WEBVTT - Lack of Bids For EM High Yield Debt: Bloomberg's Sassower 0:00:05.800 --> 0:00:08.720 Welcome to the Bloomberg p m L Podcast. I'm pim Fox. 0:00:08.760 --> 0:00:11.520 Along with my co host Lisa Bramowitz. Each day we 0:00:11.640 --> 0:00:15.120 bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for 0:00:15.200 --> 0:00:17.840 you and your money, whether you're at the grocery store 0:00:17.960 --> 0:00:20.720 or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg p m L 0:00:20.840 --> 0:00:31.760 Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot com. Emerging 0:00:32.000 --> 0:00:35.880 Markets debt this is a big question mark right now 0:00:36.159 --> 0:00:39.240 for a lot of fund managers. You have seen outflows 0:00:39.280 --> 0:00:43.120 continue from the largest emerging markets debt e t F 0:00:43.159 --> 0:00:47.120 and emerging market high yield yields are currently lower than 0:00:47.200 --> 0:00:50.960 similarly rated debt yields in the US UH. This has 0:00:51.040 --> 0:00:54.840 only occurred twice. In both instances, it has reversed in 0:00:54.960 --> 0:00:57.520 less than one month. Here to talk about that with us, 0:00:57.840 --> 0:01:02.200 Damien Sassauer, our own of Mberg Intelligence, who focuses on 0:01:02.320 --> 0:01:04.520 everything having to do with emerging markets. Thank you so 0:01:04.640 --> 0:01:06.720 much for being with us. So tell us what is 0:01:06.760 --> 0:01:09.440 going on and why has there been this resilience in 0:01:09.520 --> 0:01:12.640 emerging markets do you haven't seen as much in other 0:01:12.840 --> 0:01:15.400 US as a classes. Well, first of all, Happy Year 0:01:15.480 --> 0:01:19.280 of the Dog, Lisa pim Um. So you know, wait, yeah, 0:01:19.319 --> 0:01:22.160 of course, you know China is emerging market, so anyway, UM, yeah, 0:01:22.160 --> 0:01:24.679 So let's talk about emerging market high yield relative to 0:01:24.720 --> 0:01:28.039 US high yield. So yes, only twice before since twelve 0:01:28.120 --> 0:01:31.040 have emerging market high yield yields will yield to worse 0:01:31.600 --> 0:01:34.880 uh drop below or dip below US high yield. And 0:01:34.880 --> 0:01:36.640 the reason for that, quite frankly, is because US high 0:01:36.680 --> 0:01:39.240 yield monk to date has sold off at a quicker pace. 0:01:39.240 --> 0:01:41.880 And the reason for that is the prevalence of call 0:01:41.959 --> 0:01:44.600 features in US junk debt. Right, So what that does 0:01:44.920 --> 0:01:48.720 adds extension risks. So when yields are rising, you see 0:01:48.800 --> 0:01:51.840 an exaggerated impact, well an exaggerated effect on US high 0:01:51.880 --> 0:01:55.000 yield relative to e M high yield. And that's actually 0:01:55.000 --> 0:01:57.360 what we're seeing right now. But let's talk about the 0:01:57.440 --> 0:02:00.320 actual market dynamic, because you pointed out some thing that 0:02:00.440 --> 0:02:03.360 was fascinating I thought, which is the bid ask spread, 0:02:03.400 --> 0:02:06.720 basically the differential of what people want the price that 0:02:06.800 --> 0:02:09.080 people want to sell the bond for versus what people 0:02:09.080 --> 0:02:12.079 are offering to buy. It's widening out a sign of 0:02:12.120 --> 0:02:15.600 illiquidity in the emerging market complex. Can you talk about 0:02:15.680 --> 0:02:18.280 that and what does this signify to you, Well, it's 0:02:18.280 --> 0:02:20.120 happening in US highyield as well, but yes, and e 0:02:20.240 --> 0:02:21.880 M high yield. What it signifies for me? And you 0:02:21.919 --> 0:02:23.960 really have to kind of drill down and see exactly 0:02:24.000 --> 0:02:27.840 which junk bonds in emerging markets are are effectively where 0:02:27.840 --> 0:02:29.959 the bid offer spreads are widening. And it's these single 0:02:30.000 --> 0:02:34.079 b these you know, I mean Zambia or Angola, these 0:02:34.160 --> 0:02:37.000 kind of smaller small terms of market value, small terms 0:02:37.000 --> 0:02:39.320 of the size of their country and their economies. There's 0:02:39.320 --> 0:02:42.440 just no demand there, the bids aren't there. When liquidity, 0:02:42.480 --> 0:02:44.680 you know, kind of drives up like we saw last Friday, 0:02:44.720 --> 0:02:47.200 and so when that happens, you know, it gives a 0:02:47.200 --> 0:02:49.320 lot of investors costs for concerning what they are then 0:02:49.360 --> 0:02:52.520 forced to do, especially the big fund managers, is they 0:02:52.560 --> 0:02:55.560 have to sell their higher quality investment grade debt in 0:02:55.639 --> 0:02:58.560 order to meet redemptions, which as we all know, are 0:02:58.560 --> 0:03:00.560 coming through this month. I mean we've seen that not 0:03:00.680 --> 0:03:03.160 just in the world's largest emerging market bond ETF, but 0:03:03.200 --> 0:03:06.560 in all emerging market that ETFs hard currency. That is, 0:03:06.800 --> 0:03:08.720 we've seen a lot of redemptions month to date, and 0:03:08.760 --> 0:03:11.880 we're only halfway through. And the Act of funds they 0:03:11.880 --> 0:03:13.800 have to meet redemptions at the end of this month. 0:03:13.960 --> 0:03:16.160 And uh, if they're seeing the same trend we're seeing 0:03:16.360 --> 0:03:18.799 uh in ETFs, it could get it could get a 0:03:18.840 --> 0:03:22.320 little uglier. So let me understand this, Damian. If an 0:03:22.320 --> 0:03:27.280 investor wants to lend their money to a middling credit 0:03:27.480 --> 0:03:33.520 emerging market company, they're going to receive less money than 0:03:33.720 --> 0:03:37.000 if they decide to lend their money to a similar 0:03:37.280 --> 0:03:40.600 rated company in the United States. Right, well, phim, let's 0:03:40.640 --> 0:03:43.960 just differentiate. I mean, it's really sovereign debt, right, I 0:03:43.960 --> 0:03:46.520 mean we're talking about a country, not a company, right, 0:03:46.520 --> 0:03:48.400 which is even worse to your point, I mean, so 0:03:48.520 --> 0:03:50.360 so you're right. So, so you're telling me that if 0:03:50.360 --> 0:03:52.560 I want to lend my money to the government of Angola, 0:03:52.680 --> 0:03:54.360 I'm going to get less than if I lend my 0:03:54.440 --> 0:03:57.200 money to the United States government or to the United 0:03:57.240 --> 0:04:01.760 States I know and equivalently rated you s high old corporate, Okay. 0:04:01.880 --> 0:04:04.760 And the reason for this is not because the United 0:04:04.800 --> 0:04:07.360 States is a better or worse bet, although you could 0:04:07.360 --> 0:04:10.080 certainly make the case that it might mean a better bet. 0:04:10.760 --> 0:04:14.240 It's because no one wants to buy your angal and 0:04:14.560 --> 0:04:17.560 sovereign debt, So you stick it in the drawer and 0:04:17.640 --> 0:04:20.800 you look for something that someone will buy, and then 0:04:21.080 --> 0:04:23.720 it shows up and it goes, oh yeah, US debt 0:04:23.800 --> 0:04:26.000 will sell that because we know someone will buy. But 0:04:26.080 --> 0:04:28.479 there lies the opportunity ten because what it does these 0:04:28.520 --> 0:04:32.040 fund managers are forced to sell higher quality, better bonds 0:04:32.040 --> 0:04:33.800 in order to meet in order to raise cash to 0:04:33.839 --> 0:04:36.480 meet redemptions. Right, So you're seeing these kind of outliers 0:04:36.480 --> 0:04:39.599 so and and they're exaggerated in environments like this, and 0:04:39.640 --> 0:04:42.000 this is where you know, the real savvy EM fund managers, 0:04:42.040 --> 0:04:44.240 you know, really earn their keep, right if they're able 0:04:44.279 --> 0:04:46.400 to kind of manage their cash balances. So what is 0:04:46.440 --> 0:04:48.679 one of these So, what is one of these uh, 0:04:48.839 --> 0:04:52.880 sort of savvy investments that is being thrown out because 0:04:53.120 --> 0:04:57.440 someone is trying to meet a redemption call and they 0:04:57.480 --> 0:05:01.960 can't find anyone to you know, by their paper from 0:05:02.120 --> 0:05:05.279 Angola at a price that they're willing to take. Well. 0:05:05.360 --> 0:05:08.359 And and I mean look the two largest most liquid 0:05:08.400 --> 0:05:11.520 credits in e M high yield our Argentina and Petrol Buss, right, 0:05:11.680 --> 0:05:14.200 I mean they are huge issuers of high yield emerging 0:05:14.279 --> 0:05:17.280 market debt and invariably, if you need to sell m 0:05:17.400 --> 0:05:19.560 e M high YELD debt to meet redemptions. I would 0:05:19.600 --> 0:05:22.000 imagine those are a source of liquidity for fund managers. 