 poker because AI has now taught poker players to play 1:13:58.680 --> 1:14:02.280 the optimum strategy in poker, and I think, really, what 1:14:02.439 --> 1:14:05.640 Adam saying, that's kind of leaking over now into the 1:14:05.720 --> 1:14:08.280 more information that's out there into these sports make them 1:14:08.360 --> 1:14:12.280 more and more unbeatable. Well, so a good story. I 1:14:12.360 --> 1:14:15.320 had Matthew Davidal who I'm sure you guys know, um, 1:14:15.520 --> 1:14:18.080 I was chatting with him on the daily show We're 1:14:18.120 --> 1:14:20.560 doing now, and he we were talking about like in 1:14:20.680 --> 1:14:23.560 play markets in the NFL, and we got into the 1:14:23.960 --> 1:14:27.320 win game, specifically the Buffalo New England game, and I 1:14:27.400 --> 1:14:29.960 was asking him, and I was like, how quickly did 1:14:30.040 --> 1:14:32.400 it take you to adjust to what was actually going 1:14:32.479 --> 1:14:35.280 on the field, because he's writing the programs that set 1:14:35.360 --> 1:14:37.880 the prices for Circa and other books and stuff, and 1:14:38.000 --> 1:14:41.000 he's like, we adjusted to it very quickly. But then 1:14:41.040 --> 1:14:42.479 I was asking him and I was like, what's your 1:14:42.520 --> 1:14:45.880 biggest weakness in a spot like that? And he's like, 1:14:46.040 --> 1:14:48.920 it wasn't the win direction or the team's going or 1:14:48.960 --> 1:14:51.920 adjusting for the quarter prices or anything like that. But 1:14:52.040 --> 1:14:54.360 he's like, it was actually it took the longest to 1:14:54.439 --> 1:14:59.280 adjust to the mac Jones in play completion problems because 1:14:59.360 --> 1:15:02.479 it was just so far out there. Couldn't get to 1:15:02.560 --> 1:15:05.200 a number and justify that price. And so when we're 1:15:05.240 --> 1:15:06.680 going back and forth, he's like, it's getting to the 1:15:06.720 --> 1:15:08.360 point and kind of what I was saying with golf, 1:15:08.400 --> 1:15:10.639 where it's like there are these models that are out 1:15:10.680 --> 1:15:12.679 there and you have to figure out like where they're 1:15:12.680 --> 1:15:15.320 gonna be wrong or what the weaknesses rather than like 1:15:15.400 --> 1:15:18.160 trying to find angles within the games. But so like 1:15:18.320 --> 1:15:20.439 in a case like that, it's like here's this event 1:15:20.640 --> 1:15:23.479 where it's like, there's the wind game and it's completely 1:15:23.560 --> 1:15:26.840 altering everything that's going on. But they're like, there's the 1:15:26.880 --> 1:15:29.280 main event that everyone focus on. It's windy, I'm gonna 1:15:29.320 --> 1:15:31.760 bet the under, like that gets priced in right away. 1:15:31.840 --> 1:15:33.960 But when you like the ripples that come from that, 1:15:34.560 --> 1:15:36.639 where you're going to like, okay, there's the wind, which 1:15:36.720 --> 1:15:38.800 means is it's going to be under Well, then there's 1:15:38.800 --> 1:15:41.400 the quarter prices. Well, then there's the field goal props. Well, 1:15:41.439 --> 1:15:43.720 then there's and you have to go so far out 1:15:43.800 --> 1:15:46.439 now to where it's like, well, actually the wind is 1:15:46.520 --> 1:15:48.360 going to impact all of this, but I'm gonna bet 1:15:48.520 --> 1:15:52.120 under completions on this quarterback because of it. And that's 1:15:52.160 --> 1:15:55.120 where like these these pricing models are becoming the weakest, 1:15:55.720 --> 1:15:57.720 and so that's where you kind of have to hunt now. 1:15:57.920 --> 1:16:01.040 But it's just it's so