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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 3: Hello, FOCOM the Action Network Podcast. UFC three eighteen betting Preview.

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Speaker 3: I'm Sean Zerula, joined today by Billy Ward to help

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Speaker 3: you break down this weekend's UFC card to give you

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Speaker 3: our best bets, top props, favorite underdogs and more. And

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Speaker 3: if you'd like to tell some of the bets that

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Speaker 3: we discuss on today's show, make sure to find the

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Speaker 3: quick slip links both in the podcast and the video description,

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Speaker 3: or go to Action Network dot com slash bet now

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Speaker 3: fourteen fight card from this Movie King Center in New Orleans,

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Speaker 3: Louisiana for Dustin Poyer's retirement fight and the BMF title

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Speaker 3: bout between Max Holloway and Dustin Poyer. Fight is minus

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Speaker 3: one thirty five to go to a decision, plus one

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Speaker 3: oh five to end inside the distance. Billy and I

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Speaker 3: are both aligned on Holloway this week, and the market

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Speaker 3: has steamed in his direction. I make Holloway about a

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Speaker 3: minus one seventy favorite in this matchup after accounting for

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Speaker 3: the public data that I incorporate into my model. Dustin

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Speaker 3: has won the first two fights in what will be

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Speaker 3: a trilogy between the pair. He won at UFC one

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Speaker 3: forty three and twenty twelve triangle armbar submission. He also

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Speaker 3: won a decision at UFC two thirty six and April

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Speaker 3: twenty nineteen for the interim lightweight title, beat Max forty

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Speaker 3: nine to forty six on all three scorecards. Dustin has

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Speaker 3: a three inch reach advantage, but I don't think he's

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Speaker 3: much or as big compared to Holloway as he used

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Speaker 3: to be. My main take going into this fight kind

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Speaker 3: of is off the back of my take going into

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Speaker 3: the Gaichee fight, where Max gave himself time to finally

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Speaker 3: grow into the one hundred and fifty five pound division,

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Speaker 3: finally added some muscle and moved up the proper way.

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Speaker 3: When he was coming up to fight for the interim title,

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Speaker 3: Dustin did have a big size advantage over him. I

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Speaker 3: don't think that that is going to be the case anymore.

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Speaker 3: As he proved in the fight against Gaechee. I think

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Speaker 3: his power is just a little bit up from where

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Speaker 3: it was previously. I think he's added a little bit

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Speaker 3: muscle into his frame as he's entered his late thirties

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Speaker 3: or mid thirties. The concern obviously, coming off of the

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Speaker 3: knockout loss against the Eliottory do we see any sort

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Speaker 3: of chin regression skill regression from Holloway after such a

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Speaker 3: brutal knockout. But by the numbers, he is the more

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Speaker 3: efficient striker, outstriking opponents by about two point two strikes

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Speaker 3: permitted compared to one point one for Dustin. Dustin does

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Speaker 3: have the grappling upside, controls about fifty percent of grappling

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Speaker 3: positions throughout his career, Max just thirty nine percent, but

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Speaker 3: I don't expect them to spend much time grappling on

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Speaker 3: the mat. If anybody does have success, though, I do

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Speaker 3: think it's likely to be dust But I like Max,

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Speaker 3: and I like Max the longer the fight goes. I

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Speaker 3: may even consider live betting him here after round two,

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Speaker 3: after round three, because he should continue to build and

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Speaker 3: make adjustments the longer the fight goes, and I anythink

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Speaker 3: Dustin in his late thirties just doesn't have the ability

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Speaker 3: it's to say, in his style for twenty five minutes anymore.

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Speaker 3: I think will be competitive throughout the first fifteen, but

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Speaker 3: I think Max pulls away down the stretch in the

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Speaker 3: championship round, so Billy, we're aligned on this fight. Want

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Speaker 3: to hear your thoughts though, any analysis that you might

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Speaker 3: have that may differ from my own. And then also

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Speaker 3: with regard to the total that goes to decision prop,

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Speaker 3: I do show slight value on the over or goes

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Speaker 3: to decision. I think I make that line about minus

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Speaker 3: one seventy. I'm more interested in playing Holloway than I

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Speaker 3: am in playing the gtt prop though, just because of

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Speaker 3: the pace that this fight is likely to take place at,

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Speaker 3: I think Dustin has probably no interest in going out

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Speaker 3: with anything but a war in his final fight. So

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Speaker 3: give me your thoughts on Holloway and then also the

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Speaker 3: total on this fight as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I lean into the under on that for some

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Speaker 1: of the reasons you mentioned, Like there's a pretty non

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Speaker 1: zero chance that one or both of them does the

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Speaker 1: point to the center of the cage thing in the

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Speaker 1: first second of the fight right, Like they might not

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Speaker 1: even wait till later on, which doesn't mean they'll just

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Speaker 1: stand there the whole time, but like we could see

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Speaker 1: that multiple times in this fight. I'm pretty sure if

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Speaker 1: either guy feels like they're losing down the stretch, they're

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Speaker 1: just gonna slug too. And probably get themselves knocked out.

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Speaker 1: Like there's there's a lot of you know, outside the

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Speaker 1: normal handicapping factors. I think you got to look at

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Speaker 1: for the total here. I've been on Holloway since last week,

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Speaker 1: and I have incorrectly assumed this whole time that we

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Speaker 1: would eventually get a better price on him, you know,

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Speaker 1: like this is Poier's retirement fight.

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Speaker 4: He's very popular. I thought there would just be a.

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Speaker 1: Ton of casual money coming in on Poier. Obviously that

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Speaker 1: has proved wrong, and you're kind of getting some worse

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Speaker 1: prices on Max right now, which I don't love. I

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Speaker 1: think there's still a chance that at six seven pm

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Speaker 1: tomorrow we start seeing a bunch of money come in

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Speaker 1: on Poier, a bunch of parlay money, Like maybe Drake

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Speaker 1: puts half a million dustin here and pushes the line

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Speaker 1: down for the rest of us. None of that would

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Speaker 1: shock me, So I'm actually not betting this one as

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Speaker 1: it stands now. I think I'll still come in with

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Speaker 1: a Holloway bat even if the price doesn't get better.

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Speaker 1: But I'm trying to get as greedy as I can

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Speaker 1: and hope we'll get a better line on that. Also

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Speaker 1: Holloway by knockout, I think is an interesting take just

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Speaker 1: because Poyer, as you alluded to, we'll probably try to

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Speaker 1: go out on his shield. The only thing I would

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Speaker 1: say about the grappling that you mentioned is Poyer probably

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Speaker 1: gives at least one round here trying to jump a

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Speaker 1: guillotine at some point. He's never hit one in his career.

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Speaker 1: He loves it for some reason, despite it being the

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Speaker 1: dumbest submission in the world that no one should ever.

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Speaker 4: Try to do. He just loves it.

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Speaker 1: He's gonna jump at least one, and maybe he jumps

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Speaker 1: one early and around and gives a way around or two,

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Speaker 1: so that pushes me a little bit more towards Holloway.

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Speaker 1: It would not shock me to see him try like

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Speaker 1: three or four in this fight, just for the sake

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Speaker 1: of the meme or the bit or whatever, because what

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Speaker 1: else are you doing when you're going out at the

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Speaker 1: granddaddy of the mall, the Smoothie King Center and New Orleans.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's the story.

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Speaker 3: Last chance to pull a guillotine it. He did it

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Speaker 3: well like seven different times against Ben Watts. Antony and

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Speaker 3: his corner kept yelling at him to stop doing it.

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Speaker 3: Didn't do it against Islam. He resisted all urges to

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Speaker 3: do it against Islam. I feel like he has to

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Speaker 3: do it one more time in his final fight, right.

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Speaker 3: He just loves doing it too much. So yeah, over

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Speaker 3: over half a guillotine attempt from Gustin Toyert. Maybe the

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Speaker 3: walk of this card. Let's move on to a fight

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Speaker 3: of the night though, Palo Costa plus one ninety five.

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Speaker 3: I'm trying to find out whether he did weigh in

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Speaker 3: already this morning and actually confirm this fight is taking place.

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Speaker 3: So Costa has not weighed in yet. Coppolov has weighed in.

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Speaker 3: He hit the one hundred eighty five pound mark, Costa

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Speaker 3: coming in about plus two hundred coppole off around minus

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Speaker 3: two thirty in the middleweight division, assuming that this fight

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Speaker 3: takes place, fight is about minus one sixty to go

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Speaker 3: to a decision, plus one thirty to end inside the distance.

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Speaker 3: We're both interested in Costa here, but in different directions.

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Speaker 3: I think you like him. I'm more interested in waiting live.

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Speaker 3: If I do have a pre fight ticket on Costa,

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Speaker 3: I want him by decision at plus four to fifty.

