WEBVTT - New Round of CDC’s COVID Guidelines Face First Test

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<v Speaker 1>It's Friday, April. I'm Oscar Ramires from the Daily Dive

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<v Speaker 1>podcast in Los Angeles, and this is Reopening America. The

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<v Speaker 1>CDC's latest round of COVID guidelines are facing their first test.

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<v Speaker 1>The guidelines now reflect a shift in priorities. They're moving

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<v Speaker 1>away from trying to eliminate the transmission of the virus

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<v Speaker 1>to reducing debts and strain on the healthcare system. We

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<v Speaker 1>will know if the guidelines fail right away, but a

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<v Speaker 1>measure of success may be harder to come by. Karen Landman,

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<v Speaker 1>Senior reporter for Health and Science at Vox, joins us

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<v Speaker 1>for more. Thanks for joining us, Karen, thanks so much

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<v Speaker 1>for having the Oscar well. The COVID pandemic is still ongoing,

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<v Speaker 1>although there's been a lot of changes Recently. We saw

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<v Speaker 1>a huge wave and we dip back down. We're starting

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<v Speaker 1>to see some case numbers take back up again, some

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<v Speaker 1>hospitalizations take back up a little bit, although at a

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<v Speaker 1>much slower pace than before. We're looking at this macrons

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<v Speaker 1>sub variant that's taken hold right now, but right now.

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<v Speaker 1>The article that you wrote about recently was about the

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<v Speaker 1>test for the CDCs guidelines, the changes that they made

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<v Speaker 1>in February to see if they work. You know, we

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<v Speaker 1>for a long time, all the numbers that we're using,

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<v Speaker 1>we're basically going off of positivity rates and cases of COVID.

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<v Speaker 1>Now we're moving to something that's looking more at hospitalizations

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<v Speaker 1>to see the burden on the healthcare system. So we've

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<v Speaker 1>made some changes. We'll see if the numbers work and

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<v Speaker 1>if guidelines keep up with all that. So Karen tell

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<v Speaker 1>us a little bit more about it. Yeah, So that

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<v Speaker 1>change that you're talking about, that shift from focusing on

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<v Speaker 1>k counts and tests to focusing on hospitalization a sort

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<v Speaker 1>of the main way of understanding the current threat level

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<v Speaker 1>from COVID in the United States. A grost people in

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<v Speaker 1>public health saw that as a really necessary move on

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<v Speaker 1>the part of the CDC, and that is because you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we just have so much home based testing happening now

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<v Speaker 1>that if we follow just you know, the results of

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<v Speaker 1>PCR tests, we're really flying blind. So we just needed

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<v Speaker 1>to use different data to understand what's going on right now.

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<v Speaker 1>At the same time, you know, there's hospitalization data is

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<v Speaker 1>not perfect because hospitalizations usually follow rises in cases by

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<v Speaker 1>anywhere from to two or more weeks, and it really

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<v Speaker 1>depends on the whole variety of other things that are

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<v Speaker 1>sort of going on with a variant and with transmission

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<v Speaker 1>and with hospitals themselves. So it's not a perfect way

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<v Speaker 1>of assessing their current threat level, but it is the

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<v Speaker 1>best way that CDC and that many others really can

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<v Speaker 1>come up with. It doesn't mean that locations, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>that individual health departments can't use other methods for assessing

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<v Speaker 1>and responding to what they think is their current local

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<v Speaker 1>threat level. And we see that, you know, Philadelphia, for example,

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<v Speaker 1>kind of did their own thing this week. They reinstated

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<v Speaker 1>a MASK mandate even though they're sort of local metrics

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<v Speaker 1>hadn't met the CDC definition of meaning to do that.

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<v Speaker 1>So CDC only makes recommendations, they don't issue requirements to

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<v Speaker 1>the local health department. So it certainly doesn't preclude local

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<v Speaker 1>health departments from doing what they think is best for

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<v Speaker 1>their municipality. And it's just guidance. And even on the

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<v Speaker 1>federal level, right, we extended the MASK mandates for travel.

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<v Speaker 1>I believe that goes until May three, so the guidelines

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<v Speaker 1>are always kind of changing on that. And to your

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<v Speaker 1>point about home testing, right, more people are testing at home.

