1 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to tech Stuff, a production from I Heart Radio. 2 00:00:11,800 --> 00:00:14,800 Speaker 1: Hey there, and welcome to tech Stuff. I'm your host, 3 00:00:14,960 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 1: Jonathan Strickland. I'm an executive producer with I Heart Radio. 4 00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:22,079 Speaker 1: And how the tech are you? Well? I think it's 5 00:00:22,120 --> 00:00:26,720 Speaker 1: time once again to consider the hype cycle, largely because 6 00:00:26,960 --> 00:00:30,360 Speaker 1: we are leading up to south By Southwest and south 7 00:00:30,360 --> 00:00:33,800 Speaker 1: By Southwest has as part of it a big tech 8 00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:38,159 Speaker 1: conference and usually you see a lot of height around 9 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:41,840 Speaker 1: emerging technologies and that's not always a bad thing, but 10 00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:49,640 Speaker 1: it can frequently lead to overstating the capabilities of technologies 11 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:53,280 Speaker 1: that have not matured yet, and that in itself can 12 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:58,640 Speaker 1: end up being dangerous or embarrassing or costly. And so 13 00:00:59,680 --> 00:01:02,960 Speaker 1: I want to talk about the hype cycle, specifically with 14 00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:06,959 Speaker 1: regard to Web three. That's gonna be a topic one 15 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:10,959 Speaker 1: of many topics of discussion at this year's south By Southwest, 16 00:01:11,000 --> 00:01:15,240 Speaker 1: as will the metaverse and many other related subjects. So 17 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:18,600 Speaker 1: the hype cycle is a concept that is usually presented 18 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:21,840 Speaker 1: as a little line chart. If you were to look 19 00:01:21,880 --> 00:01:24,640 Speaker 1: at one, you would see kind of like an X 20 00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:28,320 Speaker 1: Y axis and a line would be emerging from the 21 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:31,760 Speaker 1: center that's going out to the right, and then it 22 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:37,400 Speaker 1: quickly climbs up, peaks, drops off into a valley, and 23 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 1: then slowly rises out of that valley to hit a 24 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:43,760 Speaker 1: kind of flat section. And the purpose of this is 25 00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:48,120 Speaker 1: to kind of describe not the evolution of a technology specifically, 26 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 1: but rather how people react to and receive certain technologies. 27 00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 1: And there's no hard set timeline that the hype cycle 28 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 1: has to adhere to. It's really more of a description 29 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:06,919 Speaker 1: of the stages that the public reception of a technology 30 00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:10,919 Speaker 1: will go through. It's kind of similar to the stages 31 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 1: of grief. So you've probably heard of the stages of grief. 32 00:02:14,080 --> 00:02:19,960 Speaker 1: Those are denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and then acceptance. And 33 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:23,239 Speaker 1: again there's no specific amount of time that's assigned to 34 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:27,680 Speaker 1: every stage. Every person will experience the stages of grief 35 00:02:28,200 --> 00:02:31,240 Speaker 1: on their own timeline, and in fact, the same person 36 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:34,800 Speaker 1: might have to go through the grieving process multiple times 37 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:37,920 Speaker 1: throughout their lives, and that timeline could be different from 38 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:43,600 Speaker 1: instance to instance, so there's not like a set uh 39 00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:46,280 Speaker 1: length of time for each of these. It's more like 40 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:51,320 Speaker 1: this is generally the the process that you go through. Well, 41 00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:55,120 Speaker 1: in the hype cycle, everything begins with what is called 42 00:02:55,120 --> 00:03:01,079 Speaker 1: a technology trigger. Typically the trigger is when a technology 43 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:07,560 Speaker 1: has been announced or covered by the media early early 44 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:11,480 Speaker 1: on while it's still in development, So the tech is 45 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:15,560 Speaker 1: not in its final form, it hasn't matured. It may 46 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 1: still just be a lot of possibilities and potential, so 47 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:24,760 Speaker 1: we know more about what the tech could possibly do 48 00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:28,920 Speaker 1: rather than what it actually can do. Now, I would 49 00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:33,520 Speaker 1: argue that Web three falls into this stage where we 50 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:36,960 Speaker 1: are between the technology trigger and that peak I was 51 00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:39,680 Speaker 1: talking about. There are a lot of ideas about what 52 00:03:39,720 --> 00:03:42,320 Speaker 1: Web three will eventually be, and we'll talk about those 53 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:44,760 Speaker 1: later in this episode, but the truth of the matter 54 00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:48,920 Speaker 1: is it's still something that is coalescing, and so it's really, 55 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:52,400 Speaker 1: I would argue, impossible to say what Web three will 56 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:56,520 Speaker 1: be because it ain't a thing yet. It's still being developed, 57 00:03:56,960 --> 00:04:01,240 Speaker 1: and there are a lot of similar are concepts, but 58 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:04,120 Speaker 1: they're going about it in slightly different ways. There's no 59 00:04:04,160 --> 00:04:09,840 Speaker 1: consensus as to what Web three ultimately is going to be. Now, 60 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:13,720 Speaker 1: in this early phase in the hype cycle, you end 61 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:17,480 Speaker 1: up hearing a lot of buzz about the technology, and 62 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:21,240 Speaker 1: this is fed by the media, right the media gets 63 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:24,520 Speaker 1: really excited starting to cover the stuff, and that in 64 00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:29,799 Speaker 1: turn feeds back into people's enthusiasm about the the evolving tech, 65 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:33,760 Speaker 1: so people start to imagine potential versions of this technology, 66 00:04:33,839 --> 00:04:37,680 Speaker 1: like what it will ultimately turn into and what it 67 00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:40,840 Speaker 1: might be capable of in the future. So, as an example, 68 00:04:41,120 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 1: just recently, I talked about invisibility tech on this very 69 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 1: podcast and how through the use of meta materials and 70 00:04:48,839 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 1: some other techniques, researchers have been able to redirect certain 71 00:04:52,839 --> 00:04:57,280 Speaker 1: bands of electromagnetic radiation to turn a solid object quote 72 00:04:57,360 --> 00:05:02,800 Speaker 1: unquote invisible, but only invisible two specific small ranges of 73 00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:06,840 Speaker 1: electromagnetic frequencies. So you might be able to turn something 74 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:11,080 Speaker 1: quote unquote invisible to microwaves, but it would still remain 75 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:14,799 Speaker 1: visible in the visible light spectrum. So in other words, 76 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:17,200 Speaker 1: you as a human being would see that there's an 77 00:05:17,200 --> 00:05:20,400 Speaker 1: object there, but a device that was using microwaves to 78 00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 1: detect an object would not see it. They would the 79 00:05:24,279 --> 00:05:27,000 Speaker 1: microwaves would bend around the object and continue forward as 80 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:30,080 Speaker 1: if nothing were there, and so to the microwave detector, 81 00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 1: there's nothing there, but you would still be able to 82 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 1: see the object because it's not invisible to the visible 83 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:39,520 Speaker 1: light spectrum. Well, as media outlets started to cover stories 84 00:05:39,880 --> 00:05:44,159 Speaker 1: about meta materials and these experiments with stuff like microwaves. 