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Speaker 2: Man.
Speaker 1: Thursday morning, December fifth, twenty twenty four is the Beating
Speaker 1: the Book Podcast Megapod Week fourteen National Football League. It's
Speaker 1: Gil Alexander, thanks for joining us. As Todd Wishnev increases
Speaker 1: his lead after a three and zero performance last week
Speaker 1: on the megapod one and a half game lead. Dodd
Speaker 1: Wishnev from his mom's cork Attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania at
Speaker 1: t wish Nev on Twitter, star of the Showtime docuseriies
Speaker 1: action hasn't had a haircut, and I'm gonna guess two
Speaker 1: months now, what do you think? Two?
Speaker 3: Once over?
Speaker 4: No over?
Speaker 1: I'm over take the over on that? Okay over? Todd
Speaker 1: congratulates on the three and oh, well done, sir, well done,
Speaker 1: well done.
Speaker 2: Yes, you got to give the people what they want.
Speaker 1: This this guy, he talks when he's when he's not
Speaker 1: supposed to talk. He doesn't talk when he's supposed to talk.
Speaker 1: It's just incredible. Okay. Will Hill at not the Will
Speaker 1: Hill on Twitter host the should Have Bet More podcast,
Speaker 1: also part of Bear Bets at Chris Philka's podcast Empire
Speaker 1: at Fox Sports, and of course a staple on this show.
Speaker 1: How are you doing? Will Boys?
Speaker 2: What's going on?
Speaker 4: God to see everyone?
Speaker 1: I hate Todd, That's the first thing I want to
Speaker 1: get out. My man uh And then our rotating guest,
Speaker 1: an annual guest on this show. He is He doesn't
Speaker 1: like to be called a pioneer. He's one of the vanguards,
Speaker 1: one of the first to UH successfully as a business
Speaker 1: predict the outcome of sporting events through predictive modeling. It
Speaker 1: is my dear friend Bob Stole. You know him better
Speaker 1: as doctor Bob at d R bobsports dot com. Dr
Speaker 1: Bob It's on Twitter. I yout a Bob good.
Speaker 3: It's a pleasure to be honest. This is my this
Speaker 3: is my sort of off week in college football. There
Speaker 3: are not sixty games this week, so it's more more manageable,
Speaker 3: uh than any other week of the of the year.
Speaker 3: So it's it's it's good to be having a little
Speaker 3: bit of sleep this week.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was going to say this is a UH
Speaker 1: and now it gets Now you get to have more
Speaker 1: sleep with you know, with the uh with the playoff coming.
Speaker 1: There's still bowl games, right, we don't even talk about.
Speaker 3: Yeah we have the bowl games. Aren't sixty games in
Speaker 3: one week that I've got to dig into and you know,
Speaker 3: So it's it's it's spread out over a month, so
Speaker 3: it's more manageable than a regular week of college football,
Speaker 3: which is just very taxing, especially with college basketball overlapping.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm just I'm just thinking about that just from
Speaker 1: a broadcast perspective, like we I haven't even thought about
Speaker 1: bowl games usually, I'm like, oh, I got to do
Speaker 1: these massive bowl game podcasts. Haven't even thought about it.
Speaker 1: I wonder if that's because of the twelve team bracket.
Speaker 1: Now it's like it's a minimized Yeah, the ball.
Speaker 4: Games were the advertiser while you wait for the for
Speaker 4: the main entrec Now the main entree served earlier that's right.
Speaker 2: I still think it's going to be a huge matchup
Speaker 2: in the blue Bonnet Bowl this year. The blue Bonnet
Speaker 2: is really do they still have the blue Bonnet Bowl?
Speaker 2: I don't think they do.
Speaker 1: No, no, no, that was the best the blue Bonnet Bowl,
Speaker 1: blue Bonnet Bowl. All right, before we get to best
Speaker 1: bets and all of that, let's get through the uh,
Speaker 1: let's get through the court stenographer portion of the of
Speaker 1: the broadcast, Todd Wishnev records.
Speaker 2: Well, yes, last week was a quite an outstanding week
Speaker 2: for yours truly with a three and oh as you mentioned.
Speaker 2: But Willie and Gilly by both using Green Bay and Arizona,
Speaker 2: also had a nice week at two and one. That
Speaker 2: brings Gilly to twenty one seventeen and one, nothing to
Speaker 2: sniff at. He also won a teaser. How do you
Speaker 2: like that, Gilly winning a teaser going to three one
Speaker 2: on TV? Yeah? I thought you did one with the
Speaker 2: Bills in Denver? Did Denver end up winning the ball game?
Speaker 2: I both they did?
Speaker 1: I did, I did win it?
Speaker 2: Yeah, Jillie one. Will will the thrill Hill was really
Speaker 2: struggling early in the year, but he's made a comeback,
Speaker 2: I believe I said he's going to make a comeback,
Speaker 2: and he has. He's back to eighteen twenty and one
Speaker 2: and respectable five, six and two on his teasers. He
Speaker 2: also won with the Bills and the Falcons. I, as
Speaker 2: we said, went to twenty three and sixteen with my
Speaker 2: beautiful three and oh when the Buccaneers went to overtime
Speaker 2: to get me the over there, so and I lost
Speaker 2: my teaser. I'm six and seven on teasers, and the
Speaker 2: guests spot twenty twenty eighteen and one and also six
Speaker 2: and seven on the teaser, So the guest spot is
Speaker 2: slightly above. I am sure doctor Bob will continue to
Speaker 2: make the guest spot profitable.
Speaker 3: You know I've been doing this. I've been doing this
Speaker 3: Maga pod for what ten years? Nine years. I keep
Speaker 3: good records, Gill. I have never been worse than two
Speaker 3: and one.
Speaker 1: Never worse than two and one on the megapod, never.
Speaker 3: Worse two and one with a couple three and oh
Speaker 3: sprinkled in.
Speaker 1: I like that little self and self pressure.
Speaker 3: Myself.
Speaker 1: I know I was gonna say, but good for you
Speaker 1: for that's awesome two and one at the worst on
Speaker 1: this show. You also have a good numbers game record too,
Speaker 1: I am your lucky charm, Bob.
Speaker 3: You are indeed meeting you with a I can't say
Speaker 3: it's the best thing that ever happened in my in
Speaker 3: my life. In my case, my wife is listening. But
Speaker 3: we know it is.
Speaker 1: We know it, you and me. No, okay? Which okay?
Speaker 1: Which brings us to our Dumbo of the Week segment.
Speaker 1: And because Thanksgiving is included, is there any doubt? No,
Speaker 1: I know we can.
Speaker 2: But I'd like to also nominate somebody else. And and
Speaker 2: because obviously everyone's going to jump on the bear's or
Speaker 2: the ex coach, but I would just like to say
Speaker 2: that when they throw an interception, the game is not over.
Speaker 2: Elijah Moore and all the linemen on Cleveland and Jameis Winston.
Speaker 2: When you throw an interception and the defender is lying
Speaker 2: on the floor, the game, the play is not over.
Speaker 2: It's not college football. The play is not over. You
Speaker 2: must go over and touch the man in order to
Speaker 2: consider him down. But if you're Elijah Moore, no, you
Speaker 2: head straight for the refreshment to look for AWT talk.
Speaker 2: He's not even interested in trying to make a tackle.
Speaker 2: Neither is any of the linemen running over. And then
Speaker 2: this is what's most puzzling when they go for the
Speaker 2: back door touchdown late and Jamis throws another interception. All
Speaker 2: of a sudden, they're running the linebacker down for the
Speaker 2: when it's absolutely meaningless. So explain to me how that happens.
Speaker 2: I would like to elect all of the offensive players
Speaker 2: on the Browns as the asshole Dumbos of the week
Speaker 2: for not running and trying to touch down a guy
Speaker 2: laying on the floor.
Speaker 1: It's a very good choice. Elijah Moore, who uh it
Speaker 1: was Jamis's second pick six? What ended up being Jamis's
Speaker 1: second pick six, and it was the touchdown that put
Speaker 1: the Broncos in cover position. Where you're right, Elijah Moore
Speaker 1: was the intended receiver. This is the McMillan pick six
Speaker 1: where all he had to do was like take three
Speaker 1: steps back on the field and tag him down because McMillan,
Speaker 1: for like a pregnant pause, was like I'm fine down
Speaker 1: here on the ground, and then he was like, oh,
Speaker 1: I haven't been touched. And as Will pointed out too
Speaker 1: on a numbers game, it's like that replay also did
Speaker 1: not touch him on the way down, barely missed him.