0:05:22.080 --> 0:05:25.320 So learn Portuguese, learned Spanish and lineup for some petrol 0:05:25.400 --> 0:05:29.360 bras and some Argentine bonds. Pretty much. Yeah. So, so 0:05:29.600 --> 0:05:32.400 here's my question right now, how much of this is 0:05:32.600 --> 0:05:35.960 a currency bet? Because you did see a bit more 0:05:36.080 --> 0:05:38.480 dollar strength I mean obviously now, I mean I don't 0:05:38.480 --> 0:05:40.120 want to say that a bit mar because now we're 0:05:40.120 --> 0:05:42.839 back at four year lows with a dollar. But you know, 0:05:42.880 --> 0:05:45.760 there was a little bit more strength which would which 0:05:45.760 --> 0:05:49.200 would make these investments less valuable for people who hadn't hedged, 0:05:49.279 --> 0:05:52.159 right because e M currencies were losing value against the dollar. 0:05:52.680 --> 0:05:54.840 Uh So, can you talk to us about how much 0:05:54.880 --> 0:05:56.480 that plays into this or is this something to me? 0:05:56.520 --> 0:05:58.920 At least it's all about the dollar and em local currency, 0:05:59.040 --> 0:06:01.000 especially today. And I mean this has been a big 0:06:01.000 --> 0:06:03.080 story all day long with the dollar declining to three 0:06:03.160 --> 0:06:05.320 or lows, but I mean it has fully decoupled from 0:06:05.320 --> 0:06:08.560 safe safe haven assets such as this was frong the 0:06:08.800 --> 0:06:11.880 en and gold and um. And that's good for emerging 0:06:11.880 --> 0:06:15.080 markets for now, right because you know that's Basically e 0:06:15.279 --> 0:06:17.920 M and commodities are are continuing to perform well, but 0:06:18.640 --> 0:06:20.800 it is a In fact, it is the second most 0:06:20.839 --> 0:06:23.000 crowded short and global financial markets today if you listen 0:06:23.000 --> 0:06:25.200 to Bank of America and I just I'm not sure 0:06:25.240 --> 0:06:27.719 how long dollar bears can hold on given the magnitude 0:06:27.760 --> 0:06:29.840 of this week's move. Okay, so let's say the dollar 0:06:29.920 --> 0:06:32.880 does strengthen. How much of a problem is that for 0:06:32.920 --> 0:06:34.520 these investments. Oh yeah, I think that's going to be 0:06:34.560 --> 0:06:37.000 a problem, certainly for e M local currency debt. I mean, 0:06:37.720 --> 0:06:40.000 I've seen a lot of emerging market managers come and go, 0:06:40.240 --> 0:06:42.520 you know, getting barished on the dollar. It's it's just, 0:06:42.839 --> 0:06:45.600 you know, it works when it works, and when it doesn't, 0:06:45.960 --> 0:06:49.320 it really really doesn't. How much fear are you hearing 0:06:49.440 --> 0:06:51.440 from portfolio managing? You know, I don't think it's a 0:06:51.480 --> 0:06:53.920 lot of fear, really. I think it's just more, um, 0:06:54.720 --> 0:06:56.880 it's just more that people are trying to get accustomed 0:06:56.920 --> 0:06:59.240 to this new paradigm. I mean, we all yields are rising. 0:06:59.279 --> 0:07:01.599 I mean we have autom than US yields and the 0:07:01.640 --> 0:07:04.440 impact and total returns in all emerging market asset classes, 0:07:04.480 --> 0:07:07.359 hard and local currency here to date have been you know, 0:07:07.440 --> 0:07:11.120 materially impacted by rising US yield has just dominated the 0:07:11.160 --> 0:07:14.840 impact on spread, compression and carry. So um, so that's 0:07:14.880 --> 0:07:19.440 a bad thing. What happens if this continues? Um, well, 0:07:19.520 --> 0:07:21.920 I don't know how much higher US heils are gonna go. 0:07:21.920 --> 0:07:23.760 We're gonna have to bring Ira Jersey and to answer 0:07:23.760 --> 0:07:25.720 that question. But let's say you get the tenure at 0:07:25.760 --> 0:07:29.080 three Um, you know, I mean what we're almost there 0:07:29.080 --> 0:07:31.120 when we twelve BIPs away? Right, So I think I 0:07:31.160 --> 0:07:33.960 think the US tenure. Look if it continues