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This is a 0:00:23.440 --> 0:00:28.720 paid advertisement com check it out. 0:00:28.840 --> 0:00:29.040 Man. 0:00:31.200 --> 0:00:33.600 Thursday morning, December fifth, twenty twenty four is the Beating 0:00:33.640 --> 0:00:38.400 the Book Podcast Megapod Week fourteen National Football League. It's 0:00:38.479 --> 0:00:42.800 Gil Alexander, thanks for joining us. As Todd Wishnev increases 0:00:42.840 --> 0:00:45.880 his lead after a three and zero performance last week 0:00:45.920 --> 0:00:48.400 on the megapod one and a half game lead. Dodd 0:00:48.440 --> 0:00:51.239 Wishnev from his mom's cork Attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania at 0:00:51.280 --> 0:00:55.040 t wish Nev on Twitter, star of the Showtime docuseriies 0:00:55.040 --> 0:00:57.920 action hasn't had a haircut, and I'm gonna guess two 0:00:58.000 --> 0:01:00.160 months now, what do you think? Two? 0:01:00.200 --> 0:01:01.200 Once over? 0:01:01.360 --> 0:01:02.880 No over? 0:01:03.400 --> 0:01:07.240 I'm over take the over on that? Okay over? Todd 0:01:07.280 --> 0:01:09.760 congratulates on the three and oh, well done, sir, well done, 0:01:10.000 --> 0:01:11.039 well done. 0:01:11.800 --> 0:01:13.559 Yes, you got to give the people what they want. 0:01:13.880 --> 0:01:17.120 This this guy, he talks when he's when he's not 0:01:17.120 --> 0:01:19.360 supposed to talk. He doesn't talk when he's supposed to talk. 0:01:19.400 --> 0:01:22.360 It's just incredible. Okay. Will Hill at not the Will 0:01:22.480 --> 0:01:25.440 Hill on Twitter host the should Have Bet More podcast, 0:01:25.680 --> 0:01:28.520 also part of Bear Bets at Chris Philka's podcast Empire 0:01:28.520 --> 0:01:31.080 at Fox Sports, and of course a staple on this show. 0:01:31.120 --> 0:01:33.000 How are you doing? Will Boys? 0:01:33.040 --> 0:01:33.520 What's going on? 0:01:33.600 --> 0:01:34.400 God to see everyone? 0:01:35.600 --> 0:01:37.160 I hate Todd, That's the first thing I want to 0:01:37.160 --> 0:01:39.959 get out. My man uh And then our rotating guest, 0:01:40.040 --> 0:01:43.000 an annual guest on this show. He is He doesn't 0:01:43.040 --> 0:01:45.880 like to be called a pioneer. He's one of the vanguards, 0:01:46.160 --> 0:01:49.400 one of the first to UH successfully as a business 0:01:49.640 --> 0:01:52.520 predict the outcome of sporting events through predictive modeling. It 0:01:52.640 --> 0:01:55.200 is my dear friend Bob Stole. You know him better 0:01:55.240 --> 0:01:59.480 as doctor Bob at d R bobsports dot com. Dr 0:01:59.520 --> 0:02:02.480 Bob It's on Twitter. I yout a Bob good. 0:02:02.520 --> 0:02:04.280 It's a pleasure to be honest. This is my this 0:02:04.360 --> 0:02:06.480 is my sort of off week in college football. There 0:02:06.480 --> 0:02:10.120 are not sixty games this week, so it's more more manageable, 0:02:10.840 --> 0:02:12.760 uh than any other week of the of the year. 0:02:12.880 --> 0:02:15.440 So it's it's it's good to be having a little 0:02:15.440 --> 0:02:16.360 bit of sleep this week. 0:02:17.160 --> 0:02:19.239 Yeah, I was going to say this is a UH 0:02:19.320 --> 0:02:21.600 and now it gets Now you get to have more 0:02:21.639 --> 0:02:24.840 sleep with you know, with the uh with the playoff coming. 0:02:25.040 --> 0:02:27.800 There's still bowl games, right, we don't even talk about. 0:02:27.720 --> 0:02:30.760 Yeah we have the bowl games. Aren't sixty games in 0:02:30.800 --> 0:02:33.040 one week that I've got to dig into and you know, 0:02:33.280 --> 0:02:35.480 So it's it's it's spread out over a month, so 0:02:35.800 --> 0:02:38.600 it's more manageable than a regular week of college football, 0:02:38.600 --> 0:02:42.440 which is just very taxing, especially with college basketball overlapping. 