85 00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:49,760 Speaker 1: Then this naturally prompted a lot of what if scenarios 86 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:53,440 Speaker 1: projecting into the future, saying, oh, if we can make 87 00:05:53,520 --> 00:05:56,840 Speaker 1: something invisible to microwaves, then what if you can make 88 00:05:56,839 --> 00:06:00,839 Speaker 1: a meta material that could redirect all visible eight the 89 00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:04,280 Speaker 1: same way this microwave experiment is doing with microwaves, Then 90 00:06:04,320 --> 00:06:07,720 Speaker 1: you would have the equivalent of Wonder Woman's invisible jet, 91 00:06:07,800 --> 00:06:11,159 Speaker 1: but for real, and that would be a phenomenal method 92 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:15,360 Speaker 1: of camouflage. Right you could say, Wow, that's amazing, That's 93 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:18,120 Speaker 1: the stuff of science fiction, and people began to get 94 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:21,400 Speaker 1: excited about this idea. Meanwhile, you had some researchers who 95 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:23,840 Speaker 1: are trying to say stuff like, we are nowhere close 96 00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:26,240 Speaker 1: to being able to do that, and in fact, we 97 00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:30,000 Speaker 1: might never be able to cover the entire spectrum of 98 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 1: visible light and make something totally invisible to human sight 99 00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:38,840 Speaker 1: because we may not have a method that works across 100 00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 1: that spectrum of frequencies. We might be able to cover 101 00:06:42,520 --> 00:06:44,360 Speaker 1: some of it, but not all of it, which means 102 00:06:44,400 --> 00:06:47,359 Speaker 1: it would still be visible. It would just appear to 103 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:50,440 Speaker 1: be a specific kind of color based upon whatever frequencies 104 00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:54,839 Speaker 1: were reflecting off of it. But that didn't stop the hype. 105 00:06:55,040 --> 00:06:56,520 Speaker 1: There were a lot of people who are really excited 106 00:06:56,520 --> 00:07:00,240 Speaker 1: about it. Now we were heading to the next age 107 00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:02,679 Speaker 1: of the cycle. This is what Gardner calls the peak 108 00:07:02,839 --> 00:07:06,599 Speaker 1: of inflated expectations. So this is where we top out 109 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:13,000 Speaker 1: where futurists are predicting incredible results based on young, immature, 110 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:18,760 Speaker 1: still developing technologies. So they're starting to draw conclusions that 111 00:07:19,000 --> 00:07:25,640 Speaker 1: don't have enough foundation to be reliable, and investors at 112 00:07:25,640 --> 00:07:28,120 Speaker 1: this stage might be pouring a ton of money into 113 00:07:28,560 --> 00:07:32,920 Speaker 1: startups that are developing the technology or looking to exploit 114 00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:35,880 Speaker 1: the technology in some way. And keep in mind the 115 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 1: technology itself it's still not mature, so people are talking 116 00:07:41,200 --> 00:07:44,800 Speaker 1: about ways they're going to use or exploit the technology 117 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:47,920 Speaker 1: before the technology has even been proven to be able 118 00:07:47,960 --> 00:07:52,240 Speaker 1: to do those things. So this could be so early 119 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:54,920 Speaker 1: on in the development of a technology that there's really 120 00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:57,120 Speaker 1: not much to talk about on a technical level. You're 121 00:07:57,160 --> 00:08:00,760 Speaker 1: just thinking about the possibilities if that tech chnology comes 122 00:08:00,760 --> 00:08:04,560 Speaker 1: to pass. So Paraos was definitely in this stage before 123 00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:07,240 Speaker 1: it all came crashing down with an expose. You had 124 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:10,960 Speaker 1: this technology that reportedly was going to be able to 125 00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:14,080 Speaker 1: run hundreds of different medical tests on a micro drop 126 00:08:14,200 --> 00:08:19,200 Speaker 1: of blood, a single micro drop, and people were still 127 00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:23,239 Speaker 1: really jazzed about that and excited and enthusiastic and believing 128 00:08:23,280 --> 00:08:27,440 Speaker 1: that this was a possibility when the expose showed that 129 00:08:27,920 --> 00:08:31,120 Speaker 1: things were not as they seemed at the company, and 130 00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:35,840 Speaker 1: in fact, it had been drastically overpromising what was possible. 131 00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:40,160 Speaker 1: Next up in the hype cycle, people start to lose 132 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:44,520 Speaker 1: confidence in a technology. This can be because the tech 133 00:08:44,640 --> 00:08:47,920 Speaker 1: is taking longer than people want for it to mature 134 00:08:48,280 --> 00:08:51,640 Speaker 1: and become a capable tech, or it may be that 135 00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:55,680 Speaker 1: it is maturing but it doesn't actually have all the 136 00:08:55,760 --> 00:08:59,240 Speaker 1: features that folks were excited about earlier on the hype cycle, 137 00:08:59,760 --> 00:09:03,640 Speaker 1: where they find out, oh, it works, but it doesn't 138 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:05,880 Speaker 1: work as well as I hoped, or it doesn't do 139 00:09:05,920 --> 00:09:09,120 Speaker 1: the thing I was hoping it would do. So in short, 140 00:09:09,160 --> 00:09:13,800 Speaker 1: the reality of this technology is falling short, sometimes fall 141 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:17,240 Speaker 1: far short of what the promise was. So when normal 142 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:20,280 Speaker 1: folks like like yours truly first got a chance to 143 00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:26,400 Speaker 1: use virtual reality technology once VR had emerged, and prematurely, 144 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 1: some would argue, out of research labs, the results were 145 00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:35,000 Speaker 1: far more modest than what pop culture had been imagining 146 00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:38,600 Speaker 1: right in the media, VR was going to be this 147 00:09:38,720 --> 00:09:42,360 Speaker 1: thing that would would almost literally transport you into the 148 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:46,880 Speaker 1: computer world, but the actual experience of using VR was 149 00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:49,840 Speaker 1: far more limited than that. I would argue that the 150 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:53,920 Speaker 1: technology was truly impressive. I mean, having head tracking technology 151 00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:57,600 Speaker 1: alone blew my mind, and I thought it was super 152 00:09:57,720 --> 00:10:02,320 Speaker 1: exciting showing what the capabilities were. It's just that the 153 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:06,880 Speaker 1: actual implementations were pretty limited. But that didn't discourage me. 154 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:11,080 Speaker 1: I just thought, Wow, this technology has so much promise. However, 155 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:13,680 Speaker 1: a lot of other people just felt like disappointed and 156 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:17,400 Speaker 1: let down that it wasn't the knockout hit right out 157 00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:20,560 Speaker 1: of the gate that they were expecting, and as a result, 158 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:23,080 Speaker 1: they kind of turned on the technology. They dismissed it 159 00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:25,720 Speaker 1: in the nineties, and that led to the next stage 160 00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:28,959 Speaker 1: of the hype cycle, which is the trough of disillusionment. 161 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:33,040 Speaker 1: This stage is where people have become disenchanted with the 162 00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:36,120 Speaker 1: technology because it failed to live up to their expectations. 163 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:40,320 Speaker 1: Often at this stage, investors will stop supporting companies that 164 00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:44,880 Speaker 1: are involved in this technology. Ledgling companies that got into 165 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:49,120 Speaker 1: the sector often fail at the stage. They just ceased 166 00:10:49,160 --> 00:10:53,320 Speaker 1: to exist, and technology itself can die at this stage 167 00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:56,520 Speaker 1: if it's still in the maturation process and has not 168 00:10:57,320 --> 00:11:01,760 Speaker 1: fully been developed. The technology it's could just lose enough 169 00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:05,839 Speaker 1: support that there's no one left to develop it. But 170 00:11:05,960 --> 00:11:08,959 Speaker 1: often you'll have a few holdout companies and organizations that 171 00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:12,280 Speaker 1: will continue to work on it and keep enough people 172 00:11:12,400 --> 00:11:16,640 Speaker 1: interested and happy for the cycle to continue development, and 173 00:11:16,760 --> 00:11:20,760 Speaker 1: VR very nearly died out after the public became disenchanted 174 00:11:20,800 --> 00:11:25,160 Speaker 1: with it. In the nineties, funding for VR dropped significantly, 175 00:11:25,320 --> 00:11:29,880 Speaker 1: and research institutions and universities found themselves struggling to support 176 00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:32,560 Speaker 1: further development. In fact, at this stage, a lot of 177 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:36,439 Speaker 1: researchers who are hoping to use VR for some really 178 00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:41,320 Speaker 1: innovative use cases like treating phobias, for example, they found 179 00:11:41,320 --> 00:11:47,319 Speaker 1: themselves developing tools by repurposing other technologies. They were looking 180 00:11:47,360 --> 00:11:50,800 Speaker 1: at game systems like the Wii or the Sony Move 181 00:11:50,880 --> 00:11:54,600 Speaker 1: controller system and they converted those into VR tools. Or 182 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:57,760 Speaker 1: they looked at Microsoft Connect the peripheral for the Xbox, 183 00:11:58,160 --> 00:12:01,920 Speaker 1: and they took that and repurposed that. Researchers they lacked 184 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 1: the resources that they needed to build hardware for themselves, 185 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:09,320 Speaker 1: so they were doing their best by repurposing existing hardware 186 00:12:09,559 --> 00:12:12,920 Speaker 1: that was intended for other uses. And so the work 187 00:12:13,000 --> 00:12:15,120 Speaker 1: was able to continue, but it was at a pace 188 00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:18,679 Speaker 1: that was way way slower than earlier on in the 189 00:12:18,760 --> 00:12:22,320 Speaker 1: hype cycle. So VR could have just died right then 190 00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:26,319 Speaker 1: and there, but it lived to VR another day. Now. 191 00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:30,040 Speaker 1: Next up in the hype cycle is the slope of enlightenment. 