Speaker 1: So he had to know that he had to go
Speaker 1: back and tag him. It's just such mount practice that
Speaker 1: that Jamis thing was the worst. If you had the Browns,
Speaker 1: he ended up killing you with a pick six to
Speaker 1: lose the first half. Bet pick six to lose the game.
Speaker 1: Bet every ind game bet you could have possibly had.
Speaker 1: It was just it was just a tour de force
Speaker 1: of Jamis wins tour to four. But Matt everfws who
Speaker 1: lost his I'm sorry, go ahead.
Speaker 3: I was gonna say. The the way to bet the
Speaker 3: Browns since Winston took over is the over, which I
Speaker 3: had as a player on that game. They're four and
Speaker 3: one over since Winston took over. Because Deshaun Watson was
Speaker 3: historically bad.
Speaker 1: Historically? How did he get that bad? By the way,
Speaker 1: is it just the shame?
Speaker 2: Oh?
Speaker 4: I think nine hundred days of not playing the position,
Speaker 4: you're just not getting the reps. It's you just if
Speaker 4: you don't use it, you lose it. And it's just
Speaker 4: you lose that instinct. I guess you lose just Hey,
Speaker 4: it's hard to simulate playing quarterback in the NFL against
Speaker 4: like live defenses if you're not doing it. I guess
Speaker 4: this is we don't really have any other comparisons of
Speaker 4: guys sitting out for three years or whatever it was
Speaker 4: set out for like three years.
Speaker 3: Well, Aaron Rodgers hasn't been himself either after sitting out
Speaker 3: a year change.
Speaker 1: So you know, it was the other RG three all
Speaker 1: of a sudden when he came back from his injuries,
Speaker 1: some mechanics just went out the window. Was another guy,
Speaker 1: you know, after a long, long time out Eberflews. The
Speaker 1: award the Dumbo of the Week should be named after
Speaker 1: Matt Ebberflus. After again, the uh Bears inexplicably did not
Speaker 1: call a timeout in the final sequence against the Allions
Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving. We don't need to go through the details
Speaker 1: other than I would say it's about eighty percent ever Flus,
Speaker 1: twenty percent of Caleb Williams. Because that dude's been playing
Speaker 1: football his life. He couldn't have called time out either.
Speaker 1: He calling a different play.
Speaker 2: And then at the end, at the end, he doesn't
Speaker 2: realize you cannot throw the football down the field long
Speaker 2: at that point, just spike the goddamn ball and get
Speaker 2: at least a field goal chance. No, he throws it
Speaker 2: long the whole play.
Speaker 3: Gus. Unbelievable.
Speaker 1: It's terrible, absolutely terrible, by the way, the Raiders spiking
Speaker 1: it with fifteen seconds left as opposed to letting you
Speaker 1: go down three seconds and spiking it because you knew
Speaker 1: they were going to invent a way to lose that
Speaker 1: game against the Chiefs.
Speaker 2: By the way, was that right standard Raiders? That's standard
Speaker 2: Raiders practice, That's not unusual.
Speaker 1: But by the way, was that the right? Was that
Speaker 1: officiated correctly? The end of that Raiders Chiefs game? Isn't
Speaker 1: that like a dead ball in some other games? I
Speaker 1: don't know.
Speaker 4: I was hosting vsin so I couldn't. I was just watching.
Speaker 4: I didn't have the sound, but usually when it's a
Speaker 4: false start, they blow it dead. But I would have
Speaker 4: to go back and watch it with the whistle. But
Speaker 4: I know a lot of people's see too, me too.
Speaker 1: Okay, then, Todd, before the Best Bets, anything in gamy
Speaker 1: that you wanted to.
Speaker 2: Share or Yeah, I just wanted to talk about one
Speaker 2: real quick thing, and that is getting off a bet
Speaker 2: that you don't like. So in the Bills game and
Speaker 2: late sometime in the second quarter, I think I took
Speaker 2: the over because I could see the snow was really
Speaker 2: kind of hindering the defense. If you noticed, you know,
Speaker 2: a cook got a handoff and ran eight million yards.
Speaker 2: They were just gashing them on the ground, and you
Speaker 2: could you could kind of see the defense wasn't as
Speaker 2: quick because they don't know where the offense is going.
Speaker 2: A lot of times people think snow is actually an under.
Speaker 2: It's really wind is an under, and snow can sometimes
Speaker 2: actually be an over. So I took over forty six
Speaker 2: and a half. And then of course Juice Deck fumbles
Speaker 2: on the first drive the third quarter at the two
Speaker 2: yard line, like, all right, I'm in trouble now. But
Speaker 2: we go to the mid to late about ten to nine,
Speaker 2: ten minutes left in the in the fourth quarter, it's
Speaker 2: thirty five to ten, and the Bills had already brought
Speaker 2: in Trubisky. And at that point, I have over forty
Speaker 2: six and a half and we're at forty five, and
Speaker 2: I could get off on forty seven and a half
Speaker 2: and just pay the viig And I said, I've seen this,
Speaker 2: I've seen this show before. I've seen Trubisky in the game.
Speaker 2: At the end of the game, they're just going to
Speaker 2: run the game. You know, this game is over. So
Speaker 2: I jumped off it at like minus one ten, So
Speaker 2: I ended up paying viig of you know, one ten
Speaker 2: and got off what would have been a sure loser
Speaker 2: at that point because you know, the snow had started
Speaker 2: to got worse, and it wasn't like the Niners were
Speaker 2: doing anything at that point either. So you know, sometimes
Speaker 2: you make a good in gameplay to get off something.
Speaker 2: You know, even if you have to just pay the viig,
Speaker 2: it can be worth it, and in that case it was.
Speaker 1: I love that. Here's my question to you, how give
Speaker 1: me the percentage of give me the percentage of times
Speaker 1: you think to do that and you actually do that. Well,
Speaker 1: I'm getting better at it at right.
Speaker 2: I used to actually just hang in with my bet
Speaker 2: and root for my bet to win, and now I'm
Speaker 2: much better at saying, you know what, I'm cutting bait
Speaker 2: with this. I don't love it anymore. If I can
Speaker 2: get out with a possible slight middle chance or get
Speaker 2: out with a big chance. For instance, the Packer the
Speaker 2: game where the Bears lost by one, I believe to
Speaker 2: the Packers, I had an opportunity to have time to
Speaker 2: get the Bears plus one and a half to go
Speaker 2: with my Packer's money line, which is a really small
Speaker 2: middle one and a half the money line. The only
Speaker 2: way you can middle is if it lands on one. Well,
Speaker 2: of course it did land on one when they missed
Speaker 2: the field goal at the end of that game. But
Speaker 2: that was a perfect example where I didn't like how
Speaker 2: it was going. They were giving me one and a
Speaker 2: half points to get out of this. I'm getting out.
Speaker 2: There's always other opportunities.
Speaker 1: I have you.
Speaker 4: Tampa Bay Carolina. Tampa is down three with thirty seconds left.
Speaker 4: They have all their timeouts. Carolina just scored a touchdown.
Speaker 4: Some books had them plus five hundred. They have plenty
Speaker 4: of time to get in a field goal range. Their
Speaker 4: favorite to the game to start like these teams always
Speaker 4: getting a field goal range. You have all four downs
Speaker 4: to work with, you have all three timeouts. That number
Speaker 4: should not be plus five hundred. So you know, sometimes
Speaker 4: I think people when there's thirty seconds in the game,
Speaker 4: they just kind of ignore the game from a live
Speaker 4: betting standpoint. Those there's some meat.
Speaker 3: On the bone with those, I think, and we were
Speaker 3: we know that we.
Speaker 1: Know that Will did it because he texted it when
Speaker 1: he did it. What percentage of books do you think
Speaker 1: are up with that price at that moment?
Speaker 4: Most of them to draftings have it, Yeah, FANDOL and
Speaker 4: DraftKings have it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, seeing EVA, we're screwed. Really yeah, we don't have
Speaker 1: those books. Yeah, because here I'm like, first of all,
Speaker 1: I'm not on them to know necessarily what the percentage is.
Speaker 1: But it strikes me that it's not as like bookmaker
Speaker 1: for instance, you know offshore Pillar oftentimes punts on that
Speaker 1: kind of stuff. They don't have that available.
Speaker 2: I forget which you got one with plus one forty
Speaker 2: seven going to overtime. I forget what it was, but you.
Speaker 1: College college basketball. It was Michigan State North Carolina, and
Speaker 1: it was just like, it's just one of those things
Speaker 1: where it's like, should either of these two teams be
Speaker 1: plus one forty seven heading in overtime? I'm not sure.