hard to like creatively think 1:16:01.680 --> 1:16:04.360 to get to that level which in something like but 1:16:04.439 --> 1:16:07.280 I still think it's brutal, but Adam, I still thinking 1:16:07.360 --> 1:16:10.640 football sometimes because they have to be wedded to the 1:16:10.720 --> 1:16:13.880 pregame number so much, and because there's not that many 1:16:14.000 --> 1:16:17.280 games that the modeling is taken into account. There are 1:16:17.400 --> 1:16:19.679 games that are just off. Like for instance, the Rams 1:16:19.720 --> 1:16:21.960 Arizona Cardinal game, it didn't matter what they're gonna make it. 1:16:22.040 --> 1:16:24.880 If you see that early enough, you can catch it, 1:16:25.320 --> 1:16:28.000 like if you can recognize that this game is not 1:16:28.280 --> 1:16:30.920 the way it was supposed to be. I still think 1:16:30.960 --> 1:16:33.160 there are edges in in the uh in the in 1:16:33.280 --> 1:16:36.120 game football. I mean I don't know, I think there 1:16:36.240 --> 1:16:38.560 is two. I think in case like that though, is 1:16:39.160 --> 1:16:41.599 like if you look at the pregame scenario, I think 1:16:41.680 --> 1:16:44.720 there's a lack of data on a team leading by 1:16:44.760 --> 1:16:48.639 twenty one, nothing in that dominating of a fashion at 1:16:48.720 --> 1:16:54.200 home to like accurately set that number. Whereas like, what's that? 1:16:55.040 --> 1:16:57.800 That's hard? I mean in that scenario, I would look 1:16:57.840 --> 1:17:01.320 more team totals is errors own are gonna score two 1:17:01.439 --> 1:17:03.479 touchdowns are more because like for instance, in that game, 1:17:03.520 --> 1:17:05.800 I had under I believe under seventeen and a half 1:17:06.040 --> 1:17:08.360 because I noticed pretty quickly after like two or three 1:17:08.400 --> 1:17:11.519 series Kyler Murray can't move the ball. I'll take under seventeen. Now, 1:17:11.600 --> 1:17:13.920 did that mean I was gonna win? Not for sure, 1:17:14.000 --> 1:17:16.160 Because it all comes down to the garbage time. You 1:17:16.280 --> 1:17:18.240 have to be able to notice are they going to 1:17:18.320 --> 1:17:20.760 prevent because once they're going to prevent, you gotta get 1:17:20.800 --> 1:17:22.720 back on the over of your team total, you know 1:17:22.720 --> 1:17:25.040 what I mean. So you have to watch. It's like 1:17:25.120 --> 1:17:27.920 the Steeler game against Kansas City. When Kansas City was 1:17:28.000 --> 1:17:30.040 trying on defense, they could have stopped the Steelers for 1:17:30.040 --> 1:17:31.880 a hundred years in a row. But as soon as 1:17:31.960 --> 1:17:34.360 the Kansas City got ahead by enough, you're like, oh, 1:17:34.439 --> 1:17:36.439 now they're gonna let the Steelers score. And that's exactly 1:17:36.479 --> 1:17:38.960 what happened. I think any of us who watches football 1:17:39.040 --> 1:17:42.040 could see that Kansas City went into a massive prevent 1:17:42.160 --> 1:17:44.880 defense once they got ahead seven, and I feel like 1:17:45.040 --> 1:17:48.040 that's where the edges are in realizing, Okay, how is 1:17:48.080 --> 1:17:52.840 the game fundamentally shifted? Just now? It's interesting because okay, 1:17:53.040 --> 1:17:55.760 I think you're right, but just showing how people think 1:17:55.760 --> 1:17:59.400 about this differently. So in that scenario Monday night, I 1:17:59.560 --> 1:18:03.799 went ams team total over in the second half because 1:18:03.960 --> 1:18:07.120 to me, like a fundamental difference in playoffs versus the 1:18:07.200 --> 1:18:09.800 regular season, which I think is tough to price in 1:18:09.960 --> 1:18:14.599 play is that teams don't stop playing on offense as 1:18:14.680 --> 1:18:16.519 much as they do in the regular season, and so 1:18:16.600 --> 1:18:19.040 I think we see a stark difference of like the 1:18:19.200 --> 1:18:22.320 Bills or the Chiefs or the Rams. They kept scoring. 