192 00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:33,000 Speaker 1: This stage happens as people come to terms with what 193 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:37,079 Speaker 1: a technology can actually do, as opposed to all those 194 00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:40,560 Speaker 1: nebulous potentials that we were dreaming about earlier on in 195 00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:43,520 Speaker 1: the cycle. Now it may turn out that the tech 196 00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:47,400 Speaker 1: isn't an incredible solution to all the world's problems, but 197 00:12:47,520 --> 00:12:49,880 Speaker 1: maybe it turns out to do certain things really well, 198 00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:53,319 Speaker 1: and as a result, people support the technology more. At 199 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:55,320 Speaker 1: this stage, we have a better understanding of what the 200 00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:57,760 Speaker 1: tech can do, and while it might not enjoy the 201 00:12:57,800 --> 00:13:01,520 Speaker 1: monumental success everyone was hoping for earlier in the cycle, 202 00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:05,200 Speaker 1: when everyone had just dollar signs in their eyes, it 203 00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:09,480 Speaker 1: can have a healthy place in the space. Now we're 204 00:13:09,480 --> 00:13:11,240 Speaker 1: gonna take a quick break. When we come back, i'll 205 00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:14,079 Speaker 1: finish up talking about the hype cycle. Then we're gonna 206 00:13:14,080 --> 00:13:28,959 Speaker 1: focus specifically on Web three. But first these messages. Okay, 207 00:13:29,160 --> 00:13:31,880 Speaker 1: when we were leaving off, before the messages, we had 208 00:13:32,280 --> 00:13:35,679 Speaker 1: the slope of enlightenment in the hype cycle. You could 209 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:39,439 Speaker 1: actually argue that VR is currently in the slope of enlightenment, 210 00:13:39,880 --> 00:13:43,920 Speaker 1: that while it survived the trough due to the emergence 211 00:13:44,200 --> 00:13:48,880 Speaker 1: of the oculus in general, like really the oculus particularly 212 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:51,840 Speaker 1: helped a lot, that VR was able to make a 213 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:55,640 Speaker 1: recovery and start moving on the slope of enlightenment. Uh. 214 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:59,520 Speaker 1: And you might say that, all right, well, maybe it's 215 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:03,600 Speaker 1: still on in the slope of enlightenment because while it's 216 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:06,640 Speaker 1: more popular than it was in the nineties, it has 217 00:14:06,640 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 1: not achieved mainstream adoption. The VR market is still a 218 00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:14,320 Speaker 1: fairly niche market. And we see that not just in 219 00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:17,040 Speaker 1: the sales of VR headsets and and trust me, there 220 00:14:17,080 --> 00:14:19,960 Speaker 1: have been really good sales, like lots of people have 221 00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:23,160 Speaker 1: bought them, but we also see it because it's not 222 00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:27,360 Speaker 1: like we're seeing a ton of really innovative development in 223 00:14:27,520 --> 00:14:30,680 Speaker 1: VR in the commercial space. The reason for that is 224 00:14:31,160 --> 00:14:34,520 Speaker 1: a developer is not going to spend the resources needed 225 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:37,800 Speaker 1: to create VR experiences if there's not enough of a 226 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:42,200 Speaker 1: market out there to make it make business sense to 227 00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:45,960 Speaker 1: do so, right, You're not gonna make something like it 228 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:47,480 Speaker 1: wouldn't make any sense for you to set up a 229 00:14:47,560 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 1: lemonade stand and sell lemonade for twenty five cents of glass. 230 00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:54,320 Speaker 1: If it turned out that it cost you fifty cents 231 00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:57,920 Speaker 1: of glass to make a right, you wouldn't You wouldn't 232 00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:01,120 Speaker 1: do that. You would either mark up the elimonade or 233 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:03,040 Speaker 1: you'd say, no, I'm not getting into that racket. I'm 234 00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:08,520 Speaker 1: doing something else. So that's kind of where VR is now. 235 00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 1: If it's in the slope of enlightenment, we can still 236 00:15:11,080 --> 00:15:16,480 Speaker 1: see adoption over time as the technology continues to reach 237 00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:22,120 Speaker 1: its mature level. And maybe that's where VR is at 238 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:26,280 Speaker 1: this moment. It at least is where everyone who's working 239 00:15:26,320 --> 00:15:30,440 Speaker 1: on the metaverse concept is hoping VR and mixed reality 240 00:15:30,520 --> 00:15:34,280 Speaker 1: or X are is, because if it is in the 241 00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:38,920 Speaker 1: slope of enlightenment, it's still moving toward mainstream adoption because 242 00:15:38,960 --> 00:15:41,920 Speaker 1: the last phase in the cycle is called the plateau 243 00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:46,800 Speaker 1: of productivity. Plateau tells you people's expectations are not going 244 00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:50,280 Speaker 1: to really increase from here, right. They pretty much feel 245 00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:53,160 Speaker 1: that the technology is where it needs to be. It 246 00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:56,800 Speaker 1: does what it it does, and maybe it's good enough 247 00:15:56,840 --> 00:15:59,440 Speaker 1: so that it's a really popular technology, or maybe it 248 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:04,000 Speaker 1: just ever emerged from a niche market. So this is 249 00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:09,120 Speaker 1: where we would expect the technology to evolve over time, 250 00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:14,520 Speaker 1: but those evolutions will be small, Right, You're not going 251 00:16:14,560 --> 00:16:19,240 Speaker 1: to see a dramatic change generation to generation. It'll just 252 00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:23,560 Speaker 1: be improving along with other technologies, but not to such 253 00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:26,320 Speaker 1: a dramatic point that it becomes almost like it's a 254 00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:29,320 Speaker 1: new tech. I would say the smartphone is definitely in 255 00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:33,120 Speaker 1: the plateau of productivity phase. Uh. This might be to 256 00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:36,400 Speaker 1: the chagrin of some Apple fans. There was a time 257 00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:40,880 Speaker 1: early on in the iPhones life where everyone would wait 258 00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:44,760 Speaker 1: anxiously each year for the next model's release, because the 259 00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:49,720 Speaker 1: improvements in generation to generation were fairly significant and easy 260 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:54,320 Speaker 1: to understand and see. But the technology reached a mature 261 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:57,520 Speaker 1: stage several years back. There are still some Apple fans 262 00:16:57,560 --> 00:17:02,480 Speaker 1: who expressed disappointment when they go and look at the 263 00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:05,280 Speaker 1: events where there there's an unveiling of a new model 264 00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:09,119 Speaker 1: of iPhone, and it's not because the new iPhone models 265 00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:13,200 Speaker 1: aren't good. Instead, it's because they aren't different enough from 266 00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:17,800 Speaker 1: earlier ones to feel like a huge leap forward. And 267 00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:20,239 Speaker 1: early on that wasn't the case, like it felt like 268 00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:23,160 Speaker 1: every iPhone was a big leap over the past one, 269 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:26,520 Speaker 1: but you eventually reach a maturity where those big leaps 270 00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:29,879 Speaker 1: just aren't gonna come anymore. They'll improve, but not in 271 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:33,960 Speaker 1: the same span that you would see in earlier versions. 272 00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:37,160 Speaker 1: That is the mark of a truly mature technology. Each 273 00:17:37,200 --> 00:17:40,959 Speaker 1: generation of iPhone has at least some improvements over previous generations, 274 00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:43,800 Speaker 1: though some design changes may also disappointment you know a 275 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:47,040 Speaker 1: subset of users. So, for example, my wife doesn't like 276 00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:50,119 Speaker 1: facial recognition tech, and so she's still upset that the 277 00:17:50,119 --> 00:17:53,359 Speaker 1: iPhone ditched the fingerprints since their several generations back. In fact, 278 00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:56,440 Speaker 1: she resisted buying a new iPhone for a long time, 279 00:17:56,480 --> 00:18:00,479 Speaker 1: specifically because the newer ones didn't have the finger and sensor. 280 00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:05,200 Speaker 1: Eventually she gave in, but it was hard fought battle. 