Speaker 1: I wouldn't have made the benefit was on the other
Speaker 1: side also, right, So those those are good ones. Are
Speaker 1: those opportunities exist? Bob? My question to you on all
Speaker 1: that is, you have no time to do any of that, right,
Speaker 1: I'm guessing I have never made.
Speaker 3: Any game bet in my life. Wow, when the games
Speaker 3: are being played, that's the only time I have off
Speaker 3: I knew that was the day back in my single
Speaker 3: days in San Francisco. I was on dates hopefully, and
Speaker 3: since I've been married, that's the time I spent with
Speaker 3: my family. So yeah, I just don't bother. Usually I
Speaker 3: don't even watch the games. I just I'm doing. It's
Speaker 3: my only time off is when the game's being.
Speaker 1: Oh but Bob, we were so young, so young. Oh, yes,
Speaker 1: back in the day. Okay, best bets, but let's start
Speaker 1: with Thursday night football. Does anybody have a thought or
Speaker 1: one of their best bets on Thursday Night football tonight
Speaker 1: between the Packers and the Lions, which is a good
Speaker 1: game on paper, Lions favored by three and a half
Speaker 1: and as great as the Lions have been eleven and one,
Speaker 1: they have Minnesota game behind them. In the NFC North,
Speaker 1: they have Green Bay two games behind them, and then
Speaker 1: for the number one seed, they only have the Eagles
Speaker 1: one game behind. So it's not like Detroit is out
Speaker 1: of the woods on anything yet. They haven't clinched or
Speaker 1: accomplished anything quite yet. Any play on tonight's game from
Speaker 1: many of us, I like the over.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna use that as one of my picks. Oh.
Speaker 2: I almost did the same thing, Willie, but I'm not
Speaker 2: gonna do go ahead.
Speaker 4: Both these teams are top four in league yards per play.
Speaker 4: Your indoors weather's not going to be an issue. I
Speaker 4: think you can throw out the game. Last time they
Speaker 4: played a month or so ago, where Love was banged up,
Speaker 4: probably shouldn't have been out there. It was rainy. Lions
Speaker 4: got a big lead and just took the air.
Speaker 3: Out of the ball.
Speaker 4: Detroit is all kind of beat up on defense. Both
Speaker 4: good offenses. To me, Detroit's gonna get there, you know,
Speaker 4: twenty seven points against pretty much anyone. I think this
Speaker 4: is uh, you know, thirty to twenty seven type of game.
Speaker 1: I like the overhear. I am going to go opo.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go under.
Speaker 2: The numbers fifty and a half correct, the.
Speaker 1: Number is fifty one and a half.
Speaker 3: Yes, one and a half and a half.
Speaker 1: If you want to, if you one and a half,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go under. Lions go Man forty three percent
Speaker 1: of the time. Jordan Love thirty eighth in quarterback rating,
Speaker 1: thirty ninth against Man. Love against the blitz and by
Speaker 1: the way, Detroit has gotten better on the blitz since
Speaker 1: Aiden Hutchinson high not better, but they they blitz at
Speaker 1: a higher rate fifth highest rate the second highest rate
Speaker 1: since Hutchinson has been down. Jordan Love almost goes from
Speaker 1: first to worst EPA per drop back against four fewer
Speaker 1: rushers he's best in the league. Where they bring five,
Speaker 1: he goes to thirty third out of thirty four. That's amazing.
Speaker 1: And then also the fact that Zarius Smith seventeen pressures
Speaker 1: in Hutchinson's absence, has been really good. You're right about
Speaker 1: Alex Azeloni being out, Jack Campbell, Malcolm Rodriguez have kind
Speaker 1: of stepped up, so I don't like. And then Josh Jacobs,
Speaker 1: you know, gonna try. They're going to establish their run.
Speaker 1: They're going to try to with Josh Jacobs. They can try.
Speaker 1: Detroit's Diaz ranked fourth, but Green Bay is going to
Speaker 1: try given those Jordan Love stats, I think. And then
Speaker 1: on the other side, Packer's good against the run two
Speaker 1: twelfth and DVOA. I don't think they can stop the
Speaker 1: Detroit running game, but they can certainly contain it, and
Speaker 1: then that will allow them to blitz more. I just
Speaker 1: think fifty one and a half is a lot, and
Speaker 1: I think the instinct is to go over. But for
Speaker 1: some reason, by the way, when they played each other
Speaker 1: earlier in the year, I think they got to thirty eight.
Speaker 2: If I'm not mistaken, that's not a fair game because
Speaker 2: it was disgusting whether and it was raining and pouring
Speaker 2: and disgusting.
Speaker 1: Well again, if you had just let me finish my thought,
Speaker 1: I said, I get it, it was outdoors. But you know
Speaker 1: you could interrupt and make it sound like an idiot.
Speaker 2: I get it anyway.
Speaker 1: Anyway, I'm going under under fifty one and a half
Speaker 1: very much. I'm gonna start interrupting you right before the comma.
Speaker 1: Also see how that goes. Problem. You know, I love
Speaker 1: the Jews, except right like that kind of thing. By
Speaker 1: the way, we got to complain someone was upset that
Speaker 1: we were talking about religion last Oh great, that kind
Speaker 1: of show. Okay, So I am on the UNDERWELLA is
Speaker 1: on the over. As one of our best bets, Bob,
Speaker 1: we go to you, sir for your first best bet.
Speaker 3: Oh goodness, I'm gonna go with the Raiders. They have
Speaker 3: not given up. They keep playing hard. I think they
Speaker 3: have a good matchup against Tampa's defense, and O'Connell's been
Speaker 3: better against the blitz compared to a standard rush. Buccaneers
Speaker 3: s blitz the second highest rate in the league. Brock
Speaker 3: Bowers has been great as a rookie tight end. He
Speaker 3: should have a huge game. I mean, he's third among
Speaker 3: tight ends in yards per route run this year. Tampa
Speaker 3: Bay's defense ranks thirty first out of thirty two teams
Speaker 3: and expected points added per target against opposing tight ends.
Speaker 3: They're also with out there starting safety Whitehead and the
Speaker 3: backups out, so Bowers should feast in this game. So
Speaker 3: I do like the Raiders offensive matchup here. Godwin's out
Speaker 3: for Tampa Bay. He's having a good season, and Mayfield
Speaker 3: relatively struggles against man coverage. Compared to z Own. The
Speaker 3: Raiders are fourth highest rate in the league using man coverage,
Speaker 3: So you know, and like I said, the Raiders have
Speaker 3: not given up, and they've lost eight games in a row.
Speaker 3: But teams that have lost seven or more consecutive games
Speaker 3: are fifty five, twenty nine and one against the spread
Speaker 3: when facing opponent off a win. So people tend to
Speaker 3: give up on these teams, but historically they're good bets.
Speaker 3: When you've lost that many games in a row, you
Speaker 3: think they might give up, but they don't. And the
Speaker 3: trend is that those type of teams tend to cover
Speaker 3: on the road. Against teams off a win, and the
Speaker 3: model has the Buccaneers by only five, so I released
Speaker 3: it to clients a plus seven. It's down to six
Speaker 3: and a half, and I still like the Raiders plus
Speaker 3: six and a half.
Speaker 1: And that makes sense intuitively because the market probably over adjusts, right, Yeah,
Speaker 1: given that situation and Antonio Pierce factor, where he will
Speaker 1: do whatever he can to cover the spread.
Speaker 2: If he's down nine, he will be kicking field goal
Speaker 2: on fourth down as opposed. You know he's already done
Speaker 2: that twice this year to get inside the number. It's
Speaker 2: my turn, right, Gilly.
Speaker 1: Yes it is.
Speaker 2: I'm going to that same game. I considered the Raiders
Speaker 2: and they still may be one of my picks, but
Speaker 2: I actually want to take the over here. What do
Speaker 2: you guys have for the over? I have six and
Speaker 2: a half. By the way, we were giving Bob six
Speaker 2: and a half on the on the raid. Is that correct?
Speaker 1: Yeah? That's correct?
Speaker 2: Yeah? And then what do you have for the total here?
Speaker 4: Mostly forty forty.
Speaker 1: Half?
Speaker 3: Fish, Yeah, that's mostly forty six.
Speaker 1: Okay, forty six, says Bob the.
Speaker 3: Six and a half, but it's juice down.