0:02:42.560 --> 0:02:45.040 Yeah, I'm just I'm just thinking about that just from 0:02:45.080 --> 0:02:48.079 a broadcast perspective, like we I haven't even thought about 0:02:48.120 --> 0:02:50.160 bowl games usually, I'm like, oh, I got to do 0:02:50.160 --> 0:02:53.160 these massive bowl game podcasts. Haven't even thought about it. 0:02:53.600 --> 0:02:55.680 I wonder if that's because of the twelve team bracket. 0:02:55.720 --> 0:02:59.200 Now it's like it's a minimized Yeah, the ball. 0:02:59.040 --> 0:03:01.080 Games were the advertiser while you wait for the for 0:03:01.160 --> 0:03:05.160 the main entrec Now the main entree served earlier that's right. 0:03:05.200 --> 0:03:07.120 I still think it's going to be a huge matchup 0:03:07.120 --> 0:03:09.960 in the blue Bonnet Bowl this year. The blue Bonnet 0:03:10.000 --> 0:03:12.160 is really do they still have the blue Bonnet Bowl? 0:03:12.200 --> 0:03:13.040 I don't think they do. 0:03:13.160 --> 0:03:19.200 No, no, no, that was the best the blue Bonnet Bowl, 0:03:20.480 --> 0:03:24.440 blue Bonnet Bowl. All right, before we get to best 0:03:24.520 --> 0:03:27.160 bets and all of that, let's get through the uh, 0:03:27.280 --> 0:03:30.080 let's get through the court stenographer portion of the of 0:03:30.120 --> 0:03:34.400 the broadcast, Todd Wishnev records. 0:03:35.640 --> 0:03:40.520 Well, yes, last week was a quite an outstanding week 0:03:40.560 --> 0:03:43.840 for yours truly with a three and oh as you mentioned. 0:03:44.160 --> 0:03:48.040 But Willie and Gilly by both using Green Bay and Arizona, 0:03:48.480 --> 0:03:51.080 also had a nice week at two and one. That 0:03:51.120 --> 0:03:54.600 brings Gilly to twenty one seventeen and one, nothing to 0:03:54.640 --> 0:03:57.160 sniff at. He also won a teaser. How do you 0:03:57.320 --> 0:04:00.520 like that, Gilly winning a teaser going to three one 0:04:00.600 --> 0:04:03.880 on TV? Yeah? I thought you did one with the 0:04:03.880 --> 0:04:06.400 Bills in Denver? Did Denver end up winning the ball game? 0:04:06.400 --> 0:04:07.120 I both they did? 0:04:07.400 --> 0:04:08.520 I did, I did win it? 0:04:08.600 --> 0:04:16.080 Yeah, Jillie one. Will will the thrill Hill was really 0:04:16.080 --> 0:04:18.040 struggling early in the year, but he's made a comeback, 0:04:18.040 --> 0:04:20.120 I believe I said he's going to make a comeback, 0:04:20.160 --> 0:04:22.560 and he has. He's back to eighteen twenty and one 0:04:23.279 --> 0:04:26.480 and respectable five, six and two on his teasers. He 0:04:26.520 --> 0:04:29.920 also won with the Bills and the Falcons. I, as 0:04:29.960 --> 0:04:33.080 we said, went to twenty three and sixteen with my 0:04:33.560 --> 0:04:37.440 beautiful three and oh when the Buccaneers went to overtime 0:04:37.480 --> 0:04:40.160 to get me the over there, so and I lost 0:04:40.200 --> 0:04:42.640 my teaser. I'm six and seven on teasers, and the 0:04:42.680 --> 0:04:49.040 guests spot twenty twenty eighteen and one and also six 0:04:49.080 --> 0:04:51.360 and seven on the teaser, So the guest spot is 0:04:51.400 --> 0:04:54.400 slightly above. I am sure doctor Bob will continue to 0:04:54.440 --> 0:04:56.840 make the guest spot profitable. 0:04:57.720 --> 0:04:59.719 You know I've been doing this. I've been doing this 0:04:59.760 --> 0:05:02.560 Maga pod for what ten years? Nine years. I keep 0:05:02.600 --> 0:05:04.720 good records, Gill. I have never been worse than two 0:05:04.800 --> 0:05:05.279 and one. 0:05:06.200 --> 0:05:08.760 Never worse than two and one on the megapod, never. 0:05:08.640 --> 0:05:11.080 Worse two and one with a couple three and oh 0:05:11.120 --> 0:05:11.800 sprinkled in. 0:05:12.600 --> 0:05:16.640 I like that little self and self pressure. 