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Speaker 3: But I'm gonna wait live, probably because we have seen

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Speaker 3: Kappoloff a lot start fast and then fade the longer

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Speaker 3: his fights go. Now it's something that he may have

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Speaker 3: fixed because he did finish Chris Curtis in the third

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Speaker 3: round four to fifty nine to round three in his

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Speaker 3: last fight. The cardio did seem like it got a

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Speaker 3: little bit better in that matchup, but right before that

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Speaker 3: split decision with Cazer Almeida a number of losses where

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Speaker 3: he was leading early and then ended up giving the

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Speaker 3: fight away in the second third rounds. He is the

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Speaker 3: more efficient striker by the numbers, outlanding opponents by about

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Speaker 3: a half a strike per minute, Costa getting outlanded by

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Speaker 3: zero point six strikes per minute. But as I said,

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Speaker 3: Costa can maintain high volume. Be landed about one hundred

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Speaker 3: and sixty strikes against Sean Strickland across five rounds, one

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Speaker 3: hundred and sixty against marvinventory five rounds, one hundred and

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Speaker 3: eighteen against jol Romero. I think in an extended fight,

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Speaker 3: Costa going to be competitive on volume could ultimately steal

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Speaker 3: a decision. So Costa by decision of plus four to

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Speaker 3: fifty and then live after round one is my approach. Billy,

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Speaker 3: I think you like him on the money line pre fights,

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Speaker 3: where do you like that down to? And then you

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Speaker 3: also like Costa a land at least one takedown. What's

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Speaker 3: your price target on that too?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, before I get into that, I thought for sure

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Speaker 1: you're going to say this fight is minus one sixty

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Speaker 1: to actually happen, when you were saying it's minus one

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Speaker 1: sixty to go to a decision as you were setting

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Speaker 1: now one up.

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Speaker 3: But I'd say it's plus one sixty to happen right

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Speaker 3: now considering cost hasn't weigh in.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, as he said in the past,

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Speaker 1: that's your personal problem. If he doesn't make weight, he

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Speaker 1: doesn't care, that's that's how nea to take the fight

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Speaker 1: or not. So there's a couple elements. Says Costa's back

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Speaker 1: is clearly against the wall. He's one in four in

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Speaker 1: his last five. His last six or seven opponents have

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Speaker 1: all been former champions or title challengers, and for the

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Speaker 1: most part, he hasn't really gone out there trying to

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Speaker 1: win fights. His goal number one, like goal number one,

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Speaker 1: has been to go out there and have a good time, right,

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Speaker 1: and then goal number two is to win the fight.

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Speaker 1: I am banking a little bit on him reversing that

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Speaker 1: and realizing like, hey, you got to win some of them, right.

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Speaker 1: You can be the silly guy on Twitter all you want,

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Speaker 1: and that's great, but like, you gotta win at least occasionally,

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Speaker 1: or people are gonna stop caring and stop being interested

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Speaker 1: to pay you to do that. If he does come

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Speaker 1: out and do that, you mentioned the volume.

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Speaker 4: I like that. He's just so much bigger and stronger

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Speaker 4: than Hopy Love. Again.

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Speaker 1: He might missweight by seven pounds here and just be like,

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Speaker 1: screw it, I'm gonna do it anyway. So I think

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Speaker 1: you can get some bully takedowns. We've seen him do

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Speaker 1: that in the past. The Luke Rockold fight was a

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Speaker 1: really good example Lander to takedown on Marvin Victory, which

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Speaker 1: is pretty hard to do.

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Speaker 4: I think the skills.

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Speaker 1: Are there more than he uses them, which makes sense

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Speaker 1: because when you come out and start to a bunch

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Speaker 1: of people for your first four or five fights, you're like, oh,

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Speaker 1: I'm you know, the best striker ever. I don't need

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Speaker 1: to worry about that base that I have. So if

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Speaker 1: he comes out and uses that, I think that correlates

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Speaker 1: pretty nicely with him winning the fight, even if he

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Speaker 1: doesn't grapple him to death, but mix some takedowns and

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Speaker 1: make copy loof worry about it.

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Speaker 4: You know, I can.

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Speaker 1: Carry his weight a little bit to attack that cardio

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Speaker 1: as you talked about. That is plus two hundred the

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Speaker 1: last I looked him just to get a takedown I

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Speaker 1: put in our sheet. I wanted his money line and

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Speaker 1: him to get a takedown as separate bets. I think

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Speaker 1: I might just SGP those two together, because obviously I

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Speaker 1: thought there'd be more correlation by the books built in there.

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Speaker 1: But it's plus five seventy five with a DraftKings SGP

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Speaker 1: for both those things to happen, and that seems like

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Speaker 1: they should correlate much more than that, right, Like, that's

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Speaker 1: pretty much just the mathematical odds of those two things

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Speaker 1: happening at market price, where you'd think they'd be sharp

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Speaker 1: enough to say, like, if he gets a takedown, he's

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Speaker 1: also more likely to win, probably how I'm attacking it now,

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Speaker 1: unless we get some huge line movement on either way.

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Speaker 1: Just it doesn't make sense to me how they've priced

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Speaker 1: those together. So I'd rather just take a little swing

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Speaker 1: and then if and when this fight doesn't happen, I've

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Speaker 1: only got a quarter unit out there on a long

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Speaker 1: shot sprinkle instead of them holding my money until the

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Speaker 1: fight happens and then refunding it like after the event,

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Speaker 1: because books are really annoying about that, where they'll cancel

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Speaker 1: a fight on Thursday and not give you your money

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Speaker 1: back until the fight was supposed to happen. So we've

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Speaker 1: also gotten that factor built into it. I think that's

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Speaker 1: what I'm doing now. But yeah, I mean check for

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Speaker 1: my full card tomorrow, which I'll tweet out if and

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Speaker 1: when we have something approaching confirmation that this fight will happen.

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Speaker 3: Holocausta has just hit weight at one hundred and eighty

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Speaker 3: five pounds. We will see whether he's able to rehydrate

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Speaker 3: overnight and actually make it to the fight in time,

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Speaker 3: whether he chugs any bottles of wine tonight or still

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Speaker 3: hung over before the fight like he did supposedly against Izzy. Yeah. Best,

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Speaker 3: maybe maybe the best all time hindsight excuse for why

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Speaker 3: a guy lost the fight, ever, not being able to

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Speaker 3: deciding that the method would be the chrug a bottle

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Speaker 3: of wine.

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Speaker 4: We do believe it. It's everybody else excuse exactly what

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Speaker 4: he did.

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Speaker 1: Usually you hear those and you're like, yeah, okay, sure

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Speaker 1: you did buddy with KSA. You're like, yeah, no, you

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Speaker 1: probably did. I expect that to have been what happened.

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Speaker 1: Why wouldn't you still.

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Speaker 3: Want to know what was in Otma is Zatar's brother's

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Speaker 3: bag that he brought to the hotel, and I'll be Dobby.

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Speaker 3: That remains the biggest mystery I think from pre fight

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Speaker 3: post fight excuses in recent years. Let's move on, though,

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Speaker 3: to our favorite underdogs on this card. We've got a

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Speaker 3: few that we're targeting, a bunch of other fights I

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Speaker 3: want to talk about just because I think there's dog

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Speaker 3: value even if I'm not necessarily playing them. It could

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Speaker 3: be a spot to potentially pass on the favorite, or

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Speaker 3: at least be a little risk averse, maybe take some

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Speaker 3: shots from a DFS perspective. But my favorite underdog one

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Speaker 3: I will be betting on this card is Marvin Vittori

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Speaker 3: at about plus one eighty five and then also plus

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Speaker 3: two to sixty by decision against Brendan Allen. Marvin the

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Speaker 3: underdog in a fight that is heavily juiced to go

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Speaker 3: to a decision minus two sixty two GTD. Allen is

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Speaker 3: more of a submission threat, and when his fights extend,

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Speaker 3: his game does tend to fall apart, also a fast starter,

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Speaker 3: and then his cardio tends to fade in rounds two

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Speaker 3: in rounds three as well. We often talk about with

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Speaker 3: Brendon Allen able to get the takedowns, able to get

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Speaker 3: to good positions, but then does not prioritize control or positioning.

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Speaker 3: He tends to go for submissions, falls off going for them,

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Speaker 3: and then puts himself in a bad position to end

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Speaker 3: the round. I think it's very possible that Alan could

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Speaker 3: initiate a take down here, get on top, go for

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Speaker 3: a submission, and then Victory switches and gets on top

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Speaker 3: of him. You look at the control rate career for

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Speaker 3: clinch grappling time in the UFC, Vittoria's controlled seventy six

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Speaker 3: percent of grappling positions. Alan just fifty five percent control rate. Granted,

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Speaker 3: he has faced more grapplers I think, compared to Victory,

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Speaker 3: more guys have tried to grapple him, more grappling back

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Speaker 3: and forth grappling fights, But overall Alan does tend to

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Speaker 3: create grappling scrambles and then get the worst of them

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Speaker 3: at times because he's going for a submission and trying

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Speaker 3: to finish the fight rather than winning minutes, So I

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Speaker 3: do think Vittori is the better minute winner here, not

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Speaker 3: only in terms of the grappling potentially and holding position,

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Speaker 3: but also in terms of strike volume. I just think

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Speaker 3: he's likelier to win rounds two and three than he

294
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Speaker 3: is to win round one. So bit pre fight plus

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Speaker 3: one eighty five and then by decision plus two to sixty.