Speaker 2: I'm going over forty six in the Raiders Carolina. I've
Speaker 2: been saying this all year. Typically, there's always like a
Speaker 2: team in the NFL that's just an over machine because
Speaker 2: they can move the ball and they cannot stop anyone
Speaker 2: trying to move the ball. Tampa Bay, to me, is
Speaker 2: that team. They can move it pretty much against everyone.
Speaker 2: They don't like stopping people. Carolina is a perfect example.
Speaker 2: Went up and down the field against them last week.
Speaker 2: I felt very fortunate to win my Tampa Bay plus
Speaker 2: two and a half in game. Bet you know, they
Speaker 2: weren't doing much on defense, and they don't do much
Speaker 2: on defense in most of the games. If you look
Speaker 2: at most of the games, people move the ball on
Speaker 2: Tampa all day long. I was a little worried about
Speaker 2: the Raiders because you know, you got eight and O'Connell.
Speaker 2: But I just think Tampa Bay's so bad on defense,
Speaker 2: They're going to move the ball. And I know Tampa's
Speaker 2: gonna get me my points too. So I'm going to
Speaker 2: go over forty six in the Raider Tampa game.
Speaker 3: By the way, Todd, that team is Cincinnati, but Tampa's
Speaker 3: maybe second or.
Speaker 2: Third, right, it's Nati fair. That's fair to Cincinnati is
Speaker 2: another one that I would also call it a dead over.
Speaker 2: Sometimes there's more than one. But by the way, all
Speaker 2: the time, the all time best team of all is
Speaker 2: very apt. And because Jeff Parls texted me this on
Speaker 2: the Jamis Game twenty nineteen, we sat at the South
Speaker 2: Point every week, and every week they would bet the
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers under, and I would come on your
Speaker 2: AMG show and say, Tampa Bay Buccaneers over. I think
Speaker 2: they went something like fourteen and two to the over
Speaker 2: because not only would they the ball and not stop anyone,
Speaker 2: Jamis usually would sprinkle in a couple pick sixes every
Speaker 2: couple weeks, so it was just an unbelievable overteam. But
Speaker 2: of course I do agree with you obviously, Bob, that
Speaker 2: Bengals are another one of those crazy teams Jamis.
Speaker 1: By the way, the other night, the opt stats had
Speaker 1: this stat his yards passing four ninety seven and then
Speaker 1: the yardage on their interceptions that he threw one hundred
Speaker 1: and seventy one or something like that. If you add
Speaker 1: those two together, there has never been a game in
Speaker 1: the history of the NFL where are a quarterback provided
Speaker 1: that many yards in either direction, you're supposed to subtract
Speaker 1: that interception yards from it, but they did the addition, Willie.
Speaker 4: If we could never talk about that Jamis Winston Broncos
Speaker 4: game ever again, that would be just great. I'm going
Speaker 4: to go, what do we have? Eagles Panthers twelve and
Speaker 4: a half thirteen?
Speaker 2: What's I'm gonna lay it with Philly.
Speaker 3: I think this is.
Speaker 4: What are we going with? I will lay it with
Speaker 4: Philly regardless you guys tell me the number.
Speaker 1: I think.
Speaker 4: I think they're going to perfect. This is the mismatch
Speaker 4: of all mismatches. Carolina last week gave up two hundred
Speaker 4: and thirty six yards rushing to Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay
Speaker 4: running backs average six and a half yards per carry.
Speaker 4: Philly is going to be able to win this game
Speaker 4: without even throwing a forward pass. Philly's ground game is
Speaker 4: just going to mall them. In terms of betting, I
Speaker 4: probably just prefer a Philly team total over I think
Speaker 4: if they're interested, they can basically score every time they
Speaker 4: touch the ball. I know Young has been better, but
Speaker 4: now you're going to Philly, hostile environment, outdoors. I still
Speaker 4: think there are some limitations. Fanjo is a good defensive coordinator,
Speaker 4: so to me, this game has you know, thirty eight
Speaker 4: thirteen written all over. I think the Eagles role here.
Speaker 1: I love how everybody's.
Speaker 2: The weather's supposed to be decent in Philadelphia. I looked
Speaker 2: at that. What are we giving him? Ghilly on the
Speaker 2: number twelve and a half or thirteen twelve? But I
Speaker 2: think consensus is twelve and a half? Okay, twelve and
Speaker 2: a half, he said, look up.
Speaker 1: Screen, Ryce Young, four great games if the if the
Speaker 1: magic carpet ride continues here for Bryce my turn, I
Speaker 1: am taking the Los Angeles Rams plus the points against
Speaker 1: the Buffalo billiards am I getting five or four and
Speaker 1: a half? What am I getting.
Speaker 3: Three and a half?
Speaker 1: Okay? Well, I made the bet. I made the bet
Speaker 1: earlier in the week where I uh, I got the
Speaker 1: Rams plus five and I sprinkled on the money line
Speaker 1: as well three and a half. I'll still take it
Speaker 1: as long as there's a hook. I think the Rams
Speaker 1: match up particularly well with the Bills in terms of
Speaker 1: the Bills defense. The Bill's the whole defense is they
Speaker 1: let you run the football, and they've been this way
Speaker 1: for a few years now, where they let you run
Speaker 1: the football, and the whole thing is either get ahead,
Speaker 1: which squelches that strategy, or you make a mistake, because
Speaker 1: if you have to matriculate the ball down the field,
Speaker 1: you're more likely to make a mistake if you're doing
Speaker 1: long drives, Rams running game with Kien Williams and Blake Orum.
Speaker 1: I think Sean McVay coaches it up. I think he
Speaker 1: knows this about the Bills. I think the Rams, who
Speaker 1: Will has said very accurately on this show, what are they?
Speaker 1: I have no idea what the Rams are from week
Speaker 1: to week, but this week, I think I know what
Speaker 1: they are. You're giving me those points, I will take them.
Speaker 1: And I do think the Bills are due for a
Speaker 1: game where one dude shouldn't be able to beat you, right,
Speaker 1: And I think the Rams sort of spry defense with
Speaker 1: both Jared Verse and who's his FSU teammate Brayden what
Speaker 1: fsc fifth? I think they actually played Josh Allen. Well,
Speaker 1: I'll take the Rams plus the points. I already gave
Speaker 1: it first, so I guess I don't do my third here, right,
Speaker 1: we go back to Will.
Speaker 2: No, let's go no, Will's had two. Let's go to
Speaker 2: Bob for his second.
Speaker 3: Oh, okayle on that Gil, I'm the one who moved
Speaker 3: the Rams from four to three and a half this morning,
Speaker 3: my man. I still like the Rams at three and
Speaker 3: a half. Rams. Last year, you might remember they had
Speaker 3: a bunch of offensive line issues early in the season.
Speaker 3: Then they had their bye week and they were healthy
Speaker 3: on the offensive line down the stretch and averaged twenty
Speaker 3: nine points a game and then made a run towards
Speaker 3: the playoffs. Well, this year, same thing, offensive line issues.
Speaker 3: Rob Havnstein made his first start of the year last week.
Speaker 3: They are finally healthy on the offensive line for the
Speaker 3: first time all year, and I think with Stafford being
Speaker 3: protected better that the Rams offense is going to start
Speaker 3: to cook just like they did last year. Like you
Speaker 3: mentioned the run defense for the Bills, four point nine
Speaker 3: yards per rush they allow. Rams are fourth in the
Speaker 3: league and rushing success rate on offense, so they're going
Speaker 3: to probably utilize the run game, which also slowed down
Speaker 3: the pass rush and give Stafford more time to throw.
Speaker 3: I think Allen's going to face some pressure. You mentioned
Speaker 3: that a little bit. The defensive ends for the Rams
Speaker 3: are very good. They pressure a lot fourth best pressure
Speaker 3: rate in the league, so I think Alan's going to
Speaker 3: face some pressure. And you also mentioned they're due for something,
Speaker 3: and I have a stat as I usually do, teams
Speaker 3: that score ninety five points or more over a three
Speaker 3: game span are are generally bad against the spread the
Speaker 3: next week, and the Bills apply to an eighty six, one,
Speaker 3: sixty four and seven situations based on that premise. So
Speaker 3: there is a little bit of a letdown here for
Speaker 3: the Bills going on the road after scoring ninety five
Speaker 3: plus over the last three weeks. And my model only
Speaker 3: favors the Bills by half a point, So I think
Speaker 3: there's line value. I think the matchups are decent, and
Speaker 3: I like the Rams at plus three and a half
Speaker 3: or more.
Speaker 1: I love it again. I made that bet early in
Speaker 1: the week, and then Bob did it this morning. I'm
Speaker 1: looking at the phone right now. I love it all right,
Speaker 1: we're aligned on that. We're fine unless a third person
Speaker 1: takes the Rams, then we're all screwed. We know the rules, right, will.