0:05:18.320 --> 0:05:18.800 Myself. 0:05:19.560 --> 0:05:20.839 I know I was gonna say, but good for you 0:05:20.920 --> 0:05:24.720 for that's awesome two and one at the worst on 0:05:24.760 --> 0:05:27.400 this show. You also have a good numbers game record too, 0:05:27.560 --> 0:05:29.600 I am your lucky charm, Bob. 0:05:29.880 --> 0:05:33.640 You are indeed meeting you with a I can't say 0:05:33.640 --> 0:05:35.360 it's the best thing that ever happened in my in 0:05:35.400 --> 0:05:37.359 my life. In my case, my wife is listening. But 0:05:38.360 --> 0:05:38.960 we know it is. 0:05:39.880 --> 0:05:44.000 We know it, you and me. No, okay? Which okay? 0:05:44.000 --> 0:05:47.560 Which brings us to our Dumbo of the Week segment. 0:05:47.960 --> 0:05:52.720 And because Thanksgiving is included, is there any doubt? No, 0:05:52.200 --> 0:05:53.040 I know we can. 0:05:53.920 --> 0:05:57.520 But I'd like to also nominate somebody else. And and 0:05:57.560 --> 0:06:00.359 because obviously everyone's going to jump on the bear's or 0:06:00.600 --> 0:06:03.159 the ex coach, but I would just like to say 0:06:03.400 --> 0:06:07.800 that when they throw an interception, the game is not over. 0:06:08.000 --> 0:06:12.279 Elijah Moore and all the linemen on Cleveland and Jameis Winston. 0:06:12.880 --> 0:06:16.240 When you throw an interception and the defender is lying 0:06:16.440 --> 0:06:19.320 on the floor, the game, the play is not over. 0:06:19.360 --> 0:06:22.680 It's not college football. The play is not over. You 0:06:22.760 --> 0:06:25.840 must go over and touch the man in order to 0:06:26.000 --> 0:06:29.080 consider him down. But if you're Elijah Moore, no, you 0:06:29.160 --> 0:06:31.240 head straight for the refreshment to look for AWT talk. 0:06:31.440 --> 0:06:33.600 He's not even interested in trying to make a tackle. 0:06:33.960 --> 0:06:36.599 Neither is any of the linemen running over. And then 0:06:36.640 --> 0:06:39.039 this is what's most puzzling when they go for the 0:06:39.080 --> 0:06:42.920 back door touchdown late and Jamis throws another interception. All 0:06:42.920 --> 0:06:45.080 of a sudden, they're running the linebacker down for the 0:06:45.240 --> 0:06:48.960 when it's absolutely meaningless. So explain to me how that happens. 0:06:49.160 --> 0:06:52.480 I would like to elect all of the offensive players 0:06:52.520 --> 0:06:56.000 on the Browns as the asshole Dumbos of the week 0:06:56.040 --> 0:06:58.000 for not running and trying to touch down a guy 0:06:58.080 --> 0:06:58.839 laying on the floor. 0:06:59.600 --> 0:07:02.800 It's a very good choice. Elijah Moore, who uh it 0:07:02.880 --> 0:07:06.560 was Jamis's second pick six? What ended up being Jamis's 0:07:06.560 --> 0:07:09.680 second pick six, and it was the touchdown that put 0:07:09.880 --> 0:07:13.800 the Broncos in cover position. Where you're right, Elijah Moore 0:07:13.920 --> 0:07:17.119 was the intended receiver. This is the McMillan pick six 0:07:17.640 --> 0:07:19.280 where all he had to do was like take three 0:07:19.320 --> 0:07:21.880 steps back on the field and tag him down because McMillan, 0:07:22.080 --> 0:07:24.320 for like a pregnant pause, was like I'm fine down 0:07:24.320 --> 0:07:26.240 here on the ground, and then he was like, oh, 0:07:26.480 --> 0:07:29.480 I haven't been touched. And as Will pointed out too 0:07:29.520 --> 0:07:32.880 on a numbers game, it's like that replay also did 0:07:32.920 --> 0:07:35.720 not touch him on the way down, barely missed him. 0:07:36.040 --> 0:07:37.600 So he had to know that he had to go 0:07:37.640 --> 0:07:40.800 back and tag him. It's just such mount practice that 0:07:40.800 --> 0:07:44.080 that Jamis thing was the worst. If you had the Browns, 0:07:44.960 --> 0:07:46.680 he ended up killing you with a pick six to 0:07:46.720 --> 0:07:49.240 lose the first half. Bet pick six to lose the game. 0:07:49.280 --> 0:07:51.760 Bet every ind game bet you could have possibly had. 0:07:52.320 --> 0:07:54.240 It was just it was just a tour de force 0:07:54.320 --> 0:07:58.240 of Jamis wins tour to four. But Matt everfws who 0:07:58.280 --> 0:08:00.000 lost his I'm sorry, go ahead. 