WEBVTT - Riding the Hype Cycle With Web3 0:00:04.400 --> 0:00:07.800 Welcome to tech Stuff, a production from I Heart Radio. 0:00:11.800 --> 0:00:14.800 Hey there, and welcome to tech Stuff. I'm your host, 0:00:14.960 --> 0:00:18.680 Jonathan Strickland. I'm an executive producer with I Heart Radio. 0:00:18.840 --> 0:00:22.079 And how the tech are you? Well? I think it's 0:00:22.120 --> 0:00:26.720 time once again to consider the hype cycle, largely because 0:00:26.960 --> 0:00:30.360 we are leading up to south By Southwest and south 0:00:30.360 --> 0:00:33.800 By Southwest has as part of it a big tech 0:00:33.880 --> 0:00:38.159 conference and usually you see a lot of height around 0:00:38.280 --> 0:00:41.840 emerging technologies and that's not always a bad thing, but 0:00:42.040 --> 0:00:49.640 it can frequently lead to overstating the capabilities of technologies 0:00:49.680 --> 0:00:53.280 that have not matured yet, and that in itself can 0:00:53.520 --> 0:00:58.640 end up being dangerous or embarrassing or costly. And so 0:00:59.680 --> 0:01:02.960 I want to talk about the hype cycle, specifically with 0:01:03.040 --> 0:01:06.959 regard to Web three. That's gonna be a topic one 0:01:07.000 --> 0:01:10.959 of many topics of discussion at this year's south By Southwest, 0:01:11.000 --> 0:01:15.240 as will the metaverse and many other related subjects. So 0:01:15.319 --> 0:01:18.600 the hype cycle is a concept that is usually presented 0:01:18.720 --> 0:01:21.840 as a little line chart. If you were to look 0:01:21.880 --> 0:01:24.640 at one, you would see kind of like an X 0:01:24.760 --> 0:01:28.320 Y axis and a line would be emerging from the 0:01:28.880 --> 0:01:31.760 center that's going out to the right, and then it 0:01:31.920 --> 0:01:37.400 quickly climbs up, peaks, drops off into a valley, and 0:01:37.400 --> 0:01:40.280 then slowly rises out of that valley to hit a 0:01:40.400 --> 0:01:43.760 kind of flat section. And the purpose of this is 0:01:43.800 --> 0:01:48.120 to kind of describe not the evolution of a technology specifically, 0:01:49.120 --> 0:01:55.000 but rather how people react to and receive certain technologies. 0:01:55.160 --> 0:01:58.200 And there's no hard set timeline that the hype cycle 0:01:58.280 --> 0:02:01.880 has to adhere to. It's really more of a description 0:02:02.040 --> 0:02:06.919 of the stages that the public reception of a technology 0:02:06.960 --> 0:02:10.919 will go through. It's kind of similar to the stages 0:02:10.919 --> 0:02:14.040 of grief. So you've probably heard of the stages of grief. 0:02:14.080 --> 0:02:19.960 Those are denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and then acceptance. And 0:02:20.000 --> 0:02:23.239 again there's no specific amount of time that's assigned to 0:02:23.360 --> 0:02:27.680 every stage. Every person will experience the stages of grief 0:02:28.200 --> 0:02:31.240 on their own timeline, and in fact, the same person 0:02:31.360 --> 0:02:34.800 might have to go through the grieving process multiple times 0:02:34.800 --> 0:02:37.920 throughout their lives, and that timeline could be different from 0:02:38.440 --> 0:02:43.600 instance to instance, so there's not like a set uh 0:02:44.120 --> 0:02:46.280 length of time for each of these. It's more like 0:02:46.680 --> 0:02:51.320 this is generally the the process that you go through. Well, 0:02:51.360 --> 0:02:55.120 in the hype cycle, everything begins with what is called 0:02:55.120 --> 0:03:01.079 a technology trigger. Typically the trigger is when a technology 0:03:01.200 --> 0:03:07.560 has been announced or covered by the media early early 0:03:07.680 --> 0:03:11.480 on while it's still in development, So the tech is 0:03:11.480 --> 0:03:15.560 not in its final form, it hasn't matured. It may 0:03:15.600 --> 0:03:21.480 still just be a lot of possibilities and potential, so 0:03:21.800 --> 0:03:24.760 we know more about what the tech could possibly do 0:03:25.120 --> 0:03:28.920 rather than what it actually can do. Now, I would 0:03:29.000 --> 0:03:33.520 argue that Web three falls into this stage where we 0:03:33.600 --> 0:03:36.960 are between the technology trigger and that peak I was 0:03:37.000 --> 0:03:39.680 talking about. There are a lot of ideas about what 0:03:39.720 --> 0:03:42.320 Web three will eventually be, and we'll talk about those 0:03:42.400 --> 0:03:44.760 later in this episode, but the truth of the matter 0:03:44.840 --> 0:03:48.920 is it's still something that is coalescing, and so it's really, 0:03:49.000 --> 0:03:52.400 I would argue, impossible to say what Web three will 0:03:52.440 --> 0:03:56.520 be because it ain't a thing yet. It's still being developed, 0:03:56.960 --> 0:04:01.240 and there are a lot of similar are concepts, but 0:04:01.440 --> 0:04:04.120 they're going about it in slightly different ways. There's no 0:04:04.160 --> 0:04:09.840 consensus as to what Web three ultimately is going to be. Now, 0:04:09.880 --> 0:04:13.720 in this early phase in the hype cycle, you end 0:04:13.800 --> 0:04:17.480 up hearing a lot of buzz about the technology, and 0:04:17.960 --> 0:04:21.240 this is fed by the media, right the media gets 0:04:21.240 --> 0:04:24.520 really excited starting to cover the stuff, and that in 0:04:24.600 --> 0:04:29.799 turn feeds back into people's enthusiasm about the the evolving tech, 0:04:30.080 --> 0:04:33.760 so people start to imagine potential versions of this technology, 0:04:33.839 --> 0:04:37.680 like what it will ultimately turn into and what it 0:04:37.760 --> 0:04:40.840 might be capable of in the future. So, as an example, 0:04:41.120 --> 0:04:44.440 just recently, I talked about invisibility tech on this very 0:04:44.480 --> 0:04:48.760 podcast and how through the use of meta materials and 0:04:48.839 --> 0:04:52.800 some other techniques, researchers have been able to redirect certain 0:04:52.839 --> 0:04:57.280 bands of electromagnetic radiation to turn a solid object quote 0:04:57.360 --> 0:05:02.800 unquote invisible, but only invisible two specific small ranges of 0:05:02.800 --> 0:05:06.840 electromagnetic frequencies. So you might be able to turn something 0:05:06.920 --> 0:05:11.080 quote unquote invisible to microwaves, but it would still remain 0:05:11.200 --> 0:05:14.799 visible in the visible light spectrum. So in other words, 0:05:15.000 --> 0:05:17.200 you as a human being would see that there's an 0:05:17.200 --> 0:05:20.400 object there, but a device that was using microwaves to 0:05:20.440 --> 0:05:23.880 detect an object would not see it. They would the 0:05:24.279 --> 0:05:27.000 microwaves would bend around the object and continue forward as 0:05:27.040 --> 0:05:30.080 if nothing were there, and so to the microwave detector, 0:05:30.360 --> 0:05:32.320 there's nothing there, but you would still be able to 0:05:32.360 --> 0:05:35.560 see the object because it's not invisible to the visible 0:05:35.640 --> 0:05:39.520 light spectrum. Well, as media outlets started to cover stories 0:05:39.880 --> 0:05:44.159 about meta materials and these experiments with stuff like microwaves. 0:05:44.880 --> 0:05:49.760 Then this naturally prompted a lot of what if scenarios 0:05:49.839 --> 0:05:53.440 projecting into the future, saying, oh, if we can make 0:05:53.520 --> 0:05:56.840 something invisible to microwaves, then what if you can make 0:05:56.839 --> 0:06:00.839 a meta material that could redirect all visible eight the 0:06:00.880 --> 0:06:04.280 same way this microwave experiment is doing with microwaves, Then 0:06:04.320 --> 0:06:07.720 you would have the equivalent of Wonder Woman's invisible jet, 0:06:07.800 --> 0:06:11.159 but for real, and that would be a phenomenal method 0:06:11.160 --> 0:06:15.360 of camouflage. Right you could say, Wow, that's amazing, That's 0:06:15.400 --> 0:06:18.120 the stuff of science fiction, and people began to get 0:06:18.120 --> 0:06:21.400 excited about this idea. Meanwhile, you had some researchers who 0:06:21.440 --> 0:06:23.840 are trying to say stuff like, we are nowhere close 0:06:23.880 --> 0:06:26.240 to being able to do that, and in fact, we 0:06:26.360 --> 0:06:30.000 might never be able to cover the entire spectrum of 0:06:30.120 --> 0:06:34.240 visible light and make something totally invisible to human sight 0:06:35.080 --> 0:06:38.840 because we may not have a method that works across 0:06:39.120 --> 0:06:42.400 