Speaker 2: Although we did all hit, we did all hit that
Speaker 2: last week with three of US Rizona. Yeah, Arizona plus
Speaker 2: the three and a half. We all had that, and
Speaker 2: you guys both were on Green Bay and both hit.
Speaker 1: And the week deal was out.
Speaker 4: We all had Arizona and that and that one hit,
Speaker 4: so we're, uh, we're breaking up these uh these narratives
Speaker 4: are true of Arizona. I will go Arizona Seattle under flowdowns.
Speaker 2: So you had two picks, Gill had two picks, Bob
Speaker 2: had two picks. Maybe I should also get to do
Speaker 2: two picks, Willie? Or would you just like that?
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's fine, I guess I suppose.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Okay, sure, Okay, well, I appreciate that. I'm gonna
Speaker 2: go with what do you guys have for the total
Speaker 2: in the Kansas City Charger game?
Speaker 1: Charges forty three?
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, forty three. Okay, I'm gonna go under forty
Speaker 2: three in the k C Charger game. I was listening
Speaker 2: to Adam Churnoff, frequent guest on a n G and
Speaker 2: the megapod, and he was talking about how Lad McConkie,
Speaker 2: when they throw to Ladd McConkie, they're like a top
Speaker 2: five throwing team. When they throw to anyone else, they're
Speaker 2: like a bottom five throwing team. And you don't really
Speaker 2: need the stats to tell you that. You just look
Speaker 2: at who the San Diego Chargers have or the LA
Speaker 2: Chargers have throwing the ball to. They don't have a
Speaker 2: lot of weapons even Ladd mcclucky if he's your last.
Speaker 1: Week, sorry, last week, Herbert threw for one hundred and
Speaker 1: forty seven yards one seventeen to McConkie.
Speaker 5: Right, and Lad doesn't exactly and he's a little bit
Speaker 5: supposed that he may not. He's not made sure out.
Speaker 2: Okay, he's not for sure out. Granted, even if he's
Speaker 2: half out, that's fun. All I'm saying.
Speaker 3: I think limited, Yes, I think he's limited if he plays.
Speaker 2: Okay. My point is, if Ladd McConkie's your top guy
Speaker 2: who you're throwing the ball to, I think you have
Speaker 2: a problem throwing the football to people. Because Lad McConkie
Speaker 2: doesn't strike me as a number one wide receiver in
Speaker 2: the National Football League. Maybe he's a very good.
Speaker 1: Why doesn't he strike you as that?
Speaker 2: It has nothing to do with what you're trying to in.
Speaker 2: I know what you're trying to do, Gilly. I've seen
Speaker 2: this show. I'm just saying he seems to me be
Speaker 2: as a Charlie Joyner type. He's not more of your
Speaker 2: like West Chandler or John Jefferson type for the Chargers. Okay,
Speaker 2: he's more of a possession receiver. I don't see them
Speaker 2: as Okay, whatever, the point is, they don't really have
Speaker 2: a lot of guys to throw to. That's the bottom line. Okay,
Speaker 2: they just don't. They're not an explosive offense in my mind.
Speaker 2: So you got Kansas City with a very good defense.
Speaker 2: I think they're gonna hold him down. I don't see
Speaker 2: why they can't. Even against Atlanta, which is not a
Speaker 2: good defensive football team, Chargers struggle to move the ball.
Speaker 2: The Chargers are not a great offensive. They're winning because
Speaker 2: they're running and they're playing defense. They're doing old school
Speaker 2: harball methods for getting to the winner circle. And you
Speaker 2: know what, I love it. I tip my hat to them.
Speaker 2: Fantastic job. They're just not a juggernaut offensive team, and
Speaker 2: I think that they're gonna have a hard time move
Speaker 2: to the ball. Kansas City, it's a division game. Los
Speaker 2: Angeles is good on defense. It's a division game. Give
Speaker 2: me under forty three. You're gonna grind it. It's gonna
Speaker 2: be a ground and pound. Give me under forty three.
Speaker 2: Regardless of whether lad McConkey is gonna play, regardless of
Speaker 2: whether he's a good receiver, and regardless of whether he
Speaker 2: may be white or black, thank you, Gilly, Thank to I.
Speaker 1: I just say that, Wow, wow, he.
Speaker 3: Have just ten yards of target. That's that's pretty good.
Speaker 4: Yeah, he is really had.
Speaker 2: I didn't say he wasn't good.
Speaker 3: I just the average couple yards of target in college.
Speaker 3: I mean, he's always been good.
Speaker 1: I can't believe geez, I believe it. Bob is Bob
Speaker 1: gets DIBs on three. Right, we all start with our
Speaker 1: third here, start with Bob.
Speaker 3: I love me. I'm gonna go with the Jaguars because
Speaker 3: who wants the Jaguars?
Speaker 1: Oh? I did? Wow.
Speaker 3: Jones has not been good and he's probably I docked
Speaker 3: them three and a half points for Jones versus Trevor Lawrence.
Speaker 3: We know Jones can play better, but I'm assuming that
Speaker 3: he'll play to the level he's played since the start
Speaker 3: of last year, which is which is not good. But
Speaker 3: we know he can play better. He actually played a
Speaker 3: little bit better coming off the bench last week. I
Speaker 3: started to a little bit of a rapport with Brian Thomas,
Speaker 3: and Thomas has been good despite the bad quarterbacking for US.
Speaker 2: Here.
Speaker 3: He's fourteenth among wide receivers in yards per route run.
Speaker 3: Got a good matchup in this game against a rookie
Speaker 3: cornerback Jarvis Brownlee's seventh worst than the league and yards
Speaker 3: per cover snap loud, So I think Brian Thomas is
Speaker 3: going to have a nice game. Titans are missing not
Speaker 3: only three starting corners, like both outside corners and their
Speaker 3: nickel back, but they're starting safety digs Is out too,
Speaker 3: so the secondary is depleted. So I think Jones, who
Speaker 3: has proven he can be decent. I'm not expecting it,
Speaker 3: but he can be better than I think he's going
Speaker 3: to be. And I think he's got a good matchup
Speaker 3: with Brian Thomas, a go to receiver that should be
Speaker 3: open most of the game. On the other side of
Speaker 3: the ball, you've got josh Heinz Allen with forty eight
Speaker 3: pressures this season, top ten in the league. He'll be
Speaker 3: up against a left tackle JC Latham who's seventh worst
Speaker 3: in pass blocking efficiency, so I think heines Allen's going
Speaker 3: to be in the backfield most of the game and
Speaker 3: Will Levis's face, and Levis is prone to making mistakes,
Speaker 3: probably an understatement. I's thirty fifth out of thirty fourth
Speaker 3: out of thirty five qualifying quarterbacks and interception rate. He
Speaker 3: should throw at least one pick you'd think so. I
Speaker 3: like the matchups, think Tennessee's defense is in trouble, just
Speaker 3: so many injuries in the secondary, and I favor the
Speaker 3: Titans by just one point. So I'm taking three and
Speaker 3: a half With Mitch Jacksonville.
Speaker 1: We we call Will Levis ill advised Billy Levi's that's
Speaker 1: his nickname, and we talked about it on the radio.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, what is.
Speaker 2: The number there? What is the consensus number there? In
Speaker 2: the Jaguar game.
Speaker 1: Is three and a half. I believe I'm seeing as
Speaker 1: many threes as three and a halfs.
Speaker 3: You kill me, that's crazy. Well it's three. It's three
Speaker 3: Jews at Draft Kings, but everywhere else is three and
Speaker 3: a half, three and a half, CIRCA three and a half,
Speaker 3: MGM three and a half, west Gate three and a half,
Speaker 3: three and a half, US three.
Speaker 2: And a half.
Speaker 1: One outraged by my comment half at the show and
Speaker 1: a half? By the way, was that bet on the
Speaker 1: jaguires of the Jaguars, Bob, we have to be jack Wars,
Speaker 1: we said on the Morning Wires.
Speaker 3: That's why I picked that up.
Speaker 1: He does call him man oh man.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Jaguiars jag wires.
Speaker 1: Uh, we said on the radio side this morning. How
Speaker 1: much would would you have to be paid if you
Speaker 1: did not have a wager on this game Titans Jaguars.
Speaker 1: How much would you require to watch that game from
Speaker 1: beginning to end without a bet on it and no
Speaker 1: phone for distraction? You must watch the football game? Kelly said,
Speaker 1: three hundred dollars.