281 00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:08,600 Speaker 1: Now at this plateau, there is a clear understanding of 282 00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 1: the relevance of the technology. There's an established market for 283 00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:15,760 Speaker 1: the tech. Adoption of the technology has likely reached close 284 00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:19,040 Speaker 1: to a saturation point, meaning all the folks who are 285 00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:22,399 Speaker 1: interested in this technology have bought in, and the folks 286 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:25,119 Speaker 1: who are not interested in the technology are not likely 287 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:29,320 Speaker 1: to change their minds very easily. VR and XR companies 288 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:32,760 Speaker 1: really hope the VR hasn't reached this point of the 289 00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:36,480 Speaker 1: hype cycle, because if this is where VR is now, 290 00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:43,720 Speaker 1: then we may never see a mainstream adoption of virtual reality, 291 00:18:43,800 --> 00:18:47,480 Speaker 1: which in turn would mean that the most visions of 292 00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:52,040 Speaker 1: the metaverse are built upon a shaky foundation, because if 293 00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:55,040 Speaker 1: a company's vision of the metaverse incorporates mixed reality in 294 00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:58,800 Speaker 1: any significant way, well, then it stands to reason that 295 00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:03,080 Speaker 1: mixed reality itself has to be pretty mainstream, you know, 296 00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:06,960 Speaker 1: something on the level of smartphones. Like smartphones definitely change 297 00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:10,040 Speaker 1: the web. The mobile experience with the Web is very 298 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:14,439 Speaker 1: different from the desktop and laptop experience, and the metaverse 299 00:19:14,600 --> 00:19:20,320 Speaker 1: proponents are really hoping that VR will enable the metaverse 300 00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:23,520 Speaker 1: to have that same kind of transformational effect on how 301 00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:26,880 Speaker 1: we interact with the online world. But for the metaverse 302 00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:30,480 Speaker 1: to be more than just an online community for a subset, 303 00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:36,280 Speaker 1: a small subset of the overall online population, mixed reality 304 00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:40,520 Speaker 1: needs to be a big thing among the mainstream, and 305 00:19:40,560 --> 00:19:43,320 Speaker 1: it just isn't yet. All the companies that hope to 306 00:19:43,359 --> 00:19:47,440 Speaker 1: cash in on the metaverse, whether by providing virtual infrastructure 307 00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:50,800 Speaker 1: or creating ways to conduct business within the metaverse itself, 308 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:56,280 Speaker 1: they can find themselves over extended. If the basic technology 309 00:19:56,359 --> 00:20:00,919 Speaker 1: needed to access the metaverse never actually takes off, and 310 00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:03,200 Speaker 1: that is a risk, and some risks end up paying 311 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:06,280 Speaker 1: off and others don't. And we don't know which way 312 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:08,479 Speaker 1: this one's going to go yet. There are a lot 313 00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:11,639 Speaker 1: of very smart people who think in the end the 314 00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:14,439 Speaker 1: metaverse is going to be a big winner, specifically a 315 00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:17,600 Speaker 1: metaverse that incorporates mixed reality, that it's going to be 316 00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:21,560 Speaker 1: the way of the future, And you know, they very well. 317 00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:24,960 Speaker 1: Maybe right now, I say that because I am extremely 318 00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:29,440 Speaker 1: skeptical that the metaverse, at least that vision of the metaverse, 319 00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:32,399 Speaker 1: will be the next big thing. But I have also 320 00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:36,119 Speaker 1: famously been really wrong about prediction stuff in the past, 321 00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:41,680 Speaker 1: so just counted as skepticism. But that doesn't mean I'm right. 322 00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:45,960 Speaker 1: I will say that so far I'm right because mixed 323 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:50,080 Speaker 1: reality has not become a mainstream technology. It's popular, but 324 00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:53,960 Speaker 1: not popular enough to be considered even close to as 325 00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:58,600 Speaker 1: mainstream as cell phones and smartphones. And the reason again 326 00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:01,560 Speaker 1: that I'm talking about this psycho, which I've done many 327 00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:04,520 Speaker 1: times on this show, is to emphasize how critical thinking 328 00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:07,879 Speaker 1: is key to navigating the stages of hype. It is 329 00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:14,399 Speaker 1: important to ask questions even uncomfortable hard questions as hype 330 00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:17,919 Speaker 1: ramps up. Those questions can help you avoid disaster, and 331 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:21,119 Speaker 1: they can also help shape the path of a technology 332 00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:24,119 Speaker 1: so that it has the best chance of turning out well. 333 00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:28,480 Speaker 1: So I want to re emphasize that point too. I'm 334 00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:32,119 Speaker 1: not just advocating critical thinking because I want people to 335 00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:37,720 Speaker 1: avoid scams or you know, schemes that end up being 336 00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:41,800 Speaker 1: based on faulty premises. That is important. I do not 337 00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:44,920 Speaker 1: want you to get fleeced. That is way up there. 338 00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:50,960 Speaker 1: But also through being critical, you can give any process 339 00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:55,199 Speaker 1: the best chance of addressing your concerns, and thus the 340 00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:58,280 Speaker 1: end product ends up being better because you address the 341 00:21:58,280 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 1: concerns early on instead of having to fix something after 342 00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:06,160 Speaker 1: it's already been baked in. And if we don't ask 343 00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:09,680 Speaker 1: the tough questions, then that baking process may go all 344 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:11,879 Speaker 1: sorts of wrong, and then the thing we end up 345 00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:16,320 Speaker 1: with ends up not being as useful or ends up 346 00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:20,200 Speaker 1: not benefiting the right people, and we just have ourselves 347 00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:23,439 Speaker 1: to blame because we didn't ask those tough questions. That 348 00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:26,480 Speaker 1: is what I'm trying to do now with Web three, 349 00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:29,399 Speaker 1: and I'm gonna be straight with all y'all. Web three 350 00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:33,919 Speaker 1: still puzzles me. I mean, I understand the big picture 351 00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:36,919 Speaker 1: stuff about Web three, but I feel we're in that 352 00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:39,680 Speaker 1: initial part of the hype cycle where we haven't really 353 00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:44,240 Speaker 1: hit the peak of inflated expectations yet and that we're 354 00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:48,800 Speaker 1: still headed to the trough of disillusionment. But let me explain, 355 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:53,840 Speaker 1: all right, So first, how do we define Web three. 356 00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:56,639 Speaker 1: There's actually a really big problem here, and part of 357 00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,159 Speaker 1: that problem is that, you know, folks are still working 358 00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:02,320 Speaker 1: to create what will be Web three, so we don't 359 00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:05,960 Speaker 1: have a finished thing we can talk about. So again 360 00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:10,959 Speaker 1: we're dealing with probabilities and possibilities and potential and blue 361 00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:15,480 Speaker 1: sky dreaming and hype, and it becomes difficult to draw 362 00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:22,719 Speaker 1: any firm conclusions. Generally speaking, proponents of Web three tend 363 00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:25,879 Speaker 1: to describe it as the next phase of how we 364 00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:30,159 Speaker 1: experience the online world. And the easiest way for me 365 00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:33,440 Speaker 1: to do this is to walk through what Web one 366 00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:37,399 Speaker 1: and Web two are. So Web one point, oh, the 367 00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:41,439 Speaker 1: initial version of the web was a worldwide web filled 368 00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:44,520 Speaker 1: with static web pages, and you would go to a 369 00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:46,600 Speaker 1: web page you type in the U r L, or 370 00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:48,760 Speaker 1: maybe you would find it in a in an early 371 00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:51,800 Speaker 1: search engine, or a link or whatever. You go to 372 00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:54,399 Speaker 1: this web page, you would read what was written on 373 00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:57,199 Speaker 1: the web page. Then you would bounce, and there was 374 00:23:57,240 --> 00:23:59,800 Speaker 1: no real way to interact with the material, and the 375 00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:03,800 Speaker 1: material itself wouldn't typically change because making changes to a 376 00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:06,600 Speaker 1: web page was a hassle. You know, you would actually 377 00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,119 Speaker 1: have to go into the HTML code and then change 378 00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:11,879 Speaker 1: the layout in the text in there, and then you 379 00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:14,680 Speaker 1: would have to save it and publish it again. There's 380 00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:16,439 Speaker 1: just a lot of work if you wanted to make 381 00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:19,520 Speaker 1: changes to a web page, Like if your web page 382 00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:22,119 Speaker 1: was I don't know about the birth of the British Navy. 383 00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:24,240 Speaker 1: That was actually one of the first web pages I 384 00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:26,639 Speaker 1: made when I was fresh out of college. So you 385 00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:29,320 Speaker 1: could think of this era as the web being in 386 00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:32,959 Speaker 1: read only mode. You can't make changes to it if 387 00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:35,960 Speaker 1: you're a user, like you're not the web page administrator, 388 00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:39,000 Speaker 1: you're just a visitor. You can't do anything that actually 389 00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:42,080 Speaker 1: changes the web page. You can just read it. That's it. 390 00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:47,520 Speaker 1: Web two point I would introduce interactivity and user generated content, 391 00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:51,919 Speaker 1: as well as dynamic elements on the web pages themselves. 