that spectrum of frequencies. We might be able to cover 0:06:42.520 --> 0:06:44.360 some of it, but not all of it, which means 0:06:44.400 --> 0:06:47.359 it would still be visible. It would just appear to 0:06:47.360 --> 0:06:50.440 be a specific kind of color based upon whatever frequencies 0:06:50.680 --> 0:06:54.839 were reflecting off of it. But that didn't stop the hype. 0:06:55.040 --> 0:06:56.520 There were a lot of people who are really excited 0:06:56.520 --> 0:07:00.240 about it. Now we were heading to the next age 0:07:00.240 --> 0:07:02.679 of the cycle. This is what Gardner calls the peak 0:07:02.839 --> 0:07:06.599 of inflated expectations. So this is where we top out 0:07:07.680 --> 0:07:13.000 where futurists are predicting incredible results based on young, immature, 0:07:13.200 --> 0:07:18.760 still developing technologies. So they're starting to draw conclusions that 0:07:19.000 --> 0:07:25.640 don't have enough foundation to be reliable, and investors at 0:07:25.640 --> 0:07:28.120 this stage might be pouring a ton of money into 0:07:28.560 --> 0:07:32.920 startups that are developing the technology or looking to exploit 0:07:32.960 --> 0:07:35.880 the technology in some way. And keep in mind the 0:07:35.920 --> 0:07:41.200 technology itself it's still not mature, so people are talking 0:07:41.200 --> 0:07:44.800 about ways they're going to use or exploit the technology 0:07:44.840 --> 0:07:47.920 before the technology has even been proven to be able 0:07:47.960 --> 0:07:52.240 to do those things. So this could be so early 0:07:52.320 --> 0:07:54.920 on in the development of a technology that there's really 0:07:54.960 --> 0:07:57.120 not much to talk about on a technical level. You're 0:07:57.160 --> 0:08:00.760 just thinking about the possibilities if that tech chnology comes 0:08:00.760 --> 0:08:04.560 to pass. So Paraos was definitely in this stage before 0:08:04.560 --> 0:08:07.240 it all came crashing down with an expose. You had 0:08:07.240 --> 0:08:10.960 this technology that reportedly was going to be able to 0:08:11.040 --> 0:08:14.080 run hundreds of different medical tests on a micro drop 0:08:14.200 --> 0:08:19.200 of blood, a single micro drop, and people were still 0:08:19.480 --> 0:08:23.239 really jazzed about that and excited and enthusiastic and believing 0:08:23.280 --> 0:08:27.440 that this was a possibility when the expose showed that 0:08:27.920 --> 0:08:31.120 things were not as they seemed at the company, and 0:08:31.160 --> 0:08:35.840 in fact, it had been drastically overpromising what was possible. 0:08:37.200 --> 0:08:40.160 Next up in the hype cycle, people start to lose 0:08:40.360 --> 0:08:44.520 confidence in a technology. This can be because the tech 0:08:44.640 --> 0:08:47.920 is taking longer than people want for it to mature 0:08:48.280 --> 0:08:51.640 and become a capable tech, or it may be that 0:08:51.720 --> 0:08:55.680 it is maturing but it doesn't actually have all the 0:08:55.760 --> 0:08:59.240 features that folks were excited about earlier on the hype cycle, 0:08:59.760 --> 0:09:03.640 where they find out, oh, it works, but it doesn't 0:09:03.840 --> 0:09:05.880 work as well as I hoped, or it doesn't do 0:09:05.920 --> 0:09:09.120 the thing I was hoping it would do. So in short, 0:09:09.160 --> 0:09:13.800 the reality of this technology is falling short, sometimes fall 0:09:13.960 --> 0:09:17.240 far short of what the promise was. So when normal 0:09:17.320 --> 0:09:20.280 folks like like yours truly first got a chance to 0:09:20.400 --> 0:09:26.400 use virtual reality technology once VR had emerged, and prematurely, 0:09:26.480 --> 0:09:30.520 some would argue, out of research labs, the results were 0:09:30.640 --> 0:09:35.000 far more modest than what pop culture had been imagining 0:09:35.160 --> 0:09:38.600 right in the media, VR was going to be this 0:09:38.720 --> 0:09:42.360 thing that would would almost literally transport you into the 0:09:42.360 --> 0:09:46.880 computer world, but the actual experience of using VR was 0:09:47.400 --> 0:09:49.840 far more limited than that. I would argue that the 0:09:49.880 --> 0:09:53.920 technology was truly impressive. I mean, having