Speaker 3: I was like, no, can I get a nap in?
Speaker 1: Can you get what?
Speaker 3: Wait?
Speaker 2: Can I get a nap?
Speaker 1: Have to be away. You have to be conscious, conscious
Speaker 1: watching the whole thing. Then someone chimed in was like,
Speaker 1: what about attending the game? Same rules? Oh brutal? Oh
Speaker 1: uh toddy number three sir.
Speaker 2: By the way, it's funny because as soon as Mac
Speaker 2: Jones went in the game, I bet team total under
Speaker 2: thirteen and a half for the Jaguars, and of course
Speaker 2: I went to the second half with ten and a
Speaker 2: half to give. They only had three at the half,
Speaker 2: and I thought, oh, I'm fine. And then of course
Speaker 2: he gets one back door touchdown to get the thirteen
Speaker 2: and I think, okay, I'm gonna still be all right.
Speaker 2: That was on a fourth and eight when the cornerback
Speaker 2: fell down. Then they get another back door touched. I'm
Speaker 2: like Mac Jones all of a sudden you woke up
Speaker 2: when I bet the under, and it's like so aggravating.
Speaker 2: But anyways, you know he was I have to admit
Speaker 2: he was better in the last quarter and a half
Speaker 2: of that game for my third pick. I mean, it
Speaker 2: is just it is tough pickings here this week. I
Speaker 2: will say that. I mean, it just feels it just
Speaker 2: feels like pulling teeth on some of these plays. To
Speaker 2: be honest, Uh, I guess I'm gonna go Donnie in's
Speaker 2: your ton. I'm going Donny in your ton? That's right.
Speaker 2: I think maybe em storers might put a little whooping
Speaker 2: ass like they did last week on Old Gilly's pick.
Speaker 2: And look, all I can say is Akrosure Parking is
Speaker 2: gonna be expensive. You know that's got a favorite of storers.
Speaker 2: I'm not sure why, but you gotta think it. Give
Speaker 2: me the stillers. I feel like Thursday Night Football in
Speaker 2: the snow, they stole one from us, and now the
Speaker 2: seven just seems like a gigantic number, a gigantic number.
Speaker 2: But you know what, maybe we're really good. Maybe the
Speaker 2: stores are really good, and we've seen the Jamis show.
Speaker 2: Now maybe we get in on the pick six action.
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna go dinner, and I'm gonna pick the
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh Steelers in that. I'm gonna go down to the Rivers,
Speaker 2: gonna get the free park eighty. I'm not gonna pay
Speaker 2: a hundred, I'm gonna pay zero, and I'm gonna get
Speaker 2: my good seats to watching the sports book Downer stores
Speaker 2: minus What is it seven or six and a half?
Speaker 2: You guys gonna be chinsey with me?
Speaker 3: I think it's six and a half. Juiced up.
Speaker 2: Bo upset it. I'll take the six and a half
Speaker 2: for a Stiller win twenty eight twenty one. Stiller's minus
Speaker 2: six and a half.
Speaker 1: Are we sure that's more six and a half than
Speaker 1: seven and.
Speaker 3: fIF I'm looking at the Don Best screen. The consensus
Speaker 3: is six and a half. Looks like more six and
Speaker 3: a half?
Speaker 1: Okay, Bob wins again? I mean it is?
Speaker 3: Where's where's the seven circa?
Speaker 1: I'm not done.
Speaker 3: People can't get a pinnacle. I only see Circa and
Speaker 3: Pinnacle at seven and.
Speaker 1: Those are those are exactly I am looking.
Speaker 2: He's upset because the Bengals. He took the Bengals down
Speaker 2: their minus two and a half. He thought he was
Speaker 2: gonna get over on a Mike Toman and that it
Speaker 2: didn't happen.
Speaker 1: Bookmaker and Pinnacle or the two that had seventh exact.
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, Bookmaker, Yeah, that's it.
Speaker 1: Rester six and a half, Juice, Yeah, Rester six and
Speaker 1: a half, right, Willie your last one.
Speaker 2: Mane all right?
Speaker 4: Seattle Arizona under forty four and a half. We talked
Speaker 4: about Arizona. The front part of their schedule was heavy
Speaker 4: with good offenses, so that hurt their stats defensively. I
Speaker 4: think both these defenses are a little bit underrated. You have
Speaker 4: two defensive head coaches, and these teams played three weeks
Speaker 4: ago and it was sixteen to six, and that was
Speaker 4: with a defensive touchdown. Seattle played the Jets last week
Speaker 4: and that game went over, but that was completely misleading.
Speaker 4: You had a lot of fluky points in terms of
Speaker 4: defense and special team. So to me, it's just going
Speaker 4: to be hard to get to forty four and a half.
Speaker 4: Here I look like a twenty to seventeen type of game.
Speaker 4: So Arizona Seattle under. As you guys mentioned, there's not
Speaker 4: a lot man a lot of ugly games. When we
Speaker 4: get to the question what game do you want? No
Speaker 4: part of I got like five or six good answers.
Speaker 4: It's just it's hard to find good side this week.
Speaker 4: But I will go Arizona Seattle under forty four and
Speaker 4: a half.
Speaker 1: My last one. I've only made two bets this week.
Speaker 2: Before you do your last one, Gilly, can we just
Speaker 2: talk about how the Arizona Cardinals defense went from a
Speaker 2: disastrous display in the first couple of weeks to now
Speaker 2: it's like a good defense and maybe what doctor Bob
Speaker 2: and you guys would think about that whole thing.
Speaker 4: Bob, you go from up three to up six, you're
Speaker 4: asking for trouble. And that's what Arizona did last week
Speaker 4: against Minnesota.
Speaker 1: Yeah, did you not like that in the moment when
Speaker 1: they went when they kicked the field goal to go
Speaker 1: up six.
Speaker 4: I'm a Vikings fan. I was praying for them to
Speaker 4: kick the.
Speaker 1: Field goal and they did. That's the truth serum right there. Yeah,
Speaker 1: the Aaron Shotts to answer your question from Aaron shots standpoint,
Speaker 1: our buddy Aaron from last week? Was it last week
Speaker 1: or two weeks ago? Last week? Yeah? He has the
Speaker 1: Cardinals the seventh ranked team in all of football through
Speaker 1: DVOA seventh. Uh he thinks and and by the way,
Speaker 1: I have bet on a team I have bet. I
Speaker 1: have not bet on a team more frequently than I
Speaker 1: have the Cardinals and to great success. And that is
Speaker 1: my third pick. I'm on the Cardinals minus two and
Speaker 1: a half. That was the other bet I made this week.
Speaker 1: The books respected my bet so much they kept at
Speaker 1: it two and a half. It's still there two and
Speaker 1: a half across the board. I like the Cardinals here.
Speaker 1: By the way, this is a kind of do or
Speaker 1: die game for the Cardinal. If they lose this, they
Speaker 1: are two games behind the Seahawks lust the tie breaker
Speaker 1: because they will have they will have been swept by
Speaker 1: the Seahawks. So it is the proverbial must win situation.
Speaker 1: Doctor Bob, by the way, with the famous must win line,
Speaker 1: he doesn't like what the way I translated, but he
Speaker 1: his famous must win line should be stated. If they're
Speaker 1: in a must win situation, they yeah, it must not.
Speaker 3: If you're in a must if you're if you're in
Speaker 3: a must win situation, you're not good enough to win
Speaker 3: when you're when you want to win, so right, you know,
Speaker 3: I don't know people, Oh they're in a must win. Well,
Speaker 3: if they were good enough to win whenever they wanted
Speaker 3: to win, they wouldn't be in a must win situation.
Speaker 1: Yeah, if you're in a must win situation, you must
Speaker 1: not be that good, as I think the best way
Speaker 1: to phrase that. I always give Bob credit for that line.
Speaker 1: It's true. But I just think the Cardinals are better
Speaker 1: football team. I really do.
Speaker 3: I think they're they're improved.
Speaker 1: I will say I will say this that the NFC
Speaker 1: West as a group of teams. Who knows how this
Speaker 1: wraps up, but I got the Cardinals. I couldn't. I
Speaker 1: guessed or I believe on guessing lines or three and
Speaker 1: a half. It's two and a half. That's enough in
Speaker 1: a slim pickings week, as you guys were talking about,
Speaker 1: that's enough for me to make a bet. I'm on
Speaker 1: the Cardinals again. They have not done me wrong yet.
Speaker 1: That's my number three.
Speaker 2: Wait, quick bonus pick first half Detroit Mercy over sixty
Speaker 2: seven and a half against Purdue fort Wayne minus one twenty.