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Speaker 3: I bet those down to about plus one forty five

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Speaker 3: and plus two twenty five, and then live after round

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Speaker 3: one I'll be targeting Marvin Vittori as well. Billy, what

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Speaker 3: bets do you like on this fight? Just victory, money line?

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Speaker 3: Any other props for you? And then do you like

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Speaker 3: them on the live line?

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Speaker 4: Two? Yeah, I think probably just the money line.

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Speaker 1: The good news for you is that you got, assuming

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Speaker 1: you bout it at plus one eighty five when you

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Speaker 1: put that on our sheet, you got some solid CLV.

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Speaker 1: The bad news is even the plus one eighty five's

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Speaker 1: are gone. After Victoria opened at plus two hundred earlier

308
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Speaker 1: this week. Now I think plus one sixty five by

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Speaker 1: the time you listen to it. Who knows if those

310
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Speaker 1: will even be there, which is a pretty strong indicator

311
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Speaker 1: of the sharp side of this fight. I'm kicking myself

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Speaker 1: for not making that like a luck Ratings fight and

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Speaker 1: taking it there. Marvin Victoria has never been submitted. He's

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Speaker 1: fought some good grapplers, like it's been a while, but

315
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Speaker 1: never been submitted. Usually very hard to take down. Jared Cannon,

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Speaker 1: you are getting four on him was kind of weird,

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Speaker 1: but outside of that, really never been a guy who's

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Speaker 1: been controlled on the ground much. And as you pointed

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Speaker 1: out Brendan Allen, it's submission or bust for him. He

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Speaker 1: doesn't win minutes or beat you up so much with

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Speaker 1: the grappling. He's just very good at snatching defeat from

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Speaker 1: the jaws of victory. Brendan Allen is like skills wise,

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Speaker 1: ability wise, he should probably be like a top five

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Speaker 1: ish or so middleweight right now, but he just manages

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Speaker 1: to not win fights that he should, Like, I don't

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Speaker 1: know a better way to put it, Like, there's just options.

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Speaker 1: Even I thought even against Hernandez, he had a shot

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Speaker 1: to out grapple him, but just didn't do the things

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Speaker 1: he needed to do to take the most obvious path

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Speaker 1: of victory there. So when you factor that in and

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Speaker 1: the submission defense and the cardio and output down the

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Speaker 1: stretch pretty easy to get there on vctory. I think

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Speaker 1: i'd take him to like plus one fifty pre fight,

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Speaker 1: and then after that just hold out for live or

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Speaker 1: victory by decision or round three slash decision or SGPS

336
00:15:50,720 --> 00:15:53,480
Speaker 1: with over half around. You know, any of those iterations

337
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Speaker 1: of this fight going long and Victori doing better as

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Speaker 1: it goes.

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Speaker 3: Long, well that let's speak talk about another fight, but

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Speaker 3: it could be good. From the live betting perspective, I

341
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Speaker 3: certainly think it is Benisius oliver Era against Kyler Phillips.

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Speaker 3: Phillips often wins round one. He's a very consistently fast starter,

343
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Speaker 3: very explosive in the first round, but I think Vansius

344
00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:17,240
Speaker 3: Olivera clearly has the cardio advantage. Phillips time and time

345
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Speaker 3: again tends to fade after the opening round. So I

346
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Speaker 3: projected Phillips as a pre fight favorite minus one oh five,

347
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Speaker 3: but I do like lock dog live after round one,

348
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Speaker 3: So Phillips plus one thirty five pre fight, then try

349
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Speaker 3: to get a live ticket on Olivera live after round one.

350
00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:36,720
Speaker 3: Also project this fight to go to a decision more

351
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Speaker 3: often than the market suggests, but I think it could

352
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Speaker 3: be a very high paced, aggressive fight. Between these two,

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Speaker 3: and with the way Phillips fades down the stretch, I

354
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Speaker 3: think there's a chance that Oliver could finish him late

355
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Speaker 3: in round three or potentially round two as well. So

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Speaker 3: I know you like olivera what prist target are you

357
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Speaker 3: looking for pre fight? And I'd imagine you would echo

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Speaker 3: my live thoughts here as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely on the live thoughts. It's one of those

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00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:01,840
Speaker 1: where Phillips probably needs to grapple here. So if he

361
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Speaker 1: either fails on takedowns or get some but doesn't do

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00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:08,760
Speaker 1: a ton with him doesn't rack up some damage, that's

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Speaker 1: probably the time to jump in live. I'll probably have

364
00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:13,720
Speaker 1: like half a unit on Oliver pre fight. I think

365
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Speaker 1: the price has gotten better on him throughout the week

366
00:17:16,760 --> 00:17:19,440
Speaker 1: last I look, yes, moved a little bit towards Phillips.

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Speaker 1: It we can get inside of minus one fifty on lowdog.

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Speaker 1: I think that's probably about right. He's done well in

369
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Speaker 1: similar stylistic matchups in the past. It's a bit of

370
00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:31,400
Speaker 1: a step up, but not as much as I initially

371
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Speaker 1: assumed because he fought. But I think Bernardo Soapi is

372
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Speaker 1: actually awesome, even though that was Soapi's debut when he

373
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Speaker 1: fought lowdok. They've bought Ricky Simone in there, which you know,

374
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Speaker 1: probably not quite Kyler Phillips level, and he fall aside

375
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Speaker 1: near markt mdoff, so like some tough guys in there,

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00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:51,600
Speaker 1: and has passed all the grappling tests against them. Think

377
00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:53,520
Speaker 1: he does the same against Phillips. I think he might

378
00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:55,960
Speaker 1: just actually be that good where we look back two

379
00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:57,600
Speaker 1: years from now and say we can't believe we got

380
00:17:57,680 --> 00:18:00,280
Speaker 1: minus one forty on him against a you know, ten

381
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Speaker 1: to twelfth rank fighter in this division. So yeah, any

382
00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:06,399
Speaker 1: version of look dog, I'm kind of okay with the

383
00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:08,320
Speaker 1: live is a little bit touchy in terms of like

384
00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:10,160
Speaker 1: when you get that price that it's going to be better,

385
00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:11,959
Speaker 1: because I don't I don't think the better price will

386
00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:12,880
Speaker 1: be there for very long.

387
00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:14,919
Speaker 4: I think once it turns, it's going to turn in

388
00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:16,200
Speaker 4: a hurry, if that makes sense.

389
00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:19,040
Speaker 3: A few big underdogs in this car that we want

390
00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:22,680
Speaker 3: to mention first being Robert Valentin about plus four hundred

391
00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:25,600
Speaker 3: or higher against the Tiba Gotier. Gotier is just twenty

392
00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:28,399
Speaker 3: two years old, still pretty green, but seven years younger

393
00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:32,040
Speaker 3: elite athlete looks like a super prospect in this division.

394
00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:34,960
Speaker 3: Potentially two is taller five into each advantage. But Valentin

395
00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:38,280
Speaker 3: has faced two rapplers thus far in the UFC basically

396
00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:41,560
Speaker 3: had no chance given his style, finally going to get

397
00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:44,160
Speaker 3: the ability to strike this one out. His KO prop

398
00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:47,040
Speaker 3: is about twelve to one, fourteen to one. Fight his

399
00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:50,160
Speaker 3: minus seven fifty to end inside the distance. I don't

400
00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:54,280
Speaker 3: think you could be super wrong poking Valentine here over

401
00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:56,440
Speaker 3: plus four hundred. I make his money line closer to

402
00:18:56,480 --> 00:18:59,680
Speaker 3: plus three hundred KO prop alve to one, ten to one.

403
00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:03,880
Speaker 3: I think those are certainly acceptable as well. Go Tier

404
00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:07,120
Speaker 3: probably knocks him out. But Billy any any interest at

405
00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:09,639
Speaker 3: all in taking Robert Valentin on the money line this weekend.

406
00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:12,200
Speaker 4: I had that thought earlier in the week.

407
00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:14,879
Speaker 1: The problem with saying he'll finally get to strike it

408
00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:17,080
Speaker 1: out is he just doesn't have the physical tools that

409
00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:20,440
Speaker 1: Gotia has to strike it out. Like, honestly, if I'm Valentine,

410
00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:22,520
Speaker 1: he if he gets a takedown here, he might look

411
00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:24,240
Speaker 1: like a minus five hundred favorite.

412
00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:26,840
Speaker 4: I don't know that we know anything about Goate is grappling.