head tracking technology 0:09:53.960 --> 0:09:57.600 alone blew my mind, and I thought it was super 0:09:57.720 --> 0:10:02.320 exciting showing what the capabilities were. It's just that the 0:10:02.360 --> 0:10:06.880 actual implementations were pretty limited. But that didn't discourage me. 0:10:06.920 --> 0:10:11.080 I just thought, Wow, this technology has so much promise. However, 0:10:11.160 --> 0:10:13.680 a lot of other people just felt like disappointed and 0:10:13.760 --> 0:10:17.400 let down that it wasn't the knockout hit right out 0:10:17.400 --> 0:10:20.560 of the gate that they were expecting, and as a result, 0:10:20.600 --> 0:10:23.080 they kind of turned on the technology. They dismissed it 0:10:23.120 --> 0:10:25.720 in the nineties, and that led to the next stage 0:10:25.720 --> 0:10:28.959 of the hype cycle, which is the trough of disillusionment. 0:10:29.720 --> 0:10:33.040 This stage is where people have become disenchanted with the 0:10:33.120 --> 0:10:36.120 technology because it failed to live up to their expectations. 0:10:36.600 --> 0:10:40.320 Often at this stage, investors will stop supporting companies that 0:10:40.360 --> 0:10:44.880 are involved in this technology. Ledgling companies that got into 0:10:44.920 --> 0:10:49.120 the sector often fail at the stage. They just ceased 0:10:49.160 --> 0:10:53.320 to exist, and technology itself can die at this stage 0:10:53.360 --> 0:10:56.520 if it's still in the maturation process and has not 0:10:57.320 --> 0:11:01.760 fully been developed. The technology it's could just lose enough 0:11:01.800 --> 0:11:05.839 support that there's no one left to develop it. But 0:11:05.960 --> 0:11:08.959 often you'll have a few holdout companies and organizations that 0:11:09.000 --> 0:11:12.280 will continue to work on it and keep enough people 0:11:12.400 --> 0:11:16.640 interested and happy for the cycle to continue development, and 0:11:16.760 --> 0:11:20.760 VR very nearly died out after the public became disenchanted 0:11:20.800 --> 0:11:25.160 with it. In the nineties, funding for VR dropped significantly, 0:11:25.320 --> 0:11:29.880 and research institutions and universities found themselves struggling to support 0:11:30.080 --> 0:11:32.560 further development. In fact, at this stage, a lot of 0:11:32.600 --> 0:11:36.439 researchers who are hoping to use VR for some really 0:11:36.520 --> 0:11:41.320 innovative use cases like treating phobias, for example, they found 0:11:41.320 --> 0:11:47.319 themselves developing tools by repurposing other technologies. They were looking 0:11:47.360 --> 0:11:50.800 at game systems like the Wii or the Sony Move 0:11:50.880 --> 0:11:54.600 controller system and they converted those into VR tools. Or 0:11:54.640 --> 0:11:57.760 they looked at Microsoft Connect the peripheral for the Xbox, 0:11:58.160 --> 0:12:01.920 and they took that and repurposed that. Researchers they lacked 0:12:01.920 --> 0:12:05.920 the resources that they needed to build hardware for themselves, 0:12:05.960 --> 0:12:09.320 so they were doing their best by repurposing existing hardware 0:12:09.559 --> 0:12:12.920 that was intended for other uses. And so the work 0:12:13.000 --> 0:12:15.120 was able to continue, but it was at a pace 0:12:15.160 --> 0:12:18.679 that was way way slower than earlier on in the 0:12:18.760 --> 0:12:22.320 hype cycle. So VR could have just died right then 0:12:22.360 --> 0:12:26.319 and there, but it lived to VR another day. Now. 0:12:26.400 --> 0:12:30.040 Next up in the hype cycle is the slope of enlightenment. 0:12:30.240 --> 0:12:33.000 This stage happens as people come to terms with what 0:12:33.080 --> 0:12:37.079 a technology can actually do, as opposed to all those 0:12:37.120 --> 0:12:40.560 nebulous potentials that we were dreaming about earlier on in 0:12:40.600 --> 0:12:43.520 the cycle. Now it may turn out that the tech 0:12:43.800 --> 0:12:47.400 isn't an incredible solution to all the world's problems, but 0:12:47.520 --> 0:12:49.880 maybe it turns out to do certain things really well, 0:12:49.960 --> 0:12:53.319 and as a result, people support the technology more. At 0:12:53.360 --> 0:12:55.320 this stage, we have a better