1:18:22.560 --> 1:18:24.840 They didn't stop. They were still The Rams are running 1:18:25.200 --> 1:18:27.640 throwback passes in the middle of the third quarter, up 1:18:27.680 --> 1:18:30.640 three scores. You're not seeing that regular season. But like 1:18:30.720 --> 1:18:33.439 where you went to that angle of looking at the 1:18:33.479 --> 1:18:36.879 team under going the other way because of the prevent defense, 1:18:37.280 --> 1:18:39.160 Like my head went the other way where it's like, well, 1:18:39.200 --> 1:18:41.439 this team is going to keep scoring, and it's betting 1:18:41.479 --> 1:18:43.639 on a team that you maybe not. You're not making 1:18:43.680 --> 1:18:45.519 that bet in the regular season. And let me interject 1:18:45.520 --> 1:18:48.639 because that that's an interesting sort of nuanced conversation where 1:18:48.800 --> 1:18:52.080 Todd you're talking about recognizing defenses, and there's a difference 1:18:52.080 --> 1:18:54.000 of opinion even there in terms of how a team 1:18:54.040 --> 1:18:56.680 will play it playoffs, regular season. What about something much 1:18:56.720 --> 1:19:00.519 more defined, like in a baseball game, will blowout baseball 1:19:00.600 --> 1:19:03.559 game where they've run out of pictures and they throw 1:19:03.600 --> 1:19:05.920 in a skill position player to go on the mound. 1:19:06.760 --> 1:19:11.560 Those in game totals don't appear to me anyway to it. 1:19:12.800 --> 1:19:19.120 They're getting they're getting better, absolutely getting better. They were 1:19:19.160 --> 1:19:21.439 totally terrible. And we would go on seventh and he 1:19:21.520 --> 1:19:27.040 watching the book and be like I was the amount 1:19:27.080 --> 1:19:29.160 of text that get thrown around in those moments that 1:19:29.320 --> 1:19:32.400 we're amazing, but like that to me is okay, That 1:19:32.560 --> 1:19:34.640 to me is a less is a much less debatable thing, 1:19:34.760 --> 1:19:37.200 right that to everybody gets, oh, this guy is not 1:19:37.360 --> 1:19:40.360 here to pitch. This could get ugly. Now. We've seen 1:19:40.400 --> 1:19:43.200 sometimes where they've been successful and it's always amusing, but 1:19:43.560 --> 1:19:46.240 largely you immediately go and you're like, oh, it's this 1:19:46.400 --> 1:19:48.080 is over. Like this is not adjusted as much as 1:19:48.120 --> 1:19:50.120 it should and they're getting it's I think it's a 1:19:50.120 --> 1:19:52.680 great example of it's getting better. But it's like, to 1:19:52.800 --> 1:19:56.160 your point taught earlier, it's like, you can't really adjust 1:19:56.360 --> 1:20:00.160 something like that enough, can you? Maybe you can can, 1:20:00.439 --> 1:20:04.439 Sometimes you can't. Yeah, And that's the thing about football 1:20:04.840 --> 1:20:07.519 is like Wake Force played Army this year in college football. 1:20:07.520 --> 1:20:09.000 I don't know if you guys watch that game, but 1:20:09.520 --> 1:20:13.439 it was it was so obvious that there's there is 1:20:13.600 --> 1:20:16.640 no number possible based off the original number that can 1:20:16.680 --> 1:20:19.560 be right. B y U Virginia was another game just 1:20:19.680 --> 1:20:23.280 like that. Every single drive was a touchdown and it 1:20:23.360 --> 1:20:25.400 wasn't even hard touched on. It was like pass for 1:20:25.479 --> 1:20:28.120 twelve yards, pass for twenty five yards, past for twelve yards. 