0:08:00.800 --> 0:08:02.520 I was gonna say. The the way to bet the 0:08:02.560 --> 0:08:05.760 Browns since Winston took over is the over, which I 0:08:05.840 --> 0:08:09.240 had as a player on that game. They're four and 0:08:09.280 --> 0:08:11.920 one over since Winston took over. Because Deshaun Watson was 0:08:12.800 --> 0:08:13.960 historically bad. 0:08:15.280 --> 0:08:18.760 Historically? How did he get that bad? By the way, 0:08:19.280 --> 0:08:20.240 is it just the shame? 0:08:21.520 --> 0:08:21.640 Oh? 0:08:21.680 --> 0:08:23.680 I think nine hundred days of not playing the position, 0:08:23.720 --> 0:08:25.560 you're just not getting the reps. It's you just if 0:08:25.560 --> 0:08:26.920 you don't use it, you lose it. And it's just 0:08:27.080 --> 0:08:29.960 you lose that instinct. I guess you lose just Hey, 0:08:30.000 --> 0:08:32.440 it's hard to simulate playing quarterback in the NFL against 0:08:32.440 --> 0:08:34.240 like live defenses if you're not doing it. I guess 0:08:34.320 --> 0:08:36.520 this is we don't really have any other comparisons of 0:08:36.600 --> 0:08:38.400 guys sitting out for three years or whatever it was 0:08:38.559 --> 0:08:39.840 set out for like three years. 0:08:40.559 --> 0:08:43.319 Well, Aaron Rodgers hasn't been himself either after sitting out 0:08:43.320 --> 0:08:44.000 a year change. 0:08:44.120 --> 0:08:47.000 So you know, it was the other RG three all 0:08:47.000 --> 0:08:48.559 of a sudden when he came back from his injuries, 0:08:48.600 --> 0:08:51.000 some mechanics just went out the window. Was another guy, 0:08:51.600 --> 0:08:54.640 you know, after a long, long time out Eberflews. The 0:08:54.880 --> 0:08:56.840 award the Dumbo of the Week should be named after 0:08:56.880 --> 0:09:02.320 Matt Ebberflus. After again, the uh Bears inexplicably did not 0:09:02.400 --> 0:09:04.920 call a timeout in the final sequence against the Allions 0:09:04.960 --> 0:09:07.199 on Thanksgiving. We don't need to go through the details 0:09:07.520 --> 0:09:09.800 other than I would say it's about eighty percent ever Flus, 0:09:09.960 --> 0:09:12.480 twenty percent of Caleb Williams. Because that dude's been playing 0:09:12.480 --> 0:09:14.680 football his life. He couldn't have called time out either. 0:09:15.280 --> 0:09:17.080 He calling a different play. 0:09:17.679 --> 0:09:19.839 And then at the end, at the end, he doesn't 0:09:19.880 --> 0:09:23.360 realize you cannot throw the football down the field long 0:09:23.800 --> 0:09:25.920 at that point, just spike the goddamn ball and get 0:09:25.920 --> 0:09:28.120 at least a field goal chance. No, he throws it 0:09:28.240 --> 0:09:29.520 long the whole play. 0:09:29.559 --> 0:09:31.280 Gus. Unbelievable. 0:09:32.000 --> 0:09:36.520 It's terrible, absolutely terrible, by the way, the Raiders spiking 0:09:36.520 --> 0:09:38.680 it with fifteen seconds left as opposed to letting you 0:09:38.760 --> 0:09:40.800 go down three seconds and spiking it because you knew 0:09:40.800 --> 0:09:42.480 they were going to invent a way to lose that 0:09:42.559 --> 0:09:44.320 game against the Chiefs. 0:09:44.600 --> 0:09:48.160 By the way, was that right standard Raiders? That's standard 0:09:48.200 --> 0:09:50.680 Raiders practice, That's not unusual. 