to go, 0:07:34.000 --> 0:07:35.560 if it goes to three and a quarter, three and 0:07:35.560 --> 0:07:37.720 a half, I think ginus and four percent. I mean, 0:07:38.200 --> 0:07:40.800 things can get really bad for emerging markets at that point. Sure, 0:07:40.920 --> 0:07:43.440 but um, but for now, I think you know, it's 0:07:43.480 --> 0:07:45.640 gonna be uh, it's gonna be steady sail until the 0:07:45.720 --> 0:07:47.040 end of the month and we see what redemptions have 0:07:47.080 --> 0:07:49.320 in store for us. All right, thanks very much, you're 0:07:49.320 --> 0:07:52.160 going to us informed. As always, he's got great research. 0:07:52.320 --> 0:07:57.440 I highly recommend it. Check it out. Yes, that is 0:07:57.560 --> 0:08:00.360 Damian Sas. He's our fixed income strategists. When it comes 0:08:00.400 --> 0:08:18.880 to Bloomberg Intelligence, all about a merchant market at approximately 0:08:18.920 --> 0:08:23.680 on people are diagnosed with colon cancer in the United States, 0:08:23.720 --> 0:08:27.320 and over fifty thousand people die from it annually. Here 0:08:27.320 --> 0:08:30.600 to help us understand this disease and ways to combat 0:08:30.640 --> 0:08:33.400 it are his Cameron Reynolds. He is the president and 0:08:33.440 --> 0:08:38.280 the chief executive of Volition r X and he joins 0:08:38.320 --> 0:08:40.560 us from London. Cameron, thank you very much for being 0:08:40.559 --> 0:08:43.199 with us. Tell us about your company and about how 0:08:43.240 --> 0:08:47.319 you became involved with Volition r X. Yes, I think 0:08:47.320 --> 0:08:50.600 cancer is something which touches everyone, and at Volition we've 0:08:50.640 --> 0:08:54.439 developed a range of different tests for different types of cancer, 0:08:54.800 --> 0:08:57.800 beginning with cole rectal cancer as as you mentioned, and 0:08:57.880 --> 0:09:00.920 ultimately the way best way to treat cancer, short of 0:09:00.920 --> 0:09:04.200 a cure, which is unfortunately not not upon us, is 0:09:04.240 --> 0:09:06.920 to find it early and get the cancer removed. And 0:09:06.960 --> 0:09:09.080 if you can do that in stage one or stage 0:09:09.080 --> 0:09:11.560 two or is a pre cancerous poll up, then your 0:09:11.640 --> 0:09:14.000 chances are surviving more than five years are very high, 0:09:14.040 --> 0:09:17.800 well over ninety. So that's what we're developing a range 0:09:17.800 --> 0:09:21.920 of different blood tests which can detect cancer and in 0:09:22.160 --> 0:09:24.640 a routine blood test, which means it can be part 0:09:24.720 --> 0:09:27.640 of your normal blood work at a very low cost. Cameron, 0:09:27.920 --> 0:09:29.760 talking about the costs. That's what I wanted to pick 0:09:29.840 --> 0:09:32.160 up on because a colon ascopy, which is the traditional 0:09:32.760 --> 0:09:38.040 method of detecting calling cancer, is very challenging and people 0:09:38.080 --> 0:09:42.240 have to be partially anaesthetized and drink all sorts of 0:09:42.280 --> 0:09:44.600 stuff and have somebody bring them home. I mean, it's 0:09:44.600 --> 0:09:47.360 a big complicated or deal. Imagine. It's also pretty expensive. 0:09:47.520 --> 0:09:49.280 Can you give us a sense of what the price 0:09:49.320 --> 0:09:52.200 differential would be from the test that you're developing versus 0:09:52.240 --> 0:09:55.440 a colonoscopy. Yeah, the colonoscopy is a very good test 0:09:55.480 --> 0:09:57.400 as far as accuracy goes, but as you say, it's 0:09:57.440 --> 0:10:01.600 very unpleasant and costly. Depending on what what state you're in, 0:10:02.360 --> 0:10:04.040 you can range up to three or four or five 0:10:04.120 --> 0:10:06.640 or six thousand dollars, so you normally don't see that 0:10:06.720 --> 0:10:08.760 except through the COPAI, but the co pay can be 0:10:08.920 --> 0:10:12.320 very large as well. So, unfortunately, because of its cost 0:10:12.360 --> 0:10:15.560 and unpleasantness, there's about thirty million Americans who are not 0:10:15.640 --> 0:10:19.880 currently screened for colon cancer. So one of the ways 0:10:19.880 --> 0:10:21.400 of getting around that is to have a low cost 