413
00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:29,560
Speaker 1: I wrote him up for the Contender series and was like,

414
00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:32,199
Speaker 1: he's he's got one thing he does well. He just

415
00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:35,840
Speaker 1: does it super super well. And the physical advantages are

416
00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:39,560
Speaker 1: obviously massive, so I don't love it. I think like,

417
00:19:39,600 --> 00:19:41,600
Speaker 1: if you wanted to get really silly and go Valentine

418
00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:44,520
Speaker 1: by submission, that's probably his clearest path. You get a

419
00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:47,120
Speaker 1: take down, you know, go tier turns his back trying

420
00:19:47,119 --> 00:19:49,119
Speaker 1: to get up, something like that. That's probably how I

421
00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:51,520
Speaker 1: would play it, because you really can't be wrong at

422
00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:53,240
Speaker 1: you know, a twenty to one submission prop.

423
00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:54,480
Speaker 4: I get it.

424
00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:57,480
Speaker 1: I'm leaning that way, but I'm probably abstaining myself.

425
00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:01,800
Speaker 3: Another big underdog, Jackson McVeigh, line is actually moving in

426
00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:04,200
Speaker 3: on McVeigh. He was closer to plus five hundred a

427
00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:07,160
Speaker 3: couple days ago, moving closer to plus four hundred now.

428
00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:10,080
Speaker 3: I make his line about plus three thirteen. In his

429
00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:12,800
Speaker 3: UFCA debut against Bruno for HERA, he was supposed to

430
00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:16,199
Speaker 3: fight Sidriguez Zumas, who I think pulled out of separate fights.

431
00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:18,960
Speaker 3: Neither of these guys, though, have seen the scorecards in

432
00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:22,880
Speaker 3: their pro careers. McVeigh does have one decision as an amateur,

433
00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:26,040
Speaker 3: but this fight is minus I think minus seventeen fifty

434
00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:29,520
Speaker 3: minus fourteen hundred minus fourteen hundred to end inside the distance,

435
00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:31,719
Speaker 3: so under one and a half is used to minus

436
00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:35,640
Speaker 3: one minus two forty. Somebody is likely to finish this fight.

437
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:38,560
Speaker 3: It is obviously likely to be Bruno for hera, but

438
00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:42,280
Speaker 3: considering the high variance nature, Billy any interest on McVeigh

439
00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:44,960
Speaker 3: four to one, McVeigh inside the distance five to one,

440
00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:46,640
Speaker 3: or any other bets on this fight.

441
00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:49,520
Speaker 1: No, I can't get there because Fade actually can grapple

442
00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:52,440
Speaker 1: like he was a three time national judo champion, which

443
00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:54,879
Speaker 1: people forget about. But I think if he gets in trouble,

444
00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:58,080
Speaker 1: he can bust that out pretty much at any point

445
00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:00,000
Speaker 1: and kind of take a pause and win the fight

446
00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:03,199
Speaker 1: that way. Tremendous DFS fight, though everyone's gonna be on

447
00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:06,520
Speaker 1: FDA for a good reason. If you're not playing Veda,

448
00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:10,959
Speaker 1: you have to play McVeigh because anything other than FADA

449
00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:15,560
Speaker 1: domination means McVay easily outscores his salary. So it's a

450
00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:18,520
Speaker 1: fun like strategy question for DFS where I don't I

451
00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:20,640
Speaker 1: don't really like mcvay's odds, but I will have some

452
00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:23,280
Speaker 1: of him because you're just getting massive leverage on the

453
00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:25,920
Speaker 1: field by doing that. So that's the way I'm approaching

454
00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:29,400
Speaker 1: my McVeigh exposure here is just through being over the field.

455
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:32,640
Speaker 1: On DFS and the same thing with another fighter you're

456
00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:34,600
Speaker 1: gonna we're gonna talk about or no, we don't have

457
00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:37,199
Speaker 1: this one dou Latov Fugit where you kind of have

458
00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:39,200
Speaker 1: to play one or the other because either Doulatov gets

459
00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:41,879
Speaker 1: a massive score or if it extends, that means Fugit

460
00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:44,719
Speaker 1: is going to easily outperform a salary. So that's what

461
00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:46,679
Speaker 1: I'm doing with these long underdogs. I know you have

462
00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 1: bets on a couple of them, or considering bets on

463
00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:52,080
Speaker 1: a couple of them, but that's that's my approach this time.

464
00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:55,200
Speaker 3: Let's go to your second of two underdogs and one

465
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:57,880
Speaker 3: of my top props as we move from our underdog

466
00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:01,840
Speaker 3: section into our prop section, Carly g d versus Nicole Kalieri.

467
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:05,080
Speaker 3: The first fight on the card Women's flyweight division. Women's

468
00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:08,080
Speaker 3: flyweights typically go to a decision about a sixty eight

469
00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:12,000
Speaker 3: percent clip minus two twelve implied. I am closer to

470
00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:15,199
Speaker 3: seventy five percent on this fight. Judas coming off of

471
00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:17,640
Speaker 3: a head kick win in her last fight, I think

472
00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:21,159
Speaker 3: is giving us value here potentially on the GTD. And

473
00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:24,280
Speaker 3: you like this fight from the Caliari perspective, so you

474
00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:27,320
Speaker 3: expect it to be more competitive than the line suggests,

475
00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:30,720
Speaker 3: which to me indicates that this fight is likelier to

476
00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:33,119
Speaker 3: go all fifteen minutes. So I like the GTD here

477
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:35,000
Speaker 3: up to minus two to fifty. I also do show

478
00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:39,080
Speaker 3: value on the favorite Carly Judas by decision to minus

479
00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:43,280
Speaker 3: one fifteen button. Given your thoughts on Kalliari, I certainly

480
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:47,520
Speaker 3: prefer the GTD prop having equity on either woman winning

481
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:50,520
Speaker 3: by decisions. So to give me your thoughts on Callieri. Here,

482
00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:52,920
Speaker 3: she is three inches shorter, She's at a four inch

483
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:55,760
Speaker 3: reach discrepancy. Do you think she overcomes that with grappling?

484
00:22:56,760 --> 00:22:58,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, that is one hundred percent of the logic here.

485
00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:01,399
Speaker 1: She has five takedown in her two fights between the

486
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:05,560
Speaker 1: Contender Series and the UFC, so about more than one

487
00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:08,439
Speaker 1: per round. Because one of her fights ended early. She

488
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:12,960
Speaker 1: landed three takedowns on Ernesta Kharakati, Kara Katy took down Judy,

489
00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:14,919
Speaker 1: so like we can kind of see, not that it

490
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:17,080
Speaker 1: always works that way, but in terms of grappling levels

491
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 1: where it's at. I felt more confident in the Caliari

492
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:22,639
Speaker 1: pick when I saw that you were betting it to

493
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:25,240
Speaker 1: go to a decision, because you know the underdog in

494
00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:26,840
Speaker 1: a fight we expect to go to a decision.

495
00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:29,560
Speaker 4: If you think the minus one ninety is of value.

496
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 1: Making the true price north of minus two hundred the

497
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:35,400
Speaker 1: underdog even a stronger value. Also worth pointing out here,

498
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:38,760
Speaker 1: we're gonna get some weird decisions, especially in early fights.

499
00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:40,680
Speaker 1: You know, we don't go to Louisiana a lot. There's

500
00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 1: gonna be some local judges that we don't know. Usually

501
00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:46,159
Speaker 1: the local judges worked the first handful of fights on

502
00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:48,400
Speaker 1: the card. Like, it's not gonna be some dude you've

503
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:50,960
Speaker 1: never heard of in the Max Hollowy, Dustin Ployee. A

504
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:52,640
Speaker 1: fight that's gonna be a bunch of guys you've heard

505
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 1: of and probably also don't think are very good judges.

506
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 4: But that's a different story.

507
00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 1: So when you're when you're banking on some of these

508
00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:01,080
Speaker 1: long underdogs, the ones early on the card that you

509
00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:03,600
Speaker 1: think are going to go to a decision, who knows, man,

510
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 1: Like these core cards could be all over the place.

511
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:08,720
Speaker 1: I was looking at the fight to go to a

512
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:11,240
Speaker 1: split decision. The only book I could find it out

513
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:13,440
Speaker 1: was DraftKings, and it's plus three eighty, so they're hip

514
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 1: to that like that, I'm not betting plus three eighty

515
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 1: to go to a split on any fight ever, But

516
00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:20,399
Speaker 1: this one's got a shot at going too a split. Like,

517
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:22,399
Speaker 1: all it takes is one judge he wasn't paying attention

518
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 1: or doesn't know the rules, or it's just some boxing

519
00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:28,119
Speaker 1: guy they rolled out for that to happen. If you

520
00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:30,160
Speaker 1: want a fun sprinkle, it makes a lot of sense.

521
00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:32,440
Speaker 1: It's a hilarious thing to root for if you've ever

522
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:35,240
Speaker 1: swept one of those bets, because somebody starts doing well

523
00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 1: and you root for the other person they start doing like,

524
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:38,280
Speaker 1: oh no, no, I need you to come back.