understanding of what the 0:12:55.360 --> 0:12:57.760 tech can do, and while it might not enjoy the 0:12:57.800 --> 0:13:01.520 monumental success everyone was hoping for earlier in the cycle, 0:13:01.720 --> 0:13:05.200 when everyone had just dollar signs in their eyes, it 0:13:05.320 --> 0:13:09.480 can have a healthy place in the space. Now we're 0:13:09.480 --> 0:13:11.240 gonna take a quick break. When we come back, i'll 0:13:11.240 --> 0:13:14.079 finish up talking about the hype cycle. Then we're gonna 0:13:14.080 --> 0:13:28.959 focus specifically on Web three. But first these messages. Okay, 0:13:29.160 --> 0:13:31.880 when we were leaving off, before the messages, we had 0:13:32.280 --> 0:13:35.679 the slope of enlightenment in the hype cycle. You could 0:13:35.720 --> 0:13:39.439 actually argue that VR is currently in the slope of enlightenment, 0:13:39.880 --> 0:13:43.920 that while it survived the trough due to the emergence 0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:48.880 of the oculus in general, like really the oculus particularly 0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:51.840 helped a lot, that VR was able to make a 0:13:51.880 --> 0:13:55.640 recovery and start moving on the slope of enlightenment. Uh. 0:13:56.760 --> 0:13:59.520 And you might say that, all right, well, maybe it's 0:13:59.520 --> 0:14:03.600 still on in the slope of enlightenment because while it's 0:14:03.640 --> 0:14:06.640 more popular than it was in the nineties, it has 0:14:06.640 --> 0:14:11.480 not achieved mainstream adoption. The VR market is still a 0:14:11.480 --> 0:14:14.320 fairly niche market. And we see that not just in 0:14:14.360 --> 0:14:17.040 the sales of VR headsets and and trust me, there 0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:19.960 have been really good sales, like lots of people have 0:14:20.000 --> 0:14:23.160 bought them, but we also see it because it's not 0:14:23.200 --> 0:14:27.360 like we're seeing a ton of really innovative development in 0:14:27.520 --> 0:14:30.680 VR in the commercial space. The reason for that is 0:14:31.160 --> 0:14:34.520 a developer is not going to spend the resources needed 0:14:34.560 --> 0:14:37.800 to create VR experiences if there's not enough of a 0:14:37.920 --> 0:14:42.200 market out there to make it make business sense to 0:14:42.200 --> 0:14:45.960 do so, right, You're not gonna make something like it 0:14:45.960 --> 0:14:47.480 wouldn't make any sense for you to set up a 0:14:47.560 --> 0:14:51.520 lemonade stand and sell lemonade for twenty five cents of glass. 0:14:51.720 --> 0:14:54.320 If it turned out that it cost you fifty cents 0:14:54.320 --> 0:14:57.920 of glass to make a right, you wouldn't You wouldn't 0:14:57.920 --> 0:15:01.120 do that. You would either mark up the elimonade or 0:15:01.120 --> 0:15:03.040 you'd say, no, I'm not getting into that racket. I'm 0:15:03.040 --> 0:15:08.520 doing something else. So that's kind of where VR is now. 0:15:08.560 --> 0:15:11.040 If it's in the slope of enlightenment, we can still 0:15:11.080 --> 0:15:16.480 see adoption over time as the technology continues to reach 0:15:16.720 --> 0:15:22.120 its mature level. And maybe that's where VR is at 0:15:22.160 --> 0:15:26.280 this moment. It at least is where everyone who's working 0:15:26.320 --> 0:15:30.440 on the metaverse concept is hoping VR and mixed reality 0:15:30.520 --> 0:15:34.280 or X are is, because if it is in the 0:15:34.280 --> 0:15:38.920 slope of enlightenment, it's still moving toward mainstream adoption because 0:15:38.960 --> 0:15:41.920 the last phase in the cycle is called the plateau 0:15:42.320 --> 0:15:46.800 of productivity. Plateau tells you people's expectations are not going 0:15:46.840 --> 0:15:50.280 to really increase from here, right. They pretty much feel 0:15:50.320 --> 0:15:53.160 that the technology is where it needs to be. It 0:15:53.200 --> 0:15:56.800 does what it it does, and maybe it's good enough 0:15:56.840 --> 0:15:59.440 so that it's a really popular technology, or maybe it 0:15:59.600 --> 0:16:04.000 just ever emerged from a niche market. So this is 0:16:04.040 --> 0:16:09.120 where we would expect the