1:20:28.280 --> 1:20:30.560 You know, it was so ridiculous, and they still have 1:20:30.720 --> 1:20:32.920 to be wedded. Now they can adjust it up a 1:20:33.080 --> 1:20:35.200 little bit, but if there's three quarters of the game 1:20:35.320 --> 1:20:38.000 left and the game was a sixty, there's only forty 1:20:38.040 --> 1:20:40.479 five more points that they can can they bump at 1:20:40.479 --> 1:20:42.880 the forty eight. Sure they can make it forty eight, 1:20:42.920 --> 1:20:45.360 but they can't make it fifty eight. And that's what 1:20:45.439 --> 1:20:47.200 they should have done in some of those games, you 1:20:47.240 --> 1:20:49.280 know what I mean. And that's where I think there's 1:20:49.360 --> 1:20:51.920 there's there's advantages, you know, especially also in the in 1:20:51.960 --> 1:20:55.040 the team totaling. If you see I won so much 1:20:55.120 --> 1:20:59.680 this year, especially against college teams team total under recognizing 1:21:00.200 --> 1:21:02.840 after two or three sets, this team is averaging one 1:21:02.880 --> 1:21:05.840 point five yards of play, they're done, and the other 1:21:05.960 --> 1:21:07.519 team is not going to let them get more than 1:21:07.560 --> 1:21:09.599 two touchdown that you could get over fourteen and a half. 1:21:10.000 --> 1:21:12.080 You almost have to take the under fourteen and a 1:21:12.120 --> 1:21:13.960 half in that scenario, you know what I mean. And 1:21:14.080 --> 1:21:16.360 of course there's things that can be the two point conversion, 1:21:16.640 --> 1:21:19.240 there's different things that can can hurt you, but I 1:21:19.600 --> 1:21:23.559 really feel there's there's there's angles there. Yeah, And that's 1:21:23.680 --> 1:21:26.200 like if you're talking like a new better who's just 1:21:26.320 --> 1:21:28.880 starting now, like they're never going to have the same 1:21:28.960 --> 1:21:32.360 experience as they're here eight nineteen. It's gone forever, and 1:21:32.439 --> 1:21:34.559 so it's like, where do you start now? Aside from 1:21:34.640 --> 1:21:36.519 having the obvious, like as many books as you can, 1:21:36.640 --> 1:21:38.920 as many prices compare to get the best number, it's 1:21:38.960 --> 1:21:43.360 like find the games with the situation that's like the 1:21:43.520 --> 1:21:47.280 outlier and that's weird where something's going on. It gives 1:21:47.320 --> 1:21:50.280 you kind of like these fringe ripple scenarios off of 1:21:50.439 --> 1:21:52.720 some event that changes the game, because that's where you're 1:21:52.720 --> 1:21:56.080 gonna find value in today's betting world. And and even 1:21:56.280 --> 1:21:58.880 and even then, it's right, there's no still no guarantees. 1:21:58.920 --> 1:22:00.680 There was you know, Arena sable Banka last night. I 1:22:00.720 --> 1:22:02.680 was on air, so I didn't get I wasn't part 1:22:02.720 --> 1:22:04.800 of this, but apparently she had the yips with her 1:22:04.840 --> 1:22:07.599 serve in the first set last night, and people were 1:22:07.640 --> 1:22:10.280 going nuts like, oh my god, you can't but she 1:22:10.360 --> 1:22:12.800 lost the first set sixth one, and then of course 1:22:12.840 --> 1:22:14.720 she like you know, she regrouped that she won the match. 