525
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 4: It's fun.

526
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:42,480
Speaker 1: Like it's not financial advice, but like if you want

527
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:46,000
Speaker 1: to add some excitement and kind of play along with

528
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:47,879
Speaker 1: all of our actual bets, right because you need it

529
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:50,159
Speaker 1: to go to a decision to be a split, you

530
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:52,159
Speaker 1: need the underdogged over perform her line for it to

531
00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:54,240
Speaker 1: be a split. I think that's just a fun way

532
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:56,600
Speaker 1: to have some action on a fight that like is

533
00:24:56,640 --> 00:25:00,320
Speaker 1: pretty hard to care about if we're all being honest, to.

534
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 3: Pull up judases or sorry, Kalliari's point spread Kalieri plus

535
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:05,840
Speaker 3: three and a half even money, That seems like a

536
00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:06,240
Speaker 3: good bet.

537
00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:08,720
Speaker 1: Right they know, but but they know, right, like it

538
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 1: should be even money. I don't think that's it's not

539
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 1: a bad bet. But when her money line is as

540
00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:15,920
Speaker 1: high as plus two seventy, now just take the money

541
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:19,160
Speaker 1: line like it's not I also think, I will say,

542
00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:22,440
Speaker 1: on a slightly more serious note, Judas I believe has

543
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:24,719
Speaker 1: much more finishing upside. She throws a lot of volume,

544
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:27,680
Speaker 1: obviously has some power. If Kyllieri wins, is just gonna

545
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 1: be like kind of a semi boring grappling match. Maybe

546
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:32,720
Speaker 1: she pulls off a submission, probably not so that that

547
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 1: takes some of the value out of the point spread

548
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:38,240
Speaker 1: on the Kalliari side, because like she's it's gonna be

549
00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:40,520
Speaker 1: pretty clear when she's winning rounds if she's dominating from

550
00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 1: the top.

551
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:43,879
Speaker 4: I think, so, you know, I get it.

552
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:46,880
Speaker 1: But like they've done much better at pricing these point

553
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 1: spreads than they did when they first came out, because

554
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:50,480
Speaker 1: we were cleaning up on those for a few months

555
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:52,280
Speaker 1: in there. But they've they've sorted it out.

556
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 3: A couple of you know, let's let's go to uh,

557
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:58,800
Speaker 3: your top prop and then we'll we'll backtrack to some

558
00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:02,120
Speaker 3: other totals. Let's talk about Kevin Holland fight. Kevin Holland

559
00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:04,920
Speaker 3: against Daney Rodriguez. Holland coming in here got as big

560
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:08,160
Speaker 3: of a favorite as we've really ever seen him against

561
00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 3: other rank talent. But he should have Danie Rodriguez covered

562
00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 3: everywhere in this matchup. Six years younger, two inches taller,

563
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:18,439
Speaker 3: seven inch reach advantages. As we always discuss Billy, there

564
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 3: is a big difference between welterweight Kevin Holland and middleweight

565
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:25,360
Speaker 3: Kevin Holland. And this is welterweight Kevin Holland, who supposedly

566
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:29,480
Speaker 3: had no trouble making the weight limit this morning, came

567
00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 3: in right near the start of the session weight and fine.

568
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:35,879
Speaker 3: I projected Holland around minus six point fifty on the

569
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:38,480
Speaker 3: money line. I like him as a parlay piece for

570
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,840
Speaker 3: this card on Saturday. I just think Daniel Rodriguez is

571
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:44,080
Speaker 3: pasted it at this point of his career. I think

572
00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:47,560
Speaker 3: Holland is going to look twice as fast as he does.

573
00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:50,639
Speaker 3: Just the question is, you know how Holland gets it

574
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:53,240
Speaker 3: done because the rod is pretty durable. I think Holland

575
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 3: could overwhelm him with speed, but Holland likes to play

576
00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:57,879
Speaker 3: around and put it on a show too, and you

577
00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:00,800
Speaker 3: know he might just beat up d Rod And play

578
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:04,119
Speaker 3: around and you know, do some showmanship stuff across fifteen minutes,

579
00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:06,720
Speaker 3: So you do like Holland to win the fight inside

580
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:10,520
Speaker 3: the distance. I difficulty getting my projected number there. I

581
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:14,760
Speaker 3: basically have his like decisions mission knockout equity all right

582
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:17,360
Speaker 3: around a third. You know, all three lines are all

583
00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:20,200
Speaker 3: like a round plus two forty ish for me. That's

584
00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:23,440
Speaker 3: roughly where the market has it too. So it's almost

585
00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:26,720
Speaker 3: like Holland, however, he wants it in this matchup. You

586
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:28,840
Speaker 3: like him to finish this fight, though, where would you

587
00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:29,359
Speaker 3: bet that up to?

588
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:30,080
Speaker 4: I do?

589
00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 1: He's finished five of six at welterweight, five of a

590
00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:36,159
Speaker 1: six welterweight wins, I should say so, just the power

591
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:39,320
Speaker 1: just plays up so much better at one seventy. Unfortunately,

592
00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:41,399
Speaker 1: as you alluded to with the money line, like the

593
00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:43,919
Speaker 1: market is caught on to Kevin Holland at welterweight being

594
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:47,679
Speaker 1: an entirely different animal than Kevin Holland at middleweight, So

595
00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:49,480
Speaker 1: you kind of have to take some shots at you know,

596
00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:52,399
Speaker 1: methods or other things, probably take it to like minus

597
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:53,199
Speaker 1: one seventy or so.

598
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:53,960
Speaker 4: Yeah.

599
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:56,000
Speaker 1: The more interesting angle I have here is I think

600
00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:58,800
Speaker 1: d rod is actually more likely to win a decision

601
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:01,600
Speaker 1: if it goes right, like under the assumption that we

602
00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:04,119
Speaker 1: go to a decision, And that's because his volume is

603
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:06,720
Speaker 1: much higher than Holland's. Like you mentioned Holland playing around,

604
00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:09,480
Speaker 1: do you Rode outlands Holland by about three significant strikes

605
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 1: per minute. I don't think they'll be exceptionally significant, but

606
00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:15,119
Speaker 1: he's just going to be doing so much more that

607
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:17,600
Speaker 1: a lot of times that can sway judges in your favor.

608
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 1: So what I'm doing here is I'm betting one unit

609
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:24,399
Speaker 1: on Holland to win inside the distance that's minus one fifty,

610
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:27,200
Speaker 1: and then half a unit on the decision only market

611
00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:29,800
Speaker 1: for d Rod, which gets refunded if either man gets

612
00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:30,199
Speaker 1: a finish.

613
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 4: Kind of I.

614
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:34,199
Speaker 1: Feel like covering most of the likely outcomes here. It

615
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 1: works out to a pretty slight profit, especially if d

616
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:39,480
Speaker 1: Rod gets the decision, because the inside the distance doesn't

617
00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:42,320
Speaker 1: refund But I'm kind of trying to cover the most

618
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:45,720
Speaker 1: likely outcomes on both sides here. Don't feel super great

619
00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:49,600
Speaker 1: about it because, as he pointed out, Kevin Holland isn't enigma, right.

620
00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:51,880
Speaker 1: He might just mess around. He might get some takedowns

621
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 1: and then just stand back up for no reason, but

622
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:57,520
Speaker 1: I think there's an angle there where Rodriguez's.

623
00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,040
Speaker 4: Volume helps him if it does go to a decision.

624
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:01,560
Speaker 3: Let's talk about a couple of totals that I like.

625
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 3: Daniel Zelhuber against Michael Johnson on the main card. I

626
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:07,640
Speaker 3: like this fight to end inside the distance or the

627
00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 3: under two and a half rounds at about minus one

628
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 3: h eight in addition to zel Huber by Ko at

629
00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:15,000
Speaker 3: plus one eighty five. He could end up being a

630
00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:18,200
Speaker 3: relatively low paced, boring decision. But there is a huge

631
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 3: age gap between these two, with thirteen year age gap

632
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:25,160
Speaker 3: zel Huber twenty six, Johnson thirty nine. Zell Hooper also

633
00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:29,840
Speaker 3: three inches collar has a four inch reach advantage. Johnson

634
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 3: has the better data, you know, against better competition, but

635
00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:36,240
Speaker 3: he is old, but plus one point four to minus

636
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:40,320
Speaker 3: zero point four strike differential permittent in favor of Michael Johnson,

637
00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:42,240
Speaker 3: so I think he can be competitive on the minutes.