technology to evolve over time, 0:16:09.760 --> 0:16:14.520 but those evolutions will be small, Right, You're not going 0:16:14.560 --> 0:16:19.240 to see a dramatic change generation to generation. It'll just 0:16:19.280 --> 0:16:23.560 be improving along with other technologies, but not to such 0:16:23.600 --> 0:16:26.320 a dramatic point that it becomes almost like it's a 0:16:26.320 --> 0:16:29.320 new tech. I would say the smartphone is definitely in 0:16:29.480 --> 0:16:33.120 the plateau of productivity phase. Uh. This might be to 0:16:33.160 --> 0:16:36.400 the chagrin of some Apple fans. There was a time 0:16:36.600 --> 0:16:40.880 early on in the iPhones life where everyone would wait 0:16:40.920 --> 0:16:44.760 anxiously each year for the next model's release, because the 0:16:44.840 --> 0:16:49.720 improvements in generation to generation were fairly significant and easy 0:16:49.800 --> 0:16:54.320 to understand and see. But the technology reached a mature 0:16:54.400 --> 0:16:57.520 stage several years back. There are still some Apple fans 0:16:57.560 --> 0:17:02.480 who expressed disappointment when they go and look at the 0:17:02.560 --> 0:17:05.280 events where there there's an unveiling of a new model 0:17:05.359 --> 0:17:09.119 of iPhone, and it's not because the new iPhone models 0:17:09.160 --> 0:17:13.200 aren't good. Instead, it's because they aren't different enough from 0:17:13.240 --> 0:17:17.800 earlier ones to feel like a huge leap forward. And 0:17:17.920 --> 0:17:20.239 early on that wasn't the case, like it felt like 0:17:20.320 --> 0:17:23.160 every iPhone was a big leap over the past one, 0:17:23.600 --> 0:17:26.520 but you eventually reach a maturity where those big leaps 0:17:26.560 --> 0:17:29.879 just aren't gonna come anymore. They'll improve, but not in 0:17:30.359 --> 0:17:33.960 the same span that you would see in earlier versions. 0:17:34.720 --> 0:17:37.160 That is the mark of a truly mature technology. Each 0:17:37.200 --> 0:17:40.959 generation of iPhone has at least some improvements over previous generations, 0:17:41.000 --> 0:17:43.800 though some design changes may also disappointment you know a 0:17:43.840 --> 0:17:47.040 subset of users. So, for example, my wife doesn't like 0:17:47.119 --> 0:17:50.119 facial recognition tech, and so she's still upset that the 0:17:50.119 --> 0:17:53.359 iPhone ditched the fingerprints since their several generations back. In fact, 0:17:53.400 --> 0:17:56.440 she resisted buying a new iPhone for a long time, 0:17:56.480 --> 0:18:00.479 specifically because the newer ones didn't have the finger and sensor. 0:18:01.240 --> 0:18:05.200 Eventually she gave in, but it was hard fought battle. 0:18:05.760 --> 0:18:08.600 Now at this plateau, there is a clear understanding of 0:18:08.640 --> 0:18:12.280 the relevance of the technology. There's an established market for 0:18:12.320 --> 0:18:15.760 the tech. Adoption of the technology has likely reached close 0:18:15.800 --> 0:18:19.040 to a saturation point, meaning all the folks who are 0:18:19.160 --> 0:18:22.399 interested in this technology have bought in, and the folks 0:18:22.440 --> 0:18:25.119 who are not interested in the technology are not likely 0:18:25.160 --> 0:18:29.320 to change their minds very easily. VR and XR companies 0:18:29.680 --> 0:18:32.760 really hope the VR hasn't reached this point of the 0:18:32.800 --> 0:18:36.480 hype cycle, because if this is where VR is now, 0:18:37.080 --> 0:18:43.720 then we may never see a mainstream adoption of virtual reality, 0:18:43.800 --> 0:18:47.480 which in turn would mean that the most visions of 0:18:47.480 --> 0:18:52.040 the metaverse are built upon a shaky foundation, because if 0:18:52.080 --> 0:18:55.040 a company's vision of the metaverse incorporates mixed reality in 0:18:55.040 --> 0:18:58.800 any significant way, well, then it stands to reason that 0:18:58.880 --> 0:19:03.080 mixed reality itself has to be pretty mainstream, you know, 0:19:03.160 --> 0:19:06.960 something on the level of smartphones. Like smartphones definitely change 0:19:07.000 --> 0:19:10.040 the web. The mobile experience with the Web is very 0:19:10.040 --> 0:19:14.439 different from