Speaker 2: For the people on my WhatsApp group, I forgot my
Speaker 2: other phone with me, so I forgot to put it
Speaker 2: out on there. So if you could still get it
Speaker 2: in by the time you listen to this, you're probably Okay,
Speaker 2: but the commercial's over.
Speaker 1: That is that a game that's happening right now?
Speaker 2: Yes, it is currently sixteen to fourteen perdue fort Wayne
Speaker 2: versus Detroit Mercy.
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, well they're not going to be able
Speaker 1: to get it. So what's your number? First half? Todd?
Speaker 1: I'm making it right.
Speaker 2: Now over sixty seven and a half.
Speaker 1: Oh, se I'm already at seventy. I don't reget that number.
Speaker 2: Well, I'm I'm watching it on ESPN plus it hasn't
Speaker 2: come back from commercial.
Speaker 1: Yet seventy uh. Okay, which brings us to our teaser
Speaker 1: of the week, where I am Breezers.
Speaker 2: Seers has it at sixty seven and a half Caesars.
Speaker 1: I am breathing down the neck of Todd wishnevn will
Speaker 1: Hill when it comes to teasers. Now, after my one
Speaker 1: to oh teaser performance last week, what a teaser it was, Bob,
Speaker 1: your favorite two leg six point teaser of the week
Speaker 1: would be that's my reaction, Bob every time?
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's uh god, you know I'm gonna I'm gonna
Speaker 3: go with the Jets getting it through seven and ten
Speaker 3: and even eleven. I guess I can get plus eleven
Speaker 3: and a half with the Jets. Are they they five
Speaker 3: and a half? Yeah, mostly five and a half, So
Speaker 3: I can get that's eleven and a half, get through
Speaker 3: a couple of key numbers if they get down big.
Speaker 3: I mean, you can see some backdoor going on there,
Speaker 3: and the Jets are just good enough to lose close.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 3: The other one is Philly minus six and a half.
Speaker 3: I get that now too, right as they consensus twelve
Speaker 3: and a half. We said that earlier, right, so I
Speaker 3: can get Philly down to six and a half and
Speaker 3: it would be Jets plus eleven and a half of
Speaker 3: Philly minus six and a half.
Speaker 1: I love it. Bob comes in, He's like Stanford Wong
Speaker 1: Schmanford Schmong.
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's not a lot of that this week, and
Speaker 3: the ones that are in the long teasers I'm not
Speaker 3: really not really vibing with. And aren't that many. I mean, yeah,
Speaker 3: very true, whether one or two maybe, And there just
Speaker 3: aren't anything that I particularly like, So Dotty.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with the stores. I already said why
Speaker 2: I love the stores. I didn't give you a lot
Speaker 2: of meat on the bounds, but I just have a
Speaker 2: feeling this week that you know, we saw enough you know,
Speaker 2: they figured it out, and they're gonna figure out that
Speaker 2: guy Jamis. So Steelers are gonna win the game. And
Speaker 2: I'll also take the six and a half with the
Speaker 2: Eagles for all the reasons you guys have already clearly
Speaker 2: made it clear. Safe one. Barkley may run for one
Speaker 2: thousand yards this week and break the NFL record. By
Speaker 2: the way, is there not a possibility that they give
Speaker 2: the ball to saque to try to get him the
Speaker 2: MVP a lot this week and maybe the alternate lines
Speaker 2: on an already inflated rushing number might be worth a look.
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't even know what the normal line is,
Speaker 2: but could you imagine what it is for like plus
Speaker 2: one seventy five or something one hundred and seventy five
Speaker 2: yards or something. It's probably like big, big time plus.
Speaker 2: They may give it to him, They may feed it
Speaker 2: to them just to get him the MVP.
Speaker 1: Still five weeks, I don't know. It's it's yeah, there's
Speaker 1: a lot of season left to play. But he is
Speaker 1: in line for the NFL record all time record for
Speaker 1: rushing yards, so maybe that's a consideration also, But it's early.
Speaker 1: With the lost game, by the way, Yeah, with the
Speaker 1: extra game, that's correct.
Speaker 3: The whole conversation about the extra game, Well should it count? Well?
Speaker 3: Oj did it in fourteen, and Dickerson did it in
Speaker 3: sixteen and Jim Brown it. How about just rushing yards
Speaker 3: per game? Why? Why is it that the record?
Speaker 2: Yeah, because Bobby in America and in America, people can't
Speaker 2: do math. They can't do math here in America.
Speaker 1: If you know that, Bob, you're asking them to divide.
Speaker 1: Bob division on funny think, Yeah, a division. Multiplication's evil friend. Okay, uh, Todd,
Speaker 1: You're no, you're Todd. You just gave yours, right, I
Speaker 1: think it's me.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I give my Steelers egos.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm just gonna go Buck. Steeler's not a lot
Speaker 4: of great options. But I think both those teams probably
Speaker 4: win their games.
Speaker 1: I'm going rams because I have them ats, and I'll
Speaker 1: take it through the seven rams plus nine and a
Speaker 1: half and I will go. And I know this is
Speaker 1: going to be the death of me. And I know
Speaker 1: this is why this is what Bob's instinct is probably
Speaker 1: correct here, Like, I don't want this. This isn't a longer,
Speaker 1: by the way, it's even worse than a longer because
Speaker 1: it's an away team. But I'm going to take the
Speaker 1: Sinsey Bengals to basically just have to beat the Dallas Cowboys.
Speaker 1: Come on, Bengals.
Speaker 2: Gonna win Cincinnati plus a half plus a half.
Speaker 3: I considered that, Yeah, I remember defense.
Speaker 1: Yeah, then right as I'm saying it, I'm remembering the
Speaker 1: Bengals defense. But you gotta be able to beat them.
Speaker 1: God s you can outscore them, right, even if you
Speaker 1: give up a whole one. And Cooper Rush is gonna
Speaker 1: is gonna keep bace with Joe Burrow, all right. Which
Speaker 1: brings us to our final two questions of each and
Speaker 1: every megapod. Final two questions, first of which is which
Speaker 1: of the big favorites, and there's a lot of them,
Speaker 1: which are the big favorites? In your opinion, is the
Speaker 1: most likely to lose? Outright, Bob, here are your candidates.
Speaker 1: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers six and a half or seven
Speaker 1: and six and a half point favorites hosting the Raiders.
Speaker 1: I think we have Bob's answer already. Perhaps Steelers stealers,
Speaker 1: as Todd would say, seven point favorites against the Cleveland Brownies.
Speaker 1: The Eagles thirteen point frit's at home against the Carolina Panthers.
Speaker 1: Let's leave it to those three. Those are your three choices.
Speaker 1: What about Miami and the Miami.
Speaker 3: They're only five and a half, they're not six. I
Speaker 3: think Tampa and Pittsburgh both could end up losing, just
Speaker 3: I mean Pittsburgh because Cleveland is so variable. I mean,
Speaker 3: they could be great or they could be a disaster.
Speaker 3: So there's a lot of variance in that game. Tampa
Speaker 3: because I already like the Ragers, so I'm going to
Speaker 3: go with the Buccaneers as most likely to lose.
Speaker 2: STI I agree, I I just stin't like the Buccaneers
Speaker 2: defense at all, and I think they could easily lose
Speaker 2: a game. You know, I don't. I don't trust their defense.
Speaker 2: I mean, they should have lost that game to Carolina.
Speaker 3: Let's be honest.
Speaker 4: Well, I'll say Pittsburgh just because Donald division game. Cleveland
Speaker 4: just beat him, which I guess you could say it's
Speaker 4: a revenge angle. But Winston the Old, the Old double
Speaker 4: ahe he can win the game for either team. So
Speaker 4: I'll say Cleveland, but don't feel great about it. Always
Speaker 4: do this backwards.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say Pittsburgh. I'm gonna say Pittsburgh. My instinct
Speaker 1: to say Pittsburgh crushes him because they're, you know, after
Speaker 1: the the old revenge spot theory. But I think Jamis
Speaker 1: right now is like, I'll throw the ball on anybody.
Speaker 4: Eight strikeouts, eight walks, both new league records from off
Speaker 4: from Bull Durham.
Speaker 1: That's James. Jamis said after the game. The Good Lord
Speaker 1: could just prevent him from throwing the pick sixes because
Speaker 1: he knows he's better. See if that's the case, and
Speaker 1: the final could if he could deliver him from not.
Speaker 3: Deliver, he says.
Speaker 1: I love it.
Speaker 3: He says, you know, because that's not me. Like, no,
Speaker 3: that is you. He goes, No, that's just not me.