0:09:50.880 --> 0:09:54.200 But by the way, was that the right? Was that 0:09:54.240 --> 0:09:57.480 officiated correctly? The end of that Raiders Chiefs game? Isn't 0:09:57.480 --> 0:10:01.440 that like a dead ball in some other games? I 0:10:01.440 --> 0:10:01.839 don't know. 0:10:02.040 --> 0:10:04.920 I was hosting vsin so I couldn't. I was just watching. 0:10:04.960 --> 0:10:06.520 I didn't have the sound, but usually when it's a 0:10:06.520 --> 0:10:08.080 false start, they blow it dead. But I would have 0:10:08.120 --> 0:10:09.719 to go back and watch it with the whistle. But 0:10:09.800 --> 0:10:12.120 I know a lot of people's see too, me too. 0:10:12.960 --> 0:10:16.040 Okay, then, Todd, before the Best Bets, anything in gamy 0:10:16.160 --> 0:10:16.720 that you wanted to. 0:10:16.720 --> 0:10:19.319 Share or Yeah, I just wanted to talk about one 0:10:19.360 --> 0:10:22.040 real quick thing, and that is getting off a bet 0:10:22.160 --> 0:10:25.160 that you don't like. So in the Bills game and 0:10:25.360 --> 0:10:27.839 late sometime in the second quarter, I think I took 0:10:27.880 --> 0:10:30.920 the over because I could see the snow was really 0:10:31.040 --> 0:10:34.040 kind of hindering the defense. If you noticed, you know, 0:10:34.200 --> 0:10:37.120 a cook got a handoff and ran eight million yards. 0:10:37.280 --> 0:10:40.080 They were just gashing them on the ground, and you 0:10:40.120 --> 0:10:42.480 could you could kind of see the defense wasn't as 0:10:42.559 --> 0:10:45.000 quick because they don't know where the offense is going. 0:10:45.040 --> 0:10:47.320 A lot of times people think snow is actually an under. 0:10:47.360 --> 0:10:50.400 It's really wind is an under, and snow can sometimes 0:10:50.400 --> 0:10:52.920 actually be an over. So I took over forty six 0:10:52.960 --> 0:10:56.600 and a half. And then of course Juice Deck fumbles 0:10:56.640 --> 0:10:59.319 on the first drive the third quarter at the two 0:10:59.400 --> 0:11:01.920 yard line, like, all right, I'm in trouble now. But 0:11:02.120 --> 0:11:06.439 we go to the mid to late about ten to nine, 0:11:06.520 --> 0:11:08.320 ten minutes left in the in the fourth quarter, it's 0:11:08.360 --> 0:11:11.120 thirty five to ten, and the Bills had already brought 0:11:11.160 --> 0:11:14.560 in Trubisky. And at that point, I have over forty 0:11:14.559 --> 0:11:17.160 six and a half and we're at forty five, and 0:11:17.200 --> 0:11:19.080 I could get off on forty seven and a half 0:11:19.080 --> 0:11:21.400 and just pay the viig And I said, I've seen this, 0:11:21.800 --> 0:11:24.680 I've seen this show before. I've seen Trubisky in the game. 0:11:24.920 --> 0:11:26.160 At the end of the game, they're just going to 0:11:26.240 --> 0:11:28.360 run the game. You know, this game is over. So 0:11:28.440 --> 0:11:30.480 I jumped off it at like minus one ten, So 0:11:30.520 --> 0:11:32.840 I ended up paying viig of you know, one ten 0:11:33.400 --> 0:11:35.760 and got off what would have been a sure loser 0:11:35.800 --> 0:11:38.360 at that point because you know, the snow had started 0:11:38.360 --> 0:11:40.520 to got worse, and it wasn't like the Niners were 0:11:40.520 --> 0:11:43.400 doing anything at that point either. So you know, sometimes 0:11:43.400 --> 0:11:45.840 you make a good in gameplay to get off something. 0:11:46.200 --> 0:11:47.920 You know, even if you have to just pay the viig, 0:11:48.520 --> 0:11:50.400 it can be worth it, and in that case it was. 0:11:51.200 --> 0:11:55.000 I love that. Here's my question to you, how give 0:11:55.040 --> 0:11:58.959 me the percentage of give me the percentage of times 0:11:59.480 --> 0:12:03.959 you think to do that and you actually do that. Well, 0:12:04.000 --> 0:12:06.320 I'm getting better at it at right. 