0:10:21.440 --> 0:10:24.640 blood test. Ours is on a very simple platform called 0:10:24.640 --> 0:10:26.840 a lizer, So it's part of your routine blood work 0:10:27.200 --> 0:10:29.240 and we aim to price around the hundred dollar range, 0:10:29.360 --> 0:10:32.520 so it's very affordable for pretty much everyone. And because 0:10:32.559 --> 0:10:35.480 it's affordable and the decision is really taken out of 0:10:35.520 --> 0:10:38.160 your hands, if the doctor takes that extra BOXUM, like 0:10:38.200 --> 0:10:41.280 your cholesterol test, like your PSA, like all the blood 0:10:41.280 --> 0:10:44.439 tests you currently have, that really should put compliance way 0:10:44.520 --> 0:10:47.720 higher than it is now. Compliance is not something people 0:10:47.760 --> 0:10:50.439 talk about a lot, but if you're not doing the test, 0:10:50.520 --> 0:10:53.800 the accuracy is very easy to work out, which is zero. 0:10:54.400 --> 0:10:57.040 So by doing a very routine blood test is the 0:10:57.040 --> 0:10:59.160 best way of getting the most people screened. And if 0:10:59.160 --> 0:11:02.120 you do screen you can find the cancer early. Normally, 0:11:02.120 --> 0:11:05.440 you're in very good shape. Talking about tests, can you 0:11:05.480 --> 0:11:07.960 give us an update on your diagnostic test? Is that 0:11:08.080 --> 0:11:12.000 already launched in Europe? UM, We're just in the process 0:11:12.000 --> 0:11:14.800 now of doing some very large trials in Europe. We'll 0:11:14.800 --> 0:11:18.560 have about fifteen thousand patient samples run this year. UM 0:11:18.600 --> 0:11:21.240 we've made public. We're about to announce this month at 0:11:21.240 --> 0:11:23.120 the first read out on the first of those trials, 0:11:23.120 --> 0:11:26.040 which is six eight patients, which we haven't got the 0:11:26.120 --> 0:11:29.000 data from, but we're very hopeful to announce it soon 0:11:29.080 --> 0:11:31.959 and we're very hopeful that it will show something very unique, 0:11:32.240 --> 0:11:36.280 which is ability to detect early stage cancer and pre cancer. Again, 0:11:36.360 --> 0:11:39.439 that's where you really want to be diagnosed before it's metastasized, 0:11:39.480 --> 0:11:42.760 before you need chemotherapy and all those things. So we'll 0:11:42.760 --> 0:11:45.000 have a read on out on that very soon. And 0:11:45.040 --> 0:11:48.560 then we have the two big trials in Europe underway 0:11:48.640 --> 0:11:50.360 this year, which we'll have read outs on both of 0:11:50.360 --> 0:11:52.600 them this year as well. So we're very hopeful of 0:11:52.600 --> 0:11:55.200 having a product on the market for next year in 0:11:55.240 --> 0:11:58.400 Europe which is ce marked, which means we can sell 0:11:58.440 --> 0:12:02.800 in twenty eight European country. Is to to anyone clinically, Karen, 0:12:03.120 --> 0:12:07.120 just preliminary studies, do they show that the accuracy is 0:12:07.280 --> 0:12:11.559 enough to replace colonoscopies or would this be an additional 0:12:11.640 --> 0:12:14.800 test that would be done for people who might shy 0:12:14.880 --> 0:12:17.679 away from the procedure that is more invasive and so 0:12:17.720 --> 0:12:20.320 in other words, this might be another cost rather than 0:12:21.040 --> 0:12:23.360 reducing the cost of the colon asky because it wouldn't 0:12:23.360 --> 0:12:26.520 be a replacement. Yeah. No, I think ultimately, if you're 0:12:26.520 --> 0:12:28.800 currently having a colonoscopy, if you can afford it, you 0:12:28.840 --> 0:12:31.559 are prepared to do it. My advice and the correct 0:12:31.600 --> 0:12:34.120 advice is to continue taking it. It's a very accurate 0:12:34.160 --> 0:12:37.480 test and pull ups can be removed straight away. But 0:12:37.960 --> 0:12:42.800 the tragedy is that thirty Americans of screening age either 0:12:42.840 --> 0:12:45.240 not up to date or have never been screened. So 0:12:45.360 --> 0:12:47.760 the only way to reduce the massive cost not only 0:12:47.800 --> 0:12:51.240 on the healthcare system, late stage cancer patients cost up 0:12:51.240 --> 0:12:54.079 to half a million dollars to for the last few 0:12:54.120 --> 0:12:55.960 years of their life, and it's not a very pleasant 0:12:55.960 --> 0:12:58.280 few years. The only way to really deal with that 0:12:58.720 --> 0:13:02.080 to get those people screened is a low cost, easy 0:13:02.120 --> 0:13:06.000 to run routine blood test. So yes, it's correct if 0:13:06.000 --> 0:13:08.280 you if you are positive, you need a colonoscopy to 0:13:08.559 --> 0:13:11.120 follow it up. But it's a way of driving people 0:13:11.160 --> 0:13:13.600 who have a much higher chance of having cancer because 0:13:13.600 --> 0:13:16.200 they're positive in our test from actually having a colonoscopy. 0:13:16.440 --> 0:13:18.560 So ultimately being a very low cost test, it would 0:13:18.559 --> 0:13:20.160 it would save a lot of money from the healthcare 0:13:20.200 --> 0:13:24.000 system because it's apart from the human toil, it's extremely 0:13:24.000 --> 0:13:27.440 expensive treating late stage cancer patents. So we think it's 0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:30.880 the only way of really dealing with that of people 0:13:30.920 --> 0:13:33.800 who just refused to take a colonoscopy. Well, I want 0:13:33.800 --> 0:13:35.600 to push back a little bit because there are other 0:13:35.640 --> 0:13:39.240 biod tests that you know, for example, are really not 0:13:39.400 --> 0:13:42.840 very accurate one for say, varying cancer. Uh. And you know, 0:13:42.960 --> 0:13:46.840 one one concern with blood tests that have limited accuracy 0:13:47.000 --> 0:13:49.480 is that they lead to a lot more unnecessary testing 0:13:50.000 --> 0:13:53.880 um and it might end up adding to costs just 0:13:53.960 --> 0:13:58.000 by virtue of uh you know, extra perhaps I needed surveillance, 0:13:58.280 --> 0:14:00.200 uh and and and false alarms. I mean, how do 0:14:00.200 --> 0:14:03.160 you how do you respond to that? That's absolutely grect. 0:14:03.200 --> 0:14:05.120 You've got to be very careful. You're not just diagnosing 0:14:05.120 --> 0:14:08.000 a small number of late stage cancers, which many routine 0:14:08.000 --> 0:14:10.440 blood tests do do. So when you're looking at our 0:14:10.520 --> 0:14:13.200 data which is coming up very soon, looked, if you 0:14:13.240 --> 0:14:15.600 can find the cancer early and and a good percentage 0:14:15.600 --> 0:14:17.840 of them, you've got to be in the sevent or 0:14:17.840 --> 0:14:20.560 more or range of getting those numbers of cancers. If 0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:22.120 you can do that at the low cost, then you 0:14:22.120 --> 0:14:24.560 are saving the system a lot of money. You're very correct, though. 0:14:24.560 --> 0:14:28.040 If you look at a lot of screening modalities, mommography, 0:14:28.280 --> 0:14:31.000 the p s A for prostate, they're very widely carried out, 0:14:31.040 --> 0:14:32.960 but there are under a lot of criticism because if 0:14:32.960 --> 0:14:35.360 they can add more burden to the healthcare system. But 0:14:35.480 --> 0:14:37.520 if if you do what we're aiming to do, and 0:14:37.760 --> 0:14:39.840 we'll get a good read out on that in in 0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:41.760 this month, is if you can do it in a 0:14:41.840 --> 0:14:44.520 very low cost routine test, you then drive the people 0:14:44.560 --> 0:14:47.840 who are positive towards colonoscopies and then you save them 0:14:47.960 --> 0:14:50.200 at an early stage to have the treatment, which then 0:14:50.640 --> 0:14:53.400 are not only save the healthcare system the half a 0:14:53.400 --> 0:14:56.280 million dollars ODD in the treatment, but also gives that 0:14:56.360 --> 0:14:58.520 person another ten or twenty years or thirty years of 0:14:58.520 --> 0:15:01.320 productive life. So there is a lot of concern out 0:15:01.320 --> 0:15:04.680 there and very well dodge concern that you don't want 0:15:04.680 --> 0:15:06.840 to over diagnose. And the p s A for prostate 0:15:07.000 --> 0:15:09.880 is probably the ultimate example. But if if our test 0:15:10.200 --> 0:15:12.240 is as accurate as we think it's hoping has been 0:15:12.280 --> 0:15:15.520 in the previous