638
00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 3: He also has some offensive grappling upside. But given the

639
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:49,560
Speaker 3: relative age of these two, the trajectory of their careers,

640
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:54,200
Speaker 3: and then potentially most importantly, zell Huber's ability to use

641
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:58,360
Speaker 3: his link coming forward and Johnson's inability to box going

642
00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:00,760
Speaker 3: off of the back foot. I think xel huber is

643
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:04,480
Speaker 3: a terrible matchup for Michael Johnson. That said, he does

644
00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:09,480
Speaker 3: leave himself open defensively, absolutely capable of getting clipped and

645
00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:12,440
Speaker 3: knocked out himself. So I do want equity on either

646
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:14,760
Speaker 3: to finish the under two and a half two about

647
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:17,920
Speaker 3: minus one thirty five it's currently minus one. Await the

648
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:20,640
Speaker 3: ends inside the distance I would take up to about

649
00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 3: minus one seventy five and xel Huber by knockout I

650
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 3: project around even money. I like that down to plus

651
00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:30,240
Speaker 3: one ten Billy the undertwo and a halves zell huber

652
00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:33,240
Speaker 3: By ko either of those he like any other ways

653
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 3: you consider betting on this five?

654
00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:37,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, I love them both. The wheels got to fall off.

655
00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:38,320
Speaker 4: Michael Johnson.

656
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 1: At some point you mentioned his like statistical data, but

657
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:45,960
Speaker 1: half of that was accrued by beating up Joe Lozan

658
00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:48,520
Speaker 1: in twenty thirteen on Fuel TV or whatever, so like

659
00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:52,280
Speaker 1: that's not super relevant here a dozen years later, and

660
00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:54,320
Speaker 1: if you look at his recent record, like they haven't

661
00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 1: done the thing where they've just fed him to prospects

662
00:30:57,040 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 1: like at all, Like he Foughtetar who that's a weird story.

663
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:04,680
Speaker 1: Darius Flowers Carlos Diego. Faida knocked him out, but Diego

664
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 1: is like close to the same age, right, Like they're

665
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:09,000
Speaker 1: similar in age.

666
00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 4: The last time you.

667
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:14,320
Speaker 1: Fought anyone, I mean, like that good was what Stevie

668
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 1: Ray future PFL champ in like twenty nineteen or tournament winner.

669
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:19,200
Speaker 4: I don't know, I don't follow the PF. All that

670
00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 4: closed And.

671
00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:21,960
Speaker 1: Now they're doing the thing where they feed him to

672
00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:24,320
Speaker 1: a prospect finally, So that's that's about as likely a

673
00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 1: time as ever for the wheels to fall off the

674
00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:29,320
Speaker 1: old guy. So lovezell Huber by knockout or finish or

675
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:32,320
Speaker 1: the under any of that stuff. It's got to happen eventually, right, Like,

676
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:35,800
Speaker 1: dude's been fighting as a professional for twenty years now,

677
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 1: I think, or damn close to it, Like can't do

678
00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:38,760
Speaker 1: that forever?

679
00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:39,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, he is.

680
00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:41,880
Speaker 3: He has a lot of fights, and he's fought everybody

681
00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 3: he fuck could be to thirty three, yeah, thirty double

682
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:51,720
Speaker 3: the number of fights. Zell Huber is seventeen pro fights,

683
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:53,760
Speaker 3: literally like double the more than double the number of

684
00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:57,080
Speaker 3: professional fights. Yeah. Regardless of the thirteen year age gap,

685
00:31:57,080 --> 00:32:00,200
Speaker 3: I think there is a bigger like fight gap in

686
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:02,240
Speaker 3: age years there as well. We'll get to another fight

687
00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:04,920
Speaker 3: in a moment that I think similarly about. But first,

688
00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:08,600
Speaker 3: Marcin and Pratneo against Jimmy Krut in the middleweight division.

689
00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:11,160
Speaker 3: Two bad shins here, but I don't think either guy

690
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 3: carries particularly significant power for the middleweight division. I think

691
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:17,720
Speaker 3: Pragneo's leg kicks are going to cause a problem for Cruit.

692
00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:21,520
Speaker 3: I think Kruit's ability to potentially submit Pragneo on the

693
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:25,160
Speaker 3: mat the likeliest ways this one finishes. And Kruit is

694
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 3: a proactive grappler, attempts six takedowns per five minutes a distance,

695
00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 3: completed about fifty three percent of them in his career,

696
00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:35,680
Speaker 3: and Pragneo does not have particularly good takedown defense, just

697
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:39,320
Speaker 3: a fifty four percent clip of defended takedowns in his career.

698
00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:43,600
Speaker 3: Also control rate cruits sixty seven percent, Pratneo fifteen percent,

699
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 3: So you could see the grappling dominance potentially for Cruit

700
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:50,520
Speaker 3: in the matchup. But Pratneo is the better striker, averaging

701
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:54,640
Speaker 3: about plus two point eight strike differential per minute against

702
00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:58,720
Speaker 3: his opponents Krut minus one point two, So Pratneo should

703
00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 3: have a four strike advantage permit it at distance just

704
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:04,840
Speaker 3: based upon the numbers. He has been submitted by our

705
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:08,080
Speaker 3: arm triangle, though in consecutive losses. I do worry about

706
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:11,560
Speaker 3: group potentially getting him down and submitting them. But overall

707
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:14,280
Speaker 3: middleweight fights go to decision at about a thirty eight

708
00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:18,320
Speaker 3: percent clip plus one sixty implied, I'm closer to forty

709
00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:21,880
Speaker 3: seven percent here, I would bet the GTD to plus

710
00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 3: one twenty five. And then I also like crup By decision.

711
00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:27,239
Speaker 3: I projected that closer to plus two hundred. You can

712
00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 3: get three to one or higher. I like that down

713
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:32,360
Speaker 3: to plus two to fifty. So Crewton Prattneo goes to

714
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:35,640
Speaker 3: decision crup By decision to plus three ten Billy, either

715
00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:36,320
Speaker 3: of those bets he.

716
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:38,160
Speaker 4: Like, not really.

717
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:40,720
Speaker 1: I think Chrip's probably gonna maul him on the ground early.

718
00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:44,120
Speaker 1: The only way I'm betting this one is pracneolive, just

719
00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 1: because Crude has fallen apart and like what feels like

720
00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:49,880
Speaker 1: twenty consecutive fights where he gets a ten eight first.

721
00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:51,720
Speaker 1: He's got I mean, two draws in his last three,

722
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:54,040
Speaker 1: and I believe they were both ten eight first rounds,

723
00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:56,920
Speaker 1: followed by losing the next two and then you know

724
00:33:57,080 --> 00:34:00,200
Speaker 1: later submission losses. Like that's just what he does. So

725
00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:02,560
Speaker 1: I'm not doing anything pre fight here. If he doesn't

726
00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 1: get him out of there after the first round, we

727
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:07,000
Speaker 1: might see, you know, ten to one or better odds

728
00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:09,400
Speaker 1: on Pragneo, which is where I jump in. It wouldn't

729
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 1: have to be ten to one, but I'm saying I

730
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:14,880
Speaker 1: would jump in after the first round.

731
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:18,160
Speaker 3: Yeah it was ten's yeah, you know what, No is

732
00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:21,200
Speaker 3: a ten eight against Blato in round one. It was

733
00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:23,799
Speaker 3: a ten eight against the Menafield in round three. He

734
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:27,120
Speaker 3: actually reversed it. In the Menifield fight, he lost the

735
00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:29,279
Speaker 3: first two rounds and then came back and got a

736
00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:32,399
Speaker 3: ten eight in round three. So no, I do agree

737
00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:34,560
Speaker 3: with you, though, Like I tend to feel like he

738
00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:38,959
Speaker 3: either gets it going, uh you know, and is able

739
00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:41,640
Speaker 3: to maintain it, or Pragnio is going to show the

740
00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:44,759
Speaker 3: ability to get up and keep getting up and then

741
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:47,120
Speaker 3: pick him apart. At this stance, anythink Pragnio is certainly

742
00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:50,400
Speaker 3: the better striker. Just do not trust either of their chins.

743
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:53,360
Speaker 3: So not in love with it either, But I'm going

744
00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:55,760
Speaker 3: with the value of you know, where my model pointed

745
00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:58,560
Speaker 3: me this weekend. But yeah, in general, like not a

746
00:34:58,560 --> 00:35:01,280
Speaker 3: lot of spots, I'm in love with on this card,

747
00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:03,880
Speaker 3: and even as we get to our best bet section,

748
00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 3: unfortunately my best bet has really moved away from the

749
00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:10,279
Speaker 3: price where it opened up. You got Danny Gay and

750
00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 3: your luck ratings earlier this week at about minus one

751
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:16,799
Speaker 3: seventy minus one seventy five, he's all the way up

752
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:20,799
Speaker 3: to minus two twenty five or higher today. I did

753
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:23,279
Speaker 3: project him at minus two to eighty seven in this fight,

754
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:26,319
Speaker 3: I would bet him up to minus two fifty. It

755
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:28,560
Speaker 3: is just getting to a point where it's a little

756
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:31,400
Speaker 3: bit more uncomfortable to bet him. I think in an

757
00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:34,600
Speaker 3: alternative way to play ega this weekend is his double

758
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:38,560
Speaker 3: chance prop his decision or knockout double chance prop at

759
00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:41,480
Speaker 3: minus one eighty five. You see a bunch of submissions

760
00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:44,480
Speaker 3: on his career record, those really all came in his

761
00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:48,400
Speaker 3: regional days pre UFC. He's not a guy who's looking

762
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 3: generally to submit people, and also Protresio Pitbull, I would

763
00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:55,000
Speaker 3: imagine should be able to fend off any potential submission

764
00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:57,840
Speaker 3: attempts to Danny Gay Throsan aside from a club and

765
00:35:57,880 --> 00:36:01,000
Speaker 3: sub where he's basically already unconscious. But even looking at

766
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 3: Egay's recent fights, he beat Sean Woodson on short notice.