392 00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:55,440 Speaker 1: So now a web page could become a living document. 393 00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:58,520 Speaker 1: It's one that could actually evolve over time, instead of 394 00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:01,560 Speaker 1: just being the same page day in and day out. 395 00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:05,520 Speaker 1: People also developed ways to swap out elements on web 396 00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:08,720 Speaker 1: pages more easily, so you could update stuff more frequently 397 00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:12,080 Speaker 1: and with a little less hassle. And sites began to 398 00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:15,560 Speaker 1: include ways for users to leave their own input, so 399 00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,440 Speaker 1: you can have message boards, you could have user reviews, 400 00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:22,320 Speaker 1: you could have social network sites. Now the web became 401 00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:26,120 Speaker 1: read right instead of read only, because now you could 402 00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:30,119 Speaker 1: actually go to a web page and influence it. You 403 00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:33,000 Speaker 1: could type stuff in, You could leave a comment on 404 00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:36,919 Speaker 1: a video, or leave a review for a product, or 405 00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:40,520 Speaker 1: create a web journal that people could comment on. This 406 00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:45,159 Speaker 1: was a more interactive web. But something else was also 407 00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:48,639 Speaker 1: happening during this phase. So in web one point a 408 00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:51,879 Speaker 1: web pages were these little independent islands. You know. They 409 00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:54,560 Speaker 1: were hosted on servers, and those servers were all over 410 00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:58,520 Speaker 1: the place. A single server might host tons of web 411 00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:02,440 Speaker 1: pages that had no real connection between them other than 412 00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:05,959 Speaker 1: the fact that they all ultimately quote unquote lived on 413 00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:11,960 Speaker 1: the same machine. So the web was decentralized, it wasn't 414 00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:17,639 Speaker 1: concentrated into little like areas. However, with Web two point oh, 415 00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:21,240 Speaker 1: we saw the emergence of companies that would become monoliths 416 00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:26,720 Speaker 1: on the web, companies like Google, Amazon, and Facebook slash meta. 417 00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:31,800 Speaker 1: These companies began to consolidate power and influence, and importantly, 418 00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:35,320 Speaker 1: they also began to trade in the personal data of 419 00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:39,720 Speaker 1: folks like us. As we visited various sites, these companies 420 00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:42,359 Speaker 1: learned more and more about us and our habits and 421 00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:45,720 Speaker 1: our likes and dislikes, and they use that information in 422 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:49,119 Speaker 1: various ways. They used it to sell more effective advertising 423 00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:52,160 Speaker 1: to their own clients, and they would also buy and 424 00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:56,960 Speaker 1: sell our data, turning our personal information into a commodity 425 00:26:57,040 --> 00:27:00,400 Speaker 1: that could be traded. And the Web became a little 426 00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:06,600 Speaker 1: more centralized around these monoliths. Not necessarily from a technology standpoint, 427 00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:10,280 Speaker 1: though you do have companies like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft 428 00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:13,800 Speaker 1: that do big business with cloud based platforms that lots 429 00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:18,719 Speaker 1: of other services depend upon, But definitely from a market perspective, 430 00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:21,399 Speaker 1: it became more centralized, and within the context of where 431 00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:25,920 Speaker 1: our personal information ends up, it became more centralized. Then 432 00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:28,879 Speaker 1: we finally get to the concept of web three, which 433 00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:35,240 Speaker 1: some have framed as read right own O W n 434 00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:39,160 Speaker 1: as and I own that, and that ownership concept extends 435 00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:43,520 Speaker 1: both to the systems that would make up web three. 436 00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:47,560 Speaker 1: The organizations that make up Web three as well as 437 00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:51,680 Speaker 1: our own personal data. So the era of Web three 438 00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:55,320 Speaker 1: would ideally mean that users would regain control over their 439 00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:58,600 Speaker 1: own information. Again, that this would not be the commodity 440 00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:02,080 Speaker 1: for other companies to buy and sell, that transactions across 441 00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:05,119 Speaker 1: Web three would not include handing over your personal data 442 00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:08,840 Speaker 1: to some other entity that could exploit it for their 443 00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:12,040 Speaker 1: own gain at our expense, and that we would actually 444 00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:17,960 Speaker 1: own a piece of all this through the participation of it. Well, 445 00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:21,760 Speaker 1: how is that possible? I'll explain when we come back 446 00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:34,040 Speaker 1: after this break. Okay, So what is it about Web 447 00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:37,760 Speaker 1: three that enables this ability to own our own information 448 00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:41,360 Speaker 1: and also to own the systems that make up Web three? 449 00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:46,120 Speaker 1: While the underlying technology that most Web three proponents point 450 00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:48,960 Speaker 1: to is the blockchain, and of course that was made 451 00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:51,800 Speaker 1: famous by bitcoin, and in fact, a lot of Web 452 00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:56,040 Speaker 1: three talk revolves around cryptocurrencies in general and blockchain in particular, 453 00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:59,880 Speaker 1: though not all Web three talk includes blockchain, because again 454 00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:03,360 Speaker 1: we're talking about something that ain't a thing yet, and 455 00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:07,200 Speaker 1: and some weathere implementations blockchain doesn't really play apart, but 456 00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:10,719 Speaker 1: in most of them it does. So with blockchain, you 457 00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:16,680 Speaker 1: typically have blocks of data blocks of information. Each block 458 00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:20,160 Speaker 1: actually will only hold a certain amount of information, and 459 00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:23,680 Speaker 1: once it fills up, that block is done. The blockchain 460 00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:28,880 Speaker 1: system has to confirm or verify the data that's within 461 00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:33,240 Speaker 1: that block, and then once verified, that block joins the 462 00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:36,640 Speaker 1: end of a chain of earlier blocks of data. So 463 00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:41,320 Speaker 1: with Bitcoin, each block's identity is tied to the blocks 464 00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:44,600 Speaker 1: that came before it, and that means you can't go 465 00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:48,080 Speaker 1: into the history of bitcoin transactions and change something that 466 00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:51,719 Speaker 1: happened in the past, because if you make a change, 467 00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:55,200 Speaker 1: then there's a ripple effect that goes all the way 468 00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:59,320 Speaker 1: down the chain and every block subsequently added to the 469 00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:01,920 Speaker 1: chain chain ages as well, and the system would immediately 470 00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:04,720 Speaker 1: be alerted that something hainky is going on and it 471 00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:08,080 Speaker 1: could be stopped and reversed. The reason for that is 472 00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:13,040 Speaker 1: without this protection, where the blocks identity depends upon all 473 00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:16,720 Speaker 1: the blocks that came before it, well, you could spend 474 00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:19,960 Speaker 1: a bitcoin and then wait a certain amount of time, 475 00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:24,280 Speaker 1: then go in and tweak the chain of of data 476 00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:27,600 Speaker 1: blocks so that you it looks like you didn't spend 477 00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:30,560 Speaker 1: that bitcoin and that the bitcoin is still in your wallet, 478 00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:33,680 Speaker 1: and then you could spend it again. So by tying 479 00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:38,240 Speaker 1: the data all the way through the chain. It prevents 480 00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:41,160 Speaker 1: you from being able to do those sorts of things. 