1:22:14.800 --> 1:22:16.400 I'm sure a lot of people lost their shirt on 1:22:16.479 --> 1:22:19.040 that too, you know, thinking oh well, you can't win 1:22:19.120 --> 1:22:21.800 them all, you know, But that's my point. Right, Even 1:22:21.880 --> 1:22:24.439 then with all the advantages we might be able to identify, 1:22:24.960 --> 1:22:27.160 the gig is you're not gonna win them all, right, 1:22:27.280 --> 1:22:29.680 that's it. It can still come back and hurt you. 1:22:29.800 --> 1:22:31.200 And and a bet that you weren't even gonna make 1:22:31.280 --> 1:22:33.479 him the first place. So I would say you put 1:22:33.520 --> 1:22:36.599 yourself in like an average Better Shoes who's like trying 1:22:36.680 --> 1:22:39.360 to do that, and it's like they going they bet 1:22:39.479 --> 1:22:42.360 a season of NFL, and like really, when you're betting 1:22:42.360 --> 1:22:45.200 the NFL and an average Better Shoes like you don't 1:22:45.240 --> 1:22:47.559 you you feel completely out of control, like you don't 1:22:47.600 --> 1:22:49.919 know what you're betting on. But like what you just describe, 1:22:50.479 --> 1:22:53.240 if like more people looked for that and bet on 1:22:53.520 --> 1:22:56.719 things like that, Like that's the type of betting scenario 1:22:56.760 --> 1:22:59.439 and angle you remember for a long time. You feel 1:22:59.479 --> 1:23:02.880 that there's some like that you can actually like put 1:23:03.080 --> 1:23:05.360 value on and at least at something, whereas so much 1:23:05.400 --> 1:23:07.680 of this is this team is eight and two on 1:23:07.840 --> 1:23:11.519 Tuesday's like all those trends, and it's just it's so 1:23:11.640 --> 1:23:13.720 much more valuable to think, like what you're saying is 1:23:14.000 --> 1:23:16.000 I'm glad you brought that up at him because it 1:23:16.040 --> 1:23:17.560 triggers and this is probably how we should edit it 1:23:17.600 --> 1:23:22.360 because the trend thing. How many people in mainstream media 1:23:22.400 --> 1:23:26.120 or maybe in gambling media brought up the fact that 1:23:26.280 --> 1:23:29.040 the Arizona Cardinals were aid and one on the road 1:23:29.360 --> 1:23:31.439 going into that game against the Rams, right like it 1:23:31.600 --> 1:23:34.640 was the thing everybody said. And then I let me, 1:23:34.960 --> 1:23:38.240 let me ask for your prediction. What percentage of those 1:23:38.400 --> 1:23:41.759 people that brought it up before the game never mentioned 1:23:41.840 --> 1:23:47.120 it once again afterwards? It's gotta be them. I'll take 1:23:47.200 --> 1:23:51.320 the over, Yes, take the over. That says everything. It's fascinating. 1:23:51.360 --> 1:23:53.519 I do want to say. I do want to add though, 1:23:54.080 --> 1:23:57.280 when you're talking about finding advantages, I think the the 1:23:57.720 --> 1:24:01.520 sport that sticks out like a sore thumb with volatility 1:24:01.920 --> 1:24:04.760 and and nuggets to be found is mm A. And 1:24:04.840 --> 1:24:08.840 I know m m A is not a people's wheelhouse 1:24:08.880 --> 1:24:11.439 in general, and quite frankly, I had no interest in 1:24:11.520 --> 1:24:14.880 it either, and I don't. I mean, but let me 1:24:14.960 --> 1:24:18.040 tell you that those markets are all over the place, 1:24:18.280 --> 1:24:22.599 and you if you there, it'll close up. But it's 1:24:22.600 --> 1:24:25.600 gonna take a while. There's just so many fights and 1:24:25.680 --> 1:24:29.880 there's so much volatility. Uh, there's value to be found 1:24:29.960 --> 1:24:34.120 in there if you put your time in there, except 1:24:34.160 --> 1:24:35.760 if I get to the point where after that, m 1:24:35.880 --> 1:24:38.519 m a, I'm quit in gambling because I can't watch it. 1:24:39.400 --> 1:24:42.080 So I mean I could agree with you. I'm short, Chris. 