0:12:06.360 --> 0:12:08.960 I used to actually just hang in with my bet 0:12:09.000 --> 0:12:12.679 and root for my bet to win, and now I'm 0:12:12.760 --> 0:12:16.400 much better at saying, you know what, I'm cutting bait 0:12:16.440 --> 0:12:18.680 with this. I don't love it anymore. If I can 0:12:18.720 --> 0:12:21.600 get out with a possible slight middle chance or get 0:12:21.600 --> 0:12:24.719 out with a big chance. For instance, the Packer the 0:12:24.800 --> 0:12:27.440 game where the Bears lost by one, I believe to 0:12:27.480 --> 0:12:29.680 the Packers, I had an opportunity to have time to 0:12:29.679 --> 0:12:31.520 get the Bears plus one and a half to go 0:12:31.600 --> 0:12:34.360 with my Packer's money line, which is a really small 0:12:34.360 --> 0:12:37.040 middle one and a half the money line. The only 0:12:37.160 --> 0:12:39.319 way you can middle is if it lands on one. Well, 0:12:39.360 --> 0:12:41.200 of course it did land on one when they missed 0:12:41.200 --> 0:12:42.520 the field goal at the end of that game. But 0:12:42.559 --> 0:12:45.040 that was a perfect example where I didn't like how 0:12:45.080 --> 0:12:47.199 it was going. They were giving me one and a 0:12:47.240 --> 0:12:49.520 half points to get out of this. I'm getting out. 0:12:49.760 --> 0:12:51.200 There's always other opportunities. 0:12:52.120 --> 0:12:52.600 I have you. 0:12:54.480 --> 0:12:58.000 Tampa Bay Carolina. Tampa is down three with thirty seconds left. 0:12:58.360 --> 0:13:01.439 They have all their timeouts. Carolina just scored a touchdown. 0:13:01.679 --> 0:13:04.400 Some books had them plus five hundred. They have plenty 0:13:04.400 --> 0:13:06.079 of time to get in a field goal range. Their 0:13:06.120 --> 0:13:08.199 favorite to the game to start like these teams always 0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:10.120 getting a field goal range. You have all four downs 0:13:10.160 --> 0:13:12.000 to work with, you have all three timeouts. That number 0:13:12.040 --> 0:13:14.200 should not be plus five hundred. So you know, sometimes 0:13:14.240 --> 0:13:15.959 I think people when there's thirty seconds in the game, 0:13:16.000 --> 0:13:18.040 they just kind of ignore the game from a live 0:13:18.040 --> 0:13:20.640 betting standpoint. Those there's some meat. 0:13:20.520 --> 0:13:22.640 On the bone with those, I think, and we were 0:13:22.880 --> 0:13:23.960 we know that we. 0:13:24.840 --> 0:13:26.720 Know that Will did it because he texted it when 0:13:26.760 --> 0:13:29.560 he did it. What percentage of books do you think 0:13:29.760 --> 0:13:31.880 are up with that price at that moment? 0:13:33.160 --> 0:13:35.199 Most of them to draftings have it, Yeah, FANDOL and 0:13:35.280 --> 0:13:36.000 DraftKings have it. 0:13:36.760 --> 0:13:40.000 Yeah, seeing EVA, we're screwed. Really yeah, we don't have 0:13:40.040 --> 0:13:41.960 those books. Yeah, because here I'm like, first of all, 0:13:42.000 --> 0:13:44.320 I'm not on them to know necessarily what the percentage is. 0:13:44.320 --> 0:13:47.720 But it strikes me that it's not as like bookmaker 0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:51.760 for instance, you know offshore Pillar oftentimes punts on that 0:13:51.840 --> 0:13:53.319 kind of stuff. They don't have that available. 