481 00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:45,600 Speaker 1: At least theoretically. It gets a little more complicated, but 482 00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:48,479 Speaker 1: we're not going to dive into all of that. So 483 00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:52,800 Speaker 1: another important element in bitcoins blockchain is that this this 484 00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:56,440 Speaker 1: chain of data is publicly viewable by any computer system 485 00:30:56,480 --> 00:31:00,200 Speaker 1: that's part of this Bitcoin network, and it serves as 486 00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:04,080 Speaker 1: a ledger of transactions, a record of every transaction made 487 00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:08,719 Speaker 1: across bitcoin. And because everyone can see the ledger, everyone 488 00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:11,360 Speaker 1: in the system that is, can see the ledger that 489 00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:14,880 Speaker 1: keeps things safe, at least in theory. In practice, again, 490 00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:17,400 Speaker 1: sometimes it doesn't quite play out that way all right. 491 00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:23,640 Speaker 1: So a Web three system would consist of a computer network, 492 00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:27,000 Speaker 1: sort of like a peer to peer network, where all 493 00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:30,480 Speaker 1: the computers are connected with each other through this Web 494 00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:35,600 Speaker 1: three interface, and they would participate in the operation of 495 00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:39,880 Speaker 1: a blockchain, perhaps a blockchain that's specific to this Web 496 00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:45,760 Speaker 1: three based application or organization. This system could meant its 497 00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:50,720 Speaker 1: own tokens, similar to cryptocurrency or even similar to n 498 00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:54,960 Speaker 1: f t s, but these are tokens that represent ownership 499 00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:59,640 Speaker 1: of this particular system. The tokens can be used to 500 00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:04,240 Speaker 1: reward people, or really reward computers for completing certain tasks, 501 00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:07,880 Speaker 1: such as verifying a block of data. That's how bitcoin works. 502 00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:11,240 Speaker 1: That's what bitcoin mining is, is you verify a block 503 00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:13,719 Speaker 1: of transactions. If you're a computer is the first one 504 00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:19,560 Speaker 1: to do this by solving an arbitrarily difficult computer problem, 505 00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:24,280 Speaker 1: then you are awarded a certain number of bitcoin, and 506 00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:28,120 Speaker 1: it's an incentive to participate in the system and therefore 507 00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:34,160 Speaker 1: verify transactions. It's this self perpetuating process as long as 508 00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:39,440 Speaker 1: people find value in the currency. So these tokens can 509 00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:43,720 Speaker 1: also represent voting power within these Web three organizations. So 510 00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:46,680 Speaker 1: let me give you a hypothetical. Let's say that you 511 00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:49,640 Speaker 1: are an investor, and let's say you've got a million 512 00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:52,680 Speaker 1: dollars to burn and you decide to invest it in 513 00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:56,680 Speaker 1: a Web three startup. This startup has its own blockchain 514 00:32:57,160 --> 00:32:59,920 Speaker 1: and it's menting its own tokens on that block chain, 515 00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:03,800 Speaker 1: and in return for your monetary investment in the Web 516 00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:08,000 Speaker 1: three startup, the company issues you one hundred thousand tokens 517 00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:12,479 Speaker 1: on this blockchain to represent that investment. We'll just call 518 00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:16,680 Speaker 1: them techy tokens. It's the tech stuff currency. So these 519 00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:19,760 Speaker 1: tokens represent not just your investment, they also represent your 520 00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:23,959 Speaker 1: voting power within the organization itself. It's kind of like 521 00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:27,680 Speaker 1: buying shares in a publicly traded company. The more shares 522 00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:32,000 Speaker 1: you buy, the more voting power you have. So now 523 00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:34,400 Speaker 1: when it comes time to make a decision for the 524 00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:37,560 Speaker 1: direction of the organization, let's say you've get yourself one 525 00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:40,480 Speaker 1: hundred thousand votes. Because we're just simplifying this, we're saying 526 00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:44,000 Speaker 1: one token grants you one vote in the system, you 527 00:33:44,040 --> 00:33:46,360 Speaker 1: have a hundred thousand tokens, so you have a hundred 528 00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:48,320 Speaker 1: thousand votes. But this is just for the purposes of 529 00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:52,080 Speaker 1: this example. So let's say there's someone else who's joined 530 00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:55,920 Speaker 1: this network, but they have earned their tokens organically. They 531 00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:59,840 Speaker 1: haven't poured a million dollars of investments in. They've just 532 00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:03,120 Speaker 1: and participating. Maybe they've verified some transactions, They've got a 533 00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:05,520 Speaker 1: couple of tokens have been awarded to them, so they 534 00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:08,600 Speaker 1: have one or two votes. You have a hundred thousand votes. 535 00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:13,000 Speaker 1: This is where some Web three critics jump in. They 536 00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:17,000 Speaker 1: point out that venture capitalists, by investing into these systems, 537 00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:22,360 Speaker 1: are effectively making themselves into the monoliths that companies like 538 00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:25,840 Speaker 1: Google and Meta serve as in the Web two point 539 00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:30,920 Speaker 1: O world. That sure, in theory, everyone who participates within 540 00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:35,080 Speaker 1: a given Web three system is partly an owner of 541 00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:38,120 Speaker 1: that system. But some folks are going to own such 542 00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:42,120 Speaker 1: a large number of tokens that effectively they dictate the 543 00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:46,880 Speaker 1: decision making process for the overall organization, and everybody else 544 00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:50,600 Speaker 1: doesn't have any real power. So it doesn't become decentralized. 545 00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:54,839 Speaker 1: It is centralized. It's just centralized with different people. These 546 00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:59,480 Speaker 1: organizations also have a name. The thing we call these organizations, 547 00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:03,200 Speaker 1: these Web three based ones. Typically we call them dowels. 548 00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:05,879 Speaker 1: Now I'm not talking about DOW as in the Dow 549 00:35:06,040 --> 00:35:10,080 Speaker 1: Jones Industrial Average, that's d o W. I'm talking d 550 00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:17,280 Speaker 1: a O. That stands for decentralized autonomous organization. It is decentralized, 551 00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:20,480 Speaker 1: though perhaps to an arbitrary degree, because ownership spreads across 552 00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:23,359 Speaker 1: the members of the organization, as opposed to there being 553 00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:27,719 Speaker 1: say a CEO. Right, you don't have a clearly defined 554 00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:31,560 Speaker 1: leader of this organization. Though again, in practice, if there's 555 00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:36,520 Speaker 1: an investor who has essentially bought their their powerful way 556 00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:40,160 Speaker 1: through by acquiring more tokens than anyone else, than effectively 557 00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:45,440 Speaker 1: you're in the same position, but at least conceptually, it's decentralized. 