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<v Speaker 1>Nobody is required to submit that anywhere, and a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of people probably don't. They say, oh, I'm sick, I'm

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<v Speaker 1>just gonna say home for a few days and back

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<v Speaker 1>to it when you get better. You know, all those

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<v Speaker 1>PCR tests before were reported back, so the at least

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<v Speaker 1>with those case counts, that number was a lot more accurate.

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<v Speaker 1>Now it's we can't really clean much off of those numbers.

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<v Speaker 1>And so the new format now has kind of this

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<v Speaker 1>color coded thing, you know for communities low, medium, and high.

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<v Speaker 1>How does that work? How do we anticipate what's going

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<v Speaker 1>to be happening with those the low medium, high for

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<v Speaker 1>a green, yellow, and red or orange are meant to

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<v Speaker 1>basically help both people and institutions and public health departments

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<v Speaker 1>figure out where their county stands right now. And this

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<v Speaker 1>has base fund a model that they used deaths as

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<v Speaker 1>the endpoint, so they basically tried to figure out how

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<v Speaker 1>early or what level they needed to see hospitalization, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>what threshold they needed to see hospitals hospital as they

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<v Speaker 1>sat to reach in order to allow public health authorities

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<v Speaker 1>and individuals about three weeks time to take action in

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<v Speaker 1>order to prevent deaths from rising. So it's purposefully the

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<v Speaker 1>alarms are set really low, at really low threshold so

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<v Speaker 1>that they're triggered really early on to allow time to

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<v Speaker 1>implement prevention strategies. So what we've seen over the last week,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe a little bit more than a week, is very slowly.

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<v Speaker 1>A few areas on the map have become have gone

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<v Speaker 1>for being green to being yellow, and a few have

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<v Speaker 1>converted even to being read. So you know, we are

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<v Speaker 1>seeing a little bit of a bump in alarm going

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<v Speaker 1>off throughout the country. As you wrote in the article too,

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<v Speaker 1>this is going to be as we keep progressing right now,

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<v Speaker 1>it will be a test of the CDC's new guidelines

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<v Speaker 1>of failure. Will obviously be able to see if people

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<v Speaker 1>are getting sick and there's a whole new wave and

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<v Speaker 1>hospitals are overwhelmed, you know, we're going to know the

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<v Speaker 1>tactics didn't work so well. But measuring success is a

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<v Speaker 1>lot more difficult. I mean, we have to define what

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<v Speaker 1>that success is too. But you know, who knows if

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<v Speaker 1>we can attribute to the CDC or if everybody has

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<v Speaker 1>just gotten sick enough that they're not getting as sick,

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<v Speaker 1>the severe illness isn't cropping up as much, right So

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<v Speaker 1>I think that is one possibility basically that effectively, this

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<v Speaker 1>won't even really be a test of the CDC guidelines.

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<v Speaker 1>If this big big, if then be a two waves

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<v Speaker 1>as small. That doesn't mean that we won't have a

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<v Speaker 1>future variant wave that does test the CDC guidelines. But

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<v Speaker 1>you know, there is a possibility just because we had

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<v Speaker 1>so much omicron explosure during the b A one way,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a possibility that there aren't that many susceptible people

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<v Speaker 1>still left out there anymore. A modeling study back and

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<v Speaker 1>a couple of months ago, I think showed around the

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<v Speaker 1>estimate of folks in the United States who had immunity

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<v Speaker 1>either from exception or from vaccination. So I think there's

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<v Speaker 1>still a possibility that there are lots of people out

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<v Speaker 1>there who could get thick enough to really test this,

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<v Speaker 1>but also a possibility that there aren't. But that's not

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<v Speaker 1>the only way that this could be a difficult time

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<v Speaker 1>to assess whether these guidelines are succeeding. Yeah, it's definitely.

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<v Speaker 1>It does seem like we're in this other phase of

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<v Speaker 1>the pandemic now, and at least for the CDC definitely

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<v Speaker 1>trying to move away from eliminating transmission of the virus.

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<v Speaker 1>It just seems like we can't get that into control.

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<v Speaker 1>But reducing debts and hospitalizations, the strain on the health

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<v Speaker 1>care system, that's what these new guidelines are aiming to do.

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<v Speaker 1>Karen Landman, Senior reporter for health and Science at Vox,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you very much for joining us. Thank you so

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<v Speaker 1>much for having me after a take care, I'm Oscar

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<v Speaker 1>Ramirez and this has been reopening America. Don't forget that.

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<v Speaker 1>For today's big news stories, you can check me out

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