0:13:54.720 --> 0:13:57.400 I forget which you got one with plus one forty 0:13:57.400 --> 0:13:59.960 seven going to overtime. I forget what it was, but you. 0:14:01.920 --> 0:14:07.000 College college basketball. It was Michigan State North Carolina, and 0:14:07.040 --> 0:14:09.160 it was just like, it's just one of those things 0:14:09.160 --> 0:14:11.440 where it's like, should either of these two teams be 0:14:11.520 --> 0:14:15.000 plus one forty seven heading in overtime? I'm not sure. 0:14:15.000 --> 0:14:16.520 I wouldn't have made the benefit was on the other 0:14:16.559 --> 0:14:19.920 side also, right, So those those are good ones. Are 0:14:19.960 --> 0:14:22.680 those opportunities exist? Bob? My question to you on all 0:14:22.720 --> 0:14:25.960 that is, you have no time to do any of that, right, 0:14:26.040 --> 0:14:30.080 I'm guessing I have never made. 0:14:29.960 --> 0:14:33.880 Any game bet in my life. Wow, when the games 0:14:33.880 --> 0:14:37.840 are being played, that's the only time I have off 0:14:38.760 --> 0:14:41.560 I knew that was the day back in my single 0:14:41.600 --> 0:14:45.680 days in San Francisco. I was on dates hopefully, and 0:14:45.920 --> 0:14:47.560 since I've been married, that's the time I spent with 0:14:47.600 --> 0:14:51.760 my family. So yeah, I just don't bother. Usually I 0:14:51.800 --> 0:14:54.600 don't even watch the games. I just I'm doing. It's 0:14:54.640 --> 0:14:56.640 my only time off is when the game's being. 0:14:56.680 --> 0:15:01.240 Oh but Bob, we were so young, so young. Oh, yes, 0:15:02.080 --> 0:15:05.320 back in the day. Okay, best bets, but let's start 0:15:05.320 --> 0:15:08.760 with Thursday night football. Does anybody have a thought or 0:15:08.920 --> 0:15:10.960 one of their best bets on Thursday Night football tonight 0:15:11.000 --> 0:15:13.160 between the Packers and the Lions, which is a good 0:15:13.200 --> 0:15:15.480 game on paper, Lions favored by three and a half 0:15:15.640 --> 0:15:17.760 and as great as the Lions have been eleven and one, 0:15:18.160 --> 0:15:21.200 they have Minnesota game behind them. In the NFC North, 0:15:21.240 --> 0:15:24.200 they have Green Bay two games behind them, and then 0:15:24.200 --> 0:15:26.080 for the number one seed, they only have the Eagles 0:15:26.080 --> 0:15:28.880 one game behind. So it's not like Detroit is out 0:15:28.920 --> 0:15:31.000 of the woods on anything yet. They haven't clinched or 0:15:31.560 --> 0:15:34.640 accomplished anything quite yet. Any play on tonight's game from 0:15:34.640 --> 0:15:37.080 many of us, I like the over. 0:15:37.280 --> 0:15:40.080 I'm gonna use that as one of my picks. Oh. 0:15:41.600 --> 0:15:43.560 I almost did the same thing, Willie, but I'm not 0:15:43.600 --> 0:15:44.760 gonna do go ahead. 0:15:46.360 --> 0:15:48.600 Both these teams are top four in league yards per play. 0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:50.800 Your indoors weather's not going to be an issue. I 0:15:50.840 --> 0:15:52.720 think you can throw out the game. Last time they 0:15:52.720 --> 0:15:55.120 played a month or so ago, where Love was banged up, 0:15:55.120 --> 0:15:57.680 probably shouldn't have been out there. It was rainy. Lions 0:15:57.680 --> 0:15:59.040 got a big lead and just took the air. 0:15:58.920 --> 0:15:59.960 Out of the ball. 0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:02.760 Detroit is all kind of beat up on defense. Both 0:16:02.760 --> 0:16:04.880 good offenses. To me, Detroit's gonna get there, you know, 0:16:04.920 --> 0:16:07.480 twenty seven points against pretty much anyone. I think this 0:16:07.640 --> 0:16:10.080 is uh, you know, thirty to twenty seven type of game. 0:16:10.080 --> 0:16:15.200 I like the overhear. I am going to go opo. 0:16:15.440 --> 0:16:16.880 I'm gonna go under. 