558 00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:49,520 Speaker 1: It's autonomous because it operates based off rules that have 559 00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:54,160 Speaker 1: been encoded as computer processes. And it's an organization because 560 00:35:56,200 --> 00:36:01,040 Speaker 1: because it's organized. But wait, if a doll runs off 561 00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:05,440 Speaker 1: computer rules, then where does voting come into play? What 562 00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:08,399 Speaker 1: does that mean? Well, the voting power determines what those 563 00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:13,000 Speaker 1: computer processes actually are doing, so essentially you decide what 564 00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:16,480 Speaker 1: the rules are through voting. And there are some serious 565 00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:19,319 Speaker 1: challenges with this kind of organization. So, for one, if 566 00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:22,160 Speaker 1: members are inactive, if you've got a lot of people 567 00:36:22,200 --> 00:36:25,480 Speaker 1: who own tokens but they're not actively voting, it can 568 00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:29,120 Speaker 1: become difficult or even impossible to pass a vote with 569 00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:33,440 Speaker 1: the needed amount of support to enact change just because 570 00:36:33,920 --> 00:36:38,080 Speaker 1: the people who own the votes aren't voting. If you've 571 00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:40,920 Speaker 1: got a whale or two in the system, people who 572 00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:44,200 Speaker 1: have accumulated way more votes than the rest of the 573 00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:48,600 Speaker 1: community collectively, then they effectively can dictate whatever the dowel 574 00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:51,600 Speaker 1: does or doesn't do, without regard of whatever the rest 575 00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:55,520 Speaker 1: of the community wants. And you might be thinking, all 576 00:36:55,560 --> 00:36:58,640 Speaker 1: this sounds pretty vague, like I'm getting the general idea, 577 00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:01,359 Speaker 1: but you're you're not being specific, and you are right. 578 00:37:02,120 --> 00:37:05,080 Speaker 1: That's one of my biggest frustrations when I read about 579 00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:08,640 Speaker 1: Web three stuff, or whenever I watch explainer videos on it, 580 00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:11,560 Speaker 1: because I've watched a lot, I kept thinking, I'm not 581 00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:15,520 Speaker 1: getting it, there's something I'm missing. And there's a lot 582 00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:19,480 Speaker 1: of conversation around these ideas, along with other blockchain related 583 00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:22,359 Speaker 1: stuff like n f t s, but there are very 584 00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:28,000 Speaker 1: few explainers that include specifics. At most, you might get 585 00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:31,640 Speaker 1: something like you pay an artist with some tokens for 586 00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:34,879 Speaker 1: some digital art and you don't have to worry about 587 00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:37,960 Speaker 1: your data being shared. I'm like, well, that's okay, But 588 00:37:38,880 --> 00:37:40,480 Speaker 1: I could do a lot of stuff on the web. 589 00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:43,919 Speaker 1: There's so much I can do on the web. How 590 00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:48,400 Speaker 1: does that work in a Web three environment? How is 591 00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:53,719 Speaker 1: that manifested on Web three? What does that look like? 592 00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:56,319 Speaker 1: And it's hard to find really good examples of how 593 00:37:56,320 --> 00:38:00,239 Speaker 1: a Web three implementation would play out in the real world, 594 00:38:00,520 --> 00:38:04,280 Speaker 1: probably because we are in that nebulous phase where Web 595 00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:07,040 Speaker 1: three is not a full thing yet, and I've seen 596 00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:09,319 Speaker 1: a lot from the hype side. I've seen a lot 597 00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:12,120 Speaker 1: from the technical side of how stuff works at a 598 00:38:12,200 --> 00:38:17,080 Speaker 1: code level, with concepts like smart contracts, but getting beyond that, 599 00:38:17,239 --> 00:38:19,920 Speaker 1: to get to like specific give me real world examples 600 00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:23,279 Speaker 1: of how this would play out and be useful, how 601 00:38:23,360 --> 00:38:26,040 Speaker 1: it would be a benefit and better than the way 602 00:38:26,040 --> 00:38:29,720 Speaker 1: it works now. Then it gets really hard to find 603 00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:33,520 Speaker 1: specific examples. I think a lot of people, including myself, 604 00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:37,200 Speaker 1: ultimately just want to know what using Web three really 605 00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:41,280 Speaker 1: would mean in a day to day life and how 606 00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:44,000 Speaker 1: it would play out and why it would be better. 607 00:38:44,640 --> 00:38:47,399 Speaker 1: One question that also has to be answered is will 608 00:38:47,440 --> 00:38:52,160 Speaker 1: the blockchain approach be a scalable one? And if it is, 609 00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:55,200 Speaker 1: then that's great, but it's There are a lot of 610 00:38:55,280 --> 00:38:58,960 Speaker 1: questions about this, like will building things all around blockchain 611 00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:03,440 Speaker 1: technology still work once you have grown beyond a niche community. 612 00:39:03,760 --> 00:39:08,160 Speaker 1: The cryptocurrency community is huge, but is not as huge 613 00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:10,759 Speaker 1: as like the general population of folks who are using 614 00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:15,799 Speaker 1: the Internet, and some transactions on certain blockchains like bitcoins, 615 00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:20,560 Speaker 1: for example, they take a while to verify and thus 616 00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:25,040 Speaker 1: they take a while to resolve the transaction, and due 617 00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:31,000 Speaker 1: to volatility in cryptocurrency value, a transaction can actually take 618 00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:34,040 Speaker 1: long enough to resolve that the amount of bitcoin that 619 00:39:34,120 --> 00:39:38,080 Speaker 1: you've spent can have a drastically different value in say 620 00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:42,680 Speaker 1: US dollars than it did when you initiated that transaction. 621 00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:45,759 Speaker 1: So let's put that in a real world example, as 622 00:39:45,760 --> 00:39:48,560 Speaker 1: if you were just using your regular currency. I'm going 623 00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:51,480 Speaker 1: to use US dollars because I'm an American citizen. So 624 00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:55,839 Speaker 1: I say, imagine you walk into a coffee shop and 625 00:39:56,000 --> 00:39:58,600 Speaker 1: on the wall you see that a cup of coffee 626 00:39:58,640 --> 00:40:02,840 Speaker 1: is three dollars, and you had three dollars over to 627 00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:04,920 Speaker 1: the cashier to buy you a cup of coffee, and 628 00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:09,440 Speaker 1: you buy your coffee. However, in the process of this, 629 00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:12,400 Speaker 1: as you are buying your coffee, there is a spike 630 00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:15,719 Speaker 1: in inflation, and the three dollars that you handed over 631 00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:20,440 Speaker 1: now has less buying power. It's still three dollar bills, 632 00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:22,359 Speaker 1: but it can buy less than what it used to. 633 00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:26,960 Speaker 1: Maybe now it's worth about a dollar in pre inflation money. 634 00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:29,479 Speaker 1: That would be really bad news for the coffee shop, 635 00:40:29,600 --> 00:40:33,760 Speaker 1: right because they just got one third of the value 636 00:40:33,840 --> 00:40:37,640 Speaker 1: in buying power than what they wanted for They would 637 00:40:37,640 --> 00:40:40,400 Speaker 1: mark their prices up. But this has happened too fast. 638 00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:43,200 Speaker 1: It happened when the price was set at three dollars, 639 00:40:43,640 --> 00:40:45,920 Speaker 1: but they got one dollar of value out of that 640 00:40:45,960 --> 00:40:50,400 Speaker 1: transaction because of inflation. And you would I think the 641 00:40:50,719 --> 00:40:53,320 Speaker 1: value of the coffee itself hasn't changed, right, The coffee 642 00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:56,680 Speaker 1: didn't get worse, didn't get better. It's the same coffee. 643 00:40:57,040 --> 00:41:00,759 Speaker 1: It's worth three dollars of pre inflation, and we can 644 00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:03,240 Speaker 1: say that because you are willing to spend three dollars 645 00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:05,120 Speaker 1: to get it. That's what tells us it was worth 646 00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:07,400 Speaker 1: that much because you were willing to pay it. But 647 00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:10,359 Speaker 1: the value of the currency has changed. This is an 648 00:41:10,400 --> 00:41:13,200 Speaker 1: immediate term problem for the coffee shop. And the next 649 00:41:13,239 --> 00:41:14,839 Speaker 1: time you go and you might look and say, oh, 650 00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:18,600 Speaker 1: now a cup of coffee is nine dollars because a 651 00:41:18,680 --> 00:41:20,879 Speaker 1: dollar is worth a third of what it used to be. 652 00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:25,080 Speaker 1: Now that's a trivial example, it's not realistic for US dollars. 