767
00:36:04,120 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 3: He's taken several short notice spouts. He was very competitive

768
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:11,160
Speaker 3: with Diego Lopez on short notice, literally hours notice getting

769
00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:13,439
Speaker 3: off of the couch, ended up winning the third round

770
00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:17,280
Speaker 3: of that fight. He's more durable, he carries more power,

771
00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:21,799
Speaker 3: he's taller, he's longer inch longer six inch each advantage.

772
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 3: There's really, you know, nothing that points me to Proturisio

773
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:27,680
Speaker 3: Pitbull in this fight. I thought he looked like a

774
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:32,680
Speaker 3: severely diminished version of himself. In his UFAW against the Aria,

775
00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:36,640
Speaker 3: Rodriguez outstruck seventy to seventeen at distance and really did

776
00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 3: nothing competitive throughout. So Danny Gay is still much closer

777
00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:45,120
Speaker 3: for me to his prime pitbull, seemingly near the end

778
00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:47,399
Speaker 3: of his career. I like e game up to minus

779
00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:50,400
Speaker 3: two fifteen, As I said, the decision or KO line

780
00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:52,680
Speaker 3: I think is fine at minus one and five up

781
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:56,240
Speaker 3: to minus two hundred if you want a slight discount, Billy,

782
00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:58,640
Speaker 3: what was your cutoff price for Danny Gay and then

783
00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:00,440
Speaker 3: any other props he like on this? Do you like

784
00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:02,840
Speaker 3: him to win by knockout? I kind of lean to knockout.

785
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:04,520
Speaker 3: How do you want to play this one?

786
00:37:04,920 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think I'd go much past minus two hundred,

787
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:09,960
Speaker 1: but it's, as I always mentioned, like it's hard when

788
00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:12,239
Speaker 1: you've anchored yourself to a price that's no longer there

789
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 1: to imagine what you would do otherwise. Personally, I'm if

790
00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:17,799
Speaker 1: this gets any further, I'm probably just gonna make an

791
00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:20,840
Speaker 1: arbitrage bet on Pitbull and just not worry about this

792
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:23,560
Speaker 1: fight at all, because it'll be a fairly solid return

793
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:25,640
Speaker 1: if he gets north a plus two hundred.

794
00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:28,399
Speaker 4: Like you, though, I think Pitbull might be just kind

795
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:30,239
Speaker 4: of washed. He he was.

796
00:37:30,160 --> 00:37:32,239
Speaker 1: One and two in his last three fights before the

797
00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:35,480
Speaker 1: UFC against and the win wasn't super impressive or anything

798
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:38,640
Speaker 1: as Jeremy Kennedy, you know, in late in the third round. Cool,

799
00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:42,479
Speaker 1: but yeah, one and two coming in, and he's also

800
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:43,719
Speaker 1: tempted the MMA.

801
00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:44,120
Speaker 4: Gods.

802
00:37:44,160 --> 00:37:45,920
Speaker 1: I don't know if you saw this story. He said,

803
00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 1: when he gets through Dan Egay, he'd like to be

804
00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:52,600
Speaker 1: considered to fight Aaron Pico next week in Saudi Arabia

805
00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:55,359
Speaker 1: or Dubai or wherever, after a boy had pulled out,

806
00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:58,640
Speaker 1: And like that's just the surest way to make sure

807
00:37:58,719 --> 00:38:01,160
Speaker 1: that doesn't happen, right, Like to put that out there

808
00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:03,799
Speaker 1: ahead of time, publicly like you're getting knocked out when

809
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:05,600
Speaker 1: you say that, So I guess that helps the knockout

810
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:10,200
Speaker 1: prop in my mind, at least unofficially. It's a little silly,

811
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:13,439
Speaker 1: but also like it is showing that you're looking past

812
00:38:13,480 --> 00:38:16,120
Speaker 1: the guy in front of you who is heavily favored

813
00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:18,640
Speaker 1: to beat you anyway, which is not something you should do.

814
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:21,719
Speaker 1: Egy should be out there saying after I finish Pitbull,

815
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:23,680
Speaker 1: fly me out there. That would make more sense to me.

816
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:26,720
Speaker 1: I digress. Yeah, I'm very happy to get the price

817
00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:31,160
Speaker 1: I got, like arbitrage or partially arbitrage out it's possible

818
00:38:31,239 --> 00:38:34,200
Speaker 1: this line continues to move even further. I think it

819
00:38:34,320 --> 00:38:36,880
Speaker 1: kind of hasn't stopped moving since Monday. Every time I look,

820
00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:39,520
Speaker 1: it's a little farther. So we'll see what we can get.

821
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:43,080
Speaker 3: Let's go to your best bet. Francisco Prato against Nikolai

822
00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:46,160
Speaker 3: ver Tennikov prota one to three in the UFC is

823
00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:50,080
Speaker 3: only when came over the aforementioned Mana Zatar. I did

824
00:38:50,080 --> 00:38:53,120
Speaker 3: bet him, though, against both Jake Matthews and Daniel Zilhuber,

825
00:38:53,160 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 3: he took a round off Azelle. Huber didn't look quite

826
00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:57,840
Speaker 3: as good against Matthews, couldn't really get it going. I

827
00:38:57,840 --> 00:39:00,400
Speaker 3: believe he had changed camps right before the Matthews, So

828
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:02,200
Speaker 3: this is a guy who I think will continue to

829
00:39:02,280 --> 00:39:05,920
Speaker 3: level up in his career. He's also thirteen years younger

830
00:39:06,080 --> 00:39:10,759
Speaker 3: in very Tenakov, so huge athleticism advantage. Vera Tanakov is

831
00:39:10,920 --> 00:39:13,440
Speaker 3: three inches taller, five entreach advantage. But I think Proto

832
00:39:13,719 --> 00:39:18,400
Speaker 3: sustaining the power cardio throughout a fifteen minute fight much likelier.

833
00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:21,279
Speaker 3: And I do think he has full grappling upside here

834
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:24,200
Speaker 3: as well. My model actually showed value on the underdog,

835
00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:27,560
Speaker 3: but veritanakov ozh and three. In the UFC the losses

836
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:31,920
Speaker 3: are okay, Michael Morales, Danny Barlow split decision, Aliston Vanderford

837
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:35,000
Speaker 3: out grappled him. That's probably not going to get thoroughly dominated,

838
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:37,520
Speaker 3: you know in the wrestling here. But as I said,

839
00:39:37,600 --> 00:39:39,880
Speaker 3: Prado could mix it up a little bit better. Is

840
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:42,360
Speaker 3: the younger man I think likelier to take over in

841
00:39:42,360 --> 00:39:44,600
Speaker 3: the back half of the fight. So what's your price

842
00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:47,560
Speaker 3: target on Proto Billy and then any of the props

843
00:39:47,560 --> 00:39:47,759
Speaker 3: you like?

844
00:39:47,880 --> 00:39:49,560
Speaker 1: This is not too This is one of the few

845
00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:52,080
Speaker 1: bets on this card that I'm like, very excited about.

846
00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:54,560
Speaker 1: I think I'd take him probably minus one sixty or

847
00:39:54,560 --> 00:39:57,200
Speaker 1: something would be where I finally drew the line.

848
00:39:57,440 --> 00:39:59,040
Speaker 4: Here's the thing, the line.

849
00:39:58,800 --> 00:40:01,360
Speaker 1: As it opened made some based on their resumes, right,

850
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:03,879
Speaker 1: Like Proto's a slight favorite because he's one in three

851
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:07,239
Speaker 1: in the UFC Counting Contender Series. Veritenancoff oh in three

852
00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:09,239
Speaker 1: in the UFC. I see how we get there, Right,

853
00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:11,440
Speaker 1: that's based on what they've done in the past. One

854
00:40:11,480 --> 00:40:14,040
Speaker 1: dude is twenty three in training an American Top Team.

855
00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:16,839
Speaker 1: The other guy is thirty five. So the twenty three

856
00:40:16,920 --> 00:40:19,520
Speaker 1: year old training at American Top Team is very likely

857
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:21,280
Speaker 1: to have added a ton of that wrestling.

858
00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:21,640
Speaker 4: Right.

859
00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:23,879
Speaker 1: He's in there with Dustin Ploye getting ready for this fight.