the desktop and laptop experience, and the metaverse 0:19:14.600 --> 0:19:20.320 proponents are really hoping that VR will enable the metaverse 0:19:20.359 --> 0:19:23.520 to have that same kind of transformational effect on how 0:19:23.560 --> 0:19:26.880 we interact with the online world. But for the metaverse 0:19:26.920 --> 0:19:30.480 to be more than just an online community for a subset, 0:19:30.960 --> 0:19:36.280 a small subset of the overall online population, mixed reality 0:19:36.400 --> 0:19:40.520 needs to be a big thing among the mainstream, and 0:19:40.560 --> 0:19:43.320 it just isn't yet. All the companies that hope to 0:19:43.359 --> 0:19:47.440 cash in on the metaverse, whether by providing virtual infrastructure 0:19:47.560 --> 0:19:50.800 or creating ways to conduct business within the metaverse itself, 0:19:51.400 --> 0:19:56.280 they can find themselves over extended. If the basic technology 0:19:56.359 --> 0:20:00.919 needed to access the metaverse never actually takes off, and 0:20:00.960 --> 0:20:03.200 that is a risk, and some risks end up paying 0:20:03.200 --> 0:20:06.280 off and others don't. And we don't know which way 0:20:06.280 --> 0:20:08.479 this one's going to go yet. There are a lot 0:20:08.560 --> 0:20:11.639 of very smart people who think in the end the 0:20:11.680 --> 0:20:14.439 metaverse is going to be a big winner, specifically a 0:20:14.480 --> 0:20:17.600 metaverse that incorporates mixed reality, that it's going to be 0:20:18.240 --> 0:20:21.560 the way of the future, And you know, they very well. 0:20:21.640 --> 0:20:24.960 Maybe right now, I say that because I am extremely 0:20:25.080 --> 0:20:29.440 skeptical that the metaverse, at least that vision of the metaverse, 0:20:29.480 --> 0:20:32.399 will be the next big thing. But I have also 0:20:32.520 --> 0:20:36.119 famously been really wrong about prediction stuff in the past, 0:20:36.240 --> 0:20:41.680 so just counted as skepticism. But that doesn't mean I'm right. 0:20:43.720 --> 0:20:45.960 I will say that so far I'm right because mixed 0:20:45.960 --> 0:20:50.080 reality has not become a mainstream technology. It's popular, but 0:20:50.119 --> 0:20:53.960 not popular enough to be considered even close to as 0:20:54.440 --> 0:20:58.600 mainstream as cell phones and smartphones. And the reason again 0:20:58.640 --> 0:21:01.560 that I'm talking about this psycho, which I've done many 0:21:01.600 --> 0:21:04.520 times on this show, is to emphasize how critical thinking 0:21:04.640 --> 0:21:07.879 is key to navigating the stages of hype. It is 0:21:08.000 --> 0:21:14.399 important to ask questions even uncomfortable hard questions as hype 0:21:14.560 --> 0:21:17.919 ramps up. Those questions can help you avoid disaster, and 0:21:17.960 --> 0:21:21.119 they can also help shape the path of a technology 0:21:21.160 --> 0:21:24.119 so that it has the best chance of turning out well. 0:21:24.560 --> 0:21:28.480 So I want to re emphasize that point too. I'm 0:21:28.560 --> 0:21:32.119 not just advocating critical thinking because I want people to 0:21:32.280 --> 0:21:37.720 avoid scams or you know, schemes that end up being 0:21:37.840 --> 0:21:41.800 based on faulty premises. That is important. I do not 0:21:41.920 --> 0:21:44.920 want you to get fleeced. That is way up there. 0:21:45.160 --> 0:21:50.960 But also through being critical, you can give any process 0:21:51.040 --> 0:21:55.199 the best chance of addressing your concerns, and thus the 0:21:55.320 --> 0:21:58.280 end product ends up being better because you address the 0:21:58.280 --> 0:22:02.800 concerns early on instead of having to fix something after 0:22:02.920 --> 0:22:06.160 it's already been baked in. And if we don't ask 0:22:06.160 --> 0:22:09.680 the tough questions, then that baking process may go all 0:22:09.760 --> 0:22:11.879 sorts of wrong, and then the thing we end up 0:22:11.920 --> 0:22:16.320 with ends up not being as useful or ends up 0:22:16.359 --> 0:22:20.200 not benefiting the right people, and we just have ourselves 0:22:20.240 --> 0:22:23.439 to blame because we didn't ask those tough questions. That 0:22:23.560 --> 0:22:26.480 is what I'm trying to do now with Web three, 0:22:26.800 --> 0:22:29.399 and I'm gonna be straight with all y'all. Web three 0:22:29.920 --> 0:22:33.919 still puzzles me. I mean, I understand the big picture 0:22:33.960 --> 0:22:36.919 stuff about Web three, but I feel we're in that 0:22:37.000 --> 0:22:39.680 initial part of the hype cycle where we haven't really 0:22:39.800 --> 0:22:44.240 hit the peak of inflated expectations yet and that we're 0:22:44.280 --> 0:22:48.800 still headed to the trough of disillusionment. But let me explain, 0:22:48.960 --> 0:22:53.840 all right, So first, how do we define Web three. 