653 00:41:25,840 --> 00:41:28,279 Speaker 1: But that sort of stuff does happen with cryptocurrencies that 654 00:41:28,719 --> 00:41:32,200 Speaker 1: are depending upon the amount of time it takes for 655 00:41:32,239 --> 00:41:35,120 Speaker 1: a transaction to get verified. With bitcoin, you're talking like 656 00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:39,160 Speaker 1: ten minutes, and the value of bitcoin can actually change 657 00:41:39,239 --> 00:41:43,080 Speaker 1: fairly significantly within ten minutes depending upon what is going on. 658 00:41:43,640 --> 00:41:47,280 Speaker 1: So this is one of the reasons why bitcoin doesn't 659 00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:50,759 Speaker 1: work so well as a as a currency, because you 660 00:41:50,760 --> 00:41:54,160 Speaker 1: almost feel punished for for spending it. If if the 661 00:41:54,360 --> 00:41:57,759 Speaker 1: bitcoin is suddenly worth way more than what it was 662 00:41:57,800 --> 00:42:00,400 Speaker 1: when you started the transaction. Then you're like, well, now 663 00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:03,080 Speaker 1: I'm throwing money away because this thing wasn't worth as 664 00:42:03,160 --> 00:42:06,200 Speaker 1: much as what the bitcoin is now worth. Or the 665 00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:09,239 Speaker 1: flip side, if you're selling something and the value of 666 00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:12,200 Speaker 1: bitcoin drops, then suddenly the value of what you're getting 667 00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:16,239 Speaker 1: for selling that thing is different. My whole point here 668 00:42:16,320 --> 00:42:19,280 Speaker 1: is that by building a web on top of the blockchain, 669 00:42:19,320 --> 00:42:23,279 Speaker 1: there are challenges associated with scaling this operation up to 670 00:42:23,360 --> 00:42:28,399 Speaker 1: support a global user base, as well as making sure 671 00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:31,439 Speaker 1: that the transaction process is fast enough so that people 672 00:42:31,480 --> 00:42:34,680 Speaker 1: aren't faced with a system that is very slow to respond. 673 00:42:35,200 --> 00:42:37,160 Speaker 1: That doesn't even get into the challenges that come with 674 00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:41,640 Speaker 1: larger organizations that have to contend with millions of participants, 675 00:42:41,640 --> 00:42:44,319 Speaker 1: all of whom have voting power for the direction of 676 00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:50,120 Speaker 1: the organization itself. Like if these dowels grow truly enormous, 677 00:42:50,680 --> 00:42:53,960 Speaker 1: then the governance is going to become a nightmare. Everyone 678 00:42:54,040 --> 00:42:56,280 Speaker 1: gets a vote, some people have more votes than others, 679 00:42:56,320 --> 00:43:00,200 Speaker 1: and man, it can be really hard to reach consensus. 680 00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:03,439 Speaker 1: Beyond all that, we then have the bad actors out 681 00:43:03,440 --> 00:43:06,239 Speaker 1: there who are using the hype around cryptocurrencies and n 682 00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:09,520 Speaker 1: f t s and Web three and related things to 683 00:43:09,520 --> 00:43:12,240 Speaker 1: to run scams and steal money and try to cash 684 00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:16,480 Speaker 1: in on excitement and enthusiasm with no real intent to 685 00:43:16,680 --> 00:43:19,839 Speaker 1: follow through on that. And these groups are doing more 686 00:43:19,920 --> 00:43:22,759 Speaker 1: than just fleecing people, which is already bad enough, right 687 00:43:22,840 --> 00:43:26,040 Speaker 1: Stealing money is already bad. But what they're also doing 688 00:43:26,120 --> 00:43:29,440 Speaker 1: is damaging the image of these technologies, and if the 689 00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:33,560 Speaker 1: images get damaged enough, folks will withdraw support and then 690 00:43:33,680 --> 00:43:36,640 Speaker 1: stuff will fizzle out, kind of like VR, and then 691 00:43:36,680 --> 00:43:39,320 Speaker 1: maybe find themselves on a much more modest path toward 692 00:43:39,400 --> 00:43:43,400 Speaker 1: maturation if they managed to stick around at all. Ultimately, 693 00:43:44,160 --> 00:43:47,040 Speaker 1: I think there are some interesting concepts at play with 694 00:43:47,080 --> 00:43:52,000 Speaker 1: Web three. I think there is value in the concept 695 00:43:52,040 --> 00:43:54,960 Speaker 1: of Web three, But I also think we're still in 696 00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:57,800 Speaker 1: the early hype cycle, and that while there's no law 697 00:43:58,080 --> 00:44:00,880 Speaker 1: that an emerging technology has to go through these various 698 00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:03,759 Speaker 1: phases that Gardner has identified, there are a lot of 699 00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:07,520 Speaker 1: other technologies that have followed that specific path. So we've 700 00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:10,560 Speaker 1: had a lot of precedents, and I think we that 701 00:44:10,640 --> 00:44:13,320 Speaker 1: if we're to see Web three even accomplish a fraction 702 00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:16,680 Speaker 1: of the promises that we've been told as people have 703 00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:20,640 Speaker 1: hyped up Web three. It's going to require a ton 704 00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:24,520 Speaker 1: of work. Not just a lot of work, but that 705 00:44:24,560 --> 00:44:26,880 Speaker 1: we're going to have to approach this work in a 706 00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:31,840 Speaker 1: very methodical way that holds the people and organizations that 707 00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:36,440 Speaker 1: are building these things accountable. We have to we have 708 00:44:36,480 --> 00:44:40,160 Speaker 1: to also acknowledge the challenges and the pitfalls around us, 709 00:44:40,800 --> 00:44:44,200 Speaker 1: and only then will we have a chance of building 710 00:44:44,280 --> 00:44:48,359 Speaker 1: something that could have an overall benefit for everyone, as 711 00:44:48,400 --> 00:44:51,719 Speaker 1: opposed to just finding a new way to benefit a 712 00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:55,080 Speaker 1: select few at the expense of the many, which is 713 00:44:55,120 --> 00:44:58,799 Speaker 1: where I think we're going. But we could avoid that 714 00:44:59,320 --> 00:45:01,520 Speaker 1: if we're super careful. I just don't have a lot 715 00:45:01,520 --> 00:45:04,680 Speaker 1: of confidence that that is going to happen. And I'm 716 00:45:04,719 --> 00:45:10,959 Speaker 1: skeptical we're going to see a truly useful, beneficial Web three. 717 00:45:11,600 --> 00:45:13,440 Speaker 1: Not that we won't see a Web three at all, 718 00:45:13,520 --> 00:45:16,160 Speaker 1: but that will see a good one. I remain skeptical 719 00:45:16,360 --> 00:45:19,240 Speaker 1: of that. However, I think it's possible that it could happen. 720 00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:22,960 Speaker 1: It's just hard to do, and in my opinion, it 721 00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:27,880 Speaker 1: will be impossible to do unless we continue to ask 722 00:45:28,040 --> 00:45:34,320 Speaker 1: hard questions and rely on critical thinking. That is always 723 00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:39,320 Speaker 1: going to be key. So hope for the best, prepare 724 00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:43,280 Speaker 1: for the worst and question everything is what it comes 725 00:45:43,320 --> 00:45:47,640 Speaker 1: down to, and be compassionate along the way. Some people 726 00:45:47,680 --> 00:45:50,239 Speaker 1: are definitely out there to scam you, but not everyone is. 727 00:45:50,640 --> 00:45:53,840 Speaker 1: And I don't think you should necessarily start off with 728 00:45:53,920 --> 00:45:56,640 Speaker 1: the base assumption that everyone's out to get me and 729 00:45:56,680 --> 00:45:58,759 Speaker 1: I just got to figure out what their angle is. 730 00:45:58,840 --> 00:46:01,640 Speaker 1: I don't think that's necessary. Really the right approach either 731 00:46:02,040 --> 00:46:06,000 Speaker 1: use a little compassion at least until someone proves that 732 00:46:07,080 --> 00:46:10,319 Speaker 1: they aren't they are deserving of that compassion, and then 733 00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:13,480 Speaker 1: I don't know, go a hole hog, knock yourself out. 734 00:46:13,880 --> 00:46:16,919 Speaker 1: All right. That's it for this, And it was top 735 00:46:16,960 --> 00:46:19,440 Speaker 1: of my mind again because south By Southwest is coming up. 736 00:46:19,480 --> 00:46:22,839 Speaker 1: I am going to south By Southwest. I will be there. 737 00:46:22,920 --> 00:46:25,920 Speaker 1: I will talk more about it as we get closer, 738 00:46:26,120 --> 00:46:29,480 Speaker 1: because I you know, details are still being worked out, 739 00:46:29,600 --> 00:46:32,359 Speaker 1: so I want to make sure that those details are 740 00:46:32,360 --> 00:46:36,360 Speaker 1: hammered out and figured out before I mentioned anything, because 741 00:46:36,920 --> 00:46:39,239 Speaker 1: I'd hate to tell folks when and where I'm going 742 00:46:39,280 --> 00:46:42,719 Speaker 1: to be someplace and then it falls through. But once 743 00:46:42,719 --> 00:46:45,960 Speaker 1: those are solidified, I will share them. And I don't 744 00:46:45,960 --> 00:46:47,919 Speaker 1: know what I'm talking about yet. If it's Web three, 745 00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:51,000 Speaker 1: you'll probably here and you're there you'll probably hear something 746 00:46:51,080 --> 00:46:53,120 Speaker 1: very similar to what I said now, except much shorter, 747 00:46:53,440 --> 00:46:57,200 Speaker 1: because I'll be one of several people, and uh, I'll 748 00:46:57,239 --> 00:47:01,680 Speaker 1: try to be more concise. You know me. That's never 749 00:47:01,719 --> 00:47:04,400 Speaker 1: gonna happen. They'll just turn my mic off. It'll be fine, 750 00:47:04,719 --> 00:47:07,279 Speaker 1: all right. If you have suggestions for future topics for 751 00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:09,400 Speaker 1: tech Stuff, reach out to me let me know. You 752 00:47:09,440 --> 00:47:12,120 Speaker 1: can do that on Twitter. Just send a message to 753 00:47:12,239 --> 00:47:15,279 Speaker 1: text stuff hs W. That's the handle we use for 754 00:47:15,320 --> 00:47:17,880 Speaker 1: this show, let me know, or you can download the 755 00:47:17,920 --> 00:47:20,359 Speaker 1: I Heart Radio app. It is free to download. It's 756 00:47:20,400 --> 00:47:23,160 Speaker 1: free to use if you navigate over to tech Stuff 757 00:47:23,160 --> 00:47:25,120 Speaker 1: by typing it into the search bar. You will see 758 00:47:25,160 --> 00:47:27,560 Speaker 1: on the tech stuff page there's this little microphone icon. 759 00:47:28,040 --> 00:47:29,880 Speaker 1: Click on that. You can leave a voice message up 760 00:47:29,920 --> 00:47:31,880 Speaker 1: to thirty seconds and link Let me know what you 761 00:47:31,920 --> 00:47:34,040 Speaker 1: would like to hear in the future, and I'll talk 762 00:47:34,040 --> 00:47:43,440 Speaker 1: to you again really soon. Text Stuff is an I 763 00:47:43,560 --> 00:47:47,080 Speaker 1: heart Radio production. For more podcasts from my heart Radio, 764 00:47:47,400 --> 00:47:50,600 Speaker 1: visit the i Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever 765 00:47:50,680 --> 00:47:52,200 Speaker 1: you listen to your favorite shows.