Speaker 3: Listen to that guy. This man is not self aware.
Speaker 1: Not me. That is one of the greatest It's not
Speaker 1: me's ever. No, that is so you. You have proven
Speaker 1: its time and time again.
Speaker 3: I love him. He's great.
Speaker 1: He's very likeable because you know why, because yeah, super authentic,
Speaker 1: that is him.
Speaker 4: I think he's overdone a little bit now where everybody
Speaker 4: rushes to clip everything he says is like the funniest
Speaker 4: thing ever. I think it's a little overdone and maybe
Speaker 4: he's playing into it, but but he does seem genuine
Speaker 4: and authentic.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would agree with What was the thing that
Speaker 1: I thought was like way over to other Thanksgiving stuff
Speaker 1: with the turkey legs? Please stop with that with a
Speaker 1: turn duckan? Is that is America really that entertained by
Speaker 1: every football game on Thanksgiving? Guys eating turn duckan afterwards?
Speaker 1: The hilarity of it, like Kevin Burkhard just dying laughing.
Speaker 1: That's not all right. Final one. We live in a
Speaker 1: bizarro world. You are forced to bet a side side
Speaker 1: of your choice in every one of these games, but
Speaker 1: you are allowed one free pass, Bob, one game that
Speaker 1: you want no part of. You wouldn't even bet it
Speaker 1: with Todd's money. What game is?
Speaker 3: I think it's Philly Carolina. Like Carolina's playing better. Philly
Speaker 3: could get a big lead, Carolina could backdoor, then Philly
Speaker 3: could be just like I said, running the ball the
Speaker 3: whole time and maybe just eating the clock. I could
Speaker 3: see I could see them winning by twenty and I
Speaker 3: can see this being kind of competitive or a back
Speaker 3: door or And my numbers come up right on the
Speaker 3: number twelve and a half, so I'm not interested in
Speaker 3: that game.
Speaker 1: Twelve and a half is tough. It's a big, big
Speaker 1: number Todd game, you want. No part of.
Speaker 2: The Saints Giants does not interest me. I'm not really
Speaker 2: sure how the Saints can be favored by four and
Speaker 2: a half against any team in the National Football League. However,
Speaker 2: it's the Drew Locke show down in New York, and
Speaker 2: that doesn't really make me too excited too, So I
Speaker 2: just don't really see how you can get involved in that, Willy.
Speaker 4: I was going to use that one. But in a
Speaker 4: sake of being different, and there's a lot to choose from,
Speaker 4: I'll go Vikings Falcons just because if Cousins is banged up,
Speaker 4: you just don't want any part of Atlanta. If they
Speaker 4: throw Pannis in there, that's a rookie versus Flores. But
Speaker 4: you know, just on the surface, that's too many points.
Speaker 4: So that's a good one for me to stay away from.
Speaker 1: I'll have the same preamble you did, which is there's
Speaker 1: a lot to choose from, but for the sake of
Speaker 1: being different, Bears Niners. What I was going to say, like,
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised by any outcome in that game
Speaker 1: if the Niners showed up all of a sudden and
Speaker 1: again with less with fewer bodies than they've ever had.
Speaker 1: It wouldn't surprise me if they beat the Bears. The
Speaker 1: Bears the Bears, after all, But if the Bears won,
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised either, So I want no part
Speaker 1: of that game none.
Speaker 4: Bears will have an advantage though, They will have seven
Speaker 4: timeouts in this game because they get to carry over
Speaker 4: the game the timeout they didn't use on Thanksgiving, which
Speaker 4: is going to be big.
Speaker 1: Hey, rimshot, it's very true, man, They're I don't know,
Speaker 1: by the way, just let's say this in conclusion, I
Speaker 1: don't know what to make of Caleb. Something just appears
Speaker 1: to be a little off, you know what I mean, Like,
Speaker 1: it's just like, dude, you couldn't call a timeout his
Speaker 1: comments after the game, I don't know, man, And I
Speaker 1: always quote Todd Todd's very amusing yet accurate interpretation of
Speaker 1: caleb which is, and Bob, by the way, has this quantified,
Speaker 1: which I have to finish with Bob. But Todd's comment was, Oh,
Speaker 1: let me get this straight. You ran around for your life,
Speaker 1: scrambling back and forth all over the field until your
Speaker 1: five star receivers managed to get open against their four
Speaker 1: star defending components. Oh, and you're not that good in
Speaker 1: the NFL. What a surprise. But Bob, you had a
Speaker 1: great Lincoln Riley thing with him, right.
Speaker 3: Yeah, before the season started, I thought Jane Daniels was
Speaker 3: going to be the best of the rookies, and that
Speaker 3: Boat Nicks was probably going to be the second best,
Speaker 3: just because he's got a high floor and you know,
Speaker 3: sixty one or whatever career college starts, was ready to play.
Speaker 3: But Lincoln Riley's quarterbacks are always good, and he's the
Speaker 3: Going into this season, he was the second worst Lincoln
Speaker 3: Riley quarterback, only ahead of Spencer Rattler. Wow, every other
Speaker 3: Lincoln Riley quarterback had better collegiate numbers than than Williams.
Speaker 3: So this year Miller Moss has been worse.
Speaker 1: You have always been good about projecting from college to
Speaker 1: pro with quarterbacks, if I'm not mistaken. Accuracy is the
Speaker 1: biggest factor in predictive.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, translations. The best is accuracy, and that's why
Speaker 3: I thought Nicks would be pretty good as a rookie.
Speaker 3: Didn't makes quick decisions very accurate. Williams was not inaccurate,
Speaker 3: but he threw a lot of balls in traffic with
Speaker 3: great receivers who made him look good. I mean you
Speaker 3: remember the receiving corp uh he had last year at
Speaker 3: USC was very very good and they saved him a lot.
Speaker 3: I just didn't think he'd be great. He could be
Speaker 3: a good quarterback. I just didn't think he was near
Speaker 3: the best quarterback come out of the draft.
Speaker 1: Merril Hodge, who was on a numbers game, his famous
Speaker 1: quote that we we play every time I bring up
Speaker 1: Caleb's name is nothing special. I don't think. I don't
Speaker 1: think he's special.
Speaker 3: I don't think so.
Speaker 1: All right, he ran, what's that He needs to run more?
Speaker 1: He needs to run more, take off and run.
Speaker 3: That's where a lot of his value is and he's
Speaker 3: not using it.
Speaker 1: Good point, Yeah, because he's not, he's that adds a
Speaker 1: dimension to his game. Jayden Daniels is definitely. I think
Speaker 1: Jayden Daniels is still nursing his injury, so he's cut
Speaker 1: back on that some.
Speaker 3: He's running a little more in the last couple of weeks.
Speaker 3: Daniels like he's running a little more and so his
Speaker 3: ribs might be healed out.
Speaker 1: Getting getting healed up. Thank you, Bob, always a pleasure man.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much. All right, Doc, the great doctor
Speaker 1: Bob d r Bob sports dot com at doctor Bob
Speaker 1: sports dot com for all of his stuff across sports,
Speaker 1: not just the NFL, college football, college basketball. It's all
Speaker 1: there at doctor Bob sports dot com. I used to
Speaker 1: work with Bob many years ago doing baseball. He's the best.
Speaker 1: I always appreciate it. And in the staples of the show,
Speaker 1: Todd wish Nev and Will Hill. Will Hill's podcast should
Speaker 1: have bet more three times a week. Who's your latest guest? Will?
Speaker 4: Mike Sando is going to be on Friday talking the
Speaker 4: NFL awards, his process for you know, when he starts
Speaker 4: to sort things, talking about this weekend's games, where Belichick
Speaker 4: is going to be next to your A lot of.
Speaker 2: Good stuff from Mike Sandal.
Speaker 1: I gotta get Sando back on a number skin. That's
Speaker 1: my dude.
Speaker 3: That's a good listen. Yeah, that's a good one.
Speaker 1: And then Todd wish Nev again action still being shown
Speaker 1: on showtime. You can see him with smoking hot Deanna
Speaker 1: on there back in the day, and Todd is still
Speaker 1: doing his college basketball. Can people join your discourse or
Speaker 1: whatever you would?
Speaker 2: You You can send me a DM on on Twitter,
Speaker 2: but I don't have time always to add all the people.
Speaker 2: But when I anytime I get motivated to add people,
Speaker 2: I will add you.
Speaker 1: Okay, there you go, Thanks for listening, Good luck with
Speaker 1: all your bets. Week fourteen and that ashes so holy,