1:24:42.160 --> 1:24:44.720 There's there's tremendous value and but it's just like it's 1:24:44.760 --> 1:24:47.320 just unwatchable for me. I just can't watch two human 1:24:47.400 --> 1:24:50.320 beings brutalizing each other. I would much rather they put 1:24:50.360 --> 1:24:52.720 helmets on and do it at the goal line. Thank you, 1:24:53.920 --> 1:24:58.760 thank you. I wish that, guys. I appreciate it. We 1:24:58.840 --> 1:25:02.520 gotta run u Adam churn off from the simple handicap 1:25:03.000 --> 1:25:04.320 doing all this stuff. It covers. You said you have 1:25:04.360 --> 1:25:08.479 a daily show now to Adam. Yeah, we're experimenting with 1:25:08.640 --> 1:25:11.320 some stuff for the playoffs, so we just have it's 1:25:11.360 --> 1:25:15.040 basically is it. It's described Turnoff and Friends, but it's 1:25:15.160 --> 1:25:18.880 titled Covers Daily, So I'm just having having people. That's 1:25:18.880 --> 1:25:21.280 what Mikey calls the numbers game. He goes killing friends 1:25:21.400 --> 1:25:23.880 in the morning, So that I take that very kindly. 1:25:23.960 --> 1:25:26.599 I like that. Actually, uh, I think it was a knock, 1:25:26.720 --> 1:25:29.679 but I actually enjoyed that. Um and then the one 1:25:29.840 --> 1:25:34.280 in you and Chris do it every Thursday during NFL season. 1:25:34.360 --> 1:25:38.320 You do your football post. You're You're everywhere man everywhere. Yeah, 1:25:38.400 --> 1:25:40.439 I got it, got busy down the stretch. I'm waiting 1:25:40.520 --> 1:25:42.760 for three more weeks ago. Me too. I'm the same 1:25:42.800 --> 1:25:44.760 way and listen, by the way, I just want to 1:25:44.760 --> 1:25:48.439 say this. I am one grateful. It is the life 1:25:48.520 --> 1:25:50.799 I always wanted. So I'm not. I don't want anybody 1:25:50.880 --> 1:25:53.040 for some like yeah that I'm that, I'm in any 1:25:53.080 --> 1:25:56.720 way complaining Las Vegas, Chris, Chris, Chris. Before we leave, Chris, 1:25:56.920 --> 1:26:01.280 play tennis. I used to, okay, because you could come 1:26:01.320 --> 1:26:04.400 out and be part of our Las Vegas Invitational. I 1:26:04.760 --> 1:26:07.040 might just do that. But you know, raquetball ruined my 1:26:07.120 --> 1:26:09.639 tennis game. So oh interesting. When I was a kid, 1:26:09.720 --> 1:26:11.640 I played a lot of tennis and I wasn't that 1:26:11.760 --> 1:26:15.880 bad um and then I played racquetball as like a teenager, 1:26:16.720 --> 1:26:21.280 and that ruined my tennis. Get maybe a conversation, you've 1:26:21.320 --> 1:26:25.439 got the you've got the headband hair. I could see 1:26:25.479 --> 1:26:28.240 he was a great nineteen seventies top ten tennis play 1:26:28.280 --> 1:26:30.920 and I had the tennis rand get throwing down pad 1:26:31.920 --> 1:26:41.439 the oh no to the invitation the wooden racket, tube 1:26:41.479 --> 1:26:45.200 socks rolled up would be awesome. Wants to play me 1:26:45.640 --> 1:26:47.920 again in the March and I made the line eleven 1:26:47.960 --> 1:26:49.360 and a half. Hey, Tod, can I just wrap it 1:26:49.439 --> 1:26:53.080 up and we get this conversation Las Vegas, Chris, thank 1:26:53.120 --> 1:26:56.400 you for being here. Multiple contest winner, always a contender 1:26:56.439 --> 1:26:58.240 in every contest. Seems to find a way to win, 1:26:58.320 --> 1:27:01.920 whatever year. Todd wished Evans mom's cork addict skill. Alexander, 1:27:01.960 --> 1:27:05.479 thanks for listening. Best of luck Divisional round. Thanks for 1:27:05.560 --> 1:27:06.480 listening to the Megapot