0:16:18.400 --> 0:16:21.520 The numbers fifty and a half correct, the. 0:16:21.520 --> 0:16:23.480 Number is fifty one and a half. 0:16:23.560 --> 0:16:25.880 Yes, one and a half and a half. 0:16:25.920 --> 0:16:27.520 If you want to, if you one and a half, 0:16:27.520 --> 0:16:33.120 I'm gonna go under. Lions go Man forty three percent 0:16:33.160 --> 0:16:38.280 of the time. Jordan Love thirty eighth in quarterback rating, 0:16:38.280 --> 0:16:43.920 thirty ninth against Man. Love against the blitz and by 0:16:43.960 --> 0:16:46.760 the way, Detroit has gotten better on the blitz since 0:16:46.840 --> 0:16:50.120 Aiden Hutchinson high not better, but they they blitz at 0:16:50.120 --> 0:16:52.560 a higher rate fifth highest rate the second highest rate 0:16:52.600 --> 0:16:57.040 since Hutchinson has been down. Jordan Love almost goes from 0:16:57.080 --> 0:17:01.000 first to worst EPA per drop back against four fewer 0:17:01.040 --> 0:17:03.680 rushers he's best in the league. Where they bring five, 0:17:03.960 --> 0:17:08.040 he goes to thirty third out of thirty four. That's amazing. 0:17:09.280 --> 0:17:12.760 And then also the fact that Zarius Smith seventeen pressures 0:17:13.600 --> 0:17:15.920 in Hutchinson's absence, has been really good. You're right about 0:17:16.000 --> 0:17:19.239 Alex Azeloni being out, Jack Campbell, Malcolm Rodriguez have kind 0:17:19.280 --> 0:17:21.600 of stepped up, so I don't like. And then Josh Jacobs, 0:17:21.680 --> 0:17:23.280 you know, gonna try. They're going to establish their run. 0:17:23.280 --> 0:17:26.840 They're going to try to with Josh Jacobs. They can try. 0:17:26.880 --> 0:17:30.560 Detroit's Diaz ranked fourth, but Green Bay is going to 0:17:30.560 --> 0:17:33.920 try given those Jordan Love stats, I think. And then 0:17:33.960 --> 0:17:36.320 on the other side, Packer's good against the run two 0:17:36.359 --> 0:17:38.720 twelfth and DVOA. I don't think they can stop the 0:17:38.920 --> 0:17:42.679 Detroit running game, but they can certainly contain it, and 0:17:42.720 --> 0:17:44.440 then that will allow them to blitz more. I just 0:17:44.480 --> 0:17:46.639 think fifty one and a half is a lot, and 0:17:46.720 --> 0:17:49.600 I think the instinct is to go over. But for 0:17:49.720 --> 0:17:51.479 some reason, by the way, when they played each other 0:17:51.520 --> 0:17:53.480 earlier in the year, I think they got to thirty eight. 0:17:53.800 --> 0:17:57.920 If I'm not mistaken, that's not a fair game because 0:17:57.920 --> 0:18:00.800 it was disgusting whether and it was raining and pouring 0:18:00.840 --> 0:18:01.520 and disgusting. 0:18:01.760 --> 0:18:03.800 Well again, if you had just let me finish my thought, 0:18:03.840 --> 0:18:05.879 I said, I get it, it was outdoors. But you know 0:18:06.000 --> 0:18:07.679 you could interrupt and make it sound like an idiot. 0:18:08.680 --> 0:18:09.640 I get it anyway. 0:18:10.359 --> 0:18:12.639 Anyway, I'm going under under fifty one and a half 0:18:13.119 --> 0:18:17.479 very much. I'm gonna start interrupting you right before the comma. 0:18:17.600 --> 0:18:21.240 Also see how that goes. Problem. You know, I love 0:18:21.400 --> 0:18:27.120 the Jews, except right like that kind of thing. By 0:18:27.119 --> 0:18:28.840 the way, we got to complain someone was upset that 0:18:28.840 --> 0:18:33.960 we were talking about religion last Oh great, that kind 0:18:33.960 --> 0:18:36.840 of show. Okay, So I am on the UNDERWELLA is 0:18:36.880 --> 0:18:40.879 on the over. As one of our best bets, Bob, 0:18:41.119 --> 0:18:44.240 we go to you, sir for your first best bet. 0:18:44.640 --> 0:18:50.520 Oh goodness, I'm gonna go with the Raiders. They have 0:18:50.600 --> 0:18:54.480 not given up. They keep playing hard. I think they 0:18:54.520 --> 0:18:58.479 have a good matchup against Tampa's defense, and O'Connell's been 0:18:58.600 --> 0:19:02.080 better against the blitz compared to a standard rush. Buccaneers 0:19:02.080 --> 0:19:05.399 s blitz the second highest rate in the league. Brock 0:19:05.520 --> 0:19:08.760