trials, then we'd be in a very 0:15:15.600 --> 0:15:18.560 rare category of an accurate blood test that's routine, that 0:15:18.680 --> 0:15:21.520 is also low cost. And one thing which is also 0:15:21.560 --> 0:15:23.920 important is there's also a small amount of blood, so 0:15:23.920 --> 0:15:26.040 it's not a separate blood draw it so it can 0:15:26.080 --> 0:15:27.600 be done in your normal lab. You don't have to 0:15:27.600 --> 0:15:30.600 send it off somewhere else. Um. I think if we 0:15:30.640 --> 0:15:33.160 can show all of that which we're hopeful of. Then 0:15:33.200 --> 0:15:35.080 I think we'll be very unique and add a tremendous 0:15:35.080 --> 0:15:37.080 amount of the healthcare system and save an awful lot 0:15:37.080 --> 0:15:39.880 of suffering. Cameron Reynolds, thank you so much for being 0:15:39.880 --> 0:15:43.000 with us. Cameron Reynolds as president and chief executive officer 0:15:43.320 --> 0:15:46.880 of Volition our X, which is based in London and 0:15:47.000 --> 0:15:51.560 is currently testing a blood test to detect colon cancer 0:15:51.760 --> 0:15:54.720 and avoid call it well non avoid call it ask 0:15:55.120 --> 0:15:58.520 perhaps direct a greater number of people to get them 0:15:58.840 --> 0:16:15.200 should they test past it is. I want to turn 0:16:15.280 --> 0:16:21.680 our attention to infrastructure. The President did release a plan 0:16:22.080 --> 0:16:25.880 for how to unleash one point five trillion dollars of 0:16:26.040 --> 0:16:29.400 investments in the US infrastructure. Here to talk about that 0:16:29.400 --> 0:16:33.080 with us, as Christina Swallow, president of the American Society 0:16:33.120 --> 0:16:36.600 of Civil Engineers, coming to us from Washington, d C. Christina, 0:16:36.760 --> 0:16:39.880 I think that there was one really big question right now, 0:16:40.120 --> 0:16:43.360 which is how to spend this money. I mean, aside 0:16:43.360 --> 0:16:45.640 from the fact that this isn't going to necessarily uh 0:16:46.160 --> 0:16:48.600 get done in the form that he's proposing, but what 0:16:48.720 --> 0:16:51.400 needs to happen right now? So from your perspective, let's 0:16:51.440 --> 0:16:56.000 start there. So from our perspective, we look at all 0:16:56.120 --> 0:16:59.920 categories sixteen categories of infrastructure, and we recognize that there's 0:17:00.160 --> 0:17:05.199 two trillion dollar investment gap. So when we're starting to 0:17:05.240 --> 0:17:07.280 look at that, we need to make sure that we 0:17:07.400 --> 0:17:11.280 prioritize any funding that we put towards, that we prioritize 0:17:11.320 --> 0:17:13.119 it and put it towards projects that will have the 0:17:13.240 --> 0:17:17.600 most substantial economic and public benefit. We need to really 0:17:17.640 --> 0:17:20.520 make sure that we're prioritizing our projects and spending the 0:17:20.560 --> 0:17:24.320 money where it will have the most long term benefit. Okay, 0:17:24.400 --> 0:17:27.080 I mean that seems reasonable. Maybe we could go through 0:17:27.119 --> 0:17:30.199 some of the states that specifically need this kind of 0:17:30.240 --> 0:17:35.560 infrastructure spending if we can. Let's start with Massachusetts. Massachusetts, 0:17:35.600 --> 0:17:39.040 by many measures, has an issue with its water system. 0:17:39.040 --> 0:17:41.320 Their estimates that it needs about a seven and a 0:17:41.320 --> 0:17:45.040 half billion dollar flow of money in order to fix 0:17:45.119 --> 0:17:49.959 the water infrastructure. Is that something that you see as being, uh, 0:17:50.520 --> 0:17:52.960 as you just described, you know, like the biggest bang 0:17:53.040 --> 0:17:58.560 for the buck. So definitely, as Americans, every single American 0:17:58.600 --> 0:18:01.960 should be able to have access to quality drinking water 0:18:02.040 --> 0:18:04.560 as we need it. So that is definitely something It's 0:18:04.560 --> 0:18:07.640 a public health and a safety issue right having proper 0:18:07.680 --> 0:18:10.879 treatment and availability of water, so that is definitely something 0:18:10.920 --> 0:18:13.800 that should be a priority on a national level. We 0:18:13.880 --> 0:18:17.960 know that our surface transportation system is the largest piece 0:18:18.000 --> 0:18:20.840 of that infrastructure investment gap, so that's also a place 0:18:20.920 --> 0:18:24.480 where you can see the need to invest um as 0:18:24.520 --> 0:18:28.320 a priority because it drives so much of our economy. Christina, 0:18:28.400 --> 0:18:31.800 if you were designing the infrastructure plan, what would be 0:18:32.080 --> 0:18:38.560 your first location and first project. That's a good question. 