0:22:54.440 --> 0:22:56.639 There's actually a really big problem here, and part of 0:22:56.680 --> 0:22:59.159 that problem is that, you know, folks are still working 0:22:59.520 --> 0:23:02.320 to create what will be Web three, so we don't 0:23:02.359 --> 0:23:05.960 have a finished thing we can talk about. So again 0:23:06.000 --> 0:23:10.959 we're dealing with probabilities and possibilities and potential and blue 0:23:10.960 --> 0:23:15.480 sky dreaming and hype, and it becomes difficult to draw 0:23:15.560 --> 0:23:22.719 any firm conclusions. Generally speaking, proponents of Web three tend 0:23:23.160 --> 0:23:25.879 to describe it as the next phase of how we 0:23:25.960 --> 0:23:30.159 experience the online world. And the easiest way for me 0:23:30.200 --> 0:23:33.440 to do this is to walk through what Web one 0:23:33.560 --> 0:23:37.399 and Web two are. So Web one point, oh, the 0:23:37.440 --> 0:23:41.439 initial version of the web was a worldwide web filled 0:23:41.480 --> 0:23:44.520 with static web pages, and you would go to a 0:23:44.560 --> 0:23:46.600 web page you type in the U r L, or 0:23:46.640 --> 0:23:48.760 maybe you would find it in a in an early 0:23:48.800 --> 0:23:51.800 search engine, or a link or whatever. You go to 0:23:51.840 --> 0:23:54.399 this web page, you would read what was written on 0:23:54.440 --> 0:23:57.199 the web page. Then you would bounce, and there was 0:23:57.240 --> 0:23:59.800 no real way to interact with the material, and the 0:24:00.000 --> 0:24:03.800 material itself wouldn't typically change because making changes to a 0:24:03.840 --> 0:24:06.600 web page was a hassle. You know, you would actually 0:24:06.600 --> 0:24:09.119 have to go into the HTML code and then change 0:24:09.160 --> 0:24:11.879 the layout in the text in there, and then you 0:24:11.880 --> 0:24:14.680 would have to save it and publish it again. There's 0:24:14.720 --> 0:24:16.439 just a lot of work if you wanted to make 0:24:16.560 --> 0:24:19.520 changes to a web page, Like if your web page 0:24:19.560 --> 0:24:22.119 was I don't know about the birth of the British Navy. 0:24:22.560 --> 0:24:24.240 That was actually one of the first web pages I 0:24:24.280 --> 0:24:26.639 made when I was fresh out of college. So you 0:24:26.680 --> 0:24:29.320 could think of this era as the web being in 0:24:29.680 --> 0:24:32.959 read only mode. You can't make changes to it if 0:24:32.960 --> 0:24:35.960 you're a user, like you're not the web page administrator, 0:24:36.000 --> 0:24:39.000 you're just a visitor. You can't do anything that actually 0:24:39.080 --> 0:24:42.080 changes the web page. You can just read it. That's it. 0:24:42.720 --> 0:24:47.520 Web two point I would introduce interactivity and user generated content, 0:24:47.960 --> 0:24:51.919 as well as dynamic elements on the web pages themselves. 0:24:52.160 --> 0:24:55.440 So now a web page could become a living document. 0:24:55.960 --> 0:24:58.520 It's one that could actually evolve over time, instead of 0:24:58.560 --> 0:25:01.560 just being the same page day in and day out. 0:25:02.320 --> 0:25:05.520 People also developed ways to swap out elements on web 0:25:05.520 --> 0:25:08.720 pages more easily, so you could update stuff more frequently 0:25:08.800 --> 0:25:12.080 and with a little less hassle. And sites began to 0:25:12.119 --> 0:25:15.560 include ways for users to leave their own input, so 0:25:15.800 --> 0:25:18.440 you can have message boards, you could have user reviews, 0:25:18.480 --> 0:25:22.320 you could have social network sites. Now the web became 0:25:22.600 --> 0:25:26.120