860
00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:27,600
Speaker 1: All the best you know wrestlers in that lightweight welterweight

861
00:40:27,719 --> 00:40:30,920
Speaker 1: range trained there. His wrestling is going to be massively

862
00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:34,720
Speaker 1: leveled up. It's a huge role for Veritenacoff. There's that Also,

863
00:40:35,239 --> 00:40:37,759
Speaker 1: Proto's in a weird spot where he's too big to

864
00:40:37,840 --> 00:40:40,120
Speaker 1: make one fifty five, but like just a little small

865
00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:42,799
Speaker 1: on one seventy. That's gonna make him look real rough

866
00:40:42,840 --> 00:40:46,720
Speaker 1: against somebody like Jake Matthews, who's a massive welterweight Veritena cough.

867
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:49,960
Speaker 1: Not really as big like thick Wise, you know, muscle

868
00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:53,320
Speaker 1: wise and kids twenty three, he's still putting non muscle.

869
00:40:53,360 --> 00:40:54,839
Speaker 1: We all weigh a lot more than we did at

870
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:57,200
Speaker 1: twenty three. I'm pretty sure. Maybe not Zerrilla, You're still

871
00:40:57,200 --> 00:40:59,600
Speaker 1: pretty slim. But I've put on a lot of weight

872
00:40:59,640 --> 00:41:02,800
Speaker 1: since I can't speak for anyone else, some of it muscle.

873
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:05,880
Speaker 1: He's gonna look more like a welterweight with each passing

874
00:41:05,960 --> 00:41:08,319
Speaker 1: fight in this new division, and he's gonna get so

875
00:41:08,440 --> 00:41:11,480
Speaker 1: much better training an American top team. So very excited

876
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:14,040
Speaker 1: about this one. I think I'm just playing it straight up.

877
00:41:14,040 --> 00:41:15,439
Speaker 1: I can see him knocking him out on the feet.

878
00:41:15,480 --> 00:41:17,960
Speaker 1: I could also see that att grappling kicking in. So

879
00:41:18,360 --> 00:41:19,759
Speaker 1: I don't want to get cute here. I just want

880
00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:22,239
Speaker 1: to win my bet on Francisco Prado, who is much

881
00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:23,760
Speaker 1: better than this record implies.

882
00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:25,759
Speaker 3: I was a little overweight when I was twenty three.

883
00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:27,600
Speaker 3: I was probably it was probably two twenty. I think

884
00:41:27,600 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 3: I'm closer to like one to ninety now, so yeah,

885
00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:31,399
Speaker 3: definitely definitely lighter than I was and I.

886
00:41:31,320 --> 00:41:32,640
Speaker 4: Was twenty three.

887
00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:37,480
Speaker 3: He's got the cardio sauna. Yeah, you know what I'm

888
00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 3: staying in fighting shape. I'm trying to move down to

889
00:41:40,200 --> 00:41:42,920
Speaker 3: walterweight and we're gonna hover around one ninety to make

890
00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:46,319
Speaker 3: the cud easier. So the two fights we didn't get

891
00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 3: to you for this weekend, I actually think there could

892
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:49,920
Speaker 3: be live angles on both of them, which is why

893
00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:51,839
Speaker 3: I want to mention them before we jump off.

894
00:41:52,320 --> 00:41:54,160
Speaker 4: First, being Lucas Breshky.

895
00:41:54,120 --> 00:41:58,080
Speaker 3: Against Ryan Span. Span always dangerous early, but has moved

896
00:41:58,160 --> 00:42:02,000
Speaker 3: up to heavyweight and hasn't necessary taking it seriously like

897
00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:05,360
Speaker 3: he's moving into vision. I think Breshki, if he survives

898
00:42:05,440 --> 00:42:08,839
Speaker 3: the first round, which is unlikely, I would target him

899
00:42:08,920 --> 00:42:11,720
Speaker 3: live after round one. And then same with the Adam

900
00:42:11,800 --> 00:42:18,040
Speaker 3: Fugut against Islam Dublatov fight. Dulatov not all male models,

901
00:42:18,080 --> 00:42:21,879
Speaker 3: but this male model is very damnous and very likely

902
00:42:21,920 --> 00:42:24,080
Speaker 3: to win in round one if Fugut is still there

903
00:42:24,120 --> 00:42:27,239
Speaker 3: after five minutes. Though, I'm interested in betting on Fuget live,

904
00:42:27,320 --> 00:42:31,160
Speaker 3: so Breshki live FU get live potential live spots in

905
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:33,920
Speaker 3: those two fights. We did not touch on any of

906
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:37,120
Speaker 3: those live bets interestabilly any of those fights interesting from

907
00:42:37,120 --> 00:42:39,799
Speaker 3: a betting perspective, I would imagine not for we to

908
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:40,640
Speaker 3: discuss them earlier.

909
00:42:41,040 --> 00:42:44,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, Ryan Span is the heavyweight Terrence McKinney where you

910
00:42:44,000 --> 00:42:45,799
Speaker 1: can just bet him to win round one and then

911
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:49,280
Speaker 1: live bet against his opponent after and you're very unlikely

912
00:42:49,320 --> 00:42:52,200
Speaker 1: to be wrong in either of those directions. This fight

913
00:42:52,200 --> 00:42:55,120
Speaker 1: actually reminds me of the Vitor Petrino fight last time,

914
00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:58,960
Speaker 1: where we have, you know, a somewhat talented but mercurial

915
00:42:59,120 --> 00:43:01,680
Speaker 1: light heavyweight goes to heavyweight and they just feed him

916
00:43:01,680 --> 00:43:03,440
Speaker 1: a dude who's you know, nine to six and one

917
00:43:03,440 --> 00:43:05,719
Speaker 1: as a pro and Lukasbreshki.

918
00:43:05,200 --> 00:43:06,560
Speaker 4: Span should have no problem here.

919
00:43:06,800 --> 00:43:08,880
Speaker 1: I'm with you in theory, but the odds of that

920
00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:11,560
Speaker 1: actually getting there are not that great. And yeah, I

921
00:43:11,560 --> 00:43:14,799
Speaker 1: mentioned Fuget du Latov from a DFS standpoint. If you

922
00:43:14,800 --> 00:43:17,239
Speaker 1: think Dulatov can survive the first or if Fugitt can

923
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:20,719
Speaker 1: survive the opening round, tremendous DFS play. It's kind of

924
00:43:20,760 --> 00:43:22,560
Speaker 1: like a cheap way to get some exposure where you'll

925
00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:26,200
Speaker 1: move past everybody if you're right. So that's how I

926
00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:29,600
Speaker 1: will be approaching that one Doulatov where I can afford him.

927
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:33,399
Speaker 1: Fuget is kind of a contrarian angle there to your point.

928
00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:35,080
Speaker 1: I think your point is sharp. I just think I

929
00:43:35,080 --> 00:43:36,719
Speaker 1: could make a lot more money by having him in

930
00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:39,399
Speaker 1: a DFS lineup than trying to catch the live line

931
00:43:39,400 --> 00:43:42,759
Speaker 1: at the right time. And you know, with enough money

932
00:43:42,760 --> 00:43:43,640
Speaker 1: to make it worth my while.

933
00:43:43,960 --> 00:43:47,560
Speaker 3: He's finished everyone, including ten in round one to five

934
00:43:47,600 --> 00:43:50,160
Speaker 3: in the first minute of his fight. So really looking

935
00:43:50,160 --> 00:43:53,120
Speaker 3: forward to Duelatov's debut this weekend. Then I'll do it

936
00:43:53,160 --> 00:43:55,000
Speaker 3: for a UFC betting preview. You can find more you

937
00:43:55,120 --> 00:43:58,080
Speaker 3: see betting content for both Billy and myself both on

938
00:43:58,120 --> 00:44:00,239
Speaker 3: actionwork dot com and in the Action workup. And if

939
00:44:00,239 --> 00:44:01,840
Speaker 3: you'd like to instantly tell some of the bets that

940
00:44:01,880 --> 00:44:04,239
Speaker 3: we discussed on today's show, make sure to look for

941
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:07,520
Speaker 3: the quicklip links both in the podcast and the video description,

942
00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:11,279
Speaker 3: or visit actionnetwork dot com slash bet now. Don't forget

943
00:44:11,320 --> 00:44:13,320
Speaker 3: to download that free award winning Action Network Gap and

944
00:44:13,360 --> 00:44:16,040
Speaker 3: sign up for Action Pro for immediate access to expert

945
00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:18,600
Speaker 3: picks and analysis. Best of luck with our your bets

946
00:44:18,600 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 3: this week, and enjoy the violence. Thank you for listening.

947
00:44:20,840 --> 00:44:31,960
Speaker 2: To see you next time, Action Network reminds you please

948
00:44:32,000 --> 00:44:35,400
Speaker 2: gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has

949
00:44:35,440 --> 00:44:38,520
Speaker 2: a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to seven

950
00:44:38,719 --> 00:44:40,160
Speaker 2: at one eight hundred gambler