0:18:38.960 --> 0:18:41.080 I really I don't know that I have a first 0:18:41.119 --> 0:18:44.240 location of first project. I would want to look probably 0:18:44.320 --> 0:18:48.040 first at our transportation system. Like I mentioned, it's half 0:18:48.160 --> 0:18:50.840 of the gap, and it drives I mean, it really 0:18:50.840 --> 0:18:56.040 does drive our economy. Infrastructure, the sort of transportation system 0:18:56.240 --> 0:19:01.359 in urban settings or in rural settings. Urban settings have 0:19:01.520 --> 0:19:04.840 the most impact on us as people, as well as 0:19:05.040 --> 0:19:09.399 on safety. When you consider that hundred on average a 0:19:09.480 --> 0:19:12.359 hundred and eighty eight million trips are made over structurally 0:19:12.359 --> 0:19:16.600 deficient bridges each day, that's something that's definitely an area 0:19:16.640 --> 0:19:18.159 that we want to make sure we focus on to 0:19:18.280 --> 0:19:22.879 improve safety and also reduce congestion so our our freight 0:19:22.920 --> 0:19:26.000 bottlenecks don't continue to exist. So that's a focus, but 0:19:26.080 --> 0:19:30.080 we can't ignore our rural areas because the freight travels 0:19:30.080 --> 0:19:31.640 across the nation, and so we need to make sure 0:19:31.720 --> 0:19:35.120 rural areas are also maintained. But definitely urban areas needs 0:19:35.160 --> 0:19:37.040 to be a focus. There is more of a focus, 0:19:37.040 --> 0:19:40.000 it seems from the President's plan on the rural areas 0:19:40.040 --> 0:19:42.600 and sort of fortifying the rural grade. Do you think 0:19:42.680 --> 0:19:48.159 that is a bad approach. I think the President is 0:19:48.200 --> 0:19:51.560 looking at the fact that our gut instinct often is 0:19:51.600 --> 0:19:55.000 to fund the urban areas, and just recognizing the fact 0:19:55.040 --> 0:19:58.720 that if we ignore the rural areas, we will be 0:19:59.080 --> 0:20:03.080 um short changing ourselves. I think about so many of 0:20:03.119 --> 0:20:06.240 the states that have these major freight networks. You know, 0:20:06.280 --> 0:20:08.119 when you think about I forty and I and I 0:20:08.240 --> 0:20:12.880 tend that crossed these significant areas of just rule. If 0:20:12.920 --> 0:20:17.159 we don't make sure that those are maintained, are the 0:20:17.200 --> 0:20:18.640 frame won't be able to get to where it's going. 0:20:18.720 --> 0:20:20.399 So we need to make sure that we also focus 0:20:20.400 --> 0:20:22.199 on that. And I think that was the intent, was 0:20:22.280 --> 0:20:25.360 just to make sure we don't ignore it. Okay, Now, 0:20:25.440 --> 0:20:30.359 the American Society of Civil Engineers, you're based in Reston, Virginia, 0:20:30.640 --> 0:20:33.200 so maybe just even close to Virginia, we can talk 0:20:33.240 --> 0:20:36.240 about in Maryland, because if you live anywhere near the 0:20:36.359 --> 0:20:40.719 nation's capital, you know that you faced daily disruptions. Right 0:20:40.760 --> 0:20:45.399 there was this big steam pipe explosion last June. What 0:20:45.520 --> 0:20:48.640 about the deficient bridges there, there's some estimates that six 0:20:49.040 --> 0:20:52.399 of them are deficient. The average commute to work is 0:20:52.480 --> 0:20:56.080 over thirty two minute. What kind of money and what 0:20:56.200 --> 0:21:00.520 specific roads or infrastructure would you recommend that we've focus on. 0:21:02.600 --> 0:21:05.199 We've talked about bridges, and we definitely know in the 0:21:05.280 --> 0:21:08.480 DC area they're working on improving the Frederick Douglas Bridge. 0:21:08.520 --> 0:21:11.240